Short-term association of air pollution and health in Poland. Results from multi-city study

Background

Although time-series studies of the impact of air pollution on mortality are numerous in the literature there is noticeable lack of the results from multi-city studies in Poland. The aim of our analysis is to fill this gap and give estimates based on the most actual data.

Methods

A multi-city ecological time series analysis was carried out. A database contained a daily number of deaths from all causes (excluding external), by sex and age groups (below 65, 65 and more), PM10 and PM2.5 levels as well as meteorological conditions in 3 agglomerations and 19 big cities in Poland. The analysis was performed using generalized additive models. The distributed lag model method was used to investigate the mortality displacement phenomenon.

Results

Two versions of time-series analysis considering the level of air pollution from the current and previous day (acute effect) as well as from the past 30 days (allowing for mortality displacement) in the total population as well as in sub-populations determined by sex and age-group were done in each localization. The pooled effect estimate was calculated based on estimates obtained in each city. The value of the relative risk of death from all causes associated with an increase of air pollution with PM10 and PM2.5 was equal to (respectively) 1.005 (1.003-1.006) and 1.004 (1.002-1.005) for acute effect and 1.016 (1.011-1.021) and 1.021 (1.015-1.026) for delayed pollution effect. Higher relative risks were obtained for females and in the older age group.

Conclusions

A statistically significant short-term effect of air pollution with both PM10 and PM2.5 on mortality was found. The relative risks for PM2.5 were higher than for PM10. Population of females and people aged 65 years and above were more at risk.

Key messages

The existence of the short-term effect of dust air pollution on mortality in Poland has been confirmed. The air pollution effect modification by sex and age was found.

Air pollution and social deprivation as the risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in Poland

Background

The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (I00-I99; ICD-10) is known to be higher in deprived and polluted areas. This Polish district-level study focuses on a possible synergistic effect of deprivation and PM-10 concentration on mortality and hospitalised morbidity due to I00-I99 in 2015-2017.

Methods

This study concerns all 141 districts where PM-10 has been monitored by the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection. The Generalized Linear Model method was used to assess the contribution of PM-10 concentration, the deprivation index (DI, a published synthetic measure of district's social status), the percentage of urban dwellers in the district, and their interactions with PM-10 to age-standardised mortality and hospitalisation rates. Demographic data come from Statistics Poland, and the hospitalisation ones from NIPH-NIH. The analysis was conducted for males, females, their 65+ aged subcohorts, and general population.

Results

For all cohorts, PM-10 pollution significantly contributes to the increase in both hospitalisation and mortality rates (e.g. for males 7% [95%CI: 2-12%] and 12% [3-21%] per 10μg/m3, respectively). The deprivation impact is also significant (e.g. for males p = 0.004 and 0.006), the DI standardised regression coefficients exceed 2-3-fold these of PM-10. The PM-10 effect was found stronger in rural areas than in the urban ones. In the case of hospitalisation, no synergy was found between PM-10 and DI, while negative synergy effect was observed for mortality (e.g. p = 0.030 for males, 0.011 for males aged 65+).

Conclusions

Both deprivation and PM-10 concentration increase hospitalised morbidity and mortality due to I00-I99, however, only for hospitalisation is the effect additive. Unexpectedly, the impact of air pollution on mortality is lower in deprived areas. This effect is even stronger for older population.

Key messages

The impact of social status on mortality and hospitalised morbidity due to cardiovascular diseases in Poland exceeds that of the environmental factor (PM-10 concentration). The negative synergic effect of deprivation index and PM-10 concentration on mortality was identified - the impact of air pollution is lower in deprived areas.

P6365Contrasting the impact of the European (ESC/ESH 2018) versus American (ACC/AHA 2017) high blood pressure clinical practice guidelines in Poland

Background

The 2018 European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension (ESC/ESH) guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension and the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline for the prevention, detection, evaluation, and management of high blood pressure in adults differ in approach to defining stages of hypertension and recommendations for treatment of high blood pressure.

Purpose

To contrast the implications of the ESC/ESH versus ACC/AHA hypertension guidelines among the general population in Poland – a country representing a high CVD risk region in Europe.

Methods

We used data from a representative random sample of 1439 Polish adults aged 40 to 79 from the research program NATPOL 2011. The analysis was weighted in order to reflect the structure of the population in Poland and was stratified by age and gender. We applied the ESC/ESH 10-year SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) and the ACC/AHA ASCVD (atherosclerotic CV disease) risk assessment tools and followed guideline-specific algorithms to detect hypertension and follow recommendations for treatment.

Results

The overall prevalence of hypertension among Polish adults according to the ACC/AHA guideline was 76.9% (95% CI, 74.7–79.0%) versus 51.8% (95% CI, 49.2–54.4%) according to the ESC/ESH guidelines. Application of the ACC/AHA guideline recommendations would result in antihypertensive drug treatment for 63.0% (95% CI, 60.5–65.5%) of Polish adults compared with 46.2% (95% CI, 43.6–48.7%) based on application of the ESC/ESH guidelines (difference 16.8% (95% CI, 14.9–18.8%), table 1).

Table 1 2017 ACC/AHA guideline 2018 ESC/ESH guideline Δ (difference) Hypertension Recommended treatment Hypertension Recommended treatment Hypertension Recommended treatment % (95% CI) % (95% CI) % (95% CI) % (95% CI) % (95% CI) % (95% CI) Age   40–49 (n=391) 63.2 (58.4–68.0) 37.3 (32.6–42.1) 32.0 (27.4–36.6) 21.2 (17.2–25.3) 31.2 (26.6–35.8) 16.1 (12.5–19.8)   50–59 (n=452) 77.7 (73.8–81.5) 61.7 (57.2–66.2) 49.1 (44.5–53.7) 40.0 (35.5–44.6) 28.5 (24.4–32.7) 21.7 (17.9–25.5)   60–69 (n=356) 82.3 (78.3–86.3) 75.3 (70.8–79.8) 62.4 (57.3–67.4) 61.5 (56.5–66.6) 19.9 (15.8–24.1) 13.8 (10.2–17.3)   70–79 (n=231) 90.0 (86.2–93.9) 90.0 (86.2–93.9) 74.5 (68.8–80.1) 76.6 (71.2–82.1) 15.6 (10.9–20.3) 13.4 (9.0–17.8) Gender   Male (n=689) 80.4 (77.4–83.4) 67.5 (64.0–71.0) 52.5 (48.8–56.3) 47.2 (43.4–50.9) 27.9 (24.5–31.2) 20.3 (17.3–23.3)   Female (n=741) 73.6 (70.4–76.7) 58.8 (55.3–62.4) 51.2 (47.6–54.8) 45.2 (41.6–48.8) 22.4 (19.4–25.4) 13.6 (11.2–16.1)

Conclusions

Application of the ACC/AHA guideline would result in a considerable increase in the prevalence and antihypertensive drug treatment of hypertension in Polish adults compared with application of the ESC/ESH guidelines.

Prevalence of diabetes in Poland: a combined analysis of national databases

AIMS

To assess the number of people with diabetes in Poland using combined national sources and to evaluate the usefulness of data from an insurance system for epidemiological purposes.

METHODS

The data were collected from four sources: 1) 2013 all-billing records of the national insurance system comprising people of all age groups undergoing procedures or receiving services in primary healthcare, specialist practices and hospitals and also those receiving drugs; 2) an epidemiological study, NATPOL, that involved the assessment of people with undiagnosed diabetes; 3) the RECEPTOmetr Sequence study on prescriptions; and 4) regional child diabetes registries.

RESULTS

In 2013, 1.76 million people (0.98 million women and 0.79 million men) had medical consultations (coded E10-E14) and 2.13 million people (1.19 million women and 0.94 million men) purchased drugs or strip tests for diabetes. A total of 0.04 million people who used medical services did not buy drugs. In total, the number of people with diabetes in the insurance system was 2.16 million (1.21 million women and 0.95 million men), which corresponds to 6.1% (95% CI 6.11-6.14) of women and 5.1% (95% CI 5.12-5.14) of men. Including undiagnosed cases, the total number of people with diabetes in Poland was 2.68 million in 2013.

CONCLUSION

The estimated prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) in Poland is 6.97%. Data from the national insurance system with full coverage of the population can be treated as a reliable source of information on diseases with well-defined diagnosis and treatment methods, combined with an assessment of the number of undiagnosed individuals.

Fear and distress disorders as predictors of heart disease: A temporal perspective

OBJECTIVE

Few studies have been able to contrast associations of anxiety and depression with heart disease. These disorders can be grouped in fear and distress disorders. Aim of this study was to study the association between fear and distress disorders with subsequent heart disease, taking into account the temporal order of disorders.

METHODS

Twenty household surveys were conducted in 18 countries (n=53791; person years=2,212,430). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview assessed lifetime prevalence and age at onset of disorders, and respondents were categorized into categories based on the presence and timing of fear and distress disorders. Heart disease was indicated by self-report of physician-diagnosed heart disease or self-report of heart attack, together with year of onset. Survival analyses estimated associations between disorder categories and heart disease.

RESULTS

Most respondents with fear or distress disorders had either pure distress or pure fear (8.5% and 7.7% of total sample), while fear preceded distress in the large majority of respondents with comorbid fear and distress (3.8% of total sample). Compared to the "no fear or distress disorder" category, respondents with pure fear disorder had the highest odds of subsequent heart disease (OR:1.8; 95%CI:1.5-2.2; p<0.001) and compared to respondents with pure distress disorder, these respondents were at a significantly increased risk of heart disease (OR:1.3; 95%CI:1.0-1.6; p=0.020).

CONCLUSION

This novel analytic approach indicates that the risk of subsequent self-reported heart disease associated with pure fear disorder is significantly larger than the risk associated with distress disorder. These results should be confirmed in prospective studies using objective measures of heart disease.

Contribution of smoking to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: a study of 14 European countries, 1990-2004

BACKGROUND

Smoking contributes to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, but the extent to which this contribution has changed over time and driven widening or narrowing inequalities in total mortality remains unknown. We studied socioeconomic inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality and their contribution to inequalities in total mortality in 1990-1994 and 2000-2004 in 14 European countries.

METHODS

We collected, harmonised and standardised population-wide data on all-cause and lung-cancer mortality by age, gender, educational and occupational level in 14 European populations in 1990-1994 and 2000-2004. Smoking-attributable mortality was indirectly estimated using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method.

RESULTS

In 2000-2004, smoking-attributable mortality was higher in lower socioeconomic groups in all countries among men, and in all countries except Spain, Italy and Slovenia, among women, and the contribution of smoking to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality varied between 19% and 55% among men, and between -1% and 56% among women. Since 1990-1994, absolute inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality and the contribution of smoking to inequalities in total mortality have decreased in most countries among men, but increased among women.

CONCLUSIONS

In many European countries, smoking has become less important as a determinant of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality among men, but not among women. Inequalities in smoking remain one of the most important entry points for reducing inequalities in mortality.

Long-term mortality after stroke is higher than after myocardial infarction

Mortality caused by coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke (IS) in Poland is still among the highest in Europe. Because acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and IS share major common risk factors, it would be expected that trends in long-term mortality (LTM) and incidence of these two diseases would be similar. Nevertheless, better AMI acute phase therapy and older age of IS patients make post-IS and post-AMI prognosis difficult to compare. The aim of the study was to verify the thesis that, regardless of age and sex, the long-term prognosis is worse for post-IS than for post-AMI subjects. The study was conducted in Polish city-Gdynia (250,000 of inhabitants) among 997 subjects (464 post-IS, 533 post-AMI) randomly selected from all post-IS and post-AMI patients, witch survived hospitalization period in years 2000-2005. The observation period varied from 1 month to 11 years. LTM was shown as standardized mortality ratios. Kaplan-Meyer survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression model were used to compare LTM in post-IS and post-AMI subjects. Post-IS and post-AMI groups did not differ by sex or age of event. Fewer deaths were recorded in post-AMI group (38.8 vs. 51.5 %, OR 0.60, 95 % CI 0.46-0.77). This difference was most evident in males (39.7 vs. 57.8 %, OR 0.48, 95 % CI 0.34-0.66). Kaplan-Meyer estimates showed faster reduction of survival probability in the post-IS males. In Cox regression model presence of IS increased long-term mortality in males. Long-term prognosis was worse for post-IS males in comparison with post-AMI population from Gdynia.

Poland health system review

Since the successful transition to a freely elected parliament and a market economy after 1989, Poland is now a stable democracy and is well represented within political and economic organizations in Europe and worldwide. The strongly centralized health system based on the Semashko model was replaced with a decentralized system of mandatory health insurance, complemented with financing from state and territorial self-government budgets. There is a clear separation of health care financing and provision: the National Health Fund (NFZ) the sole payer in the system is in charge of health care financing and contracts with public and non-public health care providers. The Ministry of Health is the key policy-maker and regulator in the system and is supported by a number of advisory bodies, some of them recently established. Health insurance contributions, borne entirely by employees, are collected by intermediary institutions and are pooled by the NFZ and distributed between the 16 regional NFZ branches. In 2009, Poland spent 7.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on health. Around 70% of health expenditure came from public sources and over 83.5% of this expenditure can be attributed to the (near) universal health insurance. The relatively high share of private expenditure is mostly represented by out-of-pocket (OOP) payments, mainly in the form of co-payments and informal payments. Voluntary health insurance (VHI) does not play an important role and is largely limited to medical subscription packages offered by employers. Compulsory health insurance covers 98% of the population and guarantees access to a broad range of health services. However, the limited financial resources of the NFZ mean that broad entitlements guaranteed on paper are not always available. Health care financing is overall at most proportional: while financing from health care contributions is proportional and budgetary subsidies to system funding are progressive, high OOP expenditures, particularly in areas such as pharmaceuticals, are highly regressive. The health status of the Polish population has improved substantially, with average life expectancy at birth reaching 80.2 years for women and 71.6 years for men in 2009. However, there is still a vast gap in life expectancy between Poland and the western European Union (EU) countries and between life expectancy overall and the expected number of years without illness or disability. Given its modest financial, human and material health care resources and the corresponding outcomes, the overall financial efficiency of the Polish system is satisfactory. Both allocative and technical efficiency leave room for improvement. Several measures, such as prioritizing primary care and adopting new payment mechanisms such as diagnosis-related groups (DRGs), have been introduced in recent years but need to be expanded to other areas and intensified. Additionally, numerous initiatives to enhance quality control and build the required expertise and evidence base for the system are also in place. These could improve general satisfaction with the system, which is not particularly high. Limited resources, a general aversion to cost-sharing stemming from a long experience with broad public coverage and shortages in health workforce need to be addressed before better outcomes can be achieved by the system. Increased cooperation between various bodies within the health and social care sectors would also contribute in this direction. The HiT profiles are country-based reports that provide a detailed description of a health system and of policy initiatives in progress or under development. HiTs examine different approaches to the organization, financing and delivery of health services, and the role of the main actors in health systems; they describe the institutional framework, process, content and implementation of health and health care policies; and highlight challenges and areas that require more in-depth analysis.

Prevalence and risk factors for asthma in Poland: results from the PMSEAD study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of asthma depends on both hereditary and environmental factors. Knowledge of the effects of environmental and congenital factors on the frequency of occurrence of asthma may provide important clues to its pathogenesis and prevention.

OBJECTIVES

The Polish Multicentre Study of Epidemiology of Allergic Diseases was designed to obtain estimates representative of the entire Polish population to assess asthma prevalence and risk factors.

METHODS

Thirty-three areas were selected in 11 regions of Poland. Epidemiologic diagnoses of asthma were verified by a single recognized expert in each region on the basis of collected data as well as available medical documentation, in accordance with the 1997 guidelines of the Global Initiative for Asthma. Ambient air concentrations of sulfur dioxide and suspended particulates (black smoke) were measured directly or estimated by statistical modelling.

RESULTS

Results were obtained for asthma in 16 238 subjects, including 3268 children (aged 3 to 16 years) and 12 970 adults (17 to 80 years). The overall prevalence of asthma was 8.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7%-9.6%) among children and 5.4% (95% CI, 5.0%-5.8%) among adults. Several risk factors for asthma were identified: family history of asthma, black smoke, residential exposure to traffic-related air pollution in both children and adults, and damp or overcrowded housing in adults. No statistically significant association was observed for passive smoking in the home, use of gas stoves, pet ownership, or exposure to ambient air pollution with sulfur dioxide.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that the prevalence of asthma is associated with several host and environmental factors in the Polish population.

Short-term effects of ambient particles on mortality in the elderly: results from 28 cities in the APHEA2 project

Within the framework of the APHEA2 (Air Pollution on Health: a European Approach) project, the effects of ambient particles on mortality among persons > or = 65 yrs were investigated. Daily measurements for particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 microm (PM10) and black smoke (BS), as well as the daily number of deaths among persons > or = 65 yrs of age, from 29 European cities, have been collected. Data on other pollutants and meteorological variables, to adjust for confounding effects and data on city characteristics, to investigate potential effect modification, were also recorded. For individual city analysis, generalised additive models extending Poisson regression, using a locally weighted regression (LOESS) smoother to control for seasonal effects, were applied. To combine individual city results and explore effect modification, second stage regression models were applied. The per cent increase (95% confidence intervals), associated with a 10 microg x m(-3) increase in PM10, in the elderly daily number of deaths was 0.8%, (0.7-0.9%) and the corresponding number for BS was 0.6%, (0.5-0.8%). The effect size was modified by the long-term average levels of nitrogen dioxide (higher levels were associated with larger effects), temperature (larger effects were observed in warmer countries), and by the proportion of the elderly in each city (a larger proportion was associated with higher effects). These results indicate that ambient particles have effects on mortality among the elderly, with relative risks comparable or slightly higher than those observed for total mortality and similar effect modification patterns. The effects among the older persons are of particular importance, since the attributable number of events will be much larger, compared to the number of deaths among the younger population.

Prevalence of insomnia in Poland - results of the National Health Interview Survey

BACKGROUND

Sleep disturbances are one of the most common underdiagnosed and undertreated health problems among the adult population.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of sleeping problems and their relation to sociodemographic characteristics in the Polish population, based on the results of the National Health Interview Survey carried out by the Central Statistical Office in 1996.

METHODS

A stratified sampling scheme, involving two steps, was used. Standardized prevalence ratios (SPRs and their 95% confidence intervals) were calculated. Assessment of sleep-related problems was based on six questions. A representative Polish sample (47 924 non-institutionalized, adult respondents) was interviewed.

RESULTS

Nearly one-fourth of Polish inhabitants suffered from insomnia. The percentage was significantly higher among women (28.1%) than among men (18.1%). The prevalence of insomnia increased with age and was highest in divorced respondents. Respondents of both sexes with higher educational levels suffered from insomnia less often than individuals with lower levels of education. The problem of insomnia applies in a similar degree to inhabitants of both rural and urban regions. About one-twentieth of inhabitants of Poland experienced recent sleep deterioration related to problems. It was associated positively with age, female gender and lower education. About 20% of the population get up not rested in the morning, women significantly more often than men, urban residents more often than rural ones.

CONCLUSIONS

Sleep-related problems are common and the results are comparable with those from other countries. The findings have important implications, such as the necessity of better education of the public community about the identification and possibilities of treatment of sleep disturbance.

Outdoor sulphur dioxide and respiratory symptoms in Czech and Polish school children: a small-area study (SAVIAH). Small-Area Variation in Air Pollution and Health

OBJECTIVES

Air pollution has been linked to respiratory outcomes but controversy persists about its long-term effects. We used a novel technique to estimate the outdoor concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO2) at small-area level to study the long-term effects on respiratory symptoms and disease in children.

METHODS

As part of the international SAVIAH study, parents of 8,013 children aged 7-10 studied in Prague (Czech Republic) and Poznan (Poland) completed a questionnaire covering respiratory health, demographic and socio-economic factors and health behaviours (response rate 91%). This report is based on 6,959 children with complete data. Outdoor SO2 was measured by passive samplers at 80 sites in Poznan and 50 sites in Prague during 2-week campaigns. Concentrations of SO2 at each point (location) in the study areas were estimated from these data by modelling in a geographical information system. The mean of the estimated SO2 concentrations at children's homes and schools was used as an indicator of exposure to outdoor SO2.

RESULTS

The prevalence of respiratory outcomes was similar in both cities. In the pooled data, 12% of children had experienced wheezing/whistling in the past 12 months; 28% had a lifetime prevalence of wheezing/whistling; 14% had a dry cough at night; and 3% had had asthma diagnosed by a doctor. The estimated mean exposure to outdoor SO2 was 80 (range 44-140) microg/m3 in Poznan and 84 (66-97) microg/m3 in Prague. After socio-economic characteristics and other covariates were controlled for, SO2 was associated with wheezing/whistling in the past 12 months (adjusted OR per 50 microg/m3 1.32, 95% CI 1.10-1.57), lifetime prevalence of wheezing/whistling (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.99-1.30), and lifetime prevalence of asthma diagnosed by a doctor (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.01-1.92). The association with dry cough at night did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

In these two Central European cities with relatively high levels of air pollution, small-area based indicators of long-term outdoor winter concentrations of SO2 were associated with wheezing/whistling and with asthma diagnosed by a doctor.

Confounding and effect modification in the short-term effects of ambient particles on total mortality: results from 29 European cities within the APHEA2 project

We present the results of the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach 2 (APHEA2) project on short-term effects of ambient particles on mortality with emphasis on effect modification. We used daily measurements for particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and/or black smoke from 29 European cities. We considered confounding from other pollutants as well as meteorologic and chronologic variables. We investigated several variables describing the cities' pollution, climate, population, and geography as potential effect modifiers. For the individual city analysis, generalized additive models extending Poisson regression, using a smoother to control for seasonal patterns, were applied. To provide quantitative summaries of the results and explain remaining heterogeneity, we applied second-stage regression models. The estimated increase in the daily number of deaths for all ages for a 10 microg/m3 increase in daily PM10 or black smoke concentrations was 0.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.4-0.8%], whereas for the elderly it was slightly higher. We found important effect modification for several of the variables studied. Thus, in a city with low average NO2, the estimated increase in daily mortality for an increase of 10 microg/m3 in PM10 was 0.19 (95% CI = 0.00-0.41), whereas in a city with high average NO2 it was 0.80% (95% CI = 0.67-0.93%); in a relatively cold climate the corresponding effect was 0.29% (95% CI = 0.16-0.42), whereas in a warm climate it was 0.82% (95% CI = 0.69-0.96); in a city with low standardized mortality rate it was 0.80% (95% CI = 0.65-0.95%), and in one with a high rate it was 0.43% (95% CI = 0.24-0.62). Our results confirm those previously reported on the effects of ambient particles on mortality. Furthermore, they show that the heterogeneity found in the effect parameters among cities reflects real effect modification, which is explained by specific city characteristics.

Investigating regional differences in short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in the APHEA project: a sensitivity analysis for controlling long-term trends and seasonality

Short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in eight western and five central-eastern European countries have been reported previously, as part of the APHEA project. One intriguing finding was that the effects were lower in central-eastern European cities. The analysis used sinusoidal terms for seasonal control and polynomial terms for meteorologic variables, but this is a more rigid approach than the currently accepted method, which uses generalized additive models (GAM). We therefore reanalyzed the original data to examine the sensitivity of the results to the statistical model. The data were identical to those used in the earlier analyses. The outcome was the daily total number of deaths, and the pollutants analyzed were black smoke (BS) and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)). The analyses were restricted to days with pollutant concentration < 200 microg/m(3) and < 150 microg/m(3) alternately. We used Poisson regression in a GAM model, and combined individual city regression coefficients using fixed and random-effect models. An increase in BS by 50 microg/m(3) was associated with a 2.2% and 3.1% increase in mortality when analysis was restricted to days < 200 microg/m(3) and < 150 microg/m(3), respectively. The corresponding figures were 5.0% and 5.6% for a similar increase in SO(2). These estimates are larger than the ones published previously: by 69% for BS and 55% for SO(2). The increase occurred only in central-eastern European cities. The ratio of western to central-eastern cities for estimates was reduced to 1.3 for BS (previously 4.8) and 2.6 for SO(2) (previously 4.4). We conclude that part of the heterogeneity in the estimates of air pollution effects between western and central-eastern cities reported in previous publications was caused by the statistical approach used and the inclusion of days with pollutant levels above 150 microg/m(3). However, these results must be investigated further.

The future of chronic diseases

Major chronic diseases continue to be the main health scourge of the most developed countries, have only recently been retreating in frequency in the fledgling market economies, and are becoming dominant in many populous areas of the developing world. The descriptive evidence from the developments of the near past strongly suggests that much of the control outcomes have already been achieved with the existent imperfect causative knowledge. The continuation of desirable trends in major chronic diseases in some places like Central & Eastern Europe, is uncertain within the intermediate time range without gaining more etiological clues, among which the role of medical care is worthy of reconsideration. Other factors can grow in importance, like obesity, which may be freed from the suppressive influence of cigarette smoking to trigger major mass pathologies, like type 2 diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, some cancers etc. The role of social underpriviledge seems recalcitrant, although the part played by social share of biological risk agents may diminish in response to educational persuasion. The remotest destinies of some chronic diseases may depend on the mixture of external and genetic influences ending as predispositions towards some ailments, antecedents of which might have protected their carriers from dangers of the past unfriendly environment, like obesity (or diabetes) against famine, or hypertension against inefficient defense reaction. The resulting medium-range prediction of well-being for inhabitants of more developed world may not be forbidding, since increasing life expectancy needs not be synonymous with disability, and attaining old age does not require excessive sacrifice, beyond reducing number smoked, or preserving decent respiratory volumes.

[Evaluation of prevalence of emotional low self esteem and neurosis in Poland in 1996]

The paper presents psychiatric problems included in national, health interview survey, recommended by the WHO, carried out by the Central Statistical Office in Poland in 1996. Authors are going to estimate the prevalence of a bad frame of mind and neurosis among Polish adult people and try to appoint the relationships between psychiatric disorders and gender and place of residence. We estimated results in 49 provinces. There were significant differences between east and west Poland. People who live in eastern provinces have a worse psychological condition than western. Women have higher rate of these this psychiatric problems. We also found a major correlation between dissemination of a bad frame of mind and neurosis among men and women.

Use of health information systems in the Russian federation in the assessment of environmental health effects

The Russian Federation has made an intensive effort to compile and use information on the environment and human health. In 1996-1997, we evaluated the information that was collected and analyzed on the local (raion), regional (oblast), and federal levels with reference to its usefulness in the assessment of environmental health effects. The Russian Federation maintains standardized nationwide institutions that routinely collect health data in polyclinics and hospitals and then report to the national offices. The allocations of the workforce and the broad range of surveyed health outcomes are extensive, but a lack of systematic control of information quality limits the ability to take full advantage of these efforts. On the other hand, the hierarchical system of data collection has advantages over more decentralized or commercial health systems. A major weakness in the current reporting is the aggregation and transformation of data. Although this may not disturb the generation of health statistics, it seriously limits the use of regional and federal level data in the assessment of health effects of environmental exposures. In spite of limitations, some revised approaches to the analysis of existing data may be both feasible and fruitful. Combining information from routine data and newly collected data is likely to be the most effective way to assess the relationship between environmental exposures and diseases. Although there is a strong and justifiable desire to rapidly translate information of environmental health effects into policy alternatives, at present, it seems more useful to emphasize data quality, completeness, and plans for the use of data.

[Frame of mind among Polish population in research carried out by the Central Statistical Office: initial analysis]

The authors are going to estimate the prevalence poor frame of mind and neurosis among Polish adult people, and try to appoint the relationships between psychiatric disorders and gender, age, civil status, education and maintenance. The questionnaire contains questions about quality of sleep, possibility to fix one's attention on acting, inner tension, self-confidence. Almost 1/4 of women and 18% of men have poor frame of mind. We find very strong and important relationships between neurosis and the poor frame of mind. There were no differences in mental state between people living in towns and villages. The unemployed and the cripples have worse psychological condition than working men. People who are divorced and widowed have statistically more often poor frame of mind and neurosis than the married. We also found a major correlation between poor frame of mind and neurosis and education. Low education is connected with poor psychological condition.

Recommendations for the monitoring of short-term health effects of air pollution: lessons from the APHEA Multi Centre European Study

Accumulating evidence from European cities indicates that current levels of ambient air pollution are likely to be associated with detectable effects on daily mortality and hospital admissions. Public health authorities everywhere are concerned about the possible effects of air pollution on the health of their populations but there are no guidelines for how these effects can efficiently be monitored. Furthermore, decisions about air pollution monitoring tend to be made without reference to the epidemiological requirements of health monitoring. The APHEA project (Air Pollution and Health a European Approach) investigated the short-term health effects of air pollution in 15 European cities. Experience gained in this project provides a basis for recommendations to public health and environmental authorities concerning the requirements for a basic health monitoring system. This paper considers the theoretical and practical aspects of a monitoring system and makes recommendations concerning 1) the minimum data set required, 2) the methods of statistical analysis and presentation and 3) Europe-wide coordination of monitoring.

[SO2 and NO2 air pollution measurement by passive monitors]

Air pollution concentration measurement in Poland are routinely carried on using aspiration methods. This technique required suitable measurement point preparation and its monitoring. During last years passive monitors are used more and more frequently for some air pollutants concentrations measurement. The above mentioned method is recommended when spatial differentiation of air pollution are analized. Results of such measurements carried of in the area of Poznań are presented in this contribution.

Time-series analysis of air pollution and cause-specific mortality

Ten large European cities provided data on daily air pollution as well as mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. We used Poisson autoregressive models that controlled for trend, season, influenza epidemics, and meteorologic influences to assess the short-term effects of air pollution at each city. We then compared and pooled the city-specific results in a meta-analysis. The pooled relative risks of daily deaths from cardiovascular conditions were 1.02 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.04] for a 50 microg/m3 increment in the concentration of black smoke and 1.04 (95% CI = 1.01-1.06) for an increase in sulfur dioxide levels in western European cities. For respiratory diseases, these figures were 1.04 (95% CI = 1.02-1.07) and 1.05 (95% CI = 1.03-1.07), respectively. These associations were not found in the five central European cities. Eight-hour averages of ozone were also moderately associated with daily mortality in western European cities (relative risk = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.00-1.03 for cardiovascular conditions and relative risk = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.02-1.10 for respiratory conditions). Nitrogen dioxide did not show consistent relations with daily mortality. These results are similar to previously published data and add credence to the causal interpretation of these associations at levels of air pollution close to or lower than current European standards.

Duration of protective immunity conferred by maternal tetanus toxoid immunization: further evidence from Matlab, Bangladesh

OBJECTIVES

Although maternal tetanus immunization has been shown to be highly effective in the prevention of neonatal tetanus, unresolved questions remain concerning the required minimum number of doses and the resulting duration of effective immunity. This study examined the duration of effective immunity against neonatal tetanus provided by maternal tetanus immunization.

METHODS

A randomized, double-blind cholera vaccine trial of 41,571 children and nonpregnant adult women carried out in 1974 in the Matlab comparison area of rural Bangladesh provided a unique opportunity to address dose and immunity issues.

RESULTS

Children of women who received either 1 or 2 injections of tetanus toxoid experienced 4- to 14-day mortality levels consistently lower than those of children of unimmunized mothers. Analysis of neonatal-tetanus-related mortality showed that 2 injections of tetanus toxoid provided significant protection for subsequent durations of up to 12 or 13 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The data demonstrate that a limited-dose regimen of maternal tetanus toxoid provides significant and extended protection against the risk of neonatal tetanus death.

Urban air pollution and emergency admissions for asthma in four European cities: the APHEA Project

BACKGROUND

A study was undertaken to assess the combined association between urban air pollution and emergency admissions for asthma during the years 1986-92 in Barcelona, Helsinki, Paris and London.

METHODS

Daily counts were made of asthma admissions and visits to the emergency room in adults (age range 15-64 years) and children (< 15 years). Covariates were short term fluctuations in temperature and humidity, viral epidemics, day of the week effects, and seasonal and secular trends. Estimates from all the cities were obtained for the entire period and separately by warm or cold seasons using Poisson time-series regression models. Combined associations were estimated using meta-analysis techniques.

RESULTS

Daily admissions for asthma in adults increased significantly with increasing ambient levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (relative risk (RR) per 50 micrograms/m3 increase 1.029, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.055) and non-significantly with particles measured as black smoke (RR 1.021, 95% CI 0.985 to 1.059). The association between asthma admissions and ozone (O3) was heterogeneous among cities. In children, daily admissions increased significantly with sulphur dioxide (SO2) (RR 1.075, 95% CI 1.026 to 1.126) and non-significantly with black smoke (RR 1.030, 95% CI 0.979 to 1.084) and NO2, though the latter only in cold seasons (RR 1.080, 95% CI 1.025 to 1.140). No association was observed for O3. The associations between asthma admissions and NO2 in adults and SO2 in children were independent of black smoke.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence of an association between air pollution at current urban levels and emergency room visits for asthma has been extended to Europe. In addition to particles, NO2 and SO2--by themselves or as a constituent of a pollution mixture--may be important in asthma exacerbations in European cities.

Short-term effects of ambient sulphur dioxide and particulate matter on mortality in 12 European cities: results from time series data from the APHEA project. Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach

OBJECTIVES

To carry out a prospective combined quantitative analysis of the associations between all cause mortality and ambient particulate matter and sulphur dioxide.

DESIGN

Analysis of time series data on daily number of deaths from all causes and concentrations of sulphur dioxide and particulate matter (measured as black smoke or particles smaller than 10 microns in diameter (PM10)) and potential confounders.

SETTING

12 European cities in the APHEA project (Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Relative risk of death.

RESULTS

In western European cities it was found that an increase of 50 micrograms/m3 in sulphur dioxide or black smoke was associated with a 3% (95% confidence interval 2% to 4%) increase in daily mortality and the corresponding figure for PM10 was 2% (1% to 3%). In central eastern European cities the increase in mortality associated with a 50 micrograms/m3 change in sulphur dioxide was 0.8% (-0.1% to 2.4%) and in black smoke 0.6% (0.1% to 1.1%). Cumulative effects of prolonged (two to four days) exposure to air pollutants resulted in estimates comparable with the one day effects. The effects of both pollutants were stronger during the summer and were mutually independent.

CONCLUSIONS

The internal consistency of the results in western European cities with wide differences in climate and environmental conditions suggest that these associations may be causal. The long term health impact of these effects is uncertain, but today's relatively low levels of sulphur dioxide and particles still have detectable short term effects on health and further reductions in air pollution are advisable.

Air pollution and daily admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 6 European cities: results from the APHEA project

We investigated the short-term effects of air pollution on hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Europe. As part of a European project (Air Pollution and Health, a European Approach (APHEA)), we analysed data from the cities of Amsterdam, Barcelona, London, Milan, Paris and Rotterdam, using a standardized approach to data eligibility and statistical analysis. Relative risks for daily COPD admissions were obtained using Poisson regression, controlling for: seasonal and other cycles; influenza epidemics; day of the week; temperature; humidity and autocorrelation. Summary effects for each pollutant were estimated as the mean of each city's regression coefficients weighted by the inverse of the variance, allowing for additional between-cities variance, as necessary. For all ages, the relative risks (95% confidence limits (95% CL)) for a 50 microg x m(-3) increase in daily mean level of pollutant (lagged 1-3 days) were (95% CL): sulphur dioxide 1.02 (0.98, 1.06); black smoke 1.04 (1.01, 1.06); total suspended particulates 1.02 (1.00, 1.05), nitrogen dioxide 1.02 (1.00, 1.05) and ozone (8 h) 1.04 (1.02, 1.07). The results confirm that air pollution is associated with daily admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in European cities with widely varying climates. The results for particles and ozone are broadly consistent with those from North America, though the coefficients for particles are substantially smaller. Overall, the evidence points to a causal relationship but the mechanisms of action, exposure response relationships and pollutant interactions remain unclear.

[The assessment of population exposure to atmospheric air pollution]

The air pollution concentrations of SO2 and suspended particulate matter in 1993 in one Polish city Poznan and over entire Poland have been modeled and mapped. The data for Poznan were obtained during special epidemiological study by means of a dense network of passive samples and the data for Poland were obtained from the routine network operated by Sanitary Epidemiological Stations. The modeling employed the kriging method of ARC/INFO computer package. It was found that about 1/3 of Polish population was exposed to the SO2 and/or SPM level that exceeded annual recommended values. In Poznan 25% of children aged 8-9 years were exposed to SO2 level above 100 during heating season 1992/1993.

Short term effect of air pollution on mortality in Polish urban populations--what is different?

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To assess, within the multinational European Community funded APHEA project, the relationship between daily ambient air pollution with sulphur dioxide (SO2) and black smoke (BS) and the daily number of deaths from all causes except external, from cardiovascular diseases, and from respiratory diseases taking into account several possible confounding factors.

DESIGN

Time series analysis with the application of Poisson regression to the counts of daily number of deaths from selected causes over several years. Data were obtained from the computer files of individual death records in four Polish cities. Criteria developed for all the centres participating in the project were applied to the process of model building.

SETTING

Four Polish cities - Cracow (period 1977-89), Lodz (1977-90), Poznan (1983-90), and Wroclaw (1979-89).

SUBJECTS

Permanent residents of the cities who died in a city of residence or in a surrounding region during the study period.

MAIN RESULTS

There were significant positive associations between mortality from all causes excluding external ones and SO2 and BS in Cracow and in Lodz and between mortality from cardiovascular diseases and SO2 in Cracow alone. In other cities the association was either non-significant or significant but in the opposite direction. No significant positive association was found between respiratory deaths and these pollutants.

CONCLUSIONS

Short term effect of air pollution on mortality in Polish urban population cannot be ignored. However, differences observed between the cities suggest that the association may be not so straightforward and therefore there is a need of further studies to identify additional factors that may modify and confound the association.

Short term effects of air pollution on health: a European approach using epidemiologic time series data: the APHEA protocol

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Results from several studies over the past five years have shown that the current levels of pollutants in Europe and North America have adverse short term effects on health. The APHEA project aims to quantifying these in Europe, using standardised methodology. The project protocol and analytical methodology are presented here.

DESIGN

Daily time series data were gathered for several air pollutants (sulphur dioxide; particulate matter, measured as total particles or as the particle fraction with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than a certain cut off, or as black smoke; nitrogen dioxide; and ozone) and health outcomes (the total and cause specific number of deaths and emergency hospital admissions). The data included fulfilled the quality criteria set by the APHEA protocol.

SETTING

Fifteen European cities from 10 different countries with a total population over 25 million.

METHODOLOGY

The APHEA collaborative group decided on a specific methodological procedure to control for confounding effects and evaluate the hypothesis. At the same time there was sufficient flexibility to allow local characteristics to be taken into account. The procedure included modelling of all potential confounding factors (that is, seasonal and long term patterns, meteorological factors, day of the week, holidays, and other unusual events), choosing the "best" air pollution models, and applying diagnostic tools to check the adequacy of the models. The final analysis used autoregressive Poisson models allowing for overdispersion. Effects were reported as relative risks contrasting defined increases in the corresponding pollutant levels. Each participating group applied the analyses to their own data.

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology enabled results from many different European settings to be considered collectively. It represented the best available compromise between feasibility, comparability, and local adaptibility when using aggregated time series data not originally collected for the purpose of epidemiological studies.

Short-term effects of air pollution on health: a European approach using epidemiological time-series data. The APHEA project: background, objectives, design

Recent studies investigating the adverse health effects of air pollution indicate that effects exist around and below the current national and international air quality guidelines and standards. However, the difficult methodological issues involved, and the diversity of analytical techniques so far applied, hinder direct between-study comparability and the drawing of clear conclusions. The APHEA (Air Pollution on Health: European Approach) project is an attempt to provide quantitative estimates of the short-term health effects of air pollution, using an extensive data base from 10 different European countries, which represent various social, environmental and air pollution situations. Within the framework of the project, the methodology of analysing epidemiological time series data, as well as that of performing meta-analysis, are further developed and standardized. Data have been collected from 15 European cities with a total population exceeding 25 million. The exposure data consist of daily measurements of black smoke, sulphur dioxide, suspended particles, nitrogen dioxide and ozone (each available in several, though not all, cities) from already existing monitoring networks. There is substantial variability in air pollution mixtures and air pollutant levels in participating cities. The mean (24 h) levels of SO2 range 27-327 micrograms.m-3 in the winter season, and those of black smoke range 15-292 micrograms.m-3. The mean (1 h) levels of ozone in the summer season range 32-166 micrograms.m-3. The outcome data are daily counts of total and cause-specific deaths and hospital emergency admissions. Data on potential confounders (mainly meteorological and chronological variables) are also used. There is large diversity in the climatic conditions in the different cities.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Short-term effects of air pollution on health: a European approach using epidemiological time-series data. The APHEA project: background, objectives, design

Recent studies investigating the adverse health effects of air pollution indicate that effects exist around and below the current national and international air quality guidelines and standards. However, the difficult methodological issues involved, and the diversity of analytical techniques so far applied, hinder direct between-study comparability and the drawing of clear conclusions. The APHEA (Air Pollution on Health: European Approach) project is an attempt to provide quantitative estimates of the short-term health effects of air pollution, using an extensive data base from 10 different European countries, which represent various social, environmental and air pollution situations. Within the framework of the project, the methodology of analysing epidemiological time series data, as well as that of performing meta-analysis, are further developed and standardized. Data have been collected from 15 European cities with a total population exceeding 25 million. The exposure data consist of daily measurements of black smoke, sulphur dioxide, suspended particles, nitrogen dioxide and ozone (each available in several, though not all, cities) from already existing monitoring networks. There is substantial variability in air pollution mixtures and air pollutant levels in participating cities. The mean (24 h) levels of SO2 range 27-327 micrograms.m-3 in the winter season, and those of black smoke range 15-292 micrograms.m-3. The mean (1 h) levels of ozone in the summer season range 32-166 micrograms.m-3. The outcome data are daily counts of total and cause-specific deaths and hospital emergency admissions. Data on potential confounders (mainly meteorological and chronological variables) are also used. There is large diversity in the climatic conditions in the different cities.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

[Domestic factors and respiratory symptoms in children]

The purpose of the analysis was to evaluate an association between selected factors of home environment and respiratory symptoms (wheezing/whistling) and asthma diagnosed by physician in 4333 children of age 7-8 years in Poznań. The data were collected within the scope of the EU funded multinational SAVIAH study. It was found that presence of the symptoms as well as asthma were significantly associated with presence of damp spots and/or mould at home and disturbance by traffic fumes and/or noise at home. The association of respiratory symptoms with ETS and presence of pets was less clear.

[Temporal and spatial analysis of hospitalization for selected diseases in Poland due to certain environmental factors. II. Spatial analysis of environmental differences]

The present study was aimed at assessment of a degree of regional differences in hospitalized morbidity in Poland for some of diseases considered to be related to environmental contamination and its relationship with general environmental characteristic of the regions. The performed analysis has shown that however in recent years there have been substantial differences in the discharge rates between provinces of Poland, these differences are not well explained by differences in general environmental factors. The possible reasons of these results have been discussed.

Transport across the nuclear envelope: enigmas and explanations

The transport of molecules across the nuclear envelope plays a central role in the metabolism of the cell. Significant advances in three major areas highlight the limits of our current knowledge and point to the prospect of exciting future developments. Firstly, findings that ions and small proteins do not diffuse freely into the nucleus call into question the current views of nuclear envelope permeability. Secondly, indications that nuclear protein import can be regulated in conjunction with the cell cycle and development have been confirmed by the clear demonstration of regulated nuclear entry of specific transcription factors and morphogens. Thirdly, identification and characterisation of candidate receptor proteins indicates that the recognition of the nuclear targeting sequence occurs in the cytoplasm, suggesting that a different recognition event occurs at the nuclear pore.

Excess female deaths among rural Bangladeshi children: an examination of cause-specific mortality and morbidity

Excess female over male mortality during childhood, well known in the northern Indian subcontinent, is particularly marked in rural Bangladesh. While the determinants of this phenomenon and the respective roles of cultural and economic factors are still debated, little data exist on cause-specific mortality, to identify the specific causes of death producing this differential. In 1986-1987 in Matlab, a study area under intensive demographic surveillance in rural Bangladesh, female children aged 1 to 4 years had a risk of dying 1.8 times higher than male children (95% confidence interval: 1.5-2.1). The causes of death which contributed the most to this excess female mortality were severe malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases. The risks of dying were 2.5 and 2.1 higher for female than for male children for these two causes, respectively. Possible mechanisms are examined using data on incidence of selected diseases and admission rates to curative facilities. There was no gender difference in incidence of severe diarrhoeal diseases, but female children with diarrhoea were taken to the hospital significantly less often than male children. In contrast, there was a higher incidence of severe malnutrition in female than male children, and a lower rate of hospital admission. The data suggest that gender differentials in mortality may not be as much affected by preventive measures against diarrhoea as by efforts to provide equivalent curative services to female and male children.

Pattern of diarrhoeal deaths during 1966-1987 in a demographic surveillance area in rural Bangladesh

Death pattern was analysed in relation to age, sex, seasonality and yearly variation during 1966-1987 in Matlab upazila of Chandpur district, Bangladesh. The overall death rate due to diarrhoeal diseases and other causes fluctuated during the period. Diarrhoeal death rate varied between 2.0 and 4.0 per 1,000 population except during the war and famine periods of 1971 and 1974-1975 respectively when it was two times higher over the preceding period of five years' average. On an average, more than 20% of all deaths appeared to be related to diarrhoea. The relative importance of diarrhoea as the cause of death did not diminish over time. Persistent diarrhoea caused more deaths than acute diarrhoea. At all times the highest diarrhoeal mortality rate was shown in children aged 1-4 years, specially in girls. Women aged under 20 years had a higher rate of diarrhoeal deaths than the men of similar age. November was the peak month of diarrhoeal deaths in this rural area. Introduction of the Maternity, Child Health-Family Planning (MCH-FP) services had significant impact of reducing diarrhoeal deaths as well as deaths from other causes.

Perinatal mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh: a community-based study

Perinatal deaths, comprising stillbirths and deaths during the first week of life, were monitored over the eight-year period 1979 to 1986 in a rural Bangladeshi population of 196,000. The perinatal mortality rate was 75 per 1000 total births. The rate was 13% higher in males than females. Stillbirth and early neonatal mortality rates were 37 and 38 per 1000 total births, respectively. The major causes of perinatal deaths are presented, as well as some of the maternal determinants. During the period under study, perinatal mortality declined regularly and significantly over time in an area covered by an intensive Family Planning and Health Services programme, but not in the adjacent control area. This raises the issue of the impact of such a programme upon perinatal mortality, and the need to include a strong maternity care component into primary healthcare strategies if further reductions of perinatal mortality are to be achieved.

The effect of maternal and child health and family planning services on mortality: is prevention enough?

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact on mortality of a child survival strategy, mostly based on preventive interventions.

DESIGN

Cross sectional comparison of cause specific mortality in two communities differing in the type, coverage, and quality of maternal and child health and family planning services. In the intervention area the services were mainly preventive, community based, and home delivered.

SUBJECTS

Neonates, infants, children, and mothers in two contiguous areas of rural Bangladesh.

INTERVENTIONS

In the intervention area community health workers provided advice on contraception and on feeding and weaning babies; distributed oral rehydration solution, vitamin A tablets for children under 5, and ferrous fumarate and folic acid during pregnancy; immunised children; trained birth attendants in safe delivery and when to refer; treated minor ailments; and referred seriously ill people and malnourished children to a central clinic.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall and age and cause specific death rates, obtained by a multiple step "verbal autopsy" process.

RESULTS

During the two years covered by the study overall mortality was 17% lower among neonates, 9% lower among infants aged 1-5 months, 30% lower among children aged 6-35 months, and 19% lower among women living in the study area than in those living in the control area. These differences were mainly due to fewer deaths from neonatal tetanus, measles, persistent diarrhoea with severe malnutrition among children, and fewer abortions among women.

CONCLUSIONS

The programme was effective in preventing some deaths. In addition to preventive components such as tetanus and measles immunisation, health and nutrition education, and family planning, curative services are needed to reduce mortality further.

Impact of measles vaccination on childhood mortality in rural Bangladesh

This study examines the impact of measles vaccination on childhood mortality, based on longitudinal data from the Matlab maternal and child health/family planning programme in rural Bangladesh. It analyses the mortality experience of 8135 vaccinated and 8135 randomly matched nonvaccinated children aged 9-60 months, who were observed from March 1982 to October 1985. The results indicate that measles vaccination had a pronounced impact on both short- and long-term survival--the mortality rates for vaccinated children were as much as 46% less than those for nonvaccinated children. Immunization of children aged up to 3 years with measles vaccine appears to improve significantly their subsequent chances of survival. The findings underscore the need to give greater priority to measles vaccination within primary health care programmes in settings such as rural Bangladesh.

Malnutrition and child mortality: are socioeconomic factors important?

The influences of household economic condition, maternal education, sex, and nutritional status of children on mortality were examined using multivariate analytical techniques. Weights of around 1700 children aged 2 60 months in five villages of Matlab, Bangladesh, were taken during the first half of 1981. The children were followed for 18 months and their survival was recorded. The severely malnourished children had a risk of death nine times that of their counterparts with better nutritional status. Female children had a higher risk of death than the males. Mother's education and economic condition of household also showed negative relationships with the risk of death, but the effect of mother's education was modified by economic condition and sex of the children.

Anthropometric indicators and risk of death

Six anthropometric indicators based on weight, height, arm circumference (AC), and age were examined to predict mortality risk of children aged 12-59 mo in a rural area of Teknaf, Bangladesh. In the period 1981-85, 9861 measurements at 6-mo intervals were made on 2449 children. For all indices mortality risk was greater in the first 3 mo than in the second 3 mo in severely malnourished children. Mortality discriminating power of the indicators in terms of sensitivity and specificity was highest for AC and AC for age and lowest for weight-for-height. Logistic regression analysis showed that the predictive power of weight-, height-, and age-based indicators improved after adding AC whereas predictive power of AC did not improve after adding weight-based indicators. The relative risk of death in children with ACs measuring less than or equal to 120 mm was 12 times higher than in those whose ACs measured greater than 140 mm.

Acute lower respiratory infections: a major cause of death in children in Bangladesh

The importance of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) as a cause of death in children was estimated using systematically collected demographic data on the population of the Teknaf area of southern Bangladesh. Of 1349 children aged 1-59 months who died between 1 January 1982 and 31 December 1985, ALRI was diagnosed by verbal autopsy in 390 (29%) and was the leading cause of death. ALRI mortality rates were highest in the youngest age groups (136/1000 for those less than or equal to 5 months) and decreased in older children (16/1000 for those 3-4 years old). Half of all fatal ALRI cases occurred in children less than 6 months old. In older children, ALRI-associated deaths tended to occur during the months October to January, while deaths in infants tended to follow the seasonal birth pattern. Significant predisposing factors for fatal ALRI were malnutrition and measles, detected, respectively, in 18% and 8% of children who died from ALRI. This study emphasizes the importance of ALRI as a major cause of death in developing countries and suggests that interventions to reduce childhood mortality are needed and should be targeted to specific age groups at risk.

Epidemiology and cause of deaths among women in rural Bangladesh

A total of 542 women aged 15 to 44 years died during the 10-year period 1976 to 1985 in the control area of Matlab, an area with a population of 90,000, representative of many other rural areas of southern Bangladesh. The corresponding age-specific mortality rate was 290 per 100,000 women 15-44 years. These deaths have been analysed retrospectively, using information collected through the Demographic Surveillance System set up by the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) and verbal autopsies conducted in the homes. Of these deaths, 175 (32%) were due to infectious diseases, 163 (30%) to direct obstetric complications, 67 (12%) to injuries, and the remaining 26% to other causes. Cause-specific and proportionate mortality rates showed a positive association with age for deaths due to infectious diseases, non-infectious diseases and unspecified causes, and an inverse association with age for deaths due to injuries. These rates showed a peak in the intermediate age group 25 to 34 years for deaths due to direct obstetric causes. No consistent trends were visible when annual rates were studied over time. Prior to death, 42% of the women were attended by traditional practitioners, and 33% were not attended at all. Demographic impact is discussed, emphasizing the contribution of obstetric causes to overall mortality. Priorities for health policy implications are proposed, focusing upon a strong maternity care programme, and improved availability of female health personnel, in the context of the socio-cultural constraints imposed on women in poor rural areas.

Mothers' personal and domestic hygiene and diarrhoea incidence in young children in rural Bangladesh

This study examines the effect of maternal personal and domestic hygiene on the incidence of diarrhoea in children aged 6-23 months from rural areas around Teknaf, Bangladesh. The intervention area received augmented water supply through handpumps and health education while the control area received no project inputs. From July 1980 to June 1983, diarrhoea incidence was recorded weekly while mothers' personal and domestic hygiene was observed yearly. Annual incidence of diarrhoea in 314 children from the intervention area and 309 children from the control area was analysed in relation to maternal personal and domestic hygiene, controlling for education and occupation of household head and household size. Results show that, in both areas, use of handpump water for drinking and washing, removal of child's faeces from the yard, and maternal handwashing before handling food and after defaecation of self and child, observed together, decreased yearly diarrhoea incidence in children by more than 40% compared to children living in households where none or only one of these practices was observed.