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Pereira HM, Martins IS, Rosa IMD, Kim H, Leadley P, Popp A, van Vuuren DP, Hurtt G, Quoss L, Arneth A, Baisero D, Bakkenes M, Chaplin-Kramer R, Chini L, Di Marco M, Ferrier S, Fujimori S, Guerra CA, Harfoot M, Harwood TD, Hasegawa T, Haverd V, Havlík P, Hellweg S, Hilbers JP, Hill SLL, Hirata A, Hoskins AJ, Humpenöder F, Janse JH, Jetz W, Johnson JA, Krause A, Leclère D, Matsui T, Meijer JR, Merow C, Obersteiner M, Ohashi H, De Palma A, Poulter B, Purvis A, Quesada B, Rondinini C, Schipper AM, Settele J, Sharp R, Stehfest E, Strassburg BBN, Takahashi K, Talluto MV, Thuiller W, Titeux N, Visconti P, Ware C, Wolf F, Alkemade R. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. Science 2024; 384:458-465. [PMID: 38662818 DOI: 10.1126/science.adn3441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 05/04/2024]
Abstract
Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henrique M Pereira
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- BIOPOLIS, CIBIO/InBIO, Universidade do Porto, Vairão 4485-661, Portugal
| | - Inês S Martins
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Isabel M D Rosa
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- Kenvue Portugal, JNTL Consumer Health Ltd, Porto Salvo 2740-262, Portugal
| | - HyeJin Kim
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Paul Leadley
- Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Gif-sur-Yvette 91190, France
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany
- Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen D-37213, Germany
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3584 CB, Netherlands
| | - George Hurtt
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Luise Quoss
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
| | - Daniele Baisero
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
- KBA Secretariat, BirdLife International, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Michel Bakkenes
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Louise Chini
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
| | | | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Katsura Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto-city 615-8540, Japan
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra 3004-530, Portugal
| | - Michael Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Thomas D Harwood
- CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
- Ritsumeikan University, Shiga 525-8577, Japan
| | | | - Petr Havlík
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Stefanie Hellweg
- Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich 8093, Switzerland
| | - Jelle P Hilbers
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands
| | - Samantha L L Hill
- United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Akiko Hirata
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany
| | - Jan H Janse
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen 6700AB, Netherlands
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Justin A Johnson
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
- Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Freising 85354, Germany
| | - David Leclère
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Tetsuya Matsui
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
| | - Johan R Meijer
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Cory Merow
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
| | - Michael Obersteiner
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Haruka Ohashi
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
| | - Adriana De Palma
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Benjamin Quesada
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
- "Interactions Climate-Ecosystems (ICE)" Research Group, Earth System Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá DC 63B-48, Colombia
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
| | - Aafke M Schipper
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands
| | - Josef Settele
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Laguna 4031, Philippines
| | - Richard Sharp
- Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Bernardo B N Strassburg
- re.green, Rio de Janeiro 22470-060, Brazil
- Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, Brazil
| | - Kiyoshi Takahashi
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Matthew V Talluto
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck 6020, Austria
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, LECA, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Grenoble F-38000, France
| | - Nicolas Titeux
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg
| | - Piero Visconti
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London C1E6BT, UK
| | | | - Florian Wolf
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
| | - Rob Alkemade
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Earth System and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen 6708PB Netherlands
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2
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Harmsen M, Tabak C, Höglund-Isaksson L, Humpenöder F, Purohit P, van Vuuren D. Uncertainty in non-CO 2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2949. [PMID: 37268633 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38577-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing 'optimistic', 'default' and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC uncertainty translates into a large projected range in relative NCGG reduction (40-58%), carbon budget (±120 Gt CO2) and policy costs (±16%). Partly, the MAC uncertainty signifies a gap that could be bridged by human efforts, but largely it indicates uncertainty in technical limitations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathijs Harmsen
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands.
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584, CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
| | - Charlotte Tabak
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Lena Höglund-Isaksson
- Pollution Management Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, POBox 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Pallav Purohit
- Pollution Management Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Detlef van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584, CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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3
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von Jeetze PJ, Weindl I, Johnson JA, Borrelli P, Panagos P, Molina Bacca EJ, Karstens K, Humpenöder F, Dietrich JP, Minoli S, Müller C, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A. Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2515. [PMID: 37193693 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38043-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 05/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes and affect other key regulating nature's contributions to people (NCP) that sustain land productivity outside conservation priority areas. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show that ambitious carbon-focused land restoration action and the enlargement of protected areas alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends in landscape heterogeneity, pollination supply, and soil loss. However, we also find that these actions could be combined with dedicated interventions that support critical NCP and biodiversity conservation outside of protected areas. In particular, our models indicate that conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes could primarily be achieved by spatially relocating cropland outside conservation priority areas, without additional carbon losses from land-use change, primary land conversion or reductions in agricultural productivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick José von Jeetze
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.
- Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Isabelle Weindl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Justin Andrew Johnson
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1940 Buford Ave, Saint Paul, MN, 55105, USA
| | - Pasquale Borrelli
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Department of Science, Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy
| | - Panos Panagos
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), IT-21027, Italy
| | - Edna J Molina Bacca
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Kristine Karstens
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jan Philipp Dietrich
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
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4
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Mishra A, Humpenöder F, Churkina G, Reyer CPO, Beier F, Bodirsky BL, Schellnhuber HJ, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A. Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities. Nat Commun 2022; 13:4889. [PMID: 36042197 PMCID: PMC9427734 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2021] [Accepted: 07/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Using engineered wood for construction has been discussed for climate change mitigation. It remains unclear where and in which way the additional demand for wooden construction material shall be fulfilled. Here we assess the global and regional impacts of increased demand for engineered wood on land use and associated CO2 emissions until 2100 using an open-source land system model. We show that if 90% of the new urban population would be housed in newly built urban mid-rise buildings with wooden constructions, 106 Gt of additional CO2 could be saved by 2100. Forest plantations would need to expand by up to 149 Mha by 2100 and harvests from unprotected natural forests would increase. Our results indicate that expansion of timber plantations for wooden buildings is possible without major repercussions on agricultural production. Strong governance and careful planning are required to ensure a sustainable transition to timber cities even if frontier forests and biodiversity hotspots are protected.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abhijeet Mishra
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany. .,Humboldt University of Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Galina Churkina
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Christopher P O Reyer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Felicitas Beier
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.,Humboldt University of Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany
| | - Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.,World Vegetable Center, P.O. Box 42, Shanhua, Tainan, 74199, Taiwan
| | - Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.,Humboldt University of Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association, P.O.Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
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Humpenöder F, Bodirsky BL, Weindl I, Lotze-Campen H, Linder T, Popp A. Projected environmental benefits of replacing beef with microbial protein. Nature 2022; 605:90-96. [PMID: 35508780 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04629-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2021] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Ruminant meat provides valuable protein to humans, but livestock production has many negative environmental impacts, especially in terms of deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, water use and eutrophication1. In addition to a dietary shift towards plant-based diets2, imitation products, including plant-based meat, cultured meat and fermentation-derived microbial protein (MP), have been proposed as means to reduce the externalities of livestock production3-7. Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have estimated substantial environmental benefits of MP, produced in bioreactors using sugar as feedstock, especially compared to ruminant meat3,7. Here we present an analysis of MP as substitute for ruminant meat in forward-looking global land-use scenarios towards 2050. Our study complements LCA studies by estimating the environmental benefits of MP within a future socio-economic pathway. Our model projections show that substituting 20% of per-capita ruminant meat consumption with MP globally by 2050 (on a protein basis) offsets future increases in global pasture area, cutting annual deforestation and related CO2 emissions roughly in half, while also lowering methane emissions. However, further upscaling of MP, under the assumption of given consumer acceptance, results in a non-linear saturation effect on reduced deforestation and related CO2 emissions-an effect that cannot be captured with the method of static LCA.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.,World Vegetable Center, Shanhua, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Isabelle Weindl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.,Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Tomas Linder
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
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6
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Roe S, Streck C, Beach R, Busch J, Chapman M, Daioglou V, Deppermann A, Doelman J, Emmet‐Booth J, Engelmann J, Fricko O, Frischmann C, Funk J, Grassi G, Griscom B, Havlik P, Hanssen S, Humpenöder F, Landholm D, Lomax G, Lehmann J, Mesnildrey L, Nabuurs G, Popp A, Rivard C, Sanderman J, Sohngen B, Smith P, Stehfest E, Woolf D, Lawrence D. Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:6025-6058. [PMID: 34636101 PMCID: PMC9293189 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2020] [Revised: 08/16/2021] [Accepted: 08/19/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2 eq) land-based mitigation is 8-13.8 GtCO2 eq yr-1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75-4.8 GtCO2eq yr-1 ) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Roe
- Department of Environmental SciencesUniversity of VirginiaCharlottesvilleVirginiaUSA
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
| | - Charlotte Streck
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
- International PoliticsUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - Robert Beach
- Environmental Engineering and Economics DivisionRTI InternationalResearch Triangle ParkNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Jonah Busch
- Conservation InternationalArlingtonVirginiaUSA
| | - Melissa Chapman
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and ManagementUniversity of California BerkeleyBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Vassilis Daioglou
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable DevelopmentUtrecht UniversityUtrechtthe Netherlands
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe Haguethe Netherlands
| | - Andre Deppermann
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
| | - Jonathan Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe Haguethe Netherlands
| | - Jeremy Emmet‐Booth
- New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research CentrePalmerston NorthNew Zealand
| | - Jens Engelmann
- Department of Agricultural and Applied EconomicsUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Oliver Fricko
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
| | | | - Jason Funk
- Land Use and Climate Knowledge InitiativeChicagoIllinoisUSA
| | | | | | - Petr Havlik
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
| | - Steef Hanssen
- Department of Environmental ScienceRadboud University NijmegenNijmegenThe Netherlands
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | - David Landholm
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | - Guy Lomax
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
| | - Johannes Lehmann
- Soil and Crop ScienceSchool of Integrative Plant ScienceCollege of Agriculture and Life ScienceCornell UniversityIthacaNew YorkUSA
| | - Leah Mesnildrey
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
- Sciences Po ParisParis School of International Affairs (PSIA)ParisFrance
| | - Gert‐Jan Nabuurs
- Wageningen Environmental ResearchWageningen University and ResearchWageningenthe Netherlands
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management GroupWageningen UniversityWageningenthe Netherlands
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | | | | | - Brent Sohngen
- Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development EconomicsOhio State UniversityColumbusOhioUSA
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of AberdeenAberdeenUK
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe Haguethe Netherlands
| | - Dominic Woolf
- Soil and Crop ScienceSchool of Integrative Plant ScienceCollege of Agriculture and Life ScienceCornell UniversityIthacaNew YorkUSA
| | - Deborah Lawrence
- Department of Environmental SciencesUniversity of VirginiaCharlottesvilleVirginiaUSA
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7
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Luderer G, Pehl M, Arvesen A, Gibon T, Bodirsky BL, de Boer HS, Fricko O, Hejazi M, Humpenöder F, Iyer G, Mima S, Mouratiadou I, Pietzcker RC, Popp A, van den Berg M, van Vuuren D, Hertwich EG. Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies. Nat Commun 2019; 10:5229. [PMID: 31745077 PMCID: PMC6864079 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13067-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2019] [Accepted: 10/14/2019] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain but tend to increase, chiefly due to land requirements for bioenergy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gunnar Luderer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.
- Chair of Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Michaja Pehl
- Chair of Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623, Berlin, Germany
| | - Anders Arvesen
- Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Høgskoleringen 5, 7034, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Thomas Gibon
- Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Høgskoleringen 5, 7034, Trondheim, Norway
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology (LIST), 41 rue du Brill, L-4422, Belvaux, Luxembourg
| | - Benjamin L Bodirsky
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Harmen Sytze de Boer
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Oliver Fricko
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Mohamad Hejazi
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court Suite 3500, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Gokul Iyer
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court Suite 3500, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Silvana Mima
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP, GAEL, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Ioanna Mouratiadou
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Robert C Pietzcker
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Maarten van den Berg
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Detlef van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Edgar G Hertwich
- Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Høgskoleringen 5, 7034, Trondheim, Norway
- Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
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8
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Pikaar I, Matassa S, Bodirsky BL, Weindl I, Humpenöder F, Rabaey K, Boon N, Bruschi M, Yuan Z, van Zanten H, Herrero M, Verstraete W, Popp A. Decoupling Livestock from Land Use through Industrial Feed Production Pathways. Environ Sci Technol 2018; 52:7351-7359. [PMID: 29923399 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b00216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 70] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
One of the main challenges for the 21st century is to balance the increasing demand for high-quality proteins while mitigating environmental impacts. In particular, cropland-based production of protein-rich animal feed for livestock rearing results in large-scale agricultural land-expansion, nitrogen pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we propose and analyze the long-term potential of alternative animal feed supply routes based on industrial production of microbial proteins (MP). Our analysis reveals that by 2050, MP can replace, depending on socio-economic development and MP production pathways, between 10-19% of conventional crop-based animal feed protein demand. As a result, global cropland area, global nitrogen losses from croplands and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions can be decreased by 6% (0-13%), 8% (-3-8%), and 7% (-6-9%), respectively. Interestingly, the technology to industrially produce MP at competitive costs is directly accessible for implementation and has the potential to cause a major structural change in the agro-food system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ilje Pikaar
- School of Civil Engineering , The University of Queensland , Brisbane , Queensland 4072 , Australia
- The University of Queensland , Advanced Water Management Centre (AWMC) , Queensland St Lucia 4072 , Australia
| | - Silvio Matassa
- Center for Microbial Ecology and Technology (CMET) , Ghent University , Coupure Links 653 , 9000 Gent , Belgium
- Avecom NV, Industrieweg 122P , 9032 Wondelgem , Belgium
| | | | - Isabelle Weindl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , 14412 Potsdam , Germany
| | | | - Korneel Rabaey
- Center for Microbial Ecology and Technology (CMET) , Ghent University , Coupure Links 653 , 9000 Gent , Belgium
| | - Nico Boon
- Center for Microbial Ecology and Technology (CMET) , Ghent University , Coupure Links 653 , 9000 Gent , Belgium
| | | | - Zhiguo Yuan
- The University of Queensland , Advanced Water Management Centre (AWMC) , Queensland St Lucia 4072 , Australia
| | - Hannah van Zanten
- Department of Animal Sciences , Wageningen University & Research , 6708 PB Wageningen , Netherlands
| | - Mario Herrero
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation , St Lucia , Australia
| | - Willy Verstraete
- Center for Microbial Ecology and Technology (CMET) , Ghent University , Coupure Links 653 , 9000 Gent , Belgium
- Avecom NV, Industrieweg 122P , 9032 Wondelgem , Belgium
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , 14412 Potsdam , Germany
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9
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Krause A, Pugh TAM, Bayer AD, Li W, Leung F, Bondeau A, Doelman JC, Humpenöder F, Anthoni P, Bodirsky BL, Ciais P, Müller C, Murray-Tortarolo G, Olin S, Popp A, Sitch S, Stehfest E, Arneth A. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:3025-3038. [PMID: 29569788 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2017] [Accepted: 01/23/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Anita D Bayer
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Wei Li
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Felix Leung
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Alberte Bondeau
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (Mediterranean Institute for Biodiversity and Ecology IMBE), Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | | | - Peter Anthoni
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | | | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Catedra CONACyT comisionado al Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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10
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Kreidenweis U, Humpenöder F, Kehoe L, Kuemmerle T, Bodirsky BL, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A. Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:3199-3213. [PMID: 29665157 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2017] [Revised: 03/28/2018] [Accepted: 04/03/2018] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little is known on how future land-use change may encroach on remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels of future agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic land-use model, we assessed potential future losses of natural vegetation with a focus on how these may threaten biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. We analysed agricultural expansion under proactive and reactive biodiversity protection scenarios, and for different rates of pasture intensification. We found growing food demand to lead to a significant expansion of cropland at the expense of pastures and natural vegetation. In our reference scenario, global cropland area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 and 2050, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Grazing intensification was a main determinant of future land-use change. In Africa, higher rates of pasture intensification resulted in smaller losses of natural vegetation, and reduced pressure on biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. Investments into raising pasture productivity in conjunction with proactive land-use planning appear essential in Africa to reduce further losses of areas with high conservation value. In Latin America, in contrast, higher pasture productivity resulted in increased livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can reduce the land savings of pasture intensification. Reactive protection of sensitive areas significantly reduced the conversion of natural ecosystems in Latin America. We conclude that protection strategies need to adapt to region-specific trade positions. In regions with a high involvement in international trade, area-based conservation measures should be preferred over strategies aimed at increasing pasture productivity, which by themselves might not be sufficient to protect biodiversity effectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ulrich Kreidenweis
- Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
- Department Technology Assessment and Substance Cycles, Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB), Potsdam, Germany
- School VI - Planning Building Environment, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Laura Kehoe
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Tobias Kuemmerle
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Research Domain Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Alexander Popp
- Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
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11
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Seneviratne SI, Wartenburger R, Guillod BP, Hirsch AL, Vogel MM, Brovkin V, van Vuuren DP, Schaller N, Boysen L, Calvin KV, Doelman J, Greve P, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Krisztin T, Mitchell D, Popp A, Riahi K, Rogelj J, Schleussner CF, Sillmann J, Stehfest E. Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2018; 376:20160450. [PMID: 29610382 PMCID: PMC5897823 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/31/2018] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Richard Wartenburger
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Benoit P Guillod
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
- Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Annette L Hirsch
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Martha M Vogel
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Victor Brovkin
- Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven 3720 AH, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Lena Boysen
- Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Katherine V Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD 20740, USA
| | - Jonathan Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | - Peter Greve
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Petr Havlik
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Tamas Krisztin
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Daniel Mitchell
- School of Geographical Sciences, University Road, Clifton, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Keywan Riahi
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Climate Analytics, Ritterstrasse 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven 3720 AH, The Netherlands
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12
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Alexander P, Prestele R, Verburg PH, Arneth A, Baranzelli C, Batista E Silva F, Brown C, Butler A, Calvin K, Dendoncker N, Doelman JC, Dunford R, Engström K, Eitelberg D, Fujimori S, Harrison PA, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Holzhauer S, Humpenöder F, Jacobs-Crisioni C, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Lavalle C, Lenton T, Liu J, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Powell T, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Stehfest E, Steinbuks J, Tabeau A, van Meijl H, Wise MA, Rounsevell MDA. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:767-781. [PMID: 27474896 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2016] [Revised: 07/21/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
- Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK
| | - Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Claudia Baranzelli
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Filipe Batista E Silva
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Calum Brown
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Adam Butler
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Nicolas Dendoncker
- Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, B-5000, Belgium
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Dunford
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden
| | - David Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Sascha Holzhauer
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Chris Jacobs-Crisioni
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Page Kyle
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Carlo Lavalle
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Tim Lenton
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Jiayi Liu
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Tom Powell
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Ronald D Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, D-34109, Germany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | | | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Marshall A Wise
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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13
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Stevanović M, Popp A, Bodirsky BL, Humpenöder F, Müller C, Weindl I, Dietrich JP, Lotze-Campen H, Kreidenweis U, Rolinski S, Biewald A, Wang X. Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices. Environ Sci Technol 2017; 51:365-374. [PMID: 27981847 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b04291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miodrag Stevanović
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
- Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin) , Berlin, D-10623, Germany
| | - Alexander Popp
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
| | - Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) , St Lucia, 4067 Qld, Australia
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
| | - Christoph Müller
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
| | - Isabelle Weindl
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
- Technology Assessment and Substance Cycles, Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB) , Potsdam, D-14469, Germany
| | - Jan Philipp Dietrich
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
| | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin) , Berlin, D-10099, Germany
| | - Ulrich Kreidenweis
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
- Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin) , Berlin, D-10623, Germany
| | - Susanne Rolinski
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
| | - Anne Biewald
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
| | - Xiaoxi Wang
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin) , Berlin, D-10099, Germany
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14
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Prestele R, Alexander P, Rounsevell MDA, Arneth A, Calvin K, Doelman J, Eitelberg DA, Engström K, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Schüngel J, Stehfest E, Tabeau A, Van Meijl H, Van Vliet J, Verburg PH. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:3967-3983. [PMID: 27135635 PMCID: PMC5111780 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2016] [Accepted: 04/11/2016] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciencesUniversity of EdinburghDrummond StreetEdinburghEH89XPUK
| | | | - Almut Arneth
- Department Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKreuzeckbahnstr. 1982467Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMD20740USA
| | - Jonathan Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyP.O. Box 3033720AH BilthovenThe Netherlands
| | - David A. Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversitySölvegatan 12LundSweden
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies16‐2 OnogawaTsukubaIbaraki305‐8506Japan
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies16‐2 OnogawaTsukubaIbaraki305‐8506Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisA‐2361LaxenburgAustria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)P.O. Box 60 12 0314412PotsdamGermany
| | - Atul K. Jain
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaIL61801USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisA‐2361LaxenburgAustria
| | - Page Kyle
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMD20740USA
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaIL61801USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)P.O. Box 60 12 0314412PotsdamGermany
| | - Ronald D. Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics DivisionEconomic Research ServiceUS Department of AgricultureWashingtonDC20250USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of KasselWilhelmshöher Allee 47D‐34109KasselGermany
| | - Jan Schüngel
- Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of KasselWilhelmshöher Allee 47D‐34109KasselGermany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyP.O. Box 3033720AH BilthovenThe Netherlands
| | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEIWageningen University and Research CentreP.O. Box 297032502LS The HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Hans Van Meijl
- LEIWageningen University and Research CentreP.O. Box 297032502LS The HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Jasper Van Vliet
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLZürcherstrasse 111CH‐8903BirmensdorfSwitzerland
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15
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Stevanović M, Popp A, Lotze-Campen H, Dietrich JP, Müller C, Bonsch M, Schmitz C, Bodirsky BL, Humpenöder F, Weindl I. The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare. Sci Adv 2016; 2:e1501452. [PMID: 27574700 PMCID: PMC4996644 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2015] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miodrag Stevanović
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany
- Corresponding author.
| | - Alexander Popp
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, PIK, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Jan Philipp Dietrich
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Christoph Müller
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, PIK, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Markus Bonsch
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, PIK, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia, 4067 Queensland, Australia
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany
| | - Isabelle Weindl
- Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, PIK, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
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16
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Humpenöder F, Popp A, Stevanovic M, Müller C, Bodirsky BL, Bonsch M, Dietrich JP, Lotze-Campen H, Weindl I, Biewald A, Rolinski S. Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation? Environ Sci Technol 2015; 49:6731-9. [PMID: 25939014 DOI: 10.1021/es506201r] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florian Humpenöder
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- ‡Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin), 10623 Berlin, Germany
| | - Alexander Popp
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Miodrag Stevanovic
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- ‡Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin), 10623 Berlin, Germany
| | - Christoph Müller
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- §The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, Australia
| | - Markus Bonsch
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- ‡Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin), 10623 Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- ∥Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Isabelle Weindl
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- ∥Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Anne Biewald
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Susanne Rolinski
- †Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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