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Dickman LT, Jonko AK, Linn RR, Altintas I, Atchley AL, Bär A, Collins AD, Dupuy J, Gallagher MR, Hiers JK, Hoffman CM, Hood SM, Hurteau MD, Jolly WM, Josephson A, Loudermilk EL, Ma W, Michaletz ST, Nolan RH, O'Brien JJ, Parsons RA, Partelli‐Feltrin R, Pimont F, Resco de Dios V, Restaino J, Robbins ZJ, Sartor KA, Schultz‐Fellenz E, Serbin SP, Sevanto S, Shuman JK, Sieg CH, Skowronski NS, Weise DR, Wright M, Xu C, Yebra M, Younes N. Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects. New Phytol 2023; 238:952-970. [PMID: 36694296 PMCID: PMC10952334 DOI: 10.1111/nph.18770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.
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Affiliation(s)
- L. Turin Dickman
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Alexandra K. Jonko
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Rodman R. Linn
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Ilkay Altintas
- San Diego Supercomputer Center and Halicioglu Data Science InstituteUniversity of California San DiegoLa JollaCA92093USA
| | - Adam L. Atchley
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Andreas Bär
- Department of BotanyUniversity of Innsbruck6020InnsbruckAustria
| | - Adam D. Collins
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Jean‐Luc Dupuy
- Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM)INRAe84914AvignonFrance
| | | | | | - Chad M. Hoffman
- Department of Forest and Rangeland StewardshipColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCO80523USA
| | - Sharon M. Hood
- Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceMissoulaMT59801USA
| | | | - W. Matt Jolly
- Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceMissoulaMT59801USA
| | - Alexander Josephson
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | | | - Wu Ma
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Sean T. Michaletz
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research CentreThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCV6T 1Z4Canada
| | - Rachael H. Nolan
- Hawkesbury Institute for the EnvironmentWestern Sydney UniversityPenrithNSW2753Australia
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research HubWollongongNSW2522Australia
| | | | | | - Raquel Partelli‐Feltrin
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research CentreThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCV6T 1Z4Canada
| | - François Pimont
- Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM)INRAe84914AvignonFrance
| | - Víctor Resco de Dios
- School of Life Sciences and EngineeringSouthwest University of Science and TechnologyMianyang621010China
- Department of Crop and Forest Sciences and JRU CTFC‐AGROTECNIOUniversitat de LleidaLleida25198Spain
| | - Joseph Restaino
- Fire and Resource Assessment ProgramCalifornia Department of Forestry and Fire ProtectionSouth Lake TahoeCA96155USA
| | - Zachary J. Robbins
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Karla A. Sartor
- Environmental Protection and Compliance DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Emily Schultz‐Fellenz
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Shawn P. Serbin
- Environmental and Climate Sciences DepartmentBrookhaven National LaboratoryUptonNY11973USA
| | - Sanna Sevanto
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Jacquelyn K. Shuman
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Terrestrial Sciences SectionNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCO80305USA
| | - Carolyn H. Sieg
- Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceFlagstaffAZ86001USA
| | | | - David R. Weise
- Pacific Southwest Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceRiversideCA92507USA
| | - Molly Wright
- Cibola National ForestUSDA Forest ServiceAlbuquerqueNM87113USA
| | - Chonggang Xu
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Marta Yebra
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraACT2601Australia
- School of EngineeringAustralian National UniversityCanberraACT2601Australia
| | - Nicolas Younes
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraACT2601Australia
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Myers SS, Zanobetti A, Kloog I, Huybers P, Leakey ADB, Bloom A, Carlisle E, Dietterich LH, Fitzgerald G, Hasegawa T, Holbrook NM, Nelson RL, Ottman MJ, Raboy V, Sakai H, Sartor KA, Schwartz J, Seneweera S, Tausz M, Usui Y. Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature 2014; 510:139-42. [PMID: 24805231 PMCID: PMC4810679 DOI: 10.1038/nature13179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 475] [Impact Index Per Article: 47.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2013] [Accepted: 02/24/2014] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Dietary deficiencies of zinc and iron are a substantial global public health problem. An estimated two billion people suffer these deficiencies, causing a loss of 63 million life-years annually. Most of these people depend on C3 grains and legumes as their primary dietary source of zinc and iron. Here we report that C3 grains and legumes have lower concentrations of zinc and iron when grown under field conditions at the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted for the middle of this century. C3 crops other than legumes also have lower concentrations of protein, whereas C4 crops seem to be less affected. Differences between cultivars of a single crop suggest that breeding for decreased sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentration could partly address these new challenges to global health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel S. Myers
- Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Itai Kloog
- Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, MA, USA
- The Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Peter Huybers
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Andrew D. B. Leakey
- Department of Plant Biology and Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - Arnold Bloom
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Eli Carlisle
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Lee H. Dietterich
- University of Pennsylvania, Department of Biology, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Glenn Fitzgerald
- Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Horsham, Victoria, Australia
| | - Toshihiro Hasegawa
- National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - N. Michele Holbrook
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Randall L. Nelson
- USDA-Agricultural Research Service, Soybean/Maize Germplasm, Pathology, and Genetics Research Unit, Dept. of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - Michael J Ottman
- School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Victor Raboy
- USDA Agricultural Research Service, Aberdeen, Idaho, USA
| | - Hidemitsu Sakai
- National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | | | - Joel Schwartz
- Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Saman Seneweera
- Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michael Tausz
- Department of Forest & Ecosystem Science, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yasuhiro Usui
- National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
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