Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Determinants of early initiation of breastfeeding following birth in West Africa: A multilevel analysis using data from multi-country national health surveys

BACKGROUND

Early initiation of breastfeeding (EIBF), within the first hour of birth, is crucial for promoting exclusive breastfeeding and establishing optimal nursing practices. However, global EIBF rates remain low, with even lower rates observed in Africa. Despite existing research gaps, this study aims to determine the prevalence of EIBF and identify maternal and child-related factors associated with its practice in West Africa.

METHODS

This study utilized West African Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 13 countries, including 146,964 children's records. To assess model fit, likelihood test and deviance were used. Similarly, intraclass correlation coefficient, median odds ratio, and proportional change in variance were employed for random effect. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to identify individual- and community-level factors influencing EIBF due to the hierarchical nature of the data. Variables with p-values ≤0.2 in the binary model and <0.05 in the final analysis were considered significantly associated with EIBF.

RESULTS

The pooled prevalence of EIBF in West African nations was 50.60% (95% CI; 50.34-50.85%). The highest prevalence rate was observed in Serra Leone (75.33%) and the lowest prevalence was found in Senegal (33.94%). In the multilevel multiple logistic regression model, maternal education (AOR = 1.10, 95% CI, 1.03,1.16), marital status AOR = 1.07, 95% CI, 1.01,1.13), birth weight (AOR = 0.91, CI 0.86,0.96), birth orders (AOR = 1.09, CI 1.03,1.16), and (AOR = 1.11, CI 1.03,1.19), place of residence (AOR = 1.14, CI 1.07,1.21), and mode of delivery type (AOR = 0.26, CI 0.24,0.29) were significantly correlated with EIBF in West Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of EIBF in West Africa was found to be low. The study emphasizes the need for targeted behavioral change communication programs to address timely breastfeeding initiation, specifically targeting mothers and child characteristics. Factors such as education, delivery mode, marital status, birth weight, birth order, and place of residence were significantly associated with EIBF. Special attention should be given to improving EIBF rates among women undergoing caesarean sections, infants with low birth weight, and primiparous mothers, along with structural improvements in the healthcare sector in West Africa.

Less than one in four mothers get quality intrapartum health care services in Ethiopia

Intrapartum care is a platform of comprehensive healthcare for pregnant women that is designed to improve birth outcomes for mother and child. However, complications during the intrapartum period continued to be the leading cause of death for women of reproductive age and newborns. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of quality of intrapartum care and its associated factors among mothers in Ethiopia. A community based cross sectional study was conducted among 4469 mothers who gave birth in the last 2 years. Quality of intrapartum care was analyzed based on the assessment of health facility delivery, skilled birth attendants and early initiations of breast-feeding. Stata version 14 software was used for data cleaning and analysis. A mixed effect multilevel logistic regression was conducted to determine factors associated with quality of intrapartum care. An adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval and a P value of less than or equal to 0.05 was used for the identification of both individual and community level factors. Overall, the prevalence of quality intrapartum care in Ethiopia was 23.8% (95% CI 22.6, 25.13). Primary education (AOR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.14, 1.88), rich household class (AOR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.10, 1.98), history of ANC (AOR = 2.91, 95% CI = 2.18, 3.86), perceived distance to the health facility as not a big issue (AOR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.30, 2.05), urban residence (AOR = 2.97, 95% CI = 1.93, 5.09), Tigray region (AOR = 5.01, 95% CI = 1.25, 20.59), community level poverty (AOR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.41, 0.97), and having 2-4 children (AOR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.56, 0.97) were significantly associated with quality of intrapartum care. The finding conclude that less than one in four mothers received good quality intrapartum care. In order to optimize the quality of intrapartum care, the government should empower women through extensive education. It is also recommended for the Ministry of Health to evaluate the health facilities and community health workers to increase coverage of ANC and provide financial assistance to rural residents and the poor household class.

Determinants of podoconiosis among residents of Machakle District East Gojjam Zone Amhara Region Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Podoconiosis (endemic non-filarial elephantiasis) is a chronic disease characterized by the development of persistent swelling of plantar foot initially; which progresses to the dorsal foot and lower leg slowly or in a number of acute episodes to reach the knee. About 4 million people are said to be affected by the disease worldwide and it is deemed a serious public health problem in at least 10 African countries including Ethiopia. Therefore this study aimed to identify the determinants of podoconiosis among residence in Machakel district.

METHOD

Unmatched case control study design was conducted at Machakel district from August 30 to September 30, 2022. The sample size calculated using Epi-info software yielded 211 controls and 106 cases (317 study participants). Simple random sampling technique was used to select the cases using registration books of the district. Data were entered to Epi info version 7 and exported to SPSS version 22 for statistical analysis. Binary logistic regression was used to identify explanatory variables.

RESULT

A total of 312 study participants (104 cases and 208 controls) were included giving a response rate of 98.42%. Bare foot (AOR, 5.83 [95% CI: 2.34-14.50]), female sex (AOR, 4.25 [95% CI: 2.22-8.14]), family history of podoconiosis (AOR: 3.01(95% CI: 1.41-6.42) and age group 41-60 (AOR: 5.05(95% CI: 2.35-10.83), and 61-80 AOR 15.74 95% CI: (5.56-44.55) were determinants of Podoconiosis.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Barefoot, sex, family history of podoconiosis and age were determinants of Podoconiosis. District health office should encourage at risk populations especially older people and individuals with family history of podoconiosis about shoe wearing practice all the time and not to expose their skin and feet.

Awareness and care seeking for long COVID symptoms among Coronavirus disease survivors in Bahir Dar City, Northwest Ethiopia: phenomenological study

BACKGROUND

Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) has long-term sequels that persisted for months to years and manifested with a spectrum of signs and symptoms. Presentations of long COVID-19 symptoms are heterogeneous, vary from person to person, and can reach up to over 200 symptoms. Limited studies are conducted on the awareness of long COVID-19. So, this study aimed to explore the awareness about and care seeking for long COVID-19 symptoms among COVID survivors in Bahir Dar City in 2022.

METHODS

A qualitative study with a phenomenological design was used. Participants of the study were individuals who survived five months or longer after they tested positive for COVID-19 in Bahir Dar city. Individuals were selected purposively. An in-depth interview guide was prepared and used to collect the data. Open Cod 4.03 software was used for coding and synthesizing. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the transcripts.

RESULTS

The themes emerged from the data were awareness, experience of symptoms and their effects, and care practices of long COVID-19. Although only one participant mentioned the common symptoms of long COVID-19 the survivors experienced general, respiratory, cardiac, digestive, neurological, and other symptoms. These symptoms include rash, fatigue fever, cough, palpitations, shortness of breath, chest pain, and abdominal pain, loss of concentration, loss of smell, sleep disorder, depression, joint and muscle pain. These symptoms brought various physical and psychosocial effects. The majority of the respondents described that long COVID-19 symptoms will go off by themselves. To alleviate the problems some of the participants had taken different measures including medical care, homemade remedies, spiritual solutions, and lifestyle modification.

CONCLUSIONS

The result of this study revealed that participants have a significant deficit of awareness about the common symptoms, risk groups, and communicability of Long COVID. However, they experienced the majority of the common symptoms of Long COVID. To alleviate the problems, they had taken different measures including medical care, homemade remedies, spiritual solutions, and lifestyle modification.

Traditional bone setting service users and associated factors among people with trauma in Mecha district, Ethiopia

World Health Organization stated that traditional medicine is an important part of health care and countries need to consider integrating it into their primary health care system. Traditional bone setting has a long history in Ethiopia and it enjoys enormous acceptance in the community. However, these methods are raw, there is no standardized training and at the same time, complications are common. Therefore, this research aimed to assess the prevalence of traditional bone setting service utilization and associated factors among people with trauma in Mecha district. Methods A Community- based cross-sectional study design was employed from January 15 to February 15, 2021. A total of 836 participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Binary and multiple logistic regressions were employed to assess the association between the independent variables with traditional bone setting service utilization. Results The prevalence of traditional bone setting service utilization was 46.05%. Factors significantly associated with TBS utilization were: Age ≥ 60 years (AOR = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.03- 0.43), rural residence (AOR = 3.63, 95% CI: 1.76 -7.50), occupation (merchant (AOR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.07 -0.61), and housewife (AOR = 4.12, 95% CI: 1.33 -12.70), type of trauma: dislocation (AOR = 6.40, 95% CI: 3.69-11.10), and strain (AOR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.05- 4.14)), site of trauma: extremity (AOR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.37), trunk (AOR = 0.08, 95% CI: 0.03-0.22), and shoulder (AOR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.11-0.37), cause of trauma: fall down and natural deformity (AOR = 9.87, 95% CI: 5.93-16.42) and household annual income greater than > 36,500 (AOR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.29-4.22). Conclusion The prevalence of traditional bone setting practice is high in the study area, despite recent advancements in the practice of orthopedics and trauma in Ethiopia. Since TBS services are more accepted in society, the integration of TBS into the health care delivery system is recommended.

Time to initial highly active antiretroviral therapy discontinuation and its predictors among HIV patients in Felege Hiwot comprehensive specialized hospital: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Anti-retroviral therapy regimen discontinuations become a big challenge and cause diminishing the clinical and immunological benefit of treatment in Ethiopia. It reduces both the duration and the chance of viral control due to cross-resistance between different alternative drugs and overlapping toxicity between and within a class of antiretroviral drugs in Ethiopia. However, information’s on the time of initial regimen discontinuation and its predictors are not well studied.

Objective

This study aimed to assess the time to initial highly active antiretroviral therapy discontinuation and its predictors among HIV patients in Felege Hiwot comprehensive specialized hospital, North West Ethiopia.

Method

Institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 418 HIV patients who started HAART from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2019. Data were collected from the patient chart using a data extraction tool. The Kaplan–Meier curve was employed to compare survival rates. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was applied to identify independent predictors of time to initial regimen discontinuation.

Result

A total of 418 patients on anti-retroviral therapy were followed. Incidence of initial HAART discontinuation was 16.7/100 person year. The median survival time was 3.5 years. Predictors showed association for time to initial HAART discontinuation were taking > 1 ART pills/day (AHR = 4.1, 95% CI 3.0–6.5), baseline CD4 count < 100 cells/mm³ (AHR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.5–4.7), 100–199 cells/mm³ (AHR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.2–4.0), baseline WHO clinical stage IV (AHR = 2.68, 95% CI 1.6–4.3) and stage III (AHR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.4–4.3) and TB infection (AHR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.6–3.5).

Conclusion

Most of the discontinuation occurred after 1 year of initiation of HAART. Baseline WHO clinical stage, TB infection, baseline CD4 count, and taking > 1 ART pill/day were found predictors of initial HAART regimen discontinuation. Work on early detection of HIV before the disease is advanced and initiation of one ART regimen daily is vital for survival on the initial regimen.

Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic Preparation and Response on Essential Health Services in Primary and Tertiary Healthcare Settings of Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Countries like Ethiopia have had to make difficult decisions to balance between the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic and maintaining the essential health service delivery. We assessed the effect of preventive COVID-19 measures on essential healthcare services in selected health facilities of Ethiopia. In a comparative cross-sectional study, we analyzed and compared data from seven health facilities over two periods: the pre-COVID-19 period before the first reported COVID-19 case in the country and during the COVID-19 period. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics and the independent t test. During the COVID-19 period the average number of monthly patient visits in the emergency department, pediatrics outpatient, and adult outpatient dropped by 27%, 30%, and 27%, respectively compared with the pre-COVID-19 period. Family planning; institutional delivery; childhood immunization; antenatal care-, hypertension- and diabetic patient follow-up, did not vary significantly between pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19. Moreover, the monthly average number of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV patients who visited health facilities for drug refill and clinical evaluation did not vary significantly during the two periods. In conclusion, the study highlights that the effect of public restrictions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic on essential care systems should be considered.

Factors Associated with Human Brucellosis among patients Attending in Ayu Primary Hospital, North Showa, Ethiopia: ACase Control Study

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis is a disease of domestic and wild animals commonly caused by Brucella species and can be transmitted to humans (zoonosis). Susceptibility to Brucellosis in Humans depends on immune status, routes of infection, size of the inoculums, and to some extent, the species of Brucella. Globally more than 500,000 new cases are reported each year. In sub-Saharan Africa, Brucellosis prevalence is unclear and poorly understood with varying reports from country to country, geographical regions as well as animal factors.

METHODS

Facility-based unmatched case-control study was conducted on 167 patients with human brucellosis and 332 controls from February 27/2019 to May 20/2019 in AYU primary hospital, North Showa Zone, Ethiopia. descriptive statistics such as frequency and percentages were used to describe the profile of case and control and analytical statistics such as bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the determinants of human brucellosis.

RESULT

A total of 499 participants were included with a response rate of 99.60%. The mean age of participants was 45.46 years with a standard deviation (SD) of ±12.96 years. Human brucellosis had a statistically significant association with raw milk consumptions (AOR 5.75[95%CI 1.97-16.76]), slaughtering of animals at home(AOR 14.81[95%CI 3.63-60.38]), having contact with animal manure(AOR 2.87 [CI 1.08-7.62]), having contact with aborted cattle's fetus (AOR 3.01[95%CI 1.34-9.13]) and knowledge about brucellosis(AOR 0.29 [95%CI 0.08-0.83].

CONCLUSION

Generally in this study knowledge about Human Brucellosis, contact with animal manures, practicing animal slaughtering at home, having contact with animal ruminants, and consuming raw milk were identified as determinants for human brucellosis infection.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Determinant factors of overweight/obesity among federal ministry civil servants in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a call for sector-wise occupational health program

OBJECTIVE

Civil servants are disposing individuals to sedentary lifestyle and, may lead to overweight and obesity. Thus, the purpose of the study was to identify factors associated with overweight and obesity among employees in Ethiopia ministries.

RESULT

Respondents who were age 45 years and above [AOR = 11.56, 95% CI 3.75-35.56], 35-44 years [AOR = 11.17, 95% CI 3.89-32.06] and 25-34 [AOR = 3.08 95% CI 1.07-8.83] were more likely to be overweight/obesity as compared to those who were in age category of 18-24 years. The study also found that ever alcohol consumption [AOR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.23, 4.16] was associated with increased risk of overweight and obesity as compared to non-consumers. Another risk factor was adult who did not practice ten minutes' walk per day, more likely to overweight and obesity [AOR = 11.28, 95% CI 5.96-21.36] as compared to the counter parts. Similarly, participants who did not involve physical activity (sport) [AOR = 2.42% 95% CI 1.36-4.30] were 2.42 times more likely to overweight and obesity as compared to those who had physical activity. Sector-wise occupational health program should be developed in work placed to decrease identified risk factors.

Premarital sexual practice and associated factors among high school youths in Debretabor town, South Gondar zone, North West Ethiopia, 2017

Objective

Premarital sex is voluntary sexual intercourse between unmarried persons. Prevalence and factors associated with premarital sexual practice in the study area are lacking. Thus, the aims of this study were to determine the prevalence and to identify factors associated with premarital sexual practice among Debretabor high school youths.

Results

The prevalence of premarital sex among Debretabor town high school youths was 22.5% of which 63.9% of them were males. Among those high school youths, the majority (60.2%) had their first sexual intercourse at the age of 15–19 years. The main reason for initiation of sexual intercourse was due to fell in love which accounts 48.1%, followed by sexual desire 22.2%. Predictors that are risk for premarital sex were youths who did not attend religious education [AOR = 7.4, 95% CI (3.32, 16.43)], having boy or girl friends [AOR = 9.66, 95% CI (4.80, 19.43)], drinking alcohol every day [AOR = 9.43, 95% CI (2.86, 31.14)] and less than twice a week [AOR = 2.52, 95% CI (1.22, 5.21)], watching pornography film [AOR = 5.15, 95% CI (2.56, 10.37)] and youths came from rural residing families [AOR = 0.51, 95% CI (0.27, 0.96)].