Identifying factors that can be used to assess a country's readiness to deploy a new vaccine or improve uptake of an underutilised vaccine: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

Identifying whether a country is ready to deploy a new vaccine or improve uptake of an existing vaccine requires knowledge of a diverse range of interdependent, context-specific factors. This scoping review aims to identify common themes that emerge across articles, which include tools or guidance that can be used to establish whether a country is ready to deploy a new vaccine or increase uptake of an underutilised vaccine.

DESIGN

Scoping review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Scoping Reviews guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Web of Science were searched for articles published until 9 September 2023. Relevant articles were also identified through expert opinion.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Articles published in any year or language that included tools or guidance to identify factors that influence a country's readiness to deploy a new or underutilised vaccine.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent reviewers screened records and performed data extraction. Findings were synthesised by conducting a thematic analysis.

RESULTS

38 articles met our inclusion criteria; these documents were created using methodologies including expert review panels and Delphi surveys and varied in terms of content and context-of-use. 12 common themes were identified relevant to a country's readiness to deploy a new or underutilised vaccine. These themes were as follows: (1) legal, political and professional consensus; (2) sociocultural factors and communication; (3) policy, guidelines and regulations; (4) financing; (5) vaccine characteristics and supply logistics; (6) programme planning; (7) programme monitoring and evaluation; (8) sustainable and integrated healthcare provision; (9) safety surveillance and reporting; (10) disease burden and characteristics; (11) vaccination equity and (12) human resources and training of professionals.

CONCLUSIONS

This information has the potential to form the basis of a globally applicable evidence-based vaccine readiness assessment tool that can inform policy and immunisation programme decision-makers.

Current global status of male reproductive health

BACKGROUND

The widespread interest in male reproductive health (MRH), fueled by emerging evidence, such as the global decline in sperm counts, has intensified concerns about the status of MRH. Consequently, there is a pressing requirement for a strategic, systematic approach to identifying critical questions, collecting pertinent information, and utilizing these data to develop evidence-based strategies. The methods for addressing these questions and the pathways toward their answers will inevitably vary based on the variations in cultural, geopolitical, and health-related contexts. To address these issues, a conjoint ESHRE and Male Reproductive Health Initiative (MRHI) Campus workshop was convened.

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

The three objectives were: first, to assess the current state of MRH around the world; second, to identify some of the key gaps in knowledge; and, third, to examine how MRH stakeholders can collaboratively generate intelligent and effective paths forward.

SEARCH METHODS

Each expert reviewed and summarized the current literature that was subsequently used to provide a comprehensive overview of challenges related to MRH.

OUTCOMES

This narrative report is an overview of the data, opinions, and arguments presented during the workshop. A number of outcomes are presented and can be summarized by the following overarching themes: MRH is a serious global issue and there is a plethora of gaps in our understanding; there is a need for widespread international collaborative networks to undertake multidisciplinary research into fundamental issues, such as lifestyle/environmental exposure studies, and high-quality clinical trials; and there is an urgent requirement for effective strategies to educate young people and the general public to safeguard and improve MRH across diverse population demographics and resources.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

This was a workshop where worldwide leading experts from a wide range of disciplines presented and discussed the evidence regarding challenges related to MRH. While each expert summarized the current literature and placed it in context, the data in a number of areas are limited and/or sparse. Equally, important areas for consideration may have been missed. Moreover, there are clear gaps in our knowledge base, which makes some conclusions necessarily speculative and warranting of further study.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

Poor MRH is a global issue that suffers from low awareness among the public, patients, and heathcare professionals. Addressing this will require a coordinated multidisciplinary approach. Addressing the significant number of knowledge gaps will require policy makers prioritizing MRH and its funding.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The authors would like to extend their gratitude to ESHRE for providing financial support for the Budapest Campus Workshop, as well as to Microptic S.L. (Barcelona) for kindly sponsoring the workshop. P.B. is the Director of the not-for-profit organization Global Action on Men's Health and receives fees and expenses for his work, (which includes the preparation of this manuscript). Conflicts of interest: C.J.D.J., C.L.R.B., R.A.A., P.B., M.P.C., M.L.E., N.G., N.J., C.K., AAP, M.K.O., S.R.-H., M.H.V.-L.: ESHRE Campus Workshop 2022 (Travel support-personal). C.J.D.J.: Cambridge University Press (book royalties-personal). ESHRE Annual Meeting 2022 and Yale University Panel Meeting 2023 (Travel support-personal). C.L.R.B.: Ferring and IBSA (Lecture), RBMO editor (Honorarium to support travel, etc.), ExSeed and ExScentia (University of Dundee), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (for research on contraception). M.P.C.: Previously received funding from pharmaceutical companies for health economic research. The funding was not in relation to this work and had no bearing on the contents of this work. No funding from other sources has been provided in relation to this work (funding was provided to his company Global Market Access Solutions). M.L.E.: Advisor to Ro, Doveras, Next, Hannah, Sandstone. C.K.: European Academy of Andrology (Past president UNPAID), S.K.: CEO of His Turn, a male fertility Diagnostic and Therapeutic company (No payments or profits to date). R.I.M.: www.healthymale.org.au (Australian Government funded not for profit in men's health sector (Employed as Medical Director 0.2 FET), Monash IVF Pty Ltd (Equity holder)). N.J.: Merck (consulting fees), Gedeon Richter (honoraria). S.R.-H.: ESHRE (Travel reimbursements). C.N.: LLC (Nursing educator); COMMIT (Core Outcomes Measures for Infertility Trials) Advisor, meeting attendee, and co-author; COMMA (Core Outcomes in Menopause) Meeting attendee, and co-author; International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) Delegate Letters and Sciences; ReproNovo, Advisory board; American Board of Urology Examiner; American Urological Association Journal subsection editor, committee member, guidelines co-author Ferring Scientific trial NexHand Chief Technology Officer, stock ownership Posterity Health Board member, stock ownership. A.P.: Economic and Social Research Council (A collaborator on research grant number ES/W001381/1). Member of an advisory committee for Merck Serono (November 2022), Member of an advisory board for Exceed Health, Speaker fees for educational events organized by Mealis Group; Chairman of the Cryos External Scientific Advisory Committee: All fees associated with this are paid to his former employer The University of Sheffield. Trustee of the Progress Educational Trust (Unpaid). M.K.O.: National Health and Medical Research Council and Australian Research Council (Funding for research of the topic of male fertility), Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Funding aimed at the development of male gamete-based contraception), Medical Research Future Fund (Funding aimed at defining the long-term consequences of male infertility). M.H.V.-L.: Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research (SRH)/Human Reproduction Programme (HRP) Research Project Panel RP2/WHO Review Member; MRHI (Core Group Member), COMMIT (member), EGOI (Member); Human Reproduction (Associate Editor), Fertility and Sterility (Editor), AndroLATAM (Founder and Coordinator).

Fiscal analysis of the pediatric immunization program in Belgium applying a lifetime government perspective framework

OBJECTIVES

A public economic framework was used to explore lifetime government costs and benefits in relation to the Pediatric Immunization Program (PIP) in Belgium based on cases and deaths averted.

METHODS

To estimate changes in net government revenue, we developed a decision-analytic model that quantifies lifetime tax revenues and transfers based on changes in morbidity and mortality arising from Belgium's Pediatric Immunization Program (PIP). The model considered differences in incidence rates with vaccines included in Belgium's PIP: compared with the pre-vaccine era. Changes in deaths and comorbid conditions attributed to PIP on the Belgium 2020 birth cohort were used to estimate gross lifetime earnings changes, tax revenue gains attributed to averted morbidity and mortality avoidance, disability transfer cost savings, and averted special education costs associated with each vaccine.

RESULTS

Vaccinating a single birth cohort according to the PIP gives rise to fiscal gains of €56 million in averted tax revenue loss, €8 million disability savings, and €6 million special education cost-savings. Based on the costs of implementing the PIP, we estimate the fiscal benefit-cost ratio (fBCR) of €2.2 investment return for the government from every €1 invested excluding longevity costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing vaccine-preventable conditions generates tax revenue for the government, providing fiscal justification for sustained immunization investments.

Estimating Public Economic Gains from Early Breast Cancer and Curative Treatment: A Case Study in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (HER-2) Positive Targeted Therapies

INTRODUCTION

Cancer diagnosis influences the choices that patients make regarding current and future labor market activity. These choices have implications for governments based on resulting changes in taxes paid and benefits received. In this analysis we explore how human growth receptor 2 (HER2)-positive residual invasive breast cancer and different treatments influence government accounts excluding health costs.

METHODS

HER2-positive early breast cancer (eBC) health states from a published disease model were used to establish likelihood of working and wage impact at different stages of disease. The indirect productivity losses for an average woman aged 49 years were translated into fiscal consequences to government by applying an established government perspective-modeling framework. The fiscal projections (discounted) include gross tax revenue by disease stage, government transfer costs related to time off work and early retirement ,and net fiscal balance (e.g., gross taxes-transfers) in three countries Canada, Portugal, and Brazil.

RESULTS

The net fiscal balance in Canada for a healthy woman was C$109,551 compared with a HER2-positive eBC woman treated with trastuzumab emtansine (C$69,767) or trastuzumab (C$62,971). A similar pattern was observed in the three countries but reflecting the overall tax burden in each country, labor force activity, and available public benefits. Age at diagnosis was an important determinant of the likely net fiscal balance, as this influences the remaining working years.

DISCUSSION

Women diagnosed with HER2-positive eBC were estimated to pay less lifetime gross taxes and receive more in sickness benefits compared with healthy women. Treatments that improve outcomes are likely to offer fiscal gains for government from improved work force participation.

Assessing the Fiscal Burden of Obesity in Canada by Applying a Public Economic Framework

INTRODUCTION

Rising obesity prevalence is a health priority for many governments because of its impact on population health and economic consequences. We sought to estimate the broader consequences of obesity in Canada by applying a government perspective framework that captures lost tax revenues and increased government spending on social benefit programs.

METHODS

An age-specific prevalence-based model was built to quantify the fiscal burden of disease for government attributed to people living with obesity. The model was populated with age-specific wages, employment activity and government benefits received to estimate taxes and transfer costs. A targeted literature search was conducted to identify modifiers of employment status, wages and disability status attributed to people with obesity, and applied to employment and epidemiological projections which enabled us to estimate government costs and tax losses. Government tax revenue and costs attributed to obesity were projected over a 10-year period and discounted at 3%.

RESULTS

The fiscal burden of obesity in Canada is estimated at CAD$22,974 million (2021). This figure consists of obesity-attributed revenue losses of CAD$9404 million from direct taxes due to decreased employment activity and CAD$2374 million from indirect tax revenue losses due to reduced consumption taxes. Healthcare costs are estimated at CAD$7881 million annually and disability costs of CAD$3686 million annually. This fiscal burden of disease distributed amongst taxpayers in 2021 is estimated to be CAD$752 per capita. We estimate for every 1% reduction in obesity prevalence, CAD$229.7 million net fiscal gains can be achieved annually.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity is associated with substantial clinical and economic burden not only to the healthcare system but also to wider government budgets as demonstrated using fiscal analysis. Reductions in obesity prevalence are likely to have positive fiscal gains for government from reduced spending on public benefits and increased tax revenue attributed to employment changes.

Public economic gains from tax-financed investments in childhood immunization in the United States

The emergence of COVID-19 has displayed the importance of immunization and the need for continued public investment in vaccination programs. Globally, national vaccination programs rely heavily on tax-financed expenditure, requiring upfront investments and ongoing financial commitments. To evaluate annual public investments, we conducted a fiscal analysis that quantifies the public economic consequences to government in the United States attributable to childhood vaccination. To estimate the change in net government revenue, we developed a decision-analytic model that quantifies lifetime tax revenues and transfers based on changes in morbidity and mortality arising from vaccination of the 2017 U.S. birth cohort. Reductions in deaths and comorbid conditions attributed to pediatric vaccines were used to derive gross lifetime earnings gains, tax revenue gains attributed to averted morbidity and mortality avoided, disability transfer cost savings, and averted special education costs associated with each vaccine. Our analysis indicates a fiscal dividend of $41.7 billion from vaccinating this cohort. The bulk of this gain for government reflects avoiding the loss of $30.6 billion in present-value tax revenues. All pediatric vaccines raise tax revenues by reducing vaccine-preventable morbidity and mortality in amounts ranging from $7.3 million (hepatitis A) to $20.3 billion (diphtheria) over the life course. Based on public investments in pediatric vaccines, a benefit-cost ratio of 17.8 was calculated for each dollar invested in childhood immunization. The public economic yield attributed to childhood vaccination in the U.S. is significant from a government perspective, providing fiscal justification for ongoing investment.

The Hidden Economic Consequences of Migraine to the UK Government: Burden-of-Disease Analysis Using a Fiscal Framework

Background: Migraine is a highly prevalent and incapacitating neurological disorder associated with the highest global disability burden in people aged 15 to 49 years. Europe has the fourth-highest prevalence of migraine, after North America, South America, and Central America, and above Asia and Africa. Migraine leads to relatively modest direct healthcare expenditure but has substantial indirect costs due to reduced productivity. Methods: The economic burden of migraine was estimated in comparison with the general population of the United Kingdom (UK) using an analytical fiscal modeling framework applying the government cost perspective. Published measures of migraine's impact on labor participation were applied to rates of economic activity/inactivity of the general population. The model estimates lifetime changes to earnings from employment, direct and indirect taxes paid, and financial support requirements over the life course. Incremental differences between those affected and unaffected by migraine are reported as net fiscal consequences to public accounts. Fiscal costs are reported as the discounted average per capita over a 20-year time horizon and for the entire annual UK cohort with prevalent migraine. Results: People affected by migraine are more likely to be absent from work, unemployed, and disabled, and to retire early. A 44-year-old individual affected by migraine was associated with £19 823 in excess fiscal costs to the UK government, £1379 per year living with the condition, compared with someone not affected by the disease. Annually, migraine was estimated to represent £12.20 billion to the public economy, approximately £130.63 per migraine episode. The model predicted annual productivity losses in the health and social care workforce to be £2.05 billion and total annual productivity losses to be over £5.81 billion. Conclusions: This fiscal analysis monetizes the occupational consequences of migraine to the UK government, both in terms of lost tax revenue and transfer payments. The findings are substantial and useful to characterize disease severity and to inform the body of evidence considered by decision makers appraising the cost-effectiveness of health technologies.

The Lifetime Burden of Schizophrenia as Estimated by a Government-Centric Fiscal Analytic Framework

Objective: To estimate the fiscal consequences of schizophrenia compared to the general US population using a "government perspective" fiscal analytic modeling framework capturing lost tax revenue and broader government costs in 2021.

Methods: Schizophrenia was modeled from age 23 using a cohort-based Markov chain with 6-week cycles, simulating the effect of antipsychotic treatment sequences on remission and relapse. Markov states were defined using efficacy and safety outcomes from short- and long-term clinical trials. Mortality was based on US lifetables, schizophrenia-related suicide, and cardiovascular risks. A semi-Markov model with annual cycles simulated the likelihood and costs of incarceration and homelessness in community-based individuals. Lifetime fiscal consequences were estimated conditionally to survival, remission/relapse status, and likelihood of socioeconomic outcomes. Costs and life years were discounted at 3.0% annually. Uncertainty was explored in 1-way and scenario analyses.

Results: Unemployment, disability, incarceration, homelessness, health care use, and productivity losses were more common in people living with schizophrenia. Schizophrenia was associated with a $1,540,042 per person lifetime fiscal loss to the government, with $56,707 per life year lived with schizophrenia. Health care costs represented 41.9% of the fiscal losses, 39.4% were due to criminal and homelessness costs, and 17.5% related to foregone tax revenue. Considering a 1.19% prevalence of schizophrenia, the estimated annual fiscal burden in the US was $173.6 billion.

Conclusions: The fiscal framework illustrates how schizophrenia influences taxation and government transfer payments over time. These findings can be used to augment cost-effectiveness analyses and inform stakeholders of the fiscal impact of schizophrenia to inform priority interventions.

Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling-The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability

National strategies for preparedness for future outbreaks of COVID-19 often include timely preparedness with vaccines. Fiscal health modelling (FHM) has recently been brought forward as an additional analysis by defining the public economic impact from a governmental perspective. As governments are the main decision-makers concerning pandemic preparedness, this study aimed to develop an FHM framework for infectious diseases in the Netherlands. Based on the Dutch COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 and 2021 and publicly available data on tax income and gross domestic product (GDP), the fiscal impact of COVID-19 was assessed using two approaches. Approach I: Prospective modelling of future fiscal impact based on publicly available laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases; and Approach II: Retrospective assessment of the extrapolated tax and benefit income and GDP. Approach I estimated the consequences that can be causally linked to the population counts reducing income taxes by EUR 266 million. The total fiscal loss amounted to EUR 164 million over 2 years (excluding pension payments averted). The total losses in terms of tax income (2020 and 2021) and GDP (2020) (Approach II), were estimated at, respectively, EUR 13.58 billion and EUR 96.3 billion. This study analysed different aspects of a communicable disease outbreak and its influence on government public accounts. The choice of the two presented approaches depends on the perspective of the analysis, the time horizon of the analysis and the availability of data.

Cost-effectiveness of infant hypoallergenic formulas to manage cow's milk protein allergy in France

BACKGROUND

Clinician's choice of hypoallergenic formulas in the first-line management of cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) should be informed by evidence on clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE

We compare the cost-effectiveness of amino acid-based formula (AAF), extensively hydrolyzed casein formula with Lactobacillus rhamnosus Gorbach Goldin (EHCF+LGG), extensively hydrolyzed whey formula (EHWF), and rice hydrolyzed formula (RHF) in non-breastfed children in France.

METHODS

Immunotolerance and atopic manifestations' prevalence were based on a prospective non-randomized study with a 36-month follow-up. Resource utilization was sourced from a survey of French clinicians, and unit costs were based on national data. Costs and health consequences were discounted at 2.5% annually. Results were reported using the Collective and French National Health Insurance perspectives.

RESULTS

Children receiving EHCF+LGG were predicted to require less healthcare resources, given their reduced prevalence of CMPA symptoms at 3 years. In the base case, EHCF+LGG led to savings of at least €674 per child compared to AAF, EHWF, and RHF at 3 years, from both perspectives. Nutrition had the highest economic burden in CMPA, driven by hypoallergenic formulas and dietetic replacements costs. Results were robust to one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

EHCF+LGG was associated with more symptom-free time, higher immune tolerance, and lower costs.

Economic evaluation of Medically Assisted Reproduction: An educational overview of methods and applications for healthcare professionals

Economic evaluations of the value-for-money of Medically Assisted Reproduction (MAR) interventions are increasingly important due to growing pressure on healthcare budgets. Although such evaluations are commonplace in the published literature, the number/methodological complexity of different evaluations available, and the challenges specific to MAR interventions, can complicate the interpretation of such analyses for fertility treatments. This article aims to serve as an educational resource and provide context on the design/interpretation of economic analyses for MAR interventions. Several areas are relevant for first-line providers and decision makers: scope of analysis, comparator used, perspective/time horizon considered, outcomes used to measure success, and how results from cost-effectiveness studies can be summarised and used in clinical practice. We aim to help clinicians better understand the strengths/weaknesses of economic analyses, to enable the best use of the evidence in practice, so resources available for MAR interventions can provide maximum value to patients and society.

Valuing live births from assisted reproduction: A health economics viewpoint

Infertility is a medical condition that can be overcome, thanks to advances in medically assisted reproductive (MAR) therapies. Despite the ultimate measure of MAR efficacy being the birth of a new human being, there are ethical and methodological questions as to which outcome best translates the value of MAR in cost-effectiveness analyses. Many authors favour cost per life birth outcomes instead of more traditional cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), which raises generalizability issues for decision-makers. Nonetheless, infertility and infertility treatments substantially differ from other health conditions and health treatments, particularly in the way they affect the quality of life of the infertile couple. Collecting quality of life measures in infertility and pregnancy is also surrounded by challenges not easily overcome. We reflect on cost-effectiveness methods applied to MAR technologies, on ethical considerations for valuing a MAR-generated life, and on its broader societal value for consideration by decision-makers.

Managing Cow's Milk Protein Allergy in Indonesia: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Hypoallergenic Milk Formulas from the Private Payers' Perspective

Background: Cow's milk protein allergy is very common in early childhood. Extensively hydrolyzed formulas are recommended in the first-line management of cow's milk protein allergy in non-breastfed children. Choice of formulas should be informed by efficacy and cost data. Objectives: This study aims to compare the cost-effectiveness of extensively hydrolyzed casein formula with Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus Gorbach Goldin (EHCF+LGG), extensively hydrolyzed whey formula (EHWF), amino acid formula, and soy formula in the first-line management of cow's milk protein allergy in non-breastfed children in Indonesia. Methods: A trial-based decision analytic cohort model was adapted to simulate the occurrence of cow's milk protein allergy symptoms or being symptom free. The model was based on a prospective nonrandomized study that followed up children for 36 months. Costs and health consequences were discounted at 3% annually. Resources required to manage cow's milk protein allergy and unit costs for clinical appointments and exams were based on a panel of 15 clinicians, from a private payers' perspective. Other unit costs were based on publicly available national data. Results were reported as cost per additional child free from allergic manifestations or per additional immunotolerant child at 3 years, and per life-years under the same conditions. Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Children receiving EHCF+LGG were associated with more symptom-free time, a higher probability of cow's milk tolerance at 3 years, and lower healthcare resources and transportation use when compared with children receiving other formulas (with 38%-49% lower costs). Formula costs were lower for soy, but EHCF+LGG was predicted to save 9% and 54% of overall costs compared with extensively hydrolyzed whey formula and amino acid formula, respectively. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Use of EHCF+LGG resulted in more symptom-free time and the highest 3-year probability of cow's milk tolerance. It also led to healthcare resource and transportation savings when compared with other hypoallergenic milk formulas. Soy formula remained an alternative if formula price represents a major constraint.

The public economic burden of suboptimal type 2 diabetes control upon taxpayers in Sweden: Looking beyond health costs

AIM

To estimate the fiscal burden for taxpayers in Sweden associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) attributed to diabetes-related complications in patients failing to meet HbA1c targets.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We developed a public economic framework to assess how changes in diabetes-related complications influenced projected tax contributions and government disability payments for people with T2D. The analysis applied accepted disease-modelling practices to estimate different rates of diabetes-related complications based on an HbA1c of 6.9% (52 mmol/mol) and of 6.0% (42 mmol/mol). We adjusted the employment activity rates for those experiencing T2D-related events, applying age-specific earnings to estimate lifetime tax losses. Furthermore, the likelihood of receiving payments for health-related employment inactivity was estimated. Direct healthcare costs are excluded from this analysis.

RESULTS

The estimated per person earnings loss for immediate and delayed HbA1c control was Swedish krona (SEK) 42 299 and SEK 44 157, respectively, over 10 years. The lost employment activity of people with T2D translates to lost tax revenues of SEK 23 265 and SEK 24 287 for immediate and delayed control, respectively. The estimated difference in disability payments was SEK 538. Combining the tax revenue loss and excess disability payments defines the broader fiscal costs, where we observe combined fiscal losses that favour immediate and sustained control by SEK 1560 over 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We show that conducting fiscal analysis of diabetes interventions offers an enriched perspective capturing a range of costs that fall on government in relation to lost tax revenue and disability payments. Tax-financed health systems may benefit from broadening the consideration of costs and benefits when evaluating new interventions and treatment practices.

Evaluation of the Fiscal Costs and Consequences of Alzheimer's Disease in Germany: Microsimulation of Patients' and Caregivers' Pathways

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease is a severe condition, impacting individual's wellbeing and independence in daily activities. Informal care provision is common and of great value to societies but is not without negative externalities to households and the broader economy.

OBJECTIVES

Estimate the lifetime incremental fiscal consequences of Alzheimer's disease in community-based individuals and their informal caregivers.

SETTING

The fiscal consequences of Alzheimer's disease was modeled using the German government and social security perspective.

PARTICIPANTS

Synthetic cohort containing 1,000 pairs of people with Alzheimer's disease and their informal caregivers, compared to 1,000 demographically identical pairs from the general population.

DESIGN

Disease progression was modeled using published equations and a state-transition microsimulation framework. Labor participation, financial support and paid taxes were estimated according to cognitive decline and caregiving responsibilities using German labor statistics and tax rates. Healthcare costs were sourced from several German publications. Costs and life-years were discounted at 3% annually.

MEASUREMENTS

Results are reported as lifetime incremental differences in total tax revenue and transfer payments between the cohort affected by Alzheimer's disease and their general population analogues.

RESULTS

The Alzheimer's disease-affected pair was associated with net incremental fiscal losses of €74,288 ($85,037) to the German government and social security over the lifetime of people with Alzheimer's disease. Most costs were lost taxes on employment earnings (48.4%) due to caregivers working reduced hours. Caregivers were estimated to earn €56,967 ($65,209) less than their general population analogues. Financial support for informal and formal care accounted for 20.4%, and medical healthcare costs represented 24.0% of the incremental fiscal losses. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the model results. In a cohort with early onset Alzheimer's disease, incremental fiscal losses were predicted to be €118,533 ($114,209) over the lifetime of people with Alzheimer's disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Alzheimer's disease externalities profoundly impact public economics for governments and should be considered to inform policy making and healthcare planning.

Mobile Cardiac Outpatient Telemetry Patch vs Implantable Loop Recorder in Cryptogenic Stroke Patients in the US - Cost-Minimization Model

Purpose

The aim of this study was to compare costs and outcomes of mobile cardiac outpatient telemetry (MCOT) patch followed by implantable loop recorder (ILR) compared to ILR alone in cryptogenic stroke patients from the US health-care payors’ perspective.

Patients and Methods

A quantitative decision tree cost-minimization simulation model was developed. Eligible patients were 18 years of age or older and were diagnosed with having a cryptogenic stroke, without previously documented atrial fibrillation (AF). All patients were assigned first to one then to the alternative monitoring strategies. Following AF detection, patients were initiated on oral anticoagulants (OAC). The model assessed direct costs for one year attributed to MCOT patch followed by ILR or ILR alone using a monitoring duration of 30 days post-cryptogenic stroke.

Results

In the base case modeling, the MCOT patch arm detected 4.6 more patients with AFs compared to the ILR alone arm in a cohort of 1000 patients (209 vs 45 patients with detected AFs, respectively). Using MCOT patch followed by ILR in half of the patients initially undiagnosed with AF leads to significant cost savings of US$4,083,214 compared to ILR alone in a cohort of 1000 patients. Cost per patient with detected AF was significantly lower in the MCOT patch arm $29,598 vs $228,507 in the ILR only arm.

Conclusion

An initial strategy of 30-day electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring with MCOT patch in diagnosis of AF in cryptogenic stroke patients realizes significant cost-savings compared to proceeding directly to ILR only. Almost 8 times lower costs were achieved with improved detection rates and reduction of secondary stroke risk due to new anticoagulant use in subjects with MCOT patch detected AF. These results strengthen emerging recommendations for prolonged ECG monitoring in secondary stroke prevention.

Erratum: Author Correction: Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Hypoallergenic Milk Formulas for the Management of Cow's Milk Protein Allergy in the United Kingdom

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.36469/jheor.2021.26010.].

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Hypoallergenic Milk Formulas for the Management of Cow's Milk Protein Allergy in the United Kingdom

Background: Cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) is the most common food allergy in early childhood. In most children CMPA resolves by age 5 or 6; however, if not treated correctly can provoke nutritional deficiency resulting in poor growth. Management consists of excluding cow's milk from the diet, with hypoallergenic formulas (or non-dairy alternatives) being introduced to meet nutritional requirements. Objectives: To compare the cost-effectiveness of hypoallergenic formulas in reducing allergic manifestations and promoting immune tolerance in infants with immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated symptoms of CMPA. Methods: A trial-based decision analytic cohort model was developed to simulate the occurrence of urticaria, eczema, asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis, or being symptom-free in infants with CMPA in the United Kingdom. Amino acid-based formula (AAF), extensively hydrolysed casein formula containing Lactobacillus rhamnosus Gorbach Goldin (EHCF+LGG), extensively hydrolysed whey formula (EHWF), and soy formula (SF) were compared using the National Health Service (NHS) perspective, 3-year time horizon and 3.5% discount rate for cost and health consequences. Hypoallergenic formulas comparative efficacy was sourced from a prospective cohort study. Resources required to manage allergic symptoms were sourced from published literature, validated by a UK clinician, and applied to UK cost resources. Results were reported as cost per additional child free from allergic manifestations at 3 years and cost per additional immune tolerant child at 3 years. Results: In the base case, infants receiving EHCF+LGG were associated with lower NHS resource use and improved CMPA tolerance. Over the 3-year treatment period, savings of £119, £476, and £1094 were achieved with EHCF+LGG compared to SF, EHWF and AAF, respectively. Infant formula accounted for the largest proportion of resource consumption averaging 44% for all comparators, with a minimum of 31% for SF and a maximum of 53% for AAF over 3 years. General practitioners' visits constituted the second highest cost component, approximately 17% of total costs across comparators. The results were robust to deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Compared to AAF, SF, and EHWF hypoallergenic formulas, EHCF+LGG was the most cost-effective, associated with lower total costs and contributing to a higher proportion of children being symptom-free and developing immune tolerance 3-years after diagnosis.

Estimating the broader fiscal consequences of acute hepatic porphyria (AHP) with recurrent attacks in Belgium using a public economic analytic framework

BACKGROUND

Acute hepatic porphyria (AHP) is a rare, debilitating disease characterized by potentially life-threatening attacks often resulting in chronic symptoms that negatively impact daily functioning and quality of life. Symptoms of AHP prevent many individuals from working and achieving lifetime work averages. The aim of this study was to apply a public economic framework to evaluate AHP in Belgium, taking into consideration a broad range of costs that are relevant to government in relation to social benefit payments and lifetime taxes paid.

METHODOLOGY

A public economic framework was developed exploring lifetime costs for government attributed to an individual with AHP and recurrent attacks in Belgium. Work-activity and lifetime direct taxes paid, indirect consumption taxes and requirements for public benefits were estimated based on established clinical pathways for AHP and compared to the general population (GP). The model includes AHP-related healthcare costs and non-AHP healthcare costs for the GP.

RESULTS

Lifetime earnings are reduced in an individual with AHP by €347,802 per person (p.p.), translating to reduced lifetime taxes paid of €183,187 for an AHP individual compared to the GP. We estimate increased lifetime disability benefit support of €247,242 for an AHP individual compared to GP. Lifetime healthcare costs for a person with AHP were estimated to be €3,030,316 due to frequent hospitalisations associated with porphyria attacks compared to the GP. The lifetime costs for a person with 12 attacks per annum factoring in transfers, taxes and healthcare costs are estimated to be €3,460,745 p.p. Eliminating AHP attacks after 10 years of active disease, thus, enabling a person to return to work increases lifetime earnings by €224,575 p.p. Increased work activity in such individuals would generate an estimated €118,284 p.p. over their lifetime. The elimination of AHP attacks could also lead to reductions in disability payments of €179,184 p.p. and healthcare cost savings of €1,511,027 p.p.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to severe disability resulting from constant attacks, AHP patients with recurrent attacks incur significant public costs. Lifetime taxes paid are reduced as these attacks occur during peak earning and working years. In those patients, reducing AHP attacks can confer significant fiscal benefits for government, including reduced healthcare costs, reduced disability payments and improved tax revenue.

Comparing the Fiscal Consequences of Controlled and Uncontrolled Osteoarthritis Pain Applying a UK Public Economic Perspective

Background: Individuals experiencing osteoarthritis (OA) pain can pose significant costs for governments due to reduced work activity in these individuals and increasing reliance on public support benefits. In this analysis we capture the broader economic impact of OA pain by applying a government perspective, public economic framework to assess controlled and uncontrolled pain. Methods: We used a Markov model to compare labour market participation in people with uncontrolled OA hip or knee pain compared to a cohort with controlled OA pain. The likelihood of employment, long-term sickness, disability, and early retirement in those with controlled pain used publicly available UK data. The relative effect of uncontrolled OA pain on fiscal outcomes is drawn from peer reviewed publications reporting reduced work activity and reliance on public benefits for people with uncontrolled OA pain. Lost tax revenue was derived using UK tax rates and national insurance contributions applied to annual earnings. Social benefit rules were applied to calculate government financial support to individuals. Health-care costs were calculated based on estimates from an UK observational study. The base case analysis compared the projected lost tax revenue and transfer payments for a 50-year-old cohort with severe OA pain, retiring at age 65. Results: For a 50-year-old individual with moderate uncontrolled OA pain with 15-years remaining work expectancy, the model estimated a £62 383 reduction in employment earnings, a £24 307 reduction in tax contributions and a need for £16 034 in government benefits, compared to a person with controlled OA pain. In people with severe uncontrolled OA pain incremental foregone earnings were estimated to be £126 384, £44 925 were not paid through taxation and £25 829 were received in public benefits, compared to the controlled pain cohort. Health-care costs represented 13% and 12% of all OA-related fiscal cost in the moderate uncontrolled OA pain and severe uncontrolled OA pain comparison, respectively. Conclusions: For governments, maintaining an active workforce is paramount to maintaining economic growth and reducing spending on government programs. The approach described here can be used to augment cost-effectiveness models to inform a range of stakeholders of benefits attributed to controlled OA pain.

Estimating the government public economic benefits attributed to investing in assisted reproductive technology: a South African case study

Limited resources and high treatment costs are arguments often used in many public health systems in low- and middle-income countries to justify providing limited treatments for people with infertility. In this analysis, we apply a government public economic perspective to evaluate public subsidy for in-vitro fertilization (IVF) in South Africa. A fiscal model was developed that considered lifetime direct and indirect taxes paid and government transfers received by a child conceived by IVF. The model was constructed from public data sources and was adjusted for mortality, age-specific educational costs, participation in the informal economy, proportions of persons receiving social grants, and health costs. Based on current proportions of individuals receiving social grants and average payments, including education and health costs, we estimate each citizen will receive ZAR513,165 (USD35,587) in transfers over their lifetime. Based on inflated age-specific earnings, we estimate lifetime direct and indirect taxes paid per citizen of ZAR452,869 (USD31,405) and ZAR494,521 (USD34,294), respectively, which also includes adjustments for the proportions of persons participating in the informal economy. The lifetime net tax after deducting transfers was estimated to be ZAR434,225 (USD31,112) per person. Based on the average IVF investment cost needed to achieve one live birth, the fiscal return on investment (ROI) for the South African Government is 5.64. Varying the discount rate from 4% to 7%, the ROI ranged from 9.54 to 1.53, respectively. Positive economic benefits can emanate from public financing of IVF. The fiscal analytic framework described here can be a useful approach for health services to evaluate future public economic benefits.

Comparing the Analysis and Results of a Modified Social Accounting Matrix Framework with Conventional Methods of Reporting Indirect Non-Medical Costs

BACKGROUND

Assessing the societal perspective in economic evaluations of new interventions requires estimates of indirect non-medical costs caused by the disease. Different methods exist for measuring the labor input function as a surrogate for these costs. They rarely specify the effect of health on labor and who gains and who loses money. Social accounting matrix (SAM) is an established framework that evaluates public policies with multiple perspectives that could help.

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the use of a modified SAM to assess money flows between different economic agents resulting in economic transactions following policy changes of medical interventions.

METHODS

We compared conventional methods of measuring indirect non-medical costs related to rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands with a modified SAM framework. To compare the outcome of each method, we calculated returns on investment (ROI) as the net amount of money per euro invested in the vaccine. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out for each method, focusing on critical variables with the largest impact on indirect cost estimates.

RESULTS

The ROI was higher for the modified SAM (1.33) than for the conventional methods assessing income calculations (range - 0.178 to 1.22). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed wide distributions in the ROI estimates, with variation in the variable impact on the indirect cost results per method selected.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to conventional methods, the SAM approach provides detailed and comprehensive assessments of the impact of new interventions on the indirect non-medical costs and the financial interactions between agents, disclosing useful information for different stakeholders.

Estimating the public economic consequences of cardiovascular disease-attributable events and evolocumab treatment in Australia

BACKGROUND

Following cardiovascular events, individuals often make choices about their working life that pose fiscal costs for the government in relation to lost tax revenue, increasing disability or early retirement. We evaluate the fiscal consequences for the Australian Government in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients with low-density lipoprotein >3.3 mmol/L after the maximum tolerated doses of a statin or when contraindicated or intolerant to statins, compared to evolocumab added to the standard of care.

METHODS

The natural history of patients with ASCVD was evaluated using a multi-state Markov cohort model comparing evolocumab with current treatment practices. Published rates for the likelihood of being disabled and retiring prematurely in patients experiencing stroke or myocardial infarction were modeled. Reported government costs for annual disability payments and lost tax revenues from the nationally representative STINMOD + data set were used to estimate the fiscal consequences associated with attributable ASCVD events.

RESULTS

The incremental tax gain associated with evolocumab in someone aged 40, 50 or 60 results in additional tax revenues of Aus$15,716, Aus$9,810 and Aus$4,217, respectively. Cost-savings attributed to disability payments of Aus$3,483, Aus$2,495 and Aus$4,619 were observed in those aged 40, 50 and 60, respectively. The ratio of evolocumab to fiscal benefits indicates that up to 52% of evolocumab costs are offset by future lifetime taxes paid and reduced social benefits payments in those treated aged 40. The ratio of fiscal benefits to costs in treating those aged 50 and 60 were 37% and 31%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Applying a cross-sectorial government perspective budget impact assessment improves our understanding of fiscal changes attributed to ASCVD based on changes in premature mortality and work activity and how this influences lifetime tax contributions and public benefits. The main cost driver observed was associated with reduced ASCVD events that enabled people to remain productive and paying taxes.

Estimating the Fiscal Consequences of National Immunization Programs Using a "Government Perspective" Public Economic Framework

Infectious diseases can impose considerable mortality and morbidity for children and adult populations resulting in both short- and long-term fiscal costs for government. Traditionally, healthcare costs are the dominant consideration in economic evaluations of vaccines, which likely ignores many costs that fall on governments in relation to vaccine-preventable conditions. In recent years, fiscal health modeling has been proposed as a complementary approach to cost-effectiveness analysis for considering the broader consequences for governments attributed to vaccines. Fiscal modeling evaluates public health investments attributed to treatments or preventive interventions in the case of vaccination, and how these investments influence government public accounts. This involves translating morbidity and mortality outcomes that can lead to disability, associated costs, early retirement due to poor health, and death, which can result in lost tax revenue for government attributed to reduced lifetime productivity. To assess fiscal consequences of public health programs, discounted cash flow analysis can be used to translate how changes in morbidity and mortality influence transfer payments and changes in lifetime taxes paid based on initial health program investments. The aim of this review is to describe the fiscal health modeling framework in the context of vaccines and demonstrate key features of this approach and the role that public economic assessment of vaccines can make in understanding the broader economic consequences of investing in vaccination programs. In this review, we describe the theoretical foundations for fiscal modeling, the aims of fiscal model, the analytical outputs, and discuss the relevance of this framework for evaluating the economics of vaccines.

The fiscal consequences of public health investments in disease-modifying therapies for the treatment of multiple sclerosis in Sweden

Background and aims: The economic consequences of multiple sclerosis (MS) are broader than those observed within the health system. The progressive nature suggests that people will not be able to live a normal productive life and will gradually require public benefits to maintain living standards. This study investigates the public economic impact of MS and how investments in disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) influence the lifetime costs to government attributed to changes in lifetime tax revenue and disability benefits based on improved health status linked to delayed disease progression.Methods: Disease progression rates from previous MS Markov cohort models were applied to interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab using a public economic framework. The established relationship between expanded disability status scale and work-force participation, annual earnings, and disability rates for each DMT were applied. Subsequently, we assessed the effect of DMTs on discounted governmental costs consisting of health service costs, social insurance and disability costs, and changes in lifetime tax revenues.Results: Fiscal benefits attributed to informal care and community services savings for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were SEK340,387, SEK486,837, SEK257,330, and SEK958,852 compared to placebo, respectively. Tax revenue gains linked to changes in lifetime productivity for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were estimated to be SEK27,474, SEK39,659, SEK21,661, and SEK75,809, with combined fiscal benefits of cost savings and tax revenue increases of SEK410,039, SEK596,592, SEK326,939, and SEK1,208,023, respectively.Conclusion: The analysis described here illustrates the broader public economic benefits for government attributed to changes in disease status. The lifetime social insurance transfer costs were highest in non-treated patients, and lower social insurance costs were demonstrated with DMTs. These findings suggest that focusing cost-effectiveness analysis only on health costs will likely underestimate the value of DMTs.

Costs Analysis of Fibrin Sealant for Prevention of Anastomotic Leakage in Lower Colorectal Surgery

Introduction

Postoperative anastomotic leaks remain a common and serious complication of colorectal surgeries and are a major cause of mortality and morbidity of these procedures. Anastomotic leaks (AL) have been extensively studied; however, there has been no significant reduction in their prevalence over time. In addition, there is a significant economic burden from AL attributed to the need for repeat surgery, radiologic intervention and lengthened hospital stay. We conducted a comparative cost analysis of patients undergoing colorectal surgery with anastomosis, with the application of fibrin sealant (FS) to the sutured anastomosis versus not treating the sutured anastomosis with FS.

Methods

The deterministic decision-tree model was populated with clinical data including operating room time, hospitalization days, occurrence of AL, need for revision surgery, blood products and radiologic interventions to treat the AL in lower colorectal surgery. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify appropriate studies with these variables.

Results

The average cost per case treated lower colorectal surgery with fibrin sealant glue 10 mL Tisseel^® and those not treated with a fibrin sealant after suturing the anastomoses was €3233 and €4130, respectively, for resource expenses paid by the healthcare system. This would suggest potential savings of €897 per surgery, achieved through the application of FS to the sutured anastomosis for preventing AL following colorectal surgery.

Conclusion

Application of FS to the sutured anastomosis in lower colorectal surgery resulted in a decrease in post-operative AL, and cost savings based on a reduction in hospitalization days, a reduction needing: revision surgery, radiologic intervention and blood products to treat AL.

Estimating the money flow in the economy attributed to rotavirus disease and vaccination in the Netherlands using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework

Background: The economics of rotavirus gastroenteritis in infants <5 years old is well-known within healthcare. The financial consequences for families, employers and authorities are not so well explored. The present study evaluates how vaccine prevention changes money flows among those involved in the management of disease, and its consequences. Methods: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework has been developed reflecting the distribution of income and spending at equilibrium affected by rotavirus disease among all those concerned for 1 year. The data came from official sources and published literature. A comparison of the financial equilibrium between with and without a national rotavirus immunization program has been conducted, along with sensitivity analysis for the results. Results: The total financial cost difference at equilibrium between presence and absence of rotavirus vaccination was +€26.758 million over one year as a net economic surplus. The payment of vaccination (€19.194 million) by the government was offset by the increase in tax revenue (€14.561 million) and by the lower spending in treatment care (€7.998 million). Conclusion: Studying the financial flows between different transacting agents can demonstrate the financial burden of a disease and the benefits of its prevention on agents' income and spending.

Estimating the Fiscal Costs of Osteoporosis in Korea Applying a Public Economic Perspective

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis and attributable fractures are disruptive health events that can cause short and long-term cost consequences for families, health service and government. In this fracture-based scenario analysis we evaluate the broader public economic consequences for the Korean government based on fractures that can occur at 3 different ages.

METHODS

We developed a public economic modelling framework based on population averages in Korea for earnings, direct taxes, indirect taxes, disability payments, retirement, pension payments, and osteoporosis health costs. Applying a scenario analysis, we estimated the cumulative average per person fiscal consequences of osteoporotic fractures occurring at different ages 55, 65, and 75 compared to average non-fracture individuals of comparable ages to estimate resulting costs for government in relation to lost tax revenue, disability payments, pension costs, and healthcare costs. All costs are calculated between the ages of 50 to 80 in Korean Won (KRW) and discounted at 0.5%.

RESULTS

From the scenarios explored, fractures occurring at age 55 are most costly for government with increased disability and pension payments of KRW 26,048,400 and KRW 41,094,206 per person, respectively, compared to the non-fracture population. A fracture can result in reduction in lifetime direct and indirect taxes resulting in KRW 53,648,886 lost tax revenue per person for government compared to general population.

CONCLUSIONS

The fiscal consequences of osteoporotic fractures for government vary depending on the age at which they occur. Fiscal benefits for government are greater when fractures are prevented early due to the potential to prevent early retirement and keeping people in the labor force to the degree that is observed in non-fracture population.

Estimating the fiscal impact of rare diseases using a public economic framework: a case study applied to hereditary transthyretin-mediated (hATTR) amyloidosis

Background

A wide range of rare diseases can have fiscal impacts on government finances that extend beyond expected healthcare costs. Conditions preventing people from achieving national lifetime work averages will influence lifetime taxes paid and increase the likelihood of dependence on public income support. Consequently, interventions that influence projected lifetime work activity, morbidity and mortality can have positive and negative fiscal consequences for government. The aim of this study was to apply a public economic framework to a rare disease that takes into consideration a broad range of costs that are relevant to government in relation to transfers received and taxes paid. As a case study we constructed a simulation model to calculate the fiscal life course of an individual with hereditary transthyretin-mediated (hATTR) amyloidosis in The Netherlands. In this lethal disease different progressive disease scenarios occur, including polyneuropathy and/or cardiomyopathy.

Results

Due to progressive disability, health care resource use, and early death, hATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy receives more transfers from government compared to the general population. In a scenario where a patient is diagnoses with hATTR at age 45, an individual pays €180,812 less in lifetime taxes and receives incrementally €111,695 in transfers from the government, compared to a person without hATTR. Patients suffering from cardiomyopathy die after median 4 years. The health costs of this scenario are therefore lower than that of the other polyneuropathy-based scenarios.

Conclusions

The fiscal analysis illustrates how health conditions influence not only health costs, but also the cross-sectorial public economic burden attributed to lost tax revenues and public disability allowances. Due to the progressive nature of hATTR amyloidosis used in this study, public costs including disability increase as the disease progresses with reduced lifetime taxes paid. The results indicate that halting disease progression early in the disease course would generate fiscal benefits beyond health benefits for patients. This analysis highlights the fiscal consequences of diseases and the need for broader perspectives applied to evaluate health conditions. Conventional cost-effectiveness framework used by many health technology assessment agencies have well-documented limitations in the field of rare diseases and fiscal modeling should be a complementary approach to consider.

High burden and low awareness of toxoplasmosis in the United States

Toxoplasmosis, a disease with diverse clinical manifestations, caused by infection with the Apicomplexan parasite, Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii), is a major source of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Although toxoplasmosis prevalence and mortality have declined over the past two decades, the CDC considers this disease a neglected parasitic infection requiring public health action. Here, we overview the literature to bring attention to the prevalence of the disease in the United States, and high economic burden associated with the disease. The conclusions to be drawn are clear: there is low awareness and underestimation of the disease burden amongst healthcare professionals; a high economic burden associated with the disease; relapse rates to treatment represent additional mortality and morbidity and further costs for the healthcare system; and better treatments are necessary to combat this public health threat.

Patient and treatment pathways for toxoplasmosis in the United States: data analysis of the Vizient Health Systems Data from 2011 to 2017

Toxoplasmosis causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States (US). Clinical manifestations to toxoplasmosis vary and there is limited information on incidence or treatment patterns in the US. Treatment pathways for pyrimethamine-based regimens and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) for toxoplasmosis hospitalizations were investigated using the Vizient Health Systems inpatient and outpatient data. Between January 1^st, 2011 and December 31^st, 2017, 10,273 hospital visits from 4,736 unique patients received a primary or secondary ICD-9/ICD-10 diagnosis for toxoplasmosis. The projected annual hospital visits with a diagnosis of toxoplasmosis was 68,821, corresponding to a total annual incidence of 9,832 comprising ocular toxoplasmosis of 2,169, toxoplasmic encephalitis of 1,399, unspecified toxoplasmosis of 4,368, congenital toxoplasmosis of 381, multisystemic toxoplasmosis of 69 and other toxoplasmosis of 1,446. Only 16.3% of the study population received treatment with pyrimethamine-based regimens or TMP-SMX. Pyrimethamine-based regimens were used significantly more often than TMP-SMX in toxoplasmic encephalitis (88.7% vs 79.6%, p = 0.01), other toxoplasmosis (85.0% vs 79.2%, p = 0.04), and unspecified toxoplasmosis (87.6% vs 77.9%, p = 0.03) in hospitals with 300 beds or more. A significantly higher percentage of visits with TMP-SMX as first-line treatment switched to pyrimethamine-based regimens compared to visits initiated on pyrimethamine-based treatments (26.7% vs 4.1%, p < .001). Ocular toxoplasmosis patients receiving pyrimethamine-based therapy were more likely to be discharged home compared to TMP-SMC at rates of 72.4% and 55.2%, respectively. Our analysis of commercial insurance records suggest toxoplasmosis is undertreated. Overall, pyrimethamine-based regimens are favored over TMP-SMX, have higher rates of discharge home, and have lower switch rates.

Economic Analysis of Vaccination Programs: An ISPOR Good Practices for Outcomes Research Task Force Report

This report provides recommendations for budget holders and decision makers in high-, middle, and low-income countries requiring economic analyses of new vaccination programs to allocate scarce resources given budget constraints. ISPOR's Economic Evaluation of Vaccines Designed to Prevent Infectious Disease: Good Practices Task Force wrote guidelines for three analytic methods and solicited comments on them from external reviewers. Cost-effectiveness analyses use decision-analytic models to estimate cumulative changes in resource use, costs, and changes in quality- or disability-adjusted life-years attributable to changes in disease outcomes. Constrained optimization modeling uses a mathematical objective function to be optimized (e.g. disease cases avoided) for a target population for a set of interventions including vaccination programs within established constraints. Fiscal health modeling estimates changes in net present value of government revenues and expenditures attributable to changes in disease outcomes. The task force recommends that those designing economic analyses for new vaccination programs take into account the decision maker's policy objectives and country-specific decision context when estimating: uptake rate in the target population; vaccination program's impact on disease cases in the population over time using a dynamic transmission epidemiologic model; vaccination program implementation and operating costs; and the changes in costs and health outcomes of the target disease(s). The three approaches to economic analysis are complementary and can be used alone or together to estimate a vaccination program's economic value for national, regional, or subregional decision makers in high-, middle-, and low-income countries.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary prophylaxis for prevention of HIV-related toxoplasmic encephalitis relapse using trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole

A recent systematic literature and meta-analysis reported relative efficacy of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) for the treatment of toxoplasmic encephalitis (TE) in HIV-infected adults. Here, we estimated relapse rates during secondary prophylaxis with TMP-SMX, and further explored differences in relapse rates prior to introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and the widespread adoption of HAART. A systematic search of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials yielded 707 studies whereby 663 were excluded after abstract screening, and 38 were excluded after full review leaving 6 studies for extraction. We performed double data extraction with a third-party adjudicator. Study designs varied with only one randomized study, four prospective cohorts and one retrospective cohort. Relapse rates were transformed using the Freeman-Tukey method and pooled using both fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analysis models. The TMP-SMX relapse rate was 16.4% (95% CI = 6.2% to 30.3%) based on random-effects models. When the disaggregated pre-HAART studies (n = 4) were included, the relapse rate was 14.9% (random effects; 95% CI = 3.7% to 31.9%). Analysis of two post-HAART studies indicated a relapse rate of 19.2% (random effects; 95% CI = 2.8% to 45.6%). Comparing the relapse rates between pre- and post-HAART studies were contrary to what might be expected based on known benefits of HAART therapy in this population. Nevertheless, cautious interpretation is necessary considering the heterogeneity of the included studies and a limited number of subjects receiving TMP-SMX reported in the post-HAART era.

Estimating the public economic consequences of introducing varenicline smoking cessation therapy in South Korea using a fiscal analytic framework

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Smoking gives rise to many cross-sectorial public costs and benefits for government. Costs arise from increased healthcare spending and work-related social benefits, while smoking itself provides significant revenue for government from tobacco taxes. To better understand the public economic impact of smoking and smoking cessation therapies, this study developed a government perspective framework for assessing smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality and associated public costs. This framework includes changes in lifetime tax revenue and health costs, as well as changes in tobacco tax revenue, from fewer smokers.

METHODS

A modified generational accounting framework was developed to assess relationships between smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality and public economic consequences of smoking, including lifetime tax revenue gains/losses, government social transfers, and health spending. Based on the current prevalence of smoking in South Korean males, a cohort model was developed for smokers, former-smokers, and never-smokers. The model simulated the lifetime discounted fiscal transfers for different age cohorts in 5 year age bands, and the return on investment (ROI) from smoking cessation therapy.

RESULTS

Former smokers are estimated to generate higher lifetime earnings and direct tax revenues and lower lifetime healthcare costs due to the reduction of smoking-attributable mortality and morbidity compared to smokers, even after accounting for reduced tobacco taxes paid. Based on the costs of public investments in varenicline, this study estimated a ROI from 1.4-1.7, depending on treatment age, with higher ROI in younger cohorts, with an average ROI of 1.6 for those aged less than 65.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis suggests that reductions in smoking can generate positive public economic benefits for government, even after accounting for lost tobacco tax revenues. The results described here are likely applicable to countries having similar underlying smoking prevalence, comparable taxation rates, and social benefit protection provided to individuals with smoking-related conditions.

Assessing the costs and benefits of perioperative iron deficiency anemia management with ferric carboxymaltose in Germany

Background

Perioperative administration of ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) was previously shown to reduce both the need for transfusions and the hospital length of stay in patients with preoperative iron deficiency anemia (IDA). In this study, we estimated the economic consequences of perioperative administration using FCM vs usual care in patients with IDA from the perspective of a German hospital using decision-analytic modeling.

Materials and methods

The model was populated with clinical inputs (transfusion rates, blood units transfused, hospital length of stay) from a previously reported randomized trial comparing FCM vs usual care for managing IDA patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery. We applied a hospital perspective to all costs, excluding surgery-related costs in both treatment arms. One-way sensitivity analyses were undertaken to evaluate key drivers of cost analysis.

Results

The average costs per case treated using FCM compared to usual care were €2,461 and €3,246, respectively, for resource expenses paid by hospital per case. This would suggest potential savings achieved with preoperative intravenous iron treatment per patient of €786 per case. A sensitivity analysis varying the key input parameters indicated the cost analysis is most sensitive to changes in the length of stay and the cost of hospitalization per day.

Conclusion

Perioperative administration of FCM results in cost savings to hospitals based on reduced blood transfusions and length of stay following elective abdominal surgery.

Fiscal Impact of Smoking Cessation in Thailand: A Government Perspective Cost-Benefit Analysis

We evaluate the broader public economic consequences of investments in smoking cessation that change lifetime productivity, which can influence future government tax revenue and social transfer costs and health care spending. The analysis applies a government perspective framework for assessing the intergenerational relationships between morbidity and mortality and lifetime tax revenue and social transfers received. Applying smoking prevalence in Thailand, a cohort model was developed for smoker and former smokers to estimate impact on lifetime direct taxes and tobacco taxes paid. Age-specific earnings for males and wage appropriate tax rates were applied to estimate net taxes for smokers and former smokers. Introducing smoking cessation leads to lifetime public economic benefits of THB13 998 to THB43 356 per person depending on the age of introducing smoking cessation. Factoring in the costs of smoking cessation therapy, an average return on investment of 1.35 was obtained indicating fiscal surplus generated for government from the combined effect of increased tax revenues and of averting smoking-attributable health care costs.

Vaccination programs for older adults in an era of demographic change

OBJECTIVES

Populations are aging worldwide. This paper summarizes some of the challenges and opportunities due to the increasing burden of infectious diseases in an aging population.

RESULTS

Older adults typically suffer elevated morbidity from infectious disease, leading to increased demand for healthcare resources and higher healthcare costs. Preventive medicine, including vaccination can potentially play a major role in preserving the health and independence of older adults. However, this potential of widespread vaccination is rarely realized. Here, we give a brief overview of the problem, discuss concrete obstacles and the potential for expanded vaccination programs to promote healthy aging.

CONCLUSION

The increasing healthcare burden of infectious diseases expected in aging populations could, to a large extent, be reduced by achieving higher vaccination coverage among older adults. Vaccination can thus contribute to healthy aging, alongside healthy diet and physical exercise. The available evidence indicates that dedicated programs can achieve substantial improvements in vaccination coverage among older adults, but more research is required to assess the generalizability of the results achieved by specific interventions (see Additional file 1).

Cutaneous irritancy of an ibuprofen medicated plaster in healthy volunteers

OBJECTIVES

To assess the irritation and contact sensitization potential of a 200 mg ibuprofen medicated plaster.

METHODS

This double-blind, phase-1 placebo controlled study had two phases; the induction phase to evaluate the irritant potential of continuous application of the plaster, and the challenge phase to assess contact sensitivity (allergy). The cumulative irritancy potential was evaluated using an adaptation of the Shelanski method. Healthy adults (≥18 years of age) (N = 210) were treated simultaneously with one ibuprofen medicated and one placebo plaster applied in a randomized fashion to either the left or right side of the lower back. During the induction phase, plasters were applied on Days 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15, 17, and 19 and the final plaster removed on Day 22. At each scheduled visit plasters and applications sites were assessed for degree of adhesion and skin irritation (score of 1 = no irritation to 7 = strong reaction spreading beyond test sites), respectively. The challenge phase followed a two-week washout period. A plaster was applied on Day 36 for 48 h and assessment occurred on Days 38, 39, and 40.

RESULTS

The mean cumulative irritation score during the induction phase was lower for the ibuprofen medicated plaster than the placebo plaster (0.32 vs. 1.23, respectively). Three (1.4%) subjects experience a dermal reaction of grade ≥3 for the ibuprofen medicated plaster compared with 27 (12.7%) for the placebo plaster. Following challenge with ibuprofen or placebo plasters, 12 subjects (6.2%) with the ibuprofen medicated plaster and four (2.2%) with the placebo plaster had skin reaction of assessment grade higher than the induction phase. One subject for the ibuprofen and two for the placebo plaster had reactions with grade >2. No subjects showed an increase in sensitization on Day 39 or 40 compared with Day 38.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that the both the irritancy and contact sensitization of the ibuprofen medicated plaster is acceptable.

A Pharmacokinetic Study of an Ibuprofen Topical Patch in Healthy Male and Female Adult Volunteers

The pharmacokinetics of a novel locally applied ibuprofen topical patch was evaluated. Healthy subjects (n = 28) were administered a 200-mg ibuprofen patch every 24 hours for 5 days, and steady-state pharmacokinetics was determined. The amount of ibuprofen remaining in the patch following each patch removal was also assessed. The maximum steady-state drug concentration and area under the concentration curve from time 0 on day 5 (t = 0) to the 24-hours sample on day 6 were 514 ng/mL (95% CI 439 to 603 ng/mL) and 9.78 kg·h/mL (95% CI 8.43 to 11.4 kg·h/mL), respectively. Maximum ibuprofen concentration on day 5 occurred at 20 hours post-patch application. No evidence of drug accumulation was observed, and steady state was achieved between days 2 and 5. Ibuprofen levels attenuated rapidly to baseline within 24 hours after treatment discontinuation. The amount of ibuprofen remaining in the patch was high (≥80%). Treatment-emergent adverse events were generally mild, with the most prevalent being headache (n = 6; 21.4%). Only 4 TEAEs were considered related to the ibuprofen patch: paresthesia (n = 1), headache (n = 2), and pruritic rash (n = 1). The study found that the systematic absorption of ibuprofen from a 200-mg patch was low and that the levels of ibuprofen leaving the patch over a 24-hour period are consistent with levels required for therapeutic relief as shown in other studies.

Modeling the fiscal costs and benefits of alternative treatment strategies in the United Kingdom for chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes substantial direct health costs, but also impacts broader societal and governmental costs, such as tax revenue and social protection benefits. This study investigated the broader fiscal costs and benefits of curative interventions for chronic Hepatitis C (CHC) that allow individuals to avoid long-term HCV attributed health conditions.

METHODS

A prospective cohort model, assessing the long-term fiscal consequences of policy decisions, was developed for HCV infected individuals, following the generational accounting analytic framework that combines age-specific lifetime gross taxes paid and governmental transfers received (i.e. healthcare and social support costs). The analysis assessed the burden of a theoretical cohort of untreated HCV infected patients with the alternative of treating these patients with a highly efficacious curative intervention (ledipasvir/sofosbuvir [LDV/SOF]). It also compared treating patients at all fibrosis stages (Stages F0-F4) compared to late treatment (Stage F4).

RESULTS

Based on projected lifetime work activity and taxes paid, the treated cohort paid an additional £5,900 per patient compared to the untreated cohort. Lifetime government disability costs of £97,555 and £125,359 per patient for treated cohort vs no treatment cohort were estimated, respectively. Lifetime direct healthcare costs in the treated cohort were £32,235, compared to non-treated cohort of £26,424, with an incremental healthcare costs increase of £5,901 per patient. The benefit cost ratio (BCR) of total government benefits and savings relative to government treatment costs (including LDV/SOF) ranged from 1.8-5.6. Treating patients early resulted in 77% less disability costs, 43% lower healthcare costs, and 33% higher tax revenue.

CONCLUSION

The ability to cure Hepatitis C offers considerable fiscal benefits beyond direct medical costs and savings attributed to reduced disability costs, public allowances, and improved tax revenue. Changes in parameters, such as productivity, wage growth, and tax rates, can influence the conclusions described here.

Efficacy and tolerability of a new ibuprofen 200mg plaster in patients with acute sports-related traumatic blunt soft tissue injury/contusion

BACKGROUND

Ibuprofen is used for the treatment of non-serious pain. This study assessed the efficacy and safety of a new ibuprofen plaster for the treatment of pain associated with acute sports impact injuries/contusions.

METHODS

In this randomised, double-blind, multi-centre, placebo controlled, parallel group study, adults (n = 130; 18-58 years of age) diagnosed with acute sports-related blunt soft tissue injury/contusion were randomized to receive either ibuprofen 200 mg plaster or placebo plaster. Plasters were administered once daily for five consecutive days. The primary assessment was area under the visual analogue scale (VAS) of pain on movement (POM) over 0 to three days (VAS AUC_0-3d). Other endpoints included algometry AUC from 0 to three days (AUC_0-3d) and 0 to five days (AUC_0-5d), to evaluate improvement of sensitivity at the injured site, and patient and investigator global assessment of efficacy. Safety was monitored throughout the study.

RESULTS

The ibuprofen plaster resulted in superior reduction in AUC_0-3d compared with placebo; the Least Squares (LS) mean difference was 662.82 mm*h in favour of the ibuprofen 200mg plaster (P = 0.0011). The greater improvement in VAS AUC of POM was also observed after 12 h, 24 h, and five days of therapy. Tenderness also significantly improved with the ibuprofen plaster compared with placebo; LS mean difference in algometry/tenderness AUC_0-3d was 1.87 N/cm²*d and AUC_0-5d was 1.87 N/cm²*d (P values ≤0.0004). At all study timepoints, a greater percentage of patients and investigators rated the effectiveness of the ibuprofen 200 mg plaster as good/excellent than the placebo plaster. Treatment-emergent adverse events for the ibuprofen plaster were few (≤1.5%) and were mild in severity.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study indicate 200 mg plaster is effective and safe for the treatment of pain due to acute sports-related traumatic blunt soft tissue injury/contusion in adults.

Efficacy and safety assessment of acute sports-related traumatic soft tissue injuries using a new ibuprofen medicated plaster: results from a randomized controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the efficacy and safety of a recently developed ibuprofen medicated plaster in the treatment of acute sports impact injuries/contusions.

METHODS

In this double-blind, multi-center, placebo-controlled, parallel group, phase 3 study (EudraCT Number: 2012-003257-2) patients (n = 132; ages 18 to 60 years) diagnosed with acute sports-related traumatic blunt soft tissue injury/contusion to the upper or lower limbs were randomized to receive either ibuprofen 200 mg plaster (n = 64) or placebo plaster (n = 68). Plasters were administered once daily for five consecutive days. The primary assessment was the area under the curve (AUC) of the visual analogue scale (VAS) of pain on movement (POM) over 0 to 72 h (VAS_0-72).

RESULTS

The ibuprofen medicated plaster was associated with a reduction in pain on movement (POM) based on lower VAS AUC_0-72h (2399.4 mm*h) compared with placebo (4078.9 mm*h) (least squares mean difference: - 1679.5 mm*h; P < 0.0001). The reduction in AUC of POM was also significantly greater for the ibuprofen medicated plaster compared with placebo at 12, 48, 24, and 120 h (P < 0.0001). Algometry/tenderness measurements found that the ibuprofen medicated plaster was associated with greater reduction in tenderness/pain than placebo at each timepoint (P values <0.0001). Seven patients experienced drug-related adverse events (n = 1 [1.6%] for the ibuprofen plaster, and n = 6 [8.8%] for placebo). All drug-related AEs were administration site reactions and were mild in intensity.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study indicate that ibuprofen medicated plaster results in rapid and clinically relevant reduction of pain in patients suffering from blunt musculoskeletal injuries or recurrent pain. The ibuprofen medicated plaster was well tolerated.

Cutaneous irritancy of an ibuprofen medicated plaster in healthy volunteers

OBJECTIVE

Ibuprofen is a commonly used non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug administered to treat injuries, joint pain, and recurrent muscular skeletal pain. The aim of this study was to determine the cutaneous irritancy of a medicated ibuprofen plaster compared with a placebo plaster in healthy volunteers.

METHODS

Healthy volunteers (N = 31) were treated at the same time with one ibuprofen and one placebo plaster. The ibuprofen and placebo plaster were applied in a randomized fashion to sites on the left or right side of subjects' lower backs. At each scheduled visit, the plasters and applications sites were assessed for degree of adhesion and skin irritancy, respectively. The plasters were applied on study Days 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15, 17, and 19, with final plaster removal on Day 22.

RESULTS

The ibuprofen medicated plaster compared with placebo had a lower percentage of Grade 1 (23.3% vs. 46.7%, respectively), Grade 2 (10% vs. 20%), and ≥Grade 3 (3% vs. 16.1%) irritancy scores after 21 days of application. The mean irritation score across the study was 0.40 for the ibuprofen medicated plaster and 1.18 for the placebo plaster. The irritation score on Day 22 of the study was 0.53 for the ibuprofen medicated plaster and 1.50 for placebo. The placebo plaster was associated with a higher number of stopped applications due to Grade 3 or above skin reactions compared with the ibuprofen medicated plaster (5 vs. 1, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The ibuprofen medicated plaster was well tolerated and was associated with lower irritancy than the placebo plaster.

A comparison of average wages with age-specific wages for assessing indirect productivity losses: analytic simplicity versus analytic precision

OBJECTIVES

Numerous approaches are used to estimate indirect productivity losses using various wage estimates applied to poor health in working aged adults. Considering the different wage estimation approaches observed in the published literature, we sought to assess variation in productivity loss estimates when using average wages compared with age-specific wages.

METHODS

Published estimates for average and age-specific wages for combined male/female wages were obtained from the UK Office of National Statistics. A polynomial interpolation was used to convert 5-year age-banded wage data into annual age-specific wages estimates. To compare indirect cost estimates, average wages and age-specific wages were used to project productivity losses at various stages of life based on the human capital approach. Discount rates of 0, 3, and 6 % were applied to projected age-specific and average wage losses.

RESULTS

Using average wages was found to overestimate lifetime wages in conditions afflicting those aged 1-27 and 57-67, while underestimating lifetime wages in those aged 27-57. The difference was most significant for children where average wage overestimated wages by 15 % and for 40-year-olds where it underestimated wages by 14 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Large differences in projecting productivity losses exist when using the average wage applied over a lifetime. Specifically, use of average wages overestimates productivity losses between 8 and 15 % for childhood illnesses. Furthermore, during prime working years, use of average wages will underestimate productivity losses by 14 %. We suggest that to achieve more precise estimates of productivity losses, age-specific wages should become the standard analytic approach.

The Fiscal Consequences Attributed to Changes in Morbidity and Mortality Linked to Investments in Health Care: A Government Perspective Analytic Framework

Governments have an enormous economic and political stake in the health of their populations. Population health is not only fundamental to economic growth but also affects short-term and long-term government expenditure on health care, disability, and other social programs and influences direct and indirect tax receipts. Fiscal transfers between citizen and state are mostly ignored in conventional welfare economics analyses based on the hypothesis that there are no winners or losers through transference of wealth. However, from the government perspective, this position is flawed, as disability costs and lost taxes attributed to poor health and reduced productive output represent real costs that pose budgetary and growth implications. To address the value of health and health care investments for government, we have developed a fiscal health analytic framework that captures how changes in morbidity and mortality influence tax revenue and transfer costs (e.g., disability, allowances, ongoing health costs). The framework can be used to evaluate the marginal impact of discrete investments or a mix of interventions in health care to inform governmental budgetary consequences. In this context, the framework can be considered as a fiscal budget impact and/or cost-benefit analysis model that accounts for how morbidity and mortality linked to specific programs represent both ongoing costs and tax revenue for government. Mathematical models identical to those used in cost-effectiveness analyses can be employed in fiscal analysis to reflect how disease progression influences public accounts (e.g., tax revenue and transfers).

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA): testing a proposed MCDA framework for orphan drugs

Background

Since the introduction of the orphan drugs legislation in Europe, it has been suggested that the general method of assessing drugs for reimbursement is not necessarily suitable for orphan drugs. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence indicated that several criteria other than cost and efficacy could be considered in reimbursement decisions for orphan drugs. This study sought to explore the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework proposed by (Orphanet J Rare Dis 7:74, 2012) to a range of orphan drugs, with a view to comparing the aggregate scores to the average annual cost per patient for each product, and thus establishing the merit of MCDA as a tool for assessing the value of orphan drugs in relation to their pricings.

Methods

An MCDA framework was developed using the nine criteria proposed by (Orphanet J Rare Dis 7:74, 2012) for the evaluation of orphan drugs, using the suggested numerical scoring system on a scale of 1 to 3 for each criterion. Correlations between the average annual cost of the drugs and aggregate MCDA scores were tested and plotted graphically. Different weightings for each of the attributes were also tested. A further analysis was conducted to test the impact of including the drug cost as an attribute in the aggregate index scores.

Results

In the drugs studied, the R², that statistically measures how close the data are to the fitted regression line was 0.79 suggesting a strong correlation between the drug scores and the average annual cost per patient.

Conclusion

Despite several limitations of the proposed model, this quantitative study provided insight into using MCDA and its relationship to the average annual costs of the products.

Toxoplasmic encephalitis relapse rates with pyrimethamine-based therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis

Toxoplasmic encephalitis (TE) is caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection and can be a life-threatening disease in immunocompromised patients. This study evaluated the rate of relapse associated with pyrimethamine-based maintenance therapy (i.e. secondary prophylaxis) in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or AIDs treated prior to and after the common use (i.e. 1996) of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) (pre-HAART and post-HAART, respectively). PubMed, Google Scholar, and Cochrane databases were searched to 6 June 2016 using search terms: pyrimethamine, Daraprim, Fansidar, Metakelfin, Fansimef, 5-(4-chlorophenyl)-6-ethyl-2,4-pyrimidinediamine, encephalitis, cerebral, toxoplasmosis, toxoplasmic, and gondii. Single-arm cohort, retrospective, and randomized studies were included. Twenty-six studies with 1,596 patients were included in the analysis; twenty pre-HAART (n = 1,228) studies and six post-HAART (n = 368) were performed. Pooled proportions test for pyrimethamine-based therapy from pre-HAART studies indicated a relapse rate of 19.2% and 18.9% from the fixed-effects and random-effects models, respectively. The relapse rate in the post-HAART studies was 11.1% (fixed and random effects). Continuous therapy was suggestive of lower incidence of relapse compared with intermittent therapy in the pre-HAART era (range, 18.7 to 17.3% vs. 20.9 to 25.6%, respectively). These findings indicate that the likelihood of relapse associated with pyrimethamine-based therepy in patients with HIV and TE decreased after the introduction of HAART to approximately 11%. The findings have important implications as relapse may affect a patient’s disease severity and prognosis, increase utilization of health care resources, and result in additional health care expenditure.