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Coffman E, Rappold AG, Nethery RC, Anderton J, Amend M, Jackson MA, Roman H, Fann N, Baker KR, Sacks JD. Quantifying Multipollutant Health Impacts Using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE): A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia. Environ Health Perspect 2024; 132:37003. [PMID: 38445893 PMCID: PMC10916644 DOI: 10.1289/ehp12969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Revised: 11/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Air pollution risk assessments do not generally quantify health impacts using multipollutant risk estimates, but instead use results from single-pollutant or copollutant models. Multipollutant epidemiological models account for pollutant interactions and joint effects but can be computationally complex and data intensive. Risk estimates from multipollutant studies are therefore challenging to implement in the quantification of health impacts. OBJECTIVES Our objective was to conduct a case study using a developmental multipollutant version of the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) to estimate the health impact associated with changes in multiple air pollutants using both a single and multipollutant approach. METHODS BenMAP-CE was used to estimate the change in the number of pediatric asthma emergency department (ED) visits attributable to simulated changes in air pollution between 2011 and 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia, applying risk estimates from an epidemiological study that examined short-term single-pollutant and multipollutant (with and without first-order interactions) exposures. Analyses examined individual pollutants (i.e., ozone, fine particulate matter, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter components) and combinations of these pollutants meant to represent shared properties or predefined sources (i.e., oxidant gases, secondary pollutants, traffic, power plant, and criteria pollutants). Comparisons were made between multipollutant health impact functions (HIF) and the sum of single-pollutant HIFs for the individual pollutants that constitute the respective pollutant groups. RESULTS Photochemical modeling predicted large decreases in most of the examined pollutant concentrations between 2011 and 2025 based on sector specific (i.e., source-based) estimates of growth and anticipated controls. Estimated number of avoided asthma ED visits attributable to any given multipollutant group were generally higher when using results from models that included interaction terms in comparison with those that did not. We estimated the greatest number of avoided pediatric asthma ED visits for pollutant groups that include NO 2 (i. e., criteria pollutants, oxidants, and traffic pollutants). In models that accounted for interaction, year-round estimates for pollutant groups that included NO 2 ranged from 27.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6, 52.7; traffic pollutants] to 55.4 (95% CI: 41.8, 69.0; oxidants) avoided pediatric asthma ED visits. Year-round results using multipollutant risk estimates with interaction were comparable to the sum of the single-pollutant results corresponding to most multipollutant groups [e.g., 52.9 (95% CI: 43.6, 62.2) for oxidants] but were notably lower than the sum of the single-pollutant results for some pollutant groups [e.g., 77.5 (95% CI: 66.0, 89.0) for traffic pollutants]. DISCUSSION Performing a multipollutant health impact assessment is technically feasible but computationally complex. It requires time, resources, and detailed input parameters not commonly reported in air pollution epidemiological studies. Results estimated using the sum of single-pollutant models are comparable to those quantified using a multipollutant model. Although limited to a single study and location, assessing the trade-offs between a multipollutant and single-pollutant approach is warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12969.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan Coffman
- Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Ana G. Rappold
- Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Rachel C. Nethery
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Jim Anderton
- Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Meredith Amend
- Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Henry Roman
- Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Kirk R. Baker
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Jason D. Sacks
- Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
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deSouza PN, Anenberg S, Fann N, McKenzie LM, Chan E, Roy A, Jimenez JL, Raich W, Roman H, Kinney PL. Evaluating the sensitivity of mortality attributable to pollution to modeling Choices: A case study for Colorado. Environ Int 2024; 185:108416. [PMID: 38394913 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2023] [Revised: 12/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024]
Abstract
We evaluated the sensitivity of estimated PM2.5 and NO2 health impacts to varying key input parameters and assumptions including: 1) the spatial scale at which impacts are estimated, 2) using either a single concentration-response function (CRF) or using racial/ethnic group specific CRFs from the same epidemiologic study, 3) assigning exposure to residents based on home, instead of home and work locations for the state of Colorado. We found that the spatial scale of the analysis influences the magnitude of NO2, but not PM2.5, attributable deaths. Using county-level predictions instead of 1 km2 predictions of NO2 resulted in a lower estimate of mortality attributable to NO2 by ∼ 50 % for all of Colorado for each year between 2000 and 2020. Using an all-population CRF instead of racial/ethnic group specific CRFs results in a 130 % higher estimate of annual mortality attributable for the white population and a 40 % and 80 % lower estimate of mortality attributable to PM2.5 for Black and Hispanic residents, respectively. Using racial/ethnic group specific CRFs did not result in a different estimation of NO2 attributable mortality for white residents, but led to ∼ 50 % lower estimates of mortality for Black residents, and 290 % lower estimate for Hispanic residents. Using NO2 based on home instead of home and workplace locations results in a smaller estimate of annual mortality attributable to NO2 for all of Colorado by 2 % each year and 0.3 % for PM2.5. Our results should be interpreted as an exercise to make methodological recommendations for future health impact assessments of pollution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priyanka N deSouza
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO, USA; CU Population Center, University of Colorado Boulder, CO, USA; Senseable City Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA.
| | - Susan Anenberg
- Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington D.C., USA
| | - Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USA
| | - Lisa M McKenzie
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz, Aurora, CO, USA
| | | | | | - Jose L Jimenez
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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Chan EAW, Fann N, Kelly JT. PM 2.5-Attributable Mortality Burden Variability in the Continental U.S. Atmos Environ (1994) 2023; 315:1-9. [PMID: 38299035 PMCID: PMC10829079 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.120131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2024]
Abstract
Epidemiologic studies have consistently observed associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and premature mortality. These studies use air quality concentration information from a combination of sources to estimate pollutant exposures and then assess how mortality varies as a result of differing exposures. Health impact assessments then typically use a single log-linear hazard ratio (HR) per health outcome to estimate counts of avoided human health effects resulting from air quality improvements. This paper estimates the total PM2.5-attributable premature mortality burden using a variety of methods for estimating exposures and quantifying PM2.5-attributable deaths in 2011 and 2028. We use: 1) several exposure models that apply a wide range of methods, and 2) a variety of HRs from the epidemiologic literature that relate long-term PM2.5 exposures to mortality among the U.S. population. We then further evaluate the variability of aggregated national premature mortality estimates to stratification by race and/or ethnicity or exposure level (e.g., below the current annual PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards). We find that unstratified annual adult mortality burden incidence estimates vary more (e.g., ~3-fold) by HR than by exposure model (e.g., <10%). In addition, future mortality burden estimates stratified by race/ethnicity are larger than the unstratified estimates of the entire population, and studies that stratify PM2.5-attributable mortality HRs by an exposure concentration threshold led to substantially higher estimates. These results are intended to provide transparency regarding the sensitivity of mortality estimates to upstream input choices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth A W Chan
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - James T Kelly
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
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McDuffie EE, Sarofim MC, Raich W, Jackson M, Roman H, Seltzer K, Henderson BH, Shindell DT, Collins M, Anderton J, Barr S, Fann N. The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions. Earths Future 2023; 11:10.1029/2023ef003853. [PMID: 37941800 PMCID: PMC10631284 DOI: 10.1029/2023ef003853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/25/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Atmospheric methane directly affects surface temperatures and indirectly affects ozone, impacting human welfare, the economy, and environment. The social cost of methane (SC-CH4) metric estimates the costs associated with an additional marginal metric ton of emissions. Current SC-CH4 estimates do not consider the indirect impacts associated with ozone production from changes in methane. We use global model simulations and a new BenMAP webtool to estimate respiratory-related deaths associated with increases in ozone from a pulse of methane emissions in 2020. By using an approach consistent with the current SC-CH4 framework, we monetize and discount annual damages back to present day values. We estimate that the methane-ozone mechanism is attributable to 760 (95% CI: 330-1200) respiratory-related deaths per million metric tons of methane globally, for a global net present damage of $1800/mT (95% CI: $760-$2800/Mt CH4; 2% Ramsey discount rate); this would double the current SC-CH4 if included. These physical impacts are consistent with recent studies, but comparing direct costs is challenging. Economic damages are sensitive to uncertainties in the exposure and health risks associated with tropospheric ozone, assumptions about future projections of NOx emissions, socioeconomic conditions, and mortality rates, monetization parameters, and other factors. Our estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainties in ozone health risks. We also develop a reduced form model to test sensitivities to other parameters. The reduced form tool runs with a user-supplied emissions pulse, as well as socioeconomic and precursor projections, enabling future integration of the methane-ozone mechanism into the SC-CH4 modeling framework.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin E McDuffie
- Office of Atmospheric Protection, Climate Change Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Marcus C Sarofim
- Office of Atmospheric Protection, Climate Change Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA
| | - William Raich
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | | | - Henry Roman
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Karl Seltzer
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Quality Assessment Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Barron H Henderson
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Quality Assessment Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Drew T Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Mei Collins
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Jim Anderton
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Sarah Barr
- Office of Atmospheric Protection, Climate Change Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Health and Environmental Impacts Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
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Simon H, Baker KR, Sellers J, Amend M, Penn SL, Bankert J, Chan EAW, Fann N, Jang C, McKinley G, Zawacki M, Roman H. Evaluating reduced-form modeling tools for simulating ozone and PM 2.5 monetized health impacts. Environ Sci Atmos 2023; 19:1-13. [PMID: 37590244 PMCID: PMC10425884 DOI: 10.1039/d3ea00092c] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/19/2023]
Abstract
Reduced-form modeling approaches are an increasingly popular way to rapidly estimate air quality and human health impacts related to changes in air pollutant emissions. These approaches reduce computation time by making simplifying assumptions about pollutant source characteristics, transport and chemistry. Two reduced form tools used by the Environmental Protection Agency in recent assessments are source apportionment-based benefit per ton (SA BPT) and source apportionment-based air quality surfaces (SABAQS). In this work, we apply these two reduced form tools to predict changes in ambient summer-season ozone, ambient annual PM2.5 component species and monetized health benefits for multiple sector-specific emission control scenarios: on-road mobile, electricity generating units (EGUs), cement kilns, petroleum refineries, and pulp and paper facilities. We then compare results against photochemical grid and standard health model-based estimates. We additionally compare monetized PM2.5 health benefits to values derived from three reduced form tools available in the literature: the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP), Air Pollution Emission Experiments and Policy Analysis (APEEP) version 2 (AP2) and Estimating Air pollution Social Impact Using Regression (EASIUR). Ozone and PM2.5 changes derived from SABAQS for EGU scenarios were well-correlated with values obtained from photochemical modeling simulations with spatial correlation coefficients between 0.64 and 0.89 for ozone and between 0.75 and 0.94 for PM2.5. SABAQS ambient ozone and PM2.5 bias when compared to photochemical modeling predictions varied by emissions scenario: SABAQS PM2.5 changes were overpredicted by up to 46% in one scenario and underpredicted by up to 19% in another scenario; SABAQS seasonal ozone changes were overpredicted by 34% to 83%. All tools predicted total PM2.5 benefits within a factor of 2 of the full-form predictions consistent with intercomparisons of reduced form tools available in the literature. As reduced form tools evolve, it is important to continue periodic comparison with comprehensive models to identify systematic biases in estimating air pollution impacts and resulting monetized health benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather Simon
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Kirk R Baker
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Jennifer Sellers
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | | | | | | | - Elizabeth A W Chan
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Neal Fann
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Carey Jang
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Gobeail McKinley
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Margaret Zawacki
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI
| | - Henry Roman
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, Cambridge, MA
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Fann N, Coffman E, Jackson M, Jhun I, Lamichhane A, Nolte CG, Roman H, Sacks JD. The Role of Temperature in Modifying the Risk of Ozone-Attributable Mortality under Future Changes in Climate: A Proof-of-Concept Analysis. Environ Sci Technol 2022; 56:1202-1210. [PMID: 34965106 PMCID: PMC9359214 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c05975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Air pollution risk assessments typically estimate ozone-attributable mortality counts using concentration-response (C-R) parameters from epidemiologic studies that treat temperature as a potential confounder. However, some recent epidemiologic studies have indicated that temperature can modify the relationship between short-term ozone exposure and mortality, which has potentially important implications when considering the impacts of climate change on public health. This proof-of-concept analysis quantifies counts of temperature-modified ozone-attributable mortality using temperature-stratified C-R parameters from a multicity study in which the pooled ozone-mortality effect coefficients change in concert with daily temperature. Meteorology downscaled from two global climate models is used with a photochemical transport model to simulate ozone concentrations over the 21st century using two emission inventories: one holding air pollutant emissions constant at 2011 levels and another accounting for reduced emissions through the year 2040. The late century climate models project increased summer season temperatures, which in turn yields larger total counts of ozone-attributable deaths in analyses using temperature-stratified C-R parameters compared to the traditional temperature confounder approach. This analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude and distribution of the temperature-stratified ozone-attributable mortality results, which is a function of regional variability in both the C-R relationship and the model-predicted temperature and ozone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- U.S. EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park NC 27711 USA
| | - Evan Coffman
- U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, Research
Triangle Park, NC 27711 USA
| | | | - Iny Jhun
- Stanford Health Care, San Francisco, CA 94305 USA
| | - Archana Lamichhane
- U.S. EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park NC 27711 USA
| | - Christopher G. Nolte
- U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, Research
Triangle Park, NC 27711 USA
| | - Henry Roman
- Industrial Economics Inc, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA
| | - Jason D. Sacks
- U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, Research
Triangle Park, NC 27711 USA
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Kim SY, Pope AC, Marshall JD, Fann N, Sheppard L. Reanalysis of the association between reduction in long-term PM 2.5 concentrations and improved life expectancy. Environ Health 2021; 20:102. [PMID: 34517898 PMCID: PMC8439090 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-021-00785-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Much of the current evidence of associations between long-term PM2.5 and health outcomes relies on national or regional analyses using exposures derived directly from regulatory monitoring data. These findings could be affected by limited spatial coverage of monitoring data, particularly for time periods before spatially extensive monitoring began in the late 1990s. For instance, Pope et al. (2009) showed that between 1980 and 2000 a 10 μg/m3 reduction in PM2.5 was associated with an average 0.61 year (standard error (SE) = 0.20) longer life expectancy. That analysis used 1979-1983 averages of PM2.5 across 51 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) computed from about 130 monitoring sites. Our reanalysis re-examines this association using modeled PM2.5 in order to assess population- or spatially-representative exposure. We hypothesized that modeled PM2.5 with finer spatial resolution provides more accurate health effect estimates compared to limited monitoring data. METHODS We used the same data for life expectancy and confounders, as well as the same analysis models, and investigated the same 211 continental U.S. counties, as Pope et al. (2009). For modeled PM2.5, we relied on a previously-developed point prediction model based on regulatory monitoring data for 1999-2015 and back-extrapolation to 1979. Using this model, we predicted annual average concentrations at centroids of all 72,271 census tracts and 12,501 25-km national grid cells covering the contiguous U.S., to represent population and space, respectively. We averaged these predictions to the county for the two time periods (1979-1983 and 1999-2000), whereas the original analysis used MSA averages given limited monitoring data. Finally, we estimated regression coefficients for PM2.5 reduction on life expectancy improvement over the two periods, adjusting for area-level confounders. RESULTS A 10 μg/m3 decrease in modeled PM2.5 based on census tract and national grid predictions was associated with 0.69 (standard error (SE) = 0.31) and 0.81 (0.29) -year increases in life expectancy. These estimates are higher than the estimate of Pope et al. (2009); they also have larger SEs likely because of smaller variability in exposure predictions, a standard property of regression. Two sets of effect estimates, however, had overlapping confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS Our approach for estimating population- and spatially-representative PM2.5 concentrations based on census tract and national grid predictions, respectively, provided generally consistent findings to the original findings using limited monitoring data. This finding lends additional support to the evidence that reduced fine particulate matter contributes to extended life expectancy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sun-Young Kim
- Department of Cancer Control and Population Health, Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Gyeonggi Korea
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Arden C. Pope
- Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT USA
| | - Julian D. Marshall
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, Durham, NC USA
| | - Lianne Sheppard
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
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Bielen DA, Macpherson AJ, Simon H, Fann N. CABOT-O 3: An Optimization Model for Air Quality Benefit-Cost and Distributional Impacts Analysis. Environ Sci Technol 2020; 54:13370-13378. [PMID: 33086005 PMCID: PMC8358824 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c01053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Macpherson et al. (2017) presented a mathematical programming model that identifies minimum-cost control strategies that reduce emissions regionally to meet ambient air quality targets. This project introduces the Cost And Benefit Optimization Tool for Ozone (CABOT-O3), which extends the previous model by updating emissions and air quality relationships, adding a health impacts module, and quantifying distributional impacts. The tool draws upon source apportionment photochemical air quality modeling to characterize the contribution of emissions reductions to ambient ozone concentrations across the contiguous United States. The health impacts analysis module estimates the change in the number and economic value of premature deaths using modeled changes in ozone levels resulting from the application of emission control strategies. These extensions allow us to evaluate strategies to attain ozone air quality standards at minimum cost or to maximize net benefit, while assessing the change in the distribution of health impacts. In a case study applied to stationary pollution sources, we find that, when compared to minimizing costs to meet a uniform ozone standard, maximizing net benefits results in greater emissions and ozone concentration reductions in some parts of the country and fewer in others. Our results highlight potential equity-efficiency trade-offs in designing air quality policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- David A Bielen
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, United States
| | - Alexander J Macpherson
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, United States
| | - Heather Simon
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, United States
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, United States
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Davidson K, Fann N, Zawacki M, Fulcher C, Baker KR. The recent and future health burden of the U.S. mobile sector apportioned by source. Environ Res Lett 2020; 15:10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a8. [PMID: 33868452 PMCID: PMC8048113 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Mobile sources emit particulate matter as well as precursors to particulate matter (PM2.5) and ground-level ozone, pollutants known to adversely impact human health. This study uses source-apportionment photochemical air quality modeling to estimate the health burden (expressed as incidence) of an array of PM2.5- and ozone-related adverse health impacts, including premature death, attributable to 17 mobile source sectors in the US in 2011 and 2025. Mobile sector-attributable air pollution contributes a substantial fraction of the overall pollution-related mortality burden in the U.S., accounting for about 20% of the PM2.5 and ozone-attributable deaths in 2011 (between 21 000 and 55 000 deaths, depending on the study used to derive the effect estimate). This value falls to about 13% (between 13 000 and 37 000 deaths) by 2025 due to regulatory and voluntary programs reducing emissions from mobile sources. Similar trends across all morbidity health impacts can also be observed. Emissions from on-road sources are the largest contributor to premature deaths; this is true for both 2011 (between 12 000 and 31 000 deaths) and 2025 (between 6700 and 18 000 deaths). Non-road construction engines, C3 marine engines and emissions from rail also contribute to large portions of premature deaths. Across the 17 mobile sectors modeled, the PM2.5-attributable mortality and morbidity burden falls between 2011 and 2025 for 12 sectors and increases for 5. Ozone-attributable mortality and morbidity burden increases between 2011 and 2025 for 10 sectors and falls for 7. These results extend the literature beyond generally aggregated mobile sector health burden toward a representation of highly-resolved source characterization of both current and future health burden. The quantified future mobile source health burden is a novel feature of this analysis and could prove useful for decisionmakers and affected stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kenneth Davidson
- US EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Air 4-1 94105, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
| | - Neal Fann
- US EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, United States of America
| | - Margaret Zawacki
- US EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, United States of America
| | - Charles Fulcher
- US EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, United States of America
| | - Kirk R Baker
- US EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, United States of America
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Sacks JD, Fann N, Gumy S, Kim I, Ruggeri G, Mudu P. Quantifying the Public Health Benefits of Reducing Air Pollution: Critically Assessing the Features and Capabilities of WHO's AirQ+ and U.S. EPA's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP - CE). Atmosphere (Basel) 2020; 11:1-15. [PMID: 32802480 PMCID: PMC7425641 DOI: 10.3390/atmos11050516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Scientific evidence spanning experimental and epidemiologic studies has shown that air pollution exposures can lead to a range of health effects. Quantitative approaches that allow for the estimation of the adverse health impacts attributed to air pollution enable researchers and policy analysts to convey the public health impact of poor air quality. Multiple tools are currently available to conduct such analyses, which includes software packages designed by the World Health Organization (WHO): AirQ+, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA): Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP - CE), to quantify the number and economic value of air pollution-attributable premature deaths and illnesses. WHO's AirQ+ and U.S. EPA's BenMAP - CE are among the most popular tools to quantify these effects as reflected by the hundreds of peer-reviewed publications and technical reports over the past two decades that have employed these tools spanning many countries and multiple continents. Within this paper we conduct an analysis using common input parameters to compare AirQ+ and BenMAP - CE and show that the two software packages well align in the calculation of health impacts. Additionally, we detail the research questions best addressed by each tool.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason D. Sacks
- Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
- Correspondence: ; Tel. +1-919-541-9729 (J.D.S.); ; Tel. ++49(0)228 815 0434 (P.M.)
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
| | - Sophie Gumy
- Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Ingu Kim
- European Centre for Environment and Health, World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
| | - Giulia Ruggeri
- Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Pierpaolo Mudu
- European Centre for Environment and Health, World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
- Correspondence: ; Tel. +1-919-541-9729 (J.D.S.); ; Tel. ++49(0)228 815 0434 (P.M.)
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Viana M, Rizza V, Tobías A, Carr E, Corbett J, Sofiev M, Karanasiou A, Buonanno G, Fann N. Estimated health impacts from maritime transport in the Mediterranean region and benefits from the use of cleaner fuels. Environ Int 2020; 138:105670. [PMID: 32203802 PMCID: PMC8314305 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2019] [Revised: 03/05/2020] [Accepted: 03/16/2020] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Ship traffic emissions degrade air quality in coastal areas and contribute to climate impacts globally. The estimated health burden of exposure to shipping emissions in coastal areas may inform policy makers as they seek to reduce exposure and associated potential health impacts. This work estimates the PM2.5-attributable impacts in the form of premature mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions, from long-term exposure to shipping emissions. Health impact assessment (HIA) was performed in 8 Mediterranean coastal cities, using a baseline conditions from the literature and a policy case accounting for the MARPOL Annex VI rules requiring cleaner fuels in 2020. Input data were (a) shipping contributions to ambient PM2.5 concentrations based on receptor modelling studies found in the literature, (b) population and health incidence data from national statistical registries, and (c) geographically-relevant concentration-response functions from the literature. Long-term exposure to ship-sourced PM2.5 accounted for 430 (95% CI: 220-650) premature deaths per year, in the 8 cities, distributed between groups of cities: Barcelona and Athens, with >100 premature deaths/year, and Nicosia, Brindisi, Genoa, Venice, Msida and Melilla, with tens of premature deaths/year. The more stringent standards in 2020 would reduce the number of PM2.5-attributable premature deaths by 15% on average. HIA provided a comparative assessment of the health burden of shipping emissions across Mediterranean coastal cities, which may provide decision support for urban planning with a special focus on harbour areas, and in view of the reduction in sulphur content of marine fuels due to MARPOL Annex VI in 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Viana
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain.
| | - V Rizza
- Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino (FR), Italy
| | - A Tobías
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - E Carr
- Energy and Environmental Research Associates, LLC, Pittsford, NY, United States
| | - J Corbett
- College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, United States
| | - M Sofiev
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland
| | - A Karanasiou
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - G Buonanno
- Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino (FR), Italy; Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - N Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, United States
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12
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Nassikas N, Spangler K, Fann N, Nolte CG, Dolwick P, Spero TL, Sheffield P, Wellenius GA. Ozone-related asthma emergency department visits in the US in a warming climate. Environ Res 2020; 183:109206. [PMID: 32035409 PMCID: PMC7167359 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2019] [Revised: 01/29/2020] [Accepted: 01/30/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Ozone exposure is associated with higher risk of asthma-related emergency department visits. The meteorological conditions that govern ozone concentration are projected to be more favorable to ozone formation over much of the United States due to continued climate change, even as emissions of anthropogenic ozone precursors are expected to decrease by 2050. Our goal is to quantify the health benefits of a climate change mitigation scenario versus a "business-as-usual" scenario, defined by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, using the health impact analytical program Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP - CE) to project the number of asthma ED visits in 2045-2055. We project an annual average of 3100 averted ozone-related asthma ED visits during the 2045-2055 period under RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5, with all other factors held constant, which translates to USD $1.7 million in averted costs annually. We identify counties with tens to hundreds of avoided ozone-related asthma ED visits under RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5. Overall, we project a heterogeneous distribution of ozone-related asthma ED visits at different spatial resolutions, specifically national, regional, and county levels, and a substantial net health and economic benefit of climate change mitigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas Nassikas
- Department of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, Brown University Alpert Medical School, Providence, RI, 02903, USA.
| | - Keith Spangler
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, 02912, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, 02903, USA; Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, RI, 02912, USA
| | - Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709, USA
| | - Christopher G Nolte
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709, USA
| | - Patrick Dolwick
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709, USA
| | - Tanya L Spero
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709, USA
| | - Perry Sheffield
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York City, NY, 10029, USA
| | - Gregory A Wellenius
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, 02903, USA
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Baker KR, Amend M, Penn S, Bankert J, Simon H, Chan E, Fann N, Zawacki M, Davidson K, Roman H. A database for evaluating the InMAP, APEEP, and EASIUR reduced complexity air-quality modeling tools. Data Brief 2020; 28:104886. [PMID: 31872009 PMCID: PMC6911961 DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2019.104886] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2019] [Revised: 11/15/2019] [Accepted: 11/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Policy analysts and researchers often use models to translate expected emissions changes from pollution control policies to estimates of air pollution changes and resulting changes in health impacts. These models can include both photochemical Eulerian grid models or reduced complexity models; these latter models make simplifying assumptions about the emissions-to-air quality relationship as a means of reducing the computational time needed to simulate air quality. This manuscript presents a new database of photochemical- and reduced complexity-modelled changes in annual average particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm and associated health effects and economic values for five case studies representing different emissions control scenarios. The research community is developing an increasing number of reduced complexity models as lower-cost and more expeditious alternatives to full form Eulerian photochemical grid models such as the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model with eXtensions (CAMx) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. A comprehensive evaluation of reduced complexity models can demonstrate the extent to which these tools capture complex chemical and physical processes when representing emission control options. Systematically comparing reduced complexity model predictions to benchmarks from photochemical grid models requires a consistent set of input parameters across all systems. Developing such inputs is resource intensive and consequently the data that we have developed and shared (https://github.com/epa-kpc/RFMEVAL) provide a valuable resource for others to evaluate reduced complexity models. The dataset includes inputs and outputs representing 5 emission control scenarios, including sector-based regulatory policy scenarios focused on on-road mobile sources and electrical generating units (EGUs) as well as hypothetical across-the-board reductions to emissions from cement kilns, refineries, and pulp and paper facilities. Model inputs, outputs, and run control files are provided for the Air Pollution Emission Experiments and Policy Analysis (APEEP) version 2 and 3, Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP), Estimating Air pollution Social Impact Using Regression (EASIUR), and EPA's source apportionment benefit-per-ton reduced complexity models. For comparison, photochemical grid model annual average PM2.5 output is provided for each emission scenario. Further, inputs are also provided for the Environmental Benefits and Mapping Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool to generate county level health benefits and monetized health damages along with output files for benchmarking and intercomparison. Monetized health impacts are also provided from EASIUR and APEEP which can provide these outside the BenMAP-CE framework. The database will allow researchers to more easily compare reduced complexity model predictions against photochemical grid model predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirk R. Baker
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | | | - Stefani Penn
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | | | - Heather Simon
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Elizabeth Chan
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | | | - Ken Davidson
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Henry Roman
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, Cambridge, MA, USA
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES To demonstrate the benefits-mapping software Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE), which integrates local air quality data with previously published concentration-response and health-economic valuation functions to estimate the health effects of changes in air pollution levels and their economic consequences. METHODS We illustrate a local health impact assessment of ozone changes in the 10-county nonattainment area of the Dallas-Fort Worth region of Texas, estimating the short-term effects on mortality predicted by 2 scenarios for 3 years (2008, 2011, and 2013): an incremental rollback of the daily 8-hour maximum ozone levels of all area monitors by 10 parts per billion and a rollback-to-a-standard ambient level of 65 parts per billion at only monitors above that level. RESULTS Estimates of preventable premature deaths attributable to ozone air pollution obtained by the incremental rollback method varied little by year, whereas those obtained by the rollback-to-a-standard method varied by year and were sensitive to the choice of ordinality and the use of preloaded or imported data. CONCLUSIONS BenMAP-CE allows local and regional public health analysts to generate timely, evidence-based estimates of the health impacts and economic consequences of potential policy options in their communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martha L Carvour
- Martha L. Carvour and Robert W. Haley are with the Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Amy E. Hughes is with the Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Neal Fann is with the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Amy E Hughes
- Martha L. Carvour and Robert W. Haley are with the Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Amy E. Hughes is with the Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Neal Fann is with the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Neal Fann
- Martha L. Carvour and Robert W. Haley are with the Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Amy E. Hughes is with the Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Neal Fann is with the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Robert W Haley
- Martha L. Carvour and Robert W. Haley are with the Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Amy E. Hughes is with the Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Neal Fann is with the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
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15
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Howard DB, Thé J, Soria R, Fann N, Schaeffer R, Saphores JDM. Health benefits and control costs of tightening particulate matter emissions standards for coal power plants - The case of Northeast Brazil. Environ Int 2019; 124:420-430. [PMID: 30682597 PMCID: PMC7227787 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.01.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2018] [Revised: 12/18/2018] [Accepted: 01/10/2019] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) caused an estimated 4.2 million deaths worldwide in 2015. However, PM emission standards for power plants vary widely. To explore if the current levels of these standards are sufficiently stringent in a simple cost-benefit framework, we compared the health benefits (avoided monetized health costs) with the control costs of tightening PM emission standards for coal-fired power plants in Northeast (NE) Brazil, where ambient PM concentrations are below World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. We considered three Brazilian PM10 (PMx refers to PM with a diameter under x micrometers) emission standards and a stricter U.S. EPA standard for recent power plants. Our integrated methodology simulates hourly electricity grid dispatch from utility-scale power plants, disperses the resulting PM2.5, and estimates selected human health impacts from PM2.5 exposure using the latest integrated exposure-response model. Since the emissions inventories required to model secondary PM are not available in our study area, we modeled only primary PM so our benefit estimates are conservative. We found that tightening existing PM10 emission standards yields health benefits that are over 60 times greater than emissions control costs in all the scenarios we considered. The monetary value of avoided hospital admissions alone is at least four times as large as the corresponding control costs. These results provide strong arguments for considering tightening PM emission standards for coal-fired power plants worldwide, including in regions that meet WHO guidelines and in developing countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel B Howard
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
| | - Jesse Thé
- Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering, University of Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
| | - Rafael Soria
- Departmento de Ingeniería Mecánica, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Ladrón de Guevara E11·253, Quito, Pichincha EC 17-01-2759, Ecuador.
| | - Neal Fann
- National Expert and Team Lead for Assessing the Benefits of Air Quality, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, NC 27709, USA.
| | - Roberto Schaeffer
- Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
| | - Jean-Daniel M Saphores
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Economics, University of California, Irvine 92697, USA.
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Wolfe P, Davidson K, Fulcher C, Fann N, Zawacki M, Baker KR. Monetized health benefits attributable to mobile source emission reductions across the United States in 2025. Sci Total Environ 2019; 650:2490-2498. [PMID: 30296769 PMCID: PMC7259328 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2018] [Revised: 09/11/2018] [Accepted: 09/20/2018] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
By-products of mobile source combustion processes, such as those associated with gasoline- and diesel-powered engines, include direct emissions of particulate matter as well as precursors to particulate matter and ground-level ozone. Human exposure to fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) is associated with increased incidence of premature mortality and morbidity outcomes. This study builds upon recent, detailed source-apportionment air quality modeling to project the health-related benefits of reducing PM2.5 from mobile sources across the contiguous U.S. in 2025. Updating a previously published benefits analysis approach, we develop national-level benefit per ton estimates for directly emitted PM2.5, SO2/pSO4, and NOX for 16 mobile source sectors spanning onroad vehicles, nonroad engines and equipment, trains, marine vessels, and aircraft. These benefit per ton estimates provide a reduced-form tool for estimating and comparing benefits across multiple mobile source emission scenarios and can be applied to assess the benefits of mobile source policies designed to improve air quality. We found the benefit per ton of directly emitted PM2.5 in 2025 ranges from $110,000 for nonroad agriculture sources to $700,000 for onroad light duty gas cars and motorcycles (in 2015 dollars and based on an estimate of PM-related mortality derived from the American Cancer Society cohort study). Benefit per ton values for SO2/pSO4 range from $52,000 for aircraft sources (including emissions from ground support vehicles) to $300,000 for onroad light duty diesel emissions. Benefit per ton values for NOX range from $2100 for C1 and C2 marine vessels to $7500 for "nonroad all other" mobile sources, including industrial, logging, and oil field sources. Benefit per ton estimates increase approximately 2.26-fold when using an alternative concentration response function to derive PM2.5-related mortality. We also report benefit per ton values for the eastern and western U.S. to account for broad spatial heterogeneity patterns in emissions reductions, population exposure and air quality benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip Wolfe
- ORISE participant hosted by the US EPA, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, United States of America
| | - Kenneth Davidson
- US EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Air-6, San Francisco, CA 94105, United States of America.
| | - Charles Fulcher
- US EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, United States of America.
| | - Neal Fann
- US EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, United States of America.
| | - Margaret Zawacki
- US EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, United States of America.
| | - Kirk R Baker
- US EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, United States of America.
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Achakulwisut P, Anenberg SC, Neumann JE, Penn SL, Weiss N, Crimmins A, Fann N, Martinich J, Roman H, Mickley LJ. Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change. Geohealth 2019; 3:127-144. [PMID: 31276080 PMCID: PMC6605068 DOI: 10.1029/2019gh000187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2019] [Revised: 03/28/2019] [Accepted: 03/29/2019] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986-2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust-attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate-driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34-47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986-2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Susan C. Anenberg
- Milken Institute School of Public HealthGeorge Washington UniversityWashingtonDCUSA
| | | | | | | | | | - Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyResearch Triangle ParkNCUSA
| | | | | | - Loretta J. Mickley
- School of Engineering and Applied SciencesHarvard UniversityCambridgeMAUSA
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18
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Neumann JE, Anenberg SC, Weinberger KR, Amend M, Gulati S, Crimmins A, Roman H, Fann N, Kinney PL. Estimates of Present and Future Asthma Emergency Department Visits Associated With Exposure to Oak, Birch, and Grass Pollen in the United States. Geohealth 2019; 3:11-27. [PMID: 31106285 PMCID: PMC6516486 DOI: 10.1029/2018gh000153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2018] [Revised: 10/24/2018] [Accepted: 11/28/2018] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Pollen is an important environmental cause of allergic asthma episodes. Prior work has established a proof of concept for assessing projected climate change impacts on future oak pollen exposure and associated health impacts. This paper uses additional monitor data and epidemiologic functions to extend prior analyses, reporting new estimates of the current and projected future health burden of oak, birch, and grass pollen across the contiguous United States. Our results suggest that tree pollen in the spring currently accounts for between 25,000 and 50,000 pollen-related asthma emergency department (ED) visits annually (95% confidence interval: 14,000 to 100,000), roughly two thirds of which occur among people under age 18. Grass pollen in the summer season currently accounts for less than 10,000 cases annually (95% confidence interval: 4,000 to 16,000). Compared to a baseline with 21st century population growth but constant pollen, future temperature and precipitation show an increase in ED visits of 14% in 2090 for a higher greenhouse gas emissions scenario, but only 8% for a moderate emissions scenario, reflecting projected increases in pollen season length. Grass pollen, which is more sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, is a primary contributor to future ED visits, with the largest effects in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern Great Plains regions. More complete assessment of the current and future health burden of pollen is limited by the availability of data on pollen types (e.g., ragweed), other health effects (e.g., other respiratory disease), and economic consequences (e.g., medication costs).
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Kate R. Weinberger
- Department of EpidemiologyBrown University School of Public HealthProvidenceRIUSA
| | | | | | | | | | - Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle ParkNorth CarolinaUSA
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19
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Fann N, Coffman E, Timin B, Kelly JT. The estimated change in the level and distribution of PM 2.5-attributable health impacts in the United States: 2005-2014. Environ Res 2018; 167:506-514. [PMID: 30142626 PMCID: PMC6716061 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.08.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2018] [Revised: 07/23/2018] [Accepted: 08/11/2018] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Photochemical modeling can predict the level and distribution of pollutant concentrations over time, but is resource-intensive. Partly for this reason, there are few studies exploring the multi-year trajectory of the historical change in fine particle (PM2.5) levels and associated health impacts in the U.S. OBJECTIVES We used a unique dataset of Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations performed for a subset of years over a decade-long period fused with observations to estimate the change in ambient levels of PM2.5 across the contiguous U.S. We also quantified the change in PM2.5-attributable health risks and characterized the level of risk inequality over this period. METHODS We estimated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in 2005, 2011 and 2014. Using log-linear and logistic concentration-response coefficients we estimated changes in the numbers of deaths, hospital admissions and other morbidity outcomes. Calculating the Gini coefficient and Atkinson Index, we characterized the extent to which PM2.5 attributable risks were shared equally across the population or instead concentrated among certain subgroups. RESULTS In 2005 the estimated fraction of deaths due to PM2.5 was 6.1%. This estimated value falls to 4.6% by 2014. Every portion of the contiguous U.S. experiences a decline in the risk of PM-related premature death over the 10-year period. As measured by the Gini coefficient and Atkinson index, the level of PM mortality risk is shared more equally in 2014 than in 2005 among all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS Between 2005 and 2014, the level of PM2.5 concentrations fall, and the risk of premature death, declined and became more equitably distributed across the U.S.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
| | - Evan Coffman
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Brian Timin
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - James T Kelly
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
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Morefield PE, Fann N, Grambsch A, Raich W, Weaver CP. Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2018; 15:E2438. [PMID: 30388822 PMCID: PMC6266381 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15112438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2018] [Revised: 10/25/2018] [Accepted: 10/27/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Recent assessments have found that a warming climate, with associated increases in extreme heat events, could profoundly affect human health. This paper describes a new modeling and analysis framework, built around the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP), for estimating heat-related mortality as a function of changes in key factors that determine the health impacts of extreme heat. This new framework has the flexibility to integrate these factors within health risk assessments, and to sample across the uncertainties in them, to provide a more comprehensive picture of total health risk from climate-driven increases in extreme heat. We illustrate the framework's potential with an updated set of projected heat-related mortality estimates for the United States. These projections combine downscaled Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5, using the new Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online (LASSO) tool to select the most relevant downscaled climate realizations for the study, with new population projections from EPA's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Results suggest that future changes in climate could cause approximately from 3000 to more than 16,000 heat-related deaths nationally on an annual basis. This work demonstrates that uncertainties associated with both future population and future climate strongly influence projected heat-related mortality. This framework can be used to systematically evaluate the sensitivity of projected future heat-related mortality to the key driving factors and major sources of methodological uncertainty inherent in such calculations, improving the scientific foundations of risk-based assessments of climate change and human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip E Morefield
- Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA.
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, NC 27709, USA.
| | - Anne Grambsch
- Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA.
| | - William Raich
- Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02140, USA.
| | - Christopher P Weaver
- Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA.
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Anenberg SC, Henze DK, Tinney V, Kinney PL, Raich W, Fann N, Malley CS, Roman H, Lamsal L, Duncan B, Martin RV, van Donkelaar A, Brauer M, Doherty R, Jonson JE, Davila Y, Sudo K, Kuylenstierna JCI. Estimates of the Global Burden of Ambient [Formula: see text], Ozone, and [Formula: see text] on Asthma Incidence and Emergency Room Visits. Environ Health Perspect 2018; 126:107004. [PMID: 30392403 PMCID: PMC6371661 DOI: 10.1289/ehp3766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 138] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2018] [Revised: 07/26/2018] [Accepted: 09/24/2018] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Asthma is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide, affecting 358 million people in 2015. Ambient air pollution exacerbates asthma among populations around the world and may also contribute to new-onset asthma. OBJECTIVES We aimed to estimate the number of asthma emergency room visits and new onset asthma cases globally attributable to fine particulate matter ([Formula: see text]), ozone, and nitrogen dioxide ([Formula: see text]) concentrations. METHODS We used epidemiological health impact functions combined with data describing population, baseline asthma incidence and prevalence, and pollutant concentrations. We constructed a new dataset of national and regional emergency room visit rates among people with asthma using published survey data. RESULTS We estimated that 9–23 million and 5–10 million annual asthma emergency room visits globally in 2015 could be attributable to ozone and [Formula: see text], respectively, representing 8–20% and 4–9% of the annual number of global visits, respectively. The range reflects the application of central risk estimates from different epidemiological meta-analyses. Anthropogenic emissions were responsible for [Formula: see text] and 73% of ozone and [Formula: see text] impacts, respectively. Remaining impacts were attributable to naturally occurring ozone precursor emissions (e.g., from vegetation, lightning) and [Formula: see text] (e.g., dust, sea salt), though several of these sources are also influenced by humans. The largest impacts were estimated in China and India. CONCLUSIONS These findings estimate the magnitude of the global asthma burden that could be avoided by reducing ambient air pollution. We also identified key uncertainties and data limitations to be addressed to enable refined estimation. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3766.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan C Anenberg
- Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Daven K Henze
- University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Veronica Tinney
- Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - William Raich
- Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Henry Roman
- Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Lok Lamsal
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Bryan Duncan
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Randall V Martin
- Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
- Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | | | - Yanko Davila
- University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Kengo Sudo
- Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
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22
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Burnett R, Chen H, Szyszkowicz M, Fann N, Hubbell B, Pope CA, Apte JS, Brauer M, Cohen A, Weichenthal S, Coggins J, Di Q, Brunekreef B, Frostad J, Lim SS, Kan H, Walker KD, Thurston GD, Hayes RB, Lim CC, Turner MC, Jerrett M, Krewski D, Gapstur SM, Diver WR, Ostro B, Goldberg D, Crouse DL, Martin RV, Peters P, Pinault L, Tjepkema M, van Donkelaar A, Villeneuve PJ, Miller AB, Yin P, Zhou M, Wang L, Janssen NAH, Marra M, Atkinson RW, Tsang H, Quoc Thach T, Cannon JB, Allen RT, Hart JE, Laden F, Cesaroni G, Forastiere F, Weinmayr G, Jaensch A, Nagel G, Concin H, Spadaro JV. Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:9592-9597. [PMID: 30181279 PMCID: PMC6156628 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1803222115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 906] [Impact Index Per Article: 151.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM2.5-mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries-the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5-10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9-8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3-4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM2.5 exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Burnett
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
| | - Hong Chen
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Public Health Ontario, Toronto, ON M5G 1V2, Canada
| | | | - Neal Fann
- Risk and Benefits Group, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460
| | - Bryan Hubbell
- Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460
| | - C Arden Pope
- Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602
| | - Joshua S Apte
- Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada
| | - Aaron Cohen
- Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA 02110-1817
| | - Scott Weichenthal
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0G4, Canada
- Gerald Bronfman Department of Oncology, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0G4, Canada
| | - Jay Coggins
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455
| | - Qian Di
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Bert Brunekreef
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Universiteit Utrecht, 3512 JE Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Joseph Frostad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | | | - George D Thurston
- Environmental Medicine and Population Health, Program in Human Exposures and Health Effects, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016
| | - Richard B Hayes
- Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Medical Center, New York, NY 10016
| | - Chris C Lim
- Department of Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016
| | - Michelle C Turner
- ISGlobal, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, 08036 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Michael Jerrett
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Daniel Krewski
- McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
| | - Susan M Gapstur
- Epidemiology Research Program, American Cancer Society, Inc., Atlanta, GA 30303
| | - W Ryan Diver
- Epidemiology Research Program, American Cancer Society, Inc., Atlanta, GA 30303
| | - Bart Ostro
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
| | - Debbie Goldberg
- Cancer Prevention Institute of California, Fremont, CA 94538
| | - Daniel L Crouse
- Department of Sociology, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Randall V Martin
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Paul Peters
- Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
- Department of Geography and Environment, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
- New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Lauren Pinault
- Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0T6, Canada
| | - Michael Tjepkema
- Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0T6, Canada
| | - Aaron van Donkelaar
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Paul J Villeneuve
- Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Anthony B Miller
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Lijun Wang
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Nicole A H Janssen
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Marten Marra
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Richard W Atkinson
- Population Health Research Institute, St. George's, University of London, London SW17 0RE, United Kingdom
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, St. George's, University of London, London SW17 0RE, United Kingdom
| | - Hilda Tsang
- School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Thuan Quoc Thach
- School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - John B Cannon
- Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602
| | - Ryan T Allen
- Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602
| | - Jaime E Hart
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard C.T. Channing School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Francine Laden
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard C.T. Channing School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Giulia Cesaroni
- Department of Epidemiology, Regional Health Service, ASL Roma 1, 00147 Rome, Italy
| | - Francesco Forastiere
- Department of Epidemiology, Regional Health Service, ASL Roma 1, 00147 Rome, Italy
| | - Gudrun Weinmayr
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany
| | - Andrea Jaensch
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany
| | - Gabriele Nagel
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany
| | - Hans Concin
- Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine, 6900 Bregenz, Austria
| | - Joseph V Spadaro
- Spadaro Environmental Research Consultants (SERC), Philadelphia, PA 19142
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23
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Fann N, Baker KR, Chan EAW, Eyth A, Macpherson A, Miller E, Snyder J. Assessing Human Health PM 2.5 and Ozone Impacts from U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Sector Emissions in 2025. Environ Sci Technol 2018; 52:8095-8103. [PMID: 30004688 PMCID: PMC6718951 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b02050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
Incomplete information regarding emissions from oil and natural gas production has historically made it challenging to characterize the air quality or air pollution-related health impacts for this sector in the United States. Using an emissions inventory for the oil and natural gas sector that reflects information regarding the level and distribution of PM2.5 and ozone precursor emissions, we simulate annual mean PM2.5 and summer season average daily 8 h maximum ozone concentrations with the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). We quantify the incidence and economic value of PM2.5 and ozone health related effects using the environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). We find that ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone, and associated health impacts, are highest in a handful of states including Colorado, Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia. On a per-ton basis, the benefits of reducing PM2.5 precursor emissions from this sector vary by pollutant species, and range from between $6,300 and $320,000, while the value of reducing ozone precursors ranges from $500 to $8,200 in the year 2025 (2015$).
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 109 T.W. Alexander Drive , Research Triangle Park , North Carolina 27711 , United States
| | - Kirk R Baker
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 109 T.W. Alexander Drive , Research Triangle Park , North Carolina 27711 , United States
| | - Elizabeth A W Chan
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 109 T.W. Alexander Drive , Research Triangle Park , North Carolina 27711 , United States
| | - Alison Eyth
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 109 T.W. Alexander Drive , Research Triangle Park , North Carolina 27711 , United States
| | - Alexander Macpherson
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 109 T.W. Alexander Drive , Research Triangle Park , North Carolina 27711 , United States
| | - Elizabeth Miller
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 109 T.W. Alexander Drive , Research Triangle Park , North Carolina 27711 , United States
| | - Jennifer Snyder
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 109 T.W. Alexander Drive , Research Triangle Park , North Carolina 27711 , United States
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24
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Fann N, Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L. Erratum: "Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy and Adult Mortality Resulting from Declining PM 2.5 Exposures in the Contiguous United States: 1980-2010". Environ Health Perspect 2018; 126:029002. [PMID: 29467110 PMCID: PMC6066353 DOI: 10.1289/ehp3422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2018] [Accepted: 01/29/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
[This corrects the article DOI: https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP507.].
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25
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Sacks JD, Lloyd JM, Zhu Y, Anderton J, Jang CJ, Hubbell B, Fann N. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP-CE): A tool to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing air pollution. Environ Model Softw 2018. [PMID: 29962895 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.02.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
A number of software tools exist to estimate the health and economic impacts associated with air quality changes. Over the past 15 years, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and its partners invested substantial time and resources in developing the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP-CE). BenMAP-CE is a publicly available, PC-based open source software program that can be configured to conduct health impact assessments to inform air quality policies anywhere in the world. The developers coded the platform in C# and made the source code available in GitHub, with the goal of building a collaborative relationship with programmers with expertise in other environmental modeling programs. The team recently improved the BenMAP-CE user experience and incorporated new features, while also building a cadre of analysts and BenMAP-CE training instructors in Latin America and Southeast Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason D Sacks
- National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | | | - Yun Zhu
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Pollution Control, College of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, Guangzhou, China
| | | | - Carey J Jang
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Bryan Hubbell
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
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26
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Fann N, Alman B, Broome R, Morgan G, Johnson F, Pouliot G, Rappold AG. The health impacts and economic value of wildland fire episodes in the U.S.: 2008-2012. Sci Total Environ 2018; 610-611:802-809. [PMID: 28826118 PMCID: PMC6117838 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 110] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2017] [Revised: 07/25/2017] [Accepted: 08/02/2017] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Wildland fires degrade air quality and adversely affect human health. A growing body of epidemiology literature reports increased rates of emergency departments, hospital admissions and premature deaths from wildfire smoke exposure. OBJECTIVE Our research aimed to characterize excess mortality and morbidity events, and the economic value of these impacts, from wildland fire smoke exposure in the U.S. over a multi-year period; to date no other burden assessment has done this. METHODS We first completed a systematic review of the epidemiologic literature and then performed photochemical air quality modeling for the years 2008 to 2012 in the continental U.S. Finally, we estimated the morbidity, mortality, and economic burden of wildland fires. RESULTS Our models suggest that areas including northern California, Oregon and Idaho in the West, and Florida, Louisiana and Georgia in the East were most affected by wildland fire events in the form of additional premature deaths and respiratory hospital admissions. We estimated the economic value of these cases due to short term exposures as being between $11 and $20B (2010$) per year, with a net present value of $63B (95% confidence intervals $6-$170); we estimate the value of long-term exposures as being between $76 and $130B (2010$) per year, with a net present value of $450B (95% confidence intervals $42-$1200). CONCLUSION The public health burden of wildland fires-in terms of the number and economic value of deaths and illnesses-is considerable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, Voice: (919) 541-0209, Fax: (919) 541-0839,
| | - Breanna Alman
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, Voice: (919) 541-0209, Fax: (919) 541-0839,
| | - Richard Broome
- Sydney South West Area Health Service, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Geoff Morgan
- University Center for rural Health, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - George Pouliot
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Ana G. Rappold
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
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27
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Fann N, Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L. Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy and Adult Mortality Resulting from Declining PM2.5 Exposures in the Contiguous United States: 1980-2010. Environ Health Perspect 2017; 125:097003. [PMID: 28934094 PMCID: PMC5903877 DOI: 10.1289/ehp507] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2016] [Revised: 06/19/2017] [Accepted: 06/20/2017] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND PM2.5 precursor emissions have declined over the course of several decades, following the implementation of local, state, and federal air quality policies. Estimating the corresponding change in population exposure and PM2.5-attributable risk of death prior to the year 2000 is made difficult by the lack of PM2.5 monitoring data. OBJECTIVES We used a new technique to estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations, and estimated the effects of changes in PM2.5 population exposures on mortality in adults (age ≥30y), and on life expectancy at birth, in the contiguous United States during 1980-2010. METHODS We estimated annual mean county-level PM2.5 concentrations in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using universal kriging incorporating geographic variables. County-level death rates and national life tables for each year were obtained from the U.S. Census and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used log-linear and nonlinear concentration-response coefficients from previous studies to estimate changes in the numbers of deaths and in life years and life expectancy at birth, attributable to changes in PM2.5. RESULTS Between 1980 and 2010, population-weighted PM2.5 exposures fell by about half, and the estimated number of excess deaths declined by about a third. The States of California, Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia had some of the largest estimated reductions in PM2.5-attributable deaths. Relative to a counterfactual population with exposures held constant at 1980 levels, we estimated that people born in 2050 would experience an ∼1-y increase in life expectancy at birth, and that there would be a cumulative gain of 4.4 million life years among adults ≥30y of age. CONCLUSIONS Our estimates suggest that declines in PM2.5 exposures between 1980 and 2010 have benefitted public health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP507.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park , North Carolina, USA
| | - Sun-Young Kim
- Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University , Seoul, Korea
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington , Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Casey Olives
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington , Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Lianne Sheppard
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington , Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington , Seattle, Washington, USA
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28
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Anenberg SC, Weinberger KR, Roman H, Neumann JE, Crimmins A, Fann N, Martinich J, Kinney PL. Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change. Geohealth 2017; 1:80-92. [PMID: 32158983 PMCID: PMC7007169 DOI: 10.1002/2017gh000055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2017] [Revised: 03/23/2017] [Accepted: 03/24/2017] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration-response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000-35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at $10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen-related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen-related health impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan C. Anenberg
- Environmental Health Analytics, LLCWashingtonDistrict of ColumbiaUSA
| | - Kate R. Weinberger
- Institute at Brown for Environment & SocietyBrown UniversityProvidenceRhode IslandUSA
| | - Henry Roman
- Industrial Economics, Inc.CambridgeMassachusettsUSA
| | | | - Allison Crimmins
- Office of Air and RadiationU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWashingtonDistrict of ColumbiaUSA
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air and RadiationU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWashingtonDistrict of ColumbiaUSA
| | - Jeremy Martinich
- Office of Air and RadiationU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWashingtonDistrict of ColumbiaUSA
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29
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Anenberg SC, Belova A, Brandt J, Fann N, Greco S, Guttikunda S, Heroux ME, Hurley F, Krzyzanowski M, Medina S, Miller B, Pandey K, Roos J, Van Dingenen R. Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools. Risk Anal 2016; 36:1718-36. [PMID: 26742852 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Designing air quality policies that improve public health can benefit from information about air pollution health risks and impacts, which include respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and premature death. Several computer-based tools help automate air pollution health impact assessments and are being used for a variety of contexts. Expanding information gathered for a May 2014 World Health Organization expert meeting, we survey 12 multinational air pollution health impact assessment tools, categorize them according to key technical and operational characteristics, and identify limitations and challenges. Key characteristics include spatial resolution, pollutants and health effect outcomes evaluated, and method for characterizing population exposure, as well as tool format, accessibility, complexity, and degree of peer review and application in policy contexts. While many of the tools use common data sources for concentration-response associations, population, and baseline mortality rates, they vary in the exposure information source, format, and degree of technical complexity. We find that there is an important tradeoff between technical refinement and accessibility for a broad range of applications. Analysts should apply tools that provide the appropriate geographic scope, resolution, and maximum degree of technical rigor for the intended assessment, within resources constraints. A systematic intercomparison of the tools' inputs, assumptions, calculations, and results would be helpful to determine the appropriateness of each for different types of assessment. Future work would benefit from accounting for multiple uncertainty sources and integrating ambient air pollution health impact assessment tools with those addressing other related health risks (e.g., smoking, indoor pollution, climate change, vehicle accidents, physical activity).
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Jørgen Brandt
- Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Sue Greco
- Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Sarath Guttikunda
- Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA
| | - Marie-Eve Heroux
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
| | | | | | - Sylvia Medina
- French Institute for Public Health Surveillance, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Brian Miller
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Joachim Roos
- Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Use of Energy, University Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Rita Van Dingenen
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, VA, Italy
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Fann N, Gilmore EA, Walker K. Characterizing the Long-Term PM2.5 Concentration-Response Function: Comparing the Strengths and Weaknesses of Research Synthesis Approaches. Risk Anal 2016; 36:1693-707. [PMID: 26269141 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
The magnitude, shape, and degree of certainty in the association between long-term population exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) and the risk of premature death is one of the most intensely studied issues in environmental health. For regulatory risk analysis, this relationship is described quantitatively by a concentration-response (C-R) function that relates exposure to ambient concentrations with the risk of premature mortality. Four data synthesis techniques develop the basis for, and derive, this function: systematic review, expert judgment elicitation, quantitative meta-analysis, and integrated exposure-response (IER) assessment. As part of an academic workshop aiming to guide the use of research synthesis approaches, we developed criteria with which to evaluate and select among the approaches for their ability to inform policy choices. These criteria include the quality and extent of scientific support for the method, its transparency and verifiability, its suitability to the policy problem, and the time and resources required for its application. We find that these research methods are both complementary and interdependent. A systematic review of the multidisciplinary evidence is a starting point for all methods, providing the broad conceptual basis for the nature, plausibility, and strength of the associations between PM exposure and adverse health effects. Further, for a data-rich application like PM2.5 and premature mortality, all three quantitative approaches can produce estimates that are suitable for regulatory and benefit analysis. However, when fewer data are available, more resource-intensive approaches such as expert elicitation may be more important for understanding what scientists know, where they agree or disagree, and what they believe to be the most important areas of uncertainty. Whether implicitly or explicitly, all require considerable judgment by scientists. Finding ways for all these methods to acknowledge, appropriately elicit, and examine the implications of that judgment would be an important step forward for research synthesis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27711, USA.
| | - Elisabeth A Gilmore
- School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA
| | - Katherine Walker
- Health Effects Institute, 101 Federal Street, Suite 500, Boston, MA, 02110
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Nasari MM, Szyszkowicz M, Chen H, Crouse D, Turner MC, Jerrett M, Pope CA, Hubbell B, Fann N, Cohen A, Gapstur SM, Diver WR, Stieb D, Forouzanfar MH, Kim SY, Olives C, Krewski D, Burnett RT. A class of non-linear exposure-response models suitable for health impact assessment applicable to large cohort studies of ambient air pollution. Air Qual Atmos Health 2016; 9:961-972. [PMID: 27867428 PMCID: PMC5093184 DOI: 10.1007/s11869-016-0398-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2015] [Accepted: 02/14/2016] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
The effectiveness of regulatory actions designed to improve air quality is often assessed by predicting changes in public health resulting from their implementation. Risk of premature mortality from long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is the single most important contributor to such assessments and is estimated from observational studies generally assuming a log-linear, no-threshold association between ambient concentrations and death. There has been only limited assessment of this assumption in part because of a lack of methods to estimate the shape of the exposure-response function in very large study populations. In this paper, we propose a new class of variable coefficient risk functions capable of capturing a variety of potentially non-linear associations which are suitable for health impact assessment. We construct the class by defining transformations of concentration as the product of either a linear or log-linear function of concentration multiplied by a logistic weighting function. These risk functions can be estimated using hazard regression survival models with currently available computer software and can accommodate large population-based cohorts which are increasingly being used for this purpose. We illustrate our modeling approach with two large cohort studies of long-term concentrations of ambient air pollution and mortality: the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) cohort and the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). We then estimate the number of deaths attributable to changes in fine particulate matter concentrations over the 2000 to 2010 time period in both Canada and the USA using both linear and non-linear hazard function models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masoud M. Nasari
- Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, 200 Eglantine Driveway, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9 Canada
| | - Mieczysław Szyszkowicz
- Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, 200 Eglantine Driveway, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9 Canada
| | - Hong Chen
- Public Health Ontario, Oakville, Ontario Canada
| | - Daniel Crouse
- Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, 200 Eglantine Driveway, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9 Canada
| | - Michelle C. Turner
- McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario Canada
- Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Madrid, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Michael Jerrett
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - C. Arden Pope
- Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT USA
| | - Bryan Hubbell
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, Durham, NC USA
| | - Neal Fann
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, Durham, NC USA
| | | | - Susan M. Gapstur
- Epidemiology Research Program, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA USA
| | - W. Ryan Diver
- Epidemiology Research Program, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA USA
| | - David Stieb
- Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, 200 Eglantine Driveway, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9 Canada
| | | | - Sun-Young Kim
- Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Casey Olives
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Daniel Krewski
- McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario Canada
| | - Richard T. Burnett
- Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, 200 Eglantine Driveway, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9 Canada
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Broome RA, Fann N, Cristina TJN, Fulcher C, Duc H, Morgan GG. The health benefits of reducing air pollution in Sydney, Australia. Environ Res 2015; 143:19-25. [PMID: 26414085 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2015.09.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2015] [Revised: 08/11/2015] [Accepted: 09/07/2015] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Among industrialised countries, fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone levels in the Sydney metropolitan area of Australia are relatively low. Annual mean PM2.5 levels have historically remained below 8 μg/m(3) while warm season (November-March) ozone levels occasionally exceed the Australian guideline value of 0.10 ppm (daily 1 h max). Yet, these levels are still below those seen in the United States and Europe. This analysis focuses on two related questions: (1) what is the public health burden associated with air pollution in Sydney; and (2) to what extent would reducing air pollution reduce the number of hospital admissions, premature deaths and number of years of life lost (YLL)? We addressed these questions by applying a damage function approach to Sydney population, health, PM2.5 and ozone data for 2007 within the BenMAP-CE software tool to estimate health impacts and economic benefits. We found that 430 premature deaths (90% CI: 310-540) and 5800 YLL (95% CI: 3900-7600) are attributable to 2007 levels of PM2.5 (about 2% of total deaths and 1.8% of YLL in 2007). We also estimate about 630 (95% CI: 410-840) respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions attributable to 2007 PM2.5 and ozone exposures. Reducing air pollution levels by even a small amount will yield a range of health benefits. Reducing 2007 PM2.5 exposure in Sydney by 10% would, over 10 years, result in about 650 (95% CI: 430-850) fewer premature deaths, a gain of 3500 (95% CI: 2300-4600) life-years and about 700 (95% CI: 450-930) fewer respiratory and cardiovascular hospital visits. These results suggest that substantial health benefits are attainable in Sydney with even modest reductions in air pollution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard A Broome
- Public Health Observatory, Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, Australia.
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | | | - Charles Fulcher
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Hiep Duc
- NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, Sydney, Australia
| | - Geoffrey G Morgan
- University Centre for Rural Health - North Coast, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; North Coast Public Health Unit, Mid North Coast Local Health District, NSW, Australia
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Fann N, Nolte CG, Dolwick P, Spero TL, Brown AC, Phillips S, Anenberg S. The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030. J Air Waste Manag Assoc 2015; 65:570-80. [PMID: 25947315 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2014.996270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1-4°C and 1-5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$). IMPLICATIONS Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1-5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards , Research Triangle Park , NC , USA
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Viana M, Fann N, Tobías A, Querol X, Rojas-Rueda D, Plaza A, Aynos G, Conde JA, Fernández L, Fernández C. Environmental and health benefits from designating the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits as an emission control area (ECA). Environ Sci Technol 2015; 49:3304-3313. [PMID: 25700153 DOI: 10.1021/es5049946] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Ship emissions degrade air quality and affect human health, and are increasingly becoming a matter of concern. Sulfur emission control areas (ECA), specific coastal regions where only low-sulfur fuels may be consumed by ocean-going ships, have proven to be useful tools to reduce ship-sourced air pollution along the North American, Canadian, and European North and Baltic Sea coastlines. The present work assesses the environmental and health benefits which would derive from designating an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits (50 000 ships/year; 23 million inhabitants). Results show evidence that implementing an ECA would be technically viable and that it would reduce ship-sourced PM10 and PM2.5 ambient concentrations in Istanbul by 67%, and SO2 by 90%. The reduction of the air pollution burden on health was quantified as 210 hospital admissions from exposure to PM10, 290 hospital admissions from exposure to SO2, and up to 30 premature deaths annually due to ECA emission controls. Consequently, the designation of an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits is evaluated as a positive, technically viable and real-world measure to reduce air pollution from ships in Turkey.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Viana
- †Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDÆA-CSIC), 08034 Barcelona, Spain
| | - N Fann
- ‡Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, United States
| | - A Tobías
- †Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDÆA-CSIC), 08034 Barcelona, Spain
| | - X Querol
- †Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDÆA-CSIC), 08034 Barcelona, Spain
| | - D Rojas-Rueda
- §Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), E-08003 Barcelona, Spain
| | - A Plaza
- ∥School of Physics, 28049 Madrid, Spain
| | - G Aynos
- ⊥General Directorate for Safety, Pollution and Maritime Inspection, 28071 Madrid, Spain
| | - J A Conde
- #General Directorate for Maritime Affaires, 38180 Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain
| | - L Fernández
- #General Directorate for Maritime Affaires, 38180 Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain
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Jhun I, Fann N, Zanobetti A, Hubbell B. Effect modification of ozone-related mortality risks by temperature in 97 US cities. Environ Int 2014; 73:128-34. [PMID: 25113626 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2014.07.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2014] [Accepted: 07/01/2014] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Many time-series studies have characterized the relationship between short-term ozone exposure and adverse health outcomes, controlling for temperature as a confounder. Temperature may also modify ozone effects, though this has been largely under-investigated. In this study, we explored whether temperature modifies the effect of short-term ozone exposure on mortality. We used the database developed for the National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study to estimate ozone mortality risks in 97 US cities in May through September, 1987-2000. We treated temperature as a confounder as well as an effect modifier by estimating risks at low, moderate, and high temperature categories. When temperature was treated as a confounder, a 10-ppb increase in daily 24-h ozone was associated with a 0.47% (95% CI: 0.19%-0.76%) increase in mortality. When we assessed effect modification by temperature, the interaction between ozone and temperature was not statistically significant. However, there was a U-shaped pattern in mortality risk, which was greater at the low (<25th percentile) and high (>75th percentile) temperature levels than moderate temperature levels. At the high temperature category, a 10% increase in AC prevalence mitigated mortality risk associated with 10-ppb of ozone exposure by -0.18% (95% CI: -0.35%, -0.02%). Furthermore, ozone mortality risk in the high temperature category increased as we restricted our analyses to hotter days. On days where temperatures exceeded the 75th, 90th, and 95th percentile temperatures, a 10-ppb increase in ozone was associated with a 0.65% (95% CI: 0.20%-1.09%), 0.83% (95% CI: 0.17%-1.48%), and 1.35% (95% CI: 0.44%-2.27%) increase in mortality, respectively. These results suggested that high temperatures may exacerbate physiological responses to short-term ozone exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iny Jhun
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States.
| | - Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Bryan Hubbell
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
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Shin HH, Fann N, Burnett RT, Cohen A, Hubbell BJ. Outdoor fine particles and nonfatal strokes: systematic review and meta-analysis. Epidemiology 2014; 25:835-42. [PMID: 25188557 PMCID: PMC4222795 DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000000162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2013] [Accepted: 05/02/2014] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Epidemiologic studies find that long- and short-term exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, including ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. However, few systematic reviews or meta-analyses have synthesized these results. METHODS We reviewed epidemiologic studies that estimated the risks of nonfatal strokes attributable to ambient PM2.5. To pool risks among studies we used a random-effects model and 2 Bayesian approaches. The first Bayesian approach assumes a normal prior that allows risks to be zero, positive or negative. The second assumes a gamma prior, where risks can only be positive. This second approach is proposed when the number of studies pooled is small, and there is toxicological or clinical literature to support a causal relation. RESULTS We identified 20 studies suitable for quantitative meta-analysis. Evidence for publication bias is limited. The frequentist meta-analysis produced pooled risk ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.13) and 1.007 (1.003-1.010) for long- and short-term effects, respectively. The Bayesian meta-analysis found a posterior mean risk ratio of 1.08 (95% posterior interval = 0.96-1.26) and 1.008 (1.003-1.013) from a normal prior, and of 1.05 (1.02-1.10) and 1.008 (1.004-1.013) from a gamma prior, for long- and short-term effects, respectively, per 10 μg/m PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS Sufficient evidence exists to develop a concentration-response relation for short- and long-term exposures to PM2.5 and stroke incidence. Long-term exposures to PM2.5 result in a higher risk ratio than short-term exposures, regardless of the pooling method. The evidence for short-term PM2.5-related ischemic stroke is especially strong.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hwashin H. Shin
- From the Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada; Health and Environmental Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NC; and Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Neal Fann
- From the Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada; Health and Environmental Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NC; and Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Richard T. Burnett
- From the Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada; Health and Environmental Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NC; and Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Aaron Cohen
- From the Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada; Health and Environmental Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NC; and Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Bryan J. Hubbell
- From the Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada; Health and Environmental Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NC; and Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA
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Fann N, Lamson AD, Anenberg SC, Hubbell BJ. Letter in response to Fraas & Lutter article: "Uncertain benefits estimates for reductions in fine particle concentrations". Risk Anal 2013; 33:755-756. [PMID: 23278667 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12000] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
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Abstract
Recent risk assessments have characterized the overall burden of recent PM2.5 and ozone levels on public health, but generally not the variability of these impacts over time or by sector. Using photochemical source apportionment modeling and a health impact function, we attribute PM2.5 and ozone air quality levels, population exposure and health burden to 23 industrial point, area, mobile and international emission sectors in the Continental U.S. in 2005 and 2016. Our modeled policy scenarios account for a suite of emission control requirements affecting many of these sectors. Between these two years, the number of PM2.5 and ozone-related deaths attributable to power plants and mobile sources falls from about 68,000 (90% confidence interval from 48,000 to 87,000) to about 36,000 (90% confidence intervals from 26,000 to 47,000). Area source mortality risk grows slightly between 2005 and 2016, due largely to population growth. Uncertainties relating to the timing and magnitude of the emission reductions may affect the size of these estimates. The detailed sector-level estimates of the size and distribution of mortality and morbidity risk suggest that the air pollution mortality burden has fallen over time but that many sectors continue to pose a substantial risk to human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, United States.
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Fann N, Baker KR, Fulcher CM. Characterizing the PM₂.₅-related health benefits of emission reductions for 17 industrial, area and mobile emission sectors across the U.S. Environ Int 2012; 49:141-51. [PMID: 23022875 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2012.08.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2012] [Revised: 07/18/2012] [Accepted: 08/30/2012] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Air pollution benefits assessments tend to be time and resource intensive. Reduced-form approaches offer computational efficiency, but may introduce uncertainty. Some reduced-form approaches apply simplified air quality models, which may not capture the complex non-linear chemistry governing the formation of certain pollutants such as PM₂.₅. Other approaches apply the results of sophisticated photochemical modeling, but characterize only a small number of source types in a limited geographic area. METHODS We apply CAMx source apportionment photochemical modeling, coupled with a PC-based human health benefits software program, to develop a suite of PM₂.₅ benefit per ton estimates. These per-ton estimates relate emission changes to health impacts and monetized benefits for 17 sectors across the continental U.S., including Electricity Generating Units (EGU), mobile, area and industrial point sources. RESULTS The benefit per ton of reducing directly emitted PM₂.₅ is about an order of magnitude larger than reducing emissions of PM₂.₅ precursor emissions. On a per-ton basis, the value of reducing directly emitted PM₂.₅ and PM₂.₅ precursors in 2005 ranges between approximately $1300 (2010$) for reducing a ton of NO(x) from Ocean-Going Vessels to about $450,000 (2010$) for reducing a ton of directly emitted PM₂.₅ from Iron and Steel facilities. The benefit per ton estimates for 2016 are generally higher than the 2005 estimates. The values estimated here are generally comparable with those generated using photochemical modeling, but larger than those calculated using simplified air quality models. CONCLUSIONS Our approach characterizes well the per-ton benefits of reducing emissions from a broad array of 17 industrial point, EGU and mobile sectors, while our use of photochemical air quality modeling gives us greater confidence that we have accounted for the non-linear chemistry governing PM₂.₅ formation. The resulting benefit per-ton estimates thus represent a compromise between approaches that may simplify the treatment of PM₂.₅ air quality formation and those techniques that are based in photochemical modeling but account for only a small number of emission sources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.
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40
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Berman JD, Fann N, Hollingsworth JW, Pinkerton KE, Rom WN, Szema AM, Breysse PN, White RH, Curriero FC. Health benefits from large-scale ozone reduction in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 2012; 120:1404-10. [PMID: 22809899 PMCID: PMC3491929 DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1104851] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2011] [Accepted: 06/29/2012] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Exposure to ozone has been associated with adverse health effects, including premature mortality and cardiopulmonary and respiratory morbidity. In 2008, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) lowered the primary (health-based) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone to 75 ppb, expressed as the fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hr average over a 24-hr period. Based on recent monitoring data, U.S. ozone levels still exceed this standard in numerous locations, resulting in avoidable adverse health consequences. OBJECTIVES We sought to quantify the potential human health benefits from achieving the current primary NAAQS standard of 75 ppb and two alternative standard levels, 70 and 60 ppb, which represent the range recommended by the U.S. EPA Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC). METHODS We applied health impact assessment methodology to estimate numbers of deaths and other adverse health outcomes that would have been avoided during 2005, 2006, and 2007 if the current (or lower) NAAQS ozone standards had been met. Estimated reductions in ozone concentrations were interpolated according to geographic area and year, and concentration-response functions were obtained or derived from the epidemiological literature. RESULTS We estimated that annual numbers of avoided ozone-related premature deaths would have ranged from 1,410 to 2,480 at 75 ppb to 2,450 to 4,130 at 70 ppb, and 5,210 to 7,990 at 60 ppb. Acute respiratory symptoms would have been reduced by 3 million cases and school-loss days by 1 million cases annually if the current 75-ppb standard had been attained. Substantially greater health benefits would have resulted if the CASAC-recommended range of standards (70-60 ppb) had been met. CONCLUSIONS Attaining a more stringent primary ozone standard would significantly reduce ozone-related premature mortality and morbidity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse D Berman
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
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Fann N, Lamson AD, Anenberg SC, Wesson K, Risley D, Hubbell BJ. Estimating the national public health burden associated with exposure to ambient PM2.5 and ozone. Risk Anal 2012; 32:81-95. [PMID: 21627672 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01630.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 270] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Ground-level ozone (O(3)) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) are associated with increased risk of mortality. We quantify the burden of modeled 2005 concentrations of O(3) and PM(2.5) on health in the United States. We use the photochemical Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in conjunction with ambient monitored data to create fused surfaces of summer season average 8-hour ozone and annual mean PM(2.5) levels at a 12 km grid resolution across the continental United States. Employing spatially resolved demographic and concentration data, we assess the spatial and age distribution of air-pollution-related mortality and morbidity. For both PM(2.5) and O(3) we also estimate: the percentage of total deaths due to each pollutant; the reduction in life years and life expectancy; and the deaths avoided according to hypothetical air quality improvements. Using PM(2.5) and O(3) mortality risk coefficients drawn from the long-term American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study and National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), respectively, we estimate 130,000 PM(2.5) -related deaths and 4,700 ozone-related deaths to result from 2005 air quality levels. Among populations aged 65-99, we estimate nearly 1.1 million life years lost from PM(2.5) exposure and approximately 36,000 life years lost from ozone exposure. Among the 10 most populous counties, the percentage of deaths attributable to PM(2.5) and ozone ranges from 3.5% in San Jose to 10% in Los Angeles. These results show that despite significant improvements in air quality in recent decades, recent levels of PM(2.5) and ozone still pose a nontrivial risk to public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
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Fann N, Bell ML, Walker K, Hubbell B. Improving the linkages between air pollution epidemiology and quantitative risk assessment. Environ Health Perspect 2011; 119:1671-5. [PMID: 21816702 PMCID: PMC3261990 DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1103780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2011] [Accepted: 08/04/2011] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Air pollution epidemiology plays an integral role in both identifying the hazards of air pollution as well as supplying the risk coefficients that are used in quantitative risk assessments. Evidence from both epidemiology and risk assessments has historically supported critical environmental policy decisions. The extent to which risk assessors can properly specify a quantitative risk assessment and characterize key sources of uncertainty depends in part on the availability, and clarity, of data and assumptions in the epidemiological studies. OBJECTIVES We discuss the interests shared by air pollution epidemiology and risk assessment communities in ensuring that the findings of epidemiological studies are appropriately characterized and applied correctly in risk assessments. We highlight the key input parameters for risk assessments and consider how modest changes in the characterization of these data might enable more accurate risk assessments that better represent the findings of epidemiological studies. DISCUSSION We argue that more complete information regarding the methodological choices and input data used in epidemiological studies would support more accurate risk assessments-to the benefit of both disciplines. In particular, we suggest including additional details regarding air quality, demographic, and health data, as well as certain types of data-rich graphics. CONCLUSIONS Relatively modest changes to the data reported in epidemiological studies will improve the quality of risk assessments and help prevent the misinterpretation and mischaracterization of the results of epidemiological studies. Such changes may also benefit epidemiologists undertaking meta-analyses. We suggest workshops as a way to improve the dialogue between the two communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, USA.
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Fann N, Roman HA, Fulcher CM, Gentile MA, Hubbell BJ, Wesson K, Levy JI. Maximizing health benefits and minimizing inequality: incorporating local-scale data in the design and evaluation of air quality policies. Risk Anal 2011; 31:908-22. [PMID: 21615761 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01629.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency undertook a case study in the Detroit metropolitan area to test the viability of a new multipollutant risk-based (MP/RB) approach to air quality management, informed by spatially resolved air quality, population, and baseline health data. The case study demonstrated that the MP/RB approach approximately doubled the human health benefits achieved by the traditional approach while increasing cost less than 20%--moving closer to the objective of Executive Order 12866 to maximize net benefits. Less well understood is how the distribution of health benefits from the MP/RB and traditional strategies affect the existing inequalities in air-pollution-related risks in Detroit. In this article, we identify Detroit populations that may be both most susceptible to air pollution health impacts (based on local-scale baseline health data) and most vulnerable to air pollution (based on fine-scale PM(2.5) air quality modeling and socioeconomic characteristics). Using these susceptible/vulnerable subpopulation profiles, we assess the relative impacts of each control strategy on risk inequality, applying the Atkinson Index (AI) to quantify health risk inequality at baseline and with either risk management approach. We find that the MP/RB approach delivers greater air quality improvements among these subpopulations while also generating substantial benefits among lower-risk populations. Applying the AI, we confirm that the MP/RB strategy yields less PM(2.5) mortality and asthma hospitalization risk inequality than the traditional approach. We demonstrate the value of this approach to policymakers as they develop cost-effective air quality management plans that maximize risk reduction while minimizing health inequality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
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Voorhees AS, Fann N, Fulcher C, Dolwick P, Hubbell B, Bierwagen B, Morefield P. Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: a proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP. Environ Sci Technol 2011; 45:1450-7. [PMID: 21247099 DOI: 10.1021/es102820y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and is likely to increase heat-related human health morbidity and mortality risks. The objective of this work was to develop a proof-of-concept approach for estimating excess heat-related premature deaths in the continental United States resulting from potential changes in future temperature using the BenMAP model. In this approach we adapt the methods and tools that the US Environmental Protection Agency uses to assess air pollution health impacts by incorporating temperature modeling and heat mortality health impact functions. This new method demonstrates the ability to apply the existing temperature-health literature to quantify prospective changes in climate-sensitive heat-related mortality. We compared estimates of future temperature with and without climate change and applied heat-mortality health functions to estimate relative changes in heat-related premature mortality. Using the A1B emissions scenario, we applied the GISS-II global circulation model downscaled to 36-km using MM5 and formatted using the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor. For averaged temperatures derived from the 5 years 2048-2052 relative to 1999-2003 we estimated for the warm season May-September a national U.S. estimate of annual incidence of heat-related mortality to be 3700-3800 from all causes, 3500 from cardiovascular disease, and 21 000-27 000 from nonaccidental death, applying various health impact functions. Our estimates of mortality, produced to validate the application of a new methodology, suggest the importance of quantifying heat impacts in economic assessments of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Scott Voorhees
- United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.
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Gwinn MR, Craig J, Axelrad DA, Cook R, Dockins C, Fann N, Fegley R, Guinnup DE, Helfand G, Hubbell B, Mazur SL, Palma T, Smith RL, Vandenberg J, Sonawane B. Meeting report: Estimating the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants--summary of 2009 workshop and future considerations. Environ Health Perspect 2011; 119:125-130. [PMID: 20920952 PMCID: PMC3018491 DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1002468] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2010] [Accepted: 10/04/2010] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Quantifying the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, or air toxics) has been limited by gaps in toxicological data, uncertainties in extrapolating results from high-dose animal experiments to estimate human effects at lower doses, limited ambient and personal exposure monitoring data, and insufficient economic research to support valuation of the health impacts often associated with exposure to individual air toxics. OBJECTIVES To address some of these issues, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency held the Workshop on Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) in Washington, DC, from 30 April to 1 May 2009. DISCUSSION Experts from multiple disciplines discussed how best to move forward on air toxics benefits assessment, with a focus on developing near-term capability to conduct quantitative benefits assessment. Proposed methodologies involved analysis of data-rich pollutants and application of this analysis to other pollutants, using dose-response modeling of animal data for estimating benefits to humans, determining dose-equivalence relationships for different chemicals with similar health effects, and analysis similar to that used for criteria pollutants. Limitations and uncertainties in economic valuation of benefits assessment for HAPS were discussed as well. CONCLUSIONS These discussions highlighted the complexities in estimating the benefits of reducing air toxics, and participants agreed that alternative methods for benefits assessment of HAPs are needed. Recommendations included clearly defining the key priorities of the Clean Air Act air toxics program to identify the most effective approaches for HAPs benefits analysis, focusing on susceptible and vulnerable populations, and improving dose-response estimation for quantification of benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maureen R Gwinn
- National Center of Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA.
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Fann N, Fulcher CM, Hubbell BJ. The influence of location, source, and emission type in estimates of the human health benefits of reducing a ton of air pollution. Air Qual Atmos Health 2009; 2:169-176. [PMID: 19890404 PMCID: PMC2770129 DOI: 10.1007/s11869-009-0044-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2008] [Accepted: 05/11/2009] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
The benefit per ton ($/ton) of reducing PM(2.5) varies by the location of the emission reduction, the type of source emitting the precursor, and the specific precursor controlled. This paper examines how each of these factors influences the magnitude of the $/ton estimate. We employ a reduced-form air quality model to predict changes in ambient PM(2.5) resulting from an array of emission control scenarios affecting 12 different combinations of sources emitting carbonaceous particles, NO(x), SO(x), NH(3), and volatile organic compounds. We perform this modeling for each of nine urban areas and one nationwide area. Upon modeling the air quality change, we then divide the total monetized health benefits by the PM(2.5) precursor emission reductions to generate $/ton metrics. The resulting $/ton estimates exhibit the greatest variability across certain precursors and sources such as area source SO(x), point source SO(x), and mobile source NH(3). Certain $/ton estimates, including mobile source NO(x), exhibit significant variability across urban areas. Reductions in carbonaceous particles generate the largest $/ton across all locations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal Fann
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 USA
| | - Charles M. Fulcher
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 USA
| | - Bryan J. Hubbell
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 USA
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