Quantifying the probability of detection of wild ungulates with the Judas technique

The Judas technique is often used in control or eradication of particular vertebrate pests. The technique exploits the tendency of individuals to form social groups. A radio collar is affixed to an individual and its subsequent monitoring facilitates the detection of other conspecifics. Efficacy of this technique would be improved if managers could estimate the probability that a Judas individual would detect conspecifics. To calculate this probability, we estimated association rates of Judas individuals with other Judas individuals, given the length of time the Judas has been deployed. We developed a simple model of space-use for individual Judas animals and constrained detection probabilities to those specific areas. We then combined estimates for individual Judas animals to infer the probability that a wild individual could be detected in an area of interest via Judas surveillance. We illustrated the method by using data from a feral goat eradication program on Isla Santiago, Galápagos, and a feral pig eradication program on Santa Cruz Island, California. Association probabilities declined as the proximity between individual areas of use of a Judas pair decreased. Unconditional probabilities of detection within individual areas of use averaged 0.09 per month for feral pigs and 0.11 per month for feral goats. Probabilities that eradication had been achieved, given no detections of wild conspecifics, and an uninformative prior probability of eradication were 0.79 (90% CI 0.22-0.99) for feral goats and 0.87 (90% CI 0.44-1.0) for feral pigs. We envisage several additions to the analyses used that could improve estimates of Judas detection probability. Analyses such as these can help managers increase the efficacy of eradication efforts, leading to more effective effects to restore native biodiversity.

Habitat-linked genetic variation supports microgeographic adaptive divergence in an island-endemic bird species

We investigated the potential mechanisms driving habitat-linked genetic divergence within a bird species endemic to a single 250 km² island. The island scrub-jay (Aphelocoma insularis) exhibits microgeographic divergence in bill morphology across pine-oak ecotones on Santa Cruz Island, California (USA) similar to adaptive differences described in mainland congeners over much larger geographic scales. To test whether individuals exhibit genetic differentiation related to habitat type and divergence in bill length, we genotyped over 3,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 123 adult island scrub-jay males from across Santa Cruz Island using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq). Neutral landscape genomic analyses revealed that genome-wide genetic differentiation was primarily related to geographic distance and differences in habitat composition. We also found 168 putatively adaptive loci associated with habitat type using multivariate redundancy analysis (RDA) while controlling for spatial effects. Finally, two genome-wide association analyses revealed a polygenic basis to variation in bill length with multiple loci detected in or near genes known to affect bill morphology in other birds. Our findings support the hypothesis that divergent selection at microgeographic scales can cause adaptive divergence in the presence of ongoing gene flow.

Adaptive divergence in bill morphology and other thermoregulatory traits is facilitated by restricted gene flow in song sparrows on the California Channel Islands

Disentangling the effects of neutral and adaptive processes in maintaining phenotypic variation across environmental gradients is challenging in natural populations. Song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) on the California Channel Islands occupy a pronounced east-west climate gradient within a small spatial scale, providing a unique opportunity to examine the interaction of genetic isolation (reduced gene flow) and the environment (selection) in driving variation. We used reduced representation genomic libraries to infer the role of neutral processes (drift and restricted gene flow) and divergent selection in driving variation in thermoregulatory traits with an emphasis on the mechanisms that maintain bill divergence among islands. Analyses of 22,029 neutral SNPs confirm distinct population structure by island with restricted gene flow and relatively large effective population sizes, suggesting bill differences are probably not a product of genetic drift. Instead, we found strong support for local adaptation using 3294 SNPs in differentiation-based and environmental association analyses coupled with genome-wide association tests. Specifically, we identified several putatively adaptive and candidate loci in or near genes involved in bill development pathways (e.g., BMP, CaM, Wnt), confirming the highly complex and polygenic architecture underlying bill morphology. Furthermore, we found divergence in genes associated with other thermoregulatory traits (i.e., feather structure, plumage colour, and physiology). Collectively, these results suggest strong divergent selection across an island archipelago results in genomic changes in a suite of traits associated with climate adaptation over small spatial scales. Future research should move beyond studying univariate traits to better understand multidimensional responses to complex environmental conditions.

Prioritizing actions: spatial action maps for conservation

Spatial prioritization is a critical step in conservation planning, a process designed to ensure that limited resources are applied in ways that deliver the highest possible returns for biodiversity and human wellbeing. In practice, many spatial prioritizations fall short of their potential by focusing on places rather than actions, and by using data of snapshots of assets or threats rather than estimated impacts. We introduce spatial action mapping as an approach that overcomes these shortfalls. This approach produces a spatially explicit view of where and how much a given conservation action is likely to contribute to achieving stated conservation goals. Through seven case examples, we demonstrate simple to complex versions of how this method can be applied across local to global scales to inform decisions about a wide range of conservation actions and benefits. Spatial action mapping can support major improvements in efficient use of conservation resources and will reach its full potential as the quality of environmental, social, and economic datasets converge and conservation impact evaluations improve.

Managing Groundwater to Ensure Ecosystem Function

Groundwater is a critical resource not only for human communities but also for many terrestrial, riparian, and aquatic ecosystems and species. Yet groundwater planning and management decisions frequently ignore or inadequately address the needs of these natural systems. As a consequence, ecosystems dependent on groundwater have been threatened, degraded, or eliminated, especially in arid regions. There is growing acknowledgment that governmental protections for these ecological resources are necessary, but current legal, regulatory and voluntary provisions are often inadequate. Groundwater management premised on "safe yield," which aims to balance human withdrawals with natural recharge rates, typically provides little to no consideration for water needed by ecosystems. Alternatively, the "sustainable yield" concept aims to integrate social, economic and environmental needs for groundwater, but the complexity of groundwater systems creates substantial uncertainty about the impact that current or future groundwater withdrawals will have on ecosystems. Regardless of the legal or regulatory framework, guidance is needed to help ensure environmental water needs will be met, especially in the face of pressure to increase human uses of groundwater resources. In this paper, we describe minimum provisions for planning, managing, and monitoring groundwater that collectively can lower the risk of harm to groundwater-dependent ecosystems and species, with a special emphasis on arid systems, where ecosystems and species may be especially reliant upon and sensitive to groundwater dynamics.

How and why are educators using Instagram?

Social media are commonplace in many educators' lives, but their Instagram activities have received no prior attention in the empirical literature. We therefore created and disseminated a survey regarding educators' Instagram use. Analyses of 841 responses suggested participants were generally intensive users of Instagram who engaged in the exchange of both professional knowledge and wisdom, as well as affective support. In addition to identifying benefits to Instagram use, some participants offered critiques of Instagram's professional utility. We discuss the implications of these findings for educators' work in a digital era and the future of research on educators' social media activities.

Spatially biased dispersal of acorns by a scatter-hoarding corvid may accelerate passive restoration of oak habitat on California's largest island

Scatter hoarding by corvids (crows, jays, magpies, and nutcrackers) provides seed dispersal for many large-seeded plants, including oaks and pines. When hoarding seeds, corvids often choose nonrandom locations throughout the landscape, resulting in differential survival of seeds. In the context of habitat restoration, such disproportional storing of seeds in areas suitable for germination and establishment can accelerate expansion and recovery of large-seeded tree populations and their associated ecosystems. Here, we investigate the spatial preferences of island scrub jays Aphelocoma insularis during scatter hoarding of acorns (Quercus spp.) on Santa Cruz Island. We use a large behavioral data set on the birds’ behavior in combination with seedling surveys and spatial analysis to determine whether 1) island scrub jays disproportionally cache seeds in specific habitat types, and 2) whether the preferred habitat type is suitable for oak regeneration. Our results show that the jays nonrandomly cache acorns across the landscape; they use chaparral and coastal sage scrub disproportionally while avoiding open and grassy areas. The areas used most often for caching were also the areas with the highest oak seedling densities. We discuss the potential role of these findings for the recovery of Santa Cruz Island’s oak habitat since the 1980s.

Dynamic conservation for migratory species

In an era of unprecedented and rapid global change, dynamic conservation strategies that tailor the delivery of habitat to when and where it is most needed can be critical for the persistence of species, especially those with diverse and dispersed habitat requirements. We demonstrate the effectiveness of such a strategy for migratory waterbirds. We analyzed citizen science and satellite data to develop predictive models of bird populations and the availability of wetlands, which we used to determine temporal and spatial gaps in habitat during a vital stage of the annual migration. We then filled those gaps using a reverse auction marketplace to incent qualifying landowners to create temporary wetlands on their properties. This approach is a cost-effective way of adaptively meeting habitat needs for migratory species, optimizes conservation outcomes relative to investment, and can be applied broadly to other conservation challenges.

Equipping the 22nd-Century Historical Ecologist

Historical ecology provides information needed to understand contemporary conditions and make science-based resource management decisions. Gaps in historical records, however, can limit inquiries and inference. Unfortunately, the patchiness of data that poses challenges for today's historical ecologist may be similarly problematic for those in the future seeking to understand what are currently present-day conditions and trends, in part because of societal underinvestment in systematic collection and curation. We therefore highlight the generational imperative that contemporary scientists and managers individually have - especially in this era of tremendous global change - to ensure sufficient documentation of the past and current conditions of the places and resources to which they have access.

Partial support for the central-marginal hypothesis within a population: reduced genetic diversity but not increased differentiation at the range edge of an island endemic bird

Large-scale population comparisons have contributed to our understanding of the evolution of geographic range limits and species boundaries, as well as the conservation value of populations at range margins. The central-marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts a decline in genetic diversity and an increase in genetic differentiation toward the periphery of species' ranges due to spatial variation in genetic drift and gene flow. Empirical studies on a diverse array of taxa have demonstrated support for the CMH. However, nearly all such studies come from widely distributed species, and have not considered if the same processes can be scaled down to single populations. Here, we test the CMH on a species composed of a single population: the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), endemic to a 250 km² island. We examined microsatellite data from a quarter of the total population and found that homozygosity increased toward the island's periphery. However, peripheral portions of the island did not exhibit higher genetic differentiation. Simulations revealed that highly localized dispersal and small total population size, but not spatial variation in population density, were critical for generating fine-scale variation in homozygosity. Collectively, these results demonstrate that microevolutionary processes driving spatial variation in genetic diversity among populations can also be important for generating spatial variation in genetic diversity within populations.

Phylogeographic and population genetic structure of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) in North American deserts

Fossil data are ambiguous regarding the evolutionary origin of contemporary desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis subspecies). To address this uncertainty, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses on bighorn sheep subspecies found in southwestern North America. We analyzed 515 base pairs of mtDNA control region sequence and 39 microsatellites in 804 individuals from 58 locations. Phylogenetic analyses revealed 2 highly divergent clades concordant with Sierra Nevada ( O. c. sierrae ) and Rocky Mountain ( O. c. canadensis ) bighorn and showed that these 2 subspecies both diverged from desert bighorn prior to or during the Illinoian glaciation (~315-94 thousand years ago [kya]). Desert bighorn comprised several more recently diverged haplogroups concordant with the putative Nelson ( O. c. nelsoni ), Mexican ( O. c. mexicana ), and Peninsular ( O. c. cremnobates ) subspecies. Corresponding estimates of effective splitting times (~17-3 kya), and haplogroup ages (~85-72 kya) placed the most likely timeframe for divergence among desert bighorn subspecies somewhere within the last glacial maximum. Median-joining haplotype network and Bayesian skyline analyses both indicated that desert bighorn collectively comprised a historically large and haplotype-diverse population, which subsequently lost much of its diversity through demographic decline. Using microsatellite data, discriminant analysis of principle components (DAPC) and Bayesian clustering analyses both indicated genetic structure concordant with the geographic distribution of 3 desert subspecies. Likewise, microsatellite and mitochondrial-based FST comparisons revealed significant fixation indices among the desert bighorn genetic clusters. We conclude these desert subspecies represent ancient lineages likely descended from separate Pleistocene refugial populations and should therefore be managed as distinct taxa to preserve maximal biodiversity. Los datos de fósiles sobre el origen evolutivo de las ovejas del desierto ( Ovis canadensis subespecies) contemporáneas son ambiguos. Para dilucidar esta incertidumbre, llevamos a cabo análisis filogeográficos y de genética de poblaciones entre cinco subespecies de ovejas del suroccidente de Norteamérica. Analizamos 515 pb de secuencia de la región control del ADN mitocondrial y 39 microsatélites en 804 ovejas de 58 localidades. Los análisis filogenéticos revelaron 2 clados altamente divergentes concordantes con ovejas de la Sierra Nevada ( O. c. sierrae ) y de las Montañas Rocosas ( O. c. canadensis ), y demostraron que estas dos subespecies divergieron antes o durante la glaciación de Illinois (315,000-94,000 años). Las ovejas del desierto formaron varios haplogrupos recientemente derivados concordantes con las subespecies de Nelson ( O. c. nelsoni ), México ( O. c. mexicana ) y peninsular ( O. c. cremnobates ). Las estimaciones correspondientes al tiempo de separación efectiva (17,000-3,000 años) y edades de haplogrupos (85,000-72,000 años) son los plazos más probables para las divergencias entre subespecies de ovejas del desierto dentro de la última glaciación máxima. Análisis de redes de haplotipos de unión de medias y análisis bayesianos de líneas de horizonte indicaron que las ovejas del desierto formaron una población históricamente grande y diversa en términos de haplotipos, que luego perdieron gran parte de su diversidad a través de un descenso demográfico. Utilizando datos de microsatélites los análisis DAPC y TESS indicaron agrupamiento genético concordante con la distribución geográfica actual de las tres subespecies. Asimismo, comparaciones de FST con datos de microsatélites y mitocondriales revelaron índices de fijación significativos entre los grupos genéticos de ovejas del desierto. Concluimos que estas subespecies de ovejas del desierto representan linajes antiguos que probablemente descienden de poblaciones de distintos refugios del Pleistoceno, y que por lo tanto deben ser manejadas como taxones distintos para preservar su biodiversidad máxima.

Context-dependent seed dispersal by a scatter-hoarding corvid

Corvids (crows, jays, magpies and nutcrackers) are important dispersers of large-seeded plants. Studies on captive or supplemented birds suggest that they flexibly adjust their scatter-hoarding behaviour to the context of social dynamics and relative seed availability. Because many corvid-dispersed trees show high annual variation in seed production, context-dependent foraging can have strong effects on natural corvid scatter-hoarding behaviour. We investigated how seed availability and social dynamics affected scatter-hoarding in the island scrub jays (Aphelocoma insularis). We quantified rates of scatter-hoarding behaviour and territorial defence of 26 colour-marked birds over a three-year period with variable acorn crops. We tested whether caching parameters were correlated with variation in annual seed production of oaks as predicted by the predator dispersal hypothesis, which states that caching rates and distances should vary with seed abundance in ways that benefit tree fitness. We also tested whether antagonistic interactions with conspecifics would affect scatter-hoarding adversely, as found in experimental studies. Caching behaviour varied with acorn availability. Caching distances correlated positively with annual acorn crop size, increasing by as much as 40% between years. Caching rates declined over time in years with small acorn crops, but increased when crops were large. Acorn foraging and caching rates were also negatively correlated with rates of territorial aggression. Overall foraging rates, however, were not associated with aggression, suggesting that reduced dispersal rates were not simply due to time constraints. Our field results support laboratory findings that caching rates and distances by scatter-hoarding corvids are context-dependent. Furthermore, our results are consistent with predictions of the predator dispersal hypothesis and suggest that large seed crops and social interactions among scatter-hoarders affect dispersal benefits for oaks and other masting tree species.

Survival and Mortality of Pumas (Puma concolor) in a Fragmented, Urbanizing Landscape

Wide-ranging large carnivores pose myriad challenges for conservation, especially in highly fragmented landscapes. Over a 13-year period, we combined monitoring of radio collared pumas (Puma concolor) with complementary multi-generational genetic analyses to inform puma conservation in southern California, USA. Our goals were to generate survivorship estimates, determine causes of mortality, identify barriers to movement, and determine the genetic and demographic challenges to puma persistence among >20,000,000 people and extensive urban, suburban, and exurban development. Despite protection from hunting, annual survival for radio collared pumas was surprisingly low (55.8%), and humans caused the majority of puma deaths. The most common sources of mortality were vehicle collisions (28% of deaths), and mortalities resulting from depredation permits issued after pumas killed domestic animals (17% of deaths). Other human-caused mortalities included illegal shootings, public safety removals, and human-caused wildfire. An interstate highway (I-15) bisecting this study area, and associated development, have created a nearly impermeable barrier to puma movements, resulting in severe genetic restriction and demographic isolation of the small puma population (n ~ 17-27 adults) in the Santa Ana Mountains west of I-15. Highways that bisect habitat or divide remaining "conserved" habitat, and associated ongoing development, threaten to further subdivide this already fragmented puma population and increase threats to survival. This study highlights the importance of combining demographic and genetic analyses, and illustrates that in the absence of effective measures to reduce mortality and enhance safe movement across highways, translocation of pumas, such as was done with the endangered Florida panther (P. c. coryi), may ultimately be necessary to prevent further genetic decline and ensure persistence of the Santa Ana Mountains population.

Patterns of Freshwater Species Richness, Endemism, and Vulnerability in California

The ranges and abundances of species that depend on freshwater habitats are declining worldwide. Efforts to counteract those trends are often hampered by a lack of information about species distribution and conservation status and are often strongly biased toward a few well-studied groups. We identified the 3,906 vascular plants, macroinvertebrates, and vertebrates native to California, USA, that depend on fresh water for at least one stage of their life history. We evaluated the conservation status for these taxa using existing government and non-governmental organization assessments (e.g., endangered species act, NatureServe), created a spatial database of locality observations or distribution information from ~400 data sources, and mapped patterns of richness, endemism, and vulnerability. Although nearly half of all taxa with conservation status (n = 1,939) are vulnerable to extinction, only 114 (6%) of those vulnerable taxa have a legal mandate for protection in the form of formal inclusion on a state or federal endangered species list. Endemic taxa are at greater risk than non-endemics, with 90% of the 927 endemic taxa vulnerable to extinction. Records with spatial data were available for a total of 2,276 species (61%). The patterns of species richness differ depending on the taxonomic group analyzed, but are similar across taxonomic level. No particular taxonomic group represents an umbrella for all species, but hotspots of high richness for listed species cover 40% of the hotspots for all other species and 58% of the hotspots for vulnerable freshwater species. By mapping freshwater species hotspots we show locations that represent the top priority for conservation action in the state. This study identifies opportunities to fill gaps in the evaluation of conservation status for freshwater taxa in California, to address the lack of occurrence information for nearly 40% of freshwater taxa and nearly 40% of watersheds in the state, and to implement adequate protections for freshwater taxa where they are currently lacking.

Islands within an island: repeated adaptive divergence in a single population

Physical barriers to gene flow were once viewed as prerequisites for adaptive evolutionary divergence. However, a growing body of theoretical and empirical work suggests that divergence can proceed within a single population. Here we document genetic structure and spatially replicated patterns of phenotypic divergence within a bird species endemic to 250 km(2) Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. Island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis) in three separate stands of pine habitat had longer, shallower bills than jays in oak habitat, a pattern that mirrors adaptive differences between allopatric populations of the species' mainland congener. Variation in both bill measurements was heritable, and island scrub-jays mated nonrandomly with respect to bill morphology. The population was not panmictic; instead, we found a continuous pattern of isolation by distance across the east-west axis of the island, as well as a subtle genetic discontinuity across the boundary between the largest pine stand and adjacent oak habitat. The ecological factors that appear to have facilitated adaptive differentiation at such a fine scale--environmental heterogeneity and localized dispersal--are ubiquitous in nature. These findings support recent arguments that microgeographic patterns of adaptive divergence may be more common than currently appreciated, even in mobile taxonomic groups like birds.

Mitochondrial genomes suggest rapid evolution of dwarf California Channel Islands foxes (Urocyon littoralis)

Island endemics are typically differentiated from their mainland progenitors in behavior, morphology, and genetics, often resulting from long-term evolutionary change. To examine mechanisms for the origins of island endemism, we present a phylogeographic analysis of whole mitochondrial genomes from the endangered island fox (Urocyon littoralis), endemic to California's Channel Islands, and mainland gray foxes (U. cinereoargenteus). Previous genetic studies suggested that foxes first appeared on the islands >16,000 years ago, before human arrival (~13,000 cal BP), while archaeological and paleontological data supported a colonization >7000 cal BP. Our results are consistent with initial fox colonization of the northern islands probably by rafting or human introduction ~9200-7100 years ago, followed quickly by human translocation of foxes from the northern to southern Channel Islands. Mitogenomes indicate that island foxes are monophyletic and most closely related to gray foxes from northern California that likely experienced a Holocene climate-induced range shift. Our data document rapid morphological evolution of island foxes (in ~2000 years or less). Despite evidence for bottlenecks, island foxes have generated and maintained multiple mitochondrial haplotypes. This study highlights the intertwined evolutionary history of island foxes and humans, and illustrates a new approach for investigating the evolutionary histories of other island endemics.

Fractured genetic connectivity threatens a southern california puma (Puma concolor) population

Pumas (Puma concolor; also known as mountain lions and cougars) in southern California live among a burgeoning human population of roughly 20 million people. Yet little is known of the consequences of attendant habitat loss and fragmentation, and human-caused puma mortality to puma population viability and genetic diversity. We examined genetic status of pumas in coastal mountains within the Peninsular Ranges south of Los Angeles, in San Diego, Riverside, and Orange counties. The Santa Ana Mountains are bounded by urbanization to the west, north, and east, and are separated from the eastern Peninsular Ranges to the southeast by a ten lane interstate highway (I-15). We analyzed DNA samples from 97 pumas sampled between 2001 and 2012. Genotypic data for forty-six microsatellite loci revealed that pumas sampled in the Santa Ana Mountains (n = 42) displayed lower genetic diversity than pumas from nearly every other region in California tested (n = 257), including those living in the Peninsular Ranges immediately to the east across I-15 (n = 55). Santa Ana Mountains pumas had high average pairwise relatedness, high individual internal relatedness, a low estimated effective population size, and strong evidence of a bottleneck and isolation from other populations in California. These and ecological findings provide clear evidence that Santa Ana Mountains pumas have been experiencing genetic impacts related to barriers to gene flow, and are a warning signal to wildlife managers and land use planners that mitigation efforts will be needed to stem further genetic and demographic decay in the Santa Ana Mountains puma population.

Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population

Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong.

Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural disasters and to habitat alteration related to climate change. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical distance-sampling models hold promise for estimating population size and spatial density variation at large scales. Our statistical methods have been incorporated into the R package unmarked to facilitate their use by animal ecologists, and we provide annotated code in the Supplement.

An approach to enhance the conservation-compatibility of solar energy development

The rapid pace of climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity. Utility-scale renewable energy development (>1 MW capacity) is a key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but development of those facilities also can have adverse effects on biodiversity. Here, we examine the synergy between renewable energy generation goals and those for biodiversity conservation in the 13 M ha Mojave Desert of the southwestern USA. We integrated spatial data on biodiversity conservation value, solar energy potential, and land surface slope angle (a key determinant of development feasibility) and found there to be sufficient area to meet renewable energy goals without developing on lands of relatively high conservation value. Indeed, we found nearly 200,000 ha of lower conservation value land below the most restrictive slope angle (<1%); that area could meet the state of California's current 33% renewable energy goal 1.8 times over. We found over 740,000 ha below the highest slope angle (<5%)--an area that can meet California's renewable energy goal seven times over. Our analysis also suggests that the supply of high quality habitat on private land may be insufficient to mitigate impacts from future solar projects, so enhancing public land management may need to be considered among the options to offset such impacts. Using the approach presented here, planners could reduce development impacts on areas of higher conservation value, and so reduce trade-offs between converting to a green energy economy and conserving biodiversity.

Surveillance for West Nile virus and vaccination of free-ranging island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis) on Santa Cruz Island, California

Transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) on mainland California poses an ongoing threat to the island scrub-jay (ISSJ, Aphelocoma insularis), a species that occurs only on Santa Cruz Island, California, and whose total population numbers <5000. Our report describes the surveillance and management efforts conducted since 2006 that are designed to understand and mitigate for the consequences of WNV introduction into the ISSJ population. We suspect that WNV would most likely be introduced to the island via the movement of infected birds from the mainland. However, antibody testing of >750 migrating and resident birds on the island from 2006 to 2009 indicated that WNV had not become established by the end of 2009. Several species of competent mosquito vectors were collected at very low abundance on the island, including the important mainland vectors Culex tarsalis and Culex quinquefasciatus. However, the island was generally cooler than areas of mainland California that experienced intense WNV transmission, and these lower temperatures may have reduced the likelihood of WNV becoming established because they do not support efficient virus replication in mosquitoes. A vaccination program was initiated in 2008 to create a rescue population of ISSJ that would be more likely to survive a catastrophic outbreak. To further that goal, we recommend managers vaccinate >100 ISSJ each year as part of ongoing research and monitoring efforts.

Efficacy of three vaccines in protecting Western Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma californica) from experimental infection with West Nile virus: implications for vaccination of Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis)

The devastating effect of West Nile virus (WNV) on the avifauna of North America has led zoo managers and conservationists to attempt to protect vulnerable species through vaccination. The Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis) is one such species, being a corvid with a highly restricted insular range. Herein, we used congeneric Western Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma californica) to test the efficacy of three WNV vaccines in protecting jays from an experimental challenge with WNV: (1) the Fort Dodge West Nile-Innovator(®) DNA equine vaccine, (2) an experimental DNA plasmid vaccine, pCBWN, and (3) the Merial Recombitek(®) equine vaccine. Vaccine efficacy after challenge was compared with naïve and nonvaccinated positive controls and a group of naturally immune jays. Overall, vaccination lowered peak viremia compared with nonvaccinated positive controls, but some WNV-related pathology persisted and the viremia was sufficient to possibly infect susceptible vector mosquitoes. The Fort Dodge West Nile-Innovator DNA equine vaccine and the pCBWN vaccine provided humoral immune priming and limited side effects. Five of the six birds vaccinated with the Merial Recombitek vaccine, including a vaccinated, non-WNV challenged control, developed extensive necrotic lesions in the pectoral muscle at the vaccine inoculation sites, which were attributed to the Merial vaccine. In light of the well-documented devastating effects of high morbidity and mortality associated with WNV infection in corvids, vaccination of Island Scrub-Jays with either the Fort Dodge West Nile-Innovator DNA vaccine or the pCBWN vaccine may increase the numbers of birds that would survive an epizootic should WNV become established on Santa Cruz Island.

Quantifying eradication success: the removal of feral pigs from Santa Cruz Island, California

A major challenge facing pest-eradication efforts is determining when eradication has been achieved. When the pest can no longer be detected, managers have to decide whether the pest has actually been eliminated and hence to decide when to terminate the eradication program. For most eradication programs, this decision entails considerable risk and is the largest single issue facing managers of such programs. We addressed this issue for an eradication program of feral pigs (Sus scrofa) from Santa Cruz Island, California. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the degree of confidence in the success of the eradication program at the point when monitoring failed to detect any more pigs. Catch-effort modeling of the hunting effort required to dispatch pigs during the eradication program was used to determine the relationship between detection probability and searching effort for different hunting methods. We then used these relationships to estimate the amount of monitoring effort required to declare eradication successful with criteria that either set a threshold for the probability that pigs remained undetected (type I error) or minimized the net expected costs of the eradication program (cost of type I and II errors). For aerial and ground-based monitoring techniques, the amount of search effort required to declare eradication successful on the basis of either criterion was highly dependent on the prior belief in the success of the program unless monitoring intensities exceeded 30 km of searching effort per square kilometer of search area for aerial monitoring and, equivalently, 38 km for ground monitoring. Calculation of these criteria to gauge the success of eradication should form an essential component of any eradication program as it allows for a transparent assessment of the risks inherent in the decision to terminate the program.

Conserving connectivity: some lessons from mountain lions in southern California

Habitat corridors can be essential for persistence of wildlife populations in fragmented landscapes. Although much research has focused on identifying species and places critical for conservation action, the conservation literature contains surprisingly few examples of corridors that actually have been protected and so provides little guidance for moving from planning through implementation. We examined a case study from southern California that combines monitoring of radio-collared mountain lions (Puma concolor) with an assessment of land-protection efforts to illustrate lessons learned while attempting to maintain ecological connectivity in a rapidly urbanizing landscape. As in many places, conservation scientists have provided science-based maps of where conservation efforts should focus. But implementing corridors is a business decision based not solely on ecological information but also on cost, opportunity cost, investment risk, and other feasibility considerations. Here, the type and pattern of development is such that key connections will be lost unless they are explicitly protected. Keeping pace with conversion, however, has been difficult, especially because conservation efforts have been limited to traditional parcel-by-parcel land-protection techniques. The challenges of and trade-offs in implementation make it clear that in southern California, connectivity cannot be bought one parcel at a time. Effective land-use plans and policies that incorporate conservation principles, such as California's Natural Communities Conservation Planning program, are needed to support the retention of landscape permeability. Lessons from this study have broad application, especially as a precautionary tale for places where such extensive and intensive development has not yet occurred. Given how limiting resources are for biodiversity conservation, conservationists must be disciplined about where and how they attempt corridor protection: in rapidly fragmenting landscapes, the opportunity for success can be surprisingly fleeting.

Expanding the global network of protected areas to save the imperiled mediterranean biome

: Global goals established by the Convention on Biological Diversity stipulate that 10% of the world's ecological regions must be effectively conserved by 2010. To meet that goal for the mediterranean biome, at least 5% more land must be formally protected over the next few years. Although global assessments identify the mediterranean biome as a priority, without biologically meaningful analysis units, finer-resolution data, and corresponding prioritization analysis, future conservation investments could lead to more area being protected without increasing the representation of unique mediterranean ecosystems. We used standardized analysis units and six potential natural vegetation types stratified by 3 elevation zones in a global gap analysis that systematically explored conservation priorities across the mediterranean biome. The highest levels of protection were in Australia, South Africa, and California-Baja California (from 9-11%), and the lowest levels of protection were in Chile and the mediterranean Basin (<1%). Protection was skewed to montane elevations in three out of five regions. Across the biome only one of the six vegetation types--mediterranean shrubland--exceeded 10% protection. The remaining vegetation types--grassland, scrub, succulent dominated, woodland, and forest--each had <3% protection. To guard against biases in future protection efforts and ensure the protection of species characteristic of the mediterranean biome, we identified biodiversity assemblages with <10% protection and subject to >30% conversion and suggest that these assemblages be elevated to high-priority status in future conservation efforts.

Nitrogen enrichment modifies plant community structure via changes to plant-soil feedback

We tested the hypothesis that N enrichment modifies plant-soil feedback relationships, resulting in changes to plant community composition. This was done in a two-phase glasshouse experiment. In the first phase, we grew eight annual plant species in monoculture at two levels of N addition. Plants were harvested at senescence and the effect of each species on a range of soil properties was measured. In the second phase, the eight plant species were grown in multi-species mixtures in the eight soils conditioned by the species in the first phase, at both levels of N addition. At senescence, species performance was measured as aboveground biomass. We found that in the first phase, plant species identity strongly influenced several soil properties, including microbial and protist biomass, soil moisture content and the availability of several soil nutrients. Species effects on the soil were mostly independent of N addition and several were strongly correlated with plant biomass. In the second phase, both the performance of individual species and overall community structure were influenced by the interacting effects of the species identity of the previous soil occupant and the rate of N addition. This indicates that N enrichment modified plant-soil feedback. The performance of two species correlated with differences in soil N availability that were generated by the species formerly occupying the soil. However, negative feedback (poorer performance on the soil of conspecifics relative to that of heterospecifics) was only observed for one species. In conclusion, we provide evidence that N enrichment modifies plant-soil feedback relationships and that these modifications may affect plant community composition. Field testing and further investigations into which mechanisms dominate feedback are required before we fully understand how and when feedback processes determine plant community responses to N enrichment.

Protecting biodiversity when money matters: maximizing return on investment

Background

Conventional wisdom identifies biodiversity hotspots as priorities for conservation investment because they capture dense concentrations of species. However, density of species does not necessarily imply conservation ‘efficiency’. Here we explicitly consider conservation efficiency in terms of species protected per dollar invested.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We apply a dynamic return on investment approach to a global biome and compare it with three alternate priority setting approaches and a random allocation of funding. After twenty years of acquiring habitat, the return on investment approach protects between 32% and 69% more species compared to the other priority setting approaches. To correct for potential inefficiencies of protecting the same species multiple times we account for the complementarity of species, protecting up to three times more distinct vertebrate species than alternate approaches.

Conclusions/Significance

Incorporating costs in a return on investment framework expands priorities to include areas not traditionally highlighted as priorities based on conventional irreplaceability and vulnerability approaches.

Conserving biodiversity efficiently: what to do, where, and when

Conservation priority-setting schemes have not yet combined geographic priorities with a framework that can guide the allocation of funds among alternate conservation actions that address specific threats. We develop such a framework, and apply it to 17 of the world's 39 Mediterranean ecoregions. This framework offers an improvement over approaches that only focus on land purchase or species richness and do not account for threats. We discover that one could protect many more plant and vertebrate species by investing in a sequence of conservation actions targeted towards specific threats, such as invasive species control, land acquisition, and off-reserve management, than by relying solely on acquiring land for protected areas. Applying this new framework will ensure investment in actions that provide the most cost-effective outcomes for biodiversity conservation. This will help to minimise the misallocation of scarce conservation resources.

Given limited funds for biodiversity conservation, we need to carefully prioritise where funds are spent. Various schemes have been developed to set priorities for conservation spending among different countries and regions. However, there is no framework for guiding the allocation of funds among alternative conservation actions that address specific threats. Here, we develop such a framework, and apply it to 17 of the world's 39 Mediterranean-climate ecoregions. We discover that one could protect many more plant and vertebrate species by investing in a sequence of conservation actions targeted towards specific threats, such as invasive species control and fire management, rather than by relying solely on acquiring land for protected areas. Applying this new framework will ensure investment in actions that provide the most cost-effective outcomes for biodiversity conservation.

A new framework applied to 17 of the world's Mediterranean ecoregions reveals that investing in a sequence of conservation actions targeted towards specific threats will protect more species than just acquiring land for protected areas.

Quantitative model for prediction of hydrodynamic size of nonionic reverse micelles

The sizes of nonionic reverse micelles were investigated as a function of the molecular structure of the surfactant, the type of oil, the total concentration of surfactant [NP], the ratio of surfactant to total surfactant (r), the water to surfactant molar ratio (omega), temperature, salt concentration, and polar phase. The basis of our investigation was a mixture of nonylphenol polyethoxylates--NP4 and NP7, various polar phases, and several oils. Micelle sizes were determined using dynamic light scattering (DLS). A central composite experimental design was used to quantitatively model micelle size as a function of omega, surfactant concentration, and r. The model has demonstrated the capability of predicting the mean diameter of micelles from 4 to 13 with a precision of +/-2 nm as measured by DLS. This quantitative correlation between the size of reverse micelles and the synthetic variables provides the foundation for choosing experimental conditions to control reverse micelle size. In turn, this allows control of the size of nanoparticles synthesized within them.

Predictors of HIV-specific lymphocyte proliferative immune responses induced by therapeutic vaccination

We treated a cohort of 38 HIV-infected individuals with a therapeutic vaccine (REMUNE, HIV-1 Immunogen) in an open label study. We then determined whether baseline parameters, such as CD4 cell count, viral load and IgG levels, were predictive of the magnitude of the HIV-specific lymphocyte proliferative responses (LPRs). We demonstrate herein that there is a significant enhancement from baseline for both HIV and p24 antigen-stimulated LPRs after immunization. Using a responder definition of a stimulation index of >5 on at least two post-immunization time-points, 29/38 (76%) responded to HIV-1 antigen while 27/38 (71%) responded to native p24 antigen. Viral load and total IgG were negatively correlated, while CD4 cell counts were positively associated with the magnitude of the HIV antigen LPR. In a multivariable analysis, baseline CD4 was the best predictor of HIV antigen LPR post-immunization.

Anti-F(ab')2 antibody in HIV type 1 infection: relationship to hypergammaglobulinemia and to antibody specific to the V3 loop region of glycoprotein 120

As HIV infection and autoimmune disease share certain similarities, it has been suggested that HIV may disrupt control of humoral immunity by the antiidiotype network, and that this may be evident as increased IgG antibody to F(ab')2. When anti-F(ab')2 was quantified by ELISA in sera of randomly chosen HIV-infected versus uninfected donors, some HIV-infected sera did contain increased anti-F(ab')2, resulting in a median amount twofold higher than in uninfected sera. Moreover, when data were grouped by blood CD4 lymphocyte count, anti-F(ab')2 in HIV+ groups appeared to rise as CD4 lymphocytes declined. However, increased anti-F(ab')2 mirrored the elevation in serum IgG closely, and normalization of anti-F(ab')2 to serum IgG concentration equalized the groups so that no relationship to CD4 lymphocytes remained. Hypergammaglobulinemia is therefore strongly implicated as a cause of variation in anti-F(ab')2. After dissociation of immune complexes, anti-F(ab')2 activity per microgram of monomeric IgG was slightly increased over normal only in the HIV-infected group with fewest CD4 lymphocytes, without statistical significance. In contrast, the proportion of IgG antibody to the V3-neutralizing determinant in HIV-1 decreased significantly as disease advanced. The same was true for 12 HIV+ individuals studied longitudinally for 500-1300 days. The data suggest that measuring serum anti-F(ab')2 is misleading when immune complexes are present: apparent increases as disease progresses are due to increased IgG and, possibly, to related technical artifacts. During HIV infection, the proportion of antiidiotypic IgG in fact remains unaltered or falls, making this an unlikely cause of suppressed humoral immunity to HIV-1.