EEG functional connectivity as a Riemannian mediator: An application to malnutrition and cognition

Mediation analysis assesses whether an exposure directly produces changes in cognitive behavior or is influenced by intermediate "mediators". Electroencephalographic (EEG) spectral measurements have been previously used as effective mediators representing diverse aspects of brain function. However, it has been necessary to collapse EEG measures onto a single scalar using standard mediation methods. In this article, we overcome this limitation and examine EEG frequency-resolved functional connectivity measures as a mediator using the full EEG cross-spectral tensor (CST). Since CST samples do not exist in Euclidean space but in the Riemannian manifold of positive-definite tensors, we transform the problem, allowing for the use of classic multivariate statistics. Toward this end, we map the data from the original manifold space to the Euclidean tangent space, eliminating redundant information to conform to a "compressed CST." The resulting object is a matrix with rows corresponding to frequencies and columns to cross spectra between channels. We have developed a novel matrix mediation approach that leverages a nuclear norm regularization to determine the matrix-valued regression parameters. Furthermore, we introduced a global test for the overall CST mediation and a test to determine specific channels and frequencies driving the mediation. We validated the method through simulations and applied it to our well-studied 50+-year Barbados Nutrition Study dataset by comparing EEGs collected in school-age children (5-11 years) who were malnourished in the first year of life with those of healthy classmate controls. We hypothesized that the CST mediates the effect of malnutrition on cognitive performance. We can now explicitly pinpoint the frequencies (delta, theta, alpha, and beta bands) and regions (frontal, central, and occipital) in which functional connectivity was altered in previously malnourished children, an improvement to prior studies. Understanding the specific networks impacted by a history of postnatal malnutrition could pave the way for developing more targeted and personalized therapeutic interventions. Our methods offer a versatile framework applicable to mediation studies encompassing matrix and Hermitian 3D tensor mediators alongside scalar exposures and outcomes, facilitating comprehensive analyses across diverse research domains.

Faith-based leaders' perceptions on the implementation of programs to promote healthy lifestyles in churches in Barbados-a mixed-methods analysis

Background

There is a high burden of chronic diseases such as hypertension and diabetes in small island developing states (SIDS). SIDS governments have committed to a range of public health, healthcare, and fiscal measures to reduce this burden including community-based health education in collaboration with civil society organizations. We sought to explore perceived acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility of implementing self-management health programs in 20 faith-based organizations in the small island developing state of Barbados.

Methods

This was a concurrent mixed methods study - a quantitative online survey and a qualitative inquiry using semi-structured interviews. Acceptability, appropriateness and feasibility of the intervention were assessed using the following quantitative assessment tools: Acceptability of Intervention Measure (AIM), Intervention Appropriateness Measure (IAM) and Feasibility of Intervention Measure (FIM). Thirteen in-depth interviews were conducted virtually, recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were analyzed using thematic analysis based on deductive codes from Proctor's implementation outcomes definitions.

Results

From the 52 respondents of the survey, the median and interquartile ranges for the AIM, IAM and FIM scales were 16 (15-20), 16 (16-20) and 16 (15-17) (out of 20), respectively. We found high levels of acceptability, 82% (95% CI (69%, 95%)) of leaders indicating that health programs in churches met with their approval; and high levels of appropriateness-90% (95% CI (80%, 100%)) indicating health programs in churches were "fitting" and "a good match". Feasibility scores were lower, with 60% (95% CI (44%, 76%)) indicating that health programs in churches would be easy to use. In interviews, leaders expressed acceptance of healthy lifestyle programs in churches and described their appropriateness through alignment with church doctrines stating, "the body is the temple of God". They felt that economic impacts from COVID-19 were likely to be a barrier to the success of programs. Leaders expressed the need for support from healthcare providers who are sensitive and respectful of church culture.

Conclusion

We found that health-based programs in churches align well with church doctrines, but the success of these programs will depend on establishing trust through the engagement of church-based champions, tailoring programming to include a biblical perspective and engaging entire households.

Gender Differences in Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Acute Myocardial Infarction in the Small Island Developing State of Barbados

Objective To determine trends, identify predictors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence and mortality, and explore performance metrics for AMI care in Barbados. Methods Data on all cases diagnosed with AMI were collected by the Barbados National Registry for Non-Communicable Diseases (BNR) from the island's only tertiary hospital, the Queen Elizabeth Hospital, and the National Vital Registration Department. Participants who survived hospital admission were then followed up at 28 days and one year post event via telephone survey and retrieval of death certificates. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated. Determinants of mortality at 28 days were examined in multivariable logistic regression models. Median and interquartile ranges (IQR) were calculated for performance metrics (e.g., time from pain onset to reperfusion). Results In a 10-year period between 2010 and 2019, 4,065 cases of myocardial infarction were recorded. The median age of the sample was 73 years (IQR: 61,83), and approximately half (47%) were female. Over a 10-year period, standardized incidence increased in women on average yearly by three per 100,000 (95% CI: 1 to 6; p=0.02), while in men, the average increase per year was six per 100,000 (95% CI: 4 to 8; p<0.001). There was no increase in 28-day mortality in women; mortality in men increased each year by 2.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.4 to 4.5; p=0.02). The time from arrival at the hospital to the ECG was 44 minutes IQR (20,113). Conclusion AMI incidence and mortality are increasing in Barbados, and men have a higher velocity of mortality rate increase than women, which contradicts global data.

Marital Status, Living Arrangement, and Survival among Individuals with Advanced Prostate Cancer in the International Registry for Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown improved survival among individuals with cancer with higher levels of social support. Few studies have investigated social support and overall survival (OS) in individuals with advanced prostate cancer in an international cohort. We investigated the associations of marital status and living arrangements with OS among individuals with advanced prostate cancer in the International Registry for Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer (IRONMAN).

METHODS

IRONMAN is enrolling participants diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer (metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, mHSPC; castration-resistant prostate cancer, CRPC) from 16 countries. Participants in this analysis were recruited between July 2017 and January 2023. Adjusting for demographics and tumor characteristics, the associations were estimated using Cox regression and stratified by disease state (mHSPC, CRPC), age (<70, ≥70 years), and continent of enrollment (North America, Europe, Other).

RESULTS

We included 2,119 participants with advanced prostate cancer, of whom 427 died during up to 5 years of follow-up (median 6 months). Two-thirds had mHSPC. Most were married/in a civil partnership (79%) and 6% were widowed. Very few married participants were living alone (1%), while most unmarried participants were living alone (70%). Married participants had better OS than unmarried participants [adjusted HR: 1.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-2.02]. Widowed participants had the worst survival compared with married individuals (adjusted HR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.22-2.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Among those with advanced prostate cancer, unmarried and widowed participants had worse OS compared with married participants.

IMPACT

This research highlighted the importance of social support in OS within this vulnerable population.

A Longitudinal Clinical Trajectory Analysis Examining the Accumulation of Co-morbidity in People with Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) Compared with Non-T2D Individuals

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is commonly associated with an increasing complexity of multimorbidity. While some progress has been made in identifying genetic and non-genetic risk factors for T2D, understanding the longitudinal clinical history of individuals before/after T2D diagnosis may provide additional insights.

METHODS

In this study, we utilised longitudinal data from the DARE (Diabetes Alliance for Research in England) study to examine the trajectory of clinical conditions in individuals with and without T2D. Data from 1932 individuals (T2D n = 1196 vs. matched non-T2D controls n = 736) were extracted and subjected to trajectory analysis over a period of up to 50 years (25 years pre-diagnosis/25 years post-diagnosis). We also analysed the cumulative proportion of people with diagnosed coronary artery disease (CAD) in their general practice (GP) record with an analysis of lower respiratory tract infection (RTI) as a comparator group.

RESULTS

The mean age of diagnosis of T2D was 52.6 (95% confidence interval 52.0-53.4) years. In the years leading up to T2D diagnosis, individuals who eventually received a T2D diagnosis consistently exhibited a considerable increase in several clinical phenotypes. Additionally, immediately prior to T2D diagnosis, a significantly greater prevalence of hypertension (35%)/RTI (34%)/heart conditions (17%)/eye, nose, throat infection (19%) and asthma (12%) were observed. The corresponding trajectory of each of these conditions was much less dramatic in the matched controls. Post-T2D diagnosis, proportions of T2D individuals exhibiting hypertension/chronic kidney disease/retinopathy/infections climbed rapidly before plateauing. At the last follow-up by quintile of disadvantage, the proportion (%) of people with diagnosed CAD was 6.4% for quintile 1 (least disadvantaged) and 11% for quintile 5 (F = 3.4, p = 0.01 for the difference between quintiles).

CONCLUSION

These findings provide novel insights into the onset/natural progression of T2D, suggesting an early phase of inflammation-related disease activity before any clinical diagnosis of T2D is made. Measures that reduce social inequality have the potential in the longer term to reduce the social gradient in health outcomes reported here.

Sodium and potassium consumption in Jamaica: National estimates and associated factors from the Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey 2016-2017

This study aimed to estimate dietary sodium and potassium consumption among Jamaicans and evaluate associations with sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey 2016-2017. Participants were noninstitutionalized Jamaicans aged ≥15 years. Trained staff collected sociodemographic and health data via interviewer-administered questionnaires and spot urine samples. The Pan American Health Organization formula was used to estimate 24-hour urine sodium and potassium excretion. High sodium level was defined as ≥2000 mg/day, and low potassium levels as <3510 mg/day (World Health Organization criteria). Associations between these outcomes and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were explored using multivariable ANOVA models using log-transformed 24-hour urine sodium and potassium as outcome variables. Analyses included 1009 participants (368 males, 641 females; mean age 48.5 years). The mean sodium excretion was 3582 mg/day (males 3943 mg/day, females 3245 mg/day, P < .001). The mean potassium excretion was 2052 mg/day (males, 2210 mg/day; females, 1904 mg/day; P = .001). The prevalence of high sodium consumption was 66.6% (males 72.8%, females 60.7%, P < .001) and that of low potassium intake was 88.8% (85.1% males, 92.3% females, P < .001). Sodium consumption was inversely associated with older age, higher education, and low glomerular filtration rate but was directly associated with being male, current smoking, and obesity. Overall, males had higher sodium consumption than women, with the effect being larger among hypertensive men. Women with hypertension had lower sodium consumption than nonhypertensive women; however, hypertensive men had higher sodium consumption than nonhypertensive men. Potassium consumption was higher among men, persons with obesity, and those with high total cholesterol but was lower among men with "more than high school" education compared to men with "less than high school" education. We conclude that most Jamaican adults have diets high in sodium and low in potassium. In this study, sodium consumption was directly associated with male sex, obesity, and current smoking but was inversely associated with older age and higher education. High potassium consumption was associated with obesity and high cholesterol levels. These associations should be further explored in longitudinal studies and population-based strategies should be developed to address these cardiovascular risk factors.

Spectral quantitative and semi-quantitative EEG provide complementary information on the life-long effects of early childhood malnutrition on cognitive decline

Objective

This study compares the complementary information from semi-quantitative EEG (sqEEG) and spectral quantitative EEG (spectral-qEEG) to detect the life-long effects of early childhood malnutrition on the brain.

Methods

Resting-state EEGs (N = 202) from the Barbados Nutrition Study (BNS) were used to examine the effects of protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) on childhood and middle adulthood outcomes. sqEEG analysis was performed on Grand Total EEG (GTE) protocol, and a single latent variable, the semi-quantitative Neurophysiological State (sqNPS) was extracted. A univariate linear mixed-effects (LME) model tested the dependence of sqNPS and nutritional group. sqEEG was compared with scores on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Stable sparse classifiers (SSC) also measured the predictive power of sqEEG, spectral-qEEG, and a combination of both. Multivariate LME was applied to assess each EEG modality separately and combined under longitudinal settings.

Results

The univariate LME showed highly significant differences between previously malnourished and control groups (p < 0.001); age (p = 0.01) was also significant, with no interaction between group and age detected. Childhood sqNPS (p = 0.02) and adulthood sqNPS (p = 0.003) predicted MoCA scores in adulthood. The SSC demonstrated that spectral-qEEG combined with sqEEG had the highest predictive power (mean AUC 0.92 ± 0.005). Finally, multivariate LME showed that the combined spectral-qEEG+sqEEG models had the highest log-likelihood (-479.7).

Conclusion

This research has extended our prior work with spectral-qEEG and the long-term impact of early childhood malnutrition on the brain. Our findings showed that sqNPS was significantly linked to accelerated cognitive aging at 45-51 years of age. While sqNPS and spectral-qEEG produced comparable results, our study indicated that combining sqNPS and spectral-qEEG yielded better performance than either method alone, suggesting that a multimodal approach could be advantageous for future investigations.

Significance

Based on our findings, a semi-quantitative approach utilizing GTE could be a valuable diagnostic tool for detecting the lasting impacts of childhood malnutrition. Notably, sqEEG has not been previously explored or reported as a biomarker for assessing the longitudinal effects of malnutrition. Furthermore, our observations suggest that sqEEG offers unique features and information not captured by spectral quantitative EEG analysis and could lead to its improvement.

Neighborhoods and adolescent polysubstance use in Jamaica

Background

The purpose of this study was to identify latent classes of polysubstance use among adolescents in Jamaica and the role of neighborhood factors in the association with polysubstance use class membership.

Methods

This secondary analysis utilized a national cross-sectional household drug use survey conducted across 357 households in Jamaica (April 2016-July 2016) among a total of 4,625 individuals. A total of 750 adolescents (11-17 years) were included in this analysis. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted to identify polysubstance use patterns as well as latent neighborhood constructs. Neighborhood factors included social disorganization, concentrated disadvantage, community resources, community violence, and police station concentration. Multinomial regression analysis was implemented to evaluate the association between polysubstance use class membership and latent classes of neighborhood factors.

Result

The prevalence of lifetime polysubstance use was 27.56%. Four classes of polysubstance use were identified by comparing a series of five class models. The Bootstrap Likelihood Ratio Test (BLRT) indicated a good fit for the four-class model (<0.001). The prevalence of alcohol latent classes was: (1) heavy alcohol users and experimental smokers (Class I) (15.20%), (2) most hazardous polysubstance users (Class II) (5.33%), (3) heavy smokers and moderate alcohol users (Class III) (7.07%), and (4) experimental alcohol users (Class IV) (72.44%). Three classes of neighborhoods were identified by comparing a series of four-class models. The prevalence of the neighborhood classes was: (1) low social disorganization and disadvantage (Class I) (58.93%), (2) high social disorganization and moderate disadvantage (Class II) (10.93%), and (3) high social disorganization related to perceived drug use and disadvantage (Class III) (30.13%). The BLRT indicated a good fit for the three-class model (p =  < 0.004). Multinomial regression analysis indicated that adolescents living in neighborhoods with high disorder and moderate disadvantage (Class II) were 2.43 times (odds ratio (OR)) = 2.43, confidence interval (CI)) = 1.30-4.56) more likely to be heavy alcohol users and experimental smokers (Class I) compared to experimental alcohol users, adjusting for sex, age, ethnicity, religion, and income. Class II of neighborhood classes presented with the highest levels of community violence (100%), perceived disorder crime (64.6%), police station concentration (6.7%), and community resources (low resources is 87.6%), while the concentrated disadvantage was moderate (14.8%).

Conclusions

Alcohol polysubstance use latent classes were identified among youth in this context. Neighborhoods with high disorder and moderate disadvantage (Class II) were associated with a higher likelihood of polysubstance use. The role of neighborhood conditions in shaping adolescent polysubstance use should be considered in policy, prevention, and treatment interventions.

IRONMAN: A Novel International Registry of Men With Advanced Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE

To describe a newly established international registry recruiting diverse patients with advanced prostate cancer across academic and community practices to address unmet needs in this population.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Initiated in 2017, IRONMAN (International Registry for Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer) is a prospective cohort of patients with advanced prostate cancer. The study will enroll 5,000 patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) or castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), recruited from Australia, the Bahamas, Barbados, Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Jamaica, Kenya, Nigeria, Norway, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The study is collecting datatypes to study variation in care and treatment of advanced prostate cancer across countries and across academic, community-based, and government practices with a focus on clinical outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, epidemiologic data, biologic subtypes, and clinician questionnaires.

RESULTS

Through July 2022, 2,682 eligible patients were enrolled in 11 of 12 active countries. Sixty-six percent of patients have mHSPC, and 34% have CRPC. On the basis of self-report, 11% of patients are Black and 9% are Hispanic. Five Veterans Affairs Medical Centers are enrolling patients. Globally, 23% of patients report being veterans of military service.

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge, this is the first international cohort of people newly diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer designed to describe variations in patient management, experiences, and outcomes. IRONMAN aims to identify optimal treatment sequences to improve survival, understand patient-reported outcomes, and explore novel biomarkers to understand treatment resistance mechanisms. Insights from IRONMAN will inform and guide future clinical management of people with mHSPC and CRPC. This cohort study will provide real-world evidence to facilitate a better understanding of the survivorship of people with advanced prostate cancer.

Acute kidney injury following cardiopulmonary bypass in Jamaica

Objectives

The study objectives were to describe the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of acute kidney injury after cardiopulmonary bypass in Jamaica.

Method

We performed a review of the medical records of adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) with no prior dialysis requirement undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass at the University Hospital of the West Indies, Mona, between January 1, 2016, and June 30, 2019. Demographic, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative data were abstracted. Acute kidney injury was defined using Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria. The primary outcomes were acute kidney injury incidence and all-cause 30-day mortality. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional analyses were used to examine the association between the acute kidney injury risk factors and the primary outcome.

Results

Data for 210 patients (58% men, mean age 58.1 ± 12.9 years) were analyzed. Acute kidney injury occurred in 80 patients (38.1%), 44% with Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes I, 33% with Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes II, and 24% with Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes III. From multivariable logistic regression models, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (odds ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.39 per unit), bypass time (odds ratio, 1.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-2.67 per hour), perioperative red cell transfusion (odds ratio, 3.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-6.76), and postoperative neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-2.68 per 10-unit difference) were positively associated with acute kidney injury. Acute kidney injury resulted in greater median hospital stay (18 vs 11 days, P < .001) and intensive care unit stay (5 vs 3 days, P < .001), and an 8-fold increase in 30-day mortality (hazard ratio, 8.15; 95% confidence interval, 2.76-24.06, P < .001).

Conclusions

Acute kidney injury after cardiopulmonary bypass surgery occurs frequently in Jamaica and results in poor short-term outcomes. Further studies coupled with quality interventions to reduce the mortality of those with acute kidney injury are needed in the Caribbean.

The Impact of Nutrition-Based Interventions on Nutritional Status and Metabolic Health in Small Island Developing States: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis

Small island developing states (SIDS) have a high burden of nutrition-related disease associated with nutrient-poor, energy-dense diets. In response to these issues, we assessed the effectiveness of nutrition-based interventions on nutritional status (under-nutrition) and metabolic health (over-nutrition) among persons in SIDS. We included SIDS-based nutrition studies with change in nutrition status (e.g., markers of anaemia) or metabolic status (e.g., markers of glycaemia) as outcomes. The PRISMA framework was applied and MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, OARE library, Web of Science, Scopus, ASSIA, EconLit, AGORA, AGRICOLA, AGRIS, WHO-EMRO, and LILACS were searched (2000−2020). Cochrane risk of bias (ROB) and Cochrane ROBINS-I tools assessed ROB for randomised and non-randomised studies, respectively. PROSPERO registration (CRD42021236396) was undertaken. We included 50 eligible interventions, involving 37,591 participants: 14 trials reported on nutritional status, 36 on metabolic health. Effective interventions, evaluated at the individual level, took a multifaceted approach for metabolic outcomes; while nutrition outcomes utilised supplements. Most intervention types were suitable for issues related to ‘over’ nutrition versus ‘under’ nutrition. Twenty-six studies (nutrition status (six); metabolic health (twenty)) were effective (p < 0.05). With the current rise of nutrition-related public health challenges, there is a need for further development and evaluation of these and related interventions at the population level.

Mortality in People with Type 2 Diabetes Following SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Population Level Analysis of Potential Risk Factors

INTRODUCTION

Research is ongoing to increase our understanding of how much a previous diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) affects someone's risk of becoming seriously unwell following a COVID-19 infection. In this study we set out to determine the relative likelihood of death following COVID-19 infection in people with T2DM when compared to those without T2DM. This was conducted as an urban population study and based in the UK.

METHODS

Analysis of electronic health record data was performed relating to people living in the Greater Manchester conurbation (population 2.82 million) who had a recorded diagnosis of T2DM and subsequent COVID-19 confirmed infection. Each individual with T2DM (n = 13,807) was matched with three COVID-19-infected non-diabetes controls (n = 39,583). Data were extracted from the Greater Manchester Care Record (GMCR) database for the period 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2021. Social disadvantage was assessed through Townsend scores. Death rates were compared in people with T2DM to their respective non-diabetes controls; potential predictive factors influencing the relative likelihood of admission were ascertained using univariable and multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

For individuals with T2DM, their mortality rate after a COVID-19 positive test was 7.7% vs 6.0% in matched controls; the relative risk (RR) of death was 1.28. From univariate analysis performed within the group of individuals with T2DM, the likelihood of death following a COVID-19 recorded infection was lower in people taking metformin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) or a glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonist. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and hypertension were associated with increased mortality and had odds ratios of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.96-0.97) and 1.92 (95% confidence interval 1.68-2.20), respectively. Likelihood of death following a COVID-19 infection was also higher in those people with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or severe enduring mental illness but not with asthma, and in people taking aspirin/clopidogrel/insulin. Smoking in people with T2DM significantly increased mortality rate (odds ratio of 1.46; 95% confidence interval 1.29-1.65). In a combined analysis of patients with T2DM and controls, multiple regression modelling indicated that the factors independently relating to a higher likelihood of death (accounting for 26% of variance) were T2DM, age, male gender and social deprivation (higher Townsend score).

CONCLUSION

Following confirmed infection with COVID-19 a number of factors are associated with mortality in individuals with T2DM. Prescription of metformin, SGLT2is or GLP-1 agonists and non-smoking status appeared to be associated with a reduced the risk of death for people with T2DM. Age, male sex and social disadvantage are associated with an increased risk of death.

The Risk Factors Potentially Influencing Hospital Admission in People with Diabetes, Following SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Population-Level Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Since early 2020 the whole world has been challenged by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the associated global pandemic (Covid-19). People with diabetes are particularly at high risk of becoming seriously unwell after contracting this virus.

METHODS

This population-based study included people living in the Greater Manchester conurbation who had a recorded diagnosis of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and subsequent Covid-19 infection. Each individual with T1DM (n = 862) or T2DM (n = 13,225) was matched with three Covid-19-infected non-diabetes controls.

RESULTS

For individuals with T1DM, hospital admission rate in the first 28 days after a positive Covid-19 test was 10% vs 4.7% in age/gender-matched controls [relative risk (RR) 2.1]. For individuals with T2DM, hospital admission rate after a positive Covid-19 test was 16.3% vs 11.6% in age/gender-matched controls (RR 1.4). The average Townsend score was higher in T2DM (1.8) vs matched controls (0.4), with a higher proportion of people with T2DM observed in the top two quintiles of greatest disadvantage (p < 0.001). For Covid-19-infected individuals with T1DM, factors influencing admission likelihood included age, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, HbA1c, low HDL-cholesterol, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and being of African/mixed ethnicity. In Covid-19-infected individuals with T2DM, factors related to a higher admission rate included age, Townsend index, comorbidity with COPD/asthma and severe mental illness (SMI), lower eGFR. Metformin prescription lowered the likelihood. For multivariate analysis in combined individuals with T2DM/controls, factors relating to higher likelihood of admission were having T2DM/age/male gender/diagnosed COPD/diagnosed hypertension/social deprivation (higher Townsend index) and non-white ethnicity (all groups).

CONCLUSION

In a UK population we have confirmed a significantly higher likelihood of admission in people with diabetes following Covid-19 infection. A number of factors mediate that increased likelihood of hospital admission. For T2DM, the majority of factors related to increased admission rate are common to the general population but more prevalent in T2DM. There was a protective effect of metformin in people with T2DM.

The change in glycaemic control immediately after COVID-19 vaccination in people with type 1 diabetes

AIMS

Evidence suggests that some people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) experience temporary instability of blood glucose (BG) levels after COVID-19 vaccination. We aimed to assess this objectively.

METHODS

We examined the interstitial glucose profile of 97 consecutive adults (age ≥ 18 years) with T1DM using the FreeStyle Libre^® flash glucose monitor in the periods immediately before and after their first COVID-19 vaccination. The primary outcome measure was percentage (%) interstitial glucose readings within the target range 3.9-10 mmol/L for 7 days prior to the vaccination and the 7 days after the vaccination. Data are mean ± standard error.

RESULTS

There was a significant decrease in the % interstitial glucose on target (3.9-10.0) for the 7 days following vaccination (mean 52.2% ± 2.0%) versus pre-COVID-19 vaccination (mean 55.0% ± 2.0%) (p = 0.030). 58% of individuals with T1DM showed a reduction in the 'time in target range' in the week after vaccination. 30% showed a decrease of time within the target range of over 10%, and 10% showed a decrease in time within target range of over 20%. The change in interstitial glucose proportion on target in the week following vaccination was most pronounced for people taking metformin/dapagliflozin + basal bolus insulin (change -7.6%) and for people with HbA_1c below the median (change -5.7%).

CONCLUSION

In T1DM, we have shown that initial COVID-19 vaccination can cause temporary perturbation of interstitial glucose, with this effect more pronounced in people talking oral hypoglycaemic medication plus insulin, and when HbA_1c is lower.

Assessing the Causal Role of Sleep Traits on Glycated Hemoglobin: A Mendelian Randomization Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of sleep traits on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study triangulated evidence across multivariable regression (MVR) and one- (1SMR) and two-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) including sensitivity analyses on the effects of five self-reported sleep traits (i.e., insomnia symptoms [difficulty initiating or maintaining sleep], sleep duration, daytime sleepiness, napping, and chronotype) on HbA1c (in SD units) in adults of European ancestry from the UK Biobank (for MVR and 1SMR analyses) (n = 336,999; mean [SD] age 57 [8] years; 54% female) and in the genome-wide association studies from the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-Related Traits Consortium (MAGIC) (for 2SMR analysis) (n = 46,368; 53 [11] years; 52% female).

RESULTS

Across MVR, 1SMR, 2SMR, and their sensitivity analyses, we found a higher frequency of insomnia symptoms (usually vs. sometimes or rarely/never) was associated with higher HbA1c (MVR 0.05 SD units [95% CI 0.04-0.06]; 1SMR 0.52 [0.42-0.63]; 2SMR 0.24 [0.11-0.36]). Associations remained, but point estimates were somewhat attenuated after excluding participants with diabetes. For other sleep traits, there was less consistency across methods, with some but not all providing evidence of an effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that frequent insomnia symptoms cause higher HbA1c levels and, by implication, that insomnia has a causal role in type 2 diabetes. These findings could have important implications for developing and evaluating strategies that improve sleep habits to reduce hyperglycemia and prevent diabetes.

Early protein energy malnutrition impacts life-long developmental trajectories of the sources of EEG rhythmic activity

Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM) has lifelong consequences on brain development and cognitive function. We studied the lifelong developmental trajectories of resting-state EEG source activity in 66 individuals with histories of Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM) limited to the first year of life and in 83 matched classmate controls (CON) who are all participants of the 49 years longitudinal Barbados Nutrition Study (BNS). qEEGt source z-spectra measured deviation from normative values of EEG rhythmic activity sources at 5-11 years of age and 40 years later at 45-51 years of age. The PEM group showed qEEGt abnormalities in childhood, including a developmental delay in alpha rhythm maturation and an insufficient decrease in beta activity. These profiles may be correlated with accelerated cognitive decline.

Vitamin D Deficiency at Diagnosis Increases All-Cause and Prostate Cancer-specific Mortality in Jamaican Men

Background

25 hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and serum calcium have been associated with incident prostate cancer (PCa). However, there is limited data on whether these metabolites predict survival in men of African descent, a population disproportionately affected by PCa. We studied the relationship of 25(OH)D at PCa diagnosis with all-cause and cancer-specific mortality among Jamaican men and examined whether serum calcium modified any associations.

Methods

Serum 25(OH)D from 152 Jamaican men with incident PCa within the Prostate Cancer Risk Evaluation (PROSCARE) study were re-evaluated approximately 11 years after enrollment. 25(OH)D analyses were stratified using the using Holick criteria. PCa-specific and all-cause mortality were examined in Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox regression models adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), smoking and Gleason score. Restricted cubic splines evaluated nonlinear associations. Serum calcium was assessed as an effect modifier of the association between 25(OH)D and mortality.

Results

Of cases with available 25(OH)D, 64 men with PCa survived, 38 deaths were PCa specific and 36 died of other causes. At baseline, 9.9% of cases were vitamin D deficient and 61.2% were vitamin D sufficient. Compared to 25(OH)D sufficient men, those with 25(OH)D <20.0 ng/mL concentrations were associated with higher PCa-specific mortality (adjusted HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.68, 14.63, P = .004) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 2.40; 95%CI, 1.33, 4. 32, P = .003). Serum calcium was not associated with survival and did not modify any associations with 25(OH)D.

Conclusions

25(OH)D deficiency at PCa diagnosis predicted decreased survival for overall and PCa-specific cancer in Caribbean men of African ancestry.

Heterogeneity in head and neck cancer incidence among black populations from Africa, the Caribbean and the USA: Analysis of cancer registry data by the AC3

BACKGROUND

Africa and the Caribbean are projected to have greater increases in Head and neck cancer (HNC) burden in comparison to North America and Europe. The knowledge needed to reinforce prevention in these populations is limited. We compared for the first time, incidence rates of HNC in black populations from African, the Caribbean and USA.

METHODS

Annual age-standardized incidence rates (IR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) per 100,000 were calculated for 2013-2015 using population-based cancer registry data for 14,911 HNC cases from the Caribbean (Barbados, Guadeloupe, Trinidad & Tobago, N = 443), Africa (Kenya, Nigeria, N = 772) and the United States (SEER, Florida, N = 13,696). We compared rates by sub-sites and sex among countries using data from registries with high quality and completeness.

RESULTS

In 2013-2015, compared to other countries, HNC incidence was highest among SEER states (IR: 18.2, 95%CI = 17.6-18.8) among men, and highest in Kenya (IR: 7.5, 95%CI = 6.3-8.7) among women. Nasopharyngeal cancer IR was higher in Kenya for men (IR: 3.1, 95%CI = 2.5-3.7) and women (IR: 1.5, 95%CI = 1.0-1.9). Female oral cavity cancer was also notably higher in Kenya (IR = 3.9, 95%CI = 3.0-4.9). Blacks from SEER states had higher incidence of laryngeal cancer (IR: 5.5, 95%CI = 5.2-5.8) compared to other countries and even Florida blacks (IR: 4.4, 95%CI = 3.9-5.0).

CONCLUSION

We found heterogeneity in IRs for HNC among these diverse black populations; notably, Kenya which had distinctively higher incidence of nasopharyngeal and female oral cavity cancer. Targeted etiological investigations are warranted considering the low consumption of tobacco and alcohol among Kenyan women. Overall, our findings suggest that behavioral and environmental factors are more important determinants of HNC than race.

Longitudinal clinical trajectory analysis of individuals before and after diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) indicates that vascular problems start early

INTRODUCTION

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) frequently associates with increasing multi-morbidity/treatment complexity. Some headway has been made to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors for T2DM. However, longitudinal clinical histories of individuals both before and after diagnosis of T2DM are likely to provide additional insight into both diabetes aetiology/further complex trajectory of multi-morbidity.

METHODS

This study utilised diabetes patients/controls enrolled in the DARE (Diabetes Alliance for Research in England) study where pre- and post-T2DM diagnosis longitudinal data was available for trajectory analysis. Longitudinal data of 281 individuals (T2DM n = 237 vs matched non-T2DM controls n = 44) were extracted, checked for errors and logical inconsistencies and then subjected to Trajectory Analysis over a period of up to 70 years based on calculations of the proportions of most prominent clinical conditions for each year.

RESULTS

For individuals who eventually had a diagnosis of T2DM made, a number of clinical phenotypes were seen to increase consistently in the years leading up to diagnosis of T2DM. Of these documented phenotypes, the most striking were diagnosed hypertension (more than in the control group) and asthma. This trajectory over time was much less dramatic in the matched control group. Immediately prior to T2DM diagnosis, a greater indication of ischaemic heart disease proportions was observed. Post-T2DM diagnosis, the proportions of T2DM patients exhibiting hypertension and infection continued to climb rapidly before plateauing. Ischaemic heart disease continued to increase in this group as well as retinopathy, impaired renal function and heart failure.

CONCLUSION

These observations provide an intriguing and novel insight into the onset and natural progression of T2DM. They suggest an early phase of potentially related disease activity well before any clinical diagnosis of diabetes is made. Further studies on a larger cohort of DARE patients are underway to explore the utility of establishing predictive risk scores.

Mortality in 98 type 1 diabetes mellitus and type 2 diabetes mellitus: Foot ulcer location is an independent risk determinant

INTRODUCTION

We previously demonstrated in both a longitudinal study and in meta-analysis (pooled relative-risk RR, 2.45) that all-cause mortality is significantly higher in people with diabetes foot ulceration (DFU) than with those without a foot ulcer. In this prospective study, we looked at the factors linked to mortality after presentation to podiatry with DFU.

METHODS

Ninety-eight individuals recruited consecutively from the Salford Royal Hospital Multidisciplinary Foot Clinic in Spring 2016 were followed up for up to 48 months. Data concerning health outcomes were extracted from the electronic patient record (EPR).

RESULTS

Seventeen people (17) had type 1 diabetes mellitus, and 81 had type 2 diabetes mellitus. Thirty-one were women. The mean age (range) was 63.6 (28-90) years with maximum diabetes duration 45 years. Mean HbA1c was 72 (95% CI: 67-77) mmol/mol; 97% had neuropathy (International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF) monofilament); 62% had vascular insufficiency (Doppler studies); 69% of ulcers were forefoot, and 23% of ulcers were hind foot in location. Forty of 98 (40%) patients died in follow-up with 27% of death certificates including sepsis (not foot-related) and 35% renal failure as cause of death. Multivariate regression analysis indicated a 6.3 (95% CI: 3.9-8.1) fold increased risk of death with hind foot ulcer, independent of age/BMI/gender/HbA1c/eGFR/total cholesterol level.

CONCLUSION

This prospective study has indicated a very high long-term mortality rate in individuals with DFU, greater for those with a hind foot ulcer and shown a close relation between risk of sepsis/renal failure and DFU mortality, highlighting again the importance of addressing all risk factors as soon as people present with a foot ulcer.

Shift work is associated with positive COVID-19 status in hospitalised patients

INTRODUCTION

Shift work is associated with lung disease and infections. We therefore investigated the impact of shift work on significant COVID-19 illness.

METHODS

501 000 UK Biobank participants were linked to secondary care SARS-CoV-2 PCR results from Public Health England. Healthcare worker occupational testing and those without an occupational history were excluded from analysis.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression (age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation index) revealed that irregular shift work (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.92 to 3.05), permanent shift work (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.19), day shift work (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.55 to 2.6), irregular night shift work (OR 3.04, 95% CI 2.37 to 3.9) and permanent night shift work (OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.67 to 3.7) were all associated with positive COVID-19 tests compared with participants that did not perform shift work. This relationship persisted after adding sleep duration, chronotype, premorbid disease, body mass index, alcohol and smoking to the model. The effects of workplace were controlled for in three ways: (1) by adding in work factors (proximity to a colleague combined with estimated disease exposure) to the multivariate model or (2) comparing participants within each job sector (non-essential, essential and healthcare) and (3) comparing shift work and non-shift working colleagues. In all cases, shift work was significantly associated with COVID-19. In 2017, 120 307 UK Biobank participants had their occupational history reprofiled. Using this updated occupational data shift work remained associated with COVID-19 (OR 4.48 (95% CI 1.8 to 11.18).

CONCLUSIONS

Shift work is associated with a higher likelihood of in-hospital COVID-19 positivity. This risk could potentially be mitigated via additional workplace precautions or vaccination.

Personal protective equipment (PPE) and infection among healthcare workers - What is the evidence?

BACKGROUND

The worldwide outbreak of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has already put healthcare workers (HCWs) at a high risk of infection. The question of how to give HCWs the best protection against infection is a priority.

METHODS

We searched systematic reviews and original studies in Medline (via Ovid) and Chinese Wan Fang digital database from inception to May, 2020, using terms 'coronavirus', 'health personnel', and 'personal protective equipment' to find evidence about the use of full-body PPEs and other PPEs by HCW exposed highly infectious diseases.

RESULTS

Covering more of the body could provide better protection for HCWs. Of importance, it is not just the provision of PPE but the skills in donning and doffing of PPE that are important, this being a key time for potential transmission of pathogen to the HCW and in due time from them to others. In relation to face masks, the evidence indicates that a higher-level specification of face masks and respirators (such as N95) seems to be essential to protect HCWs from coronavirus infection. In community setting, the use of masks in the case of well individuals could be beneficial. Evidence specifically around PPE and protection from the COVID-19 virus is limited.

CONCLUSION

Covering more of the body, and a higher-level specification of masks and respirators could provide better protection for HCWs. Community mask usecould be beneficial. High quality studies still need to examine the protection of PPE against COVID-19.

The treatment rate of erectile dysfunction (ED) in younger men with type 2 diabetes is up to four times higher than the equivalent non-diabetes population

INTRODUCTION

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is common in older age and in diabetes mellitus (DM). Phosphodiesterase type 5-inhibitors (PDE5-is) are the first-line for ED. We investigated how the type of diabetes and age of males affect the PDE5-i use in the primary care setting.

METHODS

From 2018 to 2019, the general practice level quantity of all PDE5-i agents was taken from the general practice (GP) Prescribing Dataset in England. The variation in outcomes across practices was examined across one year, and for the same practice against the previous year.

RESULTS

We included 5761 larger practices supporting 25.8 million men of whom 4.2 million ≥65 years old. Of these, 1.4 million had T2DM, with 0.8 million of these >65. About 137 000 people had T1DM. About 28.8 million tablets of PDE5-i were prescribed within the 12 months (2018-2019) period in 3.7 million prescriptions (7.7 tablets/prescription), at total costs of £15.8 million (£0.55/tablet). The NHS ED limit of one tablet/user/wk suggests that 540 000 males are being prescribed a PDE5-i at a cost of £29/y each. With approximately 30 000 GPs practising, this is equivalent to one GP providing 2.5 prescriptions/wk to overall 18 males. There was a 3x variation between the highest decile of practices (2.6 tablets/male/y) and lowest decile (0.96 tablets/male/y). The statistical model captured 14% of this variation and showed that T1DM males were the largest users, while men age <65 with T2DM were being prescribed four times as much as non-DM. Those T2DM >65 were prescribed 80% of the non-DM amount.

CONCLUSION

There is a wide variation in the use of PDE5-is. With only 14% variance capture, other factors including wide variation in patient awareness, prescribing rules of local health providers, and recognition of the importance of male sexual health by GP prescribers might have a significant impact.

A phased approach to unlocking during the COVID-19 pandemic-Lessons from trend analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to radical political control of social behaviour. The purpose of this paper is to explore data trends from the pandemic regarding infection rates/policy impact, and draw learning points for informing the unlocking process.

METHODS

The daily published cases in England in each of 149 Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA) areas were converted to Average Daily Infection Rate (ADIR), an R-value - the number of further people infected by one infected person during their infectious phase with Rate of Change of Infection Rate (RCIR) also calculated. Stepwise regression was carried out to see what local factors could be linked to differences in local infection rates FINDINGS: By the 19th April 2020 the infection R has fallen from 2.8 on 23rd March before the lockdown and has stabilised at about 0.8, sufficient for suppression. However there remain significant variations between England regions. Regression analysis across UTLAs found that the only factor relating to reduction in ADIR was the historic number of confirmed number infection/000 population, There is however wide variation between Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) areas. Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be 150 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 26.8% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunityExtrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be 150 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 26.8% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity.

INTERPRETATION

Analysis of current case data using infectious ratio has provided novel insight into the current national state and can be used to make better-informed decisions about future management of restricted social behaviour and movement.

Controlling antibiotic usage-A national analysis of General Practitioner/Family Doctor practices links overall antibiotic levels to demography, geography, comorbidity factors with local discretionary prescribing choices

INTRODUCTION

Ecological studies show association between antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and inappropriate oral antibiotics use. Moderating antibiotic prescribing requires an understanding of all drivers of local prescribing. The aim was to quantify how much is determined by external factors compared with discretionary clinical choices.

METHODS

Oral antibiotic usage taken from England General Practitioner/Family Doctor practice prescribing data was aggregated using WHO/ATC defined daily doses (DDDs). The average annual antibiotic daily prescribing rate (AAADPR) in each practice was the total DDD of oral antibiotics divided by registered population and 365. The AAADPR of English practices in 2017_18 was linked by regression to factors including demographics, geography, medical comorbidities, clinical performance, patient satisfaction, medical workforce characteristics and prescribing selection. The regression coefficients for modifiable prescribing selection factors were applied to the difference between the median and top decile practice values to establish overall reduction opportunities through changing prescribing behaviour.

RESULTS

Twenty five factors accounted for 58% of the AAADPR variation in 5889 practices supporting 49.8 million patients. Non-modifiable factors linked increased AAADPR to more northerly location, higher prevalence of diabetes, COPD, CHD, and asthma; higher white ethnicity; higher patient satisfaction and lower population density. Modifiable behaviour accounted for 11% of the variation in AAADPR, with increases associated with a wider range of antibiotics, higher proportion taken as liquids, higher doses in each prescription, lower guideline compliance, lower targeted antibiotics, lower spend/dose, and less seasonal variation. If all practices achieved the level of modifiable factors of the top decile, this model suggests that overall AAADPR could reduce by 31%.

CONCLUSION

Such analysis is associative and does not infer causation. However, demographics, location, medical condition of the population, and prescribing selection are drivers of overall antibiotic prescribing. This analysis provides benchmarks for both non-modifiable and modifiable factors against which practices could evaluate their opportunities to reduce antibiotic prescribing.

Central adiposity at diagnosis may reduce prostate cancer-specific mortality in African-Caribbean men with prostate cancer: 10-year follow-up of participants in a case-control study

PURPOSE

General and central adiposity are associated with the risk of developing prostate cancer (PCa), but the role of these exposures on PCa survival among men of African ancestry are less studied. This study aimed to investigate the association of anthropometry at diagnosis with all-cause and PCa-specific mortality and evaluate whether androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) modulated this risk.

METHODS

Associations between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) at diagnosis and mortality were examined in 242 men with newly diagnosed PCa enrolled between 2005 and 2007 and re-evaluated 10.9 years later. Multi-variable Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine associations of body size variables (using standard WHO cut-points and as continuous variables) with mortality, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, Gleason score, smoking, diabetes, primary treatment, and ADT therapy.

RESULTS

A total of 139 deaths (all-cause mortality 6.98/100 person-years) occurred (PCa-specific deaths, 56; other causes, 66; causes unknown, 17). In multi-variable analysis BMI, WC and WHR categories at diagnosis were not associated with all-cause mortality even after adjusting for ADT. While WHR (but not BMI or WC) when included as a continuous variable predicted lower PCa-specific mortality (multi-variable adjusted WHR per 0.1 difference: HR, 0.50; 95%CI 0.28, 0.93), the effect disappeared with ADT covariance and excluding deaths within the first 2 years.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that central adiposity as measured by WHR may improve long-term survival among men of African ancestry. Metabolic studies to understand the mechanism for this association are needed.

Foot ulceration and its association with mortality in diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Diabetic foot ulcers portend an almost twofold increase in all-cause mortality compared with diabetes on its own.

AIM

To investigate the association between diabetic foot ulcers and risk of death.

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis of all observational studies investigating the association between diabetic foot ulcers and all-cause mortality. Risk ratios and risk differences were pooled in a random-effects model. The I² statistic was used to quantify heterogeneity between studies.

RESULTS

Altogether, we identified 11 studies that reported 84 131 deaths from any cause in 446 916 participants with diabetes during a total of 643 499 person-years of follow-up. The crude event rate for all-cause mortality in individuals with diabetes who did not develop foot ulceration was 22% lower at 181.5 deaths (per 1000 person-years) than in those who developed foot ulcers (230.8 per 1000 person-years). Diabetic foot ulceration was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (pooled relative risk 2.45, 95% CI 1.85-2.85). We did not observe any tangible differences in risk of all-cause mortality from diagnosis in studies reporting a mean duration of follow-up of ≤3 years (relative risk 2.43, 95% CI 2.27-2.61) or >3 years (relative risk 2.26, 95% CI 2.13-2.40) years. Funnel plot inspection revealed no significant publication bias among studies included in this meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows an excess rate of all-cause mortality in people with diabetic foot ulceration when compared to those without foot ulceration. It is imperative that early interventions to prevent foot ulceration and modify cardiovascular disease risk factors are put in place to reduce excess mortality.

The circadian clock protein REVERBα inhibits pulmonary fibrosis development

Pulmonary inflammatory responses lie under circadian control; however, the importance of circadian mechanisms in the underlying fibrotic phenotype is not understood. Here, we identify a striking change to these mechanisms resulting in a gain of amplitude and lack of synchrony within pulmonary fibrotic tissue. These changes result from an infiltration of mesenchymal cells, an important cell type in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis. Mutation of the core clock protein REVERBα in these cells exacerbated the development of bleomycin-induced fibrosis, whereas mutation of REVERBα in club or myeloid cells had no effect on the bleomycin phenotype. Knockdown of REVERBα revealed regulation of the little-understood transcription factor TBPL1. Both REVERBα and TBPL1 altered integrinβ1 focal-adhesion formation, resulting in increased myofibroblast activation. The translational importance of our findings was established through analysis of 2 human cohorts. In the UK Biobank, circadian strain markers (sleep length, chronotype, and shift work) are associated with pulmonary fibrosis, making them risk factors. In a separate cohort, REVERBα expression was increased in human idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) lung tissue. Pharmacological targeting of REVERBα inhibited myofibroblast activation in IPF fibroblasts and collagen secretion in organotypic cultures from IPF patients, thus suggesting that targeting of REVERBα could be a viable therapeutic approach.

Neighborhood crime, disorder and substance use in the Caribbean context: Jamaica National Drug Use Prevalence Survey 2016

The purpose of the study was to examine the role of objective and subjective measures of neighborhood crime and disorder on substance use among a nationally representative sample of 4525 Jamaicans aged 12–65 years. Log-Poisson models with generalized estimating equations were used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A test of interaction was used to determine presence of effect modification by sex. Approximately 39% of the study population reported past-month alcohol use; 10% past-month tobacco use; and 15% past-month marijuana use. In fully adjusted models, past-month alcohol and tobacco use were associated with perceived neighborhood disorder (p<0.05). The likelihood of alcohol use was 1.12 (95%CI:1.04, 1.20) times greater among participants who perceived higher neighborhood disorder. The likelihood of tobacco use was 1.22 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.46) times greater among participants who perceived higher neighborhood disorder. A significant test for interaction in adjusted models (P<0.2) suggested that the associations between substance use and perceived neighborhood disorder varied by sex. Examination of stratified models indicated that the role of perceived neighborhood disorder on alcohol and tobacco consumption varied among females, but not males. Females who perceived higher levels of neighborhood disorder had an increased likelihood of past-month alcohol and tobacco use (RRa:1.25 95%CI:1,07, 1.45; RRa:1.73 95%CI: 1.10, 2.67). Objective neighborhood crime measures were not associated with alcohol, tobacco, or marijuana use. The study findings provide evidence for the importance of considering subjective and objective neighborhood measures when examining relations with health outcome and demonstrate that perceptions of context and contextual exposures are not uniform across populations within neighborhoods. Interventions focused on building community trust and social cohesion (e.g. neighborhood community watch groups) and greening of blighted or abandoned spaces may help increase the sense of safety and order, reducing stress and maladaptive coping such as substance use.

Developing a foot ulcer risk model: what is needed to do this in a real-world primary care setting?

AIM

To determine how routinely collected data can inform a risk model to predict de novo foot ulcer presentation in the primary care setting.

METHODS

Data were available on 15 727 individuals without foot ulcers and 1125 individuals with new foot ulcers over a 12-year follow-up in UK primary care. We examined known risk factors and added putative risk factors in our logistic model.

RESULTS

People with foot ulcers were 4.2 years older (95% CI 3.1-5.2) than those without, and had higher HbA_1c % (mean 7.9 ± 1.9 vs 7.5 ± 1.7) / HbA_1c mmol/mol (63 ± 21 vs 59 ± 19) (p<0.0001) concentration [+0.45 (95% CI 0.33-0.56), creatinine level [+6.9 μmol/L (95% CI 4.1-9.8)] and Townsend score [+0.055 (95% CI 0.033-0.077)]. Absence of monofilament sensation was more common in people with foot ulcers (28% vs 21%; P<0.0001), as was absence of foot pulses (6.4% vs 4.8%; P=0.017). There was no difference between people with or without foot ulcers in smoking status, gender, history of stroke or foot deformity, although foot deformity was extremely rare (0.4% in people with foot ulcers, 0.6% in people without foot ulcers). Combining risk factors in a single logistic regression model gave modest predictive power, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.65 (95% CI 0.62-0.67). The prevalence of ulceration in the bottom decile of risk was 1.8% and in the top decile it was 13.4% (compared with an overall prevalence of 6.5%); thus, the presence of all six risk factors gave a relative risk of 7.4 for development of a foot ulcer over 12 years.

CONCLUSION

We have made some progress towards defining a variable set that can be used to create a foot ulcer prediction model. More accurate determination of foot deformity/pedal circulation in primary care may improve the predictive value of such a future risk model, as will identification of additional risk variables.

Genome-wide association analysis of self-reported daytime sleepiness identifies 42 loci that suggest biological subtypes

Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) affects 10-20% of the population and is associated with substantial functional deficits. Here, we identify 42 loci for self-reported daytime sleepiness in GWAS of 452,071 individuals from the UK Biobank, with enrichment for genes expressed in brain tissues and in neuronal transmission pathways. We confirm the aggregate effect of a genetic risk score of 42 SNPs on daytime sleepiness in independent Scandinavian cohorts and on other sleep disorders (restless legs syndrome, insomnia) and sleep traits (duration, chronotype, accelerometer-derived sleep efficiency and daytime naps or inactivity). However, individual daytime sleepiness signals vary in their associations with objective short vs long sleep, and with markers of sleep continuity. The 42 sleepiness variants primarily cluster into two predominant composite biological subtypes - sleep propensity and sleep fragmentation. Shared genetic links are also seen with obesity, coronary heart disease, psychiatric diseases, cognitive traits and reproductive ageing.

Does rhythm matter in acute heart failure? An insight from the British Society for Heart Failure National Audit

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). The presence of AF is associated with adverse prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) but little is known about its impact in AHF.

Methods

Data were collected between April 2007 and March 2013 across 185 (> 95%) hospitals in England and Wales from patients with a primary death or a discharge diagnosis of AHF. We investigated the association between the presence of AF and all-cause mortality during the index hospital admission, at 30 days and 1 year post-discharge.

Results

Of 96,593 patients admitted with AHF, 44,642 (46%) were in sinus rhythm (SR) and 51,951 (54%) in AF. Patients with AF were older (mean age 79.8 (79.7–80) versus 74.7 (74.5–74.7) years; p < 0.001), than those in SR. In a multivariable analysis, AF was independently associated with mortality at all time points, in hospital (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.09–1.21, p < 0.0001), 30 days (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.08–1.19, p < 0.0001), and 1 year (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05–1.12, p < 0.0001). In subgroup analyses, AF was independently associated with worse 30-day outcome irrespective of sex, ventricular phenotype and in all age groups except in those aged between 55 and 74 years.

Conclusion

AF is independently associated with adverse prognosis in AHF during admission and up to 1 year post-discharge. As the clinical burden of concomitant AF and AHF increases, further refinement in the detection, treatment and prevention of AF-related complications may have a role in improving patient outcomes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00392-019-01463-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Genome-wide association study identifies genetic loci for self-reported habitual sleep duration supported by accelerometer-derived estimates

Sleep is an essential state of decreased activity and alertness but molecular factors regulating sleep duration remain unknown. Through genome-wide association analysis in 446,118 adults of European ancestry from the UK Biobank, we identify 78 loci for self-reported habitual sleep duration (p < 5 × 10⁻⁸; 43 loci at p < 6 × 10⁻⁹). Replication is observed for PAX8, VRK2, and FBXL12/UBL5/PIN1 loci in the CHARGE study (n = 47,180; p < 6.3 × 10⁻⁴), and 55 signals show sign-concordant effects. The 78 loci further associate with accelerometer-derived sleep duration, daytime inactivity, sleep efficiency and number of sleep bouts in secondary analysis (n = 85,499). Loci are enriched for pathways including striatum and subpallium development, mechanosensory response, dopamine binding, synaptic neurotransmission and plasticity, among others. Genetic correlation indicates shared links with anthropometric, cognitive, metabolic, and psychiatric traits and two-sample Mendelian randomization highlights a bidirectional causal link with schizophrenia. This work provides insights into the genetic basis for inter-individual variation in sleep duration implicating multiple biological pathways.

Sleep is essential for homeostasis and insufficient or excessive sleep are associated with adverse outcomes. Here, the authors perform GWAS for self-reported habitual sleep duration in adults, supported by accelerometer-derived measures, and identify genetic correlation with psychiatric and metabolic traits

Biological and clinical insights from genetics of insomnia symptoms

Insomnia is a common disorder linked with adverse long-term medical and psychiatric outcomes. The underlying pathophysiological processes and causal relationships of insomnia with disease are poorly understood. Here we identified 57 loci for self-reported insomnia symptoms in the UK Biobank (n = 453,379) and confirmed their effects on self-reported insomnia symptoms in the HUNT Study (n = 14,923 cases and 47,610 controls), physician-diagnosed insomnia in the Partners Biobank (n = 2,217 cases and 14,240 controls), and accelerometer-derived measures of sleep efficiency and sleep duration in the UK Biobank (n = 83,726). Our results suggest enrichment of genes involved in ubiquitin-mediated proteolysis and of genes expressed in multiple brain regions, skeletal muscle, and adrenal glands. Evidence of shared genetic factors was found between frequent insomnia symptoms and restless legs syndrome, aging, and cardiometabolic, behavioral, psychiatric, and reproductive traits. Evidence was found for a possible causal link between insomnia symptoms and coronary artery disease, depressive symptoms, and subjective well-being.

Real-world practice level data analysis confirms link between variability within Blood Glucose Monitoring Strip (BGMS) and glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in Type 1 Diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Our aim was to quantify the impact of Blood Glucose Monitoring Strips variability (BGMSV) at GP practice level on the variability of reported glycated haemoglobin (HbA1cV) levels.

METHODS

Overall GP Practice BGMSV and HbA1cV were calculated from the quantity of main types of BGMS being prescribed combined with the published accuracy, as % results within ±% bands from reference value for the selected strip type. The regression coefficient between the BGMSV and HbA1cV was calculated. To allow for the aggregation of estimated three tests/day over 13 weeks (ie, 300 samples) of actual Blood Glucose (BG) values up to the HbA1c, we multiplied HbA1cV coefficient by √300 to estimate an empirical value for impact of BGMSV on BGV.

RESULTS

Four thousand five hundred and twenty-four practice years with 159 700 T1DM patient years where accuracy data were available for more than 80% of strips prescribed were included, with overall BGMSV 6.5% and HbA1c mean of 66.9 mmol/mol (8.3%) with variability of 13 mmol/mol equal to 19% of the mean. At a GP practice level, BGMSV and HbA1cV as % of mean HbA1c (in other words, the spread of HbA1c) were closely related with a regression coefficient of 0.176, P < 0.001. Thus, greater variability in the BGMS at a GP practice level resulted in a greater spread of HbA1C readings in T1DM patients. Applying this factor for BGMS to the national ISO accepted standard where 95% results must be ≤±15% from reference, revealed that for BG, 95% results would be ≤±45% from the reference value. Thus, the variation in BG is three times that of the BGMS. For a patient with BG target @10 mmol/L using the worst performing ISO standard strips, on 1/20 occasions (average 1/week) actual blood glucose value could be >±4.5 mmol/L from target, compared with the best performing BGMS with BG >±2.2 mmol/L from reference on 1/20 occasions.

CONCLUSION

Use of more variable/less accurate BGMS is associated both theoretically and in practice with a larger variability in measured BG and HbA1c, with implications for patient confidence in their day-to-day monitoring experience.

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors, the latest residents on the block: Impact on glycaemic control at a general practice level in England

AIMS

To determine, using published general practice-level data, how differences in Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prescribing patterns relate to glycaemic target achievement levels.

METHODS

Multiple linear regression modelling was used to link practice characteristics and defined daily dose (DDD) of different classes of medication in 2015/2016 and changes between that year and the year 2014/2015 in medication to proportion of patients achieving target glycaemic control (glycated haemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] ≤58 mmol/mol [7.5%]) and proportion of patients at high glycaemic risk (HbA1c >86 mmol/mol [10.0%]) for practices in the National Diabetes Audit with >100 people with T2DM on their register.

RESULTS

Overall, HbA1c outcomes were not different between the years studied. Although, in percentage terms, most practices increased their use of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors (96%), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors (76%) and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) analogues (53%), there was wide variation in the use of older and newer therapies. For example, 12% of practices used >200% of the national average for some newer agents. In cross-sectional analysis, greater prescribing of metformin and analogue insulin were associated with a higher proportion of patients achieving HbA1c ≤58 mmol/mol; the use of SGLT2 inhibitors and metformin was associated with a reduced proportion of patients with HbA1c >86 mol/mol; otherwise associations for sulphonylureas, GLP-1 analogues, SGLT2 inhibitors and DPP-4 inhibitors were neutral or negative. In year-on-year analysis there was ongoing deterioration in glycaemic control, which was offset to some extent by increased use of SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 analogues, which were associated with a greater proportion of patients achieving HbA1c levels ≤58 mmol/mol and a smaller proportion of patients with HbA1c levels >86 mmol/mol. SGLT2 inhibitor prescribing was associated with significantly greater improvements than those found for GLP-1 analogues.

CONCLUSION

Greater use of newer agents was associated with improvement in glycaemic outcomes but was not sufficient to compensate for the prevailing decline. This may reflect wide variability in the prescribing of newer agents. We found that SGLT inhibitors may be superior to other oral agents in relation to HbA1c outcome. Serious consideration should be given to their use.

Usual blood pressure, atrial fibrillation and vascular risk: evidence from 4.3 million adults

Background: Although elevated blood pressure is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), it is unclear if this association varies by individual characteristics. Furthermore, the associations between AF and a range of different vascular events are yet to be reliably quantified.

Methods: Using linked electronic health records, we examined the time to first diagnosis of AF and time to first diagnosis of nine vascular events in a cohort of 4.3 million adults, aged 30 to 90 years, in the UK.

Results: A 20-mmHg higher usual systolic blood pressure was associated with a higher risk of AF [hazard ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19, 1.22]. The strength of the association declined with increasing age, from an HR of 1.91 (CI 1.75, 2.09) at age 30-40 to an HR of 1.01 (CI 0.97, 1.04) at age 80-90 years. AF without antithrombotic use at baseline was associated with a greater risk of any vascular event than AF with antithrombotic usage (P interaction < 0.0001). AF without baseline antithrombotic usage was associated with an increased risk of ischaemic heart disease (HR 2.52, CI 2.23, 2.84), heart failure (HR 3.80, CI 3.50, 4.12), ischaemic stroke (HR 2.72, CI 2.19, 3.38), unspecified stroke (HR 2.59, CI 2.25, 2.99), haemorrhagic stroke, chronic kidney disease, peripheral arterial disease and vascular dementia, but not aortic aneurysm.

Conclusions: The association between elevated blood pressure and AF attenuates with increasing age. AF without antithrombotic usage is associated with an increased risk of eight vascular events.

Night Shift Work, Genetic Risk, and Type 2 Diabetes in the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of past and current night shift work and genetic type 2 diabetes vulnerability on type 2 diabetes odds.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In the UK Biobank, we examined associations of current (N = 272,214) and lifetime (N = 70,480) night shift work exposure with type 2 diabetes risk (6,770 and 1,191 prevalent cases, respectively). For 180,704 and 44,141 unrelated participants of European ancestry (4,002 and 726 cases, respectively) with genetic data, we assessed whether shift work exposure modified the relationship between a genetic risk score (comprising 110 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) for type 2 diabetes and prevalent diabetes.

RESULTS

Compared with day workers, all current night shift workers were at higher multivariable-adjusted odds for type 2 diabetes (none or rare night shifts: odds ratio [OR] 1.15 [95% CI 1.05-1.26]; some nights: OR 1.18 [95% CI 1.05-1.32]; and usual nights: OR 1.44 [95% CI 1.19-1.73]), except current permanent night shift workers (OR 1.09 [95% CI 0.93-1.27]). Considering a person's lifetime work schedule and compared with never shift workers, working more night shifts per month was associated with higher type 2 diabetes odds (<3/month: OR 1.24 [95% CI 0.90-1.68]; 3-8/month: OR 1.11 [95% CI 0.90-1.37]; and >8/month: OR 1.36 [95% CI 1.14-1.62]; P_trend = 0.001). The association between genetic type 2 diabetes predisposition and type 2 diabetes odds was not modified by shift work exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that night shift work, especially rotating shift work including night shifts, is associated with higher type 2 diabetes odds and that the number of night shifts worked per month appears most relevant for type 2 diabetes odds. Also, shift work exposure does not modify genetic risk for type 2 diabetes, a novel finding that warrants replication.

Social deprivation modifies the association between incident foot ulceration and mortality in type 1 and type 2 diabetes: a longitudinal study of a primary-care cohort

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to determine whether social deprivation in the presence of diabetes is an independent predictor of developing a foot ulcer and separately of mortality.

METHODS

This was a primary-care-based retrospective analysis of 13,955 adults with type 1 (n = 1370) or type 2 (n = 12,585) diabetes after a median follow-up of 10.5 years. Demographic characteristics, indices of social deprivation and clinical variables were assessed at baseline. The primary outcomes were new foot ulceration (in those without a previous history of foot ulcers) and all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazard models were used to describe the associations among foot ulceration, social deprivation and mortality.

RESULTS

The mean age of the population was 69.4 (range: 16-89) years. The incidence of foot ulceration was greater in individuals with type 2 (8.6%) compared with type 1 diabetes (4.8%). Occurrence was similar by sex, but increased with age and deprivation index. Individuals in the highest quintile of deprivation were 77% more likely to develop a foot ulcer compared with those in the lowest quintile (OR 1.77 [95% CI 1.45, 2.14], p < 0.0001). Overall, 2946 (21.1%) deaths were recorded. Compared with individuals without a foot ulcer, the development of a foot ulcer was associated with a higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality rate (25.9% vs 14.0%), and a 72% (HR 1.72 [95% CI 1.56, 1.90], p < 0.001) increased risk of mortality in those with type 2 diabetes. Risk of death increased by 14% per quintile of deprivation in a univariable analysis (HR 1.14 [95% CI 1.10, 1.17]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, there was a 48% increased risk of mortality in individuals with a foot ulcer (HR 1.48 [95% CI 1.33, 1.66]) independent of the Townsend index score (HR 1.13 [95% CI 1.10, 1.17], per quintile), baseline age, sex, diabetes type, smoking status, hypertension, statin use, β-blocker use, metformin use, HbA_1c levels and insulin use.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study confirms the high mortality rate in individuals with diabetes-related foot ulcers. In addition, socioeconomic disadvantage was found to be an independent effect modifier, contributing to an increased burden of mortality in people with diabetes who develop foot ulceration. In light of this, and as diabetes service configurations are orientated for the next 5-10 years, modelling of foot ulceration risk needs to take socioeconomic disadvantage into account.

Sleep and cognitive performance: cross-sectional associations in the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

The relationship between insomnia symptoms and cognitive performance is unclear, particularly at the population level. We conducted the largest examination of this association to date through analysis of the UK Biobank, a large population-based sample of adults aged 40-69 years. We also sought to determine associations between cognitive performance and self-reported chronotype, sleep medication use and sleep duration.

METHODS

This cross-sectional, population-based study involved 477,529 participants, comprising 133,314 patients with frequent insomnia symptoms (age: 57.4 ± 7.7 years; 62.1% female) and 344,215 controls without insomnia symptoms (age: 56.1 ± 8.2 years; 52.0% female). Cognitive performance was assessed by a touchscreen test battery probing reasoning, basic reaction time, numeric memory, visual memory, and prospective memory. Adjusted models included relevant demographic, clinical, and sleep variables.

RESULTS

Frequent insomnia symptoms were associated with cognitive impairment in unadjusted models; however, these effects were reversed after full adjustment, leaving those with frequent insomnia symptoms showing statistically better cognitive performance over those without. Relative to intermediate chronotype, evening chronotype was associated with superior task performance, while morning chronotype was associated with the poorest performance. Sleep medication use and both long (>9 h) and short (<7 h) sleep durations were associated with impaired performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that after adjustment for potential confounding variables, frequent insomnia symptoms may be associated with a small statistical advantage, which is unlikely to be clinically meaningful, on simple neurocognitive tasks. Further work is required to examine the mechanistic underpinnings of an apparent evening chronotype advantage in cognitive performance and the impairment associated with morning chronotype, sleep medication use, and sleep duration extremes.

Social Disadvantage Is Associated With Lower Vitamin D Levels in Older People and There Is No Surrogate for Its Measurement

Introduction: There is increasing evidence concerning adverse health consequences of low vitamin D levels. We determined whether there is any surrogate for measuring vitamin D in people older than 70 years and the relation between index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and vitamin D levels. Methods: Blood samples from 241 patients were included in this analysis. Concurrent measurements for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), parathyroid hormone (PTH), and bone profile are reported. Results: The prevalence of total vitamin D insufficiency/deficiency (defined as total vitamin D <50 nmol/L) was 57.5% overall. Even for patients with vitamin D deficiency, a significant proportion had PTH, normal calcium, phosphate, and alkaline phosphatase levels. For patients with vitamin D <25 nmol/L, 62.7% had a PTH within reference range, 83.1% had normal serum-adjusted calcium, 80.6% had normal phosphate, and 85.1% had a normal serum alkaline phosphatase. With increasing quintiles of IMD, there was a 22% increased risk of vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency from quintiles 1 to 5, in age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression models (odds ratio [OR] = 1.22, 95% confidence interval [1.01, 1.47]; p = .034). Conclusion: No other parameter is currently adequate for screening for vitamin D deficiency in older people. A higher IMD is associated with lower vitamin D levels in older people.