1
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Giardina F, Gentine P, Konings AG, Seneviratne SI, Stocker BD. Diagnosing evapotranspiration responses to water deficit across biomes using deep learning. New Phytol 2023; 240:968-983. [PMID: 37621238 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Accepted: 07/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/26/2023]
Abstract
Accounting for water limitation is key to determining vegetation sensitivity to drought. Quantifying water limitation effects on evapotranspiration (ET) is challenged by the heterogeneity of vegetation types, climate zones and vertically along the rooting zone. Here, we train deep neural networks using flux measurements to study ET responses to progressing drought conditions. We determine a water stress factor (fET) that isolates ET reductions from effects of atmospheric aridity and other covarying drivers. We regress fET against the cumulative water deficit, which reveals the control of whole-column moisture availability. We find a variety of ET responses to water stress. Responses range from rapid declines of fET to 10% of its water-unlimited rate at several savannah and grassland sites, to mild fET reductions in most forests, despite substantial water deficits. Most sensitive responses are found at the most arid and warm sites. A combination of regulation of stomatal and hydraulic conductance and access to belowground water reservoirs, whether in groundwater or deep soil moisture, could explain the different behaviors observed across sites. This variety of responses is not captured by a standard land surface model, likely reflecting simplifications in its representation of belowground water storage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Giardina
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, CH-8092, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland
| | - Pierre Gentine
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA
- Center for Learning the Earth with Artificial Intelligence and Physics (LEAP), Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA
| | - Alexandra G Konings
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, CH-8092, Switzerland
| | - Benjamin D Stocker
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, CH-8092, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland
- Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Falkenplatz 16, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
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2
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Vicedo-Cabrera AM, de Schrijver E, Schumacher DL, Ragettli MS, Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI. The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland. Environ Res Lett 2023; 18:074037. [PMID: 38476980 PMCID: PMC7615730 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace0d0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/14/2024]
Abstract
Human-induced climate change is leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, which are severely affecting the health of the population. The exceptional heat during the summer of 2022 in Europe is an example, with record-breaking temperatures only below the infamous 2003 summer. High ambient temperatures are associated with many health outcomes, including premature mortality. However, there is limited quantitative evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic activities to the substantial heat-related mortality observed in recent times. Here we combined methods in climate epidemiology and attribution to quantify the heat-related mortality burden attributed to human-induced climate change in Switzerland during the summer of 2022. We first estimated heat-mortality association in each canton and age/sex population between 1990 and 2017 in a two-stage time-series analysis. We then calculated the mortality attributed to heat in the summer of 2022 using observed mortality, and compared it with the hypothetical heat-related burden that would have occurred in absence of human-induced climate change. This counterfactual scenario was derived by regressing the Swiss average temperature against global mean temperature in both observations and CMIP6 models. We estimate 623 deaths [95% empirical confidence interval (95% eCI): 151-1068] due to heat between June and August 2022, corresponding to 3.5% of all-cause mortality. More importantly, we find that 60% of this burden (370 deaths [95% eCI: 133-644]) could have been avoided in absence of human-induced climate change. Older women were affected the most, as well as populations in western and southern Switzerland and more urbanized areas. Our findings demonstrate that human-induced climate change was a relevant driver of the exceptional excess health burden observed in the 2022 summer in Switzerland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Evan de Schrijver
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate School of Health Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Erich M Fischer
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
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3
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Liu L, Ciais P, Wu M, Padrón RS, Friedlingstein P, Schwaab J, Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI. Increasingly negative tropical water-interannual CO 2 growth rate coupling. Nature 2023; 618:755-760. [PMID: 37258674 PMCID: PMC10284699 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06056-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2022] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) are dominated by land-atmosphere carbon fluxes in the tropics, providing an opportunity to explore land carbon-climate interactions3-6. It is thought that variations in CGR are largely controlled by temperature7-10 but there is also evidence for a tight coupling between water availability and CGR11. Here, we use a record of global atmospheric CO2, terrestrial water storage and precipitation data to investigate changes in the interannual relationship between tropical land climate conditions and CGR under a changing climate. We find that the interannual relationship between tropical water availability and CGR became increasingly negative during 1989-2018 compared to 1960-1989. This could be related to spatiotemporal changes in tropical water availability anomalies driven by shifts in El Niño/Southern Oscillation teleconnections, including declining spatial compensatory water effects9. We also demonstrate that most state-of-the-art coupled Earth System and Land Surface models do not reproduce the intensifying water-carbon coupling. Our results indicate that tropical water availability is increasingly controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle and modulating tropical terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laibao Liu
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Mengxi Wu
- Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE), University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Ryan S Padrón
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Jonas Schwaab
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Lukas Gudmundsson
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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4
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Roebroek CTJ, Duveiller G, Seneviratne SI, Davin EL, Cescatti A. Releasing global forests from human management: How much more carbon could be stored? Science 2023; 380:749-753. [PMID: 37200428 DOI: 10.1126/science.add5878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Carbon storage in forests is a cornerstone of policy-making to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C. However, the global impact of management (for example, harvesting) on the carbon budget of forests remains poorly quantified. We integrated global maps of forest biomass and management with machine learning to show that by removing human intervention, under current climatic conditions and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, existing global forests could increase their aboveground biomass by up to 44.1 (error range: 21.0 to 63.0) petagrams of carbon. This is an increase of 15 to 16% over current levels, equating to about 4 years of current anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Therefore, without strong reductions in emissions, this strategy holds low mitigation potential, and the forest sink should be preserved to offset residual carbon emissions rather than to compensate for present emissions levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caspar T J Roebroek
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | | | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Edouard L Davin
- Wyss Academy for Nature, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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5
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Ruane AC, Vautard R, Ranasinghe R, Sillmann J, Coppola E, Arnell N, Cruz FA, Dessai S, Iles CE, Islam AKMS, Jones RG, Rahimi M, Carrascal DR, Seneviratne SI, Servonnat J, Sörensson AA, Sylla MB, Tebaldi C, Wang W, Zaaboul R. The Climatic Impact-Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk-Relevant Climate Information. Earths Future 2022; 10:e2022EF002803. [PMID: 36582412 PMCID: PMC9787381 DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002803] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2022] [Revised: 10/05/2022] [Accepted: 10/11/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand-driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the "climatic impact-driver" (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as "physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions." We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co-developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex C. Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Robert Vautard
- Institut Pierre‐Simon LaplaceCNRSParisFrance
- Université Paris‐SaclayParisFrance
- Sorbonne UniversitéParisFrance
| | - Roshanka Ranasinghe
- Department of Coastal and Urban Risk & ResilienceIHE Delft Institute for Water EducationDelftThe Netherlands
- Department of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore EngineeringDeltaresDelftThe Netherlands
| | - Jana Sillmann
- Research Unit for Sustainability and Climate RisksUniversity of HamburgHamburgGermany
- Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | - Erika Coppola
- The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsTriesteItaly
| | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | | | - Suraje Dessai
- School of Earth and Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and PolicyUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - Carley E. Iles
- Institut Pierre‐Simon LaplaceCNRSParisFrance
- Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | - A. K. M. Saiful Islam
- Institute of Water and Flood ManagementBangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)DhakaBangladesh
| | - Richard G. Jones
- Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
- School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | | | - Daniel Ruiz Carrascal
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental BiologyColumbia University in the City of New YorkNew YorkNYUSA
- Columbia Climate SchoolColumbia University in the City of New YorkNew YorkNYUSA
- International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyColumbia University in the City of New YorkNew YorkNYUSA
| | | | | | - Anna A. Sörensson
- Faculty of Exact and Natural SciencesUniversity of Buenos AiresBuenos AiresArgentina
- Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CONICET – UBA)Buenos AiresArgentina
- CNRS, CNRS – IRD – CONICET – UBA, Instituto Franco‐Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (IRL 3351 IFAECI)Buenos AiresArgentina
| | | | - Claudia Tebaldi
- Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCAUSA
- Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMDUSA
| | - Wen Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology‐Water Resources and Hydraulic EngineeringHohai UniversityNanjingChina
| | - Rashyd Zaaboul
- International Centre for Biosaline AgricultureDubaiUAE
- University of AlmeríaAlmeríaSpain
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6
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Yu K, Ciais P, Seneviratne SI, Liu Z, Chen HYH, Barichivich J, Allen CD, Yang H, Huang Y, Ballantyne AP. Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks. Nat Commun 2022; 13:2094. [PMID: 35440564 PMCID: PMC9018757 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29619-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2021] [Accepted: 03/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Considerable uncertainty and debate exist in projecting the future capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2. Here we estimate spatially explicit patterns of biomass loss by tree mortality (LOSS) from largely unmanaged forest plots to constrain projected (2015–2099) net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (HR) and net carbon sink in six dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) across continents. This approach relies on a strong relationship among LOSS, NPP, and HR at continental or biome scales. The DGVMs overestimated historical LOSS, particularly in tropical regions and eastern North America by as much as 5 Mg ha−1 y−1. The modeled spread of DGVM-projected NPP and HR uncertainties was substantially reduced in tropical regions after incorporating the field-based mortality constraint. The observation-constrained models show a decrease in the tropical forest carbon sink by the end of the century, particularly across South America (from 2 to 1.4 PgC y−1), and an increase in the sink in North America (from 0.8 to 1.1 PgC y−1). These results highlight the feasibility of using forest demographic data to empirically constrain forest carbon sink projections and the potential overestimation of projected tropical forest carbon sinks. Here the authors use broad-scale tree mortality data to estimate biomass loss, constraining uncertainty of projected forest net primary productivity in 6 models, finding weaker tropical forest carbon sinks with climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kailiang Yu
- Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCECEA/CNRS/UVSQ Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. .,Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, USA.
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCECEA/CNRS/UVSQ Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Zhihua Liu
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, USA
| | - Han Y H Chen
- Faculty of Natural Resources Management, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON, Canada
| | - Jonathan Barichivich
- Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCECEA/CNRS/UVSQ Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
| | - Craig D Allen
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - Hui Yang
- Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCECEA/CNRS/UVSQ Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| | - Yuanyuan Huang
- Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCECEA/CNRS/UVSQ Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Australia
| | - Ashley P Ballantyne
- Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCECEA/CNRS/UVSQ Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, USA
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7
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Thiery W, Lange S, Rogelj J, Schleussner CF, Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI, Andrijevic M, Frieler K, Emanuel K, Geiger T, Bresch DN, Zhao F, Willner SN, Büchner M, Volkholz J, Bauer N, Chang J, Ciais P, Dury M, François L, Grillakis M, Gosling SN, Hanasaki N, Hickler T, Huber V, Ito A, Jägermeyr J, Khabarov N, Koutroulis A, Liu W, Lutz W, Mengel M, Müller C, Ostberg S, Reyer CPO, Stacke T, Wada Y. Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science 2021; 374:158-160. [PMID: 34565177 DOI: 10.1126/science.abi7339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
[Figure: see text].
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Affiliation(s)
- Wim Thiery
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Stefan Lange
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | | | | | | | | | - Katja Frieler
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Kerry Emanuel
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Tobias Geiger
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - David N Bresch
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Fang Zhao
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Sven N Willner
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Jan Volkholz
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Nico Bauer
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Jinfeng Chang
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Marie Dury
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Louis François
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | | | - Simon N Gosling
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Naota Hanasaki
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Thomas Hickler
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Veronika Huber
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Akihiko Ito
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Jonas Jägermeyr
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Nikolay Khabarov
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | | | - Wenfeng Liu
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Wolfgang Lutz
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Matthias Mengel
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Christoph Müller
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | | | | | - Tobias Stacke
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
| | - Yoshihide Wada
- Author affiliations are available in the supplementary materials
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8
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Lesk C, Coffel E, Winter J, Ray D, Zscheischler J, Seneviratne SI, Horton R. Stronger temperature-moisture couplings exacerbate the impact of climate warming on global crop yields. Nat Food 2021; 2:683-691. [PMID: 37117467 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00341-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 07/08/2021] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Rising air temperatures are a leading risk to global crop production. Recent research has emphasized the critical role of moisture availability in regulating crop responses to heat and the importance of temperature-moisture couplings in driving concurrent heat and drought. Here, we demonstrate that the heat sensitivity of key global crops depends on the local strength of couplings between temperature and moisture in the climate system. Over 1970-2013, maize and soy yields dropped more during hotter growing seasons in places where decreased precipitation and evapotranspiration more strongly accompanied higher temperatures, suggestive of compound heat-drought impacts on crops. On the basis of this historical pattern and a suite of climate model projections, we show that changes in temperature-moisture couplings in response to warming could enhance the heat sensitivity of these crops as temperatures rise, worsening the impact of warming by -5% (-17 to 11% across climate models) on global average. However, these changes will benefit crops where couplings weaken, including much of Asia, and projected impacts are highly uncertain in some regions. Our results demonstrate that climate change will impact crops not only through warming but also through changing drivers of compound heat-moisture stresses, which may alter the sensitivity of crop yields to heat as warming proceeds. Robust adaptation of cropping systems will need to consider this underappreciated risk to food production from climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Corey Lesk
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA.
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Ethan Coffel
- Department of Geography and the Environment, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, USA
| | - Jonathan Winter
- Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - Deepak Ray
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Radley Horton
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA
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9
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Jay O, Capon A, Berry P, Broderick C, de Dear R, Havenith G, Honda Y, Kovats RS, Ma W, Malik A, Morris NB, Nybo L, Seneviratne SI, Vanos J, Ebi KL. Reducing the health effects of hot weather and heat extremes: from personal cooling strategies to green cities. Lancet 2021; 398:709-724. [PMID: 34419206 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01209-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 110] [Impact Index Per Article: 36.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2020] [Revised: 12/19/2020] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Heat extremes (ie, heatwaves) already have a serious impact on human health, with ageing, poverty, and chronic illnesses as aggravating factors. As the global community seeks to contend with even hotter weather in the future as a consequence of global climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the most effective prevention and response measures that can be implemented, particularly in low-resource settings. In this Series paper, we describe how a future reliance on air conditioning is unsustainable and further marginalises the communities most vulnerable to the heat. We then show that a more holistic understanding of the thermal environment at the landscape and urban, building, and individual scales supports the identification of numerous sustainable opportunities to keep people cooler. We summarise the benefits (eg, effectiveness) and limitations of each identified cooling strategy, and recommend optimal interventions for settings such as aged care homes, slums, workplaces, mass gatherings, refugee camps, and playing sport. The integration of this information into well communicated heat action plans with robust surveillance and monitoring is essential for reducing the adverse health consequences of current and future extreme heat.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ollie Jay
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney School of Health Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Faculty of Medicine and Health, Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
| | - Anthony Capon
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Peter Berry
- Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, ON, Canada
| | - Carolyn Broderick
- School of Medical Sciences, UNSW Medicine, Sydney, UNSW, Australia; The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Richard de Dear
- Indoor Environmental Quality Laboratory, School of Architecture, Design, and Planning, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - George Havenith
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - R Sari Kovats
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Wei Ma
- School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Arunima Malik
- School of Physics, Faculty of Science, ISA, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Discipline of Accounting, Business School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Nathan B Morris
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Nutrition, Exercise, and Sports, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Lars Nybo
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise, and Sports, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jennifer Vanos
- School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, AZ, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, WA, USA
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10
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Ebi KL, Capon A, Berry P, Broderick C, de Dear R, Havenith G, Honda Y, Kovats RS, Ma W, Malik A, Morris NB, Nybo L, Seneviratne SI, Vanos J, Jay O. Hot weather and heat extremes: health risks. Lancet 2021; 398:698-708. [PMID: 34419205 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01208-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 278] [Impact Index Per Article: 92.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2020] [Revised: 12/15/2020] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Hot ambient conditions and associated heat stress can increase mortality and morbidity, as well as increase adverse pregnancy outcomes and negatively affect mental health. High heat stress can also reduce physical work capacity and motor-cognitive performances, with consequences for productivity, and increase the risk of occupational health problems. Almost half of the global population and more than 1 billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes and about a third of all exposed workers have negative health effects. However, excess deaths and many heat-related health risks are preventable, with appropriate heat action plans involving behavioural strategies and biophysical solutions. Extreme heat events are becoming permanent features of summer seasons worldwide, causing many excess deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase further as climate change progresses, with greater risk associated with higher degrees of global warming. Particularly in tropical regions, increased warming might mean that physiological limits related to heat tolerance (survival) will be reached regularly and more often in coming decades. Climate change is interacting with other trends, such as population growth and ageing, urbanisation, and socioeconomic development, that can either exacerbate or ameliorate heat-related hazards. Urban temperatures are further enhanced by anthropogenic heat from vehicular transport and heat waste from buildings. Although there is some evidence of adaptation to increasing temperatures in high-income countries, projections of a hotter future suggest that without investment in research and risk management actions, heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Anthony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Peter Berry
- Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
| | - Carolyn Broderick
- School of Medical Sciences, UNSW Sydney, NSW, Australia; The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Richard de Dear
- Indoor Environmental Quality Laboratory, School of Architecture, Design, and Planning, Sydney, NSW, Australia; The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - George Havenith
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, School of Design and Creative Arts, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - R Sari Kovats
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Wei Ma
- School of Public Health and Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Arunima Malik
- Discipline of Accounting, Business School, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Physics, Faculty of Science, ISA, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Nathan B Morris
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Nutrition, Exercise, and Sports, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Lars Nybo
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise, and Sports, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jennifer Vanos
- School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Ollie Jay
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney School of Health Sciences, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Faculty of Medicine and Health, Charles Perkins Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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11
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Ciavarella A, Cotterill D, Stott P, Kew S, Philip S, van Oldenborgh GJ, Skålevåg A, Lorenz P, Robin Y, Otto F, Hauser M, Seneviratne SI, Lehner F, Zolina O. Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence. Clim Change 2021; 166:9. [PMID: 34720262 PMCID: PMC8550097 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both observational datasets and a large collection of climate models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution and many from the latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, CMIP6. Conscious that the impacts of heatwaves can span large differences in spatial and temporal scales, we focus on two measures of the extreme Siberian heat of 2020: January to June mean temperatures over a large Siberian region and maximum daily temperatures in the vicinity of the town of Verkhoyansk. We show that human-induced climate change has dramatically increased the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extremes in both of these (with lower confidence for the probability for Verkhoyansk) and that without human influence the temperatures widely experienced in Siberia in the first half of 2020 would have been practically impossible. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Peter Stott
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB UK
| | - Sarah Kew
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
| | - Sjoukje Philip
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
| | | | - Amalie Skålevåg
- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Güterfelder Damm 87-91, 14532 Stahnsdorf, Germany
| | - Philip Lorenz
- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Güterfelder Damm 87-91, 14532 Stahnsdorf, Germany
| | | | - Friederike Otto
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX UK
| | - Mathias Hauser
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | | | - Flavio Lehner
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Olga Zolina
- IGE/UGA, Grenoble, France
- P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, Russia
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12
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Lloyd EA, Oreskes N, Seneviratne SI, Larson EJ. Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high. Clim Change 2021; 165:55. [PMID: 33897072 PMCID: PMC8054254 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03061-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2020] [Accepted: 03/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Standards of proof for attributing real world events/damage to global warming should be the same as in clinical or environmental lawsuits, argue Lloyd et al. The central question that we raise is effective communication. How can climate scientists best and effectively communicate their findings to crucial non-expert audiences, including public policy makers and civil society? To address this question, we look at the mismatch between what courts require and what climate scientists are setting as a bar of proof. Our first point is that scientists typically demand too much of themselves in terms of evidence, in comparison with the level of evidence required in a legal, regulatory, or public policy context. Our second point is to recommend that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommend more prominently the use of the category "more likely than not" as a level of proof in their reports, as this corresponds to the standard of proof most frequently required in civil court rooms. This has also implications for public policy and the public communication of climate evidence. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03061-9.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisabeth A. Lloyd
- History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine Department, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA
| | - Naomi Oreskes
- History of Science Department, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA
| | | | - Edward J. Larson
- Humanities Division and Caruso School of Law, Pepperdine University, Malibu, CA USA
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13
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Gudmundsson L, Boulange J, Do HX, Gosling SN, Grillakis MG, Koutroulis AG, Leonard M, Liu J, Müller Schmied H, Papadimitriou L, Pokhrel Y, Seneviratne SI, Satoh Y, Thiery W, Westra S, Zhang X, Zhao F. Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change. Science 2021; 371:1159-1162. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aba3996] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2019] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lukas Gudmundsson
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Julien Boulange
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Hong X. Do
- School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Simon N. Gosling
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK
| | - Manolis G. Grillakis
- Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Rethymno 74100, Greece
| | | | - Michael Leonard
- School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Junguo Liu
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Hannes Müller Schmied
- Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Lamprini Papadimitriou
- Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, UK
- Mott MacDonald Ltd, Cambridge, UK
| | - Yadu Pokhrel
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Yusuke Satoh
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Wim Thiery
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
- Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Seth Westra
- School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | | | - Fang Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
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14
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Liu L, Gudmundsson L, Hauser M, Qin D, Li S, Seneviratne SI. Soil moisture dominates dryness stress on ecosystem production globally. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4892. [PMID: 32994398 PMCID: PMC7524720 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18631-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2019] [Accepted: 08/19/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Dryness stress can limit vegetation growth and is often characterized by low soil moisture (SM) and high atmospheric water demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD). However, the relative role of SM and VPD in limiting ecosystem production remains debated and is difficult to disentangle, as SM and VPD are coupled through land-atmosphere interactions, hindering the ability to predict ecosystem responses to dryness. Here, we combine satellite observations of solar-induced fluorescence with estimates of SM and VPD and show that SM is the dominant driver of dryness stress on ecosystem production across more than 70% of vegetated land areas with valid data. Moreover, after accounting for SM-VPD coupling, VPD effects on ecosystem production are much smaller across large areas. We also find that SM stress is strongest in semi-arid ecosystems. Our results clarify a longstanding question and open new avenues for improving models to allow a better management of drought risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laibao Liu
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. .,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
| | - Lukas Gudmundsson
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Mathias Hauser
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Dahe Qin
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Shuangcheng Li
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
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15
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Seneviratne SI, Hauser M. Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles. Earths Future 2020; 8:e2019EF001474. [PMID: 33043069 PMCID: PMC7539979 DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001474] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2020] [Revised: 05/04/2020] [Accepted: 05/05/2020] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
We analyze projected changes in climate extremes (extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation) in the multimodel ensembles of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results reveal close similarity between both ensembles in the regional climate sensitivity of the projected multimodel mean changes in climate extremes, that is, their projected changes as a function of global warming. This stands in contrast to widely reported divergences in global (transient and equilibrium) climate sensitivity in the two multimodel ensembles. Some exceptions include higher warming in the South America monsoon region, lower warming in Southern Asia and Central Africa, and higher increases in heavy precipitation in Western Africa and the Sahel region in the CMIP6 ensemble. The multimodel spread in regional climate sensitivity is found to be large in both ensembles. In particular, it contributes more to intermodel spread in projected regional climate extremes compared with the intermodel spread in global climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Our results highlight the need to consider regional climate sensitivity as a distinct feature of Earth system models and a key determinant of projected regional impacts, which is largely independent of the models' response in global climate sensitivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Mathias Hauser
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
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16
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Thiery W, Visser AJ, Fischer EM, Hauser M, Hirsch AL, Lawrence DM, Lejeune Q, Davin EL, Seneviratne SI. Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation. Nat Commun 2020; 11:290. [PMID: 31941885 PMCID: PMC6962396 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-14075-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2018] [Accepted: 11/26/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Irrigation affects climate conditions - and especially hot extremes - in various regions across the globe. Yet how these climatic effects compare to other anthropogenic forcings is largely unknown. Here we provide observational and model evidence that expanding irrigation has dampened historical anthropogenic warming during hot days, with particularly strong effects over South Asia. We show that irrigation expansion can explain the negative correlation between global observed changes in daytime summer temperatures and present-day irrigation extent. While global warming increases the likelihood of hot extremes almost globally, irrigation can regionally cancel or even reverse the effects of all other forcings combined. Around one billion people (0.79-1.29) currently benefit from this dampened increase in hot extremes because irrigation massively expanded throughout the 20[Formula: see text] century. Our results therefore highlight that irrigation substantially reduced human exposure to warming of hot extremes but question whether this benefit will continue towards the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wim Thiery
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.
- Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050, Brussels, Belgium.
| | - Auke J Visser
- Meteorology and Air Quality group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3a, 6708PB, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Erich M Fischer
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Mathias Hauser
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Annette L Hirsch
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, 2052, Sydney, Australia
| | | | | | - Edouard L Davin
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
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17
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Friedlingstein P, Allen M, Canadell JG, Peters GP, Seneviratne SI. Comment on "The global tree restoration potential". Science 2019; 366:366/6463/eaay8060. [PMID: 31624183 DOI: 10.1126/science.aay8060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2019] [Accepted: 09/27/2019] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
Bastin et al (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) claim that global tree restoration is the most effective climate change solution to date, with a reported carbon storage potential of 205 gigatonnes of carbon. However, this estimate and its implications for climate mitigation are inconsistent with the dynamics of the global carbon cycle and its response to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK.
| | - Myles Allen
- Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PJ, UK
| | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Glen P Peters
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, Norway
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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18
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Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jacob D, Taylor M, Guillén Bolaños T, Bindi M, Brown S, Camilloni IA, Diedhiou A, Djalante R, Ebi K, Engelbrecht F, Guiot J, Hijioka Y, Mehrotra S, Hope CW, Payne AJ, Pörtner HO, Seneviratne SI, Thomas A, Warren R, Zhou G. The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C. Science 2019. [PMID: 31604209 DOI: 10.1016/b978-1-78548-051-5.50007-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- O Hoegh-Guldberg
- Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - D Jacob
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany
| | - M Taylor
- Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica
| | - T Guillén Bolaños
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany
| | - M Bindi
- Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, 50144 Firenze, Italy
| | - S Brown
- Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Southampton, Boldrewood Innovation Campus, Southampton SO16 7QF, UK
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Bournemouth University, Fern Barrow, Poole, Dorset BH12 5BB, UK
| | - I A Camilloni
- Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (UBA-CONICET), UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, and Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEN), University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - A Diedhiou
- Université Grenoble Alpes, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD), CNRS, Grenoble INP, IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - R Djalante
- United Nations University-Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS), Tokyo, Japan
- Halu Oleo University, Kendari, South East Sulawesi, Indonesia
| | - K Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - F Engelbrecht
- Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa
| | - J Guiot
- Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INRA, Collège de France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Y Hijioka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | | | - C W Hope
- Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - H-O Pörtner
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - S I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - A Thomas
- Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
- Environmental and Life Sciences, University of the Bahamas, Nassau 76905, Bahamas
| | - R Warren
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - G Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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19
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Zhou S, Williams AP, Berg AM, Cook BI, Zhang Y, Hagemann S, Lorenz R, Seneviratne SI, Gentine P. Land-atmosphere feedbacks exacerbate concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:18848-18853. [PMID: 31481606 PMCID: PMC6754607 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1904955116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Compound extremes such as cooccurring soil drought (low soil moisture) and atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit) can be disastrous for natural and societal systems. Soil drought and atmospheric aridity are 2 main physiological stressors driving widespread vegetation mortality and reduced terrestrial carbon uptake. Here, we empirically demonstrate that strong negative coupling between soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit occurs globally, indicating high probability of cooccurring soil drought and atmospheric aridity. Using the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we further show that concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity are greatly exacerbated by land-atmosphere feedbacks. The feedback of soil drought on the atmosphere is largely responsible for enabling atmospheric aridity extremes. In addition, the soil moisture-precipitation feedback acts to amplify precipitation and soil moisture deficits in most regions. CMIP5 models further show that the frequency of concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity enhanced by land-atmosphere feedbacks is projected to increase in the 21st century. Importantly, land-atmosphere feedbacks will greatly increase the intensity of both soil drought and atmospheric aridity beyond that expected from changes in mean climate alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sha Zhou
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964;
- Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
| | - A Park Williams
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
| | - Alexis M Berg
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Benjamin I Cook
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10027
| | - Yao Zhang
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
| | - Stefan Hagemann
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
| | - Ruth Lorenz
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Pierre Gentine
- Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
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20
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Hagedorn G, Kalmus P, Mann M, Vicca S, Van den Berge J, van Ypersele JP, Bourg D, Rotmans J, Kaaronen R, Rahmstorf S, Kromp-Kolb H, Kirchengast G, Knutti R, Seneviratne SI, Thalmann P, Cretney R, Green A, Anderson K, Hedberg M, Nilsson D, Kuttner A, Hayhoe K. Concerns of young protesters are justified. Science 2019; 364:139-140. [PMID: 30975882 DOI: 10.1126/science.aax3807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Peter Kalmus
- Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
| | - Michael Mann
- Earth System Science Center, Penn State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
| | - Sara Vicca
- Universiteit Antwerpen, Wilrijk, Antwerp, Belgium
| | | | | | | | - Jan Rotmans
- Erasmus University, Rotterdam, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Roope Kaaronen
- Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Stefan Rahmstorf
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Helga Kromp-Kolb
- Center for Global Change and Sustainability, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Gottfried Kirchengast
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria
| | - Reto Knutti
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Philippe Thalmann
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Raven Cretney
- Department of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Waikato, Hamilton, Waikato, New Zealand
| | | | - Kevin Anderson
- The University of Manchester, UK.,Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - Douglas Nilsson
- Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Amita Kuttner
- University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
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21
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Schewe J, Gosling SN, Reyer C, Zhao F, Ciais P, Elliott J, Francois L, Huber V, Lotze HK, Seneviratne SI, van Vliet MTH, Vautard R, Wada Y, Breuer L, Büchner M, Carozza DA, Chang J, Coll M, Deryng D, de Wit A, Eddy TD, Folberth C, Frieler K, Friend AD, Gerten D, Gudmundsson L, Hanasaki N, Ito A, Khabarov N, Kim H, Lawrence P, Morfopoulos C, Müller C, Müller Schmied H, Orth R, Ostberg S, Pokhrel Y, Pugh TAM, Sakurai G, Satoh Y, Schmid E, Stacke T, Steenbeek J, Steinkamp J, Tang Q, Tian H, Tittensor DP, Volkholz J, Wang X, Warszawski L. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1005. [PMID: 30824763 PMCID: PMC6397256 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2018] [Accepted: 01/28/2019] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacob Schewe
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Simon N Gosling
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, UK
| | - Christopher Reyer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Fang Zhao
- School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Joshua Elliott
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, 5735S. Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
| | - Louis Francois
- Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique/U.R. SPHERES, Université de Liège, B-4000, LIEGE, Belgium
| | - Veronika Huber
- Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Ctra. de Utrera 1, 41013, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Heike K Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- ETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Michelle T H van Vliet
- Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Vautard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Yoshihide Wada
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Lutz Breuer
- Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, 35390, Giessen, Germany
- Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Senckenbergstraße 3, 35392, Giessen, Germany
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - David A Carozza
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 0E8, Canada
- Department of Mathematics, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, H2X 3Y7, Canada
| | - Jinfeng Chang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM - CSIC), Barcelona, E-08003, Spain
| | - Delphine Deryng
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, 15374, Germany
- IRI THEsys, Humboldt University of Berlin, 10117, Berlin, Germany
| | - Allard de Wit
- Wageningen Environmental Research, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Tyler D Eddy
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
- Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada
- Nereus Program, Institute for Marine & Coastal Sciences, School of the Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of South Carolina, Columbia, 29208, SC, USA
| | - Christian Folberth
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Katja Frieler
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Andrew D Friend
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK
| | - Dieter Gerten
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099, Berlin, Germany
| | - Lukas Gudmundsson
- ETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Naota Hanasaki
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Akihiko Ito
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Nikolay Khabarov
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Hyungjun Kim
- Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 153-8505, Japan
| | - Peter Lawrence
- Terrestrial Science Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA
| | - Catherine Morfopoulos
- Imperial College of London, Department of Life Science, Silwood Park Campus Buckhurst Rd, Berks, SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Hannes Müller Schmied
- Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt, Germany
| | - René Orth
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, D-07745, Jena, Germany
| | - Sebastian Ostberg
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Yadu Pokhrel
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, MI, 48824, USA
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
| | - Gen Sakurai
- Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8604, Japan
| | - Yusuke Satoh
- Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Erwin Schmid
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria
| | - Tobias Stacke
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
| | | | - Jörg Steinkamp
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt, Germany
- Johannes Gutenberg-University, Anselm-Franz-von-Bentzel-Weg 12, 55128, Mainz, Germany
| | - Qiuhong Tang
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China
| | - Hanqin Tian
- School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DP, UK
| | - Jan Volkholz
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Xuhui Wang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, 75005, France
| | - Lila Warszawski
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
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22
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Moon H, Guillod BP, Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI. Soil Moisture Effects on Afternoon Precipitation Occurrence in Current Climate Models. Geophys Res Lett 2019; 46:1861-1869. [PMID: 31031452 PMCID: PMC6472677 DOI: 10.1029/2018gl080879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2018] [Revised: 01/16/2019] [Accepted: 01/20/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks in a large ensemble of global climate model simulations are evaluated. A set of three metrics are used to assess the sensitivity of afternoon rainfall occurrence to morning soil moisture in terms of their spatial, temporal, and heterogeneity characteristics. Positive (negative) spatial feedback indicates that the afternoon rainfall occurs more frequently over wetter (drier) land surface than its surroundings. Positive (negative) temporal feedback indicates preference over temporally wetter (drier) conditions, and positive (negative) heterogeneity feedback indicates preference over more spatially heterogeneous (homogeneous) soil moisture conditions. We confirm previous results highlighting a dominantly positive spatial feedback in the models as opposed to observations. On average, models tend to agree better with observations for temporal and heterogeneity feedback characteristics, although intermodel variability is largest for these metrics. The collective influence of the three feedbacks suggests that they may lead to more localized precipitation persistence in models than in observations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heewon Moon
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Benoit P. Guillod
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
- Institute for Environmental DecisionsETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Lukas Gudmundsson
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
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23
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Padrón RS, Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI. Observational Constraints Reduce Likelihood of Extreme Changes in Multidecadal Land Water Availability. Geophys Res Lett 2019; 46:736-744. [PMID: 31007308 PMCID: PMC6472569 DOI: 10.1029/2018gl080521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2018] [Revised: 12/17/2018] [Accepted: 12/18/2018] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Future changes in multidecadal mean water availability, represented as the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, remain highly uncertain in ensemble simulations of climate models. Here we identify a physically meaningful relationship between present-day mean precipitation and projected changes in water availability. This suggests that the uncertainty can be reduced by conditioning the ensemble on observed precipitation, which is achieved through a novel probabilistic approach that uses Approximate Bayesian Computation. Comparing the constrained with the full ensemble shows that projected extreme changes in water availability, denoted by the 5th and 95th percentile of the full ensemble, are less likely over 73% and 63% of land, respectively. There is also an overall shift toward wetter conditions over Europe, Southern Africa, and Western North America, whereas the opposite occurs over the Amazon. Finally, the constrained projections support adaptation to shifts in regional water availability as imposed by different global warming levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan S. Padrón
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Lukas Gudmundsson
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
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24
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Miralles DG, Gentine P, Seneviratne SI, Teuling AJ. Cover Image, Volume 1436, Issue 1. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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25
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Miralles DG, Gentine P, Seneviratne SI, Teuling AJ. Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2019; 1436:19-35. [PMID: 29943456 PMCID: PMC6378599 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13912] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2018] [Revised: 05/29/2018] [Accepted: 06/01/2018] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Droughts and heatwaves cause agricultural loss, forest mortality, and drinking water scarcity, especially when they occur simultaneously as combined events. Their predicted increase in recurrence and intensity poses serious threats to future food security. Still today, the knowledge of how droughts and heatwaves start and evolve remains limited, and so does our understanding of how climate change may affect them. Droughts and heatwaves have been suggested to intensify and propagate via land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, a global capacity to observe these processes is still lacking, and climate and forecast models are immature when it comes to representing the influences of land on temperature and rainfall. Key open questions remain in our goal to uncover the real importance of these feedbacks: What is the impact of the extreme meteorological conditions on ecosystem evaporation? How do these anomalies regulate the atmospheric boundary layer state (event self-intensification) and contribute to the inflow of heat and moisture to other regions (event self-propagation)? Can this knowledge on the role of land feedbacks, when available, be exploited to develop geo-engineering mitigation strategies that prevent these events from aggravating during their early stages? The goal of our perspective is not to present a convincing answer to these questions, but to assess the scientific progress to date, while highlighting new and innovative avenues to keep advancing our understanding in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diego G. Miralles
- Laboratory of Hydrology and Water ManagementGhent UniversityGhentBelgium
| | - Pierre Gentine
- Earth and Environmental EngineeringColumbia UniversityNew YorkNew York
| | | | - Adriaan J. Teuling
- Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management GroupWageningen University and ResearchWageningenthe Netherlands
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26
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Green JK, Seneviratne SI, Berg AM, Findell KL, Hagemann S, Lawrence DM, Gentine P. Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature 2019; 565:476-479. [PMID: 30675043 PMCID: PMC6355256 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0848-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2018] [Accepted: 11/21/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Although the terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 25 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the rate of land carbon uptake remains highly uncertain, leading to uncertainties in climate projections1,2. Understanding the factors that limit or drive land carbon storage is therefore important for improving climate predictions. One potential limiting factor for land carbon uptake is soil moisture, which can reduce gross primary production through ecosystem water stress3,4, cause vegetation mortality5 and further exacerbate climate extremes due to land-atmosphere feedbacks6. Previous work has explored the impact of soil-moisture availability on past carbon-flux variability3,7,8. However, the influence of soil-moisture variability and trends on the long-term carbon sink and the mechanisms responsible for associated carbon losses remain uncertain. Here we use the data output from four Earth system models9 from a series of experiments to analyse the responses of terrestrial net biome productivity to soil-moisture changes, and find that soil-moisture variability and trends induce large CO2 fluxes (about two to three gigatons of carbon per year; comparable with the land carbon sink itself1) throughout the twenty-first century. Subseasonal and interannual soil-moisture variability generate CO2 as a result of the nonlinear response of photosynthesis and net ecosystem exchange to soil-water availability and of the increased temperature and vapour pressure deficit caused by land-atmosphere interactions. Soil-moisture variability reduces the present land carbon sink, and its increase and drying trends in several regions are expected to reduce it further. Our results emphasize that the capacity of continents to act as a future carbon sink critically depends on the nonlinear response of carbon fluxes to soil moisture and on land-atmosphere interactions. This suggests that the increasing trend in carbon uptake rate may not be sustained past the middle of the century and could result in accelerated atmospheric CO2 growth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia K Green
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Alexis M Berg
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | | | - Stefan Hagemann
- Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
| | - David M Lawrence
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Terrestrial Sciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Pierre Gentine
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
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27
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Hirsch AL, Prestele R, Davin EL, Seneviratne SI, Thiery W, Verburg PH. Modelled biophysical impacts of conservation agriculture on local climates. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:4758-4774. [PMID: 29947445 PMCID: PMC6175211 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2017] [Accepted: 06/01/2018] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Including the parameterization of land management practices into Earth System Models has been shown to influence the simulation of regional climates, particularly for temperature extremes. However, recent model development has focused on implementing irrigation where other land management practices such as conservation agriculture (CA) has been limited due to the lack of global spatially explicit datasets describing where this form of management is practiced. Here, we implement a representation of CA into the Community Earth System Model and show that the quality of simulated surface energy fluxes improves when including more information on how agricultural land is managed. We also compare the climate response at the subgrid scale where CA is applied. We find that CA generally contributes to local cooling (~1°C) of hot temperature extremes in mid-latitude regions where it is practiced, while over tropical locations CA contributes to local warming (~1°C) due to changes in evapotranspiration dominating the effects of enhanced surface albedo. In particular, changes in the partitioning of evapotranspiration between soil evaporation and transpiration are critical for the sign of the temperature change: a cooling occurs only when the soil moisture retention and associated enhanced transpiration is sufficient to offset the warming from reduced soil evaporation. Finally, we examine the climate change mitigation potential of CA by comparing a simulation with present-day CA extent to a simulation where CA is expanded to all suitable crop areas. Here, our results indicate that while the local temperature response to CA is considerable cooling (>2°C), the grid-scale changes in climate are counteractive due to negative atmospheric feedbacks. Overall, our results underline that CA has a nonnegligible impact on the local climate and that it should therefore be considered in future climate projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annette L. Hirsch
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography GroupInstitute for Environmental StudiesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Edouard L. Davin
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | | | - Wim Thiery
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
- Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic EngineeringVrije Universiteit BrusselBrusselsBelgium
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- Environmental Geography GroupInstitute for Environmental StudiesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
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28
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Prestele R, Hirsch AL, Davin EL, Seneviratne SI, Verburg PH. A spatially explicit representation of conservation agriculture for application in global change studies. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:4038-4053. [PMID: 29749125 PMCID: PMC6120452 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2017] [Revised: 03/19/2018] [Accepted: 04/29/2018] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
Conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable agricultural management strategy with the potential to alleviate some of the adverse effects of modern, industrial agriculture such as large-scale soil erosion, nutrient leaching and overexploitation of water resources. Moreover, agricultural land managed under CA is proposed to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation through reduced emission of greenhouse gases, increased solar radiation reflection, and the sustainable use of soil and water resources. Due to the lack of official reporting schemes, the amount of agricultural land managed under CA systems is uncertain and spatially explicit information about the distribution of CA required for various modeling studies is missing. Here, we present an approach to downscale present-day national-level estimates of CA to a 5 arcminute regular grid, based on multicriteria analysis. We provide a best estimate of CA distribution and an uncertainty range in the form of a low and high estimate of CA distribution, reflecting the inconsistency in CA definitions. We also design two scenarios of the potential future development of CA combining present-day data and an assessment of the potential for implementation using biophysical and socioeconomic factors. By our estimates, 122-215 Mha or 9%-15% of global arable land is currently managed under CA systems. The lower end of the range represents CA as an integrated system of permanent no-tillage, crop residue management and crop rotations, while the high estimate includes a wider range of areas primarily devoted to temporary no-tillage or reduced tillage operations. Our scenario analysis suggests a future potential of CA in the range of 533-1130 Mha (38%-81% of global arable land). Our estimates can be used in various ecosystem modeling applications and are expected to help identifying more realistic climate mitigation and adaptation potentials of agricultural practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography GroupInstitute for Environmental StudiesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Annette L. Hirsch
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZürichZürichSwitzerland
| | - Edouard L. Davin
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZürichZürichSwitzerland
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZürichZürichSwitzerland
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- Environmental Geography GroupInstitute for Environmental StudiesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
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29
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Humphrey V, Zscheischler J, Ciais P, Gudmundsson L, Sitch S, Seneviratne SI. Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage. Nature 2018; 560:628-631. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0424-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 198] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2017] [Accepted: 06/14/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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30
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Wehrli K, Guillod BP, Hauser M, Leclair M, Seneviratne SI. Assessing the Dynamic Versus Thermodynamic Origin of Climate Model Biases. Geophys Res Lett 2018; 45:8471-8479. [PMID: 31031449 PMCID: PMC6473591 DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079220] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2018] [Accepted: 07/06/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Global climate models present systematic biases, among others, a tendency to overestimate hot and dry summers in midlatitude regions. Here we investigate the origin of such biases in the Community Earth System Model. To disentangle the contribution of dynamics and thermodynamics, we perform simulations that include nudging of horizontal wind and compare them to simulations with a free atmosphere. Prescribing the observed large-scale circulation improves the modeled weather patterns as well as many related fields. However, the larger part of the temperature and precipitation biases of the free atmosphere configuration remains after nudging, in particular, for extremes. Our results suggest that thermodynamical processes, including land-atmosphere coupling and atmospheric parameterizations, drive the errors present in Community Earth System Model. Our result may apply to other climate models and highlight the importance of distinguishing thermodynamic and dynamic sources of biases in present-day global climate models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathrin Wehrli
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Benoit P. Guillod
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
- Institute for Environmental Decisions, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Mathias Hauser
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Matthieu Leclair
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
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Seneviratne SI, Rogelj J, Séférian R, Wartenburger R, Allen MR, Cain M, Millar RJ, Ebi KL, Ellis N, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Payne AJ, Schleussner CF, Tschakert P, Warren RF. The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement's aim of 1.5 °C warming. Nature 2018; 558:41-49. [PMID: 29875489 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2017] [Accepted: 04/05/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
The United Nations' Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a '1.5 °C warmer world' may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society's mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.,Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Roland Séférian
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | | | - Myles R Allen
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Michelle Cain
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Richard J Millar
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Neville Ellis
- School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
- Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.,IRITHESys, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Petra Tschakert
- School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Rachel F Warren
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
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32
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Stocker BD, Zscheischler J, Keenan TF, Prentice IC, Peñuelas J, Seneviratne SI. Quantifying soil moisture impacts on light use efficiency across biomes. New Phytol 2018; 218:1430-1449. [PMID: 29604221 PMCID: PMC5969272 DOI: 10.1111/nph.15123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2017] [Accepted: 02/10/2018] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Terrestrial primary productivity and carbon cycle impacts of droughts are commonly quantified using vapour pressure deficit (VPD) data and remotely sensed greenness, without accounting for soil moisture. However, soil moisture limitation is known to strongly affect plant physiology. Here, we investigate light use efficiency, the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to absorbed light. We derive its fractional reduction due to soil moisture (fLUE), separated from VPD and greenness changes, using artificial neural networks trained on eddy covariance data, multiple soil moisture datasets and remotely sensed greenness. This reveals substantial impacts of soil moisture alone that reduce GPP by up to 40% at sites located in sub-humid, semi-arid or arid regions. For sites in relatively moist climates, we find, paradoxically, a muted fLUE response to drying soil, but reduced fLUE under wet conditions. fLUE identifies substantial drought impacts that are not captured when relying solely on VPD and greenness changes and, when seasonally recurring, are missed by traditional, anomaly-based drought indices. Counter to common assumptions, fLUE reductions are largest in drought-deciduous vegetation, including grasslands. Our results highlight the necessity to account for soil moisture limitation in terrestrial primary productivity data products, especially for drought-related assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin D. Stocker
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurich8092Switzerland
- CREAFCerdanyola del VallèsCatalonia08193Spain
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurich8092Switzerland
| | - Trevor F. Keenan
- Earth and Environmental Sciences AreaLawrence Berkeley National LabBerkeleyCA94709USA
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and ManagementUC BerkeleyBerkeleyCA94720USA
| | - I. Colin Prentice
- AXA Chair of Biosphere and Climate ImpactsDepartment of Life SciencesImperial College LondonSilwood Park CampusLondonSL5 7PYUK
| | - Josep Peñuelas
- CREAFCerdanyola del VallèsCatalonia08193Spain
- CSICGlobal Ecology Unit CREAF‐CSIC‐UABBellaterra, Catalonia08193Spain
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33
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Schwingshackl C, Hirschi M, Seneviratne SI. Global Contributions of Incoming Radiation and Land Surface Conditions to Maximum Near-Surface Air Temperature Variability and Trend. Geophys Res Lett 2018; 45:5034-5044. [PMID: 30034042 PMCID: PMC6049911 DOI: 10.1029/2018gl077794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2017] [Revised: 04/27/2018] [Accepted: 05/02/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
The evolution of near-surface air temperature is influenced by various dynamical, radiative, and surface-atmosphere exchange processes whose contributions are still not completely quantified. Applying stepwise multiple linear regression to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations and focusing on radiation (diagnosed by incoming shortwave and incoming longwave radiation) and land surface conditions (diagnosed by soil moisture and albedo) about 79% of the interannual variability and 99% of the multidecadal trend of monthly mean daily maximum temperature over land can be explained. The linear model captures well the temperature variability in middle-to-high latitudes and in regions close to the equator, whereas its explanatory potential is limited in deserts. While radiation is an essential explanatory variable over almost all of the analyzed domain, land surface conditions show a pronounced relation to temperature in some confined regions. These findings highlight that considering local-to-regional processes is crucial for correctly assessing interannual temperature variability and future temperature trends.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Martin Hirschi
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZürichZürichSwitzerland
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34
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Seneviratne SI, Wartenburger R, Guillod BP, Hirsch AL, Vogel MM, Brovkin V, van Vuuren DP, Schaller N, Boysen L, Calvin KV, Doelman J, Greve P, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Krisztin T, Mitchell D, Popp A, Riahi K, Rogelj J, Schleussner CF, Sillmann J, Stehfest E. Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2018; 376:20160450. [PMID: 29610382 PMCID: PMC5897823 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/31/2018] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Richard Wartenburger
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Benoit P Guillod
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
- Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Annette L Hirsch
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Martha M Vogel
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Victor Brovkin
- Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven 3720 AH, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Lena Boysen
- Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Katherine V Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD 20740, USA
| | - Jonathan Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | - Peter Greve
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Petr Havlik
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Tamas Krisztin
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Daniel Mitchell
- School of Geographical Sciences, University Road, Clifton, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Keywan Riahi
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Climate Analytics, Ritterstrasse 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven 3720 AH, The Netherlands
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35
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Hirsch AL, Guillod BP, Seneviratne SI, Beyerle U, Boysen LR, Brovkin V, Davin EL, Doelman JC, Kim H, Mitchell DM, Nitta T, Shiogama H, Sparrow S, Stehfest E, van Vuuren DP, Wilson S. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land. Earths Future 2018; 6:396-409. [PMID: 29938210 PMCID: PMC5993232 DOI: 10.1002/2017ef000744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2017] [Revised: 01/28/2018] [Accepted: 02/07/2018] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts-land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annette L. Hirsch
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Benoit P. Guillod
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
- Institute for Environmental DecisionsEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Urs Beyerle
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Lena R. Boysen
- Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyHamburgGermany
| | - Victor Brovkin
- Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyHamburgGermany
| | - Edouard L. Davin
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | | | - Hyungjun Kim
- Institute of Industrial ScienceThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | | | - Tomoko Nitta
- Institute of Industrial ScienceThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Hideo Shiogama
- Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukubaJapan
| | - Sarah Sparrow
- Oxford e‐Research Centre (OeRC)University of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyDen HaagThe Netherlands
| | - Detlef P. van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyDen HaagThe Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - Simon Wilson
- Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
- Department of Meteorology, NCAS‐CMSUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
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36
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Zscheischler J, Seneviratne SI. Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Sci Adv 2017; 3:e1700263. [PMID: 28782010 PMCID: PMC5489265 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2017] [Accepted: 05/15/2017] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. However, risks assessments generally focus on univariate statistics. We analyze the co-occurrence of hot and dry summers and show that these are correlated, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and dry summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics. Our results demonstrate how the dependence structure between variables affects the occurrence frequency of multivariate extremes. Assessments based on univariate statistics can thus strongly underestimate risks associated with given extremes, if impacts depend on multiple (dependent) variables. We conclude that a multivariate perspective is necessary to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts and to design adaptation strategies.
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37
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Marotzke J, Jakob C, Bony S, Dirmeyer PA, O’Gorman PA, Hawkins E, Perkins-Kirkpatrick S, Nowicki S, Paulavets K, Seneviratne SI, Stevens B, Tuma M. Climate research must sharpen its view. Nat Clim Chang 2017; 7:89-91. [PMID: 29599824 PMCID: PMC5871430 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Human activity is changing Earth's climate. Now that this has been acknowledged and accepted in international negotiations, climate research needs to define its next frontiers.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Christian Jakob
- Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Level 2, 9 Rainforest Walk, Clayton Campus, Wellington Road, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia
| | - Sandrine Bony
- Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), CNRS/UPMC, Sorbonne University, Tour 45-55, 3eme etage; 4 place Jussieu, boite 99 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France
| | - Paul A. Dirmeyer
- Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Mail Stop: 6C5, Fairfax, Virginia 22030, USA and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Mail Stop: 6C5, Fairfax, Virginia 22030, USA
| | - Paul A. O’Gorman
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Room 54-1712, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139-4307, USA
| | - Ed Hawkins
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
| | - Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
- Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. Corinne Le Quéré is at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Sophie Nowicki
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Cryospheric Sciences Lab, Mail Code: 615, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
| | - Katsia Paulavets
- International Council for Science (ICSU), 5 rue Auguste Vacquerie, Paris 75116, France
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, CHN N11, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich 8092, Switzerland
| | - Bjorn Stevens
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Matthias Tuma
- WCRP Joint Planning Staff, World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), 7bis, avenue de la Paix, Case postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland
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38
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Thiery W, Davin EL, Seneviratne SI, Bedka K, Lhermitte S, van Lipzig NPM. Hazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake Victoria. Nat Commun 2016; 7:12786. [PMID: 27658848 PMCID: PMC5036145 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2016] [Accepted: 08/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria, where thousands of fishermen die every year because of intense night-time thunderstorms. Yet how these thunderstorms will evolve in a future warmer climate is still unknown. Here we show that Lake Victoria is projected to be a hotspot of future extreme precipitation intensification by using new satellite-based observations, a high-resolution climate projection for the African Great Lakes and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Land precipitation on the previous day exerts a control on night-time occurrence of extremes on the lake by enhancing atmospheric convergence (74%) and moisture availability (26%). The future increase in extremes over Lake Victoria is about twice as large relative to surrounding land under a high-emission scenario, as only over-lake moisture advection is high enough to sustain Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Our results highlight a major hazard associated with climate change over East Africa and underline the need for high-resolution projections to assess local climate change. Thunderstorm activity over Lake Victoria poses a threat to human life, yet little is known about their evolution under climate change. Here, using satellite observations and high-resolution modelling, the authors project an increase in precipitation extremes over Lake Victoria, twice that of surrounding land.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wim Thiery
- KU Leuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Leuven, Belgium.,ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Edouard L Davin
- ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Kristopher Bedka
- NASA Langley Research Center, Science Directorate, 21 Langley Boulevard, Hampton, Virginia 23681, USA
| | - Stef Lhermitte
- KU Leuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Leuven, Belgium.,Delft University of Technology, Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Stevinweg 1, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands
| | - Nicole P M van Lipzig
- KU Leuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
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39
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Zscheischler J, Fatichi S, Wolf S, Blanken PD, Bohrer G, Clark K, Desai AR, Hollinger D, Keenan T, Novick KA, Seneviratne SI. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes. J Geophys Res Biogeosci 2016; 121:2186-2198. [PMID: 27774367 PMCID: PMC5054815 DOI: 10.1002/2016jg003503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2016] [Revised: 07/29/2016] [Accepted: 08/02/2016] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence of favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the "most active hours/days" (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jakob Zscheischler
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Simone Fatichi
- Institute of Environmental EngineeringETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Sebastian Wolf
- Institute of Agricultural SciencesETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Peter D. Blanken
- Department of GeographyUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Gil Bohrer
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic EngineeringOhio State UniversityColumbusOhioUSA
| | - Kenneth Clark
- USDA Forest ServiceNorthern Research StationNew LisbonNew JerseyUSA
| | - Ankur R. Desai
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - David Hollinger
- USDA Forest ServiceNorthern Research StationDurhamNew HampshireUSA
| | | | - Kimberly A. Novick
- School of Public and Environmental AffairsIndiana University, BloomingtonBloomingtonIndianaUSA
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40
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Orth R, Zscheischler J, Seneviratne SI. Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe. Sci Rep 2016; 6:28334. [PMID: 27323864 PMCID: PMC4914956 DOI: 10.1038/srep28334] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2016] [Accepted: 06/02/2016] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20th century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21st century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901–2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21st century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.
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Affiliation(s)
- René Orth
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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41
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Mystakidis S, Davin EL, Gruber N, Seneviratne SI. Constraining future terrestrial carbon cycle projections using observation-based water and carbon flux estimates. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:2198-215. [PMID: 26732346 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2015] [Revised: 10/20/2015] [Accepted: 11/12/2015] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
The terrestrial biosphere is currently acting as a sink for about a third of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the future fate of this sink in the coming decades is very uncertain, as current earth system models (ESMs) simulate diverging responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to upcoming climate change. Here, we use observation-based constraints of water and carbon fluxes to reduce uncertainties in the projected terrestrial carbon cycle response derived from simulations of ESMs conducted as part of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find in the ESMs a clear linear relationship between present-day evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP), as well as between these present-day fluxes and projected changes in GPP, thus providing an emergent constraint on projected GPP. Constraining the ESMs based on their ability to simulate present-day ET and GPP leads to a substantial decrease in the projected GPP and to a ca. 50% reduction in the associated model spread in GPP by the end of the century. Given the strong correlation between projected changes in GPP and in NBP in the ESMs, applying the constraints on net biome productivity (NBP) reduces the model spread in the projected land sink by more than 30% by 2100. Moreover, the projected decline in the land sink is at least doubled in the constrained ensembles and the probability that the terrestrial biosphere is turned into a net carbon source by the end of the century is strongly increased. This indicates that the decline in the future land carbon uptake might be stronger than previously thought, which would have important implications for the rate of increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration and for future climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefanos Mystakidis
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
- Center for Climate Systems Modeling, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Edouard L Davin
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Nicolas Gruber
- Center for Climate Systems Modeling, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
- Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
- Center for Climate Systems Modeling, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
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Humphrey V, Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI. Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends, Seasonal Cycle, Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes. Surv Geophys 2016; 37:357-395. [PMID: 27471333 PMCID: PMC4944666 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-016-9367-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2015] [Accepted: 01/29/2016] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincent Humphrey
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Lukas Gudmundsson
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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Frank D, Reichstein M, Bahn M, Thonicke K, Frank D, Mahecha MD, Smith P, van der Velde M, Vicca S, Babst F, Beer C, Buchmann N, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Cramer W, Ibrom A, Miglietta F, Poulter B, Rammig A, Seneviratne SI, Walz A, Wattenbach M, Zavala MA, Zscheischler J. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:2861-80. [PMID: 25752680 PMCID: PMC4676934 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 219] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2013] [Accepted: 01/24/2015] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dorothea Frank
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry07745, Jena, Germany
- Correspondence: Dorothea Frank, tel. + 49 3641 576284, fax + 49 3641 577200, e-mail:
| | | | - Michael Bahn
- Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck6020, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Kirsten Thonicke
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e.V.14773, Potsdam, Germany
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB)14195, Berlin, Germany
| | - David Frank
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of BernCH-3012, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK
| | - Marijn van der Velde
- Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Sara Vicca
- Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Biology Department, University of AntwerpWilrijk, Belgium
| | - Flurin Babst
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e.V.14773, Potsdam, Germany
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona1215 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Christian Beer
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry07745, Jena, Germany
- Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry (ACES), Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere FlagshipGPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Philippe Ciais
- IPSL – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement CEA-CNRS-UVSQ91191, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Wolfgang Cramer
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon UniversitéAix-en-Provence, France
| | - Andreas Ibrom
- Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark (DTU)Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Franco Miglietta
- IBIMET-CNRVia Caproni, 8, 50145, Firenze, Italy
- FoxLab, Fondazione E.MachVia Mach 1, 30158, San Michele a/Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Ben Poulter
- IPSL – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement CEA-CNRS-UVSQ91191, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Anja Rammig
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of BernCH-3012, Bern, Switzerland
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK
| | | | - Ariane Walz
- Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam14476, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Martin Wattenbach
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre For Geosciences14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Miguel A Zavala
- Forest Ecology and Restoration Group, Universidad de AlcaláAlcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
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Guillod BP, Orlowsky B, Miralles DG, Teuling AJ, Seneviratne SI. Reconciling spatial and temporal soil moisture effects on afternoon rainfall. Nat Commun 2015; 6:6443. [PMID: 25740589 PMCID: PMC4366536 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7443] [Citation(s) in RCA: 213] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2014] [Accepted: 01/29/2015] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Soil moisture impacts on precipitation have been strongly debated. Recent observational evidence of afternoon rain falling preferentially over land parcels that are drier than the surrounding areas (negative spatial effect), contrasts with previous reports of a predominant positive temporal effect. However, whether spatial effects relating to soil moisture heterogeneity translate into similar temporal effects remains unknown. Here we show that afternoon precipitation events tend to occur during wet and heterogeneous soil moisture conditions, while being located over comparatively drier patches. Using remote-sensing data and a common analysis framework, spatial and temporal correlations with opposite signs are shown to coexist within the same region and data set. Positive temporal coupling might enhance precipitation persistence, while negative spatial coupling tends to regionally homogenize land surface conditions. Although the apparent positive temporal coupling does not necessarily imply a causal relationship, these results reconcile the notions of moisture recycling with local, spatially negative feedbacks. The sign of soil moisture–precipitation feedback has been strongly debated. Here, the authors show that rain tends to fall where soils are drier than their surroundings, but on days with overall wet and heterogeneous conditions, explaining the apparent contradictions between recent studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benoit P Guillod
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Boris Orlowsky
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Diego G Miralles
- 1] Department of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam 1081 HV, The Netherlands [2] Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, Department of Forest and Water Management, Ghent University, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium
| | - Adriaan J Teuling
- Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen 6708PA, The Netherlands
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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Mueller B, Seneviratne SI. Systematic land climate and evapotranspiration biases in CMIP5 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 2014; 41:128-134. [PMID: 26074635 PMCID: PMC4459216 DOI: 10.1002/2013gl058055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2013] [Revised: 11/27/2013] [Accepted: 12/03/2013] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
[1] Land climate is important for human population since it affects inhabited areas. Here we evaluate the realism of simulated evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, and temperature in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble on continental areas. For ET, a newly compiled synthesis data set prepared within the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment-sponsored LandFlux-EVAL project is used. The results reveal systematic ET biases in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, with an overestimation in most regions, especially in Europe, Africa, China, Australia, Western North America, and part of the Amazon region. The global average overestimation amounts to 0.17 mm/d. This bias is more pronounced than in the previous CMIP3 ensemble (overestimation of 0.09 mm/d). Consistent with the ET overestimation, precipitation is also overestimated relative to existing reference data sets. We suggest that the identified biases in ET can explain respective systematic biases in temperature in many of the considered regions. The biases additionally display a seasonal dependence and are generally of opposite sign (ET underestimation and temperature overestimation) in boreal summer (June-August).
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Affiliation(s)
- B Mueller
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH ZurichZurich, Switzerland
- Climate Research Division, Environment CanadaToronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - S I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH ZurichZurich, Switzerland
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Abstract
Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance. Hot extremes have been shown to be induced by surface moisture deficits in some regions. In this study, we assess whether such a relationship holds at the global scale. We find that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions' hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. The occurrence probability of an above-average number of hot days is over 70% after precipitation deficits in most parts of South America as well as the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Australia, and over 60% in most of North America and Eastern Europe, while it is below 30-40% after wet conditions in these regions. Using quantile regression analyses, we show that the impact of precipitation deficits on the number of hot days is asymmetric, i.e. extreme high numbers of hot days are most strongly influenced. This relationship also applies to the 2011 extreme event in Texas. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brigitte Mueller
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenössiche Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenössiche Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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Rietkerk M, Brovkin V, van Bodegom PM, Claussen M, Dekker SC, Dijkstra HA, Goryachkin SV, Kabat P, van Nes EH, Neutel AM, Nicholson SE, Nobre C, Petoukhov V, Provenzale A, Scheffer M, Seneviratne SI. Local ecosystem feedbacks and critical transitions in the climate. Ecological Complexity 2011. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2011.03.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Mahecha MD, Reichstein M, Carvalhais N, Lasslop G, Lange H, Seneviratne SI, Vargas R, Ammann C, Arain MA, Cescatti A, Janssens IA, Migliavacca M, Montagnani L, Richardson AD. Response to Comment on “Global Convergence in the Temperature Sensitivity of Respiration at Ecosystem Level”. Science 2011. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1197033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Miguel D. Mahecha
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Zurich Universitätsstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | | | - Nuno Carvalhais
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
- Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, FCT, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829–516 Caparica, Portugal
| | - Gitta Lasslop
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Holger Lange
- Norsk Institutt for Skog og Landskap, N–1431 Ås, Norway
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Zurich Universitätsstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Rodrigo Vargas
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, CICESE, Carretera Ensenada–Tijuana No. 3918, Zona Playitas, C.P. 22860, Ensenada, Mexico
| | - Christof Ammann
- Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon, Federal Research Station, Reckenholzstrasse 191, CH–8046 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - M. Altaf Arain
- School of Geography and Earth Sciences and McMaster Centre for Climate Change, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Alessandro Cescatti
- European Commission, Joint Research Center, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
| | - Ivan A. Janssens
- Department of Biology, University of Antwerpen, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Mirco Migliavacca
- European Commission, Joint Research Center, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
- Remote Sensing of Environmental Dynamics Laboratory, Dipartimento di Scienze dell’Ambiente e del Territorio, University of Milano–Bicocca, Milano, Italy
| | - Leonardo Montagnani
- Servizi Forestali, Agenzia per l’Ambiente, Provincia Autonoma di Bolzano, Bolzano, Italy
- Faculty of Sciences and Technologies, Free University of Bozen–Bolzano, Piazza Università 1, 39100, Bolzano, Italy
| | - Andrew D. Richardson
- Harvard University Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University Herbaria, 22 Divinity Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
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Mittelbach H, Casini F, Lehner I, Teuling AJ, Seneviratne SI. Soil moisture monitoring for climate research: Evaluation of a low-cost sensor in the framework of the Swiss Soil Moisture Experiment (SwissSMEX) campaign. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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