Utilisation and impact of predict prostate on decision-making among clinicians and patients in a specialist tertiary referral centre: A retrospective cohort study

Background

Patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer are faced with the decision of whether to undergo radical treatment. Decision-making aids, such as Predict Prostate, can empower both clinicians and patients to make treatment decisions with personalised information, but their impact on multi-disciplinary team (MDT) decision-making and uptake of radical treatment remains unknown.

Objective

The objective of this study is to assess the utilisation and utility of Predict Prostate in informing treatment decisions for patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Cambridge University Hospitals (CUH) of patients referred to the prostate cancer specialist multi-disciplinary team (pcSMDT) and robotic prostatectomy clinic (ROPD) between September 2019 and August 2021 for consideration of radical prostatectomy (RARP). Data on patient characteristics, use of PredictProstate and management decisions were collected from the Epic electronic medical record (EMR) of 839 patients, of whom 386 had intermediate-risk prostate cancer.

Results

The use of Predict Prostate at the pcSMDT increased in the second half of the study period (34.5% vs. 23.8%, p < 0.001). The use of Predict Prostate was associated with an increased likelihood of attending ROPD for men with CPG2 prostate cancer (OR = 2.155, 95% CI = 1.158-4.013, p = 0.015) but a reduced likelihood of proceeding with RARP for men with CPG2 (OR = 0.397, 95% CI = 0.209-0.753, p = 0.005) and CPG3 (OR = 0.305, 95% CI = 0.108-0.861, p = 0.025) prostate cancer.

Conclusion

Our study showed that the use of Predict Prostate for patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer is associated with increased attendance at specialist surgical clinic and a reduced chance of undergoing radical prostate surgery.

Shifting the paradigm in the management of early prostate cancer

Outcomes from active surveillance have clearly shown that it is the optimal method of managing many early prostate cancers. Yet, clinician training and healthcare systems are still primarily focused on the "need to treat". This comment explores the challenges and resource issues in future implementation of high-quality surveillance programmes.

Genomic evolution shapes prostate cancer disease type

The development of cancer is an evolutionary process involving the sequential acquisition of genetic alterations that disrupt normal biological processes, enabling tumor cells to rapidly proliferate and eventually invade and metastasize to other tissues. We investigated the genomic evolution of prostate cancer through the application of three separate classification methods, each designed to investigate a different aspect of tumor evolution. Integrating the results revealed the existence of two distinct types of prostate cancer that arise from divergent evolutionary trajectories, designated as the Canonical and Alternative evolutionary disease types. We therefore propose the evotype model for prostate cancer evolution wherein Alternative-evotype tumors diverge from those of the Canonical-evotype through the stochastic accumulation of genetic alterations associated with disruptions to androgen receptor DNA binding. Our model unifies many previous molecular observations, providing a powerful new framework to investigate prostate cancer disease progression.

Germline Sequencing Analysis to Inform Clinical Gene Panel Testing for Aggressive Prostate Cancer

Importance

Germline gene panel testing is recommended for men with advanced prostate cancer (PCa) or a family history of cancer. While evidence is limited for some genes currently included in panel testing, gene panels are also likely to be incomplete and missing genes that influence PCa risk and aggressive disease.

Objective

To identify genes associated with aggressive PCa.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A 2-stage exome sequencing case-only genetic association study was conducted including men of European ancestry from 18 international studies. Data analysis was performed from January 2021 to March 2023. Participants were 9185 men with aggressive PCa (including 6033 who died of PCa and 2397 with confirmed metastasis) and 8361 men with nonaggressive PCa.

Exposure

Sequencing data were evaluated exome-wide and in a focused investigation of 29 DNA repair pathway and cancer susceptibility genes, many of which are included on gene panels.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary study outcomes were aggressive (category T4 or both T3 and Gleason score ≥8 tumors, metastatic PCa, or PCa death) vs nonaggressive PCa (category T1 or T2 and Gleason score ≤6 tumors without known recurrence), and metastatic vs nonaggressive PCa.

Results

A total of 17 546 men of European ancestry were included in the analyses; mean (SD) age at diagnosis was 65.1 (9.2) years in patients with aggressive PCa and 63.7 (8.0) years in those with nonaggressive disease. The strongest evidence of association with aggressive or metastatic PCa was noted for rare deleterious variants in known PCa risk genes BRCA2 and ATM (P ≤ 1.9 × 10-6), followed by NBN (P = 1.7 × 10-4). This study found nominal evidence (P < .05) of association with rare deleterious variants in MSH2, XRCC2, and MRE11A. Five other genes had evidence of greater risk (OR≥2) but carrier frequency differences between aggressive and nonaggressive PCa were not statistically significant: TP53, RAD51D, BARD1, GEN1, and SLX4. Deleterious variants in these 11 candidate genes were carried by 2.3% of patients with nonaggressive, 5.6% with aggressive, and 7.0% with metastatic PCa.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study provide further support for DNA repair and cancer susceptibility genes to better inform disease management in men with PCa and for extending testing to men with nonaggressive disease, as men carrying deleterious alleles in these genes are likely to develop more advanced disease.

Fifteen-Year Outcomes after Monitoring, Surgery, or Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

Between 1999 and 2009 in the United Kingdom, 82,429 men between 50 and 69 years of age received a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test. Localized prostate cancer was diagnosed in 2664 men. Of these men, 1643 were enrolled in a trial to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments, with 545 randomly assigned to receive active monitoring, 553 to undergo prostatectomy, and 545 to undergo radiotherapy.

METHODS

At a median follow-up of 15 years (range, 11 to 21), we compared the results in this population with respect to death from prostate cancer (the primary outcome) and death from any cause, metastases, disease progression, and initiation of long-term androgen-deprivation therapy (secondary outcomes).

RESULTS

Follow-up was complete for 1610 patients (98%). A risk-stratification analysis showed that more than one third of the men had intermediate or high-risk disease at diagnosis. Death from prostate cancer occurred in 45 men (2.7%): 17 (3.1%) in the active-monitoring group, 12 (2.2%) in the prostatectomy group, and 16 (2.9%) in the radiotherapy group (P = 0.53 for the overall comparison). Death from any cause occurred in 356 men (21.7%), with similar numbers in all three groups. Metastases developed in 51 men (9.4%) in the active-monitoring group, in 26 (4.7%) in the prostatectomy group, and in 27 (5.0%) in the radiotherapy group. Long-term androgen-deprivation therapy was initiated in 69 men (12.7%), 40 (7.2%), and 42 (7.7%), respectively; clinical progression occurred in 141 men (25.9%), 58 (10.5%), and 60 (11.0%), respectively. In the active-monitoring group, 133 men (24.4%) were alive without any prostate cancer treatment at the end of follow-up. No differential effects on cancer-specific mortality were noted in relation to the baseline PSA level, tumor stage or grade, or risk-stratification score. No treatment complications were reported after the 10-year analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

After 15 years of follow-up, prostate cancer-specific mortality was low regardless of the treatment assigned. Thus, the choice of therapy involves weighing trade-offs between benefits and harms associated with treatments for localized prostate cancer. (Funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research; ProtecT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN20141297; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02044172.).

Patient-Reported Outcomes 12 Years after Localized Prostate Cancer Treatment

Outcomes after Localized Prostate Cancer TreatmentDonovan et al. present the long-term patient-reported outcomes of 1643 randomly assigned participants in the ProtecT (Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment) trial. Functional and quality-of-life impacts of prostatectomy, radiotherapy with neoadjuvant androgen deprivation, and active monitoring are described. Over the trial period from 7 to 12 years, generic quality-of-life scores were similar among all groups, with varying degrees of impact on urinary leakage, sexual function, and fecal leakage depending on the treatment group.

Clonal hematopoiesis and risk of prostate cancer in large samples of European ancestry men

Little is known regarding the potential relationship between clonal hematopoiesis (CH) of indeterminate potential (CHIP), which is the expansion of hematopoietic stem cells with somatic mutations, and risk of prostate cancer, the fifth leading cause of cancer death of men worldwide. We evaluated the association of age-related CHIP with overall and aggressive prostate cancer risk in two large whole-exome sequencing studies of 75 047 European ancestry men, including 7663 prostate cancer cases, 2770 of which had aggressive disease, and 3266 men carrying CHIP variants. We found that CHIP, defined by over 50 CHIP genes individually and in aggregate, was not significantly associated with overall (aggregate HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.76-1.13, P = 0.46) or aggressive (aggregate OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 0.92-1.41, P = 0.22) prostate cancer risk. CHIP was weakly associated with genetic risk of overall prostate cancer, measured using a polygenic risk score (OR = 1.05 per unit increase, 95% CI = 1.01-1.10, P = 0.01). CHIP was not significantly associated with carrying pathogenic/likely pathogenic/deleterious variants in DNA repair genes, which have previously been found to be associated with aggressive prostate cancer. While findings from this study suggest that CHIP is likely not a risk factor for prostate cancer, it will be important to investigate other types of CH in association with prostate cancer risk.

Dynamic partitioning of branched-chain amino acids-derived nitrogen supports renal cancer progression

Metabolic reprogramming is critical for tumor initiation and progression. However, the exact impact of specific metabolic changes on cancer progression is poorly understood. Here, we integrate multimodal analyses of primary and metastatic clonally-related clear cell renal cancer cells (ccRCC) grown in physiological media to identify key stage-specific metabolic vulnerabilities. We show that a VHL loss-dependent reprogramming of branched-chain amino acid catabolism sustains the de novo biosynthesis of aspartate and arginine enabling tumor cells with the flexibility of partitioning the nitrogen of the amino acids depending on their needs. Importantly, we identify the epigenetic reactivation of argininosuccinate synthase (ASS1), a urea cycle enzyme suppressed in primary ccRCC, as a crucial event for metastatic renal cancer cells to acquire the capability to generate arginine, invade in vitro and metastasize in vivo. Overall, our study uncovers a mechanism of metabolic flexibility occurring during ccRCC progression, paving the way for the development of novel stage-specific therapies.

Mapping single-cell transcriptomes in the intra-tumoral and associated territories of kidney cancer

Tumor behavior is intricately dependent on the oncogenic properties of cancer cells and their multi-cellular interactions. To understand these dependencies within the wider microenvironment, we studied over 270,000 single-cell transcriptomes and 100 microdissected whole exomes from 12 patients with kidney tumors, prior to validation using spatial transcriptomics. Tissues were sampled from multiple regions of the tumor core, the tumor-normal interface, normal surrounding tissues, and peripheral blood. We find that the tissue-type location of CD8+ T cell clonotypes largely defines their exhaustion state with intra-tumoral spatial heterogeneity that is not well explained by somatic heterogeneity. De novo mutation calling from single-cell RNA-sequencing data allows us to broadly infer the clonality of stromal cells and lineage-trace myeloid cell development. We report six conserved meta-programs that distinguish tumor cell function, and find an epithelial-mesenchymal transition meta-program highly enriched at the tumor-normal interface that co-localizes with IL1B-expressing macrophages, offering a potential therapeutic target.

181 Service Evaluation of the Utilisation and Impact of PredictProstate on Clinical Decision-Making in a Prostate Cancer Specialist Multidisciplinary Service

Aim

Patients with low and intermediate risk prostate cancer must decide whether to undergo radical treatment. The PredictProstate tool uses patient characteristics to quantify the relative benefit of radical treatment. It has been introduced in our prostate cancer specialist multidisciplinary team meeting (pcSMDT) and in subsequent communication with patients to facilitate informed decision-making. The aim of this study was to assess the utilisation and utility of PredictProstate in informing treatment decisions for men referred to Cambridge University Hospitals (CUH) for consideration of radical prostatectomy (RARP).

Method

A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients referred to the CUH pcSMDT and robotic prostatectomy clinic (ROPD) between Sep 2019 and Aug 2021 for consideration of RARP. Data on patient characteristics, use of PredictProstate, and management decisions was collected from the EPIC EMR. A total of 841 patients were included in the analysis.

Results

The usage of PredictProstate in the pcSMDT increased in the second half of the study period (34.5% vs 23.8%, p&lt;0.001). The use of PredictProstate for men with low and intermediate risk prostate cancer was associated with an increased likelihood of attending ROPD (75% vs 61%, p&lt;0.001), but a reduced likelihood of RARP (41% vs 55%, p&lt;0.01). These effects were most pronounced for men of favourable intermediate risk (80% vs 63%, p&lt;0.004 and 34% vs 54%, p&lt;0.07 respectively).

Conclusions

PredictProstate provides personalised prognostic data for patients. Its increased use for men with low and intermediate risk prostate cancer is associated with increased attendance at specialist surgical clinic and a reduced chance of undergoing RARP.

Active Surveillance for Men Younger than 60 Years or with Intermediate-risk Localized Prostate Cancer. Descriptive Analyses of Clinical Practice in the Movember GAP3 Initiative

Background

Active surveillance (AS) is a management option for men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer. Opinions differ on whether it is safe to include young men (≤60 yr) or men with intermediate-risk disease.

Objective

To assess whether reasons for discontinuation, treatment choice after AS, and adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (RP; N1, or ≥GG3, or ≥pT3) differ for men ≤60 yr or those with European Association of Urology (EAU) intermediate-risk disease from those for men >60 yr or those with EAU low-risk disease.

Design setting and participants

We analyzed data from 5411 men ≤60 yr and 14 959 men >60 yr, 14 064 men with low-risk cancer, and 2441 men with intermediate-risk cancer, originating from the GAP3 database (21 169 patients/27 cohorts worldwide).

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Cumulative incidence curves were used to estimate the rates of AS discontinuation and treatment choice.

Results and limitations

The probability of discontinuation of AS due to disease progression at 5 yr was similar for men aged ≤60 yr (22%) and those >60 yr (25%), as well as those of any age with low-risk disease (24%) versus those with intermediate-risk disease (24%). Men with intermediate-risk disease are more prone to discontinue AS without evidence of progression than men with low-risk disease (at 1/5 yr: 5.9%/14.2% vs 2.0%/8.8%). Adverse pathology at RP was observed in 32% of men ≤60 yr compared with 36% of men >60 yr (p = 0.029), and in 34% with low-risk disease compared with 40% with intermediate-risk disease (p = 0.048).

Conclusions

Our descriptive analysis of AS practices worldwide showed that the risk of progression during AS is similar across the age and risk groups studied. The proportion of adverse pathology was higher among men >60 yr than among men ≤60 yr. These results suggest that men ≤60 yr and those with EAU intermediate-risk disease should not be excluded from opting for AS as initial management.

Patient summary

Data from 27 international centers reflecting daily clinical practice suggest that younger men or men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer do not hold greater risk for disease progression during active surveillance.

Abstract 688: Multi-stage exome sequencing study of 17,546 aggressive and non-aggressive prostate cancer cases

Rare pathogenic variants in DNA repair genes have been found to influence risk of aggressive prostate cancer. We conducted a large case-only exome sequencing study to further understand the role of rare coding variation in aggressive prostate cancer in a study of 9,185 aggressive (prostate cancer death, metastatic disease, T4, or both T3 and Gleason≥8) and 8,361 non-aggressive cases (T1/T2 and Gleason≤6) of European ancestry from 19 international studies. Stage 1 samples (N=5,545) had whole exome-sequencing, and stage 2 samples (N=12,001) had targeted exome sequencing for 1,459 genes selected based on stage 1 results and previous evidence. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate gene-based tests and the aggregate effect of multiple genes to investigate whether carrying pathogenic/likely pathogenic/deleterious (P/LP/D) variants (18,759 identified) was associated with risk of aggressive prostate cancer, prostate cancer death (N=6,033), or metastatic disease (N=1,730) compared to non-aggressive disease. Gene-based tests were meta-analyzed across stages 1 and 2. BRCA2, ATM, and NBN had the most statistically significant gene-based results: BRCA2 P/LP/D variant carriers had 4.3-fold higher odds of aggressive disease (95% CI=3.15-5.86, P=4x10-20), 4.7-fold higher odds of prostate cancer death (95% CI=3.41-6.59, P=2x10-20), and 5.7-fold higher odds of metastatic disease (95% CI=3.71-8.76, P=2x10-15); ATM P/LP/D variant carriers had 2.2-fold higher odds of aggressive disease (95% CI=1.58-2.99, P=2x10-6), 2.2-fold higher odds of prostate cancer death (95% CI=1.52-3.05, P=2x10-5), and 3.0-fold higher odds of metastatic disease (95% CI=1.93-4.61, P=9x10-7); and NBN P/LP/D variant carriers had 5.9-fold higher odds of metastatic disease (95% CI=2.56-13.84, P=3x10-5). Among potentially novel genes with strong but not exome-wide significant statistical evidence were MMP19, involved in reproduction and metastasis, with carriers having 2.8-fold higher odds of prostate cancer death (95% CI=1.53-5.05, P=8x10-4); PKD2L2, involved in fertility, with carriers having 3.5-fold higher odds of prostate cancer death (95% CI=1.76-7.04, P=5x10-4); and SMPD1, involved in converting sphingomyelin to ceramide, with carriers having 5.3-fold higher odds of metastatic disease (95% CI=1.85-14.98, P=0.002). At least one P/LP/D variant within a subset of 24 previously curated candidate prostate cancer DNA repair genes was carried by 12.8% of aggressive cases (OR=1.48, 95% CI=1.34-1.64, P=3x10-14), 12.6% of cases who died due to prostate cancer (OR=1.47, 95% CI=1.31-1.65, P=3x10-11), and 15.1% of metastatic cases (OR=2.16, 95% CI=1.57-2.16, P=5x10-14) compared to 9.4% of non-aggressive cases. These findings support the importance of rare genetic variation in aggressive prostate cancer risk and may have important implications for prostate cancer risk stratification and screening.

Citation Format: Burcu F. Darst, Ed Saunders, Tokhir Dadaev, Xin Sheng, Peggy Wan, Loreall Pooler, Lucy Y. Xia, Stephen Chanock, Sonja I. Berndt, Susan M. Gapstur, Victoria Stevens, Demetrius Albanes, Stephanie J. Weinstein, Vincent Gnanapragasam, Graham G. Giles, Tu Nguyen-Dumont, Roger L. Milne, Mark M. Pomerantz, Julie A. Schmidt, Ruth C. Travis, Timothy J. Key, Konrad H. Stopsack, Lorelei A. Mucci, William J. Catalona, Beth Marosy, Kurt N. Hetrick, Kimberly F. Doheny, Robert J. MacInnis, Melissa C. Southey, Rosalind A. Eeles, Fredrik Wiklund, Zsofia Kote-Jarai, David V. Conti, Christopher A. Haiman. Multi-stage exome sequencing study of 17,546 aggressive and non-aggressive prostate cancer cases [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 688.

Rare Germline Variants Are Associated with Rapid Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostate Cancer Treatment: A Pan Prostate Cancer Group Study

BACKGROUND

Germline variants explain more than a third of prostate cancer (PrCa) risk, but very few associations have been identified between heritable factors and clinical progression.

OBJECTIVE

To find rare germline variants that predict time to biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical treatment in men with PrCa and understand the genetic factors associated with such progression.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Whole-genome sequencing data from blood DNA were analysed for 850 PrCa patients with radical treatment from the Pan Prostate Cancer Group (PPCG) consortium from the UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, and France. Findings were validated using 383 patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

A total of 15,822 rare (MAF <1%) predicted-deleterious coding germline mutations were identified. Optimal multifactor and univariate Cox regression models were built to predict time to BCR after radical treatment, using germline variants grouped by functionally annotated gene sets. Models were tested for robustness using bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Optimal Cox regression multifactor models showed that rare predicted-deleterious germline variants in "Hallmark" gene sets were consistently associated with altered time to BCR. Three gene sets had a statistically significant association with risk-elevated outcome when modelling all samples: PI3K/AKT/mTOR, Inflammatory response, and KRAS signalling (up). PI3K/AKT/mTOR and KRAS signalling (up) were also associated among patients with higher-grade cancer, as were Pancreas-beta cells, TNFA signalling via NKFB, and Hypoxia, the latter of which was validated in the independent TCGA dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate for the first time that rare deleterious coding germline variants robustly associate with time to BCR after radical treatment, including cohort-independent validation. Our findings suggest that germline testing at diagnosis could aid clinical decisions by stratifying patients for differential clinical management.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Prostate cancer patients with particular genetic mutations have a higher chance of relapsing after initial radical treatment, potentially providing opportunities to identify patients who might need additional treatments earlier.

A Feasibility Study of the Therapeutic Response and Durability of Short-term Androgen-targeted Therapy in Early Prostate Cancer Managed with Surveillance: The Therapeutics in Active Prostate Surveillance (TAPS01) Study

Background

Active surveillance (AS) is a preferred management option for men with prostate cancer with favourable prognosis. However, nearly half of men on AS switch to treatment within 5 years, so therapeutic strategies to prevent or delay disease progression could be considered. The androgen receptor is the pre-eminent oncogenic driver in prostate cancer.

Objective

To explore image-based tumour responses and the patient impact of short-duration androgen-targeted therapy (ATT) to abrogate disease progression during AS.

Design, setting, and participants

Men on AS with Cambridge Prognostic Group 1 & 2 (low and favourable intermediate risk) prostate cancer and lesions visible on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were recruited to an open-label, single-centre, phase 2 feasibility study of short-term ATT (the TAPS01 study).

Intervention

Apalutamide 240 mg was administered for 90 days.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

MRI-measured tumour volume (TV), gland volume (GV), and the TV/GV ratio were calculated at baseline, at day 90 (end of treatment), and at 6- and 18-month follow-up. Quality of life metrics were measured at day 0, day 90, and 6 weeks after ATT.

Results and limitations

Eleven patients (40% of eligible men approached) agreed to participate, of whom nine completed treatment. At day 90, the median percentage reduction was −38.2% (range −51.8% to −23.5%) for GV, −54.2% (range −74.1% to −13.8%) for TV, and −27.2% (range −61.5% to −7.5%) for TV/GV (all p < 0.0001). At 6 mo, while GV had returned to baseline (p = 0.95) both TV (−31.9%; p = 0.0007) and TV/GV (−28.7%; p = 0.0009) remained significantly reduced. This reduction was sustained at 18 months (TV −18%, TV/GV −23.8%; p = 0.01). European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QoL core 30-item questionnaire scores for global, physical, role, and social functioning decreased during treatment, but all were recovering by 6 weeks. EQ-VAS scores were unchanged compared to baseline.

Conclusions

TAPS01 has demonstrated feasibility and patient tolerability for short-term ATT in men on AS. Our data suggest a selective and durable antitumour effect in the short term and support a larger-scale randomised trial.

Patient summary

We investigated the feasibility of short-term treatment with an androgen inhibitor to prevent or delay disease progression for men on active surveillance for prostate cancer. Results for a small group of patients show that 90-day treatment led to a sustained decrease in tumour volume over 18 months. The findings warrant a larger clinical trial for this approach, which could allow patients to delay or even avoid longer-term active treatments.

281 Impact of Using Risk Communication Tools in Counselling Patients with Newly Diagnosed Non-Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Introduction

There have been substantial advances in risk communication tools that help patients understand prognosis associated with prostate cancer and the benefit/gain from treatment. Over the last three years, two tools; Cambridge Prognostic Groups (CPG), and Predict Prostate (https://prostate.predict.nhs.uk), along with decision-making consultations with clinical nurse specialists (CNS) have been integrated into the new diagnosis pathway in our unit.

Method

Treatment decisions for patients with new non-metastatic prostate cancer were audited after (2019–2020) and before (2016–2017) new risk communication tools were implemented. Data were compared between the two time periods and also benchmarked against national level data from the National Prostate Cancer Audit (NPCA) (Parry et al 2020; PMID: 32460859). The main outcome measured was comparison of rates of over and under-treatment of disease.

Results

168 and 95 patients were included in the 2019–2020 and 2016–2017 cohorts, respectively. Following implementation there was a reduction in over-treatment (use of radical surgery/radiotherapy) in patients with low risk/CPG1 (23% to 4%). These rates were also better than the national average from NPCA data (4% vs 11%). In parallel, there was an increase in use of radical treatment (reduced under-treatment) in high risk and very high-risk/CPG4-5 disease (84% vs 73%). Again, these rates were also superior to national level data from the NPCA (84% vs 76%).

Conclusions

Incorporating personalised risk-communication tools and dedicated CNS counselling in our unit has reduced over-treatment of early disease and under-treatment of advanced disease. Wider uptake could enhance risk-appropriate treatment of patients with a new prostate cancer diagnosis.

Prostate Cancer Patients Under Active Surveillance with a Suspicious Magnetic Resonance Imaging Finding Are at Increased Risk of Needing Treatment: Results of the Movember Foundation's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance (GAP3) Consortium

BACKGROUND

The inclusion criterion for active surveillance (AS) is low- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer. The predictive value of the presence of a suspicious lesion at magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at the time of inclusion is insufficiently known.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the percentage of patients needing active treatment stratified by the presence or absence of a suspicious lesion at baseline MRI.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective analysis of the data from the multicentric AS GAP3 Consortium database was conducted. The inclusion criteria were men with grade group (GG) 1 or GG 2 prostate cancer combined with prostate-specific antigen <20 ng/ml. We selected a subgroup of patients who had MRI at baseline and for whom MRI results and targeted biopsies were used for AS eligibility. Suspicious MRI was defined as an MRI lesion with Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS)/Likert ≥3 and for which targeted biopsies did not exclude the patient for AS.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The primary outcome was treatment free survival (FS). The secondary outcomes were histological GG progression FS and continuation of AS (discontinuation FS).

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

The study cohort included 2119 patients (1035 men with nonsuspicious MRI and 1084 with suspicious MRI) with a median follow-up of 23 (12-43) mo. For the whole cohort, 3-yr treatment FS was 71% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 69-74). For nonsuspicious MRI and suspicious MRI groups, 3-yr treatment FS rates were, respectively, 80% (95% CI: 77-83) and 63% (95% CI: 59-66). Active treatment (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.0, p < 0.001), grade progression (HR = 1.9, p < 0.001), and discontinuation of AS (HR = 1.7, p < 0.001) were significantly higher in the suspicious MRI group than in the nonsuspicious MRI group.

CONCLUSIONS

The risks of switching to treatment, histological progression, and AS discontinuation are higher in cases of suspicious MRI at inclusion.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Among men with low- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer who choose active surveillance, those with suspicious magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at the time of inclusion in active surveillance are more likely to show switch to treatment than men with nonsuspicious MRI.

Resolving the immune landscape of human prostate at a single-cell level in health and cancer

The prostate gland produces prostatic fluid, high in zinc and citrate and essential for the maintenance of spermatozoa. Prostate cancer is a common condition with limited treatment efficacy in castration-resistant metastatic disease, including with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Using single-cell RNA-sequencing to perform an unbiased assessment of the cellular landscape of human prostate, we identify a subset of tumor-enriched androgen receptor-negative luminal epithelial cells with increased expression of cancer-associated genes. We also find a variety of innate and adaptive immune cells in normal prostate that were transcriptionally perturbed in prostate cancer. An exception is a prostate-specific, zinc transporter-expressing macrophage population (MAC-MT) that contributes to tissue zinc accumulation in homeostasis but shows enhanced inflammatory gene expression in tumors, including T cell-recruiting chemokines. Remarkably, enrichment of the MAC-MT signature in cancer biopsies is associated with improved disease-free survival, suggesting beneficial antitumor functions.

Robust and flexible inference for the covariate-specific receiver operating characteristic curve

Diagnostic tests are of critical importance in health care and medical research. Motivated by the impact that atypical and outlying test outcomes might have on the assessment of the discriminatory ability of a diagnostic test, we develop a robust and flexible model for conducting inference about the covariate-specific receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve that safeguards against outlying test results while also accommodating for possible nonlinear effects of the covariates. Specifically, we postulate a location-scale regression model for the test outcomes in both the diseased and nondiseased populations, combining additive regression B-splines and M-estimation for the regression function, while the distribution of the error term is estimated via a weighted empirical distribution function of the standardized residuals. The results of the simulation study show that our approach successfully recovers the true covariate-specific area under the ROC curve on a variety of conceivable test outcomes contamination scenarios. Our method is applied to a dataset derived from a prostate cancer study where we seek to assess the ability of the Prostate Health Index to discriminate between men with and without Gleason 7 or above prostate cancer, and if and how such discriminatory capacity changes with age.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes for patients with non‑metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

This study used linked, routinely-collected datasets to explore incidence, clinical characteristics and outcomes of prostate cancer (PC) patients who experience a rise in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels despite androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), without evidence of metastases in their patient record, termed non-metastatic castration-resistant PC (nmCRPC). Routinely collected administrative data in Wales were used to identify patients diagnosed with PC and nmCRPC from 2000-2015. Logrank tests and Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare time-to-events across subgroups defined by PSA doubling time and age. Of 38,021 patients identified with PC, 1,465 met nmCRPC criteria. PC incidence increased over the study period, while nmCRPC categorizations reduced. Median time from PC diagnosis to nmCRPC categorization was 3.07 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.91-3.26) and from nmCRPC categorization to metastases/death was 2.86 years (95% CI 2.67-3.09). Shorter PSA doubling time (≤ 10 months, versus > 10 months) was associated with reduced time to metastases or death (2.11 years [95% CI 1.92-2.30] versus 5.22 years [95% CI 4.87-5.51]). Age was not significantly associated with time to metastases/death. Our findings highlight key clinical characteristics and outcomes for patients with nmCRPC prior to the introduction of recently approved treatments.

Clinical Impact of the Predict Prostate Risk Communication Tool in Men Newly Diagnosed with Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer: A Multicentre Randomised Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Predict Prostate is a freely available online personalised risk communication tool for men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer. Its accuracy has been assessed in multiple validation studies, but its clinical impact among patients has not hitherto been assessed.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of the tool on patient decision-making and disease perception.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A multicentre randomised controlled trial was performed across eight UK centres among newly diagnosed men considering either active surveillance or radical treatment. A total of 145 patients were included between 2018 and 2020, with median age 67 yr (interquartile range [IQR] 61-72) and prostate-specific antigen 6.8 ng/ml (IQR 5.1-8.8).

INTERVENTION

Participants were randomised to either standard of care (SOC) information or SOC and a structured presentation of the Predict Prostate tool.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Validated questionnaires were completed by assessing the impact of the tool on decisional conflict, uncertainty, anxiety, and perception of survival.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Mean Decisional Conflict Scale scores were 26% lower in the Predict Prostate group (mean = 16.1) than in the SOC group (mean = 21.7; p = 0.027). Scores on the "support", "uncertainty", and "value clarity" subscales all favoured Predict Prostate (all p < 0.05). There was no significant difference in anxiety scores or final treatment selection between the two groups. Patient perception of 15-yr prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) and overall survival benefit from radical treatment were considerably lower and more accurate among men in the Predict Prostate group (p < 0.001). In total, 57% of men reported that the Predict Prostate estimates for PCSM were lower than expected, and 36% reported being less likely to select radical treatment. Over 90% of patients in the intervention group found it useful and 94% would recommend it to others.

CONCLUSIONS

Predict Prostate reduces decisional conflict and uncertainty, and shifts patient perception around prognosis to be more realistic. This randomised trial demonstrates that Predict Prostate can directly inform the complex decision-making process in prostate cancer and is felt to be useful by patients. Future larger trials are warranted to test its impact upon final treatment decisions.

PATIENT SUMMARY

In this national study, we assessed the impact of an individualised risk communication tool, called Predict Prostate, on patient decision-making after a diagnosis of localised prostate cancer. Men were randomly assigned to two groups, which received either standard counselling and information, or this in addition to a structured presentation of the Predict Prostate tool. Men who saw the tool were less conflicted and uncertain in their decision-making, and recommended the tool highly. Those who saw the tool had more realistic perception about their long-term survival and the potential impact of treatment upon this.

TAKE HOME MESSAGE

The use of an individualised risk communication tool, such as Predict Prostate, reduces patient decisional conflict and uncertainty when deciding about treatment for nonmetastatic prostate cancer. The tool leads to more realistic perceptions about survival outcomes and prognosis.

Risk-Based Selection for Active Surveillance: Results of the Movember Foundation's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance (GAP3) Initiative

PURPOSE

We sought to identify and validate known predictors of disease reclassification at 1 or 4 years to support risk-based selection of patients suitable for active surveillance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An individual participant data meta-analysis using data from 25 established cohorts within the Movember Foundations GAP3 Consortium. In total 5,530 men were included. Disease reclassification was defined as any increase in Gleason grade group at biopsy at 1 and 4 years. Associations were estimated using random effect logistic regression models. The discriminative ability of combinations of predictors was assessed in an internal-external validation procedure using the AUC curve.

RESULTS

Among the 5,570 men evaluated at 1 year, we found 815 reclassifications to higher Gleason grade group at biopsy (pooled reclassification rate 13%, range 0% to 31%). Important predictors were age, prostate specific antigen, prostate volume, T-stage and number of biopsy cores with prostate cancer. Among the 1,515 men evaluated at 4 years, we found 205 reclassifications (pooled reclassification rates 14%, range 3% to 40%), with similar predictors. The average areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve at internal-external validation were 0.68 and 0.61 for 1-year and 4-year reclassification, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Disease reclassification occurs typically in 13% to 14% of biopsies at 1 and 4 years after the start of active surveillance with substantial between-study heterogeneity. Current guidelines might be extended by considering prostate volume to improve individualized selection for active surveillance. Additional predictors are needed to improve patient selection for active surveillance.

Using the Movember Foundation's GAP3 cohort to measure the effect of active surveillance on patient-reported urinary and sexual function-a retrospective study in low-risk prostate cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS) for low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is intended to overcome potential side-effects of definitive treatment. Frequent prostate biopsies during AS may, however, impact erectile (EF) and urinary function (UF). The objective of this study was to test the influence of prostate biopsies on patient-reported EF and UF using multicenter data from the largest to-date AS-database.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, data analyses were performed using the Movember GAP3 database (v3.2), containing data from 21,169 AS participants from 27 AS-cohorts worldwide. Participants were included in the study if they had at least one follow-up prostate biopsy and completed at least one patient reported outcome measure (PROM) related to EF [Sexual Health Inventory for Men (SHIM)/five item International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5)] or UF [International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS)] during follow-up. The longitudinal effect of the number of biopsies on either SHIM/IIEF-5 or IPSS were analyzed using linear mixed models to adjust for clustering at patient-level. Analyses were stratified by center; covariates included age and Gleason Grade group at diagnosis, and time on AS.

RESULTS

A total of 696 participants completed the SHIM/IIEF-5 3,175 times, with a median follow-up of 36 months [interquartile range (IQR) 20-55 months]. A total of 845 participants completed the IPSS 4,061 times, with a median follow-up of 35 months (IQR 19-56 months). The intraclass correlation (ICC) was 0.74 for the SHIM/IIEF-5 and 0.68 for the IPSS, indicating substantial differences between participants' PROMs. Limited heterogeneity between cohorts in the estimated effect of the number of biopsies on either PROM were observed. A significant association was observed between the number of biopsies and the SHIM/IIEF-5 score, but not for the IPSS score. Every biopsy was associated with a decrease in the SHIM/IIEF-5 score of an average 0.67 (95% CI, 0.47-0.88) points.

CONCLUSIONS

Repeated prostate biopsy as part of an AS protocol for men with low-risk PCa does not have a significant association with self-reported UF but does impact self-reported sexual function. Further research is, however, needed to understand whether the effect on sexual function implies a negative clinical impact on their quality of life and is meaningful from a patient's perspective. In the meantime, clinicians and patients should anticipate a potential decline in erectile function and hence consider incorporating the risk of this harm into their discussion about opting for AS and also when deciding on the stringency of follow-up biopsy schedules with long-term AS.

A first step towards a global nomogram to predict disease progression for men on active surveillance

BACKGROUND

Signs of disease progression (28%) and conversion to active treatment without evidence of disease progression (13%) are the main reasons for discontinuation of active surveillance (AS) in men with localised prostate cancer (PCa). We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict disease progression in these patients.

METHODS

As a first step in the development of a nomogram, using data from Movembers' GAP3 Consortium (n=14,380), we assessed heterogeneity between centres in terms of risk of disease progression. We started with assessment of baseline hazards for disease progression based on grouping of centres according to follow-up protocols [high: yearly; intermediate: ~2 yearly; and low: at year 1, 4 & 7 (i.e., PRIAS)]. We conducted cause-specific random effect Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate risk of disease progression by centre in each group.

RESULTS

Disease progression rates varied substantially between centres [median hazard ratio (MHR): 2.5]. After adjustment for various clinical factors (age, year of diagnosis, Gleason grade group, number of positive cores and PSA), substantial heterogeneity in disease progression remained between centres.

CONCLUSIONS

When combining worldwide data on AS, we noted unexplained differences of disease progression rate even after adjustment for various clinical factors. This suggests that when developing a global nomogram, local adjustments for differences in risk of disease progression and competing outcomes such as conversion to active treatment need to be considered.

Comparison of initial and second opinion reads of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging of the prostate for transperineal template-guided biopsies with MRI-Ultrasound fusion

PURPOSE

To investigate the value of second-opinion evaluation of multiparametric prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by subspecialised uroradiologists for the detection of significant cancer in transperineal fusion prostate biopsy.

METHODS

The evaluated data included age, PSA (ng/ml), PSA density, Gleason score, digital rectal examination (DRE), prostate volume of 149 patients. Twenty-seven patients (18%) had no previous prostate biopsy, 114 patients (77%) had a previous negative biopsy, and 8 patients (5%) were on active surveillance. Using PI-RADS v2 scores for mpMRI a second report was performed by a specialist uroradiologist. In all cases a subsequent transperineal biopsy was performed with at least 2 cores per target and additional background systemic cores. Initial and second-opinion radiology reports were evaluated for detection of any cancer and Gleason score (GS) 7-10 cancer, including positive predictive value and negative (NPV) and compared by Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

At transperineal biopsy, 51 % (76/149) of patients had a GS 6-10 prostate cancer (PCa), 27 % (40/149) of patients had a GS 3 + 3 PCa and 12 % (18/149) a GS 3 + 4 and 12 % (18/149) had a GS ≥4 + 3 PCa. Agreement between initial and second-opinion reads was observed in 57.7% (86/149; kappa value = 0.32). The detection of clinically significant cancers with second-opinion reads was significantly higher (0.61; 17/28) compared to initial reads (0.35; 17/49); P = 0.034.

CONCLUSIONS

Second reading of prostate mpMRIs by subspecialised uroradiologists significantly improved the positive predictive value for detection of clinically significant prostate cancer and showed a trend towards improved NPV for MRI-negative cases where biopsy could be safely avoided. Urologists should be aware that the experience of the reporter will affect the report when making decisions if and how to obtain biopsies. Reporter experience may help to reduce overcalling and avoid over-targeting of lesions.

Extensive heterogeneity in somatic mutation and selection in the human bladder

The extent of somatic mutation and clonal selection in the human bladder remains unknown. We sequenced 2097 bladder microbiopsies from 20 individuals using targeted (n = 1914 microbiopsies), whole-exome (n = 655), and whole-genome (n = 88) sequencing. We found widespread positive selection in 17 genes. Chromatin remodeling genes were frequently mutated, whereas mutations were absent in several major bladder cancer genes. There was extensive interindividual variation in selection, with different driver genes dominating the clonal landscape across individuals. Mutational signatures were heterogeneous across clones and individuals, which suggests differential exposure to mutagens in the urine. Evidence of APOBEC mutagenesis was found in 22% of the microbiopsies. Sequencing multiple microbiopsies from five patients with bladder cancer enabled comparisons with cancer-free individuals and across histological features. This study reveals a rich landscape of mutational processes and selection in normal urothelium with large heterogeneity across clones and individuals.

The ProtecT randomised trial cost-effectiveness analysis comparing active monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy for prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence relating to the cost-effectiveness of treatments for localised prostate cancer.

METHODS

The cost-effectiveness of active monitoring, surgery, and radiotherapy was evaluated within the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) randomised controlled trial from a UK NHS perspective at 10 years' median follow-up. Prostate cancer resource-use collected from hospital records and trial participants was valued using UK reference-costs. QALYs (quality-adjusted-life-years) were calculated from patient-reported EQ-5D-3L measurements. Adjusted mean costs, QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated; cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analyses addressed uncertainty; subgroup analyses considered age and disease-risk.

RESULTS

Adjusted mean QALYs were similar between groups: 6.89 (active monitoring), 7.09 (radiotherapy), and 6.91 (surgery). Active monitoring had lower adjusted mean costs (£5913) than radiotherapy (£7361) and surgery (£7519). Radiotherapy was the most likely (58% probability) cost-effective option at the UK NICE willingness-to-pay threshold (£20,000 per QALY). Subgroup analyses confirmed radiotherapy was cost-effective for older men and intermediate/high-risk disease groups; active monitoring was more likely to be the cost-effective option for younger men and low-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer follow-up and modelling are required to determine the most cost-effective treatment for localised prostate cancer over a man's lifetime.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN20141297: http://isrctn.org (14/10/2002); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02044172: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov (23/01/2014).

Germline Sequencing DNA Repair Genes in 5545 Men With Aggressive and Nonaggressive Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

There is an urgent need to identify factors specifically associated with aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) risk. We investigated whether rare pathogenic, likely pathogenic, or deleterious (P/LP/D) germline variants in DNA repair genes are associated with aggressive PCa risk in a case-case study of aggressive vs nonaggressive disease.

METHODS

Participants were 5545 European-ancestry men, including 2775 nonaggressive and 2770 aggressive PCa cases, which included 467 metastatic cases (16.9%). Samples were assembled from 12 international studies and germline sequenced together. Rare (minor allele frequency < 0.01) P/LP/D variants were analyzed for 155 DNA repair genes. We compared single variant, gene-based, and DNA repair pathway-based burdens by disease aggressiveness. All statistical tests are 2-sided.

RESULTS

BRCA2 and PALB2 had the most statistically significant gene-based associations, with 2.5% of aggressive and 0.8% of nonaggressive cases carrying P/LP/D BRCA2 alleles (odds ratio [OR] = 3.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.94 to 5.25, P = 8.58 × 10-7) and 0.65% of aggressive and 0.11% of nonaggressive cases carrying P/LP/D PALB2 alleles (OR = 6.31, 95% CI = 1.83 to 21.68, P = 4.79 × 10-4). ATM had a nominal association, with 1.6% of aggressive and 0.8% of nonaggressive cases carrying P/LP/D ATM alleles (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.10 to 3.22, P = .02). In aggregate, P/LP/D alleles within 24 literature-curated candidate PCa DNA repair genes were more common in aggressive than nonaggressive cases (carrier frequencies = 14.2% vs 10.6%, respectively; P = 5.56 × 10-5). However, this difference was non-statistically significant (P = .18) on excluding BRCA2, PALB2, and ATM. Among these 24 genes, P/LP/D carriers had a 1.06-year younger diagnosis age (95% CI = -1.65 to 0.48, P = 3.71 × 10-4).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk conveyed by DNA repair genes is largely driven by rare P/LP/D alleles within BRCA2, PALB2, and ATM. These findings support the importance of these genes in both screening and disease management considerations.

Active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy in PSA-detected clinically localised prostate cancer: the ProtecT three-arm RCT

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men in the UK. Prostate-specific antigen testing followed by biopsy leads to overdetection, overtreatment as well as undertreatment of the disease. Evidence of treatment effectiveness has lacked because of the paucity of randomised controlled trials comparing conventional treatments.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness of conventional treatments for localised prostate cancer (active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy) in men aged 50-69 years.

DESIGN

A prospective, multicentre prostate-specific antigen testing programme followed by a randomised trial of treatment, with a comprehensive cohort follow-up.

SETTING

Prostate-specific antigen testing in primary care and treatment in nine urology departments in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Between 2001 and 2009, 228,966 men aged 50-69 years received an invitation to attend an appointment for information about the Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) study and a prostate-specific antigen test; 82,429 men were tested, 2664 were diagnosed with localised prostate cancer, 1643 agreed to randomisation to active monitoring (n = 545), radical prostatectomy (n = 553) or radical radiotherapy (n = 545) and 997 chose a treatment.

INTERVENTIONS

The interventions were active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy.

TRIAL PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Definite or probable disease-specific mortality at the 10-year median follow-up in randomised participants.

SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall mortality, metastases, disease progression, treatment complications, resource utilisation and patient-reported outcomes.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences between the groups for 17 prostate cancer-specific (p = 0.48) and 169 all-cause (p = 0.87) deaths. Eight men died of prostate cancer in the active monitoring group (1.5 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.7 to 3.0); five died of prostate cancer in the radical prostatectomy group (0.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.2 per 1000 person years) and four died of prostate cancer in the radical radiotherapy group (0.7 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.3 to 2.0 per 1000 person years). More men developed metastases in the active monitoring group than in the radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy groups: active monitoring, n = 33 (6.3 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 4.5 to 8.8); radical prostatectomy, n = 13 (2.4 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2 per 1000 person years); and radical radiotherapy, n = 16 (3.0 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 1.9 to 4.9 per 1000 person-years; p = 0.004). There were higher rates of disease progression in the active monitoring group than in the radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy groups: active monitoring (n = 112; 22.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 19.0 to 27.5 per 1000 person years); radical prostatectomy (n = 46; 8.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 6.7 to 11.9 per 1000 person-years); and radical radiotherapy (n = 46; 9.0 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 6.7 to 12.0 per 1000 person years; p < 0.001). Radical prostatectomy had the greatest impact on sexual function/urinary continence and remained worse than radical radiotherapy and active monitoring. Radical radiotherapy's impact on sexual function was greatest at 6 months, but recovered somewhat in the majority of participants. Sexual and urinary function gradually declined in the active monitoring group. Bowel function was worse with radical radiotherapy at 6 months, but it recovered with the exception of bloody stools. Urinary voiding and nocturia worsened in the radical radiotherapy group at 6 months but recovered. Condition-specific quality-of-life effects mirrored functional changes. No differences in anxiety/depression or generic or cancer-related quality of life were found. At the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the probabilities that each arm was the most cost-effective option were 58% (radical radiotherapy), 32% (active monitoring) and 10% (radical prostatectomy).

LIMITATIONS

A single prostate-specific antigen test and transrectal ultrasound biopsies were used. There were very few non-white men in the trial. The majority of men had low- and intermediate-risk disease. Longer follow-up is needed.

CONCLUSIONS

At a median follow-up point of 10 years, prostate cancer-specific mortality was low, irrespective of the assigned treatment. Radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy reduced disease progression and metastases, but with side effects. Further work is needed to follow up participants at a median of 15 years.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN20141297.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 37. See the National Institute for Health Research Journals Library website for further project information.

Comparative performance and external validation of the multivariable PREDICT Prostate tool for non-metastatic prostate cancer: a study in 69,206 men from Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe)

BACKGROUND

PREDICT Prostate is an endorsed prognostic model that provides individualised long-term prostate cancer-specific and overall survival estimates. The model, derived from UK data, estimates potential treatment benefit on overall survival. In this study, we externally validated the model in a large independent dataset and compared performance to existing models and within treatment groups.

METHODS

Men with non-metastatic prostate cancer and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) < 100 ng/ml diagnosed between 2000 and 2010 in the nationwide population-based Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) were included. Data on age, PSA, clinical stage, grade group, biopsy involvement, primary treatment and comorbidity were retrieved. Sixty-nine thousand two hundred six men were included with 13.9 years of median follow-up. Fifteen-year survival estimates were calculated using PREDICT Prostate for prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) and all-cause mortality (ACM). Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's concordance (c)-index in R. Calibration was evaluated using cumulative available follow-up in Stata (TX, USA).

RESULTS

Overall discrimination of PREDICT Prostate was good with c-indices of 0.85 (95% CI 0.85-0.86) for PCSM and 0.79 (95% CI 0.79-0.80) for ACM. Overall calibration of the model was excellent with 25,925 deaths predicted and 25,849 deaths observed. Within the conservative management and radical treatment groups, c-indices for 15-year PCSM were 0.81 and 0.78, respectively. Calibration also remained good within treatment groups. The discrimination of PREDICT Prostate significantly outperformed the EAU, NCCN and CAPRA scores for both PCSM and ACM within this cohort overall. A key limitation is the use of retrospective cohort data.

CONCLUSIONS

This large external validation demonstrates that PREDICT Prostate is a robust and generalisable model to aid clinical decision-making.

Ten-year Mortality, Disease Progression, and Treatment-related Side Effects in Men with Localised Prostate Cancer from the ProtecT Randomised Controlled Trial According to Treatment Received

BACKGROUND

The ProtecT trial reported intention-to-treat analysis of men with localised prostate cancer (PCa) randomly allocated to active monitoring (AM), radical prostatectomy, and external beam radiotherapy.

OBJECTIVE

To determine report outcomes according to treatment received in men in randomised and treatment choice cohorts.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study focuses on secondary care. Men with clinically localised prostate cancer at one of nine UK centres were invited to participate in the treatment trial comparing AM, radical prostatectomy, and radiotherapy.

INTERVENTION

Two cohorts included 1643 men who agreed to be randomised; 997 declined randomisation and chose treatment.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Health-related quality of life impacts on urinary, bowel, and sexual function were assessed using patient-reported outcome measures. Analysis was carried out based on treatment received for each cohort and on pooled estimates using meta-analysis. Differences were estimated with adjustment for known prognostic factors using propensity scores.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

According to treatment received, more men receiving AM died of PCa (AM 1.85%, surgery 0.67%, radiotherapy 0.73%), whilst this difference remained consistent with chance in the randomised cohort (p=0.08); stronger evidence was found in the exploratory analyses (randomised plus choice cohort) when AM was compared with the combined radical treatment group (p=0.003). There was also strong evidence that metastasis (AM 5.6%, surgery 2.4%, radiotherapy 2.7%) and disease progression (AM 20.35%, surgery 5.87%, radiotherapy 6.62%) were more common in the AM group. Compared with AM, there were higher risks of sexual dysfunction (95% at 6mo) and urinary incontinence (55% at 6mo) after surgery, and of sexual dysfunction (88% at 6mo) and bowel dysfunction (5% at 6mo) after radiotherapy. The key limitations are the potential for bias when comparing groups defined by treatment received and outdating of the interventions being evaluated during the lengthy follow-up required in trials of screen-detected PCa.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses according to treatment received showed increased rates of disease-related events and lower rates of patient-reported harms in men managed by AM compared with men managed by radical treatment, and stronger evidence of greater PCa mortality in the AM group.

PATIENT SUMMARY

More than 90 out of every 100 men with localised prostate cancer do not die of prostate cancer within 10yr, irrespective of whether treatment is by means of monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy. Side effects on sexual and bladder function are much better after active monitoring, but the risks of spreading of prostate cancer are more common.

Adherence to Active Surveillance Protocols for Low-risk Prostate Cancer: Results of the Movember Foundation's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Initiative

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS) enrolment criteria and follow-up schedules for low-risk prostate cancer vary between institutions. However, uncertainty remains about adherence to these protocols.

OBJECTIVE

To determine adherence to institution-specific AS inclusion criteria and follow-up schedules within the Movember Foundation's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance (GAP3) initiative.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We retrospectively assessed the data of 15 101 patients from 25 established AS cohorts worldwide between 2014 and 2016.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Adherence to individual AS inclusion criteria was rated on a five-point Likert scale ranging from poor to excellent. Nonadherence to follow-up schedules was defined as absence of repeat biopsy 1 yr after the scheduled date. Cohorts were pooled into annual and Prostate Cancer Research International: Active Surveillance (PRIAS)-based biopsy schedules, and a generalised linear mixed model was constructed to test for nonadherence.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) inclusion criteria were followed in 92%, Gleason score (GS) criteria were followed in 97%, and the number of positive biopsy cores was followed in 94% of men. Both age and tumour stage (T stage) criteria had 99% adherence overall. Pooled nonadherence rates increased over time-8%, 16%, and 34% for annual schedules and 11%, 30%, and 29% for PRIAS-based schedules at 1, 4, and 7 yr, respectively-and did not differ between biopsy schedules. A limitation is that our results do not consider the use of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging.

CONCLUSIONS

In on-going development of evidence-based AS protocols, variable adherence to PSA and GS inclusion criteria should be considered. Repeat biopsy adherence reduces with increased duration of surveillance, independent of biopsy frequency. This emphasises the importance of risk stratification at the commencement of AS.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We studied adherence to active surveillance protocols for prostate cancer worldwide. We found that inclusion criteria were generally followed well, but adherence to repeat biopsy reduced with time. This should be considered when optimising future active surveillance protocols.

Consistent Biopsy Quality and Gleason Grading Within the Global Active Surveillance Global Action Plan 3 Initiative: A Prerequisite for Future Studies

Within the Movember Foundation's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance (GAP3) initiative, 25 centers across the globe collaborate to standardize active surveillance (AS) protocols for men with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). A centralized PCa AS database, comprising data of more than 15000 patients worldwide, was created. Comparability of the histopathology between the different cohorts was assessed by a centralized pathology review of 445 biopsies from 15 GAP3 centers. Grade group 1 (Gleason score 6) in 85% and grade group ≥2 (Gleason score ≥7) in 15% showed 89% concordance at review with moderate agreement (κ=0.56). Average biopsy core length was similar among the analyzed cohorts. Recently established highly adverse pathologies, including cribriform and/or intraductal carcinoma, were observed in 3.6% of the reviewed biopsies. In conclusion, the centralized pathology review of 445 biopsies revealed comparable histopathology among the 15 GAP3 centers with a low frequency of high-risk features. This enables further data analyses-without correction-toward uniform global AS guidelines for men with low-risk PCa. PATIENT SUMMARY: Movember Foundation's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance (GAP3) initiative combines data from 15000 men with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) across the globe to standardize active surveillance protocols. Histopathology review confirmed that the histopathology was consistent with low-risk PCa in most men and comparable between different centers.

Best practice in active surveillance for men with prostate cancer: a Prostate Cancer UK consensus statement

Objectives

To develop a consensus statement on current best practice of active surveillance (AS) in the UK, informed by patients and clinical experts.

Subjects and Methods

A consensus statement was drafted on the basis of three sources of data: systematic literature search of national and international guidelines; data arising from a Freedom of Information Act request to UK urology departments regarding their current practice of AS; and survey and interview responses from men with localized prostate cancer regarding their experiences and views of AS. The Prostate Cancer UK Expert Reference Group (ERG) on AS was then convened to discuss and refine the statement.

Results

Guidelines and protocols for AS varied significantly in terms of risk stratification, criteria for offering AS, and protocols for AS between and within countries. Patients and healthcare professionals identified clinical, emotional and process needs for AS to be effective. Men with prostate cancer wanted more information and psychological support at the time of discussing AS with the treating team and in the first 2 years of AS, and a named healthcare professional to discuss any questions or concerns they had. The ERG agreed 30 consensus statements regarding best practice for AS. Statements were grouped under headings: ‘Inclusion/Exclusion Criteria’; ‘AS follow‐up protocol’ and ‘When to stop AS’.

Conclusion

Significant variation currently exists in the practice of AS in the UK and internationally. Men have clear views on the level of involvement in treatment decisions and support from their treating professionals when receiving AS. The Prostate Cancer UK AS ERG has developed a set of consensus statements for best practice in AS. Evidence for best practice in AS, and the use of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging in AS, is still evolving, and further studies are needed to determine how to optimize AS outcomes.

A study into the pharmacodynamic biomarker effects of olaparib (PARP Inhibitor) ± degarelix (GnRH antagonist) given prior to radical prostatectomy (RP) CANCAP03

35

Background: Novel agents given prior to RP allows the study of drug effect(s) in primary human prostate cancer (PC), supporting future clinical study development. Pre-clinical and clinical data (mostly in setting of castration resistant PC) support PARP ± androgen inhibition as therapy for some patients (pt). We undertook a study of olaparib (O) ± degarelix (D) prior to RP. Methods: 20 evaluable (pre and post RP tissue available with 86% dose compliance) pt randomised 1:1 to O or O+D. Primary endpoint: measure PARP inhibition by IHC. Secondary endpoints were feasibility, safety, tolerability. Exploratory objectives: changes PSA, circulating tumour DNA & intra-tumoral immune cells. Men, due for RP, with high volume or aggressive PC, consented and were treated with O (300mg bd) 15 days ± D (240mg once), prior to RP. Diagnostic biopsy and RP tissue were collected. Adverse events (AE) were graded according to CTCAE v4 and followed up to resolution or 6-weeks post RP. Results: 24 men recruited, 4 not evaluable (opted radiotherapy, surgery date altered, not by AE). Interim results are presented of available data. Conclusions: 2 weeks of O (± D) can be given prior to RP with acceptable safety profile. Exploratory analyses of tumour tissue are ongoing however, preliminary data confirm PSA drop noted for pt on both regimens. While expected for O+D this is the first report of PSA changes following a short course of single agent PARPi (O) in pt with local/ hormone sensitive PC. Clinical trial information: NCT02324998. [Table: see text]

Sequencing of prostate cancers identifies new cancer genes, routes of progression and drug targets

Prostate cancer represents a substantial clinical challenge because it is difficult to predict outcome and advanced disease is often fatal. We sequenced the whole genomes of 112 primary and metastatic prostate cancer samples. From joint analysis of these cancers with those from previous studies (930 cancers in total), we found evidence for 22 previously unidentified putative driver genes harboring coding mutations, as well as evidence for NEAT1 and FOXA1 acting as drivers through noncoding mutations. Through the temporal dissection of aberrations, we identified driver mutations specifically associated with steps in the progression of prostate cancer, establishing, for example, loss of CHD1 and BRCA2 as early events in cancer development of ETS fusion-negative cancers. Computational chemogenomic (canSAR) analysis of prostate cancer mutations identified 11 targets of approved drugs, 7 targets of investigational drugs, and 62 targets of compounds that may be active and should be considered candidates for future clinical trials.

Comparison of initial and tertiary centre second opinion reads of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging of the prostate prior to repeat biopsy

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the value of second-opinion evaluation of multiparametric prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by subspecialised uroradiologists at a tertiary centre for the detection of significant cancer in transperineal fusion prostate biopsy.

METHODS

Evaluation of prospectively acquired initial and second-opinion radiology reports of 158 patients who underwent MRI at regional hospitals prior to transperineal MR/untrasound fusion biopsy at a tertiary referral centre over a 3-year period. Gleason score (GS) 7-10 cancer, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive value (±95 % confidence intervals) were calculated and compared by Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

Disagreement between initial and tertiary centre second-opinion reports was observed in 54 % of cases (86/158). MRIs had a higher NPV for GS 7-10 in tertiary centre reads compared to initial reports (0.89 ± 0.08 vs 0.72 ± 0.16; p = 0.04), and a higher PPV in the target area for all cancer (0.61 ± 0.12 vs 0.28 ± 0.10; p = 0.01) and GS 7-10 cancer (0.43 ± 0.12 vs 0.2 3 ± 0.09; p = 0.02). For equivocal suspicion, the PPV for GS 7-10 was 0.12 ± 0.11 for tertiary centre and 0.11 ± 0.09 for initial reads; p = 1.00.

CONCLUSIONS

Second readings of prostate MRI by subspecialised uroradiologists at a tertiary centre significantly improved both NPV and PPV. Reporter experience may help to reduce overcalling and avoid overtargeting of lesions.

KEY POINTS

• Multiparametric MRIs were more often called negative in subspecialist reads (41 % vs 20 %). • Second readings of prostate mpMRIs by subspecialist uroradiologists significantly improved NPV and PPV. • Reporter experience may reduce overcalling and avoid overtargeting of lesions. • Greater education and training of radiologists in prostate MRI interpretation is advised.

The influence of prostate-specific antigen density on positive and negative predictive values of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging to detect Gleason score 7-10 prostate cancer in a repeat biopsy setting

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the influence of prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) on positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) to detect Gleason score ≥7 cancer in a repeat biopsy setting.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Retrospective study of 514 men with previous prostate biopsy showing no or Gleason score 6 cancer. All had mpMRI, graded 1-5 on a Likert scale for cancer suspicion, and subsequent targeted and 24-core systematic image-fusion guided transperineal biopsy in 2013-2015. The NPVs and PPVs of mpMRIs for detecting Gleason score ≥7 cancer were calculated (±95% confidence intervals) for PSAD ≤0.1, 0.1-0.2, ≤0.2 and >0.2 ng/mL/mL, and compared by chi-square test for linear trend.

RESULTS

Gleason score ≥7 cancer was detected in 31% of the men. The NPV of Likert 1-2 mpMRI was 0.91 (±0.04) with a PSAD of ≤0.2 ng/mL/mL and 0.71 (±0.16) with a PSAD of >0.2 ng/mL/mL (P = 0.003). For Likert 3 mpMRI, PPV was 0.09 (±0.06) with a PSAD of ≤0.2 ng/mL/mL and 0.44 (±0.19) with a PSAD of >0.2 ng/mL/mL (P = 0.002). PSAD also significantly affected the PPV of Likert 4-5 mpMRI lesions: the PPV was 0.47 (±0.08) with a PSAD of ≤0.2 ng/mL/mL and 0.66 (±0.10) with a PSAD of >0.2 ng/mL/mL (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In a repeat biopsy setting, a PSAD of ≤0.2 ng/mL/mL is associated with low detection of Gleason score ≥7 prostate cancer, not only in men with negative mpMRI, but also in men with equivocal imaging. Surveillance, rather than repeat biopsy, may be appropriate for these men. Conversely, biopsies are indicated in men with a high PSAD, even if an mpMRI shows no suspicious lesion, and in men with an mpMRI suspicious for cancer, even if the PSAD is low.

Transperineal prostate biopsies for diagnosis of prostate cancer are well tolerated: a prospective study using patient-reported outcome measures

We aimed to determine short-term patient-reported outcomes in men having general anesthetic transperineal (TP) prostate biopsies. A prospective cohort study was performed in men having a diagnostic TP biopsy. This was done using a validated and adapted questionnaire immediately post-biopsy and at follow-up of between 7 and 14 days across three tertiary referral hospitals with a response rate of 51.6%. Immediately after biopsy 43/201 (21.4%) of men felt light-headed, syncopal, or suffered syncope. Fifty-three percent of men felt discomfort after biopsy (with 95% scoring <5 in a 0-10 scale). Twelve out of 196 men (6.1%) felt pain immediately after the procedure. Despite a high incidence of symptoms (e.g., up to 75% had some hematuria, 47% suffered some pain), it was not a moderate or serious problem for most, apart from hemoejaculate which 31 men suffered. Eleven men needed catheterization (5.5%). There were no inpatient admissions due to complications (hematuria, sepsis). On repeat questioning at a later time point, only 25/199 (12.6%) of men said repeat biopsy would be a significant problem despite a significant and marked reduction in erectile function after the procedure. From this study, we conclude that TP biopsy is well tolerated with similar side effect profiles and attitudes of men to repeat biopsy to men having TRUS biopsies. These data allow informed counseling of men prior to TP biopsy and a benchmark for tolerability with local anesthetic TP biopsies being developed for clinical use.

CANCAP02: A study into the pharmacodynamic biomarker effects of vistusertib (AZD2014), an mTORC1/2 inhibitor, given prior to radical prostatectomy (RP)

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Background: Additional systemic therapy given to unselected patients (pts) around RP has yet to improved pt survival. Further trials should use appropriate pt selection, i.e. men at highest risk of relapse, ideally biomarker stratified. Using novel drugs prior to RP allows direct study of effects in primary prostate cancer (PC) that may guide design of future trials. Altered PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway signalling is associated with aggressive PC hence we have undertaken a study vistusertib, an oral, dual mTORC1/mTORC2 inhibitor prior to RP. Methods: Primary endpoint was to measure mTOR1/2 inhibition by immunohistochemistry (IHC). Secondary endpoints were feasibility, safety, tolerability and determining plasma concentrations of vistusertib. Exploratory objectives included measurement of anti-cancer effects. Men, due for RP, with high volume or aggressive PC consented and received vistusertib, 50mg bd, for 15 days prior to RP. Diagnostic biopsy and RP tissue were collected for IHC. Adverse events (AE) were graded according to CTCAE v4. Plasma was collected to determine vistusertib concentrations. Results: 21 men, median age 62 (range 50 – 69) included 11 intermediate and 10 high risk PC. 18/21 were evaluable for primary endpoint. On day of RP mean plasma vistusertib concentration at RP was 648 ng/mL (range 386-852) and 6-8 hr post dose 484 ng/mL (range 211-660). Majority of related AEs were Grade (Gr) 1, the most common being rash, thrombocytopenia, oral mucositis, diarrhoea, lymphopenia and fatigue. Six pts experienced Gr3 AEs (3 pt lymphopenia, 1 pt each rash, mucositis and ALT rise). Two pts discontinued due to AEs (mucositis, thrombocytopenia) and one withdrew consent. Surgery was delayed in one pt (Gr 1 thrombocytopenia). IHC confirmed at RP: 4EBP1 was reduced in 100% pt (75% no staining post vistusertib) and pS6 was reduced in 67%, not changed in 25% and increased in 8%. A fall in PSA occurred in 4/18 pts. Conclusions: 2 weeks of AZD2014 can be given prior to RP. Active plasma concentrations were achieved. mTOR pathway inhibition was confirmed on IHC and a PSA fall occurred in 22% of pt. Analysis is ongoing, to be informed by concomitant studies in a PTEN null PC model. Clinical trial information: NCT02064608.