The effect of six-month oral vitamin K supplementation on calcification propensity time in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A post hoc analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Experimental studies suggested that vitamin K supplementation may retard arterial calcification. Recently, serum calcification propensity time (T50) has been suggested as a functional biomarker for arterial wall calcification propensity. In this post-hoc analysis of a clinical trial, we evaluated the effect of six-month oral vitamin K supplementation on T50 and assessed the correlation between T50 and imaging arterial calcification parameters in people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

METHODS

This double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial included 68 participants (age = 69 ± 8 years, 76% male) with T2DM. Participants were assigned to menaquinone-7 (360 μg/day; n = 35) or placebo (n = 33). T50 was measured via nephelometry in serum collected at baseline, three and six months. Arterial calcification was measured at baseline and six months via 18F-Na PET-CT and conventional CT using Target-to-Background ratio (TBR) and Agatston score. Longitudinal analysis of covariance adjusted for baseline T50 was used to study the treatment effect. Spearman's correlation was used to assess the correlation between T50 and imaging calcification parameters.

RESULTS

Median baseline T50 was similar in the vitamin K (350 [321-394] minutes) and placebo groups (363 [320-398]). There was no significant difference in T50 between treatment arms over time (ẞ = 1.00, 95%C.I. = 0.94-1.07, p = 0.982). The correlation coefficient of T50 with TBR and Agatston score at baseline were -0.185 (p = 0.156) and -0.121 (p = 0.358), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

No effect of vitamin K supplementation on T50 was observed in T2DM. Moreover, T50 did not correlate with TBR and Agatston score. Further research on vitamin K in arterial calcification and on the validity of T50 as arterial calcification marker is warranted.

Milk intake and incident stroke and CHD in populations of European descent: a Mendelian randomisation study

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (β = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

Substitution among milk and yogurt products and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-NL cohort

Background

Higher dairy consumption has been associated with lower type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, whereas dairy product subtypes appear to differ in their T2D risk association. We investigated whether replacing one type of milk or yogurt product with another is associated with T2D incidence.

Methods

Participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition‐Netherlands (EPIC‐NL) cohort (n = 35 982) were included in the present study. Information on milk and yogurt consumption at baseline was obtained by a validated food frequency questionnaire. T2D cases were identified by self‐report or linkage to the hospital discharge registry, and validated by consulting the general practitioner. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations.

Results

During a mean of 15 years of follow‐up, 1467 indecent T2D cases were validated. Median total milk and yogurt intake was 1.5 servings (25th percentile to 75th percentile: 0.8–2.4). After adjustment for demographic and cardiovascular risk factors, replacement of one serving (200 g) of whole‐fat milk [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.60–1.44], buttermilk (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.58‐1.34), skimmed milk (HR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.57–1.32) or skimmed fermented milk (HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.63–1.54) with whole‐fat yogurt was not associated with T2D risk. Substitutions among other milk and yogurt products were also not associated with T2D risk. Sensitivity analysis investigating T2D risk halfway follow‐up suggested a lower risk for substitutions with whole‐fat yogurt.

Conclusions

No evidence was found for the association between substitutions among milk and yogurt products and the risk of incident T2D, although we cannot exclude possible attenuation of results as a result of dietary changes over time. This analysis should be repeated in a population with a wider consumption range of whole‐fat yogurt.

Does AMH relate to timing of menopause? Results of an Individual Patient Data meta- analysis

CONTEXT

Anti-Müllerian hormone based (AMH) age at menopause predictions remain cumbersome due to predictive inaccuracy.

OBJECTIVE

To perform an Individual Patient Data (IPD) meta-analysis, regarding AMH based menopause prediction.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases.

STUDY SELECTION

Prospective cohort studies regarding menopause prediction using serum AMH levels were selected by consensus discussion.

DATA SELECTION

Individual cases were included if experiencing a regular cycle at baseline. Exclusion criteria were hormone use and gynecological surgery.

DATA SYNTHESIS

2596 women were included, 1077 experienced menopause. A multivariable Cox regression analysis assessed time to menopause (TTM) using age and AMH. AMH predicted TTM, however, added value on top of age was poor (age alone C-statistic 84%; age + AMH HR 0.66 95% CI 0.61-0.71, C-statistic 86%). Moreover, the capacity of AMH to predict early (≤45 years) and late menopause (≥55 years) was assessed. An added effect of AMH was demonstrated for early menopause (age alone C-statistic 52%; age + AMH HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.24-0.45, C-statistic 80%). A Weibull regression model calculating individual age at menopause revealed that predictive inaccuracy remained present and increased with decreasing age at menopause. Lastly, a check of non-proportionality of the predictive effect of AMH demonstrated a reduced predictive effect with increasing age.

CONCLUSION

AMH was a significant predictor of TTM and especially of time to early menopause. However, individual predictions of age at menopause demonstrated a limited precision, particularly when concerning early age at menopause, making clinical application troublesome.

Fish consumption and risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular mortality in a Dutch population with low fish intake

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Fish consumption of at least 1 portion/week is related to lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. It is uncertain whether a less frequent intake is also beneficial and whether the type of fish matters. We investigated associations of very low intakes of total, fatty, and lean fish, compared with no fish intake, with 18-year incidences of stroke, coronary heart disease (CHD), and CVD mortality.

METHODS

Data were used from 34,033 participants, aged 20-70 years, of the EPIC-Netherlands cohort. Baseline (1993-1997) fish consumption was estimated using a food frequency questionnaire. We compared any fish consumption, <1 portion/week (<100 g) and ≥1 portion/week to non-fish consumption.

RESULTS

During 18 follow-up years, 753 stroke events, 2134 CHD events, and 540 CVD deaths occurred. Among the fish consumers (~92%) median intakes of total, lean, and fatty fish were 57.9, 32.9, and 10.7 g/week, respectively. Any fish consumption compared with non-consumption was not associated with incidences of stroke, CHD, MI, and CVD mortality. Furthermore, consumption of <1 portion/week of total, fatty, or lean fish was not associated with any CVD outcome, as compared with non-consumption. Consumption of ≥1 portion/week of lean fish (HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.57-0.86) and of fatty fish (HR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.39-1.02) were associated with lower incidence of ischaemic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline fish consumption of <1 portion/week, regardless of the type of fish, was unrelated to incidences of stroke, CHD, and CVD mortality in this Dutch cohort. Consumption of ≥1 portion/week of fatty or of lean fish reduced the incidence of ischaemic stroke.

Links between Atherosclerosis and Osteoporosis in Middle Aged and Elderly Men

BACKGROUND

Although the incidences of osteoporosis and atherosclerosis increase with age, there is growing evidence that the coincidental occurrence of both diseases may be independent of age. In general, studies in men are scarce and results are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate the relationship between atherosclerosis and bone mineral density, and the influence of insulin sensitivity and low grade inflammation on this relationship in 332 men without CVD.

METHODS

Aortic Pulse wave velocity (PWV), augmentation index (AIX) and measurements of carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) were assessed. BMD measurements were performed with dual-X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), subcutaneous fat by ultrasonography. Serum concentrations of lipids, hsCRP, glucose and insulin were measured. Insulin sensitivity was calculated by use of the quantitative insulin sensitivity (QUICKI). We used multivariate linear regression models to examine the association of hsCRP, insulin sensitivity, PWV, Aix, CIMT with BMD.

RESULTS

A higher CIMT was significantly associated with higher BMD after multivariate adjustment (ß 99.7; p=0.02). Further adjustment for weight attenuated the estimates towards non-significant. No association was found between PWV or AIX and BMD. Lower insulin sensitivity was associated with higher BMD (ß -645.1; p<0.01). After adjustment for weight this association was no longer significant. A similar effect was seen for the association between hsCRP and BMD.

CONCLUSION

In this population of healthy, non-obese, men without a history of cardiovascular disease the positively association between cardiovascular parameters and BMD was mainly explained by weight, suggesting that in this population weight plays a protective role in the development of osteoporosis.

Fluidity of the dietary fatty acid profile and risk of coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke: Results from the EPIC-Netherlands cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The fluidity of dietary fatty acids consumed has been suggested to inversely affect coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Lipophilic index (LI) represents overall fluidity of the dietary fatty acid profile. Lipophilic load (LL) represents a combination of overall fluidity and absolute intake of dietary fatty acids. We investigated the relations of dietary LI and LL with risk of CHD and ischemic stroke (iStroke).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the prospective EPIC-NL study, including 36,520 participants aged 20-70 years. LI and LL were calculated using dietary intake data estimated with a validated FFQ. Incident CHD (n = 2348) and iStroke (n = 479) cases were obtained through linkage to national registers during 15 years follow-up. LI and LL were not associated with CHD risk (HRs_{highest-versus-lowest-quartiles}: 0.93 [95%CI: 0.83, 1.04], and 0.92 [95%CI: 0.79, 1.07], respectively), and neither with iStroke risk (HRs 1.15 (95%CI: 0.89, 1.48), and 0.98 (95%CI: 0.70, 1.38), respectively). Original fatty acid classes (SFA, MUFA and PUFA), and LI and LL stratified by these fatty acid classes, were overall not related to CHD and ischemic stroke either.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Dutch population, neither the overall fluidity of the dietary fatty acid profile (LI), nor the combined fluidity and amount of fatty acids consumed (LL) were related to CHD or iStroke risk. Dietary LI and LL may have limited added value above original fatty acid classes and food sources in establishing the relation of fatty acid consumption with CVD.

A pro-inflammatory diet is associated with increased risk of developing hypertension among middle-aged women

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A pro-inflammatory diet is thought to lead to hypertension through oxidative stress and vessel wall inflammation. We therefore investigated the association between the dietary inflammatory index (DII) and developing hypertension in a population-based cohort of middle-aged women.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health included 7169 Australian women, aged 52 years (SD 1 year) at baseline in 2001, who were followed up through 4 surveys until 2013. The DII, a literature-derived dietary index that has been validated against several inflammatory markers, was calculated based on data collected via a validated food-frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. Hypertension was defined as new onset of doctor-diagnosed hypertension, ascertained through self-report between 2001 and 2013. Generalised Estimating Equation analyses were used to investigate the association between the DII and incident hypertension. The analyses were adjusted for demographic and hypertension risk factors. During 12-years follow-up we identified 1680 incident cases of hypertension. A more pro-inflammatory diet was associated with higher risk of hypertension in dichotomised analyses with an OR_{fully adjusted} of 1.24, 95% CI: 1.06-1.45.

CONCLUSION

A pro-inflammatory diet might lead to a higher risk of developing hypertension. These results need to be replicated in other studies.

A quantitative comparison of anti-Müllerian hormone measurement and its shifting boundaries between two assays

OBJECTIVE

Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), a quantitative marker of ovarian reserve, is used for both clinical and research purposes in the field of reproductive medicine. Numerous AMH assays have been developed. Among other factors, the lack of large-scale comparisons of the various assays hinders the universal interpretation of AMH levels. Moreover, little is known of the practical performance of highly sensitive assays compared with conventional assays with regard to the very low AMH levels found in women nearing menopause. This study aimed to compare the measurements of the Gen II (Beckman Coulter) assay with those of the highly sensitive picoAMH (AnshLabs) assay.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 1985 premenopausal women who completed the second visit of the population-based Doetinchem Cohort Study, with a mean age of 42±7years. AMH levels were measured with the Gen II and picoAMH assays. Passing-Bablok and Bland Altman analyses were performed and differences in the proportion of detectable samples were assessed.

RESULTS

The results from the Gen II and picoAMH assays were highly correlated, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.91. The Passing-Bablok regression formula was picoAMH=0.01+1.69*GenII, meaning that on average picoAMH levels were 69% higher than Gen II levels. Of the 670 samples with an undetectable AMH value with the Gen II assay, AMH could be detected in 78% with the picoAMH assay, at a median concentration [interquartile range] of 0.05 [0.01-0.14] ng/mL.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate that, despite a high correlation, there is a large relative difference between results of the Gen II and picoAMH assays. The use of a highly sensitive AMH assay is likely to result in a large increase in the proportion of samples with detectable levels. This may enable research into women's health across the menopausal transition and research into the potential clinical benefits of distinguishing between women with very low ovarian reserve.

Unraveling the associations of age and menopause with cardiovascular risk factors in a large population-based study

BACKGROUND

Although the association between menopause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has been studied extensively, the simultaneous role of chronological aging herein remains underexposed. This study aims to disentangle the relationships of menopausal status and chronological aging with CVD risk factors in the largest study population to date.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, CVD risk factors were compared between women with a different menopausal status within the same yearly age strata. The study population comprised female participants of the baseline visit of the population-based LifeLines Cohort Study. A total of 63,466 women, aged between 18 and 65 years, was included. Of them, 39,379 women were considered to be premenopausal, 8669 were perimenopausal, 14,514 were naturally postmenopausal, and 904 were surgically postmenopausal.

RESULTS

Compared to postmenopausal women aged 45 years, average total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) were 0.5 and 0.4 mmol/L higher, respectively, in postmenopausal women aged 50. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels were 4 and 1 mmHg higher, respectively. At all ages between 46 and 55 years, and after adjustment for confounders, naturally postmenopausal women had 0.2 to 0.4 mmol/L higher TC and 0.1 to 0.3 mmol/L higher LDL-c levels compared to premenopausal women in the same age range. Systolic blood pressure levels were up to 4 mmHg lower in naturally post- compared to premenopausal women at all ages between 29 and 52 years. Body mass index levels were up to 3.2 kg/m² higher in women with surgical menopause compared to all other women between the ages 32 and 52 years. All aforementioned results were statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Chronological age and menopausal status are both independently associated with CVD risk factors. Based on the comparatively smaller observed differences associated with menopausal status than with chronological aging, the significance of a more unfavorable lipid profile in a later reproductive stage may be less obvious than previously thought.

Back to the basics of ovarian aging: a population-based study on longitudinal anti-Müllerian hormone decline

BACKGROUND

Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is currently used as an ovarian reserve marker for individualized fertility counseling, but very little is known of individual AMH decline in women. This study assessed whether the decline trajectory of AMH is uniform for all women, and whether baseline age-specific AMH levels remain consistently high or low during this trajectory.

METHODS

A total of 3326 female participants from the population-based Doetinchem Cohort Study were followed with five visits over a 20-year period. Baseline age was 40 ± 10 years with a range of 20-59 years. AMH was measured in 12,929 stored plasma samples using the picoAMH assay (AnshLabs). Decline trajectories of AMH were studied with both chronological age and reproductive age, i.e., time to menopause. Multivariable linear mixed effects models characterized the individual AMH decline trajectories.

RESULTS

The overall rate of AMH decline accelerated after 40 years of age. Mixed models with varying age-specific AMH levels and decline rates provided the significantly best fit to the data, indicating that the fall in AMH levels over time does not follow a fixed pattern for individual women. AMH levels remained consistent along individual trajectories of age, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.87. The ICC of 0.32 for AMH trajectories with time to menopause expressed the large variation in AMH levels at a given time before the menopause. The differences between low and high age-specific AMH levels remained distinguishable, but became increasingly smaller with increasing chronological and reproductive age.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to characterize individual AMH decline over a long time period and broad age range. The varying AMH decline rates do not support the premise of a uniform AMH decline trajectory. Although age-specific AMH levels remain consistently high or low with increasing age, the converging trajectories and variance of AMH levels at a given time before menopause shed doubt on the added value of AMH to represent individualized reproductive age.

Long-term effects of joint bleeding before starting prophylaxis in severe haemophilia

INTRODUCTION

Early initiation of prophylaxis in severe haemophilia is critical for effective prevention of arthropathy. However, the optimum time for starting prophylaxis has not been established yet.

AIM

This study assessed long-term effects of age at starting prophylaxis and joint bleeding before prophylaxis on haemophilic arthropathy.

METHODS

In patients with severe haemophilia (FVIII/IX <0.01 IU mL^-1 ), born between 1965 and 2000, haemophilic arthropathy was evaluated on X-rays. Patient groups were compared by multivariable regression analysis, adjusted for bleeding phenotype and lifetime intensity of prophylaxis.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-four patients were evaluated at a median age of 22 years. When comparing patients according to age at starting prophylaxis, starting before age 6 years was significantly better than starting later (P < 0.01), but no additional benefit of starting before age 3 years was demonstrated. The number of joint bleeds before prophylaxis had a stronger association with arthropathy than age at starting prophylaxis. Starting prophylaxis before the onset of joint bleeding resulted in the best long-term outcome (P ≤ 0.02); starting after one joint bleed appeared to have acceptable long-term outcome. The difference between starting after 0-1 and 2-5 joint bleeds was notable, but statistical significance was not reached (P = 0.15).

CONCLUSION

Future research with more patients on early prophylaxis will have to clarify whether starting prophylaxis before joint bleeding is superior.

The association of low ovarian reserve with cardiovascular disease risk: a cross-sectional population-based study

STUDY QUESTION

Is there a relationship between serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in premenopausal women?

SUMMARY ANSWER

There are indications that premenopausal women with very low ovarian reserve may have an unfavorable CVD risk profile.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Age at menopause is frequently linked to CVD occurrence. AMH is produced by ovarian antral follicles and provides a measure of remaining ovarian reserve Literature on whether AMH is related to CVD risk is still scarce and heterogeneous.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Cross-sectional study in 2338 women (age range of 20-57 years) from the general population, participating in the Doetinchem Cohort Study between 1993 and 1997.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

CVD risk was compared between 2338 premenopausal women in different AMH level-categories, with adjustment for confounders. CVD risk was assessed through levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and glucose, in addition to a summed score of CVD risk factors. Among other factors, analyses were corrected for smoking, oral contraceptive use and BMI.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The relationship of serum AMH levels with CVD risk factor outcomes was nonlinear. Women with AMH levels <0.16 µg/l had 0.11 (95% confidence intervals (CIs) 0.01; 0.21) more metabolic risk factors compared with women with AMH levels ≥0.16 µg/l. There was no association of individual risk factor levels with AMH levels, besides a tendency towards lower total cholesterol levels of 0.11 mmol/l (95% CI -0.23; 0.01) in women with AMH levels <0.002 µg/l compared with women with AMH levels ≥0.16 µg/l. Although not statistically significant, these effect sizes were larger in women below 40 years of age.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Causality and temporality of the studied association cannot be addressed here. Moreover, the clinical and statistical significance of the results of this exploratory study should be interpreted with caution due to the absence of adjustment for multiple statistical testing.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This population-based study supports previous findings that premenopausal women with very low AMH levels may have an increased CVD risk. It lays the groundwork for future research to focus on this group of women. Longitudinal studies with more sensitive AMH assays may furthermore help better understand the implications of these results.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST

No financial support was received for this research or manuscript. The Doetinchem Cohort Study is conducted and funded by the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment F.J.M.B. has received fees and grant support from Merck Serono, Gedeon Richter, Ferring BV and Roche.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Evaluating outcome of prophylaxis in haemophilia: objective and self-reported instruments should be combined

INTRODUCTION

Routine outcome assessment of prophylaxis should use validated tools, while balancing comprehensiveness and burden. Collecting overlapping information should be avoided.

AIM

To assess correlations between different outcome assessment tools in haemophilia.

METHODS

From an international cross-sectional study, data on objective outcome (Haemophilia Joint Health Score (HJHS 2.1, range 0-124), radiological Pettersson score) and self-reported joint bleeding, Haemophilia Activities List (HAL, range 100-0), health-related quality of life (SF-36, including five physical and five mental domain scores, range 100-0), and Utility (SF6D and EQ-5D, range 1.0-0) were extracted. Spearman's correlations were calculated: ≥0.8 very strong, 0.60-0.79 strong, 0.40-0.59 moderate.

RESULTS

Ninety patients with severe haemophilia, on prophylaxis since median age 3.4 years, were evaluated at median 25.5 years (range 16.0-37.6). Objective outcome was favourable (median HJHS 2.1 6 points, Pettersson score 9 points). Self-reported outcome showed a median of 7 joint bleeds in 5 years, median HAL sum 96 points, high scores for physical domains of SF-36 (median 80-95) and high Utility values (median SF6D 0.87; EQ-5D 0.84). Physical examination (HJHS 2.1) showed strong correlation with radiological scores, moderate correlation with physical domains of the SF-36 and Utility, but no correlation with self-reported bleeding or limitations in activities (HAL). Bleeding was not associated with any other outcome parameter. The HAL was only correlated with the SF36 'Physical functioning' domain.

CONCLUSION

For the evaluation of patients on early prophylaxis, information on bleeding should be complemented by objective joint assessment as well as self-reported limitations in activities and quality of life.

Yearly hypertension screening in women with a history of pre-eclampsia: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Women with a history of preeclampsia are at increased risk for future hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD); until now it is not clear whether preventive measures are needed.

Methods

A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to evaluate healthcare costs and effects of screening and treatment (100 % compliance) for hypertension post preeclampsia based on the available literature. Cardiovascular events and CVD mortality were defined as health states. Outcomes were measured in absolute costs, events, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Sensitivity and threshold analyses were performed to address uncertainty.

Results

Over a 20-year time horizon, events occurred in 7.2 % of the population after screening, and in 8.5 % of the population without screening. QALYs increased from 16.37 (no screening strategy) to 16.40 (screening strategy), an increment of 0.03 (95 % CI 0.01;0.05) QALYs. Total expected costs were € 8016 in the screening strategy, and € 9087 in the none screening strategy (expected saving of € 1071 (95 % CI − 3146;-87) per person).

Conclusion

Annual hypertension screening and treatment in women with a history of preeclampsia may save costs, for at least a similar quality of life and survival due to prevented CVD compared with standard care.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12471-015-0760-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Diabetes and onset of natural menopause: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

STUDY QUESTION

Do women who have diabetes before menopause have their menopause at an earlier age compared with women without diabetes?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Although there was no overall association between diabetes and age at menopause, our study suggests that early-onset diabetes may accelerate menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Today, more women of childbearing age are being diagnosed with diabetes, but little is known about the impact of diabetes on reproductive health.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We investigated the impact of diabetes on age at natural menopause (ANM) in 258 898 women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), enrolled between 1992 and 2000.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Determinant and outcome information was obtained through questionnaires. Time-dependent Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the associations of diabetes and age at diabetes diagnosis with ANM, stratified by center and adjusted for age, smoking, reproductive and diabetes risk factors and with age from birth to menopause or censoring as the underlying time scale.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Overall, no association between diabetes and ANM was found (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-1.01). However, women with diabetes before the age of 20 years had an earlier menopause (10-20 years: HR = 1.43; 95% CI 1.02-2.01, <10 years: HR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.03-2.43) compared with non-diabetic women, whereas women with diabetes at age 50 years and older had a later menopause (HR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.70-0.95). None of the other age groups were associated with ANM.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Strengths of the study include the large sample size and the broad set of potential confounders measured. However, results may have been underestimated due to survival bias. We cannot be sure about the sequence of the events in women with a late age at diabetes, as both events then occur in a short period. We could not distinguish between type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Based on the literature, an accelerating effect of early-onset diabetes on ANM might be plausible. A delaying effect of late-onset diabetes on ANM has not been reported before, and is not in agreement with recent studies suggesting the opposite association.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMMF) (Germany); Ministry of Health and Social Solidarity, Stavros Niarchos Foundation and Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC) and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); ERC-2009-AdG 232997 and Nordforsk, Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council and Regional Government of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Department of Health, Food Standards Agency, and Wellcome Trust (UK). None of the authors reported a conflict of interest.

The Relationship Between Variation in Size of the Primordial Follicle Pool and Age at Natural Menopause

CONTEXT

Menopause has been hypothesized to occur when the nongrowing follicle (NGF) number falls below a critical threshold. Age at natural menopause can be predicted using NGF numbers and this threshold. These predictions support the use of ovarian reserve tests, reflective of the ovarian follicle pool, in menopause forecasting.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to investigate the hypothesis that age-specific NGF numbers reflect age at natural menopause.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Histologically derived NGF numbers obtained from published literature (n = 218) and distribution of menopausal ages derived from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect-EPIC) cohort (n = 4037) were combined.

PARTICIPANTS

NGF data were from single ovaries that had been obtained postnatally for various reasons, such as elective surgery or autopsy. From the Prospect-EPIC cohort, women aged 58 years and older with a known age at natural menopause were selected.

INTERVENTIONS

There were no interventions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Conformity between observed age at menopause in the Prospect-EPIC cohort and NGF-predicted age at menopause from a model for age-related NGF decline constructed using a robust regression analysis. A critical threshold for NGF number was estimated by comparing the probability distribution of the age at which the NGF numbers fall below this threshold with the observed distribution of age at natural menopause from the Prospect-EPIC cohort.

RESULTS

The distributions of observed age at natural menopause and predicted age at natural menopause showed close conformity.

CONCLUSION

The close conformity observed between NGF-predicted and actual age at natural menopause supports the hypothesis that that the size of the primordial follicle pool is an important determinant for the length of the individual ovarian life span and supports the concept of menopause prediction using ovarian reserve tests, such as anti-Müllerian hormone and antral follicle count, as derivatives of the true ovarian reserve.

Dietary intake of carotenoids and risk of type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Carotenoids may reduce diabetes risk, due to their antioxidant properties. However, the association between dietary carotenoids intake and type 2 diabetes risk is still unclear. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine whether higher dietary carotenoid intakes associate with reduced type 2 diabetes risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from 37,846 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition- Netherlands study were analyzed. Dietary intakes of β-carotene, α-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, lutein & zeaxanthin and the sum of these carotenoids were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Incident type 2 diabetes was mainly self-reported, and verified against general practitioner information. Mean ±SD total carotenoid intake was 10 ± 4 mg/day. During a mean ±SD follow-up of 10 ± 2 years, 915 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were ascertained. After adjustment for age, sex, diabetes risk factors, dietary intake, waist circumference and BMI, higher β-carotene intakes associated inversely with diabetes risk [Hazard Ratio quartile 4 versus quartile 1 (HR(Q4)): 0.78 (95%CI:0.64,0.95), P-linear trend 0.01]. For α-carotene, a borderline significant reduced risk was observed, with a HR(Q4) of 0.85 (95%CI:0.70,1.03), and P-linear trend 0.05. β-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, lutein & zeaxanthin, and the sum of all carotenoids did not associate with diabetes risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that diets high in β-carotene and α-carotene are associated with reduced type 2 diabetes in generally healthy men and women.

Consumption of fatty foods and incident type 2 diabetes in populations from eight European countries

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Diets high in saturated and trans fat and low in unsaturated fat may increase type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, but studies on foods high in fat per unit weight are sparse. We assessed whether the intake of vegetable oil, butter, margarine, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies is related to incident T2D.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

A case-cohort study was conducted, nested within eight countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC), with 12,403 incident T2D cases and a subcohort of 16,835 people, identified from a cohort of 340,234 people. Diet was assessed at baseline (1991-1999) by country-specific questionnaires. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) across four categories of fatty foods (nonconsumers and tertiles among consumers) were combined with random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

After adjustment not including body mass index (BMI), nonconsumers of butter, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies were at higher T2D risk compared with the middle tertile of consumption. Among consumers, cakes and cookies were inversely related to T2D (HRs across increasing tertiles 1.14, 1.00 and 0.92, respectively; P-trend <0.0001). All these associations attenuated upon adjustment for BMI, except the higher risk of nonconsumers of cakes and cookies (HR 1.57). Higher consumption of margarine became positively associated after BMI adjustment (HRs across increasing consumption tertiles: 0.93, 1.00 and 1.12; P-trend 0.03). Within consumers, vegetable oil, butter and nuts and seeds were unrelated to T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

Fatty foods were generally not associated with T2D, apart from weak positive association for margarine. The higher risk among nonconsumers of cakes and cookies needs further explanation.

Age at menopause in women with type 1 diabetes mellitus: the OVADIA study

STUDY QUESTION

Is type 1 diabetes a determinant of advanced ovarian ageing, resulting in an early age at natural menopause?

SUMMARY ANSWER

No clear evidence was provided that type 1 diabetes is a determinant of accelerated ovarian ageing resulting in an early menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The association between type 1 diabetes and early menopause has been examined previously with inconsistent results.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A cross-sectional study was performed in 140 post-menopausal women with, and 5426 post-menopausal women without, diabetes.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Both women with and without diabetes had experienced natural menopause. Study participants filled out a standardized questionnaire including report of their age at last menstrual period. Differences in menopausal age were analysed using linear regression analyses, with adjustment for possible confounders.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Mean age at natural menopause was 49.8 ± 4.7 years in women with type 1 diabetes and 49.8 ± 4.1 in women without diabetes. Linear regression analyses showed that type 1 diabetes was not associated with an earlier menopause compared with the reference group without diabetes, after adjustment for age, smoking history and parity (difference in age at menopause between women with type 1 diabetes and reference group 0.34 years, 95% confidence interval -0.34, 1.01).

LIMITATIONS, REASON FOR CAUTION

Age at menopause was self-reported and assessed retrospectively. We had no information regarding microvascular complications therefore a possible association between vascular health and menopausal age could not be investigated.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

It has been hypothesized that the possible mechanism behind an accelerated ovarian ageing process in type 1 diabetes is prolonged poor glycaemic control and subsequent effects on vascular health. The improved glycaemic control during the last decades may have prevented vascular damage from occurring to an extent that would affect organ function. Nevertheless, the present findings are reassuring for reproductive health prospects in women with type 1 diabetes.

The validation of cardiovascular risk scores for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE

Various cardiovascular prediction models have been developed for patients with type 2 diabetes. Their predictive performance in new patients is mostly not investigated. This study aims to quantify the predictive performance of all cardiovascular prediction models developed specifically for diabetes patients.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Follow-up data of 453, 1174 and 584 type 2 diabetes patients without pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the EPIC-NL, EPIC-Potsdam and Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohorts, respectively, were used to validate 10 prediction models to estimate risk of CVD or coronary heart disease (CHD). Discrimination was assessed by the c-statistic for time-to-event data. Calibration was assessed by calibration plots, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic and expected to observed ratios.

RESULTS

There was a large variation in performance of CVD and CHD scores between different cohorts. Discrimination was moderate for all 10 prediction models, with c-statistics ranging from 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.63) to 0.76 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.84). Calibration of the original models was poor. After simple recalibration to the disease incidence of the target populations, predicted and observed risks were close. Expected to observed ratios of the recalibrated models ranged from 1.06 (95% CI 0.81 to 1.40) to 1.55 (95% CI 0.95 to 2.54), mainly driven by an overestimation of risk in high-risk patients.

CONCLUSIONS

All 10 evaluated models had a comparable and moderate discriminative ability. The recalibrated, but not the original, prediction models provided accurate risk estimates. These models can assist clinicians in identifying type 2 diabetes patients who are at low or high risk of developing CVD.

Circulating desphospho-uncarboxylated matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein and the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke

BACKGROUND

High vitamin K intake is associated with a reduced risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). This is thought to be mediated by increased activation of the vitamin K-dependent matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP). Desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP (dp-ucMGP) is associated with both vitamin K status and vascular calcification. However, the association of dp-ucMGP with CHD and stroke in the general population has not been investigated to date.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of dp-ucMGP with incident CHD or stroke.

METHODS

A prospective case-cohort study with a representative baseline sample of 1406 participants and 1154 and 380 incident cases of CHD and stroke, respectively, was nested within the EPIC-NL study. Circulating dp-ucMGP levels were measured with ELISA in baseline plasma samples. The incidence rates of fatal and non-fatal CHD and stroke were obtained by linkage to national registers. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation (SD) and per quartile of circulating dp-ucMGP levels.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The average follow-up was 11.5 years. Levels of dp-ucMGP were not associated with CHD risk, with an HR per SD of 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93-1.07) and an HRQ4 vs. Q1 of 0.94 (95% CI 0.79-1.13) after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. There was no association of dp-ucMGP stroke risk (HRSD  0.98, 95% CI 0.90-1.08; and HRQ4 vs. Q1  1.09, 95% CI 0.78-1.51). This study could not confirm that high dp-ucMGP levels, reflecting poor vitamin K status, are associated with increased CHD or stroke risk in the general population.

The significance of fragile X mental retardation gene 1 CGG repeat sizes in the normal and intermediate range in women with primary ovarian insufficiency

STUDY QUESTION

Are fragile X mental retardation gene 1 (FMR1) CGG repeats in the normal and intermediate range (up to 55 repeats) associated with primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) in a large case-control study?

SUMMARY ANSWER

No association was found between CGG repeats of intermediate size and POI compared with controls.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

CGG repeats in the FMR1 gene in the premutation range (55-200 repeats) have consistenly associated with POI. Intermediate range CGG repeats have been considered for a potential association with POI.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE

A case-control study in 375 well-phenotyped Dutch women diagnosed with POI and 3368 controls with natural menopause ≥40 years of age.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The FMR1 CGG repeat number was determined by PCR amplification in women diagnosed with POI and women with a known age at natural menopause ≥40 years. The prevalence of intermediate sized CGG repeats (45-54 repeats) was compared between POI cases and controls using Fisher's exact test. Differences in mean CGG repeat lengths on allele 1 and allele 2 between POI cases and controls were tested using analysis of variance.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The frequency of intermediate sized CGG repeats on the allele with the longest triple repeat number was not statistically significantly different between POI cases and controls (2.7 and 3.8%, respectively, odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval: 0.38-1.39, P = 0.38). In women with POI, linear regression analysis for age at POI diagnosis and CGG repeat size also failed to show any association (β = -0.018, P = 0.74).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

FMR1 CGG repeat lengths in POI cases and controls were genotyped in two different laboratories. The distributions of CGG repeats may vary among the different ethnic populations in our study. Also, in our study women with primary amenorrhea (N = 17) were included in the POI group.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

We found no association between intermediate sized CGG repeats and POI compared with controls. Therefore, a role for FMR1 CGG repeat sizes up to 55 repeats in the ovarian ageing process may be questioned. Moreover, there seems limited value in the evaluation of normal- and intermediate FMR1 repeat size in the diagnostic work-up of women affected by POI, or for prognostic purposes in women at risk of developing POI.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The Prospect-EPIC study was funded by 'Europe Against Cancer' Program of the European Commission (SANCO); the Dutch Ministry of Health; the Dutch Cancer Society; ZonMW the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development; World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) and the Dutch Heart Association.

Intensification of medication and glycaemic control among patients with type 2 diabetes - the ADVANCE trial

AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess associations between patient characteristics, intensification of blood glucose-lowering treatment through oral glucose-lowering therapy and/or insulin and effective glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

11 140 patients from the Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: preterAx and diamicroN-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial who were randomized to intensive glucose control or standard glucose control and followed up for a median of 5 years were categorized into two groups: effective glycaemic control [haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≤ 7.0% or a proportionate reduction in HbA1c over 10%] or ineffective glycaemic control (HbA1c > 7.0% and a proportionate reduction in HbA1c less than or equal to 10%). Therapeutic intensification was defined as addition of an oral glucose-lowering agent or commencement of insulin. Pooled logistic regression models examined the associations between patient factors, intensification and effective glycaemic control.

RESULTS

A total of 7768 patients (69.7%), including 3198 in the standard treatment group achieved effective glycaemic control. Compared to patients with ineffective control, patients with effective glycaemic control had shorter duration of diabetes and lower HbA1c at baseline and at the time of treatment intensification. Treatment intensification with addition of an oral agent or commencement of insulin was associated with a 107% [odds ratio, OR: 2.07 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.95-2.20)] and 152% [OR: 2.52 (95% CI: 2.30-2.77)] greater chance of achieving effective glycaemic control, respectively. These associations were robust after adjustment for several baseline characteristics and not modified by the number of oral medications taken at the time of treatment intensification.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective glycaemic control was associated with treatment intensification at lower HbA1c levels at all stages of the disease course and in both arms of the ADVANCE trial.

Serum AMH levels in women with a history of preeclampsia suggest a role for vascular factors in ovarian aging

CONTEXT

The association between early menopause and vascular disease as a possible causative factor has recently received attention. Preeclampsia (PE) is associated with future cardiovascular risk factors, and this premature vascular aging potentially modifies the ovarian aging process.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to assess whether women with a history of PE have lower anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels than women with normotensive pregnancies.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The study was conducted in a tertiary referral center.

PATIENTS

Clinical data and blood samples of participants in the Preeclampsia Risk EValuation in FEMales study were used (336 women with a history of PE and 329 women after a normotensive pregnancy).

INTERVENTIONS

There were no interventions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The relative decrease in AMH levels was assessed after a median follow-up of 10.5 years.

RESULTS

The mean AMH level was 2.00 ± 1.87 μg/L in the PE group compared with 2.26 ± 2.56 μg/L in the reference group. Linear regression analysis with censoring for undetectable AMH levels, adjusted for age, smoking, and hormonal contraceptive use, showed a relative reduction in AMH levels of 20.9% at any age (fold change 0.79, 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that women with a history of PE have significantly lower AMH levels than women with normotensive pregnancies. Calculations based on a reference population indicate advancement of reproductive age of approximately 1.5 years. Because PE is considered a manifestation of impaired vascular health, these results support the hypothesis that compromised vascular health could act as a causative mechanism in early ovarian aging.

The relationship between anti-Müllerian hormone in women receiving fertility assessments and age at menopause in subfertile women: evidence from large population studies

CONTEXT

Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration reflects ovarian aging and is argued to be a useful predictor of age at menopause (AMP). It is hypothesized that AMH falling below a critical threshold corresponds to follicle depletion, which results in menopause. With this threshold, theoretical predictions of AMP can be made. Comparisons of such predictions with observed AMP from population studies support the role for AMH as a forecaster of menopause.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to investigate whether previous relationships between AMH and AMP are valid using a much larger data set.

SETTING

AMH was measured in 27 563 women attending fertility clinics.

STUDY DESIGN

From these data a model of age-related AMH change was constructed using a robust regression analysis. Data on AMP from subfertile women were obtained from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect-EPIC) cohort (n = 2249). By constructing a probability distribution of age at which AMH falls below a critical threshold and fitting this to Prospect-EPIC menopausal age data using maximum likelihood, such a threshold was estimated.

MAIN OUTCOME

The main outcome was conformity between observed and predicted AMP.

RESULTS

To get a distribution of AMH-predicted AMP that fit the Prospect-EPIC data, we found the critical AMH threshold should vary among women in such a way that women with low age-specific AMH would have lower thresholds, whereas women with high age-specific AMH would have higher thresholds (mean 0.075 ng/mL; interquartile range 0.038-0.15 ng/mL). Such a varying AMH threshold for menopause is a novel and biologically plausible finding. AMH became undetectable (<0.2 ng/mL) approximately 5 years before the occurrence of menopause, in line with a previous report.

CONCLUSIONS

The conformity of the observed and predicted distributions of AMP supports the hypothesis that declining population averages of AMH are associated with menopause, making AMH an excellent candidate biomarker for AMP prediction. Further research will help establish the accuracy of AMH levels to predict AMP within individuals.

Reproductive and lifestyle determinants of anti-Müllerian hormone in a large population-based study

CONTEXT

Anti-müllerian hormone (AMH) is an ovarian reserve marker that is increasingly applied in clinical practice as a prognostic and diagnostic tool. Despite increased use of AMH in clinical practice, large-scale studies addressing the influence of possible determinants on AMH levels are scarce.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to address the role of reproductive and lifestyle determinants of AMH in a large population-based cohort of women.

DESIGN

In this cross-sectional study, age-specific AMH percentiles were calculated using general linear modeling with CG-LMS (Cole and Green, Lambda, Mu, and Sigma model, an established method to calculate growth curves for children).

SETTING

Women from the general community participating in the Doetinchem Cohort study were assessed.

PARTICIPANTS

Two thousand three hundred twenty premenopausal women were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The effect of female reproductive and lifestyle factors on shifts in age-specific AMH percentiles was studied.

RESULTS

In comparison to women with a regular menstrual cycle, current oral contraceptive (OC) users, women with menstrual cycle irregularity, and pregnant women had significantly lower age-specific AMH percentiles (for OC use, 11 percentiles lower; for cycle irregularity, 11 percentiles lower; and for pregnancy, 17 percentiles lower [P value for all <.0001]). Age at menarche and age at first childbirth were not associated with the age-specific AMH percentile. Higher parity was associated with 2 percentiles higher age-specific AMH (P = .02). Of the lifestyle factors investigated, current smoking was associated with 4 percentiles lower age-specific AMH percentiles (P = .02), irrespective of the smoking dose. Body mass index, waist circumference, alcohol consumption, physical exercise, and socioeconomic status were not significantly associated with age-specific AMH percentiles.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that several reproductive and lifestyle factors are associated with age-specific AMH levels. The lower AMH levels associated with OC use and smoking seem reversible, as effects were confined to current use of OC or cigarettes. It is important to give careful consideration to the effect of such determinants when interpreting AMH in a clinical setting and basing patient management on AMH.

Dietary patterns derived from principal component- and k-means cluster analysis: long-term association with coronary heart disease and stroke

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Studies comparing dietary patterns derived from different a posteriori methods in view of predicting disease risk are scarce. We aimed to explore differences between dietary patterns derived from principal component- (PCA) and k-means cluster analysis (KCA) in relation to their food group composition and ability to predict CHD and stroke risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study was conducted in the EPIC-NL cohort that consists of 40,011 men and women. Baseline dietary intake was measured using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Food items were consolidated into 31 food groups. Occurrence of CHD and stroke was assessed through linkage with registries. After 13 years of follow-up, 1,843 CHD and 588 stroke cases were documented. Both PCA and KCA extracted a prudent pattern (high intakes of fish, high-fiber products, raw vegetables, wine) and a western pattern (high consumption of French fries, fast food, low-fiber products, other alcoholic drinks, soft drinks with sugar) with small variation between components and clusters. The prudent component was associated with a reduced risk of CHD (HR for extreme quartiles: 0.87; 95%-CI: 0.75-1.00) and stroke (0.68; 0.53-0.88). The western component was not related to any outcome. The prudent cluster was related with a lower risk of CHD (0.91; 0.82-1.00) and stroke (0.79; 0.67-0.94) compared to the western cluster.

CONCLUSION

PCA and KCA found similar underlying patterns with comparable associations with CHD and stroke risk. A prudent pattern reduced the risk of CHD and stroke.

Identification of high-risk individuals for the development of disability in activities of daily living. A ten-year follow-up study

Independence in activities of daily living (ADL) is important in an aging population. ADL disability is a multifactorial problem, therefore a multifactorial approach is needed in the prediction of ADL disability. Our objective is to identify predictors for the development of ADL disability over a course of ten years in middle-aged and older persons. In a prospective cohort study, 478 middle-aged and older persons (61.2 years, range 40-78 years) without ADL disability at baseline were included. ADL disability was measured using the Katz-questionnaire. We included the following candidate predictors: number of chronic diseases, MMSE, Short Physical Performance Battery, leg strength, handgrip strength, physical activity, cholesterol/HDL ratio, BMI, pulse wave velocity, the degree of urbanization, age, gender and socioeconomic status. Associations between candidate predictors and ADL disability were examined using Poisson regression analysis. Performance of the prediction model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. The number of chronic diseases, muscle strength, age, gender and socioeconomic status were predictors of ADL disability at ten-year follow-up. The model showed a good calibration and discrimination (c-statistic: 0.83) between persons who will and will not develop ADL disability. In conclusion, the present study showed that using a multifactorial prediction model - based on easily and readily available measurements - individuals who are at high risk of developing ADL disability could be identified. The prediction model could be used as a screening tool to identify which persons most likely benefit from preventive strategies and interventions.

The link between family history and risk of type 2 diabetes is not explained by anthropometric, lifestyle or genetic risk factors: the EPIC-InterAct study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Although a family history of type 2 diabetes is a strong risk factor for the disease, the factors mediating this excess risk are poorly understood. In the InterAct case-cohort study, we investigated the association between a family history of diabetes among different family members and the incidence of type 2 diabetes, as well as the extent to which genetic, anthropometric and lifestyle risk factors mediated this association.

METHODS

A total of 13,869 individuals (including 6,168 incident cases of type 2 diabetes) had family history data available, and 6,887 individuals had complete data on all mediators. Country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox models were fitted within country, and HRs were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Lifestyle and anthropometric measurements were performed at baseline, and a genetic risk score comprising 35 polymorphisms associated with type 2 diabetes was created.

RESULTS

A family history of type 2 diabetes was associated with a higher incidence of the condition (HR 2.72, 95% CI 2.48, 2.99). Adjustment for established risk factors including BMI and waist circumference only modestly attenuated this association (HR 2.44, 95% CI 2.03, 2.95); the genetic score alone explained only 2% of the family history-associated risk of type 2 diabetes. The greatest risk of type 2 diabetes was observed in those with a biparental history of type 2 diabetes (HR 5.14, 95% CI 3.74, 7.07) and those whose parents had been diagnosed with diabetes at a younger age (<50 years; HR 4.69, 95% CI 3.35, 6.58), an effect largely confined to a maternal family history.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Prominent lifestyle, anthropometric and genetic risk factors explained only a marginal proportion of the excess risk associated with family history, highlighting the fact that family history remains a strong, independent and easily assessed risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Discovering factors that will explain the association of family history with type 2 diabetes risk will provide important insight into the aetiology of type 2 diabetes.

Atherosclerosis and physical functioning in older men, a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

Functional decline is a major threat to independency, progressing into functional limitations and eventually leading to disability. Chronic diseases, especially cardiovascular diseases, are important determinants of functional limitations and disability. Vascular damage exits long before it is clinically manifest and can have adverse effects on health, physical and cognitive functioning. The objective was to investigate the association between non-invasive atherosclerosis measures and physical functioning in older men.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

The study was conducted in the general community.

PARTICIPANTS

195 independently living older men.

MEASUREMENTS

Atherosclerosis was measured by intima media thickness (CIMT) of the common carotid artery using ultrasonography and assessment for presence of atherosclerotic plaques. Physical functioning was measured by isometric handgrip strength and leg extensor strength using a hand held dynamometer, lower extremity function using the physical performance score and ability to perform activities of daily life using the modified Stanford health assessment questionnaire. Linear regression analysis was performed to estimate the associations between CIMT or plaques and physical functioning.

RESULTS

After adjustment for confounders, higher baseline CIMT was associated with lower isometric handgrip strength at follow up (βCIMT = -7.21, 95% CI[-13.64;-0.77]). No other associations were found between CIMT and physical functioning. In addition, no associations were found for the presence of plaques and physical functioning either at baseline, or at follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Atherosclerosis, as measured by higher CIMT, is related to a lower isometric handgrip strength at follow-up, but no further associations with physical functioning were found in this longitudinal study among independently living older men.

The effect of menaquinone-7 supplementation on circulating species of matrix Gla protein

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether menaquinone-7 (MK-7) supplementation increases carboxylation of MGP.

DESIGN

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was performed. Sixty participants (40-65 y) were randomly allocated to supplementation of 180 μg/d, 360 μg/d of MK-7 or placebo during 12 weeks. At baseline, after 4 and 12 weeks, desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP (dp-ucMGP), desphospho-carboxylated MGP (dp-cMGP) and total uncarboxylated MGP (t-ucMGP) were measured by ELISA techniques. Furthermore, the ratio of uncarboxylated osteocalcin (ucOC) to carboxylated osteocalcin (cOC) was used as proxy of vitamin K status and various cardiovascular risk factors were measured.

RESULTS

Dp-ucMGP decreased significantly and dose-dependently in the 180 μg and 360 μg MK-7 supplementation groups (P time*treatment < 0.001) after 12 weeks, by 31% and 46% respectively, while dp-ucMGP levels remained unchanged after placebo treatment. The osteocalcin ratio also decreased significantly after 12-week supplementation with 180 μg (60%) and 360 μg (74%) MK-7 (P time*treatment < 0.001), while levels remained unchanged after placebo treatment. These results indicate improved vitamin K status and good compliance to the study treatment. Changes over time of dp-cMGP (p = 0.42) and t-ucMGP (p = 0.23) levels did not differ between treatment arms. Other cardiovascular risk factors did not differ between treatments arms.

CONCLUSIONS

Menaquinone supplementation dose-dependently decreases dp-ucMGP concentrations, but does not affect other MGP species. Dp-ucMGP may serve as a non-invasive marker of vitamin K status.

Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women: influence of beverage type and body size The EPIC-InterAct study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type.

DESIGN

Multicentre prospective case-cohort study.

SETTING

Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort.

SUBJECTS

A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes.

INTERVENTIONS

Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information.

RESULTS

Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.78-1.05) for 6.1-12.0 versus 0.1-6.0 g day(-1) , adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.1-96.0 g day(-1) with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92) for 6.1-12.0 g day(-1) (P interaction gender <0.01). The inverse association between alcohol consumption and diabetes was more pronounced amongst overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg m(-2) ) than normal-weight men and women (P interaction < 0.05). Adjusting for waist and hip circumference did not alter the results for men, but attenuated the association for women (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.03 for 6.1-12.0 g day(-1) ). Wine consumption for men and fortified wine consumption for women were most strongly associated with a reduced risk of diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study show that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes amongst women only. However, this risk reduction is in part explained by fat distribution. The relation between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes was stronger for overweight than normal-weight women and men.

WITHDRAWN: Determinants of vitamin D status in healthy men and women aged 40-80 years

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Weight changes and their predictors amongst 11 140 patients with type 2 diabetes in the ADVANCE trial

AIMS

To determine the baseline characteristics and glucose-lowering therapies associated with weight change among patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Eleven thousand one hundred and forty participants in the ADVANCE trial were randomly assigned to an intensive [aiming for a haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≤6.5%] or a standard blood glucose-control strategy. Weight was measured at baseline and every 6 months over a median follow-up of 5 years. Multivariable linear regression and linear-mixed effect models were used to examine predictors of weight change.

RESULTS

The mean difference in weight between the intensive and standard glucose-control arm during follow-up was 0.75 kg (95% CI: 0.56-0.94), p-value <0.001. The mean weight decreased by 0.70 kg (95% CI: 0.53-0.87), p < 0.001 by the end of follow-up in the standard arm but remained stable in the intensive arm, with a non-significant gain of 0.16 kg (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.34), p = 0.075. Baseline factors associated with weight gain were younger age, higher HbA1c, Caucasian ethnicity and number of glucose-lowering medications. Treatment combinations including insulin [3.22 kg (95% CI: 2.92-3.52)] and thiazolidinediones [3.06 kg (95% CI: 2.69-3.43)] were associated with the greatest weight gain while treatment combinations including sulphonylureas were associated with less weight gain [0.71 kg (95%CI: 0.39-1.03)].

CONCLUSIONS

Intensive glucose-control regimens are not necessarily associated with substantial weight gain. Patient characteristic associated with weight change were age, ethnicity, smoking and HbA1c. The main treatment strategies predicting weight gain were the use of insulin and thiazolidinediones.

Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

CONTEXT

A recent overview of all CVD models applicable to diabetes patients is not available.

OBJECTIVE

To review the primary prevention studies that focused on the development, validation and impact assessment of a cardiovascular risk model, scores or rules that can be applied to patients with type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Medline was searched from 1966 to 1 April 2011.

STUDY SELECTION

A study was eligible when it described the development, validation or impact assessment of a model that was constructed to predict the occurrence of cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes, or when the model was designed for use in the general population but included diabetes as a predictor.

DATA EXTRACTION

A standardized form was sued to extract all data of the CVD models.

RESULTS

45 prediction models were identified, of which 12 were specifically developed for patients with type 2 diabetes. Only 31% of the risk scores has been externally validated in a diabetes population, with an area under the curve ranging from 0.61 to 0.86 and 0.59 to 0.80 for models developed in a diabetes population and in the general population, respectively. Only one risk score has been studied for its effect on patient management and outcomes. 10% of the risk scores are advocated in national diabetes guidelines.

CONCLUSION

Many cardiovascular risk scores are available that can be applied to patients with type 2 diabetes. A minority of these risk scores has been validated and tested for its predictive accuracy, with only a few showing a discriminative value of ≥0.80. The impact of applying these risk scores in clinical practice is almost completely unknown, but their use is recommended in various national guidelines.

Maternal and paternal transmission of type 2 diabetes: influence of diet, lifestyle and adiposity

OBJECTIVE

Transmission of family history of type 2 diabetes to the next generation is stronger for maternal than paternal diabetes in some populations. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether this difference is explained by diet, lifestyle factors and/or adiposity.

METHODS

We analysed 35174 participants from the Dutch contribution to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, a prospective population-based cohort (aged 20-70 years) with a median follow-up of 10.2 years. Parental history of diabetes was self-reported. Occurrence of diabetes was mainly identified by self-report and verified by medical records.

RESULTS

Amongst 35174 participants, 799 incident cases of diabetes were observed. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for diabetes by maternal and paternal diabetes were 2.66 (2.26-3.14) and 2.40 (1.91-3.02), respectively. Maternal transmission of risk of diabetes was explained by diet (9.4%), lifestyle factors including smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and educational level (7.8%) and by adiposity, i.e. body mass index and waist and hip circumference (23.5%). For paternal transmission, the corresponding values were 2.9%, 0.0% and 9.6%. After adjustment for diet, lifestyle factors and adiposity, the HRs for maternal (2.20; 95% CI, 1.87-2.60) and paternal (2.23; 95% CI, 1.77-2.80) transmission of diabetes were comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

Both maternal and paternal diabetes are associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, independently of diet, lifestyle and adiposity. The slightly higher risk conferred by maternal compared to paternal diabetes was explained by a larger contribution of diet, lifestyle factors and adiposity.

Design and cohort description of the InterAct Project: an examination of the interaction of genetic and lifestyle factors on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Studying gene-lifestyle interaction may help to identify lifestyle factors that modify genetic susceptibility and uncover genetic loci exerting important subgroup effects. Adequately powered studies with prospective, unbiased, standardised assessment of key behavioural factors for gene-lifestyle studies are lacking. This case-cohort study aims to investigate how genetic and potentially modifiable lifestyle and behavioural factors, particularly diet and physical activity, interact in their influence on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurring in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohorts between 1991 and 2007 from eight of the ten EPIC countries were ascertained and verified. Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analyses were used to investigate differences in diabetes incidence by age and sex.

RESULTS

A total of 12,403 verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred during 3.99 million person-years of follow-up of 340,234 EPIC participants eligible for InterAct. We defined a centre-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals for comparative analyses. Individuals with incident diabetes who were randomly selected into the subcohort (n = 778) were included as cases in the analyses. All prevalent diabetes cases were excluded from the study. InterAct cases were followed-up for an average of 6.9 years; 49.7% were men. Mean baseline age and age at diagnosis were 55.6 and 62.5 years, mean BMI and waist circumference values were 29.4 kg/m(2) and 102.7 cm in men, and 30.1 kg/m(2) and 92.8 cm in women, respectively. Risk of type 2 diabetes increased linearly with age, with an overall HR of 1.56 (95% CI 1.48-1.64) for a 10 year age difference, adjusted for sex. A male excess in the risk of incident diabetes was consistently observed across all countries, with a pooled HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.39-1.64), adjusted for age.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

InterAct is a large, well-powered, prospective study that will inform our understanding of the interplay between genes and lifestyle factors on the risk of type 2 diabetes development.

Beneficial vascular risk profile is associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

Reports of increased amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) with hyperlipidaemia and elevated plasma homocysteine levels as well as cigarette-smoking and polymorphisms in angiogenic genes suggest a role for altered vascular homeostasis in ALS pathogenesis. The authors assessed the association between vascular risk factors and ALS.

METHODS

Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes and body mass index (BMI)) and cardiovascular disease prior to ALS onset established by a questionnaire were compared in 334 patients and 538 age- and sex-matched controls. Biochemical assessments (total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), hs-CRP, and homocysteine) at diagnosis were measured in blood samples of 303 patients with ALS and compared with prospectively collected data from 2100 population-based controls.

RESULTS

Patients with ALS used cholesterol-lowering agents less frequently (OR=0.6, p=0.008) and had a lower BMI (OR=0.9, p=0.001), a lower LDL/HDL ratio (women: OR=0.5, p<0.001; men: OR=0.4, p<0.001) and lower homocysteine levels (women: OR=0.9, p=0.02; men: OR=0.9, p<0.001). The mean LDL and TC levels were significantly lower among patients with a lower functional vital capacity percentage of predicted (FVC). In the univariate analysis, a higher LDL/HDL ratio correlated with increased survival (HR=0.9, p=0.04); after adjusting for the confounders age, site and FVC, no difference was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Vascular risk factors, measured clinically and biochemically, were not associated with increased ALS. Instead, patients reported less use of cholesterol-lowering medication and had a lower premorbid BMI and favourable lipid profile-all findings consistent with the hypothesis that a higher metabolic rate plays a role in ALS.

Low testosterone concentrations and the symptoms of testosterone deficiency according to the Androgen Deficiency in Ageing Males (ADAM) and Ageing Males' Symptoms rating scale (AMS) questionnaires

OBJECTIVE

First, to assess the association between the concentration of serum testosterone and the symptoms of testosterone deficiency according to two screening questionnaires. Second, to investigate the effects in elderly men with a low-normal testosterone concentration of testosterone supplementation over a period of 6 months on symptoms of testosterone deficiency according to the screening questionnaires.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 587 men between 60 and 80 years of age with an eligible serum testosterone measurement and completion of the screening questionnaires were included in the study. Of these 587 men, 237 men with testosterone levels <13·7 nmol/l were included in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of testosterone supplementation.

INTERVENTION

One hundred and sixty milligrams per day of oral testosterone undecanoate or a matching placebo for 6 months.

MEASUREMENTS

The Androgen Deficiency in Ageing Males (ADAM) and the Ageing Males' Symptoms rating scale (AMS) questionnaires.

RESULTS

There was no significant association between the total testosterone concentration and the scores on the two questionnaires. However, age was significantly associated with the scores on the ADAM (OR 1·14, 95% CI 1·05-1·23) and the AMS (OR 1·03, 95% CI 1·01-1·08) questionnaire. After supplementation with testosterone, there were no effects on the scores on the two questionnaires in the testosterone group compared with the placebo group.

CONCLUSION

The findings do not support the use of the ADAM or AMS questionnaire in the evaluation of late-onset hypogonadism in ageing men. Moreover, 6 months of oral testosterone supplementation had no significant effect on scores of the ADAM and AMS questionnaire in this group of elderly men with low-normal testosterone levels.

External validation of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine in patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Treatment guidelines recommend the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine for predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes, although validation studies showed moderate performance. The methods used in these validation studies were diverse, however, and sometimes insufficient. Hence, we assessed the discrimination and calibration of the UKPDS risk engine to predict 4, 5, 6 and 8 year cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

The cohort included 1,622 patients with type 2 diabetes. During a mean follow-up of 8 years, patients were followed for incidence of CHD and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Discrimination and calibration were assessed for 4, 5, 6 and 8 year risk. Discrimination was examined using the c-statistic and calibration by visually inspecting calibration plots and calculating the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) statistic.

RESULTS

The UKPDS risk engine showed moderate to poor discrimination for both CHD and CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 for both 5 year CHD and CVD risks), and an overestimation of the risk (224% and 112%). The calibration of the UKPDS risk engine was slightly better for patients with type 2 diabetes who had been diagnosed with diabetes more than 10 years ago compared with patients diagnosed more recently, particularly for 4 and 5 year predicted CVD and CHD risks. Discrimination for these periods was still moderate to poor.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

We observed that the UKPDS risk engine overestimates CHD and CVD risk. The discriminative ability of this model is moderate, irrespective of various subgroup analyses. To enhance the prediction of CVD in patients with type 2 diabetes, this model should be updated.

Non-fasting lipids and risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes mellitus

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of postprandial time on the associations and predictive value of non-fasting lipid levels and cardiovascular disease risk in participants with diabetes.

METHODS

This study was conducted among 1,337 participants with diabetes from the Dutch and German (Potsdam) contributions to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. At baseline, total cholesterol, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol and triacylglycerol concentrations were measured and the ratio of total cholesterol/HDL-cholesterol was calculated. Participants were followed for incidence of cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Lipid concentrations changed minimally with increasing postprandial time, except for triacylglycerol which was elevated just after a meal and declined over time (1.86 at 0.1 h to 1.33 at >6 h, p for trend <0.001). During a mean follow-up of 8 years, 116 cardiovascular events were documented. After adjustment for potential confounders, triacylglycerol (HR for third tertile compared with first tertile (HR(t)₃(to)₁), 1.73 [95% CI 1.04, 2.87]), HDL-cholesterol (HR(t)₃(to)₁, 0.41 [95% CI 0.23, 0.72]) and total cholesterol/HDL-cholesterol ratio (HR(t)₃(to)₁, 1.65 [95% CI 0.95, 2.85]) were associated with cardiovascular disease, independent of postprandial time. Cardiovascular disease risk prediction using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine was not affected by postprandial time.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Postprandial time did not affect associations between lipid concentrations and cardiovascular disease risk in patients with diabetes, nor did it influence prediction of cardiovascular disease. Therefore, it may not be necessary to use fasting blood samples to determine lipid concentrations for cardiovascular disease risk prediction in patients with diabetes.