Reproductive health, population growth, economic development and environmental change

World population will increase by 1000 million, or by 20%, within 10 years. Ninety-five per cent of this increase will occur in the South, in areas that are already economically, environmentally and politically fragile. Morbidity and mortality associated with reproduction will be greater in the current decade than in any period in human history. Annually, 40-60 million pregnancies will be terminated and 5-10 million children will die within one year of birth. AIDS-related infections, e.g. tuberculosis, will undermine health care in Africa (and elsewhere) and in places AIDS-related deaths will decimate the work-force. The growth in population and associated morbidity will inhibit global economic development and spawn new problems. The key issues are migration, the spread of disease, the supply of water and the degradation of land, and fiscal policies with respect to family planning, pharmaceuticals and Third-World debt. Full education, particularly of women, and more effective family planning in the South have the power to unlock the problem. Failure will see the developed countries, with their 800 million population, swamped by the health, economic and environmental problems of the South, with its projected population of 5400 million people for the year 2000.

Subsistence crop deficit and family structure in Sub-Saharan Africa

The author seeks to provide demographic explanations for the current food crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa. "In the present paper, we will consider the possibility that one of these [explanations] may lie in the way African families are structured, particularly in countries that are still in the first stage of the demographic transition. More specifically, we will examine the following two assumptions: the effects which the rural-urban migration...has on food production may be amplified by the way family labour is divided between the sexes and the different age groups; [and] lower mortality increases the size of the kin group, while rural-urban migration decreases the proportion of family members engaged in agricultural production, thus perturbing the distribution and consumption of subsistence foods."

[History and future of population movements]

This is a general historical review of global migration trends in the modern era. "The emigration to the New Worlds was in large part due to the demographic pressure within the European continent from the eighteenth century onwards. Up until the thirties a 'Europeanisation' of the planet took place. From this time onwards, migratory movements have tended to reverse, and Europe, as well as East Asian countries with low birth rates, have in turn become territories of immigration." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Population, environment and security: a new trinity

This paper critically examines the literature which claims that internal conflict in Africa, Asia and Latin America is often the result of population pressures and resource scarcities, focusing particularly on the work of Thomas Homer-Dixon. This literature largely fails to consider the underlying economic and political causes of environmental degradation and violence, including the role of international companies, development assistance agencies and militaries. Yet, as the paper describes, this literature has a growing influence. It provides a convenient rationale for sustaining US military expenditures which are threatened by the end of the Cold War and gives hardliners in the population control lobby a justification for moving away from the new, broader focus on reproductive health back to more coercive population policies. It has also been used by journalists such as Robert Kaplan to present inaccurate and racist images of Africa. The paper ends with a discussion of why it is important to challenge this ideology before it exercises a firmer hold on public policy and consciousness, not least because it leads to negative stereotypes of women and “peasant” farmers and could lead to the militarization of environmental policy.

Environmental motivations for migration: population pressure, poverty, and deforestation in the Philippines

"This paper uses a multinomial discrete choice model and data from the Philippines to examine migrant choice between alternative destinations. Travel costs and perceived opportunities at the upland frontier are more important than general (upland plus lowland) destination attributes that indicate more developed social infrastructure or greater expected welfare. For example, migration streams are larger to destinations where the public share of forestland and the road system are larger. These features also characterize regions of more rapid deforestation. Therefore, emigration policies must recognize their effects on deforestation at the frontier--and their anticipated indirect effects on downstream environments."

Population growth to put pressure on some food supplies

Continued high population growth in developing countries is likely to lead to intense pressure to produce more rice, according to estimates from the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Ms. Mercedita Sombilla, a research scientist with IRRI, said that the projected increase in Asia's population will be the major force in accelerating demand for rice. According to various issues of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of the region will have increased from 3.3 billion in 1995 to almost 4.6 billion in 2020. The greatest growth in demand is expected to come from the lower-income countries of Asia, such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam, she said. However, in terms of overall food supplies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that food supplies will be sufficient. "Expecting reasonably strong productivity growth to be sustainable, no global food crisis seems likely to occur" between now and 2020, the organization stated in its report entitled "The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age".

Lysenkoism and the population control movement

The case of Lysenkoism in the Soviet Union helps us understand how people's wrong beliefs can be influenced by what the information they receive from outside, especially when there is a large volume of media coverage and there is no contrary information to be heard. The population control movement in contemporary United States has many parallels to the Lysenko episode.

Analysis of the impact of population growth in Henan Province on its environment and ecosystem

"This paper analyzes the effects of population growth on the...environment and ecosystem [of China's Henan Province]. This paper also proposes a key countermeasure to deal with the population growth and environmental improvement of Henan Province."

Environmental and ethical aspects of international migration

"U.S. immigration policy has a beneficent intent. However, recent work suggests that the signal it sends internationally--that emigration can be relied upon to relieve local (Third World) population pressure--tends to maintain high fertility rates in the sending country. This effect is counterproductive because high fertility is the primary driver of rapid population growth. In addition, it appears that the relatively open U.S. immigration policy has resulted in a rate of domestic population growth that threatens both the well-being of American labor and cherished environmental values."