Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review

The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8-80·6; I2=93%). We identify epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history, for which there are few estimates. This systematic review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of Marburg virus disease epidemiology and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future Marburg virus disease epidemic responses.

Marburg virus disease outbreak in Kween District Uganda, 2017: Epidemiological and laboratory findings

INTRODUCTION

In October 2017, a blood sample from a resident of Kween District, Eastern Uganda, tested positive for Marburg virus. Within 24 hour of confirmation, a rapid outbreak response was initiated. Here, we present results of epidemiological and laboratory investigations.

METHODS

A district task force was activated consisting of specialised teams to conduct case finding, case management and isolation, contact listing and follow up, sample collection and testing, and community engagement. An ecological investigation was also carried out to identify the potential source of infection. Virus isolation and Next Generation sequencing were performed to identify the strain of Marburg virus.

RESULTS

Seventy individuals (34 MVD suspected cases and 36 close contacts of confirmed cases) were epidemiologically investigated, with blood samples tested for MVD. Only four cases met the MVD case definition; one was categorized as a probable case while the other three were confirmed cases. A total of 299 contacts were identified; during follow- up, two were confirmed as MVD. Of the four confirmed and probable MVD cases, three died, yielding a case fatality rate of 75%. All four cases belonged to a single family and 50% (2/4) of the MVD cases were female. All confirmed cases had clinical symptoms of fever, vomiting, abdominal pain and bleeding from body orifices. Viral sequences indicated that the Marburg virus strain responsible for this outbreak was closely related to virus strains previously shown to be circulating in Uganda.

CONCLUSION

This outbreak of MVD occurred as a family cluster with no additional transmission outside of the four related cases. Rapid case detection, prompt laboratory testing at the Uganda National VHF Reference Laboratory and presence of pre-trained, well-prepared national and district rapid response teams facilitated the containment and control of this outbreak within one month, preventing nationwide and global transmission of the disease.

Monoclonal Antibody Cocktail Protects Hamsters From Lethal Marburg Virus Infection

Marburg virus (MARV), family Filoviridae, causes Marburg hemorrhagic fever (MHF) in humans and nonhuman primates with case fatality rates of up to 90%. There is no approved therapeutic for MHF, yet several experimental approaches have been evaluated in preclinical studies including small interfering RNA and monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment. In this study we attempted to improve the therapeutic efficacy of the neutralizing mAb M4 by combining treatment with 1 or 2 of blocking but nonneutralizing mAbs 126-15 and 127-8. We found that single-dose treatment early after infection with the neutralizing mAb M4 or any of the mAb combinations resulted in similar protection in the MARV hamster model. However, a single-dose treatment with the cocktail of all 3 mAbs provided the best protection in delayed treatment, with 67%-100% of the animals surviving a lethal challenge depending on the time of treatment. This study identified a new promising mAb cocktail as a therapeutic option for MHF.

The Calcium Channel Blocker Bepridil Demonstrates Efficacy in the Murine Model of Marburg Virus Disease

No therapeutics are approved for the treatment of filovirus infections. Bepridil, a calcium channel blocker developed for treating angina, was identified as a potent inhibitor of filoviruses in vitro, including Ebola and Marburg viruses, and Ebola virus in vivo. We evaluated the efficacy of bepridil in a lethal mouse model of Marburg virus disease. A dose of 12 mg/kg bepridil once or twice daily resulted in 80% or 90% survival, respectively. These data confirm bepridil's broad-spectrum anti-filovirus activity warranting further investigation of bepridil, or improved compounds with a similar mechanism, as a pan-filovirus therapeutic agent.

Catching Chances: The Movement to Be on the Ground and Research Ready before an Outbreak

After more than 28,000 Ebola virus disease cases and at least 11,000 deaths in West Africa during the 2014⁻2016 epidemic, the world remains without a licensed vaccine or therapeutic broadly available and demonstrated to alleviate suffering. This deficiency has been felt acutely in the two, short, following years with two Ebola virus outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and a Marburg virus outbreak in Uganda. Despite billions of U.S. dollars invested in developing medical countermeasures for filoviruses in the antecedent decades, resulting in an array of preventative, diagnostic, and therapeutic products, none are available on commercial shelves. This paper explores why just-in-time research efforts in the field during the West Africa epidemic failed, as well as some recent initiatives to prevent similarly lost opportunities.

Presence and Persistence of Ebola or Marburg Virus in Patients and Survivors: A Rapid Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

The 2013-15 Ebola outbreak was unprecedented due to sustained transmission within urban environments and thousands of survivors. In 2014 the World Health Organization stated that there was insufficient evidence to give definitive guidance about which body fluids are infectious and when they pose a risk to humans. We report a rapid systematic review of published evidence on the presence of filoviruses in body fluids of infected people and survivors.

METHODS

Scientific articles were screened for information about filovirus in human body fluids. The aim was to find primary data that suggested high likelihood of actively infectious filovirus in human body fluids (viral RNA). Eligible infections were from Marburg virus (MARV or RAVV) and Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest and Bundibugyo species of Ebola. Cause of infection had to be laboratory confirmed (in practice either tissue culture or RT-PCR tests), or evidenced by compatible clinical history with subsequent positivity for filovirus antibodies or inflammatory factors. Data were extracted and summarized narratively.

RESULTS

6831 unique articles were found, and after screening, 33 studies were eligible. For most body fluid types there were insufficient patients to draw strong conclusions, and prevalence of positivity was highly variable. Body fluids taken >16 days after onset were usually negative. In the six studies that used both assay methods RT-PCR tests for filovirus RNA gave positive results about 4 times more often than tissue culture.

CONCLUSIONS

Filovirus was reported in most types of body fluid, but not in every sample from every otherwise confirmed patient. Apart from semen, most non-blood, RT-PCR positive samples are likely to be culture negative and so possibly of low infectious risk. Nevertheless, it is not apparent how relatively infectious many body fluids are during or after illness, even when culture-positive, not least because most test results come from more severe cases. Contact with blood and blood-stained body fluids remains the major risk for disease transmission because of the known high viral loads in blood.

AVI-7288 for Marburg Virus in Nonhuman Primates and Humans

BACKGROUND

AVI-7288 is a phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomer with positive charges that targets the viral messenger RNA that encodes Marburg virus (MARV) nucleoprotein. Its safety in humans is undetermined.

METHODS

We assessed the efficacy of AVI-7288 in a series of studies involving a lethal challenge with MARV in nonhuman primates. The safety of AVI-7288 was evaluated in a randomized, multiple-ascending-dose study in which 40 healthy humans (8 humans per dose group) received 14 once-daily infusions of AVI-7288 (1 mg, 4 mg, 8 mg, 12 mg, or 16 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo, in a 3:1 ratio. We estimated the protective dose in humans by comparing pharmacokinetic variables in infected nonhuman primates, uninfected nonhuman primates, and uninfected humans.

RESULTS

Survival in infected nonhuman primates was dose-dependent, with survival rates of 0%, 30%, 59%, 87%, 100%, and 100% among monkeys treated with 0 mg, 3.75 mg, 7.5 mg, 15 mg, 20 mg, and 30 mg of AVI-7288 per kilogram, respectively (P<0.001 with the use of the log-rank test for the comparison of survival across groups). No safety concern was identified at doses up to 16 mg per kilogram per day in humans. No serious adverse events were reported. Drug exposure (the area under the curve) was dose-dependent in both nonhuman primates and humans; drug clearance was independent of dose but was higher in nonhuman primates than in humans. The protective dose in humans was initially estimated, on the basis of exposure, to be 9.6 mg per kilogram per day (95% confidence interval, 6.6 to 12.5) for 14 days. Monte Carlo simulations supported a dose of 11 mg per kilogram per day to match the geometric mean protective exposure in nonhuman primates.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that, on the basis of efficacy in nonhuman primates and pharmacokinetic data in humans, AVI-7288 has potential as postexposure prophylaxis for MARV infection in humans. (Funded by the Department of Defense; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01566877.).

[Marburg and Ebola hemorrhagic fevers--pathogens, epidemiology and therapy]

Marburg and Ebola hemorrhagic fevers are severe, systemic viral diseases affecting humans and non-human primates. They are characterized by multiple symptoms such as hemorrhages, fever, headache, muscle and abdominal pain, chills, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. Elevated liver-associated enzyme levels and coagulopathy are also associated with these diseases. Marburg and Ebola hemorrhagic fevers are caused by (Lake victoria) Marburg virus and different species of Ebola viruses, respectively. They are enveloped, single-stranded RNA viruses and belong to the family of filoviridae. Case fatality rates of filovirus disease outbreaks are among the highest reported for any human pathogen, ranging from 25 to 90% or more. Outbreaks of Marburg and Ebola hemorrhagic fever occur in certain regions of equatorial Africa at irregular intervals. Since 2000, the number of outbreaks has increased. In 2014, the biggest outbreak of a filovirus-induced hemorrhagic fever that has been documented so far occurred from March to July 2014 in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria. The outbreak was caused by a new variant of Zaire Ebola-Virus, affected more than 2600 people (stated 20 August) and was associated with case-fatality rates of up to 67% (Guinea). Treatment of Marburg and Ebola hemorrhagic fevers is symptomatic and supportive, licensed antiviral agents are currently not available. Recently, BCX4430, a promising synthetic adenosine analogue with high in vitro and in vivo activity against filoviruses and other RNA viruses, has been described. BCX4430 inhibits viral RNA polymerase activity and protects cynomolgus macaques from Marburg virus infection when administered as late as 48 hours after infection. Nucleic acid-based products, recombinant vaccines and antibodies appear to be less suitable for the treatment of Marburg and Ebola hemorrhagic fevers.

Discovery and early development of AVI-7537 and AVI-7288 for the treatment of Ebola virus and Marburg virus infections

There are no currently approved treatments for filovirus infections. In this study we report the discovery process which led to the development of antisense Phosphorodiamidate Morpholino Oligomers (PMOs) AVI-6002 (composed of AVI-7357 and AVI-7539) and AVI-6003 (composed of AVI-7287 and AVI-7288) targeting Ebola virus and Marburg virus respectively. The discovery process involved identification of optimal transcript binding sites for PMO based RNA-therapeutics followed by screening for effective viral gene target in mouse and guinea pig models utilizing adapted viral isolates. An evolution of chemical modifications were tested, beginning with simple Phosphorodiamidate Morpholino Oligomers (PMO) transitioning to cell penetrating peptide conjugated PMOs (PPMO) and ending with PMOplus containing a limited number of positively charged linkages in the PMO structure. The initial lead compounds were combinations of two agents targeting separate genes. In the final analysis, a single agent for treatment of each virus was selected, AVI-7537 targeting the VP24 gene of Ebola virus and AVI-7288 targeting NP of Marburg virus, and are now progressing into late stage clinical development as the optimal therapeutic candidates.

[Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever viruses: update on filoviruses]

The Ebola and Marburg viruses are the sole members of the Filoviridae family of viruses. They are characterized by a long filamentous form that is unique in the viral world. Filoviruses are among the most virulent pathogens currently known to infect humans. They cause fulminating disease characterized by acute fever followed by generalized hemorrhagic syndrome that is associated with 90% mortality in the most severe forms. Epidemic outbreaks of Marburg and Ebola viruses have taken a heavy toll on human life in Central Africa and devastated large ape populations in Gabon and Republic of Congo. Since their discovery in 1967 (Marburg) and 1976 (Ebola), more than 2,300 cases and 1,670 deaths have been reported. These numbers pale in comparison with the burden caused by malnutrition or other infectious disease scourges in Africa such as malaria, cholera, AIDS, dengue or tuberculosis. However, due to their extremely high lethality, association with multifocal hemorrhaging and specificity to the African continent, these hemorrhagic fever viruses have given rise to great interest on the part not only of the international scientific community but also of the general public because of their perceived potential as biological weapons. Much research has been performed on these viruses and major progress has been made in knowledge of their ecology, epidemiology and physiopathology and in development of vaccine candidates and therapeutic schemes. The purpose of this review is to present the main developments in these particular fields in the last decade.

Marburg hemorrhagic fever associated with multiple genetic lineages of virus

BACKGROUND

An outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever was first observed in a gold-mining village in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo in October 1998.

METHODS

We investigated the outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever most intensively in May and October 1999. Sporadic cases and short chains of human-to-human transmission continued to occur until September 2000. Suspected cases were identified on the basis of a case definition; cases were confirmed by the detection of virus antigen and nucleic acid in blood, cell culture, antibody responses, and immunohistochemical analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 154 cases (48 laboratory-confirmed and 106 suspected) were identified (case fatality rate, 83 percent); 52 percent of cases were in young male miners. Only 27 percent of these men reported having had contact with other affected persons, whereas 67 percent of patients who were not miners reported such contact (P<0.001). Most of the affected miners (94 percent) worked in an underground mine. Cessation of the outbreak coincided with flooding of the mine. Epidemiologic evidence of multiple introductions of infection into the population was substantiated by the detection of at least nine genetically distinct lineages of virus in circulation during the outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

Marburg hemorrhagic fever can have a very high case fatality rate. Since multiple genetic variants of virus were identified, ongoing introduction of virus into the population helped perpetuate this outbreak. The findings imply that reservoir hosts of Marburg virus inhabit caves, mines, or similar habitats.

Activation of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 on human neutrophils by marburg and ebola viruses

Marburg virus (MARV) and Ebola virus (EBOV), members of the viral family Filoviridae, cause fatal hemorrhagic fevers in humans and nonhuman primates. High viral burden is coincident with inadequate adaptive immune responses and robust inflammatory responses, and virus-mediated dysregulation of early host defenses has been proposed. Recently, a novel class of innate receptors called the triggering receptors expressed in myeloid cells (TREM) has been discovered and shown to play an important role in innate inflammatory responses and sepsis. Here, we report that MARV and EBOV activate TREM-1 on human neutrophils, resulting in DAP12 phosphorylation, TREM-1 shedding, mobilization of intracellular calcium, secretion of proinflammatory cytokines, and phenotypic changes. A peptide specific to TREM-1 diminished the release of tumor necrosis factor alpha by filovirus-activated human neutrophils in vitro, and a soluble recombinant TREM-1 competitively inhibited the loss of cell surface TREM-1 that otherwise occurred on neutrophils exposed to filoviruses. These data imply direct activation of TREM-1 by filoviruses and also indicate that neutrophils may play a prominent role in the immune and inflammatory responses to filovirus infections.

Marburgvirus genomics and association with a large hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Angola

In March 2005, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) investigated a large hemorrhagic fever (HF) outbreak in Uige Province in northern Angola, West Africa. In total, 15 initial specimens were sent to CDC, Atlanta, Ga., for testing for viruses associated with viral HFs known to be present in West Africa, including ebolavirus. Marburgvirus was also included despite the fact that the origins of all earlier outbreaks were linked directly to East Africa. Surprisingly, marburgvirus was confirmed (12 of 15 specimens) as the cause of the outbreak. The outbreak likely began in October 2004 and ended in July 2005, and it included 252 cases and 227 (90%) fatalities (report from the Ministry of Health, Republic of Angola, 2005), making it the largest Marburg HF outbreak on record. A real-time quantitative reverse transcription-PCR assay utilized and adapted during the outbreak proved to be highly sensitive and sufficiently robust for field use. Partial marburgvirus RNA sequence analysis revealed up to 21% nucleotide divergence among the previously characterized East African strains, with the most distinct being Ravn from Kenya (1987). The Angolan strain was less different ( approximately 7%) from the main group of East African marburgviruses than one might expect given the large geographic separation. To more precisely analyze the virus genetic differences between outbreaks and among viruses within the Angola outbreak itself, a total of 16 complete virus genomes were determined, including those of the virus isolates Ravn (Kenya, 1987) and 05DRC, 07DRC, and 09DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo, 1998) and the reference Angolan virus isolate (Ang1379v). In addition, complete genome sequences were obtained from RNAs extracted from 10 clinical specimens reflecting various stages of the disease and locations within the Angolan outbreak. While the marburgviruses exhibit high overall genetic diversity (up to 22%), only 6.8% nucleotide difference was found between the West African Angolan viruses and the majority of East African viruses, suggesting that the virus reservoir species in these regions are not substantially distinct. Remarkably few nucleotide differences were found among the Angolan clinical specimens (0 to 0.07%), consistent with an outbreak scenario in which a single (or rare) introduction of virus from the reservoir species into the human population was followed by person-to-person transmission with little accumulation of mutations. This is in contrast to the 1998 to 2000 marburgvirus outbreak, where evidence of several virus genetic lineages (with up to 21% divergence) and multiple virus introductions into the human population was found.

Other viral bioweapons: Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever

The term viral hemorrhagic fever refers to a clinical syndrome characterized by acute onset of fever accompanied by nonspecific findings of malaise, prostration, diarrhea,and headache. Patients frequently show signs of increased vascular permeability, and many develop bleeding diatheses. The hemorrhagic fever viruses represent potential agents for biologic warfare because of capability of aerosol transmission, high morbidity,and mortality associated with infection, and ability to replicate in cell culture in high concentrations. Herein we discuss the Filoviridae, the agents of Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fevers.

Characterization of monoclonal antibodies to Marburg virus (strain Musoke) glycoprotein and identification of two protective epitopes

Monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) reactive with Marburg virus (strain Musoke) were evaluated for both biological activity and specificity. Several of the Marburg virus- (MBGV) specific MAbs reduced the size and/or number of MBGV plaques in vitro. The ability of the MAbs to affect plaque formation in vitro was demonstrated to be specific for the glycoprotein (GP) of the strain of MBGV used for vaccination. Using deletion analysis and peptide mapping, the binding epitopes of several of these neutralizing MAbs were identified. Not unexpectedly, the epitopes were shown to lie in the most hypervariable and highly glycosylated region of MBGV GP. An analysis of the in vivo activity of several MAbs revealed that some antibodies provided substantial but incomplete protection of naive guinea pigs by passive transfer. These data suggest that neutralizing epitopes exist within MBGV GP but that induction of antibodies to these neutralizing epitopes may not be sufficient for protection from lethal infection.

Marburg virus vaccines based upon alphavirus replicons protect guinea pigs and nonhuman primates

Marburg virus (MBGV), for which no vaccines or treatments currently exist, causes an acute hemorrhagic fever with a high mortality rate in humans. We previously showed that immunization with either killed MBGV or a glycoprotein (GP) subunit prevented lethal infection in guinea pigs. In the studies reported here, an RNA replicon, based upon Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, was used as a vaccine vector; the VEE structural genes were replaced by genes for MBGV GP, nucleoprotein (NP), VP40, VP35, VP30, or VP24. Guinea pigs were vaccinated with recombinant VEE replicons (packaged into VEE-like particles), inoculated with MBGV, and evaluated for viremia and survival. Results indicated that either GP or NP were protective antigens while VP35 afforded incomplete protection. As a more definitive test of vaccine efficacy, nonhuman primates (cynomolgus macaques) were inoculated with VEE replicons expressing MBGV GP and/or NP. Three monkeys received packaged control replicons (influenza HA); these died 9 or 10 days after challenge, with typical MBGV disease. MBGV NP afforded incomplete protection, sufficient to prevent death but not disease in two of three macaques. Three monkeys vaccinated with replicons which expressed MBGV GP, and three others vaccinated with both replicons that expressed GP or NP, remained aviremic and were completely protected from disease.

[The efficacy of the emergency prophylactic and therapeutic actions of immunomodulators in experimental filovirus infections]

The study of the preventive and therapeutic action of some immunomodulators (ridostin, reaferon and polyribonate) used alone and in combinations was conducted on laboratory animals infected aerogenically by Marburg or Ebola virus. It was found that special preventive intranasal and intramuscular administration of ridostin provided protection of the animals infected by Marburg virus (p = 0.1) and an increase in their mean lifespan by 2.4 days (p = 0.15). In the Ebola infection combined administration of ridostin and reaferon caused an essential increase in the mean lifespan of the animals by 2.9 days (p = 0.04). None of the tested drugs had any significant positive effect when used in various combinations according to the treatment schemes in Marburg and Ebola infections in guinea pigs.