Effects of Confounding Bias in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Test-Negative Designs Due to Correlated Influenza and COVID-19 Vaccination Behaviors

Interim Estimates of 2024-2025 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness - Four Vaccine Effectiveness Networks, United States, October 2024-February 2025

Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months in the United States. Interim influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated among patients with acute respiratory illness-associated outpatient visits and hospitalizations from four VE networks during the 2024-25 influenza season (October 2024-February 2025). Among children and adolescents aged <18 years, VE against any influenza was 32%, 59%, and 60% in the outpatient setting in three networks, and against influenza-associated hospitalization was 63% and 78% in two networks. Among adults aged ≥18 years, VE in the outpatient setting was 36% and 54% in two networks and was 41% and 55% against hospitalization in two networks. Preliminary estimates indicate that receipt of the 2024-2025 influenza vaccine reduced the likelihood of medically attended influenza and influenza-associated hospitalization. CDC recommends annual receipt of an age-appropriate influenza vaccine by all eligible persons aged ≥6 months as long as influenza viruses continue to circulate locally.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing confirmed influenza cases and hospitalizations in Northern Spain, 2023/24 season: A population-based test-negative case-control study

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the influenza vaccination effectiveness (IVE) in preventing medical consultations and hospitalizations due to influenza during the 2023/24 season.

METHODS

Two test-negative case-control studies analyzed patients who consulted primary healthcare or were hospitalized for respiratory symptoms and were tested for influenza by PCR in the 2023/24 season in Navarre, Spain. Influenza vaccination status in the current and previous seasons was compared between confirmed influenza cases and test-negative controls. IVE was calculated as (1-adjusted odds ratio)×100.

RESULTS

Of 3133 hospitalized patients, 529 (17%) were positive for influenza: 71% A/H1N1, 23% A/H3N2, and 7% A nonsubtyped. IVE to prevent hospitalizations was 43% (95%CI: 26%, 56%) overall, 61% (95%CI: 32%, 77%) in people younger than 65 years old and 35% (95%CI: 10%, 53%) in older people. IVE was 48% (95%CI: 30%, 61%) against influenza A/H1N1, and 15% (95%CI: -42%, 49%) against influenza A/H3N2. IVE in people vaccinated only in the previous season was 28% (95%CI: -5%, 51%). Among 417 outpatients, 146 (35%) were confirmed for influenza. IVE to prevent outpatient cases was 49% (95%CI: -9%, 76%) overall and 42% (95%CI: -33%, 74%) against influenza A/H1N1.

CONCLUSIONS

IVE was moderate against influenza A/H1N1 and low against influenza A/H3N2 in the 2023/24 season.

Effectiveness of 2023 southern hemisphere influenza vaccines against severe influenza-associated illness: pooled estimates from eight countries using the test-negative design

BACKGROUND

Annual estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness can guide global risk communication and vaccination strategies to mitigate influenza-associated illness. We aimed to evaluate vaccine effectiveness in countries using the 2023 southern hemisphere influenza vaccine formulation.

METHODS

We evaluated end-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness across eight countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, Paraguay, Thailand, and Uruguay) that used the 2023 southern hemisphere vaccine formulation, with use of a test-negative design. All patients who attended participating hospitals with severe acute respiratory illness were tested by RT-PCR for influenza. We calculated country-specific, network-specific, and pooled vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation. For countries with sufficient data, we also calculated vaccine effectiveness against intensive care unit (ICU) admission by comparing the odds of vaccination among test-positive cases to that among test-negative controls. We evaluated vaccine effectiveness for groups prioritised for vaccination (young children aged 1-4 years, people aged 5-64 years with underlying health conditions, and older adults aged ≥65 years).

FINDINGS

From March 5 to Nov 27, 2023, 31 368 individuals were admitted to hospital with severe acute respiratory infection in the eight included countries. Of these, 12 609 individuals admitted to hospital (6452 [51·2%] female and 6157 [48·8%] male) who met inclusion criteria and had complete data were included in the analysis, including 4388 test-positive cases and 8221 test-negative controls. Pooled vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation with any influenza virus was 51·9% (95% CI 37·2-66·7), with substantial heterogeneity across countries (I2 74%). Vaccine effectiveness against ICU admission from any influenza virus was 67·7% (44·5-81·2) in Chile and 69·7% (45·3-83·3) in Australia. Vaccine effectiveness estimates against hospitalisation were highest for young children (70·9% [47·5-94·4]) and lowest for older adults (47·7% [24·9-70·5]).

INTERPRETATION

Across eight countries, 2023 southern hemisphere vaccines were effective in reducing hospitalisations from influenza illness. Use of common protocols can facilitate data pooling to provide a comprehensive evaluation of vaccine effectiveness across settings.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cooperative agreements to the Pan American Health Organization and the Thailand Ministry of Public Health; the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care; and the New Zealand Ministry of Health.

A framework for monitoring RSV prevention product effectiveness in the United States

During 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the first respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) immunizations intended for widespread use in the United States to prevent severe RSV illness in infants and older adults. CDC, in collaboration with federal, public health, and academic partners, is conducting evaluations of real-world effectiveness of recommended RSV immunization products in the United States. Similar frameworks for evaluation are being applied to RSV vaccines and nirsevimab, a long-acting preventative monoclonal antibody, to estimate product effectiveness. The overall goal of CDC's RSV immunization effectiveness program is to generate timely and robust evidence through observational studies to inform immunization product policy decisions and other measures related to RSV prevention and control. CDC is evaluating effectiveness through high-quality, well-controlled observational studies leveraging a variety of platforms that provide robust data to inform policy decisions.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended outpatient illness, United States, 2023-24 season

BACKGROUND

The 2023-24 U.S. influenza season was characterized by a predominance of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulation with co-circulation of A(H3N2) and B/Victoria viruses. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the United States against mild-to-moderate medically attended influenza illness in the 2023-24 season.

METHODS

We enrolled outpatients aged ≥8 months with acute respiratory illness in 7 states. Respiratory specimens were tested for influenza type/subtype by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Influenza VE was estimated with a test-negative design comparing odds of testing positive for influenza among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants. We estimated VE by virus sub-type/lineage and A(H1N1)pdm09 genetic subclades.

RESULTS

Among 6,589 enrolled patients, 1,770 (27%) tested positive for influenza including 796 A(H1N1)pdm09, 563 B/Victoria, and 323 A(H3N2). Vaccine effectiveness against any influenza illness was 41% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 32 to 49): 28% (95% CI: 13 to 40) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 68% (95% CI: 59 to 76) against B/Victoria, and 30% (95% CI: 9 to 47) against A(H3N2). Statistically significant protection against any influenza was found for all age groups except adults aged 50-64 years. Lack of protection in this age group was specific to influenza A-associated illness. We observed differences in VE by birth cohort and A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genetic subclade.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination reduced outpatient medically attended influenza overall by 41% and provided protection overall against circulating influenza A and B viruses. Serologic studies would help inform differences observed by age groups.

Assessment and mitigation of bias in influenza and COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness analyses - IVY Network, September 1, 2022-March 30, 2023

BACKGROUND

In test-negative studies of vaccine effectiveness (VE), including patients with co-circulating, vaccine-preventable, respiratory pathogens in the control group for the pathogen of interest can introduce a downward bias on VE estimates.

METHODS

A multicenter sentinel surveillance network in the US prospectively enrolled adults hospitalized with acute respiratory illness from September 1, 2022-March 31, 2023. We evaluated bias in estimates of VE against influenza-associated and COVID-19-associated hospitalization based on: inclusion vs exclusion of patients with a co-circulating virus among VE controls; observance of VE against the co-circulating virus (rather than the virus of interest), unadjusted and adjusted for vaccination against the virus of interest; and observance of influenza or COVID-19 against a sham outcome of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

RESULTS

Overall VE against influenza-associated hospitalizations was 6 percentage points lower when patients with COVID-19 were included in the control group, and overall VE against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations was 2 percentage points lower when patients with influenza were included in the control group. Analyses of VE against the co-circulating virus and against the sham outcome of RSV showed that downward bias was largely attributable the correlation of vaccination status across pathogens, but also potentially attributable to other sources of residual confounding in VE models.

CONCLUSION

Excluding cases of confounding respiratory pathogens from the control group in VE analysis for a pathogen of interest can reduce downward bias. This real-world analysis demonstrates that such exclusion is a helpful bias mitigation strategy, especially for measuring influenza VE, which included a high proportion of COVID-19 cases among controls.

Interim estimates of vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) during a delayed influenza season, Canada, 2024/25

The Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN) reports interim 2024/25 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against acute respiratory illness due to laboratory-confirmed influenza during a delayed season of predominant A(H1N1)pdm09 and lower A(H3N2) co-circulation. Through mid-January, the risk of outpatient illness due to influenza A is reduced by about half among vaccinated vs unvaccinated individuals. Adjusted VE is 53% (95% CI: 36-65) against A(H1N1)pdm09, comprised of clades 5a.2a and 5a.2a.1, and 54% (95% CI: 29-70) against A(H3N2), virtually all clade 2a.3a.1.

Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted vaccine against COVID-19 hospitalization related to the JN.1 variant in Europe: a test-negative case-control study using the id.DRIVE platform

Background

Prior studies have reported lower effectiveness of XBB.1.5-adapted vaccines against hospitalization related to the Omicron JN.1 variant than the XBB variant. This study evaluated the effectiveness and durability of the BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted vaccine against JN.1-related hospitalization during the 2023-2024 season in Europe.

Methods

A test-negative case-control study was carried out in adults (≥18 y) hospitalized between 2 October 2023 and 2 April 2024 with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) within the id.DRIVE partnership. This study included nine sites across Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Cases had a laboratory-confirmed JN.1 infection or a positive SARS-CoV-2 test with symptom onset during JN.1 predominance; controls had a negative SARS-CoV-2 test and symptom onset during JN.1 predominance. The primary objective was to estimate BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalization. One case was matched with up to four controls, according to symptom onset date and site. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for symptom onset date, age, sex, and number of chronic conditions.

Findings

Among 308 test-positive cases and 1117 test-negative controls, BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted VE against hospitalization compared to no vaccination this season was 53.8% (95% CI 38.4-65.4) after a median of 63 days following vaccination. Protection was sustained through five months; VE was 52.2% (95% CI 41.3-61.1) 2 to <4 weeks after vaccination, 48.9% (95% CI 17.9-68.2) at 4 to <8 weeks, and ranged from 54.6% to 59.5% at 4-week intervals from 8 to <22 weeks.

Interpretation

BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted vaccine provided protection against JN.1-related hospitalization, regardless of prior vaccination history, with no evidence of waning through five months. These data support yearly vaccination against COVID-19 to prevent severe illness during the respiratory virus season.

Funding

Pfizer.

Factors associated with COVID-19 in-hospital death and COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization in the Philippines during pre-omicron and omicron period: A case-control study (MOTIVATE-P study)

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are limited in low- and middle-income countries. A case-control study was conducted among COVID-19 and other pneumonia patients admitted to a hospital in the Philippines during the pre-Omicron and Omicron periods. To elucidate factors associated with in-hospital death, 1782 COVID-19 patients were assessed. To estimate absolute VE for various severe outcomes, 1059 patients were assessed (869 [82.1%] COVID-19 cases; 190 [17.9%] controls). Factors associated with in-hospital death included older age, tuberculosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.45 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} 1.69-3.57]), HIV (aOR 3.30 [95% CI 2.03-5.37]), and current smokers (aOR 2.65 [95% CI 1.72-4.10]). Pre-Omicron, the primary series provided high protection within a median of 2 months (hospitalization: 85.4% [95% CI 35.9-96.7%]; oxygen requirement: 91.0% [95% CI 49.4-98.4%]; invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV): 97.0% [95% CI 65.7-99.7%]; death: 96.5% [95% CI 67.1-99.6%]). During Omicron, the primary series provided moderate-high protection within a median of 6-9 months (hospitalization: 70.2% [95% CI 27.0-87.8%]; oxygen requirement: 71.4% [95% CI 29.3-88.4%]; IMV: 72.7% [95% CI -11.6-93.3%]; death: 58.9% [95% CI -82.8-90.8%]). Primary series VE against severe COVID-19 outcomes was consistently high for both pre-Omicron and Omicron in a setting where approximately half of the vaccinees received inactivated vaccines.

Estimated Vaccine Effectiveness for Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Related Lower Respiratory Tract Disease

Importance

Clinical trials have demonstrated high vaccine efficacy (VE) against lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) but enrolled a smaller proportion of persons aged 75 years or older and those with comorbidities than seen in highest-risk populations in clinical practice settings. Additionally, VE against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-related hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits is not yet fully described.

Objective

To estimate Respiratory Syncytial Virus Prefusion F (RSVpreF) effectiveness in older adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a retrospective case-control study with a test negative design. Cases were adults aged 60 years or older with hospitalizations or ED visits at Kaiser Permanente of Southern California for LRTD from November 24, 2023, to April 9, 2024, who had respiratory swabs collected and tested for RSV. Two control definitions were prespecified: (1) strict controls included RSV-negative LRTD events that were negative for human metapneumovirus, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza, and positive for a nonvaccine preventable cause (primary) and (2) broad controls included all RSV-negative LRTD events (sensitivity analysis). Enhanced specimen collection was conducted to salvage clinical respiratory swabs not tested for RSV during routine care. Data were analyzed from May to September 2024.

Exposure

RSVpreF vaccine receipt during the first RSV season after licensure and 21 or more days before LRTD event.

Main outcomes and measures

Estimated VE against first episode of RSV-related LRTD hospitalization or ED visit.

Results

A total of 7047 LRTD-related hospitalizations or ED encounters with RSV testing results were included. The mean (SD) age was 76.8 (9.6) years; 3819 (54.2%) were female; 839 (11.9%) were non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander, 2323 (33.0%) were Hispanic, 1197 (17.0%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 2602 (36.9%) were non-Hispanic White; 998 (14.2%) were immunocompromised; and 6573 (93.3%) had 1 or more Charlson comorbidity. Using strict controls, estimated adjusted VE was 91% (95% CI, 59%-98%). Using broad controls, estimated adjusted VE was 90% (95% CI, 59%-97%).

Conclusions and Relevance

In a high-risk, general population, RSVpreF vaccination conferred protection against RSV-related LRTD in the hospital and ED settings among US adults aged 60 years or older, the majority of whom were aged 75 years or older and had comorbidities. These data support use of this vaccine in older adults.

Evaluation of test-negative design estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness in the context of multiple, co-circulating, vaccine preventable respiratory viruses

Test-negative design (TND) studies are cornerstones of vaccine effectiveness (VE) monitoring for influenza. The introduction of SARS-CoV-2 and RSV vaccines complicate the analysis of this design, with control selection restriction based on other pathogen diagnosis proposed as a solution. We conducted a simulation study and secondary analysis of 2017-18 and 2018-19 TND estimates from a Southeast Michigan ambulatory population to evaluate RSV-status-based control restriction. Simulations suggest that with vaccine-preventable RSV, influenza VE could be moderately biased with RSV prevalence ≥25 % of controls. Real-world analysis showed 151 influenza-negative adults (10.4 %) had RSV detected from the enrollment nasal swab. There were minimal differences in results of adjusted models with or without RSV exclusion from control groups. Findings suggest that inclusion of RSV cases in the control group of TND studies for influenza VE, particularly where RSV is not vaccine preventable, does not currently pose a major concern for bias in VE estimates.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Symptomatic Influenza in Primary Care: A Test Negative Case Control Study Over Two Influenza Seasons 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 in Ireland

INTRODUCTION

Live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is recommended in Ireland for all children aged 2-17 years. Quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) is recommended for all others eligible for vaccination, including those ≥ 18 years with underlying medical conditions and all aged ≥ 65 years. We aimed to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against acute respiratory infection (ARI) presentations to primary care due to influenza over two influenza seasons in Ireland, to inform vaccination recommendations and communication campaigns.

METHODS

We undertook a test-negative case control study within the Irish sentinel general practice surveillance network as part of the Vaccine Effectiveness Burden and Impact Studies (VEBIS) network. We compared influenza vaccination status among influenza PCR positive cases with influenza PCR negative controls, both with ARI presentations, of all ages. We estimated IVE using logistic regression adjusting for age, onset time, medical conditions and sex.

RESULTS

In 2022/2023, there were 288 cases and 765 controls. In 2023/2024, there were 567 cases and 1832 controls. In 2022/2023, overall IVE was 42% (95% CI 9 to 64) and 50% (95% CI -30 to 83) in 2- to 17-year-olds. Overall IVE in 2023/2024 was 35% (95% CI 15 to 51) and 68% (95% CI 30 to 87) in 2- to 17-year-olds.

CONCLUSION

Influenza vaccination reduced the risk of influenza among ARI patients presenting to general practice, demonstrating the benefits of vaccination, particularly among children. Promotion of the seasonal influenza vaccine to recommended groups, should remain a public health priority. Targeted vaccination campaigns for children promoting LAIV should emphasise the effectiveness of LAIV in children.

Bias and negative values of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness estimates from a test-negative design without controlling for prior SARS-CoV-2 infection

Test-negative designs (TNDs) are used to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE). Protection from infection-induced immunity may confound the association between case and vaccination status, but collecting reliable infection history can be challenging. If vaccinated individuals have less infection-induced protection than unvaccinated individuals, failure to account for infection history could underestimate VE, though the bias is not well understood. We simulated individual-level SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination histories and a TND. VE against symptomatic infection and VE against severe disease estimates unadjusted for infection history underestimated VE compared to estimates adjusted for infection history, and unadjusted estimates were more likely to be below 0%, which could lead to an incorrect interpretation that COVID-19 vaccines are harmful. TNDs assessing VE immediately following vaccine rollout introduced the largest bias and potential for negative VE against symptomatic infection. Despite the potential for bias, VE estimates from TNDs without prior infection information are useful because underestimation is rarely more than 8 percentage points.

Bias in control selection associated with the use of rapid tests in influenza vaccine effectiveness studies

In test-negative design studies that use rapid tests to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) a common concern is case/control misclassification due to imperfect test sensitivity and specificity. However, an imperfect test can also fail to exclude from the control group people that do not represent the source population, including people infected with other influenza types or other vaccine-preventable respiratory viruses for which vaccination status is correlated. We investigated these biases by comparing the effectiveness of seasonal 2023/24 influenza vaccination against influenza A and B based on PCR versus rapid test results, excluding controls who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 or the other type of influenza. By PCR, VE against influenza A was 49% (95%CI 26-65%) after exclusion of PCR-confirmed influenza B and SARS-CoV-2 controls. Corresponding VE against influenza B was 65% (95%CI 35-81%). VE estimated by adjusting for COVID-19 vaccination status yielded similar estimates to the scenario that excluded SARS-CoV-2-positive controls. When case/control status and exclusions from test-negative controls were determined by rapid test, VE was reduced by 5-15 percentage points. Bias correction methods were able to reduce these discrepancies. When estimating VE from a test-negative study using rapid test results, methods to correct misclassification bias are recommended.

Effectiveness of Original Monovalent and Bivalent COVID-19 Vaccines Against COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization and Severe In-Hospital Outcomes Among Adults in the United States, September 2022-August 2023

BACKGROUND

Assessments of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness are needed to monitor the protection provided by updated vaccines against severe COVID-19. We evaluated the effectiveness of original monovalent and bivalent (ancestral strain and Omicron BA.4/5) COVID-19 vaccination against COVID-19-associated hospitalization and severe in-hospital outcomes.

METHODS

During September 8, 2022 to August 31, 2023, adults aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with COVID-19-like illness were enrolled at 26 hospitals in 20 US states. Using a test-negative case-control design, we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) with multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, admission date, and geographic region.

RESULTS

Among 7028 patients, 2924 (41.6%) were COVID-19 case patients, and 4104 (58.4%) were control patients. Compared to unvaccinated patients, absolute VE against COVID-19-associated hospitalization was 6% (-7%-17%) for original monovalent doses only (median time since last dose [IQR] = 421 days [304-571]), 52% (39%-61%) for a bivalent dose received 7-89 days earlier, and 13% (-10%-31%) for a bivalent dose received 90-179 days earlier. Absolute VE against COVID-19-associated invasive mechanical ventilation or death was 51% (34%-63%) for original monovalent doses only, 61% (35%-77%) for a bivalent dose received 7-89 days earlier, and 50% (11%-71%) for a bivalent dose received 90-179 days earlier.

CONCLUSION

Bivalent vaccination provided protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalization and severe in-hospital outcomes within 3 months of receipt, followed by a decline in protection to a level similar to that remaining from previous original monovalent vaccination by 3-6 months. These results underscore the benefit of remaining up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccines.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended outpatient illness, United States, 2023-24 season

Background

The 2023-24 U.S. influenza season was characterized by a predominance of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulation with co-circulation of A(H3N2) and B/Victoria viruses. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the United States against mild-to-moderate medically attended influenza illness in the 2023-24 season.

Methods

We enrolled outpatients aged ≥8 months with acute respiratory illness in 7 states. Respiratory specimens were tested for influenza type/subtype by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Influenza VE was estimated with a test-negative design comparing odds of testing positive for influenza among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants. We estimated VE by virus sub-type/lineage and A(H1N1)pdm09 genetic subclades.

Results

Among 6,589 enrolled patients, 1,770 (27%) tested positive for influenza including 796 A(H1N1)pdm09, 563 B/Victoria, and 323 A(H3N2). Vaccine effectiveness against any influenza illness was 41% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 32 to 49): 28% (95% CI: 13 to 40) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 68% (95% CI: 59 to 76) against B/Victoria, and 30% (95% CI: 9 to 47) against A(H3N2). Statistically significant protection against any influenza was found for all age groups except adults aged 50-64 years. Lack of protection in this age group was specific to influenza A-associated illness. We observed differences in VE by birth cohort and A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genetic subclade.

Conclusions

Vaccination reduced outpatient medically attended influenza overall by 41% and provided protection overall against circulating influenza A and B viruses. Serologic studies would help inform differences observed by age groups.

Interim Effectiveness Estimates of 2024 Southern Hemisphere Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Influenza-Associated Hospitalization - REVELAC-i Network, Five South American Countries, March-July 2024

To reduce influenza-associated morbidity and mortality, countries in South America recommend annual influenza vaccination for persons at high risk for severe influenza illness, including young children, persons with preexisting health conditions, and older adults. Interim estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Southern Hemisphere countries can provide early information about the protective effects of vaccination and help guide Northern Hemisphere countries in advance of their season. Using data from a multicountry network, investigators estimated interim VE against influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) hospitalization using a test-negative case-control design. During March 13-July 19, 2024, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay identified 11,751 influenza-associated SARI cases; on average, 21.3% of patients were vaccinated against influenza, and the adjusted VE against hospitalization was 34.5%. The adjusted VE against the predominating subtype A(H3N2) was 36.5% and against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 37.1%. These interim VE estimates suggest that although the proportion of hospitalized patients who were vaccinated was modest, vaccination with the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine significantly lowered the risk for hospitalization. Northern Hemisphere countries should, therefore, anticipate the need for robust influenza vaccination campaigns and early antiviral treatment to achieve optimal protection against influenza-associated complications.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalizations in children, Hong Kong, November 2023 to June 2024

We conducted a test negative study from November 2023 to June 2024, enrolling 4,367 children hospitalized with acute respiratory illness in Hong Kong. Among the children who tested negative for influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2, 56.8 % had received influenza vaccination. Between November 2023 and March 2024, influenza A(H3N2) predominated and the VE against influenza A(H3N2) was estimated as 55 % (95 % CI: 29.6 %, 71.8 %). VE point estimates were higher for younger children than older children. In February to June 2024 influenza A(H1N1) predominated and VE against influenza A(H1N1) was 54 % (95 % CI: 33 %, 69 %) during this period. Influenza B/Victoria circulated at low intensity throughout the 2023/24 season and VE against influenza B was 66 % (95 % CI: 42 %, 80 %). Since its introduction in 2018/19 the school-based influenza vaccination program has substantially increased vaccine uptake in children in Hong Kong and prevented influenza-associated hospitalizations.

Influenza Epidemiology and Vaccine Effectiveness Following Funded Influenza Vaccine in Queensland, Australia, 2022

BACKGROUND

In 2022, publicly funded influenza vaccine was made available to all residents of Queensland, Australia. This study compared influenza epidemiology in 2022 with previous years (2017-2021) and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) during 2022.

METHODS

The study involved a descriptive analysis of influenza notifications and a case-control study to estimate VE. Cases were notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza, and controls were individuals who were test negative for COVID-19. Cases and controls were matched on age, postcode and specimen collection date. VE against hospitalisation was investigated by matching hospitalised cases to controls. Conditional logistic regression models were adjusted for sex.

RESULTS

In 2022, Queensland experienced an early influenza season onset (April-May) and high case numbers (n = 45,311), compared to the previous 5 years (annual average: 29,364) and 2020-2021 (2020:6047; 2021:301) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Adjusted VE (VEadj) against laboratory-confirmed influenza was 39% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37-41), highest for children aged 30 months to < 5 years (61%, 95% CI: 49-70) and lowest for adults aged ≥ 65 years (24%, 95% CI: 17-30). VEadj against influenza-associated hospitalisation was 54% (95% CI: 48-59). Among children < 9 years of age, VEadj against laboratory-confirmed influenza (55%, 95% CI: 49-61) and hospitalisation (67%, 95% CI: 39-82) was higher in those who received a complete dose schedule.

CONCLUSION

In Queensland, the 2022 influenza season started earlier than the previous 5 years. VE against influenza notifications varied across age groups. VE estimates against influenza-associated hospitalisation were higher than those against laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Effectiveness of Updated 2023-2024 (Monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 Vaccination Against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB and BA.2.86/JN.1 Lineage Hospitalization and a Comparison of Clinical Severity-IVY Network, 26 Hospitals, October 18, 2023-March 9, 2024

BACKGROUND

Assessing variant-specific COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) and severity can inform public health risk assessments and decisions about vaccine composition. BA.2.86 and its descendants, including JN.1 (referred to collectively as "JN lineages"), emerged in late 2023 and exhibited substantial divergence from co-circulating XBB lineages.

METHODS

We analyzed patients hospitalized with COVID-19-like illness at 26 hospitals in 20 U.S. states admitted October 18, 2023-March 9, 2024. Using a test-negative, case-control design, we estimated effectiveness of an updated 2023-2024 (Monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 vaccine dose against sequence-confirmed XBB and JN lineage hospitalization using logistic regression. Odds of severe outcomes, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) or death, were compared for JN versus XBB lineage hospitalizations using logistic regression.

RESULTS

585 case-patients with XBB lineages, 397 case-patients with JN lineages, and 4,580 control-patients were included. VE in the first 7-89 days after receipt of an updated dose was 54.2% (95% CI = 36.1%-67.1%) against XBB lineage hospitalization and 32.7% (95% CI = 1.9%-53.8%) against JN lineage hospitalization. Odds of ICU admission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.80; 95% CI = 0.46-1.38) and IMV or death (aOR 0.69; 95% CI = 0.34-1.40) were not significantly different among JN compared to XBB lineage hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccination provided protection against both XBB and JN lineage hospitalization, but protection against the latter may be attenuated by immune escape. Clinical severity of JN lineage hospitalizations was not higher relative to XBB.

Influenza virus circulation and vaccine effectiveness during June 2021-May 2023 in Thailand

Thai Ministry of Public Health recommends influenza vaccination for certain risk groups. We evaluated 2023 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza using surveillance data from nine Thai hospitals and a test-negative design. During June 2022-May 2023, influenza vaccine provided moderate protection against seeking care for influenza illness (adjusted vaccine effectiveness 51%; 95% confidence interval 28-67). Understanding vaccine effectiveness can help guide future antigen selection and support clinicians to make a strong influenza vaccine recommendation to patients.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza A-Associated Emergency Department, Urgent Care, and Hospitalization Encounters Among US Adults, 2022-2023

BACKGROUND

The 2022-2023 United States influenza season had unusually early influenza activity with high hospitalization rates. Vaccine-matched A(H3N2) viruses predominated, with lower levels of A(H1N1)pdm09 activity also observed.

METHODS

Using the test-negative design, we evaluated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) during the 2022-2023 season against influenza A-associated emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits and hospitalizations from October 2022 to March 2023 among adults (aged ≥18 years) with acute respiratory illness (ARI). VE was estimated by comparing odds of seasonal influenza vaccination among case-patients (influenza A test positive by molecular assay) and controls (influenza test negative), applying inverse-propensity-to-be-vaccinated weights.

RESULTS

The analysis included 85 389 ED/UC ARI encounters (17.0% influenza A positive; 37.8% vaccinated overall) and 19 751 hospitalizations (9.5% influenza A positive; 52.8% vaccinated overall). VE against influenza A-associated ED/UC encounters was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40%-47%) overall and 45% and 41% among adults aged 18-64 and ≥65 years, respectively. VE against influenza A-associated hospitalizations was 35% (95% CI, 27%-43%) overall and 23% and 41% among adults aged 18-64 and ≥65 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

VE was moderate during the 2022-2023 influenza season, a season characterized with increased burden of influenza and co-circulation with other respiratory viruses. Vaccination is likely to substantially reduce morbidity, mortality, and strain on healthcare resources.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines administered in the 2023 autumnal campaigns in Europe: Results from the VEBIS primary care test-negative design study, September 2023-January 2024

In autumn 2023, European vaccination campaigns predominantly administered XBB.1.5 vaccine. In a European multicentre study, we estimated 2023 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed symptomatic infection at primary care level between September 2023 and January 2024. Using a test-negative case-control design, we estimated VE in the target group for COVID-19 vaccination overall and by time since vaccination. We included 1057 cases and 4397 controls. Vaccine effectiveness was 40 % (95 % CI: 26-53 %) overall, 48 % (95 % CI: 31-61 %) among those vaccinated < 6 weeks of onset and 29 % (95 % CI: 3-49 %) at 6-14 weeks. Our results suggest that COVID-19 vaccines administered to target groups during the autumn 2023 campaigns showed clinically significant effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed, medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in the 3 months following vaccination. A longer study period will allow for further variant-specific COVID-19 VE estimates, better understanding decline in VE and informing booster administration policies.

Effectiveness of autumn 2023 COVID-19 vaccination and residual protection of prior doses against hospitalisation in England, estimated using a test-negative case-control study

INTRODUCTION

The last COVID-19 vaccine offered to all adults in England became available from November 2021. The most recent booster programme commenced in September 2023. Bivalent BA.4-5 or monovalent XBB.1.5 boosters were given. During the study period, the JN.1 variant became dominant in England.

METHODS

Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation was estimated throughout using the test-negative case-control study design where positive PCR tests from hospitalised individuals are cases and comparable negative PCR tests are controls. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation with the test result as the outcome, vaccination status as the primary exposure variable of interest and confounder adjustment.

RESULTS

There was no evidence of residual protection for boosters given as part of previous campaigns. There were 28,916 eligible tests included to estimate the effectiveness of the autumn 2023 boosters in those aged 65 years and older. VE peaked at 50.6% (95% CI: 44.2-56.3%) after 2-4 weeks, followed by waning to 13.6% (95% CI: -11.7 to 33.2%). Estimates were generally higher for the XBB.1.5 booster than the BA.4-5 booster, but this difference was not statistically significant. Point estimates were highest against XBB sub-lineages. Effectiveness was lower against both JN.1 and EG.5.1 variants with confidence intervals non-overlapping with the effectiveness of the XBB sub-lineages at 2-4 weeks for EG.5.1 where VE was 44.5% (95% CI: 20.2-61.4%) and at 5-9 weeks for JN.1 where VE was 26.4% (95%CI: -3.4 to 47.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

The recent monovalent XBB.1.5 and bivalent BA.4-5 boosters provided comparable and good protection against hospitalisation, however there was evidence of lower VE against hospitalisation of these boosters against JN.1.

Exploring the effect of clinical case definitions on influenza vaccine effectiveness estimation at primary care level: Results from the end-of-season 2022-23 VEBIS multicentre study in Europe

BACKGROUND

Within influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies at primary care level with a laboratory-confirmed outcome, clinical case definitions for recruitment of patients can vary. We used the 2022-23 VEBIS primary care European multicentre study end-of-season data to evaluate whether the clinical case definition affected IVE estimates.

METHODS

We estimated VE using a multicentre test-negative case-control design. We measured VE against any influenza and influenza (sub)types, by age group (0-14, 15-64, ≥65 years) and by influenza vaccine target group, using logistic regression. We estimated IVE among patients meeting the European Union (EU) acute respiratory infection (ARI) case definition and among those meeting the EU influenza-like illness (ILI) case definition, including only sites providing information on specific symptoms and recruiting patients using an ARI case definition (as the EU ILI case definition is a subset of the EU ARI one).

RESULTS

We included 24 319 patients meeting the EU ARI case definition, of whom 21 804 patients (90 %) meet the EU ILI case definition, for the overall pooled VE analysis against any influenza. The overall and influenza (sub)type-specific VE varied by ≤2 % between EU ILI and EU ARI populations.

DISCUSSION

Among all analyses, we found similar VE estimates between the EU ILI and EU ARI populations, with few (10%) additional non-ILI ARI patients recruited. These results indicate that VE in the 2022-23 influenza season was not affected by use of a different clinical case definition for recruitment, although we recommend investigating whether this holds true for next seasons.

Effectiveness of Updated 2023-2024 (Monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 Vaccination Against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB and BA.2.86/JN.1 Lineage Hospitalization and a Comparison of Clinical Severity - IVY Network, 26 Hospitals, October 18, 2023-March 9, 2024

Background

Assessing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) and severity of SARS-CoV-2 variants can inform public health risk assessments and decisions about vaccine composition. BA.2.86 and its descendants, including JN.1 (referred to collectively as "JN lineages"), emerged in late 2023 and exhibited substantial genomic divergence from co-circulating XBB lineages.

Methods

We analyzed patients hospitalized with COVID-19-like illness at 26 hospitals in 20 U.S. states admitted October 18, 2023-March 9, 2024. Using a test-negative, case-control design, we estimated the effectiveness of an updated 2023-2024 (Monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 vaccine dose against sequence-confirmed XBB and JN lineage hospitalization using logistic regression. Odds of severe outcomes, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) or death, were compared for JN versus XBB lineage hospitalizations using logistic regression.

Results

585 case-patients with XBB lineages, 397 case-patients with JN lineages, and 4,580 control-patients were included. VE in the first 7-89 days after receipt of an updated dose was 54.2% (95% CI = 36.1%-67.1%) against XBB lineage hospitalization and 32.7% (95% CI = 1.9%-53.8%) against JN lineage hospitalization. Odds of ICU admission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.80; 95% CI = 0.46-1.38) and IMV or death (aOR 0.69; 95% CI = 0.34-1.40) were not significantly different among JN compared to XBB lineage hospitalizations.

Conclusions

Updated 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccination provided protection against both XBB and JN lineage hospitalization, but protection against the latter may be attenuated by immune escape. Clinical severity of JN lineage hospitalizations was not higher relative to XBB lineage hospitalizations.

Late-Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Medically Attended Outpatient Illness, United States, December 2022-April 2023

BACKGROUND

The 2022-23 US influenza season peaked early in fall 2022.

METHODS

Late-season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against outpatient, laboratory-confirmed influenza was calculated among participants of the US Influenza VE Network using a test-negative design.

RESULTS

Of 2561 participants enrolled from December 12, 2022 to April 30, 2023, 91 laboratory-confirmed influenza cases primarily had A(H1N1)pdm09 (6B.1A.5a.2a.1) or A(H3N2) (3C.2a1b.2a.2b). Overall, VE was 30% (95% confidence interval -9%, 54%); low late-season activity precluded estimation for most subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

2022-23 late-season outpatient influenza VE was not statistically significant. Genomic characterization may improve the identification of influenza viruses that circulate postinfluenza peak.

End of 2022/23 Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Primary Care in Great Britain

BACKGROUND

The 2022/23 influenza season in the United Kingdom saw the return of influenza to prepandemic levels following two seasons with low influenza activity. The early season was dominated by A(H3N2), with cocirculation of A(H1N1), reaching a peak late December 2022, while influenza B circulated at low levels during the latter part of the season. From September to March 2022/23, influenza vaccines were offered, free of charge, to all aged 2-13 (and 14-15 in Scotland and Wales), adults up to 49 years of age with clinical risk conditions and adults aged 50 and above across the mainland United Kingdom.

METHODS

End-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates against sentinel primary-care attendance for influenza-like illness, where influenza infection was laboratory confirmed, were calculated using the test negative design, adjusting for potential confounders.

METHODS

Results In the mainland United Kingdom, end-of-season VE against all laboratory-confirmed influenza for all those > 65 years of age, most of whom received adjuvanted quadrivalent vaccines, was 30% (95% CI: -6% to 54%). VE for those aged 18-64, who largely received cell-based vaccines, was 47% (95% CI: 37%-56%). Overall VE for 2-17 year olds, predominantly receiving live attenuated vaccines, was 66% (95% CI: 53%-76%).

CONCLUSION

The paper provides evidence of moderate influenza VE in 2022/23.

Interim 2023/2024 Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Primary and Secondary Care in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

We report 2023/2024 season interim influenza vaccine effectiveness for three studies, namely, primary care in Great Britain, hospital settings in Scotland and hospital settings in England.

METHODS

A test negative design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness.

RESULTS

Estimated vaccine effectiveness against all influenzas ranged from 63% (95% confidence interval 46 to 75%) to 65% (41 to 79%) among children aged 2-17, from 36% (20 to 49%) to 55% (43 to 65%) among adults 18-64 and from 40% (29 to 50%) to 55% (32 to 70%) among adults aged 65 and over.

CONCLUSIONS

During a period of co-circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in the United Kingdom, evidence for effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in both children and adults was found.

Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza A-Associated Hospitalization, Organ Failure, and Death: United States, 2022-2023

BACKGROUND

Influenza circulation during the 2022-2023 season in the United States largely returned to pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-pandemic patterns and levels. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses were detected most frequently this season, predominately clade 3C.2a1b.2a, a close antigenic match to the vaccine strain.

METHODS

To understand effectiveness of the 2022-2023 influenza vaccine against influenza-associated hospitalization, organ failure, and death, a multicenter sentinel surveillance network in the United States prospectively enrolled adults hospitalized with acute respiratory illness between 1 October 2022, and 28 February 2023. Using the test-negative design, vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates against influenza-associated hospitalization, organ failures, and death were measured by comparing the odds of current-season influenza vaccination in influenza-positive case-patients and influenza-negative, SARS-CoV-2-negative control-patients.

RESULTS

A total of 3707 patients, including 714 influenza cases (33% vaccinated) and 2993 influenza- and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-negative controls (49% vaccinated) were analyzed. VE against influenza-associated hospitalization was 37% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27%-46%) and varied by age (18-64 years: 47% [30%-60%]; ≥65 years: 28% [10%-43%]), and virus (A[H3N2]: 29% [6%-46%], A[H1N1]: 47% [23%-64%]). VE against more severe influenza-associated outcomes included: 41% (29%-50%) against influenza with hypoxemia treated with supplemental oxygen; 65% (56%-72%) against influenza with respiratory, cardiovascular, or renal failure treated with organ support; and 66% (40%-81%) against influenza with respiratory failure treated with invasive mechanical ventilation.

CONCLUSIONS

During an early 2022-2023 influenza season with a well-matched influenza vaccine, vaccination was associated with reduced risk of influenza-associated hospitalization and organ failure.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Pre-pandemic Among Adults Hospitalized With Congestive Heart Failure or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Data are limited on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the prevention of influenza-related hospitalizations in older adults and those with underlying high-risk comorbidities.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, test-negative, case-control study at 2 US hospitals from October 2018-March 2020 among adults aged ≥50 years hospitalized with acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) and adults ≥18 years admitted with congestive heart failure (CHF) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Adults were eligible if they resided in 1 of 8 counties in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested using BioFire FilmArray (bioMérieux, Inc.) respiratory panel, and standard-of-care molecular results were included when available. Influenza vaccination history was determined from the Georgia vaccine registry and medical records. We used multivariable logistic regression to control for potential confounders and to determine 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among 3090 eligible adults, 1562 (50.6%) were enrolled. Of the 1515 with influenza vaccination history available, 701 (46.2%) had received vaccination during that season. Influenza was identified in 37 (5.3%) vaccinated versus 78 (9.6%) unvaccinated participants. After adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, immunosuppression, month, and season, pooled VE for any influenza-related hospitalization in the eligible study population was 63.1% (95% CI, 43.8-75.8%). Adjusted VE against influenza-related hospitalization for ARI in adults ≥50 years was 55.9% (29.9-72.3%) and adjusted VE against influenza-related CHF/COPD exacerbation in adults ≥18 years was 80.3% (36.3-93.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing influenza-related hospitalizations in adults aged ≥50 years and those with CHF/COPD exacerbations during the 2018-2020 seasons.

Vaccine Effectiveness Against Pediatric Influenza-A-Associated Urgent Care, Emergency Department, and Hospital Encounters During the 2022-2023 Season: VISION Network

BACKGROUND

During the 2022-2023 influenza season, the United States experienced the highest influenza-associated pediatric hospitalization rate since 2010-2011. Influenza A/H3N2 infections were predominant.

METHODS

We analyzed acute respiratory illness (ARI)-associated emergency department or urgent care (ED/UC) encounters or hospitalizations at 3 health systems among children and adolescents aged 6 months-17 years who had influenza molecular testing during October 2022-March 2023. We estimated influenza A vaccine effectiveness (VE) using a test-negative approach. The odds of vaccination among influenza-A-positive cases and influenza-negative controls were compared after adjusting for confounders and applying inverse-propensity-to-be-vaccinated weights. We developed overall and age-stratified VE models.

RESULTS

Overall, 13 547 of 44 787 (30.2%) eligible ED/UC encounters and 263 of 1862 (14.1%) hospitalizations were influenza-A-positive cases. Among ED/UC patients, 15.2% of influenza-positive versus 27.1% of influenza-negative patients were vaccinated; VE was 48% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-52%) overall, 53% (95% CI, 47-58%) among children aged 6 months-4 years, and 38% (95% CI, 30-45%) among those aged 9-17 years. Among hospitalizations, 17.5% of influenza-positive versus 33.4% of influenza-negative patients were vaccinated; VE was 40% (95% CI, 6-61%) overall, 56% (95% CI, 23-75%) among children ages 6 months-4 years, and 46% (95% CI, 2-70%) among those 5-17 years.

CONCLUSIONS

During the 2022-2023 influenza season, vaccination reduced the risk of influenza-associated ED/UC encounters and hospitalizations by almost half (overall VE, 40-48%). Influenza vaccination is a critical tool to prevent moderate-to-severe influenza illness in children and adolescents.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations associated with influenza A(H3N2) in Hong Kong children aged 9 months to 17 years, June-November 2023

A test negative study was carried out from 13 June through to 15 November 2023 enrolling 3183 children hospitalized with acute respiratory illness in Hong Kong. Influenza A and B viruses were detected in 528 (16.6%) children, among which 419 (79.4%) were influenza A(H3N2). The overall vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization associated with any influenza virus infection was estimated as 22.4% (95% CI: -11.7%, 46.1%), and against influenza A(H3N2) specifically was 14.3% (95% CI: -29.2%, 43.2%). Despite the moderate to low VE estimated here, which could be a result of waning immunity and antigenic drift, influenza vaccination remains an important approach to reduce the impact of influenza in children.

Influenza vaccination during the 2021/22 season: A data-linkage test-negative case-control study of effectiveness against influenza requiring emergency care in England and serological analysis of primary care patients

We present England 2021/22 end-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against laboratory confirmed influenza related emergency care use in children aged 1-17 and in adults aged 50+, and serological findings in vaccinated vs unvaccinated adults by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Influenza vaccination has been routinely offered to all children aged 2-10 years and adults aged 65 years + in England. In 2021/22, the offer was extended to children to age 15 years, and adults aged 50-64 years. Influenza activity rose during the latter half of the 2021/22 season, while remaining comparatively low due to COVID-19 pandemic control measures. Influenza A(H3N2) strains predominated. A test negative design was used to estimate aVE by vaccine type. Cases and controls were identified within a sentinel laboratory surveillance system. Vaccine histories were obtained from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS), an influenza and COVID-19 vaccine registry. These were linked to emergency department presentations (excluding accidents) with respiratory swabbing ≤ 14 days before or ≤ 7 days after presentation. Amongst adults, 423 positive and 32,917 negative samples were eligible for inclusion, and 145 positive and 6,438 negative samples among children. Those admitted to hospital were further identified. In serology against the circulating A(H3N2) A/Bangladesh/4005/2020-like strain, 61 % of current season adult vaccinees had titres ≥ 1:40 compared to 17 % of those unvaccinated in 2020/21 or 2021/22 (p < 0.001). We found good protection from influenza vaccination against influenza requiring emergency care in children (72.7 % [95 % CI 52.7, 84.3 %]) and modest effectiveness in adults (26.1 % [95 % CI 4.5, 42.8 %]). Adult VE was higher for A(H1N1) (81 % [95 % CI 50, 93 %]) than A(H3N2) (33 % [95 % CI 6, 53 %]). Consistent protection was observable across preschool, primary and secondary school aged children. Imperfect test specificity combined with very low prevalence may have biased estimates towards null. With limited influenza circulation, the study could not determine differences by vaccine types.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 BA.1/BA.2 lineages among adults and adolescents in a multicentre primary care study, Europe, December 2021 to June 2022

BackgroundScarce European data in early 2021 suggested lower vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages than previous variants.AimWe aimed to estimate primary series (PS) and first booster VE against symptomatic BA.1/BA.2 infection and investigate potential biases.MethodsThis European test-negative multicentre study tested primary care patients with acute respiratory symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 in the BA.1/BA.2-dominant period. We estimated PS and booster VE among adults and adolescents (PS only) for all products combined and for Comirnaty alone, by time since vaccination, age and chronic condition. We investigated potential bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination and explored effect modification and confounding by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsAmong adults, PS VE was 37% (95% CI: 24-47%) overall and 60% (95% CI: 44-72%), 43% (95% CI: 26-55%) and 29% (95% CI: 13-43%) < 90, 90-179 and ≥ 180 days post vaccination, respectively. Booster VE was 42% (95% CI: 32-51%) overall and 56% (95% CI: 47-64%), 22% (95% CI: 2-38%) and 3% (95% CI: -78% to 48%), respectively. Primary series VE was similar among adolescents. Restricting analyses to Comirnaty had little impact. Vaccine effectiveness was higher among older adults. There was no signal of bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination. Confounding by previous infection was low, but sample size precluded definite assessment of effect modification.ConclusionPrimary series and booster VE against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 ranged from 37% to 42%, with similar waning post vaccination. Comprehensive data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection would help disentangle vaccine- and infection-induced immunity.

Effectiveness of Immunization Products Against Medically Attended Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: Generic Protocol for a Test-Negative Case-Control Study

Monitoring the real-life effectiveness of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) products is of major public health importance. This generic protocol for a test-negative design study aims to address currently envisioned approaches for RSV prevention (monoclonal antibodies and vaccines) to study effectiveness of these products among target groups: children, older adults, and pregnant women. The generic protocol approach was chosen to allow for flexibility in adapting the protocol to a specific setting. This protocol includes severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and acute respiratory infection (ARI), both due to RSV, as end points. These end points can be applied to studies in hospitals, primarily targeting patients with more severe disease, but also to studies in general practitioner clinics targeting ARI.

Interim Estimates of 2023-24 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness - United States

In the United States, annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months. Using data from four vaccine effectiveness (VE) networks during the 2023-24 influenza season, interim influenza VE was estimated among patients aged ≥6 months with acute respiratory illness-associated medical encounters using a test-negative case-control study design. Among children and adolescents aged 6 months-17 years, VE against influenza-associated outpatient visits ranged from 59% to 67% and against influenza-associated hospitalization ranged from 52% to 61%. Among adults aged ≥18 years, VE against influenza-associated outpatient visits ranged from 33% to 49% and against hospitalization from 41% to 44%. VE against influenza A ranged from 46% to 59% for children and adolescents and from 27% to 46% for adults across settings. VE against influenza B ranged from 64% to 89% for pediatric patients in outpatient settings and from 60% to 78% for all adults across settings. These findings demonstrate that the 2023-24 seasonal influenza vaccine is effective at reducing the risk for medically attended influenza virus infection. CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months who have not yet been vaccinated this season get vaccinated while influenza circulates locally.

Interim Effectiveness of Updated 2023-2024 (Monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 Vaccines Against COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalization Among Immunocompetent Adults Aged ≥18 Years - VISION and IVY Networks, September 2023-January 2024

In September 2023, CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended updated 2023-2024 (monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 vaccination for all persons aged ≥6 months to prevent COVID-19, including severe disease. However, few estimates of updated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended illness are available. This analysis evaluated VE of an updated COVID-19 vaccine dose against COVID-19-associated emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) encounters and hospitalization among immunocompetent adults aged ≥18 years during September 2023-January 2024 using a test-negative, case-control design with data from two CDC VE networks. VE against COVID-19-associated ED/UC encounters was 51% (95% CI = 47%-54%) during the first 7-59 days after an updated dose and 39% (95% CI = 33%-45%) during the 60-119 days after an updated dose. VE estimates against COVID-19-associated hospitalization from two CDC VE networks were 52% (95% CI = 47%-57%) and 43% (95% CI = 27%-56%), with a median interval from updated dose of 42 and 47 days, respectively. Updated COVID-19 vaccine provided increased protection against COVID-19-associated ED/UC encounters and hospitalization among immunocompetent adults. These results support CDC recommendations for updated 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccination. All persons aged ≥6 months should receive updated 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccine.

2023/24 mid-season influenza and Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccine effectiveness estimates from the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN)

The Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network reports mid-season 2023/24 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 63% (95% CI: 51-72) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, lower for clade 5a.2a.1 (56%; 95% CI: 33-71) than clade 5a.2a (67%; 95% CI: 48-80), and lowest against influenza A(H3N2) (40%; 95% CI: 5-61). The Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccine protected comparably well, with VE of 47% (95% CI: 21-65) against medically attended COVID-19, higher among people reporting a prior confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection at 67% (95% CI: 28-85).

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen therapy, invasive mechanical ventilation, and death in Japan: A multicenter case-control study (MOTIVATE study)

INTRODUCTION

Since the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant became dominant, assessing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe disease using hospitalization as an outcome became more challenging due to incidental infections via admission screening and variable admission criteria, resulting in a wide range of estimates. To address this, the World Health Organization (WHO) guidance recommends the use of outcomes that are more specific to severe pneumonia such as oxygen use and mechanical ventilation.

METHODS

A case-control study was conducted in 24 hospitals in Japan for the Delta-dominant period (August-November 2021; "Delta") and early Omicron (BA.1/BA.2)-dominant period (January-June 2022; "Omicron"). Detailed chart review/interviews were conducted in January-May 2023. VE was measured using various outcomes including disease requiring oxygen therapy, disease requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), death, outcome restricting to "true" severe COVID-19 (where oxygen requirement is due to COVID-19 rather than another condition(s)), and progression from oxygen use to IMV or death among COVID-19 patients.

RESULTS

The analysis included 2125 individuals with respiratory failure (1608 cases [75.7%]; 99.2% of vaccinees received mRNA vaccines). During Delta, 2 doses provided high protection for up to 6 months (oxygen requirement: 95.2% [95% CI:88.7-98.0%] [restricted to "true" severe COVID-19: 95.5% {89.3-98.1%}]; IMV: 99.6% [97.3-99.9%]; fatal: 98.6% [92.3-99.7%]). During Omicron, 3 doses provided high protection for up to 6 months (oxygen requirement: 85.5% [68.8-93.3%] ["true" severe COVID-19: 88.1% {73.6-94.7%}]; IMV: 97.9% [85.9-99.7%]; fatal: 99.6% [95.2-99.97]). There was a trend towards higher VE for more severe and specific outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Multiple outcomes pointed towards high protection of 2 doses during Delta and 3 doses during Omicron. These results demonstrate the importance of using severe and specific outcomes to accurately measure VE against severe COVID-19, as recommended in WHO guidance in settings of intense transmission as seen during Omicron.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe: Results from the 2022-2023 VEBIS (Vaccine Effectiveness, Burden and Impact Studies) primary care multicentre study

Background

Influenza A(H3N2) viruses dominated early in the 2022-2023 influenza season in Europe, followed by higher circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses. The VEBIS primary care network estimated the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) using a multicentre test-negative study.

Materials and Methods

Primary care practitioners collected information and specimens from patients consulting with acute respiratory infection. We measured VE against any influenza, influenza (sub)type and clade, by age group, by influenza vaccine target group and by time since vaccination, using logistic regression.

Results

We included 38 058 patients, of which 3786 were influenza A(H3N2), 1548 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 3275 influenza B cases. Against influenza A(H3N2), VE was 36% (95% CI: 25-45) among all ages and ranged between 30% and 52% by age group and target group. VE against influenza A(H3N2) clade 2b was 38% (95% CI: 25-49). Overall, VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 46% (95% CI: 35-56) and ranged between 29% and 59% by age group and target group. VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 clade 5a.2a was 56% (95% CI: 46-65) and 79% (95% CI: 64-88) against clade 5a.2a.1. VE against influenza B was 76% (95% CI: 70-81); overall, 84%, 72% and 71% were among 0-14-year-olds, 15-64-year-olds and those in the influenza vaccination target group, respectively. VE against influenza B with a position 197 mutation of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was 79% (95% CI: 73-85) and 90% (95% CI: 85-94) without this mutation.

Conclusion

The 2022-2023 end-of-season results from the VEBIS network at primary care level showed high VE among children and against influenza B, with lower VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2).

Waning intra-season vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) underlines the need for more durable protection

BACKGROUND

The question of whether influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the winter season is still open and some contradictory findings have been reported. This study investigated the possible decline in protection provided by the available influenza vaccines.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

An individual-level pooled analysis of six test-negative case-control studies conducted in Italy between the 2018/2019 and 2022/2023 seasons was performed. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate weekly change in the odds of testing positive for influenza 14 days after vaccination.

RESULTS

Of 6490 patients included, 1633 tested positive for influenza. Each week that had elapsed since vaccination was associated with an increase in the odds of testing positive for any influenza (4.9%; 95% CI: 2.0-8.0%) and for A(H3N2) (6.5%; 95% CI: 2.9-10.3%). This decline in VE was, however, significant only in children and older adults. A similar increase in the odds of testing positive was seen when the dataset was restricted to vaccinees only. Conversely, VE waning was less evident for A(H1N1)pdm09 or B strains.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant waning of VE, especially against influenza A(H3N2), may be one of the factors associated with suboptimal end-of-season VE. Next-generation vaccines should provide more durable protection against A(H3N2).

Impact of accounting for correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination in a COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness evaluation using a test-negative design

Test-negative-design COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies use symptomatic SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals as cases and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2-negative individuals as controls to evaluate COVID-19 VE. To evaluate the potential bias introduced by the correlation of COVID-19 and influenza vaccination behaviors, we assessed changes in estimates of VE of bivalent vaccines against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) encounters when considering influenza vaccination status or including or excluding influenza-positive controls using data from the multi-state VISION vaccine effectiveness network. Analyses included encounters during October 2022 - February 2023, a period of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza cocirculation. When considering influenza vaccination status or including or excluding influenza-positive controls, COVID-19 VE estimates were robust, with most VE estimates against COVID-19-associated hospitalization and ED/UC encounters changing less than 5 percentage points. Higher proportions of influenza-positive patients among controls, influenza vaccination coverage, or VE could impact these findings; the potential bias should continue to be assessed.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza-Associated Hospitalization in Hong Kong Children Aged 9 Months to 17 Years, March-June 2023

In March-June 2023, we conducted a test-negative study in 1671 children who were hospitalized with acute respiratory illness in Hong Kong. Two hundred and eighty-six children (17.2%) were tested positive for influenza virus including 188 with A(H1N1). We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization as 69.6% (95% confidence interval: 49.3%, 81.7%).

Immune escape and waning immunity of COVID-19 monovalent mRNA vaccines against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 and BA.5 in Japan

BACKGROUND

Repeated emergence of variants with immune escape capacity and waning immunity from vaccination are major concerns for COVID-19. We examined whether the surge in Omicron subvariant BA.5 cases was due to immune escape or waning immunity through vaccine effectiveness (VE) evaluation.

METHODS

A test-negative case-control study was conducted in 16 clinics/hospitals during the BA.1/BA.2-dominant and BA.5-dominant periods. VE against symptomatic infection was estimated after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, occupation, testing frequency, prior infection, close contact history, clinic/hospital, week, and preventive measures. Absolute VE (aVE) was calculated for 2/3/4 doses, compared to the unvaccinated. Relative VE (rVE) was calculated, comparing 3 vs 2 and 4 vs 3 doses.

RESULTS

13,025 individuals were tested during the BA.1/BA.2-dominant and BA.5-dominant periods with similar baseline characteristics. For BA.1/BA.2, aVE was 52 % (95 %CI:34-66) 14 days-3 months post-dose 2, 42 % (29-52) > 6 months post-dose 2, 71 % (64-77) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, and 68 % (52-79) 3-6 months post-dose 3. rVE was 49 % (38-57) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3 and 45 % (18-63) 3-6 months post-dose 3. For BA.5, aVE was 56 % (27-73) 3-6 months post-dose 2, 32 % (12-47) > 6 months post-dose 2, 70 % (61-78) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, 59 % (48-68) 3-6 months post-dose 3, 50 % (29-64) > 6 months post-dose 3, and 74 % (61-83) ≥ 14 days post-dose 4. rVE was 56 % (45-65) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, 39 % (27-48) 3-6 months post-dose 3, 25 % (-2-45) > 6 months post-dose 3, and 30 % (-6-54) ≥ 14 days post-dose 4.

CONCLUSIONS

Booster doses initially provided high protection against BA.5 at a level similar to that against BA.1/BA.2. However, the protection seemed shorter-lasting against BA.5, which likely contributed to the surge. Furthermore, rVE post-dose 4 was low even among recent vaccinees. These results support the introduction of variant-containing vaccines and emphasize the need for vaccines with longer duration of protection.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against hospitalisation in Latin America during three pandemic waves, 2021-2022: a test-negative case-control design

Background

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) is essential to monitor the performance of vaccines and generate strategic information to guide decision making. We pooled data from six Latin American countries to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalisation during three different pandemic waves from February 2021 to September 2022.

Methods

We used a test-negative case-control design in hospitalised adults in Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Uruguay. We estimated adjusted VE by age group (18-64 and ≥65 years), vaccine type and product for primary series vaccination and booster vaccination and by time since last dose during the Omicron variant dominant period. We used mixed effects logistic regression models adjusting for sex, age, week of onset of symptom onset and pre-existing conditions with country fit as a random effect term.

Findings

We included 15,241 severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) patients in the analysis. Among adults 18-64 years, VE estimates for primary series vaccination during pre-Delta and Delta periods ranged by product from 66.5% to 95.1% and from 33.5% to 88.2% for older adults. During the Omicron period, VE estimates for primary series were lower and decreased by time since last vaccination, but VE increased to between 26.4% and 57.4% when a booster was administered.

Interpretation

mRNA and viral vector vaccines presented higher VE for both primary series and booster. While VE decreased over time, protection against severe COVID-19-associated hospitalisation increased when booster doses were administered. Vaccination with additional doses should be recommended, particularly for persons at increased risk of developing severe COVID-19.

Funding

This work was supported by a grant from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through cooperative agreements with the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations in Paraguay, May 2021-April 2022: A test-negative design

BACKGROUND

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates vary by population characteristics and circulating variants. North America and Europe have generated many COVID-19 VE estimates but relied heavily on mRNA vaccines. Fewer estimates are available for non-mRNA vaccines and from Latin America. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of several COVID-19 vaccines in preventing SARS-CoV-2-associated severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Paraguay from May 2021 to April 2022.

METHODS

Using sentinel surveillance data from four hospitals in Paraguay, we conducted a test-negative case-control study to estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARI by vaccine type/brand and period of SARS-CoV-2 variant predominance (Gamma, Delta, Omicron). We used multivariable logistic regression adjusting for month of symptom onset, age group, and presence of ≥1 comorbidity to estimate the odds of COVID-19 vaccination in SARS-CoV-2 test-positive SARI case-patients compared to SARS-CoV-2 test-negative SARI control-patients.

RESULTS

Of 4,229 SARI patients, 2,381 (56%) were SARS-CoV-2-positive case-patients and 1,848 (44%) were SARS-CoV-2-negative control-patients. A greater proportion of case-patients (73%; 95% CI: 71-75) than of control-patients (40%; 95% CI: 38-42) were unvaccinated. During the Gamma variant-predominant period, VE estimates for partial vaccination with mRNA vaccines and Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaxzevria were 90.4% (95% CI: 66.4-97.6) and 52.2% (95% CI: 25.0-69.0), respectively. During the Delta variant-predominant period, VE estimates for complete vaccination with mRNA vaccines, Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaxzevria, or Gamaleya Sputnik V were 90.4% (95% CI: 74.3-97.3), 83.2% (95% CI: 67.8-91.9), and 82.9% (95% CI: 53.0-95.2), respectively. The effectiveness of all vaccines declined substantially during the Omicron variant-predominant period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study contributes to our understanding of COVID-19 VE in Latin America and to global understanding of vaccines that have not been widely used in North America and Europe. VE estimates from Paraguay can parameterize models to estimate the impact of the national COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Paraguay and similar settings.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Cases and Hospitalizations in Navarre, Spain, 2022-2023

We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in preventing outpatient and hospitalized cases in the 2022-2023 season. A test-negative design included a representative sample of outpatients and all hospitalized patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) from October 2022 to May 2023 in Navarre, Spain. ILI patients were tested by PCR for influenza virus. Influenza vaccination status was compared between confirmed influenza cases and test-negative controls. Among 3321 ILI patients tested, IVE to prevent influenza cases was 34% (95% confidence interval (CI): 16 to 48) overall, 85% (95%CI: 63 to 94) against influenza B, and 28% (95%CI: 3 to 46) against A(H3N2). Among 558 outpatients, 222 (40%) were confirmed for influenza: 55% A(H3N2), 11% A(H1N1), and 31% B. Overall, IVE to prevent outpatient cases was 48% (95%CI: 8 to 70), 88% (95%CI: 3 to 98) against influenza B, and 50% (95%CI: -4 to 76) against A(H3N2). Of 2763 hospitalized patients, 349 (13%) were positive for influenza: 64% A(H3N2), 17% A(H1N1), and 8% B. IVE to prevent hospitalization was 24% (95%CI: -1 to 42) overall, 82% (95%CI: 49 to 93) against influenza B, and 16% (95%CI: -17 to 40) against A(H3N2). No IVE was observed in preventing influenza A(H1N1). IVE was high to prevent influenza B, moderate against A(H3N2) and null against A(H1N1). A lower proportion of influenza B cases may explain the smaller IVE in hospitalized patients than in outpatients. The null IVE against A(H1N1) was consistent with the observed antigenic drift and supports the new composition of the 2023-2024 influenza vaccine.