Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota

Wheat archive links long-term fungal pathogen population dynamics to air pollution

We used the PCR to study the presence of two plant pathogens in archived wheat samples from a long-term experiment started in 1843. The data were used to construct a unique 160-yr time-series of the abundance of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola, two important pathogens of wheat. During the period since 1970, the relative abundance of DNA of these two pathogens in the samples has reflected the relative importance of the two wheat diseases they cause in U.K. disease surveys. Unexpectedly, changes in the ratio of the pathogens over the 160-yr period were very strongly correlated with changes in atmospheric pollution, as measured by SO(2) emissions. This finding suggests that long-term, economically important, changes in pathogen populations can be influenced by anthropogenically induced environmental changes.

Seasonality and wildlife disease: how seasonal birth, aggregation and variation in immunity affect the dynamics of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in house finches

We examine the role of host seasonal breeding, host seasonal social aggregation and partial immunity in affecting wildlife disease dynamics, focusing on the dynamics of house finch conjunctivitis (Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) in Carpodacus mexicanus). This case study of an unmanaged emerging infectious disease provides useful insight into the important role of seasonal factors in driving ongoing disease dynamics. Seasonal breeding can force recurrent epidemics through the input of fresh susceptibles, which will clearly affect a wide variety of wildlife disease dynamics. Seasonal patterns of social aggregation and foraging behaviour could change transmission dynamics. We use latitudinal variation in the timing of breeding, and social systems to model seasonal dynamics of house finch conjunctivitis across eastern North America. We quantify the patterns of seasonal breeding, and social aggregation across a latitudinal gradient in the eastern range of the house finch, supplemented with known field and laboratory information on immunity to MG in finches. We then examine the interactions of these factors in a theoretical model of disease dynamics. We find that both forms of seasonality could explain the dynamics of the house finch-MG system, and that these factors could have important effects on the dynamics of wildlife diseases generally. In particular, while either alone is sufficient to create recurrent cycles of prevalence in a population with an endemic disease, both are required to produce the specific semi-annual pattern of disease prevalence seen in the house finch conjunctivitis system.

Impacts of climate change on aeroallergens: past and future

Human activities are resulting in increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, and changes in global climate. These, in turn, are likely to have had, and will continue to have, impacts on human health. While such impacts have received increasing attention in recent years, the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and related allergic diseases have been somewhat neglected. Despite this, a number of studies have revealed potential impacts of climate change on aeroallergens that may have enormous clinical and public health significance. The purpose of this review is to synthesize this work and to outline a number of research challenges in this area. There is now considerable evidence to suggest that climate change will have, and has already had, impacts on aeroallergens. These include impacts on pollen amount, pollen allergenicity, pollen season, plant and pollen distribution, and other plant attributes. There is also some evidence of impacts on other aeroallergens, such as mould spores. There are many research challenges along the road to a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and allergic diseases such as asthma and hayfever. It is important that public health authorities and allergy practitioners be aware of these changes in the environment, and that research scientists embrace the challenges that face further work in this area.

Host population persistence in the face of introduced vector-borne diseases: Hawaii amakihi and avian malaria

The past quarter century has seen an unprecedented increase in the number of new and emerging infectious diseases throughout the world, with serious implications for human and wildlife populations. We examined host persistence in the face of introduced vector-borne diseases in Hawaii, where introduced avian malaria and introduced vectors have had a negative impact on most populations of Hawaiian forest birds for nearly a century. We studied birds, parasites, and vectors in nine study areas from 0 to 1,800 m on Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawaii from January to October, 2002. Contrary to predictions of prior work, we found that Hawaii amakihi (Hemignathus virens), a native species susceptible to malaria, comprised from 24.5% to 51.9% of the avian community at three low-elevation forests (55-270 m). Amakihi were more abundant at low elevations than at disease-free high elevations, and were resident and breeding there. Infection rates were 24-40% by microscopy and 55-83% by serology, with most infected individuals experiencing low-intensity, chronic infections. Mosquito trapping and diagnostics provided strong evidence for year-round local transmission. Moreover, we present evidence that Hawaii amakihi have increased in low elevation habitats on southeastern Hawaii Island over the past decade. The recent emergent phenomenon of recovering amakihi populations at low elevations, despite extremely high prevalence of avian malaria, suggests that ecological or evolutionary processes acting on hosts or parasites have allowed this species to recolonize low-elevation habitats. A better understanding of the mechanisms allowing coexistence of hosts and parasites may ultimately lead to tools for mitigating disease impacts on wildlife and human populations.

Seasonal patterns of infectious diseases

Why is that many infectious diseases, like cholera, malaria, and meningococcal meningitis, show seasonal patterns? And how can we accurately determine these patterns?

Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Biocomplexity as an Interdisciplinary Paradigm

Understanding factors responsible for reemergence of diseases believed to have been controlled and outbreaks of previously unknown infectious diseases is one of the most difficult scientific problems facing society today. Significant knowledge gaps exist for even the most studied emerging infectious diseases. Coupled with failures in the response to the resurgence of infectious diseases, this lack of information is embedded in a simplistic view of pathogens and disconnected from a social and ecological context, and assumes a linear response of pathogens to environmental change. In fact, the natural reservoirs and transmission rates of most emerging infectious diseases primarily are affected by environmental factors, such as seasonality or meteorological events, typically producing nonlinear responses that are inherently unpredictable. A more realistic view of emerging infectious diseases requires a holistic perspective that incorporates social as well as physical, chemical, and biological dimensions of our planet’s systems. The notion of biocomplexity captures this depth and richness, and most importantly, the interactions of human and natural systems. This article provides a brief review and a synthesis of interdisciplinary approaches and insights employing the biocomplexity paradigm and offers a social–ecological approach for addressing and garnering an improved understanding of emerging infectious diseases. Drawing on findings from studies of cholera and other examples of emerging waterborne, zoonotic, and vectorborne diseases, a “blueprint” for the proposed interdisciplinary research framework is offered which integrates biological processes from the molecular level to that of communities and regional systems, incorporating public health infrastructure and climate aspects.

The ecotoxicological effects of Photosystem II herbicides on corals

The recent discovery of contamination of the tropical marine environment by Photosystem II (PSII) herbicides used in agriculture and antifouling paints has led to concerns regarding the effects on corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellate algae. In reviewing the ecotoxicological studies conducted so far, PSII herbicides appear able to readily penetrate the coral tissues and rapidly (within minutes) reduce the photochemical efficiency of the intracellular algal symbionts. The dinoflagellates appear at least as sensitive to PSII herbicides as other phototrophs tested so far, with photosynthesis being affected at exceptionally low concentrations (i.e. in the ngl(-1) range). At these levels and over short exposure periods, the effects can be fully reversible (i.e. when corals are returned to clean seawater) and vary according to type of herbicide; however, when exposed to higher concentrations in the light or over longer exposure periods, it results in a long-term sustained reduction of the photochemical efficiency of the algae (symptomatic of chronic photoinhibition). This can result in the dissociation of the symbiosis (bleaching) which is a common but nevertheless significant sub lethal stress response requiring many months to recover from. It is argued that the reliance of corals on an endosymbiotic photoautotrophic energy source, together with predilection for the symbiosis to dissociate when photosynthesis of the algae is affected, renders coral particularly susceptible to changes in environmental conditions-and especially phytotoxins such as PSII herbicides.

Environmental and social influences on emerging infectious diseases: past, present and future

During the processes of human population dispersal around the world over the past 50 000-100 000 years, along with associated cultural evolution and inter-population contact and conflict, there have been several major transitions in the relationships of Homo sapiens with the natural world, animate and inanimate. Each of these transitions has resulted in the emergence of new or unfamiliar infectious diseases. The three great historical transitions since the initial advent of agriculture and livestock herding, from ca. 10 000 years ago, occurred when: (i) early agrarian-based settlements enabled sylvatic enzootic microbes to make contact with Homo sapiens; (ii) early Eurasian civilizations (such as the Greek and Roman empires, China and south Asia) came into military and commercial contact, ca. 3000-2000 years ago, swapping their dominant infections; and (iii) European expansionism, over the past five centuries, caused the transoceanic spread of often lethal infectious diseases. This latter transition is best known in relation to the conquest of the Americas by Spanish conquistadores, when the inadvertent spread of measles, smallpox and influenza devastated the Amerindian populations.Today, we are living through the fourth of these great transitional periods. The contemporary spread and increased lability of various infectious diseases, new and old, reflect the combined and increasingly widespread impacts of demographic, environmental, behavioural, technological and other rapid changes in human ecology. Modern clinical medicine has, via blood transfusion, organ transplantation, and the use of hypodermic syringes, created new opportunities for microbes. These have contributed to the rising iatrogenic problems of hepatitis C, HIV/AIDS and several other viral infections. Meanwhile, the injudicious use of antibiotics has been a rare instance of human action actually increasing 'biodiversity'. Another aspect of this fourth transition is that modern hyper-hygienic living restricts microbial exposure in early life. This, in the 1950s, may have contributed to an epidemic of more serious, disabling, poliomyelitis, affecting older children than those affected in earlier, more endemic decades. As with previous human-microbe transitions, a new equilibrial state may lie ahead. However, it certainly will not entail a world free of infectious diseases. Any mature, sustainable, human ecology must come to terms with both the need for, and the needs of, the microbial species that help to make up the interdependent system of life on Earth. Humans and microbes are not "at war"; rather, both parties are engaged in amoral, self-interested, coevolutionary struggle. We need to understand better, and therefore anticipate, the dynamics of that process.

TheVibrio shiloi/Oculina patagonicaModel System of Coral Bleaching

The scleractinian coral Oculina patagonica undergoes bleaching (loss of its endosymbiotic zooxanthellae) every summer in the eastern Mediterranean Sea when seawater temperatures rise. The causative agent of the disease is Vibrio shiloi. The pathogen adheres to a beta-galactoside-containing receptor in the coral mucus, penetrates into epithelial cells, differentiates into a viable-but-not-culturable form, multiplies, and produces a proline-rich peptide toxin that inhibits photosynthesis of the zooxanthellae in the presence of ammonia. Several of the virulence factors, such as adhesin, toxin, and superoxide dismutase, are produced only at the elevated summer seawater temperatures. The fireworm Hermodice carunculata is a winter reservoir and spring/summer vector for V. shiloi. The generality of the bacterial hypothesis of coral bleaching is discussed.

Global climate change and the emergence/re-emergence of infectious diseases

Variation in the incidence of vector-borne diseases is associated with extreme weather events and annual changes in weather conditions. Moreover, it is assumed that global warming might lead to an increase of infectious disease outbreaks. While a number of reports link disease outbreaks to single weather events, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other large-scale climate fluctuations, no report unequivocally associates vector-borne diseases with increased temperature and the environmental changes expected to accompany it. The complexity of not yet fully understood pathogen transmission dynamics with numerous variables might be an explanation of the problems in assessing the risk factors.

Diversity and dynamics of a north atlantic coastal Vibrio community

Vibrios are ubiquitous marine bacteria that have long served as models for heterotrophic processes and have received renewed attention because of the discovery of increasing numbers of facultatively pathogenic strains. Because the occurrence of specific vibrios has frequently been linked to the temperature, salinity, and nutrient status of water, we hypothesized that seasonal changes in coastal water bodies lead to distinct vibrio communities and sought to characterize their level of differentiation. A novel technique was used to quantify shifts in 16S rRNA gene abundance in samples from Barnegat Bay, N.J., collected over a 15-month period. Quantitative PCR (QPCR) with primers specific for the genus Vibrio was combined with separation and quantification of amplicons by constant denaturant capillary electrophoresis (CDCE). Vibrio populations identified by QPCR-CDCE varied between summer and winter samples, suggesting distinct warm-water and year-round populations. Identification of the CDCE populations by cloning and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes from two summer and two winter samples confirmed this distinction. It further showed that CDCE populations corresponded in most cases to approximately 98% rRNA similarity groups and suggested that the abundance of these follows temperature trends. Phylogenetic comparison yielded closely related cultured and often pathogenic representatives for most sequences, and the temperature ranges of these isolates confirmed the trends seen in the environmental samples. Overall, this suggests that temperature is a good predictor of the occurrence of closely related vibrios but that considerable microdiversity of unknown significance coexists within this trend.

Confronting the coral reef crisis

The worldwide decline of coral reefs calls for an urgent reassessment of current management practices. Confronting large-scale crises requires a major scaling-up of management efforts based on an improved understanding of the ecological processes that underlie reef resilience. Managing for improved resilience, incorporating the role of human activity in shaping ecosystems, provides a basis for coping with uncertainty, future changes and ecological surprises. Here we review the ecological roles of critical functional groups (for both corals and reef fishes) that are fundamental to understanding resilience and avoiding phase shifts from coral dominance to less desirable, degraded ecosystems. We identify striking biogeographic differences in the species richness and composition of functional groups, which highlight the vulnerability of Caribbean reef ecosystems. These findings have profound implications for restoration of degraded reefs, management of fisheries, and the focus on marine protected areas and biodiversity hotspots as priorities for conservation.

The elusive baseline of marine disease: are diseases in ocean ecosystems increasing?

Disease outbreaks alter the structure and function of marine ecosystems, directly affecting vertebrates (mammals, turtles, fish), invertebrates (corals, crustaceans, echinoderms), and plants (seagrasses). Previous studies suggest a recent increase in marine disease. However, lack of baseline data in most communities prevents a direct test of this hypothesis. We developed a proxy to evaluate a prediction of the increasing disease hypothesis: the proportion of scientific publications reporting disease increased in recent decades. This represents, to our knowledge, the first quantitative use of normalized trends in the literature to investigate an ecological hypothesis. We searched a literature database for reports of parasites and disease (hereafter “disease”) in nine marine taxonomic groups from 1970 to 2001. Reports, normalized for research effort, increased in turtles, corals, mammals, urchins, and molluscs. No significant trends were detected for seagrasses, decapods, or sharks/rays (though disease occurred in these groups). Counter to the prediction, disease reports decreased in fishes. Formulating effective resource management policy requires understanding the basis and timing of marine disease events. Why disease outbreaks increased in some groups but not in others should be a priority for future investigation. The increase in several groups lends urgency to understanding disease dynamics, particularly since few viable options currently exist to mitigate disease in the oceans.

Reports of disease in the scientific literature, normalized to overall publication rates, detect important — and some unexpected — trends of disease in major groups of marine plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates

Pollution toxicity to the transmission of larval digeneans through their molluscan hosts

The increased occurrence of pollutants in ecosystems is a continuing area of concern. It is known that numerous diseases of wild aquatic animals can occur with decreased or increased prevalences in areas associated with high or chronic levels of pollution. This may have serious implications for environmental health. There has consequently been an increasing number of laboratory and field studies on disease transmission under polluted conditions, especially focusing on digeneans of medical or economic importance. The effect of pollutants to the transmission of larval digeneans (miracidia, cercariae, metacercariae) and snail-digenean interactions is therefore considered. An overview and interpretation of the published literature on laboratory and field studies is provided. It is apparent from these studies that the influence of pollutants on digenean transmission is highly complex with much of the observed effects in the laboratory often masked by a complexity of other factors in the field. Future studies would benefit from a standardisation of experimental procedures, increasing the number of combined laboratory and field studies, and increasing the complexity of the experiments undertaken.

Common themes in changing vector-borne disease scenarios

The impact of climate change on disease patterns is controversial. However, global burden of disease studies suggest that infectious diseases will contribute a proportionately smaller burden of disease over the next 2 decades as non-communicable diseases emerge as public health problems. However, infectious diseases contribute proportionately more in the poorest quintile of the population. Notwithstanding the different views of the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections this paper reviews the conditions which drive the changing epidemiology of these infections and suggests that such change is linked by common themes including interactions of generalist vectors and reservoir hosts at interfaces with humans, reduced biodiversity associated with anthropogenic environmental changes, increases in Plasmodium falciparum: P. vivax ratios and well-described land use changes such as hydrological, urbanization, agricultural, mining and forest-associated impacts (extractive activities, road building, deforestation and migration) which are seen on a global scale.

Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases

Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health.

Does the Animal Welfare Act apply to free-ranging animals?

Despite the long-standing role that institutional animal care and use committees (IACUCs) have played in reviewing and approving studies at academic institutions, compliance with the Animal Welfare Act (AWA) is not always complete for government natural resource agencies that use free-ranging animals in research and management studies. Even at universities, IACUCs face uncertainties about what activities are covered and about how to judge proposed research on free-ranging animals. One reason for much of the confusion is the AWA vaguely worded exemption for "field studies." In particular, fish are problematic because of the AWA exclusion of poikilothermic animals. However, most university IACUCs review studies on all animals, and the Interagency Research Animal Committee (IRAC) has published the "IRAC Principles," which extend coverage to all vertebrates used by federal researchers. Despite this extended coverage, many scientists working on wild animals continue to view compliance with the AWA with little enthusiasm. IACUCs, IACUC veterinarians, wildlife veterinarians, and fish and wildlife biologists must learn to work together to comply with the law and to protect the privilege of using free-ranging animals in research.

Comparative Tests of Parasite Species Richness in Primates

Some hosts harbor diverse parasite communities, whereas others are relatively parasite free. Many factors have been proposed to account for patterns of parasite species richness, but few studies have investigated competing hypotheses among multiple parasite communities in the same host clade. We used a comparative data set of 941 host-parasite combinations, representing 101 anthropoid primate species and 231 parasite taxa, to test the relative importance of four sets of variables that have been proposed as determinants of parasite community diversity in primates: host body mass and life history, social contact and population density, diet, and habitat diversity. We defined parasites broadly to include not only parasitic helminths and arthropods but also viruses, bacteria, fungi, and protozoa, and we controlled for effects of uneven sampling effort on per-host measures of parasite diversity. In nonphylogenetic tests, body mass was correlated with total parasite diversity and the diversity of helminths and viruses. When phylogeny was taken into account, however, body mass became nonsignificant. Host population density, a key determinant of parasite spread in many epidemiological models, was associated consistently with total parasite species richness and the diversity of helminths, protozoa, and viruses tested separately. Geographic range size and day range length explained significant variation in the diversity of viruses.

Pair-edge approximation for heterogeneous lattice population models

To increase the analytical tractability of lattice stochastic spatial population models, several approximations have been developed. The pair-edge approximation is a moment-closure method that is effective in predicting persistence criteria and invasion speeds on a homogeneous lattice. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of the pair-edge approximation on a spatially heterogeneous lattice in which some sites are unoccupiable, or "dead". This model has several possible interpretations, including a spatial SIS epidemic model, in which some sites are occupied by immobile host-species individuals while others are empty. We find that, as in the homogeneous model, the pair-edge approximation is significantly more accurate than the ordinary pair approximation in determining conditions for persistence. However, habitat heterogeneity decreases invasion speed more than is predicted by the pair-edge approximation, and the discrepancy increases with greater clustering of "dead" sites. The accuracy of the approximation validates the underlying heuristic picture of population spread and therefore provides qualitative insight into the dynamics of lattice models. Conversely, the situations where the approximation is less accurate reveals limitations of pair approximation in the presence of spatial heterogeneity.

Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs

The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

Long-term impacts of simulated climatic change on secondary metabolism, thallus structure and nitrogen fixation activity in two cyanolichens from the Arctic

• Although the most pronounced effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate warming probably will occur in polar regions, arctic lichens have not been much studied in relation to climate change. • Samples of two arctic cyanolichens of the genus Peltigera, exposed in situ to ambient and enhanced UV-B radiation and ambient and increased temperatures, were collected in 2001, 5 yr after the establishment of the experimental set-up. Thallus dimensions and size, coverage of soralia, nitrogen fixation activity and levels of UV-C-absorbing substances were measured. • Warming had pronounced positive effects on the tridepsides methyl gyrophorate and gyrophoric acid, and unidentified trace substances. However, the combination of enhanced UV-B and increased temperatures did not lead to higher than control levels. Warming reduced coverage of soralia. There were no significant treatment effects on thallus size, dimensions and nitrogen fixation activity. • UV-B radiation did not to have any adverse effects. The accumulation of tridepsides with warming may be related to increased activity of pathogenic microorganisms or insect herbivores.

Seaweed resistance to microbial attack: a targeted chemical defense against marine fungi

Pathogenic microbes can devastate populations of marine plants and animals. Yet, many sessile organisms such as seaweeds and sponges suffer remarkably low levels of microbial infection, despite lacking cell-based immune systems. Antimicrobial defenses of marine organisms are largely uncharacterized, although from a small number of studies it appears that chemical defenses may improve host resistance. In this study, we asked whether the common seaweed Lobophora variegata is chemically defended against potentially deleterious microorganisms. Using bioassay-guided fractionation, we isolated and characterized a 22-membered cyclic lactone, lobophorolide (1), of presumed polyketide origin, with sub-microM activity against pathogenic and saprophytic marine fungi. Deterrent concentrations of 1 were found in 46 of 51 samples collected from 10 locations in the Bahamas over a 4-year period. Lobophorolide (1) is structurally unprecedented, yet parts of the molecule are related to tolytoxin, the scytophycins, and the swinholides, macrolides previously isolated from terrestrial cyanobacteria and from marine sponges and gastropods. Until now, compounds of this structural class have not been associated with marine macrophytes. Our findings suggest that seaweeds use targeted antimicrobial chemical defense strategies and that secondary metabolites important in the ecological interactions between marine macroorganisms and microorganisms could be a promising source of novel bioactive compounds.