Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

Plant and seed germination responses to global change, with a focus on CO2: A review

Earth atmospheric CO2 concentration has risen by over 35% since 1750 and is presently increasing by about 2 parts per million (ppm) every year. Due to contributions from human activity, CO2 is projected to keep rising in the predictable future and to double sometime during this century if fossil fuels burning remains. As a result, air temperature is projected to rise from 2 to 5 °C by 2100. Following this rise in CO2, some ecosystems will face challenges in the next few decades as plants will live in warmer temperatures, higher evaporating demand and widespread changes in drought lengths and severity. To yield healthy crops and forests in changing climate surroundings, it is vital to define whether elevated CO2 disturbs seed germination and plant formation, but even more, the physiological traits conferring drought tolerance. Here, we review the current understanding on the role that CO2 plays on plant growth and seed germination, as well as its impact during the exposure of abiotic stresses like drought and salinity.

Validation of reference genes for quantitative PCR in the forest pest, Ips calligraphus

The six-spined ips, Ips calligraphus, is a North American bark beetle that can exploit most eastern North American Pinus species and can cause mortality. Biotic and abiotic disturbances weaken trees, creating breeding substrate that promotes rapid population growth. Management historically relied on silvicultural practices, but as forests become increasingly stressed, innovative management is needed. Manipulation of the cellular RNA interference (RNAi) pathway to induce gene silencing is an emerging means of insect suppression, and is effective for some bark beetles. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) is a powerful tool for analysis of gene expression, and is essential for examining RNAi. To compare gene expression among individuals, stably expressed reference genes must be validated for qPCR. We evaluated six candidate reference genes (18s, 16s, 28s, ef1a, cad, coi) for stability under biotic (beetle sex, developmental stage, and host plant), and abiotic (temperature, photoperiod, and dsRNA exposure) conditions. We used the comprehensive RefFinder tool to compare stability rankings across four algorithms. These algorithms identified 18s, 16s, and 28s as the most stably expressed. Overall, 16s and 28s were selected as reference genes due to their stability and moderate expression levels, and can be used for I. calligraphus gene expression studies using qPCR, including those evaluating RNAi.

Timing and magnitude of climatic extremes differentially elevate mortality but enhance recovery in a fish population

The countervailing effects of disturbances (e.g., high mortality and enhanced recovery) on population dynamics can occur through demographic processes under rapidly increasing climatic extremes. Across an extreme-event gradient, we mechanistically demonstrated how dramatic changes in streamflow have affected the population persistence of endangered salmon in monsoonal Taiwan over a three-decade period. Our modeling indicated that the dynamics of the age-structured population were attributed to demographic processes, in which extensive mortality was characterized as a function of climatic extremes and vulnerability in the young stage of fish. In the stochastic simulations, we found that the extensive mortality and high proportion of large fish resulted from extreme flooding, which caused high values of postimpact population recovery. Our empirical evidence suggests that the magnitudes and timing of disturbance can explain the population persistence when facing climatic extremes and thereby challenges the understanding of the mechanistic drivers of these countervailing phenomena under changing environmental conditions.

Predicting the growth of the amphibian chytrid fungus in varying temperature environments

Environmental temperature is a crucial abiotic factor that influences the success of ectothermic organisms, including hosts and pathogens in disease systems. One example is the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which has led to widespread amphibian population declines. Understanding its thermal ecology is essential to effectively predict outbreaks. Studies that examine the impact of temperature on hosts and pathogens often do so in controlled constant temperatures. Although varying temperature experiments are becoming increasingly common, it is unrealistic to test every temperature scenario. Thus, reliable methods that use constant temperature data to predict performance in varying temperatures are needed. In this study, we tested whether we could accurately predict Bd growth in three varying temperature regimes, using a Bayesian hierarchical model fit with constant temperature Bd growth data. We fit the Bayesian hierarchical model five times, each time changing the thermal performance curve (TPC) used to constrain the logistic growth rate to determine how TPCs influence the predictions. We then validated the model predictions using Bd growth data collected from the three tested varying temperature regimes. Although all TPCs overpredicted Bd growth in the varying temperature regimes, some functional forms performed better than others. Varying temperature impacts on disease systems are still not well understood and improving our understanding and methodologies to predict these effects could provide insights into disease systems and help conservation efforts.

Irrigation water intensity and climate variability: an agricultural crops analysis of Italian regions

This paper examines the relationship between the requirement of water resources for irrigation and climate variability and analyses the ranking of the best and worst performance of irrigation water intensity for each Italian region. To measure water resources demanded by agriculture, the irrigation water intensity (IWI) indicator has been computed as the ratio between volumes of irrigation water and total crop harvested. By applying panel data methodologies to a regional dataset spanning from 2000 to 2009, we may address heterogeneity and omitted variable issues. By merging meteo-climatic with agricultural variables, we may confirm that water precipitations, maximum temperature, irrigation propensity indicator, and yields are the main and relevant determinants of the IWI indicator. Moreover, results confirm our expectations that regions belonging to South and Islands macro-areas seem the best performers in terms of irrigation water intensity. Also, our analysis reveals limited availability of information on water resource data and suggests strengthening the need for regularly collecting data and producing statistics to support in designing adequate tools for optimal policies.

Holstein Friesian dairy cattle edited for diluted coat color as a potential adaptation to climate change

BACKGROUND

High-producing Holstein Friesian dairy cattle have a characteristic black and white coat, often with large proportions of black. Compared to a light coat color, black absorbs more solar radiation which is a contributing factor to heat stress in cattle. To better adapt dairy cattle to rapidly warming climates, we aimed to lighten their coat color by genome editing.

RESULTS

Using gRNA/Cas9-mediated editing, we introduced a three bp deletion in the pre-melanosomal protein 17 gene (PMEL) proposed as causative variant for the semi-dominant color dilution phenotype observed in Galloway and Highland cattle. Calves generated from cells with homozygous edits revealed a strong color dilution effect. Instead of the characteristic black and white markings of control calves generated from unedited cells, the edited calves displayed a novel grey and white coat pattern.

CONCLUSION

This, for the first time, verified the causative nature of the PMEL mutation for diluting the black coat color in cattle. Although only one of the calves was healthy at birth and later succumbed to a naval infection, the study showed the feasibility of generating such edited animals with the possibility to dissect the effects of the introgressed edit and other interfering allelic variants that might exist in individual cattle and accurately determine the impact of only the three bp change.

Limited thermal plasticity may constrain ecosystem function in a basally heat tolerant tropical telecoprid dung beetle, Allogymnopleurus thalassinus (Klug, 1855)

Tropical organisms are more vulnerable to climate change and associated heat stress as they live close to their upper thermal limits (UTLs). UTLs do not only vary little across tropical species according to the basal versus plasticity ‘trade-off’ theory but may also be further constrained by low genetic variation. We tested this hypothesis, and its effects on ecosystem function using a diurnally active dung rolling beetle (telecoprid), Allogymnopleurus thalassinus (Klug, 1855) that inhabits arid environments. Specifically, (i) we tested basal heat tolerance (critical thermal maxima [CT_max] and heat knockdown time [HKDT]), and (ii) ecological functioning (dung removal) efficiency following dynamic chronic acclimation temperatures of variable high (VT-H) (28–45 °C) and variable low (VT-L) (28–16 °C). Results showed that A. thalassinus had extremely high basal heat tolerance (> 50 °C CT_max and high HKDT). Effects of acclimation were significant for heat tolerance, significantly increasing and reducing CT_max values for variable temperature high and variable temperature low respectively. Similarly, effects of acclimation on HKDT were significant, with variable temperature high significantly increasing HKDT, while variable temperature low reduced HKDT. Effects of acclimation on ecological traits showed that beetles acclimated to variable high temperatures were ecologically more efficient in their ecosystem function (dung removal) compared to those acclimated at variable low temperatures. Allogymnopleurus thalassinus nevertheless, had low acclimation response ratios, signifying limited scope for complete plasticity for UTLs tested here. This result supports the ‘trade-off’ theory, and that observed limited plasticity may unlikely buffer A. thalassinus against effects of climate change, and by extension, albeit with caveats to other tropical ecological service providing insect species. This work provides insights on the survival mechanisms of tropical species against heat and provides a framework for the conservation of these natural capital species that inhabit arid environments under rapidly changing environmental climate.

Adoption of Durum Wheat Cultivar 'Salim' with a Technical Package and Its Resilience to Climate Change Impacts in Smallholders: Case of Nebeur/Kef Region, Tunisia

In recent years, there has been an urgent need for local strategies to ensure food sustainability in Tunisia, recognized as a climate change hotspot region. In this context, adaptation measures, including the adoption of high-yielding durum wheat cultivars with adequate agronomical practices, are an important avenue to improving the productivity of the smallholders that represent 80% of Tunisian farmers. Thus, this study highlights the impact of (i) the adoption of the recently marketed durum wheat cultivar 'Salim' as compared to the common cultivar 'Karim' and the transfer of a technical package to 11 farmers in the Nebeur delegation/Kef-Tunisia (semi-arid region) during the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 cropping seasons, and (ii) climate change on the expected mean grain yield and biomass by 2070, using the CropSyst agronomic cultivation model based on multi-year crop simulations run with a daily weather series (2020-2070). The adoption of 'Salim' with the recommended package, compared to 'Karim' with the farmer practices, significantly increased the grain yield (37.84%) and biomass (55.43%). Otherwise, the impact of the 0.8 °C temperature rise on the potential yields and biomass over the next 51 years was positive. Contrary to expectations, the yield increases for the two cultivars were very close, but the yield of 'Salim' (36.02 q ha^-1) remains much higher than that of 'Karim' (23.34 q ha^-1). On other hand, 'Salim' experienced a higher increase for biomass compared to that of 'Karim'. These results indicate that the adoption of the 'Salim' cultivar with its technical package might be considered as a strategy of adaptation to Nebeur conditions and to future climate change events.

Extreme climate event promotes phenological mismatch between sexes in hibernating ground squirrels

Hibernating ground squirrels rely on a short active period for breeding and mass accrual, and are thus vulnerable to extreme climate events that affect key periods in their annual cycle. Here, we document how a heatwave in March 2012 led to a phenological mismatch between sexes in Richardson’s ground squirrels (Urocitellus richardsonii). Females emerged from hibernation and commenced breeding earlier in 2012 relative to average female emergence. Although males had descended testes and pigmented scrota, it appeared that not all males were physiologically prepared to breed since 58.6% of males had non-motile sperm when breeding commenced. Body condition, relative testes size, and the relative size of accessory glands were significant predictors of sperm motility. Males with non-motile sperm had smaller accessory glands than males with motile sperm. There was no decrease in the number of juveniles that emerged in 2012 or female yearlings recruited in 2013, nor did juveniles emerge later than other years. The impact of this heatwave on male ground squirrels emphasizes the importance of assessing the consequences of climate change on the breeding success of hibernating species in both sexes, since the different sensitivity to external cues for emergence led to a mismatch in timing under this event.

Functional diversity buffers the effects of a pulse perturbation on the dynamics of tritrophic food webs

Biodiversity decline causes a loss of functional diversity, which threatens ecosystems through a dangerous feedback loop: This loss may hamper ecosystems' ability to buffer environmental changes, leading to further biodiversity losses. In this context, the increasing frequency of human-induced excessive loading of nutrients causes major problems in aquatic systems. Previous studies investigating how functional diversity influences the response of food webs to disturbances have mainly considered systems with at most two functionally diverse trophic levels. We investigated the effects of functional diversity on the robustness, that is, resistance, resilience, and elasticity, using a tritrophic-and thus more realistic-plankton food web model. We compared a non-adaptive food chain with no diversity within the individual trophic levels to a more diverse food web with three adaptive trophic levels. The species fitness differences were balanced through trade-offs between defense/growth rate for prey and selectivity/half-saturation constant for predators. We showed that the resistance, resilience, and elasticity of tritrophic food webs decreased with larger perturbation sizes and depended on the state of the system when the perturbation occurred. Importantly, we found that a more diverse food web was generally more resistant and resilient but its elasticity was context-dependent. Particularly, functional diversity reduced the probability of a regime shift toward a non-desirable alternative state. The basal-intermediate interaction consistently determined the robustness against a nutrient pulse despite the complex influence of the shape and type of the dynamical attractors. This relationship was strongly influenced by the diversity present and the third trophic level. Overall, using a food web model of realistic complexity, this study confirms the destructive potential of the positive feedback loop between biodiversity loss and robustness, by uncovering mechanisms leading to a decrease in resistance, resilience, and potentially elasticity as functional diversity declines.

Timing outweighs magnitude of rainfall in shaping population dynamics of a small mammal species in steppe grassland

Disentangling the effects of rainfall timing and magnitude on animal and plant populations is essential to reveal the biological consequence of diverse climate change scenarios around the world. We conducted a 10-y, large-scale, manipulative experiment to examine the bottom-up effects of changes in rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Brandt’s voles in the steppe grassland of Inner Mongolia, China. We found that a moderate rainfall increase during the early growing season could produce marked increases in vole population size by increasing the biomass of preferred plant species, whereas large increases in rainfall produced no additional increase in vole population growth. Our study highlights the importance of rainfall magnitude and timing on the nonlinear population dynamics of herbivores.

Climate change–induced shifts in species phenology differ widely across trophic levels, which may lead to consumer–resource mismatches with cascading population and ecosystem consequences. Here, we examined the effects of different rainfall patterns (i.e., timing and amount) on the phenological asynchrony of population of a generalist herbivore and their food sources in semiarid steppe grassland in Inner Mongolia. We conducted a 10-y (2010 to 2019) rainfall manipulation experiment in 12 0.48-ha field enclosures and found that moderate rainfall increases during the early rather than late growing season advanced the timing of peak reproduction and drove marked increases in population size through increasing the biomass of preferred plant species. By contrast, greatly increased rainfall produced no further increases in vole population growth due to the potential negative effect of the flooding of burrows. The increases in vole population size were more coupled with increased reproduction of overwintered voles and increased body mass of young-of-year than with better survival. Our results provide experimental evidence for the fitness consequences of phenological mismatches at the population level and highlight the importance of rainfall timing on the population dynamics of small herbivores in the steppe grassland environment.

Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Cooling Events in Winter over China and Their Relationship with Arctic Oscillation

Extreme weather and climate events are becoming increasingly frequent and have gained an increasing amount of attention. Extreme cooling (EC) events are a major challenge to socioeconomic sustainability and human health. Based on meteorological stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial distributions of EC events in winter in China by using the relative threshold and the relationship between EC events and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index during the period of 1961–2017. The results show that the frequency of EC events in China decreased by 0.730 d in these 57 years, with a trend of −0.1 d/10 y. Northeast China had the highest frequency of EC events in winter, with an average of 4 d. In addition, EC events are significantly negatively correlated with the AO index in China, with a correlation coefficient of −0.5, and the AO index accounts for approximately 21% of the EC event variance. The strongest correlations are mainly located in Northwest China. Our research shows that significant changes in the mid–high latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies, which are associated with the AO, are responsible for EC events. These findings provide theoretical guidance for the prediction and simulation of EC events.

Responses to Developmental Temperature Fluctuation in Life History Traits of Five Drosophila Species (Diptera: Drosophilidae) from Different Thermal Niches

Temperature has profound effects on biochemical processes as suggested by the extensive variation in performance of organisms across temperatures. Nonetheless, the use of fluctuating temperature (FT) regimes in laboratory experiments compared to constant temperature (CT) regimes is still mainly applied in studies of model organisms. We investigated how two amplitudes of developmental temperature fluctuation (22.5/27.5 °C and 20/30 °C, 12/12 h) affected several fitness-related traits in five Drosophila species with markedly different thermal resistance. Egg-to-adult viability did not change much with temperature except in the cold-adapted D. immigrans. Developmental time increased with FT among all species compared to the same mean CT. The impact of FT on wing size was quite diverse among species. Whereas wing size decreased quasi-linearly with CT in all species, there were large qualitative differences with FT. Changes in wing aspect ratio due to FT were large compared to the other traits and presumably a consequence of thermal stress. These results demonstrate that species of the same genus but with different thermal resistance can show substantial differences in responses to fluctuating developmental temperatures not predictable by constant developmental temperatures. Testing multiple traits facilitated the interpretation of responses to FT in a broader context.

Effects of Hyperthermia on TRPV1 and TRPV4 Channels Expression and Oxidative Markers in Mouse Brain

Heat stress increases the core body temperature through the pathogenic process. The pathogenic process leads to the release of free radicals, such as superoxide production. Heat stress in the central nervous system (CNS) can cause neuronal damage and symptoms such as delirium, coma, and convulsion. TRPV1 (Transient Receptor Potential Vanilloid1) and TRPV4 genes are members of the TRPV family, including integral membrane proteins that act as calcium-permeable channels. These channels act as thermosensors and have essential roles in the cellular regulation of heat responses. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of general heat stress on the expression of TRPV1 and TRPV4 channels. Furthermore, oxidative markers were measured in the brain of the same heat-stressed mice. Our results show that heat stress leads to a significant upregulation of TRPV1 expression within 21-42 days, while TRPV4 expression decreased significantly in a time-dependent manner. Alterations in the oxidative markers were also observed in the heat-stressed mice.

Global effects of extreme temperatures on wild bumblebees

Climate plays a key role in shaping population trends and determining the geographic distribution of species because of limits in species' thermal tolerance. An evaluation of species tolerance to temperature change can therefore help predict their potential spatial shifts and population trends triggered by ongoing global warming. We assessed inter- and intraspecific variations in heat resistance in relation to body mass, local mean temperatures, and evolutionary relationships in 39 bumblebee species, a major group of pollinators in temperate and cold ecosystems, across 3 continents, 6 biomes, and 20 regions (2386 male specimens). Based on experimental bioassays, we measured the time before heat stupor of bumblebee males at a heatwave temperature of 40 °C. Interspecific variability was significant, in contrast to interpopulational variability, which was consistent with heat resistance being a species-specific trait. Moreover, cold-adapted species are much more sensitive to heat stress than temperate and Mediterranean species. Relative to their sensitivity to extreme temperatures, our results help explain recent population declines and range shifts in bumblebees following climate change.

Physiological impacts of temperature variability and climate warming in hellbenders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis)

Cold-adapted hellbender salamanders that inhabit cool mountain streams are expected to fare poorly under warmer projected climate scenarios. This study investigated the physiological consequences of long-term, naturalistic temperature variation on juvenile hellbenders under simulated current and warmer (+1.6 C) climates vs. controlled steady temperatures. Mean temperature and temperature variability were both important predictors of growth as indicated by monthly body mass change (%), stress as indicated by neutrophil:lymphocyte (N:L) ratio and bacteria-killing ability of blood. Cold exposure in hellbenders was associated with weight loss, increased N:L ratios and reduced Escherichia coli killing ability of blood, and these effects were less pronounced under a warmer climate scenario. These observations suggest that cold periods may be more stressful for hellbenders than previously understood. Growth rates peaked in late spring and late fall around 14-17°C. Hellbenders experiencing warmer simulated climates retained body condition better in winter, but this was counter-balanced by a prolonged lack of growth in the 3-month summer period leading up to the fall breeding season where warmer simulated conditions resulted in an average loss of -0.6% body mass/month, compared to a gain +1.5% body mass/month under current climate scenario. Hellbenders can physiologically tolerate projected warmer temperatures and temperature fluctuations, but warmer summers may cause animals to enter the fall breeding season with a caloric deficit that may have population-level consequences.

Disentangling environmental drivers of circadian metabolism in desert-adapted mice

Metabolism is a complex phenotype shaped by natural environmental rhythms, as well as behavioral, morphological and physiological adaptations. Metabolism has been historically studied under constant environmental conditions, but new methods of continuous metabolic phenotyping now offer a window into organismal responses to dynamic environments, and enable identification of abiotic controls and the timing of physiological responses relative to environmental change. We used indirect calorimetry to characterize metabolic phenotypes of the desert-adapted cactus mouse (Peromyscus eremicus) in response to variable environmental conditions that mimic their native environment versus those recorded under constant warm and constant cool conditions, with a constant photoperiod and full access to resources. We found significant sexual dimorphism, with males being more prone to dehydration than females. Under circadian environmental variation, most metabolic shifts occurred prior to physical environmental change and the timing was disrupted under both constant treatments. The ratio of CO2 produced to O2 consumed (the respiratory quotient) reached greater than 1.0 only during the light phase under diurnally variable conditions, a pattern that strongly suggests that lipogenesis contributes to the production of energy and endogenous water. Our results are consistent with historical descriptions of circadian torpor in this species (torpid by day, active by night), but reject the hypothesis that torpor is initiated by food restriction or negative water balance.

Assessment of trends in climatic extremes from observational data in the Kashmir basin, NW Himalaya

The present study aims to assess the recent changes and trends in the extreme climate indices in the Kashmir basin using the observational records from 1980 to 2016. The extreme climate indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software and a total of 39 indices were selected for the analysis having particular utility to various sectors like agriculture, water resources, energy consumption, and human health. Besides adopting the station scale analysis, regional averages were computed for each index. In terms of the mean climatology, an increase has been observed in the annual mean temperature with a magnitude of 0.024 °C/year. Further, differential warming patterns have been observed in the mean maximum and minimum temperatures with mean maximum temperature revealing higher increases than mean minimum temperature. On the other hand, the annual precipitation shows a decrease over most of the region, and the decreases are more pronouncing in the higher altitudes. The trend analysis of the extreme indices reveals that in consonance with the rising temperature there has been an increase in the warm temperatures and decrease in the cold temperatures across the Kashmir basin. Furthermore, our analysis suggests a decrease in the extreme precipitation events. The drought indices viz., Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) manifest decreasing trends with the tendency towards drier regimes implying the need for better water resource management in the region under changing climate.

Limited plasticity in thermally tolerant ectotherm populations: evidence for a trade-off

Many species face extinction risks owing to climate change, and there is an urgent need to identify which species' populations will be most vulnerable. Plasticity in heat tolerance, which includes acclimation or hardening, occurs when prior exposure to a warmer temperature changes an organism's upper thermal limit. The capacity for thermal acclimation could provide protection against warming, but prior work has found few generalizable patterns to explain variation in this trait. Here, we report the results of, to our knowledge, the first meta-analysis to examine within-species variation in thermal plasticity, using results from 20 studies (19 species) that quantified thermal acclimation capacities across 78 populations. We used meta-regression to evaluate two leading hypotheses. The climate variability hypothesis predicts that populations from more thermally variable habitats will have greater plasticity, while the trade-off hypothesis predicts that populations with the lowest heat tolerance will have the greatest plasticity. Our analysis indicates strong support for the trade-off hypothesis because populations with greater thermal tolerance had reduced plasticity. These results advance our understanding of variation in populations' susceptibility to climate change and imply that populations with the highest thermal tolerance may have limited phenotypic plasticity to adjust to ongoing climate warming.

Slower environmental cycles maintain greater life-history variation within populations

Populations in nature are comprised of individual life histories, whose variation underpins ecological and evolutionary processes. Yet the forces of environmental selection that shape intrapopulation life-history variation are still not well-understood, and efforts have largely focused on random (stochastic) fluctuations of the environment. However, a ubiquitous mode of environmental fluctuation in nature is cyclical, whose periodicities can change independently of stochasticity. Here, we test theoretically based hypotheses for whether shortened ('Fast') or lengthened ('Slow') environmental cycles should generate higher intrapopulation variation of life history phenotypes. We show, through a combination of agent-based modelling and a multi-generational laboratory selection experiment using the tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus, that slower environmental cycles maintain higher levels of intrapopulation variation. Surprisingly, the effect of environmental periodicity on variation was much stronger than that of stochasticity. Thus, our results show that periodicity is an important facet of fluctuating environments for life-history variation.

Microhabitats associated with solar energy development alter demography of two desert annuals

Political and economic initiatives intended to increase energy production while reducing carbon emissions are driving demand for solar energy. Consequently, desert regions are now targeted for development of large-scale photovoltaic solar energy facilities. Where vegetation communities are left intact or restored within facilities, ground-mounted infrastructure may have negative impacts on desert-adapted plants because it creates novel rainfall runoff and shade conditions. We used experimental solar arrays in the Mojave Desert to test how these altered conditions affect population dynamics for a closely related pair of native annual plants: rare Eriophyllum mohavense and common E. wallacei. We estimated aboveground demographic rates (seedling emergence, survivorship, and fecundity) over 7 yr and used seed bank survival rates from a concurrent study to build matrix models of population growth in three experimental microhabitats. In drier years, shade tended to reduce survival of the common species, but increase survival of the rare species. In a wet year, runoff from panels tended to increase seed output for both species. Population growth projections from microhabitat-specific matrix models showed stronger effects of microhabitat under wetter conditions, and relatively little effect under dry conditions (lack of rainfall was an overwhelming constraint). Performance patterns across microhabitats in the wettest year differed between rare and common species. Projected growth of E. mohavense was substantially reduced in shade, mediated by negative effects on aboveground demographic rates. Hence, the rare species were more susceptible to negative effects of panel infrastructure in wet years that are critical to seed bank replenishment. Our results suggest that altered shade and water runoff regimes associated with energy infrastructure will have differential effects on demographic transitions across annual species and drive population-level processes that determine local abundance, resilience, and persistence.

Knowledge map and global trends in extreme weather research from 1980 to 2019: a bibliometric analysis

There is an increasing number of studies focusing on extreme weather all over the world, but global trends and research topics related to extreme weather are still unclear. This study aimed to explore the current situation, research themes, and future trends in the field of extreme weather. Publications published from 1980 to 2019 were identified and retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection databases by using keywords on May 5, 2020. Excel 2019, VOSviewer, R, and CiteSpace were used for scientific analysis. The results showed that (1) the number of publications on extreme weather research has rapidly increased and expanded continually, shifting from core disciplines to interdisciplinary fields; (2) the International Journal of Climatology was the most productive journal, and climate and environment were the most popular subject categories. Most studies were carried out in the USA, China, Germany, and other nations, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution; (3) the main research topics were summarized as (a) climate change; (b) variability; (c) trends; (d) rainfall; (e) temperature; and (f) maximum. At the same time, (4) keyword bursts analysis showed that the domain focused on changes to atmospheric rivers, the impacts of global nitrogen content on extreme weather, and the relationship between water quality, soil moisture content, and extreme weather. Based on the in-depth analysis of extreme weather research, this paper developed a further understanding of the developments in this field over the past 39 years and also provided a reference for future research.

Phytoplankton biodiversity is more important for ecosystem functioning in highly variable thermal environments

The 21st century has seen an acceleration of anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity loss, with both stressors deemed to affect ecosystem functioning. However, we know little about the interactive effects of both stressors and in particular about the interaction of increased climatic variability and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning. This should be remedied because larger climatic variability is one of the main features of climate change. Here, we demonstrated that temperature fluctuations led to changes in the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem functioning. We used microcosm communities of different phytoplankton species richness and exposed them to a constant, mild, and severe temperature-fluctuating environment. Wider temperature fluctuations led to steeper biodiversity-ecosystem functioning slopes, meaning that species loss had a stronger negative effect on ecosystem functioning in more fluctuating environments. For severe temperature fluctuations, the slope increased through time due to a decrease of the productivity of species-poor communities over time. We developed a theoretical competition model to better understand our experimental results and showed that larger differences in thermal tolerances across species led to steeper biodiversity-ecosystem functioning slopes. Species-rich communities maintained their ecosystem functioning with increased fluctuation as they contained species able to resist the thermally fluctuating environments, while this was on average not the case in species-poor communities. Our results highlight the importance of biodiversity for maintaining ecosystem functions and services in the context of increased climatic variability under climate change.

The interplay between heated environment and active standing test on cardiovascular autonomic control in healthy individuals

Objective.To investigate the interplay between active standing and heat stress on cardiovascular autonomic modulation in healthy individuals.Approach.Blood pressure (BP) and ECG were continuously recorded during 30 min in supine (SUP) and 6 min in orthostatic position (ORT) under thermal reference (TC; ∼24 °C) or heated environment (HOT; ∼36 °C) conditions, in a randomized order. All data collection was performed during the winter and spring seasons when typical outdoor temperatures are ∼23 °C. Spectral analysis was employed by the autoregressive model of R-R and systolic blood pressure (SBP) time series and defined, within each band, in low (LF, 0.04 to 0.15 Hz) and high (0.15-0.40 Hz) frequencies. The indices of cardiac sympathetic (LF) and cardiac parasympathetic (HF) were normalized (nu) dividing each band power by the total power subtracted the very-low component (<0.04 Hz), obtaining the cardiac autonomic balance (LF/HF) modulation. The gain of the relationship between SBP and R-R variabilities within the LF band was utilized for analysis of spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity (alpha index;αLF). Nonlinear analysis was employed through symbolic dynamics of R-R, which provided the percentage of sequences of three heart periods without changes in R-R interval (0V%; cardiac sympathetic modulation) and two significant variations (2UV% and 2LV%; cardiac vagal modulation).Main results.HOT increased 0V% and HR, and decreasedαLF and 2UV% during SUP compared to TC. During ORT, HOT provokes a greater increment on HR, LF/HF and 0V%, indexes compared to ORT under TC.Significance.At rest, heat stress influences both autonomic branches, increasing sympathetic and decreasing vagal modulation and spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity. The augmented HR during active standing under heat stress seems to be mediated by a greater increment in cardiac sympathetic modulation, showing an interplay between gravitational and thermal stimulus.

Temperature effects on forest understorey plants in hedgerows: a combined warming and transplant experiment

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hedgerows have been shown to improve forest connectivity, leading to an increased probability of species tracking the shifting bioclimatic envelopes. However, it is still unknown how species in hedgerows respond to temperature changes, and whether effects differ compared with those in nearby forests. We aimed to elucidate how ongoing changes in the climate system will affect the efficiency of hedgerows in supporting forest plant persistence and migration in agricultural landscapes.

METHODS

Here we report results from the first warming experiment in hedgerows. We combined reciprocal transplantation of plants along an 860-km latitudinal transect with experimental warming to assess the effects of temperature on vegetative growth and reproduction of two common forest herbs (Anemone nemorosa and Geum urbanum) in hedgerows versus forests.

KEY RESULTS

Both species grew taller and produced more biomass in forests than in hedgerows, most likely due to higher competition with ruderals and graminoids in hedgerows. Adult plant performance of both species generally benefitted from experimental warming, despite lower survival of A. nemorosa in heated plots. Transplantation affected the species differently: A. nemorosa plants grew taller, produced more biomass and showed higher survival when transplanted at their home site, indicating local adaptation, while individuals of G. urbanum showed greater height, biomass, reproductive output and survival when transplanted northwards, likely owing to the higher light availability associated with increasing photoperiod during the growing season.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate that some forest herbs can show phenotypic plasticity to warming temperatures, potentially increasing their ability to benefit from hedgerows as ecological corridors. Our study thus provides novel insights into the impacts of climate change on understorey plant community dynamics in hedgerows, and how rising temperature can influence the efficiency of these corridors to assist forest species' persistence and colonization within and beyond their current distribution range.

Late-stage pregnancy reduces upper thermal tolerance in a live-bearing fish

Upper thermal limits are considered a key determinant of a population's ability to persist in the face of extreme heat events. However, these limits differ considerably among individuals within a population, and the mechanisms underlying this differential sensitivity are not well understood. Upper thermal tolerance in aquatic ectotherms is thought to be determined by a mismatch between oxygen supply and the increased metabolic demands associated with warmer waters. As such, tolerance is expected to decline during reproduction given the heightened oxygen demand for gamete production and maintenance. Among live-bearing species, upper thermal tolerance of reproductive adults may decline even further after fertilization due to the cost of meeting the increasing oxygen demands of developing embryos. We examined the upper thermal tolerance of live-bearing female Trinidadian guppies at different stages of reproduction and found that critical thermal maximum was similar during the egg yolking and early embryos stage but then declined by almost 0.5 °C during late pregnancy when oxygen demands are the greatest. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that oxygen limitation sets thermal limits and show that reproduction is associated with a decline in upper thermal tolerance.

Is the Life History Flexibility of Cold Desert Annuals Broad Enough to Cope with Predicted Climate Change? The Case of Erodium oxyrhinchum in Central Asia

Interannual seasonal variability in precipitation may strongly affect the life history and growth of desert annual plants. We compared the effects of dry and wet springs and dry and wet autumns on growth and F2 seed dormancy of plants from spring (SG)- and autumn (AG)-germinated seeds of the cold desert annual Erodium oxyrhinchum. Vegetative and reproductive growth and F2 seed dormancy and germination were monitored from September 2016 to November 2020 in the sandy Gurbantunggut Desert in NW China in Central Asia. Dry autumns decreased the density of AG plants, and dry springs decreased the density of SG plants and growth of SG and AG plants. In dry springs, SG plants were more sensitive to precipitation than AG plants, while in wet springs SG and AG plants had similar responses to precipitation. During growth in both dry and wet springs, most morphological characters of SG and AG plants initially increased rapidly in size/number and then plateaued or decreased, except for SG plants in dry springs. In dry springs, most morphological characters of AG plants were larger or more numerous than those of SG plants, and they were larger/more numerous for SG plants in wet than in dry springs. The percentage biomass allocated to reproduction in SG plants was slightly higher in a wet than in a dry spring. A much higher proportion of dormant seeds was produced by AG plants in a wet spring than in a dry spring. Projected changes in precipitation due to climate change in NW China are not likely to have much of an effect on the biology of this common desert annual plant.

Theory of temperature-dependent consumer-resource interactions

Changes in temperature affect consumer-resource interactions, which underpin the functioning of ecosystems. However, existing studies report contrasting predictions regarding the impacts of warming on biological rates and community dynamics. To improve prediction accuracy and comparability, we develop an approach that combines sensitivity analysis and aggregate parameters. The former determines which biological parameters impact the community most strongly. The use of aggregate parameters (i.e., maximal energetic efficiency, ρ, and interaction strength, κ), that combine multiple biological parameters, increases explanatory power and reduces the complexity of theoretical analyses. We illustrate the approach using empirically derived thermal dependence curves of biological rates and applying it to consumer-resource biomass ratio and community stability. Based on our analyses, we generate four predictions: (1) resource growth rate regulates biomass distributions at mild temperatures, (2) interaction strength alone determines the thermal boundaries of the community, (3) warming destabilises dynamics at low and mild temperatures only and (4) interactions strength must decrease faster than maximal energetic efficiency for warming to stabilise dynamics. We argue for the potential benefits of directly working with the aggregate parameters to increase the accuracy of predictions on warming impacts on food webs and promote cross-system comparisons.

Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change Using Large Deviation Theory

Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we define the climatology of persistent heatwaves and cold spells in key target geographical regions by estimating the rate functions for the surface temperature, and we assess the impact of increasing CO_{2} concentration on such persistent anomalies. Hence, we can better quantify the increasing hazard due to heatwaves in a warmer climate. We show that two 2010 high impact events-summer Russian heatwave and winter Dzud in Mongolia-are associated with atmospheric patterns that are exceptional compared to the typical ones but typical compared to the climatology of extremes. Their dynamics is encoded in the natural variability of the climate. Finally, we propose and test an approximate formula for the return times of large and persistent temperature fluctuations from easily accessible statistical properties.

Impact of Temperature on the Immune Interaction between a Parasitoid Wasp and Drosophila Host Species

Temperature is particularly important for ectotherms, including endoparasitoid wasps that develop inside another ectotherm host. In this study, we tested the impact of three temperatures (20 °C, 25 °C and 30 °C) on the host-parasitoid immune interaction using two Drosophila host species (Drosophila melanogaster and D. yakuba) and two parasitoid lines of Leptopilina boulardi. Drosophila's immune defense against parasitoids consists of the formation of a melanized capsule surrounding the parasitoid egg. To counteract this response, Leptopilina parasitoids rely on the injection of venom during oviposition. Here, we tested the effect of temperature on parasitic success and host encapsulation capacity in response to a parasitoid egg or other foreign body. Increased temperature either promoted or did not affect the parasitic success, depending on the parasitoid-host pairs considered. The mechanisms behind the higher success seemed to vary depending on whether the temperature primarily affected the host immune response or also affected the parasitoid counter-immune response. Next, we tested the effect of parasitoid rearing temperature on its success and venom composition. Venom composition varied strongly with temperature for both parasitoid lines, partially consistent with a change in their parasitic success. Overall, temperature may have a significant impact on the host-parasitoid immune interaction.

Climate instability causing the decline of a Neotropical savanna lizard population (Squamata: Tropiduridae)

Populations that evolved in predictable seasonal environments might not have mechanisms to deal with unpredictable climate change. Assessing whether these populations can cope with recent increases in climate extremes and variability can better inform conservation efforts. We investigated the effects of climate deviations and fire on the population dynamics of the lizard Tropidurus torquatus in the Cerrado of Brazil. We decomposed six climate variables into seasonal and non-seasonal components and assessed which factors, along with long- and short-term effects of fire, better accounted for variation in the survival and recruitment of a T. torquatus population monitored for 12 years. Survival was not associated with climate seasonality, and instead minor fluctuations were related to temperature extremes. Recruitment benefited from long-term fire effects and had a strong seasonal component accounting for most of the variation in the population. Climate deviations caused severe changes in the number of recruits each year, with an overall negative effect on population growth. Population growth was more sensitive to recruitment than to survival, resulting in a sharp population decline over the study period. Tropidurus torquatus, and perhaps other species that evolved in similar conditions, can mitigate the demographic effects of fire but lack mechanisms to deal with climate deviation occurring over relatively short periods.

Global trends in phenotypic plasticity of plants

Predicting plastic responses is crucial to assess plant species potential to adapt to climate change, but little is known about which factors drive the biogeographical patterns of phenotypic plasticity in plants. Theory predicts that climatic variability would select for increased phenotypic plasticity, whereas evidence indicates that stressful conditions can limit phenotypic plasticity. Using a meta-analytic, phylogeny-corrected approach to global data on plant phenotypic plasticity, we tested whether latitude, climate, climatic variability and/or stressful conditions are predictors of plastic responses at a biogeographical scale. We found support for a positive association between phenotypic plasticity and climatic variability only for plasticity in allocation. Plasticity in leaf morphology, size and physiology were positively associated with mean annual temperature. We also found evidence that phenotypic plasticity in physiology is limited by cold stress. Overall, plant plastic responses to non-climatic factors were stronger than responses to climatic factors. However, while climatic conditions were associated with plant plastic responses to climatic factors, they generally did not relate to plastic responses to other abiotic or biotic factors. Our study highlights the need to consider those factors that favour and limit phenotypic plasticity in order to improve predictive frameworks addressing plant species' potential to adapt to climate change.

Anticipated effects of abiotic environmental change on intraspecific social interactions

Social interactions are ubiquitous across the animal kingdom. A variety of ecological and evolutionary processes are dependent on social interactions, such as movement, disease spread, information transmission, and density-dependent reproduction and survival. Social interactions, like any behaviour, are context dependent, varying with environmental conditions. Currently, environments are changing rapidly across multiple dimensions, becoming warmer and more variable, while habitats are increasingly fragmented and contaminated with pollutants. Social interactions are expected to change in response to these stressors and to continue to change into the future. However, a comprehensive understanding of the form and magnitude of the effects of these environmental changes on social interactions is currently lacking. Focusing on four major forms of rapid environmental change currently occurring, we review how these changing environmental gradients are expected to have immediate effects on social interactions such as communication, agonistic behaviours, and group formation, which will thereby induce changes in social organisation including mating systems, dominance hierarchies, and collective behaviour. Our review covers intraspecific variation in social interactions across environments, including studies in both the wild and in laboratory settings, and across a range of taxa. The expected responses of social behaviour to environmental change are diverse, but we identify several general themes. First, very dry, variable, fragmented, or polluted environments are likely to destabilise existing social systems. This occurs as these conditions limit the energy available for complex social interactions and affect dissimilar phenotypes differently. Second, a given environmental change can lead to opposite responses in social behaviour, and the direction of the response often hinges on the natural history of the organism in question. Third, our review highlights the fact that changes in environmental factors are not occurring in isolation: multiple factors are changing simultaneously, which may have antagonistic or synergistic effects, and more work should be done to understand these combined effects. We close by identifying methodological and analytical techniques that might help to study the response of social interactions to changing environments, highlight consistent patterns among taxa, and predict subsequent evolutionary change. We expect that the changes in social interactions that we document here will have consequences for individuals, groups, and for the ecology and evolution of populations, and therefore warrant a central place in the study of animal populations, particularly in an era of rapid environmental change.

Drought and heat wave impacts on grassland carbon cycling across hierarchical levels

Droughts and heat waves are increasing in magnitude and frequency, altering the carbon cycle. However, understanding of the underlying response mechanisms remains poor, especially for the combination (hot drought). We conducted a 4-year field experiment to examine both individual and interactive effects of drought and heat wave on carbon cycling of a semiarid grassland across individual, functional group, community and ecosystem levels. Drought did not change below-ground biomass (BGB) or above-ground biomass (AGB) due to compensation effects between grass and non-grass functional groups. However, consistently decreased BGB under heat waves limited such compensation effects, resulting in reduced AGB. Ecosystem CO₂ fluxes were suppressed by droughts, attributed to stomatal closure-induced reductions in leaf photosynthesis and decreased AGB of grasses, while CO₂ fluxes were little affected by heat waves. Overall the hot drought produced the lowest leaf photosynthesis, AGB and ecosystem CO₂ fluxes although the interactions between heat wave and drought were usually not significant. Our results highlight that the functional group compensatory effects that maintain community-level AGB rely on feedback of root system responses, and that plant adjustments at the individual level, together with shifts in composition at the functional group level, co-regulate ecosystem carbon sink strength under climate extremes.

Plant heat stress: Concepts directing future research

Predicted increases in future global temperatures require us to better understand the dimensions of heat stress experienced by plants. Here we highlight four key areas for improving our approach towards understanding plant heat stress responses. First, although the term 'heat stress' is broadly used, that term encompasses heat shock, heat wave and warming experiments, which vary in the duration and magnitude of temperature increase imposed. A greater integration of results and tools across these approaches is needed to better understand how heat stress associated with global warming will affect plants. Secondly, there is a growing need to associate plant responses to tissue temperatures. We review how plant energy budgets determine tissue temperature and discuss the implications of using leaf versus air temperature for heat stress studies. Third, we need to better understand how heat stress affects reproduction, particularly understudied stages such as floral meristem initiation and development. Fourth, we emphasise the need to integrate heat stress recovery into breeding programs to complement recent progress in improving plant heat stress tolerance. Taken together, we provide insights into key research gaps in plant heat stress and provide suggestions on addressing these gaps to enhance heat stress resilience in plants.

Birds of different morphs use slightly different strategies to achieve similar reproductive performance following heatwave exposure

Responses to extreme climatic events may differ between individuals of distinct morphs which differ in life-history strategies, resulting in climate change 'winners' and 'losers' within species. We examined the reproductive performance and carry-over effects on offspring of black- and red-headed Gouldian finches Erythrura gouldiae after exposure to simulated heatwaves of moderate or severe intensity. We expected black-headed pairs' reproductive performance to decline after the severe heatwave because only the condition of black-headed females deteriorates during such a heatwave. Supporting the fact that Gouldian finches of different morphs use alternative reproductive strategies, we found that black-headed females initiated egg-laying a month earlier than red-headed females after experiencing a severe heatwave. We also found that this severe heatwave resulted in shorter spermatozoa in males irrespective of their morph. Despite these effects associated with heatwave intensity, the overall reproductive performance of both morphs was not affected by this factor, which was possibly due to an increased nestling provisioning rate by parents after exposure to the severe heatwave. However, offspring still bore the cost of parental exposure to the severe heatwave, as they showed a reduced condition (lower plasma antioxidant capacity and transient lower breathing rate) and higher oxidative damage (at least in fledglings with black-headed parents). These results suggest that inter-morph phenotypic variability in the Gouldian finch does not result in clear differences in reproductive performance following heatwave exposure, despite basal phenotypic differences between morphs. Whether animals using alternative reproductive strategies are, in the end, differently affected by climate changes will likely depend on the capacity of their offspring to recover from altered developmental conditions.

Effects of thinning and understory removal on the soil water-holding capacity in Pinus massoniana plantations

Forest management practices play an important role in regulating the soil water-holding capacity of plantation. However, most studies focus on soil water dynamics present during large-scale forest loss and afforestation events, while little is known about how soil water under different forest management practices responds to rainfall events and which factors mainly regulate soil water-holding capacity. In this study, a stable hydrogen isotope was used to explore the contribution of three natural rainfall events (8.9, 13.3 and 67.7 mm) to soil water (CRSW) in a Pinus massoniana plantation under four forest management practices (no thinning (NTN), understory removal (USR), light-intensity thinning (LIT) and heavy-intensity thinning (HIT)) in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of the Yangtze River Basin in China. Furthermore, a structural equation model was employed to determine the effects of vegetation biomass and soil properties on the CRSW. The results showed that plantation soil under different forest management practices exhibited different water-holding capacities. Following light (8.9 mm) and moderate (13.3 mm) rainfall events, the CRSW in the HIT stand was slightly higher than that in the other stands. Following heavy (66.7 mm) rainfall event, the CRSW of most layers in USR stand was not different from the other three stands, while the CRSW in the LIT and NTN stands was significantly higher than that in the HIT stand in the 0–100 cm soil layers, suggesting that soil in the LIT and NTN stands had a greater water-holding capacity than that in the HIT stand. In addition, soil properties were the main factors directly affecting the CRSW, explaining 60% and 37% of the variation in the CRSW on the first and seventh days after heavy rainfall, respectively. Overall, compared to the HIT stand, the LIT and NTN stands showed greater capacity in retaining rainwater. Therefore, under expected global changes with frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events, methods involving light-intensity and no thinning should be employed to build up soil and water conservation functions, which will be critical for keeping water-holding capacity and moderating floods.

A unifying model to estimate thermal tolerance limits in ectotherms across static, dynamic and fluctuating exposures to thermal stress

Temperature tolerance is critical for defining the fundamental niche of ectotherms and researchers classically use either static (exposure to a constant temperature) or dynamic (ramping temperature) assays to assess tolerance. The use of different methods complicates comparison between studies and here we present a mathematical model (and R-scripts) to reconcile thermal tolerance measures obtained from static and dynamic assays. Our model uses input data from several static or dynamic experiments and is based on the well-supported assumption that thermal injury accumulation rate increases exponentially with temperature (known as a thermal death time curve). The model also assumes thermal stress at different temperatures to be additive and using experiments with Drosophila melanogaster, we validate these central assumptions by demonstrating that heat injury attained at different heat stress intensities and durations is additive. In a separate experiment we demonstrate that our model can accurately describe injury accumulation during fluctuating temperature stress and further we validate the model by successfully converting literature data of ectotherm heat tolerance (both static and dynamic assays) to a single, comparable metric (the temperature tolerated for 1 h). The model presented here has many promising applications for the analysis of ectotherm thermal tolerance and we also discuss potential pitfalls that should be considered and avoided using this model.

Soil Respiration Variation among Four Tree Species at Young Afforested Sites under the Influence of Frequent Typhoon Occurrences

Afforestation is an effective solution for restoring forest ecosystems and mitigating climate change in the tropics. In this study, we analyzed the soil respiration (Rs) at four afforested sites with different tree species exposed to a monsoon climate with frequent typhoon occurrences in southern Taiwan. The aim of this study is to examine (1) the distinct seasonal variation that strongly affects the Rs among four tree species at afforested sites, (2) the patterns of Rs that differ among the four species at the afforested sites, and (3) the influence of typhoons on forest structure and consequently the degree of Rs. The annual mean Rs among the four tree species at the afforested sites in the pretyphoon disturbance year was approximately 7.65 t C ha−1, with the post-typhoon year having an annual mean Rs of approximately 9.13 t C ha−1. Our results clearly show Rs variations in the four tree species at the young afforested sites under the influence of typhoon disturbances. The high seasonal variations in Rs were controlled by soil temperature and soil moisture. The different tree species also led to variations in litterfall production and consequently influenced Rs variation. Forest structures, such as aboveground biomass and consequently the degree of Rs, were disturbed by severe typhoon impacts in 2016, resulting in high aboveground biomass with tree height losses and litterfall accumulation. Furthermore, Rs increased immediately after litterfall input to the soil, and the addition effect of litter and the soil C release occurred throughout the year after typhoon disturbances. Our results contribute to understanding impact of typhoon disturbances on the degree of Rs at tropical afforested sites.

Unique Genomic and Phenotypic Responses to Extreme and Variable pH Conditions in Purple Urchin Larvae

Environmental variation experienced by a species across space and time can promote the maintenance of genetic diversity that may be adaptive in future global change conditions. Selection experiments have shown that purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, populations have adaptive genetic variation for surviving pH conditions at the "edge" (pH 7.5) of conditions experienced in nature. However, little is known about whether populations have genetic variation for surviving low-pH events beyond those currently experienced in nature or how variation in pH conditions affects organismal and genetic responses. Here, we quantified survival, growth, and allele frequency shifts in experimentally selected developing purple sea urchin larvae in static and variable conditions at three pH levels: pH 8.1 (control), pH 7.5 (edge-of-range), and pH 7.0 (extreme). Variable treatments recovered body size relative to static treatments, but resulted in higher mortality, suggesting a potential tradeoff between survival and growth under pH stress. However, within each pH level, allele frequency changes were overlapping between static and variable conditions, suggesting a shared genetic basis underlying survival to mean pH regardless of variability. In contrast, genetic responses to pH 7.5 (edge) versus pH 7.0 (extreme) conditions were distinct, indicating a unique genetic basis of survival. In addition, loci under selection were more likely to be in exonic regions than regulatory, indicating that selection targeted protein-coding variation. Loci under selection in variable pH 7.5 conditions, more similar to conditions periodically experienced in nature, performed functions related to lipid biosynthesis and metabolism, while loci under selection in static pH 7.0 conditions performed functions related to transmembrane and mitochondrial processes. While these results are promising in that purple sea urchin populations possess genetic variation for surviving extreme pH conditions not currently experienced in nature, they caution that increased acidification does not result in a linear response but elicits unique physiological stresses and survival mechanisms.

Chaos in fractional system with extreme events

Understanding extreme events attracts scientists due to substantial impacts. In this work, we study the emergence of extreme events in a fractional system derived from a Liénard-type oscillator. The effect of fractional-order derivative on the extreme events has been investigated for both commensurate and incommensurate fractional orders. Especially, such a system displays multistability and coexistence of multiple extreme events.