Flowering time of butterfly nectar food plants is more sensitive to temperature than the timing of butterfly adult flight

1. Variation among species in their phenological responses to temperature change suggests that shifts in the relative timing of key life cycle events between interacting species are likely to occur under climate warming. However, it remains difficult to predict the prevalence and magnitude of these shifts given that there have been few comparisons of phenological sensitivities to temperature across interacting species. 2. Here, we used a broad-scale approach utilizing collection records to compare the temperature sensitivity of the timing of adult flight in butterflies vs. flowering of their potential nectar food plants (days per °C) across space and time in British Columbia, Canada. 3. On average, the phenology of both butterflies and plants advanced in response to warmer temperatures. However, the two taxa were differentially sensitive to temperature across space vs. across time, indicating the additional importance of nontemperature cues and/or local adaptation for many species. 4. Across butterfly-plant associations, flowering time was significantly more sensitive to temperature than the timing of butterfly flight and these sensitivities were not correlated. 5. Our results indicate that warming-driven shifts in the relative timing of life cycle events between butterflies and plants are likely to be prevalent, but that predicting the magnitude and direction of such changes in particular cases is going to require detailed, fine-scale data.

Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees

Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees.

The Response of the Alpine Dwarf Shrub Salix herbacea to Altered Snowmelt Timing: Lessons from a Multi-Site Transplant Experiment

Climate change is altering spring snowmelt patterns in alpine and arctic ecosystems, and these changes may alter plant phenology, growth and reproduction. To predict how alpine plants respond to shifts in snowmelt timing, we need to understand trait plasticity, its effects on growth and reproduction, and the degree to which plants experience a home-site advantage. We tested how the common, long-lived dwarf shrub Salix herbacea responded to changing spring snowmelt time by reciprocally transplanting turfs of S. herbacea between early-exposure ridge and late-exposure snowbed microhabitats. After the transplant, we monitored phenological, morphological and fitness traits, as well as leaf damage, during two growing seasons. Salix herbacea leafed out earlier, but had a longer development time and produced smaller leaves on ridges relative to snowbeds. Longer phenological development times and smaller leaves were associated with reduced sexual reproduction on ridges. On snowbeds, larger leaves and intermediate development times were associated with increased clonal reproduction. Clonal and sexual reproduction showed no response to altered snowmelt time. We found no home-site advantage in terms of sexual and clonal reproduction. Leaf damage probability depended on snowmelt and thus exposure period, but had no short-term effect on fitness traits. We conclude that the studied populations of S. herbacea can respond to shifts in snowmelt by plastic changes in phenology and leaf size, while maintaining levels of clonal and sexual reproduction. The lack of a home-site advantage suggests that S. herbacea may not be adapted to different microhabitats. The studied populations are thus unlikely to react to climate change by rapid adaptation, but their responses will also not be constrained by small-scale local adaptation. In the short term, snowbed plants may persist due to high stem densities. However, in the long term, reduction in leaf size and flowering, a longer phenological development time and increased exposure to damage may decrease overall performance of S. herbacea under earlier snowmelt.

Plant community responses to simultaneous changes in temperature, nitrogen availability, and invasion

BACKGROUND

Increasing rates of change in climate have been observed across the planet and have contributed to the ongoing range shifts observed for many species. Although ecologists are now using a variety of approaches to study how much and through what mechanisms increasing temperature and nutrient pollution may influence the invasions inherent in range shifts, accurate predictions are still lacking.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, we conducted a factorial experiment, simultaneously manipulating warming, nitrogen addition and introduction of Pityopsis aspera, to determine how range-shifting species affect a plant community. We quantified the resident community using ordination scores, then used structural equation modeling to examine hypotheses related to how plants respond to a network of experimental treatments and environmental variables. Variation in soil pH explained plant community response to nitrogen addition in the absence of invasion. However, in the presence of invasion, the direct effect of nitrogen on the community was negligible and soil moisture was important for explaining nitrogen effects. We did not find effects of warming on the native plant community in the absence of invasion. In the presence of invasion, however, warming had negative effects on functional richness directly and invasion and herbivory explained the overall positive effect of warming on the plant community.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

This work highlights the variation in the biotic and abiotic factors responsible for explaining independent and collective climate change effects over a short time scale. Future work should consider the complex and non-additive relationships among factors of climate change and invasion in order to capture more ecologically relevant features of our changing environment.

Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae)

Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2-3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.

Warmer winters reduce frog fecundity and shift breeding phenology, which consequently alters larval development and metamorphic timing

One widely documented phenological response to climate change is the earlier occurrence of spring-breeding events. While such climate change-driven shifts in phenology are common, their consequences for individuals and populations have rarely been investigated. I addressed this gap in our knowledge by using a multi-year observational study of six wood frog (Rana sylvatica) populations near the southern edge of their range. I tested first if winter temperature or precipitation affected the date of breeding and female fecundity, and second if timing of breeding affected subsequent larval development rate, mass at metamorphosis, date of metamorphosis, and survival. Warmer winters were associated with earlier breeding but reduced female fecundity. Winter precipitation did not affect breeding date, but was positively associated with female fecundity. There was no association between earlier breeding and larval survival or mass at metamorphosis, but earlier breeding was associated with delayed larval development. The delay in larval development was explained through a counterintuitive correlation between breeding date and temperature during larval development. Warmer winters led to earlier breeding, which in turn was associated with cooler post-breeding temperatures that slowed larval development. The delay in larval development did not fully compensate for the earlier breeding, such that for every 2 days earlier that breeding took place, the average date of metamorphosis was 1 day earlier. Other studies have found that earlier metamorphosis is associated with increased postmetamorphic growth and survival, suggesting that earlier breeding has beneficial effects on wood frog populations.

Effects of temperature on consumer-resource interactions

Understanding how temperature variation influences the negative (e.g. self-limitation) and positive (e.g. saturating functional responses) feedback processes that characterize consumer-resource interactions is an important research priority. Previous work on this topic has yielded conflicting outcomes with some studies predicting that warming should increase consumer-resource oscillations and others predicting that warming should decrease consumer-resource oscillations. Here, I develop a consumer-resource model that both synthesizes previous findings in a common framework and yields novel insights about temperature effects on consumer-resource dynamics. I report three key findings. First, when the resource species' birth rate exhibits a unimodal temperature response, as demonstrated by a large number of empirical studies, the temperature range over which the consumer-resource interaction can persist is determined by the lower and upper temperature limits to the resource species' reproduction. This contrasts with the predictions of previous studies, which assume that the birth rate exhibits a monotonic temperature response, that consumer extinction is determined by temperature effects on consumer species' traits, rather than the resource species' traits. Secondly, the comparative analysis I have conducted shows that whether warming leads to an increase or decrease in consumer-resource oscillations depends on the manner in which temperature affects intraspecific competition. When the strength of self-limitation increases monotonically with temperature, warming causes a decrease in consumer-resource oscillations. However, if self-limitation is strongest at temperatures physiologically optimal for reproduction, a scenario previously unanalysed by theory but amply substantiated by empirical data, warming can cause an increase in consumer-resource oscillations. Thirdly, the model yields testable comparative predictions about consumer-resource dynamics under alternative hypotheses for how temperature affects competitive and resource acquisition traits. Importantly, it does so through empirically quantifiable metrics for predicting temperature effects on consumer viability and consumer-resource oscillations, which obviates the need for parameterizing complex dynamical models. Tests of these metrics with empirical data on a host-parasitoid interaction yield realistic estimates of temperature limits for consumer persistence and the propensity for consumer-resource oscillations, highlighting their utility in predicting temperature effects, particularly warming, on consumer-resource interactions in both natural and agricultural settings.

Patterns of late spring frost leaf damage and recovery in a European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stand in south-eastern Germany based on repeated digital photographs

Damage by late spring frost is a risk deciduous trees have to cope with in order to optimize the length of their growing season. The timing of spring phenological development plays a crucial role, not only at the species level, but also at the population and individual level, since fresh new leaves are especially vulnerable. For the pronounced late spring frost in May 2011 in Germany, we studied the individual leaf development of 35 deciduous trees (mainly European beech Fagus sylvatica L.) at a mountainous forest site in the Bayerischer Wald National Park using repeated digital photographs. Analyses of the time series of greenness by a novel Bayesian multiple change point approach mostly revealed five change points which almost perfectly matched the expected break points in leaf development: (i) start of the first greening between day of the year (DOY) 108-119 (mean 113), (ii) end of greening, and (iii) visible frost damage after the frost on the night of May 3rd/4th (DOY 123/124), (iv) re-sprouting 19-38 days after the frost, and (v) full maturity around DOY 178 (166-184) when all beech crowns had fully recovered. Since frost damage was nearly 100%, individual susceptibility did not depend on the timing of first spring leaf unfolding. However, we could identify significant patterns in fitness linked to an earlier start of leaf unfolding. Those individuals that had an earlier start of greening during the first flushing period had a shorter period of recovery and started the second greening earlier. Thus, phenological timing triggered the speed of recovery from such an extreme event. The maximum greenness achieved, however, did not vary with leaf unfolding dates. Two mountain ashes (Sorbus aucuparia L.) were not affected by the low temperatures of -5°C. Time series analysis of webcam pictures can thus improve process-based knowledge and provide valuable insights into the link between phenological variation, late spring frost damage, and recovery within one stand.

Fruitful factors: what limits seed production of flowering plants in the alpine?

Predicting demographic consequences of climate change for plant communities requires understanding which factors influence seed set, and how climate change may alter those factors. To determine the effects of pollen availability, temperature, and pollinators on seed production in the alpine, we combined pollen-manipulation experiments with measurements of variation in temperature, and abundance and diversity of potential pollinators along a 400-m elevation gradient. We did this for seven dominant species of flowering plants in the Coast Range Mountains, British Columbia, Canada. The number of viable seeds set by plants was influenced by pollen limitation (quantity of pollen received), mate limitation (quality of pollen), temperature, abundance of potential pollinators, seed predation, and combinations of these factors. Early flowering species (n = 3) had higher seed set at high elevation and late-flowering species (n = 4) had higher seed set at low elevation. Degree-days >15 °C were good predictors of seed set, particularly in bee-pollinated species, but had inconsistent effects among species. Seed production in one species, Arnica latifolia, was negatively affected by seed-predators (Tephritidae) at mid elevation, where there were fewer frost-hours during the flowering season. Anemone occidentalis, a fly-pollinated, self-compatible species had high seed set at all elevations, likely due to abundant potential pollinators. Simultaneously measuring multiple factors affecting reproductive success of flowering plants helped identify which factors were most important, providing focus for future studies. Our work suggests that responses of plant communities to climate change may be mediated by flowering time, pollination syndrome, and susceptibility to seed predators.

Warmer Shorter Winters Disrupt Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems

The Earth is warming, especially in polar areas in which winter temperatures and precipitation are expected to increase. Despite a growing research focus on winter climatic change, the impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Snow acts as an insulator, and depth changes affect the enhancement of thermally dependent reactions, such as microbial activity, affecting soil nutrient composition, respiration, and winter gas efflux. Snow depth and spring temperatures influence snowmelt timing, determining the start of plant growth and forage availability. Delays in winter onset affect tundra carbon balance, faunal hibernation, and migration but are unlikely to lengthen the plant growing season. Mild periods in winter followed by a return to freezing have negative consequences for plants and invertebrates, and the resultant ice layers act as barriers to foraging, triggering starvation of herbivores and their predators. In summary, knock-on effects between seasons and trophic levels have important consequences for biological activity, diversity, and ecosystem function.

The community-level effect of light on germination timing in relation to seed mass: a source of regeneration niche differentiation

Within a community, species may germinate at different times so as to mitigate competition and to take advantage of different aspects of the seasonal environment (temporal niche differentiation). We illustrated a hypothesis of the combined effects of abiotic and biotic competitive factors on germination timing and the subsequent upscale effects on community assembly. We estimated the germination timing (GT) for 476 angiosperm species of the eastern Tibetan Plateau grasslands under two light treatments in the field: high (i.e. natural) light and low light. We also measured the shift in germination timing (SGT) across treatments for all species. Furthermore, we used phylogenetic comparative methods to test if GT and SGT were associated with seed mass, an important factor in competitive interactions. We found a significant positive correlation between GT and seed mass in both light treatments. Additionally, small seeds (early germinating seeds) tended to germinate later and large seeds (late germinating seeds) tended to germinate earlier under low light vs high light conditions. Low light availability can reduce temporal niche differentiation by increasing the overlap in germination time between small and large seeds. In turn, reduced temporal niche differentiation may increase competition in the process of community assembly.

Increasing frost risk associated with advanced citrus flowering dates in Kerman and Shiraz, Iran: 1960-2010

Flowering dates and the timing of late season frost are both driven by local ambient temperatures. However, under climatic warming observed over the past century, it remains uncertain how such impacts affect frost risk associated with plant phenophase shifts. Any increase in frost frequency or severity has the potential to damage flowers and their resultant yields and, in more extreme cases, the survival of the plant. An accurate assessment of the relationship between the timing of last frost events and phenological shifts associated with warmer climate is thus imperative. We investigate spring advances in citrus flowering dates (orange, tangerine, sweet lemon, sour lemon and sour orange) for Kerman and Shiraz, Iran from 1960 to 2010. These cities have experienced increases in both T max and T min, advances in peak flowering dates and changes in last frost dates over the study period. Based on daily instrumental climate records, the last frost dates for each year are compared with the peak flowering dates. For both cities, the rate of last frost advance lags behind the phenological advance, thus increasing frost risk. Increased frost risk will likely have considerable direct impacts on crop yields and on the associated capacity to adapt, given future climatic uncertainty.

Effects of warming on chlorophyll degradation and carbohydrate accumulation of Alpine herbaceous species during plant senescence on the Tibetan Plateau

Plant senescence is a critical life history process accompanied by chlorophyll degradation and has large implications for nutrient resorption and carbohydrate storage. Although photoperiod governs much of seasonal leaf senescence in many plant species, temperature has also been shown to modulate this process. Therefore, we hypothesized that climate warming would significantly impact the length of the plant growing season and ultimate productivity. To test this assumption, we measured the effects of simulated autumn climate warming paradigms on four native herbaceous species that represent distinct life forms of alpine meadow plants on the Tibetan Plateau. Conditions were simulated in open-top chambers (OTCs) and the effects on the degradation of chlorophyll, nitrogen (N) concentration in leaves and culms, total non-structural carbohydrate (TNC) in roots, growth and phenology were assessed during one year following treatment. The results showed that climate warming in autumn changed the senescence process only for perennials by slowing chlorophyll degradation at the beginning of senescence and accelerating it in the following phases. Warming also increased root TNC storage as a result of higher N concentrations retained in leaves; however, this effect was species dependent and did not alter the growing and flowering phenology in the following seasons. Our results indicated that autumn warming increases carbohydrate accumulation, not only by enhancing activities of photosynthetic enzymes (a mechanism proposed in previous studies), but also by affecting chlorophyll degradation and preferential allocation of resources to different plant compartments. The different responses to warming can be explained by inherently different growth and phenology patterns observed among the studied species. The results implied that warming leads to changes in the competitive balance among life forms, an effect that can subsequently shift vegetation distribution and species composition in communities.

Responses of high-altitude graminoids and soil fungi to 20 years of experimental warming

High-elevation ecosystems are expected to be particularly sensitive to climate warming because cold temperatures constrain biological processes. Deeper understanding of the consequences of climate change will come from studies that consider not only the direct effects of temperature on individual species, but also the indirect effects of altered species interactions. Here we show that 20 years of experimental warming has changed the species composition of graminoid (grass and sedge) assemblages in a subalpine meadow of the Rocky Mountains, USA, by increasing the frequency of sedges and reducing the frequency of grasses. Because sedges typically have weak interactions with mycorrhizal fungi relative to grasses, lowered abundances of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi or other root-inhabiting fungi could underlie warming-induced shifts in plant species composition. However, warming increased root colonization by AM fungi for two grass species, possibly because AM fungi can enhance plant water uptake when soils are dried by experimental warming. Warming had no effect on AM fungal colonization of three other graminoids. Increased AM fungal colonization of the dominant shrub Artemisia tridentata provided further grounds for rejecting the hypothesis that reduced AM fungi caused the shift from grasses to sedges. Non-AM fungi (including dark septate endophytes) also showed general increases with warming. Our results demonstrate that lumping grasses and sedges when characterizing plant community responses can mask significant shifts in the responses of primary producers, and their symbiotic fungi, to climate change.

Early spring, severe frost events, and drought induce rapid carbon loss in high elevation meadows

By the end of the 20^th century, the onset of spring in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California has been occurring on average three weeks earlier than historic records. Superimposed on this trend is an increase in the presence of highly anomalous “extreme” years, where spring arrives either significantly late or early. The timing of the onset of continuous snowpack coupled to the date at which the snowmelt season is initiated play an important role in the development and sustainability of mountain ecosystems. In this study, we assess the impact of extreme winter precipitation variation on aboveground net primary productivity and soil respiration over three years (2011 to 2013). We found that the duration of snow cover, particularly the timing of the onset of a continuous snowpack and presence of early spring frost events contributed to a dramatic change in ecosystem processes. We found an average 100% increase in soil respiration in 2012 and 2103, compared to 2011, and an average 39% decline in aboveground net primary productivity observed over the same time period. The overall growing season length increased by 57 days in 2012 and 61 days in 2013. These results demonstrate the dependency of these keystone ecosystems on a stable climate and indicate that even small changes in climate can potentially alter their resiliency.

Pollen-ovule relation in Adesmia tristis and reflections on the seed–ovule ratio by interaction with pollinators in two vertical strata

The vertical distribution of pollinators is an important component in the foraging pattern of plants strata, and it influences the reproductive system (pollen/ovule ratio) and seed/ovule ratio. Niches in two different strata from Adesmia tristis Vogel were evaluated in these aspects. This plant is an endemic shrub from the Campos de Cima da Serra in Southern Brazil. The studies were carried out from January 2010, to January 2011, at Pró-Mata/PUCRS (Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul) (29°27′-29°35′S and 50°08′-50°15′W), São Francisco de Paula, sate of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Breeding system of A. tristis is mandatory allogamy. The vertical profile in A. tristis has differentiated foraging niches among the most common pollinators. Bees of Megachile genus forage in the upper stratum, and representative bees of the Andrenidae family explore the lower stratum. The upper stratum of the vertical profile had more contribution to seed production. Adesmia tristis showed evidence of pollination deficit.

The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.

Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate

Responses by flowering plants to climate change are complex and only beginning to be understood. Through analyses of 10,295 herbarium specimens of Himalayan Rhododendron collected by plant hunters and botanists since 1884, we were able to separate these responses into significant components. We found a lack of directional change in mean flowering time over the past 45 y of rapid warming. However, over the full 125 y of collections, mean flowering time shows a significant response to year-to-year changes in temperature, and this response varies with season of warming. Mean flowering advances with annual warming (2.27 d earlier per 1 °C warming), and also is delayed with fall warming (2.54 d later per 1 °C warming). Annual warming may advance flowering through positive effects on overwintering bud formation, whereas fall warming may delay flowering through an impact on chilling requirements. The lack of a directional response suggests that contrasting phenological responses to temperature changes may obscure temperature sensitivity in plants. By drawing on large collections from multiple herbaria, made over more than a century, we show how these data may inform studies even of remote localities, and we highlight the increasing value of these and other natural history collections in understanding long-term change.

Plastic responses to elevated temperature in low and high elevation populations of three grassland species

Local persistence of plant species in the face of climate change is largely mediated by genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity. In species with a wide altitudinal range, population responses to global warming are likely to differ at contrasting elevations. In controlled climate chambers, we investigated the responses of low and high elevation populations (1200 and 1800 m a.s.l.) of three nutrient-poor grassland species, Trifolium montanum, Ranunculus bulbosus, and Briza media, to ambient and elevated temperature. We measured growth-related, reproductive and phenological traits, evaluated differences in trait plasticity and examined whether trait values or plasticities were positively related to approximate fitness and thus under selection. Elevated temperature induced plastic responses in several growth-related traits of all three species. Although flowering phenology was advanced in T. montanum and R. bulbosus, number of flowers and reproductive allocation were not increased under elevated temperature. Plasticity differed between low and high elevation populations only in leaf traits of T. montanum and B. media. Some growth-related and phenological traits were under selection. Moreover, plasticities were not correlated with approximate fitness indicating selectively neutral plastic responses to elevated temperature. The observed plasticity in growth-related and phenological traits, albeit variable among species, suggests that plasticity is an important mechanism in mediating plant responses to elevated temperature. However, the capacity of species to respond to climate change through phenotypic plasticity is limited suggesting that the species additionally need evolutionary adaptation to adjust to climate change. The observed selection on several growth-related and phenological traits indicates that the study species have the potential for future evolution in the context of a warming climate.

Reduced winter snowfall damages the structure and function of wintergreen ferns

• Premise of the study: The full impact of climate change on ecosystems and the humans that depend on them is uncertain. Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in winters with less snow than is historically typical. This deficit may have an impact on wintergreen ferns whose fronds lie prostrate under the snowpack and are thereby protected from frost.• Methods: Frost damage and ecophysiological traits were quantified for three species of wintergreen fern (Dryopteris intermedia, Dryopteris marginalis, and Polystichum acrostichoides) near Delhi, NY following the winters of 2012 (which had very little snowfall) and 2013 (which had typical snowfall).• Key results: Dryopteris intermedia was the most common species and had the highest percentage of frost-damaged fronds and the highest percentage of its cover damaged in 2012. Frost damage was significantly less in 2013 for all species. Polystichum acrostichoides had the highest vernal photosynthetic rate in undamaged fronds, and all three species had a negative net photosynthetic rate in frost-damaged fronds. The wintergreen fern community lost 36.69 ± 2.80% of its productive surface area to frost damage in 2012. Dryopteris intermedia had the thinnest leaves and this trait may have made it the most susceptible to frost damage.• Conclusions: These results demonstrate that repeated winters of little snow may have a significant impact on the structure and functioning of the wintergreen fern community, and species will respond to a reduced snowpack on an individual basis.

Phenology research for natural resource management in the United States

Natural resource professionals in the United States recognize that climate-induced changes in phenology can substantially affect resource management. This is reflected in national climate change response plans recently released by major resource agencies. However, managers on-the-ground are often unclear about how to use phenological information to inform their management practices. Until recently, this was at least partially due to the lack of broad-based, standardized phenology data collection across taxa and geographic regions. Such efforts are now underway, albeit in very early stages. Nonetheless, a major hurdle still exists: phenology-linked climate change research has focused more on describing broad ecological changes rather than making direct connections to local to regional management concerns. To help researchers better design relevant research for use in conservation and management decision-making processes, we describe phenology-related research topics that facilitate "actionable" science. Examples include research on evolution and phenotypic plasticity related to vulnerability, the demographic consequences of trophic mismatch, the role of invasive species, and building robust ecological forecast models. Such efforts will increase phenology literacy among on-the-ground resource managers and provide information relevant for short- and long-term decision-making, particularly as related to climate response planning and implementing climate-informed monitoring in the context of adaptive management. In sum, we argue that phenological information is a crucial component of the resource management toolbox that facilitates identification and evaluation of strategies that will reduce the vulnerability of natural systems to climate change. Management-savvy researchers can play an important role in reaching this goal.

Within-season flowering interruptions are common in the water-limited Sky Islands

Within-season breaks in flowering have been reported in a wide range of highly variable ecosystems including deserts, tropical forests and high-elevation meadows. A tendency for interruptions in flowering has also been documented in southwestern US "Sky Island" plant communities, which encompass xeric to mesic conditions. Seasonal breaks in flowering have implications for plant reproductive success, population structure, and gene flow as well as resource availability for pollinators and dependent animals. Most reports of multiple within-season flowering events describe only two distinct flowering episodes. In this study, we set out to better quantify distinct within-season flowering events in highly variable Sky Islands plant communities. Across a >1,200 m elevation gradient, we documented a strong tendency for multiple within-season flowering events. In both distinct spring and summer seasons, we observed greater than two distinct within-season flowering in more than 10 % of instances. Patterns were clearly mediated by the different climate factors at work in the two seasons. The spring season, which is influenced by both temperature and precipitation, showed a mixed response, with the greatest tendency for multiple flowering events occurring at mid-elevations and functional types varying in their responses across the gradient. In the summer season, during which flowering across the gradient is limited by localized precipitation, annual plants exhibited the fewest within-season flowering events and herbaceous perennial plants showed the greatest. Additionally, more distinct events occurred at lower elevations. The patterns documented here provide a baseline for comparison of system responses to changing climate conditions.

Standardized phenology monitoring methods to track plant and animal activity for science and resource management applications

Phenology offers critical insights into the responses of species to climate change; shifts in species' phenologies can result in disruptions to the ecosystem processes and services upon which human livelihood depends. To better detect such shifts, scientists need long-term phenological records covering many taxa and across a broad geographic distribution. To date, phenological observation efforts across the USA have been geographically limited and have used different methods, making comparisons across sites and species difficult. To facilitate coordinated cross-site, cross-species, and geographically extensive phenological monitoring across the nation, the USA National Phenology Network has developed in situ monitoring protocols standardized across taxonomic groups and ecosystem types for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine plant and animal taxa. The protocols include elements that allow enhanced detection and description of phenological responses, including assessment of phenological "status", or the ability to track presence-absence of a particular phenophase, as well as standards for documenting the degree to which phenological activity is expressed in terms of intensity or abundance. Data collected by this method can be integrated with historical phenology data sets, enabling the development of databases for spatial and temporal assessment of changes in status and trends of disparate organisms. To build a common, spatially, and temporally extensive multi-taxa phenological data set available for a variety of research and science applications, we encourage scientists, resources managers, and others conducting ecological monitoring or research to consider utilization of these standardized protocols for tracking the seasonal activity of plants and animals.

Simulating changes in the leaf unfolding time of 20 plant species in China over the twenty-first century

Recent shifts in phenology reflect the biological response to current climate change. Aiming to enhance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated and validated spatio-temporal models of first leaf date (FLD) for 20 broadleaved deciduous plants in China. Using daily meteorological data from the Chinese Meteorological Administration and the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) created using three IPCC scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), we described the FLD time series of each species over the past 50 years, extrapolating from these results to simulate estimated FLD changes for each species during the twenty-first century. Model validation suggests that our spatio-temporal models can simulate FLD accurately with R² (explained variance) >0.60. Model simulations show that, from 1952 to 2007, the FLD in China advanced at a rate of -1.14 days decade⁻¹) on average. Furthermore, changes in FLD showed noticeable variation between regions, with clearer advances observed in the north than in the south of the country. The model indicates that the advances in FLD observed from 1952-2007 in China will continue over the twenty-first century, although significant differences among species and different climate scenarios are expected. The average trend of FLD advance in China during the twenty-first century is modeled as being -1.92 days decade⁻¹ under the A2 scenario, -1.10 days decade⁻¹ under the A1B scenario and -0.74 days decade⁻¹ under the B2 scenario. The spatial pattern of FLD change for the period 2011-2099 is modeled as being similar but showing some difference from patterns in the 1952-2007 period. At the interspecific level, early-leafing species were found to show a greater advance in FLD, while species with larger distributions tended to show a weaker advance in FLD. These simulated changes in phenology may have significant implications for plant distribution as well as ecosystem structure and function.

A phylogenetic comparative study of flowering phenology along an elevational gradient in the Canadian subarctic

Climate change is affecting high-altitude and high-latitude communities in significant ways. In the short growing season of subarctic habitats, it is essential that the timing and duration of phenological phases match favorable environmental conditions. We explored the time of the first appearance of flowers (first flowering day, FFD) and flowering duration across subarctic species composing different communities, from boreal forest to tundra, along an elevational gradient (600-800 m). The study was conducted on Mount Irony (856 m), North-East Canada (54°90'N, 67°16'W) during summer 2012. First, we quantified phylogenetic signal in FFD at different spatial scales. Second, we used phylogenetic comparative methods to explore the relationship between FFD, flowering duration, and elevation. We found that the phylogenetic signal for FFD was stronger at finer spatial scales and at lower elevations, indicating that closely related species tend to flower at similar times when the local environment is less harsh. The comparatively weaker phylogenetic signal at higher elevation may be indicative of convergent evolution for FFD. Flowering duration was correlated significantly with mean FFD, with later-flowering species having a longer flowering duration, but only at the lowest elevation. Our results indicate significant evolutionary conservatism in responses to phenological cues, but high phenotypic plasticity in flowering times. We suggest that phylogenetic relationships should be considered in the search for predictions and drivers of flowering time in comparative analyses, because species cannot be considered as statistically independent. Further, phenological drivers should be measured at spatial scales such that variation in flowering matches variation in environment.

Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change

Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter.

Ant-mediated seed dispersal in a warmed world

Climate change affects communities both directly and indirectly via changes in interspecific interactions. One such interaction that may be altered under climate change is the ant-plant seed dispersal mutualism common in deciduous forests of eastern North America. As climatic warming alters the abundance and activity levels of ants, the potential exists for shifts in rates of ant-mediated seed dispersal. We used an experimental temperature manipulation at two sites in the eastern US (Harvard Forest in Massachusetts and Duke Forest in North Carolina) to examine the potential impacts of climatic warming on overall rates of seed dispersal (using Asarum canadense seeds) as well as species-specific rates of seed dispersal at the Duke Forest site. We also examined the relationship between ant critical thermal maxima (CT_max) and the mean seed removal temperature for each ant species. We found that seed removal rates did not change as a result of experimental warming at either study site, nor were there any changes in species-specific rates of seed dispersal. There was, however, a positive relationship between CT_max and mean seed removal temperature, whereby species with higher CT_max removed more seeds at hotter temperatures. The temperature at which seeds were removed was influenced by experimental warming as well as diurnal and day-to-day fluctuations in temperature. Taken together, our results suggest that while temperature may play a role in regulating seed removal by ants, ant plant seed-dispersal mutualisms may be more robust to climate change than currently assumed.

Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change

In recent years, research in invasion biology has focused increasing attention on understanding the role of phenology in shaping plant invasions. Multiple studies have found non-native species that tend to flower distinctly early or late in the growing season, advance more with warming or have shifted earlier with climate change compared with native species. This growing body of literature has focused on patterns of phenological differences, but there is a need now for mechanistic studies of how phenology contributes to invasions. To do this, however, requires understanding how phenology fits within complex functional trait relationships. Towards this goal, we review recent literature linking phenology with other functional traits, and discuss the role of phenology in mediating how plants experience disturbance and stress-via climate, herbivory and competition-across the growing season. Because climate change may alter the timing and severity of stress and disturbance in many systems, it could provide novel opportunities for invasion-depending upon the dominant climate controller of the system, the projected climate change, and the traits of native and non-native species. Based on our current understanding of plant phenological and growth strategies-especially rapid growing, early-flowering species versus later-flowering species that make slower-return investments in growth-we project optimal periods for invasions across three distinct systems under current climate change scenarios. Research on plant invasions and phenology within this predictive framework would provide a more rigorous test of what drives invader success, while at the same time testing basic plant ecological theory. Additionally, extensions could provide the basis to model how ecosystem processes may shift in the future with continued climate change.

Links between plant species' spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species' responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species's climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.

Shifts in flowering phenology reshape a subalpine plant community

Phenology--the timing of biological events--is highly sensitive to climate change. However, our general understanding of how phenology responds to climate change is based almost solely on incomplete assessments of phenology (such as first date of flowering) rather than on entire phenological distributions. Using a uniquely comprehensive 39-y flowering phenology dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains that contains more than 2 million flower counts, we reveal a diversity of species-level phenological shifts that bring into question the accuracy of previous estimates of long-term phenological change. For 60 species, we show that first, peak, and last flowering rarely shift uniformly and instead usually shift independently of one another, resulting in a diversity of phenological changes through time. Shifts in the timing of first flowering on average overestimate the magnitude of shifts in the timing of peak flowering, fail to predict shifts in the timing of last flowering, and underrepresent the number of species changing phenology in this plant community. Ultimately, this diversity of species-level phenological shifts contributes to altered coflowering patterns within the community, a redistribution of floral abundance across the season, and an expansion of the flowering season by more than I mo during the course of our study period. These results demonstrate the substantial reshaping of ecological communities that can be attributed to shifts in phenology.

Linking phenological shifts to species interactions through size-mediated priority effects

Interannual variation in seasonal weather patterns causes shifts in the relative timing of phenological events of species within communities, but we currently lack a mechanistic understanding of how these phenological shifts affect species interactions. Identifying these mechanisms is critical to predicting how interannual variation affects populations and communities. Species' phenologies, particularly the timing of offspring arrival, play an important role in the annual cycles of community assembly. We hypothesize that shifts in relative arrival of offspring can alter interspecific interactions through a mechanism called size-mediated priority effects (SMPE), in which individuals that arrive earlier can grow to achieve a body size advantage over those that arrive later. In this study, we used an experimental approach to isolate and quantify the importance of SMPE for species interactions. Specifically, we simulated shifts in relative arrival of the nymphs of two dragonfly species to determine the consequences for their interactions as intraguild predators. We found that shifts in relative arrival altered not only predation strength but also the nature of predator-prey interactions. When arrival differences were great, SMPE allowed the early arriver to prey intensely upon the late arriver, causing exclusion of the late arriver from nearly all habitats. As arrival differences decreased, the early arriver's size advantage also decreased. When arrival differences were smallest, there was mutual predation, and the two species coexisted in similar abundances across habitats. Importantly, we also found a nonlinear scaling relationship between shifts in relative arrival and predation strength. Specifically, small shifts in relative arrival caused large changes in predation strength while subsequent changes had relatively minor effects. These results demonstrate that SMPE can alter not only the outcome of interactions but also the demographic rates of species and the structure of communities. Elucidating the mechanisms that link phenological shifts to species interactions is crucial for understanding the dynamics of seasonal communities as well as for predicting the effects of climate change on these communities.

Progress towards an interdisciplinary science of plant phenology: building predictions across space, time and species diversity

Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.

Deciphering the adjustment between environment and life history in annuals: lessons from a geographically-explicit approach in Arabidopsis thaliana

The role that different life-history traits may have in the process of adaptation caused by divergent selection can be assessed by using extensive collections of geographically-explicit populations. This is because adaptive phenotypic variation shifts gradually across space as a result of the geographic patterns of variation in environmental selective pressures. Hence, large-scale experiments are needed to identify relevant adaptive life-history traits as well as their relationships with putative selective agents. We conducted a field experiment with 279 geo-referenced accessions of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana collected across a native region of its distribution range, the Iberian Peninsula. We quantified variation in life-history traits throughout the entire life cycle. We built a geographic information system to generate an environmental data set encompassing climate, vegetation and soil data. We analysed the spatial autocorrelation patterns of environmental variables and life-history traits, as well as the relationship between environmental and phenotypic data. Almost all environmental variables were significantly spatially autocorrelated. By contrast, only two life-history traits, seed weight and flowering time, exhibited significant spatial autocorrelation. Flowering time, and to a lower extent seed weight, were the life-history traits with the highest significant correlation coefficients with environmental factors, in particular with annual mean temperature. In general, individual fitness was higher for accessions with more vigorous seed germination, higher recruitment and later flowering times. Variation in flowering time mediated by temperature appears to be the main life-history trait by which A. thaliana adjusts its life history to the varying Iberian environmental conditions. The use of extensive geographically-explicit data sets obtained from field experiments represents a powerful approach to unravel adaptive patterns of variation. In a context of current global warming, geographically-explicit approaches, evaluating the match between organisms and the environments where they live, may contribute to better assess and predict the consequences of global warming.

Plant population differentiation and climate change: responses of grassland species along an elevational gradient

Mountain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to climate change. Characterizing intraspecific variation of alpine plants along elevational gradients is crucial for estimating their vulnerability to predicted changes. Environmental conditions vary with elevation, which might influence plastic responses and affect selection pressures that lead to local adaptation. Thus, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among low and high elevation plant populations in response to climate, soil and other factors associated with elevational gradients might underlie different responses of these populations to climate warming. Using a transplant experiment along an elevational gradient, we investigated reproductive phenology, growth and reproduction of the nutrient-poor grassland species Ranunculus bulbosus, Trifolium montanum and Briza media. Seeds were collected from low and high elevation source populations across the Swiss Alps and grown in nine common gardens at three different elevations with two different soil depths. Despite genetic differentiation in some traits, the results revealed no indication of local adaptation to the elevation of population origin. Reproductive phenology was advanced at lower elevation in low and high elevation populations of all three species. Growth and reproduction of T. montanum and B. media were hardly affected by garden elevation and soil depth. In R. bulbosus, however, growth decreased and reproductive investment increased at higher elevation. Furthermore, soil depth influenced growth and reproduction of low elevation R. bulbosus populations. We found no evidence for local adaptation to elevation of origin and hardly any differences in the responses of low and high elevation populations. However, the consistent advanced reproductive phenology observed in all three species shows that they have the potential to plastically respond to environmental variation. We conclude that populations might not be forced to migrate to higher elevations as a consequence of climate warming, as plasticity will buffer the detrimental effects of climate change in the three investigated nutrient-poor grassland species.

Increased spring freezing vulnerability for alpine shrubs under early snowmelt

Alpine dwarf shrub communities are phenologically linked with snowmelt timing, so early spring exposure may increase risk of freezing damage during early development, and consequently reduce seasonal growth. We examined whether environmental factors (duration of snow cover, elevation) influenced size and the vulnerability of shrubs to spring freezing along elevational gradients and snow microhabitats by modelling the past frequency of spring freezing events. We sampled biomass and measured the size of Salix herbacea, Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium uliginosum and Loiseleuria procumbens in late spring. Leaves were exposed to freezing temperatures to determine the temperature at which 50% of specimens are killed for each species and sampling site. By linking site snowmelt and temperatures to long-term climate measurements, we extrapolated the frequency of spring freezing events at each elevation, snow microhabitat and per species over 37 years. Snowmelt timing was significantly driven by microhabitat effects, but was independent of elevation. Shrub growth was neither enhanced nor reduced by earlier snowmelt, but decreased with elevation. Freezing resistance was strongly species dependent, and did not differ along the elevation or snowmelt gradient. Microclimate extrapolation suggested that potentially lethal freezing events (in May and June) occurred for three of the four species examined. Freezing events never occurred on late snow beds, and increased in frequency with earlier snowmelt and higher elevation. Extrapolated freezing events showed a slight, non-significant increase over the 37-year record. We suggest that earlier snowmelt does not enhance growth in four dominant alpine shrubs, but increases the risk of lethal spring freezing exposure for less freezing-resistant species.

Phenology predicts the native and invasive range limits of common ragweed

Accurate models for species' distributions are needed to forecast the progress and impacts of alien invasive species and assess potential range-shifting driven by global change. Although this has traditionally been achieved through data-driven correlative modelling, robustly extrapolating these models into novel climatic conditions is challenging. Recently, a small number of process-based or mechanistic distribution models have been developed to complement the correlative approaches. However, tests of these models are lacking, and there are very few process-based models for invasive species. We develop a method for estimating the range of a globally invasive species, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), from a temperature- and photoperiod-driven phenology model. The model predicts the region in which ragweed can reach reproductive maturity before frost kills the adult plants in autumn. This aligns well with the poleward and high-elevation range limits in its native North America and in invaded Europe, clearly showing that phenological constraints determine the cold range margins of the species. Importantly, this is a 'forward' prediction made entirely independently of the distribution data. Therefore, it allows a confident and biologically informed forecasting of further invasion and range shifting driven by climate change. For ragweed, such forecasts are extremely important as the species is a serious crop weed and its airborne pollen is a major cause of allergy and asthma in humans. Our results show that phenology can be a key determinant of species' range margins, so integrating phenology into species distribution models offers great potential for the mechanistic modelling of range dynamics.