Seed banks of native forbs, but not exotic grasses, increase during extreme drought

Species occupancy is inflated by sink populations in productive environments but not unproductive environments

For decades, community ecologists have examined how diversity varies with ecosystem productivity. Despite this long history, tests of hypothesized mechanisms, namely the interplay between environmental filtering, biotic interactions, and dispersal, are lacking, largely due to the intractability of using traditional approaches. Across a productivity gradient in a serpentine grassland (California, USA), for four annual plant species, we coupled local productivity estimates, occupancy surveys, and measures of persistence tested on transplants under natural conditions and when interactions with neighbors were experimentally reduced. We found a positive effect of productivity on diversity (i.e., the proportion of our focal species occupying a location) despite strong competition limiting species persistence in productive environments. Additionally, across species and for the community, we found a strong mismatch between species occupancy versus persistence, largely due to dispersal excess causing sink populations with negative growth rates. Our results suggest that diversity-productivity relationships can be largely driven by dispersal and its interactive effects with local biotic and abiotic conditions.

Forb diversity globally is harmed by nutrient enrichment but can be rescued by large mammalian herbivory

Forbs ("wildflowers") are important contributors to grassland biodiversity but are vulnerable to environmental changes. In a factorial experiment at 94 sites on 6 continents, we test the global generality of several broad predictions: (1) Forb cover and richness decline under nutrient enrichment, particularly nitrogen enrichment. (2) Forb cover and richness increase under herbivory by large mammals. (3) Forb richness and cover are less affected by nutrient enrichment and herbivory in more arid climates, because water limitation reduces the impacts of competition with grasses. (4) Forb families will respond differently to nutrient enrichment and mammalian herbivory due to differences in nutrient requirements. We find strong evidence for the first, partial support for the second, no support for the third, and support for the fourth prediction. Our results underscore that anthropogenic nitrogen addition is a major threat to grassland forbs, but grazing under high herbivore intensity can offset these nutrient effects.

Effects of extreme drought on the invasion dynamics of non-native plants

The increasing frequency of extreme droughts poses significant challenges for predicting the invasion success (or failure) of non-native plant species. While current frameworks are primarily based on moderate droughts, the unique characteristics of extreme droughts necessitate re-evaluating our understanding of plant invasion during and after extreme droughts. Here, using core principles of community assembly and invasion biology, we discuss how the invasibility of non-native plants during and after extreme droughts differs due to: (i) differences in the ecological response of the native community, (ii) barriers at different invasion stages, and (iii) the traits of non-native plants. We incorporate ideas from current ecological theories of invasive success and suggest how drought-mediated invasion is influenced by biotic interactions in the native community.

Shifting Precipitation Regimes Influence Optimal Germination Strategies and Population Dynamics in Bet-Hedging Desert Annuals

AbstractClimate change will affect both the mean and the variability in environmental conditions and may have major negative impacts on population densities in the future. For annual plants that already live in an extreme environment like the Sonoran Desert, keeping a fraction of their seeds dormant underground (for possibly years at a time) is critical to survive. Here, we consider how this form of bet hedging (i.e., delayed germination) for 10 Sonoran Desert annuals mediates responses to precipitation shifts. We use a demographic model parameterized with long-term field and precipitation data to explore how forecasted changes in precipitation impact annual plant species' population densities. We then examine how instantaneous evolution of optimal germination fractions in the shifted precipitation regimes bolsters population densities. Our results indicate that overall less rainfall and, to a lesser extent, increased variance in rainfall drive population levels down. Instantaneous evolution of optimal germination fractions in new regimes benefited species' populations only marginally, and only for small to moderate shifts in precipitation. Thus, even rapid evolution is unlikely to save populations experiencing larger shifts in precipitation. Finally, we predict that specialists that can capitalize on wet-year bonanzas or are water use efficient will be the most resilient to precipitation shifts as long as their seed survivorships are sufficiently high.

Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century

Under climate change, ecosystems are experiencing novel drought regimes, often in combination with stressors that reduce resilience and amplify drought's impacts. Consequently, drought appears increasingly likely to push systems beyond important physiological and ecological thresholds, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem characteristics persisting long after drought ends (i.e., ecological transformation). In the present article, we clarify how drought can lead to transformation across a wide variety of ecosystems including forests, woodlands, and grasslands. Specifically, we describe how climate change alters drought regimes and how this translates to impacts on plant population growth, either directly or through drought's interactions with factors such as land management, biotic interactions, and other disturbances. We emphasize how interactions among mechanisms can inhibit postdrought recovery and can shift trajectories toward alternate states. Providing a holistic picture of how drought initiates long-term change supports the development of risk assessments, predictive models, and management strategies, enhancing preparedness for a complex and growing challenge.

Responses of non-native and native plant species to fluctuations of water availability in a greenhouse experiment

Water availability strongly influences the survival, growth, and reproduction of most terrestrial plant species. Experimental evidence has well documented the effect of changes in total amount of water availability on non-native vs. native plants. However, little is known about how fluctuations in water availability affect these two groups, although more extreme fluctuations in water availability increasingly occur with prolonged drought and extreme precipitation events. Here, we grew seven non-native and seven native plant species individually in the greenhouse. Then, we exposed them to four watering treatments, each treatment with the same total amount of water, but with different divisions: W1 (added water 16 times with 125 mL per time), W2 (8 times, 250 mL per time), W3 (4 times, 500 mL per time), and W4 (2 times, 1000 mL per time). We found that both non-native and native plants produced the most biomass under medium frequency/magnitude watering treatments (W2 and W3). Interestingly, non-native plants produced 34% more biomass with the infrequent, substantial watering treatment (W4) than with frequent, minor watering treatment (W1), whereas native plants showed opposite patterns, producing 26% more biomass with W1 than with W4. Differences in the ratio of root to shoot under few/large and many/small watering treatments of non-native vs. native species probably contributed to their different responses in biomass production. Our results advance the current understanding of the effect of water availability on non-native plants, which are affected not only by changes in amount of water availability but also by fluctuations in water availability. Furthermore, our results indicate that an increased few/large precipitation pattern expected under climate change conditions might further promote non-native plant invasions. Future field experiments with multiple phylogenetically controlled pairs of non-native and native species will be required to enhance our understanding of how water availability fluctuations impact on non-native invasions.

Native annual forbs decline in California coastal prairies over 15 years despite grazing

Livestock grazing is often used as a land management tool to maximize vegetation diversity in grassland ecosystems worldwide. Prior research has shown that cattle grazing benefits native annual forb species in California's coastal prairies, but drought and increasing aridity may alter this relationship. In 2016 and 2017, we resurveyed the vegetation structure, native annual forb cover, and native annual forb richness in ten grazed and ungrazed prairies that were originally measured in 2000 and 2001 along a 200-km gradient from Monterey to Sonoma counties in California. We found that grazed prairies continued to have significantly lower vegetation height and thatch depth than ungrazed prairies, and that shrub encroachment over the 15-year period was significantly greater in ungrazed prairies. Furthermore, grazed prairies continued to have greater native annual forb richness (4.9 species per site) than ungrazed sites (3.0 species per site), but native annual forb richness declined by 2.8 species per site in grazed prairies and 0.1 species per site in ungrazed prairies between survey periods. We suggest that severe drought and increasing aridity may be driving declines in native annual forb richness in grazed prairies. The species we recorded only in earlier surveys were disproportionately wetland-associated and had higher average specific leaf area than species that remained through the second survey period. Finally, the cover of native annual species increased regardless of whether prairies were grazed, suggesting that the high precipitation in 2017 may have benefitted the native annual forb species that persisted at sites between surveys. Our study shows that weather conditions affect the outcomes of land management strategies.

Seed bank bias: Differential tracking of functional traits in the seed bank and vegetation across a gradient

A goal in trait-based ecology is to understand and predict plant community responses to environmental change; however, diversity stored within seed banks that may expand or limit these responses is typically overlooked. If seed banks store attributes that are more advantageous or vulnerable under future conditions, they could impact community adaptability to change and disturbance. We explored compositional differences between seed banks and vegetation (i.e. seed bank bias) across a twelve-site gradient of increasingly higher and older soil terraces, asking: How do seed banks contribute to taxonomic and functional composition, and what do shifts in seed bank biases along the gradient (i.e. tracking) reveal about the processes driving seed bank variation and its implications for community adaptability? Across the gradient, seed banks stored distinct pools of species that added to species richness but not functional dispersion. Seed banks were generally biased towards short-life histories and 'fast' species with small seeds, thinner and more acquisitive roots, and lower root biomass allocation; however, trait means in the seed bank and vegetation sometimes shifted along the gradient, amplifying or reversing these biases. For example, species with higher specific leaf area (tied to rapid resource acquisition) tended to dominate vegetation on lower soil terraces but were more common in the seed bank on higher terraces - at least when patterns were weighted by species' relative abundances. Although seed banks were generally characterized by 'fast' attributes, observed shifts in seed bank biases across the gradient - particularly in leaf traits - demonstrate that environment can impact stored diversity, and consequently, our expectations for future vegetative turnover. The seed bank bias patterns that we characterized could be the result of many potential processes, including environment- or trait-driven variation in seed bank inputs (seed production, dispersal) or losses (seed desiccation, germination), and may have important implications for a system's adaptive capacity. Only by integrating seed banks into the functional ecology agenda will we be able to unpack these processes and use seed banks more effectively in both prediction and ecosystem management.

Vulnerability of grassland seed banks to resource-enhancing global changes

Soil seed banks represent reservoirs of diversity in the soil that may increase resilience of communities to global changes. Two global change factors that can dramatically alter the composition and diversity of aboveground communities are nutrient enrichment and increased rainfall. In a full-factorial nutrient and rainfall addition experiment in an annual Californian grassland, we asked whether shifts in aboveground composition and diversity were reflected in belowground seed banks. Nutrient and rainfall additions increased exotic and decreased native abundances, while rainfall addition increased exotic richness, both in aboveground communities and seed banks. Under nutrient addition, forbs and short-statured plants were replaced by grasses and tall-statured species, both above and below ground, and whole-community responses to the treatments were similar. Structural equation models indicated that especially nutrient addition effects on seed banks were largely indirect via aboveground communities. However, rainfall addition also had a direct negative effect on native species richness and abundance of species with high specific leaf area (SLA) in seed banks, showing that seed banks are sensitive to the direct effects of temporary increases in rainfall. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of seed banks in annual, resource-poor grasslands to shifts in compositional and trait changes in aboveground communities and show how invasion of exotics and depletion of natives are critical for these above-belowground compositional shifts. Our findings suggest that seed banks have limited potential to buffer resource-poor annual grasslands from the community changes caused by resource enrichment.

Increasing climatic sensitivity of global grassland vegetation biomass and species diversity correlates with water availability

Grasslands are key repositories of biodiversity and carbon storage and are heavily impacted by effects of global warming and changes in precipitation regimes. Patterns of grassland dynamics associated with variability in future climate conditions across spatiotemporal scales are yet to be adequately quantified. Here, we performed a global meta-analysis of year and growing season sensitivities of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB), aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and species richness (SR) and diversity (Shannon index, H) to experimental climate warming and precipitation shifts. All four variables were sensitive to climate change. Their sensitivities to shifts in precipitation were correlated with local background water availability, such as mean annual precipitation (MAP) and aridity, and AGB and ANPP sensitivities were greater in dry habitats than in nonwater-limited habitats. There was no effect of duration of experiment (short vs long term) on sensitivities. Temporal trends in ANPP and SR sensitivity depended on local water availability; ANPP sensitivity to warming increased over time and SR sensitivity to irrigation decreased over time. Our results provide a global overview of the sensitivities of grassland function and diversity to climate change that will improve the understanding of ecological responses across spatiotemporal scales and inform policies for conservation in dry climates.

Impacts of invasive annual grasses and their litter vary by native functional strategy

Invasive species may act as a functional filter on native communities by differentially affecting species with different trait values. Across environments, invasive plants typically display traits associated with high resource acquisition and fast growth. Conversely, native plants, especially those in water-limited environments, tend to adopt one of two functional strategies: fast growth during high resource availability to avoid stress (resource-acquisitive), or slow growth during resource-poor conditions to tolerate stress (resource-conservative). While invasive competition can be a strong filter on these groups, many invaders also alter the structure of native communities through their accumulation of litter. How fast-growing invaders with litter shift native functional communities remains unknown. To elucidate these functional shifts, I manipulated invasive annual grasses and their litter in an annual grassland and followed the demographic rates of six native annual forb species that varied in their functional strategy. Live grass competition alone decreased per capita growth rates of resource-acquisitive natives and had no effect on resource-conservative natives. The presence of litter, however, decreased growth rates in both functional types of natives, with stronger declines in resource-acquisitive species through differential effects on seed set and germination. Invaders in this system thus create an unfavorable environment for natives through litter, limiting the capacity of both resource-acquisitive and resource-conservative native forbs to maintain high population growth. These findings suggest that grass invasions have the potential to dramatically shift the functional composition of native communities through the time-lagged effects of their litter.

Indigenous plant species and invasive alien species tend to diverge functionally under heavy metal pollution and drought stress

The functional similarity between indigenous plant species (IPS) and invasive alien species (IAS) governs the invasion process of successful IAS because IPS and coexisting IAS suffer alike or even same ecological selection pressures. The aggravated condition created by heavy metal pollution (HMP) and drought stress may generate a noticeable impact on the invasive competitiveness and invasion process of IAS possibly via the variations in the functional similarity between IPS and IAS. Consequently, it is necessary to illumine the functional similarity between IPS and IAS under HMP and drought stress to clarify the mechanisms underlying the successful invasion of IAS. This study aims to estimate the functional similarity between IPS Amaranthus tricolor L. and IAS A. retroflexus L. under the condition with the alone and combined effects of HMP with different kinds (e.g., Cu and Pb) and drought stress [simulated by polyethylene glycol-6000 (PEG) solution]. HMP notably declines A. tricolor growth but has no remarkable effect on A. retroflexus growth. A. retroflexus displays a strong competitive intensity than A. tricolor under HMP. Further, HMP makes a greater stress intensity on A. tricolor growth than A. retroflexus growth. Therefore, HMP can accelerate A. retroflexus invasion. A. retroflexus displays a poor competitive intensity under drought stress. Thus, drought stress can hinder A. retroflexus invasion. However, drought stress causes a greater stress intensity on A. tricolor growth than A. retroflexus growth. Thus, the continued drought stress may converse the adverse effects of drought stress on A. retroflexus invasion potentially. The two Amaranthus species tend to diverge functionally under the combined HMP and drought stress. Further, A. retroflexus shows a strong competitive intensity than A. tricolor under the combined HMP and drought stress. Moreover, the combined HMP and drought stress induces a greater stress intensity on A. tricolor growth than A. retroflexus growth. Thus, the combined HMP and drought stress can facilitate A. retroflexus invasion. Meanwhile, the competitiveness for sunlight acquisition and leaf photosynthetic capacity may play a key role in the successful invasion of A. retroflexus under the combined HMP and drought stress.

Simulated Photovoltaic Solar Panels Alter the Seed Bank Survival of Two Desert Annual Plant Species

Seed bank survival underpins plant population persistence but studies on seed bank trait-environment interactions are few. Changes in environmental conditions relevant to seed banks occur in desert ecosystems owing to solar energy development. We developed a conceptual model of seed bank survival to complement methodologies using in-situ seed bank packets. Using this framework, we quantified the seed bank survival of two closely related annual desert plant species, one rare (Eriophyllum mohavense) and one common (Eriophyllum wallacei), and the seed bank-environment interactions of these two species in the Mojave Desert within a system that emulates microhabitat variation associated with solar energy development. We tracked 4860 seeds buried across 540 seed packets and found, averaged across both species, that seed bank survival was 21% and 6% for the first and second growing seasons, respectively. After two growing seasons, the rare annual had a significantly greater seed bank survival (10%) than the common annual (2%). Seed bank survival across both species was significantly greater in shade (10%) microhabitats compared to runoff (5%) and control microhabitats (3%). Our study proffers insight into this early life-stage across rare and common congeners and their environmental interactions using a novel conceptual framework for seed bank survival.

Invasive species interact with climatic variability to reduce success of natives

Plants have evolved resource-conservative and resource-acquisitive strategies to deal with variability in rainfall, but interactions with dominant invasive species may undermine these adaptations. To investigate the relative effect of invaders on species with these two strategies, we manipulated rainfall and invasive grass presence and measured demographic rates in three resource-acquisitive and three resource-conservative native annual forbs. We found that invasive grasses were harmful to all of the target species, but especially the resource-acquisitive ones, and that these effects were stronger under experimental drought. Invasive grass presence under drought lowered per capita population growth rates of acquisitive natives through increased mortality and decreased seed set. While invasive grasses also decreased per capita growth rates of resource-conservative natives, they did so by increasing mortality under experimental watering and by limiting the production of seed under experimental drought. Invasive species can thus interact with climatic fluctuations to make bad years worse for resource-acquisitive natives and good years less good for resource-conservative natives, and they may generally tend to undermine the acquisitive strategy more than the conservative one.

Plant community diversity will decline more than increase under climatic warming

Regions and localities may lose many species to extinction under rapid climate change and may gain other species that colonize from nearby warmer environments. Here, it is argued that warming-induced species losses will generally exceed gains and there will be more net declines than net increases in plant community richness. Declines in richness are especially likely in water-limited climates where intensifying aridity will increasingly exceed plant tolerances, but also in colder temperature-limited climates where steep climatic gradients are lacking, and therefore, large pools of appropriate species are not immediately adjacent. The selectivity of warming-induced losses may lead to declines in functional and phylogenetic diversity as well as in species richness, especially in water-limited climates. Our current understanding of climate-caused diversity trends may be overly influenced by numerous studies coming from north-temperate alpine mountaintops, where conditions are unusually favourable for increases-possibly temporary-in local species richness. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Invasion windows for a global legume invader are revealed after joint examination of abiotic and biotic filters

Successful alien plant invasion is influenced by both climate change and plant-plant interactions. We estimate the single and interactive effects of competition and extreme weather events on the performance of the global legume invader Lupinus polyphyllus (Lindl.). In three experimental studies we assessed (i) the stress tolerance of seedling and adult L. polyphyllus plants against extreme weather events (drought, fluctuating precipitation, late frost), (ii) the competitive effects of L. polyphyllus on native grassland species and vice versa, and (iii) the interactive effects of extreme weather events and competition on the performance of L. polyphyllus. Drought reduced growth and led to early senescence of L. polyphyllus but did not reduce adult survival. Fluctuating precipitation events and late frost reduced the length of inflorescences. Under control conditions, interspecific competition reduced photosynthetic activity and growth of L. polyphyllus. When subjected to competition during drought, L. polyphyllus conserved water while simultaneously maintaining high assimilation rates, demonstrating increased water use efficiency. Meanwhile, native species had reduced performance under drought. In summary, the invader gained an advantage under drought conditions through a smaller reduction in performance relative to its native competitors but was competitively inferior under control conditions. This provides evidence for a possible invasion window for this species. While regions of high elevation or latitude with regular severe late frost events might remain inaccessible for L. polyphyllus, further spread across Europe seems probable as the predicted increase in drought events may favour this non-native legume over native species.

Invasive annuals respond more negatively to drought than native species

In his foundational list of 'ideal weed' characteristics, Baker (1965) proposed that weedy plants maximize reproductive output under high resource availability. Since then, the idea that invasive plant species are more responsive to fluctuating resources compared with native or noninvasive species has gained considerable traction, although few studies extend this hypothesis to include reproductive output. We revisit Baker's hypothesis in the context of invasion and drought in California grasslands, exploring whether invasives show greater growth and reproductive responses to water availability compared with the native wildflowers they displace. In an outdoor potted study, we grew eight native and eight invasive species of annuals commonly found in southern California grasslands to reproductive maturity under both well-watered and drought conditions. While drought negatively impacted plant performance overall, invasives showed more negative responses for growth and reproductive traits. Invasives also grew larger than native species, especially under well-watered conditions, and produced seed with higher rates of germination. Invasives may be more negatively impacted by drought compared with natives, but they are also able to capitalize on high resource conditions and greatly increase reproductive output. Such opportunistic responses exhibited by invasives might explain previously observed fluctuations in their abundance under variable precipitation.

Seedling traits predict drought-induced mortality linked to diversity loss

Trait-based approaches are increasingly used to predict ecological consequences of climate change, yet seldom have solid links been established between plant traits and observed climate-driven community changes. Most analyses have focused on aboveground adult plant traits, but in warming and drying climates, root traits may be critical, and seedlings may be the vulnerable stage. Relationships of seedling and root traits to more commonly measured traits and ecological outcomes are poorly known. In an annual grassland where winter drought-induced seedling mortality is driving a long-term decline in native diversity, using a field experiment during the exceptionally dry winter of 2017-2018, we found that seedling mortality was higher and growth of seedlings and adults were lower in unwatered than watered sites. Mortality of unwatered seedlings was higher in species with shorter seedling roots, and also in species with the correlated traits of small seeds, high seedling specific leaf area (SLA), and tall seedlings. Adult traits varied along an axis from short-stature, high SLA and foliar N, and early flowering to the opposite values, and were only weakly correlated with seedling traits and seedling mortality. No evidence was found for adaptive plasticity, such as longer roots or lower SLA in unwatered plants. Among these species, constitutive variation in seedling root length explained most of the variation in survival of a highly vulnerable life stage under winter drought. Selective loss of species with high adult SLA, observed in this community and others under drought stress, may be the byproduct of other correlated traits.

Recent advances in understanding grasslands

Grasslands are a vitally important ecosystem, supporting a wide range of ecosystem services and high levels of biodiversity. As a consequence, they have long been a focus for ecologists, playing host to some of the world’s longest-running ecological experiments and providing the inspiration for many long-standing theories and debates. Because the field of grassland ecology is broad, encompassing many areas of ecology, this article picks some areas of particular debate and development to look at recent advances. The areas include relationships between diversity and productivity, ecosystem stability and ecosystem service provision, global change threats from nutrient addition, invasive species, climate change, and plant soil interactions.