Patterns of Forest Decline and Regeneration Across Scots Pine Populations

Revealing legacy effects of extreme droughts on tree growth of oaks across the Northern Hemisphere

Forests are undergoing increasing risks of drought-induced tree mortality. Species replacement patterns following mortality may have a significant impact on the global carbon cycle. Among major hardwoods, deciduous oaks (Quercus spp.) are increasingly reported as replacing dying conifers across the Northern Hemisphere. Yet, our knowledge on the growth responses of these oaks to drought is incomplete, especially regarding post-drought legacy effects. The objectives of this study were to determine the occurrence, duration, and magnitude of legacy effects of extreme droughts and how that vary across species, sites, and drought characteristics. The legacy effects were quantified by the deviation of observed from expected radial growth indices in the period 1940-2016. We used stand-level chronologies from 458 sites and 21 oak species primarily from Europe, north-eastern America, and eastern Asia. We found that legacy effects of droughts could last from 1 to 5 years after the drought and were more prolonged in dry sites. Negative legacy effects (i.e., lower growth than expected) were more prevalent after repetitive droughts in dry sites. The effect of repetitive drought was stronger in Mediterranean oaks especially in Quercus faginea. Species-specific analyses revealed that Q. petraea and Q. macrocarpa from dry sites were more negatively affected by the droughts while growth of several oak species from mesic sites increased during post-drought years. Sites showing positive correlations to winter temperature showed little to no growth depression after drought, whereas sites with a positive correlation to previous summer water balance showed decreased growth. This may indicate that although winter warming favors tree growth during droughts, previous-year summer precipitation may predispose oak trees to current-year extreme droughts. Our results revealed a massive role of repetitive droughts in determining legacy effects and highlighted how growth sensitivity to climate, drought seasonality and species-specific traits drive the legacy effects in deciduous oak species.

Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios

In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.

Unexpected resilience in relict Abies pinsapo Boiss forests to dieback and mortality induced by climate change

Acute and early symptoms of forest dieback linked to climate warming and drought episodes have been reported for relict Abies pinsapo Boiss. fir forests from Southern Spain, particularly at their lower ecotone. Satellite, orthoimages, and field data were used to assess forest decline, tree mortality, and gap formation and recolonization in the lower half of the altitudinal range of A. pinsapo forests (850-1550 m) for the last 36 years (1985-2020). Field surveys were carried out in 2003 and in 2020 to characterize changes in stand canopy structure and mortality rates across the altitudinal range. Time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the end of the dry season (derived from Landsat 5 and 7 imagery) were used for a Dynamic Factor Analysis to detect common trends across altitudinal bands and topographic solar incidence gradients (SI). Historical canopy cover changes were analyzed through aerial orthoimages classification. Here we show that extensive decline and mortality contrast to the almost steady alive basal area for 17 years, as well as the rising photosynthetic activity derived from NDVI since the mid-2000s and an increase in the forest canopy cover in the late years at mid and high altitudes. We hypothesized that these results suggest an unexpected resilience in A. pinsapo forests to climate change-induced dieback, that might be promoted by compensation mechanisms such as (i) recruitment of new A. pinsapo individuals; (ii) facilitative effects on such recruitment mediated by revegetation with other species; and (iii) a 'release effect' in which surviving trees can thrive with fewer resource competition. Future research is needed to understand these compensation mechanisms and their scope in future climate change scenarios.

Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. Here, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

Tree resistance and recovery from drought mediated by multiple abiotic and biotic processes across a large geographic gradient

Worldwide, increasing severity of droughts threatens to change forest ecosystem functioning and community structure. Understanding how forest resilience is determined by its two underlying components, resistance and recovery, will help elucidate the mechanisms of drought responses and help inform management strategies. However, drought responses are shaped by complex processes across different scales, including species-specific drought strategies, tree size, competition, local environmental conditions, and the intensity of the drought event. Here, we quantified the reduction in tree growth during drought (an inverse measure of drought resistance) and post-drought recovery for three montane conifers (Abies concolor, Pinus jeffreyi, and Pinus lambertiana) in California. We used tree ring analysis to quantify responses to drought events of varying intensity between 1895 and 2018 across a geographic climatic gradient, to examine the roles of tree size (DBH) and competition (tree density) in mediating drought responses. We found that years of more intense drought corresponded with larger growth reductions and recovery rates were lower following drought years where trees suffered larger reductions. We found little variation among species in their growth reductions during drought events, but significant differences among species in their recovery post-drought. Across the geographic gradient, trees in the driest locations were susceptible to large growth reductions, signaling either strong sensitivity to drought intensity or exposure to the most extreme drought conditions. These growth reductions were not always compensated for by higher recovery rates. We also found that larger trees were more susceptible to drought due to a steeper negative relationship between recovery rates and the intensity of growth reduction during the drought. Contrary to expectations, recovery rates following the most detrimental drought years were higher in denser forests. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering how factors at various spatial and temporal scales affect the different components of drought responses.

Short-term decline of Castanopsis fargesii adult trees promotes conspecific seedling regeneration: The complete process from seed production to seedling establishment

Declining forests usually face uncertain regeneration dynamics and recovery trajectories, which are challenging to forest management. In this study, we investigated the decline pattern of Castanopsis fargesii and examined the effects on conspecific seedling regeneration. We found that 61.45% of adult individuals were in decline and the smaller DBH size classes of trees (10–40 cm) had a greater probability of decline. Most of the intermediate decline (94.52%) and nondecline individuals (95.23%) did not worsen, and the crowns of 21.91% of the intermediate decline trees were recovered during 2013–2018. Adult tree decline had a negative effect on seed production (mean mature seed density of nondecline, intermediate decline, and high decline individuals was 167.3, 63.3, and 2.1 seeds/m², respectively), but no effect on key seed traits. The seed survival rate of declining trees was greater than that of nondeclining trees at both the seed production and seed dispersal stages. The seed to seedling transition rates in canopy gaps, decline habitats, and nondecline habitats were 7.94%, 9.47%, and 109.24%, respectively. The survival rate and height growth of newly germinated seedlings were positively correlated with the light condition, which was notably accelerated in the canopy gaps. Taken together, these results indicate that the reduction in seed production of some adult trees had a weakly negative effect on new seedling recruitment, while the improved environmental condition after the decline significantly enhanced the survival and growth of both advanced and new germinated seedlings. Looking at the overall life history, the short‐term defoliation and mortality of some C. fargesii adult trees can be regarded as a natural forest disturbance that favors conspecific seedling regeneration. High‐intensity management measures would be unnecessary in cases of an emerging intermediate decline in this forest.

Spatial lag effect of aridity and nitrogen deposition on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) damage

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is a widespread tolerant forest tree-species; however, its adaptability to environmental change differs among sites with various buffering capacity. In this study, we compared the spatial effects of aridity index (AI) and nitrogen deposition (ND) on biomass density in natural and man-made pine stands of differing soil fertility using geographically weighted multiple lag regression. Soil fertility was defined using soil series as zonal trophic (27.9%), acidic (48.2%), gleyed (15.2%) and as azonal exposed (2.5%), maple (2.4%), ash (0.8%), wet (2.1%) and peat (0.9%) under pine stands in the Czech Republic (Central Europe; 4290.5 km²; 130-1298 m a.s.l.). Annual AI and ND in every pine stand were estimated by intersection between raster and vector from 1 × 1 km grid for years 2000, 2003, 2007 and 2010 of severe non-specific forest damage spread. Biomass density was obtained from a MODIS 250 × 250 m raster using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) for years 2000-2015, with a decrease in EVI indicating non-specific damage. Environmental change was assessed by comparing predictor values at EVI time t and t+λ. Non-specific damage was registered over 51.9% of total forest area. Less than 8.8% of damaged stands were natural and the rest (91.2%) of damaged stands were man-made. Pure pine stands were more damaged than mixed. The ND effect prevailed up to 2007, while AI dominated later. Temporal increasing ND effect under AI effectiveness led to the most significant pine stand damage in 2008 and 2014. Predictors from 2000 to 2007 afflicted 58.5% of non-specifically damaged stands at R² 0.09-0.76 (median 0.38), but from 2000 to 2010 afflicted 57.1% of the stands at R² 0.16-0.75 (median 0.40). The most damaged stands occurred on acidic sites. Mixed forest and sustainable management on natural sites seem as effective remediation reducing damage by ND.

Drought is a stronger driver of soil respiration and microbial communities than nitrogen or phosphorus addition in two Mediterranean tree species

The drivers of global change, such as increasing drought and nutrient deposition, are affecting soils and their microbial communities in many different habitats, but how these factors interact remains unclear. Quercus ilex and Pinus sylvestris are two important tree species in Mediterranean montane areas that respond differently to drought, which may be associated with the soils in which they grow. We measured soil respiration and physiologically profiled microbial communities to test the impact of drought and subsequent recovery on soil function and diversity for these two species. We also tested whether the addition of nitrogen and phosphorus modified these effects. Drought was the stronger driver of changes to the soil communities, decreasing diversity (Shannon index), and evenness for both species and decreasing soil respiration for Q. ilex when N was added. Soil respiration for P. sylvestris during the drought period was positively affected by N addition but was not affected by water stress. P addition during the drought period did not affect soil respiration for either tree species but did interact with soil-water content to affect community evenness for P. sylvestris. The two species also differed following the recovery from drought. Soil respiration for Q. ilex recovered fully after the drought treatment ended but decreased for P. sylvestris, whereas the soil community was more resilient for P. sylvestris than Q. ilex. Nutrient addition did not affect respiration or community composition or diversity during the recovery period. Soil respiration was generally weakly positively correlated with soil diversity. We demonstrate that short-term water stress and nutrient addition can have variable effects on the soil communities associated with different tree species and that the compositions of the communities can become uncoupled from soil respiration. Overall, we show that drought may be a stronger driver of changes to soil communities than nitrogen or phosphorus deposition.

Relationship between heatwave-induced forest die-off and climatic suitability in multiple tree species

In recent decades, many forest die-off events have been reported in relation to climate-change-induced episodes, such as droughts and heat waves. To understand how these extreme climatic events induce forest die-off, it is important to find a tool to standardize the climatic conditions experienced by different populations during a specific climatic event, taking into account the historic climatic conditions of the site where these populations live (bioclimatic niche). In this study, we used estimates of climatic suitability calculated from species distribution models (SDMs) for such purpose. We studied forest die-off across France during the 2003 heatwave that affected Western Europe, using 2,943 forest inventory plots dominated by 14 single tree species. Die-off severity was estimated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) loss using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensor imagery. Climatic suitability at the local level during the historical 1979-2002 period (HCS), the episode time (2003; ECS) and suitability deviance during the historical period (HCS-SD) were calculated for each species by means of boosted regression tree models using the CHELSA climate database and occurrences extracted from European forest inventories. Low HCS-SD and high mean annual temperature explained the overall regional pattern of vulnerability to die-off across different monospecific forests. The combination of high historical and low episode climatic suitability also contributed significantly to overall forest die-off. Furthermore, we observed different species-specific relationships between die-off vulnerability and climatic suitability: Sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean species tended to be vulnerable in historically more suitable localities (high HCS), whereas Euro-Siberian species presented greater vulnerability when the hot drought episode was more intense. We demonstrated that at regional scale, past climatic legacy plays an important role in explaining NDVI loss during the episode. Moreover, we demonstrated that SDMs-derived indexes, such as HCS, ECS and HCS-SD, could constitute a tool for standardizing the ways that populations and species experience climatic variability across time and space.

Forest recovery following extreme drought in California, USA: natural patterns and effects of pre-drought management

Rising temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts are driving increases in tree mortality in forests around the globe. However, in many cases, the likely trajectories of forest recovery following drought-related mortality are poorly understood. In many fire-suppressed western U.S. forests, management is applied to reverse densification and restore natural forest structure and species composition, but it is unclear how such management affects post-mortality recovery. We addressed these uncertainties by examining forest stands that experienced mortality during the severe drought of 2012-2016 in California, USA. We surveyed post-drought vegetation along a gradient of overstory mortality severity in paired treated (mechanically thinned or prescribed-burned) and untreated areas in the Sierra Nevada. Treatment substantially reduced tree density, particularly in smaller tree size classes, and these effects persisted through severe drought-related overstory mortality. However, even in treated areas with severe mortality (>67% basal area mortality), the combined density of residual (surviving) trees (mean 44 trees/ha) and saplings (mean 189 saplings/ha) frequently (86% of plots) fell within or exceeded the natural range of variation (NRV) of tree density, suggesting little need for reforestation intervention to increase density. Residual tree densities in untreated high-mortality plots were significantly higher (mean 192 trees/ha and 506 saplings/ha), and 96% of these plots met or exceeded the NRV. Treatment disproportionately removed shade-tolerant conifer species, while mortality in the drought event was concentrated in pines (Pinus ponderosa and P. lambertiana); as a consequence, the residual trees, saplings, and seedlings in treated areas, particularly those that had experienced moderate or high drought-related mortality, were more heavily dominated by broadleaf ("hardwood") trees (particularly Quercus kelloggii and Q. chrysolepis). In contrast, residual trees and regeneration in untreated stands were heavily dominated by shade-tolerant conifer species (Abies concolor and Calocedrus decurrens), suggesting a need for future treatment. Because increased dominance of hardwoods brings benefits for plant and animal diversity and stand resilience, the ecological advantages of mechanical thinning and prescribed fire treatments may, depending on the management perspective, extend even to stands that ultimately experience high drought-related mortality following treatment.

Post-drought Resilience After Forest Die-Off: Shifts in Regeneration, Composition, Growth and Productivity

A better understanding on the consequences of drought on forests can be reached by paying special attention to their resilience capacity, i.e., the ability to return to a state similar to pre-drought conditions. Nevertheless, extreme droughts may surpass the threshold for the resilience capacity triggering die-off causing multiple changes at varying spatial and temporal scales and affecting diverse processes (tree growth and regeneration, ecosystem productivity). Combining several methodological tools allows reaching a comprehensive characterization of post-drought forest resilience. We evaluated the changes in the abundance, regeneration capacity (seedling abundance), and radial growth (annual tree rings) of the main tree species. We also assessed if drought-induced reductions in growth and regeneration of the dominant tree species scale-up to drops in vegetation productivity by using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We studied two conifer forests located in north-eastern Spain which displayed drought-induced die-off during the last decades: a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest under continental Mediterranean conditions and a Silver fir (Abies alba) forest under more temperate conditions. We found a strong negative impact of a recent severe drought (2012) on Scots pine growth, whereas the coexisting Juniperus thurifera showed positive trends in basal area increment (0.02 ± 0.003 cm² yr^-1). No Scots pine recruitment was observed in sites with intense die-off, but J. thurifera and Quercus ilex recruited. The 2012 drought event translated into a strong NDVI reduction (32% lower than the 1982-2014 average). In Silver fir we found a negative impact of the 2012 drought on short-term radial growth, whilst long-term growth of Silver fir and the coexisting Fagus sylvatica showed positive trends. Growth rates were higher in F. sylvatica (0.04 ± 0.003 cm² yr^-1) than in A. alba (0.02 ± 0.004 cm² yr^-1). These two species recruited beneath declining and non-declining Silver fir trees. The 2012 drought translated into a strong NDVI reduction which lasted until 2013. The results presented here suggest two different post-drought vegetation pathways. In the Scots pine forest, the higher growth and recruitment rates of J. thurifera correspond to a vegetation shift where Scots pine is being replaced by the drought-tolerant juniper. Conversely, in the Silver fir forest there is an increase of F. sylvatica growth and abundance but no local extinction of the Silver fir. Further research is required to monitor the evolution of these forests in the forthcoming years to illustrate the cumulative impacts of drought on successional dynamics.

What mediates tree mortality during drought in the southern Sierra Nevada?

Severe drought has the potential to cause selective mortality within a forest, thereby inducing shifts in forest species composition. The southern Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains of California have experienced extensive forest dieback due to drought stress and insect outbreak. We used high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy (HiFIS) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) to estimate the effect of forest dieback on species composition in response to drought stress in Sequoia National Park. Our aims were (1) to quantify site-specific conditions that mediate tree mortality along an elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, (2) to assess where mortality events have a greater probability of occurring, and (3) to estimate which tree species have a greater likelihood of mortality along the elevation gradient. A series of statistical models were generated to classify species composition and identify tree mortality, and the influences of different environmental factors were spatially quantified and analyzed to assess where mortality events have a greater likelihood of occurring. A higher probability of mortality was observed in the lower portion of the elevation gradient, on southwest- and west-facing slopes, in areas with shallow soils, on shallower slopes, and at greater distances from water. All of these factors are related to site water balance throughout the landscape. Our results also suggest that mortality is species-specific along the elevation gradient, mainly affecting Pinus ponderosa and Pinus lambertiana at lower elevations. Selective mortality within the forest may drive long-term shifts in community composition along the elevation gradient.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

The fate of recently fixed carbon after drought release: towards unravelling C storage regulation in Tilia platyphyllos and Pinus sylvestris

Carbon reserves are important for maintaining tree function during and after stress. Increasing tree mortality driven by drought globally has renewed the interest in how plants regulate allocation of recently fixed C to reserve formation. Three-year-old seedlings of two species (Tilia platyphyllos and Pinus sylvestris) were exposed to two intensities of experimental drought during ~10 weeks, and ¹³ C pulse labelling was subsequently applied with rewetting. Tracking the ¹³ C label across different organs and C compounds (soluble sugars, starch, myo-inositol, lipids and cellulose), together with the monitoring of gas exchange and C mass balances over time, allowed for the identification of variations in C allocation priorities and tree C balances that are associated with drought effects and subsequent drought release. The results demonstrate that soluble sugars accumulated in P. sylvestris under drought conditions independently of growth trends; thus, non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) formation cannot be simply considered a passive overflow process in this species. Once drought ceased, C allocation to storage was still prioritized at the expense of growth, which suggested the presence of 'drought memory effects', possibly to ensure future growth and survival. On the contrary, NSC and growth dynamics in T. platyphyllos were consistent with a passive (overflow) view of NSC formation.

Regeneration of three pine species in a Mediterranean forest: A study to test predictions from species distribution models under changing climates

The study tested the hypothesis that future changes in the composition of tree communities, as predicted by species distribution models, could already be apparent in the current regeneration patterns of three pine species (Pinus pinaster, P. nigra and P. sylvestris)inhabiting the central-eastern mountains of Spain. We carried out both an observational study and a seed-sowing experiment to analyze, along an altitudinal and latitudinal gradient, whether recent recruitment patterns indicate an expansion of P. pinaster forests to the detriment of P. nigra ones in the low-altitude southern sites of these mountains; or whether P. sylvestris is being replaced by P. nigra in the high-altitude sites from the same area. The observational study gathered data from 561 plots of the Spanish National Forest Inventory. The seed-sowing experiment tested the effects of irrigation and stand basal area on seedling emergence and survival. Data were analyzed by means of Generalized Linear Models and Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Regeneration of the three pine species responded similarly to the explicative factors studied, but the density of tree seedlings and saplings exhibited a wide spatial heterogeneity. This result suggested that a mosaic of site- and species-specific responses to climate change might mislead model projections on the future forest occupancy of tree species. Yet, we found no indications of neither an expansion nor a contraction of the near future forest occupancy of the tree species studied.

Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity, lower wood density and higher specific leaf area

Drought events are increasing globally, and reports of consequent forest mortality are widespread. However, due to a lack of a quantitative global synthesis, it is still not clear whether drought-induced mortality rates differ among global biomes and whether functional traits influence the risk of drought-induced mortality. To address these uncertainties, we performed a global meta-analysis of 58 studies of drought-induced forest mortality. Mortality rates were modelled as a function of drought, temperature, biomes, phylogenetic and functional groups and functional traits. We identified a consistent global-scale response, where mortality increased with drought severity [log mortality (trees trees^-1  year^-1 ) increased 0.46 (95% CI = 0.2-0.7) with one SPEI unit drought intensity]. We found no significant differences in the magnitude of the response depending on forest biomes or between angiosperms and gymnosperms or evergreen and deciduous tree species. Functional traits explained some of the variation in drought responses between species (i.e. increased from 30 to 37% when wood density and specific leaf area were included). Tree species with denser wood and lower specific leaf area showed lower mortality responses. Our results illustrate the value of functional traits for understanding patterns of drought-induced tree mortality and suggest that mortality could become increasingly widespread in the future.

Towards a common methodology for developing logistic tree mortality models based on ring-width data

Tree mortality is a key process shaping forest dynamics. Thus, there is a growing need for indicators of the likelihood of tree death. During the last decades, an increasing number of tree-ring based studies have aimed to derive growth-mortality functions, mostly using logistic models. The results of these studies, however, are difficult to compare and synthesize due to the diversity of approaches used for the sampling strategy (number and characteristics of alive and death observations), the type of explanatory growth variables included (level, trend, etc.), and the length of the time window (number of years preceding the alive/death observation) that maximized the discrimination ability of each growth variable. We assess the implications of key methodological decisions when developing tree-ring based growth-mortality relationships using logistic mixed-effects regression models. As examples, we use published tree-ring datasets from Abies alba (13 different sites), Nothofagus dombeyi (one site), and Quercus petraea (one site). Our approach is based on a constant sampling size and aims at (1) assessing the dependency of growth-mortality relationships on the statistical sampling scheme used, (2) determining the type of explanatory growth variables that should be considered, and (3) identifying the best length of the time window used to calculate them. The performance of tree-ring-based mortality models was reasonably high for all three species (area under the receiving operator characteristics curve, AUC > 0.7). Growth level variables were the most important predictors of mortality probability for two species (A. alba, N. dombeyi), while growth-trend variables need to be considered for Q. petraea. In addition, the length of the time window used to calculate each growth variable was highly uncertain and depended on the sampling scheme, as some growth-mortality relationships varied with tree age. The present study accounts for the main sampling-related biases to determine reliable species-specific growth-mortality relationships. Our results highlight the importance of using a sampling strategy that is consistent with the research question. Moving towards a common methodology for developing reliable growth-mortality relationships is an important step towards improving our understanding of tree mortality across species and its representation in dynamic vegetation models.

A possible link between life and death of a xeric tree in desert

Understanding the interactions between drought and tree ontogeny or size remains an essential research priority because size-specific mortality patterns have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function, determine forest carbon storage capacity, and are sensitive to climatic change. Here we investigate a xerophytic tree species (Haloxylon ammodendron (C.A. Mey.)) with which the changes in biomass allocation with tree size may play an important role in size-specific mortality patterns. Size-related changes in biomass allocation, root distribution, plant water status, gas exchange, hydraulic architecture and non-structural carbohydrate reserves of this xerophytic tree species were investigated to assess their potential role in the observed U-shaped mortality pattern. We found that excessively negative water potentials (<-4.7MPa, beyond the P50leaf of -4.1MPa) during prolonged drought in young trees lead to hydraulic failure; while the imbalance of photoassimilate allocation between leaf and root system in larger trees, accompanied with declining C reserves (<2% dry matter across four tissues), might have led to carbon starvation. The drought-resistance strategy of this species is preferential biomass allocation to the roots to improve water capture. In young trees, the drought-resistance strategy is not well developed, and hydraulic failure appears to be the dominant driver of mortality during drought. With old trees, excess root growth at the expense of leaf area may lead to carbon starvation during prolonged drought. Our results suggest that the drought-resistance strategy of this xeric tree is closely linked to its life and death: well-developed drought-resistance strategy means life, while underdeveloped or overdeveloped drought-resistance strategy means death.

Strong resilience of soil respiration components to drought-induced die-off resulting in forest secondary succession

How forests cope with drought-induced perturbations and how the dependence of soil respiration on environmental and biological drivers is affected in a warming and drying context are becoming key questions. The aims of this study were to determine whether drought-induced die-off and forest succession were reflected in soil respiration and its components and to determine the influence of climate on the soil respiration components. We used the mesh exclusion method to study seasonal variations in soil respiration (R S) and its components: heterotrophic (R H) and autotrophic (R A) [further split into fine root (R R) and mycorrhizal respiration (R M)] in a mixed Mediterranean forest where Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is undergoing a drought-induced die-off and is being replaced by holm oak (Quercus ilex L.). Drought-induced pine die-off was not reflected in R S nor in its components, which denotes a high functional resilience of the plant and soil system to pine die-off. However, the succession from Scots pine to holm oak resulted in a reduction of R H and thus in an important decrease of total respiration (R S was 36 % lower in holm oaks than in non-defoliated pines). Furthermore, R S and all its components were strongly regulated by soil water content-and-temperature interaction. Since Scots pine die-off and Quercus species colonization seems to be widely occurring at the driest limit of the Scots pine distribution, the functional resilience of the soil system over die-off and the decrease of R S from Scots pine to holm oak could have direct consequences for the C balance of these ecosystems.

Balancing the risks of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation: a twig scale analysis in declining Scots pine

Understanding physiological processes involved in drought-induced mortality is important for predicting the future of forests and for modelling the carbon and water cycles. Recent research has highlighted the variable risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure in drought-exposed trees. However, little is known about the specific responses of leaves and supporting twigs, despite their critical role in balancing carbon acquisition and water loss. Comparing healthy (non-defoliated) and unhealthy (defoliated) Scots pine at the same site, we measured the physiological variables involved in regulating carbon and water resources. Defoliated trees showed different responses to summer drought compared with non-defoliated trees. Defoliated trees maintained gas exchange while non-defoliated trees reduced photosynthesis and transpiration during the drought period. At the branch scale, very few differences were observed in non-structural carbohydrate concentrations between health classes. However, defoliated trees tended to have lower water potentials and smaller hydraulic safety margins. While non-defoliated trees showed a typical response to drought for an isohydric species, the physiology appears to be driven in defoliated trees by the need to maintain carbon resources in twigs. These responses put defoliated trees at higher risk of branch hydraulic failure and help explain the interaction between carbon starvation and hydraulic failure in dying trees.

What determines tree mortality in dry environments? A multi-perspective approach

Forest ecosystems function under increasing pressure due to global climate changes, while factors determining when and where mortality events will take place within the wider landscape are poorly understood. Observational studies are essential for documenting forest decline events, understanding their determinants, and developing sustainable management plans. A central obstacle towards achieving this goal is that mortality is often patchy across a range of spatial scales, and characterized by long-term temporal dynamics. Research must therefore integrate different methods, from several scientific disciplines, to capture as many relevant informative patterns as possible. We performed a landscape-scale assessment of mortality and its determinants in two representative Pinus halepensis planted forests from a dry environment (~300 mm), recently experiencing an unprecedented sequence of two severe drought periods. Three data sources were integrated to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in forest performance: (1) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series, from 18 Landsat satellite images; (2) individual dead trees point-pattern, based on a high-resolution aerial photograph; and (3) Basal Area Increment (BAI) time-series, from dendrochronological sampling in three sites. Mortality risk was higher in older-aged sparse stands, on southern aspects, and on deeper soils. However, mortality was patchy across all spatial scales, and the locations of patches within "high-risk" areas could not be fully explained by the examined environmental factors. Moreover, the analysis of past forest performance based on NDVI and tree rings has indicated that the areas affected by each of the two recent droughts do not coincide. The association of mortality with lower tree densities did not support the notion that thinning semiarid forests will increase survival probability of the remaining trees when facing extreme drought. Unique information was obtained when merging dendrochronological and remotely sensed performance indicators, in contrast to potential bias when using a single approach. For example, dendrochronological data suggested highly resilient tree growth, since it was based only on the "surviving" portion of the population, thus failing to identify past demographic changes evident through remote sensing. We therefore suggest that evaluation of forest resilience should be based on several metrics, each suited for detecting transitions at a different level of organization.

The role of defoliation and root rot pathogen infection in driving the mode of drought-related physiological decline in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)

Drought-related tree die-off episodes have been observed in all vegetated continents. Despite much research effort, however, the multiple interactions between carbon starvation, hydraulic failure and biotic agents in driving tree mortality under field conditions are still not well understood. We analysed the seasonal variability of non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) in four organs (leaves, branches, trunk and roots), the vulnerability to embolism in roots and branches, native embolism (percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC)) in branches and the presence of root rot pathogens in defoliated and non-defoliated individuals in a declining Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) population in the NE Iberian Peninsula in 2012, which included a particularly dry and warm summer. No differences were observed between defoliated and non-defoliated pines in hydraulic parameters, except for a higher vulnerability to embolism at pressures below -2 MPa in roots of defoliated pines. No differences were found between defoliation classes in branch PLC. Total NSC (TNSC, soluble sugars plus starch) values decreased during drought, particularly in leaves. Defoliation reduced TNSC levels across tree organs, especially just before (June) and during (August) drought. Root rot infection by the fungal pathogen Onnia P. Karst spp. was detected but it did not appear to be associated to tree defoliation. However, Onnia infection was associated with reduced leaf-specific hydraulic conductivity and sapwood depth, and thus contributed to hydraulic impairment, especially in defoliated pines. Infection was also associated with virtually depleted root starch reserves during and after drought in defoliated pines. Moreover, defoliated and infected trees tended to show lower basal area increment. Overall, our results show the intertwined nature of physiological mechanisms leading to drought-induced mortality and the inherent difficulty of isolating their contribution under field conditions.

Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data.

Drought-induced defoliation and long periods of near-zero gas exchange play a key role in accentuating metabolic decline of Scots pine

Drought-induced defoliation has recently been associated with the depletion of carbon reserves and increased mortality risk in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). We hypothesize that defoliated individuals are more sensitive to drought, implying that potentially higher gas exchange (per unit of leaf area) during wet periods may not compensate for their reduced photosynthetic area. We measured sap flow, needle water potentials and whole-tree hydraulic conductance to analyse the drought responses of co-occurring defoliated and nondefoliated Scots pines in northeast Spain during typical (2010) and extreme (2011) drought conditions. Defoliated Scots pines showed higher sap flow per unit leaf area during spring, but were more sensitive to summer drought, relative to nondefoliated pines. This pattern was associated with a steeper decline in soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance with drought and an enhanced sensitivity of canopy conductance to soil water availability. Near-homeostasis in midday water potentials was observed across years and defoliation classes, with minimum values of -2.5 MPa. Enhanced sensitivity to drought and prolonged periods of near-zero gas exchange were consistent with low levels of carbohydrate reserves in defoliated trees. Our results support the critical links between defoliation, water and carbon availability, and their key roles in determining tree survival and recovery under drought.