The response of tropical rainforests to drought-lessons from recent research and future prospects

Carbon fluxes and water-use efficiency in a Pinus tabuliformis plantation in Northeast China and their relationship to drought

The impact of extreme weather events on carbon fluxes and water-use efficiency (WUE) in revegetated areas under water-limited conditions is poorly understood. We analyzed changes in carbon fluxes and WUE over three years of eddy-covariance measurements in a Pinus tabuliformis plantation in Northeast China to investigate carbon fluxes and WUE responses to drought events at different time scales. Mean annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Re) were -368.48, 1042.42, and 673.94 g C m-2, respectively. Drought events increased NEE, as GPP was more sensitive to water stress than Re at different growing stages. Mean annual WUE was 2.46 g C kg-1 H2O, and plant phenology played a key role in WUE responses to drought. Water stress had negative and positive effects on daily WUE at the early and late growing stages, respectively, and daily WUE was generally insensitive to drought at the mid growing stage. A lagged effect existed in the carbon fluxes and WUE dynamics after drought events at various time scales. Water stress at the early growing stage was more important than that at other growing stages on annual carbon sequestration and WUE, as it dominated canopy growth in the current year. The annual mean normalized difference vegetation index controlled interannual variations in carbon fluxes and WUE in the plantation. Our findings contribute to the prediction of possible changes in carbon and water fluxes under climate warming in the afforested areas of Northeast China.

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo-tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

40 years of forest dynamics and tree demography in an intact tropical forest at M'Baïki in central Africa

A vast silvicultural experiment was set up in 1982 nearby the town of M'Baïki in the Central African Republic to monitor the recovery of tropical forests after disturbance. The M'Baïki experiment consists of ten 4-ha Permanent Sample Plots (PSPs) that were assigned to three silvicultural treatments in 1986 according to a random block design. In each plot, all trees with a girth at breast height greater than 30 cm were spatially located, numbered, measured, and determined botanically. Girth, mortality and newly recruited trees, were monitored almost annually over the 1982-2022 period with inventory campaigns for 35 years. The data were earlier used to fit growth and population models, to study the species composition dynamics, and the effect of silvicultural treatments on tree diversity and aboveground biomass. Here, we present new information on the forest stand structure dynamics and tree demography. The data released from this paper cover the three control plots and constitute a major contribution for further studies about the biodiversity of intact tropical forests.

Breakdown of the growth-mortality trade-off along a soil phosphorus gradient in a diverse tropical forest

An ecological paradigm predicts that plant species adapted to low resource availability grow slower and live longer than those adapted to high resource availability when growing together. We tested this by using hierarchical Bayesian analysis to quantify variations in growth and mortality of ca 40 000 individual trees from greater than 400 species in response to limiting resources in the tropical forests of Panama. In contrast to theoretical expectations of the growth-mortality paradigm, we find that tropical tree species restricted to low-phosphorus soils simultaneously achieve faster growth rates and lower mortality rates than species restricted to high-phosphorus soils. This result demonstrates that adaptation to phosphorus limitation in diverse plant communities modifies the growth-mortality trade-off, with important implications for understanding long-term ecosystem dynamics.

Deep roots mitigate drought impacts on tropical trees despite limited quantitative contribution to transpiration

Deep rooting is considered a central drought-mitigation trait with vast impact on ecosystem water cycling. Despite its importance, little is known about the overall quantitative water use via deep roots and dynamic shifts of water uptake depths with changing ambient conditions. Knowledge is especially sparse for tropical trees. Therefore, we conducted a drought, deep soil water labeling and re-wetting experiment at Biosphere 2 Tropical Rainforest. We used in situ methods to determine water stable isotope values in soil and tree water in high temporal resolution. Complemented by soil and stem water content and sap flow measurements we determined percentages and quantities of deep-water in total root water uptake dynamics of different tree species. All canopy trees had access to deep-water (max. uptake depth 3.3 m), with contributions to transpiration ranging between 21 % and 90 % during drought, when surface soil water availability was limited. Our results suggest that deep soil is an essential water source for tropical trees that delays potentially detrimental drops in plant water potentials and stem water content when surface soil water is limited and could hence mitigate the impacts of increasing drought occurrence and intensity as a consequence of climate change. Quantitatively, however, the amount of deep-water uptake was low due to the trees' reduction of sap flow during drought. Total water uptake largely followed surface soil water availability and trees switched back their uptake depth dynamically, from deep to shallow soils, following rainfall. Total transpiration fluxes were hence largely driven by precipitation input.

Physical and chemical properties of Coarse Woody Debris submitted to the natural process of decomposition in a Secondary Atlantic Forest Fragment in Brazil

Coarse Woody Debris (CWDs) are constantly exposed to the natural decomposition process of wood, which can lead to a change in its physical-chemical properties. However, these changes have not yet been fully elucidated, requiring further studies to help to understand the effect of this process on CWDs degradation. Thus, the objectives of this study were: (i) verify if the decomposition affects the physical-chemical properties of the CWDs; (ii) verify if the structural chemical composition of the CWDs is altered as a function of decomposition, using immediate chemical and thermogravimetric analysis. Wood samples were collected from the CWDs to carry out these analyses, considering pieces with diameters ≥ 5 cm separated into 4 decay classes. The results indicated that the average apparent density decreased as a function of the increase of CWDs decomposition (0.62-0.37 g cm^-3). The averages contents of Carbon and Nitrogen suffered less impact with the increase of CWDs decompositions, ranging from 49.66 to 48.80% and 0.52 to 0.58%, respectively. Immediate chemical and thermogravimetric analysis indicated a loss of holocelluloses and extractives and an increase in the concentration of lignin and ash throughout the decomposition process. The weight loss analyzed by thermogravimetric analysis was greater for less decomposed CWDs and with larger diameters. The use of these analyzes removes the subjectivity of CWDs decay classes, reducing the number of tests to determine CWDs physical-chemical properties and increasing the studies accuracy focused on the carbon cycle of these materials.

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite-derived vegetation index data and supporting tree-ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi-arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region- and biome-dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non-dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate-specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

Water uptake patterns of tropical canopy trees in Borneo: species-specific and temporal variation and relationships with aboveground traits

Root water uptake depth and its temporal variation are important determinants of tree mortality, resource partitioning and drought resistance; however, their effects on tropical trees remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated interspecific differences in water uptake depth and its temporal variation using stable isotope analysis and examined the relationships between water uptake depth and aboveground traits in a humid aseasonal tropical rainforest in Borneo. Species-specific differences in water uptake depth were examined for six dominant dipterocarp species. Temporal variation in water uptake depth for various canopy trees was assessed in three periods with different soil moisture conditions. We then examined the relationships between water uptake depth and aboveground traits including wood density, maximum tree height, flowering frequency and growth rate. Dipterocarpus globosus appeared to be more reliant on deep water resources than the other dipterocarp species. Water uptake from the soil layers varied among the three sampling periods. Trees generally utilized deeper soil water during the second driest sampling period, when temperatures were lowest. During the driest and wettest sampling periods, species with higher flowering frequencies tended to preferentially uptake deep soil water. These results suggest that low temperature and soil moisture promote increased deep soil water uptake in the study region. Dynamic relationships between water uptake patterns and aboveground tree traits may be related to resource partitioning among co-existing species.

Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene

Tropical forests are complex systems containing myriad interactions and feedbacks with their biotic and abiotic environments, but as the world changes fast, the future of these ecosystems becomes increasingly uncertain. In particular, global stressors may unbalance the feedbacks that stabilize tropical forests, allowing other feedbacks to propel undesired changes in the whole ecosystem. Here, we review the scientific literature across various fields, compiling known interactions of tropical forests with their environment, including the global climate, rainfall, aerosols, fire, soils, fauna, and human activities. We identify 170 individual interactions among 32 elements that we present as a global tropical forest network, including countless feedback loops that may emerge from different combinations of interactions. We illustrate our findings with three cases involving urgent sustainability issues: (1) wildfires in wetlands of South America; (2) forest encroachment in African savanna landscapes; and (3) synergistic threats to the peatland forests of Borneo. Our findings reveal an unexplored world of feedbacks that shape the dynamics of tropical forests. The interactions and feedbacks identified here can guide future qualitative and quantitative research on the complexities of tropical forests, allowing societies to manage the nonlinear responses of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Seasonal variation of leaf thickness: An overlooked component of functional trait variability

The dry and wet seasons in the Neotropics have strong effects on soil water and nutrient availability, as well as on forest dynamics. Despite these major effects on forest ecology, little is known on how leaf traits vary throughout the seasons in tropical rainforest trees. Here, we investigated the influence of seasonal variations in climate and soil characteristics on leaf trait variation in two tropical tree species. We measured two leaf traits, thickness and water mass per area, in 401 individuals of two species of Symphonia (Clusiaceae) in the Paracou research station in French Guiana tropical lowland rainforest. We found a significant effect of seasonal variation on these two leaf traits. Soil relative extractable water was a strong environmental predictor of leaf trait variation in response to seasonal variation. Reduced soil water availability during the dry season was associated with increased leaf thickness and water mass per area, possibly as a result of stomatal closure. Our findings advocate the need to account for environmental seasonality when studying leaf traits in seasonal ecosystems such as tropical forests.

Warming Responses of Leaf Morphology Are Highly Variable among Tropical Tree Species

Leaf morphological traits vary along climate gradients, but it is currently unclear to what extent this results from acclimation rather than adaptation. Knowing so is important for predicting the functioning of long-lived organisms, such as trees, in a rapidly changing climate. We investigated the leaf morphological warming responses of 18 tropical tree species with early (ES) abd late (LS) successional strategies, planted at three sites along an elevation gradient from 2400 m a.s.l. (15.2 °C mean temperature) to 1300 m a.s.l. (20.6 °C mean temperature) in Rwanda. Leaf size expressed as leaf area (LA) and leaf mass per area (LMA) decreased, while leaf width-to-length ratio (W/L) increased with warming, but only for one third to half of the species. While LA decreased in ES species, but mostly not in LS species, changes in LMA and leaf W/L were common in both successional groups. ES species had lower LMA and higher LA and leaf W/L compared to LS species. Values of LMA and LA of juvenile trees in this study were mostly similar to corresponding data on four mature tree species in another elevation-gradient study in Rwanda, indicating that our results are applicable also to mature forest trees. We conclude that leaf morphological responses to warming differ greatly between both successional groups and individual species, with potential consequences for species competitiveness and community composition in a warmer climate.

Periconnection: A novel macroecological effect in snow cover phenology modulating ecosystem productivity over upper Northern Hemisphere

Snow cover plays an important role in maintaining ecosystems. However, knowledge on how snow cover phenology (SP) modulates ecosystem productivity (EP), especially for the lower- and higher-productivity ecosystems, is limited yet. The situation becomes more embarrassed when asking a more in-depth question as to the macroecological pattern of SP modulating EP - does this process act with the neighborhood effect common in ecology or any other? To answer this question, we proposed a new concept of "periconnection", by following the way of defining "teleconnection" but also exploring the potential effect from the surrounding sites. In the case study of two published data of plant dynamics (1999-2013) and SP (2001-2014), we made a series of new findings as follows. Over upper Northern Hemisphere, the lower- and higher-productivity ecosystems presented weaker trends of productivity increasing than the entire ecosystems did. But for the ecosystems of all these three types, their productivity was all more sensitive to the snow-onset than -end SP. Further, the interannual variations of their productivity was all more modulated by the SP around - the neighborhood effect, in principle, was detected but also with other novel traits. Such modulations occurred more to north in North America while more to south in North Eurasia - termed directional effect. The first two inferences added the common knowledge of SP modulating EP, while the in-depth question was solved with the last two coherent effects, which compose a new macroecological beyond-neighborhood effect - periconnection. As a creative theoretical term and its principle framework in macroecology, this basic concept is of referencing implication on extensively advancing various sphere-interaction fields at other scales.

Drought stress recovery of hydraulic and photochemical processes in Neotropical tree saplings

Climate models predict an increase in the severity and the frequency of droughts. Tropical forests are among the ecosystems that could be highly impacted by these droughts. Here, we explore how hydraulic and photochemical processes respond to drought stress and re-watering. We conducted a pot experiment on saplings of five tree species. Before the onset of drought, we measured a set of hydraulic traits, including minimum leaf conductance, leaf embolism resistance and turgor loss point. During drought stress, we monitored traits linked to leaf hydraulic functioning (leaf water potential (ψmd) and stomatal conductance (gs)) and traits linked to leaf photochemical functioning (maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) and maximum electron transport rate (ETRmax)) at different wilting stages. After re-watering, the same traits were measured after 3, 7 and 14 days. Hydraulic trait values decreased faster than photochemical trait values. After re-watering, the values of the four traits recovered at different rates. Fv/Fm recovered very fast close to their initial values only 3 days after re-watering. This was followed by ETRmax, Ψmd and gs. Finally, we show that species with large stomatal and leaf safety margin and low πtlp are not strongly impacted by drought, whereas they have a low recovery on photochemical efficiency. These results demonstrate that πtlp, stomatal and leaf safety margin are a good indicators of plant responses to drought stress and also to recovery for photochemical efficiency.

Meta-Analysis in Using Satellite Precipitation Products for Drought Monitoring: Lessons Learnt and Way Forward

In recent years, satellite precipitation products (SPPs) have emerged as an essential source of data and information. This work intends to summarize lessons learnt on using SPPs for drought monitoring and to propose ways forward in this field of research. A thorough literature review was conducted to review three aspects: effects of climate type, data record length, and time scale on SPPs performance. The conducted meta-analysis showed that the performance of SPPs for drought monitoring largely depends upon the climate type of the location and length of the data record. SPPs drought monitoring performance was shown to be higher in temperate and tropical climates than in dry and continental ones. SPPs were found to perform better with an increase in data record length. From a general standpoint, SPPs offer great potential for drought monitoring, but the performance of SPPs needs to be improved for operational purposes. The present study discusses blending SPPs with in situ data and other lessons learned, as well as future directions of using SPPs for drought applications.

Increased mortality of tropical tree seedlings during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño

As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent because of global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño-related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long-term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community-wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought-sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño-related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through their effects on early life stages.

Effects of changes in throughfall on soil GHG fluxes under a mature temperate forest, northeastern China

Climate change scenarios predict a change in the rainfall regimes for this current century, which has different impacts on soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. However, how changes in annual rainfall affect annual GHG fluxes of forest soils remain unknown. A six-year field experiment with -25% and -50% throughfall (TF) and +25% TF manipulation was performed to explore the mechanisms involving GHG fluxes under a mature temperate forest, northeastern China and to work out whether the TF effect sizes on annual soil GHG fluxes vary with dry and wet years. The results showed that both -25% TF and -50% TF treatments depressed annual soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions but increased annual soil methane (CH₄) uptake. A contrary pattern of annual soil GHG fluxes was observed in the +25% TF treatment. When annual TF input was decreased by 100 mm, annual soil N₂O and CO₂ emissions were decreased by 18.1 ± 3.1 mg N m^-2 and by 39.4 ± 6.1 g C m^-2 during the growing season, respectively, and annual soil CH₄ uptake was increased by 11.5 ± 3.4 mg C m^-2. Both -25% TF and -50% TF treatments reduced annual soil dissolved organic C (DOC) leaching by 29.3% and 45.6% and dissolved total N (DN) leaching by 30.8% and 39.6%, respectively. Contrary to annual soil N₂O and CO₂ emissions, annual soil CH₄ uptake during the growing season significantly decreased with an increase in the annual leaching fluxes of soil DOC, inorganic N, and DN. Besides soil moisture and temperature and pH, soil GHG fluxes under manipulating TF condition were regulated by soil labile C and N status. Our findings indicated that the TF effect sizes on both annual GHG fluxes and net annual GHG balance (GWP) of forest soils varied with dry and wet years in northeastern China. The results highlight the importance of altered annual rainfall in regulating annual soil GHG fluxes and the GWP in temperate forests under global climate change.

Ecosystem Productivity and Evapotranspiration Are Tightly Coupled in Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda L.) Plantations along the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern U.S

Forest water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET), is an important variable to understand the coupling between water and carbon cycles, and to assess resource use, ecosystem resilience, and commodity production. Here, we determined WUE for managed loblolly pine plantations over the course of a rotation on the coastal plain of North Carolina in the eastern U.S. We found that the forest annual GPP, ET, and WUE increased until age ten, which stabilized thereafter. WUE varied annually (2–44%), being higher at young plantation (YP, 3.12 ± 1.20 g C kg−1 H2O d−1) compared to a mature plantation (MP, 2.92 ± 0.45 g C kg−1 H2O d−1), with no distinct seasonal patterns. Stand age was strongly correlated with ET (R2 = 0.71) and GPP (R2 = 0.64). ET and GPP were tightly coupled (R2 = 0.86). Radiation and air temperature significantly affected GPP and ET (R2 = 0.71 − R2 = 0.82) at a monthly scale, but not WUE. Drought affected WUE (R2 = 0.35) more than ET (R2 = 0.25) or GPP (R2 = 0.07). A drought enhanced GPP in MP (19%) and YP (11%), but reduced ET 7% and 19% in MP and YP, respectively, resulting in a higher WUE (27–32%). Minor seasonal and interannual variation in forest WUE of MP (age > 10) suggested that forest functioning became stable as stands matured. We conclude that carbon and water cycles in loblolly pine plantations are tightly coupled, with different characteristics in different ages and hydrologic regimes. A stable WUE suggests that the pine ecosystem productivity can be readily predicted from ET and vice versa. The tradeoffs between water and carbon cycling should be recognized in forest management to achieve multiple ecosystem services (i.e., water supply and carbon sequestration).

Modeling canopy interception under drought conditions: The relevance of evaporation and extra sources of energy

Modeling canopy interception is fundamental for understanding the forests' role in local and regional hydrology. In this study, canopy interception (CI), throughfall (TF), and stemflow (SF) were evaluated for a semi-deciduous Atlantic Forest (AFR) from 2013 to 2019, where a prolonged dry period occurred. The Gash and Liu models were analyzed in detail to determine the most appropriate for modeling CI throughout drought conditions. Thus, the climatic parameters were retrieved annually by a modified TF-based method (E_I%), whereas the structural parameters represented the entire period. The contribution of the energy stored in the forest (i.e. air and biomass; Q) to CI was also assessed in the AFR stand. Both models performed well when using E_I%, as the Gash model overestimated CI by 71 mm (4.6%), whereas the Liu model underestimated it by only 13 mm (0.85%). This performance is due to an increased Q and turbulent mechanisms (such as advection and strong updrafts) that occur in drought conditions and are indirectly accounted for in E_I%. However, the Liu model stood out for modeling CI under a prolonged dry period, as the exponential wetting approach better represents the complex canopies of the semi-deciduous forests. Thus, we recommend the Liu model and additional energy sources when dealing with prolonged droughts, as in the case of climate change scenarios projected to the studied region.

Resistance and resilience of soil prokaryotic communities in response to prolonged drought in a tropical forest

Global climate changes such as prolonged duration and intensity of drought can lead to adverse ecological consequences in forests. Currently little is known about soil microbial community responses to such drought regimes in tropical forests. In this study, we examined the resistance and resilience of topsoil prokaryotic communities to a prolongation of the dry season in terms of diversity, community structure and co-occurrence patterns in a French Guianan tropical forest. Through excluding rainfall during and after the dry season, a simulated prolongation of the dry season by five months was compared to controls. Our results show that prokaryotic communities increasingly diverged from controls with the progression of rain exclusion. Furthermore, prolonged drought significantly affected microbial co-occurrence networks. However, both the composition and co-occurrence networks of soil prokaryotic communities immediately ceased to differ from controls when precipitation throughfall returned. This study thus suggests modest resistance but high resilience of microbial communities to a prolonged drought in tropical rainforest soils.

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade-off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade-off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

In situ resistance, not immigration, supports invertebrate community resilience to drought intensification in a Neotropical ecosystem

While future climate scenarios predict declines in precipitations in many regions of the world, little is known of the mechanisms underlying community resilience to prolonged dry seasons, especially in 'naïve' Neotropical rainforests. Predictions of community resilience to intensifying drought are complicated by the fact that the underlying mechanisms are mediated by species' tolerance and resistance traits, as well as rescue through dispersal from source patches. We examined the contribution of in situ tolerance-resistance and immigration to community resilience, following drought events that ranged from the ambient norm to IPCC scenarios and extreme events. We used rainshelters above rainwater-filled bromeliads of French Guiana to emulate a gradient of drought intensity (from 1 to 3.6 times the current number of consecutive days without rainfall), and we analysed the post-drought dynamics of the taxonomic and functional community structure of aquatic invertebrates to these treatments when immigration is excluded (by netting bromeliads) or permitted (no nets). Drought intensity negatively affected invertebrate community resistance, but had a positive influence on community recovery during the post-drought phase. After droughts of 1 to 1.4 times the current intensities, the overall invertebrate abundance recovered within invertebrate life cycle durations (up to 2 months). Shifts in taxonomic composition were more important after longer droughts, but overall, community composition showed recovery towards baseline states. The non-random patterns of changes in functional community structure indicated that deterministic processes like environmental filtering of traits drive community re-assembly patterns after a drought event. Community resilience mostly relied on in situ tolerance-resistance traits. A rescue effect of immigration after a drought event was weak and mostly apparent under extreme droughts. Under climate change scenarios of drought intensification in Neotropical regions, community and ecosystem resilience could primarily depend on the persistence of suitable habitats and on the resistance traits of species, while metacommunity dynamics could make a minor contribution to ecosystem recovery. Climate change adaptation should thus aim at identifying and preserving local conditions that foster in situ resistance and the buffering effects of habitat features.

Small tropical forest trees have a greater capacity to adjust carbon metabolism to long-term drought than large canopy trees

The response of small understory trees to long-term drought is vital in determining the future composition, carbon stocks and dynamics of tropical forests. Long-term drought is, however, also likely to expose understory trees to increased light availability driven by drought-induced mortality. Relatively little is known about the potential for understory trees to adjust their physiology to both decreasing water and increasing light availability. We analysed data on maximum photosynthetic capacity (J_max , V_cmax ), leaf respiration (R_leaf ), leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf thickness and leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations from 66 small trees across 12 common genera at the world's longest running tropical rainfall exclusion experiment and compared responses to those from 61 surviving canopy trees. Small trees increased J_max , V_cmax , R_leaf and LMA (71, 29, 32, 15% respectively) in response to the drought treatment, but leaf thickness and leaf nutrient concentrations did not change. Small trees were significantly more responsive than large canopy trees to the drought treatment, suggesting greater phenotypic plasticity and resilience to prolonged drought, although differences among taxa were observed. Our results highlight that small tropical trees have greater capacity to respond to ecosystem level changes and have the potential to regenerate resilient forests following future droughts.

Convergent evolution of tree hydraulic traits in Amazonian habitats: implications for community assemblage and vulnerability to drought

Amazonian droughts are increasing in frequency and severity. However, little is known about how this may influence species-specific vulnerability to drought across different ecosystem types. We measured 16 functional traits for 16 congeneric species from six families and eight genera restricted to floodplain, swamp, white-sand or plateau forests of Central Amazonia. We investigated whether habitat distributions can be explained by species hydraulic strategies, and if habitat specialists differ in their vulnerability to embolism that would make water transport difficult during drought periods. We found strong functional differences among species. Nonflooded species had higher wood specific gravity and lower stomatal density, whereas flooded species had wider vessels, and higher leaf and xylem hydraulic conductivity. The P₅₀ values (water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) of nonflooded species were significantly more negative than flooded species. However, we found no differences in hydraulic safety margin among species, suggesting that all trees may be equally likely to experience hydraulic failure during severe droughts. Water availability imposes a strong selection leading to differentiation of plant hydraulic strategies among species and may underlie patterns of adaptive radiation in many tropical tree genera. Our results have important implications for modeling species distribution and resilience under future climate scenarios.

Temperature rising would slow down tropical forest dynamic in the Guiana Shield

Increasing evidence shows that the functioning of the tropical forest biome is intimately related to the climate variability with some variables such as annual precipitation, temperature or seasonal water stress identified as key drivers of ecosystem dynamics. How tropical tree communities will respond to the future climate change is hard to predict primarily because several demographic processes act together to shape the forest ecosystem general behavior. To overcome this limitation, we used a joint individual-based model to simulate, over the next century, a tropical forest community experiencing the climate change expected in the Guiana Shield. The model is climate dependent: temperature, precipitation and water stress are used as predictors of the joint growth and mortality rates. We ran simulations for the next century using predictions of the IPCC 5AR, building three different climate scenarios (optimistic RCP2.6, intermediate, pessimistic RCP8.5) and a control (current climate). The basal area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, tree growth and mortality rates were then computed as summary statistics to characterize the resulting forest ecosystem. Whatever the scenario, all ecosystem process and structure variables exhibited decreasing values as compared to the control. A sensitivity analysis identified the temperature as the strongest climate driver of this behavior, highlighting a possible temperature-driven drop of 40% in average forest growth. This conclusion is alarming, as temperature rises have been consensually predicted by all climate scenarios of the IPCC 5AR. Our study highlights the potential slow-down danger that tropical forests will face in the Guiana Shield during the next century.

Comparative analysis of two sister Erythrophleum species (Leguminosae) reveal contrasting transcriptome-wide responses to early drought stress

With the ongoing climate change, African rainforests are expected to experience severe drought events in the future. In Africa, the tropical genus Erythrophleum (Fabaceae) includes two forest sister timber tree species displaying contrasting geographical distributions. Erythrophleum ivorense is adapted to wet evergreen Guineo-Congolian forests, whereas E. suaveolens occurs in a wider range of climates, being found in moist dense forests but also in gallery forests under a relatively drier climate. This geographical distribution pattern suggests that the two species might cope differently to drought at the genomic level. Yet, the genetic basis of tolerance response to drought stress in both species is still uncharacterized. To bridge this gap, we performed an RNA-seq approach on seedlings from each species to monitor their transcriptional responses at different levels of drought stress (0, 2 and 6 weeks after stopping watering seedlings). Monitoring of wilting symptoms revealed that E. suaveolens displayed an earlier phenotypic response to drought stress than E. ivorense. At the transcriptomic level, results revealed 2020 (1204 down-regulated/816 up-regulated) and 1495 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in response to drought stress from a total of 67,432 and 66,605 contigs assembled in E. ivorense and E. suaveolens, respectively. After identifying 30,374 orthologs between species, we found that only 7 of them were DEGs shared between species, while 587 and 458 were differentially expressed only in E. ivorense or E. suaveolens, respectively. GO and KEGG enrichment analysis revealed that the two species differ in terms of significantly regulated pathways as well as the number and expression profile of DEGs (Up/Down) associated with each pathway in the two stress stages. Our results suggested that the two studied species react differently to drought. E. suaveolens seems displaying a prompt response to drought at its early stage strengthened by the down-regulation of many DEGs encoding for signaling and metabolism-related pathways. A considerable up-regulation of these pathways was also found in E. ivorense at the late stage of drought, suggesting this species may be a late responder. Overall, our data may serve as basis for further understanding the genetic control of drought tolerance in tropical trees and favor the selection of crucial genes for genetically enhancing drought resistance.

Drier tropical forests are susceptible to functional changes in response to a long-term drought

Climatic changes have profound effects on the distribution of biodiversity, but untangling the links between climatic change and ecosystem functioning is challenging, particularly in high diversity systems such as tropical forests. Tropical forests may also show different responses to a changing climate, with baseline climatic conditions potentially inducing differences in the strength and timing of responses to droughts. Trait-based approaches provide an opportunity to link functional composition, ecosystem function and environmental changes. We demonstrate the power of such approaches by presenting a novel analysis of long-term responses of different tropical forest to climatic changes along a rainfall gradient. We explore how key ecosystem's biogeochemical properties have shifted over time as a consequence of multi-decadal drying. Notably, we find that drier tropical forests have increased their deciduous species abundance and generally changed more functionally than forests growing in wetter conditions, suggesting an enhanced ability to adapt ecologically to a drying environment.

Termites mitigate the effects of drought in tropical rainforest

Termites perform key ecological functions in tropical ecosystems, are strongly affected by variation in rainfall, and respond negatively to habitat disturbance. However, it is not known how the projected increase in frequency and severity of droughts in tropical rainforests will alter termite communities and the maintenance of ecosystem processes. Using a large-scale termite suppression experiment, we found that termite activity and abundance increased during drought in a Bornean forest. This increase resulted in accelerated litter decomposition, elevated soil moisture, greater soil nutrient heterogeneity, and higher seedling survival rates during the extreme El Niño drought of 2015–2016. Our work shows how an invertebrate group enhances ecosystem resistance to drought, providing evidence that the dual stressors of climate change and anthropogenic shifts in biotic communities will have various negative consequences for the maintenance of rainforest ecosystems.

Interannual and Seasonal Variations in Ecosystem Transpiration and Water Use Efficiency in a Tropical Rainforest

Warmer and drier climates over Amazonia have been predicted for the next century with expected changes in regional water and carbon cycles. We examined the impact of interannual and seasonal variations in climate conditions on ecosystem-level evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency (WUE) to determine key climatic drivers and anticipate the response of these ecosystems to climate change. We used daily climate and eddyflux data recorded at the Guyaflux site in French Guiana from 2004 to 2014. ET and WUE exhibited weak interannual variability. The main climatic driver of ET and WUE was global radiation (Rg), but relative extractable water (REW) and soil temperature (Ts) did also contribute. At the seasonal scale, ET and WUE showed a modal pattern driven by Rg, with maximum values for ET in July and August and for WUE at the beginning of the year. By removing radiation effects during water depleted periods, we showed that soil water stress strongly reduced ET. In contrast, drought conditions enhanced radiation-normalized WUE in almost all the years, suggesting that the lack of soil water had a more severe effect on ecosystem evapotranspiration than on photosynthesis. Our results are of major concern for tropical ecosystem modeling because they suggest that under future climate conditions, tropical forest ecosystems will be able to simultaneously adjust CO2 and H2O fluxes. Yet, for tropical forests under future conditions, the direction of change in WUE at the ecosystem scale is hard to predict, since the impact of radiation on WUE is counterbalanced by adjustments to soil water limitations. Developing mechanistic models that fully integrate the processes associated with CO2 and H2O flux control should help researchers understand and simulate future functional adjustments in these ecosystems.

Vulnerability of Amazonian forests to repeated droughts

Extreme droughts have been recurrent in the Amazon over the past decades, causing socio-economic and environmental impacts. Here, we investigate the vulnerability of Amazonian forests, both undisturbed and human-modified, to repeated droughts. We defined vulnerability as a measure of (i) exposure, which is the degree to which these ecosystems were exposed to droughts, and (ii) its sensitivity, measured as the degree to which the drought has affected remote sensing-derived forest greenness. The exposure was calculated by assessing the meteorological drought, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD), which is related to vegetation water stress, from 1981 to 2016. The sensitivity was assessed based on the enhanced vegetation index anomalies (AEVI), derived from the newly available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC) product, from 2003 to 2016, which is indicative of forest's photosynthetic capacity. We estimated that 46% of the Brazilian Amazon biome was under severe to extreme drought in 2015/2016 as measured by the SPI, compared with 16% and 8% for the 2009/2010 and 2004/2005 droughts, respectively. The most recent drought (2015/2016) affected the largest area since the drought of 1981. Droughts tend to increase the variance of the photosynthetic capacity of Amazonian forests as based on the minimum and maximum AEVI analysis. However, the area showing a reduction in photosynthetic capacity prevails in the signal, reaching more than 400 000 km2 of forests, four orders of magnitude larger than areas with AEVI enhancement. Moreover, the intensity of the negative AEVI steadily increased from 2005 to 2016. These results indicate that during the analysed period drought impacts were being exacerbated through time. Forests in the twenty-first century are becoming more vulnerable to droughts, with larger areas intensively and negatively responding to water shortage in the region.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Causes of reduced leaf-level photosynthesis during strong El Niño drought in a Central Amazon forest

Sustained drought and concomitant high temperature may reduce photosynthesis and cause tree mortality. Possible causes of reduced photosynthesis include stomatal closure and biochemical inhibition, but their relative roles are unknown in Amazon trees during strong drought events. We assessed the effects of the recent (2015) strong El Niño drought on leaf-level photosynthesis of Central Amazon trees via these two mechanisms. Through four seasons of 2015, we measured leaf gas exchange, chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters, chlorophyll concentration, and nutrient content in leaves of 57 upper canopy and understory trees of a lowland terra firme forest on well-drained infertile oxisol. Photosynthesis decreased 28% in the upper canopy and 17% in understory trees during the extreme dry season of 2015, relative to other 2015 seasons and was also lower than the climatically normal dry season of the following non-El Niño year. Photosynthesis reduction under extreme drought and high temperature in the 2015 dry season was related only to stomatal closure in both upper canopy and understory trees, and not to chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters, chlorophyll, or leaf nutrient concentration. The distinction is important because stomatal closure is a transient regulatory response that can reverse when water becomes available, whereas the other responses reflect more permanent changes or damage to the photosynthetic apparatus. Photosynthesis decrease due to stomatal closure during the 2015 extreme dry season was followed 2 months later by an increase in photosynthesis as rains returned, indicating a margin of resilience to one-off extreme climatic events in Amazonian forests.

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2-7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km² ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.

Plant Hydraulic Trait Covariation: A Global Meta-Analysis to Reduce Degrees of Freedom in Trait-Based Hydrologic Models

Current vegetation modeling strategies use broad categorizations of plants to estimate transpiration and biomass functions. A significant source of model error stems from vegetation categorizations that are mostly taxonomical with no basis in plant hydraulic strategy and response to changing environmental conditions. Here, we compile hydraulic traits from 355 species around the world to determine trait covariations in order to represent hydraulic strategies. Simple and stepwise regression analyses demonstrate the interconnectedness of multiple vegetative hydraulic traits, specifically, traits defining hydraulic conductivity and vulnerability to embolism with wood density and isohydricity. Drought sensitivity is strongly (Adjusted R2 = 0.52, p < 0.02) predicted by a stepwise linear model combining rooting depth, wood density, and isohydricity. Drought tolerance increased with increasing wood density and anisohydric response, but with decreasing rooting depth. The unexpected response to rooting depth may be due to other tradeoffs within the hydraulic system. Rooting depth was able to be predicted from sapwood specific conductivity and the water potential at 50% loss of conductivity. Interestingly, the influences of biome or growth form do not increase the accuracy of the drought tolerance model and were able to be omitted. Multiple regression analysis revealed 3D trait spaces and tradeoff axes along which species’ hydraulic strategies can be analyzed. These numerical trait spaces can reduce the necessary input to and parameterization of plant hydraulics modules, while increasing the physical representativeness of such simulations.

Coordination and trade-offs among hydraulic safety, efficiency and drought avoidance traits in Amazonian rainforest canopy tree species

Predicting responses of tropical forests to climate change-type drought is challenging because of high species diversity. Detailed characterization of tropical tree hydraulic physiology is necessary to evaluate community drought vulnerability and improve model parameterization. Here, we measured xylem hydraulic conductivity (hydraulic efficiency), xylem vulnerability curves (hydraulic safety), sapwood pressure-volume curves (drought avoidance) and wood density on emergent branches of 14 common species of Eastern Amazonian canopy trees in Paracou, French Guiana across species with the densest and lightest wood in the plot. Our objectives were to evaluate relationships among hydraulic traits to identify strategies and test the ability of easy-to-measure traits as proxies for hard-to-measure hydraulic traits. Xylem efficiency was related to capacitance, sapwood water content and turgor loss point, and other drought avoidance traits, but not to xylem safety (P₅₀ ). Wood density was correlated (r = -0.57 to -0.97) with sapwood pressure-volume traits, forming an axis of hydraulic strategy variation. In contrast to drier sites where hydraulic safety plays a greater role, tropical trees in this humid tropical site varied along an axis with low wood density, high xylem efficiency and high capacitance at one end of the spectrum, and high wood density and low turgor loss point at the other.

Drought drives rapid shifts in tropical rainforest soil biogeochemistry and greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change models predict more frequent and severe droughts in the humid tropics. How drought will impact tropical forest carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics is poorly understood. Here we report the effects of the severe 2015 Caribbean drought on soil moisture, oxygen, phosphorus (P), and greenhouse gas emissions in a humid tropical forest in Puerto Rico. Drought significantly decreases inorganic P concentrations, an element commonly limiting to net primary productivity in tropical forests, and significantly increases organic P. High-frequency greenhouse gas measurements show varied impacts across topography. Soil carbon dioxide emissions increase by 60% on slopes and 163% in valleys. Methane (CH₄) consumption increases significantly during drought, but high CH₄ fluxes post-drought offset this sink after 7 weeks. The rapid response and slow recovery to drought suggest tropical forest biogeochemistry is more sensitive to climate change than previously believed, with potentially large direct and indirect consequences for regional and global carbon cycles.

Drought impacts on tropical forest soil carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics are poorly understood. Here, the authors investigate the impacts of the 2015 drought in a forest in Puerto Rico and find that it caused shifts in soil carbon dioxide and methane emissions and led to a decrease in available phosphorus.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Pinus taeda forest growth predictions in the 21st century vary with site mean annual temperature and site quality

Climate projections from 20 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) were used with the 3-PG model to predict the future productivity and water use of planted loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) growing across the southeastern United States. Predictions were made using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. These represent scenarios in which total radiative forcing stabilizes before 2100 (RCP 4.5) or continues increasing throughout the century (RCP 8.5). Thirty-six sites evenly distributed across the native range of the species were used in the analysis. These sites represent a range in current mean annual temperature (14.9-21.6°C) and precipitation (1,120-1,680 mm/year). The site index of each site, which is a measure of growth potential, was varied to represent different levels of management. The 3-PG model predicted that aboveground biomass growth and net primary productivity will increase by 10%-40% in many parts of the region in the future. At cooler sites, the relative growth increase was greater than at warmer sites. By running the model with the baseline [CO₂ ] or the anticipated elevated [CO₂ ], the effect of CO₂ on growth was separated from that of other climate factors. The growth increase at warmer sites was due almost entirely to elevated [CO₂ ]. The growth increase at cooler sites was due to a combination of elevated [CO₂ ] and increased air temperature. Low site index stands had a greater relative increase in growth under the climate change scenarios than those with a high site index. Water use increased in proportion to increases in leaf area and productivity but precipitation was still adequate, based on the downscaled GCM climate projections. We conclude that an increase in productivity can be expected for a large majority of the planted loblolly pine stands in the southeastern United States during this century.

Evaluating multiple causes of persistent low microwave backscatter from Amazon forests after the 2005 drought

Amazonia has experienced large-scale regional droughts that affect forest productivity and biomass stocks. Space-borne remote sensing provides basin-wide data on impacts of meteorological anomalies, an important complement to relatively limited ground observations across the Amazon’s vast and remote humid tropical forests. Morning overpass QuikScat Ku-band microwave backscatter from the forest canopy was anomalously low during the 2005 drought, relative to the full instrument record of 1999–2009, and low morning backscatter persisted for 2006–2009, after which the instrument failed. The persistent low backscatter has been suggested to be indicative of increased forest vulnerability to future drought. To better ascribe the cause of the low post-drought backscatter, we analyzed multiyear, gridded remote sensing data sets of precipitation, land surface temperature, forest cover and forest cover loss, and microwave backscatter over the 2005 drought region in the southwestern Amazon Basin (4°-12°S, 66°-76°W) and in adjacent 8°x10° regions to the north and east. We found moderate to weak correlations with the spatial distribution of persistent low backscatter for variables related to three groups of forest impacts: the 2005 drought itself, loss of forest cover, and warmer and drier dry seasons in the post-drought vs. the pre-drought years. However, these variables explained only about one quarter of the variability in depressed backscatter across the southwestern drought region. Our findings indicate that drought impact is a complex phenomenon and that better understanding can only come from more extensive ground data and/or analysis of frequent, spatially-comprehensive, high-resolution data or imagery before and after droughts.

Climate drivers of the Amazon forest greening

Our limited understanding of the climate controls on tropical forest seasonality is one of the biggest sources of uncertainty in modeling climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Combining leaf production, litterfall and climate observations from satellite and ground data in the Amazon forest, we show that seasonal variation in leaf production is largely triggered by climate signals, specifically, insolation increase (70.4% of the total area) and precipitation increase (29.6%). Increase of insolation drives leaf growth in the absence of water limitation. For these non-water-limited forests, the simultaneous leaf flush occurs in a sufficient proportion of the trees to be observed from space. While tropical cycles are generally defined in terms of dry or wet season, we show that for a large part of Amazonia the increase in insolation triggers the visible progress of leaf growth, just like during spring in temperate forests. The dependence of leaf growth initiation on climate seasonality may result in a higher sensitivity of these ecosystems to changes in climate than previously thought.

Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO2 sink changes to temperature

Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and process-based models to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.

Carbon recovery dynamics following disturbance by selective logging in Amazonian forests

When 2 Mha of Amazonian forests are disturbed by selective logging each year, more than 90 Tg of carbon (C) is emitted to the atmosphere. Emissions are then counterbalanced by forest regrowth. With an original modelling approach, calibrated on a network of 133 permanent forest plots (175 ha total) across Amazonia, we link regional differences in climate, soil and initial biomass with survivors' and recruits' C fluxes to provide Amazon-wide predictions of post-logging C recovery. We show that net aboveground C recovery over 10 years is higher in the Guiana Shield and in the west (21 ±3 Mg C ha-1) than in the south (12 ±3 Mg C ha-1) where environmental stress is high (low rainfall, high seasonality). We highlight the key role of survivors in the forest regrowth and elaborate a comprehensive map of post-disturbance C recovery potential in Amazonia.