Designing a food tax to impact food-related non-communicable diseases: the case of Chile

Association between higher consumption of ultra-processed foods and risk of diabetes and its complications: A systematic review & updated meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Recent epidemiologic studies on the association between higher consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and risk of incident diabetes have reported conflicting results in populations worldwide. We conducted an updated systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the magnitude of this association.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched (from 2009 to November 14, 2024) for prospective cohort studies reporting data on the association between UPF intake (defined by the NOVA classification) and the risk of incident diabetes or its complications in adults (>18 years). Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects modelling to obtain pooled hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs), and the GRADE approach was applied to evaluate the certainty of evidence.

RESULTS

We included 14 prospective cohort studies with a total of 692,508 participants. The highest UPF consumption was significantly associated with an increased risk of diabetes (n = 9 studies; HR 1.24, 95 % CI 1.14 to 1.34, I2 = 69 %) compared with the lowest UPF intake (very low certainty of evidence). Subgroup analysis showed that studies published in 2024 had a smaller effect size compared with earlier studies. There were no significant differences between subgroups based on study location, duration of follow-up, method and frequency of dietary intake assessment, and risk of bias. Sensitivity analyses did not change these findings. Each 10 % increase in total UPF consumption was associated with a 13 % (n = 4 studies; HR 1.13, 95 % CI 1.08 to 1.18, I2 = 37 %) increased risk of diabetes. Preliminary data from 4 cohort studies also suggest that high UPF consumption may be associated with complications in diabetic patients, including microvascular/cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and mortality.

CONCLUSION

UPF consumption is associated with a higher risk of incident diabetes and may contribute to its complications. Urgent public health efforts should prioritize the reduction of UPF consumption.

Cost-effectiveness of tax policies on promoting sustainable diets in Iran: a modeling study

Background

Implementation of food taxes may promote sustainable diets in a society. This study estimates the potential short-term impacts of taxes on sugar and sweets (SAS), sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) and hydrogenated oil and animal fats (HOAF) in Iran through a social cost-effectiveness analysis.

Methods

In this study, three tax scenarios were evaluated, including a 25% tax on SASs, a 30% tax on SSBs, and a 30% tax on HOAFs. The data from Iran's 2019-2020 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) were utilized, and a simulated population of 1 million individuals aged over 25 years was analyzed. Population impact fraction (PIF) was calculated to estimate the averted number of cases and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) under each policy scenario. Additionally, the study assessed water and carbon footprints, as well as all associated costs. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated through incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and comparison with WHO-recommended thresholds.

Results

Implementation of taxes on SASs and HOAFs resulted in reductions of 1.09 and 1.08% in water footprint, as well as 0.47 and 1.05% in carbon footprint, respectively. In terms of population health, the interventions resulted in averting 343.92 DALYs (95% UI = 318.62-369.36) for the SSB tax and 1219.01 DALYs (95% UI = 1123.05-1315.77) for the tax on HOAFs. Additionally, the tax on SASs averted 1028.09 DALYs (95% UI = 947.16-1,109). All scenarios were deemed cost-effective based on the WHO threshold for ICER, with values of 0.26 billion Rials/DALY, 0.54 billion Rials/DALY, and 0.17 billion Rials/DALY, respectively.

Conclusion

The studied tax scenarios could generate substantial health gains and be cost-effective in Iran. It is recommended that policymakers consider implementing such price policies to promote healthy and sustainable diets.

Ultra-processed foods intake in relation to metabolic health status, serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor and adropin levels in adults

BACKGROUND

In recent years, there has been a lot of discussion over the impact of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) intake on overall health of subjects. However, the association between UPFs intake and metabolic unhealthy (MU) status is still in a state of ambiguity. The current study assessed the relationship between UPFs intake and MU status with regard to brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and adropin levels.

METHODS

A sample of Iranian adults (aged 20-65 years) was selected to participate in this cross-sectional study using a multistage cluster random-sampling method. UPFs intake was assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire and NOVA classification. Concentrations of metabolic parameters, BDNF and adropin were determined through fasting blood samples. MU status was assessed according to the criteria proposed by Wildman.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of MU phenotype among study participants (n = 527) was 42.5%. Higher intake of UPFs was associated with elevated odds of MU status in multivariable-adjusted model (ORT3 vs. T1=1.88; 95%CI: 1.02-3.45). Moreover, a positive association was observed between UPFs intake and hypertriglyceridemia after controlling all confounders (ORT3 vs. T1=2.07; 95%CI: 1.15-3.73). However, each tertile increase in UPFs intake was not significantly associated with serum BDNF ([Formula: see text]=0.15; 95%CI: -0.05, 0.34; P = 0.14) and adropin ([Formula: see text]=-1.37; 95%CI: -6.16, 3.42; P = 0.58) levels in multivariable-adjusted linear regression models.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggested that higher consumption of UPFs was related to increased likelihood of MU status among a sample of Iranian adults. Further longitudinal studies are needed to verify the directionality and generalizability of the results to all adult populations.

Long-term impact of unhealthy food tax on consumption and the drivers behind: A longitudinal study in Hungary

Several countries have introduced public health product taxes with the objective of reducing the absolute amount of consumption of unhealthy food and tackling obesity. This study aims to estimate the long-term impact of the Hungarian public health product tax introduced in 2011. To achieve this, a unique consumer purchase dataset was analysed to examine daily fast-moving consumer goods purchases from a representative sample of 2,000 households from 2010 to 2018. The results indicate that the tax has been fully reflected in consumer prices. A decline in consumption was observed initially, consistent with previous experiences in Hungary and other countries. However, over time, the data suggests a recovery and even an increase in line with the growth of disposable income. The proportion of taxed products in total fast-moving consumer goods purchases increased from 5.9 % (95 % CI: 5.7 % to 6.0 %) in 2010 to 7.4 % (95 % CI: 7.3 % to 7.6 %) in 2018. Furthermore, the tax has contributed to increased inequality as low-income households spend a higher proportion of their total expenditure on it. Although taxes on unhealthy foods have proven effective in the short-term, they may not be adequate for reducing overall consumption in the long-term, particularly as disposable income increases. In conclusion, implementing complex interventions is necessary to achieve sustainable positive changes in dietary habits.

Fruitful changes? Exploring household fruit purchase decisions following comprehensive food policy regulations in Chile

Changes in unprocessed healthy food purchases associated with the implementation of comprehensive food policy remain understudied. This study analyzes whether, following the announcement, modification, and implementation of Chile's Food Labeling and Advertising law targeting highly processed food (occurring in 2012, 2015, and 2016, respectively), households improved their fruit purchase decisions: purchase participation (i.e., buying likelihood) and purchase quantity. Expenditure data from a representative sample of Chilean households were employed, covering two consecutive survey waves conducted in 2011/2012 and 2016/2017. After controlling for socioeconomic factors (e.g., prices and income), results indicate that only purchase participation increased, providing weak support for positive spillover effects of a comprehensive food policy on fruit purchases. Subsample analyses reveal that this increase was driven by college-educated, childless, and low-income households and was stronger for sweeter and more convenient fruits. Considering that households in Chile do not meet health recommendations for daily fruit intake, additional policy efforts targeting healthy, unprocessed food consumption could be considered.

How prices and income influence global patterns in saturated fat intake by age, sex and world region: a cross-sectional analysis of 160 countries

OBJECTIVE

When considering proposals to improve diets, it is important to understand how factors like price and income can affect saturated fat (SF) intake and demand. In this study, we examine and estimate the influence of price and income on intake across 160 countries, by age and sex, and derive sensitivity measures (price elasticities) that vary by age, sex and world region.

DESIGN

We econometrically estimate intake responsiveness to income and prices across countries, accounting for differences by world region, age and sex. Intake data by age, sex and country were obtained from the 2018 Global Dietary Database. These data were then linked to global price data for select food groups from the World Bank International Comparison Programme and income data from the World Development Indicators Databank (World Bank).

RESULTS

Intake differences due to price were highly significant, with a 1% increase in price associated with a lower SF intake (% energy/d) of about 4.3 percentage points. We also find significant differences across regions. In high-income countries, median (age 40) intake reductions were 1.4, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points, given a 1% increase in the price of meat, dairy, and oils and fats, respectively. Price elasticities varied with age but not sex. Intake differences due to income were insignificant when regional binary variables were included in the analysis.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study show heterogeneous associations among prices and intake within and across countries. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneous effects as they address global nutrition and health challenges.

The effects of health-related food taxes on the environmental impact of consumer food purchases: secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial in a virtual supermarket

OBJECTIVE

To measure the effects of health-related food taxes on the environmental impact of consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket.

DESIGN

This is a secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial in which participants were randomly assigned to a control condition with regular food prices (n 152), an experimental condition with a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax (n 131) or an experimental condition with a nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score (n 112). Participants were instructed to undertake their typical weekly grocery shopping for their households. Primary outcome measures were three environmental impact indicators: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use and blue water use per household per week. Data were analysed using linear regression analyses.

SETTING

Three-dimensional virtual supermarket.

PARTICIPANTS

Dutch adults (≥ 18 years) who were responsible for grocery shopping in their household (n 395).

RESULTS

GHG emissions (-7·6 kg CO2-eq; 95 % CI -12·7, -2·5) and land use (-3·9 m2/year; 95 % CI -7·7, -0·2) were lower for the food purchases of participants in the nutrient profiling tax condition than for those in the control condition. Blue water use was not affected by the nutrient profiling tax. Moreover, the SSB tax had no significant effect on any of the environmental impact indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

A nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score reduced the environmental impact of consumer food purchases. An SSB tax did not affect the environmental impact in this study.

Food tax policies in Pacific Island Countries and Territories: systematic policy review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically identify and review food taxation policy changes in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs).

DESIGN

Food taxation polices, regarding excise taxes and tariffs applied from 2000 to 2020 in twenty-two PICTs, and their key characteristics were reviewed. The search was conducted using databases, government legal repositories and broad-based search engines. Identified documents for screening included legislation, reports, academic literature, news articles and grey literature. Key informants were contacted from each PICT to retrieve further data and confirm results. Results were analysed by narrative synthesis.

SETTING

Noncommunicable diseases (NCD) are the leading cause of premature death in PICTs and in many jurisdictions globally. An NCD crisis has been declared in the Pacific, and food taxation policy has been recommended to address the dietary risk factors associated with. Progress is unclear.

RESULTS

Of the twenty-two PICTs included in the study, fourteen had food taxation policies and five introduced excise taxes. Processed foods, sugar and salt were the main target of excise taxes. A total of eighty-four food taxation policy changes were identified across all food groups. There was a total of 279 taxes identified by food group, of which 85 % were tariffs and 15 % were excise taxes. Individual tax rates varied substantially. The predominant tax design was ad valorem, and this was followed by volumetric.

CONCLUSIONS

A quarter of PICTs have introduced food excise taxes from 2000 to 2020. Further excise taxes, specifically tiered or nutrient-specific designs, could be introduced and more systematically applied to a broader range of unhealthy foods.

A systematic scoping review evaluating sugar-sweetened beverage taxation from a systems perspective

Systems thinking can reveal surprising, counterintuitive or unintended reactions to population health interventions (PHIs), yet this lens has rarely been applied to sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation. Using a systematic scoping review approach, we identified 329 papers concerning SSB taxation, of which 45 considered influences and impacts of SSB taxation jointly, involving methodological approaches that may prove promising for operationalizing a systems informed approach to PHI evaluation. Influences and impacts concerning SSB taxation may be cyclically linked, and studies that consider both enable us to identify implications beyond a predicted linear effect. Only three studies explicitly used systems thinking informed methods. Finally, we developed an illustrative, feedback-oriented conceptual framework, emphasizing the processes that could result in an SSB tax being increased, maintained, eroded or repealed over time. Such a framework could be used to synthesize evidence from non-systems informed evaluations, leading to novel research questions and further policy development.

Impact of implementation of front-of-package nutrition labeling on sugary beverage consumption and consequently on the prevalence of excess body weight and obesity and related direct costs in Brazil: An estimate through a modeling study

RATIONALE

Intake of sugary beverages has been associated with obesity and chronic non-communicable diseases, thereby increasing the direct health costs related to these diseases. Front-of-package nutrition labeling (FoPNL) aims to help consumers understand food composition, thereby improving food choices and preventing the development of such diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate, over five years, the impact of implementing FoPNL in Brazil on the prevalence of excess body weight and obesity in adults who consume sugary beverages and the direct costs related to such problems.

METHODS

A simulation study to performed to estimate the effect of FoPNL implementation on the prevalence of excess body weight and obesity. The VIGITEL research database (2019), published in the 2020 report, was used in this study (the final sample consisted of 12,471 data points representing 14,380,032 Brazilians). The scenarios were considered: base (trend in sugary beverage intake); 1 (base scenario associated with the changes in energy content of the purchased beverages observed after the first phase of the Chilean labeling law (-9.9%); and 2 (scenario 1 associated with reformulation of beverages, total energy reduction of -1.6%). Changes in body weight were estimated using the simulation model of Hall et al. (2011) over five years. A linear trend in the prevalence of obesity and excess body weight in the Brazilian population was considered. The impact of the prevalence of obesity and excess body weight on body mass index was estimated. In addition, the direct health costs related to obesity were estimated.

RESULTS

Energy consumption from sugary beverages after FoPNL implementation is expected to be reduced by approximately 28 kcal/day (95% CI, -30 to -27) considering scenario 1. In scenarios 1 and 2, without FoPNL, the prevalence of obesity and excess body weight over five years was estimated to be 25.3% and 25.2%, and 64.4% and 64.2%, respectively. By extrapolating the results to the entire Brazilian population, it was observed that the implementation of FoPNL may reduce the prevalence of obesity by -0.32 percentage points and -0.35 percentage points (scenario 1 and 2, respectively) and excess body weight by -0.42 percentage points and -0.48 percentage points (scenarios 1 and 2, respectively) in five years. It is estimated that after five years of implementation, it will be possible to save approximately US$ 5,5 millions (95% CI 4,7 to 8,8) in scenario 1, reaching approximately US$ 6,1 millions (95% CI 5,3 to 9,8) in scenario 2.

CONCLUSION

The results of this modeling study indicate that FoPNL may reduce prevalence of excess body weight and obesity, representing strategic public policies for obesity prevention.

Sodium content in processed food items in Sweden compared to other countries: a cross-sectional multinational study

Background

Dietary sodium has a dose-response relationship with cardiovascular disease, and sodium intake in Sweden exceeds national and international recommendations. Two thirds of dietary sodium intake comes from processed foods, and adults in Sweden eat more processed foods than any other European country. We hypothesized that sodium content in processed foods is higher in Sweden than in other countries. The aim of this study was to investigate sodium content in processed food items in Sweden, and how it differs from Australia, France, Hong Kong, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Methods

Data were collected from retailers by trained research staff using standardized methods. Data were categorized into 10 food categories and compared using Kruskal-Wallis test of ranks. Sodium content in the food items was compared in mg sodium per 100 g of product, based on the nutritional content labels on the packages.

Results

Compared to other countries, Sweden had among the highest sodium content in the "dairy" and "convenience foods" categories, but among the lowest in "cereal and grain products," "seafood and seafood products" and "snack foods" categories. Australia had the overall lowest sodium content, and the US the overall highest. The highest sodium content in most analyzed countries was found in the "meat and meat products" category. The highest median sodium content in any category was found among "sauces, dips, spreads and dressings" in Hong Kong.

Conclusion

The sodium content differed substantially between countries in all food categories, although contrary to our hypothesis, processed foods overall had lower sodium content in Sweden than in most other included countries. Sodium content in processed food was nonetheless high also in Sweden, and especially so in increasingly consumed food categories, such as "convenience foods".

Ultra-Processed Food Intake Is Associated with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with overweight/obesity, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes (T2D) due to chronic caloric excess and physical inactivity. Previous meta-analyses have confirmed associations between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and obesity and T2D. We aim to ascertain the contribution of UPF consumption to the risk of developing NAFLD. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO (CRD42022368763)). All records registered on Ovid Medline and Web of Science were searched from inception until December 2022. Studies that assessed UPF consumption in adults, determined according to the NOVA food classification system, and that reported NAFLD determined by surrogate (steatosis) scores, imaging or liver biopsy were included. The association between UPF consumption and NAFLD was assessed using random-effects meta-analysis methods. Study quality was assessed, and evidence credibility evaluated, using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale and NutriGrade systems, respectively. A total of 5454 records were screened, and 112 records underwent full text review. From these, 9 studies (3 cross-sectional, 3 case-control and 3 cohort), analysing 60,961 individuals, were included in the current review. Both moderate (vs. low) (pooled relative risk 1.03 (1.00-1.07) (p = 0.04) (I² = 0%)) and high (vs. low) (1.42 (1.16-1.75) (<0.01) (I² = 89%)) intake of UPF significantly increased the risk of NAFLD. Funnel plots demonstrate low risk of publication bias. Consumption of UPF is associated with NAFLD with a dose-response effect. Public health measures to reduce overconsumption of UPF are imperative to reduce the burden of NAFLD, and the related conditions, obesity and T2D.

Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review

Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health and economic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake and increasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results of different studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.

Intake of ultra-processed foods and sleep-related outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The aim of this review article was to evaluate the association between the intake of ultra-processed foods and sleep-related outcomes through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Pubmed, LILACS, Scielo, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science were searched on December 31, 2021, for studies that evaluated the association between ultra-processed foods and sleep-related outcomes (self-reported sleep duration and quality). Pooled odds ratios were assessed through a random-effects model; heterogeneity was evaluated using the I² statistic. Fifteen cross-sectional studies were included; 14 showed that the high intake of ultra-processed foods was statistically significantly associated with sleep-related outcomes (sleep duration and quality). In the crude analysis, compared with low intake, high intake of ultra-processed foods increased the odds of sleep-related outcomes, with increased odds among children and/or adolescents, and null results among adults. When adjusted for cofounders, we found statistically significant results for all ages. The high intake of ultra-processed foods was associated with sleep-related outcomes, with moderate credibility of the evidence. Longitudinal studies and clinical trials confirming these findings are necessary.

The impact of sugar-sweetened beverages tax on oral health-related outcomes: a systematic review of the current evidence

Objective To provide a systematic overview of the impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on oral health-related outcomes.Data sources For this PRISMA-compliant review, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Central for relevant studies published from database inception to 27 August 2020.Data selection and extraction Two reviewers assessed the abstracts and then the full text of the studies. Primary studies that evaluated the impact of any kind of SSB tax on oral health-related outcomes (that is, decayed, missing and filled teeth, caries increment and dental treatment costs) were included.Data synthesis Of 503 search results, five studies met the inclusion criteria. All five were modelling studies, from which four studies predicted an SSB tax to have a positive impact on oral health-related outcomes, whereas one study in a developing country did not find an SSB tax to be solely successful. According to three studies, the younger population and men are likely to benefit the most from such a tax. One study demonstrated the benefits of an SSB tax to be potentially more significant among low-income individuals.Conclusion While no empirical studies are available to support the benefits of an SSB tax, the studies covered in this review altogether anticipate a positive impact. Furthermore, this review discusses some of the obstacles and limitations of implementing such a tax predicted by the included studies.

The Effects of Food Taxes and Subsidies on Promoting Healthier Diets in Iranian Households

Background and Aim

Price, as a key driver of food purchasing, has an important role in determining the consumer demand. This study is aimed to estimate the effect of food taxes and subsidies on purchasing patterns of Iranian households (HHs).

Methods

This study was performed in two phases. In phase one, a two-round Delphi study was conducted to determine and prioritize food-related fiscal policies; and in the second phase, using the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), we estimated an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and simulated changes in purchases, nutrient intake, and consumer welfare under six different policy scenarios: (1) 20% subsidy on vegetables, (2) 20% subsidy on fruits, (3) 30% subsidy on legumes, (4) 25% tax on sugar and sweets, (5) 30% tax on sweetened beverages, and (6) 30% tax on hydrogenated oil and animal fats.

Results

The highest calorie reduction was detected in sugar and sweets tax, which has resulted in 949.67, 971.68, and 1,148.03 kilocalories decrease in energy intake per Adult Male Equivalent (AME) in all HHs, low-income HHs, and high-income HHs, respectively. In terms of welfare changes, high-income HHs will experience a lower change in welfare (−0.81 to 0.11%) relative to their income when compared with low-income HHs (−0.88 to 0.28%) due to fiscal policies.

Conclusion

Fiscal policies in Iran can be a potential way to improve dietary choices. The findings provide essential information for decision makers for the implementation of food-related fiscal policies.

Associations among diet costs, food prices and income: Elasticities of risk and protection food groups for cardiometabolic diseases in Sao Paulo, Brazil (2003-2015)

Background: Economic dimension comprises important determinants of food choices, particularly income and prices. Aim: Identification of the influence of food prices and diet costs on the consumption of food groups considered protection and risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases. Methods: Food groups classification follows the proposal of "What we eat in America?" from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), adapted to Latin America. Data on food consumption from the Health Survey of Sao Paulo (2003, 2008, and 2015), representative at population level, was used. Log-linear regressions were estimated for food groups, controlling for endogeneity through augmented regression-test Results: Results showed increase in prices per calorie of whole grains and red meat from 2003-2015 and a decrease in prices per calorie of fruits, vegetables, beans, legumes, oilseeds and fish/seafood. Food groups had price elasticities between -0.01 and -1.6, i.e., decrease in consumption associated with increase in prices. Results showed statistically significant effects of substitution and complementarity, particularly substitution between sweetened beverages and fruits (2003, β = 0.606; 2008: β = 0.683; 2015, β = 0.848), complementarity between nuts and seeds and whole grains (2003, β = -0.646; 2008, β = -0.647; 2015,β = -0.901), and vegetables and processed meat (2003, β = -1.379; 2015, β = -1.685). Conclusion: Findings of the study represent relevant evidence for design strategies towards the adoption of healthier diets, particularly through subsidies to protection food groups, promoting lower prices and higher diet quality. The evidence may be useful for policymakers and researchers in fields of nutrition and health in diverse countries worldwide, especially due to absence of robust evidence in literature.

Potential impacts of policies to reduce purchasing of ultra-processed foods in Mexico at different stages of the social transition: an agent-based modelling approach

OBJECTIVES

To develop a simulation framework for assessing how combinations of taxes, nutrition warning labels and advertising levels could affect purchasing of ultra-processed foods (UPF) in Latin American countries and to understand whether policies reinforce or reduce pre-existing social disparities in UPF consumption.

DESIGN

We developed an agent-based simulation model using international evidence regarding the effect of price, nutrition warning labels and advertising on UPF purchasing.

SETTING

We estimated policy effects in scenarios representing two stages of the 'social transition' in UPF purchasing: (1) a pre-transition scenario, where UPF purchasing is higher among high-income households, similar to patterns in Mexico; and (2) a post-transition scenario where UPF purchasing is highest among low-income households, similar to patterns in Chile.

PARTICIPANTS

A population of 1000 individual agents with levels of age, income, educational attainment and UPF purchasing similar to adult women in Mexico.

RESULTS

A 20 % tax would decrease purchasing by 24 % relative to baseline in both the pre- and post-transition scenarios, an effect that is similar in magnitude to that of a nutrition warning label policy. A 50 % advertising increase or decrease had a comparatively small effect. Nutrition warning labels were most effective among those with higher levels of educational attainment. Labelling reduced inequities in the pre-transition scenario (i.e. highest UPF purchasing among the highest socio-economic group) but widened inequities in the post-transition scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective policy levers are available to reduce UPF purchasing, but policymakers should anticipate that equity impacts will differ depending on existing social patterns in UPF purchasing.

Fiscal Reform in Costa Rica: Price Elasticities of Major Food Categories to Inform Decision-Making

In the context of fiscal reform in Costa Rica (value added tax revision), the definition of a new basic tax basket, “canasta básica tributaria” (CBT) in Spanish, incorporating nutritional criteria is underway in the country. In this study, price elasticities of major food categories were analyzed using a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model. Data from the 2018 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditures was used. Measuring price elasticities is essential because it allows: knowing the extent to which food demand reacts to price changes, anticipating changes in the quantities demanded as a result of fiscal policy changes, measuring potential substitution and complementary effects between food groups, and potential nutritional effects of fiscal policies. As a result, it helps providing recommendations on the content of a CBT with nutritional criteria. Results show that the food categories with the most elastic demand are “Bread and cereals,” soft drinks and “Milk, cheese and eggs.” Substitution effects exist between the following groups: “Fruits” and “Oils and fats,” “Fruits” and “Bread and cereals,” and between “Milk, cheese and eggs” and “Oils and fats.” For this last food category and for the one which includes sweets and chocolates, the consumption decreases when the price of “Bread and cereals” increases. They are complementary goods. These relations between food groups need to be taken into account when defining a national CBT with nutritional criteria and with the objective of promoting the consumption of healthier food groups while disincentivizing the consumption of the unhealthy ones. Lastly, it is important that the consumption of the healthiest foods within each food group be fiscally promoted.

Why Don't You [Government] Help Us Make Healthier Foods More Affordable Instead of Bombarding Us with Labels? Maternal Knowledge, Perceptions, and Practices after Full Implementation of the Chilean Food Labelling Law

Experimental and real-life evaluations show that the use of front-of-package warning labels (FoP) in unhealthy foods is well understood and can modify people's behaviors. However, it is unclear whether these effects remain in the long term because of the risk of message fatigue. The purpose of this study is to explore after four years of implementation of the Chilean Food Labelling law people's dietary behavior and FoP labels attention. Nine focus groups of mothers (7-10 people each) of children (2-14 yo) were conducted in Santiago, Chile, and macrocodes were developed, combining an iterative process of deductive and inductive thematic analyses. We found that mothers experienced labels' fatigue but also had greater knowledge about nutrition and appreciation for more natural foods. This greater knowledge about better nutrition interferes with the perception that healthier and less processed foods are financial and physically inaccessible. The key role of schools as an environment for promoting healthier diets in children was strengthened by the mothers. These results suggest that policies based on providing consumer information need reinforcement campaigns to maintain their effectiveness and that we also need to advance policies to improve access and affordability of healthy foods to ensure better diets.

The effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and a nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket: a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and a nutrient profiling tax on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket.

DESIGN

A randomised controlled trial was conducted with a control condition with regular food prices (n 152), an SSB tax condition (n 130) and a nutrient profiling tax condition based on Nutri-Score (n 112). Participants completed a weekly grocery shop for their household. Primary outcome measures were SSB purchases (ordinal variable) and the overall healthiness of the total shopping basket (proportion of total unit food items classified as healthy). The secondary outcome measure was the energy (kcal) content of the total shopping basket. Data were analysed using regression analyses.

SETTING

Three-dimensional virtual supermarket.

PARTICIPANTS

Dutch adults aged ≥18 years are being responsible for grocery shopping in their household (n 394).

RESULTS

The SSB tax (OR = 1·62, (95 % CI 1·03, 2·54)) and the nutrient profiling tax (OR = 1·88, (95 %CI 1·17, 3·02)) increased the likelihood of being in a lower-level category of SSB purchases. The overall healthiness of the total shopping basket was higher (+2·7 percent point, (95 % CI 0·1, 5·3)), and the energy content was lower (-3301 kcal, (95 % CI -6425, -177)) for participants in the nutrient profiling tax condition than for those in the control condition. The SSB tax did not affect the overall healthiness and energy content of the total shopping basket (P > 0·05).

CONCLUSIONS

A nutrient profiling tax targeting a wide range of foods and beverages with a low nutritional quality seems to have larger beneficial effects on consumer food purchases than taxation of SSB alone.

Ultra-processed food and risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND

The consumption of some food groups is associated with the risk of diabetes. However, there is no evidence from meta-analysis which evaluates the consumption of ultra-processed products in the risk of diabetes. This study aimed to review the literature assessing longitudinally the association between consumption of ultra-processed food and the risk of type 2 diabetes and to quantify this risk through a meta-analysis.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis with records from PubMed, Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences (LILACS), Scielo, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science. We included longitudinal studies assessing ultra-processed foods and the risk of type 2 diabetes. The review process was conducted independently by two reviewers. The Newcastle Ottawa scale assessed the quality of the studies. A meta-analysis was conducted to assess the effect of moderate and high consumption of ultra-processed food on the risk of diabetes.

RESULTS

In total 2272 records were screened, of which 18 studies, including almost 1.1 million individuals, were included in this review and 72% showed a positive association between ultra-processed foods and the risk of diabetes. According to the studies included in the meta-analysis, compared with non-consumption, moderate intake of ultra-processed food increased the risk of diabetes by 12% [relative risk (RR): 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.17, I2 = 24%], whereas high intake increased risk by 31% (RR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.21-1.42, I2 = 60%).

CONCLUSIONS

The consumption of ultra-processed foods increased the risk for type 2 diabetes as dose-response effect, with moderate to high credibility of evidence.

Bittersweet: How prices of sugar-rich foods contribute to the diet-related disease epidemic in Mexico

I provide new evidence on how price changes of nutritionally similar foods, such as those rich in sugar or fats, change obesity and diet-related diseases in the context of Mexico between 1996-2010. I merge a bar-code level price dataset with product-specific nutritional composition to two datasets with health outcomes: state-level administrative and nationally representative individual-level panel data. Exploiting within-city variation in prices using fixed effects models, I show that decreased prices of sugar-rich foods increase obesity, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension prevalence; yet the prices of foods rich in other nutrients do not. Health responses to price changes are the largest for those abdominally obese or at the highest risk for chronic disease. The association between prices of sugary foods and chronic disease is meaningful: I estimate that in Mexico, price reductions of sugary foods explain roughly 15 percent of the rise in obesity and diabetes during the 15-year study period.

Evaluation of Changes in Grams of Sugar Sold After the Implementation of the Seattle Sweetened Beverage Tax

IMPORTANCE

Adults and children routinely exceed recommended intake amounts of added sugars established by dietary guidelines. Taxes are used as a policy tool to reduce demand for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) given consumption-related adverse health outcomes but may induce substitution to other sources of added sugars.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the extent to which changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages may be offset by changes in grams of sugar sold from untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar after the implementation of the Seattle, Washington, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) on January 1, 2018.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study used difference-in-differences analyses to examine changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed and untaxed products in Seattle compared with Portland, Oregon, at year 1 and year 2 post tax. This study used Nielsen scanner data from supermarkets and mass merchandise as well as grocery, drug, convenience, and dollar stores on unit sales and measurements for beverage and food product universal product codes (UPCs) for each site for the pretax period (January 8-December 30, 2017) and the corresponding weeks in year 1 post tax (2018) and in year 2 post tax (2019). Nutritional analyses assessed grams of sugar for each UPC. The analytical balanced sample included 1326 taxed beverage UPCs, 239 untaxed beverage UPCs, 2054 sweets UPCs, and 81 stand-alone sugar UPCs. Statistical analysis was performed from January to August 2021.

EXPOSURES

Implementation of the Seattle SBT.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages, untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar.

RESULTS

At both year 1 and year 2 post tax in Seattle compared with Portland, grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages decreased 23% (year 2 posttax ratio of incidence rate ratios [RIRR] = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.73-0.80). Sugar sold from untaxed beverages increased at year 1 post tax by 4% (RIRR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.07) with no change at year 2 post tax. Sugar sold from sweets increased by 4% at both year 1 and year 2 post tax (year 2 posttax RIRR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.06). There were no changes in stand-alone sugar sold.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study using difference-in-differences analysis found a net 19% reduction in grams of sugar sold from taxed SSBs at year 2 post tax after accounting for changes in sugar sold from untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar. These results suggest that SSB taxes may effectively yield permanent reductions in added sugars sold from SSBs in food stores.

The Impact of Seattle's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax on Substitution to Sweets and Salty Snacks

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes may have broad effects on purchases of untaxed foods, and substitution of SSBs with untaxed sweets and/or salty snacks could offset the intended dietary and health effects of these policies.

OBJECTIVES

To test whether there were changes in sales and calories sold for untaxed foods in response to the SSB tax in Seattle, Washington, at 12 and 24 months post-tax implementation.

METHODS

On 1 January 2018, the City of Seattle levied a 1.75 cents per ounce excise tax on distributors selling targeted SSBs. We utilized universal product code-level store scanner data and employed a difference-in-differences approach to assess the impacts of the tax on the changes in 1) sales of sweets and salty snacks; and 2) total calories sold for sweets in Seattle relative to changes in its comparison site of Portland, Oregon, at 12 and 24 months post-tax.

RESULTS

In the 12 months post-tax, sales of sweets increased by 4% [ratio of incidence rate ratios (RIRR), 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.05] in Seattle relative to the changes in Portland; at 24 months post-tax, sweet sales increased by 6% (RIRR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.07) relative to the pretax period. There was no significant change in sales of salty snacks at 12 months (RIRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.01) or 24 months (RIRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.02) post-tax. Total calories sold for sweets increased by 3% (RIRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) in Seattle compared with Portland at 12 months post-tax and by 4% (RIRR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) at 24 months after implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

There was modest substitution of SSBs for sweets in Seattle following tax implementation. However, this increase in sales and calories sold is not likely to offset previously identified tax-related reductions in the demand for taxed beverages in Seattle. Thus, SSB taxes are a promising policy tool to reduce caloric intake in the United States.

Behavioral Economics: A Primer and Applications to the UN Sustainable Development Goal of Good Health and Well-Being

Behavioral economics (BE) is a relatively new field within economics that incorporates insights from psychology that can be harnessed to improve economic decision making with the potential to enhance good health and well-being of individuals and societies, the third of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. While some of the psychological principles of economic decision making were described as far back as the 1700s by Adam Smith, BE emerged as a discipline in the 1970s with the groundbreaking work of psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. We describe the basic concepts of BE, heuristics (decision-making shortcuts) and their associated biases, and the BE strategies framing, incentives, and economic nudging to overcome these biases. We survey the literature to identify how BE techniques have been employed to improve individual choice (focusing on childhood obesity), health policy, and patient and healthcare provider decision making. Additionally, we discuss how these BE-based efforts to improve health-related decision making can lead to sustaining good health and well-being and identify additional health-related areas that may benefit from including principles of BE in decision making.

Do taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages influence food purchases?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Interest in taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages as a public health tool has increased in recent years. This paper aimed to summarise recent evidence of the impact of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages on food purchases, and discuss opportunities to advance knowledge and policy impact.

RECENT FINDINGS

Evaluations of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages have shown reductions in purchases of targeted unhealthy products and nutrients. Similarly, data from multiple sources demonstrate that as prices of unhealthy foods and beverages increase, purchase volume decreases. However, studies indicate potential for substitution to non-taxed unhealthy foods, which needs to be factored into taxation design. Taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages are a promising strategy to improve population diets. Further research is required to understand food industry responses to tax implementation, as well as the impact of taxes on population and planetary health outcomes.

How do consumers respond to "sin taxes"? New evidence from a tax on sugary drinks

It is unclear what the effects of taxes on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) are on consumer behaviour and which consumers may be affected the most. We evaluate the effect of the SSB tax introduced in Catalonia (but not in the rest of Spain) in May 2017 using loyalty card data of monthly purchases by 884,843 households from May 2016 to April 2018. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach, we study the SSB tax effect on the purchased quantity of beverages and sugar. Our results suggest a reduction in purchases of taxed beverages and a small increase in purchases of untaxed beverages. Households have substituted taxed beverages with their lower sugar (untaxed) counterparts. This has led to a 2.2% overall reduction in sugar purchases from beverages. Our study implies that although sin taxes moderately change consumer behaviour, a combination of different policies would be required to tackle obesity.

The political economy of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Latin America: lessons from Mexico, Chile and Colombia

BACKGROUND

In Latin America, total sales of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) continue to rise at an alarming rate. Consumption of added sugar is a leading cause of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Coalitions of stakeholders have formed in several countries in the region to address this public health challenge including participation of civil society organizations and transnational corporations. Little is currently known about these coalitions - what interests they represent, what goals they pursue and how they operate. Ensuring the primacy of public health goals is a particular governance challenge. This paper comparatively analyses governance challenges involved in the adoption of taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico, Chile and Colombia. The three countries have similar political and economic systems, institutional arrangements and regulatory instruments but differing policy outcomes.

METHODS

We analysed the political economy of SSB taxation based on a qualitative synthesis of existing empirical evidence. We identify the key stakeholders involved in the policy process, identified their interests, and assess how they influenced adoption and implementation of the tax.

RESULTS

Coalitions for and against the SSB taxation formed the basis of policy debates in all three countries. Intergovernmental support was critical to framing the SSB tax aims, benefits and implementation; and for countries to adopt it. A major constraint to implementation was the strong influence of transnational corporations (TNCs) in the policy process. A lack of transparency during agenda setting was notably enhanced by the powerful presence of TNCs.

CONCLUSION

NCDs prevention policies need to be supported across government, alongside grassroots organizations, policy champions and civil society groups to enhance their success. However, governance arrangements involving coalitions between public and private sector actors need to recognize power asymmetries among different actors and mitigate their potentially negative consequences. Such arrangements should include clear mechanisms to ensure transparency and accountability of all partners, and prevent undue influence by industry interests associated with unhealthy products.

Effectiveness and Feasibility of Taxing Salt and Foods High in Sodium: A Systematic Review of the Evidence

Diets high in salt are a leading risk for death and disability globally. Taxing unhealthy food is an effective means of influencing what people eat and improving population health. Although there is a growing body of evidence on taxing products high in sugar, and unhealthy foods more broadly, there is limited knowledge or experience of using fiscal measures to reduce salt consumption. We searched peer-reviewed databases [MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews] and gray literature for studies published between January 2000 and October 2019. Studies were included if they provided information on the impact on salt consumption of: taxes on salt; taxes on foods high in salt, and taxes on unhealthy foods defined to include foods high in salt. Studies were excluded if their definition of unhealthy foods did not specify high salt or sodium. We found 18 relevant studies, including 15 studies reporting the effects of salt taxes through modeling (8), real-world evaluation (4), experimental design (2), or review of cost-effectiveness (1); 6 studies providing information relevant to country implementation of salt taxes; and 2 studies reporting stakeholder perceptions toward salt taxation. Although there is some evidence on the potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of salt taxation, especially from modeling studies, uptake of salt taxation is limited in practice. Some modeling studies suggested that food taxes can have unintended outcomes such as reduced consumption of healthy foods, or increased consumption of unhealthy, untaxed substitutes. In contrast, modeling studies that combined taxes for unhealthy foods with subsidies found that the benefits were increased. Modeling suggests that taxing all foods based on their salt content is likely to have more impact than taxing specific products high in salt given that salt is pervasive in the food chain. However, the limited experience we found suggests that policy-makers favor taxing specific products.

The effects of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages in Ecuador: An analysis across different income and consumption groups

To analyze the effects of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Ecuador, this study estimates a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model using data from the 2011–2012 National Survey of Income and Expenditure for Urban and Rural Households. We derive own- and cross-price elasticities by income quintiles and consumption deciles for five beverages, including two types of sugary drink: (i) milk, (ii) soft drinks, (iii) water, (iv) other sugary drinks, and (v) coffee and tea. Overall, results show that a 20% increase in the price of SSBs will decrease the consumption of soft drinks and other sugary drinks by 27% and 22%, respectively. Heterogeneous consumer behavior is revealed across income and consumption groups, as well as policy-relevant complementarity and substitution patterns. Policy impacts are simulated by considering an 18 cents per liter tax, implemented in Ecuador, and an ad-valorem 20% tax on the price. Estimated tax revenues and weight loss are larger for the latter. From a health perspective, high-income and heavy consumer households would benefit the most from this policy. Our study supports an evidence-based debate on how to correctly design and monitor food policy.

Curtis C, Frieden TR, Cobb LK. Priority Actions to Advance Population Sodium Reduction

High sodium intake is estimated to cause approximately 3 million deaths per year worldwide. The estimated average sodium intake of 3.95 g/day far exceeds the recommended intake. Population sodium reduction should be a global priority, while simultaneously ensuring universal salt iodization. This article identifies high priority strategies that address major sources of sodium: added to packaged food, added to food consumed outside the home, and added in the home. To be included, strategies needed to be scalable and sustainable, have large benefit, and applicable to one of four measures of effectiveness: (1) Rigorously evaluated with demonstrated success in reducing sodium; (2) suggestive evidence from lower quality evaluations or modeling; (3) rigorous evaluations of similar interventions not specifically for sodium reduction; or (4) an innovative approach for sources of sodium that are not sufficiently addressed by an existing strategy. We identified seven priority interventions. Four target packaged food: front-of-pack labeling, packaged food reformulation targets, regulating food marketing to children, and taxes on high sodium foods. One targets food consumed outside the home: food procurement policies for public institutions. Two target sodium added at home: mass media campaigns and population uptake of low-sodium salt. In conclusion, governments have many tools to save lives by reducing population sodium intake.

The use of financial incentives to prevent unhealthy behaviors: A review

Behaviors that are putting people's health at risk are widespread and some of them are on the rise. Some of these behaviors can be prohibited or prevented by taxation. But financial incentives such as conditional cash transfers are also increasingly proposed and tested to discourage such behaviors, in domains as varied as HIV/AIDS, drugs, alcohol, smoking, and obesity. This paper presents the theoretical justification for using such incentives, distinguishing between the price, income effects, and the nudge effects. The growing literature about the effectiveness of financial incentives to prevent undesirable behaviors is reviewed in detail for each type of harmful behavior. Finally, the paper discusses the long-term sustainability of such incentives, a key issue if they are to be scaled up beyond pilot programs and research projects. The current evidence on whether such incentives have an impact after they are discontinued is mixed. Some design features, like lotteries or commitment devices, could induce savings as well as increase effectiveness, therefore improving sustainability.

Impact of sugar taxes and front-of-package nutrition labels on purchases of protein, calcium and fibre

Taxes and front-of-package (FOP) labels can be effective interventions for reducing consumption of sugar, saturated fat, and sodium; however, few studies have examined their impact on intake of 'positive' nutrients. The current study explored the impact of sugar taxes and FOP labels on the protein, calcium and fibre density of snack food purchases. A total of 3584 Canadians aged 13 years and older participated in an experimental marketplace using a 3 × 8 between-within group experiment. Participants received $5 and viewed images of 20 snack food products available for purchase. Participants were randomized to one of five FOP label conditions (no label, high in, multiple traffic light, health star rating, or nutrition grade) and completed three within-subject purchasing tasks with different sugar tax conditions (no tax, 20%, tiered). Upon conclusion, participants received the product and any change from one of the purchasing tasks. The results indicate that participants purchased snack foods with higher fibre density when either sugar tax was applied (+0.1 g/100 kcal) compared to no tax, and when they were assigned to see the multiple traffic light (+0.4 g/100 kcal) or health star rating (+0.3 g/100 kcal) FOP labels, compared to no FOP label. There were no significant differences in the protein or calcium density of snack foods purchased across the tax or FOP labelling conditions. Overall, the findings suggest that as consumers respond to tax or labelling policies by moving away from sugars, sodium, and saturated fat, there may be no downside-or even an increase-in 'positive' nutrient density.

Reducing children's sugar intake through food reformulation: methods for estimating sugar reduction program targets, using New Zealand as a case study

BACKGROUND

Reducing sugar in packaged foods and beverages could help protect children's future health. Clear methods for the development of feasible yet impactful sugar reduction program targets are needed.

OBJECTIVES

To outline methods for the development of program targets that would reduce, by 20%, the total sugar content of packaged foods and beverages commonly consumed by children. New Zealand (NZ) is used as a case study.

METHODS

Sugar content and pack size targets were developed using a 6-step process informed by the UK sugar and salt reduction programs. Food groups contributing ≥2% to children's total sugar intake were identified using national dietary survey data. Consumption volume, sugar content, and pack size were obtained from household panel data linked with a packaged food composition database. Category-specific targets were set as 20% reductions in sales-weighted means adjusted for feasibility, i.e., ∼1/3 of products already meeting the target, and alignment with existing, relevant targets.

RESULTS

Twenty-two food groups were identified as major contributors to NZ children's total sugar intake. Mean reductions required in sugar content and pack size to meet the targets were 5.2 g  per 100 g/mL (26%) and 61.2 g/mL/pack (23%), respectively. The percentage of products already meeting the sugar targets ranged from 14% for electrolyte drinks and flavored dairy milk to 50% for cereal bars, and for pack size targets compliance ranged from 32% for chocolate confectionary to 62% for fruit juices and drinks. Estimated reductions in annual household sugar purchases if the sugar and pack size targets were met were 1459 g (23%) and 286 g (6%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Methods for the development of sugar and pack size reduction targets are presented, providing a robust, step-by-step process for countries to follow. The results of the case study provide a suggested benchmark for a potential national sugar reduction program in NZ.

An evaluation of Chile's Law of Food Labeling and Advertising on sugar-sweetened beverage purchases from 2015 to 2017: A before-and-after study

BACKGROUND

Chile's Law of Food Labeling and Advertising, implemented in 2016, was the first national regulation to jointly mandate front-of-package warning labels, restrict child-directed marketing, and ban sales in schools of all foods and beverages containing added sugars, sodium, or saturated fats that exceed set nutrient or calorie thresholds. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of this package of policies on household beverage purchases.

METHOD AND FINDINGS

In this observational study, monthly longitudinal data on packaged beverage purchases were collected from urban-dwelling households (n = 2,383) participating in the Kantar WordPanel Chile Survey from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2017. Beverage purchases were linked to nutritional information at the product level, reviewed by a team of nutritionists, and categorized as "high-in" or "not high-in" according to whether they contained high levels of nutrients of concern (i.e., sugars, sodium, saturated fat, or energy) according to Chilean nutrient thresholds and were thus subject to the law's warning label, marketing restriction, and school sales ban policies. The majority of high-in beverages were categorized as such because of high sugar content. We used fixed-effects models to compare the observed volume as well as calorie and sugar content of postregulation beverage purchases to a counterfactual based on preregulation trends, overall and by household-head educational attainment. Of households included in the study, 37% of household heads had low education (less than high school), 40% had medium education (graduated high school), and 23% had high education (graduated college), with the sample becoming more educated over the study period. Compared to the counterfactual, the volume of high-in beverage purchases decreased 22.8 mL/capita/day, postregulation (95% confidence interval [CI] -22.9 to -22.7; p < 0.001), or 23.7% (95% CI -23.8% to -23.7%). High-educated and low-educated households showed similar absolute reductions in high-in beverage purchases (approximately 27 mL/capita/day; p < 0.001), but for high-educated households this amounted to a larger relative decline (-28.7%, 95% CI -28.8% to -28.6%) compared to low-educated households (-21.5%, 95% CI -21.6% to -21.4%), likely because of the high-educated households' lower level of high-in beverage purchases in the preregulation period. Calories from high-in beverage purchases decreased 11.9 kcal/capita/day (95% CI -12.0 to -11.9; p < 0.001) or 27.5% (95% CI -27.6% to -27.5%). Calories purchased from beverages classified as "not high-in" increased 5.7 kcal/capita/day (95% CI 5.7-5.7; p < 0.001), or 10.8% (10.8%-10.8%). Calories from total beverage purchases decreased 7.4 kcal/capita/day (95% CI -7.4 to -7.3; p < 0.001), or 7.5% (95% CI -7.6% to -7.5%). A key limitation of this study is the inability to assess causality because of its observational nature. We also cannot determine whether observed changes in purchases are due to reformulation or consumer behavioral change, nor can we parse out the effects of the labeling, marketing, and school sales ban policies.

CONCLUSIONS

Purchases of high-in beverages significantly declined following implementation of Chile's Law of Food Labeling and Advertising; these reductions were larger than those observed from single, standalone policies, including sugar-sweetened-beverage taxes previously implemented in Latin America. Future research should evaluate the effects of Chile's policies on purchases of high-in foods, dietary intake, and long-term purchasing changes.

What to expect from the price of healthy and unhealthy foods over time? The case from Brazil

Objective:

To measure change in price of food groups over time (1995–2030) in Brazil, considering the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines’ recommendations.

Design:

Data from the Household Budget Survey (2008–2009 HBS) and the National System of Consumer Price Indexes (NSCPI) were used to create a data set containing monthly prices for the foods and beverages most consumed in the country (n 102), from January 1995 to December 2017. Data on price of foods and beverages from 2008–2009 HBS (referring to January 2009) were used to calculate real price over time using the monthly variation in prices from NSCPI. All prices were deflated to December 2017. Foods and beverages were classified following the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines’ recommendations. The monthly price for each food group and subgroup was used to analyse changes in prices from 1995 to 2017 and to forecast prices up to 2030 using fractional polynomial models.

Setting:

Brazil.

Participants:

National estimates of foods and beverages purchased for Brazil.

Results:

In 1995, ultra-processed foods were the most expensive group (R$ 6·51/kg), followed by processed foods (R$ 6·44/kg), then unprocessed or minimally processed foods and culinary ingredients (R$ 3·45/kg). Since the early 2000s, the price of ultra-processed foods underwent successive reductions, becoming cheaper than processed foods and reducing the distance between it and the price of the other group. Forecasts indicate that unhealthy foods will become cheaper than healthy foods in 2026.

Conclusions:

Food prices in Brazil have changed unfavourably considering the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines’ recommendations. This may imply a decrease in the quality of the population’s diet.

Combined fiscal policies to promote healthier diets: Effects on purchases and consumer welfare

Taxes on unhealthy foods and sweetened beverages, as well as subsidies to healthy foods, have become increasingly popular strategies to curb obesity and related non-communicable diseases. The existing evidence on the welfare effects of such fiscal policies is mixed and almost uniquely focused on tax schemes. Using the 2016-2017 Chilean Household Budget Survey, we estimate a censored Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) incomplete demand system and simulate changes in purchases, tax incidence, and consumer welfare of three different policy scenarios: (1) a 5 percentage point additional tax on sweetened beverages (currently taxed at 18%) and a new 18% tax on sweets and snacks, (2) a healthy subsidy by zero-rating fruits and vegetables from the current 19% value-added tax, and (3) a combined (tax plus subsidy) policy. Under full pass-through of these policies, the combined scheme captures the incentives to switch purchases from both single-policy alternatives, resulting in a net welfare gain and subsidy transfer for the average Chilean household. In terms of welfare, low-income households strictly benefit from a combined policy, while high-income households experience a small consumer welfare loss, resulting in re-distributional effects.

Effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on prices and affordability of soft drinks in Chile: A time series analysis

Chile is one of several countries that recently implemented a fiscal policy to reduce soft drink (SD) intake and obesity. In 2014 the government increased the existing ad-valorem tax on high-sugar SD by 5% and decreased by 3% the tax on low-sugar SD, based on a 6.25gr/100 ml sugar threshold. This study aims to evaluate the tax modification passed-on to consumers through prices, and to calculate changes in affordability of SDs. We analysed nationally representative consumer price index data of 41 soft drinks within 6 beverage categories between 2009 and 2016. Price change post-tax implementation was estimated for different categories (carbonates, juices, concentrates, waters and energy-sport drinks), using time-series analyses. In addition, changes in affordability were evaluated by estimating the changes in prices relative to wages. The price of carbonates increased by 5.60% (CI 95% 3.18–8.03%) immediately after the tax was implemented. A sustained increase in the prices of concentrates was observed after the implementation. Unexpectedly, a smaller increase was also seen for the price of bottled water – a category that saw no tax change. There were no effects for juices and energy-sports drinks. There was a reduction in affordability for carbonates, concentrates and waters. Overall, the fiscal policy was effective in increasing prices and there are some signs of reduced affordability. Results varied substantially among categories directly affected by the tax policy. While for carbonates the price increase exceeded the tax change (‘over-shifting’), in other categories subject to a tax cut, a price reduction was expected but the opposite occurred. As the effect of the tax on prices differed between categories, the effects of the tax policy on consumption patterns are likely to be mixed. Our findings underline the need to better understand and anticipate price setting behaviour of firms in response to a tax.

•

Chile implemented a tax policy on soft drinks (SD) to promote healthier diets in 2014.

•

It consists in a 5% tax increase on high-sugar SD and 3% reduction on low-sugar SD.

•

Using consumer price index data we estimate policy impact on SD price/affordability.

•

Overall, the policy was effective to increase prices and reduce affordability.

•

Results varied substantially among SD categories, with some counterintuitive effects.

Taxing highly processed foods: What could be the impacts on obesity and underweight in sub-Saharan Africa?

The consumption of highly processed food has been singled out as one of the factors responsible for the rapidly increasing prevalence of obesity and its associated non-communicable diseases and costs. While obesity prevalence is still comparatively low in lower-income sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), development prospects in this region render markets especially attractive for these foods, whose consumption is already growing at higher rates than in developed countries. This might be reflected in the massive rise in obesity prevalence growth rates in SSA over the past decade, while many of these countries are simultaneously struggling with high undernutrition prevalence. Using a newly constructed cross-country panel dataset, this study econometrically investigates the effect of higher import tariffs on highly processed vis-à-vis less-processed foods with respect to their impacts on obesity and underweight prevalence in the adult population. While the analysis is global, the discussion focuses primarily on SSA. The effects of the tariff differences are found to be significant and substantial and to differ by income level of the country as well as by gender. More generally, the results show that policies affecting the consumer price differential between the two food groups are effective in influencing obesity and underweight prevalence and that these two issues cannot be treated separately.

Taxes and front-of-package labels improve the healthiness of beverage and snack purchases: a randomized experimental marketplace

BACKGROUND

Sugar taxes and front-of-package (FOP) nutrition labelling systems are strategies to address diet-related non-communicable diseases. However, there is relatively little experimental data on how these strategies influence consumer behavior and how they may interact. This study examined the relative impact of different sugar taxes and FOP labelling systems on beverage and snack food purchases.

METHODS

A total of 3584 Canadians 13 years and older participated in an experimental marketplace study using a 5 (FOP label condition) × 8 (tax condition) between-within group experiment. Participants received $5 and were presented with images of 20 beverages and 20 snack foods available for purchase. Participants were randomized to one of five FOP label conditions (no label; 'high in' warning; multiple traffic light; health star rating; nutrition grade) and completed eight within-subject purchasing tasks with different taxation conditions (beverages: no tax, 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), 20% tax on sugary drinks, tiered tax on SSBs, tiered tax on sugary drinks; snack foods: no tax, 20% tax on high-sugar foods, tiered tax on high-sugar foods). Upon conclusion, one of eight selections was randomly chosen for purchase, and participants received the product and any change.

RESULTS

Compared to those who saw no FOP label, participants who viewed the 'high in' symbol purchased less sugar (- 2.5 g), saturated fat (- 0.09 g), and calories (- 12.6 kcal) in the beverage purchasing tasks, and less sodium (- 13.5 mg) and calories (- 8.9 kcal) in the food tasks. All taxes resulted in substantial reductions in mean sugars (- 1.4 to - 4.7 g) and calories (- 5.3 to - 19.8 kcal) purchased, and in some cases, reductions in sodium (- 2.5 to - 6.6 mg) and saturated fat (- 0.03 to - 0.08 g). Taxes that included 100% fruit juice ('sugary drink' taxes) produced greater reductions in sugars and calories than those that did not.

CONCLUSIONS

This study expands the evidence indicating the effectiveness of sugar taxation and FOP labelling strategies in promoting healthy food and beverage choices. The results emphasize the importance of applying taxes to 100% fruit juice to maximize policy impact, and suggest that nutrient-specific FOP 'high in' labels may be more effective than other common labelling systems at reducing consumption of targeted nutrients.

Caffeine in the Diet: Country-Level Consumption and Guidelines

Coffee, tea, caffeinated soda, and energy drinks are important sources of caffeine in the diet but each present with other unique nutritional properties. We review how our increased knowledge and concern with regard to caffeine in the diet and its impact on human health has been translated into food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG). Using the Food and Agriculture Organization list of 90 countries with FBDG as a starting point, we found reference to caffeine or caffeine-containing beverages (CCB) in 81 FBDG and CCB consumption data (volume sales) for 56 of these countries. Tea and soda are the leading CCB sold in African and Asian/Pacific countries while coffee and soda are preferred in Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Key themes observed across FBDG include (i) caffeine-intake upper limits to avoid risks, (ii) CCB as replacements for plain water, (iii) CCB as added-sugar sources, and (iv) health benefits of CCB consumption. In summary, FBDG provide an unfavorable view of CCB by noting their potential adverse/unknown effects on special populations and their high sugar content, as well as their diuretic, psycho-stimulating, and nutrient inhibitory properties. Few FBDG balanced these messages with recent data supporting potential benefits of specific beverage types.

Trends in sweetened beverages consumption among adults in the Brazilian capitals, 2007–2016

Objective

To analyse trends in sweetened beverages consumption among adults in Brazil between 2007 and 2016.

Design

A time-series analysis, with data from the Surveillance System of Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL). The prevalence of regular consumption (≥5 d/week), the average daily consumption (millilitres) and the prevalence of non-consumption of these beverages were analysed. The temporal variations of the indicators were calculated by linear regression. The analyses were performed for the complete set of the evaluated population and stratified by sociodemographic characteristics.

Setting

Brazilian capitals and Federal District.

Subjects

Brazilian adults aged ≥18 years (n 519 641).

Results

There was a reduction in both regular and average daily consumption of sugar- and artificially sweetened beverages (−1·28 percentage points (pp)/year, P=0·001 and −9·63 ml/year, P=0·001, respectively). The same result regarding regular consumption was found when only sugar-sweetened beverages were analysed (−1·11 pp/year, P=0·011). Similar trends were identified in the stratified analyses, with a greater magnitude of reduction among males, young adults, those with higher schooling and residents of more developed regions. Coincidentally, there was an increase in the prevalence of adults who did not consume sweetened beverages (1·54 pp/year, P=0·005).

Conclusions

The consumption of sweetened beverages decreased during the period. However, a significant portion of the population still referred a daily consumption of these beverages.

A citizen perspective on nutritional warnings as front-of-pack labels: insights for the design of accompanying policy measures

Objective

Nutritional warnings have recently been suggested as a simplified front-of-pack nutrition labelling scheme to facilitate citizens’ ability to identify unhealthful products and discourage their consumption. However, citizens’ perspective on this policy is still under-researched. The objective of the present work was to study how citizens perceive nutritional warnings and to evaluate public support of this policy, with the goal of deriving recommendations for the design of policy measures accompanying the introduction of nutritional warnings.

Design

An online survey with 1416 Uruguayan citizens, aged 18–75 years, 61 % female, was conducted. Participants had to answer a series of questions (open-ended and multiple-choice) related to their perception of warnings as a front-of-package nutrition labelling scheme.

Results

Participants showed a positive attitude towards nutritional warnings, which were regarded as easy to understand and to identify on food packages. The majority of respondents emphasized that they would take nutritional warnings into account when making their food choices, stating that they would allow them to make informed choices and, consequently, to increase the quality of their diet and their health status. Health motivation appeared as a crucial driver for taking nutritional warnings into consideration.

Conclusions

A high level of public support for nutritional warnings was observed. Responses can be used to derive a range of recommendations for a policy mix that should synergistically support the introduction of nutritional warnings and encourage citizens to take them into account when making their food purchases.

Five year trends in the serve size, energy, and sodium contents of New Zealand fast foods: 2012 to 2016

BACKGROUND

The nutritional composition of foods and beverages consumed away from the home has important implications for population health. Our objective was to determine if the serve size, energy, and sodium contents of fast foods sold at chain restaurants in New Zealand (NZ) changed between 2012 and 2016.

METHODS

Serve size and nutrient data were collected in annual cross-sectional surveys of all products sold at 10 major fast food chains. Changes over time may occur due to alterations in product availability or individual product reformulation. Linear regression adjusting for food group and chain was used to estimate overall changes in serve size and nutrients. Random effects mixed models were used to estimate reformulation changes on same products available for two or more years.

RESULTS

Across all products (n = 5468) increases were observed in mean serve size (+ 9 (3, 15) g, + 5%), energy density (+ 54 (27, 81) kJ/100 g, + 6%), energy per serve (+ 178 (125, 231) kJ, + 14%), and sodium per serve (+ 55 (24, 87) mg, + 12%). Sodium density did not change significantly. Four of 12 food groups (Desserts, Pizza, Sandwiches, and Salads) and four of 10 fast food chains (Domino's, Hell Pizza, Pizza Hut, and Subway) displayed large, undesirable changes for three or more (of five) outcomes (≥10%; p < 0.05). One food group (Asian) and one chain (St Pierre's) displayed large, desirable changes for two or more outcomes. The only significant reformulation change was a drop in sodium density (- 22 (- 36, - 8) mg/100 g, - 7%).

CONCLUSIONS

The serve size and energy density of NZ fast food products has increased significantly over the past 5 years. Lower sodium concentration in new and reformulated products has been offset by overall increases in serve size. Continued monitoring and development and implementation of Government-led targets for serve size and nutrient content of new and existing fast food products are required.

Chile's 2014 sugar-sweetened beverage tax and changes in prices and purchases of sugar-sweetened beverages: An observational study in an urban environment

BACKGROUND

On October 1, 2014, the Chilean government modified its previous sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, increasing the tax rate from 13% to 18% on industrialized beverages with high levels of sugar (H-SSBs) (greater than 6.25 grams [g] sugar/100 milliliters [mL]) and decreasing the tax rate from 13% to 10% on industrialized beverages with low or no sugar (L-SSBs) (less than 6.25 g sugar/100 mL). This study examines changes in beverage prices and household beverage purchases following the implementation of the tax reform.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used longitudinal data collected between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2015, from 2,000 households. We defined the pretax period as January 1, 2013, to September 30, 2014, and the posttax period as October 1, 2014, to December 31, 2015. We conducted a pre-post analysis for changes in prices and purchases, with the latter examined by volume and calories. We compared posttax changes in prices and purchases to a counterfactual, defined as what would have been expected in the posttax period based on pretax trends. All results are stated as comparisons to this counterfactual. We linked beverages at the bar code level to nutrition facts panel data collected by a team of Chilean nutritionists who categorized them by taxation level and beverage subcategory, which included carbonated and noncarbonated H-SSBs and concentrated, ready-to-drink L-SSBs and untaxed beverages. We reconstituted concentrated beverages and analyzed all beverages using as-consumed volumes and calories. Posttax monthly prices of H-SSBs increased, but these changes were small. Prices of carbonated H-SSBs increased by 2.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0%-3.0%), while those of noncarbonated H-SSBs increased by 3.9% (95% CI 1.6%-6.2%). Prices of L-SSB concentrates decreased after the tax by 6.7% (95% CI -8.2%--4.6%), and prices of ready-to-drink L-SSBs increased by 1.5% (95% CI 0.3%-2.7%). Households decreased monthly per capita purchases of H-SSBs by 3.4% by volume (95% CI -5.9%--0.9%) and 4.0% by calories (95% CI -6.3%--1.9%), and this change was greater among high socioeconomic status (SES) households. The volume of household purchases of L-SSBs increased 10.7% (95% CI 7.5%-13.9%), while that of untaxed beverage purchases decreased by 3.1% (95% CI -5.1%--1.1%). The main limitation of this study was that there was no control group, so we were unable to assess the causal impact of the tax.

CONCLUSIONS

The modifications of Chile's SSB tax were small, and observed changes in prices and purchases of beverages after the tax were also small. Our results are consistent with previous evidence indicating that small increases in SSB taxes are unlikely to promote large enough changes in SSB purchases to reduce obesity and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs).