Contribution of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding routes to RNA loads in wastewater

Developing wastewater-based surveillance schemes for multiple pathogens: The WastPan project in Finland

Wastewater comprises multiple pathogens and offers a potential for wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) to track the prevalence of communicable diseases. The Finnish WastPan project aimed to establish wastewater-based pandemic preparedness for multiple pathogens (viruses, bacteria, parasites, fungi), including antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This article outlines WastPan's experiences in this project, including the criteria for target selection, sampling locations, frequency, analysis methods, and results communication. Target selection relied on epidemiological and microbiological evidence and practical feasibility. Within the WastPan framework, wastewater samples were collected between 2021 and 2023 from 10 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) covering 40 % of Finland's population. WWTP selection was validated for reported cases of Extended Spectrum Beta-lactamase-producing bacterial pathogens (Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae) from the National Infectious Disease Register. The workflow included 24-h composite influent samples, with one fraction for culture-based analysis (bacteria and fungi) and the rest of the sample was reserved for molecular analysis (viruses, bacteria, antibiotic resistance genes, and parasites). The reproducibility of the monitoring workflow was assessed for SARS-CoV-2 through inter-laboratory comparisons using the N2 and N1 assays. Identical protocols were applied to same-day samples, yielding similar positivity trends in the two laboratories, but the N2 assay achieved a significantly higher detection rate (Laboratory 1: 91.5 %; Laboratory 2: 87.4 %) than the N1 assay (76.6 %) monitored only in Laboratory 2 (McNemar, p < 0.001 Lab 1, = 0.006 Lab 2). This result indicates that the selection of monitoring primers and assays may impact monitoring sensitivity in WBS. Overall, the current study recommends that the selection of sampling frequencies and population coverage of the monitoring should be based on pathogen-specific epidemiological characteristics. For example, pathogens that are stable over time may need less frequent annual sampling, while those that are occurring across regions may require reduced sample coverage. Here, WastPan successfully piloted WBS for monitoring multiple pathogens, highlighting the significance of one-litre community composite wastewater samples for assessing community health. The infrastructure established for COVID-19 WBS is valuable for monitoring various pathogens. The prioritization of the monitoring targets optimizes resource utilization. In the future legislative support in target selection, coverage determination, and sustained funding for WBS is recomended.

Environmental Surveillance of Flood Control Infrastructure Impacted by Unsheltered Individuals Leads to the Detection of SARS-CoV-2 and Novel Mutations in the Spike Gene

In the United States, the growing number of people experiencing homelessness has become a socioeconomic crisis with public health ramifications, recently exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesized that the environmental surveillance of flood control infrastructure may be an effective approach to understand the prevalence of infectious disease. From December 2021 through July 2022, we tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA from two flood control channels known to be impacted by unsheltered individuals residing in upstream tunnels. Using qPCR, we detected SARS-CoV-2 RNA in these environmental water samples when significant COVID-19 outbreaks were occurring in the surrounding community. We also performed whole genome sequencing to identify SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Variant compositions were consistent with those of geographically and temporally matched municipal wastewater samples and clinical specimens. However, we also detected 10 of 22 mutations specific to the Alpha variant in the environmental water samples collected during January 2022-one year after the Alpha infection peak. We also identified mutations in the spike gene that have never been identified in published reports. Our findings demonstrate that environmental surveillance of flood control infrastructure may be an effective tool to understand public health conditions among unsheltered individuals-a vulnerable population that is underrepresented in clinical surveillance data.

Early Detection of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants from Urban and Rural Wastewater through Genome Sequencing and Machine Learning

Genome sequencing from wastewater has emerged as an accurate and cost-effective tool for identifying SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, existing methods for analyzing wastewater sequencing data are not designed to detect novel variants that have not been characterized in humans. Here, we present an unsupervised learning approach that clusters co-varying and time-evolving mutation patterns leading to the identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants. To build our model, we sequenced 3,659 wastewater samples collected over a span of more than two years from urban and rural locations in Southern Nevada. We then developed a multivariate independent component analysis (ICA)-based pipeline to transform mutation frequencies into independent sources with co-varying and time-evolving patterns and compared variant predictions to >5,000 SARS-CoV-2 clinical genomes isolated from Nevadans. Using the source patterns as data-driven reference "barcodes", we demonstrated the model's accuracy by successfully detecting the Delta variant in late 2021, Omicron variants in 2022, and emerging recombinant XBB variants in 2023. Our approach revealed the spatial and temporal dynamics of variants in both urban and rural regions; achieved earlier detection of most variants compared to other computational tools; and uncovered unique co-varying mutation patterns not associated with any known variant. The multivariate nature of our pipeline boosts statistical power and can support accurate and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. This feature offers a unique opportunity for novel variant and pathogen detection, even in the absence of clinical testing.

Fate-and-transport modeling of SARS-CoV-2 for rural wastewater-based epidemiology application benefit

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for the detection of agents of concern such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been prevalent in literature since 2020. The majority of reported research focuses on large urban centers with few references to rural communities. In this research the EPA-Storm Water Management Model (EPA-SWMM) software was used to describe a small sewershed and identify the effects of temperature, temperature-affected decay rate, flow rate, flush time, fecal shedding rate, and historical infection rates during the spread of the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus within the sewershed. Due to the sewershed's relative isolation from the rest of the city, its wastewater quality behavior is similar to a rural sewershed. The model was used to assess city wastewater sampling campaigns to best appropriate field and or lab equipment when sampling wastewater. An important aspect of the assessment was the comparison of SARS-CoV-2 quantification methods with specifically between a traditional microbiological lab (practical quantitation limit, PQL, 1 GC/mL) versus what can be known from a field method (PQL 10 GC/mL). Understanding these monitoring choices will help rural communities make decisions on how to best implement the collection and testing for WBE agents of concern. An important outcome of this work is the knowledge that it is possible to simulate a WBE agent of concern with reasonable precision, if uncertainties are incorporated into model sensitivity. These ideas could form the basis for future mixed monitoring-modeling studies that will enhance its application and therefore adoption of WBE techniques in communities of many sizes and financial means.

Wastewater-based surveillance as a tool for public health action: SARS-CoV-2 and beyond

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has undergone dramatic advancement in the context of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The power and potential of this platform technology were rapidly realized when it became evident that not only did WBS-measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlate strongly with COVID-19 clinical disease within monitored populations but also, in fact, it functioned as a leading indicator. Teams from across the globe rapidly innovated novel approaches by which wastewater could be collected from diverse sewersheds ranging from wastewater treatment plants (enabling community-level surveillance) to more granular locations including individual neighborhoods and high-risk buildings such as long-term care facilities (LTCF). Efficient processes enabled SARS-CoV-2 RNA extraction and concentration from the highly dilute wastewater matrix. Molecular and genomic tools to identify, quantify, and characterize SARS-CoV-2 and its various variants were adapted from clinical programs and applied to these mixed environmental systems. Novel data-sharing tools allowed this information to be mobilized and made immediately available to public health and government decision-makers and even the public, enabling evidence-informed decision-making based on local disease dynamics. WBS has since been recognized as a tool of transformative potential, providing near-real-time cost-effective, objective, comprehensive, and inclusive data on the changing prevalence of measured analytes across space and time in populations. However, as a consequence of rapid innovation from hundreds of teams simultaneously, tremendous heterogeneity currently exists in the SARS-CoV-2 WBS literature. This manuscript provides a state-of-the-art review of WBS as established with SARS-CoV-2 and details the current work underway expanding its scope to other infectious disease targets.

Optimal Selection of Sampling Points within Sewer Networks for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology Applications

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has great potential to monitor community public health, especially during pandemics. However, it faces substantial hurdles in pathogen surveillance through WBE, encompassing data representativeness, spatiotemporal variability, population estimates, pathogen decay, and environmental factors. This paper aims to enhance the reliability of WBE data, especially for early outbreak detection and improved sampling strategies within sewer networks. The tool implemented in this paper combines a monitoring model and an optimization model to facilitate the optimal selection of sampling points within sewer networks. The monitoring model utilizes parameters such as feces density and average water consumption to define the detectability of the virus that needs to be monitored. This allows for standardization and simplicity in the process of moving from the analysis of wastewater samples to the identification of infection in the source area. The entropy-based model can select optimal sampling points in a sewer network to obtain the most specific information at a minimum cost. The practicality of our tool is validated using data from Hildesheim, Germany, employing SARS-CoV-2 as a pilot pathogen. It is important to note that the tool's versatility empowers its extension to monitor other pathogens in the future.

Targeted community wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and Mpox virus during a festival mass-gathering event

Wastewater surveillance has emerged recently as a powerful approach to understanding infectious disease dynamics in densely populated zones. Wastewater surveillance, while promising as a public health tool, is often hampered by slow turn-around times, complex analytical protocols, and resource-intensive techniques. In this study, we evaluated an affinity capture method and microfluidic digital PCR as a rapid approach to quantify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) virus, and fecal indicator, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) in wastewater during a mass-gathering event. Wastewater samples (n = 131) were collected from residential and commercial manholes, pump stations, and a city's wastewater treatment plant. The use of Nanotrap® Microbiome Particles and microfluidic digital PCR produced comparable results to other established methodologies, with reduced process complexity and analytical times, providing same day results for public health preparedness and response. Using indigenous SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV in wastewater, the average viral recovery efficiency was estimated at 10.1 %. Both SARS-CoV-2 N1 and N2 genes were consistently detected throughout the sampling period, with increased RNA concentrations mainly in wastewater samples collected from commercial area after festival mass gatherings. The mpox virus was sporadically detected in wastewater samples during the surveillance period, without distinct temporal trends. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the city's wastewater mirrored the city's COVID-19 cases, confirming the predictive properties of wastewater surveillance. Wastewater surveillance continues to be beneficial for tracking diseases that display gastrointestinal symptoms, including SARS-CoV-2, and can be a powerful tool for sentinel surveillance. However, careful site selection and a thorough understanding of community dynamics are necessary when performing targeted surveillance during temporary mass-gathering events as potential confirmation bias may occur.

Positive association of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Singapore - A study across three populations

Wastewater testing of SARS-CoV-2 has been adopted globally and has shown to be a useful, non-intrusive surveillance method for monitoring COVID-19 trends. In Singapore, wastewater surveillance has been widely implemented across various sites and has facilitated timely COVID-19 management and response. From April 2020 to February 2022, SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater monitored across three populations, nationally, in the community, and in High Density Living Environments (HDLEs) were aggregated into indices and compared with reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations. Temporal trends and associations of these indices were compared descriptively and quantitatively, using Poisson Generalised Linear Models and Generalised Additive Models. National vaccination rates and vaccine breakthrough infection rates were additionally considered as confounders to shedding. Fitted models quantified the temporal associations between the indices and cases and COVID-related hospitalisations. At the national level, the wastewater index was a leading indicator of COVID-19 cases (p-value <0.001) of one week, and a contemporaneous association with hospitalisations (p-value <0.001) was observed. At finer levels of surveillance, the community index was observed to be contemporaneously associated with COVID-19 cases (p-value <0.001) and had a lagging association of 1-week in HDLEs (p-value <0.001). These temporal differences were attributed to differences in testing routines for different sites during the study period and the timeline of COVID-19 progression in infected persons. Overall, this study demonstrates the utility of wastewater surveillance in understanding underlying COVID-19 transmission and shedding levels, particularly for areas with falling or low case ascertainment. In such settings, wastewater surveillance showed to be a lead indicator of COVID-19 cases. The findings also underscore the potential of wastewater surveillance for monitoring other infectious diseases threats.

Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota

The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first detected in December 2019, which prompted many researchers to investigate how the virus spreads. SARS-CoV-2 is mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets. Symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus appear after an incubation period. Moreover, the asymptomatic infected individuals unknowingly spread the virus. Detecting infected people requires daily tests and contact tracing, which are expensive. The early detection of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, can be achieved with wastewater-based epidemiology, which is timely and cost-effective. In this study, we collected wastewater samples from wastewater treatment plants in several cities in North Dakota and then extracted viral RNA copies. We used log-RNA copies in the model to predict the number of infected cases using Quantile Regression (QR) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) Regression. The model's performance was evaluated by comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The QR model performs well in cities where the population is >10000 . In addition, the model predictions were compared with the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model which is the golden standard model for infectious diseases.

Unveiling indicator, enteric, and respiratory viruses in aircraft lavatory wastewater using adsorption-extraction and Nanotrap® Microbiome A Particles workflows

The effective detection of viruses in aircraft wastewater is crucial to establish surveillance programs for monitoring virus spread via aircraft passengers. This study aimed to compare the performance of two virus concentration workflows, adsorption-extraction (AE) and Nanotrap® Microbiome A Particles (NMAP), in detecting the prevalence and concentrations of 15 endogenous viruses including ssDNA, dsDNA, ssRNA in 24 aircraft lavatory wastewater samples. The viruses tested included two indicator viruses, four enteric viruses, and nine respiratory viruses. The results showed that cross-assembly phage (crAssphage), human polyomavirus (HPyV), rhinovirus A (RhV A), and rhinovirus B (RhV B) were detected in all wastewater samples using both workflows. However, enterovirus (EV), human norovirus GII (HNoV GII), human adenovirus (HAdV), bocavirus (BoV), parechovirus (PeV), epstein-barr virus (EBV). Influenza A virus (IAV), and respiratory syncytial virus B (RsV B) were infrequently detected by both workflows, and hepatitis A virus (HAV), influenza B virus (IBV), and respiratory syncytial virus B (RsV A) were not detected in any samples. The NMAP workflow had greater detection rates of RNA viruses (EV, PeV, and RsV B) than the AE workflow, while the AE workflow had greater detection rates of DNA viruses (HAdV, BoV, and EBV) than the NMAP workflow. The concentration of each virus was also analyzed, and the results showed that crAssphage had the highest mean concentration (6.76 log10 GC/12.5 mL) followed by HPyV (5.46 log10 GC/12.5 mL using the AE workflow, while the mean concentrations of enteric and respiratory viruses ranged from 2.48 to 3.63 log10 GC/12.5 mL. Using the NMAP workflow, the mean concentration of crAssphage was 5.18 log10 GC/12.5 mL and the mean concentration of HPyV was 4.20 log10 GC/12.5 mL, while mean concentrations of enteric and respiratory viruses ranged from 2.55 to 3.74 log10 GC/12.5 mL. Significantly higher (p < 0.05) mean concentrations of crAssphage and HPyV were observed when employing the AE workflow in comparison to the NMAP workflow. Conversely, the NMAP workflow yielded significantly greater (p < 0.05) concentrations of RhV A, and RhV B compared to the AE workflow. The findings of this study can aid in the selection of an appropriate concentration workflow for virus surveillance studies and contribute to the development of efficient virus detection methods.

Making waves: Establishing a modeling framework to evaluate novel targets for wastewater-based surveillance

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) monitoring of pathogens circulating within a community provides an improved understanding of the occurrence and spread of infectious diseases. However, the potential suitability of WBS for novel disease targets is unclear, including many emerging and neglected diseases. The current ad hoc approach of conducting wastewater detection experiments on novel disease targets to determine their suitability for WBS monitoring is resource intensive and may stall investment in this promising technology. In addition, detections, or non-detections, without the context of disease prevalence and shedding by infected individuals are difficult to interpret upon initial WBS target development. In this paper, we present a WBS feasibility analysis framework to identify which diseases are theoretically appropriate for WBS applications and to improve the initial interpretation of target detections. We then discuss five primary factors that influence the probability of detection in WBS monitoring - genome shedding rate, infection rate, per capita wastewater usage, process limit of detection (PLOD), and the number of PCR replicates. Clarifying the relationships between these factors and the likelihood of detection enhances quantitative insights into applying WBS, guiding researchers and stakeholders into mitigating inherent uncertainties of wastewater monitoring and subsequent improvements in WBS outcomes, thereby supporting future investment and expansion of WBS research, especially in novel disease targets.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for prevalence estimation and investigating clinical diagnostic test biases

Here we analyze SARS-CoV-2 genome copies in Catalonia's wastewater during the Omicron peak and develop a mathematical model to estimate the number of infections and the temporal relationship between reported and unreported cases. 1-liter samples from 16 wastewater treatment plants were collected and used in a compartmental epidemiological model. The average correlation between genome copies and reported cases was 0.85, with an average delay of 8.8 days. The model estimated that 53% of the population was infected, compared to the 19% reported cases. The under-reporting was highest in November and December 2021. The maximum genome copies shed in feces by an infected individual was estimated to range from 1.4×108 gc/g to 4.4×108 gc/g. Our framework demonstrates the potential of wastewater data as a leading indicator for daily new infections, particularly in contexts with low detection rates. It also serves as a complementary tool for prevalence estimation and offers a general approach for integrating wastewater data into compartmental models.

Wastewater-based epidemiology predicts COVID-19-induced weekly new hospital admissions in over 150 USA counties

Although the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emergency status is easing, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect healthcare systems globally. It is crucial to have a reliable and population-wide prediction tool for estimating COVID-19-induced hospital admissions. We evaluated the feasibility of using wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) to predict COVID-19-induced weekly new hospitalizations in 159 counties across 45 states in the United States of America (USA), covering a population of nearly 100 million. Using county-level weekly wastewater surveillance data (over 20 months), WBE-based models were established through the random forest algorithm. WBE-based models accurately predicted the county-level weekly new admissions, allowing a preparation window of 1-4 weeks. In real applications, periodically updated WBE-based models showed good accuracy and transferability, with mean absolute error within 4-6 patients/100k population for upcoming weekly new hospitalization numbers. Our study demonstrated the potential of using WBE as an effective method to provide early warnings for healthcare systems.

Expansion of wastewater-based disease surveillance to improve health equity in California's Central Valley: sequential shifts in case-to-wastewater and hospitalization-to-wastewater ratios

Introduction

Over a third of the communities (39%) in the Central Valley of California, a richly diverse and important agricultural region, are classified as disadvantaged-with inadequate access to healthcare, lower socio-economic status, and higher exposure to air and water pollution. The majority of racial and ethnic minorities are also at higher risk of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Healthy Central Valley Together established a wastewater-based disease surveillance (WDS) program that aims to achieve greater health equity in the region through partnership with Central Valley communities and the Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network. WDS offers a cost-effective strategy to monitor trends in SARS-CoV-2 community infection rates.

Methods

In this study, we evaluated correlations between public health and wastewater data (represented as SARS-CoV-2 target gene copies normalized by pepper mild mottle virus target gene copies) collected for three Central Valley communities over two periods of COVID-19 infection waves between October 2021 and September 2022. Public health data included clinical case counts at county and sewershed scales as well as COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admissions. Lag-adjusted hospitalization:wastewater ratios were also evaluated as a retrospective metric of disease severity and corollary to hospitalization:case ratios.

Results

Consistent with other studies, strong correlations were found between wastewater and public health data. However, a significant reduction in case:wastewater ratios was observed for all three communities from the first to the second wave of infections, decreasing from an average of 4.7 ± 1.4 over the first infection wave to 0.8 ± 0.4 over the second.

Discussion

The decline in case:wastewater ratios was likely due to reduced clinical testing availability and test seeking behavior, highlighting how WDS can fill data gaps associated with under-reporting of cases. Overall, the hospitalization:wastewater ratios remained more stable through the two waves of infections, averaging 0.5 ± 0.3 and 0.3 ± 0.4 over the first and second waves, respectively.

Prediction of hospitalisations based on wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology is widely applied in Austria since April 2020 to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. With a steadily increasing number of monitored wastewater facilities, 123 plants covering roughly 70 % of the 9 million population were monitored as of August 2022. In this study, the SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in raw sewage were analysed to infer short-term hospitalisation occupancy. The temporal lead of wastewater-based epidemiological time series over hospitalisation occupancy levels facilitates the construction of forecast models. Data pre-processing techniques are presented, including the approach of comparing multiple decentralised wastewater signals with aggregated and centralised clinical data. Time‑lead quantification was performed using cross-correlation analysis and coefficient of determination optimisation approaches. Multivariate regression models were successfully applied to infer hospitalisation bed occupancy. The results show a predictive potential of viral loads in sewage towards Covid-19 hospitalisation occupancy, with an average lead time towards ICU and non-ICU bed occupancy between 14.8-17.7 days and 8.6-11.6 days, respectively. The presented procedure provides access to the trend and tipping point behaviour of pandemic dynamics and allows the prediction of short-term demand for public health services. The results showed an increase in forecast accuracy with an increase in the number of monitored wastewater treatment plants. Trained models are sensitive to changing variant types and require recalibration of model parameters, likely caused by immunity by vaccination and/or infection. The utilised approach displays a practical and rapidly implementable application of wastewater-based epidemiology to infer hospitalisation occupancy.

Wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA at K-12 schools: comparison to pooled clinical testing data

Background

Wastewater measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA have been extensively used to supplement clinical data on COVID-19. Most examples in the literature that describe wastewater monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 RNA use samples from wastewater treatment plants and individual buildings that serve as the primary residence of community members. However, wastewater surveillance can be an attractive supplement to clinical testing in K-12 schools where individuals only spend a portion of their time but interact with others in close proximity, increasing risk of potential transmission of disease.

Methods

Wastewater samples were collected from two K-12 schools in California and divided into solid and liquid fractions to be processed for detection of SARS-CoV-2. The resulting detection rate in each wastewater fraction was compared to each other and the detection rate in pooled clinical specimens.

Results

Most wastewater samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA when clinical testing was positive (75% for solid samples and 100% for liquid samples). Wastewater samples continued to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA when clinical testing was negative or in absence of clinical testing (83% for both solid and liquid samples), indicating presence of infected individuals in the schools. Wastewater solids had a higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 than wastewater liquids on an equivalent mass basis by three orders of magnitude.

Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples from hospitals treating COVID-19 patients during the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a global health crisis, and wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as an important tool to assist public health decision-making. Recent studies have shown that the SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater samples is a reliable indicator of the severity of the pandemic for large populations. However, few studies have established a strong correlation between the number of infected people and the viral concentration in wastewater due to variations in viral shedding over time, viral decay, infiltration, and inflow. Herein we present the relationship between the number of COVID-19-positive patients and the viral concentration in wastewater samples from three different hospitals (A, B, and C) in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. A positive and strong correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentration and the number of confirmed cases was observed for Hospital B for both regions of the N gene (R = 0.89 and 0.77 for N1 and N2, respectively), while samples from Hospitals A and C showed low and moderate correlations, respectively. Even though the effects of viral decay and infiltration were minimized in our study, the variability of viral shedding throughout the infection period and feces dilution due to water usage for different activities in the hospitals could have affected the viral concentrations. These effects were prominent in Hospital A, which had the smallest sewershed population size, and where no correlation between the number of defecations from COVID-19 patients and viral concentration in wastewater was observed. Although we could not determine trends in the number of infected patients through SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in hospitals' wastewater samples, our results suggest that wastewater monitoring can be efficient for the detection of infected individuals at a local level, complementing clinical data.

SARS-CoV-2 genetic material is removed during municipal wastewater treatment and is undetectable after advanced treatment

The aim of this study was to establish whether SARS-CoV-2 genetic material is detectable after municipal wastewater treatment and to verify its expected removal from purified water that is reclaimed for potable reuse. Viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 (N1 and N2 genes) were monitored in raw influent wastewater (sewage) entering a water reclamation facility and in subsequent advanced treatment. Despite the large viral RNA load in raw sewage during peak COVID-19 outbreaks, substantial amounts of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material were removed during the conventional wastewater treatment process. Further, SARS-CoV-2 genetic material was undetectable after advanced purification. This confirms that potable reuse is resilient against high viral loads which are expected results given the advanced degree of wastewater and water treatment. Findings from this study may enhance public perception of the safety of potable water reuse; however, it should also be noted that studies to date worldwide indicate no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via water, and the CDC does not consider fecal waste or wastewaters as a source of exposure.

Variant-specific SARS-CoV-2 shedding rates in wastewater

Previous studies show that SARS-CoV-2 waste shedding rates vary by community and are influenced by multiple factors; however, differences in shedding rates across multiple variants have yet to be evaluated. The purpose of this work is to build on previous research that evaluated waste shedding rates for early SARS-CoV-2 and the Delta variant, and update population level waste shedding rates for the more-recent Omicron variant in six communities. Mean SARS-CoV-2 waste shedding rates were found to increase with the predominance of the Delta variant and subsequently decrease with Omicron infections. Interestingly, the Delta stage had the highest mean shedding rates and was associated with the most severe disease symptoms reported in other clinical studies, while Omicron, exhibiting reduced symptoms, had the lowest mean shedding rates. Additionally, shedding rates were most consistent across communities during the Omicron stage. This is the first paper to identify waste shedding rates specific to the Omicron variant and fills a knowledge gap critical to disease prevalence modeling.

Development of quantitative wastewater surveillance models facilitated the precise epidemic management of COVID-19

Wastewater surveillance serves as a promising approach to elucidate the silent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in communities. To understand the decay of the coronavirus in sewage pipes, the decay of the coronavirus traveling over 20 km distance of pipeline was analyzed. Based on the decay model, a WWTP and a community model were then proposed for predicting COVID-19 cases in Xi'an and Nanchang city during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2021 and 2022. The results suggested that Monte Carol simulations estimated 23.3, 50.1, 127.3 and 524.2 infected persons in the Yanta district of Xi'an city on December 14th, 18th, 22nd and 26th of 2021, respectively, which is largely consistent with the clinical reports. Next, we further conducted wastewater surveillance in two WWTPs that covered the whole metropolitan region in Nanchang to validate the robustness of the WWTP model from December 2021 to April 2022. SARS-CoV-2 signals were detected in two WWTPs from March 15th to April 5th. Predicted infection numbers were in agreement with the actual infection cases, which promoted precise epidemic control. Finally, community wastewater surveillance was conducted for 40 communities that were not 100 % covered by massive nucleic acid testing in Nanchang city, which accurately identified the SARS-CoV-2 carriers not detected by massive nucleic acid testing. In conclusion, accurate prediction of COVID-19 cases based on WWTP and community models promoted precise epidemic control. This work highlights the viability of wastewater surveillance for outbreak evaluation and identification of hidden cases, which provides an extraordinary example for implementing precise epidemic control of COVID-19.

Suitability of aircraft wastewater for pathogen detection and public health surveillance

International air travel is now widely recognised as one of the primary mechanisms responsible for the transnational movement and global spread of SARS-CoV-2. Monitoring the viral load and novel lineages within human-derived wastewater collected from aircraft and at air transport hubs has been proposed as an effective way to monitor the importation frequency of viral pathogens. The success of this approach, however, is highly dependent on the bathroom and defecation habits of air passengers during their journey. In this study of UK adults (n = 2103), we quantified the likelihood of defecation prior to departure, on the aircraft and upon arrival on both short- and long-haul flights. The results were then used to assess the likelihood of capturing the signal from infected individuals at UK travel hubs. To obtain a representative cross-section of the population, the survey was stratified by geographical region, gender, age, parenting status, and social class. We found that an individual's likelihood to defecate on short-haul flights (< 6 h in duration) was low (< 13 % of the total), but was higher on long-haul flights (< 36 %; > 6 h in duration). This behaviour pattern was higher among males and younger age groups. The maximum likelihood of defecation was prior to departure (< 39 %). Based on known SARS-CoV-2 faecal shedding rates (30-60 %) and an equal probability of infected individuals being on short- (71 % of inbound flights) and long-haul flights (29 %), we estimate that aircraft wastewater is likely to capture ca. 8-14 % of SARS-CoV-2 cases entering the UK. Monte Carlo simulations predicted that SARS-CoV-2 would be present in wastewater on 14 % of short-haul flights and 62 % of long-haul flights under current pandemic conditions. We conclude that aircraft wastewater alone is insufficient to effectively monitor all the transboundary entries of faecal-borne pathogens but can form part of a wider strategy for public heath surveillance at national borders.

Does normalization of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations by Pepper Mild Mottle Virus improve correlations and lead time between wastewater surveillance and clinical data in Alberta (Canada): comparing twelve SARS-CoV-2 normalization approaches

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) data normalization is an analyte measurement correction that addresses variations resulting from dilution of fecal discharge by non-sanitary sewage, stormwater or groundwater infiltration. No consensus exists on what WBS normalization parameters result in the strongest correlations and lead time between SARS-CoV-2 WBS data and COVID-19 cases. This study compared flow, population size and biomarker normalization impacts on the correlations and lead times for ten communities in twelve sewersheds in Alberta (Canada) between September 2020 and October 2021 (n = 1024) to determine if normalization by Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV) provides any advantages compared to other normalization parameters (e.g., flow, reported and dynamic population sizes, BOD, TSS, NH3, TP). PMMoV concentrations (GC/mL) corresponded with plant influent flows and were highest in the urban centres. SARS-CoV-2 target genes E, N1 and N2 were all negatively associated with wastewater influent pH, while PMMoV was positively associated with temperature. Pooled data analysis showed that normalization increased ρ-values by almost 0.1 and was highest for ammonia, TKN and TP followed by PMMoV. Normalization by other parameters weakened associations. None of the differences were statistically significant. Site-specific correlations showed that normalization of SARS-CoV-2 data by PMMoV only improved correlations significantly in two of the twelve systems; neither were large sewersheds or combined sewer systems. In five systems, normalization by traditional wastewater strength parameters and dynamic population estimates improved correlations. Lead time ranged between 1 and 4 days in both pooled and site-specific comparisons. We recommend that WBS researchers and health departments: a) Investigate WWTP influent properties (e.g., pH) in the WBS planning phase and use at least two parallel approaches for normalization only if shown to provide value; b) Explore normalization by wastewater strength parameters and dynamic population size estimates further; and c) Evaluate purchasing an influent flow meter in small communities to support long-term WBS efforts and WWTP management.

Correlation between SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater and COVID-19 cases in community: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been considered as a promising approach for population-wide surveillance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Many studies have successfully quantified severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentration in wastewater (CRNA). However, the correlation between the CRNA and the COVID-19 clinically confirmed cases in the corresponding wastewater catchments varies and the impacts of environmental and other factors remain unclear. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to identify the correlation between CRNA and various types of clinically confirmed case numbers, including prevalence and incidence rates. The impacts of environmental factors, WBE sampling design, and epidemiological conditions on the correlation were assessed for the same datasets. The systematic review identified 133 correlation coefficients, ranging from -0.38 to 0.99. The correlation between CRNA and new cases (either daily new, weekly new, or future cases) was stronger than that of active cases and cumulative cases. These correlation coefficients were potentially affected by environmental and epidemiological conditions and WBE sampling design. Larger variations of air temperature and clinical testing coverage, and the increase of catchment size showed strong negative impacts on the correlation between CRNA and COVID-19 case numbers. Interestingly, the sampling technique had negligible impact although increasing the sampling frequency improved the correlation. These findings highlight the importance of viral shedding dynamics, in-sewer decay, WBE sampling design and clinical testing on the accurate back-estimation of COVID-19 case numbers through the WBE approach.

Wastewater to clinical case (WC) ratio of COVID-19 identifies insufficient clinical testing, onset of new variants of concern and population immunity in urban communities

Clinical testing has been the cornerstone of public health monitoring and infection control efforts in communities throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. With the anticipated reduction of clinical testing as the disease moves into an endemic state, SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance (WWS) will have greater value as an important diagnostic tool. An in-depth analysis and understanding of the metrics derived from WWS is required to interpret and utilize WWS-acquired data effectively (McClary-Gutierrez et al., 2021; O'Keeffe, 2021). In this study, the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater signal to clinical cases (WC) ratio was investigated across seven cities in Canada over periods ranging from 8 to 21 months. This work demonstrates that significant increases in the WC ratio occurred when clinical testing eligibility was modified to appointment-only testing, identifying a period of insufficient clinical testing (resulting in a reduction to testing access and a reduction in the number of daily tests) in these communities, despite increases in the wastewater signal. Furthermore, the WC ratio decreased significantly in 6 of the 7 studied locations, serving as a potential signal of the emergence of the Alpha variant of concern (VOC) in a relatively non-immunized community (40-60 % allelic proportion), while a more muted decrease in the WC ratio signaled the emergence of the Delta VOC in a relatively well-immunized community (40-60 % allelic proportion). Finally, a significant decrease in the WC ratio signaled the emergence of the Omicron VOC, likely because of the variant's greater effectiveness at evading immunity, leading to a significant number of new reported clinical cases, even when community immunity was high. The WC ratio, used as an additional monitoring metric, could complement clinical case counts and wastewater signals as individual metrics in its potential ability to identify important epidemiological occurrences, adding value to WWS as a diagnostic technology during the COVID-19 pandemic and likely for future pandemics.

A Framework for Public Health Authorities to Evaluate Health Determinants for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology

BACKGROUND

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is rapidly developing as a powerful public health tool. It can provide information about a wide range of health determinants (HDs), including community exposure to environmental hazards, trends in consumption of licit and illicit substances, spread of infectious diseases, and general community health. As such, the list of possible candidate HDs for WBE is almost limitless. Consequently, a means to evaluate and prioritize suitable candidates for WBE is useful, particularly for public health authorities, who often face resource constraints.

OBJECTIVES

We have developed a framework to assist public health authorities to decide what HDs may be appropriate for WBE and what biomarkers could be used. This commentary reflects the experience of the authors, who work at the interface of research and public health implementation.

DISCUSSION

To be suitable for WBE, a candidate HD should address a public health or scientific issue that would benefit from better understanding at the population level. For HDs where information on individual exposures or stratification by population subgroups is required, WBE is less suitable. Where other methodologies are already used to monitor the candidate HD, consideration must be given to whether WBE could provide better or complementary information to the current approach. An essential requirement of WBE is a biomarker specific for the candidate HD. A biomarker in this context refers to any human-excreted chemical or biological that could act as an indicator of consumption or exposure to an environmental hazard or of the human health state. Suitable biomarkers should meet several criteria outlined in this commentary, which requires background knowledge for both the biomarker and the HD. An evaluation tree summarizing key considerations for public health authorities when assessing the suitability of candidate HDs for WBE and an example evaluation are presented. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11115.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 genome and detection of variants of concern in wastewater influent from two metropolitan areas in Arkansas

Although SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe illness and death, a percentage of the infected population is asymptomatic. This, along with other factors, such as insufficient diagnostic testing and underreporting due to self-testing, contributes to the silent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and highlights the importance of implementing additional surveillance tools. The fecal shedding of the virus from infected individuals enables its detection in community wastewater, and this has become a valuable public health tool worldwide as it allows the monitoring of the disease on a populational scale. Here, we monitored the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and its dynamic genomic changes in wastewater sampled from two metropolitan areas in Arkansas during major surges of COVID-19 cases and assessed how the viral titers in these samples related to the clinical case counts between late April 2020 and January 2022. The levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were quantified by reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) using a set of TaqMan assays targeting three different viral genes (encoding ORF1ab polyprotein, surface glycoprotein, and nucleocapsid phosphoprotein). An allele-specific RT-qPCR approach was used to screen the samples for SARS-CoV-2 mutations. The identity and genetic diversity of the virus were further investigated through amplicon-based RNA sequencing, and SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were detected in wastewater samples throughout the duration of this study. Our data show how changes in the virus genome can affect the sensitivity of specific RT-qPCR assays used in COVID-19 testing with the surge of new variants. A significant association was observed between viral titers in wastewater and recorded number of COVID-19 cases in the areas studied, except when assays failed to detect targets due to the presence of particular variants. These findings support the use of wastewater surveillance as a reliable complementary tool for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 and its genetic variants at the community level.

Predicting COVID-19 Infected Individuals in a Defined Population from Wastewater RNA Data

Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 RNA has become an important tool for tracking the presence of the virus and serving as an early indicator for the onset of rapid transmission. Nevertheless, wastewater data are still not commonly used to predict the number of infected individuals in a sewershed. The main objective of this study was to calibrate a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model using RNA copy rates in sewage (i.e., gene copies per liter times flow rate) and the number of SARS-CoV-2 saliva-test-positive infected individuals in a university student population that was subject to repeated weekly testing during the Spring 2021 semester. A strong correlation was observed between the RNA copy rates and the number of infected individuals. The parameter in the SEIR model that had the largest impact on calibration was the maximum shedding rate, resulting in a mean value of 7.72 log10 genome copies per gram of feces. Regressing the saliva-test-positive infected individuals on predictions from the SEIR model based on the RNA copy rates yielded a slope of 0.87 (SE=0.11), which is statistically consistent with a 1:1 relationship between the two. These findings demonstrate that wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 can be used to estimate the number of infected individuals in a sewershed.

Comparative Analysis of RNA-Extraction Approaches and Associated Influences on RT-qPCR of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a University Residence Hall and Quarantine Location

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) provides an early warning and trend analysis approach for determining the presence of COVID-19 in a community and complements clinical testing in assessing the population level, even as viral loads fluctuate. Here, we evaluate combinations of two wastewater concentration methods (i.e., ultrafiltration and composite supernatant-solid), four pre-RNA extraction modifications, and three nucleic acid extraction kits using two different wastewater sampling locations. These consisted of a quarantine facility containing clinically confirmed COVID-19-positive inhabitants and a university residence hall. Of the combinations examined, composite supernatant-solid with pre-RNA extraction consisting of water concentration and RNA/DNA shield performed the best in terms of speed and sensitivity. Further, of the three nucleic acid extraction kits examined, the most variability was associated with the Qiagen kit. Focusing on the quarantine facility, viral concentrations measured in wastewater were generally significantly related to positive clinical cases, with the relationship dependent on method, modification, kit, target, and normalization, although results were variable-dependent on individual time points (Kendall's Tau-b (τ) = 0.17 to 0.6) or cumulatively (Kendall's Tau-b (τ) = -0.048 to 1). These observations can support laboratories establishing protocols to perform wastewater surveillance and monitoring efforts for COVID-19.

Assessment of Concentration, Recovery, and Normalization of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from Two Wastewater Treatment Plants in Texas and Correlation with COVID-19 Cases in the Community

The purpose of this study was to conduct a correlative assessment of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater with COVID-19 cases and a systematic evaluation of the effect of using different virus concentration methods and recovery and normalization approaches. We measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations at two different wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the Bexar County of Texas from October 2020 to May 2021 (32 weeks) using reverse transcription droplet digital PCR (RT-ddPCR). We evaluated three different adsorption-extraction (AE) based virus concentration methods (acidification, addition of MgCl2, or without any pretreatment) using bovine coronavirus (BCoV) as surrogate virus and observed that the direct AE method showed the highest mean recovery. COVID-19 cases were correlated significantly with SARS-CoV-2 N1 concentrations in Salitrillo (ρ = 0.75, p < 0.001) and Martinez II (ρ = 0.68, p < 0.001) WWTPs, but normalizing to a spiked recovery control (BCoV) or a fecal marker (HF183) reduced correlations for both treatment plants. The results generated in this 32-week monitoring study will enable researchers to prioritize the virus recovery method and subsequent correlation studies for wastewater surveillance.

Genetic sequencing detected the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in wastewater a month prior to the first COVID-19 case in Ahmedabad (India)

Wastewater-based genomic surveillance can identify a huge majority of variants shed by the infected individuals within a population, which goes beyond genomic surveillance based on clinical samples (i.e., symptomatic patients only). We analyzed four samples to detect key mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome and track circulating variants in Ahmedabad during the first wave (Sep/Nov 2020) and before the second wave (in Feb 2021) of COVID-19 in India. The analysis identified a total of 34 mutations in the spike protein across samples categorized into 23 types. The spike protein mutations were linked to the VOC-21APR-02; B.1.617.2 lineage (Delta variant) with 57% frequency in wastewater samples of Feb 2021. The key spike protein mutations were T19R, L452R, T478K, D614G, & P681R and deletions at 22029 (6 bp), 28248 (6 bp), & 28271 (1 bp). Interestingly, these mutations were not seen in the samples from Sep/Nov 2020 but did appear before the massive second wave of COVID-19 cases, which in India started in early April 2021. In fact, genetic traces of the Delta variant were found in samples of early Feb 2021, more than a month before the first clinically confirmed case of this in March 2021 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. The present work describes the circulating of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Ahmedabad and confirms the consequential value of wastewater surveillance for the early detection of variants of concerns (VOCs). Such monitoring must be included as a major component of future health protection systems.

SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring in Wastewater Reveals Novel Variants and Biomarkers of Infection

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a popular tool for the early indication of community spread of infectious diseases. WBE emerged as an effective tool during the COVID-19 pandemic and has provided meaningful information to minimize the spread of infection. Here, we present a combination of analyses using the correlation of viral gene copies with clinical cases, sequencing of wastewater-derived RNA for the viral mutants, and correlative analyses of the viral gene copies with the bacterial biomarkers. Our study provides a unique platform for potentially using the WBE-derived results to predict the spread of COVID-19 and the emergence of new variants of concern. Further, we observed a strong correlation between the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and changes in the microbial community of wastewater, particularly the significant changes in bacterial genera belonging to the families of Lachnospiraceae and Actinomycetaceae. Our study shows that microbial biomarkers could be utilized as prediction tools for future infectious disease surveillance and outbreak responses. Overall, our comprehensive analyses of viral spread, variants, and novel bacterial biomarkers will add significantly to the growing body of literature on WBE and COVID-19.

Population level SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding rates determined via wastewater-based epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been utilized as an early warning tool to anticipate disease outbreaks, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, COVID-19 disease models built from wastewater-collected data have been limited by the complexities involved in estimating SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding rates. In this study, wastewater from six municipalities in Arizona and Florida with distinct demographics were monitored for SARS-CoV-2 RNA between September 2020 and December 2021. Virus concentrations with corresponding clinical case counts were utilized to estimate community-wide fecal shedding rates that encompassed all infected individuals. Analyses suggest that average SARS-CoV-2 RNA fecal shedding rates typically occurred within a consistent range (7.53-9.29 log₁₀ gc/g-feces); and yet, were unique to each community and influenced by population demographics. Age, ethnicity, and socio-economic factors may have influenced shedding rates. Interestingly, populations with median age between 30 and 39 had the greatest fecal shedding rates. Additionally, rates remained relatively constant throughout the pandemic provided conditions related to vaccination and variants were unchanged. Rates significantly increased in some communities when the Delta variant became predominant. Findings in this study suggest that community-specific shedding rates may be appropriate in model development relating wastewater virus concentrations to clinical case counts.

Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in sewage samples from specific public places and STPs to track COVID-19 spread and identify potential hotspots

Coronavirus pandemic started in March 2020 and since then has caused millions of deaths worldwide. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) can be used as an epidemiological surveillance tool to track SARS-CoV-2 dissemination and provide warning of COVID-19 outbreaks. Considering that there are public places that could be potential hotspots of infected people that may reflect the local epidemiological situation, the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was analyzed by RT-qPCR for approximately 16 months in sewage samples from five public places located in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil: the sewage treatment plant of Confins International Airport (AIR), the main interstate bus terminal (BUS), an upscale shopping centre (SHC1), a popular shopping centre (SHC2) and a university institute (UNI). The results were compared to those of the influent sewage of the two main sewage treatment plants of Belo Horizonte (STP1 and STP2). Viral monitoring in the STPs proved to be an useful regional surveillance tool, reflecting the trends of COVID-19 cases. However, the viral concentrations in the samples from the selected public places were generally much lower than those of the municipal STPs, which may be due to the behaviour of the non-infected or asymptomatic people, who are likely to visit these places relatively more than the symptomatic infected ones. Among these places, the AIR samples presented the highest viral concentrations and concentration peaks were observed previously to local outbreaks. Therefore, airport sewage monitoring can provide an indication of the regional epidemiological situation. For the other places, particularly the UNI, the results suggested a greater potential to detect the infection and trace cases especially among employees and regular attendees. Taken together, the results indicate that for a regular and permanent sentinel sewage surveillance the sewage from STPs, AIR and UNI could be monitored.

Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in sewage samples from specific public places and STPs to track COVID-19 spread and identify potential hotspots

Coronavirus pandemic started in March 2020 and since then has caused millions of deaths worldwide. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) can be used as an epidemiological surveillance tool to track SARS-CoV-2 dissemination and provide warning of COVID-19 outbreaks. Considering that there are public places that could be potential hotspots of infected people that may reflect the local epidemiological situation, the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was analyzed by RT-qPCR for approximately 16 months in sewage samples from five public places located in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil: the sewage treatment plant of Confins International Airport (AIR), the main interstate bus terminal (BUS), an upscale shopping centre (SHC1), a popular shopping centre (SHC2) and a university institute (UNI). The results were compared to those of the influent sewage of the two main sewage treatment plants of Belo Horizonte (STP1 and STP2). Viral monitoring in the STPs proved to be an useful regional surveillance tool, reflecting the trends of COVID-19 cases. However, the viral concentrations in the samples from the selected public places were generally much lower than those of the municipal STPs, which may be due to the behaviour of the non-infected or asymptomatic people, who are likely to visit these places relatively more than the symptomatic infected ones. Among these places, the AIR samples presented the highest viral concentrations and concentration peaks were observed previously to local outbreaks. Therefore, airport sewage monitoring can provide an indication of the regional epidemiological situation. For the other places, particularly the UNI, the results suggested a greater potential to detect the infection and trace cases especially among employees and regular attendees. Taken together, the results indicate that for a regular and permanent sentinel sewage surveillance the sewage from STPs, AIR and UNI could be monitored.

Research needs for optimising wastewater-based epidemiology monitoring for public health protection

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an unobtrusive method used to observe patterns in illicit drug use, poliovirus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The pandemic and need for surveillance measures have led to the rapid acceleration of WBE research and development globally. With the infrastructure available to monitor SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater in 58 countries globally, there is potential to expand targets and applications for public health protection, such as other viral pathogens, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), pharmaceutical consumption, or exposure to chemical pollutants. Some applications have been explored in academic research but are not used to inform public health decision-making. We reflect on the current knowledge of WBE for these applications and identify barriers and opportunities for expanding beyond SARS-CoV-2. This paper critically reviews the applications of WBE for public health and identifies the important research gaps for WBE to be a useful tool in public health. It considers possible uses for pathogenic viruses, AMR, and chemicals. It summarises the current evidence on the following: (1) the presence of markers in stool and urine; (2) environmental factors influencing persistence of markers in wastewater; (3) methods for sample collection and storage; (4) prospective methods for detection and quantification; (5) reducing uncertainties; and (6) further considerations for public health use.

Integration of renewable energy in wastewater treatment during COVID-19 pandemic: Challenges, opportunities, and progressive research trends

SARS-CoV-2 has aroused drastic effects on the global economy and public health. In response to this, personal protective equipment, hand hygiene, and social distancing have been considered the most important ways to prevent the direct spread of the virus. SARS-CoV-2 would be possible survive in wastewater for a few days, leading to secondary transmission via contact with water and wastewater. Thus, the most economical and practical approaches for decentralized wastewater treatment are renewable energies such as the solar energy disinfestation process. However, as freshwater requirements increase and fossil fuels become unsustainable, renewable energy becomes more attractive for desalination applications. Solar photovoltaic, membrane-based, and electricity desalination technologies are becoming increasingly popular due to their lower energy requirements. Several aquatic environments could be benefitted from solar energy wastewater disinfection. Besides, utilizing solar energy during the day can inactivate SARS-CoV-2 to nearly 90%. However, conventional membrane-based desalination practices have also been integrated, including reverse osmosis (RO) and electrodialysis (ED). Several exciting membrane processes have been developed recently, including membrane distillation (MD), pressure-reduced osmosis (PRO), and reverse electrodialysis (RED). Such operations can produce clean and sustainable electricity from brine and impaired water, generally considered hazardous to the environment. As a result, neither PRO nor RED can produce electricity without mixing a high salinity solution (such as seawater or brine and wastewater, respectively) with a low salinity solution. Herein, we critically review the progress in applying renewable energy such as solar energy and geothermal energy for generating electricity from wastewater treatment and uniquely discuss the effects of these two types of renewable energy on SARS-CoV-2 in air and wastewater treatment. We also highlight the significant process made on the membrane processes utilizing renewable energy and research gaps from the standpoint of producing clean and sustainable energy. The significant points of this review are: (1) among various types of renewable energy, solar energy and geothermal energy have been predominantly studied for wastewater treatment, (2) effects of these two types of renewable energy on SARS-CoV-2 in air and wastewater treatment are critically analyzed, and (3) the knowledge gaps and anticipated future research outlook have been consequently proposed thereof.

Use of wastewater surveillance for early detection of Alpha and Epsilon SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and estimation of overall COVID-19 infection burden

A decline in diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 is expected to delay the tracking of COVID-19 variants of concern and interest in the United States. We hypothesize that wastewater surveillance programs provide an effective alternative for detecting emerging variants and assessing COVID-19 incidence, particularly when clinical surveillance is limited. Here, we analyzed SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater from eight locations across Southern Nevada between March 2020 and April 2021. Trends in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations (ranging from 4.3 log₁₀ gc/L to 8.7 log₁₀ gc/L) matched trends in confirmed COVID-19 incidence, but wastewater surveillance also highlighted several limitations with the clinical data. Amplicon-based whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 86 wastewater samples identified the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.429 (Epsilon) lineages in December 2020, but clinical sequencing failed to identify the variants until January 2021, thereby demonstrating that 'pooled' wastewater samples can sometimes expedite variant detection. Also, by calibrating fecal shedding (11.4 log₁₀ gc/infection) and wastewater surveillance data to reported seroprevalence, we estimate that ~38% of individuals in Southern Nevada had been infected by SARS-CoV-2 as of April 2021, which is significantly higher than the 10% of individuals confirmed through clinical testing. Sewershed-specific ascertainment ratios (i.e., X-fold infection undercounts) ranged from 1.0 to 7.7, potentially due to demographic differences. Our data underscore the growing application of wastewater surveillance in not only the identification and quantification of infectious agents, but also the detection of variants of concern that may be missed when diagnostic testing is limited or unavailable.

Passive sampling to scale wastewater surveillance of infectious disease: Lessons learned from COVID-19

Much of what is known and theorized concerning passive sampling techniques has been developed considering chemical analytes. Yet, historically, biological analytes, such as Salmonella typhi, have been collected from wastewater via passive sampling with Moore swabs. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, passive sampling is re-emerging as a promising technique to monitor SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater. Method comparisons and disease surveillance using composite, grab, and passive sampling for SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection have found passive sampling with a variety of materials routinely produced qualitative results superior to grab samples and useful for sub-sewershed surveillance of COVID-19. Among individual studies, SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations derived from passive samplers demonstrated heterogeneous correlation with concentrations from paired composite samples ranging from weak (R² = 0.27, 0.31) to moderate (R² = 0.59) to strong (R² = 0.76). Among passive sampler materials, electronegative membranes have shown great promise with linear uptake of SARS-CoV-2 RNA observed for exposure durations of 24 to 48 h and in several cases RNA positivity on par with composite samples. Continuing development of passive sampling methods for the surveillance of infectious diseases via diverse forms of fecal waste should focus on optimizing sampler materials for the efficient uptake and recovery of biological analytes, kit-free extraction, and resource-efficient testing methods capable of rapidly producing qualitative or quantitative data. With such refinements passive sampling could prove to be a fundamental tool for scaling wastewater surveillance of infectious disease, especially among the 1.8 billion persons living in low-resource settings served by non-traditional wastewater collection infrastructure.

Lead time of early warning by wastewater surveillance for COVID-19: Geographical variations and impacting factors

The global data on the temporal tracking of the COVID-19 through wastewater surveillance needs to be comparatively evaluated to generate a proper and precise understanding of the robustness, advantages, and sensitivity of the wastewater-based epidemiological (WBE) approach. We reviewed the current state of knowledge based on several scientific articles pertaining to temporal variations in COVID-19 cases captured via viral RNA predictions in wastewater. This paper primarily focuses on analyzing the WBE-based temporal variation reported globally to check if the reported early warning lead-time generated through environmental surveillance is pragmatic or latent. We have compiled the geographical variations reported as lead time in various WBE reports to strike a precise correlation between COVID-19 cases and genome copies detected through wastewater surveillance, with respect to the sampling dates, separately for WASH and non-WASH countries. We highlighted sampling methods, climatic and weather conditions that significantly affected the concentration of viral SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in wastewater, and thus the lead time reported from the various climatic zones with diverse WASH situations were different. Our major findings are: i) WBE reports around the world are not comparable, especially in terms of gene copies detected, lag-time gained between monitored RNA peak and outbreak/peak of reported case, as well as per capita RNA concentrations; ii) Varying sanitation facility and climatic conditions that impact virus degradation rate are two major interfering features limiting the comparability of WBE results, and iii) WBE is better applicable to WASH countries having well-connected sewerage system.

SARS-CoV-2 shedding sources in wastewater and implications for wastewater-based epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) approach for COVID-19 surveillance is largely based on the assumption of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding into sewers by infected individuals. Recent studies found that SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater (C_RNA) could not be accounted by the fecal shedding alone. This study aimed to determine potential major shedding sources based on literature data of C_RNA, along with the COVID-19 prevalence in the catchment area through a systematic literature review. Theoretical C_RNA under a certain prevalence was estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, with eight scenarios accommodating feces alone, and both feces and sputum as shedding sources. With feces alone, none of the WBE data was in the confidence interval of theoretical C_RNA estimated with the mean feces shedding magnitude and probability, and 63% of C_RNA in WBE reports were higher than the maximum theoretical concentration. With both sputum and feces, 91% of the WBE data were below the simulated maximum C_RNA in wastewater. The inclusion of sputum as a major shedding source led to more comparable theoretical C_RNA to the literature WBE data. Sputum discharging behavior of patients also resulted in great fluctuations of C_RNA under a certain prevalence. Thus, sputum is a potential critical shedding source for COVID-19 WBE surveillance.

Monitoring COVID-19 spread in Prague local neighborhoods based on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater collected throughout the sewer network

Many reports have documented that the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the influents of municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) correlates with the actual epidemic situation in a given city. However, few data have been reported thus far on measurements upstream of WWTPs, i.e. throughout the sewer network. In this study, the monitoring of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Prague wastewater was carried out at selected locations of the Prague sewer network from August 2020 through May 2021. Various locations such as residential areas of various sizes, hospitals, city center areas, student dormitories, transportation hubs (airport, bus terminal), and commercial areas were monitored together with four of the main Prague sewers. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was determined by reverse transcription - multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-mqPCR) after the precipitation of nucleic acids with PEG 8,000 and RNA isolation with TRIzol™ Reagent. The number of copies of the gene encoding SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N1) per liter of wastewater was compared with the number of officially registered COVID-19 cases in Prague. Although the data obtained by sampling wastewater from the major Prague sewers were more consistent than those obtained from the small sewers, the correlation between wastewater-based and clinical-testing data was also good for the residential areas with more than 7,000 registered inhabitants. It was shown that monitoring SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater sampled from small sewers could identify isolated occurrences of COVID-19-positive cases in local neighborhoods. This can be very valuable while tracking COVID-19 hotspots within large cities.

Monitoring COVID-19 spread in Prague local neighborhoods based on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater collected throughout the sewer network

Many reports have documented that the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the influents of municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) correlates with the actual epidemic situation in a given city. However, few data have been reported thus far on measurements upstream of WWTPs, i.e. throughout the sewer network. In this study, the monitoring of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Prague wastewater was carried out at selected locations of the Prague sewer network from August 2020 through May 2021. Various locations such as residential areas of various sizes, hospitals, city center areas, student dormitories, transportation hubs (airport, bus terminal), and commercial areas were monitored together with four of the main Prague sewers. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was determined by reverse transcription - multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-mqPCR) after the precipitation of nucleic acids with PEG 8,000 and RNA isolation with TRIzol™ Reagent. The number of copies of the gene encoding SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N1) per liter of wastewater was compared with the number of officially registered COVID-19 cases in Prague. Although the data obtained by sampling wastewater from the major Prague sewers were more consistent than those obtained from the small sewers, the correlation between wastewater-based and clinical-testing data was also good for the residential areas with more than 7,000 registered inhabitants. It was shown that monitoring SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater sampled from small sewers could identify isolated occurrences of COVID-19-positive cases in local neighborhoods. This can be very valuable while tracking COVID-19 hotspots within large cities.

Detection and quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater influent in relation to reported COVID-19 incidence in Finland

Wastewater-based surveillance is a cost-effective concept for monitoring COVID-19 pandemics at a population level. Here, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was monitored from a total of 693 wastewater (WW) influent samples from 28 wastewater treatment plants (WWTP, N = 21-42 samples per WWTP) in Finland from August 2020 to May 2021, covering WW of ca. 3.3 million inhabitants (∼ 60% of the Finnish population). Quantity of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in 24 h-composite samples was determined by using the ultrafiltration method followed by nucleic acid extraction and CDC N2 RT-qPCR assay. SARS-CoV-2 RNA signals at each WWTP were compared over time to the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases (14-day case incidence rate) in the sewer network area. Over the 10-month surveillance period with an extensive total number of samples, the detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in WW was 79% (including 6% uncertain results, i.e., amplified only in one out of four, two original and two ten-fold diluted replicates), while only 24% of all samples exhibited gene copy numbers above the quantification limit. The range of the SARS-CoV-2 detection rate in WW varied from 33% (including 10% uncertain results) in Pietarsaari to 100% in Espoo. Only six out of 693 WW samples were positive with SARS-COV-2 RNA when the reported COVID-19 case number from the preceding 14 days was zero. Overall, the 14-day COVID-19 incidence was 7.0, 18, and 36 cases per 100 000 persons within the sewer network area when the probability to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater samples was 50%, 75% and 95%, respectively. The quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA required significantly more COVID-19 cases: the quantification rate was 50%, 75%, and 95% when the 14-day incidence was 110, 152, and 223 COVID-19 cases, respectively, per 100 000 persons. Multiple linear regression confirmed the relationship between the COVID-19 incidence and the SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantified in WW at 15 out of 28 WWTPs (overall R² = 0.36, p < 0.001). At four of the 13 WWTPs where a significant relationship was not found, the SARS-CoV-2 RNA remained below the quantification limit during the whole study period. In the five other WWTPs, the sewer coverage was less than 80% of the total population in the area and thus the COVID-19 cases may have been inhabitants from the areas not covered. Based on the results obtained, WW-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 could be used as an indicator for local and national COVID-19 incidence trends. Importantly, the determination of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments from WW is a powerful and non-invasive public health surveillance measure, independent of possible changes in the clinical testing strategies or in the willingness of individuals to be tested for COVID-19.

Detection of the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of SARS-CoV-2 in aircraft wastewater

On the 26th of November 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated the newly detected B.1.1.529 lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) the Omicron Variant of Concern (VOC). The genome of the Omicron VOC contains more than 50 mutations, many of which have been associated with increased transmissibility, differing disease severity, and potential to evade immune responses developed for previous VOCs such as Alpha and Delta. In the days since the designation of B.1.1.529 as a VOC, infections with the lineage have been reported in countries around the globe and many countries have implemented travel restrictions and increased border controls in response. We putatively detected the Omicron variant in an aircraft wastewater sample from a flight arriving to Darwin, Australia from Johannesburg, South Africa on the 25th of November 2021 via positive results on the CDC N1, CDC N2, and del(69-70) RT-qPCR assays per guidance from the WHO. The Australian Northern Territory Health Department detected one passenger onboard the flight who was infected with SARS-CoV-2, which was determined to be the Omicron VOC by sequencing of a nasopharyngeal swab sample. Subsequent sequencing of the aircraft wastewater sample using the ARTIC V3 protocol with Nanopore and ATOPlex confirmed the presence of the Omicron variant with a consensus genome that clustered with the B.1.1.529 BA.1 sub-lineage. Our detection and confirmation of a single onboard Omicron infection via aircraft wastewater further bolsters the important role that aircraft wastewater can play as an independent and unintrusive surveillance point for infectious diseases, particularly coronavirus disease 2019.

SHEDDING LIGHT ON THE TOXICITY OF SARS-CoV-2-DERIVED PEPTIDE IN NON-TARGET COVID-19 ORGANISMS: A STUDY INVOLVING INBRED AND OUTBRED MICE

Despite advances in research on the vaccine and therapeutic strategies of COVID-19, little attention has been paid to the possible (eco)toxicological impacts of the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 particles in natural environments. Thus, in this study, we aimed to evaluate the behavioral and biochemical consequences of the short exposure of outbred and inbred mice (male Swiss and C57Bl/6 J mice, respectively) to PSPD-2002 (peptide fragments of the Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2) synthesized in the laboratory. Our data demonstrated that after 24 h of intraperitoneal administration of PSPD-2002 (at 580 μg/kg) the animals did not present alterations in their locomotor, anxiolytic-like, or anxiety-like behavior (in the open field test), nor antidepressant-like or depressive behavior in the forced swimming test. However, the C57Bl/6 J mice exposed to PSPD-2002 showed memory deficit in the novel object recognition task, which was associated with higher production of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, as well as the increased suppression of acetylcholinesterase brain activity, compared to Swiss mice also exposed to peptide fragments. In Swiss mice the reduction in the activity of superoxide dismutase and catalase in the brain was not associated with increased oxidative stress biomarkers (hydrogen peroxide), suggesting that other antioxidant mechanisms may have been activated by exposure to PSPD-2002 to maintain the animals' brain redox homeostasis. Finally, the results of all biomarkers evaluated were applied into the "Integrated Biomarker Response Index" (IBRv2) and the principal component analysis (PCA), and greater sensitivity of C57Bl/6 J mice to PSPD-2002 was revealed. Therefore, our study provides pioneering evidence of mammalian exposure-induced toxicity (non-target SARS-CoV-2 infection) to PSPD-2002, as well as “sheds light” on the influence of genetic profile on susceptibility/resistance to the effects of viral peptide fragments.

Improving correlation of wastewater SARS-CoV-2 gene copy numbers with COVID-19 public health cases using readily available biomarkers

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the potential role that wastewater-based epidemiology can play in assessing aggregate community health. However, efforts to translate SARS-CoV-2 gene copy numbers obtained from wastewater samples into meaningful community health indicators are nascent. In this study, SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) genes (N1 and N2) were quantified weekly using reverse transcriptase droplet digital PCR from two municipal wastewater treatment plants for seven months. Four biomarkers (ammonium, biological oxygen demand (BOD), creatinine, and human mitochondrial gene NADH dehydrogenase subunit 5) were quantified and used to normalize SARS-CoV-2 gene copy numbers. These were correlated to daily new case data and one-, two-, and three-week cumulative case data. Over the course of the study, the strongest correlations were observed with a one-day case data lag. However, early measurements were strongly correlated with a five-day case data lag. This indicates that in the early stages of the pandemic, the wastewater samples may have indicated active COVID-19 cases before clinical indications. Mitochondrial and creatinine normalization methods showed the strongest correlations throughout the study, indicating that human-specific biomarkers were better at normalizing wastewater data than ammonium or BOD. Granger causality tests supported this observation and showed that gene copies in wastewater could be predictive of new cases in a sewershed.

Efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance for detection of COVID-19 at a residential private college

Many colleges and universities utilized wastewater surveillance testing for SARS-CoV-2 RNA as a tool to help monitor and mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic on campuses across the United States during the 2020-2021 academic year. We sought to assess the efficacy of one such program by analyzing data on relative wastewater RNA levels from residential buildings in relation to SARS-CoV-2 cases identified through individual surveillance testing, conducted largely independent of wastewater results. Almost 80% of the cases on campus were associated with positive wastewater tests, resulting in an overall positive predictive value of 79% (Chi square 48.1, Df = 1, p &lt; 0.001). However, half of the positive wastewater samples occurred in the two weeks following the return of a student to the residence hall following the 10-day isolation period, and therefore were not useful in predicting new infections. When these samples were excluded, the positive predictive value of a positive wastewater sample was 54%. Overall, we conclude that the continued shedding of viral RNA by patients past the time of potential transmission confounds the identification of new cases using wastewater surveillance, and decreases its effectiveness in managing SARS-CoV-2 infections on a residential college campus.

Sensitivity of wastewater-based epidemiology for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a low prevalence setting

To assist public health responses to COVID-19, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is being utilised internationally to monitor SARS-CoV-2 infections at the community level. However, questions remain regarding the sensitivity of WBE and its use in low prevalence settings. In this study, we estimated the total number of COVID-19 cases required for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater. To do this, we leveraged a unique situation where, over a 4-month period, all symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, in a population of approximately 120,000, were precisely known and mainly located in a single managed isolation and quarantine facility (MIQF) building. From 9 July to 6 November 2020, 24-hr composite wastewater samples (n = 113) were collected daily from the sewer outside the MIQF, and from the municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) located 5 km downstream. New daily COVID-19 cases at the MIQF ranged from 0 to 17, and for most of the study period there were no cases outside the MIQF identified. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 54.0% (61/113) at the WWTP, compared to 95.6% (108/113) at the MIQF. We used logistic regression to estimate the shedding of SARS-CoV-2 RNA into wastewater based on four infectious shedding models. With a total of 5 and 10 COVID-19 infectious cases per 100,000 population (0.005% and 0.01% prevalence) the predicated probability of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection at the WWTP was estimated to be 28 and 41%, respectively. When a proportional shedding model was used, this increased to 58% and 87% for 5 and 10 cases, respectively. In other words, when 10 individuals were actively shedding SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a catchment of 100,000 individuals, there was a high likelihood of detecting viral RNA in wastewater. SARS-CoV-2 RNA detections at the WWTP were associated with increasing COVID-19 cases. Our results show that WBE provides a reliable and sensitive platform for detecting infections at the community scale, even when case prevalence is low, and can be of use as an early warning system for community outbreaks.

Inferring SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding into wastewater relative to the time of infection

Since the start of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been interest in using wastewater monitoring as an approach for disease surveillance. A significant uncertainty that would improve the interpretation of wastewater monitoring data is the intensity and timing with which individuals shed RNA from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into wastewater. By combining wastewater and case surveillance data sets from a university campus during a period of heightened surveillance, we inferred that individual shedding of RNA into wastewater peaks on average 6 days (50% uncertainty interval (UI): 6-7; 95% UI: 4-8) following infection, and that wastewater measurements are highly overdispersed [negative binomial dispersion parameter, k = 0.39 (95% credible interval: 0.32-0.48)]. This limits the utility of wastewater surveillance as a leading indicator of secular trends in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during an epidemic, and implies that it could be most useful as an early warning of rising transmission in areas where transmission is low or clinical testing is delayed or of limited capacity.

Inferring SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding into wastewater relative to the time of infection

Since the start of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been interest in using wastewater monitoring as an approach for disease surveillance. A significant uncertainty that would improve the interpretation of wastewater monitoring data is the intensity and timing with which individuals shed RNA from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into wastewater. By combining wastewater and case surveillance data sets from a university campus during a period of heightened surveillance, we inferred that individual shedding of RNA into wastewater peaks on average 6 days (50% uncertainty interval (UI): 6-7; 95% UI: 4-8) following infection, and that wastewater measurements are highly overdispersed [negative binomial dispersion parameter, k = 0.39 (95% credible interval: 0.32-0.48)]. This limits the utility of wastewater surveillance as a leading indicator of secular trends in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during an epidemic, and implies that it could be most useful as an early warning of rising transmission in areas where transmission is low or clinical testing is delayed or of limited capacity.