Temporal trends in diarrhea-related hospitalizations and deaths in children under age 5 before and after the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine in four Latin American countries

Deployment of Rotavirus Vaccine in Western Kenya Coincides with a Reduction in All-Cause Child Mortality: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Rotavirus is an important cause of fatal pediatric diarrhea worldwide. Many national immunization programs began adding rotavirus vaccine following a 2009 World Health Organization recommendation. Kenya added rotavirus vaccine to their immunization program at the end of 2014. From a cohort of 38,463 children in the Kisumu health and demographic surveillance site in western Kenya, we assessed how the implementation of the rotavirus vaccine affected mortality in children under 3 years of age. Following its introduction in late 2014, the span of rotavirus vaccine coverage for children increased to 75% by 2017. Receiving the rotavirus vaccine was associated with a 44% reduction in all-cause child mortality (95% confidence interval = 28-68%, p < 0.0001), but not diarrhea-specific mortality (p = 0.401). All-cause child mortality declined 2% per month following the implementation of the rotavirus vaccine (p = 0.002) among both vaccinated and unvaccinated children, but diarrhea-specific mortality was not associated with the implementation of the rotavirus vaccine independent of individual vaccine status (p = 0.125). The incidence of acute diarrhea decreased over the study period, and the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine was not associated with population-wide trends (p = 0.452). The receipt of the rotavirus vaccine was associated with a 34% reduction in the incidence of diarrhea (95% confidence interval = 24-43% reduction). These results suggest that rotavirus vaccine may have had an impact on all-cause child mortality. The analyses of diarrhea-specific mortality were limited by relatively few deaths (n = 57), as others have found a strong reduction in diarrhea-specific mortality. Selection bias may have played a part in these results-children receiving rotavirus vaccine were more likely to be fully immunized than children not receiving the rotavirus vaccine.

Rotavirus Vaccine Impact since Its Introduction in the National Immunization Program of Argentina

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus (RV) is the most common cause of childhood diarrhea. Argentina introduced RV vaccination in the National Immunization Program in January 2015. This study evaluates the impact of RV vaccine implementation on the burden of acute diarrheal disease (ADD) and RV positive cases, and hospitalizations among children in Argentina.

METHODS

A counterfactual time-series analysis was performed. Data on ADD (2013-2018) and RV diarrhea (2012-2018) cases in children aged < 5 years were collected from the National Healthcare Surveillance System (clinical and laboratory data). Data on hospital discharges following ADD and RV diarrhea (2011-2017) were retrieved from the Health Statistics and Information Office. All data were classified by the age groups < 1 year, < 2 years, 2-5 years. Vaccine impact was defined as the difference between the predicted time trend (simulated using 2012-2014 data) and the actual post-vaccination data (2015-2018).

RESULTS

A significant reduction of 22.1% of notified ADD cases and 15.4% of hospital discharges following ADD among children < 2 years was observed in the 3 years after RV vaccine implementation. Data also showed a significant decline of 54.0% and 59.4% of notified RV cases in children < 2 and < 1 years, respectively, and a reduction of 39.3% and 40.8% in RV hospital discharges for the same age groups.

CONCLUSION

This study shows a significant reduction in notified ADD cases and RV cases and hospital discharges following ADD and RV cases in children < 2 years after RV vaccine introduction in Argentina in 2015.

Space-Time Clustering and Socioeconomic Factors Associated with Mortality from Diarrhea in Alagoas, Northeastern Brazil: A 20-Year Population-Based Study

Acute diarrhea is the second leading cause of death among children in developing countries and is strongly related with the socioeconomic conditions of the population. In Brazil, data show a drop in the diarrhea mortality rate. Nevertheless, the northeastern region still has the most deaths. Considering this, we analyze high-risk areas for diarrhea- and gastroenteritis-related deaths, and their association with social determinants of health (SDH) in the state with one of the worst human development indicators in Brazil (Alagoas) between 2000 and 2019. We applied temporal, spatial, and space−time risk modelling. We used a log-linear regression model to assess temporal trends and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indices for spatial analysis. Spearman’s correlation was used to correlate mortality rates with SDH. A total of 3472 diarrhea-related deaths were reported during this period in Alagoas. We observed a decreasing time trend of deaths in the state (9.41/100,000 in 2000 to 2.21 in 2019; APC = −6.7; p-value < 0.001), especially in children under one year of age. However, there was stability among adults and the elderly. We identified two high-risk spatiotemporal clusters of mortality in inland municipalities. Lastly, mortality rates correlated significantly with 90% of SDH. Taken together, these findings indicate that diarrhea diseases remain a serious public health concern in Alagoas, mainly in the poorest and inland municipalities. Thereby, it is urgently necessary to invest in measures to control and prevent cases, and improve the living conditions of the poorest populations and those with the highest social vulnerability index.

Association of Anti-Rotavirus IgA Seroconversion with Growth, Environmental Enteric Dysfunction and Enteropathogens in Rural Pakistani Infants

BACKGROUND

The underperformance of oral vaccines in children of low- and middle-income countries is partly attributable to underlying environmental enteric dysfunction (EED).

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a longitudinal, community-based study to evaluate the association of oral rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix®) seroconversion with growth anthropometrics, EED biomarkers and intestinal enteropathogens in Pakistani infants. Children were enrolled between three to six months of their age based on their nutritional status. We measured serum anti-rotavirus immunoglobulin A (IgA) at enrollment and nine months of age with EED biomarkers and intestinal enteropathogens.

RESULTS

A total of 391 infants received two doses of rotavirus (RV) vaccine. 331/391 provided paired blood samples. Of these 331 children, 45% seroconverted at 9 months of age, 35% did not seroconvert and 20% were seropositive at baseline. Non-seroconverted children were more likely to be stunted, wasted and underweight at enrollment. In univariate analysis, insulin-like growth factor (IGF) concentration at 6 months were higher in seroconverters, median (25th, 75th percentile): 26.3 (16.5, 43.5) ng/ml vs. 22.5 (13.6, 36.3) ng/ml for non-seroconverters, p-value = 0.024. At nine months, fecal myeloperoxidase (MPO) concentrations were significantly lower in seroconverters, 3050(1250, 7587) ng/ml vs. 4623.3 (2189, 11650) ng/ml in non-seroconverted children, p-value = 0.017. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, alpha-1 acid glycoprotein (AGP) and IGF-1 concentrations were positively associated with seroconversion at six months. The presence of sapovirus and rotavirus in fecal samples at the time of rotavirus administration, was associated with non-seroconversion and seroconversion, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We detected high baseline RV seropositivity and impaired RV vaccine immunogenicity in this high-risk group of children. Healthy growth, serum IGF-1 and AGP, and fecal shedding of rotavirus were positively associated with RV IgA seroconversion following immunization, whereas the presence of sapovirus was more common in non-seroconverters.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trials ID: NCT03588013.

Gut Microbiota in Mexican Children With Acute Diarrhea: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Acute diarrhea is the second leading cause of preventable mortality and morbidity in children worldwide. This study aimed to identify the main pathogens associated with acute diarrhea and to describe changes in gut microbiota in Mexican children.

METHODS

This single-center observational study included 30 children (6 months to 5 years old) with acute diarrhea who were referred to the Instituto Nacional de Pediatría of Mexico City and 15 healthy volunteers (control group). Stool samples at day 0 (D0) and day 15 (D15) were collected for identification of microorganisms (reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction analyses with xTAG gastrointestinal pathogen panel multiplex assay) and microbiota analysis (16S gene amplification sequencing). Prescription decisions were made by the treating clinician.

RESULTS

The main pathogens identified were norovirus and Campylobacter jejuni (20% each). The majority of patients (n = 24) were prescribed Saccharomyces boulardii CNCM I-745 for treatment of acute diarrhea. Diarrheic episodes resolved within 1 week of treatment. Compared with D15 and control samples, D0 samples showed significantly lower alpha diversity and a clear shift in overall composition (beta diversity). Alpha diversity was significantly increased in S. boulardii-treated group between D0 and D15 to a level similar to that of control group.

CONCLUSIONS

In these children, acute diarrhea was accompanied by significant alterations in gut microbiota. S. boulardii CNCM I-745 treatment may facilitate gut microbiota restoration in children with acute diarrhea, mostly through improvements in alpha diversity.

Rotavirus vaccine efficacy up to 2 years of age and against diverse circulating rotavirus strains in Niger: Extended follow-up of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus vaccination is recommended in all countries to reduce the burden of diarrhea-related morbidity and mortality in children. In resource-limited settings, rotavirus vaccination in the national immunization program has important cost implications, and evidence for protection beyond the first year of life and against the evolving variety of rotavirus strains is important. We assessed the extended and strain-specific vaccine efficacy of a heat-stable, affordable oral rotavirus vaccine (Rotasiil, Serum Institute of India, Pune, India) against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (SRVGE) among healthy infants in Niger.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

From August 2014 to November 2015, infants were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive 3 doses of Rotasiil or placebo at approximately 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. Episodes of gastroenteritis were assessed through active and passive surveillance and graded using the Vesikari score. The primary endpoint was vaccine efficacy of 3 doses of vaccine versus placebo against a first episode of laboratory-confirmed SRVGE (Vesikari score ≥ 11) from 28 days after dose 3, as previously reported. At the time of the primary analysis, median age was 9.8 months. In the present paper, analyses of extended efficacy were undertaken for 3 periods (28 days after dose 3 to 1 year of age, 1 to 2 years of age, and the combined period 28 days after dose 3 to 2 years of age) and by individual rotavirus G type. Among the 3,508 infants included in the per-protocol efficacy analysis (mean age at first dose 6.5 weeks; 49% male), the vaccine provided significant protection against SRVGE through the first year of life (3.96 and 9.98 cases per 100 person-years for vaccine and placebo, respectively; vaccine efficacy 60.3%, 95% CI 43.6% to 72.1%) and over the entire efficacy follow-up period up to 2 years of age (2.13 and 4.69 cases per 100 person-years for vaccine and placebo, respectively; vaccine efficacy 54.7%, 95% CI 38.1% to 66.8%), but the difference was not statistically significant in the second year of life. Up to 2 years of age, rotavirus vaccination prevented 2.56 episodes of SRVGE per 100 child-years. Estimates of efficacy against SRVGE by individual rotavirus genotype were consistent with the overall protective efficacy. Study limitations include limited generalizability to settings with administration of oral polio virus due to low concomitant administration, limited power to assess vaccine efficacy in the second year of life owing to a low number of events among older children, potential bias due to censoring of placebo children at the time of study vaccine receipt, and suboptimal adapted severity scoring based on the Vesikari score, which was designed for use in settings with high parental literacy.

CONCLUSIONS

Rotasiil provided protection against SRVGE in infants through an extended follow-up period of approximately 2 years. Protection was significant in the first year of life, when the disease burden and risk of death are highest, and against a changing pattern of rotavirus strains during the 2-year efficacy period. Rotavirus vaccines that are safe, effective, and protective against multiple strains represent the best hope for preventing the severe consequences of rotavirus infection, especially in resource-limited settings, where access to care may be limited. Studies such as this provide valuable information for the planning of national immunization programs and future vaccine development.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02145000.

The inactivation of bacteriophage MS2 by sodium hypochlorite in the presence of particles

The inactivation of bacteriophage MS2 by sodium hypochlorite was investigated to understand the effect of solution chemistry on the disinfection efficacy in the presence of particles. Kaolinite and Microcystis aeruginosa (M. aeruginosa) were used as the models of inorganic and organic particles to simulate high turbidity and algal cells, respectively, in drinking water sources. In both particle-containing solutions, lower pH, the presence of cations (di-valent Ca²⁺) and natural organic matters (NOM) were regarded as the main factors to influence the aggregation and inactivation of MS2. The results showed that MS2 aggregated in all solutions at pH 3.0, protecting the inner viruses. At pH 7.0, the presence of Na⁺ cations (0-200 mmol/L) did not affect the inactivation efficacy of MS2, which always followed the order of particles-free ≈ kaolinite > M. aeruginosa. The inactivation efficacy of MS2 in the presence of Ca²⁺ cations followed the order of kaolinite > particles-free > M. aeruginosa at 0-50 mmol/L Ca²⁺ cations, while the inactivation efficacy remained almost constant in the range of 100-200 mmol/L Ca²⁺ cations. By contrast, kaolinite offered not enough protection to adsorbed MS2, but MS2 aggregation decreased disinfection efficacy at a high concentration of Ca²⁺ cations. Moreover, the presence of humic acid as NOM decreased the inactivation of MS2 more significantly than M. aeruginosa due to the more consumption of free chlorine from humic acids. Therefore, the co-existence of NOM and di-valent Ca²⁺ cations are potential challenges for the inactivation of viruses by sodium hypochlorite in safe drinking water.

Overview of the Development, Impacts, and Challenges of Live-Attenuated Oral Rotavirus Vaccines

Safety, efficacy, and cost-effectiveness are paramount to vaccine development. Following the isolation of rotavirus particles in 1969 and its evidence as an aetiology of severe dehydrating diarrhoea in infants and young children worldwide, the quest to find not only an acceptable and reliable but cost-effective vaccine has continued until now. Four live-attenuated oral rotavirus vaccines (LAORoVs) (Rotarix^®, RotaTeq^®, Rotavac^®, and RotaSIIL^®) have been developed and licensed to be used against all forms of rotavirus-associated infection. The efficacy of these vaccines is more obvious in the high-income countries (HIC) compared with the low- to middle-income countries (LMICs); however, the impact is far exceeding in the low-income countries (LICs). Despite the rotavirus vaccine efficacy and effectiveness, more than 90 countries (mostly Asia, America, and Europe) are yet to implement any of these vaccines. Implementation of these vaccines has continued to suffer a setback in these countries due to the vaccine cost, policy, discharging of strategic preventive measures, and infrastructures. This review reappraises the impacts and effectiveness of the current live-attenuated oral rotavirus vaccines from many representative countries of the globe. It examines the problems associated with the low efficacy of these vaccines and the way forward. Lastly, forefront efforts put forward to develop initial procedures for oral rotavirus vaccines were examined and re-connected to today vaccines.

Impact assessment of the incorporation of the rotavirus vaccine in the province of San Luis - Argentina

Rotavirus (RV) is the main cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in young children. The San Luis province of Argentina introduced RV vaccination in May 2013. We estimate vaccine impact (RVI) using real-world data. Data on all-cause AGE cases and AGE-related hospitalisations for San Luis and the adjacent Mendoza province (control group) were obtained and analysed by interrupted time-series methods. Regardless of the model used for counterfactual predictions, we estimated a reduction in the number of all-cause AGE cases of 20-25% and a reduction in AGE-related hospitalisations of 55-60%. The vaccine impact was similar for each age group considered (<1 year, <2 years and <5 years). RV vaccination was estimated to have reduced direct medical costs in the province by about 4.5 million pesos from May 2013 to December 2014. Similar to previous studies, we found a higher impact of RV vaccination in preventing severe all-cause AGE cases requiring hospitalisation than in preventing all-cases AGE cases presenting for medical care. An assessment of the economic value of RV vaccination could take other benefits into account in addition to the avoided medical costs and the costs of vaccination.

Global impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on rotavirus hospitalisations among children under 5 years of age, 2008-16: findings from the Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus vaccine use in national immunisation programmes has led to declines in hospital admissions for rotavirus gastroenteritis among children; however, the global impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction has not been described using primary data. We describe the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on admissions for acute rotavirus gastroenteritis in primarily low-income and middle-income countries, using 9 years of data from the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (GRSN).

METHODS

Between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016, children younger than 5 years of age who were admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis were prospectively enrolled in GRSN sites. We included sites that enrolled children and collected stool specimens monthly and tested at least 100 specimens annually in the impact analysis, with a separate analysis taking into account site continuity. We compared proportions of acute gastroenteritis cases positive for rotavirus in the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine periods and calculated mean proportion changes for WHO regions, with 95% CIs; these findings were then compared with interrupted time series analyses. We did further sensitivity analyses to account for rotavirus vaccination coverage levels and sites that collected specimens for at least 11 months per year and tested at least 80 specimens per year. We also analysed the age distribution of rotavirus-positive cases before and after vaccine introduction.

FINDINGS

403 140 children younger than 5 years of age admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis from 349 sites in 82 countries were enrolled over the study period, of whom 132 736 (32·9%) were positive for rotavirus. We included 305 789 children from 198 sites in 69 countries in the impact analysis. In countries that had not introduced rotavirus vaccine in their national immunisation programmes, rotavirus was detected in 38·0% (95% CI 4·8-73·4) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis annually whereas in those that have introduced the vaccine, rotavirus was detected in 23·0% (0·7-57·7) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis, showing a 39·6% (35·4-43·8) relative decline following introduction. Interrupted time series analyses confirmed these findings. Reductions by WHO regions ranged from 26·4% (15·0-37·8) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region to 55·2% (43·0-67·4) in the European Region and were sustained in nine countries (contributing up to 31 sites) for 6-10 years. The age distribution of children with rotavirus gastroenteritis shifted towards older children after rotavirus vaccine introduction.

INTERPRETATION

A significant and sustained reduction in the proportion of hospital admissions for acute gastroenteritis due to rotavirus was seen among children younger than 5 years in GRSN sites following rotavirus vaccine introduction. These findings highlight the need to incorporate rotavirus vaccines into immunisation programmes in countries that have not yet introduced them and underline the importance of high-quality surveillance.

FUNDING

The GRSN receives funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. No specific funding was provided for this Article.

Experiences with rotavirus vaccines: can we improve rotavirus vaccine impact in developing countries?

Rotavirus vaccines have been introduced into over 95 countries globally and demonstrate substantial impact in reducing diarrheal mortality and diarrheal hospitalizations in young children. The vaccines are also considered by WHO as "very cost effective" interventions for young children, particularly in countries with high diarrheal disease burden. Yet the full potential impact of rotavirus immunization is yet to be realized. Large countries with big birth cohorts and where disease burden is high in Africa and Asia have not yet implemented rotavirus vaccines at all or at scale. Significant advances have been made demonstrating the impact of the vaccines in low- and lower-middle income countries, yet the modest effectiveness of the vaccines in these settings is challenging. Current research highlights these challenges and considers alternative strategies to overcome them, including alternative immunization schedules and host factors that may inform us of new opportunities.

Vaccination herd effect experience in Latin America: a systematic literature review

Background: National pediatric vaccination programs have been introduced in Latin America (LatAm) to reduce the burden of diseases due to pathogens such as rotavirus, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and pneumococcus. Vaccination health benefits may extend to unvaccinated populations by reducing pathogen transmission. Understanding herd effect is important for implementation and assessment of vaccination programs. The objective was to conduct a systematic review of published epidemiological evidence of herd effect with Hib, rotavirus and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in LatAm.

Methods: Searches were conducted in PubMed, Virtual Health Library (VHL), SciELO and SCOPUS databases, for studies reporting data on herd effect from Hib, rotavirus and PCV vaccination in LatAm, without age restriction. Searches were limited to articles published in English, Spanish or Portuguese (1990–2016). After screening and full-text review, articles meeting the selection criteria were included to be critically appraised following criteria for observational and interventional studies. The presence of a herd effect was defined as a significant decrease in incidence of disease, hospitalization, or mortality.

Results: 3,465 unique articles were identified, and 23 were included (Hib vaccine n = 5, PCV n = 8, rotavirus vaccine n = 10). Most studies included children and/or adolescents (age range varied between studies). Studies in adults, including older adults (aged > 65 years), were limited. Few studies reported statistically significant reductions in disease incidence in age groups not targeted for vaccination. Hib-confirmed meningitis hospitalization decreased in children but herd effect could not be quantified. Some evidence of herd effect was identified for PCV and rotavirus vaccine in unvaccinated children. Evidence for herd effects due to PCV in adults was limited.

Conclusion: After introduction of Hib, PCV and rotavirus vaccination in LatAm, reductions in morbidity/mortality have been reported in children not targeted for vaccination. However, due to methodological limitations (e.g. short post-vaccination periods and age range studied), there is currently insufficient evidence to quantify the herd effect in adult populations. More research and higher quality surveillance is needed to characterize herd effect of these vaccines in LatAm.

Characterisation of a rare, reassortant human G10P[14] rotavirus strain detected in Honduras

BACKGROUND

Although first detected in animals, the rare rotavirus strain G10P[14] has been sporadically detected in humans in Slovenia, Thailand, United Kingdom and Australia among other countries. Earlier studies suggest that the strains found in humans resulted from interspecies transmission and reassortment between human and bovine rotavirus strains.

OBJECTIVES

In this study, a G10P[14] rotavirus genotype detected in a human stool sample in Honduras during the 2010-2011 rotavirus season, from an unvaccinated 30-month old boy who reported at the hospital with severe diarrhea and vomiting, was characterised to determine the possible evolutionary origin of the rare strain.

METHODS

For the sample detected as G10P[14], 10% suspension was prepared and used for RNA extraction and sequence independent amplification. The amplicons were sequenced by next-generation sequencing using the Illumina MiSeq 150 paired end method. The sequence reads were analysed using CLC Genomics Workbench 6.0 and phylogenetic trees were constructed using PhyML version 3.0.

FINDINGS

The next generation sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of the 11-segmented genome of the G10P[14] strain allowed classification as G10-P[14]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A3-N2-T6-E2-H3. Six of the genes (VP1, VP2, VP3, VP6, NSP2 and NSP4) were DS-1-like. NSP1 and NSP5 were AU-1-like and NSP3 was T6, which suggests that multiple reassortment events occurred in the evolution of the strain. The phylogenetic analyses and genetic distance calculations showed that the VP7, VP4, VP6, VP1, VP3, NSP1, NSP3 and NSP4 genes clustered predominantly with bovine strains. NSP2 and VP2 genes were most closely related to simian and human strains, respectively, and NSP5 was most closely related to a rhesus strain.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The genetic characterisation of the G10P[14] strain from Honduras suggests that its genome resulted from multiple reassortment events which were possibly mediated through interspecies transmissions.

Human rotavirus strains circulating in Venezuela after vaccine introduction: predominance of G2P[4] and reemergence of G1P[8]

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus (RV) is the most common cause of severe childhood diarrhea worldwide. Despite Venezuela was among the first developing countries to introduce RV vaccines into their national immunization schedules, RV is still contributing to the burden of diarrhea. Concerns exist about the selective pressure that RV vaccines could exert on the predominant types and/or emergence of new strains.

RESULTS

To assess the impact of RV vaccines on the genotype distribution 1 year after the vaccination was implemented, a total of 912 fecal specimens, collected from children with acute gastroenteritis in Caracas from February 2007 to April 2008, were screened, of which 169 (18.5%) were confirmed to be RV positive by PAGE. Rotavirus-associated diarrhea occurred all year-round, although prevailed during the coolest and driest months among unvaccinated children under 24 months old. Of 165 RV strains genotyped for G (VP7) and P (VP4) by seminested multiplex RT-PCR, 77 (46.7%) were G2P[4] and 63 (38.2%) G1P[8]. G9P[8], G3P[8] and G2P[6] were found in a lower proportion (7.3%). Remarkable was also the detection of <5% of uncommon combinations (G8P[14], G8P[4], G1P[4] and G4P[4]) and 3.6% of mixed infections. A changing pattern of G/P-type distribution was observed during the season studied, with complete predominance of G2P[4] from February to June 2007 followed by its gradual decline and the reemergence of G1P[8], predominant since January 2008. Phylogenetic analysis of VP7 and VP4 genes revealed a high similarity among G2P[4] and global strains belonging to G2-II and P[4]-V lineages. The amino acid substitution 96D → N, related with reemergence of the G2 genotype elsewhere, was observed. The G1P[8] strains from Caracas were grouped into the lineages G1-I and P[8]-III, along with geographically remote G1P[8] rotaviruses, but they were rather distant from Rotarix® vaccine and pre-vaccine strains. Unique amino acid substitutions observed on neutralization domains of the VP7 sequence from Venezuelan post-vaccine G1P[8] could have conditioned their re-emergence and a more efficient dissemination into susceptible population.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that natural fluctuations of genotypes in combination with forces driving the genetic evolution could determine the spread of novel strains, whose long-term effect on the efficacy of available vaccines should be determined.

Sustained Effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccine Against Very Severe Rotavirus Disease Through the Second Year of Life, Bolivia 2013-2014

BACKGROUND

In Bolivia, monovalent rotavirus vaccine was introduced in 2008 and a previous evaluation reported a vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 77% with 2 doses of vaccine in children aged <3 years. This evaluation sought to determine if rotavirus vaccine provided protection through the second year of life against circulating genotypes.

METHODS

A case-control study was performed in 5 hospitals from April 2013 to March 2014. Among enrolled participants who met study criteria and had rotavirus stool testing performed and vaccine status confirmed, we calculated VE using a logistic regression model. Subgroup analyses were performed among children aged <1 year and those aged ≥1 year, among children with severe diarrhea (Vesikari score ≥11) and very severe diarrhea (Vesikari score ≥15), and among G and P strains with at least 40 specimens.

RESULTS

A total of 776 children were enrolled. For children <1 year and ≥1 year of age with severe diarrhea, VE for 2 doses was 75% (95% confidence interval [CI], 46%-88%) and 53% (95% CI, 9%-76%), respectively. For children <1 year and ≥1 year of age with very severe diarrhea, VE for 2 doses was 80% (95% CI, 44%-93%) and 74% (95% CI, 35%-90%), respectively. Genotype-specific analysis demonstrated similar VE for the 4 most common G and P types (G3, G9, P[6] and P[8]).

CONCLUSIONS

A monovalent rotavirus vaccine remains effective against a broad range of circulating strains as part of a routine immunization program >5 years after its introduction in Bolivia. Although VE appears to wane in children aged ≥1 year, it still provides significant protection, and does not wane against severe disease.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Methods and challenges for the health impact assessment of vaccination programs in Latin America

OBJECTIVE

To describe methods and challenges faced in the health impact assessment of vaccination programs, focusing on the pneumococcal conjugate and rotavirus vaccines in Latin America and the Caribbean.

METHODS

For this narrative review, we searched for the terms “rotavirus”, “pneumococcal”, “conjugate vaccine”, “vaccination”, “program”, and “impact” in the databases Medline and LILACS. The search was extended to the grey literature in Google Scholar. No limits were defined for publication year. Original articles on the health impact assessment of pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination programs in Latin America and the Caribbean in English, Spanish or Portuguese were included.

RESULTS

We identified 207 articles. After removing duplicates and assessing eligibility, we reviewed 33 studies, 25 focusing on rotavirus and eight on pneumococcal vaccination programs. The most frequent studies were ecological, with time series analysis or comparing pre- and post-vaccination periods. The main data sources were: health information systems; population-, sentinel- or laboratory-based surveillance systems; statistics reports; and medical records from one or few health care services. Few studies used primary data. Hospitalization and death were the main outcomes assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the last years, a significant number of health impact assessments of pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination programs have been conducted in Latin America and the Caribbean. These studies were carried out few years after the programs were implemented, meet the basic methodological requirements and suggest positive health impact. Future assessments should consider methodological issues and challenges arisen in these first studies conducted in the region.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of Norovirus and Rotavirus in Children After Rotavirus Vaccine Introduction, Cochabamba, Bolivia

The effectiveness of rotavirus vaccine in the field may set the stage for a changing landscape of diarrheal illness affecting children worldwide. Norovirus and rotavirus are the two major viral enteropathogens of childhood. This study describes the prevalence of norovirus and rotavirus 2 years after widespread rotavirus vaccination in Cochabamba, Bolivia. Stool samples from hospitalized children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and outpatients aged 5-24 months without AGE were recruited from an urban hospital serving Bolivia's third largest city. Both viruses were genotyped, and norovirus GII.4 was further sequenced. Norovirus was found much more frequently than rotavirus. Norovirus was detected in 69/201 (34.3%) of specimens from children with AGE and 13/71 (18.3%) of those without diarrhea. Rotavirus was detected in 38/201 (18.9%) of diarrheal specimens and 3/71 (4.2%) of non-diarrheal specimens. Norovirus GII was identified in 97.8% of norovirus-positive samples; GII.4 was the most common genotype (71.4% of typed specimens). Rotavirus G3P[8] was the most prevalent rotavirus genotype (44.0% of typed specimens) and G2P[4] was second most prevalent (16.0% of typed specimens). This community is likely part of a trend toward norovirus predominance over rotavirus in children after widespread vaccination against rotavirus.

Risk of Intussusception After Rotavirus Vaccination: Meta-analysis of Postlicensure Studies

BACKGROUND

Postlicensure surveillance studies suggest a small temporal increase in the risk for intussusception with both currently available rotavirus vaccines (RV1; Rotarix, GSK and RV5; RotaTeq, Merck & Co., Inc.). This meta-analysis was undertaken to provide a single overall estimate of the relative risk of intussusception during the 7-day period after administration of RV1 and RV5.

METHODS

Meta-analysis based on estimates of relative risk and corresponding 95% confidence intervals from 5 postlicensure studies providing an estimate of risk of intussusception during the 7-day period after administration of dose 1 and/or dose 2 of RV1 and/or RV5, based on active and/or passive surveillance, for confirmed intussusception cases (Brighton or other method of case confirmation). For each vaccine, the relative risk of intussusception was estimated postdose 1 and postdose 2. Results were pooled using the inverse variance method using both fixed-effect and random-effect models.

RESULTS

The overall estimate of relative risk of intussusception during the 7 days postdose 1 was 5.4 (95% confidence interval: 3.9-7.4, 3 studies) for RV1 and 5.5 (3.3-9.3, 3 studies) for RV5. The overall estimate of relative risk of intussusception during the 7 days postdose 2 was 1.8 (1.3-2.5, 4 studies) for RV1 and 1.7 (1.1-2.6, 3 studies) for RV5.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis showed a similar increased risk of intussusception, during the first 7 days after administration of dose 1 and, to a lesser extent, dose 2, for both currently available rotavirus vaccines. This suggests that intussusception may be a class effect of currently available oral rotavirus vaccines.

Impact of vaccination on the molecular epidemiology and evolution of group A rotaviruses in Latin America and factors affecting vaccine efficacy

Despite high rotavirus (RV) vaccine coverage (∼83%) and good effectiveness (∼77%) against RV-diarrhea hospitalization, RV is still contributing to the burden of diarrhea that persists in hospital settings in several Latin American countries, where RV vaccination is being implemented. Due to the extensive genomic and antigenic diversity, among co-circulating human RV, a major concern has been that the introduction of RV vaccination could exert selection pressure leading to higher prevalence of strains not included in the vaccines and/or emergence of new strains, thus, reducing the efficacy of vaccination. Here we review the molecular epidemiology of RV in Latin America and explore issues of RV evolution and selection in light of vaccination. We further explore etiologies behind the large burden of diarrhea remaining after vaccination in some countries and discuss plausible reasons for vaccine failures.

G1P[8] species A rotavirus over 27 years--pre- and post-vaccination eras--in Brazil: full genomic constellation analysis and no evidence for selection pressure by Rotarix® vaccine

Epidemiological data on species A rotavirus (RVA) infections have demonstrated the genetic diversity of strains circulating worldwide. Many G and P genotype combinations have been described over the years, varying regionally and temporally, especially in developing countries. However, the most common G and P genotype combinations identified in RVA human strains worldwide are G1P[8], G2P[4], G3P[8], G4P[8] and G9P[8]. RVA genotype G1P[8] strains are responsible for more than 50% of child infections worldwide and component of the two vaccines (Rotarix® [RV1] and RotaTeq® [RV5]) licensed globally. For a better understanding of the evolutionary mechanisms of this genotype in Brazil, phylogenetic analyses based on the 11 RVA genome segments (genomic constellation) from 90 G1P[8] RVA strains collected in two eras - (i) pre-vaccination with RV1 (1996-February 2006); (ii) post-vaccination (March 2006-2013) - in different Brazilian states were performed. The results showed the Wa-like genomic constellation of the Brazilian G1P[8] strains with a I1-R1-C1-M1-A1-N1-T1-E1-H1 specificity, except for two strains (rj14055-07 and ba19030-10) that belong to a I1-R1-C1-M1-A1-N1-T3-E1-H1 genomic constellation, evidencing the occurrence of reassortment (Wa-like×AU-1-like) of the NSP3 gene. Reassortment events were also demonstrated between Brazilian G1P[8] strains and the RV1 vaccine strain in some genes in vaccinated and unvaccinated children. VP7 and VP8* antigenic site analysis showed that the amino acid substitutions observed in samples collected after the introduction of RV1 in Brazil were already detected in samples collected in the 1980s and 1990s, suggesting that mass Brazilian RV1 vaccination had no impact on the diversity observed inside antigenic sites for these two proteins.

Increased detection of G3P[9] and G6P[9] rotavirus strains in hospitalized children with acute diarrhea in Bulgaria

Rotavirus severe disease in children is now vaccine-preventable and the roll-out of vaccination programs globally is expected to make a significant impact in the reduction of morbidity and mortality in children <5 years of age. Rotavirus is also a pathogen of other mammals and birds, and its segmented RNA genome can lead to the emergence of new or unusual strains in human population via interspecies transmission and reassortment events. Despite the efficacy and impact of rotavirus vaccine in preventing severe diarrhea, the correlates of protection remain largely unknown. Therefore, rotavirus strain surveillance before, during and after the introduction of immunization programs remains a crucial for monitoring rotavirus vaccine efficacy and impact. In this context, molecular characterization of 1323 Bulgarian rotavirus strains collected between June 2010 and May 2013 was performed. A total of 17 strains of interest were analyzed by partial sequence analysis. Twelve strains were characterized as G3P[9] and G6P[9] of potential animal origin. Phylogenetic analysis and comparisons with the same specificity strains detected sporadically between 2006 and 2010 revealed the constant circulation of these unusual human strains in Bulgaria, although in low prevalence, and their increased potential for person-to-person spread.

Rotavirus vaccines in routine use

Vaccines are now available to combat rotavirus, the most common cause of severe diarrhea among children worldwide. We review clinical trial data for available rotavirus vaccines and summarize postlicensure data on effectiveness, impact, and safety from countries routinely using these vaccines in national programs. In these countries, rotavirus vaccines have reduced all-cause diarrhea and rotavirus hospitalizations by 17%-55% and 49%-92%, respectively, and all-cause diarrhea deaths by 22%-50% in some settings. Indirect protection of children who are age-ineligible for rotavirus vaccine has also been observed in some high and upper middle income countries. Experience with routine use of rotavirus vaccines in lower middle income countries has been limited to date, but vaccine introductions in such countries have been increasing in recent years. The risk-benefit analysis of rotavirus vaccines is extremely favorable but other strategies to improve the effectiveness of the vaccine, particularly in lower middle income settings, should be considered.

Incidence of rotavirus and circulating genotypes in Northeast Brazil during 7 years of national rotavirus vaccination

Background and Aims

Rotavirus causes severe diarrhoea and Brazil introduced the Rotarix G1P[8] vaccine in 2006. We aimed to describe changes in rotavirus incidence and diarrhoea epidemiology before and after vaccine introduction.

Methods

Design: (i) hospital-based survey of children with diarrhoea (2006–2012); (ii) diarrhea-mortality and hospitalization surveillance (1999–2012).

Setting

(i) Aracaju and (ii) state and national level.

Results

1841 children were enrolled and 231 (12.5%) had rotavirus. Rotavirus was less frequent from January-June than from July-December (9.4% versus 20.9%, p<0.01), but the seasonal variation was less defined after 2009. Very few rotavirus cases (8–3.9%) were detected in 2011, with an increase in 2012 (13–18.5%). In 2006, unvaccinated children were more likely to have rotavirus, but thereafter unvaccinated and vaccinated children had equally low incidence. Older children and those with rotavirus were more likely to have severe diarrhea episodes. The most frequent genotype from 2006 to 2010 was G2P[4]; except in 2009, when most cases were G1P[8]. Very few G2P[4] were detected from 2011 and 50% cases in 2012 were G8P[4]. Diarrhoea-hospitalizations decreased nationally from 89,934 (2003) to 53,705 (2012; 40.3% reduction) and in the state from 1729 to 748 (56.7% reduction). Diarrhoea-deaths decreased nationally from 4368 in 1999 to 697 in 2012 (84% reduction, p<0.001) and in the state from 132 to 18 (86% reduction). These changes were much larger after vaccine introduction.

Conclusions

The vaccine was associated with substantial reductions in rotavirus incidence and diarrhoea-hospitalizations and deaths. The G2P[4] genotype predominance disappeared over time and may be replaced by other heterotypic genotypes.

The gastrointestinal frontier: IgA and viruses

Viral gastroenteritis is one of the leading causes of diseases that kill ~2.2 million people worldwide each year. IgA is one of the major immune effector products present in the gastrointestinal tract yet its importance in protection against gastrointestinal viral infections has been difficult to prove. In part this has been due to a lack of small and large animal models in which pathogenesis of and immunity to gastrointestinal viral infections is similar to that in humans. Much of what we have learned about the role of IgA in the intestinal immune response has been obtained from experimental animal models of rotavirus infection. Rotavirus-specific intestinal IgA appears to be one of the principle effectors of long term protection against rotavirus infection. Thus, there has been a focus on understanding the immunological pathways through which this virus-specific IgA is induced during infection. In addition, the experimental animal models of rotavirus infection provide excellent systems in which new areas of research on viral-specific intestinal IgA including the long term maintenance of viral-specific IgA.