A systematic review of the social and economic burden of influenza in low- and middle-income countries

Comparing physician and large language model responses to influenza patient questions in the online health community

INTRODUCTION

During influenza season, some patients tend to seek medical advice through online platforms. However, due to time constraints, the informational and emotional support provided by physicians is limited. Large language models (LLMs) can rapidly provide medical knowledge and empathy, but their capacity for providing informational support to patients with influenza and assisting physicians in providing emotional support is unclear. Therefore, this study evaluated the quality of LLM-generated influenza advice and its emotional support performance in comparison with physician advice.

METHODS

This study utilized 200 influenza question-answer pairs from the online health community. Data collection consisted of two parts: (1) A panel of board-certified physicians evaluated the quality of LLM advice vs physician advice. (2) Physician advice was polished using an LLM, and the LLM-rewritten advice was compared to the original physician advice using the LLM module.

RESULTS

For informational support, there was no significant difference between LLM and physician advice in terms of the presence of incorrect information, omission of information, extent of harm or empathy. Nevertheless, compared to physician advice, LLM advice was more likely to cause harm and to be in line with medical consensus. LLM was also able to assist physicians in providing emotional support, since the LLM-rewritten advice was significantly more respectful, friendly and empathetic, when compared with physician advice. Also, the LLM-rewritten advice was logically smooth. In most cases, LLM did not add or omit the original medical information.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that LLMs can provide informational and emotional support for influenza patients. This may help to alleviate the pressure on physicians and promote physician-patient communication.

Cilnidipine exerts antiviral effects in vitro and in vivo by inhibiting the internalization and fusion of influenza A virus

BACKGROUND

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a major cause of seasonal and global pandemics, posing serious health risks. Repositioning approved drugs offers an efficient antiviral strategy, particularly as calcium (Ca2⁺) is crucial for IAV infection, making Ca2⁺ channel blockers (CCBs) promising candidates for antiviral agents.

METHODS

The in vitro antiviral activity of cilnidipine was evaluated using MTT assays, qRT-PCR, plaque assays, and western blotting. Mechanistic studies involved time-of-addition, viral internalization, pseudovirus neutralization, and HA (hemagglutinin) syncytium assays. For in vivo analysis, BALB/c mice were intranasally infected to evaluate the effects of cilnidipine on viral titer, lung index, pulmonary inflammatory mediators, and survival rate.

RESULTS

In vitro, cilnidipine exhibits antiviral activity against IAV during the early stages of infection. It disrupts clathrin- and caveolin-mediated endocytosis to inhibit the internalization of IAV and interacts with the viral HA2 subunit to impede virus membrane fusion. Additionally, cilnidipine suppresses the PI3K-AKT and p38 MAPK pathways activated by IAV infections. In vivo, cilnidipine reduces virus titers and lung index, ameliorates lung pathology, and inhibits pulmonary inflammatory mediator expression, improving survival rates.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the promising anti-IAV properties of cilnidipine both in vitro and in vivo, suggesting its potential as a clinical agent for emergencies against influenza outbreaks.

Seasonal influenza surveillance and vaccination policies in the WHO South-East Asian Region

The WHO South-East Asia Region (SEAR), with its high population density, is recognised by epidemiologists as a critical reservoir for the emergence and global dissemination of novel influenza strains, making it a potential epicentre for future influenza pandemics. Despite this significant risk, most SEAR countries lack comprehensive seasonal influenza vaccination policies, resulting in low vaccine uptake across the region. This review analysed the latest WHO National Influenza Programme factsheets from the 11 SEAR member states and supplemented this with extensive manual literature searches using electronic databases and government websites. As of October 2022, only three countries-India, Bhutan and Thailand-had established seasonal influenza vaccination policies. Among them, Bhutan and Thailand have policies that cover all five WHO-recommended high-risk groups. While national influenza surveillance systems are in place across SEAR, only India and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea claim full population coverage. Influenza vaccine production capacity is limited to Bangladesh, India and Indonesia. The region's varied climatic conditions and insufficient local data have further obscured the true burden of influenza. Thailand offers a successful model for other countries in the region, beginning with the most vulnerable groups and gradually expanding coverage. To effectively develop and implement national influenza vaccination policies, SEAR countries must close the evidence gap by strengthening surveillance systems to provide accurate, timely data and prioritise context-specific research, leverage existing vaccine infrastructure, enhance public education and finally engage with local and international stakeholders to establish strong international cooperation to support these efforts and improve pandemic preparedness.

A novel graph neural network based approach for influenza-like illness nowcasting: exploring the interplay of temporal, geographical, and functional spatial features

BACKGROUND

Accurate and timely monitoring of influenza prevalence is essential for effective healthcare interventions. This study proposes a graph neural network (GNN)-based method to address the issue of cross-regional connectivity in predicting influenza outbreaks, aiming to achieve real-time and accurate influenza prediction.

METHODS

We proposed a GNN-based approach with dual topology processing, capturing both geographical and socio-economic associations among counties/cities. The model inputs consist of weekly matrices of influenza-like illness (ILI) rates at city level, along with geographical topology and functional topology. The model construction involves temporal feature extraction through 1-dimensional gated causal convolution, spatial feature embedding through graph convolution, and additional adjustments to enhance spatiotemporal interaction exploration. Evaluation metrics include four commonly used measures: root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Pearson correlation (Corr).

RESULTS

Our approach for predicting influenza outbreaks achieves competitive performance on real-world datasets (Corr = 0.8202; RMSE = 0.0017; MAE = 0.0013; MAPE = 0.0966), surpassing established baselines. Notably, our approach exhibits excellent capability in accurately and timely capturing short-term influenza outbreaks during the flu season, outperforming competitors across all evaluation metrics.

CONCLUSION

The incorporation of dual topology processing and the subsequent fusion mechanism allows the model to explore in-depth spatiotemporal feature interactions. Demonstrating superior performance, our approach shows great potential in early detection of flu trends for facilitating public health decisions and resource optimization.

Costs of Influenza Illness and Acute Respiratory Infections by Household Income Level: Catastrophic Health Expenditures and Implications for Health Equity

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza illness and acute respiratory infections can impose a substantial economic burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We assessed the cost of influenza illness and acute respiratory infections across household income strata.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a prior systematic review of costs of influenza and other respiratory illnesses in LMICs and contacted authors to obtain data on cost of illness (COI) for laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness and acute respiratory infection. We calculated the COI by household income strata and calculated the out-of-pocket (OOP) cost as a proportion of household income.

RESULTS

We included 11 studies representing 11 LMICs. OOP expenses, as a proportion of annual household income, were highest among the lowest income quintile in 10 of 11 studies: in 4/4 studies among the general population, in 6/7 studies among children, 2/2 studies among older adults, and in the sole study for adults with chronic medical conditions. COI was generally higher for hospitalizations compared with outpatient illnesses; median OOP costs for hospitalizations exceeded 10% of annual household income among the general population and children in Kenya, as well as for older adults and adults with chronic medical conditions in China.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that influenza and acute respiratory infections pose a considerable economic burden, particularly from hospitalizations, on the lowest income households in LMICs. Future evaluations could investigate specific drivers of COI in low-income household and identify interventions that may address these, including exploring household coping mechanisms. Cost-effectiveness analyses could incorporate health inequity analyses, in pursuit of health equity.

Tumorigenicity decrease in Bcl-xL deficient MDCK cells ensuring the safety for influenza vaccine production

Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells are the recognized cell strain for influenza vaccine production. However, the tumorigenic potential of MDCK cells raises concerns about their use in biological product manufacturing. To reduce MDCK cells' tumorigenicity and ensure the safety of influenza vaccine production, a B-cell lymphoma extra-large (Bcl-xL) gene, which plays a pivotal role in apoptosis regulation, was knocked-out in original MDCK cells by CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing technology, so that a homozygous MDCK-Bcl-xL-/- cell strain was acquired and named as BY-02. Compared with original MDCK cells, the proliferation and migration ability of BY-02 were significantly reduced, while apoptosis level was significantly increased, the endogenous mitochondrial apoptotic pathway were also modulated after Bcl-xL knock-out in MDCK cells. For tumor formation assays in nude mouse tests, all ten mice injected with original MDCK cells presented tumors growth in the injection site, in contrast to only one mouse injected with BY-02 cells presented tumors growth. These findings suggest that Bcl-xL knock-down is an effective strategy to inhibit tumor formation in MDCK cells, making BY-02 a promising genetically engineered cell strain for influenza vaccine production.

Promoting Influenza Vaccination Uptake Among Chinese Older Adults Based on Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model and Conditional Economic Incentive: Protocol for Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Influenza poses a substantial health burden, especially among older adults in China. While vaccination is one of the most effective preventions, influenza vaccine uptake rates among Chinese older adults remain low. This study examines the individual and combined effects of behavioral interventions based on the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model and economic incentives in promoting influenza vaccine uptake among older adults living in China. Methods: The study will recruit 640 older adults living in eight communities that have not been covered by the free influenza vaccination policy. These eight communities (as clusters), stratified by urban and rural, will be randomized to four parallel arms, including a usual care arm, an IMB-based behavioral intervention arm, a conditional economic incentive arm, and a combined behavioral-economic arm. The interventions will start from the beginning of the flu season and last for about one month. Specifically, the IMB-based behavioral intervention encompasses health education brochures, healthcare provider-led lectures, interactive quizzes, and personalized consultations. The exact number of economic incentives is conditional on the timing of vaccination (a higher amount for early immunization) and the number of people within a household to be vaccinated at the same appointment (a higher amount for more people). The primary outcome is the influenza vaccination rate. Data will be gathered through vaccination records and questionnaires covering IMB-based vaccination cognitions. Mixed-effects models will be used to analyze the outcome of vaccination rate, reporting difference-in-differences estimates with 95% confidence intervals. Conclusions: The results of this study have the potential to inform influenza vaccination program scaleup among older adults who are not yet covered by the free influenza vaccination policy. Ethics and dissemination: Ethics approval has been granted by the ethics commission of Peking University Health Science Centre (IRB00001052-24090). Participants will be required to sign a written consent form. Findings will be reported in conferences and peer-reviewed publications in accordance with the recommendations of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials. Registration number: This study was registered at the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2400090229).

An Optimised Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine Ferret Efficacy Model Successfully Translates H1N1 Clinical Data

Between 2013 and 2016, the A/H1N1pdm09 component of the live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) produced instances of lower-than-expected vaccine effectiveness. Standard pre-clinical ferret models, using a human-like vaccine dose and focusing on antigenic match to circulating wildtype (wt) strains, were unable to predict these fluctuations. By optimising the vaccine dose and utilising clinically relevant endpoints, we aimed to develop a ferret efficacy model able to reproduce clinical observations. Ferrets were intranasally vaccinated with 4 Log10 FFU/animal (1000-fold reduction compared to clinical dose) of seven historical LAIV formulations with known (19-90%) H1N1 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness (VE). Following homologous H1N1 wt virus challenge, protection was assessed based on primary endpoints of wt virus shedding in the upper respiratory tract and the development of fever. LAIV formulations with high (82-90%) H1N1 VE provided significant protection from wt challenge, while formulations with reduced (19-32%) VE tended not to provide significant protection. The strongest correlation observed was between reduction in wt shedding and VE (R2 = 0.75). Conversely, serum immunogenicity following vaccination was not a reliable indicator of protection (R2 = 0.37). This demonstrated that, by optimisation of the vaccine dose and the use of non-serological, clinically relevant protection endpoints, the ferret model could successfully translate clinical H1N1 LAIV VE data.

Research progress on environmental stability of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses

We reviewed research on SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus detection on surfaces, their persistence under various conditions, and response to disinfectants. Viral contamination in community and healthcare settings was analyzed, emphasizing survival on surfaces influenced by temperature, pH, and material. Findings showed higher concentrations enhance survivability at room temperature, whereas stability increases at 4°C. Both viruses decline in low pH and high heat, with influenza affected by salinity. On various material surfaces, SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses demonstrate considerable variations in survival durations, and SARS-CoV-2 is more stable than influenza virus. On the skin, both virus types can persist for ≥2 h. Next, we delineated the virucidal efficacy of disinfectants against SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. In daily life, exposure to ethanol (70%), isopropanol (70%), bleach (10%), or hydrogen peroxide (1-3%) for 15-30 min can effectively inactive various SARS-CoV-2 variants. Povidone-iodine (1 mg/mL, 1 min) or cetylpyridinium chloride (0.1 mg/mL, 2 min) may be used to inactive different SARS-CoV-2 variants in the mouth. Chlorine disinfectants (500 mg/L) or ultraviolet light (222 nm) can effectively inhibit different SARS-CoV-2 variants in public spaces. In conclusion, our study provides a scientific basis and practical guidance for reduction of viral persistence (retention of infectivity) on surfaces and environmental cleanliness.

Costs of in- and outpatient respiratory disease and the seasonal influenza vaccination program in Armenia - 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

Despite the substantial global impact of influenza, there are limited economic data to guide influenza vaccination programs investments in middle-income countries. We measured the costs of influenza and the costs of an influenza vaccination program in Armenia, using a societal perspective.

METHODS

During December 2022 through March 2023, retrospective cost data were collected from case-patients and healthcare providers through structured questionnaires at 15 healthcare facilities selected through stratified sampling. Medical costs included medications, laboratory costs, laboratory and diagnostic tests, and routine health care service costs and direct and indirect societal costs were included. Vaccination program costs from the 2021-2022 influenza season were identified using accounting records and categorized as: planning, distribution, training, social mobilization and outreach, supervision and monitoring, procurement, and national- and facility-level administration and storage.

RESULTS

The mean costs per episode for SARI and ILI case-patients were $US 823.6 and $US 616.57, respectively. Healthcare service costs were the largest direct expenses for ILI and SARI case-patients. Total costs of the 2021-2022 influenza vaccination program to the government were $US 4,353,738, with the largest costs associated with national- and facility-level administration and storage (30% and 65% respectively). The total cost per dose administered was $US 25.61 ($US 7.73 per dose for procurement and $US 17.88 for the marginal administration cost per dose).

CONCLUSIONS

These data on the costs of seasonal influenza prevention programs and the societal costs of influenza illness in Armenia may inform national vaccine policy decisions in Armenia and may be useful for other middle-income countries. Influenza vaccines, like other vaccine programs, are recognized as substantially contributing to the reduction disease burden and associated mortality and further driving economic growth. However, a formal cost-effectiveness analysis should be performed once burden of disease data are available.

Austerity Measures and the Resilience of Zimbabwe's Healthcare System: Challenges and Solutions

Austerity measures have become a contentious topic, shaping the landscape of health care systems around the world. As governments grapple with economic challenges, the impact of austerity on health care has emerged as a critical concern. This study focuses on the consequences of austerity actions adopted by the Zimbabwean government under the Transitional Stabilization Program (TSP) from August 2018 to December 2025. This research examines the impact of austerity measures on Zimbabwe's health care sector, exploring its connections with health infrastructure and resources, accessibility and affordability of health care, health funding, health care inequalities, and the health care workforce. Using a quantitative approach and data from 970 participants, including the general populace, health care providers, and government officials, significant positive correlations between austerity measures and these health care variables were identified. The findings indicated a noteworthy positive correlation between the independent variable "austerity measures" and five dependent variables: health care accessibility and affordability, health care inequalities, infrastructure and resources, health care funding, and health care workforce. The t-statistics values exceeded the threshold of 1.96, with values of 5.085, 3.120, 6.459, 8.517, and 3.830, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of considering the effects of austerity on health care access, health funding, health care inequalities, health workforce, health infrastructure and resources development. Policymakers should prioritize equitable resource allocation and targeted investments to strengthen the resilience of the health care system during economic challenges. Understanding these associations is crucial for evidence-based policy decisions and fostering a more equitable and resilient health care system in Zimbabwe.

Caregiver Burden among Patients with Influenza or Influenza-like Illness (ILI): A Systematic Literature Review

Influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) pose significant clinical and economic burdens globally each year. This systematic literature review examined quantitative studies evaluating the impact of patients' influenza/ILI on their caregivers' well-being, focusing on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), work productivity, and activity impairment. A comprehensive search across six databases, including the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase, MEDLINE via PubMed, Ovid, PsycNet, and Web of Science, yielded 18,689 records, of which 13,156 abstracts were screened, and 662 full-text articles were reviewed from January 2007 to April 2024. Thirty-six studies [HRQoL: 2; productivity: 33; both: 1] covering 22 countries were included. Caregivers of 47,758 influenza or ILI patients across 123 study cohorts were assessed in the review. The mean workday loss among caregivers ranged from 0.5 to 10.7 days per episode, influenced by patients' influenza status (positive or negative), disease severity (mild or moderate-to-severe), age, viral type (influenza A or B), and vaccination/treatment usage. The HRQoL of caregivers, including their physical and emotional well-being, was affected by a patient's influenza or ILI, where the severity and duration of a patient's illness were associated with worse HRQoL. This review shows that the consequences of influenza or ILI significantly affect not only patients but also their caregivers.

Global burden associated with 85 pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Despite a global epidemiological transition towards increased burden of non-communicable diseases, communicable diseases continue to cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. Understanding the burden of a wide range of infectious diseases, and its variation by geography and age, is pivotal to research priority setting and resource mobilisation globally.

METHODS

We estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with 85 pathogens in 2019, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. The term pathogen included causative agents, pathogen groups, infectious conditions, and aggregate categories. We applied a novel methodological approach to account for underlying, immediate, and intermediate causes of death, which counted every death for which a pathogen had a role in the pathway to death. We refer to this measure as the burden associated with infection, which was estimated by combining different sources of information. To compare the burden among all pathogens, we used pathogen-specific ratios to incorporate the burden of immediate and intermediate causes of death for pathogens modelled previously by the GBD. We created the ratios by using multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, linkage data, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data to estimate the fraction of deaths coming from the pathway to death chain. We multiplied the pathogen-specific ratios by age-specific years of life lost (YLLs), calculated with GBD 2019 methods, and then added the adjusted YLLs to age-specific years lived with disability (YLDs) from GBD 2019 to produce adjusted DALYs to account for deaths in the chain. We used standard GBD methods to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates of DALYs by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. We provided burden estimates pertaining to all ages and specifically to the under 5 years age group.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, an estimated 704 million (95% UI 610-820) DALYs were associated with 85 different pathogens, including 309 million (250-377; 43·9% of the burden) in children younger than 5 years. This burden accounted for 27·7% (and 65·5% in those younger than 5 years) of the previously reported total DALYs from all causes in 2019. Comparing super-regions, considerable differences were observed in the estimated pathogen-associated burdens in relation to DALYs from all causes, with the highest burden observed in sub-Saharan Africa (314 million [270-368] DALYs; 61·5% of total regional burden) and the lowest in the high-income super-region (31·8 million [25·4-40·1] DALYs; 9·8%). Three leading pathogens were responsible for more than 50 million DALYs each in 2019: tuberculosis (65·1 million [59·0-71·2]), malaria (53·6 million [27·0-91·3]), and HIV or AIDS (52·1 million [46·6-60·9]). Malaria was the leading pathogen for DALYs in children younger than 5 years (37·2 million [17·8-64·2]). We also observed substantial burden associated with previously less recognised pathogens, including Staphylococcus aureus and specific Gram-negative bacterial species (ie, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Helicobacter pylori). Conversely, some pathogens had a burden that was smaller than anticipated.

INTERPRETATION

Our detailed breakdown of DALYs associated with a comprehensive list of pathogens on a global, regional, and country level has revealed the magnitude of the problem and helps to indicate where research funding mismatch might exist. Given the disproportionate impact of infection on low-income and middle-income countries, an essential next step is for countries and relevant stakeholders to address these gaps by making targeted investments.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Incidence of Hospitalization due to Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Infection During 2010-2019 in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Global influenza-associated acute respiratory infections contribute to 3-5 million severe illnesses requiring hospitalization annually, with 90% of hospitalizations occurring among children < 5 years in developing countries. In Bangladesh, the inadequate availability of nationally representative, robust estimates of influenza-associated hospitalizations limits allocation of resources for prevention and control measures.

METHODS

This study used data from the hospital-based influenza surveillance (HBIS) system in Bangladesh from 2010 to 2019 and healthcare utilization surveys to determine hospital utilization patterns in the catchment area. We estimated annual influenza-associated hospitalization numbers and rates for all age groups in Bangladesh using WHO methods, adjusted for a 6-day-a-week enrollment schedule, selective testing of specimens from children under five, and healthcare-seeking behavior, based on the proportion of symptomatic community participants seeking healthcare within the past week. We then estimated national hospitalization rates by multiplying age-specific hospitalization rates with the corresponding annual national census population.

RESULTS

Annual influenza-associated hospitalization rates per 100,000 population for all ages ranged from 31 (95% CI: 27-36) in 2011 to 139 (95% CI: 130-149) in 2019. Children < 5 years old had the highest rates of influenza-associated hospitalization, ranging from 114 (95% CI: 90-138) in 2011 to 529 (95% CI: 481-578) in 2019, followed by adults aged ≥ 65 years with rates ranging from 46 (95% CI: 34-57) in 2012 to 252 (95% CI: 213-292) in 2019. The national hospitalization estimates for all ages during 2010-2019 ranged from 47,891 to 236,380 per year.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of influenza-associated hospitalizations in Bangladesh may be considerable, particularly for young children and older adults. Targeted interventions, such as influenza vaccination for these age groups, should be prioritized and evaluated.

Cross-sectional study of influenza trends and costs in Malaysia between 2016 and 2018

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

While influenza circulates year-round in Malaysia, research data on its incidence is scarce. Yet, this information is vital to the improvement of public health through evidence-based policies. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to determine the trends and financial costs of influenza.

METHODS

Data for the years 2016 through 2018 were gathered retrospectively from several sources. These were existing Ministry of Health (MOH) influenza sentinel sites data, two teaching hospitals, and two private medical institutions in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. Expert consensus determined the final estimates of burden for laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). Economic burden was estimated separately using secondary data supplemented by MOH casemix costing.

RESULTS

Altogether, data for 11,652 cases of ILI and 5,764 cases of SARI were extracted. The influenza B subtype was found to be predominant in 2016, while influenza A was more prevalent in 2017 and 2018. The distribution timeline revealed that the highest frequency of cases occurred in March and April of all three years. The costs of influenza amounted to MYR 310.9 million over the full three-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides valuable insights into the dynamic landscape of influenza in Malaysia. The findings reveal a consistent year-round presence of influenza with irregular seasonal peaks, including a notable influenza A epidemic in 2017 and consistent surges in influenza B incidence during March across three years. These findings underscore the significance of continuous monitoring influenza subtypes for informed healthcare strategies as well as advocate for the integration of influenza vaccination into Malaysia's national immunization program, enhancing overall pandemic preparedness.

Socioeconomic impacts of airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases on industries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Recent pandemics have had far-reaching effects on the world's largest economies and amplified the need to estimate the full extent and range of socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases outbreaks on multi-sectoral industries. This systematic review aims to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases outbreaks on industries.

METHODS

A structured, systematic review was performed according to the PRISMA guidelines. Databases of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, IDEAS/REPEC, OSHLINE, HSELINE, and NIOSHTIC-2 were reviewed. Study quality appraisal was performed using the Table of Evidence Levels from Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Joanna Briggs Institute tools, Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool, and Center of Evidence Based Management case study critical appraisal checklist. Quantitative analysis was not attempted due to the heterogeneity of included studies. A qualitative synthesis of primary studies examining socioeconomic impact of airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases outbreaks in any industry was performed and a framework based on empirical findings was conceptualized.

RESULTS

A total of 55 studies conducted from 1984 to 2021 were included, reporting on 46,813,038 participants working in multiple industries across the globe. The quality of articles were good. On the whole, direct socioeconomic impacts of Coronavirus Disease 2019, influenza, influenza A (H1N1), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, tuberculosis and norovirus outbreaks include increased morbidity, mortality, and health costs. This had then led to indirect impacts including social impacts such as employment crises and reduced workforce size as well as economic impacts such as demand shock, supply chain disruptions, increased supply and production cost, service and business disruptions, and financial and Gross Domestic Product loss, attributable to productivity losses from illnesses as well as national policy responses to contain the diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence suggests that airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases have inflicted severe socioeconomic costs on regional and global industries. Further research is needed to better understand their long-term socioeconomic impacts to support improved industry preparedness and response capacity for outbreaks. Public and private stakeholders at local, national, and international levels must join forces to ensure informed systems and sector-specific cost-sharing strategies for optimal global health and economic security.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of influenza illness and vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review from 2012 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Historically, lack of data on cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination has been identified as a barrier to vaccine use in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted a systematic review of economic evaluations describing (1) costs of influenza illness; (2) costs of influenza vaccination programs; and (3) vaccination cost-effectiveness from low- and middle-income countries to assess if gaps persist that could hinder global implementation of influenza vaccination programs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a systematic search in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and Scopus in January 2022 and October 2023 using a combination of the following key words: "influenza" AND "cost" OR "economic." The search included studies with publication years 2012 through 2022. Studies were eligible if they (1) presented original, peer-reviewed findings on cost of illness, cost of vaccination program, or cost-effectiveness of vaccination for seasonal influenza; and (2) included data for at least 1 low- or middle-income country. We abstracted general study characteristics and data specific to each of the 3 study types. Of 54 included studies, 26 presented data on cost-effectiveness, 24 on cost-of-illness, and 5 on program costs. Represented countries were classified as upper-middle income (UMIC; n = 12), lower-middle income (LMIC; n = 7), and low-income (LIC; n = 3). The most evaluated target groups were children (n = 26 studies), older adults (n = 17), and persons with chronic medical conditions (n = 12); fewer studies evaluated pregnant persons (n = 9), healthcare workers (n = 5), and persons in congregate living settings (n = 1). Costs-of-illness were generally higher in UMICs than in LMICs/LICs; however, the highest national economic burden, as a percent of gross domestic product and national health expenditure, was reported from an LIC. Among studies that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine introduction, most (88%) interpreted at least 1 scenario per target group as either cost-effective or cost-saving, based on thresholds designated in the study. Key limitations of this work included (1) heterogeneity across included studies; (2) restrictiveness of the inclusion criteria used; and (3) potential for missed influenza burden from use of sentinel surveillance systems.

CONCLUSIONS

The 54 studies identified in this review suggest an increased momentum to generate economic evidence about influenza illness and vaccination from low- and middle-income countries during 2012 to 2022. However, given that we observed substantial heterogeneity, continued evaluation of the economic burden of influenza illness and costs/cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination, particularly in LICs and among underrepresented target groups (e.g., healthcare workers and pregnant persons), is needed. Use of standardized methodology could facilitate pooling across settings and knowledge sharing to strengthen global influenza vaccination programs.

Burden of seasonal influenza in the Swiss adult population during the 2016/2017-2018/2019 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the burden of seasonal influenza in Switzerland is scarce, yet it is critical for the design of effective prevention and control measures. The objective of this study was to assess influenza-related resource utilization, health care expenditures and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost in Switzerland across the 2016/2017-2018/2019 influenza seasons.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed multiple real-world data sources to calculate epidemiological and health outcomes, QALYs lost, and direct medical costs due to influenza in the Swiss adult population. Subgroups included residents 18-49, 50-64, and 65+ years of age. The observation period was Week 26, 2016, to Week 25, 2019.

RESULTS

Across the three seasons, we estimated seasonal averages of 203,090 (se ± 26,717) general practitioner (GP) visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) 4944 (se ± 785) influenza-attributable hospitalizations and 1355 (se ± 169) excess deaths attributable to influenza. We estimated a total loss of 8429 (2016/2017), 11,179 (2017/2018), and 7701 (2018/2019) QALYs due to influenza. On average, 88% of the loss in QALYs was attributed to premature deaths due to influenza. The total direct medical costs amounted to 44.4 (2016/2017), 77.3 (2017/2018), and 64.5 (2018/2019) million euros. On average, 79.6% of the total costs arose due to hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

In Switzerland, the burden of influenza on patients and payers is significant and particularly high in the elderly population. Policy interventions to increase vaccination rates and the uptake of more effective vaccines among the elderly are needed to reduce the burden of influenza.

Comparisons in the Health and Economic Assessments of Using Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccines: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVES

Seasonal influenza vaccines protect against 3 (trivalent influenza vaccine [IIV3]) or 4 (quadrivalent influenza vaccine [IIV4]) viruses. IIV4 costs more than IIV3, and there is a trade-off between incremental cost and protection. This is especially the case in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with limited budgets; previous reviews have not identified studies of IIV4-IIV3 comparisons in LMICs. We summarized the literature that compared health and economic outcomes of IIV4 and IIV3, focused on LMICs.

METHODS

We systematically searched 5 databases for articles published before October 6, 2021, that modeled health or economic effects of IIV4 versus IIV3. We abstracted data and compared findings among countries and models.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight studies fit our selection criteria; 10 included LMICs. Most studies (N = 31) reported that IIV4 was cost-saving or cost-effective compared with IIV3; we observed no difference in health or economic outcomes between LMICs and other countries. Based on cost differences of influenza vaccines, only one study compared coverage of IIV3 with IIV4 and reported that the maximum IIV4 price that would still yield greater public health impact than IIV3 was 13% to 22% higher than IIV3.

CONCLUSIONS

When vaccination coverage with IIV4 and IIV3 is the same, IIV4 tends to be not only more effective but more cost-effective than IIV3, even with relatively high price differences between vaccine types. Alternatively, where funding is limited as in most LMICs, higher vaccine coverage can be achieved with IIV3 than IIV4, which could result in more favorable health and economic outcomes.

Intradermal Immunization of Soluble Influenza HA Derived from a Lethal Virus Induces High Magnitude and Breadth of Antibody Responses and Provides Complete Protection In Vivo

Immunogens mimicking the native-like structure of surface-exposed viral antigens are considered promising vaccine candidates. Influenza viruses are important zoonotic respiratory viruses with high pandemic potential. Recombinant soluble hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein-based protein subunit vaccines against Influenza have been shown to induce protective efficacy when administered intramuscularly. Here, we have expressed a recombinant soluble trimeric HA protein in Expi 293F cells and purified the protein derived from the Inf A/Guangdong-Maonan/ SWL1536/2019 virus which was found to be highly virulent in the mouse. The trimeric HA protein was found to be in the oligomeric state, highly stable, and the efficacy study in the BALB/c mouse challenge model through intradermal immunization with the prime-boost regimen conferred complete protection against a high lethal dose of homologous and mouse-adapted InfA/PR8 virus challenge. Furthermore, the immunogen induced high hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) titers and showed cross-protection against other Inf A and Inf B subtypes. The results are promising and warrant trimeric HA as a suitable vaccine candidate.

Prevalence and Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Uptake in Saudi Arabia Post COVID-19: A Web-Based Online Cross-Sectional Study

In the fall of 2022, the number of influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) and severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) in Saudi Arabia had significantly increased compared with the corresponding period in previous years. Concerns regarding the population's seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) uptake rates have emerged. In particular, the SIV uptake rates may have dropped post the COVID-19 pandemic compared with rates prior to the COVID-19 era. In this study, we aimed to estimate the prevalence and predictors of SIV uptake in Saudi Arabia post the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a cross-sectional study utilizing an online survey platform. We mainly collected sociodemographic information and determined whether the respondent was a healthcare professional or had a chronic disease. The overall SIV uptake prevalence was 31.8%. A lower SIV uptake was observed among those aged 55 years or older, females, residents of the central region, non-health practitioners, and those without chronic diseases. Several factors were associated with SIV uptake. Those aged 35-44 were over three-fold more likely to receive an SIV than those aged 55 years or older (OR: 3.66; 95% CI: 1.33-10.05). In addition, males had 73% higher odds of SIV uptake than females (OR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.18-2.55). Health practitioners were more likely to receive an SIV than non-health practitioners (OR: 2.11; 95% CI: 1.45-3.06). Similarly, those with chronic diseases had 86% higher odds of SIV uptake than those without chronic diseases (OR: 1.86; 95% CI: 1.18-2.95). These findings can provide insights into the low prevalence and predictors of SIV uptake in Saudi Arabia. Future studies should be conducted to further explore the potential factors associated with such a low prevalence of SIV uptake post COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.

Cell-Based Manufacturing Technology Increases Antigenic Match of Influenza Vaccine and Results in Improved Effectiveness

To ensure that vaccination offers the best protection against an infectious disease, sequence identity between the vaccine and the circulating strain is paramount. During replication of nucleic acid, random mutations occur due to the level of polymerase fidelity. In traditional influenza vaccine manufacture, vaccine viruses are propagated in fertilized chicken eggs, which can result in egg-adaptive mutations in the antigen-encoding genes. Whilst this improves infection and replication in eggs, mutations may reduce the effectiveness of egg-based influenza vaccines against circulating human viruses. In contrast, egg-adaptive mutations are avoided when vaccine viruses are propagated in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cell lines during manufacture of cell-based inactivated influenza vaccines. The first mammalian cell-only strain was included in Flucelvax® Quadrivalent in 2017. A sequence analysis of the viruses selected for inclusion in this vaccine (n = 15 vaccine strains, containing both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase) demonstrated that no mutations occur in the antigenic sites of either hemagglutinin or neuraminidase, indicating that cell adaptation does not occur during production of this cell-based vaccine. The development of this now entirely mammalian-based vaccine system, which incorporates both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, ensures that the significant protective antigens are equivalent to the strains recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in both amino acid sequence and glycosylation pattern. The inclusion of both proteins in a vaccine may provide an advantage over recombinant vaccines containing hemagglutinin alone. Findings from real world effectiveness studies support the use of cell-based influenza vaccines.

Clinical and economic burden of physician-diagnosed influenza in adults during the 2017/2018 epidemic season in Spain

BACKGROUND

Influenza is an acutely debilitating respiratory infection, contributing significantly to outpatient visits and hospitalizations. Spain lacks comprehensive and updated data on the burden of influenza, particularly in the outpatient setting. Our study aimed to fill this gap by estimating the clinical and economic burden of physician-diagnosed influenza cases in adults from four Spanish regions, stratified by age groups and presence of comorbidities.

METHODS

A retrospective cost-of-illness study was conducted using data from an electronic medical records database from the National Healthcare Service (NHS) of four Spanish regions for individuals aged ≥ 18 years diagnosed for influenza during the 2017/2018 epidemic season. Health resource utilization and related cost data were collected, including primary care visits, referrals to other specialists, visits to the emergency department, hospitalizations, and prescribed medicines.

RESULTS

The study reported a total of 28,381 patients aged ≥ 18 years diagnosed with influenza, corresponding to 1,804 cases per 100,000 population. Most patients were aged < 65 years: 60.5% (n = 17,166) aged 18-49 and 26.3% (n = 7,451) 50-64 years. A total of 39.2% (n = 11,132) of patients presented a comorbidity. Cardiovascular diseases were the most common comorbidity reported along with influenza. The mean healthcare cost per case was estimated at €235.1 in population aged 18-49 years, increasing by 1.7 and 4.9 times in those aged 50-64 (€402.0) and ≥ 65 (€1,149.0), respectively. The mean healthcare cost per case was 3.2 times higher in patients with comorbidities. The total healthcare cost of medically attended influenza cases was mainly driven by primary care (45.1%) and hospitalization (42.0%). Patients aged 18-64 years old accounted for 61.9% of the costs of medically attended influenza. Irrespective of age, patients with comorbidities accounted for 67.1% of costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Season 2017/2018 was associated with a considerable burden of influenza in Spain, which increased with age and presence of comorbidities. Individuals with comorbidities accounted for most of the costs of influenza. Results suggest that population aged 18-64 years old is generating the highest share of costs to the NHS when all healthcare costs are considered. Preventive strategies targeting subjects with comorbidities, regardless of age, should be warranted.

Clinical and Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Agricultural Workers, Guatemala1

We evaluated clinical and socioeconomic burdens of respiratory disease in banana farm workers in Guatemala. We offered all eligible workers enrollment during June 15-December 30, 2020, and annually, then tracked them for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) through self-reporting to study nurses, sentinel surveillance at health posts, and absenteeism. Workers who had ILI submitted nasopharyngeal swab specimens for testing for influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, and SARS-CoV-2, then completed surveys at days 0, 7, and 28. Through October 10, 2021, a total of 1,833 workers reported 169 ILIs (12.0 cases/100 person-years), and 43 (25.4%) were laboratory-confirmed infections with SARS-CoV-2 (3.1 cases/100 person-years). Workers who had SARS-CoV-2‒positive ILIs reported more frequent anosmia, dysgeusia, difficulty concentrating, and irritability and worse clinical and well-being severity scores than workers who had test result‒negative ILIs. Workers who had positive results also had greater absenteeism and lost income. These results support prioritization of farm workers in Guatemala for COVID-19 vaccination.

Distinct immunological and molecular signatures underpinning influenza vaccine responsiveness in the elderly

Seasonal influenza outbreaks, especially in high-risk groups such as the elderly, represent an important public health problem. Prevailing inadequate efficacy of seasonal vaccines is a crucial bottleneck. Understanding the immunological and molecular mechanisms underpinning differential influenza vaccine responsiveness is essential to improve vaccination strategies. Here we show comprehensive characterization of the immune response of randomly selected elderly participants (≥ 65 years), immunized with the adjuvanted influenza vaccine Fluad. In-depth analyses by serology, multi-parametric flow cytometry, multiplex and transcriptome analysis, coupled to bioinformatics and mathematical modelling, reveal distinguishing immunological and molecular features between responders and non-responders defined by vaccine-induced seroconversion. Non-responders are specifically characterized by multiple suppressive immune mechanisms. The generated comprehensive high dimensional dataset enables the identification of putative mechanisms and nodes responsible for vaccine non-responsiveness independently of confounding age-related effects, with the potential to facilitate development of tailored vaccination strategies for the elderly.

The Economic Impact of the SARS Epidemic with Related Interventions in China

Epidemics represent a threat to human life and economy. Meanwhile, medical and non-medical approaches to fight against them may result in additional economic shocks. In this paper, we examine the economic impact of the 2003 SARS outbreak in China and associated government policies. Although the epidemic caused a substantial economic loss in the short term, the interventions for medical purposes positively impacted the economy of the severely affected regions through the increase in investments such as other fiscal stimuli. There is strong and robust evidence suggesting that the SARS epidemic and its associated countermeasure policies boosted local output by around 4% and industrial production by around 5%. The positive growth was mainly derived from the increase in investment and government activity, especially government expenditure. Besides that, lagged impacts were particularly pronounced to the economic system and lasted for longer even than the epidemic period in a biological sense. We attribute this to the relatively aggressive stance of policymakers in the face of the epidemic situation.

Effectiveness of an intervention to overcome influenza vaccine hesitancy in specialty clinic patients

BACKGROUND

Individuals on immunosuppressive therapies experience greater morbidity and mortality due to vaccine-preventable illnesses, but there are low rates of adherence to immunization guidelines within this population.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effectiveness of clinician-led education, patient-centered dialogue, and immediately available immunization on influenza vaccination uptake in patients taking immunosuppressive therapies.

METHOD

We used a controlled before-and-after quasi-experimental design to evaluate our quality improvement intervention occurring from September 2019 to March 2020, with follow-up through July 2020. The study included 2 dermatology practices wherein nursing staff offered influenza vaccination during patient rooming (standard care). Within each practice, clinicians either implemented the intervention or provided only standard care. Patients received the intervention or standard care depending on the clinician they visited. Patients seen at the 2 clinics during the intervention period were included in analyses if they were taking or newly prescribed immunosuppressant medication at the time of their visit. We examined influenza immunization status for 3 flu seasons: 2017-2018 (preintervention), 2018-2019 (preintervention), and 2019-2020 (intervention).

INTERVENTION

Immunosuppressed patients initially declining an influenza vaccine were provided dermatologist-led education on the benefits of immunization. Dermatologists explored and addressed individual patients' immunization concerns. Influenza vaccination was then offered immediately postdialogue.

RESULTS

Analyses included 201 dermatology patients who were prescribed or currently taking immunosuppressive medication (intervention group [72.6%], comparison group [27.4%]). During the intervention period, 91.1% of the intervention group received influenza vaccination compared to 56.4% of the comparison group. Vaccination trends from 2018-2019 (preintervention) to 2019-2020 (intervention) differed significantly between groups (χ2 = 22.92, P < .001), with greater improvement in the intervention group. In 2019-2020, influenza vaccination was more likely in the intervention group relative to the comparison group (odds ratio: 16.22, 95% confidence interval: 5.55-47.38). In the subset of patients that had never received an influenza vaccine, influenza immunization in 2019-2020 was more common in the intervention group (75.8%, 25/33) relative to the comparison group (13.3%, 2/15, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The intervention successfully addressed vaccine hesitancy and improved influenza immunization rates in an immunosuppressed population receiving care from a specialty clinic. Implementing a similar model across specialty clinics may improve vaccination rates for influenza, coronavirus disease 2019, and other vaccine-preventable illnesses in other populations.

COVID-19—What Price Do Children Pay? An Analysis of Economic and Social Policy Factors

Numerous studies have addressed the indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for children such as social isolation or increases in reported child maltreatment. Research on the economic and sociopolitical consequences is scarce as they can only be evaluated with a time lag. To improve our understanding of future, long-term developments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, we gathered findings from the still unexploited empirical literature on the aftermath of earlier pandemics, epidemics, and other infectious disease outbreaks. On top of this, we scrutinized research on past economic crises to interpret the link between changes in the economy and the health of children. Many of the side effects of battling the spread of the current pandemic, such as school closures, the stigma of infection, or conflicts about vaccines, are not novel and have already been documented in connection with previous infectious disease outbreaks. Results highlight that changes in the financial situation of families and socio-political challenges affect the situation and daily routine of children and youth in the long term. In consequence, the already pronounced socioeconomic inequalities will likely further increase. On top of this, due to reduced revenues, child protective services are likely to face challenges in the availability of human and financial resources.

Economic costs of severe seasonal influenza in Colombia, 2017–2019: A multi-center analysis

Objective

To estimate the economic burden of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) in lab-confirmed influenza patients from a low-income country setting such as Colombia.

Methods

A bottom-up costing analysis, from both third payer and social perspectives, was conducted. Direct costs of care were based on the review of 227 clinical records of lab-confirmed influenza inpatients in six facilities from three main Colombian cities. Resources were categorized as: length of stay (LOS), diagnostic and laboratory tests, medications, consultation, procedures, and supplies. A survey was designed to estimate out-of-pocket expenses (OOPE) and indirect costs covered by patients and their families. Cost per patient was estimated with the frequency of use and prices of activities, calculating median and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) with bootstrapping. Total costs are expressed as the sum of direct medical costs, OOPE and indirect costs in 2018 US dollars.

Results

The media direct medical cost per SARI lab-confirmed influenza patient was US$ 700 (95% CI US$ 552–809). Diagnostic and laboratory tests correspond to the highest cost per patient (37%). Median OOPE and indirect costs per patient was US$ 147 (95% CI US$ 94–202), with the highest costs for caregiver expenses (27%). Total costs were US$ 848 (95% CI US$ 646–1,011), OOPE and indirect costs corresponded to 17.4% of the total. The median of direct medical costs per patient was three times higher in elderly patients.

Conclusion

SARI influenza costs impose a high economic burden on patients and their families. The results highlight the importance of strengthening preventive strategies nationwide in the age groups with higher occurrence and incurred health costs.

A Review on Equine Influenza from a Human Influenza Perspective

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) have a main natural reservoir in wild birds. IAVs are highly contagious, continually evolve, and have a wide host range that includes various mammalian species including horses, pigs, and humans. Furthering our understanding of host-pathogen interactions and cross-species transmissions is therefore essential. This review focuses on what is known regarding equine influenza virus (EIV) virology, pathogenesis, immune responses, clinical aspects, epidemiology (including factors contributing to local, national, and international transmission), surveillance, and preventive measures such as vaccines. We compare EIV and human influenza viruses and discuss parallels that can be drawn between them. We highlight differences in evolutionary rates between EIV and human IAVs, their impact on antigenic drift, and vaccine strain updates. We also describe the approaches used for the control of equine influenza (EI), which originated from those used in the human field, including surveillance networks and virological analysis methods. Finally, as vaccination in both species remains the cornerstone of disease mitigation, vaccine technologies and vaccination strategies against influenza in horses and humans are compared and discussed.

Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.

Clinical and Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Plantation Workers: Preliminary Results from the Guatemala Agricultural Workers and Respiratory Illness Impact (AGRI) Study

We evaluated the clinical and socioeconomic burdens of respiratory disease in a cohort of Guatemalan banana plantation workers. All eligible workers were offered enrollment from June 15-December 30, 2020, and annually, then followed for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) through: 1) self-reporting to study nurses, 2) sentinel surveillance at health posts, and 3) absenteeism. Workers with ILI submitted nasopharyngeal swabs for influenza, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 testing, then completed surveys at days 0, 7, and 28. Through October 10, 2021, 1,833 workers developed 169 ILIs (12.0/100 person-years) and 43 (25.4%) of these ILIs were laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 (3.1/100 person-years). Workers with SARS-CoV-2-positive ILI reported more anosmia (p<0.01), dysgeusia (p<0.01), difficulty concentrating (p=0.01), and irritability (p=0.01), and greater clinical and well-being severity scores (Flu-iiQ) than test-negative ILIs; they also had greater absenteeism (p<0.01) and lost income (median US$127.1, p<0.01). These results support the prioritization of Guatemalan farm workers for COVID-19 vaccination.

Impact of Adding Oseltamivir to Usual Care on Quality-Adjusted Life-Years During Influenza-Like Illness

OBJECTIVES

The ALIC⁴E trial has shown that oseltamivir reduces recovery time while increasing the risk of nausea. This secondary analysis of the ALIC⁴E trial aimed to determine the gain in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with adding oseltamivir to usual primary care in patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI).

METHODS

Patients with ILI were recruited during the influenza season (2015-2018) in 15 European countries. Patients were assigned to usual care with or without oseltamivir through stratified randomization (age, severity, comorbidities, and symptom onset). Patients' health status was valued with the EQ-5D and visual analog scale (VAS) for up to 28 days. Average EQ-5D and VAS scores over time were estimated for both treatment groups using one-inflated beta regression in children (<13 years old) and adults (≥13 years old). QALY gain was calculated as the difference between the groups. Sensitivity analysis considered the value set to convert EQ-5D answers to summary scores and the follow-up period.

RESULTS

In adults, oseltamivir gained 0.0006 (95% confidence interval 0.0002-0.0010) QALYs, whereas no statistically significant gain was found in children (14-day follow-up, EQ-5D). QALY gains were statistically significant in patients aged ≥65 years, patients without relevant comorbidities, or patients experiencing symptoms for ≤48 hours. Using VAS and accounting for 28-day follow-up resulted in higher QALY gain.

CONCLUSIONS

QALY gain owing to oseltamivir is limited compared with other diseases, and its clinical meaningfulness remains to be determined. Further analysis is needed to evaluate whether QALY gain and its impact on ILI treatment cost render oseltamivir cost-effective.

Determinants of Hospitalization Costs among Moderate Cases of COVID-19

Objective: To estimate demographic predictors of medical expense in hospitalization of moderate COVID-19. Methods: From January to March 2020, a total of 39 patients were treated and recovered from COVID-19 in a tertiary medical center in East China. Detailed cost data were collected and we estimated the demographic predictors of both total hospital expense and daily hospital expense. Results: The mean medical expense for treating hospitalized moderate COVID-19 cases was $1177.81. Every additional year in the patient’s age corresponds to .9% more in total hospital expense (Coef. = 0.009, 95% CI 0.002-0.017, P < 0.01). The difference in daily medical expense between age groups was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Hospitalization cost was significantly elevated among the older patients, and the age effect in cost was mainly driven by the longer length of stay in the hospital. From a cost-saving perspective, the elderly population might deserve priority consideration when COVID-19 vaccination programs are implemented.

Anxiety and Insomnia Among Urban Slum Dwellers in Bangladesh: The Role of COVID-19 and Its Associated Factors

Background: Although mental health is an important part of health and wellbeing, very little is known about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of marginalized communities like urban slum dwellers. Our study estimated the prevalence of generalized anxiety disorder and insomnia among the residents of the informal settlements of Dhaka, Bangladesh, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A cross-sectional phone-based survey was conducted from October to November 2020 among adult residents of five informal settlements of Dhaka city randomly chosen from an existing Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (UHDSS) run by icddr,b. Data on Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) and Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) were collected. A multinomial logistic regression was performed to assess the associated factors of anxiety and insomnia. Results: Of the total 586 participants, the prevalence of mild to severe anxiety and insomnia were 53% and 43%, respectively. As per the multinomial regression analysis, participants with mild anxiety were significantly more likely to be older (>50 years) and afraid of COVID-19 infection. Likewise, participants with moderate/severe anxiety were significantly more likely to share less household facilities (e.g., toilet, kitchen, water) (OR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.31-3.79), to have difficulties in food availability (OR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.10-6.93), to be afraid of self (OR: 5.27; 95% CI: 2.82-9.88), and to worry about the family members (OR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.23-4.17) getting infected. Participants with mild insomnia were significantly more likely to share fewer household facilities and be afraid of being infected with COVID-19 infection. Moreover, participants with moderate/severe insomnia were significantly more likely to be female (OR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.02-3.56), to receive food aid (OR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.29-0.88), to be afraid of self (OR: 3.85; 95% CI: 1.81-8.19), and to worry about someone like friends or neighbors (OR: 2.45; 95% CI: 1.07-5.58) getting infected with COVID-19. Conclusions: We found elevated prevalence of both anxiety and insomnia among the urban poor of Bangladesh in the context of COVID-19. This indicates the importance of integrating mental health in the mitigation and recovery efforts related to similar crises for the urban poor in the future.

Unique features of a recombinant haemagglutinin influenza vaccine that influence vaccine performance

The influenza vaccine field has been constantly evolving to improve the speed, scalability, and flexibility of manufacturing, and to improve the breadth and longevity of the protective immune response across age groups, giving rise to an array of next generation vaccines in development. Among these, the recombinant influenza vaccine tetravalent (RIV4), using a baculovirus expression vector system to express recombinant haemagglutinin (rHA) in insect cells, is the only one to have reached the market and has been studied extensively. We describe how the unique structural features of rHA in RIV4 improve protective immune responses compared to conventional influenza vaccines made from propagated influenza virus. In addition to the sequence integrity, characteristic of recombinant proteins, unique post-translational processing of the rHA in insect cells instills favourable tertiary and quaternary structural features. The absence of protease-driven cleavage and addition of simple N-linked glycans help to preserve and expose certain conserved epitopes on HA molecules, which are likely responsible for the high levels of broadly cross-reactive and protective antibodies with rare specificities observed with RIV4. Furthermore, the presence of uniform compact HA oligomers and absence of egg proteins, viral RNA or process impurities, typically found in conventional vaccines, are expected to eliminate potential adverse reactions to these components in susceptible individuals with the use of RIV4. These distinct structural features and purity of the recombinant HA vaccine thus provide a number of benefits in vaccine performance which can be extended to other viral targets, such as for COVID-19.

Unstandard Deviation: The Untapped Value of Positive Deviance for Reducing Inequalities

Behavioral science is increasingly used in public policy to understand and address various manifestations of inequalities. Yet evidence from effective population-level interventions is limited. One framework, known as positive deviance, emphasizes individuals from disadvantaged circumstances who have significantly better outcomes than are typical for their group. Studying their behaviors and outcomes helps to understand what might explain their overall success. These insights could also be used to help others from these circumstances experience positive outcomes. Because positive deviance has been markedly understudied, we present a framework for doing so specifically within behavioral science for public policies aimed at reducing inequalities. Using examples from real-world and experimental insights on choices and outcomes of positive deviants, we encourage further study of their choices and trajectories over time to produce valuable insights. We propose that leveraging those findings would inform public policy by introducing interventions that are more ecologically sound and population-relevant and thus have a better chance at benefiting those who start off under adverse circumstances.

Lessons learned from the A (H1N1) influenza pandemic

Influenza in pregnancy is a common condition that is associated with an increased risk of hospital admission. Women with comorbidities are at a greater risk of severe outcomes. There are substantial gaps in our knowledge of the impact of severe influenza on perinatal outcomes, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, but preterm birth, fetal death, infant respiratory infection and hospital admission may be increased. Thus, influenza is a major burden on health services. Immunisation is cost-effective, safe and effective in preventing influenza in pregnant women and their infants but policies and uptake vary worldwide. Operational challenges and concern over the safety, efficacy and necessity of immunisation are common, and there is a lack of evidence on how to overcome these barriers. This review identifies learning points that are relevant to the current coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic through describing the epidemiology and impact of seasonal and A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza in pregnancy, alongside the effectiveness and use of immunisation.

Evaluating Well-being of Individuals With Chronic Visual Conditions Requiring Regular Eyecare During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Cross-Sectional Study

OBJECTIVES

To assess health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and its predictors among individuals with chronic vision conditions during COVID-19 lockdown.

METHODS

A cross-sectional, survey-based study targeted Jordanian adults with a variety of chronic vision conditions requiring regular ophthalmic follow-up. Outcome measures included HRQoL measured by the 12-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12), mental health symptoms measured by the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale, and vision ability measured by the National Eye Institute Visual Functioning Questionnaire (VFQ-25) General Vision and Role Limitation subscales. Data were analyzed descriptively and using a multiple variable linear regression model to identify HRQoL predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 203 participants with a mean age of 52.09 (±15.41) years participated, and SF-12 mean scores were 58.15 for the physical component and 57.48 for the mental component. The level of HRQoL was significantly associated with VFQ-25 Role Limitation subscale, diabetes, the need of ophthalmic follow-up, and stress. The regression model explained 47.1% of the variance in HRQoL (r2=0.471, F=35.57, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Jordanian individuals with chronic vision conditions demonstrated low levels of HRQoL during COVID-19 lockdown. Participants also showed high levels of mental health symptoms and reported low accessibility to ophthalmic care. Access to nonurgent ophthalmic care in individuals with chronic vision diseases should be carefully planned in future pandemics.

Burden of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Hospitalizations, Vietnam, 2014-2016

Influenza burden estimates are essential to informing prevention and control policies. To complement recent influenza vaccine production capacity in Vietnam, we used acute respiratory infection (ARI) hospitalization data, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance data, and provincial population data from 4 provinces representing Vietnam’s major regions during 2014–2016 to calculate provincial and national influenza-associated ARI and SARI hospitalization rates. We determined the proportion of ARI admissions meeting the World Health Organization SARI case definition through medical record review. The mean influenza-associated hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were 218 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 197–238) for ARI and 134 (95% UI 119–149) for SARI. Influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were highest among children <5 years of age (1,123; 95% UI 946–1,301) and adults >65 years of age (207; 95% UI 186–227), underscoring the need for prevention and control measures, such as vaccination, in these at-risk populations.

A Review of Research on Tourism Industry, Economic Crisis and Mitigation Process of the Loss: Analysis on Pre, During and Post Pandemic Situation

Throughout time, the global tourism industry and economy have been significantly affected by disasters and crises. At present, COVID-19 represents one of these disasters as it has been causing a serious economic downturn with huge implications in tourism. In this review paper, we have analysed more than 100 papers regarding the effect and consequences of a pandemic on tourism and related industries, the economic situation in countries and areas, and mitigation of the loss incurred due to pandemic situations. The article (1) is based on past research on tourism and economy, (2) examines the effects of a pandemic on listed sectors and mitigation processes, and (3) suggests future research and approaches to help progress the field. We have gathered and categorised the literature reviews into several parts. In addition, we have listed the name of authors, journal names, books, websites, and relevant data.

The Economic Burden of Influenza-Like Illness among Children, Chronic Disease Patients, and the Elderly in China: A National Cross-Sectional Survey

Background: The disease burden of seasonal influenza is substantial in China, while there is still a lack of nationwide economic burden estimates. This study aims to examine influenza-like illness (ILI) prevalence, healthcare-seeking behaviors, economic impact of ILI, and its influencing factors among three priority groups during the 2018–19 influenza season. Methods: From August to October 2019, 6668 children’s caregivers, 1735 chronic disease patients, and 3849 elderly people were recruited from 10 provinces in China to participate in an on-site survey. The economic burden of ILI consisted of direct (medical or non-medical) and indirect burdens, and a two-part model was adopted to predict the influencing factors of total economic burden. Results: There were 45.73% children, 16.77% chronic disease patients, and 12.70% elderly people reporting ILI, and most participants chose outpatient service or over-the-counter (OTC) medication after ILI. The average economic burden was CNY 1647 (USD 237.2) for children, CNY 951 (USD 136.9) for chronic disease patients, and CNY 1796 (USD 258.6) for the elderly. Two-part regression showed that age, gender, whether the only child in the family, region, and household income were important predictors of ILI economic burden among children, while age, region, place of residence, basic health insurance, and household income were significant predictors of ILI economic burden among chronic disease patients and the elderly. Conclusions: A large economic burden of ILI was highlighted, especially among the elderly with less income and larger medical burdens, as well as children, with higher prevalence and higher self-payment ratio. It is important to adopt targeted interventions for high-risk groups, and this study can help national-level decision-making on the introduction of influenza vaccination as a public health project.

Barriers and activities to implementing or expanding influenza vaccination programs in low- and middle-income countries: A global survey

INTRODUCTION

Despite considerable global burden of influenza, few low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have national influenza vaccination programs. This report provides a systematic assessment of barriers to and activities that support initiating or expanding influenza vaccination programs from the perspective of in-country public health officials.

METHODS

Public health officials in LMICs were sent a web-based survey to provide information on barriers and activities to initiating, expanding, or maintaining national influenza vaccination programs. The survey primarily included Likert-scale questions asking respondents to rank barriers and activities in five categories.

RESULTS

Of 109 eligible countries, 62% participated. Barriers to influenza vaccination programs included lack of data on cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination programs (87%) and on influenza disease burden (84%), competing health priorities (80%), lack of public perceived risk from influenza (79%), need for better risk communication tools (77%), lack of financial support for influenza vaccine programs (75%), a requirement to use only WHO-prequalified vaccines (62%), and young children require two vaccine doses (60%). Activities for advancing influenza vaccination programs included educating healthcare workers (97%) and decision-makers (91%) on the benefits of influenza vaccination, better estimates of influenza disease burden (91%) and cost of influenza vaccination programs (89%), simplifying vaccine introduction by focusing on selected high-risk groups (82%), developing tools to prioritize target populations (80%), improving availability of influenza diagnostic testing (79%), and developing collaborations with neighboring countries for vaccine procurement (74%) and regulatory approval (73%). Responses varied by country region and income status.

CONCLUSIONS

Local governments and key international stakeholders can use the results of this survey to improve influenza vaccination programs in LMICs, which is a critical component of global pandemic preparedness for influenza and other pathogens such as coronaviruses. Additionally, strategies to improve global influenza vaccination coverage should be tailored to country income level and geographic location.

Seasonal Influenza Prevention and Control Progress in Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Global Influenza Strategy and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Each year in Latin America and the Caribbean, seasonal influenza is associated with an estimated 36,500 respiratory deaths and 400,000 hospitalizations. Since the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, the Region has made significant advances in the prevention and control of seasonal influenza, including improved surveillance systems, burden estimates, and vaccination of at-risk groups. The Global Influenza Strategy 2019–2030 provides a framework to strengthen these advances. Against the backdrop of this new framework, the University of Colorado convened in October 2020 its Immunization Advisory Group of Experts to review and discuss current surveillance, prevention, and control strategies for seasonal influenza in Latin America and the Caribbean, also in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This review identified five areas for action and made recommendations specific to each area. The Region should continue its efforts to strengthen surveillance and impact evaluations. Existing data on disease burden, seasonality patterns, and vaccination effectiveness should be used to inform decision-making at the country level as well as advocacy efforts for programmatic resources. Regional and country strategic plans should be prepared and include specific targets for 2030. Existing investments in influenza prevention and control, including for immunization programs, should be optimized. Finally, regional partnerships, such as the regional networks for syndromic surveillance and vaccine effectiveness evaluation (SARInet and REVELAC-i), should continue to play a critical role in continuous learning and standardization by sharing experiences and best practices among countries.

Global Seasonal Influenza Mortality Estimates: A Comparison of 3 Different Approaches

Prior to updating global influenza-associated mortality estimates, the World Health Organization convened a consultation in July 2017 to understand differences in methodology and implications for results of 3 influenza mortality projects from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Netherlands Institute for Health Service Research's Global Pandemic Mortality Project II (GLaMOR), and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The expert panel reviewed estimates and discussed differences in data sources, analysis, and modeling assumptions. We performed a comparison analysis of the estimates. Influenza-associated respiratory death counts were comparable between CDC and GLaMOR; the IHME estimate was considerably lower. The greatest country-specific influenza-associated fold differences in mortality rate between CDC and IHME estimates and between GLaMOR and IHME estimates were among countries in Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean region. The data envelope used for the calculation was one of the major differences (CDC and GLaMOR: all respiratory deaths; IHME: lower-respiratory infection deaths). With the assumption that there is only one cause of death for each death, IHME estimates a fraction of the full influenza-associated respiratory mortality that is measured by the other 2 groups. Wide variability of parameters was observed. Continued coordination between groups could assist with better understanding of methodological differences and new approaches to estimating influenza deaths globally.

Seasonal influenza vaccination policies in the 194 WHO Member States: The evolution of global influenza pandemic preparedness and the challenge of sustaining equitable vaccine access

Introduction

As of 2018, 118 of 194 WHO Member States reported the presence of an influenza vaccination policy. Although influenza vaccination policies do not guarantee equitable access or ensure vaccination coverage, they are critical to establishing a coordinated influenza vaccination program, which can reduce morbidity and mortality associated with yearly influenza, especially in high-risk groups. Established programs can also provide a good foundation for pandemic preparedness and response.

Methods

We utilized EXCEL and STATA to evaluate changes to national seasonal influenza vaccination policies reported on the WHO/UNICEF Joint Reporting Forms on Immunization (JRF) in 2014 and 2018. To characterize countries with or without policies, we incorporated external data on World Bank income groupings, WHO regions, and immunization system strength (using 3 proxy indicators).

Results

From 2014 to 2018 there was a small net increase in national seasonal influenza vaccination policies from 114 (59%) to 118 (61%). There was an increase in policies targeting high-risk groups from 34 in 2014 (34 /114 policies, 29%) to 56 (56/118 policies, 47%) in 2018. Policies were consistently more frequent in high-income countries, in WHO Regions of the Americas (89% of countries) and Europe (89%), and in countries satisfying all three immunization system strength indicators. Low and low-middle income countries, representing 40% of the worlds' population, accounted for 52/61 (85%) of countries with no evidence of a policy in either year.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate that national influenza vaccination policies vary significantly by region, income, and immunization system strength, and are less common in lower-income countries. Barriers to establishing and maintaining policies should be further examined as part of international efforts to expand influenza vaccination policies globally. Next generation influenza vaccine development should work to address barriers to influenza vaccination policy adoption, such as cost, logistics for adult vaccination, country priorities, need for yearly vaccination, and variations in seasonality.

Completeness of open access FluNet influenza surveillance data for Pan-America in 2005-2019

For several decades, the World Health Organization has collected, maintained, and distributed invaluable country-specific disease surveillance data that allow experts to develop new analytical tools for disease tracking and forecasting. To capture the extent of available data within these sources, we proposed a completeness metric based on the effective time series length. Using FluNet records for 29 Pan-American countries from 2005 to 2019, we explored whether completeness was associated with health expenditure indicators adjusting for surveillance system heterogeneity. We observed steady improvements in completeness by 4.2–6.3% annually, especially after the A(H1N1)-2009 pandemic, when 24 countries reached > 95% completeness. Doubling in decadal health expenditure per capita was associated with ~ 7% increase in overall completeness. The proposed metric could navigate experts in assessing open access data quality and quantity for conducting credible statistical analyses, estimating disease trends, and developing outbreak forecasting systems.