Health security capacities in the context of COVID-19 outbreak: an analysis of International Health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries

Integrating multiplex PCR in fever clinics for acute respiratory pathogen-specific diagnosis

The epidemiological patterns of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) have experienced substantial changes due to the influence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with a particular focus on acute respiratory infections (ARIs). Challenges in early diagnosis, inadequate triage strategies, and the inappropriate use of antimicrobials or antivirals have compounded the difficulties in accurately diagnosing and managing ARIs in the post-pandemic context. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of fever clinics equipped with nucleic acid testing capabilities in the precise triage of ARIs. In a cohort of 604 individuals presenting with symptoms of ARIs, we utilized real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) technology available in the fever clinic to perform nucleic acid testing for SARS-CoV-2, influenza A virus (Flu A), influenza B virus (Flu B), respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, human rhinovirus, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae. Subsequently, statistical methods were employed to analyze the distribution and types of ARIs associated with these pathogens. In fever clinics, most patients presenting with respiratory pathogen infections were diagnosed with non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory pathogens, with a higher incidence noted among pediatric patients compared to adults. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 primarily affected the adult population and was linked to more severe clinical outcomes. Consequently, the swift triage of patients exhibiting ARI symptoms in a fever clinic equipped with nucleic acid testing enables the rapid identification and precise treatment of pathogens. This approach alleviates patient discomfort and enhances the efficiency of healthcare resource utilization.

Sociocultural practices and COVID-19 prevention: A qualitative study of Mtwara, Shinyanga, and Arusha, Tanzania

Background

The World Health Organization pronounced COVID-19 as a public health emergency in March 2020. Studies conducted in Tanzania and beyond indicate that poor literacy, limited understanding of the disease, challenging living conditions, increasing poverty, and unemployment are key determinants, while the influence of sociocultural factors has received less attention. This study reinforces the position of sociocultural practices in determining how people practiced the preventive measures against COVID-19 pandemic.

Aim

This qualitative study explores the influence of sociocultural practices in the implementation of COVID-19 preventive measures in Arusha, Mtwara and Shinyanga regions of Tanzania.

Setting

This study was conducted in Tanzania, covering diverse sociocultural contexts of Mtwara, Arusha and Shinyanga regions.

Methods

Focus group discussions, key informant interviews and rapid ethnographic field observations were used to obtain more detailed information from study participants.

Results

Findings suggest that sociocultural practices shaped how individuals and communities responded to COVID-19 preventive measures, influencing acceptance, hesitation, resistance, or modification of public health guidelines, including vaccine uptake. In Mtwara, Arusha, and Shinyanga, people embraced their sociocultural practices to navigate the new disease, whose origins were debated or unknown. Their responses to the pandemic were mediated by sociocultural practices and other factors.

Conclusion

Sociocultural practices shaped the acceptance, adaptation, or resistance to COVID-19 measures in Tanzania, emphasising the need for community-integrated public health strategies.

Contribution

This study underscores the impact of sociocultural factors on public health, offering insights for socioculturally tailored pandemic interventions.

Why do International Health Regulations self-assessment capacities (SPAR) scores not predict COVID-19 control outcomes? - analysis of the relationship between SPAR scores and COVID-19 resilience scores in 2021

INTRODUCTION

This study analyses the relationship between SPAR and the COVID-19 resilience score (CRS) in 80 countries in 2021 to achieve its objective.

METHODS

We adopted the concept of Bloomberg's COVID Resilience Ranking to form the CRS, which encompasses three indicators: Reopening Status, COVID Status, and Quality of Life. The average scores of 13 SPAR capacities focused on infectious disease control in 2021 were calculated. Paired t-tests were applied to evaluate the significance of monthly changes in countries' CRSs. Then, we conducted univariate and multivariate linear regressions to examine the relationship between the SPAR and CRS scores and each CRS indicator.

RESULTS

The CRS in 80 countries fluctuated throughout 2021. Linear regression revealed a significant relationship between countries' SPAR scores and CRS (B = 0.03, 95% CI = 0.001, 0.06). Among the CRS indicators, the SPAR was significantly associated with only the Quality of Life indicator (B = 0.01, 95% CI = 0.002, 1.52) and not the Reopening Status and COVID Status indicators. An increase in SPAR score, along with an increase in Governmental Effectiveness, was associated with increased CRS (Adjusted R2 = 0.52, p < 0.05). Moreover, an increase in countries' SPAR scores was significantly linked to an improvement in people's Quality of Life (Adjusted R2 = 0.37, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The significant relationship between the SPAR and COVID Resilience Scores, particularly the Quality of Life indicator indicates that the lack of accuracy in the ability of the SPAR score to predict COVID-19 control outcomes is attributed to the reliance of the measurement solely on the disease perspective and the limited inclusion of social aspects in the SPAR capacity assessments.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

Not Applicable.

Normative convergence between global health security and universal health coverage: a qualitative analysis of international health negotiations in the wake of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO Thirteenth General Programme of Work underscored the importance of mitigating health emergencies while ensuring accessible and affordable health services. Central to these efforts are global health security (GHS) and universal health coverage (UHC), which act both as standalone goals and as cross-cutting approaches to health policy and practice. While GHS and UHC each operate as distinct norms, global health stakeholders increasingly advocate for advancing them synergistically to address interconnected health challenges amid limited resources. However, the current extent of alignment between GHS and UHC remains unclear, especially post-COVID-19. This qualitative study assesses normative convergence between GHS and UHC by tracing their development through iterative draft texts across two major international health negotiations - specifically examining how UHC norms are expressed in the WHO Pandemic Agreement, and how GHS norms are expressed in the 2023 UNGA Political Declaration on Universal Health Coverage.

RESULTS

UHC was promoted in the WHO Pandemic Agreement through three closely-associated discourse themes (rights-based narratives, equity frames, focus on social determinants of health) and three closely-associated core functions (accessible and affordable health commodities, prioritizing vulnerable populations, primary health care approach). Meanwhile, GHS was reciprocally promoted in the 2023 UHC Political Declaration through three related discourse themes (existential threat narratives, resilience frames, focus on infectious diseases) and three related core functions (outbreak preparedness, health emergency response, One Health approach).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic created a policy window uniquely-positioned to accelerate normative convergence between GHS and UHC. Both international agreements advanced convergence by demonstrating increased complementarity and interdependency between the two norms through the co-promotion of their underlying features. However, negotiators agreed to political and operational trade-offs which made it difficult to sustain progress. This study provides a nuanced account of how global health norms evolve through integration in complex policy environments - finding that normative convergence may not always be explicit, but rather implicit through incremental linkages in their underlying discourse and core functions. This research contributes to pragmatic efforts by global health actors seeking consensus amidst an era of polycrisis, and highlights the importance of navigating geopolitics and overcoming path dependencies. It also deepens scholarly understanding on how 'hybrid norms' develop through the dynamic process of normative convergence via diplomacy.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental coping and emergency ability of public health emergency in COVID-19 department healthcare workers in ICU nurses of Beijing in China

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought various opportunities and challenges to critical care nurses, whose emergency abilities in caring for critically ill patients are related to their safety, clinical effectiveness, and improved prognosis. Currently, there is a lack of research on the actual situation and influencing factors of ICU nurses' emergency ability during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although empirical observations from different departments can provide valuable basis for the health system to formulate preventive measures, efficient training programs and future public emergencies.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional descriptive study.

METHODS

Data were collected from 486 subjects through electronic surveys from November 8 to 15, 2022, in seven general public hospitals (all tertiary A hospitals) in Beijing, China.

RESULTS

The emergency ability of ICU nurses hover at the intermediate level (145.42 ± 23.29). The variables of work experience, participated in PHE rescue activities, participated in PHE education, cumulative rescue more than 10 times and positive coping were associated with the emergency ability of ICU nurses.

CONCLUSION

Despite the COVID-19 restrictions, the emergency ability of ICU nurses is acceptable, at a medium level. The ICU nurse of seniority, participated in PHE rescue activities, participated in PHE education, cumulative rescue more than 10 times had excellent emergency ability; The importance of positive coping style was also evident, which means that intervention in psychological is seen as necessary.

A Narrative Review on the Pandemic Zoonotic RNA Virus Infections Occurred During the Last 25 Years

BACKGROUND

Pandemic zoonotic RNA virus infections have continued to threaten humans and animals worldwide. The objective of this review was to highlight the epidemiology and socioeconomic impacts of pandemic zoonotic RNA virus infections that occurred between 1997 and 2021.

METHODS

Literature search was done from Web of Science, PubMed, Google Scholar and Scopus databases, cumulative case fatalities of individual viral infection calculated, and geographic coverage of the pandemics were shown by maps.

RESULTS

Seven major pandemic zoonotic RNA virus infections occurred from 1997 to 2021 and were presented in three groups: The first group consists of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI-H5N1) and swine-origin influenza (H1N1) viruses with cumulative fatality rates of 53.5% and 0.5% in humans, respectively. Moreover, HPAI-H5N1 infection caused 90-100% death in poultry and economic losses of >$10 billion worldwide. Similarly, H1N1 caused a serious infection in swine and economic losses of 0.5-1.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the affected countries. The second group consists of severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infection (SARS-CoV), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with case fatalities of 9.6%, 34.3% and 2.0%, respectively in humans; but this group only caused mild infections in animals. The third group consists of Ebola and Zika virus infections with case fatalities of 39.5% and 0.02%, respectively in humans but causing only mild infections in animals.

CONCLUSION

Similar infections are expected in the near future, and hence strict implementation of conventional biosecurity-based measures and development of efficacious vaccines would help minimize the impacts of the next pandemic infection.

Epidemic preparedness and response capacity against infectious disease outbreaks in 186 countries, 2018-2022

OBJECTIVES

Disruptive public health risks and events, including infectious disease outbreaks, are inevitable, but their effects can be mitigated by investing in prevention and preparedness. We assessed the epidemic preparedness and response capacities of health systems in 186 countries from 2018 to 2022.

METHODS

We utilized data from the International Health Regulations (IHR) State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting (SPAR) submissions to assess health systems' IHR capacities to (1) prevent, (2) detect, (3) respond, (4) enable resources and coordinate, and (5) ensure operational readiness from 2018 to 2022. We categorized the IHR capacities into five levels, with level 1 denoting the lowest level of national capacity and level 5 the highest. We calculated each index's capacity level as the arithmetic mean of its related indicators and analyzed changes over time using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test.

RESULTS

SPAR reporting marginally improved from 92.9% (182 of 196 countries) in 2018 to 94.9% (186 of 196 countries) in 2022, with considerable improvement in all five capacity domains over this period: prevention (58.4 in 2018 to 66.5 in 2022), detection (74.7 to 78.3), response (56.5 to 67.8), enabling resources and coordination (63.0 to 68.3), and ensuring operational readiness (62.8 to 69.9). From the 2022 submissions, 116 (62%) countries reported functional (Level 4 or 5) prevention capacity, 162 (87%) had functional detection capacity, 118 (63%) had functional response capacity, 121 (65%) had functional enabling resources and coordination capacity, and 133 (72%) had functional operational readiness against public health events. Across all the indexes, the WHO African Region reported the fewest countries with functional capacity in these domains.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an overall increase in functional capacity across all five domains at both global and regional levels; and a high percentage of countries achieved functional capacity across all domains in 2022. However, a significant number of countries, particularly in the Global South, have yet to achieve functional competence in these capacities, leaving the world vulnerable to the persistent risk of epidemics and infectious biohazards. Strengthening IHR competencies through local, national, and global engagements must be urgently prioritized to achieve global health security against infectious diseases.

Evaluation of a cross-border field simulation exercise on the response to outbreaks of infectious diseases in Namanga, Kenya and Tanzania

Travel and trade, whilst playing a critical role in economic development, contribute to the spread of infectious diseases, including novel or emerging diseases, which can threaten health security locally, regionally and globally. The World Health Organization mandates preparedness through field simulation exercises to address infectious disease outbreaks, as highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study assessed the impact of the 2019 Namanga field simulation exercise, conducted in the border town shared by Kenya and Tanzania, on improving cross-border outbreak preparedness and response. It focused on participants' knowledge, skills acquisition and real-world application. An anonymous online survey was administered to participants 37 months post-field simulation exercise. In addition, key informant interviews and a focus group discussion with the Joint Border Management Committee in Namanga were conducted. The June 2019 field simulation exercise enhanced the skills, knowledge, and confidence of participants, including members of the border community, in preparing for and responding to outbreaks including COVID-19. The skills and knowledge gained were deemed valuable, relevant, and effective for use in future response activities. The analysis is limited by potential response bias, as only participants with positive experiences of the field simulation exercise may have responded more favourably. Addressing the limitations of design and implementation of the field simulation exercise and the challenges of cross-border response identified in this study are critical to optimising future responses.

Defining and identifying the critical elements of operational readiness for public health emergency events: a rapid scoping review

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 showed that countries must strengthen their operational readiness (OPR) capabilities to respond to an imminent pandemic threat rapidly and proactively. We conducted a rapid scoping evidence review to understand the definition and critical elements of OPR against five core sub-systems of a new framework to strengthen the global architecture for Health Emergency Preparedness Response and Resilience (HEPR).

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science, targeted repositories, websites, and grey literature databases for publications between 1 January 2010 and 29 September 2021 in English, German, French or Afrikaans. Included sources were of any study design, reporting OPR, defined as immediate actions taken in the presence of an imminent threat, from groups who led or responded to a specified health emergency. We used prespecified and tested methods to screen and select sources, extract data, assess credibility and analyse results against the HEPR framework.

RESULTS

Of 7005 sources reviewed, 79 met the eligibility criteria, including 54 peer-reviewed publications. The majority were descriptive reports (28%) and qualitative analyses (30%) from early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Definitions of OPR varied while nine articles explicitly used the term 'readiness', others classified OPR as part of preparedness or response. Applying our working OPR definition across all sources, we identified OPR actions within all five HEPR subsystems. These included resource prepositioning for early detection, data sharing, tailored communication and interventions, augmented staffing, timely supply procurement, availability and strategic dissemination of medical countermeasures, leadership, comprehensive risk assessment and resource allocation supported by relevant legislation. We identified gaps related to OPR for research and technology-enabled manufacturing platforms.

CONCLUSIONS

OPR is in an early stage of adoption. Establishing a consistent and explicit framework for OPRs within the context of existing global legal and policy frameworks can foster coherence and guide evidence-based policy and practice improvements in health emergency management.

COVID-19 burden in Iran: disability-adjusted life years analysis from hospital data, 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

The burden of disease based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is one of the internationally accepted metrics for assessing the impact of a disease or injury on population health. This study aimed to provide evidence of the burden of COVID-19 on health in Iran based on hospital-level data from the Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO), which covers almost half of the country's population.

METHODS

The data of all IHIO enrollees who were referred to hospitals across the country from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) to December 30, 2021, with assigned diagnosis codes of COVID-19, were extracted from the hospital information processing system. The DALYs due to COVID-19 were estimated using the standard approach of the World Health Organization and the European Burden of Disease Network guideline.

RESULTS

In the years 2020 and 2021, among a population of about 42 million people, 1,040,367 individuals were admitted to the hospital due to COVID-19 infection, of whom 73% were hospitalized (760,963 patients). The total estimated DALYs for these two years were 665,823 and 928,393, respectively (1,603 and 2,234 per 100,000 population). 99.7% of DALYs were attributed to years of life lost due to premature death (YLLs). The share of the disease burden in the age groups of under 20 years, 20-49 years, 50-80 years, and over 80 years was 6.6%, 26.4%, 58.4%, and 8.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the hospital-level data estimates, COVID-19 has had a significant burden on health in Iran. COVID-19 was identified as the fifth leading cause of disease burden in Iran during the study period, ranking after cardiovascular diseases, psychological disorders, neoplasms, and musculoskeletal disorders. Additionally, COVID-19 was the third major cause of death, following cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Policymaking and the implementation of comprehensive programs to enhance the response of the health system and society to outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases are of utmost importance.

Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 lockdown effect to survive in the US counties using ANN

This study aims to quantify the effectiveness of lockdown as a non-pharmacological solution for managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily COVID-19 death counts were collected for four states: California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina. The effectiveness of the lockdown was studied and the number of people saved during 7 days was evaluated. Five neural network models (MLP, FFNN, CFNN, ENN, and NARX) were implemented, and the results indicate that FFNN is the best prediction model. Based on this model, the total number of survivors over a 7-day period is 211, 270, 989, and 60 in California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina, respectively. The coefficients and weights of the FFNN for each state differ due to various factors, including socio-demographic conditions and the behavior of citizens towards lockdown laws. New Jersey and South Carolina have the most lockdowns and the least.

Impact of recurrent COVID-19 disease waves on acute myocardial infarction epidemics: results from a regional network

AIMS

To assess the impact of COVID-19 related public containment measures during recurrent COVID-19 waves on hospital admission rate for acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Clinical characteristics, reperfusion therapy modalities, COVID-19 status and in-hospital mortality of consecutive AMI patients who were admitted in a regional AMI network were recorded during one year starting in March 2020 and were compared with the year before. The COVID-19 study period encompassed two waves: the first in March-May 2020 and the second in October-December 2020. A total of 1349 AMI patients were hospitalised of which 725 during the pre-COVID period and 624 during the COVID period (incidence rate ratio of 1.16, p = 0,006). The impact was predominantly present in the first wave (32% reduction: n = 204 vs 152) and evanished during the second wave (3% increase (152 vs 156). A similar pattern was observed for ACS with cardiac arrest with a 92% reduction (n = 36 vs 3) during the first wave and no change during the second wave (18 vs 18). After correction for temperature and air quality, COVID-19 epidemic remained associated with a decrease of AMI hospitalisation (p = 0.046). Reperfusion strategy for AMI patients, were comparable between both study periods. The in-hospital mortality between the two periods was comparable (2.6% versus 1.9%), but COVID-19 positive ACS patients (n = 7) had a high mortality rate (14%).

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 related public containment measures resulted during the first wave in a 32% reduction of AMI hospitalisation, but this impact was not visible anymore during the second wave.

Quality improvement collaborative for improving patient care delivery in Argentine public health sector intensive care units

BACKGROUND

The demand for healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic was excessive for less-resourced settings, with intensive care units (ICUs) taking the heaviest toll.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to achieve adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) use in 90% of patient encounters, to reach 90% compliance with objectives of patient flow (OPF) and to provide emotional support tools to 90% of healthcare workers (HCWs).

METHODS

We conducted a quasi-experimental study with an interrupted time-series design in 14 ICUs in Argentina. We randomly selected adult critically ill patients admitted from July 2020 to July 2021 and active HCWs in the same period. We implemented a quality improvement collaborative (QIC) with a baseline phase (BP) and an intervention phase (IP). The QIC included learning sessions, periods of action and improvement cycles (plan-do-study-act) virtually coached by experts via platform web-based activities. The main study outcomes encompassed the following elements: proper utilisation of PPE, compliance with nine specific OPF using daily goal sheets through direct observations and utilisation of a web-based tool for tracking emotional well-being among HCWs.

RESULTS

We collected 7341 observations of PPE use (977 in BP and 6364 in IP) with an improvement in adequate use from 58.4% to 71.9% (RR 1.2, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.29, p<0.001). We observed 7428 patient encounters to evaluate compliance with 9 OPF (879 in BP and 6549 in IP) with an improvement in compliance from 53.9% to 67% (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.32, p<0.001). The results showed that HCWs did not use the support tool for self-mental health evaluation as much as expected.

CONCLUSION

A QIC was effective in improving healthcare processes and adequate PPE use, even in the context of a pandemic, indicating the possibility of expanding QIC networks nationwide to improve overall healthcare delivery. The limited reception of emotional support tools requires further analyses.

Follow the money: a global analysis of funding dynamics for global health security

Global financing for health security was dramatically impacted by COVID-19. Here, we provide an empirical analysis of how that funding changed. Using data from Global Health Security (GHS) Tracking (tracking.ghscosting.org), we analyzed disbursements of direct financial assistance for GHS from 2016 to 2022 to compare pre-pandemic funding (2016-2019) to post-pandemic funding (2020-2022) for preparedness and response during each of the seven World Health Organization-declared public health emergencies of international concern (PHEICs) from 2009 to 2022. Over $165B was disbursed for capacity-building and preparedness activities between January 2016 and December 2022, and over $76B was provided for PHEIC response. Preparedness funding remained evenly distributed since 2016 across regions, with the African region receiving about 70% of total preparedness funding. Indeed, how capacity-building and preparedness funding is distributed has changed remarkably little since 2016, despite unprecedented changes to the funding environment-including markedly increased spending-in response to COVID-19. This suggests we now have a unique opportunity to restructure how funds are tracked for accountability and assessing return on investment moving forward.

Utilizing disease transmission and response capacities to optimize covid-19 control in Malaysia

OBJECTIVES

Public Health Social Measures (PHSM) such as movement restriction movement needed to be adjusted accordingly during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure low disease transmission alongside adequate health system capacities based on the COVID-19 situational matrix proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper aims to develop a mechanism to determine the COVID-19 situational matrix to adjust movement restriction intensity for the control of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

METHODS

Several epidemiological indicators were selected based on the WHO PHSM interim guidance report and validated individually and in several combinations to estimate the community transmission level (CT) and health system response capacity (RC) variables. Correlation analysis between CT and RC with COVID-19 cases was performed to determine the most appropriate CT and RC variables. Subsequently, the CT and RC variables were combined to form a composite COVID-19 situational matrix (SL). The SL matrix was validated using correlation analysis with COVID-19 case trends. Subsequently, an automated web-based system that generated daily CT, RC, and SL was developed.

RESULTS

CT and RC variables were estimated using case incidence and hospitalization rate; Hospital bed capacity and COVID-19 ICU occupancy respectively. The estimated CT and RC were strongly correlated [ρ = 0.806 (95% CI 0.752, 0.848); and ρ = 0.814 (95% CI 0.778, 0.839), p < 0.001] with the COVID-19 cases. The estimated SL was strongly correlated with COVID-19 cases (ρ = 0.845, p < 0.001) and responded well to the various COVID-19 case trends during the pandemic. SL changes occurred earlier during the increase of cases but slower during the decrease, indicating a conservative response. The automated web-based system developed produced daily real-time CT, RC, and SL for the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

The indicators selected and combinations formed were able to generate validated daily CT and RC levels for Malaysia. Subsequently, the CT and RC levels were able to provide accurate and sensitive information for the estimation of SL which provided valuable evidence on the progression of the pandemic and movement restriction adjustment for the control of Malaysia.

Evolutionary game analysis of multiple subjects in the management of major public health emergencies

The frequent occurrence of major public health emergencies (MPHEs) significantly challenges national security, economic stability, social operation and the safety of people's lives and property worldwide. Consequently, enhancing the emergency management of MPHEs is critically urgent. This paper constructs a game model involving local government, social organisations, and the public for MPHE management, exploring strategy combinations and influencing factors across various scenarios. Several results were obtained. (1) Local government, social organisations, and the public each have positive and negative strategy choices based on cost-benefit analysis, leading to eight different strategy combinations. Furthermore, all three take positive strategies as the optimal way to achieve the game equilibrium. (2) The transformation of strategy combinations is primarily influenced by the cost-benefit gap and the strategic decisions of local government. (3) Altering a subject's initial strategy value doesn't change its final choice but impacts the time to achieve a stable strategy equilibrium. The severity of local government punishments on social organisations influences their strategic choices and the time to optimal strategy, whereas rewards to the public or social organisations only affect the time to achieve this strategy. The findings of this study can not only help improve the collaborative governance system of MPHEs but also provide scientific guidance on how governments can manage MPHEs.

Global Rate of Willingness to Volunteer Among Medical and Health Students During Pandemic: Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

During health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, shortages of health care workers often occur. Recruiting students as volunteers could be an option, but it is uncertain whether the idea is well-accepted.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to estimate the global rate of willingness to volunteer among medical and health students in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted on PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for studies reporting the number of health students willing to volunteer during COVID-19 from 2019 to November 17, 2023. The meta-analysis was performed using a restricted maximum-likelihood model with logit transformation.

RESULTS

A total of 21 studies involving 26,056 health students were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimate of the willingness-to-volunteer rate among health students across multiple countries was 66.13%, with an I2 of 98.99% and P value of heterogeneity (P-Het)<.001. Removing a study with the highest influence led to the rate being 64.34%. Our stratified analyses indicated that those with older age, being first-year students, and being female were more willing to volunteer (P<.001). From highest to lowest, the rates were 77.38%, 77.03%, 65.48%, 64.11%, 62.71%, and 55.23% in Africa, Western Europe, East and Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Eastern Europe, respectively. Because of the high heterogeneity, the evidence from this study has moderate strength.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of students are willing to volunteer during COVID-19, suggesting that volunteer recruitment is well-accepted.

COVID-19 Pandemic Risk Assessment: Systematic Review

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic presents the possibility of future large-scale infectious disease outbreaks. In response, we conducted a systematic review of COVID-19 pandemic risk assessment to provide insights into countries' pandemic surveillance and preparedness for potential pandemic events in the post-COVID-19 era.

Objective

We aim to systematically identify relevant articles and synthesize pandemic risk assessment findings to facilitate government officials and public health experts in crisis planning.

Methods

This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines and included over 620,000 records from the World Health Organization COVID-19 Research Database. Articles related to pandemic risk assessment were identified based on a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Relevant articles were characterized based on study location, variable types, data-visualization techniques, research objectives, and methodologies. Findings were presented using tables and charts.

Results

Sixty-two articles satisfying both the inclusion and exclusion criteria were identified. Among the articles, 32.3% focused on local areas, while another 32.3% had a global coverage. Epidemic data were the most commonly used variables (74.2% of articles), with over half of them (51.6%) employing two or more variable types. The research objectives covered various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, with risk exposure assessment and identification of risk factors being the most common theme (35.5%). No dominant research methodology for risk assessment emerged from these articles.

Conclusion

Our synthesized findings support proactive planning and development of prevention and control measures in anticipation of future public health threats.

Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Increase or Decrease the Global Cyberbullying Behaviors? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Although cyberbullying is an emerging public health problem, it is unclear how the COVID-19 pandemic affects cyberbullying. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on cyberbullying, to estimate the global cyberbullying prevalence and to explore factors related to cyberbullying during the COVID-19 pandemic. We searched the Medline, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, Eric, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Wanfang, Chinese CNKI, and EBSCO databases to identify relevant empirical studies published between 2019 and 2022. A total of 36 studies were included. Quality assessment, meta-analyses, and subgroup analyses were conducted. The pooled prevalences were 16% for overall cyberbullying, 18% for victimization and 11% for perpetration during the COVID-19 pandemic, which were lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. The pooled prevalence of postpandemic cyberbullying perpetration is lower in children than in adults. In addition, both virus- and lockdown-related stressors were the main factors contributing to cyberbullying. The COVID-19 crisis may reduce cyberbullying, and the pooled prevalence of cyberbullying during the pandemic in adults is higher than in children and adolescents. In addition, the transient-enduring factor model of postpandemic cyberbullying built in this review could help identify people at high risk of cyberbullying during public health emergencies.

Measuring the Nursing Work Environment during Public Health Emergencies: Scale Adaptation and Validation

Aim

To develop a scale for measuring nurse's perceived work environment during the public health emergencies (PHEs) and assess its reliability and validity.

Background

Although there is extensive research on instruments for measuring nursing work environments in regular healthcare settings, there is a lack of specific scales tailored to address the unique work conditions experienced by nurses during PHEs.

Design

This study employed a cross-sectional design for psychometric evaluation and adhered to the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement.

Methods

A self-report scale, the Chinese Nursing Work Environment Scale for Public Health Emergencies (C-NWE-PHE), was developed, integrating situational characteristics. Data on demographics, adapted scale scores, and subjective evaluations of nursing management performance were collected from 1156 nurses through online surveys conducted between January 2023 and March 2023. Confirmatory factor analysis, Pearson correlations, and Cronbach's alpha analyses were conducted to evaluate the psychometric properties of the scale.

Results

The adapted C-NWE-PHE scale comprised 28 items organized into five subscales: Workforce and Deployment Support, Leadership and Emergency Management, Autonomy and Empowerment, Teamwork and Collaboration, and Logistics and Humanistic Care. Structural equation modelling showed satisfactory factor loadings for each subscale and a good model fit, confirming construct validity. The content validity and reliability of the total scale were confirmed.

Conclusion

This study provides empirical evidence for understanding and assessing the nursing work environment during PHEs with a psychometrically sound scale. Implications for Nursing Management. The C-NWE-PHE scale, along with its five identified constructs, provides a nuanced comprehension of working conditions amid PHEs. Implementing this scale could foster specific enhancements, support nurse retention efforts, and enhance the effectiveness of responses during challenging emergency situations.

Global Mapping and Visualization Analysis of One Health Knowledge in the COVID-19 Context

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the health, social, and economic systems, triggering lasting damage and exposing the complexity of the problem beyond just being a health emergency. This crisis has highlighted the need for a comprehensive and collaborative strategy to successfully counter infectious diseases and other global challenges. With the COVID-19 pandemic pushing One Health to the forefront of global health and sustainable development agendas, this concept has emerged as a potential approach for addressing these challenges. In the context of COVID-19, this study investigates global knowledge about One Health by examining its state, significant contributions, and future directions. It seeks to offer an integrated framework of insights guiding the development of well-informed decisions. A comprehensive search using the Scopus database was conducted, employing specific terms related to One Health and COVID-19. VOSviewer 1.6.19 software was used to generate network visualization maps. Countries' research output was adjusted based on their gross domestic product (GDP) and population size. The study identified a total of 527 publications. The United States led with 134 documents (25.4%), but India topped the adjusted ranking. One Health journal stood as the most common outlet for disseminating knowledge (49 documents; 9.3%), while Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the United States emerged as the most prolific institution (13 documents; 2.5%). Key topics were related to the virus transmission mechanisms, climate change impacts, antimicrobial resistance, ecosystem health, preparedness, collaboration, community engagement, and developing of efficient surveillance systems. The study emphasizes how critical it is to capitalize on the present momentum of COVID-19 to advance One Health concepts. Integrating social and environmental sciences, and a variety of professions for better interaction and collaboration is crucial. Additionally, increased funding for developing countries, and legislative empowerment are vital to advance One Health and boost disease prevention.

Hospitals' Collaborations Strengthen Pandemic Preparedness: Lessons Learnt from COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic strained healthcare systems around the world. This study aims to understand the preparedness of private remote hospitals in Lebanon to respond to the pandemic and evaluate the impact of inter-hospital collaborations on the hospitals' readiness.

METHODS

A multi-centered study was conducted between August 2020 and June 2021 in ten Lebanese private remote hospitals based on a mixed-methods embedded approach where the quantitative supported the qualitative. Through the AUB-USAID (American University of Beirut-United States Agency for International Development) COVID-19 project, these hospitals received personal protective equipment and medical equipment in addition to COVID-19-related training using the Train-the-Trainer model. The quantitative part used knowledge and evaluation questionnaires and a pre-post-intervention hospital preparedness checklist. The qualitative approach adopted semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample from key hospital personnel. Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS version 27, and a p-value of <0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. For the qualitative data, a thematic analysis was performed by adopting the six-phase process described by Braun and Clarke.

RESULTS

Of the 393 healthcare workers who attended the training and completed the evaluation questionnaire, 326 completed the pre- and post-training knowledge questionnaire. A significant improvement was observed in mean knowledge scores following training for infection control, nursing, and polymerase chain reaction sampling staff (p-value < 0.001, p-value < 0.001, and p-value = 0.006, respectively), but not for housekeeping staff. More than 93% of the participants showed high trainer and content evaluation scores. As for the hospitals' preparedness assessments, there was a clear improvement in the pre- and post-assessment scores for each hospital, and there was a significant difference in the mean of the total scores of partner hospitals pre- and post-USAID-AUB project (p-value = 0.005). These findings were supported by the qualitative analysis, where nine hospitals expressed the positive impact of the USAID-AUB intervention in improving their preparedness to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic at a critical time when it was highly needed. Despite the intervention, persistent challenges remained.

CONCLUSIONS

A timely and proactive collaborative program between academic/tertiary care centers and remote community hospitals that includes sharing supplies and expertise is feasible and highly effective during public health emergencies.

A closer look at the international health regulations capacities in Lebanon: a mixed method study

BACKGROUND

Lebanon ratified the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005) in 2007, and since then, it has been facing complex political deadlocks, financial deterioration, and infectious disease emergencies. We aimed to understand the IHR capacities' scores of Lebanon in comparison to other countries, the IHR milestones and activities in Lebanon, the challenges of maintaining the IHR capacities, the refugee crisis's impact on the development of these capacities; and the possible recommendations to support the IHR performance in Lebanon.

METHODS

We used a mixed-method design. The study combined the use of secondary data analysis of the 2020 State Party Self-Assessment Annual Report (SPAR) submissions and qualitative design using semi-structured interviews with key informants. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine key informants. The analysis of the data generated was based on inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

According to SPAR, Lebanon had levels of 4 out of 5 (≤ 80%) in 2020 in the prevention, detection, response, enabling functions, and operational readiness capacities, pertaining that the country was functionally capable of dealing with various events at the national and subnational levels. Lebanon scored more than its neighboring countries, Syria, and Jordan, which have similar contexts of economic crises, emergencies, and refugee waves. Despite this high level of commitment to meeting IHR capacities, the qualitative findings demonstrated several gaps in IHR performance as resource shortage, governance, and political challenges. The study also showed contradictory results regarding the impact of refugees on IHR capacities. Some key informants agreed that the Syrian crisis had a positive impact, while others suggested the opposite. Whether refugees interfere with IHR development is still an area that needs further investigation.

CONCLUSION

The study shows that urgent interventions are needed to strengthen the implementation of the IHR capacities in Lebanon. The study recommends 1) reconsidering the weight given to IHR capacities; 2) promoting governance to strengthen IHR compliance; 3) strengthening the multisectoral coordination mechanisms; 4) reinforcing risk communication strategies constantly; 5) mobilizing and advancing human resources at the central and sub-national levels; 6) ensuring sustainable financing; 7) integrating refugees and displaced persons in IHR framework and its assessment tools; 8) acknowledging risk mapping as a pre-requisite to a successful response; and 9) strengthening research on IHR capacities in Lebanon.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: assessing the prevalence, predictors, and effectiveness of a community pharmacy based counseling intervention

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine hesitancy is a global challenge. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the problem has persisted despite vaccine availability and decreasing infections. In Uganda, there is still limited information on the extent and predictors of vaccine hesitancy. This study sought to assess the prevalence and predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, and the effectiveness of an intervention that involved community pharmacy counseling in combating COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.

METHODS

A total of 394 participants were enrolled in a 4-week prospective cohort interventional study. The study was conducted across eight community pharmacies in Mbarara City, between 9:00 AM and 5:00 PM daily. The study personnel ascertained the vaccination status of all clients seeking community pharmacy services. All unvaccinated clients were consecutively assessed for eligibility, and eligible clients were systematically enrolled after receiving the community pharmacy services for which they requested. The study intervention involved structured participant counseling (within the pharmacy premise), follow-up short message service (weekly), and telephone calls (bi-weekly). Only participants who did not accept to receive the COVID-19 vaccine despite counseling were followed up for four weeks, or until they accepted to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. The effectiveness of the community pharmacy counseling intervention was determined as an increase in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, and desirable attitudinal change towards COVID-19 disease, vaccination exercise, and vaccines. Descriptive analysis was used to summarize data, and multivariate analysis was used to determine the predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Out of 394 participants, 221 (56%) were hesitant to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Participants expressed several reasons (mean 2±1) for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, mostly concerning vaccine safety (N=160, 47.3%). The overall COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate increased by 25.4 percent points (43.9 - 69.3 percent points) after the study intervention. Age, religion, level of education, distance from the nearest public health facility, having a friend/family diagnosed with COVID-19, and personal suspicion of contracting COVID-19 were significant predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is a big challenge in Uganda. A mix of sociodemographic and COVID-19 vaccine perceptions are the key predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Although COVID-19 vaccines were not available at the time of the study, this study found that structured counseling interventions can improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates. Larger prospective studies should evaluate the effectiveness of similar interventions in community pharmacies and other healthcare settings.

Generalized anxiety disorder and associated factors in primary health care workers in Minas Gerais, Brazil

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic had direct and indirect impacts on public health, also affecting the mental health of the population.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and associated factors, in primary health care (PHC) professionals.

METHODS

Cross-sectional and analytical study conducted with professionals who work in the Primary Health Care (PHC) of the Northern health macro-region of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Data collection was carried out through an online, self-administered questionnaire, made available from August 27, 2021, to October 30, 2021 using the Google Forms tool. The questionnaire included sociodemographic questions as well as questions related to the history of anxiety and work during the pandemic. To assess anxiety symptoms, the General Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) instrument was used. Data treatment consisted of descriptive analysis of the variables, bivariate analysis followed by multivariate Poisson Regression with robust variance.

RESULTS

702 health professionals participated in the study and the general prevalence of GAD was 32.2%. Current anxiety symptoms were self-reported by 37.6% of the participants. In the final model, the associated factors identified were: female sex (PR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.17-2.84; p = 0.007), previous symptoms (PR = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.19-2.10; p = 0.002) and (PR = 2.68; 95% CI = 2.00-3.62; p < 0.001) current self-reported anxiety.

CONCLUSION

The results show the need to implement actions in mental health promotion and anxiety prevention, through the dissemination of information about mental health care, health education activities, encouraging the adoption of healthy habits and professional monitoring when necessary.

Resilience of research capacity strengthening initiatives in Africa during crises: the case of CARTA during COVID

Background: Several research capacity strengthening (RCS) initiatives have been established in Africa over the past decade. One such initiative is the Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa (CARTA) that has gained traction over the years and has been proven as an effective multidisciplinary approach to strengthen research capacity to address public and population health in Africa. Objectives: In this article, we document the experiences and management-related interventions that cushioned the CARTA programme and enabled it to remain resilient during the COVID pandemic. We further make recommendations on the enablers of resilience and optimal performance of such RCS initiatives during crises and beyond. Methods: We used routine information gathered by the CARTA secretariat from consortium correspondence, meeting minutes, reports and other related documents produced in the year 2020 in order to consolidate the experiences and interventions taken by the programme at programmatic, institutional and fellowship levels. Results: We identified a series of management-related cyclic phases that CARTA went through during the pandemic period, which included immobilisation, reflection, brainstorming, decision-making, intervening and recovery. We further identified strategic management-related interventions that contributed to the resilience of the programme during the pandemic including assessment and monitoring, communication management, policy and resource management, making investments and execution. Moreover, we observed that the strength of the leadership and management of CARTA, coupled with the consortium´s culture of collaboration, mutual trust, respect, openness, transparency, equitability, ownership, commitment and accountability, all contributed to its success during the pandemic period. Conclusion: We conclude that RCS initiatives undergo a series of phases during crises and that they need to promptly adopt and adapt appropriate management-related strategic interventions in order to remain resilient during such periods. This can be significantly realised if RCS initiatives build a culture of trust, commitment and joint ownership, and if they invest in strong management capacity.

Symptom-based scoring technique by machine learning to predict COVID-19: a validation study

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surges, such as that which occurred when omicron variants emerged, may overwhelm healthcare systems. To function properly, such systems should balance detection and workloads by improving referrals using simple yet precise and sensitive diagnostic predictions. A symptom-based scoring system was developed using machine learning for the general population, but no validation has occurred in healthcare settings. We aimed to validate a COVID-19 scoring system using self-reported symptoms, including loss of smell and taste as major indicators.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate medical records of patients admitted to Dr. Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, from March 2020 to December 2021. Outcomes were defined by a reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). We compared the symptom-based scoring system, as the index test, with antigen tests, antibody tests, and clinical judgements by primary care physicians. To validate use of the index test to improve referral, we evaluated positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity.

RESULTS

After clinical judgement with a PPV of 61% (n = 327/530, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 60% to 62%), confirmation with the index test resulted in the highest PPV of 85% (n = 30/35, 95% CI: 83% to 87%) but the lowest sensitivity (n = 30/180, 17%, 95% CI: 15% to 19%). If this confirmation was defined by either positive predictive scoring or antigen tests, the PPV was 92% (n = 55/60, 95% CI: 90% to 94%). Meanwhile, the sensitivity was 88% (n = 55/62, 95% CI: 87% to 89%), which was higher than that when using only antigen tests (n = 29/41, 71%, 95% CI: 69% to 73%).

CONCLUSIONS

The symptom-based COVID-19 predictive score was validated in healthcare settings for its precision and sensitivity. However, an impact study is needed to confirm if this can balance detection and workload for the next COVID-19 surge.

Hospital Performance Evaluation Checklist in Context of COVID-19 Pandemic: Design and Validation

OBJECTIVE

Around the world, pandemics have been considered among the main hazards in the last 2 decades. Hospitals are 1 of the most important organizations responding to pandemics. The aim of this study was to design and develop a valid checklist for evaluating the hospitals' performance in response to COVID-19 pandemic, for the first time.

METHODS

This study is a mixed method research design that began in February, 2020 and was conducted in 3 phases: Designing a conceptual model, designing a primary checklist structure, and checklist psychometric evaluation. Known-groups method has been used to evaluate construct validity. Two groups of hospitals were compared: group A (COVID-19 Hospitals) and group B (the other hospitals).

RESULTS

The checklist's main structure was designed with 6 main domains, 23 sub-domains, and 152 items. The content validity ratio and index were 0.94 and 0.79 respectively. Eleven items were added, 106 items were removed, and 40 items were edited. Independent t-test showed a significant difference between the scores of the 2 groups of hospitals (P < 0.0001). Pearson correlation coefficient test also showed a high correlation between our checklist and the other. The internal consistency of the checklist was 0.98 according to Cronbach's alpha test.

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluating the hospitals' performance and identifying their strengths and weaknesses, can help health system policymakers and hospital managers, and leads to improved performance in response to COVID-19.

Improving the quality of COVID-19 care in Sierra Leone: A modified Delphi process and serial nationwide assessments of quality of COVID-19 care in Sierra Leone

INTRODUCTION

Improving the quality of care that patients receive is paramount to improving patient outcomes and engendering trust during infectious disease outbreaks. Whilst Quality Improvement (QI) is well established to drive improvement in routine care and in health systems, there are fewer reports of its use during infectious disease outbreaks.

METHODS

A modified Delphi process was undertaken to create a standardized assessment tool for the quality of COVID-19 care in Sierra Leone. Four rounds of assessment were undertaken between July 2020 and July 2021. To assess change across the four assessment periods compared to baseline we used a mixed effects model and report coefficients and p values.

RESULTS

During the Delphi process, 12/14 participants selected the domains to be assessed within the tool. The final 50 questions included 13 outcome questions, 17 process questions and 20 input questions. A total of 94 assessments were undertaken over four assessment periods at 27 facilities. An increase of 8.75 (p = <0.01) in total score was seen in round 2, 10.67 (p = <0.01) in round 3 and 2.17 (p = 0.43) in round 4 compared to baseline. Mean cumulative scores for COVID-19 Treatment Centres were higher than Hospital Isolation Units (p<0.02) at all four timepoints. Significant improvements were reported in coordination, diagnostics, staffing, infection prevention and control (IPC), nutrition, and vulnerable populations domains, but not in the oxygen, care processes, infrastructure and drugs domains.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate the feasibility of creating a quality of care assessment tool and conducting sequential nationwide assessments during an infectious disease outbreak. We report significant improvements in quality-of-care scores in round 2 and round 3 compared to baseline, however, these improvements were not sustained. We recommend the use of QI and the creation of standardised assessment tools to improve quality of care during outbreak responses.

Assessment of the Implementation of the International Health Regulations during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Portugal as a Case Study

INTRODUCTION

The International Health Regulations (IHR) were developed to prepare countries to deal with public health emergencies. The spread of SARS-CoV-2 underlined the need for international coordination, although few attempts were made to evaluate the integrated implementation of the IHR's core capacities in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether IHR shortcomings stem from non-compliance or regulatory issues, using Portugal as a European case study due to its size, organization, and previous discrepancies between self-reporting and peer assessment of the IHR's core capacities.

METHODS

Fifteen public health medical residents involved in contact tracing in mainland Portugal interpreted the effectiveness of the IHR's core capabilities by reviewing the publicly available evidence and reflecting on their own field experience, then grading each core capability according to the IHR Monitoring Framework. The assessment of IHR enforcement considered efforts made before and after the onset of the pandemic, covering the period up to July 2021.

RESULTS

Four out of nine core IHR capacities (surveillance; response; risk communication; and human resource capacity) were classified as level 1, the lowest. Only two were graded level 3 (preparedness; and laboratory), the highest. The remaining three) (national legislation, policy & financing; coordination and national focal point communication; and points of entry) were classified as level 2.

CONCLUSION

Portugal exemplifies the extent to which implementation of the IHR was not fully achieved, which has resulted in the underperformance of several core capacities. There is a need to improve preparedness and international cooperation in order to harmonize and strengthen the global response to public health emergencies, with better political, institutional, and financial support.

Effect of temperature on fast transmission of COVID-19 in low per capita GDP Asian countries

An abrupt outbreak of COVID-19 caused enormous global concerns. Although all countries around the world are severely affected, developing Asian countries faced more difficulties due to their low per capita GDP. The temperature was considered a leading variable in spreading viral diseases, including COVID-19. The present study aimed to assess the relationship between temperature and the spread of COVID-19, with a focus on developing Asian countries. In a few Asian countries, COVID-19 spread rapidly in the summer, while in some countries, there is an increase in winter. A linear correlation was developed between COVID-19 cases/deaths and temperature for the selected countries, which were very weak. A coefficient of determination of 0.334 and 0.365 was observed between cases and average monthly max/min temperatures. A correlation of R2 = 0.307 and 0.382 was found between deaths and average max/min monthly temperatures, respectively. There is no scientific reason to assume that COVID-19 is more dominant at low than high temperatures. Therefore, it is believed that the results may be helpful for the health department and decision-makers to understand the fast spread of COVID-19.

Stem cell-based therapy for COVID-19

While The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that COVID-19 is no longer a public health emergency of international concern(PHEIC), the risk of reinfection and new emerging variants still makes it crucial to study and work towards the prevention of COVID-19. Stem cell and stem cell-like derivatives have shown some promising results in clinical trials and preclinical studies as an alternative treatment option for the pulmonary illnesses caused by the COVID-19 and can be used as a potential vaccine. In this review, we will systematically summarize the pathophysiological process and potential mechanisms underlying stem cell-based therapy in COVID-19, and the registered COVID-19 clinical trials, and engineered extracellular vesicle as a potential vaccine for preventing COVID-19.

Wastewater-based surveillance models for COVID-19: A focused review on spatio-temporal models

The evident shedding of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA particles from infected individuals into the wastewater opened up a tantalizing array of possibilities for prediction of COVID-19 prevalence prior to symptomatic case identification through community testing. Many countries have therefore explored the use of wastewater metrics as a surveillance tool, replacing traditional direct measurement of prevalence with cost-effective approaches based on SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater samples. Two important aspects in building prediction models are: time over which the prediction occurs and space for which the predicted case numbers is shown. In this review, our main focus was on finding mathematical models which take into the account both the time-varying and spatial nature of wastewater-based metrics into account. We used six main characteristics as our assessment criteria: i) modelling approach; ii) temporal coverage; iii) spatial coverage; iv) sample size; v) wastewater sampling method; and vi) covariates included in the modelling. The majority of studies in the early phases of the pandemic recognized the temporal association of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration level in wastewater with the number of COVID-19 cases, ignoring their spatial context. We examined 15 studies up to April 2023, focusing on models considering both temporal and spatial aspects of wastewater metrics. Most early studies correlated temporal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels with COVID-19 cases but overlooked spatial factors. Linear regression and SEIR models were commonly used (n = 10, 66.6 % of studies), along with machine learning (n = 1, 6.6 %) and Bayesian approaches (n = 1, 6.6 %) in some cases. Three studies employed spatio-temporal modelling approach (n = 3, 20.0 %). We conclude that the development, validation and calibration of further spatio-temporally explicit models should be done in parallel with the advancement of wastewater metrics before the potential of wastewater as a surveillance tool can be fully realised.

Assessing public health preparedness and response in the European Union- a review of regional simulation exercises and after action reviews

BACKGROUND

Improving response capacities in the EU requires a good overview of capacities at both country and Union level. The International Health Regulations (2005) Monitoring and Evaluation framework assesses capacities in countries. It includes semi-quantitative tools such as State Parties Annual Report (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation (JEE). After Action Reviews (AAR) and Simulation Exercises (SimEx) were included to identify weaknesses in the functionality of capacities which are not addressed bySPAR and JEE. This study presents an analysis of the use of qualitative tools at regional level, in Europe. It aims to identify their added value by comparing them to standardised monitoring tools and lessons learned from COVID-19, and considers ways to improve their use in assessing capacities in the EU.

METHODS

We included 17 SimEx and 2 AAR organised by the European Commission between 2005 and 2018. We categorised a total of 357 recommendations according to the IHR (2005) core capacities and to the target audience of the recommendation. We analysed the data using language analysis software. Recommendations to countries were compared to SPAR and JEE indicators. Recommendations to EU agencies were compared to the current mandates of the EU agencies, and to lessons learnt during COVID-19.

RESULTS

Of all extracted recommendations from the exercises, 59% (211/357) targeted EU agencies, 18% (64/357) targeted countries, and 16% (57/357) targeted both. Recommendations mainly addressed areas of IHR coordination (C2), heath emergency management (C7) and risk communication (C10), and not low scoring areas. Recommendations complement SPAR indicators by identifying gaps in functionality. Eight out of ten early lessons learnt during the COVID-19 pandemic had been raised earlier as recommendations from exercises. Exercise reports did not include or result in action plans for implementation, but COVID-19 has accelerated implementation of some recommendations.

CONCLUSION

SimEx/AAR provide valuable insight into public health preparedness at EU level, as they assess functionality of preparedness and response mechanisms, point out gaps, and provide training and awareness on for participants, who often have key roles in public health emergencies. Better follow-up and implementation of recommendations is key to improve the regional preparedness for international public health incidents such as pandemics.

Regional Variations in Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality in Japan: An Ecological Study

Introduction

As the characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vary across regions and countries, the relationship between regional characteristics, such as the distribution of physicians and hospital beds, and COVID-19 mortality was assessed in the 47 prefectures of Japan.

Methods

This ecological study was based on the number of patients with COVID-19 by prefecture during the seventh wave of COVID-19 in Japan (June-October 2022). COVID-19 mortality was indexed as the number of COVID-19 deaths divided by the number of new COVID-19 cases. Data on regional factors, such as population size, number of physicians, and hospital beds by prefecture, were obtained from government statistics. Correlations between regional characteristics and COVID-19 mortality index were analyzed by dividing the 47 prefectures into two groups at the median level of population size (more populated group [MPG] ≥ 1.6 million and less populated group [LPG] < 1.6 million).

Results

The COVID-19 mortality index (mean 12.7, minimum-maximum: 4.7-25.7) was correlated negatively with the number of physicians per hospital bed (r = -0.386, p = 0.007) and positively with the number of long-term care facilities per 10,000 population (r = 0.397, p = 0.006) and aging rate (the proportion of population aged ≥ 65 years) (r = 0.471, p = 0.001). The two groups varied with respect to the number of physicians (28.7 physicians in the LPG vs. 26.1 physicians in the MPG, p = 0.038) and hospital beds (156 beds in the LPG vs. 119 beds in the MPG, p < 0.001) per 10,000 population. In the multiple regression analysis, the COVID-19 mortality index was correlated negatively with the number of physicians per hospital bed (β = -0.543, p = 0.024) and positively with the aging rate (β = 0.434, p = 0.032) in the LPG, with nonsignificant correlations in the MPG.

Conclusions

The data may suggest a need of improvement in the distribution of physicians and hospital beds in the healthcare system in regions with smaller and older populations to reduce the rate of COVID-19.

Assessing healthcare capacity crisis preparedness: development of an evaluation tool by a Canadian health authority

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic presented health systems across the globe with unparalleled socio-political, ethical, scientific, and economic challenges. Despite the necessity for a unified, innovative, and effective response, many jurisdictions were unprepared to such a profound health crisis. This study aims to outline the creation of an evaluative tool designed to measure and evaluate the Vitalité Health Network's (New Brunswick, Canada) ability to manage health crises.

Methods

The methodology of this work was carried out in four stages: (1) construction of an evaluative framework; (2) validation of the framework; (3) construction of the evaluative tool for the Health Authority; and (4) evaluation of the capacity to manage a health crisis.

Results

The resulting evaluative tool incorporated 8 dimensions, 74 strategies, and 109 observable elements. The dimensions included: (1) clinical care management; (2) infection prevention and control; (3) governance and leadership; (4) human and logistic resources; (5) communication and technologies; (6) health research; (7) ethics and values; and (8) training. A Canadian Health Authority implemented the tool to support its future preparedness.

Conclusion

This study introduces a methodological strategy adopted by a Canadian health authority to evaluate its capacity in managing health crises. Notably, this study marks the first instance where a Canadian health authority has created a tool for emergency healthcare management, informed by literature in the field and their direct experience from handling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Saudi Health System and Health Security Structure: A Scope Review Study Addressing the National Need for Governing the Health Security

Health security has gained significant attention at the national and global levels, "security" is not a simple term; instead, it is "essentially contested" - that is, it induces debates about what it means and how to use it. This study aimed to define three terms frequently used in health security discussions. These terms are national health security, Global Health Security, and public health. The research method was a scoping review performed in three stages. The first stage was electronic searching based on selection criteria among multiple sources at various time points during the year 2023. These sources included online literature searches, websites of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other governmental health agencies. The second stage involved determining the relevance of the selected papers to the study's objectives; the selected papers had moderate to high relevance to the study's objectives. The third stage was to evaluate the methodological quality of a study; we selected peer-reviewed published papers and websites recognized as trustworthy sources of information. The search yielded 143 articles; five met the inclusion criteria and were subjected to the definition of health security. Despite proposed definitions, agreement has yet to be reached on the content and scope of health security. Another main finding is that health security requires more state and international collaboration efforts to reach Global Health Security. To the best of our knowledge, no known government body or organization is responsible for governing health security in Saudi Arabia. However, the current study presents a definition of health security and differentiates it from the public health approach, in addition to emphasizing the importance of governing the related health sectors within each country in order to improve health security and have a positive impact on overall Global Health Security.

Lessons learned from identifying clusters of severe acute respiratory infections with influenza sentinel surveillance, Bangladesh, 2009-2020

Background

We explored whether hospital-based surveillance is useful in detecting severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) clusters and how often these events result in outbreak investigation and community mitigation.

Methods

During May 2009-December 2020, physicians at 14 sentinel hospitals prospectively identified SARI clusters (i.e., ≥2 SARI cases who developed symptoms ≤10 days of each other and lived <30 min walk or <3 km from each other). Oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza and other respiratory viruses by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). We describe the demographic of persons within clusters, laboratory results, and outbreak investigations.

Results

Field staff identified 464 clusters comprising 1427 SARI cases (range 0-13 clusters per month). Sixty percent of clusters had three, 23% had two, and 17% had ≥4 cases. Their median age was 2 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 0.4-25) and 63% were male. Laboratory results were available for the 464 clusters with a median of 9 days (IQR = 6-13 days) after cluster identification. Less than one in five clusters had cases that tested positive for the same virus: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in 58 (13%), influenza viruses in 24 (5%), human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in five (1%), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) in three (0.6%), adenovirus in two (0.4%). While 102/464 (22%) had poultry exposure, none tested positive for influenza A (H5N1) or A (H7N9). None of the 464 clusters led to field deployments for outbreak response.

Conclusions

For 11 years, none of the hundreds of identified clusters led to an emergency response. The value of this event-based surveillance might be improved by seeking larger clusters, with stronger epidemiologic ties or decedents.

Potential Strengths and Weaknesses in Hospital Resilience in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: A Case Study

The analysis of hospital resilience is essential in understanding how health services prepared for and responded to sudden shocks and unexpected challenges in the COVID-19 health crisis. This study aimed to analyze the resilience of a referral hospital in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main theoretical approach based on resilience is the system's capacity to maintain essential functions and to absorb, adapt, and transform in the face of unprecedented or unexpected changes. A single case study approach was used to identify the strengths and weaknesses of this response capacity. Data triangulation was employed. Data were collected from April (beginning of case discharges) to October 2020 (decrease in the moving average of cases in 2020). A content analysis was then conducted. Data were analyzed in relation to context, effects, strategies, and impacts in facing the disruptions caused by the pandemic. The results indicated the occurrence of four configurations mostly favorable to hospital resilience during the study period. Among the main strengths were: injection of financial resources; implementation of new hospital protocols; formation of a support network; equipping and continuing education of professionals; and proactive leadership. Weaknesses found in the analysis included: initial insufficiency of personal protective equipment and confirmatory tests; difficulties in restructuring work schedules; increasing illness among professionals; stress generated by constant changes and work overload; sense of discrimination for being a health professional; lack of knowledge about the clinical management of the disease; and the reduction of non-COVID assistance services.

Universal health coverage mitigated COVID-19 health-related consequences in Asia Oceania

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a continual challenge since 2020, and it continues to impact people and industries as a disaster caused by a biological hazard. This study examined universal health coverage (UHC) scores in relation to the performance in combating COVID-19 in the Southeast Asian region (SEAR) and the Western Pacific region (WPR), along with the State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting (SPAR) index under the international health regulations (IHC). The numbers of infections and deaths per million population from December 2019 to June 2022 were used as primary outcomes to measure countries' performance. Countries with UHC scores of 63 or higher had a significantly lower number of infected patients and deaths. In addition, several inter-capacity correlations within the SPAR capacities, including with C8 (the National Health Emergency Framework), as well as a very strong correlation to C4 (Food Safety), C5 (Laboratory), and C7 (Human Resources). Furthermore, C9 (Health Service Provisions) has a very strong correlation to C1 (Legislation and Financing), C2 (International Health Regulation Coordination and a National IHR Focal Point function), and C4 (Food Safety), suggesting that the capability to manage an emerging infectious disease form blocks of capacities. In conclusion, UHC clearly mitigated the health-related consequences of COVID-19 in South-East Asia Region (SEAR) and Western Pacific Region (WPR). Investigating the correlation between the SPAR capacities and UHC is a promising approach for future research, including the importance of the provision of health services, points of entry, and, most importantly, risk communications as critical factors for managing pandemic. This study constitutes a good opportunity to apply the SPAR index to define which capacities correlate with the outcome of the pandemic in terms of infections and deaths.

Common mental disorders in Primary Health Care professionals during the COVID-19 pandemic period: a cross-sectional study in the Northern health macro-region of Minas Gerais state, Brazil, 2021

OBJECTIVE

to analyze the prevalence of symptoms of common mental disorders (CMDs) in Primary Health Care professionals between August-October/2021.

METHODS

this was a cross-sectional study conducted with health professionals in the Northern health macro-region of Minas Gerais state; snowball sampling was used; the dependent variable, CMDs, was evaluated using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20); Poisson regression was used to perform the statistical analysis.

RESULTS

a total of 702 health professionals took part in the study; the prevalence of CDMs was 43.2%. It was higher in those with previous [prevalence ratios (PR) = 2.42; 95%CI 1.43;4.08] and current (PR = 1.54; 95%CI 1.25;1.89) symptoms of mental disorders, overwork during the pandemic (PR = 1.42; 95%CI 1.16;1.73), previous symptoms of anxiety (PR = 1.27; 95%CI 1.01;1.61), depression (PR = 1.27; 95%CI 1.06;1.52) and other mental disorders (PR = 1.20; 95%CI 1.01;1.43).

CONCLUSION

there was an association between CDMs and presenting previous and current symptoms of mental disorders and work overload during the covid-19 pandemic.

Coping strategies of the incarcerated during the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review protocol of quantitative and qualitative evidence

INTRODUCTION

To reduce the transmission of COVID-19, regulations included the use of cloth masks, sanitising regularly, maintaining social distance and having minimal personal contact. COVID-19 affected many different groups of people including service providers and users of correctional centres. In this protocol, we aim to establish evidence on the challenges and coping strategies adopted by the incarcerated and service providers of the incarcerated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In this scoping review, we will use the Arksey and O'Malley framework. We will consult PubMed, PsycInfo, SAGE, JSTOR, African Journals and Google Scholar as our databases to search for evidence, and run a continuous search of articles from June 2022 until we conduct an analysis to ensure that our search results are updated. Two reviewers will independently screen the titles, abstracts and full texts for inclusion. All results will be compiled, and duplicates will be removed. Discrepancies and conflicts will be discussed with the third reviewer. All articles that meet the full-text criteria will be included for data extraction. Results will be reported in line with the review objectives and the Donabedian conceptual framework.

DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval of the study will not be applicable in this scoping review. Our findings will be disseminated in different ways, such as publishing in peer-reviewed journals and to other key correctional system stakeholders, as well as submitting a policy brief for prison decision makers and policy makers.

COVID-19 surveillance in Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda: strengths, weaknesses and key Lessons

INTRODUCTION

As part of efforts to rapidly identify and care for individuals with COVID-19, trace and quarantine contacts, and monitor disease trends over time, most African countries implemented interventions to strengthen their existing disease surveillance systems. This research describes the strengths, weaknesses and lessons learnt from the COVID-19 surveillance strategies implemented in four African countries to inform the enhancement of surveillance systems for future epidemics on the continent.

METHODS

The four countries namely the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda, were selected based on their variability in COVID-19 response and representation of Francophone and Anglophone countries. A mixed-methods observational study was conducted including desk review and key informant interviews, to document best practices, gaps, and innovations in surveillance at the national, sub-national, health facilities, and community levels, and these learnings were synthesized across the countries.

RESULTS

Surveillance approaches across countries included - case investigation, contact tracing, community-based, laboratory-based sentinel, serological, telephone hotlines, and genomic sequencing surveillance. As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, the health systems moved from aggressive testing and contact tracing to detect virus and triage individual contacts into quarantine and confirmed cases, isolation and clinical care. Surveillance, including case definitions, changed from contact tracing of all contacts of confirmed cases to only symptomatic contacts and travelers. All countries reported inadequate staffing, staff capacity gaps and lack of full integration of data sources. All four countries under study improved data management and surveillance capacity by training health workers and increasing resources for laboratories, but the disease burden was under-detected. Decentralizing surveillance to enable swifter implementation of targeted public health measures at the subnational level was a challenge. There were also gaps in genomic and postmortem surveillance including community level sero-prevalence studies, as well as digital technologies to provide more timely and accurate surveillance data.

CONCLUSION

All the four countries demonstrated a prompt public health surveillance response and adopted similar approaches to surveillance with some adaptations as the pandemic progresses. There is need for investments to enhance surveillance approaches and systems including decentralizing surveillance to the subnational and community levels, strengthening capabilities for genomic surveillance and use of digital technologies, among others. Investing in health worker capacity, ensuring data quality and availability and improving ability to transmit surveillance data between and across multiple levels of the health care system is also critical. Countries need to take immediate action in strengthening their surveillance systems to better prepare for the next major disease outbreak and pandemic.

COVID-19 and the law in Uganda: a case study on development and application of the public health act from 2020 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Despite the discovery of vaccines, the control, and prevention of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). This article describes the development and application of the Public Health Act to implement NPIs for COVID-19 pandemic control in Uganda.

METHODS

This is a case study of Uganda's experience with enacting COVID-19 Rules under the Public Health Act Cap. 281. The study assessed how and what Rules were developed, their influence on the outbreak progress, and litigation. The data sources reviewed were applicable laws and policies, Presidential speeches, Cabinet resolutions, statutory instruments, COVID-19 situation reports, and the registry of court cases that contributed to a triangulated analysis.

RESULTS

Uganda applied four COVID-19 broad Rules for the period March 2020 to October 2021. The Minister of Health enacted the Rules, which response teams, enforcement agencies, and the general population followed. The Presidential speeches, their expiry period and progress of the pandemic curve led to amendment of the Rules twenty one (21) times. The Uganda Peoples Defense Forces Act No. 7 of 2005, the Public Finance Management Act No. 3 of 2015, and the National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management supplemented the enacted COVID-19 Rules. However, these Rules attracted specific litigation due to perceived infringement on certain human rights provisions.

CONCLUSIONS

Countries can enact supportive legislation within the course of an outbreak. The balance of enforcing public health interventions and human rights infringements is an important consideration in future. We recommend public sensitization about legislative provisions and reforms to guide public health responses in future outbreaks or pandemics.

Moving from assessments to implementation: promising practices for strengthening multisectoral antimicrobial resistance containment capacity

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a global threat to human, animal, and environmental health. AMR is a technical area in the Global Health Security Agenda initiative which uses the Joint External Evaluation tool to evaluate national AMR containment capacity. This paper describes four promising practices for strengthening national antimicrobial resistance containment capacity based on the experiences of the US Agency for International Development's Medicines, Technologies, and Pharmaceutical Services Program work with 13 countries to implement their national action plans on AMR in the areas of multisectoral coordination, infection prevention and control, and antimicrobial stewardship.

METHODS

We use the World Health Organization (WHO) Benchmarks on International Health Regulations Capacities (2019) to guide national, subnational, and facility actions that advance Joint External Evaluation capacity levels from 1 (no capacity) to 5 (sustainable capacity). Our technical approach is based on scoping visits, baseline Joint External Evaluation scores, benchmarks tool guidance, and country resources and priorities.

RESULTS

We gleaned four promising practices to achieve AMR containment objectives: (1) implement appropriate actions using the WHO benchmarks tool, which prioritizes actions, making it easier for countries to incrementally increase their Joint External Evaluation capacity from level 1 to 5; (2) integrate AMR into national and global agendas. Ongoing agendas and programs at international, regional, and national levels provide opportunities to mainstream and interlink AMR containment efforts; (3) improve governance through multisectoral coordination on AMR. Strengthening multisectoral bodies' and their technical working groups' governance improved functioning, which led to better engagement with animal/agricultural sectors and a more coordinated COVID-19 pandemic response; and (4) mobilize and diversify funding for AMR containment. Long-term funding from diversified funding streams is vital for advancing and sustaining countries' Joint External Evaluation capacities.

CONCLUSIONS

The Global Health Security Agenda work has provided practical support to countries to frame and conduct AMR containment actions in terms of pandemic preparedness and health security. The WHO benchmarks tool that Global Health Security Agenda uses serves as a standardized organizing framework to prioritize capacity-appropriate AMR containment actions and transfer skills to help operationalize national action plans on AMR.

The positive impact of COVID-19 on critical care: from unprecedented challenges to transformative changes, from the perspective of young intensivists

Over the past 2 years, SARS-CoV-2 infection has resulted in numerous hospitalizations and deaths worldwide. As young intensivists, we have been at the forefront of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and it has been an intense learning experience affecting all aspects of our specialty. Critical care was put forward as a priority and managed to adapt to the influx of patients and the growing demand for beds, financial and material resources, thereby highlighting its flexibility and central role in the healthcare system. Intensivists assumed an essential and unprecedented role in public life, which was important when claiming for indispensable material and human investments. Physicians and researchers around the world worked hand-in-hand to advance research and better manage this disease by integrating a rapidly growing body of evidence into guidelines. Our daily ethical practices and communication with families were challenged by the massive influx of patients and restricted visitation policies, forcing us to improve our collaboration with other specialties and innovate with new communication channels. However, the picture was not all bright, and some of these achievements are already fading over time despite the ongoing pandemic and hospital crisis. In addition, the pandemic has demonstrated the need to improve the working conditions and well-being of critical care workers to cope with the current shortage of human resources. Despite the gloomy atmosphere, we remain optimistic. In this ten-key points review, we outline our vision on how to capitalize on the lasting impact of the pandemic to face future challenges and foster transformative changes of critical care for the better.

The role of international support programmes in global health security capacity building: A scoping review

Large scale public health emergencies such as COVID-19 demonstrate the importance of Global Health Security (GHS) and highlight the necessity of resilient public health systems capable of preparing for, detecting, managing, and recovering from such emergencies. Many international programmes support low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to strengthen public health capabilities for compliance with the International Health Regulations (IHR). This narrative review seeks to identify key characteristics and factors necessary for effective and sustainable IHR core capacity development, establishing roles for international support and some principles of good practice. We reflect on the "what" and the "how" of international support approaches, highlighting the importance of equitable partnerships and bi-directional learning, and inviting global introspection and re-framing of what capable and developed public health systems look like.

The impact of traffic control measures on the spread of COVID-19 within urban agglomerations based on a modified epidemic model

With the spatial structure of urban agglomerations, well-developed transportation networks and close economic ties can increase the risk of intercity transmission of infectious diseases. To reveal the epidemic transmission mechanism in urban agglomerations and to explore the effectiveness of traffic control measures, this study proposes an Urban-Agglomeration-based Epidemic and Mobility Model (UAEMM) based on the reality of urban transportation networks and population mobility factors. Since the model considers the urban population inflow, along with the active intracity population, it can be used to estimate the composition of urban cases. The model was applied to the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration, and the results show that the model can better simulate the transmission process of the urban agglomeration for a certain scale of epidemic. The number of cases within the urban agglomeration is higher than the number of cases imported into the urban agglomeration from external cities. The composition of cases in the core cities of the urban agglomeration changes with the adjustment of prevention and control measures. In contrast, the number of cases imported into the secondary cities is consistently greater than the number of cases transmitted within the cities. A traffic control measures discount factor is introduced to simulate the development of the epidemic in the urban agglomeration under the traffic control measures of the first-level response to major public health emergency, traffic blockades in infected areas, and public transportation shutdowns. If none of those traffic control measures had been taken after the outbreak of COVID-19, the number of cases in the urban agglomeration would theoretically have increased to 3879, which is 11.61 times the actual number of cases that occurred. If only one traffic control measure had been used alone, each of the three measures would have reduced the number of cases in the urban agglomeration to 30.19 %-57.44 % of the theoretical values of infection cases, with the best blocking effect coming from the first-level response to major public health emergency. Traffic control measures have a significant effect in interrupting the spread of COVID-19 in urban agglomerations. The methodology and main findings presented in this paper are of general interest and can also be used in studies in other countries for similar purposes to help understand the spread of COVID-19 in urban agglomerations.

The level of countries' preparedness to health risks during Covid-19 and pre-pandemic: the differential response to health systems building blocks and socioeconomic indicators

The global health security (GHS) Index assesses countries' level of preparedness to health risks. However, there is no evidence on how and whether the effects of health systems building blocks and socioeconomic indicators on the level of preparedness differ for low and high prepared countries. The aim of this study was to examine the contributions of health systems building blocks and socioeconomic indicators to show differences in the level of preparedness to health risks. The study also aimed to examine trends in the level of preparedness and the World Health Organization (WHO) regional differences before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. We used the 2021 GHS index report data and employed quantile regression, log-linear, double-logarithmic, and time-fixed effects models. As robustness checks, these functional form specifications corroborated with one another, and interval validity tests confirmed. The results show that increases in effective governance, supply chain capacity in terms of medicines and technologies, and health financing had positive effects on countries' level of preparedness to health risks. These effects were considerably larger for countries with higher levels of preparedness to health risks. The positive gradient trends signaled a sense of capacity on the part of countries with higher global health security. However, the health workforce including doctors, and health services including hospital beds, were not statistically significant in explaining variations in countries' level of preparedness. While economic factors had positive effects on the level of preparedness to health risks, their impacts across the distribution of countries' level of preparedness to health risks were mixed. The effects of Social Development Goals (SDGs) were greater for countries with higher levels of preparedness to health risks. The effect of the Human Development Index (HDI) was greatest for countries whose overall GHS index lies at the midpoint of the distribution of countries' level of preparedness. High-income levels were associated with a negative effect on the level of preparedness, especially if countries were in the lower quantiles across the distributions of preparedness. Relative to poor countries, middle- and high-income groups had lower levels of preparedness to health risks, an indication of a sense of complacency. We find the pandemic period (year 2021) was associated with a decrease in the level of preparedness to health risks in comparison to the pre-pandemic period. There were significant WHO regional differences. Apart from the Eastern Mediterranean, the rest of the regions were more prepared to health risks compared to Africa. There was a negative trend in the level of preparedness to health risks from 2019 to 2021 although regional differences in changes over time were not statistically significant. In conclusion, attempts to strengthen countries' level of preparedness to health shocks should be more focused on enhancing essentials such as supply chain capacity in terms of medicines and technologies; health financing, and communication infrastructure. Countries should also strengthen their already existing health workforce and health services. Together, strengthening these health systems essentials will be beneficial to less prepared countries where their impact we find to be weaker. Similarly, boosting SDGs, particularly health-related sub-scales, will be helpful to less prepared countries. Moreover, there is a need to curb complacency in preparedness to health risks during pandemics by high-income countries. The negative trend in the level of preparedness to health risks would suggest that there is a need for better preparedness during pandemics by conflating national health with global health risks. This will ensure the imperative of having a synergistic response to global health risks, which is understood by and communicated to all countries and regions.