Estimating global and regional disruptions to routine childhood vaccine coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: a modelling study

Exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on perceptions of national scheduled childhood vaccines among Māori and Pacific caregivers, whānau, and healthcare professionals in Aotearoa New Zealand

In Aotearoa New Zealand, there has been a marked decrease in the uptake of routine childhood vaccinations since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among Māori and Pacific children. This Māori and Pacific-centered research used an interpretive description methodology. We undertook culturally informed interviews and discussions with Māori and Pacific caregivers (n = 24) and healthcare professionals (n = 13) to understand their perceptions of routine childhood vaccines. Data were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis and privileged respective Māori and Pacific worldviews. Four themes were constructed. "We go with the norm" reflected how social norms, health personnel and institutions promoted (and sometimes coerced) participants' acceptance of routine vaccines before the pandemic. "Everything became difficult" explains how the pandemic added challenges to the daily struggles of whānau (extended family networks) and healthcare professionals. Participants noted how information sources influenced disease and vaccine perceptions and health behaviors. "It needed to have an ethnic-specific approach" highlighted the inappropriateness of Western-centric strategies that dominated during the initial pandemic response that did not meet the needs of Māori and Pacific communities. Participants advocated for whānau-centric vaccination efforts. "People are now finding their voice" expressed renewed agency among whānau about vaccination following the immense pressure to receive COVID-19 vaccines. The pandemic created an opportune time to support informed parental vaccine decision-making in a manner that enhances the mana (authority, control) of whānau. Māori and Pacific-led vaccination strategies should be embedded in immunization service delivery to improve uptake and immunization experiences for whānau.

Sustainable financing for vaccination towards advancing universal health coverage in the WHO African region: The strategic role of national health insurance

There is a growing political interest in health reforms in Africa, and many countries are choosing national health insurance as their main financing mechanism for universal health coverage. Although vaccination is an essential health service that can influence progress toward universal health coverage, it is not often prioritized by these national health insurance systems. This paper highlights the potential gains of integrating vaccination into the package of health services that is provided through national health insurance and recommends practical policy actions that can enable countries to harness these benefits at population level.

Health impact and cost-effectiveness of expanding routine immunization coverage in India through Intensified Mission Indradhanush

Many children do not receive a full schedule of childhood vaccines, yet there is limited evidence on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for improving vaccination coverage. Evidence is even scarcer on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for reaching 'zero-dose children', who have not received any routine vaccines. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of periodic intensification of routine immunization (PIRI), a widely applied strategy for increasing vaccination coverage. We focused on Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a large-scale PIRI intervention implemented in India in 2017-2018. In 40 sampled districts, we measured the incremental economic cost of IMI using primary data, and used controlled interrupted time-series regression to estimate the incremental vaccination doses delivered. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using the Lives Saved Tool and reported cost-effectiveness from immunization programme and societal perspectives. We found that, in sampled districts, IMI had an estimated incremental cost of 2021US$13.7 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.6 to 17.4) million from an immunization programme perspective and increased vaccine delivery by an estimated 2.2 (-0.5 to 4.8) million doses over a 12-month period, averting an estimated 1413 (-350 to 3129) deaths. The incremental cost from a programme perspective was $6.21 per dose ($2.80 to dominated), $82.99 per zero-dose child reached ($39.85 to dominated), $327.63 ($147.65 to dominated) per DALY averted, $360.72 ($162.56 to dominated) per life-year saved and $9701.35 ($4372.01 to dominated) per under-5 death averted. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 1× per-capita GDP per DALY averted, IMI was estimated to be cost-effective with 90% probability. This evidence suggests IMI was both impactful and cost-effective for improving vaccination coverage, though there is a high degree of uncertainty in the results. As vaccination programmes expand coverage, unit costs may increase due to the higher costs of reaching currently unvaccinated children.

Low vaccine coverage and varicella outbreaks in Brazil - 2019-2022

The persistence of varicella outbreaks in Brazil has underscored the high concern with the low vaccine coverage in the last 4 years. Using publicly available data from the Brazilian Health System (SUS), this study analyzed varicella vaccine coverage and incidence trends from 2019 to 2022 in Brazilian States. Vaccine coverage decreased nationally in 2020, possibly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic's initial phase. In Bahia State, we have the persistence of varicella with an incidence rate of 3.0 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (higher incidence compared to other States) in 2023. Under 15 months children and young children (4-6 Years old) faced the highest risk, urging the importance of vaccination. Despite a monovalent varicella vaccine being available through Brazil's National Immunization Program (NIP), Bahia fell short of achieving the ≥95 % disease control target for coverage. The study highlight the importance of vaccines to prevent some infectious diseases, as varicella, in poor tropical regions. Addressing vaccine hesitancy and misinformation, and augmenting awareness campaigns, are important to achieve and sustain high vaccine coverage over 80% as WHO guidelines to obtain a safe rate of protection for Brazilian population (Brazil's national immunization program has a target of 95% coverage).

Health Planning in Times of COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: The Role of Its National Strategic Pandemic Management Committee

CONTEXT

Presenting the COVID-19 crisis as a pandemic misleadingly implies a certain homogeneity between the regions of the Globe in terms of their burden and reactions. However, from the outset of the crisis, countries presented different epidemiological realities and sometimes adopted divergent, even opposing measures. Curiously, the heterogeneity of responses persisted as scientific evidence accumulated about COVID-19 and the strategies for dealing with it.

CASE STUDY

This commentary aims to recount the specific experience of Burkina Faso, and how it reoriented its initial biomedical response into a multisectoral strategy. Burkina Faso set up a committee specifically to examine the effects not only of the pandemic, but also of the control measures. This committee was mandated to decompartmentalize the lens through which the COVID-19 was dealt with. It entered into dialogue with a level of stakeholders often overlooked during national health crisis: communities. As a member of this "National Committee for Crisis Management of the Pandemic", one of the co-authors contributed to its orientations and has witnessed first-hand some of the challenges it faced.

RECOMMENDATIONS

This experience suggests that the project of extricating the field of public health from medicine is advancing in Burkina Faso. In order to manage future crises more effectively and across different sectors, there is an urgent need to establish state structures and to strengthen public health systems. States need coordination units that have the legitimacy, authority and resources required to mobilize a variety of actors at the community, national and international levels.

Global burden of pertussis in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the impact of pertussis on the global, regional, and national levels between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

Data on pertussis on a global scale from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We performed a secondary analysis to report the global epidemiology and disease burden of pertussis.

RESULTS

During the period spanning from 1990 to 2019, pertussis exhibited a steady global decline in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASYR), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR). Nevertheless, upon delving into an in-depth analysis of various regions, it was apparent that ASIR in southern sub-Saharan Africa, ASYR and ASDR in high-income North America, and ASDR in Western Europe and Australasia, were witnessing an upward trajectory. Moreover, a negative correlation was observed between the Socio‑demographic Index (SDI) and burden inflicted by pertussis. Notably, the incidence of pertussis was comparatively lower in men than in women, with 0-4-year-olds emerging as the most profoundly affected demographic.

CONCLUSION

The global pertussis burden decreased from 1990 to 2019. However, certain regions and countries faced an increasing disease burden. Therefore, urgent measures are required to alleviate the pertussis burden in these areas.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Confronting Inequalities and Bridging the Divide: A Retrospective Study Assessment of Country-Level COVID-19 Vaccine Equality with a Cox Regression Model

COVID-19 vaccination is vital in reducing illness, hospitalization, and mortality in the face of this global pandemic. However, COVID-19 vaccination rates worldwide remain below WHO public health targets, and persistent structural inequities reduce vaccine uptake likelihood among populations of low socioeconomic status. We conducted a cross-sectional study based on publicly available data from the Our World in Data project. We included all 124 countries with available open epidemic data and a population of more than 5 million. We used a Cox Regression Model, with population, population density, median age, human development index, GDP per capita, gender inequality index, healthcare access and quality index, hospital beds per thousand people, completion rate of primary education, infection cases of COVID-19 by the end of 2022, and death rate due to COVID-19 by the end of 2022 as predictors for model hazard rates of completion of 50% population vaccination. According to our study, countries with higher populations, higher population density, higher human development index, lower gender inequality index, and lower hospital beds per 1000 people had a higher hazard rate, which means they were more likely to achieve 50% population vaccination faster. By utilizing the time to achieve vaccination rate goals as our primary endpoint, we evaluated inequity from a dual perspective, considering both the differences in vaccination rates and the duration required to attain them. Consequently, this study employed survival analysis approaches to gain a comprehensive understanding of vaccine drivers and population-level trends nationally and inform all communities from a statistical perspective to prepare for health emergencies. Development-level standing modified the effects of equal access to COVID-19 vaccination on cumulative cases and mortality, for which countries of low or medium human development tended to fare worse in outcomes than high human development countries. As COVID-19 vaccination efforts evolve, healthcare professionals, scholars, and policymakers need to identify the structural impediments to equitable vaccination awareness, access, and uptake so that future vaccination campaigns are not impeded by these barriers to immunization. Recognizing the complex nature of this significant barrier, it is evident that no single statistical analysis method can comprehensively address all intricacies.

Trends and projections of age-appropriate vaccination coverage in 41 low- and middle- income countries in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2030

Introduction

Routine immunization programs have focused on increasing vaccination coverage, which is equally important for decreasing vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). We estimated the trends and projections of age-appropriate vaccination coverage at the regional and national levels, as well as place of residence and wealth index in LMICs.

Methods

In total, 174 nationally representative household surveys from 2000 to 2020 from 41 LMICs were included in this study. Bayesian hierarchical regression models were used to estimate trends and projections of age-appropriate vaccination.

Results

The trend in coverage of age-appropriate Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), third dose of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP3), third dose of polio (polio3), and measles-containing vaccine (MCV) increased rapidly from 2000 to 2020 in LMICs. Findings indicate substantial increases at the regional and national levels, and by area of residence and socioeconomic status between 2000 and 2030. The largest rise was observed in East Africa, followed by South and Southeast Asia. However, out of the 41 countries, only 10 countries are estimated to achieve 90% coverage of the BCG vaccine by 2030, five of DTP3, three of polio3, and none of MCV. Additionally, by 2030, wider pro-urban and -rich inequalities are expected in several African countries.

Conclusion

Significant progress in age-appropriate vaccination coverage has been made in LMICs from 2000 to 2020. Despite this, projections show many countries will not meet the 2030 coverage goals, with persistent urban-rural and socioeconomic disparities. Therefore, LMICs must prioritize underperforming areas and reduce inequalities through stronger health systems and increased community engagement to ensure high coverage and equitable vaccine access.

The Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Vaccination Coverage in Latin America and the Caribbean

BACKGROUND

Routine vaccination coverage in Latin America and the Caribbean declined prior to and during the coronavirus pandemic. We assessed the pandemic's impact on national coverage levels and analyzed whether financial and inequality indicators, immunization policies, and pandemic policies were associated with changes in national and regional coverage levels.

METHODOLOGY

We compared first- and third-dose coverage of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus-containing vaccine (DTPcv) with predicted coverages using time series forecast modeling for 39 LAC countries and territories. Data were from the PAHO/WHO/UNICEF Joint Reporting Form. A secondary analysis of factors hypothesized to affect coverages during the pandemic was also performed.

RESULTS

In total, 31 of 39 countries and territories (79%) had greater-than-predicted declines in DTPcv1 and DTPcv3 coverage during the pandemic, with 9 and 12 of these, respectively, falling outside the 95% confidence interval. Within-country income inequality (i.e., Gini coefficient) was associated with significant declines in DTPcv1 coverage, and cross-country income inequality was associated with declines in DTPcv1 and DTPcv3 coverages. Observed absolute and relative inequality gaps in DTPcv1 and DTPcv3 coverage between extreme country quintiles of income inequality (i.e., Q1 vs. Q5) were accentuated in 2021, as compared with the 2019 observed and 2021 predicted values. We also observed a trend between school closures and greater-than-predicted declines in DTPcv3 coverage that approached statistical significance (p = 0.06).

CONCLUSION

The pandemic exposed vaccination inequities in LAC and significantly impacted coverage levels in many countries. New strategies are needed to reattain high coverage levels.

The Association between Parental Child Vaccination Refusal Rate and the Impact of Mass Vaccination against COVID-19 in Kazakhstan: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis with Predictive Modelling of Nationwide Data Sources from 2013 to 2022

Despite well-established evidence supporting vaccination efficacy in reducing morbidity and mortality among infants and children, there is a global challenge with an increasing number of childhood vaccination refusals. This issue has intensified, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study aims to forecast mandatory childhood vaccination refusal trends in Kazakhstan until 2030, assessing the impact of mass COVID-19 vaccination on these rates. Utilizing annual official statistical data from 2013 to 2022 provided by the Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan, the study reveals a significant surge in refusals during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods, reaching record levels of 42,282 cases in 2021 and 44,180 cases in 2022. Notably, refusal rates sharply rose in specific regions, like Aktobe (13.9 times increase) and Atyrau (4.29 times increase), emphasizing the need for increased public healthcare attention in these areas. However, despite a decade of data, our forecasting analysis indicates a lack of volatility in childhood vaccine refusal trends for all vaccine types up to 2030, highlighting the statistical significance of the obtained results. The increasing trend in vaccine refusals underscores the necessity to enhance crisis response and support health initiatives, particularly in regions where a substantial rise in refusals has been observed in recent years.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

A Psychometric Study of the Arabic Version of the "Searching for Hardships and Obstacles to Shots (SHOT)" Instrument for Use in Saudi Arabia

Vaccines are considered one of the top 10 public health achievements of the 20th century and the most cost-effective public health intervention to overcome diseases and disease-associated mortality. This study translated the "Searching for Hardships and Obstacles to Shots" (SHOT) instrument from English to Arabic and conducted a psychometric evaluation of the Arabic version to measure parental barriers to childhood immunization. The cross-sectional study utilized multistage cluster random sampling to recruit parents visiting 70 primary health centers in Jizan. Scale translation and cultural adaptation were used to translate the SHOT survey into Arabic. The survey revealed that the best-factor model was a one-factor solution for "barriers to child immunization." The first principal component explained the highest variance (56.22%), and subsequent components explained decreasing percentages of variance. The third principal component explained the decreased variance (4.61%), and subsequent components explained the decreasing percentages of variance. The overall reliability (determined by Cronbach's alpha) was 0.96. The strong internal consistency of the Arabic version of the SHOT instrument (as indicated by the high Cronbach's alpha coefficients) indicates that researchers and practitioners can confidently use this scale to measure parents' attitudes toward and perceptions of vaccinations. Furthermore, the study results will help policymakers develop programs or interventional initiatives to overcome these barriers.

Global vaccine coverage and childhood survival estimates: 1990-2019

Objective

To quantify the association between reduction in child mortality and routine immunization across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We used child mortality and vaccine coverage data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used a modified child survival framework and applied a mixed-effects regression model to estimate the reduction in deaths in children younger than 5 years associated with eight vaccines.

Findings

Between 1990 and 2019, the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), measles, rotavirus and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccines were significantly associated with an estimated 86.9 (95% confidence interval, CI: 57.2 to 132.4) million fewer deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide. This decrease represented a 24.2% (95% CI: 19.8 to 28.9) reduction in deaths relative to a scenario without vaccines. The DTP and measles vaccines averted 46.7 (95% CI: 30.0 to 72.7) million and 37.9 (95% CI: 25.4 to 56.8) million deaths, respectively. Of the total reduction in child mortality associated with vaccines, 84.2% (95% CI: 83.0 to 85.1) occurred in 73 countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, with an estimated 45.4 (95% CI: 29.8 to 69.2) million fewer deaths from 2000 to 2019. The largest reductions in deaths associated with these four vaccines were in India, China, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Bangladesh (in order of the size of reduction).

Conclusion

Vaccines continue to reduce childhood mortality significantly, especially in Gavi-supported countries, emphasizing the need for increased investment in routine immunization programmes.

Pertussis epidemic in Denmark, August 2023 to February 2024

We report a record high pertussis epidemic in Denmark since August 2023. Highest incidence was in adolescents, while peak incidence in infants was lower vs previous epidemics in 2019 and 2016. Among infants aged 0-2 months, over half (29/48) were hospitalised and one infant died, underlining the disease severity in the youngest. To protect infants, pertussis vaccination in pregnant women was introduced in January 2024 in the national vaccination programme. Improved vaccination surveillance in pregnant women is being implemented.

Systematic review of social determinants of childhood immunisation in low- and middle-income countries and equity impact analysis of childhood vaccination coverage in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Nigeria has a high proportion of the world's underimmunised children. We estimated the inequities in childhood immunisation coverage associated with socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and healthcare characteristics among children aged 12-23 months in Nigeria using a social determinants of health perspective.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review to identify the social determinants of childhood immunisation associated with inequities in vaccination coverage among low- and middle-income countries. Using the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), we conducted multiple logistic regression to estimate the association between basic childhood vaccination coverage (1-dose BCG, 3-dose DTP-HepB-Hib (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type B), 3-dose polio, and 1-dose measles) and socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and healthcare characteristics in Nigeria.

RESULTS

From the systematic review, we identified the key determinants of immunisation to be household wealth, religion, and ethnicity for socioeconomic characteristics; region and place of residence for geographic characteristics; maternal age at birth, maternal education, and household head status for maternal characteristics; sex of child and birth order for child characteristics; and antenatal care and birth setting for healthcare characteristics. Based of the 2018 Nigeria DHS analysis of 6,059 children aged 12-23 months, we estimated that basic vaccination coverage was 31% (95% CI: 29-33) among children aged 12-23 months, whilst 19% (95% CI:18-21) of them were zero-dose children who had received none of the basic vaccines. After controlling for background characteristics, there was a significant increase in the odds of basic vaccination by household wealth (AOR: 3.21 (2.06, 5.00), p < 0.001) for the wealthiest quintile compared to the poorest quintile, antenatal care of four or more antenatal care visits compared to no antenatal care (AOR: 2.87 (2.21, 3.72), p < 0.001), delivery in a health facility compared to home births (AOR 1.32 (1.08, 1.61), p = 0.006), relatively older maternal age of 35-49 years compared to 15-19 years (AOR: 2.25 (1.46, 3.49), p < 0.001), and maternal education of secondary or higher education compared to no formal education (AOR: 1.79 (1.39, 2.31), p < 0.001). Children of Fulani ethnicity in comparison to children of Igbo ethnicity had lower odds of receiving basic vaccinations (AOR: 0.51 (0.26, 0.97), p = 0.039).

CONCLUSIONS

Basic vaccination coverage is below target levels for all groups. Children from the poorest households, of Fulani ethnicity, who were born in home settings, and with young mothers with no formal education nor antenatal care, were associated with lower odds of basic vaccination in Nigeria. We recommend a proportionate universalism approach for addressing the immunisation barriers in the National Programme on Immunization of Nigeria.

Strategies for Improving Vaccine Communication and Uptake

Vaccines have led to a significant decrease in rates of vaccine-preventable diseases and have made a significant impact on the health of children. However, some parents express concerns about vaccine safety and the necessity of vaccines. The concerns of parents range from hesitancy about some immunizations to refusal of all vaccines. This clinical report provides information about the scope and impact of the problem, the facts surrounding common vaccination concerns, and the latest evidence regarding effective communication techniques for the vaccine conversation. After reading this clinical report, readers can expect to: Understand concepts and underlying determinants of vaccine uptake and vaccine hesitancy.Understand the relationship between vaccine hesitancy and costs of preventable medical care.Recognize and address specific concerns (eg, vaccine safety) with caregivers when hesitancy is present.

Preparing healthcare facilities in sub-Saharan Africa for future outbreaks: insights from a multi-country digital self-assessment of COVID-19 preparedness

BACKGROUND

Despite previous experience with epidemics, African healthcare systems were inadequately prepared and substantially impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Limited information about the level of COVID-19 preparedness of healthcare facilities in Africa hampers policy decision-making to fight future outbreaks in the region, while maintaining essential healthcare services running.

METHODS

Between May-November 2020, we performed a survey study with SafeCare4Covid - a free digital self-assessment application - to evaluate the COVID-19 preparedness of healthcare facilities in Africa following World Health Organization guidelines. The tool assessed (i) COVID-19-related capabilities with 31 questions; and (ii) availability of essential medical supplies with a 23-supplies checklist. Tailored quality improvement plans were provided after assessments. Information about facilities' location, type, and ownership was also collected.

RESULTS

Four hundred seventy-one facilities in 11 African countries completed the capability assessment; 412 also completed the supplies checklist. The average capability score on a scale of 0-100 (n=471) was 58.0 (interquartile range 40.0-76.0), and the average supplies score (n=412) was 61.6 (39.0-83.0). Both scores were significantly lower in rural (capability score, mean 53.6 [95%CI:50.3-57.0]/supplies score, 59.1 [55.5-62.8]) versus urban facilities (capability score, 65.2 [61.7-68.7]/supplies score, 70.7 [67.2-74.1]) (P<0.0001 for both comparisons). Likewise, lower scores were found for public versus private clinics, and for primary healthcare centres versus hospitals. Guidelines for triage and isolation, clinical management of COVID-19, staff mental support, and contact tracing forms were largely missing. Handwashing stations were partially equipped in 33% of facilities. The most missing medical supply was COVID-19 specimen collection material (71%), while 43% of facilities did not have N95/FFP2 respirators and 19% lacked medical masks.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of public and private African facilities providing basic healthcare in rural areas, lacked fundamental COVID-19-related capabilities and life-saving personal protective equipment. Decentralization of epidemic preparedness efforts in these settings is warranted to protect healthcare workers and patients alike in future epidemics. Digital tools are of great value to timely measure and improve epidemic preparedness of healthcare facilities, inform decision-making, create a more stakeholder-broad approach and increase health-system resilience for future disease outbreaks.

A review of potential use cases for measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid-conjugate vaccines presented on microarray patches

As an innovative vaccine delivery technology, vaccine microarray patches could have a meaningful impact on routine immunization coverage in low- and middle-income countries, and vaccine deployment during epidemics and pandemics. This review of the potential use cases for a subset of vaccine microarray patches in various stages of clinical development, including measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid conjugate, highlights the breadth of their applicability to support immunization service delivery and their potential scope of utilization within national immunization programs. Definition and assessment of the use cases for this novel vaccine presentation provide important insights for vaccine developers and policymakers into the strengths of the public health and commercial value propositions, and the preparatory requirements for public health systems for the future rollout of vaccine microarray patches. An in-depth understanding of use cases for vaccine microarray patches serves as a foundational input to overcoming the remaining technical, regulatory, and financial challenges. Additional efforts will help to realize the potential of vaccine microarray patches as part of the global effort to improve the coverage and equity of national immunization programs.

Risk of vaccine preventable diseases in UK migrants: A serosurvey and concordance analysis

Background

Vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs) such as measles and rubella cause significant morbidity and mortality globally every year. The World Health Organization (WHO), reported vaccine coverage for both measles and rubella to be 71 % in 2019, indicating an immunity gap. Migrants in the EU/EEA may be at high risk of VPDs due to under-immunisation and poor living conditions. However, there are limited data on VPD seroprotection rates amongst migrants living in the United Kingdom (UK).

Methods

We conducted an exploratory cross-sectional serosurvey amongst a sample of adult migrants living in Leicester, UK to: (a) determine seroprotection rates for measles, varicella zoster, and rubella in this group; (b) identify risk factors associated with seronegativity and, (c) understand if self-reported vaccine or diseases history is an effective measure of seroprotection. Participants gave a blood sample and completed a questionnaire asking basic demographic details and vaccine and disease history for the three VPDs. We summarised the data using median and interquartile range (IQR) for non-parametric continuous variables and count and percentage for categorical variables. We used logistic regression to establish predictors of seroprotection against these diseases. We examined the reliability of self-reported vaccination/disease history for prediction of seroprotection through a concordance analysis.

Results

149 migrants were included in the analysis. Seroprotection rates were: varicella zoster 98 %, rubella 92.6 % and measles 89.3 %. Increasing age was associated with seroprotection (OR 1.07 95 % CI 1.01-1.13 for each year increase in age). Migrants from Africa and the Middle East (aOR 15.16 95 % CI 1.31 - 175.06) and South/East Asia and Pacific regions (aOR 15.43 95 %CI 2.38 - 100.00) are significantly more likely to be seroprotected against measles as compared to migrants from Europe and Central Asia. The proportions of migrants unsure about their vaccination and disease history combined were 53.0 % for measles; 57.7 % for rubella; 43.0 % for varicella. There was no agreement between self-reported vaccination/disease history and serostatus.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest lower levels of seroprotection against measles in migrants living in Leicester, UK, with younger migrants and those from Europe and Central Asia more likely to lack seroprotection. A high proportion of surveyed migrants were unaware of their vaccination/disease history and self-reported vaccine/disease was a poor predictor of seroprotection against VPDs which is important for clinical decision-making regarding catch-up vaccination in this population. Our results, although derived from a small sample, suggest that there may be gaps in seroimmunity for certain VPDs in particular migrant populations. These findings should inform future qualitative studies investigating barriers to vaccine uptake in migrants and population-level seroprevalence studies aimed at determining individualised risk profiles based on demographic and migration factors.

High prevalence of zero-dose children in underserved and special setting populations in Ethiopia using a generalize estimating equation and concentration index analysis

BACKGROUND

Globally, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) 2023 report, more than 14.3 million children in low- and middle-income countries, primarily in Africa and South-East Asia, are not receiving any vaccinations. Ethiopia is one of the top ten countries contributing to the global number of zero-dose children.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of zero-dose children and associated factors in underserved populations of Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional vaccine coverage survey was conducted in June 2022. The study participants were mothers of children aged 12-35 months. Data were collected using the CommCare application system and later analysed using Stata version 17. Vaccination coverage was estimated using a weighted analysis approach. A generalized estimating equation model was fitted to determine the predictors of zero-dose children. An adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and a p-value of 0.05 or less was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of zero-dose children in the study settings was 33.7% (95% CI: 34.9%, 75.7%). Developing and pastoralist regions, internally displaced peoples, newly formed regions, and conflict-affected areas had the highest prevalence of zero-dose children. Wealth index (poorest [AOR = 2.78; 95% CI: 1.70, 4.53], poorer [AOR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.02, 3.77]), single marital status [AOR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.7, 3.3], and maternal age (15-24 years) [AOR = 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 1.3] were identified as key determinant factors of zero-dose children in the study settings. Additional factors included fewer than four Antenatal care visits (ANC) [AOR = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.4], not receiving Postnatal Care (PNC) services [AOR = 2.1; 95% CI: 1.5, 3.0], unavailability of health facilities within the village [AOR = 3.7; 95% CI: 2.6, 5.4], women-headed household [AOR = 1.3; 95% CI:1.02, 1.7], low gender empowerment [AOR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.1], and medium gender empowerment [AOR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2, 2.5].

CONCLUSION

In the study settings, the prevalence of zero-dose children is very high. Poor economic status, disempowerment of women, being unmarried, young maternal age, and underutilizing antenatal or post-natal services are the important predictors. Therefore, it is recommended to target tailored integrated and context-specific service delivery approach. Moreover, extend immunization sessions opening hours during the evening/weekend in the city administrations to meet parents' needs.

Leveraging the CORE Group Partners Project Polio Infrastructure to Integrate COVID-19 Vaccination and Routine Immunization in South Sudan

INTRODUCTION

Countries with fragile health systems like South Sudan experienced significant impacts on routine immunization during the COVID-19 pandemic. Routine immunization in children aged younger than 1 year declined due to pandemic-related constraints and was compounded by the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine, which was met with hesitancy and reluctance. When South Sudan reported the first COVID-19 case in March 2020, the CORE Group Partners Project (CGPP) rapidly integrated the COVID-19 outbreak response into its ongoing polio eradication activities, leveraging the existing polio infrastructure and human resources. We describe the integration process, results, and challenges and detail the impact of the integration on coverage for both routine immunization and COVID-19 vaccinations.

METHODS

Efforts to integrate COVID-19 vaccination and routine immunization service delivery were implemented in 5 phases: assessing the need, developing multisector collaborations, developing a service delivery plan, assessing implementation readiness, and implementing and evaluating the service delivery plan. Integration efforts prioritized coordination, training vaccinators and volunteers, development of microplans, data management, and last-mile vaccine delivery. Integrated service delivery was implemented through "one-stop shop" sessions where communities accessed routine immunizations for children, COVID-19 vaccinations for adults, and other primary health services.

RESULTS

Integrating health service delivery contributed to improved routine immunization coverage among children, improved COVID-19 vaccination coverage among adults, reduced cost for service delivery, and increased access to more comprehensive health services in hard-to-reach communities. COVID-19 vaccinations were delivered at US$4.70 per dose, a cost substantially lower than other reported delivery mechanisms.

CONCLUSION

Integration can yield positive results and improve access to vaccination and other health services for communities. However, it requires clear policy guidelines, commitment, and strong collaboration. Challenges included resistance from stakeholders, overstretched human resources, and diversion of funding and attention from program areas, which were overcome through deliberate high-level advocacy, partnership, and intensified community engagement.

Key Learnings from the Development and Early Use of Global Guidance on the Integration of COVID-19 Vaccination into Broader Health Systems

More than 13.5 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses were delivered between 2021 and 2023 through a mix of delivery platforms, with mass vaccination campaigns being the main approach. In 2022, with the continued circulation of SARS-CoV2 and the need for periodic boosters being most likely, countries were required to plan for more sustainable approaches to provide COVID-19 vaccinations. In this context of uncertainty, a global tool for integrating COVID-19 vaccines into immunization programs and as part of broader health systems was published jointly by the WHO and UNICEF to respond to country needs. This paper summarizes the approach to, and lessons learned during, the development of a global guidance document and describes some examples of its early use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The guidance leveraged existing health system frameworks, proposed four steps for planning and implementing the COVID-19 vaccination integration journey, and identified investment areas. The development process maximized robust global stakeholder and country engagement, and the timeframe was aligned with donor funding windows to support countries with the integration of COVID-19 vaccination. The rapid dissemination of the guidance document allowed countries to ascertain their readiness for integrating COVID-19 vaccination and inform the development of national plans and funding applications. While progress has been made in specific areas (e.g., optimizing cold chain and logistics leveraging COVID-19 vaccination), in the context of decreasing demand for COVID-19 vaccines, reaching adult COVID-19 vaccine high-priority-use groups and engaging and coordinating with other health programs (beyond immunization) remain challenges, particularly in LMICs. We share the learning that despite the uncertainties of a pandemic, guidance documents can be developed and used within a short timeframe. Working in partnership with stakeholders within and beyond immunization towards a common objective is powerful and can allow progress to be made in terms of integrating health services and better preparing for future pandemics.

Trends of measles in Tanzania: A 5-year review of case-based surveillance data, 2018-2022

OBJECTIVES

Tanzania observed a gradual increase in the number of measles cases since 2019 with a large outbreak recorded during 2022. This study describes the trend of measles in Tanzania over a 5-year period from 2018-2022.

METHODS

This was a descriptive study conducted using routine measles case-based surveillance system including 195 councils of the United Republic of Tanzania.

RESULTS

Between 2018 and 2022 there were 12,253 measles cases reported. Out of 10,691 (87.25%) samples tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, 903 (8.4%) were measles immunoglobulin M positive. The highest number of laboratory-confirmed measles cases was in 2022 (64.8%), followed by 2020 (13.8%), and 2019 (13.5%). Out of 1279 unvaccinated cases, 213 (16.7%) were laboratory-confirmed measles cases compared to 77/723 (10.6%) who were partially vaccinated and 71/1121 (6.3%) who were fully vaccinated (P < 0.001). Children aged between 1-4 years constituted the most confirmed measles cases after laboratory testing, followed by those aged 5-9 years. There was a notable increase in the number of laboratory-confirmed measles cases in children <1 year and 10-14 years during 2022 compared to previous years. The vaccination coverage of the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) was maintained >90% since 2013 while MCV2 increased gradually reaching 88% in 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

Accumulation of susceptible children to measles due to suboptimal measles vaccination coverage over the years has resulted in an increase in the number of laboratory-confirmed measles cases in Tanzania with more cases recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic. Strengthening surveillance, routine immunization, and targeted strategies are key to achieving the immunity levels required to interrupt measles outbreaks.

Ongoing measles outbreak, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, December 2023 to February 2024

We report on an ongoing measles outbreak in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina with 141 cases notified between week 52 2023 and week 6 2024. Among those with known vaccination status, 97% were unvaccinated and the most affected group is children under the age of 5 years (n = 87) who were not vaccinated during the pandemic years. Sixty-eight cases were hospitalised, the most common complications were measles-related pneumonia and diarrhoea. The sequenced measles viruses from four cases belonged to genotype D8.

Maternal pertussis immunization and the blunting of routine vaccine effectiveness: a meta-analysis and modeling study

A key goal of pertussis control is to protect infants too young to be vaccinated, the age group most vulnerable to this highly contagious respiratory infection. In the last decade, maternal immunization has been deployed in many countries, successfully reducing pertussis in this age group. Because of immunological blunting, however, this strategy may erode the effectiveness of primary vaccination at later ages. Here, we systematically reviewed the literature on the relative risk (RR) of pertussis after primary immunization of infants born to vaccinated vs. unvaccinated mothers. The four studies identified had ≤6 years of follow-up and large statistical uncertainty (meta-analysis weighted mean RR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.38-1.32). To interpret this evidence, we designed a new mathematical model with explicit blunting mechanisms and evaluated maternal immunization's short- and long-term impact on pertussis transmission dynamics. We show that transient dynamics can mask blunting for at least a decade after rolling out maternal immunization. Hence, the current epidemiological evidence may be insufficient to rule out modest reductions in the effectiveness of primary vaccination. Irrespective of this potential collateral cost, we predict that maternal immunization will remain effective at protecting unvaccinated newborns, supporting current public health recommendations.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine vaccination coverage under varying prevalence Conditions: A cohort study in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has experienced various phases including outbreaks, a global health crisis, and eventual de-escalation from a public health emergency of international concern, significantly affecting the delivery and utilization of healthcare services. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coverage rate of routine immunization in children under varying prevalence conditions.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study in Beijing, China, utilizing stratified random sampling by birthdate to obtain a sample of 29,811 participants. Subjects were categorized into four cohorts based on when they became eligible for vaccination: the Pre-COVID Period cohort, the COVID-19 Low Epidemic Period cohort, the COVID-19 Surging Period cohort, and the COVID-19 Slowing Down Period cohort. A one-month follow-up was conducted. Cox proportional hazards model was employed to examine associations between the COVID-19 epidemic status and timely vaccination.

RESULTS

Participants age-eligible for vaccination during the COVID-19 Low Epidemic Period demonstrated higher rates of timely vaccination (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.15-1.22) compared to those eligible during the Pre-COVID Period. Conversely, those eligible during the COVID-19 Surging Period displayed lower rates (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.66-0.82). No significant difference in vaccination timeliness was observed for those eligible during the COVID-19 Slowing Down Period in comparison to the Pre-COVID Period (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.91-1.09). By the end of May 2023, DTP3 rate among eligible children during the COVID-19 Surging Period had surpassed 90%.

CONCLUSIONS

Significantly declining rates of timely vaccination were observed during the COVID-19 Surging Period, which lasted two months, but not during the nearly three-year-long COVID-19 Low Epidemic Period. An upward trend in vaccination timeliness followed, culminating in a return to baseline levels over the subsequent 3-4 months. Our findings suggested that the pandemic exerted a decreasing and recoverable impact on the coverage rate of routine immunizations in China.

A Scoping Review and Taxonomy of Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Models of COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic placed significant strain on many health systems and economies. Mitigation policies decreased health impacts but had major macroeconomic impact. This article reviews models combining epidemiological and macroeconomic projections to enable policy makers to consider both macroeconomic and health objectives.

METHODS

A scoping review of epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 was conducted, covering preprints, working articles, and journal publications. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data.

RESULTS

We found 80 articles modeling both the epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes of COVID-19. Model scope is often limited to the impact of lockdown on health and total gross domestic product or aggregate consumption and to high-income countries. Just 14% of models assess disparities or poverty. Most models fall under 4 categories: compartmental-utility-maximization models, epidemiological models with stylized macroeconomic projections, epidemiological models linked to computable general equilibrium or input-output models, and epidemiological-economic agent-based models. We propose a taxonomy comparing these approaches to guide future model development.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 identified have varying complexity and meet different modeling needs. Priorities for future modeling include increasing developing country applications, assessing disparities and poverty, and estimating of long-run impacts. This may require better integration between epidemiologists and economists.

Pandemic's influence on parents' attitudes and behaviors toward meningococcal vaccination

Invasive meningococcal disease is a life-threatening infection preventable through vaccination. Pediatric vaccination rates have declined during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This survey aimed to understand how parents' attitudes and behaviors have changed during the pandemic with regard to immunization and, more specifically, meningococcal vaccination. An online survey was emailed to parents of eligible children 0-4 years, following the selection process from UK, France, Germany, Italy, Brazil, Argentina, and Australia; and of adolescents 11-18 years from US. Data collection took place 19 January-16 February 2021. Quotas were set to ensure a representative sample. Eleven questions relating to general perceptions around vaccination and attitudes and behaviors toward meningitis vaccination were displayed. On 4,962 parents (average 35 years) participating in the survey, most (83%) believed important for their child to continue receiving recommended vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly half of routine vaccine appointments were delayed or canceled due to the pandemic, and 61% of respondents were likely to have their children catch up once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. 30% of meningitidis vaccination appointments were canceled or delayed during the pandemic, and 21% of parents did not intend to reschedule them because of lockdown/stay at home regulations, and fear of catching COVID-19 in public places. It is crucial to communicate clear instructions to health workers and the general population and to provide appropriate safety precautions in vaccination centers. This will help to maintain vaccination rates and limit infections to prevent future outbreaks.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coverage and timeliness of routine childhood vaccinations in the Gambia, 2015-2021

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread morbidity and mortality and resulted in the biggest setback in routine vaccinations in three decades. Data on the impact of the pandemic on immunisation in Africa are limited, in part, due to low-quality routine or administrative data. This study examined coverage and timeliness of routine childhood immunisation during the pandemic in The Gambia, a country with an immunisation system considered robust.

METHODS

We obtained prospective birth cohort data of 57 286 children in over 300 communities in two health and demographic surveillance system sites, including data from the pre-pandemic period (January 2015-February 2020) and the three waves of the pandemic period (March 2020-December 2021). We determined monthly coverage and timeliness (early and delayed) of the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine (HepB0) and the first dose of pentavalent vaccine (Penta1) during the different waves of the pandemic relative to the pre-pandemic period. We implemented a binomial interrupted time-series regression model.

RESULT

We observed no significant change in the coverage of HepB0 and Penta1 vaccinations from the pre-pandemic period up until the periods before the peaks of the first and second waves of the pandemic in 2020. However, there was an increase in HepB0 coverage before as well as after the peak of the third wave in 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic period (pre-third wave peak OR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.14; post-third wave period OR=2.20, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.92). There was some evidence that vaccination timeliness changed during specific periods of the pandemic. Early Penta1 vaccination decreased by 70% (OR=0.30, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.78) in the period before the second wave, and delayed HepB0 vaccination decreased by 47% (OR=0.53, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.97) after the peak of the third wave in 2021.

CONCLUSION

Despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, The Gambia's routine vaccination programme has defied the setbacks witnessed in other settings and remained resilient, with coverage increasing and timeliness improving during the second and third waves. These findings highlight the importance of having adequate surveillance systems to monitor the impact of large shocks to vaccination coverage and timeliness.

Routine pediatric vaccinations during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review of the global impact

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has put standard, routine childhood vaccinations at risk worldwide. The disruption in vaccine coverage has resulted in a negative impact on the health of children, with some races, ethnicities, age groups, areas of settlement, and parts of the world affected more than others. This literature review studied and examined the impact of COVID-19 on infant, child, and adolescent vaccinations. Retrospectively, the analysis showed a decline, delays, or interruptions in the coverage of vaccines during the pan-demic and a decline in some countries' pre-pandemic and post-pandemic eras. Necessary attempts and efforts should be made for these delayed and missed vaccinations, as failure to do so could put children's health at risk. Thus, priority should be directed at instituting catch-up programs to support vaccine uptake and decrease the probability of acquiring vaccine-preventable diseases.

Geospatial Analyses of Recent Household Surveys to Assess Changes in the Distribution of Zero-Dose Children and Their Associated Factors before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria

The persistence of geographic inequities in vaccination coverage often evidences the presence of zero-dose and missed communities and their vulnerabilities to vaccine-preventable diseases. These inequities were exacerbated in many places during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, due to severe disruptions to vaccination services. Understanding changes in zero-dose prevalence and its associated risk factors in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic is, therefore, critical to designing effective strategies to reach vulnerable populations. Using data from nationally representative household surveys conducted before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2018, and during the pandemic, in 2021, in Nigeria, we fitted Bayesian geostatistical models to map the distribution of three vaccination coverage indicators: receipt of the first dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP1), the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1), and any of the four basic vaccines (bacilli Calmette-Guerin (BCG), oral polio vaccine (OPV0), DTP1, and MCV1), and the corresponding zero-dose estimates independently at a 1 × 1 km resolution and the district level during both time periods. We also explored changes in the factors associated with non-vaccination at the national and regional levels using multilevel logistic regression models. Our results revealed no increases in zero-dose prevalence due to the pandemic at the national level, although considerable increases were observed in a few districts. We found substantial subnational heterogeneities in vaccination coverage and zero-dose prevalence both before and during the pandemic, showing broadly similar patterns in both time periods. Areas with relatively higher zero-dose prevalence occurred mostly in the north and a few places in the south in both time periods. We also found consistent areas of low coverage and high zero-dose prevalence using all three zero-dose indicators, revealing the areas in greatest need. At the national level, risk factors related to socioeconomic/demographic status (e.g., maternal education), maternal access to and utilization of health services, and remoteness were strongly associated with the odds of being zero dose in both time periods, while those related to communication were mostly relevant before the pandemic. These associations were also supported at the regional level, but we additionally identified risk factors specific to zero-dose children in each region; for example, communication and cross-border migration in the northwest. Our findings can help guide tailored strategies to reduce zero-dose prevalence and boost coverage levels in Nigeria.

Modifiable risk factors for diphtheria: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To identify modifiable risk factors for diphtheria and assess their strengths of association with the disease.

Methods

This review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. Electronic databases and grey literature were searched from inception until January 2023. Studies had to report on diphtheria cases and estimates of association for at least one potential risk factor or sufficient data to calculate these. The quality of non-ecological studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), while the quality of evidence was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria.

Results

The search yielded 37,705 papers, of which 29 were ultimately included. All the non-ecological studies were of moderate to high quality. Meta-analysis of 20 studies identified three factors increasing the risk of diphtheria: incomplete vaccination (<3 doses) (pooled odds ratio (POR) = 2.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.4-3.4); contact with a person with skin lesions (POR = 4.8, 95% CI = 2.1-10.9); and low knowledge of diphtheria (POR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.2-4.7). Contact with a case of diphtheria; sharing a bed or bedroom; sharing utensils, cups, and glasses; infrequent bathing; and low parental education were associated with diphtheria in multiple studies. Evidence for other factors was inconclusive. The quality of evidence was low or very low for all the risk factors.

Conclusions

Findings from the review suggest that countries seeking to control diphtheria need to strengthen surveillance, improve vaccination coverage, and increase people's knowledge of the disease. Future research should focus on understudied or inconclusive risk factors.

Analysis of global routine immunisation coverage shows disruption and stagnation during the first two-years of the COVID-19 pandemic with tentative recovery in 2022

Whilst it is now widely recognised that routine immunisation (RI) was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and further so in 2021, the extent of continued interruptions in 2022 and/or rebounds to previous trends remains unclear. We modelled country-specific RI trends using validated estimates of national coverage from the World Health Organisation and United Nation Children's Fund for 182 countries (accounting for > 97% of children globally), to project expected diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis-containing vaccine first-dose (DTP1), third-dose (DTP3) and measles-containing vaccine first-dose (MCV1) coverage for 2020-2022 based on pre-pandemic trends (from 2000 to 2019). We provide further evidence of peak pandemic immunisation disruption in 2021, followed by tentative recovery in 2022. We report a 3.4% (95 %CI: [2.5%; 4.4%]) decline in global DTP3 coverage in 2021 compared to 2000-2019 trends, from an expected 89.8% to reported 86.4%. This coverage gap reduced to a 2.7% (95 %CI: [1.8%; 3.6%]) decline in 2022, with reported coverage rising to 87.2%. Similar results were seen for DTP1 and MCV1. Whilst partial rebounds are encouraging, global coverage decline translates to a 17-year setback in RI to 2005 levels, and the majority of countries retain coverage at or lower than pre-pandemic levels. The Americas, Africa, and Asia were the most impacted regions; and low- and middle-income countries the most affected income groups. The number of annual Zero Dose (ZD) children - indicating those receiving no immunisations - increased from 12.1 million (M) globally in 2019 to a peak of 16.7 M in 2021, then reduced to 13.1 M in 2022. Overall, we estimate an excess of 8.8 M ZD children cumulatively in 2020-2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels. This work can be used as an objective baseline to inform future interventions to prioritise and target interventions, and facilitate catch-up of growing populations of under- and un-immunised children.

Estimates of the global burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2019

OBJECTIVES

Many countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) after 2011, following changes in recommended World Health Organization (WHO) vaccination strategies and external support. We evaluated the impact of these introductions.

METHODS

We estimated the country-specific, region-specific, and global Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) incidence during 1996-2019 using mathematical modeling, including routine and campaign vaccination coverage and seroprevalence data.

RESULTS

In 2019, WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions had the highest estimated CRS incidence (64 [95% confidence intervals (CI): 24-123] and 27 [95% CI: 4-67] per 100,000 live births respectively), where nearly half of births occur in countries that have introduced RCV. Other regions, where >95% of births occurred in countries that had introduced RCV, had a low estimated CRS incidence (<1 [95% CI: <1 to 8] and <1 [95% CI: <1 to 12] per 100,000 live births in South-East Asia [SEAR] and the Western Pacific [WPR] respectively, and similarly in Europe and the Americas). The estimated number of CRS births globally declined by approximately two-thirds during 2010-2019, from 100,000 (95% CI: 54,000-166,000) to 32,000 (95% CI: 13,000-60,000), representing a 73% reduction since 1996, largely following RCV introductions in WPR and SEAR, where the greatest reductions occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

Further reductions can occur by introducing RCV in remaining countries and maintaining high RCV coverage.

Global Vaccine Access Demands Combating Both Inequity And Hesitancy

The world's population suffered from lack of access to COVID-19 vaccines. Although inequities in vaccine availability for low- and middle-income countries are widely cited as a component of this lack of access, there is a related but less discussed component: vaccine refusal or hesitancy. Regarding the first component (global vaccine inequities), there are multiple dimensions to this topic and its causes, but for low- and middle-income countries, the most glaring one resulted from upstream science policies that prioritized speed and innovation at the expense of technologies that could be produced by low- and middle-income country vaccine producers. Regarding the second component (vaccine refusal or hesitancy), as COVID-19 waves swept across the United States in 2021, thousands of unvaccinated Americans perished from refusing COVID-19 immunizations. These deaths occurred because of an expanding antiscience ecosystem that now extends into low- and middle-income countries and could block the uptake of new vaccines or routine childhood immunizations. Future vaccine policies must address both elements of global access and their political identities. This recommendation reflects the author's experiences as a vaccine scientist who both develops affordable COVID-19 and neglected disease vaccines and lives on the front lines combating vaccine refusal.

'Unable to have a proper conversation over the phone about my concerns': a multimethods evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on routine childhood vaccination services in London, UK

OBJECTIVES

Investigating the completion rate of 12-month vaccinations and parental perspectives on vaccine services during COVID-19.

STUDY-DESIGN

Service evaluation including parental questionnaire.

METHODS

Uptake of 12-month vaccinations in three London general practices during three periods: pre-COVID (1/3/2018-28/2/2019, n = 826), during COVID (1/3/2019-28/2/2020, n = 775) and post-COVID first wave (1/8/2020-31/1/2021, n = 419). Questionnaire of parents whose children were registered at the practices (1/4/2019-1/22/2021, n = 1350).

RESULTS

Comparing pre-COVID and both COVID cohorts, the completion rates of 12-month vaccines were lower. Haemophilus influenzae type B/meningococcal group C (Hib/MenC) vaccination uptake was 5.6% lower (89.0% vs 83.4%, P=<0.001), meningococcal group B (MenB) booster uptake was 4.4% lower (87.3% vs 82.9%, P = 0.006), pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) booster uptake was 6% lower (88.0% vs 82.0%, P < 0.001) and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake was 5.2% lower (89.1% vs 83.9%, P = 0.003). Black/Black-British ethnicity children had increased odds of missing their 12-month vaccinations compared to White ethnicity children (adjusted odds ratio 0.43 [95% confidence interval 0.24-0.79, P = 0.005; 0.36 [0.20-0.65], P < 0.001; 0.48 [0.27-0.87], P = 0.01; 0.40 [0.22-0.73], P = 0.002; for Hib/MenC, MenB booster, PCV booster and MMR. Comparing pre-COVID and COVID periods, vaccinations coded as not booked increased for MMR (10%), MenB (7%) and PCV booster (8%). Parents reported changes to vaccination services during COVID-19, including difficulties booking and attending appointments and lack of vaccination reminders.

CONCLUSION

A sustained decrease in 12-month childhood vaccination uptake disproportionally affected Black/Black British ethnicity infants during the first wave of the pandemic. Vaccination reminders and availability of healthcare professionals to discuss parental vaccine queries are vital to maintaining uptake.

Childhood vaccination coverage and regional differences in Swiss birth cohorts 2012-2021: Are we on track?

AIMS

Many western countries are challenged by delayed and insufficient vaccination coverage rates in children, and thus missing WHO coverage targets. This study aimed to estimate vaccination coverage and timeliness in Swiss children over a decade. Furthermore, we evaluated the impact of COVID-19, regional variations, and the adherence to the amended vaccination schedule in 2019.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study with Swiss health insurance claims data including birth cohorts 2012-2021 of children continuously observed until ages 13, 25, and 48 months respectively. We used population-weighted proportions and time-to-event analyses to describe coverage and timeliness of diphtheria/tetanus/pertussis/poliomyelitis/haemophilus influenzae type b (DTaP-IPV-Hib), measles/mumps/rubella (MMR), hepatitis B (HBV), pneumococcal (PCV), and meningococcal (MCV) vaccinations according to the national schedule. The potential impact of COVID-19 and vaccination schedule adherence were evaluated descriptively. Logistic regression was used to investigate regional factors potentially associated with non-vaccination.

RESULTS

120,073 children, representing between 12 and 17 % of all Swiss children born in corresponding years, were included. Coverage remained stable or improved over the years. The 2019 amendment of the national immunization schedule was associated with an increase of ~10 % points in full coverage in Swiss children for DTaP-IPV-Hib, MMR and HBV despite the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, full vaccination coverage remained below 90 % with many vaccination series being delayed or not completed. The comparison across the different vaccines revealed large differences in coverage. Moreover, we observed large regional differences in non-vaccination with children living in rural and German-speaking areas more likely to be entirely unvaccinated.

CONCLUSION

Full vaccination coverage in Swiss children is still below 90 % with many vaccinations administered delayed. Given regional differences, missed or delayed booster vaccinations, and differences in vaccine-specific acceptability, more effort may be needed to achieve national vaccination targets.

Routine immunization experience and practices during the COVID-19 pandemic of caregivers attending a tertiary hospital in Cape Town

Introduction

Immunizations are successful, cost-effective interventions for the control of infectious diseases and preventing mortality. Lockdown restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic had adverse effects on child-health including access to immunizations. Our study aimed to document immunization status, describe caregiver experiences around accessing immunizations during the COVID-19 pandemic and identify any significant factors associated with immunization status.

Methods

Caregivers, with children between the ages of 10 to 33 months, attending Tygerberg Hospital Paediatric Department were invited to complete an anonymous survey from 15th September-15th December 2022. Data was captured using a REDCap questionnaire and analysed using Stata Version 17.

Results

171 caregivers completed the survey. Immunizations were up to date in 81%. Most (155, 88%) agreed it was important to immunize their child. A third of caregivers (55) felt it was unsafe to attend the clinic and 37% (62) agreed it was difficult to attend. Caregivers receiving a social grant (p = 0.023) or who felt safe attending clinic (p = 0.053) were more likely to be up to date with immunizations. Three-quarters (128, 78%) were aware of recommendations to continue immunization. These caregivers were more likely to think it was important to immunize on time (p = 0.003) and to receive family encouragement (p = 0.001). Caregivers were more likely to attend clinic if they felt it was important to vaccinate on time (p < 0.001) or felt safe attending clinic (p = 0.036).

Conclusion

Immunization rates were higher than expected but below global targets. Although caregivers feel immunizations are important, unknowns still instilled fear of attending clinics. Social factors such as family support and social grants improve vaccine seeking behaviour.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low-income and middle-income countries: mathematical modelling and early-stage economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Microarray patches (MAPs) are a promising technology being developed to reduce barriers to vaccine delivery based on needles and syringes (N&S). To address the evidence gap on the public health value of applying this potential technology to immunisation programmes, we evaluated the health impact on measles burden and cost-effectiveness of introducing measles-rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) in 70 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

We used an age-structured dynamic model of measles transmission and vaccination to project measles cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years during 2030-2040. Compared with the baseline scenarios with continuing current N&S-based practice, we evaluated the introduction of MR-MAPs under different measles vaccine coverage projections and MR-MAP introduction strategies. Costs were calculated based on the ingredients approach, including direct cost of measles treatment, vaccine procurement and vaccine delivery. Model-based burden and cost estimates were derived for individual countries and country income groups. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of introducing MR-MAPs to health opportunity costs.

RESULTS

MR-MAP introduction could prevent 27%-37% of measles burden between 2030 and 2040 in 70 LMICs, compared with the N&S-only immunisation strategy. The largest health impact could be achieved under lower coverage projection and accelerated introduction strategy, with 39 million measles cases averted. Measles treatment cost is a key driver of the net cost of introduction. In countries with a relatively higher income, introducing MR-MAPs could be a cost-saving intervention due to reduced treatment costs. Compared with country-specific health opportunity costs, introducing MR-MAPs would be cost-effective in 16%-81% of LMICs, depending on the MR-MAPs procurement prices and vaccine coverage projections.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs can be a cost-effective strategy to revitalise measles immunisation programmes with stagnant uptake and reach undervaccinated children. Sustainable introduction and uptake of MR-MAPs has the potential to improve vaccine equity within and between countries and accelerate progress towards measles elimination.

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and response on routine childhood vaccination coverage and equity in Northern Nigeria: a mixed methods study

BACKGROUND

Based on 2021 data, Nigeria had the second largest number of zero-dose children globally estimated at over 2.25 million, concentrated in the northern part of the country due to factors some of which are sociocultural. This study analysed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and response on childhood vaccination in Northern Nigeria.

METHODS

Using a mixed methods sequential study design in the most populous northern states of Kaduna and Kano, quantitative routine immunisation data for the period 2018-2021 and qualitative data collected through 16 focus group discussions and 40 key informant interviews were used. An adaptation of the socioecological model was used as a conceptual framework. Mean vaccination coverages and test of statistical difference in childhood vaccination data were computed. Qualitative data were coded and analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Mean Penta 1 coverage declined in Kaduna from 69.88% (SD=21.02) in 2018 to 59.54% (SD=19.14%) by 2021, contrasting with Kano where mean Penta 1 coverage increased from 51.87% (SD=12.61) to 56.32% (SD=17.62%) over the same period. Outreaches and vaccination in urban areas declined for Kaduna state by 10% over the pandemic period in contrast to Kano state where it showed a marginal increase. The two states combined had an estimated 25% of the country's zero-dose burden in 2021. Lockdowns, lack of transport and no outreaches which varied across the states were some of the factors mentioned by participants to have negatively impacted childhood vaccination. Special vaccination outreaches were among the recommendations for ensuring continued vaccination through a future pandemic.

CONCLUSION

While further interrogating the accuracy of denominator estimates for the urban population, incorporating findings into pandemic preparedness and response will ensure uninterrupted childhood vaccination during emergencies. Addressing the identified issues will be critical to achieving and sustaining universal childhood vaccination in Nigeria.

Empowering Low- and Middle-Income Countries to Combat AMR by Minimal Use of Antibiotics: A Way Forward

Antibiotic overuse poses a critical global health concern, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where access to quality healthcare and effective regulatory frameworks often fall short. This issue necessitates a thorough examination of the factors contributing to antibiotic overuse in LMICs, including weak healthcare infrastructure, limited access to quality services, and deficiencies in diagnostic capabilities. To address these challenges, regulatory frameworks should be implemented to restrict non-prescription sales, and accessible point-of-care diagnostic tools must be emphasized. Furthermore, the establishment of effective stewardship programs, the expanded use of vaccines, and the promotion of health systems, hygiene, and sanitation are all crucial components in combating antibiotic overuse. A comprehensive approach that involves collaboration among healthcare professionals, policymakers, researchers, and educators is essential for success. Improving healthcare infrastructure, enhancing access to quality services, and strengthening diagnostic capabilities are paramount. Equally important are education and awareness initiatives to promote responsible antibiotic use, the implementation of regulatory measures, the wider utilization of vaccines, and international cooperation to tackle the challenges of antibiotic overuse in LMICs.

Catastrophic health expenditure during the COVID-19 pandemic in five countries: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems in 2020, but it is unclear how financial hardship due to out-of-pocket (OOP) health-care costs was affected. We analysed catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in 2020 in five countries with available household expenditure data: Belarus, Mexico, Peru, Russia, and Viet Nam. In Mexico and Peru, we also conducted an analysis of drivers of change in CHE in 2020 using publicly available data.

METHODS

In this time-series analysis, we defined CHE as when OOP health-care spending exceeds 10% of consumption expenditure. Data for 2004-20 were obtained from individual and household level survey microdata (available for Mexico and Peru only), and tabulated data from the National Statistical Committee of Belarus and the World Bank Health Equity and Financial Protection Indicator database (for Viet Nam and Russia). We compared 2020 CHE with the CHE predicted from historical trends using an ensemble model. This method was also used to assess drivers of CHE: insurance coverage, OOP expenditure, and consumption expenditure. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to investigate the role of stay-at-home orders in March, 2020 in changes in health-care use and sector (ie, private vs public).

FINDINGS

In Mexico, CHE increased to 5·6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·1-6·2) in 2020, higher than predicted (3·2%, 2·5-4·0). In Belarus, CHE was 13·5% (11·8-15·2) in 2020, also higher than predicted (9·7%, 7·7-11·3). CHE was not different than predicted by past trends in Russia, Peru, and Viet Nam. Between March and April, 2020, health-care visits dropped by 4·6 (2·6-6·5) percentage points in Mexico and by 48·3 (40·6-56·0) percentage points in Peru, and the private share of health-care visits increased by 7·3 (4·3-10·3) percentage points in Mexico and by 20·7 (17·3-24·0) percentage points in Peru.

INTERPRETATION

In three of the five countries studied, health systems either did not protect people from the financial risks of health care or did not maintain health-care access in 2020, an indication of health systems failing to maintain basic functions. If the 2020 response to the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated shifts to private health-care use, policies to cover costs in that sector or motivate patients to return to the public sector are needed to maintain financial risk protection.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating the effects of COVID-19 on essential health services utilization in Uganda and Bangladesh using data from routine health information systems

Background

Since March 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been a major shock to health systems across the world. We examined national usage patterns for selected basic, essential health services, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda and Bangladesh, to determine whether COVID-19 affected reporting of service utilization and the use of health services in each country.

Methods

We used routine health information system data since January 2017 to analyze reporting and service utilization patterns for a variety of health services. Using time series models to replicate pre-COVID-19 trajectories over time we estimated what levels would have been observed if COVID-19 had not occurred during the pandemic months, starting in March 2020. The difference between the observed and predicted levels is the COVID-19 effect on health services.

Results

The time trend models for Uganda and Bangladesh closely replicated the levels and trajectories of service utilization during the 38 months prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results indicate that COVID-19 had severe effects across all services, particularly during the first months of the pandemic, but COVID-19 impacts on health services and subsequent recovery varied by service type. In general, recovery to expected levels was slow and incomplete across the most affected services.

Conclusion

Our analytical approach based on national information system data could be very useful as a form of surveillance for health services disruptions from any cause leading to rapid responses from health service managers and policymakers.

Systematic Mapping of Research on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in Children in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Decennial Scientometric Analysis

Vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) remain a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The high burden of VPDs in this region necessitates the need for continued investigation and intervention. This paper presents a bibliometric analysis of research on VPDs in children in sub-Saharan Africa in the last 10 years to capture the current state of research in the field. This study used a systematic search for articles published between 2013 and 2022 in the Web of Science Core Collection database and, subsequently, scientometric techniques for data analyses and interpretation. Annual scientific production of publications on the research of VPDs in children in sub-Saharan Africa increased from 2013 to 2019 and then gradually declined. South Africa had the most VPD studies (n = 148; 16.2%), followed by Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, The Gambia, Malawi, Ethiopia, and the Republic of Congo. The Vaccine journal published the most. The Pan African Medical Journal was the most frequent destination journal based in Africa. The commonly studied pathogens were Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae. Research productivity increased exponentially in the pre-COVID era and declined in the past two years, so more VPD research in this region is needed.

Vaccination coverage in rural Burkina Faso under the effects of COVID-19: evidence from a panel study in eight districts

BACKGROUND

Improving infant immunization completion and promoting equitable vaccination coverage are crucial to reducing global under-5 childhood mortality. Although there have been hypotheses that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic would decrease the delivery of health services and immunization campaigns in low- and middle-income countries, the available evidence is still inconclusive. We conducted a study in rural Burkina Faso to assess changes in vaccination coverage during the pandemic. A secondary objective was to examine long-term trends in vaccination coverage throughout 2010-2021.

METHODS

Using a quasi-experimental approach, we conducted three rounds of surveys (2019, 2020, 2021) in rural Burkina Faso that we pooled with two previous rounds of demographic and household surveys (2010, 2015) to assess trends in vaccination coverage. The study population comprised infants aged 0-13 months from a sample of 325 households randomly selected in eight districts (n = 736). We assessed vaccination coverage by directly observing the infants' vaccination booklet. Effects of the pandemic on infant vaccination completion were analyzed using multi-level logistic regression models with random intercepts at the household and district levels.

RESULTS

A total of 736 child-year observations were included in the analysis. The proportion of children with age-appropriate complete vaccination was 69.76% in 2010, 55.38% in 2015, 50.47% in 2019-2020, and 64.75% in 2021. Analyses assessing changes in age-appropriate full-vaccination coverage before and during the pandemic show a significant increase (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.14-2.85). Our models also confirmed the presence of heterogeneity in full vaccination between health administrative districts. The pandemic could have increased inequities in infant vaccination completion between these districts. The analyses suggest no disruption in age-appropriate full vaccination due to COVID-19. Our findings from our sensitivity analyses to examine trends since 2010 did not show any steady trends.

CONCLUSION

Our findings in Burkina Faso do not support the predicted detrimental effects of COVID-19 on the immunization schedule for infants in low- and middle-income countries. Analyses comparing 2019 and 2021 show an improvement in age-appropriate full vaccination. Regardless of achieving and sustaining vaccination coverage levels in Burkina Faso, this should remain a priority for health systems and political agendas.

COVID-19 vaccine uptake and associated factors among adolescents and youths: Findings and implications for future vaccination programmes

Adolescents and youths are a key part of the population that needs to be protected against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This is because they are more likely to spread the virus to vulnerable individuals. In view of these concerns, this study investigated the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines and associated factors among adolescents and youths attending secondary schools in Zambia. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 1500 school-going adolescents in Lusaka from September 2022 to November 2022. Overall, 1409 participants took part giving a response rate of 94%. Only 29.2% (n = 411) of the participants were vaccinated against COVID-19 at the time of the study. Compared to their unvaccinated counterparts, vaccinated adolescents and youths scored higher for knowledge (66.2% vs 57.8%) and attitudes (76.7% vs 39.4%) regarding COVID-19 vaccines. Healthcare workers, family/friends and social media were key sources of information regarding the vaccine. Factors associated with increased vaccine uptake were positive attitudes (AOR = 33.62, 95% CI: 19.92-56.73), indicating it was stressful to follow COVID-19 preventive measures (AOR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.09-1.99), participants in Grade 12 (AOR = 3.39, 95% CI: 1.94-5.91), Grade 11 (AOR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.94-5.91), Grade 10 (AOR = 3.48, 95% CI: 1.98-6.11) and Grade 9 (AOR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.74-5.32) compared to Grade 8. This study found a relatively low uptake of COVID-19 vaccines among adolescents and youths in Zambia. There is a need to provide adequate strategies to address knowledge and attitude gaps regarding COVID-19 vaccines to improve uptake and reduce future morbidity and mortality.

Vaccination coverage in children under one year of age and associated socioeconomic factors: maps of spatial heterogeneity

OBJECTIVE

to analyze vaccination coverage spatial distribution in children under one year old and the socioeconomic factors associated with meeting the recommended goals in Minas Gerais.

METHODS

an ecological study, carried out in 853 municipalities in the state. Pentavalent, poliomyelitis, meningococcal conjugate, yellow fever, rotavirus, and 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination coverage were analyzed. Scan statistics and multiple logistic regression were performed to identify spatial clusters and factors associated with meeting coverage goals.

RESULTS

spatial analysis revealed clusters with risk of low coverage for all vaccines. Number of families with per capita income of up to 1/2 wage, Minas Gerais Social Responsibility Index and percentage of the poor or extremely poor population were associated with meeting the established goals.

CONCLUSIONS

the results are useful for designing interventions regarding the structuring of vaccination services and the implementation of actions to increase vaccination coverage in clusters with less propensity to vaccinate.

Successful outcomes for patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis despite civil unrest and COVID-19 in Haiti

Globally, treatment outcomes for people with multi-drug/rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) are sub-optimal, with MDR/RR-TB programs further weakened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and in Haiti, by severe civil unrest. We assessed the impact of these disruptions on treatment outcomes at GHESKIO, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. We conducted a retrospective analysis including all adults (age ≥18 years) who initiated MDR/RR-TB treatment at GHESKIO from 2010 to 2020. We assessed predictors of poor treatment outcome using multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for baseline characteristics and year of treatment. 453 patients initiated treatment for MDR/RR-TB at GHESKIO. Median age was 31 (IQR: 25, 40), 233 (51.4%) were male, and 100 (22.1%) were living with HIV. Three hundred sixty-nine patients (81.5%) achieved cure, 42 (9.3%) died, 40 (8.8%) were lost to follow-up and 2 (<1%) failed treatment. HIV status was associated with poor treatment outcome (aRR: 1.65 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.48)) but there was no difference by year of treatment initiation. Outcomes for patients with MDR/RR-TB remained outstanding, even during the COVID-19 pandemic and severe civil unrest in Haiti. We attribute this resilience in care to the adaptability of program staff and provision of economic and psychosocial support.

Trends in invasive bacterial diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic: analyses of prospective surveillance data from 30 countries and territories in the IRIS Consortium

BACKGROUND

The Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Consortium was established to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus agalactiae. We aimed to analyse the incidence and distribution of these diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the 2 years preceding the pandemic.

METHODS

For this prospective analysis, laboratories in 30 countries and territories representing five continents submitted surveillance data from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 2, 2022, to private projects within databases in PubMLST. The impact of COVID-19 containment measures on the overall number of cases was analysed, and changes in disease distributions by patient age and serotype or group were examined. Interrupted time-series analyses were done to quantify the impact of pandemic response measures and their relaxation on disease rates, and autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to estimate effect sizes and forecast counterfactual trends by hemisphere.

FINDINGS

Overall, 116 841 cases were analysed: 76 481 in 2018-19, before the pandemic, and 40 360 in 2020-21, during the pandemic. During the pandemic there was a significant reduction in the risk of disease caused by S pneumoniae (risk ratio 0·47; 95% CI 0·40-0·55), H influenzae (0·51; 0·40-0·66) and N meningitidis (0·26; 0·21-0·31), while no significant changes were observed for S agalactiae (1·02; 0·75-1·40), which is not transmitted via the respiratory route. No major changes in the distribution of cases were observed when stratified by patient age or serotype or group. An estimated 36 289 (95% prediction interval 17 145-55 434) cases of invasive bacterial disease were averted during the first 2 years of the pandemic among IRIS-participating countries and territories.

INTERPRETATION

COVID-19 containment measures were associated with a sustained decrease in the incidence of invasive disease caused by S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis during the first 2 years of the pandemic, but cases began to increase in some countries towards the end of 2021 as pandemic restrictions were lifted. These IRIS data provide a better understanding of microbial transmission, will inform vaccine development and implementation, and can contribute to health-care service planning and provision of policies.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Torsten Söderberg Foundation, Stockholm County Council, Swedish Research Council, German Federal Ministry of Health, Robert Koch Institute, Pfizer, Merck, and the Greek National Public Health Organization.