Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies

Enhanced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in returning Chinese individuals

Global COVID-19 vaccination programs effectively contained the fast spread of SARS-CoV-2. Characterizing the immunity status of returned populations will favor understanding the achievement of herd immunity and long-term management of COVID-19 in China. Individuals were recruited from 7 quarantine stations in Guangzhou, China. Blood and throat swab specimens were collected from participants, and their immunity status was determined through competitive ELISA, microneutralization assay and enzyme-linked FluoroSpot assay. A total of 272 subjects were involved in the questionnaire survey, of whom 235 (86.4%) were returning Chinese individuals and 37 (13.6%) were foreigners. Blood and throat swab specimens were collected from 108 returning Chinese individuals. Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were detected in ~90% of returning Chinese individuals, either in the primary or the homologous and heterologous booster vaccination group. The serum NAb titers were significantly decreased against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5, BF.7, BQ.1 and XBB.1 compared with the prototype virus. However, memory T-cell responses, including specific IFN-γ and IL-2 responses, were not different in either group. Smoking, alcohol consumption, SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 vaccination, and the time interval between last vaccination and sampling were independent influencing factors for NAb titers against prototype SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern. The vaccine dose was the unique common influencing factor for Omicron subvariants. Enhanced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 was established in returning Chinese individuals who were exposed to reinfection and vaccination. Domestic residents will benefit from booster homologous or heterologous COVID-19 vaccination after reopening of China, which is also useful against breakthrough infection.

Modeling approaches to inform travel-related policies for COVID-19 containment: a scoping review and future directions

BACKGROUND

Travel-related strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 evolved rapidly in response to changes in the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and newly available tools for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Modeling is an important methodology to investigate the range of outcomes that could occur from different disease containment strategies.

METHODS

We examined 43 articles published from December 2019 through September 2022 that used modeling to evaluate travel-related COVID-19 containment strategies. We extracted and synthesized data regarding study objectives, methods, outcomes, populations, settings, strategies, and costs. We used a standardized approach to evaluate each analysis according to 26 criteria for modeling quality and rigor.

RESULTS

The most frequent approaches included compartmental modeling to examine quarantine, isolation, or testing. Early in the pandemic, the goal was to prevent travel-related COVID-19 cases with a focus on individual-level outcomes and assessing strategies such as travel restrictions, quarantine without testing, social distancing, and on-arrival PCR testing. After the development of diagnostic tests and vaccines, modeling studies projected population-level outcomes and investigated these tools to limit COVID-19 spread. Very few published studies included rapid antigen screening strategies, costs, explicit model calibration, or critical evaluation of the modeling approaches.

CONCLUSION

Future modeling analyses should leverage open-source data, improve the transparency of modeling methods, incorporate newly available prevention, diagnostics, and treatments, and include costs and cost-effectiveness so that modeling analyses can be informative to address future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and other emerging infectious diseases (e.g., mpox and Ebola) for travel-related health policies.

Simultaneous and ultrafast detection of pan-SARS-coronaviruses and influenza A/B viruses by a novel multiplex real-time RT-PCR assay

Here we report an ultrafast quadruplex RT-qPCR assay with robust diagnostic ability to detect and distinguish pan-SARS-CoVs and influenza A/B viruses within 35 min. This quadruplex RT-qPCR assay comprised of one novel RNA-based internal control targeting human β2-microglobulin (B2M) for process accuracy and three newly-designed primers-probe sets targeting the envelope protein (E) of pan-SARS-CoV, matrix protein (MP) of influenza A virus and non-structural (NS) region of influenza B virus. This quadruplex assay exhibited a sensitivity comparable to its singleplex counterparts and a slightly higher to that of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-recommended SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A/B assays. The novel assay showed no false-positive amplifications with other common respiratory viruses, and its 95 % limits of detection for pan-SARS-CoV and influenza A/B virus was 4.26-4.52 copies/reaction. Moreover, the assay was reproducible with less than 1 % coefficient of variation and adaptable testing different clinical and environmental samples. Our ultrafast quadruplex RT-qPCR assay can serve as an attractive tool for effective differentiation of influenza A/B virus and SARS-CoV-2, but more importantly prognose the reemergence/emergence of SARS and novel coronaviruses or influenza viruses from animal spillover.

Predicting Covid-19 pandemic waves with biologically and behaviorally informed universal differential equations

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became clear that pandemic waves and population responses were locked in a mutual feedback loop in a classic example of a coupled behavior-disease system. We demonstrate for the first time that universal differential equation (UDE) models are able to extract this interplay from data. We develop a UDE model for COVID-19 and test its ability to make predictions of second pandemic waves. We find that UDEs are capable of learning coupled behavior-disease dynamics and predicting second waves in a variety of populations, provided they are supplied with learning biases describing simple assumptions about disease transmission and population response. Though not yet suitable for deployment as a policy-guiding tool, our results demonstrate potential benefits, drawbacks, and useful techniques when applying universal differential equations to coupled systems.

Optimization of Screening Strategies for COVID-19: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 screening is an effective nonpharmaceutical intervention for identifying infected individuals and interrupting viral transmission. However, questions have been raised regarding its effectiveness in controlling the spread of novel variants and its high socioeconomic costs. Therefore, the optimization of COVID-19 screening strategies has attracted great attention.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to summarize the evidence and provide a reference basis for the optimization of screening strategies for the prevention and control of COVID-19.

METHODS

We applied a methodological framework for scoping reviews and the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews) checklist. We conducted a scoping review of the present publications on the optimization of COVID-19 screening strategies. We searched the PubMed, Web of Science, and Elsevier ScienceDirect databases for publications up to December 31, 2022. English publications related to screening and testing strategies for COVID-19 were included. A data-charting form, jointly developed by 2 reviewers, was used for data extraction according to the optimization directions of the screening strategies.

RESULTS

A total of 2770 unique publications were retrieved from the database search, and 95 abstracts were retained for full-text review. There were 62 studies included in the final review. We summarized the results in 4 major aspects: the screening population (people at various risk conditions such as different regions and occupations; 12/62, 19%), the timing of screening (when the target population is tested before travel or during an outbreak; 12/62, 19%), the frequency of screening (appropriate frequencies for outbreak prevention, outbreak response, or community transmission control; 6/62, 10%), and the screening and detection procedure (the choice of individual or pooled detection and optimization of the pooling approach; 35/62, 56%).

CONCLUSIONS

This review reveals gaps in the optimization of COVID-19 screening strategies and suggests that a number of factors such as prevalence, screening accuracy, effective allocation of resources, and feasibility of strategies should be carefully considered in the development of future screening strategies.

Online public concern about allergic rhinitis and its association with COVID-19 and air quality in China: an informative epidemiological study using Baidu index

BACKGROUND

Allergic rhinitis is a common health concern that affects quality of life. This study aims to examine the online search trends of allergic rhinitis in China before and after the COVID-19 epidemic and to explore the association between the daily air quality and online search volumes of allergic rhinitis in Beijing.

METHODS

We extracted the online search data of allergic rhinitis-related keywords from the Baidu index database from January 23, 2017 to June 23, 2022. We analyzed and compared the temporal distribution of online search behaviors across different themes of allergic rhinitis before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, using the Baidu search index (BSI). We also obtained the air quality index (AQI) data in Beijing and assessed its correlation with daily BSIs of allergic rhinitis.

RESULTS

The online search for allergic rhinitis in China showed significant seasonal variations, with two peaks each year in spring from March to May and autumn from August and October. The BSI of total allergic rhinitis-related searches increased gradually from 2017 to 2019, reaching a peak in April 2019, and declined after the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the first half of 2020. The BSI for all allergic rhinitis themes was significantly lower after the COVID-19 pandemic than before (all p values < 0.05). The results also revealed that, in Beijing, there was a significant negative association between daily BSI and AQI for each allergic rhinitis theme during the original variant strain epidemic period and a significant positive correlation during the Omicron variant period.

CONCLUSION

Both air quality and the interventions used for COVID-19 pandemic, including national and local quarantines and mask wearing behaviors, may have affected the incidence and public concern about allergic rhinitis in China. The online search trends can serve as a valuable tool for tracking real-time public concerns about allergic rhinitis. By complementing traditional disease monitoring systems of health departments, these search trends can also offer insights into the patterns of disease outbreaks. Additionally, they can provide references and suggestions regarding the public's knowledge demands related to allergic rhinitis, which can further be instrumental in developing targeted strategies to enhance population-based disease education on allergic diseases.

Key Challenges for Respiratory Virus Surveillance while Transitioning out of Acute Phase of COVID-19 Pandemic

To support the ongoing management of viral respiratory diseases while transitioning out of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are moving toward an integrated model of surveillance for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, and other respiratory pathogens. Although many surveillance approaches catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic provide novel epidemiologic insight, continuing them as implemented during the pandemic is unlikely to be feasible for nonemergency surveillance, and many have already been scaled back. Furthermore, given anticipated cocirculation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, surveillance activities in place before the pandemic require review and adjustment to ensure their ongoing value for public health. In this report, we highlight key challenges for the development of integrated models of surveillance. We discuss the relative strengths and limitations of different surveillance practices and studies as well as their contribution to epidemiologic assessment, forecasting, and public health decision-making.

Employee investigation and contact tracing program in a pediatric cancer hospital to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 among the workforce, patients, and caregivers

Background

Case investigations and contact tracing are essential disease control measures used by health departments. Early in the pandemic, they were seen as a key strategy to stop COVID-19 spread. The CDC urged rapid action to scale up and train a large workforce and collaborate across public and private agencies to halt COVID-19 transmission.

Methods

We developed a program for case investigation and contact tracing that followed CDC and local health guidelines, compliant with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) regulations and tailored to the needs and resources of our institution. Program staff were trained and assessed for competency before joining the program.

Results

From March 2020 to May 2021, we performed 838 COVID-19 case investigations, which led to 136 contacts. Most employees reported a known SARS-CoV-2 exposure from the community (n = 435) or household (n = 343). Only seven (5.1%) employees were determined as more likely than not to have SARS-CoV-2 infection related to workplace exposure, and when so, lapses in following the masking recommendations were identified. Between June 2021-February 2022, our program adjusted to the demand of the different waves, particularly omicron, by significantly reducing the amount of data collected. No transmission from employees to patients or caregivers was observed during this period.

Conclusion

Prompt implementation of case investigation and contact tracing is possible, and it effectively reduces workplace exposures. This approach can be adapted to suit the specific needs and requirements of various healthcare settings, particularly those serving the most vulnerable patient populations.

Environmentally persistent free radicals in PM2.5 from a typical Chinese industrial city during COVID-19 lockdown: The unexpected contamination level variation

The outbreak of COVID-19 has caused concerns globally. To reduce the rapid transmission of the virus, strict city lockdown measures were conducted in different regions. China is the country that takes the earliest home-based quarantine for people. Although normal industrial and social activities were suspended, the spread of virus was efficiently controlled. Simultaneously, another merit of the city lockdown measure was noticed, which is the improvement of the air quality. Contamination levels of multiple atmospheric pollutants were decreased. However, in this work, 24 and 14 air fine particulate matter (PM2.5) samples were continuously collected before and during COVID-19 city lockdown in Linfen (a typical heavy industrial city in China), and intriguingly, the unreduced concentration was found for environmentally persistent free radicals (EPFRs) in PM2.5 after normal life suspension. The primary non-stopped coal combustion source and secondary Cu-related atmospheric reaction may have impacts on this phenomenon. The cigarette-based assessment model also indicated possible exposure risks of PM2.5-bound EPFRs during lockdown of Linfen. This study revealed not all the contaminants in the atmosphere had an apparent concentration decrease during city lockdown, suggesting the pollutants with complicated sources and formation mechanisms, like EPFRs in PM2.5, still should not be ignored.

Arts therapies for mental disorders in COVID-19 patients: a comprehensive review

Background and objective

The COVID-19 global pandemic has necessitated the urgency for innovative mental health interventions. We performed a comprehensive review of the available literature on the utility and efficacy of arts therapies in treating mental health problems, with special emphasis on their deployment during the COVID-19 pandemic, aiming to provide some evidence for the application of this therapy.

Methods

The potential studies were systematically sourced from five authoritative databases: PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and the CNKI database. The evaluation of these studies was conducted based on stringent criteria, including validity, suitability, therapeutic potential, and consistency. Each piece of included literature was meticulously scored in accordance with these criteria, thus ensuring the inclusion of only the most robust studies in this review. The data from these Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) were carefully extracted using the PICO(S) framework, ensuring a comprehensive and systemic approach to data collection. In order to emphasize the variability in the effects of differing arts therapies on COVID-19-induced psychiatric disturbances, the sourced literature was systematically categorized and scrutinized based on distinct modalities.

Results

Out of the 7,250 sourced articles, 16 satisfied the inclusion conditions. The therapies were predominantly meditation (n = 7), supplemented by individual studies on color therapy (n = 3), music therapy (n = 2), and single studies on horticultural therapy, dance therapy, mindfulness and music therapy, and yoga and music therapy (n = 4 collectively). These various forms of arts therapies had a positive short to medium-term impact on the mental health of COVID-19 patients. Besides improving patients' physical and mental health, these therapies can also be employed to mitigate mental health issues among healthcare professionals.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has profound and long-lasting implications for public mental health. Diverse forms of arts therapies are potentially effective in addressing related psychiatric symptoms. The integration of artificial intelligence might further enhance the efficacy and scalability of arts therapies in future implementations.

Academic and healthcare efforts from Cessation to complete resumption of professional football tournaments during COVID-19 pandemic: A narrative review

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus led to over 626 million infections and 6.5 million deaths worldwide and forced to cancel or postpone several sporting events. Effective control techniques are therefore urgently required to avoid COVID-19 spread at these local and global events. This narrative review addressed the healthcare and research efforts on the intersections between COVID-19 and major professional sports leagues worldwide, with special reference to the FIFA World Cup football 2022. This explained how the broader transformation of COVID-19 from being a potential risk to an urgent pandemic public health emergency, caused the world of Football to halt between February and March 2020. This review could add to the growing literature on the importance of scientific research in understanding the relationship between mass sports events and COVID-19 trajectory, concerning studies conducted globally and particularly for the recommencement of major professional football competitions. The information outlined in the article may help sports organizations understand the risks associated with sports and their settings and improve their preparedness for future events under unprecedented circumstances. There were tremendous global healthcare and research efforts to deal with this unprecedented pandemic. The successful FIFA World Cup football tournament was an indicator of the success of these efforts.

Optimizing the detection of emerging infections using mobility-based spatial sampling

Background Timely and precise detection of emerging infections is crucial for effective outbreak management and disease control. Human mobility significantly influences infection risks and transmission dynamics, and spatial sampling is a valuable tool for pinpointing potential infections in specific areas. This study explored spatial sampling methods, informed by various mobility patterns, to optimize the allocation of testing resources for detecting emerging infections. Methods Mobility patterns, derived from clustering point-of-interest data and travel data, were integrated into four spatial sampling approaches to detect emerging infections at the community level. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed mobility-based spatial sampling, we conducted analyses using actual and simulated outbreaks under different scenarios of transmissibility, intervention timing, and population density in cities. Results By leveraging inter-community movement data and initial case locations, the proposed case flow intensity (CFI) and case transmission intensity (CTI)-informed sampling approaches could considerably reduce the number of tests required for both actual and simulated outbreaks. Nonetheless, the prompt use of CFI and CTI within communities is imperative for effective detection, particularly for highly contagious infections in densely populated areas. Conclusions The mobility-based spatial sampling approach can substantially improve the efficiency of community-level testing for detecting emerging infections. It achieves this by reducing the number of individuals screened while maintaining a high accuracy rate of infection identification. It represents a cost-effective solution to optimize the deployment of testing resources, when necessary, to contain emerging infectious diseases in diverse settings.

The relationship between self-control and mental health problems among Chinese university students

Background

Mental health issues are often associated with poor self-control. Therefore, effective interventions against mental health problems should include self-control training. However, it is unclear whether the effect of self-control varies across different types of mental health problems.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted using the convenience sampling method at five universities in Chongqing, China, where 1,409 students reported their demographic information, level of self-control, and symptoms of irritability, depression, and anxiety. Descriptive statistical methods and a network analysis approach were employed to explore the relationship between self-control and symptoms of irritability, depression, and anxiety among 1,409 students. The bridging links between self-control and the three mental health problems were analyzed.

Results

The findings revealed a negative correlation between self-control and symptoms of irritability, depression, and anxiety among university students. Impulse control was found to be the bridge between self-control and irritability or anxiety symptoms, while resistance to temptation was the bridge between self-control and depressive symptoms.

Conclusion

These results demonstrate the different relationship between self-control with irritability, anxiety, and depressive symptoms. The findings of this study may shed light on future mental health interventions for university students during potential public health emergencies, such as prior knowledge of the main types of psychological problems among university students, which may allow for the development of precise self-control intervention strategies, such as targeting impulsivity or resistance to temptation.

Evaluating the impact of testing strategies for the detection of nosocomial COVID-19 in English hospitals through data-driven modeling

Introduction

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic 293,204 inpatients in England tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. It is estimated that 1% of these cases were hospital-associated using European centre for disease prevention and control (ECDC) and Public Health England (PHE) definitions. Guidelines for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals have developed over time but the effectiveness and efficiency of testing strategies for preventing nosocomial transmission has not been explored.

Methods

Using an individual-based model, parameterised using multiple datasets, we simulated the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to patients and healthcare workers between March and August 2020 and evaluated the efficacy of different testing strategies. These strategies were: 0) Testing only symptomatic patients on admission; 1) Testing all patients on admission; 2) Testing all patients on admission and again between days 5 and 7, and 3) Testing all patients on admission, and again at days 3, and 5-7. In addition to admissions testing, patients that develop a symptomatic infection while in hospital were tested under all strategies. We evaluated the impact of testing strategy, test characteristics and hospital-related factors on the number of nosocomial patient infections.

Results

Modelling suggests that 84.6% (95% CI: 84.3, 84.7) of community-acquired and 40.8% (40.3, 41.3) of hospital-associated SARS-CoV-2 infections are detectable before a patient is discharged from hospital. Testing all patients on admission and retesting after 3 or 5 days increases the proportion of nosocomial cases detected by 9.2%. Adding discharge testing increases detection by a further 1.5% (relative increase). Increasing occupancy rates, number of beds per bay, or the proportion of admissions wrongly suspected of having COVID-19 on admission and therefore incorrectly cohorted with COVID-19 patients, increases the rate of nosocomial transmission. Over 30,000 patients in England could have been discharged while incubating a non-detected SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, of which 3.3% could have been identified by discharge screening. There was no significant difference in the rates of nosocomial transmission between testing strategies or when the turnaround time of the test was increased.

Discussion

This study provides insight into the efficacy of testing strategies in a period unbiased by vaccines and variants. The findings are relevant as testing programs for SARS-CoV-2 are scaled back, and possibly if a new vaccine escaping variant emerges.

Effectiveness of testing, contact tracing and isolation interventions among the general population on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review

We conducted a systematic literature review of general population testing, contact tracing, case isolation and contact quarantine interventions to assess their effectiveness in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, as implemented in real-world settings. We designed a broad search strategy and aimed to identify peer-reviewed studies of any design provided there was a quantitative measure of effectiveness on a transmission outcome. Studies that assessed the effect of testing or diagnosis on disease outcomes via treatment, but did not assess a transmission outcome, were not included. We focused on interventions implemented among the general population rather than in specific settings; these were from anywhere in the world and published any time after 1 January 2020 until the end of 2022. From 26 720 titles and abstracts, 1181 were reviewed as full text, and 25 met our inclusion criteria. These 25 studies included one randomized control trial (RCT) and the remaining 24 analysed empirical data and made some attempt to control for confounding. Studies included were categorized by the type of intervention: contact tracing (seven studies); specific testing strategies (12 studies); strategies for isolating cases/contacts (four studies); and 'test, trace, isolate' (TTI) as a part of a package of interventions (two studies). None of the 25 studies were rated at low risk of bias and many were rated as serious risk of bias, particularly due to the likely presence of uncontrolled confounding factors, which was a major challenge in assessing the independent effects of TTI in observational studies. These confounding factors are to be expected from observational studies during an on-going pandemic, when the emphasis was on reducing the epidemic burden rather than trial design. Findings from these 25 studies suggested an important public health role for testing followed by isolation, especially where mass and serial testing was used to reduce transmission. Some of the most compelling analyses came from examining fine-grained within-country data on contact tracing; while broader studies which compared behaviour between countries also often found TTI led to reduced transmission and mortality, this was not universal. There was limited evidence for the benefit of isolation of cases/contacts away from the home environment. One study, an RCT, showed that daily testing of contacts could be a viable strategy to replace lengthy quarantine of contacts. Based on the scarcity of robust empirical evidence, we were not able to draw any firm quantitative conclusions about the quantitative impact of TTI interventions in different epidemic contexts. While the majority of studies found that testing, tracing and isolation reduced transmission, evidence for the scale of this impact is only available for specific scenarios and hence is not necessarily generalizable. Our review therefore emphasizes the need to conduct robust experimental studies that help inform the likely quantitative impact of different TTI interventions on transmission and their optimal design. Work is needed to support such studies in the context of future emerging epidemics, along with assessments of the cost-effectiveness of TTI interventions, which was beyond the scope of this review but will be critical to decision-making. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.

Modelling the effect of travel-related policies on disease control in a meta-population structure

Travel restrictions, while delaying the spread of an emerging disease from the source, could inflict substantial socioeconomic burden. Travel-related policies, such as quarantine and testing of travelers, may be considered as alternative strategies to mitigate the negative impact of travel bans. We developed a meta-population, delay-differential model to evaluate a strategy that combines testing of travelers prior to departure from the source of infection with quarantine and testing at exit from quarantine in the destination population. Our results, based on early parameter estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, indicate that testing travelers at exit from quarantine is more effective in delaying case importation than testing them before departure or upon arrival. We show that a 1-day quarantine with an exit test could outperform a longer, 3-day quarantine without testing in delaying the outbreak peak. Rapid, large-scale testing capacities with short turnaround times provide important means of detecting infectious cases and reducing case importation, while shortening quarantine duration for travelers at destination.

Getting Jab or Regular Test: Observations from an Impulsive Epidemic COVID-19 Model

Several safe and effective vaccines are available to prevent individuals from experiencing severe illness or death as a result of COVID-19. Widespread vaccination is widely regarded as a critical tool in the fight against the disease. However, some individuals may choose not to vaccinate due to vaccine hesitancy or other medical conditions. In some sectors, regular compulsory testing is required for such unvaccinated individuals. Interestingly, different sectors require testing at various frequencies, such as weekly or biweekly. As a result, it is essential to determine the optimal testing frequency and identify underlying factors. This study proposes a population-based model that can accommodate different personal decision choices, such as getting vaccinated or undergoing regular tests, as well as vaccine efficacies and uncertainties in epidemic transmission. The model, formulated as impulsive differential equations, uses time instants to represent the reporting date for the test result of an unvaccinated individual. By employing well-accepted indices to measure transmission risk, including the basic reproduction number, the peak time, the final size, and the number of severe infections, the study shows that an optimal testing frequency is highly sensitive to parameters involved in the transmission process, such as vaccine efficacy, disease transmission rate, test accuracy, and existing vaccination coverage. The testing frequency should be appropriately designed with the consideration of all these factors, as well as the control objectives measured by epidemiological quantities of great concern.

Thirty-Day Mortality and Complication Rates in Total Joint Arthroplasty After a Recent COVID-19 Diagnosis: A Retrospective Cohort in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C)

BACKGROUND

The risk of postoperative complications in patients who had a positive COVID-19 test prior to a total joint arthroplasty (TJA) is unknown. The purpose of this investigation was to study the complications and mortality associated with a recent COVID-19 diagnosis prior to TJA.

METHODS

Patients undergoing primary and revision total hip arthroplasties (THAs) or total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) were identified using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Data Enclave. Patients were divided into a COVID-19-positive group (positive polymerase chain reaction [PCR] test, clinical diagnosis, or positive antibody test) and a COVID-19-negative group, and the time from diagnosis was noted. There was no differentiation between severity or acuity of illness available. The postoperative complications reviewed included venous thromboembolism, pneumonia, acute myocardial infarction, readmission rates, and 30-day mortality rates.

RESULTS

A total of 85,047 patients who underwent elective TJA were included in this study, and 3,516 patients (4.13%) had had a recent positive COVID-19 diagnosis. Patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at 2 weeks prior to TJA were at increased risk of pneumonia (odds ratio [OR], 2.46), acute myocardial infarction (OR, 2.90), sepsis within 90 days (OR, 2.63), and 30-day mortality (OR, 10.61).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a recent COVID-19 diagnosis prior to TJA are at greater risk of postoperative complications including 30-day mortality. Our analysis presents critical data that should be considered prior to TJA in patients recently diagnosed with COVID-19.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level III . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Marginal effects of public health measures and COVID-19 disease burden in China: A large-scale modelling study

China had conducted some of the most stringent public health measures to control the spread of successive SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, the effectiveness of these measures and their impacts on the associated disease burden have rarely been quantitatively assessed at the national level. To address this gap, we developed a stochastic age-stratified metapopulation model that incorporates testing, contact tracing and isolation, based on 419 million travel movements among 366 Chinese cities. The study period for this model began from September 2022. The COVID-19 disease burden was evaluated, considering 8 types of underlying health conditions in the Chinese population. We identified the marginal effects between the testing speed and reduction in the epidemic duration. The findings suggest that assuming a vaccine coverage of 89%, the Omicron-like wave could be suppressed by 3-day interval population-level testing (PLT), while it would become endemic with 4-day interval PLT, and without testing, it would result in an epidemic. PLT conducted every 3 days would not only eliminate infections but also keep hospital bed occupancy at less than 29.46% (95% CI, 22.73-38.68%) of capacity for respiratory illness and ICU bed occupancy at less than 58.94% (95% CI, 45.70-76.90%) during an outbreak. Furthermore, the underlying health conditions would lead to an extra 2.35 (95% CI, 1.89-2.92) million hospital admissions and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.13-0.2) million ICU admissions. Our study provides insights into health preparedness to balance the disease burden and sustainability for a country with a population of billions.

How to tackle single target gene positive results of SARS-CoV-2 real-time PCR: A cross-sectional study

Background and Aims

Real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (real-time RT-PCR) is the gold standard test for diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, when the test result is near the detection limit of the assay the possibility of getting false positive or negative results is high. In addition, it might result in single target gene positive (STGP) results which should be interpreted with caution.

Methods

This study was performed on 29,962 nasal swabs from July 1 to August 31, 2020. Ct values less than 40 for each or both of N and RdRp genes were recommended to be selected as positive. Positive samples for one gene with the Cts more than 35 were rechecked by adding more templates.

Results

The results showed that 1016 (3.39%) samples were positive just for one gene with high Ct values. The results of the second reactions showed that 325 (31.99%) samples were positive for both N and RdRp which were reported positive, 301 (29.65%) were positive only for one gene which were considered as suspicious cases and resampling was suggested for them. Finally, 390 (38.385%) samples were negative for both genes.

Conclusion

In conclusion, tracking weak positive results of SARS-CoV-2 real-time RT-PCR revealed that most of the individuals who were STGP clean the infection completely in less than a week which showed they were in the convalescent phase of infection. However, some of them who were in the beginning of infection showed a decrease in Ct value during a week, so they could spread the virus in the society.

Trade-off Between Quarantine Length and Compliance to Optimize COVID-19 Control

BACKGROUND

Guidance on COVID-19 quarantine duration is often based on the maximum observed incubation periods assuming perfect compliance. However, the impact of longer quarantines may be subject to diminishing returns; the largest benefits of quarantine occur over the first few days. Additionally, the financial and psychological burdens of quarantine may motivate increases in noncompliance behavior.

METHODS

We use a deterministic transmission model to identify the optimal length of quarantine to minimize transmission. We modeled the relation between noncompliance behavior and disease risk using a time-varying function of leaving quarantine based on studies from the literature.

RESULTS

The first few days in quarantine were more crucial to control the spread of COVID-19; even when compliance is high, a 10-day quarantine was as effective in lowering transmission as a 14-day quarantine; under certain noncompliance scenarios a 5-day quarantine may become nearly protective as 14-day quarantine.

CONCLUSION

Data to characterize compliance dynamics will help select optimal quarantine strategies that balance the trade-offs between social forces governing behavior and transmission dynamics.

Epidemic Management via Imperfect Testing: A Multi-criterial Perspective

Diagnostic testing may represent a key component in response to an ongoing epidemic, especially if coupled with containment measures, such as mandatory self-isolation, aimed to prevent infectious individuals from furthering onward transmission while allowing non-infected individuals to go about their lives. However, by its own nature as an imperfect binary classifier, testing can produce false negative or false positive results. Both types of misclassification are problematic: while the former may exacerbate the spread of disease, the latter may result in unnecessary isolation mandates and socioeconomic burden. As clearly shown by the COVID-19 pandemic, achieving adequate protection for both people and society is a crucial, yet highly challenging task that needs to be addressed in managing large-scale epidemic transmission. To explore the trade-offs imposed by diagnostic testing and mandatory isolation as tools for epidemic containment, here we present an extension of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model that accounts for an additional stratification of the population based on the results of diagnostic testing. We show that, under suitable epidemiological conditions, a careful assessment of testing and isolation protocols can contribute to epidemic containment, even in the presence of false negative/positive results. Also, using a multi-criterial framework, we identify simple, yet Pareto-efficient testing and isolation scenarios that can minimize case count, isolation time, or seek a trade-off solution for these often contrasting epidemic management objectives.

SERS Signature of SARS-CoV-2 in Saliva and Nasopharyngeal Swabs: Towards Perspective COVID-19 Point-of-Care Diagnostics

In this study, the intrinsic surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS)-based approach coupled with chemometric analysis was adopted to establish the biochemical fingerprint of SARS-CoV-2 infected human fluids: saliva and nasopharyngeal swabs. The numerical methods, partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and support vector machine classification (SVMC), facilitated the spectroscopic identification of the viral-specific molecules, molecular changes, and distinct physiological signatures of pathetically altered fluids. Next, we developed the reliable classification model for fast identification and differentiation of negative CoV(-) and positive CoV(+) groups. The PLS-DA calibration model was described by a great statistical value-RMSEC and RMSECV below 0.3 and R²_cal at the level of ~0.7 for both type of body fluids. The calculated diagnostic parameters for SVMC and PLS-DA at the stage of preparation of calibration model and classification of external samples simulating real diagnostic conditions evinced high accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for saliva specimens. Here, we outlined the significant role of neopterin as the biomarker in the prediction of COVID-19 infection from nasopharyngeal swab. We also observed the increased content of nucleic acids of DNA/RNA and proteins such as ferritin as well as specific immunoglobulins. The developed SERS for SARS-CoV-2 approach allows: (i) fast, simple and non-invasive collection of analyzed specimens; (ii) fast response with the time of analysis below 15 min, and (iii) sensitive and reliable SERS-based screening of COVID-19 disease.

A mathematical model to assess the impact of testing and isolation compliance on the transmission of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide. Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19, especially in the early stage of the disease outbreak. In this paper, we develop a deterministic model to investigate the impact of testing and compliance with isolation on the transmission of COVID-19. We derive the control reproduction number R C , which gives the threshold for disease elimination or prevalence. Using data from New York State in the early stage of the disease outbreak, we estimate R C = 7.989 . Both elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that testing and compliance with isolation are significant in reducing R C and disease prevalence. Simulation reveals that only high testing volume combined with a large proportion of individuals complying with isolation have great impact on mitigating the transmission. The testing starting date is also crucial: the earlier testing is implemented, the more impact it has on reducing the infection. The results obtained here would also be helpful in developing guidelines of early control strategies for pandemics similar to COVID-19.

Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans

A compartment model for an in-host liquid nanoparticle delivered mRNA vaccine is presented. Through non-dimensionalisation, five timescales are identified that dictate the lifetime of the vaccine in-host: decay of interferon gamma, antibody priming, autocatalytic growth, antibody peak and decay, and interleukin cessation. Through asymptotic analysis we are able to obtain semi-analytical solutions in each of the time regimes which allows us to predict maximal concentrations and better understand parameter dependence in the model. We compare our model to 22 data sets for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines demonstrating good agreement. Using our analysis, we estimate the values for each of the five timescales in each data set and predict maximal concentrations of plasma B-cells, antibody, and interleukin. Through our comparison, we do not observe any discernible differences between vaccine candidates and sex. However, we do identify an age dependence, specifically that vaccine activation takes longer and that peak antibody occurs sooner in patients aged 55 and greater.

Covid-19 Surveillance Testing and Resident Outcomes in Nursing Homes

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread adoption of surveillance testing for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) among staff members in skilled nursing facilities, evidence is limited regarding its relationship with outcomes among facility residents.

METHODS

Using data obtained from 2020 to 2022, we performed a retrospective cohort study of testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among staff members in 13,424 skilled nursing facilities during three pandemic periods: before vaccine approval, before the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant wave, and during the omicron wave. We assessed staff testing volumes during weeks without Covid-19 cases relative to other skilled nursing facilities in the same county, along with Covid-19 cases and deaths among residents during potential outbreaks (defined as the occurrence of a case after 2 weeks with no cases). We reported adjusted differences in outcomes between high-testing facilities (90th percentile of test volume) and low-testing facilities (10th percentile). The two primary outcomes were the weekly cumulative number of Covid-19 cases and related deaths among residents during potential outbreaks.

RESULTS

During the overall study period, 519.7 cases of Covid-19 per 100 potential outbreaks were reported among residents of high-testing facilities as compared with 591.2 cases among residents of low-testing facilities (adjusted difference, -71.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], -91.3 to -51.6). During the same period, 42.7 deaths per 100 potential outbreaks occurred in high-testing facilities as compared with 49.8 deaths in low-testing facilities (adjusted difference, -7.1; 95% CI, -11.0 to -3.2). Before vaccine availability, high- and low-testing facilities had 759.9 cases and 1060.2 cases, respectively, per 100 potential outbreaks (adjusted difference, -300.3; 95% CI, -377.1 to -223.5), along with 125.2 and 166.8 deaths (adjusted difference, -41.6; 95% CI, -57.8 to -25.5). Before the omicron wave, the numbers of cases and deaths were similar in high- and low-testing facilities; during the omicron wave, high-testing facilities had fewer cases among residents, but deaths were similar in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater surveillance testing of staff members at skilled nursing facilities was associated with clinically meaningful reductions in Covid-19 cases and deaths among residents, particularly before vaccine availability.

Attitudes towards booster, testing and isolation, and their impact on COVID-19 response in winter 2022/2023 in France, Belgium, and Italy: a cross-sectional survey and modelling study

Background

European countries are focusing on testing, isolation, and boosting strategies to counter the 2022/2023 winter surge due to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants. However, widespread pandemic fatigue and limited compliance potentially undermine mitigation efforts.

Methods

To establish a baseline for interventions, we ran a multicountry survey to assess respondents’ willingness to receive booster vaccination and comply with testing and isolation mandates. Integrating survey and estimated immunity data in a branching process epidemic spreading model, we evaluated the effectiveness and costs of current protocols in France, Belgium, and Italy to manage the winter wave.

Findings

The vast majority of survey participants (N = 4594) was willing to adhere to testing (>91%) and rapid isolation (>88%) across the three countries. Pronounced differences emerged in the declared senior adherence to booster vaccination (73% in France, 94% in Belgium, 86% in Italy). Epidemic model results estimate that testing and isolation protocols would confer significant benefit in reducing transmission (17–24% reduction, from R = 1.6 to R = 1.3 in France and Belgium, to R = 1.2 in Italy) with declared adherence. Achieving a mitigating level similar to the French protocol, the Belgian protocol would require 35% fewer tests (from 1 test to 0.65 test per infected person) and avoid the long isolation periods of the Italian protocol (average of 6 days vs. 11). A cost barrier to test would significantly decrease adherence in France and Belgium, undermining protocols’ effectiveness.

Interpretation

Simpler mandates for isolation may increase awareness and actual compliance, reducing testing costs, without compromising mitigation. High booster vaccination uptake remains key for the control of the winter wave.

Funding

The 10.13039/501100000780European Commission, ANRS–Maladies Infectieuses Émergentes, the Agence Nationale de la Recherche, the Chaires Blaise Pascal Program of the Île-de-France region.

Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy

During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries, such as Australia, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Thailand, and Vietnam successfully implemented an elimination strategy, enacting strict border control and periods of lockdowns to end community transmission. Atlantic Canada and Canada's territories implemented similar policies, and reported long periods with no community cases. In Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island a median of 80% or more of daily reported cases were travel-related from July 1, 2020 to May 31, 2021. With increasing vaccination coverage, it may be appropriate to exit an elimination strategy, but most existing epidemiological frameworks are applicable only to situations where most cases occur in the community, and are not appropriate for regions that have implemented an elimination strategy. To inform the pandemic response in regions that are implementing an elimination strategy, we extend importation modelling to consider post-arrival travel restrictions, and pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions in the local community. We find that shortly after the Omicron variant had begun spreading in Canada, the expected daily number of spillovers, infections spread to NL community members from travellers and their close contacts, was higher than any time previously in the pandemic. By December 24, 2021, the expected number of spillovers was 44% higher than the previous high, which occurred in late July 2021 shortly after travel restrictions were first relaxed. We develop a method to assess the characteristics of potential future community outbreaks in regions that are implementing an elimination strategy. We apply this method to predict the effect of variant and vaccination coverage on the size of hypothetical community outbreaks in Mount Pearl, a suburb of the St. John's metropolitan area in NL. Our methodology can be used to evaluate alternative plans to relax public health restrictions when vaccine coverage is high in regions that have implemented an elimination strategy. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Modelling the impact of timelines of testing and isolation on disease control

Testing and isolation remain a key component of public health responses to both persistent and emerging infectious diseases. Although the value of these measures have been demonstrated in combating recent outbreaks including the COVID-19 pandemic and monkeypox, their impact depends critically on the timelines of testing and start of isolation during the course of disease. To investigate this impact, we developed a delay differential model and incorporated age-since-symptom-onset as a parameter for delay in testing. We then used the model to compare the outcomes of reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and rapid antigen (RA) testing methods when isolation starts either at the time of testing or at the time of test result. Parameterizing the model with estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and diagnostic sensitivity of the tests, we found that the reduction of disease transmission using the RA test can be comparable to that achieved by applying the RT-PCR test. Given constraints and inevitable delays associated with sample collection and laboratory assays in RT-PCR testing post symptom onset, self-administered RA tests with short turnaround times present a viable alternative for timely isolation of infectious cases.

The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate

The social contact rate has influenced the transmission of COVID-19, with more social contact resulting in more contagion cases. We chose 18 countries with the most confirmed cases in the first 200 days after the Wuhan lockdown. This was the first study using the dynamic social contact rate to simulate the epidemic under diverse restriction policies over 500 days since the COVID-19 outbreak. The developed General Dynamic Model suggested that the probability of contagion ranged from 12.52% to 39.39% in the epidemic. The geometric mean of the social contact rates differed from 18.21% to 96.00% between countries. The restriction policies in developed economies were 3.5 times more efficient than in developing economies. We compare the effectiveness of different policies for disease prevention and discuss the influence of policy adjustment frequency for each country. Maintaining the tightest restriction or alternate tightening and loosening restrictions was recommended, with each having an average 72.45% and 79.78% reduction in maximum active cases, respectively.

Optimized workplace risk mitigation measures for SARS-CoV-2 in 2022

596 million SARS-CoV-2 cases have been reported and over 12 billion vaccine doses have been administered. As vaccination rates increase, a gap in knowledge exists regarding appropriate thresholds for escalation and de-escalation of workplace COVID-19 preventative measures. We conducted 133,056 simulation experiments, evaluating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus in hypothesized working environments subject to COVID-19 infections from the community. We tested the rates of workplace-acquired infections based on applied isolation strategies, community infection rates, methods and scales of testing, non-pharmaceutical interventions, variant predominance, vaccination coverages, and vaccination efficacies. When 75% of a workforce is vaccinated with a 70% efficacious vaccine against infection, then no masking or routine testing + isolation strategies are needed to prevent workplace-acquired omicron variant infections when the community infection rate per 100,000 persons is ≤ 1. A CIR ≤ 30, and ≤ 120 would result in no workplace-acquired infections in this same scenario against the delta and alpha variants, respectively. Workforces with 100% worker vaccination can prevent workplace-acquired infections with higher community infection rates. Identifying and isolating workers with antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 testing methods results in the same or fewer workplace-acquired infections than testing with slower turnaround time polymerase chain reaction methods. Risk migration measures such as mask-wearing, testing, and isolation can be relaxed, or escalated, in commensurate with levels of community infections, workforce immunization, and risk tolerance. The interactive heatmap we provide can be used for immediate, parameter-based case count predictions to inform institutional policy making. The simulation approach we have described can be further used for future evaluation of strategies to mitigate COVID-19 spread.

COVID-19 Related Early Google Search Behavior and Health Communication in the United States: Panel Data Analysis on Health Measures

The COVID-19 outbreak at the end of December 2019 spread rapidly all around the world. The objective of this study is to investigate and understand the relationship between public health measures and the development of the pandemic through Google search behaviors in the United States. Our collected data includes Google search queries related to COVID-19 from 1 January to 4 April 2020. After using unit root tests (ADF test and PP test) to examine the stationary and a Hausman test to choose a random effect model, a panel data analysis is conducted to investigate the key query terms with the newly added cases. In addition, a full sample regression and two sub-sample regressions are proposed to explain: (1) The changes in COVID-19 cases number are partly related to search variables related to treatments and medical resources, such as ventilators, hospitals, and masks, which correlate positively with the number of new cases. In contrast, regarding public health measures, social distancing, lockdown, stay-at-home, and self-isolation measures were negatively associated with the number of new cases in the US. (2) In mild states, which ranked one to twenty by the average daily new cases from least to most in 50 states, the query terms about public health measures (quarantine, lockdown, and self-isolation) have a significant negative correlation with the number of new cases. However, only the query terms about lockdown and self-isolation are also negatively associated with the number of new cases in serious states (states ranking 31 to 50). Furthermore, public health measures taken by the government during the COVID-19 outbreak are closely related to the situation of controlling the pandemic.

The Deceptive COVID-19: Lessons from Common Molecular Diagnostics and a Novel Plan for the Prevention of the Next Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic took place during the years 2020-2022 and the virus, named SARS-CoV-2, seems likely to have resulted in an endemic disease. Nevertheless, widespread COVID-19 has given rise to several major molecular diagnostics' facts and concerns that have emerged during the overall management of this disease and the subsequent pandemic. These concerns and lessons are undeniably critical for the prevention and control of future infectious agents. Furthermore, most populaces were introduced to several new public health maintenance strategies, and again, some critical events arose. The purpose of this perspective is to thoroughly analyze all these issues and the concerns, such as the molecular diagnostics' terminologies, their role, as well as the quantity and quality issues with a molecular diagnostics' test result. Furthermore, it is speculated that society will be more vulnerable in the future and prone to emerging infectious diseases; thus, a novel preventive medicine's plan for the prevention and control of future (re)emerging infectious diseases is presented, so as to aid the early prevention of future epidemics and pandemics.

Optimization of Population-Level Testing, Contact Tracing, and Isolation in Emerging COVID-19 Outbreaks: a Mathematical Modeling Study - Tonghua City and Beijing Municipality, China, 2021-2022

Introduction

The transmissibility of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant poses challenges for the existing measures containing the virus in China. In response, this study investigates the effectiveness of population-level testing (PLT) and contact tracing (CT) to help curb coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resurgences in China.

Methods

Two transmission dynamic models (i.e. with and without age structure) were developed to evaluate the effectiveness of PLT and CT. Extensive simulations were conducted to optimize PLT and CT strategies for COVID-19 control and surveillance.

Results

Urban Omicron resurgences can be controlled by multiple rounds of PLT, supplemented by CT - as long as testing is frequent. This study also evaluated the time needed to detect COVID-19 cases for surveillance under different routine testing rates. The results show that there is a 90% probability of detecting COVID-19 cases within 3 days through daily testing. Otherwise, it takes around 7 days to detect COVID-19 cases at a 90% probability level if biweekly testing is used. Routine testing applied to the age group 21-60 for COVID-19 surveillance would achieve similar performance to that applied to all populations.

Discussion

Our analysis evaluates potential PLT and CT strategies for COVID-19 control and surveillance.

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Countries around the world have implemented a series of interventions to contain the pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and significant lessons can be drawn from the study of the full transmission dynamics of the disease caused by-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-in the Eastern, Madinah, Makkah, and Riyadh regions of Saudi Arabia, where robust non-pharmaceutical interventions effectively suppressed the local outbreak of this disease. On the basis of 333732 laboratory-confirmed cases, we used mathematical modelling to reconstruct the complete spectrum dynamics of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia between 2 March and 25 September 2020 over 5 periods characterised by events and interventions. Our model account for asymptomatic and presymptomatic infectiousness, time-varying ascertainable infection rate, and transmission rates. Our results indicate that non-pharmaceutical interventions were effective in containing the epidemic, with reproduction numbers decreasing on average to 0.29 (0.19-0.66) in the Eastern, Madinah, Makkah, and Riyadh region. The chance of resurgence after the lifting of all interventions after 30 consecutive days with no symptomatic cases is also examined and emphasizes the danger presented by largely hidden infections while switching control strategies. These findings have major significance for evaluating methods for maintaining monitoring and interventions to eventually reduce outbreaks of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia in the future.

An optimization model for planning testing and control strategies to limit the spread of a pandemic - The case of COVID-19

The global health crisis caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has highlighted the importance of efficient disease detection and control strategies for minimizing the number of infections and deaths in the population and halting the spread of the pandemic. Countries have shown different preparedness levels for promptly implementing disease detection strategies, via mass testing and isolation of identified cases, which led to a largely varying impact of the outbreak on the populations and health-care systems. In this paper, we propose a new pandemic resource allocation model for allocating limited disease detection and control resources, in particular testing capacities, in order to limit the spread of a pandemic. The proposed model is a novel epidemiological compartmental model formulated as a non-linear programming model that is suitable to address the inherent non-linearity of an infectious disease progression within the population. A number of novel features are implemented in the model to take into account important disease characteristics, such as asymptomatic infection and the distinct risk levels of infection within different segments of the population. Moreover, a method is proposed to estimate the vulnerability level of the different communities impacted by the pandemic and to explicitly consider equity in the resource allocation problem. The model is validated against real data for a case study of COVID-19 outbreak in France and our results provide various insights on the optimal testing intervention time and level, and the impact of the optimal allocation of testing resources on the spread of the disease among regions. The results confirm the significance of the proposed modeling framework for informing policymakers on the best preparedness strategies against future infectious disease outbreaks.

Economic evaluation of COVID-19 rapid antigen screening programs in the workplace

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic testing has been pivotal in detecting SARS-CoV-2 infections and reducing transmission through the isolation of positive cases. We quantified the value of implementing frequent, rapid antigen (RA) testing in the workplace to identify screening programs that are cost-effective.

METHODS

To project the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths under alternative screening programs, we adapted an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission and parameterized it with the demographics of Ontario, Canada, incorporating vaccination and waning of immunity. Taking into account healthcare costs and productivity losses associated with each program, we calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with quality-adjusted life year (QALY) as the measure of effect. Considering RT-PCR testing of only severe cases as the baseline scenario, we estimated the incremental net monetary benefits (iNMB) of the screening programs with varying durations and initiation times, as well as different booster coverages of working adults.

RESULTS

Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of CDN$30,000 per QALY loss averted, twice weekly workplace screening was cost-effective only if the program started early during a surge. In most scenarios, the iNMB of RA screening without a confirmatory RT-PCR or RA test was comparable or higher than the iNMB for programs with a confirmatory test for RA-positive cases. When the program started early with a duration of at least 16 weeks and no confirmatory testing, the iNMB exceeded CDN$1.1 million per 100,000 population. Increasing booster coverage of working adults improved the iNMB of RA screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that frequent RA testing starting very early in a surge, without a confirmatory test, is a preferred screening program for the detection of asymptomatic infections in workplaces.

Prolonged Viral Shedding in Three Young Adult Cases of COVID-19

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 infection is usually self-limited, with a short duration for viral shedding within several weeks. However, prolonged viral shedding has been observed in severe or immune-compromised coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Here, we reported that three young adult cases of COVID-19 patients, who were either immunosuppressed nor severe, showed prolonged viral RNA shedding from the upper respiratory tract for 58, 81, and 137 days since initial diagnosis. To our knowledge, this is the longest duration of viral shedding reported to date in young adult patients. Further studies on factors relevant to prolonged viral positivity, as well as the correlation between viral positivity and transmission risk are needed for the optimal management of COVID-19 patients with prolonged nucleic acid positive.

COVID-19 Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT): Exposure quantification based on ventilation, infection prevalence, group characteristics, and behavior

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT) allows users to compare respiratory relative risk to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) for various scenarios, providing understanding of how combinations of protective measures affect risk. CEAT incorporates mechanistic, stochastic, and epidemiological factors including the (i) emission rate of virus, (ii) viral aerosol degradation and removal, (iii) duration of activity/exposure, (iv) inhalation rates, (v) ventilation rates (indoors/outdoors), (vi) volume of indoor space, (vii) filtration, (viii) mask use and effectiveness, (ix) distance between people (taking into account both near-field and far-field effects of proximity), (x) group size, (xi) current infection rates by variant, (xii) prevalence of infection and immunity in the community, (xiii) vaccination rates, and (xiv) implementation of COVID-19 testing procedures. CEAT applied to published studies of COVID-19 transmission events demonstrates the model's accuracy. We also show how health and safety professionals at NASA Ames Research Center used CEAT to manage potential risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 exposures.

Impact of COVID-19 on Intracranial Meningioma Resection: Results from California State Inpatient Database

Simple Summary

All fields of healthcare were adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we sought to understand the effects of COVID-19 on hospitalizations for intracranial meningioma resection using a large database. We compared hospitalization rates as well as hospital outcomes such as Clavien–Dindo grade IV complications, in-hospital mortality, and prolonged length of stay for intracranial meningioma resection during 2019 and 2020. Our findings showed that though hospitalization rates decreased slightly during the COVID-19 pandemic, hospital outcomes were not adversely affected. The findings of our study show that with adequate planning and preparations, better hospital outcomes could be sustained even during healthcare emergencies such as COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings assure that neurosurgery practice in the US ensured the best quality of care to their patients even during COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Purpose: To assess the effects of COVID-19 on hospitalizations for intracranial meningioma resection using a large database. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the California State Inpatient Database (SID) 2019 and 2020. All adult (18 years or older) hospitalizations were included for the analysis. The primary outcomes were trends in hospitalization for intracranial meningioma resection between 2019 and 2020. Secondary outcomes were Clavien–Dindo grade IV complications, in-hospital mortality, and prolonged length of stay, which was defined as length of stay ≥75 percentile. Results: There were 3,173,333 and 2,866,161 hospitalizations in 2019 and 2020, respectively (relative decrease, 9.7%), of which 921 and 788 underwent intracranial meningioma resection (relative decrease, 14.4%). In 2020, there were 94,114 admissions for COVID-19 treatment. Logistic regression analysis showed that year in which intracranial meningioma resection was performed did not show significant association with Clavien–Dindo grade IV complications and in-hospital mortality (OR, 1.23, 95% CI: 0.78–1.94) and prolonged length of stay (OR, 1.05, 95% CI: 0.84–1.32). Conclusion: Our findings show that neurosurgery practice in the US successfully adapted to the unforeseen challenges posed by COVD-19 and ensured the best quality of care to the patients.

Model-Based Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Hospitalization and Outcome in Germany, the Federal States and Districts

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenged many national health care systems, with hospitals reaching capacity limits of intensive care units (ICU). Thus, the estimation of acute local burden of ICUs is critical for appropriate management of health care resources. In this work, we applied non-linear mixed effects modeling to develop an epidemiological SARS-CoV-2 infection model for Germany, with its 16 federal states and 400 districts, that describes infections as well as COVID-19 inpatients, ICU patients with and without mechanical ventilation, recoveries, and fatalities during the first two waves of the pandemic until April 2021. Based on model analyses, covariates influencing the relation between infections and outcomes were explored. Non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed by governments were found to have a major impact on the spreading of SARS-CoV-2. Patient age and sex, the spread of variant B.1.1.7, and the testing strategy (number of tests performed weekly, rate of positive tests) affected the severity and outcome of recorded cases and could reduce the observed unexplained variability between the states. Modeling could reasonably link the discrepancies between fine-grained model simulations of the 400 German districts and the reported number of available ICU beds to coarse-grained COVID-19 patient distribution patterns within German regions.

Dual-mode SERS-based lateral flow assay strips for simultaneous diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza a virus

Since COVID-19 and flu have similar symptoms, they are difficult to distinguish without an accurate diagnosis. Therefore, it is critical to quickly and accurately determine which virus was infected and take appropriate treatments when a person has an infection. This study developed a dual-mode surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS)-based LFA strip that can diagnose SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus with high accuracy to reduce the false-negative problem of the commercial colorimetric LFA strip. Furthermore, using a single strip, it is feasible to detect SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus simultaneously. A clinical test was performed on 39 patient samples (28 SARS-CoV-2 positives, 6 influenza A virus positives, and 5 negatives), evaluating the clinical efficacy of the proposed dual-mode SERS-LFA strip. Our assay results for clinical samples show that the dual-mode LFA strip significantly reduced the false-negative rate for both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus.

Lagged meteorological impacts on COVID-19 incidence among high-risk counties in the United States-a spatiotemporal analysis

BACKGROUND

The associations between meteorological factors and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been discussed globally; however, because of short study periods, the lack of considering lagged effects, and different study areas, results from the literature were diverse and even contradictory.

OBJECTIVE

The primary purpose of this study is to conduct more reliable research to evaluate the lagged meteorological impacts on COVID-19 incidence by considering a relatively long study period and diversified high-risk areas in the United States.

METHODS

This study adopted the distributed lagged nonlinear model with a spatial function to analyze COVID-19 incidence predicted by multiple meteorological measures from March to October of 2020 across 203 high-risk counties in the United States. The estimated spatial function was further smoothed within the entire continental United States by the biharmonic spline interpolation.

RESULTS

Our findings suggest that the maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and precipitation were the best meteorological predictors. Most significantly positive associations were found from 3 to 11 lagged days in lower levels of each selected meteorological factor. In particular, a significantly positive association appeared in minimum relative humidity higher than 88.36% at 5-day lag. The spatial analysis also shows excessive risks in the north-central United States.

SIGNIFICANCE

The research findings can contribute to the implementation of early warning surveillance of COVID-19 by using weather forecasting for up to two weeks in high-risk counties.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and their relevance in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf countries

In the early stages of the pandemic, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Arab Gulf region relied on non-pharmaceutical therapies to limit the effect of the pandemic, much like other nations across the world. In comparison to other nations in the area or globally, these interventions were successful at lowering the healthcare burden. This was accomplished via the deterioration of the economy, education, and a variety of other societal activities. By the end of 2020, the promise of effective vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 have been realized, and vaccination programs have begun in developed countries, followed by the rest of the world. Despite this, there is still a long way to go in the fight against the disease. In order to explore disease transmission, vaccine rollout and prioritisation, as well as behavioural dynamics, we relied on an age-structured compartmental model. We examine how individual and social behaviour changes in response to the initiation of vaccination campaigns and the relaxation of non-pharmacological treatments. Overall, vaccination remains the most effective method of containing the disease and resuming normal life. Additionally, we evaluate several vaccination prioritisation schemes based on age group, behavioural responses, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination rollout speed. We applied our model to four Arab Gulf nations (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman), which were chosen for their low mortality rate compared to other countries in the region or worldwide, as well as their demographic and economic settings. We fitted the model using actual pandemic data in these countries. Our results suggest that vaccinations focused on the elderly and rapid vaccine distribution are critical for reducing disease resurgence. Our result also reinforces the cautious note that early relaxation of safety measures may compromise the vaccine's short-term advantages.

Lessons Learned From a Prospective Observational Study of U.S. Marine Recruits During a Supervised Quarantine, Spring‒Fall 2020

Introduction

Quarantining is commonly used to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, questions remain regarding what specific interventions are most effective.

Methods

After a 2-week home quarantine, U.S. Marine Corps recruits underwent a supervised 2-week quarantine at a hotel from August 11 to September 21, 2020. All recruits were assessed for symptoms through oral questioning and had their temperatures checked daily. Study participants answered a written clinical questionnaire and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by polymerase chain reaction shortly after arrival in quarantine and on Days 7 and 14. The results were compared with those of a previously reported Marine-supervised quarantine at a college campus from May until July 2020 utilizing the same study, laboratory, and statistical procedures.

Results

A total of 1,401 of 1,514 eligible recruits (92.5%) enrolled in the study, 93.1% of whom were male. At the time of enrollment, 12 of 1,401 (0.9%) participants were polymerase chain reaction positive for SARS-CoV-2, 9 of 1,376 (0.7%) were positive on Day 7, and 1 of 1,358 (0.1%) was positive on Day 14. Only 12 of 22 (54.5%) participants endorsed any symptoms on a study questionnaire, and none of the participants had an elevated temperature or endorsed symptoms during daily screening for SARS-CoV-2. Participation rate (92%) was much greater than the approximately 58.8% (1,848 of 3,143) rate observed in the previous Marine-supervised college campus quarantine, suggesting the changing attitudes of recruits during the pandemic (p<0.001). Approximately 1% of participants were quantitative polymerase chain reaction positive after self-quarantine in both studies.

Conclusions

Key findings include the shifting attitudes of young adults during the pandemic, the limitations of self-quarantine, and the ineffectiveness of daily temperature and symptom screening to identify SARS-CoV-2‒positive recruits.

Conceptual Design of the "Private Car" Self-Isolation Ecosystem for the 2019-nCoV Infection

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, confirmed and suspected cases of the disease have been increasing rapidly. The isolation of cases is one of the most effective methods for the control and containment of COVID-19 and has been rapidly popularized. Problems with isolation have gradually emerged, such as the inadequate allocation of isolation resources and the failure to properly resettle many of the suspected cases of the 2019-nCoV infection. In this paper, a self-isolation ecosystem of a rapid-deploying negative-pressurized "private car" is proposed for housing patients with 2019-nCoV infection, which could be lightweight, moderately sized and transparent to enable group supervision and communication. This "private car" isolation method aims to achieve self-isolation of patients and essentially solves the problem of where and how to isolate suspected cases while saving isolation resources and preventing the large-scale transmission of COVID-19.

Empirical evidence on the efficiency of backward contact tracing in COVID-19

Standard contact tracing practice for COVID-19 is to identify persons exposed to an infected person during the contagious period, assumed to start two days before symptom onset or diagnosis. In the first large cohort study on backward contact tracing for COVID-19, we extended the contact tracing window by 5 days, aiming to identify the source of the infection and persons infected by the same source. The risk of infection amongst these additional contacts was similar to contacts exposed during the standard tracing window and significantly higher than symptomatic individuals in a control group, leading to 42% more cases identified as direct contacts of an index case. Compared to standard practice, backward traced contacts required fewer tests and shorter quarantine. However, they were identified later in their infectious cycle if infected. Our results support implementing backward contact tracing when rigorous suppression of viral transmission is warranted.

Selection and characterisation of bioreceptors to develop nanoparticle-based lateral-flow immunoassays in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak

This manuscript aims at raising the attention of the scientific community to the need for better characterised bioreceptors for fast development of point-of-care diagnostic devices able to support mass frequency testing. Particularly, we present the difficulties encountered in finding suitable antibodies for the development of a lateral flow assay for detecting the nucleoprotein of SARS-CoV-2.

Cross-Border Transmissions of the Delta Substrain AY.29 During Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games

Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, postponed for the COVID-19 pandemic, were finally held in the summer of 2021. Just before the games, the Alpha variant was being replaced with the more contagious Delta variant. AY.4 substrain AY.29, which harbors two additional characteristic mutations of 5239C > T (NSP3 Y840Y) and 5514T > C (NSP3 V932A), emerged in Japan and became dominant in Tokyo by the time of the Olympic Games. Variants of SARS-CoV-2 genomes were performed to extract AY.29 Delta substrain samples with 5239C > T and 5514T > C. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to illustrate how AY.29 strains evolved and were introduced into countries abroad. Simultaneously, ancestral searches were performed for the overseas AY.29 samples to identify their origins in Japan using the maximum variant approach. As of January 10, 2022, 118 samples were identified in 20 countries. Phylogenetic analysis and ancestral searches identified 55 distinct introductions into those countries. The United States had 50 samples with 10 distinct introductions, and the United Kingdom had 13 distinct strains introduced in 18 samples. Other countries or regions with multiple introductions were Canada, Germany, South Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the Philippines. Among the 20 countries, most European and North American countries have vaccination rates over 50% and sufficient genomic surveillances are conducted; transmissions seem contained. However, propagation to unvaccinated regions might have caused unfathomable damages. Since samples in those unvaccinated countries are also undersampled with a longer lead time for data sharing, it will take longer to grasp the whole picture. More rigorous departure screenings for the participants from the unvaccinated countries might have been necessary.

Modeling the optimization of COVID-19 pooled testing: How many samples can be included in a single test?

Objectives

This study tries to answer the crucial question of how many biological samples can be optimally included in a single test for COVID-19 pooled testing.

Methods

It builds a novel theoretical model which links the local population to be tested in a region, the number of biological samples included in a single test, the “attitude” toward resource cost saving and time taken in a single test, as well as the corresponding resource cost function and time function, together. The numerical simulation results are then used to formulate the resource cost function as well as the time function. Finally, a loss function to be minimized is constructed and the optimal number of samples included is calculated.

Results

In a numerical example, we consider a region of 1 million population which needs to be tested for the infection of COVID-19. The solution calculates the optimal number of biological samples included in a single test as 4.254 when the time taken is given the weight of 50% under the infection probability of 10%. Other combinations of numerical results are also presented.

Conclusions

As we can see in our simulation results, given the infection probability at 10%, setting the number of biological samples included in a single test (in the integer level) at [4,6] is reasonable for a wide range of the subjective attitude between time and resource costs. Therefore, in the current practice, 5-mixed samples would sound better than the commonly used 10-mixed samples.