Systematic analysis of infectious disease outcomes by age shows lowest severity in school-age children

Exposure to doxycycline increases risk of carrying a broad range of enteric antimicrobial resistance determinants in an elderly cohort

OBJECTIVES

High rates of antibiotic prescription in residential aged care are likely to promote enteric carriage of antibiotic-resistant pathogens and increase the risk of antibiotic treatment failure. Despite their importance, relationships between antibiotic exposures and patterns of enteric resistance carriage in this population remain poorly understood.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional metagenomic cohort analysis of stool samples from residents of five long-term aged-care facilities in South Australia. Taxonomic composition was determined, and enteric carriage of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) was identified and quantified against the Comprehensive Antibiotic Resistance Database. Both the detection and abundance of stool taxa and ARGs were related to antibiotic exposures up to 12 months prior. Factors associated with the abundance of ARGs of high clinical concern were identified.

RESULTS

Stool samples were provided by 164 participants (median age: 88 years, IQR 81-93; 72% female). Sixty-one percent (n = 100) of participants were prescribed antibiotics at least once in the prior 12 months (median prescriptions: 4, range: 1-52), most commonly a penicillin (n = 55, 33.5%), cephalosporin (n = 53, 32.3%), diaminopyrimidine (trimethoprim) (n = 36, 22%), or tetracycline (doxycycline) (n = 21, 12.8%). More than 1100 unique ARGs, conferring resistance to 38 antibiotic classes, were identified, including 20 ARGs of high clinical concern. Multivariate logistic regression showed doxycycline exposure to be the greatest risk factor for high ARG abundance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=14.8, q<0.001) and a significant contributor to inter-class selection, particularly for ARGs relating to penicillins (aOR=3.1, q=0.0004) and cephalosporins (aOR=3.4, q=0.003). High enteric ARG abundance was associated with the number of separate antibiotic exposures (aOR: 6.4, q<0.001), exposures within the prior 30 days (aOR: 4.6, q=0.008) and prior 30-100 days (aOR: 2.6, q=0.008), high duration of antibiotic exposure (aOR: 7.9, q<0.001), and exposure to 3 or more antibiotic classes (aOR: 7.4, q<0.001). Carriage of one or more ARGs of high clinical concern was identified in 99% of participants (n = 162, median: 3, IQR: 2-4), involving 11 ARGs conferring resistance to aminoglycosides, four to beta-lactams, one to glycopeptides, three to fluoroquinolones, and one to oxazolidinones. Carriage of ARGs of high clinical concern was positively associated with exposure to doxycycline (aminoglycoside, fluoroquinolone, and oxazolidinone ARGs) and trimethoprim (fluoroquinolone and beta-lactam ARGs). Analysis of doxycycline impact on microbiota composition suggested that observed resistome changes arose principally through direct ARG selection, rather than through the antibiotic depletion of sensitive bacterial populations.

CONCLUSIONS

The gut microbiome of aged care residents is a major reservoir of antibiotic resistance. As a critical antibiotic in medical practice, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of doxycycline exposure on the gut resistome is paramount for informed antibiotic use, particularly in an evolving landscape of prophylactic applications. Near-universal asymptomatic carriage of clinically critical resistance determinants is highly concerning and reinforces the urgent need for improved management of antibiotic use in long-term aged care.

Perceived vulnerability to disease in pregnancy and parenthood and its impact on newborn health

Susceptibility to diseases and fear of infections might vary intra-individually, depending on life circumstances. The main aims of the current research were to examine whether perceived vulnerability to disease (PVD) is higher in expectant women and their partners as compared to their non-pregnant peers (Study 1), and to test whether a mother's disease aversion during pregnancy relates to health of her newborn (Study 2). In Study 1 we collected cross-sectional data from 412 men and women varying in parenthood status. Pregnant female participants were more likely to exhibit higher levels of PVD as compared with childless peers, although mothers also reported relatively high PVD scores. PVD in men, generally lower than that of women, seemed to be rather independent of their parenthood status. In Study 2, a sample of 200 pregnant women completed the PVD scale during the second pregnancy trimester and a follow-up survey after their child was born. We found that PVD in pregnant women was not related to further health outcomes in their newborns. Birth weight, average Apgar score, and general health of a newborn were not associated with the pregnancy-period mother's PVD score. However, the probability of giving birth to a child with 10 Apgar points was higher in younger mothers and tended to decrease with the increasing number of health issues before pregnancy. Overall, this research contributes to understanding of the health-oriented beliefs of expectant parents and parents of infants, but it also shows that the possible, PVD-related disease avoidance has a relatively little effect on basic markers of a newborn's health.

Mathematical modelling of the 100-day target for vaccine availability after the detection of a novel pathogen: A case study in Indonesia

Globally, there has been a commitment to produce and distribute a vaccine within 100 days of the next pandemic. This 100-day target will place pressure on countries to make swift decisions on how to optimise vaccine delivery. We used data from the COVID-19 pandemic to inform mathematical modelling of future pandemics in Indonesia for a wide range of pandemic characteristics. We explored the benefits of vaccination programs with different start dates, rollout capacity, and age-specific prioritisation within a year of the detection of a novel pathogen. Early vaccine availability, public uptake of vaccines, and capacity for consistent vaccine delivery were the key factors influencing vaccine benefit. Monitoring age-specific severity will be essential for optimising vaccine benefit. Our study complements existing pathogen-specific pandemic preparedness plans and contributes a tool for the rapid assessment of future threats in Indonesia and similar middle-income countries.

Light-responsive functional nanomaterials as pioneering therapeutics: a paradigm shift to combat age-related disorders

Aging, marked by dysregulated cellular systems, gives rise to a spectrum of age-related disorders, including neurodegeneration, atherosclerosis, immunosenescence, and musculoskeletal issues. These conditions contribute significantly to the global disease burden, posing challenges to health span and economic resources. Current therapeutic approaches, although diverse in mechanism, often fall short in targeting the underlying cellular pathologies. They fail to address the issues compounded by altered pharmacokinetics in the elderly. Nanotechnology emerges as a transformative solution, offering tissue-specific targeted therapies through nanoparticles. Functional nanomaterials (FNMs) respond to internal or external stimuli, with light-responsive nanomaterials gaining prominence. Harnessing the benefits of deep tissue penetration and ease of manipulation particularly in the near-infrared spectrum, light-responsive FNMs present innovative strategies for age-related comorbidities. This review comprehensively summarizes the potential of light-responsive FNM-based approaches for targeting cellular environments in age-related disorders, and also emphasizes the advantages over traditional treatment modalities. Specifically, it focuses on the development of various classes of light-responsive functional nanomaterials including plasmonic nanomaterials, nanomaterials as carriers, upconversion nanomaterials, 2D nanomaterials, transition metal oxide and dichalcogenide nanomaterials and carbon-based nanomaterials against age related diseases. We foresee that such advanced developments in the field of nanotechnology could provide a new hope for clinical diagnosis and treatment of age-related disorders.

Innate immunity in peripheral tissues is differentially impaired under normal and endotoxic conditions in aging

Chronic low-grade inflammation is a hallmark of aging, aka "inflammaging", which is linked to a wide range of age-associated diseases. Immune dysfunction increases disease susceptibility, and increases morbidity and mortality of aging. Innate immune cells, including monocytes, macrophages and neutrophils, are the first responders of host defense and the key mediators of various metabolic and inflammatory insults. Currently, the understanding of innate immune programming in aging is largely fragmented. Here we investigated the phenotypic and functional properties of innate immune cells in various peripheral tissues of young and aged mice under normal and endotoxic conditions. Under the steady state, aged mice showed elevated pro-inflammatory monocytes/macrophages in peripheral blood, adipose tissue, liver, and colon. Under lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced inflammatory state, the innate immune cells of aged mice showed a different response to LPS stimulus than that of young mice. LPS-induced immune responses displayed differential profiles in different tissues and cell types. In the peripheral blood, when responding to LPS, the aged mice showed higher neutrophils, but lower pro-inflammatory monocytes than that in young mice. In the peritoneal fluid, while young mice exhibited significantly elevated pro-inflammatory neutrophils and macrophages in response to LPS, aged mice exhibited decreased pro-inflammatory neutrophils and variable cytokine responses in macrophages. In the adipose tissue, LPS induced less infiltrated neutrophils but more infiltrated macrophages in old mice than young mice. In the liver, aged mice showed a more robust increase of pro-inflammatory macrophages compared to that in young mice under LPS stimulation. In colon, macrophages showed relatively mild response to LPS in both young and old mice. We have further tested bone-marrow derived macrophages (BMDM) from young and aged mice, we found that BMDM from aged mice have impaired polarization, displaying higher expression of pro-inflammatory markers than those from young mice. These data collectively suggest that innate immunity in peripheral tissues is impaired in aging, and the dysregulation of immunity is tissue- and cell-dependent. Our findings in the rodent model underscore the complexity of aging immunity. Further investigation is needed to determine whether the immune profile observed in aged mice is applicable in age-associated diseases in humans.

Quantifying the risk of spillover reduction programs for human health

Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases sufficiently rapidly with age. If, however, immunity wanes over time and reinfection is possible, our results reveal that negative health impacts of spillover reduction become substantially less likely. When our model is parameterized using published data on Lassa virus in West Africa, it predicts that negative health outcomes are possible, but likely to be restricted to a small subset of populations where spillover is unusually intense. Together, our results suggest that adverse consequences of spillover reduction programs are unlikely but that the public health gains observed immediately after spillover reduction may fade over time as the age structure of immunity gradually re-equilibrates to a reduced force of infection.

Evolutionary principles for modifying pathogen virulence

Current methods for combatting infectious diseases are largely limited to the prevention of infection, enhancing host immunity (via vaccination), and administration of small molecules to slow the growth of or kill pathogens (e.g. antimicrobials). Beyond efforts to deter the rise of antimicrobial resistance, little consideration is given to pathogen evolution. Natural selection will favor different levels of virulence under different circumstances. Experimental studies and a wealth of theoretical work have identified many likely evolutionary determinants of virulence. Some of these, such as transmission dynamics, are amenable to modification by clinicians and public health practitioners. In this article, we provide a conceptual overview of virulence, followed by an analysis of modifiable evolutionary determinants of virulence including vaccinations, antibiotics, and transmission dynamics. Finally, we discuss both the importance and limitations of taking an evolutionary approach to reducing pathogen virulence.

Aerosol generation during pediatric otolaryngological procedures

OBJECTIVES

To assess the extent of staff exposure to aerosol generation in common pediatric otorhinolaryngological procedures (tonsillotomies, adenoidectomies, and tympanostomies) and determine the surgical phases responsible for most aerosol generation in these procedures.

METHODS

Aerosol generation was measured during 35 pediatric otolaryngological procedures using an Optical Particle Sizer that measures aerosol concentrations for particle sizes between 0.3 and 10.0 μm. The different phases of and instruments used in each procedure were logged. Operating room background aerosol levels and coughing were used as references.

RESULTS

Total aerosol concentrations were significantly higher during tonsillotomies and adenoidectomies when compared to tympanostomies (p = 0.011 and p = 0.042) and to empty room background aerosol concentrations (p = 0.0057 and p < 0.001). Aerosol concentration during tonsillotomies did not differ from coughing, which is considered as standard for high-risk aerosol procedures. During tympanostomies, aerosol concentrations were even lower than during perioperative concentrations. No statistically significant difference in aerosol generation comparing suction, electrocautery, cold instruments, and paracentesis was found.

CONCLUSION

According to the results of this study, tympanostomies are low-risk aerosol-generating procedures. On the other hand, pediatric tonsillotomies produced aerosols comparable to coughing, pointing to them being significantly aerosol-producing procedures and viral transmission is theoretically possible intraoperatively.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis A virus among people born before and after implementation of universal vaccination in Argentina

BACKGROUND

Until 2005, when a single dose of vaccine was implemented in one-year-old children, the Hepatitis A virus (HAV) was responsible for approximately 90% of acute hepatitis cases in the paediatric population in Argentina. However, despite vaccination success, sporadic outbreaks of HAV still occur among adults. This study aimed to assess the seroepidemiology of HAV in Argentina, analysing IgG and IgM antibodies against HAV in a large population, both vaccinated and unvaccinated.

METHODS

The study included 16,982 patients attending a hospital from 2001 to 2023. The cohort was divided into two groups: 16,638 individuals who were not reached by the vaccination program implemented in 2005 and 344 children who were covered by the universal vaccination.

RESULTS

Anti-HAV IgG was detected in 56.7% of cases. The rate was significantly higher in individuals born after 2005 (77.7%) compared to those born before (56.3%), p < 0.001. The age groups 19-40 and 41-60 years showed the anti-HAV IgG lowest rates. On the other hand, 100/3956 cases (2.5%) with suspected acute hepatitis were positive for Anti-HAVIgM. Notably, none of these were born after the mandatory vaccine rollout.

CONCLUSIONS

The study of this large cohort contributes to the understanding of the seroepidemiology of HAV. Although the implementation of the vaccine achieved its main goal, the age segment between 19 and 60 years does not reach the estimated threshold to achieve herd immunity. These findings reveal the importance of targeting vaccination campaigns, provide essential insights for public health planning, and guide future immunisation strategies against HAV in Argentina.

Role of the Senescence-Associated Factor Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4 in the Pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

During cellular senescence, persistent growth arrest and changes in protein expression programs are accompanied by a senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP). In this study, we detected the upregulation of the SASP-related protein dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DDP4) in human primary lung cells rendered senescent by exposure to ionizing radiation. DPP4 is an exopeptidase that plays a crucial role in the cleavage of various proteins, resulting in the loss of N-terminal dipeptides and proinflammatory effects. Interestingly, our data revealed an association between severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and DDP4, namely that DPP4 levels increased in the plasma of patients with COVID-19 and were correlated with age and disease progression. Although we could not determine the direct effect of DDP4 on viral replication, mechanistic studies in cell culture revealed a negative impact on the expression of the tight junction protein zonula occludens-1 (ZO-1), which contributes to epithelial barrier function. Mass spectrometry analysis indicated that DPP4 overexpressing cells exhibited a decrease in ZO-1 and increased expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines. By investigating the effect of DPP4 on the barrier function of human primary cells, we detected an increase in ZO-1 using DPP4 inhibitors. These results provide an important contribution to our understanding of DPP4 in the context of senescence, suggesting that DPP4 plays a major role as part of the SASP. Our results provide evidence that cellular senescence, a hallmark of aging, has an important impact on respiratory infections.

Infectious Diseases and Secondary Antibody Deficiency in Patients from a Mesoregion of São Paulo State, Brazil

Our aim was to determine the secondary antibody deficiency (SAD) profiles of patients in a mesoregion of São Paulo state, Brazil, focusing on infectious diseases. Demographic characteristics, and clinical and laboratory data were obtained from electronic files; infections were classified as organ-specific and graded as mild, moderate, life-threatening, and fatal. Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) accounted for 30% of patients, nephrotic syndrome (NS) 25%, chronic lymphocyte leukemia 20%, and multiple myeloma 15%. Patients with NS were younger than those in other groups, and hypo-γ-globulinemia was detected in 94.1%, IgG < 400 mg/dL in 60.0%, IgA < 40 mg/dL in 55.0%, and CD19 < 20 cells/mm3 in 30.0%. One hundred and one infections were found; 82.1% were classified as mild or moderate, 7.9% as life-threatening, and 3.0% as fatal. Respiratory tract infections were more prevalent (41.5%), and pneumonia accounted for 19.8%. Lower levels of infections were found in patients with NS compared with NHL (p = 0.0001). Most patients progressed to hypo-γ-globulinemia and SAD after treatment with immunosuppressants, and mild and moderate infections were predominant. These therapies are increasing in patients with different diseases; therefore, monitoring hypo-γ-globulinemia and infections may help to identify patients at high risk for severe complications, antibiotic prophylaxis or treatment, and immunoglobulin replacement.

Factors influencing CDC- recommended preventative behaviors through the COVID-19 pandemic in college students

Objective: To understand how student perceptions of physical health and generalized concern about infection influenced engagement in COVID-19 preventive behaviors. Participants: 418 full-time undergraduate and graduate students attending a public university in South Carolina, USA. Methods: A self-administered survey was distributed during the 2020-2021 academic year. The health belief model, structural equation modeling, and regression methods were used to evaluate associations between students' perceived physical health and the use of CDC-recommended mitigation strategies. Results: Our findings suggest that an individual's perception of their own physical health impacted engagement in preventive behaviors by influencing concerns about disease severity (p = 0.01) and susceptibility (p = 0.03). However, perceived physical health was not associated with perceived benefits (p = 0.21), barriers (p = 0.57), or self-efficacy (p = 0.62) of mitigation strategies. Conclusions: Intrapersonal factors may play a strong role in the way a student undertakes disease control and prevention.

Coevolution of Age-Structured Tolerance and Virulence

Hosts can evolve a variety of defences against parasitism, including resistance (which prevents or reduces the spread of infection) and tolerance (which protects against virulence). Some organisms have evolved different levels of tolerance at different life-stages, which is likely to be the result of coevolution with pathogens, and yet it is currently unclear how coevolution drives patterns of age-specific tolerance. Here, we use a model of tolerance-virulence coevolution to investigate how age structure influences coevolutionary dynamics. Specifically, we explore how coevolution unfolds when tolerance and virulence (disease-induced mortality) are age-specific compared to when these traits are uniform across the host lifespan. We find that coevolutionary cycling is relatively common when host tolerance is age-specific, but cycling does not occur when tolerance is the same across all ages. We also find that age-structured tolerance can lead to selection for higher virulence in shorter-lived than in longer-lived hosts, whereas non-age-structured tolerance always leads virulence to increase with host lifespan. Our findings therefore suggest that age structure can have substantial qualitative impacts on host-pathogen coevolution.

Adaptive immune responses to two-dose COVID-19 vaccine series in healthy Canadian adults ≥ 50 years: a prospective, observational cohort study

To evaluate immune responses to COVID-19 vaccines in adults aged 50 years and older, spike protein (S)-specific antibody concentration, avidity, and function (via angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) inhibition surrogate neutralization and antibody dependent cellular phagocytosis (ADCP)), as well as S-specific T cells were quantified via activation induced marker (AIM) assay in response to two-dose series. Eighty-four adults were vaccinated with either: mRNA/mRNA (mRNA-1273 and/or BNT162b2); ChAdOx1-S/mRNA; or ChAdOx1-S/ChAdOx1-S. Anti-S IgG concentrations, ADCP scores and ACE2 inhibiting antibody concentrations were highest at one-month post-second dose and declined by four-months post-second dose for all groups. mRNA/mRNA and ChAdOx1-S/mRNA schedules had significantly higher antibody responses than ChAdOx1-S/ChAdOx1-S. CD8+ T-cell responses one-month post-second dose were associated with increased ACE2 surrogate neutralization. Antibody avidity (total relative avidity index) did not change between one-month and four-months post-second dose and did not significantly differ between groups by four-months post-second dose. In determining COVID-19 correlates of protection, a measure that considers both antibody concentration and avidity should be considered.

Improving hand hygiene of young children with a digital intervention: a cluster-randomised controlled field trial

Contagious diseases that affect young children place a great burden on them and their families. Proper hand hygiene is an important measure to reduce the disease burden, however, its implementation in day care centres is challenging. This paper introduces a digital intervention to support independent and good handwashing among young children. The intervention leverages animated instructions triggered by water and soap use, together with a symbolic reward shown to children on a screen during and immediately after handwashing. We tested the intervention in a pre-registered, cluster-randomised controlled field trial in 4 day care centres in Finland and Germany with 162 children over 42 days. The intervention increased soaping time, used as a proxy for handwashing quality, by 5.30 s (+ 62%, p < 0.001). The effect occurs immediately at the onset of the intervention and is maintained throughout the intervention phase.

Antimicrobial resistance prevalence in bloodstream infection in 29 European countries by age and sex: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic usage, contact with high transmission healthcare settings as well as changes in immune system function all vary by a patient's age and sex. Yet, most analyses of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) ignore demographic indicators and provide only country-level resistance prevalence values. This study aimed to address this knowledge gap by quantifying how resistance prevalence and incidence of bloodstream infection (BSI) varied by age and sex across bacteria and antibiotics in Europe.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used patient-level data collected as part of routine surveillance between 2015 and 2019 on BSIs in 29 European countries from the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net). A total of 6,862,577 susceptibility results from isolates with age, sex, and spatial information from 944,520 individuals were used to characterise resistance prevalence patterns for 38 different bacterial species and antibiotic combinations, and 47% of these susceptibility results were from females, with a similar age distribution in both sexes (mean of 66 years old). A total of 349,448 isolates from 2019 with age and sex metadata were used to calculate incidence. We fit Bayesian multilevel regression models by country, laboratory code, sex, age, and year of sample to quantify resistant prevalence and provide estimates of country-, bacteria-, and drug-family effect variation. We explore our results in greater depths for 2 of the most clinically important bacteria-antibiotic combinations (aminopenicillin resistance in Escherichia coli and methicillin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus) and present a simplifying indicative index of the difference in predicted resistance between old (aged 100) and young (aged 1). At the European level, we find distinct patterns in resistance prevalence by age. Trends often vary more within an antibiotic family, such as fluroquinolones, than within a bacterial species, such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Clear resistance increases by age for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) contrast with a peak in resistance to several antibiotics at approximately 30 years of age for P. aeruginosa. For most bacterial species, there was a u-shaped pattern of infection incidence with age, which was higher in males. An important exception was E. coli, for which there was an elevated incidence in females between the ages of 15 and 40. At the country-level, subnational differences account for a large amount of resistance variation (approximately 38%), and there are a range of functional forms for the associations between age and resistance prevalence. For MRSA, age trends were mostly positive, with 72% (n = 21) of countries seeing an increased resistance between males aged 1 and 100 years and a greater change in resistance in males. This compares to age trends for aminopenicillin resistance in E. coli which were mostly negative (males: 93% (n = 27) of countries see decreased resistance between those aged 1 and 100 years) with a smaller change in resistance in females. A change in resistance prevalence between those aged 1 and 100 years ranged up to 0.51 (median, 95% quantile of model simulated prevalence using posterior parameter ranges 0.48, 0.55 in males) for MRSA in one country but varied between 0.16 (95% quantile 0.12, 0.21 in females) to -0.27 (95% quantile -0.4, -0.15 in males) across individual countries for aminopenicillin resistance in E. coli. Limitations include potential bias due to the nature of routine surveillance and dependency of results on model structure.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that the prevalence of resistance in BSIs in Europe varies substantially by bacteria and antibiotic over the age and sex of the patient shedding new light on gaps in our understanding of AMR epidemiology. Future work is needed to determine the drivers of these associations in order to more effectively target transmission and antibiotic stewardship interventions.

Wastewater-based epidemiology applied at the building-level reveals distinct virome profiles based on the age of the contributing individuals

BACKGROUND

Human viruses released into the environment can be detected and characterized in wastewater. The study of wastewater virome offers a consolidated perspective on the circulation of viruses within a population. Because the occurrence and severity of viral infections can vary across a person's lifetime, studying the virome in wastewater samples contributed by various demographic segments can provide valuable insights into the prevalence of viral infections within these segments. In our study, targeted enrichment sequencing was employed to characterize the human virome in wastewater at a building-level scale. This was accomplished through passive sampling of wastewater in schools, university settings, and nursing homes in two cities in Catalonia. Additionally, sewage from a large urban wastewater treatment plant was analysed to serve as a reference for examining the collective excreted human virome.

RESULTS

The virome obtained from influent wastewater treatment plant samples showcased the combined viral presence from individuals of varying ages, with astroviruses and human bocaviruses being the most prevalent, followed by human adenoviruses, polyomaviruses, and papillomaviruses. Significant variations in the viral profiles were observed among the different types of buildings studied. Mamastrovirus 1 was predominant in school samples, salivirus and human polyomaviruses JC and BK in the university settings while nursing homes showed a more balanced distribution of viral families presenting papillomavirus and picornaviruses and, interestingly, some viruses linked to immunosuppression.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the utility of building-level wastewater-based epidemiology as an effective tool for monitoring the presence of viruses circulating within specific age groups. It provides valuable insights for public health monitoring and epidemiological studies.

Mosquito ageing modulates the development, virulence and transmission potential of pathogens

Host age variation is a striking source of heterogeneity that can shape the evolution and transmission dynamic of pathogens. Compared with vertebrate systems, our understanding of the impact of host age on invertebrate-pathogen interactions remains limited. We examined the influence of mosquito age on key life-history traits driving human malaria transmission. Females of Anopheles coluzzii, a major malaria vector, belonging to three age classes (4-, 8- and 12-day-old), were experimentally infected with Plasmodium falciparum field isolates. Our findings revealed reduced competence in 12-day-old mosquitoes, characterized by lower oocyst/sporozoite rates and intensities compared with younger mosquitoes. Despite shorter median longevities in older age classes, infected 12-day-old mosquitoes exhibited improved survival, suggesting that the infection might act as a fountain of youth for older mosquitoes specifically. The timing of sporozoite appearance in the salivary glands remained consistent across mosquito age classes, with an extrinsic incubation period of approximately 13 days. Integrating these results into an epidemiological model revealed a lower vectorial capacity for older mosquitoes compared with younger ones, albeit still substantial owing to extended longevity in the presence of infection. Considering age heterogeneity provides valuable insights for ecological and epidemiological studies, informing targeted control strategies to mitigate pathogen transmission.

Trends in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Albania during the 2021-2022 pandemic year

Background

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for understanding population immunity and providing insights into public health policies. Limited data exist on this from Albania and other Eastern European countries. This study aimed to investigate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Albania, comparing August 2021 and August 2022 data from two representative samples of the general population. The objective was to understand the temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies across age groups and assess the impacts of natural infection and vaccination on population immunity.

Methods

This longitudinal study was conducted in two consecutive cross-sectional assessments 12 months apart in Albania's urban all-ages population. IgG anti-Spike-1 and anti-Nucleoprotein SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured using ELISA, focusing on seropositivity rates and antibody levels.

Methods

The study encompassed 2143 and 2183 individuals in August 2021 and 2022, respectively, with the anti-S1-IgG seropositivity rate escalating from 70.9 ​% to 92.1 ​%. In 2021, seroprevalence ranged from 49.6 ​% (0-15 years) to 82 ​% (>60 years). By August 2022, it surpassed 90 ​% in most age groups, except 0-15 years (73.8 ​%). "Hybrid" immunity (COVID-19+ and Vaccine+) reached 56.6 ​% in 2022, or 2.8 times higher than in 2021, exhibiting the highest antibody levels compared to the only vaccinated or previously COVID-19-infected individuals.

Conclusion

This study highlights an overall 94 % seroprevalence in the Albanian population in August 2022 and robust "hybrid" immunity, suggesting substantial protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2. The lower immunity in the 0-15 age group underscores the necessity for youth-targeted vaccine campaigns. These findings provide valuable insights for shaping healthcare measures and vaccination policies.

The economics of aging with infectious and chronic diseases

We develop an economic model of aging in which the susceptibility and severity of infectious diseases depend on the accumulated health deficits (immunosenescence) and the life history of infections affects the accumulation of chronic health deficits (inflammaging). Individuals invest in their health to slow down health deficit accumulation and take measures to protect themselves from infectious diseases. We calibrate the model for an average American and explore how health expenditure, life expectancy, and the value of life depend on individual characteristics, medical technology, and the disease environment. We then use counterfactual computational experiments of the U.S. epidemiological transition 1860-2010 to show that the decline of infectious diseases caused a substantial decline of chronic diseases and contributed more to increasing life expectancy than advances in the treatment of chronic diseases.

Infectious disease in the Pleistocene: Old friends or old foes?

The impact of endemic and epidemic disease on humans has traditionally been seen as a comparatively recent historical phenomenon associated with the Neolithisation of human groups, an increase in population size led by sedentarism, and increasing contact with domesticated animals as well as species occupying opportunistic symbiotic and ectosymbiotic relationships with humans. The orthodox approach is that Neolithisation created the conditions for increasing population size able to support a reservoir of infectious disease sufficient to act as selective pressure. This orthodoxy is the result of an overly simplistic reliance on skeletal data assuming that no skeletal lesions equated to a healthy individual, underpinned by the assumption that hunter-gatherer groups were inherently healthy while agricultural groups acted as infectious disease reservoirs. The work of van Blerkom, Am. J. Phys. Anthropol., vol. suppl 37 (2003), Wolfe et al., Nature, vol. 447 (2007) and Houldcroft and Underdown, Am. J. Phys. Anthropol., vol. 160, (2016) has changed this landscape by arguing that humans and pathogens have long been fellow travelers. The package of infectious diseases experienced by our ancient ancestors may not be as dissimilar to modern infectious diseases as was once believed. The importance of DNA, from ancient and modern sources, to the study of the antiquity of infectious disease, and its role as a selective pressure cannot be overstated. Here we consider evidence of ancient epidemic and endemic infectious diseases with inferences from modern and ancient human and hominin DNA, and from circulating and extinct pathogen genomes. We argue that the pandemics of the past are a vital tool to unlock the weapons needed to fight pandemics of the future.

Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality

BACKGROUND

Increasing life expectancy and persistently low fertility levels have led to old population age structures in most high-income countries, and population ageing is expected to continue or even accelerate in the coming decades. While older adults on average have few interactions that potentially could lead to disease transmission, their morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases, respiratory infections in particular, remain substantial. We aim to explore how population ageing affects the future transmission dynamics and mortality burden of emerging respiratory infections.

METHODS

Using longitudinal individual-level data from population registers, we model the Belgian population with evolving age and household structures, and explicitly consider long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Three scenarios are presented for the future proportion of older adults living in LTCFs. For each demographic scenario, we simulate outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and a novel influenza A virus in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 and distinguish between household and community transmission. We estimate attack rates by age and household size/type, as well as disease-related deaths and the associated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost.

RESULTS

As the population is ageing, small households and LTCFs become more prevalent. Additionally, families with children become smaller (i.e. low fertility, single-parent families). The overall attack rate slightly decreases as the population is ageing, but to a larger degree for influenza than for SARS-CoV-2 due to differential age-specific attack rates. Nevertheless, the number of deaths and QALY losses per 1,000 people is increasing for both infections and at a speed influenced by the share living in LTCFs.

CONCLUSION

Population ageing is associated with smaller outbreaks of COVID-19 and influenza, but at the same time it is causing a substantially larger burden of mortality, even if the proportion of LTCF residents were to decrease. These relationships are influenced by age patterns in epidemiological parameters. Not only the shift in the age distribution, but also the induced changes in the household structures are important to consider when assessing the potential impact of population ageing on the transmission and burden of emerging respiratory infections.

A bacterial pathogen induces developmental slowing by high reactive oxygen species and mitochondrial dysfunction in Caenorhabditis elegans

Host-pathogen interactions are complex by nature, and the host developmental stage increases this complexity. By utilizing Caenorhabditis elegans larvae as the host and the bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa as the pathogen, we investigated how a developing organism copes with pathogenic stress. By screening 36 P. aeruginosa isolates, we found that the CF18 strain causes a severe but reversible developmental delay via induction of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and mitochondrial dysfunction. While the larvae upregulate mitophagy, antimicrobial, and detoxification genes, mitochondrial unfolded protein response (UPRmt) genes are repressed. Either antioxidant or iron supplementation rescues the phenotypes. We examined the virulence factors of CF18 via transposon mutagenesis and RNA sequencing (RNA-seq). We found that non-phenazine toxins that are regulated by quorum sensing (QS) and the GacA/S system are responsible for developmental slowing. This study highlights the importance of ROS levels and mitochondrial health as determinants of developmental rate and how pathogens can attack these important features.

COVID-19-Related Age Profiles for SARS-CoV-2 Variants in England and Wales and States of the USA (2020 to 2022): Impact on All-Cause Mortality

Since 2020, COVID-19 has caused serious mortality around the world. Given the ambiguity in establishing COVID-19 as the direct cause of death, we first investigate the effects of age and sex on all-cause mortality during 2020 and 2021 in England and Wales. Since infectious agents have their own unique age profile for death, we use a 9-year time series and several different methods to adjust single-year-of-age deaths in England and Wales during 2019 (the pre-COVID-19 base year) to a pathogen-neutral single-year-of-age baseline. This adjusted base year is then used to confirm the widely reported higher deaths in males for most ages above 43 in both 2020 and 2021. During 2020 (+COVID-19 but no vaccination), both male and female population-adjusted deaths significantly increased above age 35. A significant reduction in all-cause mortality among both males and females aged 75+ could be demonstrated in 2021 during the widespread COVID-19 vaccination period; however, deaths below age 75 progressively increased. This finding arises from a mix of vaccination coverage and year-of-age profiles of deaths for the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition, specific effects of age around puberty were demonstrated, where females had higher deaths than males. There is evidence that year-of-birth cohorts may also be involved, indicating that immune priming to specific pathogen outbreaks in the past may have led to lower deaths for some birth cohorts. To specifically identify the age profile for the COVID-19 variants from 2020 to 2023, we employ the proportion of total deaths at each age that are potentially due to or 'with' COVID-19. The original Wuhan strain and the Alpha variant show somewhat limited divergence in the age profile, with the Alpha variant shifting to a moderately higher proportion of deaths below age 84. The Delta variant specifically targeted individuals below age 65. The Omicron variants showed a significantly lower proportion of overall mortality, with a markedly higher relative proportion of deaths above age 65, steeply increasing with age to a maximum around 100 years of age. A similar age profile for the variants can be seen in the age-banded deaths in US states, although they are slightly obscured by using age bands rather than single years of age. However, the US data shows that higher male deaths are greatly dependent on age and the COVID variant. Deaths assessed to be 'due to' COVID-19 (as opposed to 'involving' COVID-19) in England and Wales were especially overestimated in 2021 relative to the change in all-cause mortality. This arose as a by-product of an increase in COVID-19 testing capacity in late 2020. Potential structure-function mechanisms for the age-specificity of SARS-CoV-2 variants are discussed, along with potential roles for small noncoding RNAs (miRNAs). Using data from England, it is possible to show that the unvaccinated do indeed have a unique age profile for death from each variant and that vaccination alters the shape of the age profile in a manner dependent on age, sex, and the variant. The question is posed as to whether vaccines based on different variants carry a specific age profile.

Age-based spatial disparities of COVID-19 incidence rates in the United States counties

COVID-19 incidence disparities have been documented in the literature, but the different driving factors among age groups have yet to be explicitly explained. This study proposes a community-based COVID-19 spatial disparity model, considering different levels of geographic units (individual and community), various contextual variables, multiple COVID-19 outcomes, and different geographic contextual elements. The model assumes the existence of age nonstationarity effects on health determinants, suggesting that health effects of contextual variables vary among place and age groups. Based on this conceptual model and theory, the study selected 62 county-level variables for 1,748 U.S. counties during the pandemic, and created an Adjustable COVID-19 Potential Exposure Index (ACOVIDPEI) using principal component analysis (PCA). The validation was done with 71,521,009 COVID-19 patients in the U.S. from January 2020 through June 2022, with high incidence rates shifting from the Midwest, South Carolina, North Carolina, Arizona, and Tennessee to the West and East coasts. This study corroborates the age nonstationarity effect of health determinants on COVID-19 exposures. These results empirically identify the geographic disparities of COVID-19 incidence rates among age groups and provide the evidentiary guide for targeting pandemic recovery, mitigation, and preparedness in communities.

Grandparental co-residence and grandchild survival: the role of resource competition in a pre-industrial population

Although grandparents are and have been important alloparents to their grandchildren, they are not necessarily only beneficial but can also compete with grandchildren over limited resources. Competition over parental care or other resources may exist especially if grandparents live in the same household with grandchildren and it can be dependent on grandchild age. By utilizing demographic data collected from historic population registers in Finland between 1761 and 1895 (study sample n = 4041) we investigate whether grandparents living in the same household with grandchildren are detrimental or beneficial for grandchild survival. Having a living but not co-residing grandmother or grandfather were both associated with better survival whereas having a co-resident grandfather was associated with lower chance to survive for infants (age < 1 year). Separating the effect between maternal and paternal grandparents and grandmothers and grandfathers revealed no differences in the effects between lineages. Negative effect of having a co-residing grandfather was not significant when grandfathers were separated for lineage specific models. These results implicate that accounting for the co-residence status and child's age, grandparents were mostly beneficial when not co-residing with very young children and that having a co-residing grandfather at that age could be associated with lower chances to survive. Predictions made by grandmother hypothesis and resource competition both received support. The results presented here also offered comparison points to preindustrial and contemporary three-generational families.

The Evolution of the Age of Onset of Resistance to Infectious Disease

Many organisms experience an increase in disease resistance as they age, but the time of life at which this change occurs varies. Increases in resistance are partially due to prior exposure and physiological constraints, but these cannot fully explain the observed patterns of age-related resistance. An alternative explanation is that developing resistance at an earlier age incurs costs to other life-history traits. Here, we explore how trade-offs with host reproduction or mortality affect the evolution of the onset of resistance, depending on when during the host's life cycle the costs are paid (only when resistance is developing, only when resistant or throughout the lifetime). We find that the timing of the costs is crucial to determining evolutionary outcomes, often making the difference between resistance developing at an early or late age. Accurate modelling of biological systems therefore relies on knowing not only the shape of trade-offs but also when they take effect. We also find that the evolution of the rate of onset of resistance can result in evolutionary branching. This provides an alternative, possible evolutionary history of populations which are dimorphic in disease resistance, where the rate of onset of resistance has diversified rather than the level of resistance.

Endotoxin Tolerance Acquisition and Altered Hepatic Fatty Acid Profile in Aged Mice

(1) Background: Aging is linked to an altered immune response and metabolism. Inflammatory conditions, such as sepsis, COVID-19, and steatohepatitis are more prevalent in the elderly and steatosis is linked both to severe COVID-19 and sepsis. We hypothesized that aging is linked to a loss of endotoxin tolerance, which normally protects the host from excessive inflammation, and that this is accompanied by elevated levels of hepatic lipids. (2) Methods: An in vivo lipopolysaccharide (LPS) tolerance model in young and old mice was used and the cytokine serum levels were measured by ELISA. Cytokine and toll-like receptor gene expression was determined by qPCR in the lungs and the liver; hepatic fatty acid composition was assessed by GC–MS. (3) Results: The old mice showed a distinct potential for endotoxin tolerance as suggested by the serum cytokine levels and gene expression in the lung tissue. Endotoxin tolerance was less pronounced in the livers of the aged mice. However, the fatty acid composition strongly differed in the liver tissues of the young and old mice with a distinct change in the ratio of C18 to C16 fatty acids. (4) Conclusions: Endotoxin tolerance is maintained in advanced age, but changes in the metabolic tissue homeostasis may lead to an altered immune response in old individuals.

The evolution of age-specific resistance to infectious disease

Innate, infection-preventing resistance often varies between host life stages. Juveniles are more resistant than adults in some species, whereas the opposite pattern is true in others. This variation cannot always be explained by prior exposure or physiological constraints and so it has been hypothesized that trade-offs with other life-history traits may be involved. However, little is known about how trade-offs between various life-history traits and resistance at different life stages affect the evolution of age-specific resistance. Here, we use a mathematical model to explore how trade-offs with natural mortality, reproduction and maturation combine to affect the evolution of resistance at different life stages. Our results show that certain combinations of trade-offs have substantial effects on whether adults or juveniles are more resistant, with trade-offs between juvenile resistance and adult reproduction inherently more costly than trade-offs involving maturation or mortality (all else being equal), resulting in consistent evolution of lower resistance at the juvenile stage even when infection causes a lifelong fecundity reduction. Our model demonstrates how the differences between patterns of age-structured resistance seen in nature may be explained by variation in the trade-offs involved and our results suggest conditions under which trade-offs tend to select for lower resistance in juveniles than adults.

Measuring the Impact of a Delay in Care on Pediatric Otolaryngologic Surgery Completion

Objective: To determine if postponement of elective pediatric otorhinolaryngology surgeries results in a change in overall healthcare utilization and if there is any commensurate impact on disease progression. Methods: We identified patients ≤18 years of age whose surgeries were postponed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic-related shutdown. We then tracked patients' rate of and patterns of rescheduling surgery. Surveys were also sent to caregivers to better characterize his/her decision regarding moving forward with his/her child's surgery during COVID-19. Results: A total of 1915 pediatric patients had elective surgeries canceled, of which 992 (51.8%) were rescheduled within 4 months. No difference in rates of rescheduling was identified based on race or ethnicity. Patients who were scheduled for tonsillectomies and/or adenoidectomies were 1.22 times more likely to reschedule compared to those patients with other planned procedures (CI: 1.02-1.46). A total of 95 caregivers at two hospitals completed surveys: 44 (47.4%) rescheduled their child's surgery. Most caregivers who rescheduled were concerned their child's disease could impact their future (n = 14, 32%). Conclusions: Just over half of patients who had pediatric otolaryngologic surgery canceled during a period of social distancing went on to have surgery within a 4-month timeframe. This reflects the dependence of pediatric otolaryngologic surgery on environmental exposures and may represent a potential target for prevention and management of some pediatric otolaryngology diseases.

Microbial dysbiosis and childhood asthma development: Integrated role of the airway and gut microbiome, environmental exposures, and host metabolic and immune response

Asthma is a chronic and heterogeneous respiratory disease with many risk factors that typically originate during early childhood. A complex interplay between environmental factors and genetic predisposition is considered to shape the lung and gut microbiome in early life. The growing literature has identified that changes in the relative abundance of microbes (microbial dysbiosis) and reduced microbial diversity, as triggers of the airway-gut axis crosstalk dysregulation, are associated with asthma development. There are several mechanisms underlying microbial dysbiosis to childhood asthma development pathways. For example, a bacterial infection in the airway of infants can lead to the activation and/or dysregulation of inflammatory pathways that contribute to bronchoconstriction and bronchial hyperresponsiveness. In addition, gut microbial dysbiosis in infancy can affect immune development and differentiation, resulting in a suboptimal balance between innate and adaptive immunity. This evolving dysregulation of secretion of pro-inflammatory mediators has been associated with persistent airway inflammation and subsequent asthma development. In this review, we examine current evidence around associations between the airway and gut microbial dysbiosis with childhood asthma development. More specifically, this review focuses on discussing the integrated roles of environmental exposures, host metabolic and immune responses, airway and gut microbial dysbiosis in driving childhood asthma development.

Age-dependent virulence of human pathogens

Host age is often evoked as an intrinsic factor aggravating the outcome of host-pathogen interactions. However, the shape of the relationship between age and infection-induced mortality might differ among pathogens, with specific clinical and ecological traits making some pathogens more likely to exert higher mortality in older hosts. Here, we used a large dataset on age-specific case fatality rate (CFR) of 28 human infectious diseases to investigate i) whether age is consistently associated to increased CFR, ii) whether pathogen characteristics might explain higher CFR in older adults. We found that, for most of the infectious diseases considered here, CFR slightly decreased during the first years of life and then steeply increased in older adults. Pathogens inducing diseases with long-lasting symptoms had the steepest increase of age-dependent CFR. Similarly, bacterial diseases and emerging viruses were associated with increasing mortality risk in the oldest age classes. On the contrary, we did not find evidence suggesting that systemic infections have steeper slopes between CFR and age; similarly, the relationship between age and CFR did not differ according to the pathogen transmission mode. Overall, our analysis shows that age is a key trait affecting infection-induced mortality rate in humans, and that the extent of the aggravating effect on older adults depends on some key traits, such as the duration of illness.

Mortality due to infectious diseases varies tremendously among infectious agents, with some pathogens producing no mortality, and others being often associated with a fatal outcome. Such variability depends on characteristics of the pathogen, the host and the environment where hosts and pathogens interact. Age is one of the main host traits that accounts for differences in infection-induced mortality (with mortality being higher at the extremes of the age spectrum). Here, we used a large dataset on 28 human infectious diseases to explore the clinical and ecological traits that might account for differences in age-specific mortality risk. We found that pathogens producing long-lasting disease symptoms exert the highest mortality risk in the older adults. Similarly, emerging pathogens are also associated with higher mortality risk in the oldest age classes. These results confirm that age is a key trait affecting infection-induced mortality rate in humans, and show that the extent of the aggravating effect in older adults depends on some key traits, such as the duration of illness.

Infections and hospital bed-days among aging adults: A five-year retrospective study in a Belgian general hospital

Background

Infectious disease in aging adults (≥61 years) often occurs in combination with other health conditions leading to long hospital stays. Detailed studies on infection in aging adults investigating this problem are sparse.

Aim

To quantify the effect of primary and secondary diagnosed infections on hospitalization bed-days among aging adult patients.

Design

Retrospective patient-file study.

Setting

Ziekenhuis Netwerk Antwerpen (ZNA) Hospital, a 1,858-bed general hospital in Belgium, with 364 beds allocated to geriatric patients.

Data source

Database of hospitalized adult patients aged ≥61 years.

Methods

All adult patients aged ≥61 years hospitalized on two wards, Geriatrics and Pulmonology, from 2010 to 2014 were included. Primary diagnosed infections were defined as infections known at entry to be treated first. Secondary diagnosed infections included infections known at entry but treated in parallel to primary non-infectious causes of entry, infections unknown at entry, and hospital-acquired (nosocomial) infections. Data were analyzed by patient age, gender, year, ward type, bed-days of hospitalization, infection rates, and seasonality.

Results

There were 3,306 primary diagnosed infections (18%) and 14,758 secondary infections (82%) identified in the two wards combined (54.7% of all hospital stays at those 2 wards). Secondary diagnosed infections accounted for a significantly higher proportion of hospitalizations in both wards (+40% for Geriatric ward; +20% for Pulmonology ward; p < 0.001) and were associated with a significantly longer average hospital stay (+4 days for Geriatric ward; +5 days for Pulmonology ward; p < 0.001). Nosocomial infections (12% for Geriatric ward; 7% for Pulmonology ward) were associated with particularly high bed-days of hospitalization, at approximately +15 days and +12 days on Geriatric and Pulmonology wards, respectively. Both wards showed marked seasonality for respiratory infections with winter peaks.

Conclusion

Real-world data showed that secondary diagnosed infections in aging adults imposed a high burden on hospital care along with longer hospital stays. This hampered bed availability during peak seasons.

IgA-Type Enterovirus Antibodies Are Increased among Adults and Children with Recently Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes

Enteroviruses (EV) are among the leading environmental triggers of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D). Our aim was to determine the prevalence of antibodies against EV and their association with T1D in different age groups (n = 62), including young adults, and to compare these data with results from HLA-matched control participants (n = 62). IgA, IgG, and IgM antibodies against EV were detected. IgA EV antibodies were present in 46.8% of participants with T1D (median level 10.9 EIU) and in 11.3% of controls (median level 3.4 EIU). IgA EV positivity and higher level of IgA EV antibodies were both significant risk factors for T1D (odds ratio (OR) 8.33; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.52–27.6; p = 0.0005 and OR 1.04; 95% CI 1.01–1.06; p = 0.0105, respectively). Importantly, the prevalence of IgA EV antibodies in the subgroups of both children and young adults was also significantly different between participants with T1D and their matched controls (p = 0.0089 and p = 0.0055, respectively). Such differences were not seen for IgG and IgM EV antibodies. However, IgG EV antibodies were associated with 65 kDa glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies, but not with zinc transporter 8 and protein tyrosine phosphatase IA2 antibodies. The genotype frequency of PTPN22 (rs2476601) and IFIH1 (rs1990760) was not associated with EV positivity. This study showed that EV infections may be an important disease-promoting factor of T1D not only in childhood-onset but also in adult-onset T1D. However, to further confirm this association, direct virological studies are needed in the latter T1D group.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for COVID-19 infection and disease severity: A nationwide observational study in Estonia

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 pandemic has led to overloading of health systems all over the world. For reliable risk stratification, knowledge on factors predisposing to SARS-CoV-2 infection and to severe COVID-19 disease course is needed for decision-making at the individual, provider, and government levels. Data to identify these factors should be easily obtainable.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Retrospective cohort study of nationwide e-health databases in Estonia. We used longitudinal health records from 66,295 people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA from 26 February 2020 to 28 February 2021 and 254,958 randomly selected controls from the reference population with no known history of SARS-CoV-2 infection or clinical COVID-19 diagnosis (case to control ratio 1:4) to predict risk factors of infection and severe course of COVID-19. We analysed sociodemographic and health characteristics of study participants. The SARS-CoV-2 infection risk was slightly higher among women, and was higher among those with comorbid conditions or obesity. Dementia (RRR 3.77, 95%CI 3.30⎼4.31), renal disease (RRR 1.88, 95%CI 1.56⎼2.26), and cerebrovascular disease (RRR 1.81, 95%CI 1.64⎼2.00) increased the risk of infection. Of all SARS-CoV-2 infected people, 92% had a non-severe disease course, 4.8% severe disease (requiring hospitalisation), 1.7% critical disease (needing intensive care), and 1.5% died. Male sex, increasing age and comorbid burden contributed significantly to more severe COVID-19, and the strength of association for male sex increased with the increasing severity of COVID-19 outcome. The strongest contributors to critical illness (expressed as RRR with 95% CI) were renal disease (7.71, 4.71⎼12.62), the history of previous myocardial infarction (3.54, 2.49⎼5.02) and obesity (3.56, 2.82⎼4.49). The strongest contributors to a lethal outcome were renal disease (6.48, 3.74⎼11.23), cancer (3.81, 3.06⎼4.75), liver disease (3.51, 1.36⎼9.02) and cerebrovascular disease (3.00, 2.31⎼3.89).

CONCLUSIONS

We found divergent effect of age and gender on infection risk and severity of COVID-19. Age and gender did not contribute substantially to infection risk, but did so for the risk of severe disease Co-morbid health conditions, especially those affecting renin-angiotensin system, had an impact on both the risk of infection and severe disease course. Age and male sex had the most significant impact on the risk of severe COVID-19. Taking into account the role of ACE2 receptors in the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as its modulating action on the renin-angiotensin system in cardiovascular and renal diseases, further research is needed to investigate the influence of hormonal status on ACE2 expression in different tissues, which may be the basis for the development of COVID-19 therapies.

Linking digital surveillance and in-depth virology to study clinical patterns of viral respiratory infections in vulnerable patient populations

To improve the identification and management of viral respiratory infections, we established a clinical and virologic surveillance program for pediatric patients fulfilling pre-defined case criteria of influenza-like illness and viral respiratory infections. The program resulted in a cohort comprising 6,073 patients (56% male, median age 1.6 years, range 0–18.8 years), where every patient was assessed with a validated disease severity score at the point-of-care using the ViVI ScoreApp. We used machine learning and agnostic feature selection to identify characteristic clinical patterns. We tested all patients for human adenoviruses, 571 (9%) were positive. Adenovirus infections were particularly common and mild in children ≥1 month of age but rare and potentially severe in neonates: with lower airway involvement, disseminated disease, and a 50% mortality rate (n = 2/4). In one fatal case, we discovered a novel virus: HAdV-80. Standardized surveillance leveraging digital technology helps to identify characteristic clinical patterns, risk factors, and emerging pathogens.

•

We used mobile health technology to enable clinical pattern recognition

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The ViVI ScoreApp provided precision data for cross-cohort meta-analysis

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Neonates with adenovirus infection are at risk of severe or fatal disease outcomes

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In one neonate with disseminated disease, we found a new adenovirus: HAdV-D80

Which 'imperfect vaccines' encourage the evolution of higher virulence?

Background and objectives

Theory suggests that some types of vaccines against infectious pathogens may lead to the evolution of variants that cause increased harm, particularly when they infect unvaccinated individuals. This theory was supported by the observation that the use of an imperfect vaccine to control Marek's disease virus in chickens resulted in the virus evolving to be more lethal to unvaccinated birds. This raises the concern that the use of some other vaccines may lead to similar pernicious outcomes. We examine that theory with a focus on considering the regimes in which such outcomes are expected.

Methodology

We evaluate the plausibility of assumptions in the original theory. The previous theory rested heavily on a particular form of transmission-mortality-recovery trade-off and invoked other assumptions about the pathways of evolution. We review alternatives to mortality in limiting transmission and consider evolutionary pathways that were omitted in the original theory.

Results

The regime where the pernicious evolutionary outcome occurs is narrowed by our analysis but remains possible in various scenarios. We propose a more nuanced consideration of alternative models for the within-host dynamics of infections and for factors that limit virulence. Our analysis suggests imperfect vaccines against many pathogens will not lead to the evolution of pathogens with increased virulence in unvaccinated individuals.

Conclusions and implications

Evolution of greater pathogen mortality driven by vaccination remains difficult to predict, but the scope for such outcomes appears limited. Incorporation of mechanistic details into the framework, especially regarding immunity, may be requisite for prediction accuracy.

Lay Summary

A virus of chickens appears to have evolved high mortality in response to a vaccine that merely prevented disease symptoms. Theory has predicted this type of evolution in response to a variety of vaccines and other interventions such as drug treatment. Under what circumstances is this pernicious result likely to occur? Analysis of the theory in light of recent changes in our understanding of viral biology raises doubts that medicine-driven, pernicious evolution is likely to be common. But we are far from a mechanistic understanding of the interaction between pathogen and host that can predict when vaccines and other medical interventions will lead to the unwanted evolution of more virulent pathogens. So, while the regime where a pernicious result obtains may be limited, caution remains warranted in designing many types of interventions.

Variation in the COVID-19 infection-fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

The infection-fatality ratio (IFR) is a metric that quantifies the likelihood of an individual dying once infected with a pathogen. Understanding the determinants of IFR variation for COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has direct implications for mitigation efforts with respect to clinical practice, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the prioritisation of risk groups for targeted vaccine delivery. The IFR is also a crucial parameter in COVID-19 dynamic transmission models, providing a way to convert a population's mortality rate into an estimate of infections.

METHODS

We estimated age-specific and all-age IFR by matching seroprevalence surveys to total COVID-19 mortality rates in a population. The term total COVID-19 mortality refers to an estimate of the total number of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19. After applying exclusion criteria to 5131 seroprevalence surveys, the IFR analyses were informed by 2073 all-age surveys and 718 age-specific surveys (3012 age-specific observations). When seroprevalence was reported by age group, we split total COVID-19 mortality into corresponding age groups using a Bayesian hierarchical model to characterise the non-linear age pattern of reported deaths for a given location. To remove the impact of vaccines on the estimated IFR age pattern, we excluded age-specific observations of seroprevalence and deaths that occurred after vaccines were introduced in a location. We estimated age-specific IFR with a non-linear meta-regression and used the resulting age pattern to standardise all-age IFR observations to the global age distribution. All IFR observations were adjusted for baseline and waning antibody-test sensitivity. We then modelled age-standardised IFR as a function of time, geography, and an ensemble of 100 of the top-performing covariate sets. The covariates included seven clinical predictors (eg, age-standardised obesity prevalence) and two measures of health system performance. Final estimates for 190 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in 11 countries and territories, were obtained by predicting age-standardised IFR conditional on covariates and reversing the age standardisation.

FINDINGS

We report IFR estimates for April 15, 2020, to January 1, 2021, the period before the introduction of vaccines and widespread evolution of variants. We found substantial heterogeneity in the IFR by age, location, and time. Age-specific IFR estimates form a J shape, with the lowest IFR occurring at age 7 years (0·0023%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·0015-0·0039) and increasing exponentially through ages 30 years (0·0573%, 0·0418-0·0870), 60 years (1·0035%, 0·7002-1·5727), and 90 years (20·3292%, 14·6888-28·9754). The countries with the highest IFR on July 15, 2020, were Portugal (2·085%, 0·946-4·395), Monaco (1·778%, 1·265-2·915), Japan (1·750%, 1·302-2·690), Spain (1·710%, 0·991-2·718), and Greece (1·637%, 1·155-2·678). All-age IFR varied by a factor of more than 30 among 190 countries and territories. After age standardisation, the countries with the highest IFR on July 15, 2020, were Peru (0·911%, 0·636-1·538), Portugal (0·850%, 0·386-1·793), Oman (0·762%, 0·381-1·399), Spain (0·751%, 0·435-1·193), and Mexico (0·717%, 0·426-1·404). Subnational locations with high IFRs also included hotspots in the UK and southern and eastern states of the USA. Sub-Saharan African countries and Asian countries generally had the lowest all-age and age-standardised IFRs. Population age structure accounted for 74% of logit-scale variation in IFRs estimated for 39 in-sample countries on July 15, 2020. A post-hoc analysis showed that high rates of transmission in the care home population might account for higher IFRs in some locations. Among all countries and territories, we found that the median IFR decreased from 0·466% (interquartile range 0·223-0·840) to 0·314% (0·143-0·551) between April 15, 2020, and Jan 1, 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Estimating the IFR for global populations helps to identify relative vulnerabilities to COVID-19. Information about how IFR varies by age, time, and location informs clinical practice and non-pharmaceutical interventions like physical distancing measures, and underpins vaccine risk stratification. IFR and mortality risk form a J shape with respect to age, which previous research, such as that by Glynn and Moss in 2020, has identified to be a common pattern among infectious diseases. Understanding the experience of a population with COVID-19 mortality requires consideration for local factors; IFRs varied by a factor of more than 30 among 190 countries and territories in this analysis. In particular, the presence of elevated age-standardised IFRs in countries with well resourced health-care systems indicates that factors beyond health-care capacity are important. Potential extenuating circumstances include outbreaks among care home residents, variable burdens of severe cases, and the population prevalence of comorbid conditions that increase the severity of COVID-19 disease. During the pre-vaccine period, the estimated 33% decrease in median IFR over 8 months suggests that treatment for COVID-19 has improved over time. Estimating IFR for the pre-vaccine era provides an important baseline for describing the progression of COVID-19 mortality patterns.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, and J and E Nordstrom.

Prevalence of Common Infectious Diseases After COVID-19 Vaccination and Easing of Pandemic Restrictions in Israel

IMPORTANCE

Social restrictions intended to limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may have also been associated with decreased rates of other communicable diseases. Evidence suggests that infection incidence rates (IRs) are rebounding after easing of social restrictions (eg, mask mandates). The reemergence of infectious disease complicates efforts to manage the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

To examine IRs of frequently occurring infectious diseases after a successful SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in Israel and cessation of social restrictions.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study was conducted using records for respiratory and gastrointestinal infectious diseases at 209 community clinics in southern Israel from 2017 to 2021. Included patients attended community clinics from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Incidence of infectious diseases was estimated in the first 3 months after the easing of social restrictions (ie, April-June 2021) across age groups.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Age-specific and disease-specific weekly IRs per 100 000 population for April to June were compared between 2017 and 2021 and expected current IR was estimated using segmented linear regression. Growth rates of respiratory infections across years and weekly diagnoses detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction testing were also compared.

RESULTS

Among 386 711 patients with a total of 1 221 568 visits to community clinics, the mean (SD) age was 27.29 (23.93) years, and there were 202 494 (52.3%) male patients and 184 217 (47.7%) female patients. Children aged 0 to 3 years had significantly increased rates of respiratory and gastrointestinal infection diagnoses (IR ratio, 2.64; 95% CI, 2:30-2.91; P < .001). In addition, incidence of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections were significantly increased across age groups (IR ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.56-1.94; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These morbidity trends observed in Israel suggest that similar trends could occur in coming months in other countries after easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, particularly with the ongoing challenges of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Characteristics and management of adolescents attending the ED with fever: a prospective multicentre study

OBJECTIVE

Most studies on febrile children have focused on infants and young children with serious bacterial infection (SBI). Although population studies have described an increased risk of sepsis in adolescents, little is known about febrile adolescents attending the emergency department (ED). We aimed to describe patient characteristics and management of febrile adolescents attending the ED.

DESIGN AND SETTING

The MOFICHE/PERFORM study (Management and Outcome of Febrile Children in Europe/Personalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management across the European Union), a prospective multicentre study, took place at 12 European EDs. Descriptive and multivariable regression analyses were performed, comparing febrile adolescents (12-18 years) with younger children in terms of patient characteristics, markers of disease severity (vital signs, clinical alarming signs), management (diagnostic tests, therapy, admission) and diagnosis (focus, viral/bacterial infection).

RESULTS

37 420 encounters were included, of which 2577 (6.9%) were adolescents. Adolescents were more often triaged as highly urgent (38.9% vs 34.5%) and described as ill appearing (23.1% vs 15.6%) than younger children. Increased work of breathing and a non-blanching rash were present less often in adolescents, while neurological signs were present more often (1% vs 0%). C reactive protein tests were performed more frequently in adolescents and were more often abnormal (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.7, 95% CI 1.5 to 1.9). Adolescents were more often diagnosed with SBI (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.0) and sepsis/meningitis (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 5.0) and were more frequently admitted (aOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.4) and treated with intravenous antibiotics (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5 to 2.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Although younger children presented to the ED more frequently, adolescents were more often diagnosed with SBI and sepsis/meningitis. Our data emphasise the importance of awareness of severe infections in adolescents.

Impaired JAK-STAT pathway signaling in leukocytes of the frail elderly

Background

Elderly often show reduced immune functioning and can develop chronic low-grade inflammation. Why some elderly are more prone to become frail is unknown. We investigated whether frailty is associated with altered cytokine signaling through the JAK-STAT pathway in leukocytes of 34 individuals aged 65–74 years. In addition, we investigated how this relation is affected by chronic low-grade inflammation during the previous 20 years. Cytokine signaling was quantified by measuring intracellular STAT1, STAT3, and STAT5 phosphorylation in monocytes, B cells, CD4⁺ T cells and CD8⁺ T cells upon stimulation with IL-2, IL-6, IL-10, IFNα and IFNγ, using phospho-flow cytometry. Presence of chronic low-grade inflammation was investigated by evaluating 18 different plasma inflammatory markers that had been measured repeatedly in the same individuals over the previous 20 years. Frailty was assessed as a score on a frailty index.

Results

We found that lower cytokine-induced pSTAT responsiveness in the various cell subsets was seen with higher frailty scores in both men and women, indicative of dysfunctional pSTAT responses in frailer individuals. Associations differed between men and women, with frailer women showing lower pSTAT1 responses in monocytes and frailer men showing lower pSTAT5 responses in CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells. Notably, lower IL-10-induced pSTAT3 responses in men were related to both higher frailty scores and higher CRP levels over the past 20 years. This might indicate poor resolution of low-grade inflammation due to defective regulatory pSTAT signaling in older men.

Conclusions

Our results emphasize the importance of preserved JAK-STAT pathway signaling in healthy aging and reveal cellular pSTAT levels as a candidate biomarker of frailty.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12979-021-00261-w.

Infants hospitalized for acute COVID-19: disease severity in a multicenter cohort study

Age is the most important determinant of COVID-19 severity. Infectious disease severity by age is typically J-shaped, with infants and the elderly carrying a high burden of disease. We report on the comparative disease severity between infants and older children in a multicenter retrospective cohort study of children 0 to 17 years old admitted for acute COVID-19 from February 2020 through May 2021 in 17 pediatric hospitals. We compare clinical and laboratory characteristics and estimate the association between age group and disease severity using ordinal logistic regression. We found that infants comprised one-third of cases, but were admitted for a shorter period (median 3 days IQR 2-5 versus 4 days IQR 2-7), had a lower likelihood to have an increased C-reactive protein, and had half the odds of older children of having severe or critical disease (OR 0.50 (95% confidence interval 0.32-0.78)).    Conclusion: When compared to older children, there appeared to be a lower threshold to admit infants but their length of stay was shorter and they had lower odds than older children of progressing to severe or critical disease. What is Known: • A small proportion of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 require hospitalization for acute COVID-19 with a subgroup needing specialized intensive care to treat more severe disease. • For most infectious diseases including viral respiratory tract infections, disease severity by age is J-shaped, with infants having more severe disease compared to older children. What is New: • One-third of admitted children for acute COVID-19 during the first 14 months of the pandemic were infants. • Infants had half the odds of older children of having severe or critical disease.

Assessment of hepatitis E seropositivity among HIV-infected patients in Bulgaria

It is debatable whether HIV-infected patients are at greater risk for hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection compared with healthy subjects. The reported anti-HEV seroprevalence among different groups in Bulgaria varied from 9.04% to 25.9%, but the information regarding the HIV population is still missing. The aim of the present study was to evaluate hepatitis E seroprevalence among HIV-infected patients in Bulgaria and to analyze demographic and immunological factors associated with HEV infection. Serum samples of 312 HIV-infected patients were analyzed retrospectively. Age, sex, residence and laboratory markers for HEV, HBV, HCV and HIV infection, and lymphocytes subpopulations were collected for all patients. None of the tested samples were positive for HEV RNA. HEV seroprevalence among HIV-infected patients was 10.9%. Males were more affected with the highest prevalence of positivity in the age group > 30 to ≤ 40 years. The documented HIV transmission routes in HIV/HEV co-infected group were heterosexual, homosexual, intravenous drug use (IDU), and vertical with predominace of the heterosexual route (z = 0.2; p = 0.804). There was a statistically significant trend of HIV mixed infection with routes of HIV transmission other than homosexual - heterosexual in HIV/HEV group and injection drug use in HIV/HBV/HCV co-infected group. The route of HIV transmission, in contexts of patients’ behavior, was associated with HEV prevalence among HIV-infected patients.

A high-dimensional cytometry atlas of peripheral blood over the human life span

Age can profoundly affect susceptibility to a broad range of human diseases. Children are more susceptible to some infectious diseases such as diphtheria and pertussis, while in others, such as coronavirus disease 2019 and hepatitis A, they are more protected compared with adults. One explanation is that the composition of the immune system is a major contributing factor to disease susceptibility and severity. While most studies of the human immune system have focused on adults, how the immune system changes after birth remains poorly understood. Here, using high-dimensional spectral flow cytometry and computational methods for data integration, we analyzed more than 50 populations of immune cells in the peripheral blood, generating an immune cell atlas that defines the healthy human immune system from birth up to 75 years of age. We focused our efforts on children under 18 years old, revealing major changes in immune cell populations after birth and in children of schooling age. Specifically, CD4⁺ T effector memory cells, Vδ2⁺ gamma delta (γδ)T cells, memory B cells, plasmablasts, CD11c⁺ B cells and CD16⁺ CD56^bright natural killer (NK) cells peaked in children aged 5-9 years old, whereas frequencies of T helper 1, T helper 17, dendritic cells and CD16⁺ CD57⁺ CD56^dim NK cells were highest in older children (10-18 years old). The frequency of mucosal-associated invariant T cells was low in the first several years of life and highest in adults between 19 and 30 years old. Late adulthood was associated with fewer mucosal-associated invariant T cells and Vδ2⁺ γδ T cells but with increased frequencies of memory subsets of B cells, CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells and CD57⁺ NK cells. This human immune cell atlas provides a critical resource to understand changes to the immune system during life and provides a reference for investigating the immune system in the context of human disease. This work may also help guide future therapies that target specific populations of immune cells to protect at-risk populations.

Nitric Oxide: The Missing Factor in COVID-19 Severity?

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious respiratory and vascular disease that continues to spread among people around the world, mutating into new strains with increased transmission rates, such as the delta variant. The scientific community is struggling to discover the link between negative COVID-19 outcomes in patients with preexisting conditions, as well as identify the cause of the negative clinical patient outcomes (patients who need medical attention, including hospitalization) in what seems like a widespread range of COVID-19 symptoms that manifest atypically to any preexisting respiratory tract infectious diseases known so far. Having successfully developed a nutritional formulation intervention based on nitrate, a nitric oxide precursor, the authors hypothesis is that both the comorbidities associated with negative clinical patient outcomes and symptoms associated with COVID-19 sickness are linked to the depletion of a simple molecule: nitric oxide.

Inflammation, Ageing and Diseases of the Lung: Potential therapeutic strategies from shared biological pathways

Lung diseases disproportionately affect elderly individuals. The lungs form a unique environment: a highly elastic organ with gaseous exchange requiring the closest proximity of inhaled air containing harmful agents and the circulating blood volume. The lungs are highly susceptible to senescence, with age and "inflammageing" creating a pro-inflammatory environment with a reduced capacity to deal with challenges. Whilst lung diseases may have disparate causes, the burden of ageing and inflammation provides a common process which can exacerbate seemingly unrelated pathologies. However, these shared pathways may also provide a common route to treatment, with increased interest in drugs which target ageing processes across respiratory diseases. In this review, we will examine the evidence for the increased burden of lung disease in older adults, the structural and functional changes seen with advancing age and assess what our expanding knowledge of inflammation and ageing pathways could mean for the treatment of lung disease.

Antibiotic prescribing patterns for childhood infections in ambulatory settings in Jordan

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics' rational prescribing is a major goal of the World Health Organization's (WHO) global action plan to tackle antimicrobial resistance. Evaluation of antibiotic prescribing patterns is necessary to guide simple, globally applicable stewardship interventions. The impact of antimicrobial resistance is devastating, especially in low-income countries. We aimed to introduce ambulatory data on patterns of paediatric antibiotic prescribing in Jordan, which could be used to guide local stewardship interventions.

METHODS

A cross-sectional retrospective study was conducted by selecting a random sample of paediatric patients, who attended ambulatory settings in 2018. Records of outpatients (age ≤18 years) receiving at least one antibiotic were included. The WHO's model of drug utilisation was applied, and all prescribing indicators were included. Multiple linear regression was performed to examine factors influencing the ratio of prescribed antibiotics to overall medications per encounter.

RESULTS

A total of 20 494 prescriptions, containing 45 241 prescribed drugs, were obtained. The average number of prescribed drugs per prescription was (2.21 ± 0.98). Approximately 77.5% of overall ambulatory prescriptions accounted for antimicrobials. Only 0.6% of total prescriptions were for injectables. All antimicrobials (100%) were prescribed by generic names and from the essential drug list. Antibiotics were most commonly prescribed for respiratory tract infections. Age, gender, season and facility type were significant predictors of prescribed antibiotics to overall medications ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study of antibiotic prescribing patterns among outpatient paediatrics that covers wide regions in Jordan. Results indicate high rates of antibiotics use among outpatient paediatrics. Such findings necessitate more focussed efforts and regulations that support rational utilisation of drugs.

Transition to endemicity: Understanding COVID-19

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its associated disease, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has caused a devastating pandemic worldwide. Here, we explain basic concepts underlying the transition from an epidemic to an endemic state, where a pathogen is stably maintained in a population. We discuss how the number of infections and the severity of disease change in the transition from the epidemic to the endemic phase and consider the implications of this transition in the context of COVID-19.