Diabetes and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City

Overall glycaemic index and dietary glycaemic load and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in women from the Mexican Teachers' Cohort

Previous studies have found direct associations between glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) with chronic diseases. However, this evidence has not been consistent in relation to mortality, and most data regarding this association come from high-income and low-carbohydrate-intake populations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the overall GI and dietary GL and all-cause mortality, CVD and breast cancer mortality in Mexico. Participants from the Mexican Teachers' Cohort (MTC) study in 2006-2008 were followed for a median of 10 years. Overall GI and dietary GL were calculated from a validated FFQ. Deaths were identified by the cross-linkage of MTC participants with two national mortality registries. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the impact of GI and GL on mortality. We identified 1198 deaths. Comparing the lowest and highest quintile, dietary GI and GL appeared to be marginally associated with all-cause mortality; GI, 1·12 (95 % CI: 0·93, 1·35); GL, 1·12 (95 % CI: 0·87, 1·44). Higher GI and GL were associated with increased risk of CVD mortality, GI, 1·30 (95 % CI: 0·82, 2·08); GL, 1·64 (95 % CI: 0·87, 3·07) and with greater risk of breast cancer mortality; GI, 2·13 (95 % CI: 1·12, 4·06); GL, 2·43 (95 % CI: 0·90, 6·59). It is necessary to continue the improvement of carbohydrate quality indicators to better guide consumer choices and to lead the Mexican population to limit excessive intake of low-quality carbohydrate foods.

Contribution of Stroke to Long-Term All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Stroke mortality is more common in low-income and middle-income nations such as Mexico. Prognosis data typically rely on short-term hospital follow-ups, revealing high mortality rates due to systemic complications and early recurrence. We aim to explore stroke's long-term impact by examining all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the Mexico City Prospective Study (1998-2004) with known mortality outcomes until December 2022. Baseline variables were compared between participants who had stroke and nonstroke participants. Cox proportional hazard regression assessed each variable's contribution to overall mortality. Subsequent analysis within the stroke subgroup aimed to identify unique risk factors of mortality, using Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, and time since stroke.

RESULTS

Among 145,537 eligible participants, 1,492 (1.0%) had a history of stroke. Participants who had stroke were older (57.58 vs 50.16, p < 0.001); had lower mean weekly income ($108.24 vs $176.14, p < 0.001); had higher alcohol intake and smoking frequency; and had more frequent comorbidities such as hypertension (48.9 vs 19.3%, p < 0.001), diabetes (23.4 vs 12.9%, p < 0.001), and ischemic heart disease (5.4 vs 1.0%, p < 0.001). They had a significantly increased risk of death from any cause (hazard ratio [HR] 2.59, 95% CI 2.37-2.83, p < 0.001). Deceased participants with stroke were more likely to be male, with a higher prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and abnormal waist-hip index. Stroke increased the risk of death from cardiac (HR 3.56, 95% CI 3.02-4.19, p < 0.001), renal (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.58-2.66, p < 0.001), and pulmonary (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.79-2.92, p < 0.001) causes.

DISCUSSION

This study confirms stroke's association with higher mortality rates, especially from cardiac, renal, and pulmonary causes in Mexico. It underscores the elevated prevalence of cardiovascular comorbidities and adverse socioeconomic profiles among participants who had stroke and those who died with a history of stroke.

Smoking, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality in individuals with diabetes in Mexico: an analysis of the Mexico city prospective study

OBJECTIVE

Evidence from low- and middle-income countries regarding the effect of smoking in people with diabetes is lacking. Here, we report the association of smoking with mortality in a large cohort of Mexican adults with diabetes.

METHODS

Participants with diabetes mellitus (self-reported diagnosis, use of antidiabetic medications or HbA1c ≥ 6.5%) aged 35-74 years when recruited into the Mexico City Prospective Study were included. Cox regression confounder-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) associated with baseline smoking status were estimated.

RESULTS

Among 15,975 women and 8225 men aged 35-74 years with diabetes but no other comorbidities at recruitment, 2498 (16%) women and 2875 (35%) men reported former smoking and 2753 (17%) women, and 3796 (46%) men reported current smoking. During a median of 17 years of follow-up there were 5087 deaths at ages 35-74 years. Compared with never smoking, all-cause mortality RR was 1.08 (95%CI 1.01-1.17) for former smoking, 1.11 (95%CI 1.03-1.20) for current smoking, 1.09 (95%CI 0.99-1.20) for non-daily smoking, 1.06 (95%CI 0.96-1.16) for smoking < 10 cigarettes/day (median during follow-up 4 cigarettes/day), and 1.28 (95% CI 1.14-1.43) for smoking ≥ 10 cigarettes/day (median during follow-up 15 cigarettes/day). Mortality risk among daily smokers was greatest for COPD, lung cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and acute diabetic complications.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of Mexican adults with diabetes, low-intensity daily smoking was associated with increased mortality, despite observing smoking patterns which are different from other populations, and over 5% of total deaths were associated with smoking.

Using the illness-death model to estimate age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of diabetes in Mexico from 2003 to 2015

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the age-specific and age-standardized incidence rate of diabetes for men and women in Mexico between 2003 and 2015, and to assess the relative change in incidence of diabetes between 2003 and 2015.

METHODS

We use a partial differential equation describing the illness-death model to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of diabetes for the years 2003, 2009 and 2015 based on prevalence data from National Health Surveys conducted in Mexico, the mortality rate of the Mexican general population and plausible input values for age-specific mortality rate ratios associated with diabetes.

RESULTS

The age-standardized IR of diabetes per 1000 person years (pryr) was similar among men (IRm) and women (IRw) in the year 2003 (IRm 6.1 vs. IRw 6.5 1000/pryr), 2009 (IRm: 7.0 vs. IRw: 8.4 1000/pryr), and in 2015 (IRm 8.0 vs. IRw 10.6 1000/pryr). The highest incident rates were observed among men and women in the 60-69 age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the incidence rate of diabetes in Mexico between the years 2003 and 2015 remained stable. However, rates were markedly higher among women in the age group 40-49 and 50-59 in the year 2015 compared with rates in 2003.

Polymicrobial bloodstream infection involving Oligella urethralis and Trueperella bernardiae: a case report and literature review

Oligella urethralis and Trueperella bernardiae are rare causes of bacteremia. A 96-year-old female nursing home resident with diabetes presented with polymicrobial bloodstream infection comprising these organisms and obstructive urinary tract infection. O. urethralis identified from blood cultures was resistant to fluoroquinolones and non-fourth-generation cephalosporins. Cases must be accumulated to define the clinical features of these organisms for infection control.

Adiposity, fat-free mass and incident heart failure in 500 000 individuals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The independent role of body fat distribution and fat-free mass in heart failure (HF) risk is unclear. We investigated the role of different body composition compartments in risk of HF.

METHODS

Present analyses include 428 087 participants (mean age 55.9 years, 44% male) from the UK Biobank. Associations of long-term average levels of body composition measures with incident HF were determined using adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 13.8 years, there were 10 455 first-ever incident HF events. Overall, HF risk was more strongly associated with central adiposity (waist circumference (WC) adjusted for body mass index (BMI); HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.45) than general adiposity (BMI adjusted for WC; HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.27). Although dual X-ray absorptiometry-derived body fat remained positively related to HF after adjustment for fat-free mass (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.59), the association of fat-free mass with HF was substantially attenuated by fat mass (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.26) while visceral fat (VAT) remained associated with HF independent of subcutaneous fat (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.33). In analyses of HF subtypes, HF with preserved ejection fraction was independently associated with all fat measures (eg, VAT: HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.35; body fat: HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.57) while HF with reduced ejection fraction was not independently associated with fat measures (eg, VAT: HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.68; body fat: HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.80 to 2.07).

CONCLUSIONS

This large-scale study shows that excess adiposity and fat mass are associated with higher HF risk while the association of fat-free mass with HF could be explained largely by its correlation with fat mass. The study also describes the independent relevance of body fat distribution to HF subtypes, suggesting different mechanisms may be driving their aetiopathogenesis.

Associations of diabesity with all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality: Findings from the Mexico City Prospective Study

AIM

To investigate the joint associations of diabetes and obesity with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the Mexico City Prospective Study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 154 128 participants (67.2% women) were included in this prospective analysis. Diabetes was self-reported, while body mass index was used to calculate obesity. Using diabetes and obesity classifications, six groups were created: (a) normal (no diabetes and normal weight); (b) normal weight and diabetes; (c) overweight but not diabetes (overweight); (d) overweight and diabetes (prediabesity); (e) obesity but not diabetes (obesity); and (f) obesity and diabetes (diabesity). Associations between these categories and outcomes were investigated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for confounder factors.

RESULTS

During 18.3 years of follow-up, 27 197 (17.6%) participants died (28.5% because of CV causes). In the maximally adjusted model, participants those with the highest risk {hazard ratio (HR): 2.37 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.24-2.51]}, followed by those with diabesity [HR: 2.04 (95% CI: 1.94-2.15)]. Similar trends of associations were observed for CVD mortality. The highest CV mortality risk was observed in individuals with diabesity [HR: 1.80 (95% CI: 1.63-1.99)], followed by normal weight and diabetic individuals [HR: 1.78 (95% CI: 1.60-1.98)].

CONCLUSION

This large prospective study identified that diabetes was the main driver of all-cause and CVD mortality in all the categories studied, with diabesity being the riskiest. Given the high prevalence of both conditions in Mexico, our results reinforce the importance of initiating prevention strategies from an early age.

Lifestyle risk factors and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the Mexico City prospective study: Assessing the influence of reverse causation

BACKGROUND

We examined the association between individual lifestyle risk factors with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study including 155,002 participants from the Mexico City Prospective Study. Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between individual lifestyle risk factors and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Participants with prevalent diseases at baseline and participants who died during the first 2, 5, 10, and 15 years of follow-up were excluded to account for reverse causation.

RESULTS

27,469 people died during 18.3 years of follow-up years. Overweight and moderate alcohol consumption were inversely associated with all-cause mortality, while low physical activity and smoking were positively associated when all participants were included, regardless of prevalent disease or duration of follow-up. The direction of the association of overweight with all-cause mortality changed from inverse to positive after excluding the first 10 years of follow-up. Compared with normal weight, the hazard ratio (95 % confidence interval) was 1.17 (1.13,1.22) for obesity after excluding those who died in the first 5 years of follow-up and 1.71 (1.59,1.84) after excluding the first 15 years of follow-up. The magnitude of the association of alcohol intake, low physical activity, and smoking with mortality attenuated, whereas for fruits and vegetables increased, after excluding longer periods of follow-up.

LIMITATIONS

The data were collected exclusively in Mexico City; lifestyle risk factors were self-reported and thus prone to misclassification bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Reverse causation may influence both the magnitude and the direction of the associations between lifestyle risk factors and mortality.

Implementation and Outcomes of Multidisciplinary Diabetes Management Program Among Type 2 Diabetic Patients: A Comparative Study

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend shifting physician-led care (PLC) for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to more effective multidisciplinary health care (MHC). However, few researchers have studied its real-life implementation in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, we aimed to assess the implementation and compare the outcomes of an MDC diabetes management program (DMP) among T2DM patients to a PLC at a general hospital after one year of follow-up in a real-world practice setting.

METHODS

We conducted this comparative patient files review study by analyzing medical records of all T2DM patients at two private care centers. Both were compared for their effectiveness in achieving two outcomes: the glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) <7% and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-c) <70 mg/dl at the end of the first year. Additionally, we assessed the implementation of the DMP.

RESULTS

Eight hundred thirty-four medical records were reviewed, 537 from DMP, and 279 from the PLC center. The personal health coordination was almost complete (97.8%) in the DMP, but the implementation was incomplete regarding nutrition (65.7%), dental exam (64.8%), and foot care (58.3%). Both care groups were matched for age (p = 0.056), gender (p = 0.085), duration of diabetes (p = 0.217), and basal glycemic control (p = 0.171). The DMP showed a significant net decrease in HbA1c (-0.5 [IQR 1.47%] vs -0.2 [IQR 3.05%], p = 0.0001) and LDL-c (-10 [IQR 50] vs -5 [IQR 60.5] mg/dl, p = 0.004) compared to PLC. A higher percentage of patients achieved glycemic control in the DMP than in the PLC (49.4% vs 38.7%, p = 0.038). However, both programs demonstrated similar outcomes in lipid control (28.7% vs. 30%, p = 0.695).

CONCLUSION

Despite some gaps in implementation, one year of DMP showed better glycemic control among T2DM patients compared to PLC. Both programs were comparable in terms of lipid control. Further studies identifying the gaps in care implementation could improve sustainability, future replication, and generalizability of similar programs to other healthcare systems in Saudi Arabia.

Prediabetes as a risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective analysis of 115,919 adults without diabetes in Mexico City

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes has been associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. However, no large-scale studies have been conducted in Mexico or Latin America examining these associations.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 115,919 adults without diabetes (diagnosed or undiagnosed) aged 35-84 years who participated in the Mexico City Prospective Study between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed until January 1 st , 2021 for cause-specific mortality. We defined prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA, HbA 1c 5.7% to 6.4%) and the International Expert Committee (IEC, HbA 1c 6.0-6.4%) definitions. Cox regression adjusted for confounders was used to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate ratios (RR) at ages 35-74 years associated with prediabetes.

FINDINGS

During 2,085,392 person-years of follow-up (median in survivors 19 years), there were 6,810 deaths at ages 35-74, including 1,742 from cardiovascular disease, 892 from renal disease and 108 from acute diabetic crises. Of 110,405 participants aged 35-74 years at recruitment, 28,852 (26%) had ADA-defined prediabetes and 7,203 (7%) had IEC-defined prediabetes. Compared with those without prediabetes, individuals with prediabetes had higher risk of all-cause mortality at ages 35-74 years (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19 for ADA-defined prediabetes and RR 1.28, 1.18-1.39 for IEC-defined prediabetes), as well as increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (RR 1.22 [1.10-1.35] and 1.42 [1.22-1.65], respectively), renal mortality (RR 1.35 [1.08-1.68] and 1.69 [1.24-2.31], respectively), and death from an acute diabetic crisis (RR 2.63 [1.76-3.94] and 3.43 [2.09-5.62], respectively). RRs were larger at younger than at older ages, and similar for men compared to women. The absolute excess risk associated with ADA and IEC-defined prediabetes at ages 35-74 accounted for6% and 3% of cardiovascular deaths respectively, 10% and 5% of renal deaths respectively, and 31% and 14% of acute diabetic deaths respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Prediabetes is a significant risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, renal, and acute diabetic deaths in Mexican adults. Identification and timely management of individuals with prediabetes for targeted risk reduction could contribute to reducing premature mortality from cardiometabolic causes in this population.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council. Instituto Nacional de Geriatría (Mexico City).

RESEARCH IN CONTEXT

Evidence before this study: We conducted a literature search in PubMed to identify articles published in English before February 27 th , 2024 that reported on prospective studies examining the association between prediabetes with all-cause or cause-specific mortality or progression to diabetes in a Mexican or Latin American population, using the terms ("prediabetes" OR "impaired fasting glucose" OR "impaired glucose tolerance") AND ("mortality" OR "death") AND ("Mexico" OR "Mexican" OR "Latin America" OR "Latin American"). There were no studies examining risk associated with prediabetes definitions and mortality among adults in Mexico. We identified one study from Peru that included 988 participants and investigated only all-cause mortality for impaired fasting glucose and HbA 1c -based definitions of prediabetes from ADA and IEC; this study reported increased mortality risk related to ADA-defined prediabetes based on HbA 1c measures. Generalizability of these findings to other Latin American countries and regions with distinct cardiometabolic profiles in unclear. Added value of this study: Our study included 115,919 participants without diabetes from Mexico City, of whom (26%) had ADA-defined prediabetes and 7,203 (7%) had IEC-defined prediabetes. We found that prediabetes is associated with higher risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular, renal, and acute diabetic causes) than among participants without prediabetes. We found RRs to be larger at younger than at older ages, and largely similar for men compared to women. Among those without previously diagnosed diabetes, we found that the excess risk associated with ADA- and IEC-defined prediabetes at ages 35-74 years accounted for 6% and 3% of cardiovascular deaths, 10% and 5% of renal deaths, and 31% and 14% of acute diabetic deaths, respectively. .Implications of all the available evidence: Our results show that prediabetes is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular, kidney, and acute diabetic deaths among Mexican adults and accounts for a notable fraction of such deaths. Identification of individuals with prediabetes should be prioritized for optimized management to improve cardiometabolic outcomes in Mexican adults.

Pediatric kidney dimensions and risk of persistent albuminuria in Mexican adolescents

In Mexico, chronic kidney disease of unknown origin is highly prevalent. Screening studies in adolescents have shown persistent microalbuminuria (pACR), adaptive podocytopathy and decreased kidney volume (KV). Here, we sought to develop normality tables of kidney dimensions by ultrasound in the Mexican state of Aguascalientes pediatric population (0 to 18y) and evaluate the relationship between the KV and pACR among the region's adolescents in a cross-sectional study. Kidney length (KL) and KV were determined by ultrasound. Our findings were compared with those in international literature of different populations where tables and graphs of normal kidney dimensions by ultrasound were reported. We compared organ dimensions in individuals above the age of 11 without albuminuria with those in patients with pACR recruited through screening studies in adolescents in Aguascalientes. This included 1068 individuals to construct percentile tables and graphs of the KL. Kidney dimensions were significantly lower when compared with all international comparisons. From a total 14,805 screen individuals, we compared 218 adolescents with pACR and 377 individuals without significant albuminuria. The Total KV adjusted to body surface (TKVBS) was significantly associated with pACR (odds ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.03). The upper quartile of TKVBS was highly associated with pACR (7.57, 4.13-13.87), hypertension (2.53, 1.66-3.86), and hyperfiltration (26 vs 11.5%). Thus, TKVBS is directly associated with pACR while greater KV, arterial hypertension, and hyperfiltration in patients with pACR suggest that the increase in volume is secondary to kidney hypertrophy. Additionally, the adaptative podocytopathy with low fibrosis seen on kidney biopsy which was performed in a subset of patients, and the smaller kidney dimensions in our population point to prenatal oligonephronia as the primary cause of the detected kidney disease.

Cardiovascular and Kidney Risks in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes: Contemporary Understanding With Greater Emphasis on Excess Adiposity

In high-income countries, rates of atherosclerotic complications in type 2 diabetes have declined markedly over time due to better management of traditional risk factors including lipids, blood pressure, and glycemia levels. Population-wide reductions in smoking have also helped lower atherosclerotic complications and so reduce premature mortality in type 2 diabetes. However, as excess adiposity is a stronger driver for heart failure (HF), and obesity levels have remained largely unchanged, HF risks have not declined as much and may even be rising in the increasing number of people developing type 2 diabetes at younger ages. Excess weight is also an underrecognized risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD). Based on evidence from a range of sources, we explain how excess adiposity must be influencing most risks well before diabetes develops, particularly in younger-onset diabetes, which is linked to greater excess adiposity. We also review potential mechanisms linking excess adiposity to HF and CKD and speculate on how some of the responsible pathways-e.g., hemodynamic, cellular overnutrition, and inflammatory-could be favorably influenced by intentional weight loss (via lifestyle or drugs). On the basis of available evidence, we suggest that the cardiorenal outcome benefits seen with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors may partially derive from their interference of some of these same pathways. We also note that many other complications common in diabetes (e.g., hepatic, joint disease, perhaps mental health) are also variably linked to excess adiposity, the aggregated exposure to which has now increased in type 2 diabetes. All such observations suggest a greater need to tackle excess adiposity earlier in type 2 diabetes.

Associations of the 'weekend warrior' physical activity pattern with all-cause, cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality: the Mexico City Prospective Study

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to investigate the benefits of the 'weekend warrior' physical activity pattern in Latin America, where many people take part in high levels of non-exercise physical activity.

METHODS

Participants in the Mexico City Prospective Study were surveyed from 1998 to 2004 and resurveyed from 2015 to 2019. Those who exercised up to once or twice per week were termed weekend warriors. Those who exercised more often were termed regularly active. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

The main analysis included 26 006 deaths in 154 882 adults (67% female) aged 52±13 years followed for 18±4 years (mean±SD). Compared with those who reported no exercise, the HR (95% CI) was 0.88 (0.83 to 0.93) in the weekend warriors and 0.88 (0.84 to 0.91) in the regularly active. Similar results were observed for cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality, but associations were weaker. Stratified analyses showed that substantial reductions in all-cause mortality risk only occurred when the duration of exercise sessions was at least 30-60 min. The repeated-measures analysis included 843 deaths in 10 023 adults followed for 20±2 years. Compared with being inactive or becoming inactive, the HR was 0.86 (95% CI 0.65 to 1.12) when being a weekend warrior or becoming a weekend warrior and 0.85 (95% CI 0.70 to 1.03) when being regularly active or becoming regularly active.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first prospective study to investigate the benefits of the weekend warrior physical activity pattern in Latin America. The results suggest that even busy adults could benefit from taking part in one or two sessions of exercise per week.

Trends in the mortality of diabetes in Mexico from 1998 to 2022: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort effect analysis

OBJECTIVE

The purpose was to analyze age-standardized trends in diabetes mortality rates (DMR) from 1998 to 2022, stratified by sex and Mexican state, and the effects attributable to age, period, and cohort by sex.

STUDY DESIGN

Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort effect analysis.

METHODS

Based on the tenth revision of the International Classification of Diseases, E11, E12, E13, and E14 codes of the death certificate, a daily record of mortality was extracted from the death certificate attributable to diabetes as the main cause. From 1998 to 2022, sexes and ages (≥20 years) were used to calculate the crude mortality rates and standardized at the national and Mexican state levels. Additionally, the age-period-cohort model was used to examine age, period, and cohort effects.

RESULTS

From 1998 to 2005, the age-adjusted DMR increased by 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7, 4.5) for the total population, as shown by the joinpoint regression analysis at a national level; from 2017 to 2020, it increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 0.6, 14.8). The DMR with the highest increase during the study period came mainly from states in the country's southeastern region, 2.3% to 3.7% per year. The net age and period effects showed that mortality increased with advancing age and with going time, respectively; and the net cohort effect revealed that mortality increased in more recent birth cohorts, mainly in men Rate Ratio (RR) = 2.37 (95% CI: 2.29, 2.46) vs RR = 1.13 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.17).

CONCLUSION

The DMR increased among older age groups. The period effect showed that mortality increased over time. Furthermore, the cohort effect showed that mortality increased in more recent birth cohorts, especially among men.

The burden of type 2 diabetes in adolescents and young adults in Mexico: analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990 to 2019

Purpose

The aim was to analyze the findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD-2019) study on type-2 diabetes in Mexico's adolescents and young adults, at a national and subnational scale from 1990 to 2019, and to assess its association with the socio-demographic, and the healthcare access and quality indices.

Methods

Following the GBD-2019 study, young-onset type 2 diabetes mortality, premature mortality, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are reported.

Results

A significant increase in the overall number of deaths attributed to young-onset T2D was found. There was a non-significant decrease in mortality rates for both sexes across most age groups. DALYs in men were greater than that in women, with almost half attributed to premature death in males, while disability accounted for two thirds of DALYs in females. The DALY rate increased significantly in most states. Premature mortality decreased, while disability increased across all age-groups, and in all states for both sexes.

Conclusion

The surge in disability corresponded to the upsurge in obesity and overweight rates in Mexico among the younger population. This happened despite improvements in socio-economic status and healthcare access in Mexico which underscores the need for diabetes education in the public health sector.

Trends of Antihypertensive, Antidiabetic, and Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs Use among the Health Workers Cohort Study, Mexico 2004 to 2018

Background

Hypertension and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are the most prevalent noncommunicable diseases in Mexico and worldwide. According to international practice management guidelines, the principal chronic management therapy is daily oral medication.

Aim

We aim to describe the trends of antihypertensive, antidiabetic, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) drugs use among the Mexican adult population from 2004-2018.

Methods

We analyzed data from the Health Workers Cohort Study (HWCS) for males and females aged >18 years. We calculated the prevalence of chronic diseases and utilization for every kind of antihypertensive, antidiabetic, and NSAIDs (measured by self-reported utilization) at baseline and two follow-ups (2004, 2010, and 2017). Trends were analyzed using Fisher's exact test.

Results

Hypertension prevalence increased from 19.8 to 30.3%, higher than T2D prevalence from 7.0 to 12.8% through fourteen years of follow-up. Like the self-reported dual therapy, the proportion of patients using beta-blockers and angiotensin II receptor blockers increased. Regarding T2D, the prevalence of metformin utilization increased to 83.9%. The utilization of common NSAIDs, mainly for muscular pain, remained around 13 to 16%.

Conclusions

Our findings showed a changing prevalence of drug utilization for hypertension and T2D between 2004 and 2018 and consistent use of NSAIDs in the adult Mexican population.

Trends in all-cause mortality among adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes in West Malaysia: 2010 - 2019

AIMS

We determined 10-year all-cause mortality trends in diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) population in West Malaysia, a middle-income country in the Western-Pacific region.

METHODS

One million T2D people aged 40-79 registered in the National Diabetes Registry (2009-2018) were linked to death records (censored on 31 December 2019). Standardized absolute mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated relative to the Malaysian general population, and standardized to the 2019 registry population with respect to sex, age group, and disease duration.

RESULTS

Overall all-cause standardized mortality rates were unchanged in both sexes. Rates increased in males aged 40-49 (annual average percent change [AAPC]: 2.46 % [95 % CI 0.42 %, 4.55 %]) and 50-59 (AAPC: 1.91 % [95 % CI 0.73 %, 3.10 %]), and females aged 40-49 (AAPC: 3.39 % [95 % CI 1.32 %, 5.50 %]). In both sexes, rates increased among those with 1) > 15 years disease duration, 2) prior cardiovascular disease, and 3) Bumiputera (Malay/native) ethnicity. The overall SMR was 1.83 (95 % CI 1.80, 1.86) for males and 1.85 (95 % CI 1.82, 1.89) for females, being higher in younger age groups and showed an increasing trend in those with either > 15 years disease duration or prior cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality trends worsened in certain T2D population in Malaysia.

Educational and social inequalities and cause-specific mortality in Mexico City: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Social inequalities in adult mortality have been reported across diverse populations, but there is no large-scale prospective evidence from Mexico. We aimed to quantify social, including educational, inequalities in mortality among adults in Mexico City.

METHODS

The Mexico City Prospective Study recruited 150 000 adults aged 35 years and older from two districts of Mexico City between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed up until Jan 1, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. Cox regression analysis yielded rate ratios (RRs) for death at ages 35-74 years associated with education and examined, in exploratory analyses, the mediating effects of lifestyle and related risk factors.

FINDINGS

Among 143 478 participants aged 35-74 years, there was a strong inverse association of education with premature death. Compared with participants with tertiary education, after adjustment for age and sex, those with no education had about twice the mortality rate (RR 1·84; 95% CI 1·71-1·98), equivalent to approximately 6 years lower life expectancy, with an RR of 1·78 (1·67-1·90) among participants with incomplete primary, 1·62 (1·53-1·72) with complete primary, and 1·34 (1·25-1·42) with secondary education. Education was most strongly associated with death from renal disease and acute diabetic crises (RR 3·65; 95% CI 3·05-4·38 for no education vs tertiary education) and from infectious diseases (2·67; 2·00-3·56), but there was an apparent higher rate of death from all specific causes studied with lower education, with the exception of cancer for which there was little association. Lifestyle factors (ie, smoking, alcohol drinking, and leisure time physical activity) and related physiological correlates (ie, adiposity, diabetes, and blood pressure) accounted for about four-fifths of the association of education with premature mortality.

INTERPRETATION

In this Mexican population there were marked educational inequalities in premature adult mortality, which appeared to largely be accounted for by lifestyle and related risk factors. Effective interventions to reduce these risk factors could reduce inequalities and have a major impact on premature mortality.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and the UK Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit.

Prescription of oral antidiabetics in Mexico. A cross-sectional study

In 2016 diabetes was declared an epidemic and a health emergency in Mexico. As the rationale of the treatment is to achieve target glycemia levels, the appropriateness of the medications used is important. The aim of this study is to learn the pattern of antidiabetic drug prescription and factors associated with inappropriate prescription in Mexico. A retrospective cross-sectional drug utilization study has been conducted. A randomly selected sample was carefully examined. Out of 3600 clinical records of patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), 196 records were revised. As far as control is concerned, 36.7% had their glycemia values in the recommended range. A combination of different antidiabetics was the most common pattern observed (60.7%); the most frequent was that of the association of metformin with whatever oral antidiabetics. Prescriptions were considered as inappropriate in 149 cases (76.0%); younger age and lack of nutritional assessment was significantly related to inappropriate prescription. A trend to use more drugs for treating T2DM has been consistently observed. Despite using so many drugs, most of the patients are not controlled. Avoiding inappropriate prescription by following current guidelines may contribute to a better control and, in turn, decrease morbidity and mortality for this cause.

Unveiling the Burden of Miscoding and Misclassification in Stroke Mortality: Analysis of Multiple Cause-of-Death Data in Mexico

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of risk factors for cerebrovascular diseases in Mexico is increasing although stroke mortality declined from 1990 to 2010, without meaningful changes afterward. While improving access to adequate prevention and care could explain this trend, miscoding and misclassification in death certificates need to be assessed to unveil the true burden of stroke in Mexico. Practices in death certification along with the presence of multi-morbidity could contribute to this distortion. Analyses of multiple causes of death could reveal ill-defined stroke deaths, providing a glimpse of this bias.

METHODS

Cause-of-death information from 4,262,666 death certificates in Mexico from 2009 to 2015, was examined to determine the extent of miscoding and misclassification on the true burden of stroke. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants (ASMR) were calculated for stroke as underlying and multiple causes of death, by sex and state. Deaths were classified following international standards as ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and unspecified, which were kept as an independent category to measure miscoding. To approximate misclassification, we compared ASMR under three misclassification scenarios: (1) current (the status quo); (2) moderate, which includes deaths from selected causes mentioning stroke; and (3) high which includes all deaths mentioning stroke. National and subnational data were analyzed to search for geographical patterns.

RESULTS

The burden of stroke in Mexico is underreported due to miscoding and misclassification. Miscoding is an important issue since almost 60% of all stroke deaths are registered as unspecified. Multiple cause analysis indicates that stroke ASMR could increase 39.9%-52.9% of the current ASMR under moderate and high misclassification scenarios, respectively. Both problems indicate the need to improve death codification procedures and cause-of-death classification.

CONCLUSIONS

Miscoding and misclassification lead to underestimation of the burden of stroke in Mexico. Stroke deaths are underreported when other important causes coexist, being diabetes the most frequent.

MDRD is the eGFR equation most strongly associated with 4-year mortality among patients with diabetes in Colombia

INTRODUCTION

We compared the association of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated with the Cockcroft-Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (MDRD), Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI), or the new CKD-EPI without race (CKD-EPI-NR) equations, with 4-year all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed a nationwide, centralized database of all adults diagnosed with diabetes assisted by the Colombian Health System between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2019. Plasma creatinine was used to calculate baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and classify each patient in a chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage, by each of the four equations. We used multivariate logistic regression to compare the association between CKD stage and mortality, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses to assess the overall association of eGFR by each equation and mortality.

RESULTS

The study included 758,219 patients (58% female, 7.2% black race, mean age 62.3, Glycated hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] 7.4%). There were 35,296 deaths over the study follow-up. Considering eGFR by each equation as a continuous variable, the odds of death decreased by 1.1%-1.5% for each additional mL/min. Compared with CKD stage 1 of each equation, being placed in CKD stages 3a, 3b, or 4 by MDRD or CKD-EPI-NR was associated with greater odds of death than being categorized in the same stages by CKD-EPI. Among patients of black race, the adjusted OR of mortality for CKD stage 4 relative to stage 1 was 4.63 (95% CI 3.39 to 6.35) for MDRD, 3.66 (2.85 to 4.69) for CKD-EPI-NR, 3.01 (2.38 to 3.81) for CKD-EPI, and 2.82 (2.29 to 3.49) for Cockcroft-Gault. The area under the ROC curve to discriminate by survival status was greatest for MDRD, followed by CKD-EPI-NR, CKD-EPI, and Cockcroft-Gault, in that order (p<0.001 for all differences).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with other eGFR equations, MDRD showed the strongest association with all-cause mortality in a sample of Latin-American patients with diabetes. This difference was most pronounced among patients of black race.

Dysbiosis signatures of gut microbiota and the progression of type 2 diabetes: a machine learning approach in a Mexican cohort

Introduction

The gut microbiota (GM) dysbiosis is one of the causal factors for the progression of different chronic metabolic diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). Understanding the basis that laid this association may lead to developing new therapeutic strategies for preventing and treating T2D, such as probiotics, prebiotics, and fecal microbiota transplants. It may also help identify potential early detection biomarkers and develop personalized interventions based on an individual's gut microbiota profile. Here, we explore how supervised Machine Learning (ML) methods help to distinguish taxa for individuals with prediabetes (prediabetes) or T2D.

Methods

To this aim, we analyzed the GM profile (16s rRNA gene sequencing) in a cohort of 410 Mexican naïve patients stratified into normoglycemic, prediabetes, and T2D individuals. Then, we compared six different ML algorithms and found that Random Forest had the highest predictive performance in classifying T2D and prediabetes patients versus controls.

Results

We identified a set of taxa for predicting patients with T2D compared to normoglycemic individuals, including Allisonella, Slackia, Ruminococus_2, Megaspgaera, Escherichia/Shigella, and Prevotella, among them. Besides, we concluded that Anaerostipes, Intestinibacter, Prevotella_9, Blautia, Granulicatella, and Veillonella were the relevant genus in patients with prediabetes compared to normoglycemic subjects.

Discussion

These findings allow us to postulate that GM is a distinctive signature in prediabetes and T2D patients during the development and progression of the disease. Our study highlights the role of GM and opens a window toward the rational design of new preventive and personalized strategies against the control of this disease.

Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and carotid artery plaques in patients with coronary heart disease in different glucose metabolism states: an RCSCD-TCM study in Tianjin, China

BACKGROUND

The atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) is considered a powerful biomarker of dyslipidemia and atherosclerosis (AS). However, limited evidence is available regarding the relationship between the AIP and carotid artery plaques (CAPs) in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 9281 patients with CHD who underwent carotid ultrasound. Participants were divided according to the AIP tertiles: T1, AIP < 1.02; T2, 1.02 ≤ AIP < 1.25; and T3, AIP ≥ 1.25. The presence or absence of CAPs was assessed using carotid ultrasound. Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between the AIP and CAPs in patients with CHD. The relationship between the AIP and CAPs was assessed according to sex, age, and glucose metabolic status.

RESULTS

The baseline characteristics revealed significant differences in related parameters among patients with CHD after stratification into the three groups according to the AIP tertiles. Compared with T1, the odds ratio (OR) of T3 in patients with CHD was 1.53 (95% confidence interval [CI]:1.35-1.74). The association between AIP and CAPs was higher in females (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.38-1.92) than in males (OR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.12-1.70). The OR for patients aged ≤60 years (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.14-1.71) was lower than that for patients aged >60 years (OR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.26-1.76). AIP was significantly associated with the risk of CAPs formation in different glucose metabolic states, with diabetes having the highest OR value (OR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.19-1.43).

CONCLUSION

The AIP and CAPs were significantly associated in patients with CHD, and the association was higher in female than in male patients. The association was lower in patients aged ≤60 years than in patients aged >60 years. Under different glucose metabolism statuses, the association between the AIP and the CAPs among patients with CHD was highest in patients with diabetes.

Diabetes and obesity and risk of pyogenic liver abscess

Few literatures discussed the relationship of glycemic control and body mass index (BMI) with the risk of pyogenic liver abscess. We conducted a population-based cohort study using participants of a community-based health screening program in Taiwan from 2005 to 2008 (n = 125,865). Information on fasting plasma glucose (FPG), BMI, and other potential risk factors of liver abscess were collected at baseline. Incidence of pyogenic liver abscess was ascertained using inpatient records from the National Health Insurance database. During a median 8.6 years of followed up, 192 incident cases of pyogenic liver abscess were reported. The incidence rate of pyogenic liver abscess was 70.2 and 14.7 per 100,000 in the diabetic and non-diabetic population respectively. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 2.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-3.90) in patients with diabetes with good glycemic control (FPG ≤ 130 mg/dl) and 3.34 (95% CI 2.37-4.72) in those with poor glycemic control (FPG > 130 mg/dl), when compared with non-diabetics. In the dose-response analysis, the risk of liver abscess increased monotonically with increasing FPG. After adjusting for diabetes and other comorbidities, overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) (adjusted HR: 1.43, 95% CI 1.05-1.95) and obese (BMI ≥ 30) (adjusted HR: 1.75, 95% CI 1.09-2.81) populations had a higher risk of liver abscess when compared to people with normal weight. Diabetes, especially poorly controlled disease, and high BMI were associated with higher risk of pyogenic liver abscess. Improving glycemic control and weight reduction may reduce the risk of developing pyogenic liver abscess.

Identification of key immune-related genes and immune infiltration in diabetic nephropathy based on machine learning algorithms

BACKGROUND

Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is a complication of diabetes. This study aimed to identify potential diagnostic markers of DN and explore the significance of immune cell infiltration in this pathology.

METHODS

The GSE30528, GSE96804, and GSE1009 datasets were downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified by merging the GSE30528 and GSE96804 datasets. Enrichment analyses of the DEGs were performed. A LASSO regression model, support vector machine recursive feature elimination analysis and random forest analysis methods were performed to identify candidate biomarkers. The CIBERSORT algorithm was utilised to compare immune infiltration between DN and normal controls.

RESULTS

In total, 115 DEGs were obtained. The enrichment analysis showed that the DEGs were prominent in immune and inflammatory responses. The DEGs were closely related to kidney disease, urinary system disease, kidney cancer etc. CXCR2, DUSP1, and LPL were recognised as diagnostic markers of DN. The immune cell infiltration analysis indicated that DN patients contained a higher ratio of memory B cells, gamma delta T cells, M1 macrophages, M2 macrophages etc. cells than normal people.

CONCLUSION

Immune cell infiltration is important for the occurrence of DN. CXCR2, DUSP1, and LPL may become novel diagnostic markers of DN.

Moderation effects of serotype on dengue severity across pregnancy status in Mexico

BACKGROUND

Pregnancy increases a woman's risk of severe dengue. To the best of our knowledge, the moderation effect of the dengue serotype among pregnant women has not been studied in Mexico. This study explores how pregnancy interacted with the dengue serotype from 2012 to 2020 in Mexico.

METHOD

Information from 2469 notifying health units in Mexican municipalities was used for this cross-sectional analysis. Multiple logistic regression with interaction effects was chosen as the final model and sensitivity analysis was done to assess potential exposure misclassification of pregnancy status.

RESULTS

Pregnant women were found to have higher odds of severe dengue [1.50 (95% CI 1.41, 1.59)]. The odds of dengue severity varied for pregnant women with DENV-1 [1.45, (95% CI 1.21, 1.74)], DENV-2 [1.33, (95% CI 1.18, 1.53)] and DENV-4 [3.78, (95% CI 1.14, 12.59)]. While the odds of severe dengue were generally higher for pregnant women compared with non-pregnant women with DENV-1 and DENV-2, the odds of disease severity were much higher for those infected with the DENV-4 serotype.

CONCLUSION

The effect of pregnancy on severe dengue is moderated by the dengue serotype. Future studies on genetic diversification may potentially elucidate this serotype-specific effect among pregnant women in Mexico.

Diabetes and infectious disease mortality in Mexico City

INTRODUCTION

Although higher risks of infectious diseases among individuals with diabetes have long been recognized, the magnitude of these risks is poorly described, particularly in lower income settings. This study sought to assess the risk of death from infection associated with diabetes in Mexico.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Between 1998 and 2004, a total of 159 755 adults ≥35 years were recruited from Mexico City and followed up until January 2021 for cause-specific mortality. Cox regression yielded adjusted rate ratios (RR) for death due to infection associated with previously diagnosed and undiagnosed (HbA1c ≥6.5%) diabetes and, among participants with previously diagnosed diabetes, with duration of diabetes and with HbA1c.

RESULTS

Among 130 997 participants aged 35-74 and without other prior chronic diseases at recruitment, 12.3% had previously diagnosed diabetes, with a mean (SD) HbA1c of 9.1% (2.5%), and 4.9% had undiagnosed diabetes. During 2.1 million person-years of follow-up, 2030 deaths due to infectious causes were recorded at ages 35-74. Previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with an RR for death from infection of 4.48 (95% CI 4.05-4.95), compared with participants without diabetes, with notably strong associations with death from urinary tract (9.68 (7.07-13.3)) and skin, bone and connective tissue (9.19 (5.92-14.3)) infections and septicemia (8.37 (5.97-11.7)). In those with previously diagnosed diabetes, longer diabetes duration (1.03 (1.02-1.05) per 1 year) and higher HbA1c (1.12 (1.08-1.15) per 1.0%) were independently associated with higher risk of death due to infection. Even among participants with undiagnosed diabetes, the risk of death due to infection was nearly treble the risk of those without diabetes (2.69 (2.31-3.13)).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study of Mexican adults, diabetes was common, frequently poorly controlled, and associated with much higher risks of death due to infection than observed previously, accounting for approximately one-third of all premature mortality due to infection.

Is the steady-state concentration, duration of action, or molecular weight of GLP-1RA associated with cardiovascular and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes?

IMPORTANCE

Disparities were found in the cardiovascular and renal outcomes among different glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) subtypes. However, whether the characteristics of GLP-1RA itself are associated with these disparities remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between the steady-state concentration, duration of action, or molecular weight of GLP-1RA and the risks of cardiovascular and renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane and Clinicaltrial.gov from inception to April 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating GLP-1RAs in patients with T2D were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Literature screening and data extraction were performed independently by 2 researchers. The outcomes were computed as odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). Subgroup analyses were conducted according to steady-state concentration, duration of action and molecular weight of GLP-1RAs.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), composite renal outcome and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

In all, 61 RCTs were included. When compared with non-GLP-1RA agents, GLP-1RAs with high steady-state concentration were associated with greater risk reduction in MACE (p for subgroup difference = 0.01) and the composite renal outcome (p for subgroup difference = 0.008) in patients with T2D. Greater risk reductions in MACE between GLP-1RA users versus non-GLP-RA users were observed in long acting stratum when compared with short acting stratum (p for subgroup difference = 0.04) in patients with T2D. The molecular weight of GLP-1RAs was not associated with the risk of cardiovascular and renal outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

GLP-1RAs with high steady-state concentrations might be associated with greater risk reductions in cardiovascular and renal outcomes in patients with T2D. Long acting GLP-1RAs might outperform short acting ones in reducing the risk of cardiovascular outcomes. These findings provided new insights for guiding the clinical applications of GLP-1RAs in patients with T2D.

Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: A prospective longitudinal analysis

AIMS

We seek to understand the coexisting effects of population aging and a rising burden of diabetes on healthy longevity in South Africa.

METHODS

We used longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI) study to explore life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of adults aged 45 and older with and without diabetes in rural South Africa. We estimated LE and DFLE by diabetes status using Markov-based microsimulation.

RESULTS

We find a clear gradient in remaining LE and DFLE based on diabetes status. At age 45, a man without diabetes could expect to live 7.4 [95% CI 3.4 - 11.7] more years than a man with diabetes, and a woman without diabetes could expect to live 3.9 [95% CI: 0.8 - 6.9] more years than a woman with diabetes. Individuals with diabetes lived proportionately more years subject to disability than individuals without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

We find large and important decrements in disability-free aging for people with diabetes in South Africa. This finding should motivate efforts to strengthen prevention and treatment efforts for diabetes and its complications for older adults in this setting.

Body Composition and Risk of Vascular-Metabolic Mortality Risk in 113 000 Mexican Men and Women Without Prior Chronic Disease

Background Body-mass index is the sum of fat mass index (FMI) and lean mass index (LMI), which vary by age, sex, and impact on disease outcomes. We investigated the separate and joint relevance of FMI and LMI with vascular-metabolic causes of death in Mexican adults. Methods and Results A total of 113 025 adults aged 35 to 74 years and free from diabetes or other chronic diseases when recruited into the Mexico City Prospective Study were followed for 19 years. Cox models estimated sex-specific death rate ratios from vascular-metabolic causes after adjustment for confounders and exclusion of the first 5 years of follow-up. To account for the strong correlation between FMI and LMI, additional models estimated rate ratios associated with "residual FMI" and "residual LMI" (ie, the residuals from linear regression analyses of FMI on LMI, or vice versa). In both sexes, higher FMI and LMI were associated with higher risks of vascular-metabolic mortality. For a given (ie, fixed) level of LMI, the rate ratio (95% CI) for vascular-metabolic mortality per 1 kg/m2 higher residual FMI strengthened and was higher in women (1.52 [1.38-1.68]) than in men (1.19 [1.13-1.25]). By contrast, for a given level of FMI, higher residual LMI was inversely associated with vascular-metabolic mortality (rate ratio per 1 kg/m2 0.67 [0.56-0.80] in women and 0.94 [0.90-0.98] in men). Conclusions In this study, higher residual FMI was more strongly associated with vascular-metabolic mortality in women than in men. Conversely, higher residual LMI was inversely associated with vascular-metabolic mortality, particularly in women.

Oxidation State in Peritoneal Dialysis in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) progression is closely related to oxidative stress (OS). The study objective was to determine the oxidant and antioxidant status in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). An analytical cross-sectional study from the PD program was carried out with 62 patients, 22 with and 40 without DM. Lipoperoxides (LPO) levels in patients with DM, 3.74 ± 1.09 mM/L, and without DM, 3.87 ± 0.84 mM/L were found to increase compared to healthy controls (HC) 3.05 ± 0.58 mM/L (p = 0.006). The levels of the oxidative DNA damage marker (8-OH-dG) were found to be significantly increased in patients with DM, 1.71 ng/mL (0.19-71.92) and without DM, 1.05 ng/mL (0.16-68.80) front to 0.15 ng/mL (0.15-0.1624) of HC (p = 0.001). The antioxidant enzyme superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity was found to be significantly increased in patients with DM, 0.37 ± 0.15 U/mL, and without DM, 0.37 ± 0.17 compared to HC, 0.23 ± 0.05 U/mL (p = 0.038). The activity of the enzyme glutathione peroxidase (GPx) showed a significant increase (p < 0.001) in patients with DM, 3.56 ± 2.18 nmol/min/mL, and without DM, 3.28 ± 1.46 nmol/min/mL, contrary to the activity obtained in HC, 1.55 ± 0.34 nmol/min/mL. In conclusion, we found an imbalance of oxidative status in patients undergoing PD with and without DM through the significant increase in LPO oxidants and the marker of oxidative damage in DNA. The activity of the antioxidant enzymes SOD and GPx were significantly increased in patients with and without DM undergoing PD, possibly in an attempt to compensate for the deregulation of oxidants. Antioxidant enzymes could be promising therapeutic strategies as a complement to the management of chronic kidney diseases.

Diabetes-Related Excess Mortality in Mexico: A Comparative Analysis of National Death Registries Between 2017-2019 and 2020

OBJECTIVE

To estimate diabetes-related mortality in Mexico in 2020 compared with 2017-2019 after the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This retrospective, state-level study used national death registries of Mexican adults aged ≥20 years for the 2017-2020 period. Diabetes-related death was defined using ICD-10 codes listing diabetes as the primary cause of death, excluding certificates with COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. Spatial and negative binomial regression models were used to characterize the geographic distribution and sociodemographic and epidemiologic correlates of diabetes-related excess mortality, estimated as increases in diabetes-related mortality in 2020 compared with average 2017-2019 rates.

RESULTS

We identified 148,437 diabetes-related deaths in 2020 (177 per 100,000 inhabitants) vs. an average of 101,496 deaths in 2017-2019 (125 per 100,000 inhabitants). In-hospital diabetes-related deaths decreased by 17.8% in 2020 versus 2017-2019, whereas out-of-hospital deaths increased by 89.4%. Most deaths were attributable to type 2 diabetes (130 per 100,000 inhabitants). Compared with 2018-2019 data, hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state and diabetic ketoacidosis were the two contributing causes with the highest increase in mortality (128% and 116% increase, respectively). Diabetes-related excess mortality clustered in southern Mexico and was highest in states with higher social lag, rates of COVID-19 hospitalization, and prevalence of HbA1c ≥7.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes-related deaths increased among Mexican adults by 41.6% in 2020 after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, occurred disproportionately outside the hospital, and were largely attributable to type 2 diabetes and hyperglycemic emergencies. Disruptions in diabetes care and strained hospital capacity may have contributed to diabetes-related excess mortality in Mexico during 2020.

[Integrating hypertension and diabetes management in primary health care settings: HEARTS as a toolIntegrando o manejo da hipertensão e do diabetes na atenção primária à saúde: uso do HEARTS como instrumento]

Hypertension and diabetes are modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors that contribute to nearly one-third of all deaths in the Americas Region each year (2.3 million deaths). Despite advances in the detection and clinical management of hypertension and diabetes, there are substantial gaps in their implementation globally and in the Region. The considerable overlap in risk factors, prognosis, and treatment of hypertension and diabetes creates a unique opportunity for a unified implementation model for management at the population level. This report highlights one such high-profile effort, the Pan American Health Organization's "HEARTS in the Americas" program, based on the World Health Organization's HEARTS Technical Package for Cardiovascular Disease Management in Primary Health Care. The HEARTS program aims to improve the implementation of preventive CVD care in primary health systems using six evidence-based, pragmatic components: Healthy-lifestyle counseling, Evidence-based protocols, Access to essential medicines and technology, Risk-based CVD management, Team-based care, and Systems for monitoring. To date, HEARTS implementation projects have focused primarily on hypertension given that it is the leading modifiable CVD risk factor and can be treated cost-effectively. The objective of this report is to describe opportunities for integration of diabetes clinical care and policy within the HEARTS hypertension framework. A substantial global burden of disease could be averted with integrated primary care management of these conditions. Thus, there is an urgency in applying lessons from HEARTS to close these implementation gaps and improve the integrated detection, treatment, and control of diabetes and hypertension.

Human genetics uncovers MAP3K15 as an obesity-independent therapeutic target for diabetes

We performed collapsing analyses on 454,796 UK Biobank (UKB) exomes to detect gene-level associations with diabetes. Recessive carriers of nonsynonymous variants in MAP3K15 were 30% less likely to develop diabetes (P = 5.7 × 10-10) and had lower glycosylated hemoglobin (β = -0.14 SD units, P = 1.1 × 10-24). These associations were independent of body mass index, suggesting protection against insulin resistance even in the setting of obesity. We replicated these findings in 96,811 Admixed Americans in the Mexico City Prospective Study (P < 0.05)Moreover, the protective effect of MAP3K15 variants was stronger in individuals who did not carry the Latino-enriched SLC16A11 risk haplotype (P = 6.0 × 10-4). Separately, we identified a Finnish-enriched MAP3K15 protein-truncating variant associated with decreased odds of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes (P < 0.05) in FinnGen. No adverse phenotypes were associated with protein-truncating MAP3K15 variants in the UKB, supporting this gene as a therapeutic target for diabetes.

A comparison of rural-urban differences in out-of-pocket expenses among older Mexicans with diabetes

Objective

To compare total out-of-pocket expenses for physician visits and medications among older adults living with diabetes in Mexico from urban, semi-urban, and rural areas.

Methods

The sample included 2,398 Mexicans aged 65 years and older with self-reported diabetes from the 2018 Mexican Health and Aging Study. Out-of-pocket expenses for physician visits and medications were regressed on locality, controlling for several factors.

Results

The profile of those with higher out-of-pocket medication expenditures included rural localities, higher education, unmarried, depressive symptoms, participation in Seguro Popular, and lacking insurance. In the multivariate analysis, rural older adults with diabetes paid a higher amount in medication expenditures compared with other localities.

Conclusion

Differences in locality are closely tied to the effective implementation of Seguro Popular. Although this program has improved access to care, participants have higher out-of-pocket expenditures for medications than those on employer-based plans across all localities. Among all groups, the uninsured bare the highest burden of expenditures, highlighting a continued need to address health inequities for the most underserved populations.

Sex- and gender-differences in chronic long-term complications of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Italy

AIMS

This review summarizes the contribution of Italian diabetologists devoted to a better understanding of the complex relationship linking sex/gender and long-term complications of type 1 (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) over the last fifteen years.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Microvascular and macrovascular complications of diabetes show sex- and gender-related differences, involving pathophysiological mechanisms, epidemiological features and clinical presentation, due to the interaction between biological and psychosocial factors. These differences greatly impact on the progression of diabetes and its long-term complications, especially in the cardiovascular, renal and liver districts.

CONCLUSION

A better knowledge of such sex- and gender-related characteristics is required for a more precise patient phenotypization, and for the choice of a personalized antihyperglycemic treatment. Despite such mounting evidence, current diabetes clinical guidelines do not as yet adequately consider sex/gender differences.

Integrating hypertension and diabetes management in primary health care settings: HEARTS as a tool

Hypertension and diabetes are modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors that contribute to nearly one-third of all deaths in the Americas Region each year (2.3 million deaths). Despite advances in the detection and clinical management of hypertension and diabetes, there are substantial gaps in their implementation globally and in the Region. The considerable overlap in risk factors, prognosis, and treatment of hypertension and diabetes creates a unique opportunity for a unified implementation model for management at the population level. This report highlights one such high-profile effort, the Pan American Health Organization's "HEARTS in the Americas" program, based on the World Health Organization's HEARTS Technical Package for Cardiovascular Disease Management in Primary Health Care. The HEARTS program aims to improve the implementation of preventive CVD care in primary health systems using six evidence-based, pragmatic components: Healthy-lifestyle counseling, Evidence-based protocols, Access to essential medicines and technology, Risk-based CVD management, Team-based care, and Systems for monitoring. To date, HEARTS implementation projects have focused primarily on hypertension given that it is the leading modifiable CVD risk factor and can be treated cost-effectively. The objective of this report is to describe opportunities for integration of diabetes clinical care and policy within the HEARTS hypertension framework. A substantial global burden of disease could be averted with integrated primary care management of these conditions. Thus, there is an urgency in applying lessons from HEARTS to close these implementation gaps and improve the integrated detection, treatment, and control of diabetes and hypertension.

Mortality differentials by previous diagnosis of diabetes and glycemic status in the United States

AIMS

This study examines mortality differences associated with current glycemic status in mortality by current glycemic status among adults with a previously diagnosed diabetes. Using previous clinical diagnosis of diabetes (diagnosed diabetes) and laboratory measures of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measured at baseline, we estimated mortality differentials simultaneously by diagnosed diabetes and baseline glycemic status in the United States.

METHODS

Data were from 39,491 adults aged 30-84 years assessed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III and continuous NHANES 1999-2014 linked to mortality data. We categorized participants into four mutually exclusive groups based on diagnosed diabetes and glycemic control measured by HbA1c ≥6.5 % at baseline. Relative hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause death among these four groups were estimated using Cox proportional models.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in mortality by glycemic control status among adults with diagnosed diabetes. The same finding was observed among adults without diagnosed diabetes. Adults with diagnosed diabetes had higher mortality than adults without diagnosed diabetes independent of their baseline glycemic control.

CONCLUSIONS

Once diagnosed with diabetes, US adults with normal- and hyper-glycemia showed no significant difference in all-cause mortality. This finding emphasizes the importance of primary prevention interventions among adults with a sign of early-stage diabetes.

Multiancestry exome sequencing reveals INHBE mutations associated with favorable fat distribution and protection from diabetes

Body fat distribution is a major, heritable risk factor for cardiometabolic disease, independent of overall adiposity. Using exome-sequencing in 618,375 individuals (including 160,058 non-Europeans) from the UK, Sweden and Mexico, we identify 16 genes associated with fat distribution at exome-wide significance. We show 6-fold larger effect for fat-distribution associated rare coding variants compared with fine-mapped common alleles, enrichment for genes expressed in adipose tissue and causal genes for partial lipodystrophies, and evidence of sex-dimorphism. We describe an association with favorable fat distribution (p = 1.8 × 10^-09), favorable metabolic profile and protection from type 2 diabetes (~28% lower odds; p = 0.004) for heterozygous protein-truncating mutations in INHBE, which encodes a circulating growth factor of the activin family, highly and specifically expressed in hepatocytes. Our results suggest that inhibin βE is a liver-expressed negative regulator of adipose storage whose blockade may be beneficial in fat distribution-associated metabolic disease.

Glycated hemoglobin levels and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in hemodialysis patients with diabetes

AIM

Adequate glycemic control is fundamental for improving clinical outcomes in hemodialysis patients with diabetes. However, the target for glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level and whether cause-specific mortality differs based on HbA1c levels remain unclear.

METHODS

A total of 24,243 HD patients with diabetes were enrolled from a multicenter, nationwide registry. We examined the association between HbA1c levels and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Compared to patients with HbA1c 6.5%-7.5%, patients with HbA_1c 8.5-9.5% and ≥9.5% were associated with a 1.26-fold (95% CI, 1.12-1.42) and 1.56-fold (95% CI, 1.37-1.77) risk for all-cause mortality. The risk of all-cause mortality did not increase in patients with HbA1c < 5.5%. In cause-specific mortality, the risk of cardiovascular deaths significantly increased from small increase of HbA1c levels. However, the risk of other causes of death increased only in patients with HbA1c > 9.5%. The slope of HR increase with increasing HbA1c levels was significantly faster for cardiovascular causes than for other causes.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a linear relationship between HbA1c levels and risk of all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients, and the risk of cardiovascular death increased earlier and more rapidly, with increasing HbA1c levels, compared with other causes of death.

Effect of Glucagon-like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists on the Renal Protection in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

. - Glucagon-like peptide 1(GLP-1) receptor agonists are used in patients with type 2 diabetes as hypoglycemic drugs; a growing body of evidence has clarified their renoprotective benefits. We performed a meta-analysis to summarize the most recent evidence on the renal benefits of GLP-1 receptor agonists from clinical trials of patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

. - This meta-analysis used a fixed-effects model to estimate the risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to investigate the effect of GLP-1 receptor agonists on the renal protection. The outcomes were a composite renal outcome, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decrease, new macroalbuminuria, doubling of serum creatinine, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and renal death. We also checked the composite renal outcome of the patient subgroups based on the structural source of human GLP-1 or exendin-4.

RESULTS

. - Among the 12 articles screened, seven studies involving 48101 patients met pre-specified criteria and were included. In general, the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced the risk of the composite renal outcome by 17% (RR 0•83 [95% CI 0•79-0•88]; P < 0•00001), with no significant interaction in subgroups analysis (P = 0.66); the risk of new-onset of persistent macroalbuminuria was reduced by 25% (RR 0•75 [95%CI 0•69-0•81]; P < 0•00001) compared to placebo. However, GLP-1 receptor agonists had no significant effect on eGFR decrease (RR 0•92 [95% CI 0•83-1.01]; P = 0•09), doubling of serum creatinine (RR 0•97 [95% CI 0•78-1.21]; P = 0•79), or end-stage renal disease (RR 0•81 [95% CI 0•62-1.06]; P = 0•12) compared to placebo or insulin glargine (AWARD-7) in patients with type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSION

. - GLP-1 receptor agonists, regardless of their structural homology, have significant benefits in reducing the risk of the composite renal outcome, especially in new macroalbuminuria compared with placebo or insulin glargine in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Trends and effect of marginalization on diabetes mellitus-related mortality in Mexico from 1990 to 2019

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is currently one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. However, the disease evolves differently across countries. This study intends to characterize the trends and assess the potential effects of marginalization on DM mortality between 1990 and 2019 in Mexico. We analyzed death certificates that listed DM as the underlying cause of death (N = 1,907,173), as well as the extent to which DM mortality changes were associated with marginalization through an age-period-cohort analysis. DM mortality increased in Mexico between 1990 and 2019; the change was faster in the first half and slowed down after 2004. The highest marginalization quintiles drove the changes in DM mortality trends during the study period, with a higher risk of dying in these quintiles as age increased. In recent cohorts, the highest marginalization quintiles doubled the risk of dying from DM as compared to the lowest. Renal complications was the main death driver among persons with DM, with a marked increase between 1999 and 2001. In conclusion, Mexico continues to have a substantially high DM mortality, but its pace slowed over time. Moreover, subnational differences in marginalization can partially explain such a trend.

Trends in the burden of stroke in Mexico: A national and subnational analysis of the global burden of disease 1990-2019

Background

Scarce epidemiological information on stroke in Mexico impedes evidence-based decisions and debilitates the design of effective prevention programmes at the local level.

Methods

Ecological and secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease national and subnational data for Mexico, from 1990 to 2019. We analysed the incidence, prevalence, deaths, premature mortality, disability, and DALYs due to cerebrovascular disease included to identify the differences in the burden of stroke in Mexico by type of stroke (ischaemic [IS], intracerebral haemorrhage [ICH] and subarachnoid haemorrhage [SAH]), sex, age groups, and state levels ordered by quartiles of Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Means and 95% uncertainty intervals are reported.

Findings

Reductions in all metrics of total stroke occurred during the 1990 to 2005 period; however, this declining trend was followed up by stagnation of progress from 2006 to 2019, except for premature mortality. This pattern of the declining trend was observed also for IS and to a lesser extent for ICH, while SAH showed no major changes during the 1990-2019 period. The magnitude of decline was higher in females for total stroke for incidence, prevalence and YLDs rates. The less developed states by SDI exhibited the lowest improvements during the period, particularly for ICH metrics.

Interpretation

The reduction in stroke burden in Mexico did not follow the same pace for all types of stroke, with regional differences by SDI and by sex. Study findings reveal the need for strengthening prevention policies to address health disparities in the burden of stroke by sex and states, within the fragmented Mexican Healthcare System.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Interpreting global trends in type 2 diabetes complications and mortality

International trends in traditional diabetes complications (cardiovascular, renal, peripheral vascular, ophthalmic, hepatic or neurological diseases) and mortality rates are poorly characterised. An earlier review of studies published up to 2015 demonstrated that most data come from a dozen high-income countries (HICs) in North America, Europe or the Asia-Pacific region and that, in these countries at least, rates of acute glycaemic fluctuations needing medical attention and amputations, myocardial infarction and mortality were all declining over the period. Here, we provide an updated review of published literature on trends in type 2 diabetes complications and mortality in adults since 2015. We also discuss issues related to data collection, analysis and reporting that have influenced global trends in type 2 diabetes and its complications. We found that most data on trends in type 2 diabetes, its complications and mortality come from a small number of HICs with comprehensive surveillance systems, though at least some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from Africa and Latin America are represented in this review. The published data suggest that HICs have experienced declines in cardiovascular complication rates and all-cause mortality in people with diabetes. In parallel, cardiovascular complications and mortality rates in people with diabetes have increased over time in LMICs. However, caution is warranted in interpreting trends from LMICs due to extremely sparse data or data that are not comparable across countries. We noted that approaches to case ascertainment and definitions of complications and mortality (numerators) and type 2 diabetes (the denominator) vary widely and influence the interpretation of international data. We offer four key recommendations to more rigorously document trends in rates of type 2 diabetes complications and mortality, over time and worldwide: (1) increasing investments in data collection systems; (2) standardising case definitions and approaches to ascertainment; (3) strengthening analytical capacity; and (4) developing and implementing structured guidelines for reporting of data.

Exosome microRNAs in Metabolic Syndrome as Tools for the Early Monitoring of Diabetes and Possible Therapeutic Options

Exosomes are nano-sized extracellular vesicles produced and released by almost all cell types. They play an essential role in cell-cell communications by delivering cellular bioactive compounds such as functional proteins, metabolites, and nucleic acids, including microRNA, to recipient cells. Thus, they are involved in various physio-pathological conditions. Exosome-miRNAs are associated with numerous diseases, including type 2 diabetes, a complex multifactorial metabolic disorder linked to obesity. In addition, exosome-miRNAs are emerging as essential regulators in the progression of diabetes, principally for pancreatic β-cell injury and insulin resistance. Here, we have clustered the recent findings concerning exosome-miRNAs associated with β-cell dysfunction to provide a novel approach for the early diagnosis and therapy of diabetes.

Use of herbal medicine for diabetes mellitus in adults from the central-western region of Mexico

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the prevalence of herbal medicine (HM) use and factors influencing HM usage including the identification of the main plants consumed by patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in central-western Mexico.

DESIGN

A total of 1862 patients with diabetes were surveyed in public and private hospitals in four states (Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan, and San Luis Potosi) of the central-western region of Mexico. The chi-square test was used to assess associations between HM use and demographic characteristics, such as glucose levels, presence of complications and comorbidities, as well as the selected therapy to treat T2DM.

RESULTS

The prevalence of HM use (59.2%) in patients with T2DM was mainly associated with education level (p = 0.001), time of diagnosis of T2DM (p = 0.004), presence of complications (p < 0.001) and comorbidities (p = 0.018) and the use of insulin (p < 0.001). These patients report a higher consumption of herbal medicine compared to those on glycemic control (p < 0.001). The most frequently used medicinal plants to treat T2DM were nopal (54.9%), moringa (26.7%), and aloe (22.1%).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of HM use to treat T2DM in west-central Mexico is high (59.2%) and its consumption is mostly carried out without the recommendation of a health professional (91.9%). The use of HM increases mainly when the patient uses insulin, during complications of the disease or in patients with an inadequate glycemic control.

A Competing Risk-based Prognostic Model to Predict Cancer-specific Death of Patients with Spinal and Pelvic Chondrosarcoma

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a competing-risk-based prognostic model and a nomogram for predicting the three- and five-year probability of cancer-specific death (CSD) in patients with spinal and pelvic chondrosarcoma.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The issue of competing risk has rarely been addressed and discussed in survival analysis of bone sarcoma. In addition, the Fine and Gray model, a more accurate method for survival analysis in the context of competing risk, has also been less reported in prognostic study of chondrosarcoma.

METHODS

A total of 623 patients with spinal or pelvic chondrosarcoma were identified from the SEER database and were divided into a training and a validation cohort. These two cohorts were used to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict the 3- and 5-year probability of CSD, considering non-CSD as competing risk. The C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis were used to assess the predictive performance and clinical utility of the model.

RESULTS

Older age (subdistribution hazards ratio [SHR]: 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01∼1.03; P = 0.013), high grade (SHR: 2.68, 95% CI: 1.80∼3.99; P < 0.001), regional involvement (SHR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.06∼2.58; P = 0.026), distant metastasis (SHR: 5.18, 95% CI: 3.11∼8.62; P < 0.001) and radical resection (SHR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.24∼0.60; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with the incidence of CSD. These factors were used to build a competing-risk-based model and a nomogram to predict CSD. The C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram performs well in predicting CSD and is suitable for clinical use.

CONCLUSION

A competing-risk based prognostic model is developed to predict the probability of CSD of patients with spinal and pelvic chondrosarcoma. This nomogram performs well and is suitable for clinical use.Level of Evidence: 4.