Shifts in flowering phenology reshape a subalpine plant community

The fitness effects of outcrossing distance depend on parental flowering phenology in fragmented populations of a tallgrass prairie forb

The phenomena of isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-time shapecontra mating patterns and population genetic processes, such as inbreeding and outbreeding depression, which influence progeny fitness. However, the effects of parental isolation in time on offspring fitness remain understudied, especially in combination with isolation-by-distance. We planted offspring from a common garden experiment involving 13 populations of the tallgrass prairie forb Echinacea angustifolia into a prairie restoration and tracked their fitness over 16 yr. Parental source populations were up to 9 km apart, and flowering asynchronies spanned up to 13 d. Using Aster life-history analysis, we assessed how interparent distance and asynchrony affected offspring fitness. Interparent asynchrony modified the relationship between interparent distance and offspring fitness. Offspring with the highest fitness had parents from the most distant populations, with maternal plants flowering later than paternal plants. Notably, the order of parental flowering, rather than the absolute difference in timing, better predicted fitness. Nongenetic aspects of reproductive timing, such as morphological constraints, may have contributed to these effects. We suggest management strategies to promote outcrossing over space and time, including leveraging seed production environments.

Extended Gap Between Snowmelt and Greenup Increases Dust Storm Occurrence

Impacts of climate change on spring phenology and snowmelt timing are well-documented across the Northern Hemisphere. However, the critical period between the snowmelt end date (SED) and the start of the growing season (SOS)-the SED-SOS gap-and its consequences have been largely overlooked. Here, we use satellite-derived and ground-based SED and SOS data from 2001 to 2019 to investigate temporal trends in the SED-SOS gap and the potential impacts across the Northern Hemisphere. We find that SED-SOS gap has extended at an average rate of -0.10 days yr-1, with approximately 50% of the regions exhibit an extending trend. In high-latitude and high-altitude regions, the SED-SOS gap tends to narrow due to delayed SED or a faster advancement of SOS than that of SED, while mid-latitude regions show extending gaps due to faster SED advancement or delayed SOS. A case study in Inner Mongolia reveals that an extended SED-SOS gap significantly increases dust storm occurrence by enhancing soil exposure to wind erosion, posing potential threats to ecosystems and human health. As SED and SOS dynamics become increasingly complex under future climate change, our findings emphasize the importance of monitoring the SED-SOS gap and understanding its dynamics to inform climate adaptation strategies and protect ecological and societal well-being.

Do mule deer surf peaks in forage quality while on summer range?

Many animals track ephemeral peaks in food abundance and quality that propagate across landscapes. Migrating ungulates, in particular, track waves of newly emerging plants from low-elevation winter ranges to high-elevation summer ranges-known as "green-wave surfing." Because plants lose crude protein and gain insoluble fiber with maturation, ruminants are expected to exploit peaks in forage quality among individual plants (i.e., Forage Maturation Hypothesis). Although ample evidence supports the long-standing hypothesis that migratory ungulates surf peaks in forage quality during migration, the hypothesis that ungulates track peaks in forage quality at a small scale (i.e., microsurf while on summer range) remains less known. We studied a partially migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Wyoming, USA, to understand whether temperate ungulates optimize the use of high-quality forage as plants grow and senesce on disparate summer ranges. Specifically, we evaluated how crude protein, digestible energy, and relative abundance changed throughout the growing season and whether deer altered their diet to reflect species-specific changes in plant phenology. In support of the Forage Maturation Hypothesis, forage quality declined as large-scale patterns of phenology progressed away from a remotely sensed metric of peak green-up for most plant species on the summer ranges of deer that migrated short (<50 km), medium (50-130 km), and long distances (>130 km). Declining rates in forage quality among plant species were heterogeneous, providing deer with the phenological diversity required to microsurf. Deer changed their diet throughout the growing season and prioritized the consumption of some plants, including Rosa woodsii and Purshia tridentata, as the rank of forage quality increased (p < 0.01). In light of the complexities common to studies on foraging behavior, our findings suggest that deer may have some potential to microsurf on summer range when heterogeneity in resource phenology is prevalent. Moreover, our findings validate the accuracy of remote sensing in quantifying peak forage quality for plants within sagebrush shrublands and montane habitats.

Phenological Shifts Since 1830 in 29 Native Plant Species of California and Their Responses to Historical Climate Change

Climate change is affecting Mediterranean climate regions, such as California. Retrospective phenological studies are a useful tool to track biological response to these impacts through the use of herbarium-preserved specimens. We used data from more than 12,000 herbarium specimens of 29 dominant native plant species that are characteristic of 12 broadly distributed vegetation types to investigate phenological patterns in response to climate change. We analyzed the trends of four phenophases: preflowering (FBF), flowering (F), fruiting (FS) and growth (DVG), over time (from 1830 to 2023) and through changes in climate variables (from 1896 to 2023). We also examined these trends within California's 10 ecoregions. Among the four phenophases, the strongest response was found in the timing of flowering, which showed an advance in 28 species. Furthermore, 21 species showed sequencing in the advance of two or more phenophases. We highlight the advances found over temperature variables: 10 in FBF, 28 in F, 17 in FS and 18 in DVG. Diverse and less-consistent results were found for water-related variables with 15 species advancing and 11 delaying various phenophases in response to decreasing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration. Jepson ecoregions displayed a more pronounced advance in F related to time and mean annual temperature in the three of the southern regions compared to the northern ones. This study underscores the role of temperature in driving phenological change, demonstrating how rising temperatures have predominantly advanced phenophase timing. These findings highlight potential threats, including risks of climatic, ecological, and biological imbalances.

Intraspecific body size variation across distributional moments reveals trait filtering processes

Natural populations are composed of individuals that vary in their morphological traits, timing and interactions. The distribution of a trait can be described by several dimensions, or mathematical moments-mean, variance, skew and kurtosis. Shifts in the distribution of a trait across these moments in response to environmental variation can help to reveal which trait values are gained or lost, and consequently how trait filtering processes are altering populations. To examine the role and drivers of intraspecific variation within a trait filtering framework, we investigate variation in body size among five wild bumblebee species in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. First, we examine the relationships between environmental factors (climate and floral food resources) and body size distributions across bumblebee social castes to identify demographic responses to environmental variation. Next, we examine changes in the moments of trait distributions to reveal potential mechanisms behind intraspecific shifts in body size. Finally, we examine how intraspecific body size variation is related to diet breadth and phenology. We found that climate conditions have a strong effect on observed body size variation across all distributional moments, but the filtering mechanism varies by social caste. For example, with earlier spring snowmelt queens declined in mean size and became negatively skewed and more kurtotic. This suggests a skewed filter admitting a greater frequency of small individuals. With greater availability of floral food resources, queens increased in mean size, but workers and males decreased in size. Observed shifts in body size variation also correspond with variation in diet breadth and phenology. Populations with larger average body size were associated with more generalized foraging in workers of short-tongued species and increased specialization in longer-tongued workers. Altered phenological timing was associated with species- and caste-specific shifts in skew. Across an assemblage of wild bumblebees, we find complex patterns of trait variation that may not have been captured if we had simply considered mean and variance. The four-moment approach we employ here provides holistic insight into intraspecific trait variation, which may otherwise be overlooked and reveals potential underlying filtering processes driving such variation within populations.

Latitudinal clines in the phenology of floral display associated with adaptive evolution during a biological invasion

PREMISE

Flowering phenology strongly influences reproductive success in plants. Days to first flower is easy to quantify and widely used to characterize phenology, but reproductive fitness depends on the full schedule of flower production over time. We investigated flowering schedules in relation to the onset and duration of flowering and tested for latitudinal clines in schedule shape associated with rapid evolution and range expansion of an invasive plant.

METHODS

We examined floral display traits among 13 populations of Lythrum salicaria, sampled along a 10-degree latitudinal gradient in eastern North America. We grew these collections in a common garden field experiment at a mid-latitude site and quantified variation in flowering schedule shape using principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and quantitative metrics analogous to central moments of probability distributions (i.e., mean, variance, skew, and kurtosis).

RESULTS

Consistent with earlier evidence for adaptation to shorter growing seasons, we found that populations from higher latitudes had earlier start and mean flowering day, on average, when compared to populations from southern latitudes. Flowering skew increased with latitude, whereas kurtosis decreased, consistent with a bet-hedging strategy in biotic environments with more herbivores and greater competition for pollinators.

CONCLUSIONS

Heritable clines in flowering schedules are consistent with adaptive evolution in response to a predicted shift toward weaker biotic interactions and less variable but more stressful abiotic environments at higher latitudes, potentially contributing to rapid evolution and range expansion of this invasive species.

Global change aggravates drought, with consequences for plant reproduction

BACKGROUND

The frequency and intensity of droughts are expected to increase under global change, driven by anthropogenic climate change and water diversion. Precipitation is expected to become more episodic under climate change, with longer and warmer dry spells, although some areas might become wetter. Diversion of freshwater from lakes and rivers and groundwater pumping for irrigation of agricultural fields are lowering water availability to wild plant populations, increasing the frequency and intensity of drought. Given the importance of seasonal changes and extremes in soil moisture to influence plant reproduction, and because the majority of plants are flowering plants and most of them depend on pollinators for seed production, this review focuses on the consequences of drought on different aspects of reproduction in animal-pollinated angiosperms, emphasizing interactions among drought, flowering and pollination.

SCOPE

Visual and olfactory traits play crucial roles in attracting pollinators. Drought-induced floral changes can influence pollinator attraction and visitation, together with pollinator networks and flowering phenology, with subsequent effects on plant reproduction. Here, we review how drought influences these different aspects of plant reproduction. We identify knowledge gaps and highlight areas that would benefit from additional research.

CONCLUSIONS

Visual and olfactory traits are affected by drought, but their phenotypic responses can vary with floral sex, plant sex, population and species. Ample phenotypic plasticity to drought exists for these traits, providing an ability for a rapid response to a change in drought frequency and intensity engendered by global change. The impact of these drought-induced changes in floral traits on pollinator attraction, pollen deposition and plant reproductive success does not show a clear pattern. Drought affects the structure of plant-pollinator networks and can modify plant phenology. The impact of drought on plant reproduction is not always negative, and we need to identify plant characteristics associated with these more positive responses.

Better soon than never: climate change induces strong phenological reassembly in the flowering of a Mediterranean shrub community

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Flowering is a key process in the life cycle of a plant. Climate change is shifting flowering phenologies in the Northern Hemisphere, but studies with long data series at the community level are scarce, especially those considering the consequences of phenological changes for emerging ecological interactions. In the Mediterranean region, the effects of climate change are stronger than the global average and there is an urgent need to understand how biodiversity will be affected in this area.

METHODS

In this study, we investigated how the entire flowering phenology of a community comprising 51 perennial species from the south of the Iberian Peninsula changed from the decade of the 1980s to the 2020s. Furthermore, we have analysed the consequences of these changes for flowering order and co-flowering patterns.

KEY RESULTS

We have found that the flowering phenology of the community has advanced by ~20 days, which is coherent with the increasing temperatures related to climate change. Individual species have generally advanced their entire flowering phenology (start and end) and increased their flowering duration. The early flowering has resulted in a re-organization of the flowering order of the community and generated new co-flowering assemblages of species, with a slight trend towards an increase of shared flowering time among species.

CONCLUSIONS

The advanced flowering phenology and changes in flowering duration reported here were of unprecedented magnitude, showcasing the extreme effects of climate change on Mediterranean ecosystems. Furthermore, the effects were not similar among species, which could be attributed to differences in sensitivities of environmental cues for flowering. One consequence of these changes in flowering times is ecological mismatches, indicated by changes in the flowering order and co-flowering between decades. This new scenario might lead to new competitive or facilitative interactions and to the loss or gain of pollinators.

Effects of experimental warming on floral scent, display and rewards in two subalpine herbs

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Floral volatiles, visual traits and rewards mediate attraction and defence in plant-pollinator and plant-herbivore interactions, but these floral traits might be altered by global warming through direct effects of temperature or longer-term impacts on plant resources. We examined the effect of warming on floral and leaf volatile emissions, floral morphology, plant height, nectar production, and oviposition by seed predators.

METHODS

We used open-top chambers that warmed plants in the field by +2-3 °C on average (+6-11 °C increase in daily maxima) for 2-4 weeks across 1-3 years at three sites in Colorado, USA. Volatiles were sampled from two closely related species of subalpine Ipomopsis with different pollinators: Ipomopsis aggregata ssp. aggregata, visited mainly by hummingbirds, and Ipomopsis tenuituba ssp. tenuituba, often visited by hawkmoths.

KEY RESULTS

Although warming had no detected effects on leaf volatiles, the daytime floral volatiles of both I. aggregata and I. tenuituba responded in subtle ways to warming, with impacts that depended on the species, site and year. In addition to the long-term effect of warming, temperature at the time of sampling independently affected the floral volatile emissions of I. aggregata during the day and I. tenuituba at night. Warming had little effect on floral morphology for either species and it had no effect on nectar concentration, maximum inflorescence height or flower redness in I. aggregata. However, warming increased nectar production in I. aggregata by 41 %, a response that would attract more hummingbird visits, and it reduced oviposition by fly seed predators by ≥72 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that floral traits can show different levels of plasticity to temperature changes in subalpine environments, with potential effects on animal behaviours that help or hinder plant reproduction. They also illustrate the need for more long-term field warming studies, as shown by responses of floral volatiles in different ways to weeks of warming vs. temperature at the time of sampling.

Seasonal and vertical patterns of water availability and variability determine plant reproductive phenology

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Changing precipitation regimes can influence terrestrial plants and ecosystems. However, plant phenological responses to changing temporal patterns of precipitation and the underlying mechanisms are largely unclear. This study was conducted to explore the effects of seasonal precipitation redistribution on plant reproductive phenology in a temperate steppe.

METHODS

A field experiment was undertaken with control (C), advanced (AP) and delayed (DP) growing-season precipitation peaks and the combination of AP and DP (ADP). Seven dominant plant species were selected and divided into two functional groups (early- vs. middle-flowering species, shallow- vs. deep-rooted species) to monitor reproductive phenology, including budding, flowering and fruiting dates and the reproductive duration for four growing seasons, 2015-2017 and 2022.

KEY RESULTS

The AP, but not DP treatment advanced the phenological (i.e. budding, flowering and fruiting) dates and lengthened the reproductive duration across the four growing seasons and seven monitored species. In addition, the phenological responses showed divergent patterns among different plant functional groups, which could be attributed to shifts in soil moisture and its variability in different months and soil depths. Moreover, species with lengthened reproductive duration increased phenological overlap with other species, which could have a negative impact on their dominance under the AP treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reveal that changing precipitation seasonality could have considerable impacts on plant phenology by affecting soil water availability and variability. Incorporating these two factors simultaneously in the phenology models will help us to understand the response of plant phenology under intensified changing precipitation scenarios. In addition, the observations of decreased dominance for the species with lengthened reproductive duration suggest that changing reproductive phenology can have a potential to affect community composition in grasslands under global change.

Untangling the Complexity of Climate Change Effects on Plant Reproductive Traits and Pollinators: A Systematic Global Synthesis

Climate change is expected to affect the morphological, physiological, and life-history traits of plants and animal pollinators due to more frequent extreme heat and other altered weather patterns. This systematic literature review evaluates the effects of climate change on plant and pollinator traits on a global scale to determine how species responses vary among Earth's ecosystems, climate variables, taxonomic groups, and organismal traits. We compiled studies conducted under natural or experimental conditions (excluding agricultural species) and analyzed species response patterns for each trait (advance vs. delay or no change for phenology, decrease vs. increase or no change for other traits). Climate change has advanced plant and animal phenologies across most Earth's biomes, but evidence for temporal plant-pollinator mismatches remains limited. Flower production and plant reproductive success showed diverse responses to warming and low water availability in Alpine and Temperate ecosystems, and a trend for increased or neutral responses in Arctic and Tropical biomes. Nectar rewards mainly experienced negative effects under warming and drought across Alpine and Temperate biomes, but scent emissions increased or changed in composition. Life form (woody vs. nonwoody species) did not significantly influence trait response patterns to climate change. Pollinator fecundity, size, life-history, developmental, and physiological traits mostly declined with warming across biomes; however, animal abundance and resource acquisition traits showed diverse responses. This review identified critical knowledge gaps that limit our understanding of the impacts of climate change, particularly in tropical/subtropical biomes and southern latitudes. It also highlights the urgent need to sample across a greater range of plant families and pollinator taxa (e.g., beetles, wasps, vertebrates). The diversity of climate change effects should be assessed in the context of other anthropogenic drivers of global change that threaten critically important pollination interactions.

Changes in flowering phenology with altered rainfall and the potential community impacts in an annual grassland

PREMISE

Shifts in the timing of life history events, or phenology, have been recorded across many taxa and biomes in response to global change. These phenological changes are often studied in a single species context, but considering the community context is essential for anticipating the cascading effects on biotic interactions that are likely to occur. Focusing on an annual grassland plant community, we examined how experimental changes in precipitation affect flowering phenology in a community context and explore the implications of these shifts for competitive interactions and species coexistence.

METHODS

We experimentally manipulated rainfall with rainout shelters and recorded detailed flowering phenology data for seven annual species including two grasses and five forbs. We assessed how their first and peak flowering days were affected by changes in rainfall and explored how flowering overlap between competing species changed.

RESULTS

Changes in rainfall shifted flowering phenology of some species, but sensitivity differed among neighboring species. Four of the seven species studied started and/or peaked flowering earlier in response to reduced water availability. The idiosyncratic shifts in flowering phenology have the potential to alter existing temporal dynamics that may be maintaining coexistence, such as temporal separation of resource-use among neighbors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show how species-specific phenological consequences of global change can impact community dynamics and competition between neighboring plants and warrant future research.

Warm Spring Days are Related to Shorter Durations of Reproductive Phenophases for Understory Forest Herbs

As plants continue to respond to global warming with phenological shifts, our understanding of the importance of short-lived heat events and seasonal weather cues has lagged relative to our understanding of plant responses to broad shifts in mean climate conditions. Here, we explore the importance of warmer-than-average days in driving shifts in phenophase duration for spring-flowering woodland herbs across one growing season. We harnessed the combined power of community science and public gardens, engaging more than 30 volunteers to monitor shifts in phenology (documenting movement from one phenophase to the next) for 198 individual plants of 14 species twice per week for the 2023 growing season (March-October) across five botanic gardens in the midwestern and southeastern US. Gardens included the Holden Arboretum, Kirtland, OH; Dawes Arboretum, Newark, OH; Chicago Botanic Garden, Glencoe, IL; Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis, MO; and Huntsville Botanical Garden, Huntsville, AL. We tested: (1) that higher-than-average daily temperatures (deviation from 30-year historical mean daily temperatures for each location) would be related to truncated phenophase durations; and (2) that phenophase durations would vary among species. Our findings support both hypotheses. We documented significant inverse relationships between positive deviations in daily temperature from historic means (e.g., warmer-than-average days) and durations of three reproductive phenophases: "First Bud," "First Ripe Fruit," and "Early Fruiting." Similar (non-significant) trends were noted for several other early-season phenophases. Additionally, significant differences in mean phenophase durations were detected among the different species, although these differences were inconsistent across plant parts (vegetative, flowering, and fruiting). Results underscore the potential sensitivity of understory herb reproductive phenophases to warmer-than-average daily temperatures early in the growing season, contributing to our understanding of phenological responses to short-term heat events and seasonal weather cues.

Bee Phenological Distributions Predicted by Inferring Vital Rates

AbstractHow bees shift the timing of their seasonal activity (phenology) to track favorable conditions influences the degree to which bee foraging and flowering plant reproduction overlap. While bee phenology is known to shift due to interannual climatic variation and experimental temperature manipulation, the underlying causes of these shifts are poorly understood. Most studies of bee phenology have been phenomenological and have only examined shifts of point estimates, such as first appearance or peak timing. Such cross-sectional measures are convenient for analysis, but foraging activity is distributed across time, and pollination interactions are better described by overlap in phenological abundance curves. Here, we make simultaneous inferences about interannual shifts in bee phenology, emergence and senescence rates, population size, and the effect of floral abundance on observed bee abundance. We do this with a model of transition rates between life stages implemented in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and parameterized with fine-scale abundance time series of the sweat bee Halictus rubicundus at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado. We find that H. rubicundus's emergence cueing was highly sensitive to the timing of snowmelt but that emergence rate, senescence rate, and population size did not differ greatly across years. The present approach can be used to glean information about vital rates from other datasets on bee and flower phenology, improving our understanding of pollination interactions.

Climate change impacts flowering phenology in Gongga Mountains, Southwest China

Flowering phenology of plants, which is important for reproductive growth, has been shown to be influenced by climate change. Understanding how flowering phenology responds to climate change and exploring the variation of this response across plant groups can help predict structural and functional changes in plant communities in response to ongoing climate change. Here, we used long-term collections of 33 flowering plant species from the Gongga Mountains (Mt. Gongga hereafter), a biodiversity hotspot, to investigate how plant flowering phenology changed over the past 70 years in response to climate change. We found that mean flowering times in Mt. Gongga were delayed in all vegetation types and elevations over the last 70 years. Furthermore, flowering time was delayed more in lowlands than at high elevations. Interestingly, we observed that spring-flowering plants show earlier flowering times whereas summer/autumn plants show delayed flowering times. Non-synchronous flowering phenology across species was mainly driven by changes in temperature and precipitation. We also found that the flowering phenology of 78.8% plant species was delayed in response to warming temperatures. Our findings also indicate that the magnitude and direction of variation in plant flowering times vary significantly among species along elevation gradients. Shifts in flowering time might cause trophic mismatches with co-occurring and related species, affecting both forest ecosystem structure and function.

Warming reduces mid-summer flowering plant reproductive success through advancing fruiting phenology in an alpine meadow

Changes in reproductive phenology induced by warming are happening across the globe, with significant implications for plant sexual reproduction. However, the changes in plant reproductive output (number of flowers and fruits) and success (successful fruits/total flowers) in response to climate change have not been well characterized. Here, we conducted a warming and altered precipitation experiment in an alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau to investigate the effects of climate change on the reproductive phenology and success of six common species belonging to two flowering functional groups. We found that warming advanced the start of flowering and the start of fruiting in mid-summerflowering plants. Warming reduced the reproductive output of early-spring flowering plants but did not change their reproductive success. The effects of warming and altered precipitation on the reproductive output and success of mid-summer flowering plants were year-dependent, and the fruiting phenology regulated the response of the mid-summer flowering plant's reproductive success to climate change. These findings highlight the critical role of fruiting phenology in the reproductive success of alpine plants and imply that alpine plants may reduce their fitness by producing fewer flowers and fruits under climate warming, especially for later flowering plants.

Pattern and Process in a Rapidly Changing World: Ideas and Approaches

AbstractScience is as dynamic as the world around us. Our ideas continually change, as do the approaches we use to study science. Few things remain invariant in this changing landscape, but a fascination with pattern and process is one that has endured throughout the history of science. Paying homage to this long-held tradition, the 2023 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists focused on the role of pattern and process in ecology and evolution. It brought together a group of early-career researchers working on topics ranging from genetic diversity in microbes to changing patterns of species interactions in the geological record. Their work spanned the taxonomic spectrum from microbes to mammals, the temporal dimension from the Cenozoic to the present, and approaches ranging from manipulative experiments to comparative approaches. In this introductory article, I discuss how these diverse topics are linked by the common thread of elucidating processes underlying patterns and how they collectively generate novel insights into diversity maintenance at different levels of organization.

Geographic conditions impact the relationship between plant phenology and phylogeny

Plant phenology is influenced by a combined effect of phylogeny and climate, although it is yet unclear how these two variables work together to change phenology. We synthesized 107 previously published studies to examine whether phenological changes were impacted by both phylogeny and climate changes in various geographical settings globally. Phenological observation data from 52,463 plant species at 71 sites worldwide revealed that 90 % of phenological records showed phylogenetic conservation. i.e., closely related species exhibited similar phenology. To explore the significant and non-significant phylogenetic conservation between plant phenophases, our dataset comprises 5,47,000 observation records from the four main phenophases (leaf bud, leaf, flower, and fruit). Three-dimensional geographical distribution (altitude, latitude, and longitude) data analysis revealed that plant phenology may exhibit phylogenetic signals at finer special scales (optimal environmental conditions) that vanish in high altitude and latitude regions. Additionally, climatic sensitivity analysis suggested that phylogenetic signals were associated with plant phenophases and were stronger in the regions of ideal temperature (7-18 °C) and photoperiod (10-14 h) and weaker in harsh climatic conditions. These results show that phylogenetic conservation in plant phenological traits is frequently influenced by the interaction of harsh climatic conditions and geographical ranges. This meta-analysis enhances our knowledge of predicting species responses over geographic gradients under varied climatic conditions.

Climate change increases flowering duration, driving phenological reassembly and elevated co-flowering richness

Changes to flowering phenology are a key response of plants to climate change. However, we know little about how these changes alter temporal patterns of reproductive overlap (i.e. phenological reassembly). We combined long-term field (1937-2012) and herbarium records (1850-2017) of 68 species in a flowering plant community in central North America and used a novel application of Bayesian quantile regression to estimate changes to flowering season length, altered richness and composition of co-flowering assemblages, and whether phenological shifts exhibit seasonal trends. Across the past century, phenological shifts increased species' flowering durations by 11.5 d on average, which resulted in 94% of species experiencing greater flowering overlap at the community level. Increases to co-flowering were particularly pronounced in autumn, driven by a greater tendency of late season species to shift the ending of flowering later and to increase flowering duration. Our results demonstrate that species-level phenological shifts can result in considerable phenological reassembly and highlight changes to flowering duration as a prominent, yet underappreciated, effect of climate change. The emergence of an autumn co-flowering mode emphasizes that these effects may be season-dependent.

Allee effects introduced by density dependent phenology

We consider a hybrid model of an annual species with the timing of a stage transition governed by density dependent phenology. We show that the model can produce a strong Allee effect as well as overcompensation. The density dependent probability distribution that describes how population emergence is spread over time plays an important role in determining population dynamics. Our extensive numerical simulations with a density dependent gamma distribution indicate very rich population dynamics, from stable/unstable equilibria, limit cycles, to chaos.

Alpine grassland community productivity and diversity differences influence significantly plant sexual reproduction strategies

Whether and how community structure variation affects plant sexual reproduction is crucial for understanding species' local adaptation and plant community assembly, but remains unrevealed. In Qinghai-Tibetan grassland communities that differed in aboveground biomass (AGB) and species diversity, we found significant influence of AGB on both species' reproductive biomass allocation (RBA) and flowering and fruiting time, but of species diversity only on species' reproductive time. In high-AGB or high-diversity communities, smaller and earlier flowering species generally advanced their reproductive phenology and increased their reproductive allocation for maximizing their reproductive success, whereas larger and later flowering species delayed their reproductive phenology and decreased their reproductive allocation for maximizing their vegetative growth and resource competition. This change in reproductive allocation with the variation in community structures was more pronounced in nonclonal as compared to clonal plant species. Thus, we evidence an important influence of community structure on plant sexual reproduction strategies, and the pattern of the influence depends largely on species biological attributes.

Time is of the essence: A general framework for uncovering temporal structures of communities

Ecological communities are inherently dynamic: species constantly turn over within years, months, weeks or even days. These temporal shifts in community composition determine essential aspects of species interactions and how energy, nutrients, information, diseases and perturbations 'flow' through systems. Yet, our understanding of community structure has relied heavily on static analyses not designed to capture critical features of this dynamic temporal dimension of communities. Here, we propose a conceptual and methodological framework for quantifying and analysing this temporal dimension. Conceptually, we split the temporal structure into two definitive features, sequence and duration, and review how they are linked to key concepts in ecology. We then outline how we can capture these definitive features using perspectives and tools from temporal graph theory. We demonstrate how we can easily integrate ongoing research on phenology into this framework and highlight what new opportunities arise from this approach to answer fundamental questions in community ecology. As climate change reshuffles ecological communities worldwide, quantifying the temporal organization of communities is imperative to resolve the fundamental processes that shape natural ecosystems and predict how these systems may change in the future.

The mid-domain effect in flowering phenology

The timing of flowering is an important driver of species distribution and community assembly patterns. However, we still have much to learn about the factors that shape flowering diversity (i.e., number of species flowering per period) in plant communities. One potential explanation of flowering diversity is the mid-domain effect, which states that geometric constraints on species ranges within a bounded domain (space or time) will yield a mid-domain peak in diversity regardless of ecological factors. Here, we determine whether the mid-domain effect explains peak flowering time (i.e., when most species of communities are flowering) across China. We used phenological data of 16,267 herbaceous and woody species from the provincial Flora in China and species distribution data from the Chinese Vascular Plant Distribution Database to determine relationships between the observed number of species flowering and the number of species flowering as predicted by the mid-domain effect model, as well as between three climatic variables (mean minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and mean monthly sunshine duration). We found that the mid-domain effect explained a significant proportion of the temporal variation in flowering diversity across all species in China. Further, the mid-domain effect explained a greater proportion of variance in flowering diversity at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. The patterns of flowering diversity for both herbaceous and woody species were related to both the mid-domain effect and environmental variables. Our findings indicate that including geometric constraints in conjunction with abiotic and biotic predictors will improve predictions of flowering diversity patterns.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of ectotherms

Climate warming is predicted to increase mean temperatures and thermal extremes on a global scale. Because their body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, ectotherms bear the full brunt of climate warming. Predicting the impact of climate warming on ectotherm diversity and distributions requires a framework that can translate temperature effects on ectotherm life-history traits into population- and community-level outcomes. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that can predict the fundamental thermal niche and climate envelope of ectotherm species based on how temperature affects the underlying life-history traits. The advantage of this framework is twofold. First, it can translate temperature effects on the phenotypic traits of individual organisms to population-level patterns observed in nature. Second, it can predict thermal niches and climate envelopes based solely on trait response data and, hence, completely independently of any population-level information. We find that the temperature at which the intrinsic growth rate is maximized exceeds the temperature at which abundance is maximized under density-dependent growth. As a result, the temperature at which a species will increase the fastest when rare is lower than the temperature at which it will recover from a perturbation the fastest when abundant. We test model predictions using data from a naturalized-invasive interaction to identify the temperatures at which the invasive can most easily invade the naturalized's habitat and the naturalized is most likely to resist the invasive. The framework is sufficiently mechanistic to yield reliable predictions for individual species and sufficiently broad to apply across a range of ectothermic taxa. This ability to predict the thermal niche before a species encounters a new thermal environment is essential to mitigating some of the major effects of climate change on ectotherm populations around the globe.

Plant species phenology differs between climate and land-use scenarios and relates to plant functional traits

Phenological shifts due to changing climate are often highly species and context specific. Land-use practices such as mowing or grazing directly affect the phenology of grassland species, but it is unclear if plants are similarly affected by climate change in differently managed grassland systems such as meadows and pastures. Functional traits have a high potential to explain phenological shifts and might help to understand species-specific and land-use-specific phenological responses to changes in climate. In the large-scale field experiment Global Change Experimental Facility (GCEF), we monitored the first flowering day, last flowering day, flowering duration, and day of peak flowering, of 17 herbaceous grassland species under ambient and future climate conditions, comparing meadows and pastures. Both climate and land use impacted the flowering phenology of plant species in species-specific ways. We did not find evidence for interacting effects of climate and land-use type on plant phenology. However, the data indicate that microclimatic and microsite conditions on meadows and pastures were differently affected by future climate, making differential effects on meadows and pastures likely. Functional traits, including the phenological niche and grassland utilization indicator values, explained species-specific phenological climate responses. Late flowering species and species with a low mowing tolerance advanced their flowering more strongly under future climate. Long flowering species and species following an acquisitive strategy (high specific leaf area, high mowing tolerance, and high forage value) advanced their flowering end more strongly and thus more strongly shortened their flowering under future climate. We associated these trait-response relationships primarily with a phenological drought escape during summer. Our results provide novel insights on how climate and land use impact the flowering phenology of grassland species and we highlight the role of functional traits in mediating phenological responses to climate.

Later-melting rather than thickening of snowpack enhance the productivity and alter the community composition of temperate grassland

Snowpack is closely related to vegetation green-up in water-limited ecosystems, and has effects on growing-season ecosystem processes. However, we know little about how changes in snowpack depth and melting timing affect primary productivity and plant community structure during the growing season. Here, we conducted a four-year snow manipulation experiment exploring how snow addition, snowmelt delay and their combination affect aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species diversity, community composition and plant reproductive phenology in seasonally snow-covered temperate grassland in northern China. Snow addition alone increased soil moisture and nutrient availability during early spring, while did not change plant community structure and ANPP. Instead, snowmelt delay alone postponed plant reproductive phenology, and increased ANPP, decreased species diversity and altered species composition. Grasses are more sensitive to changes in snowmelt timing than forbs, and early-flowering forbs showed a higher sensitivity compared to late-flowering forbs. The effect of snowmelt delay on ANPP and species diversity was offset by snow addition, probably because the added snow unnecessarily lengthens the snow-covering duration. The disparate effects of changes in snowpack depth and snowmelt timing necessitate their discrimination for more mechanistic understanding on the effects of snowpack changes on ecosystems. Our study suggests that it is essential to incorporate non-growing-season climate change events (in particular, snowfall and snowpack changes) to comprehensively disclose the effects of climate change on community structure and ecosystem functions.

Phylogenetic conservation in plant phenological traits varies between temperate and subtropical climates in China

Phenological traits, such as leaf and flowering dates, are proven to be phylogenetically conserved. The relationship between phylogenetic conservation, plant phenology, and climatic factors remains unknown. Here, we assessed phenological features among flowering plants as evidence for phylogenetic conservatism, the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes. We use spring phenological traits data from 1968-2018 of 65 trees and 49 shrubs in Xi'an (temperate climate) and Guiyang (subtropical climate) to understand plant phenological traits' relationship with phylogeny. Molecular datasets are employed in evolutionary models to test the phylogenetic conservatism in spring phenological characteristics in response to climate-sensitive phenological features. Significant phylogenetic conservation was found in the Xi'an plant's phenological traits, while there was a non-significant conservation in the Guiyang plant species. Phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS) models correlate with phenological features significantly in Xi'an while non-significantly in Guiyang. Based on the findings of molecular dating, it was suggested that the Guiyang species split off from their relatives around 46.0 mya during the middle Eocene of the Tertiary Cenozoic Era, while Xi'an species showed a long evolutionary history and diverged from their relatives around 95 mya during the late Cretaceous Mesozoic Era. First leaf dates (FLD) indicative of spring phenology, show that Xi'an adjourned the case later than Guiyang. Unlike FLD, first flower dates (FFD) yield different results as Guiyang flowers appear later than Xi'an's. Our research revealed that various factors, including phylogeny, growth form, and functional features, influenced the diversity of flowering phenology within species in conjunction with local climate circumstances. These results are conducive to understanding evolutionary conservation mechanisms in plant phenology concerning evolutionary processes in different geographical and climate zones.

Phenological evolution in annual plants under light competition, changes in the growth season and mass loss

Flowering time is an important phenological trait in plants and a critical determinant of the success of pollination and fruit or seed development, with immense significance for agriculture as it directly affects crop yield and overall food production. Shifts in the growth season, changes in the growth season duration and changes in the production rate are environmental processes (potentially linked to climate change) that can lead to changes in flowering time in the long-term due to selection. In contrast, biomass loss (due to, for example, herbivory or diseases) can have profound consequences for plant mass production and food security. We model the effects of these environmental processes on the flowering time evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) of annual plants and the potential consequences for reproductive output. Our model recapitulates previous theoretical results linked to climate change and light competition and makes novel predictions about the effects of biomass loss on the evolution of flowering time. Our analysis elucidates how both the magnitude and direction of the evolutionary response can depend on whether biomass loss occurs during the earlier vegetative phase or during the later reproductive phase and on whether or not plants are adapted to grow in dense, competitive environments. Specifically, light competition generates an asymetric effect of mass loss on flowering time even when loss is indiscriminate (equal rates), with vegetative mass loss having a stronger effect on flowering time (resulting in greater ESS change) and final reproductive output.

The reduced growth due to elevated CO2 concentration hinders the sexual reproduction of mature Northern pipevine (Aristolochia contorta Bunge)

The phenology has gained considerably more attention in recent times of climate change. The transition from vegetative to reproductive phases is a critical process in the life history of plants, closely tied to phenology. In an era of climate change, understanding how environmental factors affect this transition is of paramount importance. This study consisted of field surveys and a greenhouse experiment on the reproductive biology of Northern pipevine (Aristolochia contorta Bunge). During field surveys, we investigated the environmental factors and growth characteristics of mature A. contorta, with a focus on both its vegetative and reproductive phases. In its successful flowering during the reproductive phase, A. contorta grew under the conditions of 40% relative light intensity and 24% soil moisture content, and had a vertical rhizome. In the greenhouse experiments, we examined the impact of increased CO2 concentration on the growth and development of 10-year-old A. contorta, considering the effect of rhizome direction. Planted with a vertical rhizome direction, A. contorta exhibited sufficient growth for flowering under ambient CO2 concentrations. In contrast, when planted with a horizontal rhizome direction, it was noted to significantly impede successful growth and flowering under elevated CO2 concentrations. This hindered the process of flowering, highlighting the pivotal role of substantial vegetative growth in achieving successful flowering. Furthermore, we observed a higher number of underground buds and shoots under the conditions of elevated CO2 concentration and a horizontal rhizome direction instead of flowering. Elevated CO2 concentrations also exhibited diverse effects on mature A. contorta's flower traits, resulting in smaller flower size, shorter longevity, and reduced stigma receptivity, and pollen viability. The study shed light on elevated CO2 concentrations can hinder growth, potentially obstructing sexual reproduction and diminishing genetic diversity.

Tracking Phenological Changes over 183 Years in Endemic Species of a Mediterranean Mountain (Sierra Nevada, SE Spain) Using Herbarium Specimens

Phenological studies have a crucial role in the global change context. The Mediterranean basin constitutes a key study site since strong climate change impacts are expected, particularly in mountain areas such as Sierra Nevada, where we focus. Specifically, we delve into phenological changes in endemic vascular plants over time by analysing data at three scales: entire massif, altitudinal ranges, and particular species, seeking to contribute to stopping biodiversity loss. For this, we analysed 5262 samples of 2129 herbarium sheets from Sierra Nevada, dated from 1837 to 2019, including reproductive structure, complete collection date, and precise location. We found a generalized advancement in phenology at all scales, and particularly in flowering onset and flowering peak. Thus, plants flower on average 11 days earlier now than before the 1970s. Although similar trends have been confirmed for many territories and species, we address plants that have been studied little in the past regarding biotypes and distribution, and which are relevant for conservation. Thus, we analysed phenological changes in endemic plants, mostly threatened, from a crucial hotspot within the Mediterranean hotspot, which is particularly vulnerable to global warming. Our results highlight the urgency of phenological studies by species and of including ecological interactions and effects on their life cycles.

Forest understorey flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and illumination

Species are altering their phenology to track warming temperatures. In forests, understorey plants experience tree canopy shading resulting in light and temperature conditions, which strongly deviate from open habitats. Yet, little is known about understorey phenology responses to forest microclimates. We recorded flowering onset, peak, end and duration of 10 temperate forest understorey plant species in two mesocosm experiments to understand how phenology is affected by sub-canopy warming and how this response is modulated by illumination, which is related to canopy change. Furthermore, we investigated whether phenological sensitivities can be explained by species' characteristics, such as thermal niche. We found a mean advance of flowering onset of 7.1 d per 1°C warming, more than previously reported in studies not accounting for microclimatic buffering. Warm-adapted species exhibited greater advances. Temperature sensitivity did not differ between early- and later-flowering species. Experimental illumination did not significantly affect species' phenological temperature sensitivities, but slightly delayed flowering phenology independent from warming. Our study suggests that integrating sub-canopy temperature and light availability will help us better understand future understorey phenology responses. Climate warming together with intensifying canopy disturbances will continue to drive phenological shifts and potentially disrupt understorey communities, thereby affecting forest biodiversity and functioning.

Signatures of local adaptation to current and future climate in phenology-related genes in natural populations of Quercus robur

BACKGROUND

Local adaptation is a key evolutionary process that enhances the growth of plants in their native habitat compared to non-native habitats, resulting in patterns of adaptive genetic variation across the entire geographic range of the species. The study of population adaptation to local environments and predicting their response to future climate change is important because of climate change.

RESULTS

Here, we explored the genetic diversity of candidate genes associated with bud burst in pedunculate oak individuals sampled from 6 populations in Poland. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) diversity was assessed in 720 candidate genes using the sequence capture technique, yielding 18,799 SNPs. Using landscape genomic approaches, we identified 8 FST outliers and 781 unique SNPs in 389 genes associated with geography, climate, and phenotypic variables (individual/family spring and autumn phenology, family diameter at breast height (DBH), height, and survival) that are potentially involved in local adaptation. Then, using a nonlinear multivariate model, Gradient Forests, we identified vulnerable areas of the pedunculate oak distribution in Poland that are at risk from climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

The model revealed that pedunculate oak populations in the eastern part of the analyzed geographical region are the most sensitive to climate change. Our results might offer an initial evaluation of a potential management strategy for preserving the genetic diversity of pedunculate oak.

Flowering phenology differs among wet and dry sub-alpine meadows in southwestern China

The effect of floral traits, floral rewards and plant water availability on plant-pollinator interactions are well-documented; however, empirical evidence of their impact on flowering phenology in high-elevation meadows remains scarce. In this study, we assessed three levels of flowering phenology, i.e. population-, individual- and flower-level (floral longevity), in two nearby but contrasting (wet versus dry) sub-alpine meadows on Yulong Snow Mountain, southwestern China. We also measured a series of floral traits (pollen number, ovule number, and the ratio of pollen to ovule number per flower, i.e. pollen:ovule ratio [P/O]) and floral rewards (nectar availability and pollen presentation) as plausible additional sources of variation for each phenological level. Floral longevity in the wet meadow was significantly longer than that for the dry meadow, whereas population- and individual-flowering duration were significantly shorter. Our results showed a significant positive relationship between flowering phenology with pollen number and P/O per flower; there was no relationship with ovule number per flower. Further, we found a significant effect of flowering phenology on nectar availability and pollen presentation. Our findings suggest that shorter floral longevity in dry habitats compared to wet might be due to water-dependent maintenance costs of flowers, where the population- and individual-level flowering phenology may be less affected by habitats. Our study shows how different levels of flowering phenology underscore the plausible effects of contrasting habitats on reproductive success.

Resurrected seeds from herbarium specimens reveal rapid evolution of drought resistance in a selfing annual

PREMISE

Increased aridity and drought associated with climate change are exerting unprecedented selection pressures on plant populations. Whether populations can rapidly adapt, and which life history traits might confer increased fitness under drought, remain outstanding questions.

METHODS

We utilized a resurrection ecology approach, leveraging dormant seeds from herbarium collections to assess whether populations of Plantago patagonica from the semi-arid Colorado Plateau have rapidly evolved in response to approximately ten years of intense drought in the region. We quantified multiple traits associated with drought escape and drought resistance and assessed the survival of ancestors and descendants under simulated drought.

RESULTS

Descendant populations displayed a significant shift in resource allocation, in which they invested less in reproductive tissues and relatively more in both above- and below-ground vegetative tissues. Plants with greater leaf biomass survived longer under terminal drought; moreover, even after accounting for the effect of increased leaf biomass, descendant seedlings survived drought longer than their ancestors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results document rapid adaptive evolution in response to climate change in a selfing annual and suggest that shifts in tissue allocation strategies may underlie adaptive responses to drought in arid or semi-arid environments. This work also illustrates a novel approach, documenting that under specific circumstances, seeds from herbarium specimens may provide an untapped source of dormant propagules for future resurrection experiments.

Ten best practices for effective phenological research

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology.

Spring temperature drives phenotypic selection on plasticity of flowering time

In seasonal environments, a high responsiveness of development to increasing temperatures in spring can infer benefits in terms of a longer growing season, but also costs in terms of an increased risk of facing unfavourable weather conditions. Still, we know little about how climatic conditions influence the optimal plastic response. Using 22 years of field observations for the perennial forest herb Lathyrus vernus, we assessed phenotypic selection on among-individual variation in reaction norms of flowering time to spring temperature, and examined if among-year variation in selection on plasticity was associated with spring temperature conditions. We found significant among-individual variation in mean flowering time and flowering time plasticity, and that plants that flowered earlier also had a more plastic flowering time. Selection favoured individuals with an earlier mean flowering time and a lower thermal plasticity of flowering time. Less plastic individuals were more strongly favoured in colder springs, indicating that spring temperature influenced optimal flowering time plasticity. Our results show how selection on plasticity can be linked to climatic conditions, and illustrate how we can understand and predict evolutionary responses of organisms to changing environmental conditions.

Climate change is leading to rapid shifts in seasonality in the himalaya

Climate change has significantly impacted vegetation phenology across the globe with vegetation experiencing an advance in the spring green-up phases and a delay in fall senescence. However, some studies from high latitudes and high elevations have instead shown delayed spring phenology, owing to a lack of chilling fulfillment and altered snow cover and photoperiods. Here we use the MODIS satellite-derived view-angle corrected surface reflectance data (MCD43A4) to document the four phenological phases in the high elevations of the Sikkim Himalaya and compared the phenological trends between below-treeline zones and above-treeline zones. This analysis of remotely sensed data for the study period (2001-2017) reveals considerable shifts in the phenology of the Sikkim Himalaya. Advances in the spring start of the season phase (SOS) were more pronounced than delays in the dates for maturity (MAT), senescence (EOS), and advanced dormancy (DOR). The SOS significantly advanced by 21.3 days while the MAT and EOS were delayed by 15.7 days and 6.5 days respectively over the 17-year study period. The DOR showed an advance of 8.2 days over the study period. The region below the treeline showed more pronounced shifts in phenology with respect to an advanced SOS and a delayed EOS and DOR that above treeline. The MAT, however, showed a greater delay in the zone above the treeline than below. Lastly, unlike other studies from high elevations, there is no indication that winter chilling requirements are driving the spring phenology in this region. We discuss four possible explanations for why vegetation phenology in the high elevations of the Eastern Himalaya may exhibit trends independent of chilling requirements and soil moisture due to mediation by snow cover.

How consistently do species leaf-out or flower in the same order? Understanding the factors that shape this characteristic of plant communities

Plant species are frequently reported to undergo leaf-out and flowering in a consistent order from 1 year to the next; however, only a limited number of these findings arise from studies encompassing many species or sites. Here, we evaluate the consistency in the order species leafed out in the northeastern United States using observations contributed to the USA National Phenology Network's Nature's Notebook platform. We repeated this analysis for flowering, evaluating a total of 132 species across 84 sites. We documented a relatively high degree of consistency in the order of both events among individual plants, with higher consistency in flowering. A small number of species pairs exhibited very high consistency in phenological order across several sites. The majority of species pairs exhibited variability in how consistently they underwent either leaf-out or flowering from site to site, which could be the result of either plastic or locally adaptive responses. Our investigation revealed that neither functional type nor seasonal position played a major role in shaping how consistently species leafed out or flowered in the same order. Instead, we found the number of days separating the events and interannual variability in timing to be the most influential factors driving the consistency in ordering.

Response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in urban agglomeration areas: A dynamic urban-rural gradient perspective

Being an important theme in global warming, the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization has become an increasing concern at both the local and global levels. Previous studies have focused on spatial or temporal responses across urban-rural gradients; thus, the influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology along the dynamic urbanization gradient has not been well quantified. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GHM-GBA) from a dynamic urban-rural gradient perspective. The results show that the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization level has a distinct spatiotemporal difference across the urban-rural gradient. Compared to rural areas, the change rate of advancements in the start-of-season (SOS) in urban domains was 1.16 DOY/year and that of the end-of-season (EOS) was 0.63 days/year from 2001 to 2020. In the GHM-GBA region, 61.03 % of the remote sensing pixels showed an advancing trend for SOS and 55.75 % for EOS. Urbanization advanced the SOS and EOS but did not extend the growing season length, and the SOS and EOS were advanced by 7 and 6 days along the urban-to-rural gradient, respectively. For every 10 % increase in urbanization levels, the SOS and EOS advanced by 1.085 and 1.091 days across the urban-rural gradient, respectively; the spring land surface temperature (LST) advanced the SOS at a rate of 1.71 days/°C, while the autumn LST advanced the EOS at a rate of 1.88 days/°C. The phenological shift in the urban-rural gradient was more significant than that over time, which was mainly because of land surface warming under different urbanization levels. These quantitative findings are of great importance for understanding the complicated impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology and for developing models to predict vegetation phenological changes under future urbanization.

Differences in individual flowering time change pollen limitation and seed set in three montane wildflowers

PREMISE

Changes to flowering time caused by climate change could affects plant fecundity, but studies that compare the individual-level responses of phenologically distinct, co-occurring species are lacking. We assessed how variation in floral phenology affects the fecundity of individuals from three montane species with different seasonal flowering times, including in snowmelt acceleration treatments to increase variability in phenology.

METHODS

We collected floral phenology and seed set data for individuals of three montane plant species (Mertensia fusiformis, Delphinium nuttallianum, Potentilla pulcherrima). To examine the drivers of seed set, we measured conspecific floral density and conducted pollen limitation experiments to isolate pollination function. We advanced the phenology of plant communities in a controlled large-scale snowmelt acceleration experiment.

RESULTS

Differences in individual phenology relative to the rest of the population affected fecundity in our focal species, but effects were species-specific. For our early-season species, individuals that bloomed later than the population peak bloom had increased fecundity, while for our midseason species, simply blooming before or after the population peak increased individual fecundity. For our late-season species, blooming earlier than the population peak increased fecundity. The early and midseason species were pollen-limited, and conspecific density affected seed set only for our early-season species.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that variation in individual phenology affects fecundity in three phenologically distinct montane species, and that pollen limitation may be more influential than conspecific density. Our results suggest that individual-level changes in phenology are important to consider for understanding plant reproductive success.

The importance of a holistic approach to the factors determining population abundances

Research Highlight: Ogilvie, J. E., & CaraDonna, P. J. (2022). The shifting importance of abiotic and biotic factors across the life cycles of wild pollinators. Journal of Animal Ecology, 91, 2412-2423. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13825. As global change and its multiple impacts continue to unfold across most of the planet, understanding how populations of wild species respond to changing conditions has become a major focus of ecological studies. Ogilvie and CaraDonna (Ogilvie & CaraDonna, 2022) focus on understanding how biotic and abiotic conditions affect bumblebee abundances. A major advance in their work is that, rather than focusing on a single measure of abundance at a particular life stage for each of the seven bumblebee species they survey (e.g. adult abundance), they focus on understanding the drivers of population abundance across the different stages of the species' life cycles. The authors specifically assess how three factors in particular, climate conditions, floral resource availability and previous life-stage abundances impact these abundances. A main finding in their study is that each of these three factors directly impacted a different life stage, showing that just focusing on a single life-stage would have resulted on a biased and incomplete picture of how abiotic and biotic factors affect bumblebee population dynamics. Studies like this one emphasize the need to focus on understanding the demographic mechanisms that determine population abundances.

Assessing the breeding phenology of a threatened frog species using eDNA and automatic acoustic monitoring

Background

Climate change has driven shifts in breeding phenology of many amphibians, causing phenological mismatches (e.g., predator-prey interactions), and potentially population declines. Collecting data with high spatiotemporal sensitivity on hibernation emergence and breeding times can inform conservation best practices. However, monitoring the phenology of amphibians can be challenging because of their cryptic nature over much of their life cycle. Moreover, most salamanders and caecilians do not produce conspicuous breeding calls like frogs and toads do, presenting additional monitoring challenges.

Methods

In this study, we designed and evaluated the performance of an environmental DNA (eDNA) droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) assay as a non-invasive tool to assess the breeding phenology of a Western Chorus Frog population (Pseudacris maculata mitotype) in Eastern Ontario and compared eDNA detection patterns to hourly automatic acoustic monitoring. For two eDNA samples with strong PCR inhibition, we tested three methods to diminish the effect of inhibitors: diluting eDNA samples, adding bovine serum albumin to PCR reactions, and purifying eDNA using a commercial clean-up kit.

Results

We recorded the first male calling when the focal marsh was still largely frozen. Chorus frog eDNA was detected on April 6^th, 6 days after acoustic monitoring revealed this first calling male, but only 2 days after males attained higher chorus activity. eDNA signals were detected at more sampling locales within the marsh and eDNA concentrations increased as more males participated in the chorus, suggesting that eDNA may be a reasonable proxy for calling assemblage size. Internal positive control revealed strong inhibition in some samples, limiting detection probability and quantification accuracy in ddPCR. We found diluting samples was the most effective in reducing inhibition and improving eDNA quantification.

Conclusions

Altogether, our results showed that eDNA ddPCR signals lagged behind male chorusing by a few days; thus, acoustic monitoring is preferable if the desire is to document the onset of male chorusing. However, eDNA may be an effective, non-invasive monitoring tool for amphibians that do not call and may provide a useful complement to automated acoustic recording. We found inhibition patterns were heterogeneous across time and space and we demonstrate that an internal positive control should always be included to assess inhibition for eDNA ddPCR signal interpretations.

Limits on phenological response to high temperature in the Arctic

Tundra plants are widely considered to be constrained by cool growing conditions and short growing seasons. Furthermore, phenological development is generally predicted by daily heat sums calculated as growing degree days. Analyzing over a decade of seasonal flower counts of 23 plant species distributed across four plant communities, together with hourly canopy-temperature records, we show that the timing of flowering of many tundra plants are best predicted by a modified growing degree day model with a maximum temperature threshold. Threshold maximums are commonly employed in agriculture, but until recently have not been considered for natural ecosystems and to our knowledge have not been used for tundra plants. Estimated maximum temperature thresholds were found to be within the range of daily temperatures commonly experienced for many species, particularly for plants at the colder, high Arctic study site. These findings provide an explanation for why passive experimental warming-where moderate changes in mean daily temperatures are accompanied by larger changes in daily maximum temperatures-generally shifts plant phenology less than ambient warming. Our results also suggest that many plants adapted to extreme cold environments may have limits to their thermal responsiveness.

Warming reduced flowering synchrony and extended community flowering season in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

The timing of phenological events is highly sensitive to climate change, and may influence ecosystem structure and function. Although changes in flowering phenology among species under climate change have been reported widely, how species-specific shifts will affect phenological synchrony and community-level phenology patterns remains unclear. We conducted a manipulative experiment of warming and precipitation addition and reduction to explore how climate change affected flowering phenology at the species and community levels in an alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We found that warming advanced the first and last flowering times differently and with no consistent shifts in flowering duration among species, resulting in the entire flowering period of species emerging earlier in the growing season. Early-flowering species were more sensitive to warming than mid- and late-flowering species, thereby reducing flowering synchrony among species and extending the community-level flowering season. However, precipitation and its interactions with warming had no significant effects on flowering phenology. Our results suggest that temperature regulates flowering phenology from the species to community levels in this alpine meadow community, yet how species shifted their flowering timing and duration in response to warming varied. This species-level divergence may reshape flowering phenology in this alpine plant community. Decreasing flowering synchrony among species and the extension of community-level flowering seasons under warming may alter future trophic interactions, with cascading consequences to community and ecosystem function.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Skewness in bee and flower phenological distributions

Phenological distributions are characterized by their central tendency, breadth, and shape, and all three determine the extent to which interacting species overlap in time. Pollination mutualisms rely on temporal co-occurrence of pollinators and their floral resources, and although much work has been done to characterize the shapes of flower phenological distributions, similar studies that include pollinators are lacking. Here, we provide the first broad assessment of skewness, a component of distribution shape, for a bee community. We compare skewness in bees to that in flowers, relate bee and flower skewness to other properties of their phenology, and quantify the potential consequences of differences in skewness between bees and flowers. Both bee and flower phenologies tend to be right-skewed, with a more exaggerated asymmetry in bees. Early-season species tend to be the most skewed, and this relationship is also stronger in bees than in flowers. Based on a simulation experiment, differences in bee and flower skewness could account for up to 14% of pairwise overlap differences. Given the potential for interaction loss, we argue that difference in skewness of interacting species is an underappreciated property of phenological change.