Viral shedding and clinical illness in naturally acquired influenza virus infections

Changes in behavior and biomarkers during the diagnostic decision period for COVID-19, influenza, and group A streptococcus (GAS): a two-year prospective cohort study in Israel

Background

Limited knowledge exists regarding behavioral and biomarker shifts during the period from respiratory infection exposure to testing decisions (the diagnostic decision period), a key phase affecting transmission dynamics and public health strategy development. This study aims to examine the changes in behavior and biomarkers during the diagnostic decision period for COVID-19, influenza, and group A streptococcus (GAS).

Methods

We analyzed data from a two-year prospective cohort study involving 4795 participants in Israel, incorporating smartwatch data, self-reported symptoms, and medical records. Our analysis focused on three critical phases: the digital incubation period (from exposure to physiological anomalies detected by smartwatches), the symptomatic incubation period (from exposure to onset of symptoms), and the diagnostic decision period for influenza, COVID-19, and GAS.

Findings

The delay between initial symptom reporting and testing was 39 [95% confidence interval (CI): 34-45] hours for influenza, 53 [95% CI: 49-58] hours for COVID-19, and 38 [95% CI: 32-46] hours for GAS, with 73 [95% CI: 67-78] hours from anomalies in heart measures to symptom onset for influenza, 23 [95% CI: 18-27] hours for COVID-19, and 62 [95% CI: 54-68] hours for GAS. Analyzing the entire course of infection of each individual, the greatest changes in heart rates were detected 67.6 [95% CI: 62.8-72.5] hours prior to testing for influenza, 64.1 [95% CI: 61.4-66.7] hours prior for COVID-19, and 58.2 [95% CI: 52.1-64.2] hours prior for GAS. In contrast, the greatest reduction in physical activities and social contacts occurred after testing.

Interpretation

These findings highlight the delayed response of patients in seeking medical attention and reducing social contacts and demonstrate the transformative potential of smartwatches for identifying infection and enabling timely public health interventions.

Funding

This work was supported by the European Research Council, project #949850, the Israel Science Foundation (ISF), grant No. 3409/19, within the Israel Precision Medicine Partnership program, and a Koret Foundation gift for Smart Cities and Digital Living.

The role of asymptomatic infections in influenza transmission: what do we really know

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in influenza transmission was uncertain. However, the importance of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 for onward transmission of COVID-19 has led experts to question whether the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in transmission had been underappreciated. We discuss the existing evidence on the frequency of asymptomatic influenza virus infections, the extent to which they contribute to infection transmission, and remaining knowledge gaps. We propose priority areas for further evaluation, study designs, and case definitions to address existing knowledge gaps.

Modeling the Transmission Mitigation Impact of Testing for Infectious Diseases

A fundamental question of any program focused on the testing and timely diagnosis of a communicable disease is its effectiveness in reducing transmission. Here, we introduce testing effectiveness (TE)-the fraction by which testing and post-diagnosis isolation reduce transmission at the population scale-and a model that incorporates test specifications and usage, within-host pathogen dynamics, and human behaviors to estimate TE. Using TE to guide recommendations, we show that today's rapid diagnostics should be used immediately upon symptom onset to control influenza A and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), but delayed by up to 2d to control omicron-era SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, while rapid tests are superior to RT-qPCR for control of founder-strain SARS-CoV-2, omicron-era changes in viral kinetics and rapid test sensitivity cause a reversal, with higher TE for RT-qPCR despite longer turnaround times. Finally, we illustrate the model's flexibility by quantifying tradeoffs in the use of post-diagnosis testing to shorten isolation times.

Influenza transmission dynamics quantified from RNA in wastewater in Switzerland

INTRODUCTION

Influenza infections are challenging to monitor at the population level due to many mild and asymptomatic cases and similar symptoms to other common circulating respiratory diseases, including COVID-19. Methods for tracking cases outside of typical reporting infrastructure could improve monitoring of influenza transmission dynamics. Influenza shedding into wastewater represents a promising source of information where quantification is unbiased by testing or treatment-seeking behaviours.

METHODS

We quantified influenza A and B virus loads from influent at Switzerland's three largest wastewater treatment plants, serving about 14% of the Swiss population (1.2 million individuals). We estimated trends in infection incidence and the effective reproductive number (Re) in these catchments during a 2021/22 epidemic and compared our estimates to typical influenza surveillance data.

RESULTS

Wastewater data captured the same overall trends in infection incidence as laboratory-confirmed case data at the catchment level. However, the wastewater data were more sensitive in capturing a transient peak in incidence in December 2021 than the case data. The Re estimated from the wastewater data was roughly at or below the epidemic threshold of 1 during work-from-home measures in December 2021 but increased to at or above the epidemic threshold in two of the three catchments after the relaxation of these measures. The third catchment yielded qualitatively the same results but with wider confidence intervals. The confirmed case data at the catchment level yielded comparatively less precise R_e estimates before and during the work-from-home period, with confidence intervals that included one before and during the work-from-home period.

DISCUSSION

Overall, we show that influenza RNA in wastewater can help monitor nationwide influenza transmission dynamics. Based on this research, we developed an online dashboard for ongoing wastewater-based influenza surveillance in Switzerland.

Association of recent respiratory illness and influenza with acute myocardial infarction among the Bangladeshi population: A case-control study

Current evidence suggests that recent acute respiratory infections and seasonal influenza may precipitate acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study examined the potential link between recent clinical respiratory illness (CRI) and influenza, and AMI in Bangladesh. Conducted during the 2018 influenza season at a Dhaka tertiary-level cardiovascular (CV) hospital, it included 150 AMI cases and two control groups: 44 hospitalized cardiac patients without AMI and 90 healthy individuals. Participants were matched by gender and age groups. The study focused on self-reported CRI and laboratory-confirmed influenza ascertained via quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) within the preceding week, analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Results showed that cases reported CRI, significantly more frequently than healthy controls (27.3% vs. 13.3%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-4.06), although this was not significantly different from all controls (27.3% vs. 22.4%; aOR: 1.19; 95% CI: 0.65-2.18). Influenza rates were insignificantly higher among cases than controls. The study suggests that recent respiratory illnesses may precede AMI onset among Bangladeshi patients. Infection prevention and control practices, as well as the uptake of the influenza vaccine, may be advocated for patients at high risk of acute CV events.

Influenza in Children and Adolescents: Epidemiology, Management, and Prevention

EDUCATION GAP

Influenza is among the most common infectious causes of pediatric emergency department visits and hospitalizations. Clinicians should use evidence-based guidelines to learn how to identify, manage, prevent, and treat influenza cases. Disease caused by influenza virus can be mitigated with appropriate treatment and prevention efforts.

OBJECTIVES After completing this article, readers should be able to:

1. Describe the virology and epidemiology of influenza.

2. List the clinical features and complications of influenza infections.

3. List the benefits and limitations of testing modalities for the diagnosis of influenza.

4. Appropriately apply American Academy of Pediatrics, Infectious Diseases Society of America, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) treatment guidelines for influenza or suspected influenza.

5. Describe the importance of influenza vaccination.

No association between inactivated influenza vaccination and influenza viral load at diagnosis among young Japanese children: An observational study of the 2013/2014 through 2017/2018 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

The association between inactivated influenza vaccination and viral load in young children remains unclear.

METHODS

During the 2013/2014 to 2017/2018 influenza seasons in Japan, children under 6 years of age with pre-defined influenza-like illness and influenza-positive status by real-time RT-PCR were recruited at pediatric clinics for this observational study. Influenza viral load was measured for the most predominant subtype/lineage in each season. Using median dichotomized viral load as an outcome, a multilevel logistic regression model was applied to estimate the multivariable adjusted odds ratio (MOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for higher viral load.

RESULTS

A total of 1,185 influenza-positive children were analyzed. The median log10 viral load copy number (copies per milliliter) was 5.5 (interquartile range, 4.6 to 6.1) and did not differ by vaccination status: 5.5 for unvaccinated, 5.7 for one dose, and 5.5 for two doses (p = 0.67). The MOR of vaccinated (one or two doses) versus unvaccinated children was 1.19 (95% CI: 0.86-1.64). Other factors showing significant associations with higher viral load were positive results for A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in comparison with B/Yamagata. The respective MORs were 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.64) and 1.81 (95% CI: 1.32-2.49). Significantly elevated MORs against higher viral load were also observed for higher body temperature at influenza diagnosis and shorter duration from fever onset to specimen collection.

CONCLUSION

No association was observed between inactivated-influenza vaccination and viral load at influenza-positive diagnosis. Influenza subtype/lineage, body temperature, and time elapsed since fever onset were significantly associated with viral load.

ATQ: alert time quality, an evaluation metric for assessing timely epidemic detection models within a school absenteeism-based surveillance system

BACKGROUND

Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health (WDGPH) has conducted an absenteeism-based influenza surveillance program in the WDG region of Ontario, Canada since 2008, using a 10% absenteeism threshold to raise an alert for the implementation of mitigating measures. A recent study indicated that model-based alternatives, such as distributed lag seasonal logistic regression models, provided improved alerts for detecting an upcoming epidemic. However model evaluation and selection was primarily based on alert accuracy, measured by the false alert rate (FAR), and failed to optimize timeliness. Here, a new metric that simultaneously evaluates epidemic alert accuracy and timeliness is proposed. The alert time quality (ATQ) metric is investigated as a model selection criterion on both a simulated and real data set.

METHODS

The ATQ assessed alerts on a gradient, where alerts raised incrementally before or after an optimal day were considered informative, but were penalized for lack of timeliness. Summary statistics of ATQ, average alert time quality (AATQ) and first alert time quality (FATQ), were used for model evaluation and selection. Alerts raised by ATQ and FAR selected models were compared. Daily elementary school absenteeism and laboratory-confirmed influenza case data collected by WDGPH were used for demonstration and evaluation of the proposed metric. A simulation study that mimicked the WDG population and influenza demographics was conducted for further evaluation of the proposed metric.

RESULTS

The FATQ-selected model raised acceptable first alerts most frequently, while the AATQ-selected model raised first alerts within the ideal range most frequently.

CONCLUSIONS

Models selected by either FATQ or AATQ would more effectively predict community influenza activity with the local community than those selected by FAR.

Influenza and COVID-19 Co-infection

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Influenza

Annual seasonal influenza epidemics of variable severity caused by influenza A and B virus infections result in substantial disease burden worldwide. Seasonal influenza virus circulation declined markedly in 2020-21 after SARS-CoV-2 emerged but increased in 2021-22. Most people with influenza have abrupt onset of respiratory symptoms and myalgia with or without fever and recover within 1 week, but some can experience severe or fatal complications. Prevention is primarily by annual influenza vaccination, with efforts underway to develop new vaccines with improved effectiveness. Sporadic zoonotic infections with novel influenza A viruses of avian or swine origin continue to pose pandemic threats. In this Seminar, we discuss updates of key influenza issues for clinicians, in particular epidemiology, virology, and pathogenesis, diagnostic testing including multiplex assays that detect influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2, complications, antiviral treatment, influenza vaccines, infection prevention, and non-pharmaceutical interventions, and highlight gaps in clinical management and priorities for clinical research.

Rapid Antigen Assays for SARS-CoV-2: Promise and Peril

Though rapid antigen tests have historically problematic performance characteristics for the diagnosis of respiratory viral infections such as influenza, they have attained an unprecedented level of use in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ease of use and scalability of rapid antigen tests has facilitated a democratization and scale of testing beyond anything reasonably achievable by traditional laboratory-based testing. In this chapter, we discuss the performance characteristics of rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 detection and their application to non-traditional uses beyond clinical diagnostic testing.

Pneumonia Severity and Phase Linked to Virus-Specific T Cell Responses with Distinct Immune Checkpoints during pH1N1 Infection

The detailed features and the longitudinal variation of influenza-specific T cell responses within naturally infected patients and the relationship with disease severity remain uncertain. In this study, we characterized the longitudinal influenza-specific CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cell responses, T cell activation, and migration-related cytokine/chemokine secretion in pH1N1-infected patients with or without viral pneumonia with human PBMCs. Both the influenza-specific CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells presented higher responses in patients with severe infection than in mild ones, but with distinct longitudinal variations, phenotypes of memory markers, and immune checkpoints. At 7 ± 3 d after onset of illness, effector CD8⁺ T cells (CD45RA⁺CCR7^-) with high expression of inhibitory immune receptor CD200R dominated the specific T cell responses. However, at 21 ± 3 d after onset of illness, effector memory CD4⁺ T cells (CD45RA^-CCR7^-) with high expression of PD1, CTLA4, and LAG3 were higher among the patients with severe disease. The specific T cell magnitude, T cell activation, and migration-related cytokines/chemokines possessed a strong connection with disease severity. Our findings illuminate the distinct characteristics of immune system activation during dynamic disease phases and its correlation with lung injury of pH1N1 patients.

Seasonal influenza vaccination of healthcare workers: a narrative review

Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus which often occurs in outbreaks and epidemics worldwide. The World Health Organization recommends annual vaccination of healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza, because most of them are involved in the direct care of patients with a high risk of influenza-related complications. Given the significance of the disease burden, a targeted literature review was conducted to assess issues related to influenza vaccination among HCWs. The primary aim of this review was to assess the incidence of influenza among medical personnel and healthcare-associated influenza, and to outline the benefits of influenza vaccination for patients and HCWs themselves. Vaccination of HCWs seems to be an important strategy for reducing the transmission of influenza from healthcare personnel to their patients and, therefore, for reducing patient morbidity and mortality, increasing patient safety, and reducing work absenteeism among HCWs. The benefits of influenza vaccination for their patients and for HCWs themselves are addressed in literature, but the evidence is mixed and often of low-quality. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2022;35(2):127-39.

Incidence of Influenza Virus Infection among Wroclaw's Healthcare Workers in Pre-COVID-19 2019-2020 Influenza Season Using Novel Flu SensDx Device

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are more exposed to influenza infection, and the influenza vaccination is recommended each year, to reduce the risk of influenza infection and prevent influenza transmission. This study is a cross-sectional study and the objectives were to determine the rate of influenza virus infection among HCWs in the 2019−2020 influenza season. Methods: Between January and March 2020, a survey was carried out in 2 hospitals and 15 primary health-care settings (PHCS) in Wroclaw (Poland). The novel point-of-care testing Flu SensDx device was used, which detects the M1 protein of the influenza virus using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy from biological material (throat/nasal swabs). Results: A total of 150 samples were collected. The majority of participating HCWs by profession were 83 physicians (55.3%) and half (51.3%) of the participating HCWs worked in PHCS. Influenza vaccination coverage was 61.3% in 2019−2020 and 46.0% in the 2018−2019 season for all participants. Of the participating HCWs, 44.0% were positive tested by the Flu SensDx device. There were no statistically significant differences among the positive tested HCWs, their influenza immunization history, and the presence of symptoms of influenza-like illness (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Although the results of the present study suggest that influenza vaccination does not reduce the frequency of influenza virus detection by Flu SensDx testing in the HCWs participants, larger studies are needed to estimate the incidence of influenza virus infection among HCWs to understand the underlying mechanism and fine-tune policies aimed at reducing nosocomial infections.

Timing of exposure is critical in a highly sensitive model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Transmission efficiency is a critical factor determining the size of an outbreak of infectious disease. Indeed, the propensity of SARS-CoV-2 to transmit among humans precipitated and continues to sustain the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, the number of new cases among contacts is highly variable and underlying reasons for wide-ranging transmission outcomes remain unclear. Here, we evaluated viral spread in golden Syrian hamsters to define the impact of temporal and environmental conditions on the efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 transmission through the air. Our data show that exposure periods as brief as one hour are sufficient to support robust transmission. However, the timing after infection is critical for transmission success, with the highest frequency of transmission to contacts occurring at times of peak viral load in the donor animals. Relative humidity and temperature had no detectable impact on transmission when exposures were carried out with optimal timing and high inoculation dose. However, contrary to expectation, trends observed with sub-optimal exposure timing and lower inoculation dose suggest improved transmission at high relative humidity or high temperature. In sum, among the conditions tested, our data reveal the timing of exposure to be the strongest determinant of SARS-CoV-2 transmission success and implicate viral load as an important driver of transmission.

Diagnostic Accuracy of an At-Home, Rapid Self-test for Influenza: Prospective Comparative Accuracy Study

Background

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for influenza used by individuals at home could potentially expand access to testing and reduce the impact of influenza on health systems. Improving access to testing could lead to earlier diagnosis following symptom onset, allowing more rapid interventions for those who test positive, including behavioral changes to minimize spread. However, the accuracy of RDTs for influenza has not been determined in self-testing populations.

Objective

This study aims to assess the accuracy of an influenza RDT conducted at home by lay users with acute respiratory illness compared with that of a self-collected sample by the same individual mailed to a laboratory for reference testing.

Methods

We conducted a comparative accuracy study of an at-home influenza RDT (Ellume) in a convenience sample of individuals experiencing acute respiratory illness symptoms. Participants were enrolled in February and March 2020 from the Greater Seattle region in Washington, United States. Participants were mailed the influenza RDT and reference sample collection materials, which they completed and returned for quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction influenza testing in a central laboratory. We explored the impact of age, influenza type, duration, and severity of symptoms on RDT accuracy and on cycle threshold for influenza virus and ribonuclease P, a marker of human DNA.

Results

A total of 605 participants completed all study steps and were included in our analysis, of whom 87 (14.4%) tested positive for influenza by quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (70/87, 80% for influenza A and 17/87, 20% for influenza B). The overall sensitivity and specificity of the RDT compared with the reference test were 61% (95% CI 50%-71%) and 95% (95% CI 93%-97%), respectively. Among individuals with symptom onset ≤72 hours, sensitivity was 63% (95% CI 48%-76%) and specificity was 94% (95% CI 91%-97%), whereas, for those with duration >72 hours, sensitivity and specificity were 58% (95% CI 41%-74%) and 96% (95% CI 93%-98%), respectively. Viral load on reference swabs was negatively correlated with symptom onset, and quantities of the endogenous marker gene ribonuclease P did not differ among reference standard positive and negative groups, age groups, or influenza subtypes. The RDT did not have higher sensitivity or specificity among those who reported more severe illnesses.

Conclusions

The sensitivity and specificity of the self-test were comparable with those of influenza RDTs used in clinical settings. False-negative self-test results were more common when the test was used after 72 hours of symptom onset but were not related to inadequate swab collection or severity of illness. Therefore, the deployment of home tests may provide a valuable tool to support the management of influenza and other respiratory infections.

Flu@home: The comparative accuracy of an at-home influenza rapid diagnostic test, using a pre-positioned test kit, mobile app, mail-in reference sample, and symptom-based testing trigger

At-home testing with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for respiratory viruses could facilitate early diagnosis, guide patient care, and prevent transmission. Such RDTs are best used near the onset of illness when viral load is highest and clinical action will be most impactful, which may be achieved by at-home testing. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the QuickVue Influenza A + B RDT in an at-home setting. A convenience sample of 5,229 individuals who were engaged with an on-line health research platform were prospectively recruited throughout the United States. "flu@home" test kits containing a QuickVue RDT and reference sample collection and shipping materials were pre-positioned with participants at the beginning of the study. Participants responded to daily symptom surveys. If they reported experiencing cough along with aches, fever, chills, and/or sweats, they used their flu@home kit following instructions on a mobile app and indicated what lines they saw on the RDT. Of the 976 participants who met criteria to use their self-collection kit and completed study procedures, 202 (20.7%) were positive for influenza by qPCR. The RDT had a sensitivity of 28% (95% CI: 21-36) and specificity of 99% (98-99) for influenza A, and 32% (95% CI: 20-46) and 99% (95% CI: 98-99), for influenza B. Our results support the concept of app-supported, pre-positioned at-home RDT kits using symptom-based triggers, although it cannot be recommended with the RDT used in this study. Further research is needed to determine ways to improve the accuracy and utility of home-based testing for influenza.

Caveats on COVID-19 herd immunity threshold: the Spain case

After a year of living with the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated consequences, hope looms on the horizon thanks to vaccines. The question is what percentage of the population needs to be immune to reach herd immunity, that is to avoid future outbreaks. The answer depends on the basic reproductive number, R₀, a key epidemiological parameter measuring the transmission capacity of a disease. In addition to the virus itself, R₀ also depends on the characteristics of the population and their environment. Additionally, the estimate of R₀ depends on the methodology used, the accuracy of data and the generation time distribution. This study aims to reflect on the difficulties surrounding R₀ estimation, and provides Spain with a threshold for herd immunity, for which we considered the different combinations of all the factors that affect the R₀ of the Spanish population. Estimates of R₀ range from 1.39 to 3.10 for the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 variant, with the largest differences produced by the method chosen to estimate R₀. With these values, the herd immunity threshold (HIT) ranges from 28.1 to 67.7%, which would have made 70% a realistic upper bound for Spain. However, the imposition of the delta variant (B.1.617.2 lineage) in late summer 2021 may have expanded the range of R₀ to 4.02–8.96 and pushed the upper bound of the HIT to 90%.

Nasopharyngeal Swabs vs. Nasal Aspirates for Respiratory Virus Detection: A Systematic Review

Nasal pathogen detection sensitivities can be as low as 70% despite advances in molecular diagnostics. This may be linked to the choice of sampling method. A diagnostic test accuracy review for sensitivity was undertaken to compare sensitivity of swabbing to the nasopharynx and extracting nasal aspirates, using the PRISMA protocol, Cochrane rapid review methodology, and QUADAS-2 risk of bias tools, with meta-analysis of included studies. Sensitivities were calculated by a consensus standard of positivity by either method as the ‘gold standard.’ Insufficient sampling methodology, cross sectional study designs, and studies pooling samples across anatomical sites were excluded. Of 13 subsequently eligible studies, 8 had ‘high’ risk of bias, and 5 had ‘high’ applicability concerns. There were no statistical differences in overall sensitivities between collection methods for eight different viruses, and this did not differ with use of PCR, immunofluorescence, or culture. In one study alone, Influenza H1N1(2009) favored nasopharyngeal swabs, with aspirates having 93.3% of the sensitivity of swabs (p > 0.001). Similarly equivocal sensitivities were noted in reports detecting bacteria. The chain of sampling, from anatomical site to laboratory results, features different potential foci along which sensitivity may be lost. A fair body of evidence exists that use of a different sampling method will not yield more respiratory pathogens.

The role of chest imaging in the diagnosis, management, and monitoring of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed a major public health crisis all over the world. The role of chest imaging, especially computed tomography (CT), has evolved during the pandemic paralleling the accumulation of scientific evidence. In the early stage of the pandemic, the performance of chest imaging for COVID-19 has widely been debated especially in the context of comparison to real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Current evidence is against the use of chest imaging for routine screening of COVID-19 contrary to the initial expectations. It still has an integral role to play, however, in its work up and staging, especially when assessing complications or disease progression. Chest CT is gold standard imaging modality for COVID-19 pneumonia; in some situations, chest X-ray or ultrasound may be an effective alternative. The most important role of radiologists in this context is to be able to identify those patients at greatest risk of imminent clinical decompensation by learning to stratify cases of COVID-19 on the basis of radiologic imaging in the most efficient and timely fashion possible. The present availability of multiple and more refined CT grading systems and classification is now making this task easier and thereby contributing to the recent improvements achieved in COVID-19 treatment and outcomes. In this article, evidence of chest imaging regarding diagnosis, management and monitoring of COVID-19 will be chronologically reviewed.

Co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses: A systematic review and meta-analysis

We conducted this meta-analysis to determine the proportion of co-infection with influenza viruses in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients and to investigate the severity of COVID-19 in these patients. We included studies with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by qRT-PCR and influenza virus infection (A and/or B) by nucleic acid tests. The proportion of co-infection was compared between children and adults, and between critically ill or deceased patients compared to overall patients. Fifty-four articles were included. The overall proportion of co-infection was 0.7%, 95%CI = [0.4 – 1.3]. Most influenza co-infections were due to the influenza A virus (74.4%). The proportion of co-infection with influenza viruses among children (3.2%, 95% CI = [0.9 – 10.9]) was significantly higher than that in adult patients (0.3%, 95% CI = [0.1 – 1.2]), p-value <0.01. The proportion of co-infection with influenza viruses among critically ill patients tended to be higher than that in overall patients (2.2%, 95% CI = [0.3 – 22.4] versus 0.6%, 95% CI = [0.3 – 1.2], respectively, p-value = 0.22). Screening for pathogens in co-infection, particularly influenza viruses in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, is necessary. This warrants close surveillance and investigation of the co-incidences and interactions of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses, which is facilitated by the expansion of syndromic diagnosis approaches through the use of multiplex PCR assays.

Cell-phone traces reveal infection-associated behavioral change

Infectious disease control critically depends on surveillance and predictive modeling of outbreaks. We argue that routine mobile-phone use can provide a source of infectious disease information via the measurements of behavioral changes in call-detail records (CDRs) collected for billing. In anonymous CDR metadata linked with individual health information from the A(H1N1)pdm09 outbreak in Iceland, we observe that people moved significantly less and placed fewer, but longer, calls in the few days around diagnosis than normal. These results suggest that disease-transmission models should explicitly consider behavior changes during outbreaks and advance mobile-phone traces as a potential universal data source for such efforts.

Epidemic preparedness depends on our ability to predict the trajectory of an epidemic and the human behavior that drives spread in the event of an outbreak. Changes to behavior during an outbreak limit the reliability of syndromic surveillance using large-scale data sources, such as online social media or search behavior, which could otherwise supplement healthcare-based outbreak-prediction methods. Here, we measure behavior change reflected in mobile-phone call-detail records (CDRs), a source of passively collected real-time behavioral information, using an anonymously linked dataset of cell-phone users and their date of influenza-like illness diagnosis during the 2009 H1N1v pandemic. We demonstrate that mobile-phone use during illness differs measurably from routine behavior: Diagnosed individuals exhibit less movement than normal (1.1 to 1.4 fewer unique tower locations; P<3.2×10−3), on average, in the 2 to 4 d around diagnosis and place fewer calls (2.3 to 3.3 fewer calls; P<5.6×10−4) while spending longer on the phone (41- to 66-s average increase; P<4.6×10−10) than usual on the day following diagnosis. The results suggest that anonymously linked CDRs and health data may be sufficiently granular to augment epidemic surveillance efforts and that infectious disease-modeling efforts lacking explicit behavior-change mechanisms need to be revisited.

Rapid multiplex PCR assays in patients with respiratory viral infections: is semi-quantitative data useful? A pilot study

Viral respiratory rapid multiplex PCR assays FilmArray® (FA) and ePlex® (eP) provide qualitative results which may not reflect clinical relevance. In a pilot study, we report retrospectively whether the semi-quantitative PCR assay R-GENE® would have facilitated clinical interpretation. Forty-four patients were hospitalized for various respiratory manifestations; all of them have benefited from a respiratory sample during acute symptoms. Among the 44 patients, FA detected 23 positive samples including 31 viruses, 26 of them gave high or moderate R-GENE® scores (cycle threshold < 35), and all but one were consistent with clinical history. Semi-quantitative scores would have allowed for critical interpretation of the results; those are a key additional element for an optimal exploitation of the rapid multiplex PCR assays power.

Asymptomatic Bordetella pertussis infections in a longitudinal cohort of young African infants and their mothers

Recent pertussis resurgence in numerous countries may be driven by asymptomatic infections. Most pertussis surveillance studies are cross-sectional and cannot distinguish asymptomatic from pre-symptomatic infections. Longitudinal surveillance could overcome this barrier, providing more information about the true burden of pertussis at the population level. Here we analyze 17,442 nasopharyngeal samples from a longitudinal cohort of 1320 Zambian mother/infant pairs. Our analysis has two elements. First, we demonstrate that the full range of IS481 qPCR CT values provides insight into pertussis epidemiology, showing concordance of low and high CT results over time, within mother/infant pairs, and in relation to symptomatology. Second, we exploit these full-range qPCR data to demonstrate a high incidence of asymptomatic pertussis, including among infants. Our results demonstrate a wider burden of pertussis infection than we anticipated in this population, and expose key limitations of threshold-based interpretation of qPCR results in infectious disease surveillance.

Evolution of human respiratory virus epidemics

Background: Pathogens are often assumed to evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and the overall disease burden. Considerable effort has been invested towards developing a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium. Results: We reveal kinetic constraints whereby variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are often constrained by the host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. These results agree with previous work demonstrating an increase in virulence for smallpox and further predict that SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. Herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with similar life history traits might be unachievable without vaccination. However, partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect on the epidemic dynamics not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by changing the evolutionary trajectory of moderate CFR viruses towards reduced CFR.

Evolution of human respiratory virus epidemics

Background: It is often assumed that pathogens evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is highly desirable to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and overall disease burden into the future. Considerable effort has been invested towards the development of a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium (when it exists). Results: We reveal kinetic constraints where the variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are likely often constrained by host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. Our findings imply that, without continued public health intervention, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. The existence of a parameter regime admitting endemic equilibrium suggests that herd immunity is unachievable. However, we demonstrate that even partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by potentially changing the evolutionary trajectory of the virus towards reduced CFR.

Assessment of Adherence to Post-exposure Prophylaxis with Oseltamivir in Healthcare Workers: A Retrospective Questionnaire-Based Study

Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for healthcare workers is one of the effective strategies for preventing nosocomial outbreaks of influenza. However, PEP adherence in healthcare workers is rarely analysed, and no strategies have been established to improve adherence to PEP for healthcare workers. We aimed to retrospectively analyse adherence to PEP and the factors associated with non-adherence in healthcare workers. A survey of 221 healthcare workers who were eligible for PEP at Tokushima University Hospital in the 2016/2017 season was conducted. Once-daily oseltamivir (75 mg for 10 d) was used as the PEP regimen. Of the 221 healthcare workers, 175 received PEP and were surveyed for adherence using a questionnaire. Of the 130 healthcare workers who responded to the questionnaire, 121 (93.1%) had been vaccinated. In this survey, 82 healthcare workers (63.1%) did not fully complete PEP. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that physicians (odds ratio: 4.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.08-10.25) and non-vaccination (odds ratio: 9.60, 95% CI: 1.12-82.25) were the factors for non-adherence to PEP. Of the 47 healthcare workers who responded to the item regarding reasons for non-adherence, 36 (76.6%) reported forgetting to take oseltamivir or discontinuing it due to a misguided self-decision that continuation of PEP was unnecessary, and 5 (10.6%) reported discontinuing treatment due to adverse effects. In conclusion, healthcare workers, particularly physicians, had low PEP adherence owing to forgetting or stopping to take oseltamivir due to a misguided self-decision. To obtain the maximum preventive effect of PEP, medication education should be provided to endorse PEP compliance.

Impact of biometeorological conditions and air pollution on influenza-like illnesses incidence in Warsaw

In order to assess the influence of atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) on the seasonally varying incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in the capital of Poland-Warsaw, we analysed time series of ILI reported for the about 1.75 million residents in total and for different age groups in 288 approximately weekly periods, covering 6 years 2013-2018. Using Poisson regression, we predicted ILI by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as biometeorological indicator, and by PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, as air quality measures accounting for lagged effects spanning up to 3 weeks. Excess ILI incidence after adjusting for seasonal and annual trends was calculated by fitting generalized additive models. ILI morbidity increased with rising PM concentrations, for both PM2.5 and PM10, and with cooler atmospheric conditions as indicated by decreasing UTCI. While the PM effect focused on the actual reporting period, the atmospheric influence exhibited a more evenly distributed lagged effect pattern over the considered 3-week period. Though ILI incidence adjusted for population size significantly declined with age, age did not significantly modify the effect sizes of both PM and UTCI. These findings contribute to better understanding environmental conditionings of influenza seasonality in a temperate climate. This will be beneficial to forecasting future dynamics of ILI and to planning clinical and public health resources under climate change scenarios.

Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course

The role that individuals with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 have in transmission of the virus is not well understood. Jones et al. investigated viral load in patients, comparing those showing few, if any, symptoms with hospitalized cases. Approximately 400,000 individuals, mostly from Berlin, were tested from February 2020 to March 2021 and about 6% tested positive. Of the 25,381 positive subjects, about 8% showed very high viral loads. People became infectious within 2 days of infection, and in hospitalized individuals, about 4 days elapsed from the start of virus shedding to the time of peak viral load, which occurred 1 to 3 days before the onset of symptoms. Overall, viral load was highly variable, but was about 10-fold higher in persons infected with the B.1.1.7 variant. Children had slightly lower viral loads than adults, although this difference may not be clinically significant.

Science, abi5273, this issue p. eabi5273

INTRODUCTION

Although post facto studies have revealed the importance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission from presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly symptomatic (PAMS) cases, the virological basis of their infectiousness remains largely unquantified. The reasons for the rapid spread of variant lineages of concern, such as B.1.1.7, have yet to be fully determined.

RATIONALE

Viral load (viral RNA concentration) in patient samples and the rate of isolation success of virus from clinical specimens in cell culture are the clinical parameters most directly relevant to infectiousness and hence to transmission. To increase our understanding of the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2, especially in PAMS cases and those infected with the B.1.1.7 variant, we analyzed viral load data from 25,381 German cases, including 9519 hospitalized patients, 6110 PAMS cases from walk-in test centers, 1533 B.1.1.7 variant infections, and the viral load time series of 4434 (mainly hospitalized) patients. Viral load results were then combined with estimated cell culture isolation probabilities, producing a clinical proxy estimate of infectiousness.

RESULTS

PAMS subjects had, at the first positive test, viral loads and estimated infectiousness only slightly less than hospitalized patients. Similarly, children were found to have mean viral loads only slightly lower (0.5 log₁₀ units or less) than those of adults and ~78% of the adult peak cell culture isolation probability. Eight percent of first-positive viral loads were 10⁹ copies per swab or higher, across a wide age range (mean 37.6 years, standard deviation 13.4 years), representing a likely highly infectious minority, one-third of whom were PAMS. Relative to non-B.1.1.7 cases, patients with the B.1.1.7 variant had viral loads that were higher by a factor of 10 and estimated cell culture infectivity that was higher by a factor of 2.6. Similar ranges of viral loads from B.1.1.7 and B.1.177 samples were shown to be capable of causing infection in Caco-2 cell culture. A time-course analysis estimates that a peak viral load of 10^8.1 copies per swab is reached 4.3 days after onset of shedding and shows that, across the course of infection, hospitalized patients have slightly higher viral loads than nonhospitalized cases, who in turn have viral loads slightly higher than PAMS cases. Higher viral loads are observed in first-positive tests of PAMS subjects, likely as a result of systematic earlier testing. Mean culture isolation probability declines to 0.5 at 5 days after peak viral load and to 0.3 at 10 days after peak viral load. We estimate a rate of viral load decline of 0.17 log₁₀ units per day, which, combined with reported estimates of incubation time and time to loss of successful cell culture isolation, suggests that viral load peaks 1 to 3 days before onset of symptoms (in symptomatic cases).

CONCLUSION

PAMS subjects who test positive at walk-in test centers can be expected to be approximately as infectious as hospitalized patients. The level of expected infectious viral shedding of PAMS people is of high importance because they are circulating in the community at the time of detection of infection. Although viral load and cell culture infectivity cannot be translated directly to transmission probability, it is likely that the rapid spread of the B.1.1.7 variant is partly attributable to higher viral load in these cases. Easily measured virological parameters can be used, for example, to estimate transmission risk from different groups (by age, gender, clinical status, etc.), to quantify variance, to show differences in virus variants, to highlight and quantify overdispersion, and to inform quarantine, containment, and elimination strategies.

Two elementary parameters for quantifying viral infection and shedding are viral load and whether samples yield a replicating virus isolate in cell culture. We examined 25,381 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Germany, including 6110 from test centers attended by presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly symptomatic (PAMS) subjects, 9519 who were hospitalized, and 1533 B.1.1.7 lineage infections. The viral load of the youngest subjects was lower than that of the older subjects by 0.5 (or fewer) log₁₀ units, and they displayed an estimated ~78% of the peak cell culture replication probability; in part this was due to smaller swab sizes and unlikely to be clinically relevant. Viral loads above 10⁹ copies per swab were found in 8% of subjects, one-third of whom were PAMS, with a mean age of 37.6 years. We estimate 4.3 days from onset of shedding to peak viral load (10^8.1 RNA copies per swab) and peak cell culture isolation probability (0.75). B.1.1.7 subjects had mean log₁₀ viral load 1.05 higher than that of non-B.1.1.7 subjects, and the estimated cell culture replication probability of B.1.1.7 subjects was higher by a factor of 2.6.

Duration of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infectivity: When Is It Safe to Discontinue Isolation?

Defining the duration of infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 has major implications for public health and infection control practice in healthcare facilities. Early in the pandemic, most hospitals required two negative RT-PCR tests before discontinuing isolation in patients with Covid-19. Many patients, however, have persistently positive RT-PCR tests for weeks to months following clinical recovery and multiple studies now indicate that persistently positive RT-PCRs generally do not reflect replication-competent virus. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be most contagious around the time of symptom onset and infectivity rapidly decreases thereafter to near-zero after about 10 days in mild-moderately ill patients and 15 days in severely-critically ill and immunocompromised patients. The longest interval associated with replication-competent virus thus far is 20 days from symptom onset. This review summarizes evidence-to-date on the duration of infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 and how this has informed evolving public health recommendations on when it is safe to discontinue isolation precautions.

Extensive Hospital In-Ward Clustering Revealed By Molecular Characterization of Influenza A Virus Infection

BACKGROUND

Nosocomial transmission of influenza A virus (InfA) infection is not fully recognized. The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of hospitalized patients with InfA infections during an entire season and to investigate in-ward transmission at a large, acute-care hospital.

METHODS

During the 2016-17 season, all hospitalized patients ≥18 years old with laboratory-verified (real-time polymerase chain reaction) InfA were identified. Cases were characterized according to age; sex; comorbidity; antiviral therapy; viral load, expressed as cycle threshold values; length of hospital stay; 30-day mortality; and whether the InfA infection met criteria for a health care-associated influenza A infection (HCAI). Respiratory samples positive for InfA that were collected at the same wards within 7 days were chosen for whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and a phylogenetic analysis was performed to detect clustering. For reference, concurrent InfA strains from patients with community-acquired infection were included.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 435 InfA cases, of which 114 (26%) met the HCAI criteria. The overall 30-day mortality rate was higher among patients with HCAI (9.6% vs 4.6% among non-HCAI patients), although the difference was not statistically significant in a multivariable analysis, where age was the only independent risk factor for death (P < .05). We identified 8 closely related clusters (involving ≥3 cases) and another 10 pairs of strains, supporting in-ward transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the in-ward transmission of InfA occurs frequently and that HCAI may have severe outcomes. WGS may be used for outbreak investigations, as well as for evaluations of the effects of preventive measures.

Heterogeneity in transmissibility and shedding SARS-CoV-2 via droplets and aerosols

Background

Which virological factors mediate overdispersion in the transmissibility of emerging viruses remains a long-standing question in infectious disease epidemiology.

Methods

Here, we use systematic review to develop a comprehensive dataset of respiratory viral loads (rVLs) of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1 and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We then comparatively meta-analyze the data and model individual infectiousness by shedding viable virus via respiratory droplets and aerosols.

Results

The analyses indicate heterogeneity in rVL as an intrinsic virological factor facilitating greater overdispersion for SARS-CoV-2 in the COVID-19 pandemic than A(H1N1)pdm09 in the 2009 influenza pandemic. For COVID-19, case heterogeneity remains broad throughout the infectious period, including for pediatric and asymptomatic infections. Hence, many COVID-19 cases inherently present minimal transmission risk, whereas highly infectious individuals shed tens to thousands of SARS-CoV-2 virions/min via droplets and aerosols while breathing, talking and singing. Coughing increases the contagiousness, especially in close contact, of symptomatic cases relative to asymptomatic ones. Infectiousness tends to be elevated between 1 and 5 days post-symptom onset.

Conclusions

Intrinsic case variation in rVL facilitates overdispersion in the transmissibility of emerging respiratory viruses. Our findings present considerations for disease control in the COVID-19 pandemic as well as future outbreaks of novel viruses.

Funding

Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant program, NSERC Senior Industrial Research Chair program and the Toronto COVID-19 Action Fund.

Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses.

Methods

Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits.

Results

Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase.

Conclusion

High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06028-4.

Symptoms, Infection Duration, and Hemagglutinin Inhibition Antibody Response in Influenza A Infections

BACKGROUND

Many influenza studies assume that symptomatic and asymptomatic cases have equivalent antibody responses.

METHODS

This study examines the relationship between influenza symptoms and serological response. Influenza-positive index cases and household members in Managua, Nicaragua, during 2012-2017 were categorized by symptom status.

RESULTS

Antibody response was assessed using hemagglutination inhibition assays (HAI). Among 510 cases, 74.5% had ≥4-fold increase in HAI antibodies, and 75.3% had febrile illness. In a logistic regression model, febrile cases had 2.17 times higher odds of a ≥4-fold titer rise compared to asymptomatic cases (95% confidence interval, 1.02-4.64).

CONCLUSIONS

Studies relying on serological assays may not generalize to asymptomatic infections.

Changing Contact Patterns Over Disease Progression: Nipah Virus as a Case Study

Contact patterns play a key role in disease transmission, and variation in contacts during the course of illness can influence transmission, particularly when accompanied by changes in host infectiousness. We used surveys among 1642 contacts of 94 Nipah virus case patients in Bangladesh to determine how contact patterns (physical and with bodily fluids) changed as disease progressed in severity. The number of contacts increased with severity and, for case patients who died, peaked on the day of death. Given transmission has only been observed among fatal cases of Nipah virus infection, our findings suggest that changes in contact patterns during illness contribute to risk of infection.

Detection of influenza virus in air samples of patient rooms

BACKGROUND

Understanding the transmission and dispersal of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) via aerosols is essential for the development of preventative measures in hospital environments and healthcare facilities.

METHODS

During the 2017-2018 influenza season, patients with confirmed influenza or RSV infections were enrolled. Room air samples were collected close (0.30 m) to and distant (2.20 m) from patients' heads. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to detect and quantify viral particles in the air samples. The plaque assay was used to determine the infectiousness of the detected viruses.

FINDINGS

Fifty-one air samples were collected from the rooms of 29 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza; 51% of the samples tested positive for influenza A virus (IAV). Among the IAV-positive patients, 65% were emitters (had at least one positive air sample), reflecting a higher risk of nosocomial transmission compared with non-emitters. The majority (61.5%) of the IAV-positive air samples were collected 0.3 m from a patient's head, while the remaining IAV-positive air samples were collected 2.2 m from a patient's head. The positivity rate of IAV in air samples was influenced by distance from the patient's head and day of sample collection after hospital admission. Only three patients with RSV infection were recruited and none of them were emitters.

CONCLUSION

Influenza virus can be aerosolized beyond 1 m in patient rooms, which is the distance considered to be safe by infection control practices. Further investigations are needed to determine the extent of infectivity of aerosolized virus particles.

Automated contact tracing: a game of big numbers in the time of COVID-19

One of the more widely advocated solutions for slowing down the spread of COVID-19 has been automated contact tracing. Since proximity data can be collected by personal mobile devices, the natural proposal has been to use this for automated contact tracing providing a major gain over a manual implementation. In this work, we study the characteristics of voluntary and automated contact tracing and its effectiveness for mapping the spread of a pandemic due to the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We highlight the infrastructure and social structures required for automated contact tracing to work. We display the vulnerabilities of the strategy to inadequate sampling of the population, which results in the inability to sufficiently determine significant contact with infected individuals. Of crucial importance will be the participation of a significant fraction of the population for which we derive a minimum threshold. We conclude that relying largely on automated contact tracing without population-wide participation to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can be counterproductive and allow the pandemic to spread unchecked. The simultaneous implementation of various mitigation methods along with automated contact tracing is necessary for reaching an optimal solution to contain the pandemic.

Why does the spread of COVID-19 vary greatly in different countries? Revealing the efficacy of face masks in epidemic prevention

The severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is highly contagious, and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by it has forced many countries to adopt 'lockdown' measures to prevent the spread of the epidemic through social isolation of citizens. Some countries proposed universal mask wearing as a protection measure of public health to strengthen national prevention efforts and to limit the wider spread of the epidemic. In order to reveal the epidemic prevention efficacy of masks, this paper systematically evaluates the experimental studies of various masks and filter materials, summarises the general characteristics of the filtration efficiency of isolation masks with particle size, and reveals the actual efficacy of masks by combining the volume distribution characteristics of human exhaled droplets with different particle sizes and the SARS-CoV-2 virus load of nasopharynx and throat swabs from patients. The existing measured data show that the filtration efficiency of all kinds of masks for large particles and extra-large droplets is close to 100%. From the perspective of filtering the total number of pathogens discharged in the environment and protecting vulnerable individuals from breathing live viruses, the mask has a higher protective effect. If considering the weighted average filtration efficiency with different particle sizes, the filtration efficiencies of the N95 mask and the ordinary mask are 99.4% and 98.5%, respectively. The mask can avoid releasing active viruses to the environment from the source of infection, thus maximising the protection of vulnerable individuals by reducing the probability of inhaling a virus. Therefore, if the whole society strictly implements the policy of publicly wearing masks, the risk of large-scale spread of the epidemic can be greatly reduced. Compared with the overall cost of social isolation, limited personal freedoms and forced suspension of economic activities, the inconvenience for citizens caused by wearing masks is perfectly acceptable.

COVID-19: Does the infectious inoculum dose-response relationship contribute to understanding heterogeneity in disease severity and transmission dynamics?

The variation in the speed and intensity of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and severity of the resulting COVID-19 disease are still imperfectly understood. We postulate a dose-response relationship in COVID-19, and that "the dose of virus in the initial inoculum" is an important missing link in understanding several incompletely explained observations in COVID-19 as a factor in transmission dynamics and severity of disease. We hypothesize that: (1) Viral dose in inoculum is related to severity of disease, (2) Severity of disease is related to transmission potential, and (3) In certain contexts, chains of severe cases can build up to severe local outbreaks, and large-scale intensive epidemics. Considerable evidence from other infectious diseases substantiates this hypothesis and recent evidence from COVID-19 points in the same direction. We suggest research avenues to validate the hypothesis. If proven, our hypothesis could strengthen the scientific basis for deciding priority containment measures in various contexts in particular the importance of avoiding super-spreading events and the benefits of mass masking.

Influenza A (H3) illness and viral aerosol shedding from symptomatic naturally infected and experimentally infected cases

BACKGROUND

It has long been known that nasal inoculation with influenza A virus produces asymptomatic to febrile infections. Uncertainty persists about whether these infections are sufficiently similar to natural infections for studying human-to-human transmission.

METHODS

We compared influenza A viral aerosol shedding from volunteers nasally inoculated with A/Wisconsin/2005 (H3N2) and college community adults naturally infected with influenza A/H3N2 (2012-2013), selected for influenza-like illness with objectively measured fever or a positive Quidel QuickVue A&B test. Propensity scores were used to control for differences in symptom presentation observed between experimentally and naturally infected groups.

RESULTS

Eleven (28%) experimental and 71 (86%) natural cases shed into fine particle aerosols (P < .001). The geometric mean (geometric standard deviation) for viral positive fine aerosol samples from experimental and natural cases was 5.1E + 3 (4.72) and 3.9E + 4 (15.12) RNA copies/half hour, respectively. The 95th percentile shedding rate was 2.4 log10 greater for naturally infected cases (1.4E + 07 vs 7.4E + 04). Certain influenza-like illness-related symptoms were associated with viral aerosol shedding. The almost complete lack of symptom severity distributional overlap between groups did not support propensity score-adjusted shedding comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to selection bias, the natural and experimental infections had limited symptom severity distributional overlap precluding valid, propensity score-adjusted comparison. Relative to the symptomatic naturally infected cases, where high aerosol shedders were found, experimental cases did not produce high aerosol shedders. Studying the frequency of aerosol shedding at the highest observed levels in natural infections without selection on symptoms or fever would support helpful comparisons.

Evolution of Human Respiratory Virus Epidemics

BACKGROUND

While pathogens often evolve towards reduced virulence, many counterexamples are evident. When faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is highly desirable to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) into the future. Considerable effort has been invested towards the development of a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although these approaches accurately recapitulate some complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between mortality and infectivity. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens.

RESULTS

Using a compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity, we reveal kinetic constraints where the variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased virulence and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and Influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as Smallpox, are likely often constrained by host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR.

CONCLUSIONS

The evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in virulence should not be assumed. Our findings imply that, without continued public health intervention, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. The existence of a parameter regime admitting endemic equilibrium suggests that herd immunity is unachievable. However, we demonstrate that even partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by potentially changing the evolutionary trajectory of the virus towards reduced virulence.

Asymptomatic Bordetella pertussis infections in young African infants and their mothers identified within a longitudinal cohort

Despite long-standing vaccination programs, pertussis incidence has increased in numerous countries; transmission by asymptomatic individuals is a suspected driver of this resurgence. However, unequivocal evidence documenting asymptomatic infections in adults and children is lacking due, in part, to the cross-sectional nature of most pertussis surveillance studies. In addition, modern pertussis surveillance relies on quantitative PCR (qPCR) using fixed diagnostic thresholds to identify cases. To address this gap, we present a longitudinal analysis of 17,442 nasopharyngeal samples collected from a cohort of 1,320 Zambian mother/infant pairs. Using full-range cycle threshold (CT) values from IS481 qPCR assays, we document widespread asymptomatic infections among mothers and also, surprisingly, among young infants. From an initial group of eight symptomatic infants who tested positive by qPCR, we identify frequent contemporaneous subclinical infections in mothers. Within the full cohort, we observe strong temporal correlation between low- and high-intensity qPCR signals. We compute a single time-averaged score for each individual summarizing the evidence for pertussis infection (EFI), and show that EFI strongly clusters within mother/infant pairs, and is strongly associated with clinical symptomatology and antibiotic use. Overall, the burden of pertussis here is substantially underestimated when restricting diagnostic criteria to IS481 CT≤35. Rather, we find that full-range CT values provide valuable insights into pertussis epidemiology in this population, and illuminate the infection arc within individuals. These findings have significant implications for quantifying asymptomatic pertussis prevalence and its contribution to overall transmission. Our results also expose limitations of threshold-based interpretations of qPCR assays in infectious disease surveillance.

Asynchrony between virus diversity and antibody selection limits influenza virus evolution

Seasonal influenza viruses create a persistent global disease burden by evolving to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. New antigenic variants have a substantial selective advantage at the population level, but these variants are rarely selected within-host, even in previously immune individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that the temporal asynchrony between within-host virus exponential growth and antibody-mediated selection could limit within-host antigenic evolution. If selection for new antigenic variants acts principally at the point of initial virus inoculation, where small virus populations encounter well-matched mucosal antibodies in previously-infected individuals, there can exist protection against reinfection that does not regularly produce observable new antigenic variants within individual infected hosts. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for how virus antigenic evolution can be highly selective at the global level but nearly neutral within-host. They also suggest new avenues for improving influenza control.

CT and clinical assessment in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic patients with early SARS-CoV-2 in outbreak settings

Objectives

The early infection dynamics of patients with SARS-CoV-2 are not well understood. We aimed to investigate and characterize associations between clinical, laboratory, and imaging features of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2.

Methods

Seventy-four patients with RT-PCR-proven SARS-CoV-2 infection were asymptomatic at presentation. All were retrospectively identified from 825 patients with chest CT scans and positive RT-PCR following exposure or travel risks in outbreak settings in Japan and China. CTs were obtained for every patient within a day of admission and were reviewed for infiltrate subtypes and percent with assistance from a deep learning tool. Correlations of clinical, laboratory, and imaging features were analyzed and comparisons were performed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression.

Results

Forty-eight of 74 (65%) initially asymptomatic patients had CT infiltrates that pre-dated symptom onset by 3.8 days. The most common CT infiltrates were ground glass opacities (45/48; 94%) and consolidation (22/48; 46%). Patient body temperature (p < 0.01), CRP (p < 0.01), and KL-6 (p = 0.02) were associated with the presence of CT infiltrates. Infiltrate volume (p = 0.01), percent lung involvement (p = 0.01), and consolidation (p = 0.043) were associated with subsequent development of symptoms.

Conclusions

COVID-19 CT infiltrates pre-dated symptoms in two-thirds of patients. Body temperature elevation and laboratory evaluations may identify asymptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 CT infiltrates at presentation, and the characteristics of CT infiltrates could help identify asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 patients who subsequently develop symptoms. The role of chest CT in COVID-19 may be illuminated by a better understanding of CT infiltrates in patients with early disease or SARS-CoV-2 exposure.

Key Points

• Forty-eight of 74 (65%) pre-selected asymptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 had abnormal chest CT findings.

• CT infiltrates pre-dated symptom onset by 3.8 days (range 1–5).

• KL-6, CRP, and elevated body temperature identified patients with CT infiltrates. Higher infiltrate volume, percent lung involvement, and pulmonary consolidation identified patients who developed symptoms.

Detection of influenza virus in air samples of patient rooms

BACKGROUND

Understanding the transmission and dispersal of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) via aerosols is essential for the development of preventative measures in hospital environments and healthcare facilities.

METHODS

During the 2017-2018 influenza season, patients with confirmed influenza or RSV infections were enrolled. Room air samples were collected close (0.30 m) to and distant (2.20 m) from patients' heads. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to detect and quantify viral particles in the air samples. The plaque assay was used to determine the infectiousness of the detected viruses.

FINDINGS

Fifty-one air samples were collected from the rooms of 29 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza; 51% of the samples tested positive for influenza A virus (IAV). Among the IAV-positive patients, 65% were emitters (had at least one positive air sample), reflecting a higher risk of nosocomial transmission compared with non-emitters. The majority (61.5%) of the IAV-positive air samples were collected 0.3 m from a patient's head, while the remaining IAV-positive air samples were collected 2.2 m from a patient's head. The positivity rate of IAV in air samples was influenced by distance from the patient's head and day of sample collection after hospital admission. Only three patients with RSV infection were recruited and none of them were emitters.

CONCLUSION

Influenza virus can be aerosolized beyond 1 m in patient rooms, which is the distance considered to be safe by infection control practices. Further investigations are needed to determine the extent of infectivity of aerosolized virus particles.

Differences of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Shedding Duration in Sputum and Nasopharyngeal Swab Specimens Among Adult Inpatients With Coronavirus Disease 2019

BACKGROUND

The viral shedding duration of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has not been fully defined. Consecutive detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from respiratory tract specimens is essential for determining duration of virus shedding and providing evidence to optimize the clinical management of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

RESEARCH QUESTION

What are the shedding durations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the upper and lower respiratory tract specimens? What are their associated risk factors?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 68 patients with COVID-19 admitted to Wuhan Taikang Tongji Hospital and Huoshenshan Hospital from February 10, 2020, to March 20, 2020, were recruited. Consecutive SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection from paired specimens of nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) and sputum were carried out. The clinical characteristics of patients were recorded for further analysis.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected from NPSs in 48 patients (70.6%), and from sputum specimens in 30 patients (44.1%). The median duration of viral shedding from sputum specimens (34 days; interquartile range [IQR], 24-40) was significantly longer than from NPSs (19 days; IQR, 14-25; P < .001). Elderly age was an independent factor associated with prolonged virus shedding time of SARS-CoV-2 (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.01-2.93). It was noteworthy that in 9 patients, the viral RNA was detected in sputum after NPS turned negative. Chronic lung disease and steroids were associated with virus detection in sputum, and diabetes mellitus was associated with virus detection in both NPS and sputum.

INTERPRETATION

These findings may impact a test based clearance discharge criteria given patients with COVID-19 may shed virus longer in their lower respiratory tracts, with potential implication for prolonged transmission risk. In addition, more attention should be given to elderly patients who might have prolonged viral shedding duration.

Lack of Serologic Evidence of Infection Among Health Care Personnel and Other Contacts of First 2 Confirmed Patients With COVID-19 in Illinois, 2020

OBJECTIVES

Widespread global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), continues. Many questions remain about asymptomatic or atypical infections and transmission dynamics. We used comprehensive contact tracing of the first 2 confirmed patients in Illinois with COVID-19 and serologic SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing to determine whether contacts had evidence of undetected COVID-19.

METHODS

Contacts were eligible for serologic follow-up if previously tested for COVID-19 during an initial investigation or had greater-risk exposures. Contacts completed a standardized questionnaire during the initial investigation. We classified exposure risk as high, medium, or low based on interactions with 2 index patients and use of personal protective equipment (PPE). Serologic testing used a SARS-CoV-2 spike enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay on serum specimens collected from participants approximately 6 weeks after initial exposure to either index patient. The 2 index patients provided serum specimens throughout their illness. We collected data on demographic, exposure, and epidemiologic characteristics.

RESULTS

Of 347 contacts, 110 were eligible for serologic follow-up; 59 (17% of all contacts) enrolled. Of these, 53 (90%) were health care personnel and 6 (10%) were community contacts. Seventeen (29%) reported high-risk exposures, 15 (25%) medium-risk, and 27 (46%) low-risk. No participant had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The 2 index patients had antibodies detected at dilutions >1:6400 within 4 weeks after symptom onset.

CONCLUSIONS

In serologic follow-up of the first 2 known patients in Illinois with COVID-19, we found no secondary transmission among tested contacts. Lack of seroconversion among these contacts adds to our understanding of conditions (ie, use of PPE) under which SARS-CoV-2 infections might not result in transmission and demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing is a useful tool to verify epidemiologic findings.

Associations Between Relative Viral Load at Diagnosis and Influenza A Symptoms and Recovery

Background

Rapid point-of-care polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic tests generally provide a qualitative result of positive or negative only. Additional information about the relative viral load could be calculated. Such quantitative information might be useful for making treatment decisions.

Methods

We enrolled students at a university health center who presented with cough and 1 additional flu-like symptom from December 2016 to February 2017. Data were collected before, during, and 5 days after the clinic visit. All those enrolled in the study received a point-of-care PCR test (cobas Liat). For those patients that tested positive for influenza A, we investigated correlations between the relative viral load and measures of disease severity and recovery.

Results

One hundred thirty-five students tested positive for influenza A. We found a positive correlation between viral load and body temperature. Time since symptom onset seemed to have a negative correlation but was not statistically significant. We did not find any correlations between viral load and overall symptom severity or outcomes related to recovery.

Conclusions

Although we found a correlation between relative viral load and body temperature, for our study population of young, overall healthy adults, we did not find that relative viral load provided additional information that could help in determining treatment and disease outcomes. It could be that viral load does provide useful additional information for other groups of patients, such as young children or older adults. Further studies on those populations are warranted.

New applications of a portable isolation hood for use in several settings and as a clean hood

Background

We previously reported that we developed a compact and portable isolation hood that covers the top half of a patient sitting or lying in bed. The negative pressure inside the hood is generated by a fan-filter-unit (FFU) through which infectious aerosols from a patient are filtered. The outside area is kept clean which decreases the risk of nosocomial infections in hospital wards. We tried new applications of the hood.

Methods

The negative pressure hood was newly applied in an intensive care unit (ICU) as a place where a staff performs the practice of suctioning that generates much aerosol from the patient, as well as a waiting space for patients. Furthermore, the possibility that the hood can be converted to a positive pressure hood as a clean hood by switching the airflow direction of FFU was assessed. The cleaning efficacy of the inside of the hood was tested using an aerosolized cultured influenza virus tracer and an optimal airflow rate was determined according to the test results.

Results

The hood, named Barrihood, was found to be competent to be used (I) for tracheal suctioning in ICU, (II) as a waiting space for a child in a nursery who suddenly showed symptoms of the disease and waiting to be picked-up by the guardian, and (III) as a waiting space in a special outpatient clinic in a hospital for COVID-19 suspected cases to prevent dissemination of airborne pathogens. The positive pressure hood was also competent in keeping clean air quality that meets the standard class 100 of NASA's bio-clean room category.

Conclusions

The proposed new applications will broaden the range of the hood's usage. The isolation hood could be useful in many settings to protect people outside the hood from a patient inside, or to protect an individual inside from air particles outside the hood, such as airborne pathogens, allergens, or hazardous particulate matter like PM2.5.