Estimating a cost-effectiveness threshold for health care decision-making in South Africa

Potential Clinical and Economic Impacts of Cutbacks in the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Program in South Africa : A Modeling Analysis

BACKGROUND

Future U.S. congressional funding for the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) program is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical and economic impacts of abruptly scaling back PEPFAR funding ($460 million) from South Africa's total HIV budget ($2.56 billion) in 2024.

DESIGN

Model-based analysis of 100%, 50%, and 0% PEPFAR funding with proportional decreases in HIV diagnosis rates (26.0, 24.3, 22.6 per 100 person-years [PY]), 1-year treatment engagement (people with HIV [PWH] receiving/initiating antiretroviral therapy: 92.2%/80.4%, 87.1%/76.0%, 82.0%/71.5%), and primary prevention (4.0%, 2.2%, 0.5% reduction in incidence with no programming [1.24 per 100 PY]).

DATA SOURCES

Published HIV care continuum; PEPFAR funding estimates.

TARGET POPULATION

South African adults (HIV prevalence, 16.2%; incidence, 0.32 per 100 PY).

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Health care sector.

INTERVENTION

PEPFAR funded 100% (PEPFAR_100%), 50% (PEPFAR_50%), or 0% (PEPFAR_0%).

OUTCOME MEASURES

HIV infections, life expectancy, and lifetime costs (2023 U.S. dollars).

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

With current HIV programming (PEPFAR_100%), 1 190 000 new infections are projected over 10 years; life expectancy would be 61.42 years for PWH, with lifetime costs of $11 180 per PWH. Reduced PEPFAR funding (PEPFAR_50% and PEPFAR_0%) would add 286 000 and 565 000 new infections, respectively. PWH would lose 2.02 and 3.71 life-years with nominal lifetime cost reductions of $620 per PWH and $1140 per PWH that would be offset at the population level by more PWH requiring treatment for infection.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Countries with similar HIV prevalence and greater reliance on PEPFAR funding could experience disproportionately higher incremental infections and survival losses.

LIMITATION

Budget fungibility and exact programmatic implications of reducing PEPFAR funding are unknown.

CONCLUSION

Abrupt PEPFAR cutbacks would have immediate and long-term detrimental effects on epidemiologic and clinical HIV outcomes in South Africa.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening and Treating Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of a screening and treatment intervention approach for chronic HCV infection in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Using a decision tree and a validated Markov model, we estimated the lifetime costs and health effects of screening for and treating HCV infections from a healthcare perspective. We evaluated three screening strategies, namely the following: i. no screening; ii. screening among the general population; and iii. screening among high-risk groups. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated for the strategies that were not dominated. We used deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to explore the impacts of parameter uncertainty on cost effectiveness outcomes.

RESULTS

The strategy of screening among high-risk groups and treating with sofosbuvir/velpatasvir had an incremental cost of USD 1201 and incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of 2.01, yielding an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD 604 per QALY gained as compared to no screening. The ICER was below the 0.5 times the gross domestic product per capita parameter (USD 796), making the intervention potentially cost effective. The strategy to screen among the general population was dominated, because it costed more and resulted in fewer QALYs than its comparators.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for HCV among high-risk populations followed by treatment using sofosbuvir/velpatasvir is cost effective under the assumptions made in this study.

A cost-utility analysis of long-acting insulin analogues (detemir, glargine and degludec) for the treatment of adult type 1 diabetes in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) is a life-threatening condition that is managed with administered insulin. Intermediate- to long-acting insulin represents the basal insulin constituent of the total insulin used in treating T1DM. In South Africa, intermediate-acting Neutral Protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin has been the mainstay basal insulin recommended in the public sector, despite the availability of newer (ultra) long-acting insulin analogues. A cost-utility analysis of the newer long-acting insulin analogues insulins degludec, glargine U100, glargine U300 and detemir in comparison to current practice (NPH insulin) has yet to be performed in the South African public health sector context.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was carried out utilising Markov modelling. Long-acting insulins degludec, glargine and detemir were compared to NPH insulin in the model. For each comparator, two Markov states were created, one in which no complications occurred and another representing severe nocturnal hypoglycaemic events. Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained per patient year was the health outcome assessed over a one-year time horizon.

RESULTS

NPH insulin was the least costly and least effective; while Determir and Glargine U100 were extended and absolutely dominated respectively. The ICER for Glargine U300 in comparison to NPH was USD 40,104.91 per QALY gained, while Degludec was USD 64,831.20 per QALY gained in comparison to Glargine U300.

CONCLUSIONS

The ICERs of long acting insulins were considerably higher than South Africa's indicative cost-effectiveness threshold. The status quo of NPH insulin in the management of T1DM in adults remains the most cost-effective option for the South African public health sector.

Cost-effectiveness of a simplified acute malnutrition program: a secondary analysis of the OptiMA randomized clinical trial in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Acute malnutrition (AM) causes large loss of life and disability in children in Africa. Researchers are testing innovative approaches to increase the efficiency of treatment programs This paper presents results of a cost-effectiveness analysis of one such program in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) based on a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial Optimizing Treatment for Acute Malnutrition (OptiMA), conducted in DRC in 2018-20. A total of 896 children aged 6-59 months with a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <125 mm or with oedema were treated and followed for 6 months. The cost-effectiveness of OptiMA using ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) at a tapered dose was compared with the standard national program in which severe cases (SAM) received RUTF proportional to weight, and moderate cases (MAM) were referred to another clinic for a fixed dose regimen of ready-to-use supplementary food. Cost analysis from the provider perspective used data collected during the trial and from administrative records. Statistical differences were derived using t-tests. The mean cost per enrolled child under OptiMA was $123 [95% confidence interval (CI): 114-132], not statistically different from the standard group [$127 (95%CI: 118-136), P = 0.549], while treatment success (i.e. recovery to MUAC > 125 mm and no relapse for 6 months) under OptiMA was 9% higher (72 vs 63%, P = 0.004). Among children with SAM at enrollment, there was no significant difference in treatment success between OptiMA and standard care (70 vs 62%, P = 0.12), but OptiMA's mean cost per enrolled child was 23% lower ($128 vs $166, P < 0.0001). OptiMA was more effective at preventing progression to SAM among those enrolled with MAM (5 vs 16%, P < 0.0001), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $234 per progression to SAM prevented. Overall, OptiMA had significantly better outcomes and was no more expensive than standard care. Its adoption could enable more children to be successfully treated in contexts where therapeutic food products are scarce.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of integrated screening for non-communicable diseases in TB contacts

BACKGROUND

Integrating non-communicable disease (NCD) screening into TB household contact investigations may identify undiagnosed NCDs and reduce the burden of both conditions. However, evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of this approach is limited.

METHOD

We conducted a cross-sectional study in South Africa to assess patient and provider costs for NCD screening (hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, dyslipidaemia). Incremental costs per NCD case identified were calculated. Using a decision tree model, we estimated incremental costs per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted over 10 years from a healthcare perspective, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimated using the WHO prediction model.

RESULTS

The incremental cost was USD72.3 per contact screened and USD334.0 per NCD case identified. Integrated screening reduced mean 10-year CVD risk from 5.7% to 2.7% among contacts with NCDs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was USD27,043.6 per DALY averted, exceeding South Africa's threshold of USD3,708. Management of identified NCDs, mainly drug costs, comprised over 80% of total incremental costs. The ICER decreased in populations with a high risk for NCDs.

CONCLUSION

Integrated NCD screening was not cost-effective, mainly due to subsequent care costs. Prioritising individuals at high risk for NCDs can improve cost-effectiveness.

Economic Evaluation of Free Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmissions (PMTCT) Services to Non-South African Women Living in South Africa

Approximately 1.33 million pregnancies are recorded in South Africa annually. About 30% of all pregnant women are HIV positive, posing a serious risk to unborn children. However, effective interventions such as prevention of mother-to-child transmissions (PMTCT) services have been shown to significantly reduce the risk of mother-to-child or vertical transmission. Migrant women in South Africa face challenges in accessing [free] healthcare services. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of providing free PMTCT services to migrant women living in South Africa. We employed cost-effectiveness analysis methodology to establish the cost and outcomes (averted pediatric infections and averted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) associated with free PMTCT services for migrant women. The comparator was provision of only antenatal care (ANC) while the intervention was ANC + PMTCT services. A Microsoft Excel-based decision tree model was designed to achieve the study objectives. Data on costs and health outcomes for each intervention was sourced from the literature on HIV/AIDS. The prevalence-based study is conducted from a public sector healthcare payer perspective. Provision of ANC + PMTCT services to migrants will prevent 14 562 new infections among 52 762 HIV positive pregnant women. The estimated total expected cost of ANC + PMTCT service was US$52 889 per 1000 live births compared to US$191 000 for ANC only per 1000 live births. The expected cost for the do-nothing scenario was US$73 535 per 1000 live births. The expected health benefit (ie, averted DALYs) associated with do-nothing scenario, ANC, and ANC + PMTCT were 277, 265 and 76 DALYs, respectively. ANC + PMTCT service provision produces the lowest DALYs at lower cost thereby producing cost-saving of US$733/DALY averted per 1000 live births. Further, an average of US$1.5 million would be required annually to achieve 100% coverage of HIV+ migrant women. Therefore, provision of ANC and PMTCT services to migrant women is cost-effective when compared to not offering PMTCT services and allows the government to avoid the long-term cost of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision.

Cost thresholds for anticipated long-acting HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis products in Eastern and Southern Africa: a mathematical modelling study

INTRODUCTION

Affordable HIV prevention tools are needed in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA). Several promising long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis (LA-PrEP) products are available or in development. However, ESA settings face severe healthcare resource constraints. We aimed to estimate the threshold price at which LA-PrEP products could be cost-effective in three ESA settings.

METHODS

We adapted an agent-based model, EMOD-HIV, to simulate LA-PrEP (monthly oral, 2- and 6-monthly injectable) rollout in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Kenya. Due to uncertainties about LA-PrEP use, we examined a range of coverages (5%-20% of HIV-negative sexually active adults) and extents to which LA-PrEP use will be concentrated among those most at risk (prioritized rollout from higher- to lower-risk groups vs. uniform rollout among sexually active adults). To evaluate a 20-year commitment to LA-PrEP delivery, we assumed LA-PrEP was scaled up to target coverage from 2025 to 2030 and maintained at target levels before ending in 2045. We estimated maximum per-dose and per-year LA-PrEP costs that achieve cost-effectiveness (

RESULTS

Risk-prioritized LA-PrEP for 5% of adults was projected to avert 11-21% of HIV acquisitions across settings, with 3-5 times more HIV acquisitions averted and 3-5 times higher maximum cost compared to non-prioritized rollout. Six-monthly injectable PrEP supported the highest per-dose cost: in the scenario with the most cost-effective LA-PrEP use (5% risk-prioritized rollout), the maximum per-dose price in South Africa was $52.99 (95% CI: $48.82-$57.21), in Zimbabwe $14.64 (95% CI: $12.04-$17.38) and in western Kenya $7.50 (95% CI: $6.73-$8.27). For monthly oral PrEP, corresponding per-dose costs were $5.02 (95% CI: $4.67-$5.37), $1.45 (95% CI: $1.10-$1.79) and $0.87 (95% CI: $0.80-$0.93). Results were sensitive to eligible population and prioritization, and moderately sensitive to scale-up speed and product effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

LA-PrEP is likely to require reduced pricing and/or risk-prioritized rollout to be cost-effective in ESA.

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Key Words

• Africa
• HIV
• lenacapavir
• long‐acting
• modelling
• pre‐exposure prophylaxis

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MESH Headings

• Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis/economics
• Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis/methods
• Humans
• HIV Infections/prevention & control
• HIV Infections/economics
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Africa, Southern/epidemiology
• Anti-HIV Agents/economics
• Anti-HIV Agents/administration & dosage
• Female
• Adult
• Male
• Models, Theoretical
• Africa, Eastern
• Kenya

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Grants

• R01 AI179417 NIAID NIH HHS
• R01AI179417 US National Institutes of Health
• INV-038274 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
• Children's Investment Foundation Fund (CIFF)

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Affiliation(s)

David Kaftan Department of Population HealthNew York University Grossman School of MedicineNew YorkNew York10016USA
Monisha Sharma Department of Global HealthUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
Danielle Resar Clinton Health Access InitiativeBostonMassachusettsUSA
Masabho Milali Department of Population HealthNew York University Grossman School of MedicineNew YorkNew York10016USA
Edinah Mudimu University of South AfricaPretoriaSouth Africa
Linxuan Wu Department of Global HealthUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
Cory Arrouzet Department of Global HealthUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
Ingrida Platais Department of Population HealthNew York University Grossman School of MedicineNew YorkNew York10016USA
Hae‐Young Kim Department of Population HealthNew York University Grossman School of MedicineNew YorkNew York10016USA
Sarah Jenkins Clinton Health Access InitiativeBostonMassachusettsUSA
Anna Bershteyn Department of Population HealthNew York University Grossman School of MedicineNew YorkNew York10016USA

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Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of peritoneal dialysis and haemodialysis in South Africa

BACKGROUND

More than 800 million people are affected by chronic kidney disease (CKD) worldwide. In South Africa, the prevalence of CKD increased by 67% between 1999 and 2006. Haemodialysis (HD), peritoneal dialysis (PD), and kidney transplant are the three main modalities used for managing end stage kidney disease. The cost of these therapies poses a significant burden to the health care system in South Africa. The aim of this study is to determine the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of peritoneal dialysis versus haemodialysis from the societal perspective in South Africa.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of peritoneal dialysis versus haemodialysis. The model was developed in excel and populated with clinical evidence and cost data synthesized from the literature. The costs and outcomes were estimated over a 5-year time-horizon. The outcomes were presented as quality-adjusted life years. Cost effectiveness was estimated using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and the incremental net monetary benefit (INMB). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the robustness of the results. A budget impact model was constructed to estimate the impact of PD and HD over a 5 year period.

RESULTS

The total discounted costs per patient over 5 years were R788 384 for PD versus R1 227 708 for HD. The incremental cost for providing PD was estimated at -R438 875. The net QALYs for delivering PD compared to HD were estimated at -0.09. Cost effectiveness ratio for PD versus PD was R5 096 154/QALY. At a threshold of R38 500, PD provision has a 79% probability of being cost-effective relative to HD. The INMB was estimated at R328 574 for PD and R322 194 for HD indicating the cost-effectiveness of PD. The budget impact analysis showed that it would cost government approximately R25 billion over 5 years to treat all individuals eligible for KRT under the current scenario of 88% HD and 12% PD.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Africa, PD is shown to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of less than R38 500. A PD-preferred policy that considers clinical appropriateness and patients' values should be considered.

Estimating the Incremental Cost Per QALY Produced by the Spanish NHS: A Fixed-Effect Econometric Approach

BACKGROUND

Knowing the health opportunity costs of funding decisions is crucial to assess whether the health gains associated with new interventions are larger than the health losses imposed by the displacement of resources. Empirical estimates based on the effect of health spending on health outcomes have been proposed in several countries, including Spain, as a proxy to capture these opportunity costs. However, there is a need to regularly update existing health opportunity cost estimates and to explore the role of omitted variable bias in these estimations.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper is to provide an updated and refined estimate of the causal impact of health spending on health in Spain that can be translated into an estimate of the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year produced by the Spanish national health system.

METHODS

We applied fixed-effect models using data for 17 Spanish regions from 2002 until 2022 to estimate the impact of public health spending on health outcomes and explored the extent of omitted variable bias. Changes in these estimates over time were assessed and alternative specifications were tested.

RESULTS

Based on fixed-effect models with control variables, the estimated spending elasticity was 0.061, which translated into an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year of approximately €34,000. The bias-corrected elasticity was 0.075, with a corresponding incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year of €27,000. We found that the estimated impact of spending on health decreases when recent years of data are added, and that the extent of omitted variable bias appears to increase, particularly when adding the COVID-19 pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides an updated estimation of the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year produced by the Spanish national health system. The estimates provided can be easily updatable as new data become accessible, and the methods applied might be transferable to other settings with similar available data.

Use of Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds in Healthcare Public Policy: Progress and Challenges

The article offers a comparative analysis of the influence of cost-effectiveness thresholds in the decision-making processes in financing policies, coverage, and price regulation of health technologies in nine countries. We investigated whether countries used cost-effectiveness thresholds for public health policy decision making and found that few countries have adopted the cost-effectiveness threshold as an official criterion for financing, reimbursement, or pricing. However, in countries where it is applied, such as Thailand, the results have been very favorable in terms of minimizing health technology prices and ensuring the financial sustainability of the health system. Although the cost-effectiveness threshold has opportunities for improvement, particularly in certain institutional contexts and with adequate participation of the different strategic actors in the formulation of public policy, its potential use and added value are significant in various aspects.

Comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative type 2 diabetes monitoring intervals in resource limited settings

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) represents a growing disease burden in South Africa. While glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) testing is the gold standard for long-term blood glucose management, recommendations for HbA1c monitoring frequency are based on expert opinion. This study investigates the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative HbA1c monitoring intervals in the management of T2D. A Markov model with three health states (HbA1c <7%, HbA1c ≥ 7%, Dead) was used to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of alternative HbA1c monitoring intervals among patients with T2D, using a provider's perspective and a 3% discount rate. HbA1c monitoring strategies (three-monthly, four-monthly, six-monthly and annual tests) were evaluated with respect to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) assessing each comparator against a less costly, undominated alternative. The scope of costs included the direct medical costs of managing diabetes. Transition probabilities were obtained from routinely collected public sector HbA1c data, while health service utilization and health-related-quality-of-life (HRQoL) data were obtained from a local cluster randomized controlled trial. Other parameters were obtained from published studies. Robustness of findings was evaluated using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A South African indicative cost-effectiveness threshold of USD2665 was adopted. Annual and lifetime costs of managing diabetes increased with HbA1c monitoring, while increased monitoring provides higher QALYs and life years. For the overall cohort, the ICER for six-monthly vs annual monitoring was cost-effective (USD23 22.37 per QALY gained), whereas the ICER of moving from six-monthly to three-monthly monitoring was not cost effective (USD6437.79 per QALY gained). The ICER for four-monthly vs six-monthly monitoring was extended dominated. The sensitivity analysis showed that the ICERs were most sensitive to health service utilization rates. While the factors influencing glycaemic control are multifactorial, six-monthly monitoring is potentially cost-effective while more frequent monitoring could further improve patient HrQoL.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out in South Africa beginning in February 2021. In this study we retrospectively assessed the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination programme in its first two years of implementation.

METHOD

We modelled the costs, expressed in 2021 US$, and health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccination programme compared to a no vaccination programme scenario. The study was conducted from a public payer's perspective over two time-horizons - nine months (February to November 2021) and twenty-four months (February 2021 to January 2023). Health outcomes were estimated from a disease transmission model parameterised with data on COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths and were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA and PSA) were conducted to assess parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at US$1600 per DALY averted during the first study time horizon. The corresponding ICER for the second study period was estimated at US$1300 per DALY averted. When 85% of all excess deaths during these periods were included in the analysis, ICERs in the first and second study periods were estimated at US$1070 and US$660 per DALY averted, respectively. In the PSA, almost 100% of simulations fell below the estimated opportunity cost-based cost-effectiveness threshold for South Africa (US$2300 DALYs averted). COVID-19 vaccination programme cost per dose had the greatest impact on the ICERs.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme represented good value for money in the first two years of rollout.

Framework for developing cost-effectiveness analysis threshold: the case of Egypt

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analyses rarely offer useful insights to policy decisions unless their results are compared against a benchmark threshold. The cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) represents the maximum acceptable monetary value for achieving a unit of health gain. This study aimed to identify CET values on a global scale, provide an overview of using multiple CETs, and propose a country-specific CET framework specifically tailored for Egypt. The proposed framework aims to consider the globally identified CETs, analyze global trends, and consider the local structure of Egypt's healthcare system.

METHODS

We conducted a literature review to identify CET values, with a particular focus on understanding the basis of differentiation when multiple thresholds are present. CETs of different countries were reviewed from secondary sources. Additionally, we assembled an expert panel to develop a national CET framework in Egypt and propose an initial design. This was followed by a multistakeholder workshop, bringing together representatives of different governmental bodies to vote on the threshold value and finalize the recommended framework.

RESULTS

The average CET, expressed as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita across all countries, was 135%, with a range of 21 to 300%. Interestingly, while the absolute value of CET increased with a country's income level, the average CET/GDP per capita showed an inverse relationship. Some countries applied multiple thresholds based on disease severity or rarity. In the case of Egypt, the consensus workshop recommended a threshold ranging from one to three times the GDP per capita, taking into account the incremental relative quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gain. For orphan medicines, a CET multiplier between 1.5 and 3.0, based on the disease rarity, was recommended. A two-times multiplier was proposed for the private reimbursement threshold compared to the public threshold.

CONCLUSION

The CET values in most countries appear to be closely related to the GDP per capita. Higher-income countries tend to use a lower threshold as a percentage of their GDP per capita, contrasted with lower-income countries. In Egypt, experts opted for a multiple CET framework to assess the value of health technologies in terms of reimbursement and pricing.

Extended cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to improve uptake of diabetes services in South Africa

The rising prevalence of diabetes in South Africa (SA), coupled with significant levels of unmet need for diagnosis and treatment, results in high rates of diabetes-associated complications. Income status is a determinant of utilization of diagnosis and treatment services, with transport costs and loss of wages being key barriers to care. A conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme, targeted to compensate for such costs, may improve service utilization. We applied extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and used a Markov model to compare the costs, health benefits and financial risk protection (FRP) attributes of a CCT programme. A population was simulated, drawing from SA-specific data, which transitioned yearly through various health states, based on specific probabilities obtained from local data, over a 45-year time horizon. Costs and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were applied to each health state. Three CCT programme strategies were simulated and compared to a 'no programme' scenario: (1) covering diagnosis services only; (2) covering treatment services only; (3) covering both diagnosis and treatment services. Cost-effectiveness was reported as incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) using a cost-effectiveness threshold of USD3015 per DALY for SA, while FRP outcomes were reported as catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) cases averted. Distributions of the outcomes were reported by income quintile and sex. Covering both diagnosis and treatment services for the bottom two quintiles resulted in the greatest INMB (USD22 per person) and the greatest CHE cases averted. There were greater FRP benefits for women compared to men. A CCT programme covering diabetes diagnosis and treatment services was found to be cost-effective, when provided to the poorest 40% of the SA population. ECEA provides a useful platform for including equity considerations to inform priority setting and implementation policies in SA.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of a South African pregnancy support grant

Poverty among expectant mothers often results in sub-optimal maternal nutrition and inadequate antenatal care, with negative consequences on child health outcomes. South Africa has a child support grant that is available from birth to those in need. This study aims to determine whether a pregnancy support grant, administered through the extension of the child support grant, would be cost-effective compared to the existing child support grant alone. A cost-utility analysis was performed using a decision-tree model to predict the incremental costs (ZAR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by the pregnancy support grant over a 2-year time horizon. An ingredients-based approach to costing was completed from a governmental perspective. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The intervention resulted in a cost saving of R13.8 billion ($930 million, 95% CI: ZAR3.91 billion - ZAR23.2 billion/ $1.57 billion - $264 million) and averted 59,000 DALYs (95% CI: -6,400-110,000), indicating that the intervention is highly cost-effective. The primary cost driver was low birthweight requiring neonatal intensive care, with a disaggregated incremental cost of R31,800 ($2,149) per pregnancy. Mortality contributed most significantly to the DALYs accrued in the comparator (0.68 DALYs). The intervention remained the dominant strategy in the sensitivity analyses. The pregnancy support grant is a highly cost-effective solution for supporting expecting mothers and ensuring healthy pregnancies. With its positive impact on child health outcomes, there is a clear imperative for government to implement this grant. By investing in this program, cost savings could be leveraged. The implementation of this grant should be given high priority in public health and social policies.

Systematic review of the impact of health care expenditure on health outcome measures: implications for cost-effectiveness thresholds

OBJECTIVE

Empirical estimates of the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures may inform the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) for guiding funding decisions. This study aims to systematically review studies that estimated this, summarize and compare the estimates by country income level.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, York Research database, and [anonymized] for Reviews and Dissemination database from inception to 1 August 2023. For inclusion, a study had to be an original article, estimating the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures at a country level, and presented estimates, in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or disability-adjusted life year (DALY).

RESULTS

We included 18 studies with 385 estimates. The median (range) estimates were PPP$ 11,224 (PPP$ 223 - PPP$ 288,816) per QALY gained and PPP$ 5,963 (PPP$ 71 - PPP$ 165,629) per DALY averted. As ratios of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPPC), these estimates were 0.376 (0.041-182.840) and 0.318 (0.004-37.315) times of GDPPC, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The commonly used CET of GDPPC seems to be too high for all countries, but especially low-to-middle-income countries where the potential health losses from misallocation of the same money are greater.

REGISTRATION

The review protocol was published and registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020147276).

Modelling the Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A in South Africa

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the consideration of introducing routine hepatitis A vaccination into national immunization schedules for children ≥ 1 years old in countries with intermediate HAV endemicity. Recent data suggest that South Africa is transitioning from high to intermediate HAV endemicity, thus it is important to consider the impact and cost of potential routine hepatitis A vaccination strategies in the country. An age-structured compartmental model of hepatitis A transmission was calibrated with available data from South Africa, incorporating direct costs of hepatitis A treatment and vaccination. We used the calibrated model to evaluate the impact and costs of several childhood hepatitis A vaccination scenarios from 2023 to 2030. We assessed how each scenario impacted the burden of hepatitis A (symptomatic hepatitis A cases and mortality) as well as calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted as compared to the South African cost-effectiveness threshold. All costs and outcomes were discounted at 5%. For the modelled scenarios, the median estimated cost of the different vaccination strategies ranged from USD 1.71 billion to USD 2.85 billion over the period of 2023 to 2030, with the cost increasing for each successive scenario and approximately 39-52% of costs being due to vaccination. Scenario 1, which represented the administration of one dose of the hepatitis A vaccine in children < 2 years old, requires approximately 5.3 million vaccine doses over 2023-2030 and is projected to avert a total of 136,042 symptomatic cases [IQR: 88,842-221,483] and 31,106 [IQR: 22,975-36,742] deaths due to hepatitis A over the period of 2023 to 2030. The model projects that Scenario 1 would avert 8741 DALYs over the period of 2023 to 2030; however, it is not cost-effective against the South African cost-effectiveness threshold with an ICER per DALY averted of USD 21,006. While Scenario 3 and 4 included the administration of more vaccine doses and averted more symptomatic cases of hepatitis A, these scenarios were absolutely dominated owing to the population being infected before vaccination through the mass campaigns at older ages. The model was highly sensitive to variation of access to liver transplant in South Africa. When increasing the access to liver transplant to 100% for the baseline and Scenario 1, the ICER for Scenario 1 becomes cost-effective against the CET (ICER = USD 2425). Given these findings, we recommend further research is conducted to understand the access to liver transplants in South Africa and better estimate the cost of liver transplant care for hepatitis A patients. The modelling presented in this paper has been used to develop a user-friendly application for vaccine policy makers to further interrogate the model outcomes and consider the costs and benefits of introducing routine hepatitis A vaccination in South Africa.

Willingness to pay for cancer prevention versus treatment in China: implications for cost-effectiveness threshold

BACKGROUND

Empirical support for the appropriate cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) in China remains sparse.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for cancer prevention and treatment from the perspective of healthcare policy-makers (i.e. supply side) and to investigate whether there is a difference between the estimated WTP in two scenarios.

METHODS

We conducted a web-based survey from May to July 2022 among experts who offering consultation to the government. We surveyed 79 experts from a national think-tank (84.81% response rate) using contingent valuation method, a method for estimating the monetary value that individuals place on a non-market service.

RESULTS

The mean WTP for two scenarios were estimated at 1.29 times of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China and 1.90 times of per capita GDP, respectively. There was a difference between the WTP in the two scenarios and the WTP for treatment was significantly higher than prevention.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that though there is a smaller gap between the two scenarios in China as compared to other countries, the WTP may vary under different scenarios. So there's a need to further refine the development of CET by adding parameters like prevention instead of defining one universal threshold.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness threshold of advanced non-small cell lung cancer in China using mean opportunity cost and contingent valuation method

OBJECTIVES

Monetizing health has sparked controversy and has implications for pricing strategies of emerging health technologies. Medical insurance payers typically set up thresholds for quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gains based on health productivity and budget affordability, but they rarely consider patient willingness-to-pay (WTP). Our study aims to compare Chinese payer threshold and patient WTP toward QALY gain of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to inform a potential inclusion of patient WTP under more complex decision-making scenarios.

METHODS

A regression model was constructed with cost as the independent variable and QALY as the dependent variable, where the regression coefficients reflect mean opportunity cost, and by transforming these coefficients, the payer threshold can be obtained. Patient WTP was elicited through a contingent valuation method survey. The robustness of the findings was examined through sensitivity analyses of model parameters and patient heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The payer mean threshold in the base-case was estimated at 150,962 yuan (1.86 times per capita GDP, 95% CI 144,041-159,204). The two scenarios analysis generated by different utility inputs yielded thresholds of 112,324 yuan (1.39 times per capita GDP) and 111,824 yuan (1.38 times per capita GDP), respectively. The survey included 85 patients, with a mean WTP of 148,443 yuan (1.83 times per capita GDP, 95% CI 120,994-175,893) and median value was 106,667 yuan (1.32 times the GDP per capita). Due to the substantial degree of dispersion, the median was more representative. The payer threshold was found to have a high probability (98.5%) of falling within the range of 1-2 times per capita GDP, while the robustness of patient WTP was relatively weak.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, a country with a copayment system, payer threshold was higher than patient WTP, indicating that medical insurance holds significant decision-making authority, thus temporarily negating the need to consider patient WTP.

Economic Evaluation of Rotavirus Vaccination in Children Aged Under Five Years in South Africa

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Evidence on the economic value of rotavirus vaccines in middle-income countries is limited. We aimed to model the implementation of three vaccines (human rotavirus, live, attenuated, oral vaccine [HRV, 2 doses]; rotavirus vaccine, live, oral, pentavalent [HBRV, 3 doses] and rotavirus vaccine, live attenuated oral, freeze-dried [BRV-PV, 3 doses] presented in 1-dose and 2-dose vials) into the South African National Immunisation Programme.

METHODS

Cost and cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted to compare three rotavirus vaccines using a static, deterministic, population model in children aged <5 years in South Africa from country payer and societal perspectives. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of uncertainty in model inputs.

RESULTS

The human rotavirus, live, attenuated, oral vaccine (HRV) was associated with cost savings versus HBRV from both perspectives, and versus BRV-PV 1-dose vial from the societal perspective. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, HRV was estimated to avoid 1,107 home care rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) events, 247 medical visits, 35 hospitalisations, and 4 RVGE-related deaths versus HBRV and BRV-PV. This translated to 73 quality-adjusted life years gained. HRV was associated with lower costs versus HBRV from both payer (-$3.9M) and societal (-$11.5M) perspectives and versus BRV-PV 1-dose vial from the societal perspective (-$3.8M), dominating those options. HRV was associated with higher costs versus BRV-PV 1-dose vial from the payer perspective and versus BRV-PV 2‑dose vial from both payer and societal perspectives (ICERs: $51,834, $121,171, and $16,717, respectively), exceeding the assumed cost-effectiveness threshold of 0.5 GDP per capita.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination with a 2-dose schedule of HRV may lead to better health outcomes for children in South Africa compared with the 3-dose schedule rotavirus vaccines.

Cost-effectiveness of dental caries prevention strategies in South African schools

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, an estimated 85% of the population relies on the public sector for oral health services. With poor infrastructure and inadequate personnel, over 80% of children with dental caries remain untreated. To reduce this burden of disease, one key goal is to promote good oral health and address oral diseases through prevention, screening, and treatment among children. While all policies have been proven to be effective in the control and prevention of dental caries, it is unclear which of those strategies provide value for money. This study evaluated five caries preventative strategies in terms of the cost and benefits among South African school children.

METHODS

The study uses a hypothetical South African population of school aged learners aged 5-15. The context and insights of the strategies utilized at the schools were informed by data from both grey and published literature. Using Markov modeling techniques, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of Acidulated Phosphate Fluoride (APF) application, atraumatic restorative treatment (ART), sugar-reduction and fissure sealants. Markov model was used to depict the movement of a hypothetical patient cohort between different health states over time. We assessed both health outcomes and costs of various interventions. The health outcome metric was measured as the number of Decayed, Missing, Filled Tooth (DMFT). The net monetary benefit was then used to determine which intervention was most cost-effective.

RESULTS

The results showed that school-based caries prevention strategies are cost-effective compared to the status quo of doing nothing. The average cost per learner over the 10-year period ranged from ZAR4380 to approx. ZAR7300 for the interventions considered. The total costs (including screening) associated with the interventions and health outcome (DMFT averted) were: sugar reduction (ZAR91,380, DFMT: 63,762), APF-Gel (ZAR54 million, DMFT: 42,010), tooth brushing (ZAR72.8 million, DMFT: 74,018), fissure sealant (ZAR44.63 million, DMFT: 100,024), and ART (ZAR45 million, DMFT: 144,035). The net monetary benefits achieved for APF-Gel, sugar reduction, tooth brushing, fissure sealant and ART programs were ZAR1.56, ZAR2.45, ZAR2.78, ZAR3.81, and ZAR5.55 billion, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Based on the net monetary benefit, ART, fissure sealant and sugar-reduction appear to be the most cost-effective strategies for preventing caries in South Africa. In a resource-scarce setting such as South Africa, where there is no fluoridation of drinking water, this analysis can inform decisions about service packages for oral health.

Economic evaluation of self-help group interventions for health in LMICs: a scoping review

This scoping review aims to identify and critically appraise published economic evaluations of self-help group (SHG) interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that seek to improve health and potentially also non-health outcomes. Through a systematic search of MEDLINE ALL (Ovid), EMBASE Ovid, PsychINFO, EconLit (Ovid) and Global Index Medicus, we identified studies published between 2014 and 2020 that were based in LMICs, included at least a health outcome, estimated intervention costs and reported the methods used. We critically analysed whether the methods employed can meaningfully inform decisions by ministries of health and other sectors, including donors, regarding whether to fund such interventions, and prioritized the aspects of evaluations that support decision-making and cross-sectoral decision-making especially. Nine studies met our inclusion criteria. Randomized controlled trials were the most commonly used vehicle to collect data and to establish a causal effect across studies. While all studies clearly stated one or more perspectives justifying the costs and effects that are reported, few papers clearly laid out the decision context or the decision maker(s) informed by the study. The latter is required to inform which costs, effects and opportunity costs are relevant to the decision and should be included in the analysis. Costs were typically reported from the provider or health-care sector perspective although other perspectives were also employed. Four papers reported outcomes in terms of a generic measure of health. Contrary to expectation, no studies reported outcomes beyond health. Our findings suggest limitations in the extent to which published studies are able to inform decision makers around the value of implementing SHG interventions in their particular context. Funders can make better informed decisions when evidence is presented using a cross-sectoral framework.

Promises and challenges of a decentralized CAR T-cell manufacturing model

Autologous chimeric antigen receptor-modified T-cell (CAR T) products have demonstrated un-precedent efficacy in treating many relapsed/refractory B-cell and plasma cell malignancies, leading to multiple commercial products now in routine clinical use. These positive responses to CAR T therapy have spurred biotech and big pharma companies to evaluate innovative production methods to increase patient access while maintaining adequate quality control and profitability. Autologous cellular therapies are, by definition, manufactured as single patient batches, and demand has soared for manufacturing facilities compliant with current Good Manufacturing Practice (cGMP) regulations. The use of a centralized production model is straining finite resources even in developed countries in North America and the European Union, and patient access is not feasible for most of the developing world. The idea of having a more uniform availability of these cell therapy products promoted the concept of point-of-care (POC) manufacturing or decentralized in-house production. While this strategy can potentially decrease the cost of manufacturing, the challenge comes in maintaining the same quality as currently available centrally manufactured products due to the lack of standardized manufacturing techniques amongst institutions. However, academic medical institutions and biotech companies alike have forged ahead innovating and adopting new technologies to launch clinical trials of CAR T products produced exclusively in-house. Here we discuss POC production of CAR T products.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of economic strengthening and parenting support for preventing violence against adolescents in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa: An economic modelling study using non-randomised data

There is limited evidence around the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce violence against children in low- and middle-income countries. We used a decision-analytic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three intervention scenarios for reducing adolescent emotional, physical, and sexual abuse in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. The intervention scenarios were: 1) Community grant outreach to link households to South Africa's Child Support Grant (CSG) if they are eligible, but not receiving it; 2) Group-based parenting support; and 3) Group-based parenting support 'plus' linkage to the CSG. We estimated average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) for intervention scenarios over a ten-year time horizon, and compared them to a South Africa-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (USD3390). Health effects were expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Our model considered four combinations of routine service versus trial-based costing, and population-average versus high prevalence of violence. Under routine service costing, ACERs for grant outreach and parenting support were below the WTP threshold when considering a population-average prevalence of violence USD2850 (Lower: USD1840-Upper: USD10,500) and USD2620 (USD1520-USD9800) per DALY averted, respectively; and a high prevalence of violence USD1320 (USD908-USD5180) and USD1340 (USD758-USD4910) per DALY averted, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness of parenting support plus grant linkage relative to parenting support alone was USD462 (USD346-USD1610) and USD225 (USD150-USD811) per DALY averted at a population-average and high prevalence of violence, respectively. Under trial-based costing, only the ACER for grant outreach was below the WTP threshold when considering a high prevalence of violence USD2580 (USD1640-USD9370) per DALY averted. Confidence intervals for all ACERs crossed the WTP threshold. In conclusion, grant outreach and parenting support are likely to be cost-effective intervention scenarios for reducing violence against adolescents if they apply routine service costing and reach high risk groups. Combining parenting support with grant linkage is likely to be more cost-effective than parenting support alone.

The Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Clinic-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for People With HIV, Depression, and Virologic Failure in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Depression affects 25%-30% of people with HIV (PWH) in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and is associated with both antiretroviral therapy (ART) nonadherence and increased mortality. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of task-shifted, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for PWH with diagnosed depression and virologic failure from a randomized trial in RSA.

SETTING

RSA.

METHODS

Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model, we simulated both trial strategies: enhanced treatment as usual (ETAU) and ETAU plus CBT for ART adherence and depression (CBT-AD; 8 sessions plus 2 follow-ups). In the trial, viral suppression at 1 year was 20% with ETAU and 32% with CBT-AD. Model inputs included mean initial age (39 years) and CD4 count (214/μL), ART costs ($7.5-22/mo), and CBT costs ($29/session). We projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs: $/QALY [discounted 3%/yr]; cost-effectiveness threshold: ≤$2545/QALY [0.5× per capita GDP]). In sensitivity analyses, we determined how input parameter variation affected cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Model-projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression were 18.9% and 8.7% with ETAU and 21.2% and 9.7% with CBT-AD, respectively. Compared with ETAU, CBT-AD would increase discounted life expectancy from 4.12 to 4.68 QALYs and costs from $6210/person to $6670/person (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $840/QALY). CBT-AD would remain cost-effective unless CBT-AD cost >$70/session and simultaneously improved 1-year viral suppression by ≤4% compared with ETAU.

CONCLUSIONS

CBT for PWH with depression and virologic failure in RSA could improve life expectancy and be cost-effective. Such targeted mental health interventions should be integrated into HIV care.

Time to change the way we think about tuberculosis infection prevention and control in health facilities: insights from recent research

In clinical settings where airborne pathogens, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis, are prevalent, they constitute an important threat to health workers and people accessing healthcare. We report key insights from a 3-year project conducted in primary healthcare clinics in South Africa, alongside other recent tuberculosis infection prevention and control (TB-IPC) research. We discuss the fragmentation of TB-IPC policies and budgets; the characteristics of individuals attending clinics with prevalent pulmonary tuberculosis; clinic congestion and patient flow; clinic design and natural ventilation; and the facility-level determinants of the implementation (or not) of TB-IPC interventions. We present modeling studies that describe the contribution of M. tuberculosis transmission in clinics to the community tuberculosis burden and economic evaluations showing that TB-IPC interventions are highly cost-effective. We argue for a set of changes to TB-IPC, including better coordination of policymaking, clinic decongestion, changes to clinic design and building regulations, and budgeting for enablers to sustain implementation of TB-IPC interventions. Additional research is needed to find the most effective means of improving the implementation of TB-IPC interventions; to develop approaches to screening for prevalent pulmonary tuberculosis that do not rely on symptoms; and to identify groups of patients that can be seen in clinic less frequently.

Role of socio-economic research in developing, delivering and scaling new crop varieties: the case of staple crop biofortification

The CGIAR biofortification program, HarvestPlus, was founded with the aim of improving the quality of diets through micronutrient-dense varieties of staple food crops. Implemented in four phases - discovery, development, delivery and scaling - the program was designed to be interdisciplinary, with plant breeding R&D supported by nutrition and socio-economic research. This paper explains the need, use and usefulness of socio-economic research in each phase of the program. Ex ante and ex post benefit-cost analyses facilitated fundraising for initial biofortification R&D and implementation in each subsequent phase, as well as encouraged other public, private, and civil society and non-governmental organizations to take on and mainstream biofortification in their crop R&D, policies, and programs. Socio-economics research helped guide plant breeding by identifying priority micronutrient- crop- geography combinations for maximum impact. Health impacts of biofortification could be projected both by using empirical results obtained through randomized controlled bioefficacy trials conducted by nutritionists, and through farmer-adoption models estimating impact at scale. Farmer and consumer surveys and monitoring systems provided the underlying information for estimating farmer adoption models and helped understand input/output markets, farmer and consumer preferences, and additional opportunities and challenges -all of which informed crop breeding and delivery activities, while building the knowledge base for catalyzing the scaling of biofortification.

The Value-of-Information and Value-of-Implementation from Clinical Trials of Diagnostic Tests for HIV-Associated Tuberculosis: A Modeling Analysis

Objectives. Conventional value-of-information (VOI) analysis assumes complete uptake of an optimal decision. We employed an extended framework that includes value-of-implementation (VOM)-the benefit of encouraging adoption of an optimal strategy-and estimated how future trials of diagnostic tests for HIV-associated tuberculosis could improve public health decision making and clinical and economic outcomes. Methods. We evaluated the clinical outcomes and costs, given current information, of 3 tuberculosis screening strategies among hospitalized people with HIV in South Africa: sputum Xpert (Xpert), sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM), and sputum Xpert plus the newer, more sensitive, and costlier urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). We projected the incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) of decision making based on results of a trial comparing mortality with each strategy, rather than decision making based solely on current knowledge of FujiLAM's improved diagnostic performance. We used a validated microsimulation to estimate VOI (the INMB of reducing parameter uncertainty before decision making) and VOM (the INMB of encouraging adoption of an optimal strategy). Results. With current information, adopting Xpert+FujiLAM yields 0.4 additional life-years/person compared with current practices (assumed 50% Xpert and 50% Xpert+AlereLAM). While the decision to adopt this optimal strategy is unaffected by information from the clinical trial (VOI = $ 0 at $3,000/year-of-life saved willingness-to-pay threshold), there is value in scaling up implementation of Xpert+FujiLAM, which results in an INMB (representing VOM) of $650 million over 5 y. Conclusions. Conventional VOI methods account for the value of switching to a new optimal strategy based on trial data but fail to account for the persuasive value of trials in increasing uptake of the optimal strategy. Evaluation of trials should include a focus on their value in reducing barriers to implementation.

Highlights

In conventional VOI analysis, it is assumed that the optimal decision will always be adopted even without a trial. This can potentially lead to an underestimation of the value of trials when adoption requires new clinical trial evidence. To capture the influence that a trial may have on decision makers' willingness to adopt the optimal decision, we also consider value-of-implementation (VOM), a metric quantifying the benefit of new study information in promoting wider adoption of the optimal strategy. The overall value-of-a-trial (VOT) includes both VOI and VOM.Our model-based analysis suggests that the information obtained from a trial of screening strategies for HIV-associated tuberculosis in South Africa would have no value, when measured using traditional methods of VOI assessment. A novel strategy, which includes the urine FujiLAM test, is optimal from a health economic standpoint but is underutilized. A trial would reduce uncertainties around downstream health outcomes but likely would not change the optimal decision. The high VOT (nearly $700 million over 5 y) lies solely in promoting uptake of FujiLAM, represented as VOM.Our results highlight the importance of employing a more comprehensive approach for evaluating prospective trials, as conventional VOI methods can vastly underestimate their value. Trialists and funders can and should assess the VOT metric instead when considering trial designs and costs. If VOI is low, the VOM and cost of a trial can be compared with the benefits and costs of other outreach programs to determine the most cost-effective way to improve uptake.

Cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Colon cancer incidence is rising in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resource limitations and cost often dictate treatment decisions. In this study, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer treatment in South Africa (ZA) and illustrate how such analyses can inform cancer treatment recommendations in a LMIC.

METHODS

We created a decision-analytic Markov model to compare lifetime costs and outcomes for patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer treated with three adjuvant chemotherapy regimens in a public hospital in ZA: capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) for 3 and 6 months, and capecitabine for 6 months, compared to no adjuvant treatment. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in international dollars (I$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold equal to the 2021 ZA gross domestic product per capita (I$13,764/DALY averted).

RESULTS

CAPOX for 3 months was cost-effective for both patients with high-risk stage II and patients with stage III colon cancer (ICER = I$250/DALY averted and I$1042/DALY averted, respectively), compared to no adjuvant chemotherapy. In subgroup analyses of patients by tumor stage and number of positive lymph nodes, for patients with high-risk stage II colon cancer and T4 tumors, and patients with stage III colon cancer with T4 or N2 disease. CAPOX for 6 months was cost-effective and the optimal strategy. The optimal strategy in other settings will vary by local WTP thresholds. Decision analytic tools can be used to identify cost-effective cancer treatment strategies in resource-constrained settings.

CONCLUSION

Colon cancer incidence is increasing in low- and middle-income countries, including South Africa, where resource constraints can impact treatment decisions. This cost-effectiveness study evaluates three systemic adjuvant chemotherapy options, compared to surgery alone, for patients in South African public hospitals after surgical resection for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer. Doublet adjuvant chemotherapy (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) for 3 months is the cost-effective strategy and should be recommended in South Africa.

Determining the efficiency path to universal health coverage: cost-effectiveness thresholds for 174 countries based on growth in life expectancy and health expenditures

BACKGROUND

Assessment of the efficiency of interventions is paramount to achieving equitable health-care systems. One key barrier to the widespread use of economic evaluations in resource allocation decisions is the absence of a widely accepted method to define cost-effectiveness thresholds to judge whether an intervention is cost-effective in a particular jurisdiction. We aimed to develop a method to estimate cost-effectiveness thresholds on the basis of health expenditures per capita and life expectancy at birth and empirically derive these thresholds for 174 countries.

METHODS

We developed a conceptual framework to assess how the adoption and coverage of new interventions with a given incremental cost-effectiveness ratio will affect the rate of increase of health expenditures per capita and life expectancy at the population level. The cost-effectiveness threshold can be derived so that the effect of new interventions on the evolution of life expectancy and health expenditure per capita is set within predefined goals. To provide guidance on cost-effectiveness thresholds and secular trends for 174 countries, we projected country-level health expenditure per capita and life expectancy increases by income level based on World Bank data for the period 2010-19.

FINDINGS

Cost-effectiveness thresholds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) ranged between US$87 (Democratic Republic of the Congo) and $95 958 (USA) and were less than 0·5 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 96% of low-income countries, 76% of lower-middle-income countries, 31% of upper-middle-income countries, and 26% of high-income countries. Cost-effectiveness thresholds per QALY were less than 1 GDP per capita in 168 (97%) of the 174 countries. Cost-effectiveness thresholds per life-year ranged between $78 and $80 529 and between 0·12 and 1·24 GDP per capita, and were less than 1 GDP per capita in 171 (98%) countries.

INTERPRETATION

This approach, based on widely available data, can provide a useful reference for countries using economic evaluations to inform resource-allocation decisions and can enrich international efforts to estimate cost-effectiveness thresholds. Our results show lower thresholds than those currently in use in many countries.

FUNDING

Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy (IECS).

Real-world patient-level cost-effectiveness analysis of omalizumab in patients with severe allergic asthma treated in four major medical centers in Turkey

Aims. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of standard-of-care treatment (SoC) to SoC in combination with omalizumab (OML + Soc) in patients with severe asthma using real-world prospective clinical data from 4 major medical centers in Turkey.Materials and methods. Between February 2018 and November 2019, a total of 206 patients with severe astma, including 126 of whom were in the OML + SoC group and 80 in the SoC group, were followed for 12 months to evaluate their asthma status and quality of life. Cost data for this patient-level economic evaluation were sourced from the MEDULA database of the hospitals and expressed in Turkish Lira (₺). Efficacy data were obtained by means of Turkish versions of the Asthma Control Test for asthma status, and the 5-level EQ-5D-5L version (EQ-5D-5L) and the Asthma Quality of Life Scale for quality of life. A Markov model with 2-week cycles was specified, comparing costs and treatment effects of SoC versus OML + SoC over a lifetime from the Turkish payer perspective.Results. Per-patient costs were ₺23,607.08 in the SoC arm and ₺425,329.81 in the OML + Soc arm, for a difference of ₺401,722.74. Life years (LY) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were 13.60 and 10.08, respectively, in the SoC group; and 21.26 and 13.35, respectively, in the OML + SoC group, for differences of 7.66 LYs and 3.27 QALYs. This yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of an additional ₺52,427.04 to gain 1 LY and an incremental cost-utility ratio of an incremental ₺122,675.57 to gain 1 QALY; the latter being below the ₺156,948 willingness-to-pay threshold for Turkey referenced by WHO. One-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses confirmed that base-case results.Conclusion. Whereas most economic evaluations are based on aggregate data, this independent cost-effectiveness analysis using prospective real-world patient-level data suggests that omalizumab in combination with standard-of-care is cost-effective for severe asthma from the Turkish public payer perspective.

The Broader Opportunity Costs in the Broader Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Framework

BACKGROUND

The traditional cost-effectiveness analysis framework usually takes a healthcare system perspective, where the aim is to maximise population health from a fixed budget allocated to healthcare. Extensions to this framework have been suggested, including: (i) incorporating impacts that fall outside the healthcare sector; (ii) accounting for outcomes beyond health; and (iii) assessing equity considerations. Several alternatives have been proposed that serve these purposes, for example, the extended "impact inventory", the "beyond-the-QALY" approach and the distributional cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to develop a comprehensive framework that incorporates into the cost-effectiveness analysis framework some of its most advocated extensions and provides a means of arriving at a unidimensional cost-effectiveness analysis result measure.

METHODS

Building on previous work, I proposed a framework that explicitly incorporates the full extent of the opportunity costs that arise when new dimensions and distributional concerns are included in cost-effectiveness analyses. A hypothetical example is provided as a way of illustration.

RESULTS

Operationalising the proposed framework requires system-wide representative values and/or robust estimates concerning: (i) selecting dimensions; (ii) measuring opportunity costs associated with each dimension; (iii) quantifying equity weights and percentages of beneficiaries and losers meeting equity considerations; and (iv) attaching monetary values to dimensions measured using a non-monetary metric.

CONCLUSIONS

Extending the cost-effectiveness analysis framework entails extending the measurement of the opportunity costs of funding decisions. This implies populating an ambitious puzzle that in some cases poses fundamental conceptual and empirical questions. Potential routes of further research that might facilitate such undertaking are proposed.

Evaluating the equity impact and cost-effectiveness of digital adherence technologies with differentiated care to support tuberculosis treatment adherence in Ethiopia: protocol and analysis plan for the health economics component of a cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis remains a leading infectious cause of death in resource-limited settings. Effective treatment is the cornerstone of tuberculosis control, reducing mortality, recurrence and transmission. Supporting treatment adherence through facility-based observations of medication taking can be costly to providers and patients. Digital adherence technologies (DATs) may facilitate treatment monitoring and differentiated care. The ASCENT-Ethiopia study is a three-arm cluster randomised trial assessing two DATs with differentiated care for supporting tuberculosis treatment adherence in Ethiopia. This study is part of the ASCENT consortium, assessing DATs in South Africa, the Philippines, Ukraine, Tanzania and Ethiopia. The aim of this study is to determine the costs, cost-effectiveness and equity impact of implementing DATs in Ethiopia.

METHODS AND DESIGN

A total of 78 health facilities have been randomised (1:1:1) into one of two intervention arms or a standard-of-care arm. Approximately 50 participants from each health facility will be enrolled on the trial. Participants in facilities randomised to the intervention arms are offered a DAT linked to the ASCENT adherence platform for daily adherence monitoring and differentiated response for those who have missed doses. Participants at standard-of-care facilities receive routine care. Treatment outcomes and resource utilisation will be measured for each participant. The primary effectiveness outcome is a composite index of unfavourable end-of-treatment outcomes (lost to follow-up, death or treatment failure) or treatment recurrence within 6 months of end-of-treatment. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, end-of-treatment outcomes will be used to estimate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Provider and patient cost data will be collected from a subsample of 5 health facilities per study arm, 10 participants per facility (n = 150). We will conduct a societal cost-effectiveness analysis using Bayesian hierarchical models that account for the individual-level correlation between costs and outcomes as well as intra-cluster correlation. An equity impact analysis will be conducted to summarise equity efficiency trade-offs.

DISCUSSION

Trial enrolment is ongoing. This paper follows the published trial protocol and describes the protocol and analysis plan for the health economics work package of the ASCENT-Ethiopia trial. This analysis will generate economic evidence to inform the implementation of DATs in Ethiopia and globally.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (PACTR) PACTR202008776694999. Registered on 11 August 2020,  https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=12241 .

Cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis infection prevention and control interventions in South African clinics: a model-based economic evaluation informed by complexity science methods

INTRODUCTION

Nosocomial Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission substantially impacts health workers, patients and communities. Guidelines for tuberculosis infection prevention and control (TB IPC) exist but implementation in many settings remains suboptimal. Evidence is needed on cost-effective investments to prevent Mtb transmission that are feasible in routine clinic environments.

METHODS

A set of TB IPC interventions was codesigned with local stakeholders using system dynamics modelling techniques that addressed both core activities and enabling actions to support implementation. An economic evaluation of these interventions was conducted at two clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, employing agent-based models of Mtb transmission within the clinics and in their catchment populations. Intervention costs included the costs of the enablers (eg, strengthened supervision, community sensitisation) identified by stakeholders to ensure uptake and adherence.

RESULTS

All intervention scenarios modelled, inclusive of the relevant enablers, cost less than US$200 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted and were very cost-effective in comparison to South Africa's opportunity cost-based threshold (US$3200 per DALY averted). Two interventions, building modifications to improve ventilation and maximising use of the existing Central Chronic Medicines Dispensing and Distribution system to reduce the number of clinic attendees, were found to be cost saving over the 10-year model time horizon. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were sensitive to assumptions on baseline clinic ventilation rates, the prevalence of infectious TB in clinic attendees and future HIV incidence but remained highly cost-effective under all uncertainty analysis scenarios.

CONCLUSION

TB IPC interventions in clinics, including the enabling actions to ensure their feasibility, afford very good value for money and should be prioritised for implementation within the South African health system.

Cost-effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention across sub-Saharan Africa: results from five independent models

BACKGROUND

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been a recommended HIV prevention strategy in sub-Saharan Africa since 2007, particularly in countries with high HIV prevalence. However, given the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy programmes, it is not clear whether VMMC still represents a cost-effective use of scarce HIV programme resources.

METHODS

Using five existing well described HIV mathematical models, we compared continuation of VMMC for 5 years in men aged 15 years and older to no further VMMC in South Africa, Malawi, and Zimbabwe and across a range of setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa. Outputs were based on a 50-year time horizon, VMMC cost was assumed to be US$90, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 was used.

FINDINGS

In South Africa and Malawi, the continuation of VMMC for 5 years resulted in cost savings and health benefits (infections and disability-adjusted life-years averted) according to all models. Of the two models modelling Zimbabwe, the continuation of VMMC for 5 years resulted in cost savings and health benefits by one model but was not as cost-effective according to the other model. Continuation of VMMC was cost-effective in 68% of setting scenarios across sub-Saharan Africa. VMMC was more likely to be cost-effective in modelled settings with higher HIV incidence; VMMC was cost-effective in 62% of settings with HIV incidence of less than 0·1 per 100 person-years in men aged 15-49 years, increasing to 95% with HIV incidence greater than 1·0 per 100 person-years.

INTERPRETATION

VMMC remains a cost-effective, often cost-saving, prevention intervention in sub-Saharan Africa for at least the next 5 years.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for the HIV Modelling Consortium.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of different screening and diagnostic strategies for sexually transmitted infections and bacterial vaginosis in women attending primary health care facilities in Cape Town

Background

Genital inflammation associated with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and bacterial vaginosis (BV) is considered a key driver in the HIV epidemic. A new rapid point-of-care test (POC) that detects genital inflammation in women-Genital InFlammation Test (GIFT)-was recently developed by researchers at the University of Cape Town. The objective of this study was to establish the cost-effectiveness of this novel intervention relative to other relevant screening and diagnostic strategies for the management of STIs and BV in women seeking care in the public health sector in South Africa.

Methods

A decision analysis model was developed for five different screening and diagnostic strategies for women incorporating syndromic management, screening with GIFT and using etiological diagnosis. A decision tree was constructed using Microsoft Excel Office 365, and cost and effectiveness parameters were obtained from published literature and market prices. The model incorporated all clinic-level and treatment costs associated with diagnosing and treating a single episode of disease. The effectiveness of each approach was proxied by its sensitivity. One-way and threshold sensitivity analyses were conducted to test key uncertainties and assumptions in the model.

Results

Screening with GIFT, and following with antibiotic treatment according to syndromic management guidelines for GIFT-positive cases, was the most cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD 11.08 per women diagnosed with an STI(s) and/or BV and provided treatment. This strategy resulted in lower rates of overtreatment compared to syndromic management, but higher rates compared to etiological diagnosis using nucleic acid amplification tests and microscopy. However, following a GIFT positive test with etiological diagnosis prior to treatment did not increase the effectiveness, but dramatically increased the cost.

Conclusion

Screening with GIFT and treating positive cases according to syndromic management guidelines is the most cost-effective strategy for the management of STIs and BV. GIFT has a potential to significantly improve the management of STIs and BV in women by identifying asymptomatic women and reducing their risk of HIV infection. This analysis presents a first step in establishing the cost-effectiveness of these interventions and paves the way for further research to develop optimal context-specific implementation strategies.

Informing a cost-effectiveness threshold for Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 aims to reform health care across the Kingdom, with health technology assessment being adopted as one tool promising to improve the efficiency with which resources are used. An understanding of the opportunity costs of reimbursement decisions is key to fulfilling this promise and can be used to inform a cost-effectiveness threshold. This paper is the first to provide a range of estimates of this using existing evidence extrapolated to the context of Saudi Arabia.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We use four approaches to estimate the marginal cost per unit of health produced by the healthcare system; drawing from existing evidence provided by a cross-country analysis, two alternative estimates from the UK context, and based on extrapolating a UK estimate using evidence on the income elasticity of the value of health. Consequences of estimation error are explored.

RESULTS

Based on the four approaches, we find a range of SAR 42,046 per QALY gained (48% of GDP per capita) to SAR 215,120 per QALY gained (246% of GDP per capita). Calculated potential central estimates from the average of estimated health gains based on each source gives a range of SAR 50,000-75,000. The results are in line with estimates from the emerging literature from across the world.

CONCLUSION

A cost-effectiveness threshold reflecting health opportunity costs can aid decision-making. Applying a cost-effectiveness threshold based on the range SAR 50,000 to 75,000 per QALY gained would ensure that resource allocation decisions in healthcare can in be informed in a way that accounts for health opportunity costs.

LIMITATIONS

A limitation is that it is not based on a within-country study for Saudi Arabia, which represents a promising line of future work.

Cost utility and budget impact analysis of dexamethasone compared with bortezomib and lenalidomide for the treatment of second line multiple myeloma from a South African public health perspective

BACKGROUND

Multiple myeloma is an incurable haematological malignancy that is associated with a high probability of relapse. The survival of relapsed patients has been greatly improved by the development of novel drugs such as lenalidomide and bortezomib. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of these drugs as second-line treatment for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) patients in the South African public health care system.

METHODS

We modelled 3 treatment strategies for second-line RRMM treatment: dexamethasone (standard of care), bortezomib (BORT) and lenalidomide plus dexamethasone (LEN/DEX) from the South African public health perspective. For each strategy we modelled a hypothetical cohort of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma patients using a three-state Markov model over a 15-year time horizon. Efficacy and utilization data were obtained from the MM009/010 and APEX trials and external studies. Price and cost data were from local sources and presented in 2021 South African Rands. Outcomes were reported in quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for BORT and LEN/DEX and compared to a local cost-effectiveness threshold of R38 500 per DALY averted using the assumption that 1 DALY averted is equal to 1 QALY gained. A budget impact analysis was conducted to evaluate the financial impact of the introduction of BORT and LEN/DEX, respectively. Deterministic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to account for parameter uncertainties.

RESULTS

The modelled total costs of DEX, BORT and LEN/DEX were estimated to be R8 312, R234 996 and R1 135 323, respectively. DEX treatment provided 1.14 QALYs while BORT and LEN/DEX treatments provided 1.49 and 2.22 QALYs, respectively. The ICER of BORT versus DEX was R654 649 and that of LEN/DEX versus BORT was R1 225 542. Both BORT and LEN/DEX treatments were not cost-effective relative to a cost-effectiveness threshold of R38 500 per DALY averted. Both BORT and LEN/DEX significantly increase the 1 year budget-cost of RRMM treatment.

CONCLUSION

Both BORT and LEN/DEX treatments are unlikely to be cost-effective strategies for second-line treatment of RRMM in South Africa. The results indicate that the drug prices of lenalidomide and bortezomib are key drivers of value for money. Price reductions could potentially make BORT more cost-effective.

The health cost of reducing hospital bed capacity

In the past two decades, most high-income countries have reduced their hospital bed capacity. This could be a sign of increased efficiency but could also reflect a degradation in quality of care. In this paper, we use repeated cross-sections on mortality and staffed hospital beds per capita in all 21 Swedish regions to estimate the potential death toll from reduced bed capacity. Between 2001 and 2019, mortality and beds decreased across all regions, but regions making smaller bed reductions experienced on average greater decreases in mortality, equivalent to one less death per three beds retained. This estimate is stable to a wide range of specifications and to adjustment for potential confounders, which supports a causal interpretation. Our results imply that by providing one more bed, Swedish health care could produce about three quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a cost of SEK 400,000 (∼US$40,000) per QALY. These findings could be informative about the marginal productivity of health care and support the credibility of empirical work attempting to estimate the opportunity cost of funding new healthcare interventions subject to a constrained budget.

Estimating the Health Effects of Expansions in Health Expenditure in Indonesia: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

BACKGROUND

The marginal productivity of a country's healthcare system refers to the health gains produced per unit change in the level of spending. In budget-constrained settings, this metric reflects the opportunity cost, in terms of health gains forgone, of committing additional or existing resources to alternative uses within the healthcare system. It can therefore assist in evidence-based decisions on whether different interventions represent good value for money.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper was to estimate the marginal productivity of the Indonesian healthcare system using subnational data, and to use this to inform health opportunity costs in the country.

METHODS

We define a dynamic health production function to model the stream of effects of current and prior public health spending decisions on population under-five mortality. To estimate the model, we use data from the 33 Indonesian provinces for the 2004-2012 period. The estimated elasticity is then translated into gains in terms of cost per DALY (disability-adjusted life-year) averted. We use dynamic panel data methods to address potential endogeneity issues in the model.

RESULTS

Our base-case estimates suggest that a 1% expansion in the level of health spending reduces under-five mortality by 0.38% (95% CI 0.00-0.76), which translates into a cost of averting one DALY of $235 (2019 US$).

CONCLUSION

With Indonesia aiming for universal health coverage, our results support these efforts by highlighting the associated benefits resulting from increases in public health expenditure and have the potential to inform the decision-making process about a suitable locally relevant cost-effectiveness threshold.

Cost-utility analysis of caspofungin and fluconazole for primary treatment of invasive candidiasis and candidemia in Ethiopia

Background

Invasive candidiasis and/or candidemia (IC/C) is a common fungal infection leading to significant health and economic losses worldwide. Caspofungin was shown to be more effective than fluconazole in treating inpatients with IC/C. However, cost-effectiveness of caspofungin for treating IC/C in Ethiopia remains unknown. We aimed to assess the cost-utility of caspofungin compared to fluconazole-initiated therapies as primary treatment of IC/C in Ethiopia.

Methods

A Markov cohort model was developed to compare the cost-utility of caspofungin versus fluconazole antifungal agents as first-line treatment for adult inpatients with IC/C from the Ethiopian health system perspective. Treatment outcome was categorized as either a clinical success or failure, with clinical failure being switched to a different antifungal medication. Liposomal amphotericin B (L-AmB) was used as a rescue agent for patients who had failed caspofungin treatment, while caspofungin or L-AmB were used for patients who had failed fluconazole treatment. Primary outcomes were expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs (US$2021), and the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR). These QALYs and costs were discounted at 3% annually. Cost data was obtained from Addis Ababa hospitals while locally unavailable data were derived from the literature. Cost-effectiveness was assessed against the recommended threshold of 50% of Ethiopia’s gross domestic product/capita (i.e.,US$476). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the findings.

Results

In the base-case analysis, treatment of IC/C with caspofungin as first-line treatment resulted in better health outcomes (12.86 QALYs) but higher costs (US$7,714) compared to fluconazole-initiated treatment followed by caspofungin (12.30 QALYs; US$3,217) or L-AmB (10.92 QALYs; US$2,781) as second-line treatment. Caspofungin as primary treatment for IC/C was not cost-effective when compared to fluconazole-initiated therapies. Fluconazole-initiated treatment followed by caspofungin was cost-effective for the treatment of IC/C compared to fluconazole with L-AmB as second-line treatment, at US$316/QALY gained. Our findings were sensitive to medication costs, drug effectiveness, infection recurrence, and infection-related mortality rates. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$476/QALY, treating IC/C patient with fluconazole-initiated treatment followed by caspofungin was more likely to be cost-effective in 67.2% of simulations.

Conclusion

Our study showed that the use of caspofungin as primary treatment for IC/C in Ethiopia was not cost-effective when compared with fluconazole-initiated treatment alternatives. The findings supported the use of fluconazole-initiated therapy with caspofungin as a second-line treatment for patients with IC/C in Ethiopia.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of capecitabine maintenance therapy versus routine follow-up for early-stage triple-negative breast cancer patients after standard treatment from a perspective of Chinese society

BACKGROUND

Capecitabine maintenance therapy is safe and efficacious for early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients, but the cost-effectiveness of its long-term use has not been investigated. Here, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of capecitabine maintenance therapy, compared with routine follow-up, in early-stage TNBC patients after standard treatment from a perspective of Chinese society.

METHODS

A three-state Markov model based on the data from the SYSUCC-001 trial was constructed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of capecitabine maintenance therapy in a month cycle over a period of 30-year time horizon. A 5% annual discount rate was set for all costs and benefits. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the model uncertainties. The main outcomes include quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one additional event.

RESULTS

Compared with routine follow-up, 1-year capecitabine maintenance therapy yielded an additional 1.29 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at an additional cost of $3391.70, with an ICER of $2630.53 (95% CI: $1159.81-$5090.12) per QALY gained. The ICER was considerably lower than the recommended willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (i.e., $28,130.00 per QALY). The results were sensitive to the discount rate, drug cost, and treatment cost after relapse. Further, the NNT to prevent one additional relapse case was 29.2 (95% CI: 13.2-196.6), 16.7 (95% CI: 8.4-111.6), and 12.0 (95% CI: 5.7-82.6) at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

One-year capecitabine maintenance therapy for early-stage TNBC after standard treatment, compared with routine follow-up, was found to be highly cost-effective with promising clinical benefits and acceptable increased costs. Real-world studies are warranted to validate our findings in the future.

Supply-Side Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: Questions for Evidence-Based Policy

There is growing interest in cost-effectiveness thresholds as a tool to inform resource allocation decisions in health care. Studies from several countries have sought to estimate health system opportunity costs, which supply-side cost-effectiveness thresholds are intended to represent. In this paper, we consider the role of empirical estimates of supply-side thresholds in policy-making. Recent studies estimate the cost per unit of health based on average displacement or outcome elasticity. We distinguish the types of point estimates reported in empirical work, including marginal productivity, average displacement, and outcome elasticity. Using this classification, we summarise the limitations of current approaches to threshold estimation in terms of theory, methods, and data. We highlight the questions that arise from alternative interpretations of thresholds and provide recommendations to policymakers seeking to use a supply-side threshold where the evidence base is emerging or incomplete. We recommend that: (1) policymakers must clearly define the scope of the application of a threshold, and the theoretical basis for empirical estimates should be consistent with that scope; (2) a process for the assessment of new evidence and for determining changes in the threshold to be applied in policy-making should be created; (3) decision-making processes should retain flexibility in the application of a threshold; and (4) policymakers should provide support for decision-makers relating to the use of thresholds and the implementation of decisions stemming from their application.

Transmission reduction, health benefits, and upper-bound costs of interventions to improve retention on antiretroviral therapy: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

BACKGROUND

In this so-called treat-all era, antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruptions contribute to an increasing proportion of HIV infections and deaths. Many strategies to improve retention on ART cost more than standard of care. In this study, we aimed to estimate the upper-bound costs at which such interventions should be adopted.

METHODS

In this combined analysis, we compared the infections averted, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, and upper-bound costs of interventions that improve ART retention in three HIV models with diverse structures, assumptions, and baseline settings: EMOD in South Africa, Optima in Malawi, and Synthesis in sub-Saharan African low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modelled estimates over a 40-year time horizon, from a baseline of Jan 1, 2022, when interventions would be implemented, to Jan 1, 2062. We varied increment of ART retention (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% retention), the extent to which interventions could be targeted towards individuals at risk of interrupting ART, and cost-effectiveness thresholds in each setting.

FINDINGS

Despite simulating different settings and epidemic trends, all three models produced consistent estimates of health benefit (ie, DALYs averted) and transmission reduction per increment in retention. The range of estimates was 1·35-3·55 DALYs and 0·12-0·20 infections averted over the 40-year time horizon per additional person-year retained on ART. Upper-bound costs varied by setting and intervention effectiveness. Improving retention by 25% among all people receiving ART, regardless of risk of ART interruption, gave an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$2-6 in Optima (Malawi), $43-68 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $28-180 in EMOD (South Africa). A maximally targeted and effective retention intervention had an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$93-223 in Optima (Malawi), $871-1389 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $1013-6518 in EMOD (South Africa).

INTERPRETATION

Upper-bound costs that could improve ART retention vary across sub-Saharan African settings and are likely to be similar to or higher than was estimated before the start of the treat-all era. Upper-bound costs could be increased by targeting interventions to those most at risk of interrupting ART.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic evaluation of psychological treatments for common mental disorders in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Common mental disorders (CMDs) constitute a major public health and economic burden on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Systematic reviews of economic evaluations of psychological treatments for CMDs are limited. This systematic review examines methods, reports findings and appraises the quality of economic evaluations of psychological treatments for CMDs in LMICs. We searched a range of bibliographic databases (including PubMed, EconLit, APA-PsycINFO and Cochrane library) and the African Journals Online (AJoL) and Google Scholar platforms. We used a pre-populated template to extract data and the Drummond & Jefferson checklist for quality appraisal. We present results as a narrative synthesis. The review included 26 studies, mostly from Asia (12) and Africa (9). The majority were cost-effectiveness analyses (12), some were cost-utility analyses (5), with one cost-benefit analysis or combinations of economic evaluations (8). Most interventions were considered either cost-effective or potentially cost-effective (22), with 3 interventions being not cost-effective. Limitations were noted regarding appropriateness of conclusions drawn on cost-effectiveness, the use of cost-effectiveness thresholds and application of 'societal' incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to reflect value for money (VfM) of treatments. Non-specialist health workers (NSHWs) delivered most of the treatments (16) for low-cost delivery at scale, and costs should reflect the true opportunity cost of NSHWs' time to support the development of a sustainable cadre of health care providers. There is a 4-fold increase in economic evaluations of CMD psychological treatments in the last decade over the previous one. Yet, findings from this review highlight the need for better application of economic evaluation methodology to support resource allocation towards the World Health Organization recommended first-line treatments of CMDs. We suggest impact inventories to capture societal economic gains and propose a VfM assessment framework to guide researchers in evaluating cost-effectiveness.

Evaluation of four chemotherapy regimens for treatment of advanced AIDS-associated Kaposi sarcoma in Kenya: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The most effective treatment for advanced AIDS-associated Kaposi sarcoma is paclitaxel or pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD); neither is routinely used in sub-Saharan Africa due to limited availability and high cost. We examined the clinical impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of paclitaxel or PLD in Kenya, compared with etoposide or bleomycin-vincristine.

METHODS

In this study, we use the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-International Model to project clinical outcomes and costs among people living with HIV and advanced Kaposi sarcoma on antiretroviral therapy. We compared four different treatment strategies: etoposide, bleomycin-vincristine, paclitaxel, or PLD. We derived cohort characteristics and costs from the Kenyan Academic Model for Providing Access to Healthcare network, and adverse events, efficacy, and mortality from clinical trials. We projected model outcomes over a lifetime and included life expectancy, per-person lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We conducted budget impact analysis for 5-year total costs and did deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in input parameters.

FINDINGS

We found that paclitaxel would be more effective than bleomycin-vincristine and would increase life expectancy by 4·2 years per person. PLD would further increase life expectancy by 0·6 years per person. Paclitaxel would be the most cost-effective strategy (ICER US$380 per year-of-life-saved compared with bleomycin-vincristine) and would remain cost-effective across a range of scenarios. PLD would be cost-effective compared with paclitaxel if its price were reduced to $100 per cycle (base case $180 per cycle). Implementing paclitaxel instead of bleomycin-vincristine would save approximately 6400 life-years and would increase the overall 5-year Kenyan health-care costs by $3·7 million; increased costs would be primarily related to ongoing HIV care given improved survival.

INTERPRETATION

Paclitaxel would substantially increase life expectancy and be cost-effective compared with bleomycin-vincristine for advanced AIDS-associated Kaposi sarcoma in Kenya and should be the standard of care. PLD would further improve survival and be cost-effective with a 44% price reduction.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health and Massachusetts General Hospital.

TRANSLATION

For the Swahili translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing, Linkage, and Early Antiretroviral Treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project

BACKGROUND

The Botswana Combination Prevention Project tested the impact of combination prevention (CP) on HIV incidence in a community-randomized trial. Each trial arm had ∼55,000 people, 26% HIV prevalence, and 72% baseline ART coverage. Results showed intensive testing and linkage campaigns, expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART), and voluntary male medical circumcision referrals increased coverage and decreased incidence over ∼29 months of follow-up. We projected lifetime clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of CP in this population.

SETTING

Rural and periurban communities in Botswana.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model to estimate lifetime health impact and cost of (1) earlier ART initiation and (2) averting an HIV infection, which we applied to incremental ART initiations and averted infections calculated from trial data. We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [US$/quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)] for CP vs. standard of care.

RESULTS

In CP, 1418 additional people with HIV initiated ART and an additional 304 infections were averted. For each additional person started on ART, life expectancy increased 0.90 QALYs and care costs increased by $869. For each infection averted, life expectancy increased 2.43 QALYs with $9200 in care costs saved. With CP, an additional $1.7 million were spent on prevention and $1.2 million on earlier treatment. These costs were mostly offset by decreased care costs from averted infections, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $79 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced HIV testing, linkage, and early ART initiation improve life expectancy, reduce transmission, and can be cost-effective or cost-saving in settings like Botswana.

Stepped care to optimize pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) effectiveness in pregnant and postpartum women (SCOPE-PP) in South Africa: a randomized control trial

BACKGROUND

HIV incidence among pregnant and postpartum women remains high in South Africa. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use remains suboptimal in this population, particularly during the postpartum period when women's engagement with routine clinic visits outside PrEP decreases. Key barriers to sustained PrEP use include the need for ongoing contact with the health facility and suboptimal counseling around effective PrEP use.

METHODS

Stepped Care to Optimize PrEP Effectiveness in Pregnant and Postpartum women (SCOPE-PP), is a two-stepped unblinded, individually randomized controlled trial (RCT) that aims to optimize peripartum and postpartum PrEP use by providing a stepped package of evidence-based interventions. We will enroll 650 pregnant women (> 25 weeks pregnant) who access PrEP at a busy antenatal clinic in Cape Town at the time of recruitment and follow them for 15 months. We will enroll and individually randomize pregnant women > 16 years who are not living with HIV who are either on PrEP or interested in starting PrEP during pregnancy. In step 1, we will evaluate the impact of enhanced adherence counselling and biofeedback (using urine tenofovir tests for biofeedback) and rapid PrEP collection (to reduce time required) on PrEP use in early peripartum compared to standard of care (SOC) (n = 325 per arm). The primary outcome is PrEP persistence per urine tenofovir levels and dried blood spots of tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) after 6-months. The second step will enroll and individually randomize participants from Step 1 who discontinue taking PrEP or have poor persistence in Step 1 but want to continue PrEP. Step 2 will test the impact of enhanced counseling and biofeedback plus rapid PrEP collection compared to community PrEP delivery with HIV self-testing on PrEP use (n = up to 325 postpartum women). The primary outcome is PrEP continuation and persistence 6-months following second randomization (~ 9-months postpartum). Finally, we will estimate the cost effectiveness of SCOPE-PP vs. SOC per primary outcomes and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted in both Step 1 and 2 using micro-costing with trial- and model-based economic evaluation.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide novel insights into optimal strategies for delivering PrEP to peripartum and postpartum women in this high-incidence setting.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT05322629 : Date of registration: April 12, 2022.

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