Neutralizing Antibody Correlates Analysis of Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine Efficacy Trials in Asia and Latin America

Innovations in dengue virus detection: An overview of conventional and electrochemical biosensor approaches

Globally, people are in great threat due to the highly spreading of viral infectious diseases. Every year like 100-300 million cases of infections are found, and among them, above 80% are not recognized and irrelevant. Dengue virus (DENV) is an arbovirus infection that currently infects people most frequently. DENV encompasses four viral serotypes, and they each express comparable sign. From a mild febrile sickness to a potentially fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue can induce a variety of symptoms. Presently, the globe is being challenged by the untimely identification of dengue infection. Therefore, this review summarizes advances in the detection of dengue from conventional methods (nucleic acid-based, polymerase chain reaction-based, and serological approaches) to novel biosensors. This work illustrates an extensive study of the current designs and fabrication approaches involved in the formation of electrochemical biosensors for untimely identifications of dengue. Additionally, in electrochemical sensing of DENV, we skimmed through significances of biorecognition molecules like lectins, nucleic acid, and antibodies. The introduction of emerging techniques such as the CRISPR/Cas' system and their integration with biosensing platforms has also been summarized. Furthermore, the review revealed the importance of electrochemical approach compared with traditional diagnostic methods.

Primary exposure to Zika virus is linked with increased risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4, but not 1

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on preexisting antibodies and infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with increased risk of DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by DENV1-4 in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced dengue cases caused by DENV1 (n = 139), DENV4 (n = 133), DENV3 (n = 54), DENV2 (n = 9), or an undetermined serotype (n = 39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since last infection, and year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared with flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection was associated with increased risk of disease caused by DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48 to 4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34 to 6.27), but not DENV1 infection. Primary DENV infection or DENV followed by ZIKV infection was also associated with increased risk of DENV4 disease. We reanalyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus immunity and antibody titer had distinct associations with disease risk depending on incoming serotype. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, is associated with increased risk of disease with certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

Envelope-dimer epitope-like broadly protective antibodies against dengue in children following natural infection and vaccination

Cross-reactive antibodies (Abs) to epitopes that span envelope proteins on the virion surface are hypothesized to protect against dengue. Here, we measured Abs targeting the quaternary envelope dimer epitope (EDE) as well as neutralizing and binding Abs and evaluate their association with dengue virus (DENV) infection, vaccine response, and disease outcome in dengue vaccinated and unvaccinated children (n=252) within a longitudinal cohort in Cebu, Philippines (n=2,996). Abs targeting EDE were prevalent and strongly associated with broad neutralization of DENV1-4 in those with baseline multitypic immunity. Subsequent natural infection and vaccination boosted EDE-like, neutralizing, and binding Abs. EDE-like Abs were associated with reduced dengue risk and mediated the protective effect of binding and neutralizing Abs on symptomatic and severe dengue. Thus, Abs targeting quaternary epitopes help explain broad cross protection in those with multiple prior DENV exposures, making them useful for evaluation and development of future vaccines and therapeutics.

Dengue virus IgG and serotype-specific neutralizing antibody titers measured with standard and mature viruses are associated with protection

Recent work demonstrates the limitations of the standard dengue virus (DENV) neutralization assay to predict protection against dengue. We perform studies to compare how a commercial IgG ELISA, envelope domain III (EDIII) or non-structural protein 1 (NS1) binding antibodies, and titers from plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNTs) using reference standard and clinical mature viruses are associated with dengue disease. Healthy children (n = 1,206) in Cebu, Philippines were followed for 5 years. High ELISA values (≥3) were associated with reduced dengue probability relative to naïve children (3% vs. 10%, p = 0.008), but antibody binding EDIII or NS1 from each serotype had no association. High standard and mature geometric mean PRNT titers were associated with reduced dengue disease overall (p < 0.01), and high DENV2 and DENV3 titers in both assays provided protection against the matched serotype (p < 0.02). However, while 52% of dengue cases had standard virus PRNT titers > 100, only 2% of cases had mature virus PRNT titers > 100 (p < 0.001), indicating a lower, more consistent threshold for protection. Each assay may be useful for different purposes as correlates of protection in population and vaccine trials.

Four statistical frameworks for assessing an immune correlate of protection (surrogate endpoint) from a randomized, controlled, vaccine efficacy trial

A central goal of vaccine research is to characterize and validate immune correlates of protection (CoPs). In addition to helping elucidate immunological mechanisms, a CoP can serve as a valid surrogate endpoint for an infectious disease clinical outcome and thus qualifies as a primary endpoint for vaccine authorization or approval without requiring resource-intensive randomized, controlled phase 3 trials. Yet, it is challenging to persuasively validate a CoP, because a prognostic immune marker can fail as a reliable basis for predicting/inferring the level of vaccine efficacy against a clinical outcome, and because the statistical analysis of phase 3 trials only has limited capacity to disentangle association from cause. Moreover, the multitude of statistical methods garnered for CoP evaluation in phase 3 trials renders the comparison, interpretation, and synthesis of CoP results challenging. Toward promoting broader harmonization and standardization of CoP evaluation, this article summarizes four complementary statistical frameworks for evaluating CoPs in a phase 3 trial, focusing on the frameworks' distinct scientific objectives as measured and communicated by distinct causal vaccine efficacy parameters. Advantages and disadvantages of the frameworks are considered, dependent on phase 3 trial context, and perspectives are offered on how the frameworks can be applied and their results synthesized.

Dengue

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Dengue Fever Epidemics and the Prospect of Vaccines: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Using Clinical Trials in Children

About half of the world's population is at risk of dengue infection. Epidemics of dengue fever have caused an increased risk of morbidity and mortality in recent years, which led to the exploration of vaccines as a preventive measure. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the efficacy, immune response, and safety of dengue vaccines in children by analyzing clinical trials. The review followed standard procedures for data extraction using PRISMA guidelines and searching multiple databases, including PubMed, CINAHL, Medline, Health Source, Science Direct, and Academic Search Premiere. Eligible studies involved children (0-17 years old). Quality assessment was analyzed using the Cochrane Collaboration criteria, while data synthesis was conducted using thematic analysis and meta-analysis. Among the 38 selected studies, dengue vaccines showed varying efficacy against all four serotypes. The CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia®) and Tekade (TAK-003) vaccines showed strong protection against severe dengue, but their long-term efficacy varied. Vaccines triggered satisfactory immune responses, notably in those previously exposed to dengue. Safety profiles were mostly favorable, noting mild adverse events post-vaccination. Meta-analysis supported vaccine efficacy and immune response, but safety concerns warrant further exploration. In conclusion, dengue vaccines showed promising efficacy and immune response, particularly against severe manifestations.

Household immunity and individual risk of infection with dengue virus in a prospective, longitudinal cohort study

Although it is known that household infections drive the transmission of dengue virus (DENV), it is unclear how household composition and the immune status of inhabitants affect the individual risk of infection. Most population-based studies to date have focused on paediatric cohorts because more severe forms of dengue mainly occur in children, and the role of adults in dengue transmission is understudied. Here we analysed data from a multigenerational cohort study of 470 households, comprising 2,860 individuals, in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, to evaluate risk factors for DENV infection. Using a gradient-boosted regression model trained on annual haemagglutination inhibition antibody titre inputs, we identified 1,049 infections, 90% of which were subclinical. By analysing imputed infections, we found that individual antibody titres, household composition and antibody titres of other members in the same household affect an individual's risk of DENV infection. Those individuals living in households with high average antibody titres, or households with more adults, had a reduced risk of infection. We propose that herd immunity to dengue acts at the household level and may provide insight into the drivers of the recent change in the shifting age distribution of dengue cases in Thailand.

Primary exposure to Zika virus increases risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4 but not serotype 1

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on pre-existing antibodies and the subsequent infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) has been shown to increase DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by all four serotypes in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3,412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced symptomatic DENV infections caused by DENV1 (n=139), DENV4 (n=133), DENV3 (n=54), DENV2 (n=9), or an undetermined serotype (n=39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since the last infection, cohort year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared to flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection increased disease risk of DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48-4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34-6.27) but not DENV1 (1.20, 0.72-1.99). Primary DENV infection or a DENV followed by ZIKV infection also increased DENV4 risk. We re-analyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus-immunity and pre-existing antibody titer differentially affected disease risk for incoming serotypes, increasing risk of DENV2 and DENV4, protecting against DENV1, and protecting at high titers but enhancing at low titers against DENV3. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, increases risk of certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be carefully considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

Homotypic antibodies target novel E glycoprotein domains after natural DENV 3 infection/vaccination

The envelope (E) glycoprotein is the primary target of type-specific (TS) neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) after infection with any of the four distinct dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4). nAbs can be elicited to distinct structural E domains (EDs) I, II, or III. However, the relative contribution of these domain-specific antibodies is unclear. To identify the primary DENV3 nAb targets in sera after natural infection or vaccination, chimeric DENV1 recombinant encoding DENV3 EDI, EDII, or EDIII were generated. DENV3 EDII is the principal target of TS polyclonal nAb responses and encodes two or more neutralizing epitopes. In contrast, some were individuals vaccinated with a DENV3 monovalent vaccine-elicited serum TS nAbs targeting each ED in a subject-dependent fashion, with an emphasis on EDI and EDIII. Vaccine responses were also sensitive to DENV3 genotypic variation. This DENV1/3 panel allows the measurement of serum ED TS nAbs, revealing differences in TS nAb immunity after natural infection or vaccination.

A controlled effects approach to assessing immune correlates of protection

An immune correlate of risk (CoR) is an immunologic biomarker in vaccine recipients associated with an infectious disease clinical endpoint. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) is a CoR that can be used to reliably predict vaccine efficacy (VE) against the clinical endpoint and hence is accepted as a surrogate endpoint that can be used for accelerated approval or guide use of vaccines. In randomized, placebo-controlled trials, CoR analysis is limited by not assessing a causal vaccine effect. To address this limitation, we construct the controlled risk curve of a biomarker, which provides the causal risk of an endpoint if all participants are assigned vaccine and the biomarker is set to different levels. Furthermore, we propose a causal CoP analysis based on controlled effects, where for the important special case that the biomarker is constant in the placebo arm, we study the controlled vaccine efficacy curve that contrasts the controlled risk curve with placebo arm risk. We provide identification conditions and formulae that account for right censoring of the clinical endpoint and two-phase sampling of the biomarker, and consider G-computation estimation and inference under a semiparametric model such as the Cox model. We add modular approaches to sensitivity analysis that quantify robustness of CoP evidence to unmeasured confounding. We provide an application to two phase 3 trials of a dengue vaccine indicating that controlled risk of dengue strongly varies with 50$\%$ neutralizing antibody titer. Our work introduces controlled effects causal mediation analysis to immune CoP evaluation.

Stochastic Interventional Vaccine Efficacy and Principal Surrogate Analyses of Antibody Markers as Correlates of Protection against Symptomatic COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 Trial

The COVE trial randomized participants to receive two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine or placebo on Days 1 and 29 (D1, D29). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG binding antibodies (bAbs), anti-receptor binding domain IgG bAbs, 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers, and 80% inhibitory dilution nAb titers were measured at D29 and D57. We assessed these markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 using stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis and principal surrogate (PS) analysis, frameworks not used in our previous COVE immune correlates analyses. By SVE analysis, hypothetical shifts of the D57 Spike IgG distribution from a geometric mean concentration (GMC) of 2737 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (estimated vaccine efficacy (VE): 92.9% (95% CI: 91.7%, 93.9%)) to 274 BAU/mL or to 27,368 BAU/mL resulted in an overall estimated VE of 84.2% (79.0%, 88.1%) and 97.6% (97.4%, 97.7%), respectively. By binary marker PS analysis of Low and High subgroups (cut-point: 2094 BAU/mL), the ignorance interval (IGI) and estimated uncertainty interval (EUI) for VE were [85%, 90%] and (78%, 93%) for Low compared to [95%, 96%] and (92%, 97%) for High. By continuous marker PS analysis, the IGI and 95% EUI for VE at the 2.5th percentile (519.4 BAU/mL) vs. at the 97.5th percentile (9262.9 BAU/mL) of D57 Spike IgG concentration were [92.6%, 93.4%] and (89.2%, 95.7%) vs. [94.3%, 94.6%] and (89.7%, 97.0%). Results were similar for other D29 and D57 markers. Thus, the SVE and PS analyses additionally support all four markers at both time points as CoPs.

Blockade-of-Binding Activities toward Envelope-Associated, Type-Specific Epitopes as a Correlative Marker for Dengue Virus-Neutralizing Antibody

Humans infected with dengue virus (DENV) acquire long-term protection against the infecting serotype, whereas cross-protection against other serotypes is short-lived. Long-term protection induced by low levels of type-specific neutralizing antibodies can be assessed using the virus-neutralizing antibody test. However, this test is laborious and time-consuming. In this study, a blockade-of-binding enzyme-linked immunoassay was developed to assess antibody activity by using a set of neutralizing anti-E monoclonal antibodies and blood samples from dengue virus-infected or -immunized macaques. Diluted blood samples were incubated with plate-bound dengue virus particles before the addition of an enzyme-conjugated antibody specific to the epitope of interest. Based on blocking reference curves constructed using autologous purified antibodies, sample blocking activity was determined as the relative concentration of unconjugated antibody that resulted in the same percent signal reduction. In separate DENV-1-, -2-, -3-, and -4-related sets of samples, moderate to strong correlations of the blocking activity with neutralizing antibody titers were found with the four type-specific antibodies 1F4, 3H5, 8A1, and 5H2, respectively. Significant correlations were observed for single samples taken 1 month after infection as well as samples drawn before and at various time points after infection/immunization. Similar testing using a cross-reactive EDE-1 antibody revealed a moderate correlation between the blocking activity and the neutralizing antibody titer only for the DENV-2-related set. The potential usefulness of the blockade-of-binding activity as a correlative marker of neutralizing antibodies against dengue viruses needs to be validated in humans. IMPORTANCE This study describes a blockade-of-binding assay for the determination of antibodies that recognize a selected set of serotype-specific or group-reactive epitopes in the envelope of dengue virus. By employing blood samples collected from dengue virus-infected or -immunized macaques, moderate to strong correlations of the epitope-blocking activities with the virus-neutralizing antibody titers were observed with serotype-specific blocking activities for each of the four dengue serotypes. This simple, rapid, and less laborious method should be useful for the evaluation of antibody responses to dengue virus infection and may serve as, or be a component of, an in vitro correlate of protection against dengue in the future.

Insights into dengue immunity from vaccine trials

The quest for an effective dengue vaccine has culminated in two approved vaccines and another that has completed phase 3 clinical trials. However, shortcomings exist in each, suggesting that the knowledge on dengue immunity used to develop these vaccines was incomplete. Vaccine trial findings could refine our understanding of dengue immunity, because these are experimentally derived, placebo-controlled data. Results from these trials suggest that neutralizing antibody titers alone are insufficient to inform protection against symptomatic infection, implicating a role for cellular immunity in protection. These findings have relevance for both future dengue vaccine development and application of current vaccines for maximal public health benefit.

Nonparametric estimation of the causal effect of a stochastic threshold-based intervention

Identifying a biomarker or treatment-dose threshold that marks a specified level of risk is an important problem, especially in clinical trials. In view of this goal, we consider a covariate-adjusted threshold-based interventional estimand, which happens to equal the binary treatment-specific mean estimand from the causal inference literature obtained by dichotomizing the continuous biomarker or treatment as above or below a threshold. The unadjusted version of this estimand was considered in Donovan et al.. Expanding upon Stitelman et al., we show that this estimand, under conditions, identifies the expected outcome of a stochastic intervention that sets the treatment dose of all participants above the threshold. We propose a novel nonparametric efficient estimator for the covariate-adjusted threshold-response function for the case of informative outcome missingness, which utilizes machine learning and targeted minimum-loss estimation (TMLE). We prove the estimator is efficient and characterize its asymptotic distribution and robustness properties. Construction of simultaneous 95% confidence bands for the threshold-specific estimand across a set of thresholds is discussed. In the Supporting Information, we discuss how to adjust our estimator when the biomarker is missing at random, as occurs in clinical trials with biased sampling designs, using inverse probability weighting. Efficiency and bias reduction of the proposed estimator are assessed in simulations. The methods are employed to estimate neutralizing antibody thresholds for virologically confirmed dengue risk in the CYD14 and CYD15 dengue vaccine trials.

A fast-growing dengue virus mutant reveals a dual role of STING in response to infection

The four dengue viruses (DENVs) have evolved multiple mechanisms to ensure its survival. Among these mechanisms is the ability to regulate its replication rate, which may contribute to avoiding premature immune activation that limit infection dissemination: DENVs associated with dengue epidemics have shown slower replication rate than pre-epidemic strains. Correspondingly, wild-type DENVs replicate more slowly than their clinically attenuated derivatives. To understand how DENVs 'make haste slowly', we generated and screened for DENV2 mutants with accelerated replication that also induced high type-I interferon (IFN) expression in infected cells. We chanced upon a single NS2B-I114T amino acid substitution, in an otherwise highly conserved amino acid residue. Accelerated DENV2 replication damaged host DNA as mutant infection was dependent on host DNA damage repair factors, namely RAD21, EID3 and NEK5. DNA damage induced cGAS/STING signalling and activated early type-I IFN response that inhibited infection dissemination. Unexpectedly, STING activation also supported mutant DENV replication in infected cells through STING-induced autophagy. Our findings thus show that DENV NS2B has multi-faceted role in controlling DENV replication rate and immune evasion and suggest that the dual role of STING in supporting virus replication within infected cells but inhibiting infection dissemination could be particularly advantageous for live attenuated vaccine development.

'Mix and Match' vaccination: Is dengue next?

The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and the development of multiple SARS-CoV-2 vaccines expedited vaccine 'mix and match' trials in humans and demonstrated the benefits of mixing vaccines that vary in formulation, strength, and immunogenicity. Heterologous sequential vaccination may be an effective approach for protecting against dengue, as this strategy would mimic the natural route to broad dengue protection and may overcome the imbalances in efficacy of the individual leading live attenuated dengue vaccines. Here we review 'mix and match' vaccination trials against SARS-CoV-2, HIV, and dengue virus and discuss the possible advantages and concerns of future heterologous immunization with the leading dengue vaccines. COVID-19 trials suggest that priming with a vaccine that induces strong cellular responses, such as an adenoviral vectored product, followed by heterologous boost may optimize T cell immunity. Moreover, heterologous vaccination may induce superior humoral immunity compared to homologous vaccination when the priming vaccine induces a narrower response than the boost. The HIV trials reported that heterologous vaccination was associated with broadened antigen responses and that the sequence of the vaccines significantly impacts the regimen's immunogenicity and efficacy. In heterologous dengue immunization trials, where at least one dose was with a live attenuated vaccine, all reported equivalent or increased immunogenicity compared to homologous boost, although one study reported increased reactogenicity. The three leading dengue vaccines have been evaluated for safety and efficacy in thousands of study participants but not in combination in heterologous dengue vaccine trials. Various heterologous regimens including different combinations and sequences should be trialed to optimize cellular and humoral immunity and the breadth of the response while limiting reactogenicity. A blossoming field dedicated to more accurate correlates of protection and enhancement will help confirm the safety and efficacy of these strategies.

Baseline host determinants of robust human HIV-1 vaccine-induced immune responses: A meta-analysis of 26 vaccine regimens

BACKGROUND

The identification of baseline host determinants that associate with robust HIV-1 vaccine-induced immune responses could aid HIV-1 vaccine development. We aimed to assess both the collective and relative performance of baseline characteristics in classifying individual participants in nine different Phase 1-2 HIV-1 vaccine clinical trials (26 vaccine regimens, conducted in Africa and in the Americas) as High HIV-1 vaccine responders.

METHODS

This was a meta-analysis of individual participant data, with studies chosen based on participant-level (vs. study-level summary) data availability within the HIV-1 Vaccine Trials Network. We assessed the performance of 25 baseline characteristics (demographics, safety haematological measurements, vital signs, assay background measurements) and estimated the relative importance of each characteristic in classifying 831 participants as High (defined as within the top 25th percentile among positive responders or above the assay upper limit of quantification) versus Non-High responders. Immune response outcomes included HIV-1-specific serum IgG binding antibodies and Env-specific CD4+ T-cell responses assessed two weeks post-last dose, all measured at central HVTN laboratories. Three variable importance approaches based on SuperLearner ensemble machine learning were considered.

FINDINGS

Overall, 30.1%, 50.5%, 36.2%, and 13.9% of participants were categorized as High responders for gp120 IgG, gp140 IgG, gp41 IgG, and Env-specific CD4+ T-cell vaccine-induced responses, respectively. When including all baseline characteristics, moderate performance was achieved for the classification of High responder status for the binding antibody responses, with cross-validated areas under the ROC curve (CV-AUC) of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.76) for gp120 IgG, 0.73 (0.69, 0.76) for gp140 IgG, and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.72) for gp41 IgG. In contrast, the collection of all baseline characteristics yielded little improvement over chance for predicting High Env-specific CD4+ T-cell responses [CV-AUC: 0.53 (0.48, 0.58)]. While estimated variable importance patterns differed across the three approaches, female sex assigned at birth, lower height, and higher total white blood cell count emerged as significant predictors of High responder status across multiple immune response outcomes using Approach 1. Of these three baseline variables, total white blood cell count ranked highly across all three approaches for predicting vaccine-induced gp41 and gp140 High responder status.

INTERPRETATION

The identified features should be studied further in pursuit of intervention strategies to improve vaccine responses and may be adjusted for in analyses of immune response data to enhance statistical power.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (UM1AI068635 to YH, UM1AI068614 to GDT, UM1AI068618 to MJM, and UM1 AI069511 to MCK), the Duke CFAR P30 AI064518 to GDT, and National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (R01DE027245 to JJK). This work was also supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of any of the funding sources.

Neutralizing antibody correlates of sequence specific dengue disease in a tetravalent dengue vaccine efficacy trial in Asia

In the CYD14 trial of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine in 2-14 year-olds, neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers to the vaccine-insert dengue strains correlated inversely with symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD). Also, vaccine efficacy against VCD was higher against dengue prM/E amino acid sequences closer to the vaccine inserts. We integrated the nAb and sequence data types by assessing nAb titers as a correlate of sequence-specific VCD separately in the vaccine arm and in the placebo arm. In both vaccine and placebo recipients the correlation of nAb titer with sequence-specific VCD was stronger for dengue nAb contact site sequences closer to the vaccine (p = 0.005 and p = 0.012, respectively). The risk of VCD in vaccine (placebo) recipients was 6.7- (1.80)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile of nAb for viruses perfectly matched to CYD-TDV, compared to 2.1- (0.78)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile for viruses with five amino acid mismatches. The evidence for a stronger sequence-distance dependent correlate of risk for the vaccine arm indicates departure from the Prentice criteria for a valid sequence-distance specific surrogate endpoint and suggests that the nAb marker may affect dengue risk differently depending on whether nAbs arise from infection or also by vaccination. However, when restricting to baseline-seropositive 9-14 year-olds, the correlation pattern became more similar between the vaccine and placebo arms, supporting nAb titers as an approximate surrogate endpoint in this population. No sequence-specific nAb titer correlates of VCD were seen in baseline-seronegative participants. Integrated immune response/pathogen sequence data correlates analyses could help increase knowledge of correlates of risk and surrogate endpoints for other vaccines against genetically diverse pathogens. Trial registration: EU Clinical Trials Register 2014-001708-24; registration date 2014-05-26.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR EVALUATING PRINCIPAL SURROGATE ENDPOINTS RELAXING THE EQUAL EARLY CLINICAL RISK ASSUMPTION

This article addresses the evaluation of post-randomization immune response biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints of a vaccine's protective effect, based on data from randomized vaccine trials. An important metric for quantifying a biomarker's principal surrogacy in vaccine research is the vaccine efficacy curve, which shows a vaccine's efficacy as a function of potential biomarker values if receiving vaccine, among an 'early-always-at-risk' principal stratum of trial participants who remain disease-free at the time of biomarker measurement whether having received vaccine or placebo. Earlier work in principal surrogate evaluation relied on an 'equal-early-clinical-risk' assumption for identifiability of the vaccine curve, based on observed disease status at the time of biomarker measurement. This assumption is violated in the common setting that the vaccine has an early effect on the clinical endpoint before the biomarker is measured. In particular, a vaccine's early protective effect observed in two phase III dengue vaccine trials (CYD14/CYD15) has motivated our current research development. We relax the 'equal-early-clinical-risk' assumption and propose a new sensitivity analysis framework for principal surrogate evaluation allowing for early vaccine efficacy. Under this framework, we develop inference procedures for vaccine efficacy curve estimators based on the estimated maximum likelihood approach. We then use the proposed methodology to assess the surrogacy of post-randomization neutralization titer in the motivating dengue application.

A controlled effects approach to assessing immune correlates of protection

An immune correlate of risk (CoR) is an immunologic biomarker in vaccine recipients associated with an infectious disease clinical endpoint. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) is a CoR that can be used to reliably predict vaccine efficacy (VE) against the clinical endpoint and hence is accepted as a surrogate endpoint that can be used for accelerated approval or guide use of vaccines. In randomized, placebo-controlled trials, CoR analysis is limited by not assessing a causal vaccine effect. To address this limitation, we construct the controlled risk curve of a biomarker, which provides the causal risk of an endpoint if all participants are assigned vaccine and the biomarker is set to different levels. Furthermore, we propose a causal CoP analysis based on controlled effects, where for the important special case that the biomarker is constant in the placebo arm, we study the controlled vaccine efficacy curve that contrasts the controlled risk curve with placebo arm risk. We provide identification conditions and formulae that account for right censoring of the clinical endpoint and two-phase sampling of the biomarker, and consider G-computation estimation and inference under a semiparametric model such as the Cox model. We add modular approaches to sensitivity analysis that quantify robustness of CoP evidence to unmeasured confounding. We provide an application to two phase 3 trials of a dengue vaccine indicating that controlled risk of dengue strongly varies with 50$\%$ neutralizing antibody titer. Our work introduces controlled effects causal mediation analysis to immune CoP evaluation.

Antibody Fc characteristics and effector functions correlate with protection from symptomatic dengue virus type 3 infection

Preexisting cross-reactive antibodies have been implicated in both protection and pathogenesis during subsequent infections with different dengue virus (DENV) serotypes (DENV1-4). Nonetheless, humoral immune correlates and mechanisms of protection have remained elusive. Using a systems serology approach to evaluate humoral responses, we profiled plasma collected before inapparent or symptomatic secondary DENV3 infection from our pediatric cohort in Nicaragua. Children protected from symptomatic infections had more anti-envelope (E) and anti-nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) total immunoglobulin G (IgG), IgG4, and greater Fc effector functions than those with symptoms. Fc effector functions were also associated with protection from hemorrhagic manifestations in the pre-symptomatic group. Furthermore, in vitro virological assays using these plasma samples revealed that protection mediated by antibody-dependent complement deposition was associated with both lysis of virions and DENV-infected cells. These data suggest that E- and NS1-specific Fc functions may serve as correlates of protection, which can be potentially applied toward the design and evaluation of dengue vaccines.

Vaccine-induced antibodies to contemporary strains of dengue virus type 4 show a mechanistic correlate of protective immunity

The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses of humans. Several live-attenuated tetravalent DENV vaccines are at different stages of clinical development and approval. In children with no baseline immunity to DENVs, a leading vaccine (Dengvaxia) is efficacious against vaccine-matched DENV4 genotype II (GII) strains but not vaccine-mismatched DENV4 GI viruses. We use a panel of recombinant DENV4 viruses displaying GI or GII envelope (E) proteins to map Dengvaxia-induced neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) linked to protection. The vaccine stimulated antibodies that neutralize the DENV4 GII virus better than the GI virus. The neutralization differences map to 5 variable amino acids on the E protein located within a region targeted by DENV4 NAbs, supporting a mechanistic role for these epitope-specific NAbs in protection. In children with no baseline immunity to DENVs, levels of DENV4 serotype- and genotype-specific NAbs induced by vaccination are predictive of vaccine efficacy.

Beneath the surface: Amino acid variation underlying two decades of dengue virus antigenic dynamics in Bangkok, Thailand

Neutralizing antibodies are important correlates of protection against dengue. Yet, determinants of variation in neutralization across strains within the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) is imperfectly understood. Studies focus on structural DENV proteins, especially the envelope (E), the primary target of anti-DENV antibodies. Although changes in immune recognition (antigenicity) are often attributed to variation in epitope residues, viral processes influencing conformation and epitope accessibility also affect neutralizability, suggesting possible modulating roles of nonstructural proteins. We estimated effects of residue changes in all 10 DENV proteins on antigenic distances between 348 DENV collected from individuals living in Bangkok, Thailand (1994-2014). Antigenic distances were derived from response of each virus to a panel of twenty non-human primate antisera. Across 100 estimations, excluding 10% of virus pairs each time, 77 of 295 positions with residue variability in E consistently conferred antigenic effects; 52 were within ±3 sites of known binding sites of neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies, exceeding expectations from random assignments of effects to sites (p = 0.037). Effects were also identified for 16 sites on the stem/anchor of E which were only recently shown to become exposed under physiological conditions. For all proteins, except nonstructural protein 2A (NS2A), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) in predicting distances between pairs held out in each estimation did not outperform sequences of equal length derived from all proteins or E, suggesting that antigenic signals present were likely through linkage with E. Adjusted for E, we identified 62/219 sites embedding the excess signals in NS2A. Concatenating these sites to E additionally explained 3.4% to 4.0% of observed variance in antigenic distances compared to E alone (50.5% to 50.8%); RMSE outperformed concatenating E with sites from any protein of the virus (ΔRMSE, 95%IQR: 0.01, 0.05). Our results support examining antigenic determinants beyond the DENV surface.

Dengue viruses, even of the same serotype, are differentially recognized by preexisting antibodies of individuals. With antibody levels being an important indicator of infection risk and pathogenicity, understanding mechanisms underlying these differences are crucial for vaccine design and development. Investigations have primarily targeted surface regions of the envelope protein (E) where virus-antibody interactions were thought to primarily occur. However, the roles of non-surface regions of the E protein as well as nonstructural proteins has been limited. We looked at the entire virus to identify associations between specific changes in the protein sequence and differences in how viruses were recognized by antibodies. In addition to recovering known determinants on the surface, we found signals in other areas on the structural building blocks of the virus. We also identified additional signals on specific areas of a protein that does not form structures of the virus but orchestrate virus formation. Our results point towards broadening the frame of investigation to gain a more comprehensive understanding of mechanisms giving rise to antibody recognition of dengue viruses, and may aid the design and evaluation of vaccines and/or assays to characterize dengue immunity.

Peculiarities of Zika Immunity and Vaccine Development: Lessons from Dengue and the Contribution from Controlled Human Infection Model

The Zika virus (ZIKV) was first isolated from a rhesus macaque in the Zika forest of Uganda in 1947. Isolated cases were reported until 2007, when the first major outbreaks of Zika infection were reported from the Island of Yap in Micronesia and from French Polynesia in 2013. In 2015, ZIKV started to circulate in Latin America, and in 2016, ZIKV was considered by WHO to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern due to cases of Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS), a ZIKV-associated complication never observed before. After a peak of cases in 2016, the infection incidence dropped dramatically but still causes concern because of the associated microcephaly cases, especially in regions where the dengue virus (DENV) is endemic and co-circulates with ZIKV. A vaccine could be an important tool to mitigate CZS in endemic countries. However, the immunological relationship between ZIKV and other flaviviruses, especially DENV, and the low numbers of ZIKV infections are potential challenges for developing and testing a vaccine against ZIKV. Here, we discuss ZIKV vaccine development with the perspective of the immunological concerns implicated by DENV-ZIKV cross-reactivity and the use of a controlled human infection model (CHIM) as a tool to accelerate vaccine development.

Change Point Inference in the Presence of Missing Covariates for Principal Surrogate Evaluation in Vaccine Trials

We consider the use of threshold-based regression models for evaluating immune response biomarkers as principal surrogate markers of a vaccine's protective effect. Threshold-based regression models, which allow the relationship between a clinical outcome and a covariate to change dramatically across a threshold value in the covariate, have been studied by various authors under fully observed data. Limited research, however, has examined these models in the presence of missing covariates, such as the counterfactual potential immune responses of a participant in the placebo arm of a standard vaccine trial had s/he been assigned to the vaccine arm instead. Based on a hinge model for a threshold effect of the principal surrogate on vaccine efficacy, we develop a regression methodology that consists of two components: (1) The estimated likelihood method is employed to handle missing potential outcomes, and (2) a penalty is imposed on the estimated likelihood to ensure satisfactory finite sample performance. We develop a method that allows joint estimation of all model parameters as well as a two-step method that separates the estimation of the threshold parameter from the rest of the parameters. Stable iterative algorithms are developed to implement the two methods and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In simulation studies, the proposed estimators are shown to have satisfactory finite sample performance. The proposed methods are applied to analyze a real dataset collected from dengue vaccine efficacy trials to predict how vaccine efficacy varies with an individual's potential immune response if receiving vaccine.

Associations of human leukocyte antigen with neutralizing antibody titers in a tetravalent dengue vaccine phase 2 efficacy trial in Thailand

The recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV has shown efficacy against all four dengue serotypes. In this exploratory study (CYD59, NCT02827162), we evaluated potential associations of host human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles with dengue antibody responses, CYD-TDV vaccine efficacy, and virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) cases. Children 4-11 years old, who previously completed a phase 2b efficacy study of CYD-TDV in a single center in Thailand, were included in the study. Genotyping of HLA class I and II loci was performed by next-generation sequencing from DNA obtained from 335 saliva samples. Dengue neutralizing antibody titers (NAb) were assessed as a correlate of risk and protection. Regression analyses were used to assess associations between HLA alleles and NAb responses, vaccine efficacy, and dengue outcomes. Month 13 NAb log geometric mean titers (GMTs) were associated with decreased risk of VCD. In the vaccine group, HLA-DRB1*11 was significantly associated with higher NAb log GMT levels (beta: 0.76; p = 0.002, q = 0.13). Additionally, in the absence of vaccination, HLA associations were observed between the presence of DPB1*03:01 and increased NAb log GMT levels (beta: 1.24; p = 0.005, q = 0.17), and between DPB1*05:01 and reduced NAb log GMT levels (beta: -1.1; p = 0.001, q = 0.07). This study suggests associations of HLA alleles with NAb titers in the context of dengue outcomes. This study was registered with clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02827162.

Antigenic evolution of dengue viruses over 20 years

Infection with one of dengue viruses 1 to 4 (DENV1-4) induces protective antibodies against homotypic infection. However, a notable feature of dengue viruses is the ability to use preexisting heterotypic antibodies to infect Fcγ receptor–bearing immune cells, leading to higher viral load and immunopathological events that augment disease. We tracked the antigenic dynamics of each DENV serotype by using 1944 sequenced isolates from Bangkok, Thailand, between 1994 and 2014 (348 strains), in comparison with regional and global DENV antigenic diversity (64 strains). Over the course of 20 years, the Thailand DENV serotypes gradually evolved away from one another. However, for brief periods, the serotypes increased in similarity, with corresponding changes in epidemic magnitude. Antigenic evolution within a genotype involved a trade-off between two types of antigenic change (within-serotype and between-serotype), whereas genotype replacement resulted in antigenic change away from all serotypes. These findings provide insights into theorized dynamics in antigenic evolution.

A method to estimate probability of disease and vaccine efficacy from clinical trial immunogenicity data

Vaccine efficacy is often assessed by counting disease cases in a clinical trial. A new quantitative framework proposed here ("PoDBAY," Probability of Disease Bayesian Analysis), estimates vaccine efficacy (and confidence interval) using immune response biomarker data collected shortly after vaccination. Given a biomarker associated with protection, PoDBAY describes the relationship between biomarker and probability of disease as a sigmoid probability of disease ("PoD") curve. The PoDBAY framework is illustrated using clinical trial simulations and with data for influenza, zoster, and dengue virus vaccines. The simulations demonstrate that PoDBAY efficacy estimation (which integrates the PoD and biomarker data), can be accurate and more precise than the standard (case-count) estimation, contributing to more sensitive and specific decisions than threshold-based correlate of protection or case-count-based methods. For all three vaccine examples, the PoD fit indicates a substantial association between the biomarkers and protection, and efficacy estimated by PoDBAY from relatively little immunogenicity data is predictive of the standard estimate of efficacy, demonstrating how PoDBAY can provide early assessments of vaccine efficacy. Methods like PoDBAY can help accelerate and economize vaccine development using an immunological predictor of protection. For example, in the current effort against the COVID-19 pandemic it might provide information to help prioritize (rank) candidates both earlier in a trial and earlier in development.

Design of Monovalent and Chimeric Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine Using an Immunoinformatics Approach

An immunoinformatics technique was used to predict a monovalent amide immunogen candidate capable of producing therapeutic antibodies as well as a potent immunogen candidate capable of acting as a universal vaccination against all dengue fever virus serotypes. The capsid protein is an attractive goal for anti-DENV due to its position in the dengue existence cycle. The widely accessible immunological data, advances in antigenic peptide prediction using reverse vaccinology, and the introduction of molecular docking in immunoinformatics have directed vaccine manufacturing. The C-proteins of DENV-1-4 serotypes were known as antigens to assist with logical design. Binding epitopes for TC cells, TH cells, and B cells is predicted from structural dengue virus capsid proteins. Each T cell epitope of C-protein integrated with a B cell as a templet was used as a vaccine and produce antibodies in contrast to serotype of the dengue virus. A chimeric tetravalent vaccine was created by combining four vaccines, each representing four dengue serotypes, to serve as a standard vaccine candidate for all four Sero groups. The LKRARNRVS, RGFRKEIGR, KNGAIKVLR, and KAINVLRGF from dengue 1, dengue 2, dengue 3, and dengue 4 epitopes may be essential immunotherapeutic representatives for controlling outbreaks.

Analysis of Hospitalized and Severe Dengue Cases Over the 6 years of Follow-up of the Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine (CYD-TDV) Efficacy Trials in Asia and Latin America

Background

CYD-TDV, a live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine, has been approved for the prevention of symptomatic dengue in previously dengue exposed individuals. This post hoc analysis assessed hospitalized and severe virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) over the complete 6-year follow-up of 3 CYD-TDV efficacy studies (CYD14, CYD15, and CYD23/CYD57).

Methods

The main outcomes were hazard ratios (HRs) for hospitalized or severe VCD by baseline dengue serostatus, focusing on those who were seropositive, and by age at immunization (<9 years/≥9 years). Baseline dengue serostatus was measured or inferred using several methods. Hospitalized VCD cases were characterized in terms of clinical signs and symptoms and wild-type viremia level. Antibody persistence was assessed up to 5 years after the last injection.

Results

In those aged ≥9 years and baseline seropositive, CYD-TDV protected against hospitalized and severe VCD over 6 years compared to placebo (HR [95% confidence interval] multiple imputation from month 0 method, .19 [.12–.30] and .15 [.06–.39]; other methods were consistent). Vaccine protection was observed over the different study periods, being highest during the first 2 years. Evidence for a decreased risk of hospitalized and severe VCD was also observed in seropositive participants aged 6–8 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, and quantified dengue viremia from participants with hospitalized VCD were comparable between groups.

Conclusions

CYD-TDV demonstrated robust protection against hospitalized and severe VCD over the entire 6-year follow-up in participants who were seropositive and ≥9 years old. Protection was also observed in seropositive 6–8 year-olds.

Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00842530, NCT01983553, NCT01373281, NCT01374516.

Identification of potential biomarkers in dengue via integrated bioinformatic analysis

Dengue fever virus (DENV) is a global health threat that is becoming increasingly critical. However, the pathogenesis of dengue has not yet been fully elucidated. In this study, we employed bioinformatics analysis to identify potential biomarkers related to dengue fever and clarify their underlying mechanisms. The results showed that there were 668, 1901, and 8283 differentially expressed genes between the dengue-infected samples and normal samples in the GSE28405, GSE38246, and GSE51808 datasets, respectively. Through overlapping, a total of 69 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified, of which 51 were upregulated and 18 were downregulated. We identified twelve hub genes, including MX1, IFI44L, IFI44, IFI27, ISG15, STAT1, IFI35, OAS3, OAS2, OAS1, IFI6, and USP18. Except for IFI44 and STAT1, the others were statistically significant after validation. We predicted the related microRNAs (miRNAs) of these 12 target genes through the database miRTarBase, and finally obtained one important miRNA: has-mir-146a-5p. In addition, gene ontology (GO) and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment were carried out, and a protein–protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed to gain insight into the actions of DEGs. In conclusion, our study displayed the effectiveness of bioinformatics analysis methods in screening potential pathogenic genes in dengue fever and their underlying mechanisms. Further, we successfully predicted IFI44L and IFI6, as potential biomarkers with DENV infection, providing promising targets for the treatment of dengue fever to a certain extent.

Dengue fever is a mosquito borne viral disease caused by a single stranded RNA virus with four serotypes. DENV infection can cause various diseases, such as breakbone fever, haemorrhagic fever, and shock syndrome. As one of the most viral diseases leading to incidence rate and mortality in animal arthropods, Dengue fever has become an increasingly serious global health threat. However, the pathogenesis of dengue fever has not been fully elucidated. In this study, we used bioinformatics analysis to identify potential biomarkers associated with dengue fever and elucidate their underlying mechanisms. Finally, we predicted that IFI44L and IFI6 might be potential biomarkers of DENV infection. This finding provides a promising target for the treatment of dengue fever to a certain extent. In addition, the Gene Ontology (GO), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment, protein–protein interaction (PPI) network were implemented to analyze the key differentially expressed genes after DENV infection, and the related mechanisms were illuminated by this study.

Immunogenicity and Safety of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine Administered Concomitantly or Sequentially With Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccine in Boys and Girls 9-13 Years of Age in Malaysia: A Phase IIIb, Randomized, Open-label Study

BACKGROUND

Incorporating dengue vaccination within existing vaccination programs could help improve dengue vaccine coverage. We assessed the immunogenicity and safety of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine administered concomitantly or sequentially with a tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) in healthy children 9-13 years of age in Malaysia.

METHODS

In this phase IIIb, open-label, multicenter study (NCT02993757), participants were randomized 1:1 to receive 3 CYD-TDV doses 6 months apart and 2 doses of quadrivalent HPV vaccine concomitantly with, or 1 month before (sequentially), the first 2 CYD-TDV doses. Only baseline dengue-seropositive participants received the 3 doses. Antibody levels were measured at baseline and 28 days after each injection using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for HPV-6, -9, -16 and -18, and the 50% plaque reduction neutralization test for the 4 dengue serotypes; immunogenicity results are presented for baseline dengue-seropositive participants. Safety was assessed throughout the study for all participants.

RESULTS

At baseline, 197 of 528 (37.3%) randomized participants were dengue-seropositive [n = 109 (concomitant group) and n = 88 (sequential group)]. After the last HPV vaccine dose, antibody titers for HPV among baseline dengue-seropositive participants were similar between treatment groups, with between-group titer ratios close to 1 for HPV-6 and 0.8 for HPV-11, -16, and -18. After CYD-TDV dose 3, dengue antibody titers were similar between treatment groups for all serotypes [between-group ratios ranged from 0.783 (serotype 2) to 1.07 (serotype 4)]. No safety concerns were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

The immunogenicity and safety profiles of CYD-TDV and quadrivalent HPV vaccines were unaffected when administered concomitantly or sequentially in dengue-seropositive children.

Immunobridging efficacy of a tetravalent dengue vaccine against dengue and against hospitalized dengue from children/adolescents to adults in highly endemic countries

BACKGROUND

The recombinant tetravalent live-attenuated dengue vaccine based on the YF 17D vaccine virus backbone (CYD-TDV) demonstrated vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue of any serotype from month 13 to month 25 (VCD-DENV-AnyM13→M25) in the CYD14 (2-14-y-olds) and CYD15 (9-16-y-olds) phase 3 trials. Fifty percent plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) titers are a potential surrogate for immunobridging VE to adults.

METHODS

Using PRNT50 calibration datasets, we applied immunobridging approaches using baseline and/or M13 PRNT50 titers to estimate VE against VCD-DENV-AnyM0→M25 and against hospitalized VCD (HVCD)-DENV-AnyM0→M72 in hypothetical 18-45-y-old and 46-50-y-old CYD14 and CYD15 cohorts.

RESULTS

Baseline and M13 geometric mean PRNT50 titers were greater in 18-45-y-olds and in 46-50-y-olds vs 9-16-y-olds for most comparisons. Estimated VE (95% CIs against VCD-DENV-AnyM0→M25 ranged from 75.3% to 90.9% (52.5% to 100%) for 18-45-y-olds and 74.8% to 92.0% (53.4% to 100%) for 46-50-y-olds. Estimated VE (95% CIs) against HVCD-DENV-AnyM0→M72 ranged from 58.8% to 78.1% (40.9 to 98.9%) for 18-45-y-olds and 57.2% to 78.4% (40.5 to 97.6%) for 46-50-y-olds. Corresponding predictions among baseline-seropositive individuals yielded comparable or higher VE estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

VE M0→M25 against DENV-Any and VE against HVCD-DENV-AnyM0→M72 are both expected to be higher in 18-45 and 46-50-y-olds vs CYD14 and CYD15 9-16-y-olds.

Dengue vaccine breakthrough infections reveal properties of neutralizing antibodies linked to protection

The 4 serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses that infect humans. Live attenuated tetravalent DENV vaccines are at different phases of clinical testing. DENV vaccine developers have relied on neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) as a correlate of protection. A leading tetravalent vaccine (Dengvaxia) stimulated NAbs to the 4 DENV serotypes, yet overall vaccine efficacy was low in children who were DENV seronegative at baseline before vaccination. We compared the properties of (a) NAbs induced by WT DENV1 or DENV3 infections, which are strongly correlated with protection from repeat infections, and (b) NAbs induced by Dengvaxia in individuals who subsequently experienced DENV1 or DENV3 breakthrough infections. WT infections induced NAbs that recognized epitopes unique (type specific) to each serotype, whereas the vaccine stimulated qualitatively different NAbs that recognized epitopes conserved (crossreactive) between serotypes. Our results indicate that, among children who were DENV-seronegative at baseline, unbalanced replication of the DENV type 4 vaccine component in the tetravalent vaccine stimulates Abs capable of crossneutralizing DENV1 and DENV3 in vitro, but not protecting in vivo. In DENV-seronegative individuals who are vaccinated, we propose that type-specific NAbs are a better correlate of protection than total levels of NAbs.

Analysis of Neutralizing Antibodies as a Correlate of Instantaneous Risk of Hospitalized Dengue in Placebo Recipients of Dengue Vaccine Efficacy Trials

BACKGROUND

In the CYD14 (NCT01373281) and CYD15 (NCT01374516) dengue vaccine efficacy trials, Month 13 neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers correlated inversely with risk of symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) between Month 13 (one month post-final-dose) and Month 25. We assessed nAb titer as a correlate of instantaneous risk of hospitalized VCD (HVCD), for which participants were continually surveilled for 72 months.

METHODS

Using longitudinal nAb titers from the per-protocol immunogenicity subsets, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of HVCD by current nAb titer value for three correlate/endpoint pairs: average titer across all four serotypes/HVCD of any serotype (HVCD-Any), serotype-specific titer/homologous HVCD, and serotype-specific titer/heterologous HVCD.

RESULTS

Baseline-seropositive placebo recipients with higher average titer had lower instantaneous risk of HVCD-Any in 2-16-year-olds and in 9-16-year-olds (HR 0.26 or 0.15 per 10-fold increase in average titer by two methods, 95% CIs 0.14 to 0.45 and 0.07 to 0.34, respectively) pooled across both trials. Results were similar for homologous HVCD. There was evidence suggesting increased HVCD-Any risk in participants with low average titer (1:10 to 1:100) compared to seronegative participants (HR 1.85, 95% CI 0.93 to 3.68).

CONCLUSIONS

Natural infection-induced nAbs were inversely associated with hospitalized dengue, upon exceeding a relatively low threshold.

Inference on treatment effect modification by biomarker response in a three-phase sampling design

An objective in randomized clinical trials is the evaluation of "principal surrogates," which consists of analyzing how the treatment effect on a clinical endpoint varies over principal strata subgroups defined by an intermediate response outcome under both or one of the treatment assignments. The latter effect modification estimand has been termed the marginal causal effect predictiveness (mCEP) curve. This objective was addressed in two randomized placebo-controlled Phase 3 dengue vaccine trials for an antibody response biomarker whose sampling design rendered previously developed inferential methods highly inefficient due to a three-phase sampling design. In this design, the biomarker was measured in a case-cohort sample and a key baseline auxiliary strongly associated with the biomarker (the "baseline surrogate measure") was only measured in a further sub-sample. We propose a novel approach to estimation of the mCEP curve in such three-phase sampling designs that avoids the restrictive "placebo structural risk" modeling assumption common to past methods and that further improves robustness by the use of non-parametric kernel smoothing for biomarker density estimation. Additionally, we develop bootstrap-based procedures for pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals and testing of four relevant hypotheses about the mCEP curve. We investigate the finite-sample properties of the proposed methods and compare them to those of an alternative method making the placebo structural risk assumption. Finally, we apply the novel and alternative procedures to the two dengue vaccine trial data sets.

Immunogenicity and safety of a tetravalent dengue vaccine and a bivalent HPV vaccine given concomitantly or sequentially in girls aged 9 to 14 years in Mexico

Dengue is endemic in several regions, and the global incidence is increasing. The recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) is recommended for dengue seropositive individuals ≥ 9 years. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is recommended for girls aged 9-14 years to prevent HPV infection-related cancers. This study assessed the immunogenicity and safety of a bivalent HPV (types 16 and 18) vaccine and CYD-TDV when co-administered concomitantly or sequentially. This was a Phase IIIb, randomized, open-label, multicenter study in girls aged 9-14 years in Mexico (NCT02979535). Participants were randomized 1:1 to receive three doses of CYD-TDV 6 months apart and two doses of bivalent HPV vaccine either concomitantly with, or 1 month before (sequentially), the first 2 CYD-TDV doses. Antibody levels were measured at baseline and 28-days after each vaccine dose for all participants, using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for HPV-16 and HPV-18 antibodies, and a plaque reduction neutralization test for the four dengue serotypes; results are reported only for participants who were seropositive at baseline. Safety was assessed for all randomized participants throughout the study. Of the randomized participants, 305/478 (63.8%) were seropositive for dengue at baseline: 154 in the concomitant group and 151 in the sequential group. After the last HPV vaccine dose, the antibody titers for HPV were comparable in seropositive participants between treatment groups, with between group titer ratios of 0.966 for HPV-16 and 0.999 for HPV-18. After dose 3 of CYD-TDV, antibody titers were comparable for the concomitant and sequential groups across all serotypes, with between-group ratios close to 1 (serotype 1: 0.977; serotype 2: 0.911; serotype 3: 0.921; serotype 4: 0.931). CYD-TDV and a bivalent HPV vaccine administered concomitantly or sequentially in dengue seropositive girls aged 9-14 years elicited comparable immune responses with similar safety profiles.

Persistence of neutralizing antibody and its protective efficacy induced by a live attenuated tetravalent dengue vaccine, KD-382, in cynomolgus monkeys

An effective dengue vaccine should induce a long-lasting immune response against all four serotypes simultaneously with a minimum number of immunizations. Our live attenuated tetravalent dengue vaccine candidate, KD-382, was developed using a classical host range mutation strategy (no addition of artificial genetic modification). In our previous study, cynomolgus monkeys immunized with a single dose of KD-382 seroconverted to all four serotypes. However, it is important to determine if neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) induced by KD-382 can work as a long-lasting immune response to prevent dengue. In this study, a single dose of KD-382 induced a strong NAb response against all four serotypes in cynomolgus monkeys. We also confirmed that NAb titers against all four serotypes persist for at least five years, indicating its high potential as a dengue vaccine candidate. Next, we evaluated the effect of pre-existing dengue immunity on NAb responses induced by KD-382. We administered KD-382 to cynomolgus monkeys pre-administered one of the monovalent parental wild-type strains 60 days before vaccination. Regardless of the pre-immunized serotype, all the monkeys showed sufficient tetravalent NAb responses, which lasted for over two years. All the KD-382 vaccinated monkeys were then challenged with different parental wild-type viruses than that used for pre-administration; viral RNA in the serum was less than the lower limit of quantification, indicating complete protection against secondary heterologous dengue infection without any harmful disease enhancement. Consequently, KD-382 successfully induced a long-lasting and protective tetravalent NAb response in monkeys, suggesting that KD-382 is a promising vaccine candidate usable for both dengue seronegative and seropositive individuals.

Boosting can explain patterns of fluctuations of ratios of inapparent to symptomatic dengue virus infections

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease worldwide, and the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes circulate endemically in many tropical and subtropical regions. Numerous studies have shown that the majority of DENV infections are inapparent, and that the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections (I/S) fluctuates substantially year-to-year. For example, in the ongoing Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) in Nicaragua, which was established in 2004, the I/S ratio has varied from 16.5:1 in 2006-2007 to 1.2:1 in 2009-2010. However, the mechanisms explaining these large fluctuations are not well understood. We hypothesized that in dengue-endemic areas, frequent boosting (i.e., exposures to DENV that do not lead to extensive viremia and result in a less than fourfold rise in antibody titers) of the immune response can be protective against symptomatic disease, and this can explain fluctuating I/S ratios. We formulate mechanistic epidemiologic models to examine the epidemiologic effects of protective homologous and heterologous boosting of the antibody response in preventing subsequent symptomatic DENV infection. We show that models that include frequent boosts that protect against symptomatic disease can recover the fluctuations in the I/S ratio that we observe, whereas a classic model without boosting cannot. Furthermore, we show that a boosting model can recover the inverse relationship between the number of symptomatic cases and the I/S ratio observed in the PDCS. These results highlight the importance of robust dengue control efforts, as intermediate dengue control may have the potential to decrease the protective effects of boosting.

Humoral and cellular immunogenicity and safety following a booster dose of a tetravalent dengue vaccine 5+ years after completion of the primary series in Singapore: 2-year follow-up of a randomized phase II, placebo-controlled trial

The tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) is approved for use as a 3-dose series for the prevention of dengue in seropositive individuals ≥9 years. A randomized, placebo-controlled, phase II study of a booster dose of CYD-TDV in individuals who completed the 3-dose schedule >5 years previously (NCT02824198), demonstrated that a booster restored neutralizing antibody titers to post-dose 3 levels. We present additional immunogenicity assessments up to 24 months post-booster, and B- and T-cell responses in a participant subset. Participants aged 9-45 years that had received all three doses of CYD-TDV were randomized 3:1 to receive a booster dose of CYD-TDV (n = 89) or placebo (n = 29). Neutralizing antibody levels at Months 1, 6, 12, and 24 post-booster were assessed by plaque reduction neutralization test. In a subset, B-cell responses were assessed by a fluorescent immunospot assay, and T-cells analyzed by flow cytometry at Days 0, 7, 12, Months 1 and 12. We observed an increase of antibody titers Month 1 post-booster, then a gradual decline to Month 24. In the CYD-TDV booster group, an increase in plasmablasts was seen at Day 7 declining by Day 14, an increase in memory B-cells was observed at Day 28 with no persistence at Month 12. CYD-TDV booster recalled a CD8+ T-cell response, dominated by IFN-γ secretion, which decreased 12 months post-booster. This study showed a short-term increase in antibody titers and then gradual decrease following CYD-TDV booster injection >5 years after primary immunization, and the presence of memory B-cells activated following the booster, but with low persistence.

A tetravalent live attenuated dengue virus vaccine stimulates balanced immunity to multiple serotypes in humans

The four-dengue virus (DENV) serotypes infect several hundred million people annually. For the greatest safety and efficacy, tetravalent DENV vaccines are designed to stimulate balanced protective immunity to all four serotypes. However, this has been difficult to achieve. Clinical trials with a leading vaccine demonstrated that unbalanced replication and immunodominance of one vaccine component over others can lead to low efficacy and vaccine enhanced severe disease. The Laboratory of Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health has developed a live attenuated tetravalent DENV vaccine (TV003), which is currently being tested in phase 3 clinical trials. Here we report, our study to determine if TV003 stimulate balanced and serotype-specific (TS) neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses to each serotype. Serum samples from twenty-one dengue-naive individuals participated under study protocol CIR287 (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02021968) are analyzed 6 months after vaccination. Most subjects (76%) develop TS nAbs to 3 or 4 DENV serotypes, indicating immunity is induced by each vaccine component. Vaccine-induced TS nAbs map to epitopes known to be targets of nAbs in people infected with wild type DENVs. Following challenge with a partially attenuated strain of DENV2, all 21 subjects are protected from the efficacy endpoints. However, some vaccinated individuals develop post challenge nAb boost, while others mount post-challenge antibody responses that are consistent with sterilizing immunity. TV003 vaccine induced DENV2 TS nAbs are associated with sterilizing immunity. Our results indicate that nAbs to TS epitopes on each serotype may be a better correlate than total levels of nAbs currently used for guiding DENV vaccine development.

Multivalent vaccines that confer protection to multiple serotypes of Dengue virus have been established. Here the authors examine the presence of vaccine induced multivalent antibodies and how these link to protection in a human challenge model of Dengue virus.

Identification of Dengue Virus Serotype 3 Specific Antigenic Sites Targeted by Neutralizing Human Antibodies

The rational design of dengue virus (DENV) vaccines requires a detailed understanding of the molecular basis for antibody-mediated immunity. The durably protective antibody response to DENV after primary infection is serotype specific. However, there is an incomplete understanding of the antigenic determinants for DENV type-specific (TS) antibodies, especially for DENV serotype 3, which has only one well-studied, strongly neutralizing human monoclonal antibody (mAb). Here, we investigated the human B cell response in children after natural DENV infection in the endemic area of Nicaragua and isolated 15 DENV3 TS mAbs recognizing the envelope (E) glycoprotein. Functional epitope mapping of these mAbs and small animal prophylaxis studies revealed a complex landscape with protective epitopes clustering in at least 6-7 antigenic sites. Potently neutralizing TS mAbs recognized sites principally in E glycoprotein domains I and II, and patterns suggest frequent recognition of quaternary structures on the surface of viral particles.

Innovative trial designs and analyses for vaccine clinical development

In the past decades, the world has experienced several major virus outbreaks, e.g. West African Ebola outbreak, Zika virus in South America and most recently global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Many vaccines have been developed to prevent a variety of infectious diseases successfully. However, several infections have not been preventable so far, like COVID-19, which induces an immediate urgent need for effective vaccines. These emerging infectious diseases often pose unprecedent challenges for the global heath community as well as the conventional vaccine development paradigm. With a long and costly traditional vaccine development process, there are extensive needs in innovative vaccine trial designs and analyses, which aim to design more efficient vaccines trials. Featured with reduced development timeline, less resource consuming or improved estimate for the endpoints of interests, these more efficient trials bring effective medicine to target population in a faster and less costly way. In this paper, we will review a few vaccine trials equipped with adaptive design features, Bayesian designs that accommodate historical data borrowing, the master protocol strategy emerging during COVID-19 vaccine development, Real-World-Data (RWD) embedded trials and the correlate of protection framework and relevant research works. We will also discuss some statistical methodologies that improve the vaccine efficacy, safety and immunogenicity analyses. Innovative clinical trial designs and analyses, together with advanced research technologies and deeper understanding of the human immune system, are paving the way for the efficient development of new vaccines in the future.

A Hybrid Approach for the Stratified Mark-Specific Proportional Hazards Model with Missing Covariates and Missing Marks, with Application to Vaccine Efficacy Trials

Deployment of the recently licensed CYD-TDV dengue vaccine requires understanding of how the risk of dengue disease in vaccine recipients depends jointly on a host biomarker measured after vaccination (neutralization titer - NAb) and on a "mark" feature of the dengue disease failure event (the amino acid sequence distance of the dengue virus to the dengue sequence represented in the vaccine). The CYD14 phase 3 trial of CYD-TDV measured NAb via case-cohort sampling and the mark in dengue disease failure events, with about a third missing marks. We addressed the question of interest by developing inferential procedures for the stratified mark-specific proportional hazards model with missing covariates and missing marks. Two hybrid approaches are investigated that leverage both augmented inverse probability weighting and nearest neighborhood hot deck multiple imputation. The two approaches differ in how the imputed marks are pooled in estimation. Our investigation shows that NNHD imputation can lead to biased estimation without properly selected neighborhood. Simulations show that the developed hybrid methods perform well with unbiased NNHD imputations from proper neighborhood selection. The new methods applied to CYD14 show that NAb is strongly inversely associated with risk of dengue disease in vaccine recipients, more strongly against dengue viruses with shorter distances.

Immunogenicity and safety of simplified vaccination schedules for the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine in healthy individuals aged 9-50 years (CYD65): a randomised, controlled, phase 2, non-inferiority study

BACKGROUND

Three doses of the licensed tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia, Sanofi Pasteur, Lyon France) are immunogenic and effective against symptomatic dengue in individuals aged 9 years and older who are dengue seropositive. Previous trials have provided some evidence that antibody responses elicited after just one dose or two doses of CYD-TDV might be similar to those elicited after three doses. We compared antibody responses following one-dose, two-dose, and three-dose vaccination regimens in individuals who were dengue seropositive at baseline up to 1 year after the last injection.

METHODS

In this randomised, controlled, phase 2, non-inferiority study (CYD65), healthy individuals aged 9-50 years were recruited from the community in three sites in Colombia and three sites in the Philippines. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1), using a permuted block method with stratification by site and age group, to receive, at 6-month intervals (on day 0, month 6, and month 12), three doses of CYD-TDV (three-dose group), one dose of placebo (on day 0) and two doses of CYD-TDV (at months 6 and 12; two-dose group), or two doses of placebo (on day 0 and month 6) and one dose of CYD-TDV (at month 12; one-dose group). Each dose of CYD-TDV was 0·5 mL, administered subcutaneously into the deltoid of the upper arm. Participants, study staff, investigators, and the funder were masked to group assignment. The co-primary endpoints were geometric mean titres (GMTs) of neutralising antibodies against each dengue virus serotype at 28 days and 1 year after the last vaccine injection. After a protocol amendment during the conduct of the study, the original co-primary objectives of non-inferiority of the one-dose and two-dose groups to the three-dose group were altered to include non-inferiority of the two-dose group to the three-dose group only, to be assessed in individuals who were dengue seropositive at baseline. Non-inferiority was shown if the lower limit of the 95% CI for the ratio of GMTs (GMR) at 28 days and 1 year between groups was more than 0·5 for each serotype. The analysis of the coprimary objectives was done in the per-protocol analysis dataset, which included all participants who had been vaccinated, had no protocol deviations, and had a valid serology test result for at least one dengue serotype at 28 days after the third injection. Safety was assessed throughout in all participants who received at least one injection of study drug, regardless of serostatus. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02628444, and is closed to accrual.

FINDINGS

Between May 2, 2016, and Sept 16, 2016, we recruited and enrolled 1050 individuals, of whom 1048 received at least one injection and 993 had at least one blood sample taken (full-analysis dataset; 333 in three-dose group, 328 in two-dose group, and 332 in one-dose group). 860 (86·6%) of 993 participants in the full-analysis dataset were dengue seropositive at baseline. Non-inferiority (two dose vs three dose) was shown for each serotype at both 28 days and 1 year among dengue-seropositive participants (number of participants assessed: 272 [two-dose group], 265 [three-dose group] at 28 days; and 190 [two-dose group], 185 [three-dose group] at 1 year). At 28 days after the last injection, neutralising antibody GMTs were 899 (95% CI 752-1075) in the two-dose group versus 822 (700-964) in the three dose group against dengue serotype 1 (GMR 1·09 [95% CI 0·86-1·39]); 869 (754-1002) versus 875 (770-995) against serotype 2 (GMR 0·99 [0·82-1·20]); 599 (524-685) versus 610 (535-694) against serotype 3 (GMR 0·98 [0·82-1·18]); and 510 (453-575) versus 531 (470-601) against serotype 4 (GMR 0·96 [0·81-1·14]). At year 1, GMTs had decreased but remained above baseline for all serotypes: 504 (95% CI 403-630) in the two-dose group versus 490 (398-604) in the three-dose group against serotype 1 (GMR 1·03 [0·76-1·40]); 737 (611-888) versus 821 (704-957) against serotype 2 (GMR 0·90 [0·71-1·14]); 437 (368-519) versus 477 (405-561) against serotype 3 (GMR 0·92 [0·72-1·16]); and 238 (205-277) versus 270 (235-310) against serotype 4 (GMR 0·88 [0·72-1·09]). Reactogenicity profiles were similar across treatment groups. Most unsolicited adverse events after any injection were non-serious and systemic in nature. During the study, 60 serious adverse events were reported in 58 participants (14 in three-dose group, 26 in two-dose group, 18 in one-dose group), mostly infection and infestations or injury, poisoning, and procedural complications. No serious adverse events of special interest or admissions to hospital for dengue occurred. Two deaths occurred, unrelated to study treatment.

INTERPRETATION

A two-dose CYD-TDV regimen might be an alternative to the licensed three-dose regimen in individuals who are dengue seropositive at baseline and aged 9 years and older. Vaccination with a reduced number of doses could lead to improved vaccine compliance and coverage, especially in low-resource settings.

FUNDING

Sanofi Pasteur.

Immune Response Persistence and Safety of a Booster Dose of the Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine in Adolescents and Adults Who Previously Completed the 3-dose Schedule 4-5 Years Earlier in Latin America: A Randomized Placebo-controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

We previously described an increased immune response 28 days after a booster dose of the live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) in healthy adolescents and adults in Latin America (CYD64, NCT02623725). This follow-up study evaluated immune response persistence and safety of a CYD-TDV booster dose up to Month (M) 24 post-booster.

METHODS

This study included 250 participants who previously received 3 primary doses of CYD-TDV in the CYD13 (NCT00993447) and CYD30 (NCT01187433) studies, and who were randomized 4-5 years later to receive a CYD-TDV booster or placebo (3:1). Dengue neutralizing antibodies against the parental dengue virus strains were assessed using the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) at M6, M12, and M24 post-booster. Post-booster memory B-cell responses were assessed in a subset of participants using the FluoroSpot assay up to M12 post-booster.

RESULTS

In the CYD-TDV group (n = 187), dengue neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) declined from the peak at day 28 through to M24 for all serotypes. GMTs at M24 were similar to those at pre-booster among baseline dengue seropositives. A similar trend was observed for baseline dengue seronegatives, albeit at a lower magnitude. Previous vaccination-induced detectable B-cell memory responses in seropositives and seronegatives that decreased to pre-booster levels at M12 post-booster. The CYD-TDV booster dose was well-tolerated.

CONCLUSIONS

In baseline dengue seropositives, following a CYD-TDV booster dose administered 4-5 years after primary immunization, dengue neutralizing antibody GMTs and B-cell memory responses peaked in the short-term before gradually decreasing over time. A CYD-TDV booster dose could improve protection against dengue during outbreak periods.

Protective and enhancing interactions among dengue viruses 1-4 and Zika virus

Dengue viruses 1-4 (DENV 1-4) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are closely related flaviviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes that co-circulate in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and Oceania. Here, we review recent and historical literature on in vitro experiments, animal models, and clinical and epidemiological studies to describe how the sequence of DENV 1-4 and ZIKV infections modulates subsequent dengue and Zika disease outcome. Overall, we find these interactions are asymmetric. Immunity from a prior DENV infection or a prior ZIKV infection can enhance future severe dengue disease for some DENV serotypes while protecting against other serotypes. Further, prior DENV immunity has not been shown to enhance future uncomplicated or severe Zika and instead appears to be protective. Interestingly, secondary ZIKV infection induces type-specific ZIKV immunity but only generates weakly cross-neutralizing anti-DENV/ZIKV immunity, consistent with risk of future dengue disease. In contrast, secondary DENV infection induces strongly cross-neutralizing antibodies that protect against subsequent severe dengue disease. These immunologic interactions may be explained by differences in virion structure between DENV 1-4 and ZIKV, which modulate thermostability, susceptibility to neutralization, and cell infectivity. Overall, these observations are important for the understanding and prediction of epidemics and the development and evaluation of dengue and Zika vaccines.

Zika virus infection enhances future risk of severe dengue disease

The Zika pandemic sparked intense interest in whether immune interactions among dengue virus serotypes 1 to 4 (DENV1 to -4) extend to the closely related Zika virus (ZIKV). We investigated prospective pediatric cohorts in Nicaragua that experienced sequential DENV1 to -3 (2004 to 2015), Zika (2016 to 2017), and DENV2 (2018 to 2020) epidemics. Risk of symptomatic DENV2 infection and severe disease was elevated by one prior ZIKV infection, one prior DENV infection, or one prior DENV infection followed by one ZIKV infection, compared with being flavivirus-naïve. By contrast, multiple prior DENV infections reduced dengue risk. Further, although high preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers protected against DENV1, DENV3, and ZIKV disease, intermediate titers induced by previous ZIKV or DENV infection enhanced future risk of DENV2 disease and severity, as well as DENV3 severity. The observation that prior ZIKV infection can modulate dengue disease severity like a DENV serotype poses challenges to development of dengue and Zika vaccines.