Identifying deaths from AIDS in South Africa

Accounting for misclassified and unknown cause of death data in vital registration systems for estimating trends in HIV mortality

INTRODUCTION

Misclassification of HIV deaths can substantially diminish the usefulness of cause of death data for decision-making. In this study, we describe the methods developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study to account for the misclassified cause of death data from vital registration systems for estimating HIV mortality in 132 countries and territories.

METHODS

The cause of death data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and official country-specific mortality databases. We implemented two steps to adjust the raw cause of death data: (1) redistributing garbage codes to underlying causes of death, including HIV/AIDS by applying methods, such as analysis of multiple cause data and proportional redistribution, and (2) reassigning HIV deaths misclassified as other causes to HIV/AIDS by examining the age patterns of underlying causes in location and years with and without HIV epidemics.

RESULTS

In 132 countries, during the period from 1990 to 2018, 1,848,761 deaths were reported as caused by HIV/AIDS. After garbage code redistribution in these 132 countries, this number increased to 4,165,015 deaths. An additional 1,944,291 deaths were added through correction of HIV deaths misclassified as other causes in 44 countries. The proportion of HIV deaths derived from garbage code redistribution decreased over time, from 0.4 in 1990 to 0.1 in 2018. The proportion of deaths derived from HIV misclassification correction peaked at 0.4 in 2006 and declined afterwards to 0.08 in 2018. The greatest contributors to garbage code redistribution were "immunodeficiency antibody" (ICD 9: 279-279.1; ICD 10: D80-D80.9) and "immunodeficiency other" (ICD 9: 279, 279.5-279.9; ICD 10: D83-D84.9, D89, D89.8-D89.9), which together contributed 77% of all redistributed deaths at their peak in 1995. Respiratory tuberculosis (ICD 9: 010-012.9; ICD 10: A10-A14, A15-A16.9) contributed the greatest proportion of all HIV misclassified deaths (25-62% per year) over the most years.

CONCLUSIONS

Correcting for miscoding and misclassification of cause of death data can enhance the utility of the data for analyzing trends in HIV mortality and tracking progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal targets.

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

BACKGROUND

Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments.

METHODS

We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings.

RESULTS

The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.

Prevalence and associated risk factors of peripheral artery disease in virologically suppressed HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy in Kwara state, Nigeria: a cross sectional study

Background

The association between HIV and cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been reported in several studies. However, there is paucity of information on the prevalence of subclinical disease as well as its associated risk factors in sub-Saharan African population. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and associated risk factors of peripheral artery disease (PAD) among virologically suppressed HIV-infected participants in Kwara State, Nigeria.

Methods

This study was conducted between July 2018 and December 2018. A total of 150 HIV-infected participants aged between 20 and 55 years and 50 HIV non-infected age-matched controls were randomly recruited in the study. Sociodemographic, anthropometric and clinical data were collected using a well-structured questionnaire. Ankle brachial index (ABI) was measured, PAD was defined as ABI of < 0.9. Cryopreserved serum was used to evaluate lipid profile parameters. Student’s t-test and Chi-square were used to compare continuous and categorical variables. Associations of CVD risk factors and clinical data, and lipid profile with low ABI were assessed using logistic regression analysis.

Results

The study participants had a mean age of 43.73 ± 8.74, majority were females (72.7%) with a mean duration on ART of 7.73 ± 3.52 years. Hypertension was present in 15.9%, diabetes 4%, family history of CVD 8.6% and metabolic syndrome 17.3% in the study group. The study participants recorded significantly lower mean values for ABI, HDL-C and significantly higher mean values of TG (P < 0.05) compared to the control group. The prevalence of low ABI (14.6%) was higher in the study group compared to the control group (2%). A significantly negative correlation between ABI and duration on ART (r = − 0.163, P = 0.041) and a positive correlation between viral load and TG were observed in the study group. TC (OR 1.784, P = 0.011), LDL-C (OR 1.824, P = 0.010) and CD4 cell count < 200 cells/mm³ (OR 2.635, P = 0.364) were associated with low ABI in the participants.

Conclusion

Viral suppression with combined antiretroviral therapy and long term treatment is associated with dyslipidaemia, with increased risk of PAD. Prevalence of PAD in virologically-suppressed individuals does not differ from the controls in the population studied.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7496-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HIV-attributable causes of death in the medical ward at the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Data on the association between HIV infection and deaths from underlying medical conditions are needed to understand and assess the impact of HIV on mortality. We present data on mortality in the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital (CHBH) South Africa and analyse the relationship between each cause of death and HIV.

METHODS

From 2006 to 2009 data were collected on 15,725 deaths including age, sex, day of admittance and of death, HIV status, ART initiation and CD4+ cell counts. Causes of death associated with HIV were cases, causes of death not associated with HIV were controls. We calculate the odds-ratios (ORs) for being HIV-positive and for each AIDS related condition the disease-attributable fraction (DAF) and the population-attributable fraction (PAF) due to HIV for cases relative to controls.

RESULTS

Among those that died, the prevalence of HIV was 61% and of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) related conditions was 69%. The HIV-attributable fraction was 36% in the whole sample and 60% in those that were HIV-positive. Cryptococcosis, Kaposi's sarcoma and Pneumocystis jirovecii, TB, gastroenteritis and anaemia were highly predictive of HIV with odds ratios for being HIV-positive ranging from 8 to 124, while genito-urinary conditions, meningitis, other respiratory conditions and sepsis, lymphoma and conditions of skin and bone were significantly associated with HIV with odds ratios for being HIV-positive ranging from 3 to 8. Most of the deaths attributable to HIV were among those dying of TB or of other respiratory conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The high prevalence of HIV among those that died, peaking at 70% in those aged 30 years but still 7% in those aged 80 years, demonstrates the impact of the HIV epidemic on adult mortality and on hospital services and the extent to which early anti-retroviral treatment would have reduced the burden of both. These data make it possible to better assess mortality and morbidity due to HIV in this still high prevalence setting and, in particular, to identify those causes of death that are most strongly associated with HIV.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Epidemiological metrics and benchmarks for a transition in the HIV epidemic

Peter Godfrey-Faussett and colleagues present six epidemiological metrics for tracking progress in reducing the public health threat of HIV.

Mortality trends and differentials in South Africa from 1997 to 2012: second National Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND

The poor health of South Africans is known to be associated with a quadruple disease burden. In the second National Burden of Disease (NBD) study, we aimed to analyse cause of death data for 1997-2012 and develop national, population group, and provincial estimates of the levels and causes of mortality.

METHOD

We used underlying cause of death data from death notifications for 1997-2012 obtained from Statistics South Africa. These data were adjusted for completeness using indirect demographic techniques for adults and comparison with survey and census estimates for child mortality. A regression approach was used to estimate misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths and so-called garbage codes were proportionally redistributed by age, sex, and population group population group (black African, Indian or Asian descent, white [European descent], and coloured [of mixed ancestry according to the preceding categories]). Injury deaths were estimated from additional data sources. Age-standardised death rates were calculated with mid-year population estimates and the WHO age standard. Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease (IHME GBD) estimates for South Africa were obtained from the IHME GHDx website for comparison.

FINDINGS

All-cause age-standardised death rates increased rapidly since 1997, peaked in 2006 and then declined, driven by changes in HIV/AIDS. Mortality from tuberculosis, non-communicable diseases, and injuries decreased slightly. In 2012, HIV/AIDS caused the most deaths (29·1%) followed by cerebrovascular disease (7·5%) and lower respiratory infections (4·9%). All-cause age-standardised death rates were 1·7 times higher in the province with the highest death rate compared to the province with the lowest death rate, 2·2 times higher in black Africans compared to whites, and 1·4 times higher in males compared with females. Comparison with the IHME GBD estimates for South Africa revealed substantial differences for estimated deaths from all causes, particularly HIV/AIDS and interpersonal violence.

INTERPRETATION

This study shows the reversal of HIV/AIDS, non-communicable disease, and injury mortality trends in South Africa during the study period. Mortality differentials show the importance of social determinants, raise concerns about the quality of health services, and provide relevant information to policy makers for addressing inequalities. Differences between GBD estimates for South Africa and this study emphasise the need for more careful calibration of global models with local data.

FUNDING

South African Medical Research Council's Flagships Awards Project.

Gendered differences in AIDS and AIDS-related cause of death among youth with secondary education in South Africa, 2009-2011

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is higher among females than males in Sub-Saharan Africa. Education is associated with better health outcomes. For this and other reasons, African countries have made a concerted effort to increase youth education rates. However, in South Africa males have lower secondary education rates than females, yet females have a higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This study examines if a gender disparity exists in AIDS mortality rates among youth with secondary education in South Africa.

METHODS

This study uses descriptive statistics and life table techniques. A sample of 4386 deaths of youth with secondary education is used. Of this total sample, 987 deaths were among males and 340 were among females with secondary education.

RESULTS

This study shows that AIDS mortality is higher among females than males in South Africa. Males and females with secondary education have lower AIDS mortality than all males and females in the population, yet the rates are higher for females. Using cause-deleted life tables, the probability of youth dying from HIV/AIDS practically disappears for both males and females. Odds ratio calculations show that secondary education does not have a protective effect from AIDS mortality among male and female youth.

CONCLUSION

Given the gendered difference in AIDS mortality among youth with secondary education, efforts to increase secondary education among males and further research into other factors exacerbating AIDS mortality among females with secondary education is needed in the country.

Socio-economic differences in HIV/AIDS mortality in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To quantify socio-economic differences in the risk of HIV/AIDS mortality in South Africa for different measures of socio-economic status.

METHODS

Systematic literature search in Web of Knowledge and PubMed. Measures of relative risk (RR) were pooled separately for education, income, assets score and employment status as measures of socio-economic status, using inverse-variance weighted DerSimonian-Laird random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Ten studies were eligible for inclusion comprising over 175 000 participants and 6700 deaths. For income (RR 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-2.09), assets score (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.12-2.36) and employment status (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.21-1.92), persons of low socio-economic status had an over 50% higher risk of dying from HIV/AIDS. The RR of 1.10 for education was not significant (95% CI 0.74-1.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should identify effective strategies to reduce HIV/AIDS mortality and alleviate the consequences of HIV/AIDS deaths, particularly for poorer households.

HIV/AIDS in South Africa: how many people died from the disease between 1997 and 2010?

OBJECTIVES

Empirical estimates of the number of HIV/AIDS deaths are important for planning, budgeting, and calibrating models. However, there is an extensive misattribution of HIV/AIDS as an underlying cause-of-death. This study estimates the true numbers of AIDS deaths from South African vital statistics between 1997 and 2010.

METHODS

Individual-level cause-of-death data were grouped according to a local burden of disease list and source causes (i.e. causes under which AIDS deaths are misclassified) that recorded a rapid increase. After adjusting for completeness of registration, the mortality rate of the source causes, by age and sex, was regressed on the lagged HIV prevalence to estimate the rate of increase correlated with HIV. Background trends in the source-cause mortality rates were estimated from the trend experienced among 75-84 year olds.

RESULTS

Of 214 causes considered, 19 were identified as potential sources for cause misattribution. High proportions of deaths from tuberculosis, lower respiratory infections (mostly pneumonia), diarrhoeal diseases, and ill-defined natural causes were estimated to be HIV-related, with only 7% of the estimated AIDS deaths being recorded as HIV. Estimated HIV/AIDS deaths increased rapidly, then reversed after 2006, totalling 2.8 million deaths over the whole period. The number was lower than model estimates from Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the Global Burden of Disease Study.

CONCLUSION

Empirically based estimates confirm the considerable loss of life from HIV/AIDS and should be used for calibrating models of the AIDS epidemic which generally appear too low for infants but too high for other ages. Doctors are urged to specify HIV on death notifications to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics.

The Case for Adolescent HIV Vaccination in South Africa: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Despite comprising 0.7% of the world population, South Africa is home to 18% of the global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. Unyielding HIV subepidemics among adolescents threaten national attempts to curtail the disease burden. Should an HIV vaccine become available, establishing its point of entry into the health system becomes a priority. This study assesses the impact of school-based HIV vaccination and explores how variations in vaccine characteristics affect cost-effectiveness. The cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained associated with school-based adolescent HIV vaccination services was assessed using Markov modeling that simulated annual cycles based on national costing data. The estimation was based on a life expectancy of 70 years and employs the health care provider perspective. The simultaneous implementation of HIV vaccination services with current HIV management programs would be cost-effective, even at relatively higher vaccine cost. At base vaccine cost of US$ 12, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$ 43 per QALY gained, with improved ICER values yielded at lower vaccine costs. The ICER was sensitive to duration of vaccine mediated protection and variations in vaccine efficacy. Data from this work demonstrate that vaccines offering longer duration of protection and at lower cost would result in improved ICER values. School-based HIV vaccine services of adolescents, in addition to current HIV prevention and treatment health services delivered, would be cost-effective.

Record-linkage comparison of verbal autopsy and routine civil registration death certification in rural north-east South Africa: 2006-09

Background: South African civil registration (CR) provides a key data source for local health decision making, and informs the levels and causes of mortality in data-lacking sub-Saharan African countries. We linked mortality data from CR and the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System (Agincourt HDSS) to examine the quality of rural CR data.

Methods: Deterministic and probabilistic techniques were used to link death data from 2006 to 2009. Causes of death were aggregated into the WHO Mortality Tabulation List 1 and a locally relevant short list of 15 causes. The matching rate was compared with informant-reported death registration. Using the VA diagnoses as reference, misclassification patterns, sensitivity, positive predictive values and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated for the short list.

Results: A matching rate of 61% [95% confidence interval (CI): 59.2 to 62.3] was attained, lower than the informant-reported registration rate of 85% (CI: 83.4 to 85.8). For the 2264 matched cases, cause agreement was 15% (kappa 0.1083, CI: 0.0995 to 0.1171) for the WHO list, and 23% (kappa 0.1631, CI: 0.1511 to 0.1751) for the short list. CSMFs were significantly different for all but four (tuberculosis, cerebrovascular disease, other heart disease, and ill-defined natural) of the 15 causes evaluated.

Conclusion: Despite data limitations, it is feasible to link official CR and HDSS verbal autopsy data. Data linkage proved a promising method to provide empirical evidence about the quality and utility of rural CR mortality data. Agreement of individual causes of death was low but, at the population level, careful interpretation of the CR data can assist health prioritization and planning.

A composite metric for assessing data on mortality and causes of death: the vital statistics performance index

BACKGROUND

Timely and reliable data on causes of death are fundamental for informed decision-making in the health sector as well as public health research. An in-depth understanding of the quality of data from vital statistics (VS) is therefore indispensable for health policymakers and researchers. We propose a summary index to objectively measure the performance of VS systems in generating reliable mortality data and apply it to the comprehensive cause of death database assembled for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 Study.

METHODS

We created a Vital Statistics Performance Index, a composite of six dimensions of VS strength, each assessed by a separate empirical indicator. The six dimensions include: quality of cause of death reporting, quality of age and sex reporting, internal consistency, completeness of death reporting, level of cause-specific detail, and data availability/timeliness. A simulation procedure was developed to combine indicators into a single index. This index was computed for all country-years of VS in the GBD 2013 cause of death database, yielding annual estimates of overall VS system performance for 148 countries or territories.

RESULTS

The six dimensions impacted the accuracy of data to varying extents. VS performance declines more steeply with declining simulated completeness than for any other indicator. The amount of detail in the cause list reported has a concave relationship with overall data accuracy, but is an important driver of observed VS performance. Indicators of cause of death data quality and age/sex reporting have more linear relationships with simulated VS performance, but poor cause of death reporting influences observed VS performance more strongly. VS performance is steadily improving at an average rate of 2.10% per year among the 148 countries that have available data, but only 19.0% of global deaths post-2000 occurred in countries with well-performing VS systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Objective and comparable information about the performance of VS systems and the utility of the data that they report will help to focus efforts to strengthen VS systems. Countries and the global health community alike need better intelligence about the accuracy of VS that are widely and often uncritically used in population health research and monitoring.

The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa

BACKGROUND

We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality in a parsimonious way by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model of age-specific mortality. In its traditional form this model is difficult to fit and does not account for uncertainty.

OBJECTIVE

1. To quantify changes in the sex-age pattern of mortality experienced by a population with endemic HIV. 2. To develop and demonstrate a robust Bayesian estimation method for the HP model that accounts for uncertainty.

METHODS

Bayesian estimation methods are adapted to work with the HP model. Temporal changes in parameter values are related to changes in HIV prevalence.

RESULTS

Over the period when the HIV epidemic in South Africa was growing, mortality in the population described by our data increased profoundly with losses of life expectancy of ~15 years for both males and females. The temporal changes in the HP parameters reflect in a parsimonious way the changes in the age pattern of mortality. We develop a robust Bayesian method to estimate the eight parameters of the HP model and thoroughly demonstrate it.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in mortality in South Africa over the past fifteen years have been profound. The HP model can be fit well using Bayesian methods, and the results can be useful in developing a parsimonious description of changes in the age pattern of mortality.

COMMENTS

The motivating aim of this work is to develop new methods that can be useful in applying the HP eight-parameter model of age-specific mortality. We have done this and chosen an interesting application to demonstrate the new methods.

Evaluating the quality of national mortality statistics from civil registration in South Africa, 1997-2007

Background

Two World Health Organization comparative assessments rated the quality of South Africa’s 1996 mortality data as low. Since then, focussed initiatives were introduced to improve civil registration and vital statistics. Furthermore, South African cause-of-death data are widely used by research and international development agencies as the basis for making estimates of cause-specific mortality in many African countries. It is hence important to assess the quality of more recent South African data.

Methods

We employed nine criteria to evaluate the quality of civil registration mortality data. Four criteria were assessed by analysing 5.38 million deaths that occurred nationally from 1997–2007. For the remaining five criteria, we reviewed relevant legislation, data repositories, and reports to highlight developments which shaped the current status of these criteria.

Findings

National mortality statistics from civil registration were rated satisfactory for coverage and completeness of death registration, temporal consistency, age/sex classification, timeliness, and sub-national availability. Epidemiological consistency could not be assessed conclusively as the model lacks the discriminatory power to enable an assessment for South Africa. Selected studies and the extent of ill-defined/non-specific codes suggest substantial shortcomings with single-cause data. The latter criterion and content validity were rated unsatisfactory.

Conclusion

In a region marred by mortality data absences and deficiencies, this analysis signifies optimism by revealing considerable progress from a dysfunctional mortality data system to one that offers all-cause mortality data that can be adjusted for demographic and health analysis. Additionally, timely and disaggregated single-cause data are available, certified and coded according to international standards. However, without skillfully estimating adjustments for biases, a considerable confidence gap remains for single-cause data to inform local health planning, or to fill gaps in sparse-data countries on the continent. Improving the accuracy of single-cause data will be a critical contribution to the epidemiologic and population health evidence base in Africa.

Characteristics, availability and uses of vital registration and other mortality data sources in post-democracy South Africa

The value of good-quality mortality data for public health is widely acknowledged. While effective civil registration systems remains the 'gold standard' source for continuous mortality measurement, less than 25% of deaths are registered in most African countries. Alternative data collection systems can provide mortality data to complement those from civil registration, given an understanding of data source characteristics and data quality. We aim to document mortality data sources in post-democracy South Africa; to report on availability, limitations, strengths, and possible complementary uses of the data; and to make recommendations for improved data for mortality measurement. Civil registration and alternative mortality data collection systems, data availability, and complementary uses were assessed by reviewing blank questionnaires, death notification forms, death data capture sheets, and patient cards; legislation; electronic data archives and databases; and related information in scientific journals, research reports, statistical releases, government reports and books. Recent transformation has enhanced civil registration and official mortality data availability. Additionally, a range of mortality data items are available in three population censuses, three demographic surveillance systems, and a number of national surveys, mortality audits, and disease notification programmes. Child and adult mortality items were found in all national data sources, and maternal mortality items in most. Detailed cause-of-death data are available from civil registration and demographic surveillance. In a continent often reported as lacking the basic data to infer levels, patterns and trends of mortality, there is evidence of substantial improvement in South Africa in the availability of data for mortality assessment. Mortality data sources are many and varied, providing opportunity for comparing results and improved public health planning. However, more can and must be done to improve mortality measurement by improving data quality, triangulating data, and expanding analytic capacity. Cause data, in particular, must be improved.

Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm

BACKGROUND

Data on causes of death by age and sex are a critical input into health decision-making. Priority setting in public health should be informed not only by the current magnitude of health problems but by trends in them. However, cause of death data are often not available or are subject to substantial problems of comparability. We propose five general principles for cause of death model development, validation, and reporting.

METHODS

We detail a specific implementation of these principles that is embodied in an analytical tool - the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) - which explores a large variety of possible models to estimate trends in causes of death. Possible models are identified using a covariate selection algorithm that yields many plausible combinations of covariates, which are then run through four model classes. The model classes include mixed effects linear models and spatial-temporal Gaussian Process Regression models for cause fractions and death rates. All models for each cause of death are then assessed using out-of-sample predictive validity and combined into an ensemble with optimal out-of-sample predictive performance.

RESULTS

Ensemble models for cause of death estimation outperform any single component model in tests of root mean square error, frequency of predicting correct temporal trends, and achieving 95% coverage of the prediction interval. We present detailed results for CODEm applied to maternal mortality and summary results for several other causes of death, including cardiovascular disease and several cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

CODEm produces better estimates of cause of death trends than previous methods and is less susceptible to bias in model specification. We demonstrate the utility of CODEm for the estimation of several major causes of death.

Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics: the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa

Background

Verbal autopsy (VA) has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation.

Methods

Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time.

Results

Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years). Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably.

Conclusions

VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two physician coders per case (from a pool of 14) suggests that double coding may be unnecessary, although the consensus rate of HIV-related mortality was approximately 8% lower than by individual physicians. Consistency within and between individual physicians, individual perceptions of epidemic dynamics, and the inherent consistency of models are important considerations here. The ability of the InterVA model to track a more than tenfold increase in HIV-related mortality over time suggests that finely tuned "local" versions of models for VA interpretation are not necessary.

Lives saved by tuberculosis control and prospects for achieving the 2015 global target for reducing tuberculosis mortality

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether the global target of halving tuberculosis (TB) mortality between 1990 and 2015 can be achieved and to conduct the first global assessment of the lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy of the World Health Organization (WHO).

METHODS

Mortality from TB since 1990 was estimated for 213 countries using established methods endorsed by WHO. Mortality trends were estimated separately for people with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in accordance with the International classification of diseases. Lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy were estimated with respect to the performance of TB control in 1995, the year that DOTS was introduced.

FINDINGS

TB mortality among HIV-negative (HIV-) people fell from 30 to 20 per 100,000 population (36%) between 1990 and 2009 and could be halved by 2015. The overall decline (when including HIV-positive [HIV+] people, who comprise 12% of all TB cases) was 19%. Between 1995 and 2009, 49 million TB patients were treated under the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy. This saved 4.6-6.3 million lives, including those of 0.23-0.28 million children and 1.4-1.7 million women of childbearing age. A further 1 million lives could be saved annually by 2015.

CONCLUSION

Improvements in TB care and control since 1995 have greatly reduced TB mortality, saved millions of lives and brought within reach the global target of halving TB deaths by 2015 relative to 1990. Intensified efforts to reduce deaths among HIV+ TB cases are needed, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

Outreach education for integration of HIV/AIDS care, antiretroviral treatment, and tuberculosis care in primary care clinics in South Africa: PALSA PLUS pragmatic cluster randomised trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether PALSA PLUS, an on-site educational outreach programme of non-didactic, case based, iterative clinical education of staff, led by a trainer, can increase access to and comprehensiveness of care for patients with HIV/AIDS.

DESIGN

Cluster randomised trial.

SETTING

Public primary care clinics offering HIV/AIDS care, antiretroviral treatment (ART), tuberculosis care, and ambulatory primary care in Free State province, South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Fifteen clinics all implementing decentralisation and task shifting were randomised. The clinics cared for 400,000 general primary care patients and 10,136 patients in an HIV/AIDS/ART programme. There were 150 nurses.

INTERVENTION

On-site outreach education in eight clinics; no such education in seven (control).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Provision of co-trimoxazole prophylaxis among patients referred to the HIV/AIDS/ART programme, and detection of cases of tuberculosis among those in the programme. Proportion of patients in the programme enrolled through general primary care consultations.

RESULTS

Patients referred to the HIV/AIDS programme through general primary care at intervention clinics were more likely than those at control clinics to receive co-trimoxazole prophylaxis (41%, (2253/5523) v 32% (1340/4210); odds ratio 1.95, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 3.40), and tuberculosis was more likely to be diagnosed among patients with HIV/AIDS/ART (7% (417/5793) v 6% (245/4343); 1.25, 1.01 to 1.55). Enrolment in the HIV/AIDS and ART programme through HIV testing in general primary care was not significantly increased (53% v 50%; 1.19, 0.51 to 2.77). Secondary outcomes were similar, except for weight gain, which was higher in the intervention group (2.3 kg v 1.9 kg, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Though outreach education is an effective and feasible strategy for improving comprehensiveness of care and wellbeing of patients with HIV/AIDS, there is no evidence that it increases access to the ART programme. It is now being widely implemented in South Africa.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN 24820584.

Exposing misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) that are misattributed to other causes in South Africa's death registration data and to adjust for this bias.

METHODS

Deaths in the World Health Organization's mortality database were distributed among 48 mutually exclusive causes. For each cause, age- and sex-specific global death rates were compared with the average rate among people aged 65-69, 70-74 and 75-79 years to generate "relative" global death rates. Relative rates were also computed for South Africa alone. Differences between global and South African relative death rates were used to identify the causes to which deaths from HIV/AIDS were misattributed in South Africa and quantify the HIV/AIDS deaths misattributed to each. These deaths were then reattributed to HIV/AIDS.

FINDINGS

In South Africa, deaths from HIV/AIDS are often misclassified as being caused by 14 other conditions. Whereas in 1996-2006 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS accounted for 2.0-2.5% of all registered deaths in South Africa, our analysis shows that the true cause-specific mortality fraction rose from 19% (uncertainty range: 7-28%) to 48% (uncertainty range: 38-50%) over that period. More than 90% of HIV/AIDS deaths were found to have been misattributed to other causes during 1996-2006.

CONCLUSION

Adjusting for cause of death misclassification, a simple procedure that can be carried out in any country, can improve death registration data and provide empirical estimates of HIV/AIDS deaths that may be useful in assessing estimates from demographic models.

The diagnostic utility of bone marrow biopsies performed for the investigation of fever and/or cytopenias in HIV-infected adults at Groote Schuur Hospital, Western Cape, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

A bone marrow biopsy is frequently requested in the work-up of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection who present with fever and/or cytopenias in the search for opportunistic infections and malignancies.

METHODS

This is a retrospective review of the results of consecutive bone marrow biopsies performed at our institution over a three-year period on HIV-positive patients for the investigation of fever and/or cytopenias. Clinical data, haematological parameters, morphological features, Ziehl-Neelsen staining and microbiological culture results were analysed. The aim of the study was to determine the diagnostic yield of this investigation.

RESULTS

Sixty-three males and 84 female patients were included for analysis. The bone marrow biopsy gave a high diagnostic yield of 47% (70 patients) and a unique diagnosis in 33% (49 patients). Immune thrombocytopenic purpura and disseminated mycobacterial infections were the most common unique diagnoses made (14%, respectively), followed by malignancies (4%). In this cohort, four cases of primary bone marrow involvement by Hodgkin lymphoma and one case of involvement by non-Hodgkin lymphoma were diagnosed.

CONCLUSION

In our study group, a bone marrow biopsy was a useful investigation with a high diagnostic yield.

Local-level mortality surveillance in resource-limited settings: a case study of Cape Town highlights disparities in health

OBJECTIVE

To identify the leading causes of mortality and premature mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, and its subdistricts, and to compare levels of mortality between subdistricts.

METHODS

Cape Town mortality data for the period 2001-2006 were analysed by age, cause of death and sex. Cause-of-death codes were aggregated into three main cause groups: (i) pre-transitional causes (e.g. communicable diseases, maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies), (ii) noncommunicable diseases and (iii) injuries. Premature mortality was calculated in years of life lost (YLLs). Population estimates for the Cape Town Metro district were used to calculate age-specific rates per 100,000 population, which were then age-standardized and compared across subdistricts.

FINDINGS

The pattern of mortality in Cape Town reflects the quadruple burden of disease observed in the national cause-of-death profile, with HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases, injuries and noncommunicable diseases all accounting for a significant proportion of deaths. HIV/AIDS has replaced homicide as the leading cause of death. HIV/AIDS, homicide, tuberculosis and road traffic injuries accounted for 44% of all premature mortality. Khayelitsha, the poorest subdistrict, had the highest levels of mortality for all main cause groups.

CONCLUSION

Local mortality surveillance highlights the differential needs of the population of Cape Town and provides a wealth of data to inform planning and implementation of targeted interventions. Multisectoral interventions will be required to reduce the burden of disease.

Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality: a validation study in Tanzania and Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy is currently the only option for obtaining cause of death information in most populations with a widespread HIV/AIDS epidemic.

METHODS

With the use of a data-driven algorithm, a set of criteria for classifying AIDS mortality was trained. Data from two longitudinal community studies in Tanzania and Zimbabwe were used, both of which have collected information on the HIV status of the population over a prolonged period and maintained a demographic surveillance system that collects information on cause of death through verbal autopsy. The algorithm was then tested in different times (two phases of the Zimbabwe study) and different places (Tanzania and Zimbabwe).

RESULTS

The trained algorithm, including nine signs and symptoms, performed consistently based on sensitivity and specificity on verbal autopsy data for deaths in 15-44-year-olds from Zimbabwe phase I (sensitivity 79%; specificity 79%), phase II (sensitivity 83%; specificity 75%) and Tanzania (sensitivity 75%; specificity 74%) studies. The sensitivity dropped markedly for classifying deaths in 45-59-year-olds.

CONCLUSIONS

Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality with a set of nine criteria. Surveillance should focus on deaths that occur in the 15-44-year age group for which the method performs reliably. Addition of a handful of questions related to opportunistic infections would enable other widely used verbal autopsy tools to apply this validated method in areas for which HIV testing and hospital records are unavailable or incomplete.

Stigma, Culture, and HIV and AIDS in the Western Cape, South Africa: An Application of the PEN-3 Cultural Model for Community-Based Research

HIV- and AIDS-related stigma has been reported to be a major factor contributing to the spread of HIV. In this study, the authors explore the meaning of stigma and its impact on HIV and AIDS in South African families and health care centers. They conducted focus group and key informant interviews among African and Colored populations in Khayelitsha, Gugulethu, and Mitchell's Plain in the Western Cape province. The audio-recorded interviews were transcribed and coded using NVivo. Using the PEN-3 cultural model, the authors analyzed results showing that participants' shared experiences ranged from positive/nonstigmatizing, to existential/unique to the contexts, to negative/stigmatizing. Families and health care centers were found to have both positive nonstigmatizing values and negative stigmatizing characteristics in addressing HIV/AIDS-related stigma. The authors conclude that a culture-centered analysis, relative to identity, is central to understanding the nature and contexts of HIV/AIDS-related stigma in South Africa.

Validation of AIDS-related mortality in Botswana

BACKGROUND

Mortality data are used to conduct disease surveillance, describe health status and inform planning processes for health service provision and resource allocation. In many countries, HIV- and AIDS-related deaths are believed to be under-reported in government statistics.

METHODS

To estimate the extent of under-reporting of HIV- and AIDS-related deaths in Botswana, we conducted a retrospective study of a sample of deaths reported in the government vital registration database from eight hospitals, where more than 40% of deaths in the country in 2005 occurred. We used the consensus of three physicians conducting independent reviews of medical records as the gold standard comparison. We examined the sensitivity, specificity and other validity statistics.

RESULTS

Of the 5276 deaths registered in the eight hospitals, 29% were HIV- and AIDS-related. The percentage of HIV- and AIDS-related deaths confirmed by physician consensus (positive predictive value) was 95.4%; however, the percentage of non-HIV- and non-AIDS-related deaths confirmed (negative predictive value) was only 69.1%. The sensitivity and specificity of the vital registration system was 55.7% and 97.3%, respectively. After correcting for misclassification, the percentage of HIV- and AIDS--related deaths was estimated to be in the range of 48.8% to 54.4%, depending on the definition.

CONCLUSION

Improvements in hospitals and within government offices are necessary to strengthen the vital registration system. These should include such strategies as training physicians and coders in accurate reporting and recording of death statistics, implementing continuous quality assurance methods, and working with the government to underscore the importance of using mortality statistics in future evidence-based planning.

Deaths caused by HIV disease under-reported in South Africa

Modelling of trends in age-specific death rates in South Africa suggests that deaths attributable to HIV are often misclassified on death notification forms. We compared the underlying cause of death from death notification forms with that based on scrutiny of medical records for 683 deaths in Cape Town. Of 129 deaths caused by HIV according to medical records, only 35 (27.1%) were ascribed to HIV on the death notification form using strict coding and 83 (64.3%) using interpretive coding.

Emergence of a peak in early infant mortality due to HIV/AIDS in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

South Africa has among the highest levels of HIV prevalence in the world. Our objectives are to describe the distribution of South African infant and child mortality by age at fine resolution, to identify any trends over recent time and to examine these trends for HIV-associated and non HIV-associated causes of mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective review of vital registration data was conducted. All registered postneonatal deaths under 1 year of age in South Africa for the period 1997-2002 were analysed by age in months using a generalized linear model with a log link and Poisson family.

RESULTS

Postneonatal mortality increased each year over the period 1997-2002. A peak in HIV-related deaths was observed, centred at 2-3 months of age, rising monotonically over time.

CONCLUSION

We interpret the peak in mortality at 2-3 months as an indicator for paediatric AIDS in a South African population with high HIV prevalence and where other causes of death are not sufficiently high to mask HIV effects. Intrauterine and intrapartum infection may contribute to this peak. It is potentially a useful surveillance tool, not requiring an exact cause of death. The findings also illustrate the need for early treatment of mother and child in settings with very high HIV prevalence.

The burden of disease profile of residents of Nairobi's slums: results from a demographic surveillance system

BACKGROUND

With increasing urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa and poor economic performance, the growth of slums is unavoidable. About 71% of urban residents in Kenya live in slums. Slums are characteristically unplanned, underserved by social services, and their residents are largely underemployed and poor. Recent research shows that the urban poor fare worse than their rural counterparts on most health indicators, yet much about the health of the urban poor remains unknown. This study aims to quantify the burden of mortality of the residents in two Nairobi slums, using a Burden of Disease approach and data generated from a Demographic Surveillance System.

METHODS

Data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected between January 2003 and December 2005 were analysed. Core demographic events in the NUHDSS including deaths are updated three times a year; cause of death is ascertained by verbal autopsy and cause of death is assigned according to the ICD 10 classification. Years of Life Lost due to premature mortality (YLL) were calculated by multiplying deaths in each subcategory of sex, age group and cause of death, by the Global Burden of Disease standard life expectancy at that age.

RESULTS

The overall mortality burden per capita was 205 YLL/1,000 person years. Children under the age of five years had more than four times the mortality burden of the rest of the population, mostly due to pneumonia and diarrhoeal diseases. Among the population aged five years and above, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis accounted for about 50% of the mortality burden.

CONCLUSION

Slum residents in Nairobi have a high mortality burden from preventable and treatable conditions. It is necessary to focus on these vulnerable populations since their health outcomes are comparable to or even worse than the health outcomes of rural dwellers who are often the focus of most interventions.

Yogurt containing probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 and L. reuteri RC-14 helps resolve moderate diarrhea and increases CD4 count in HIV/AIDS patients

HIV/AIDS is changing the human landscape in sub-Saharan Africa. Relatively few patients receive antiretroviral therapy, and many suffer from debilitating diarrhea that affects their quality of life. Given the track record of probiotics to alleviate diarrhea, conventional yogurt fermented with Lactobacillus delbruekii var bulgaricus and Streptococcus thermophilus was supplemented with probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 and L. reuteri RC-14. Twenty-four HIV/AIDS adult female patients (18 to 44 y) with clinical signs of moderate diarrhea, CD4 counts over 200, and not receiving antiretrovirals or dietary supplements, consumed either 100 mL supplemented or unsupplemented yogurt per day for 15 days. Hematologic profiles, CD4 cell counts, and quality of life was evaluated at baseline, 15 and 30 days postprobiotic-yogurt feeding. There was no significant alteration in the hematologic parameters of both groups before and after the probiotic-yogurt feeding. The probiotic yogurt group at baseline, 15 and 30 days had a mean WBC count of 5.8+/-0.76 x 10(9)/L, 6.0+/-1.02 x 10(9)/L, and 5.4+/-0.14 x 10(9)/L, respectively. However, the mean CD4 cell count remained the same or increased at 15 and 30 days in 11/12 probiotic-treated subjects compared to 3/12 in the control. Diarrhea, flatulence, and nausea resolved in 12/12 probiotic-treated subjects within 2 days, compared to 2/12 receiving yogurt for 15 days. This is the first study to show the benefits of probiotic yogurt on quality of life of women in Nigeria with HIV/AIDS, and suggests that perhaps a simple fermented food can provide some relief in the management of the AIDS epidemic in Africa.

Cause of death and presence of respiratory disease at autopsy in an HIV-1 seroconversion cohort of southern African gold miners

OBJECTIVES

To describe causes of death and respiratory infections in HIV-infected miners in the pre-antiretroviral era, by duration of HIV infection.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort of 1950 gold miners with known dates of HIV seroconversion and 6164 HIV-negative miners was followed from the early 1990s to 2002.

METHODS

Causes of death were available from multiple sources: personnel records, clinical records, death certificates and autopsies of cardiorespiratory organs performed for compensation purposes.

RESULTS

Causes of death were known for 279 of 308 HIV-positive (91%) and 234 of 254 HIV-negative (92%) men who died while employed or within 6 months of leaving employment. The mortality rate from unnatural causes was similar in HIV-positive and HIV-negative miners and by duration of HIV infection. Among deaths from natural causes, 87% in HIV-positive and 41% in HIV-negative individuals were caused by infection (P < 0.001); 47% of HIV-positive and 26% of HIV-negative individuals had tuberculosis. The proportion of deaths from natural causes with any infection, or with specific infections (tuberculosis, cryptococcus, pneumocystis), did not vary with the duration of HIV infection. Autopsies were performed on 29% of men who died from natural causes: 83% of HIV-positive and 37% of HIV-negative men had respiratory infections (P < 0.001), half of which were clinically undiagnosed.

CONCLUSION

Tuberculosis was the leading cause of death in HIV-positive and negative men who died from natural causes. Although the mortality rate from natural causes increased greatly with the duration of HIV infection, the pattern of disease hardly changed, suggesting that slow and fast progressors succumb to the same range of diseases.

A single surgical unit's experience with abdominal tuberculosis in the HIV/AIDS era

INTRODUCTION

Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) has resulted in a resurgence of abdominal tuberculosis in South Africa, and these patients often present to general surgeons. We describe a single-hospital experience in a region of high HIV prevalence.

METHODS

A prospective database of all patients with suspected abdominal tuberculosis was maintained from January 2003 until July 2005.

RESULTS

There were 67 patients (20 men, 47 women) with an average age of 32 years (range 27-61 years). The erythrocyte sedimentation rate was universally elevated (105 +/- 23). Altogether, 23 patients were HIV-positive and 7 were HIV-negative. The status was unknown in the remainder. Chest radiographs demonstrated an abnormality in 17 patients (22%). Abdominal ultrasonography was performed in 59 patients and computed tomography in 12. Twelve laparotomies were performed, seven as emergencies. None in the elective laparotomy group died, whereas the mortality rate in the emergency group was 60%. Laparoscopy was insufficient for a variety of reasons. Two patients underwent appendectomy and two excision of a perianal fistula. Two patients underwent biopsy of a palpable subcutaneous node, which confirmed the diagnosis in both cases. A definitive diagnosis was achieved in all 12 patients subjected to laparotomy and at colonoscopic biopsy in 2, lymph node biopsy in 2, appendectomy in 2, perianal fistulectomy in 2, and percutaneous drainage in 2. In the remaining 47 patients the diagnosis was made on the basis of the clinical presentation and radiologic imaging. The patients were commenced on antituberculous therapy. The in-hospital mortality in this group was 10%. Therapy was continued at a centralized tuberculosis facility independent of the hospital. Surgical follow-up was poor, with only five (7%) patients completing the 6-month review at a surgical clinic.

CONCLUSIONS

A resurgence in tuberculosis during the HIV era produces a new spectrum of presentations for the surgeon. Emergency surgery is associated with high mortality. Bacterial and histologic evidence of infection are difficult to obtain, and indirect clinical and imaging evidence are used to commence a trial of therapy. A short-term clinical response is regarded as proof of disease. Lack of follow-up means that the efficacy of this strategy is unproven. Health policy changes are needed to enable appropriate surgical follow-up to determine the most effective management algorithm.

Preventing bacterial disease in the HIV-infected of sub-saharan africa: The role of cotrimoxazole and the pneumococcal vaccines

Bacterial infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with HIV living in Africa. Broadening the scope of cotrimoxazole (CTX) prophylaxis to cover patients whose CD4 counts are above 200 cells/mm(3) has been suggested as a means of improving the control of infectious disease on the continent. CTX has demonstrated antimalarial benefit in Central and West Africa, but in areas of high bacterial resistance to CTX, the prophylactic role of CTX as an antibacterial agent is less clear. In particular there is little to suggest that prophylactic CTX provides reliable control against the pneumococcus. In both South Africa and the Gambia, several clinical studies with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines have resulted in improved clinical outcomes for children with and without HIV infection. There is clearly much more that needs to be done, and conjugate vaccines provide a unique opportunity to improve the future lives of Africa's children.

Preliminary outcomes of a paediatric highly active antiretroviral therapy cohort from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

Few studies address the use of paediatric highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Africa.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study to investigate preliminary outcomes of all children eligible for HAART at Sinikithemba HIV/AIDS clinic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Immunologic, virologic, clinical, mortality, primary caregiver, and psychosocial variables were collected and analyzed.

Results

From August 31, 2003 until October 31, 2005, 151 children initiated HAART. The median age at HAART initiation was 5.7 years (range 0.3–15.4). Median follow-up time of the cohort after HAART initiation was 8 months (IQR 3.5–13.5). The median change in CD4% from baseline (p < 0.001) was 10.2 (IQR 5.0–13.8) at 6 months (n = 90), and 16.2 (IQR 9.6–20.3) at 12 months (n = 59). Viral loads (VLs) were available for 100 children at 6 months of which 84% had HIV-1 RNA levels ≤ 50 copies/mL. At 12 months, 80.3% (n = 61) had undetectable VLs. Sixty-five out of 88 children (73.8%) reported a significant increase (p < 0.001) in weight after the first month. Eighty-nine percent of the cohort (n = 132) reported ≤ 2 missed doses during any given treatment month (> 95%adherence). Seventeen patients (11.3%) had a regimen change; two (1.3%) were due to antiretroviral toxicity. The Kaplan-Meier one year survival estimate was 90.9% (95%confidence interval (CI) 84.8–94.6). Thirteen children died during follow-up (8.6%), one changed service provider, and no children were lost to follow-up. All 13 deaths occurred in children with advanced HIV disease within 5 months of treatment initiation. In multivariate analysis of baseline variables against mortality using Cox proportional-hazards model, chronic gastroenteritis was associated with death [hazard ratio (HR), 12.34; 95%CI, 1.27–119.71) and an HIV-positive primary caregiver was found to be protective against mortality [HR, 0.12; 95%CI, 0.02–0.88). Age, orphanhood, baseline CD4%, and hemoglobin were not predicators of mortality in our cohort. Fifty-two percent of the cohort had at least one HIV-positive primary caregiver, and 38.4% had at least one primary caregiver also on HAART at Sinikithemba clinic.

Conclusion

This report suggests that paediatric HAART can be effective despite the challenges of a resource-limited setting.

Determining causes of mortality in children enrolled in a vaccine field trial in a rural area in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

AIM

A mortality surveillance system was developed to identify and document causes of death among children enrolled in a tuberculosis vaccine field trial in South Africa. The aims of this study were to describe causes of mortality in children enrolled in a phase IV trial comparing intradermal with percutaneous administration of Bacille Calmette Guerin, and to compare causes of mortality recorded on death certificates with those obtained by clinical record review combined with verbal autopsies (CR/VA).

METHODS

For children who died, certified causes of death were compared with those determined by CR/VA.

RESULTS

Among 11677 children enrolled, 177 deaths were notified over 4 years. The incidence rate of death was 6.8/1000 person-years. Follow-up time ranged from 0.03 to 35.3 months (median 4 months; interquartile range 1.4-8.5). The infant mortality rate was 12.5/1000 live births and the neonatal mortality was 3/1000 live births. Pneumonia, gastroenteritis and septicaemia were among top causes of mortality by both methods. 'Sudden unexplained' and 'ill-defined' causes were among top causes of mortality based on CR/VA, while tuberculosis and 'natural causes' were among top causes based on death certificates. Important underlying causes of mortality by CR/VA include HIV/AIDS, prematurity/low birth weight and malnutrition. In 47% of deaths there was agreement on immediate causes of death. This increased to 54% when 'natural causes' and 'sudden unexplained deaths' were included.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort mortality was largely due to infectious diseases. While CR/VA provided additional information on most deaths, this was not always sufficient to assign specific causes of death.

Economic causes and effects of AIDS in South African households

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the magnitude and temporal directionality of associations between illness and death, and income and expenditure, in households affected by HIV/AIDS.

DESIGN AND SUBJECTS

A cohort study with repeated measures carried out in 405 households (1913 occupants), known to have HIV-infected occupants and their neighbours, in one rural and one urban area of South Africa.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Monthly adult equivalent income and expenditure. Illness episodes and deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and pneumonia.

METHODS

Interview surveys of household heads were conducted at baseline and five more times, biannually, providing information on household economics, illnesses and deaths. Regression analyses used marginal structural models and 'before-after' models to analyse changes.

RESULTS

In marginal structural models, current or previous AIDS illness was independently associated with 34% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 23-43%] lower monthly expenditure, and current or recent poverty was associated with 1.74 (95% CI 0.94-3.2) times higher odds of an AIDS death. In before-after models, each AIDS death was independently associated with a 23% (95% CI 11-34%) greater expenditure decline over 3 years, and a 100 US dollars higher monthly expenditure at baseline was associated with 0.31 (95% CI 0.13-0.74) times as many AIDS deaths and with 0.41 (95% CI 0.27-0.64) times as many AIDS illness episodes over 3 years.

CONCLUSION

AIDS deaths and illnesses predicted declining expenditure and poverty predicted AIDS, suggesting that both welfare and effective treatment are needed.

Comorbidities and mortality among children hospitalized with diarrheal disease in an area of high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection

PURPOSE

To describe the profile of comorbidities in children admitted with diarrhea to an urban hospital with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in South Africa and to examine the contribution of comorbidities to inpatient mortality.

METHODS

Data from a retrospective random sample of 319 children were extracted and analyzed from a total of 1145 children hospitalized for diarrhea in 2001. We used multiple logistic regression models to determine the independent effects of HIV infection, malnutrition, pneumonia and bacteremia on inpatient mortality.

RESULTS

Overall 68% of the diarrheal admissions were classified as HIV-infected and 61% were classified as malnourished, with 53% having evidence of both. HIV infection was strongly associated with malnutrition, pneumonia and bacteremia. Inpatient mortality was 14% [95% confidence interval (CI), 11-19%]. Mortality was higher among HIV-infected than among uninfected children [crude odds ratio (OR), 6.0; 95% CI 2.1-17.0]. History of low birth weight, previous admission, malnutrition, HIV infection, pneumonia, bacteremia, low hemoglobin, total white blood cell count and serum albumin were significant predictors of mortality in univariate analyses. After adjustment, severe malnutrition (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.0-4.9), bacteremia (OR 2.9; 95% CI 1.2-7.2) and pneumonia (OR 3.9; 95% CI 1.3-12.0) remained independent predictors of mortality, whereas the association between HIV infection and mortality was significantly diminished (OR 4.0; 95% CI 0.8-18.1).

CONCLUSION

In a setting of high HIV prevalence, malnutrition, bacteremia and pneumonia contribute independently to death in children hospitalized with diarrheal disease.

Diarrhea in patients with AIDS

Diarrhea in patients with AIDS is a worldwide problem that can have a devastating impact on quality of life for the patient. Chronic diarrhea, usually defined as at least 4 weeks' duration, is more common in patients with low CD4-positive T-lymphocyte counts, signaling advanced immunosuppression. Some organisms, such as Microsporidia, usually cause diarrhea only in the immunosuppressed; others, such as Cryptosporidium, Salmonella, Shigella, and Campylobacter, which are capable of causing diarrhea in the immunocompetent population, produce more severe or prolonged infections in people living with AIDS. Familiarity with the most common pathogens in the clinician's region will help with diagnosis and treatment. Because treatment options vary widely depending upon the infectious agent, thorough microbiologic evaluation is warranted. A stepped diagnostic approach of stool cultures and specialized microscopy and stains for protozoa, followed by sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy and duodenoscopy with biopsies for histopathological examination is recommended in all patients with persistent, disabling diarrhea who have a CD4 count of less than 200/mm3, and should be considered for those with higher counts on an individual basis. Treatment, tailored to the specific pathogen, may need to be prolonged in the most severely immunocompromised patients to prevent relapse or recrudescence. For patients taking antiretroviral therapy (especially protease inhibitors) in whom no infectious agent can be found, diarrhea may be due to the medications. Nonspecific antidiarrheal agents should be tried until one that suits the patient is found. The most essential component of any therapeutic strategy for a patient with AIDS-associated diarrhea is restoration of the underlying immunologic defect using highly active antiretroviral therapy.

From treatment to prevention: the interplay between HIV/AIDS treatment availability and HIV/AIDS prevention programming in Khayelitsha, South Africa

There is a paucity of research that illustrates the interplay between HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention programs. We describe the central role that public access to antiretroviral (ARV) medication has played in the development and efficacy of HIV/AIDS prevention programming in Khayelitsha, a resource-poor township in the Western Cape of South Africa. We document the range of preventive interventions and services available in Khayelitsha since the early 1990s and explore the impact of ARV availability on prevention efforts and disease stigma on the basis of extensive indepth interviews, supplemented by data collection. The information gathered suggests that the introduction of the mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT) prevention programs in 1999 and the three HIV treatment clinics run by Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in 2000 were turning points in the region's response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. These programs have provided incentives for HIV testing, galvanized HIV/AIDS educators to reach populations most at risk, and decreased the HIV incidence rates in Khayeltisha compared to other areas in the Western Cape. Lessons learned in Khayelitsha about the value of treatment availability in facilitating prevention efforts can inform the development of comprehensive approaches to HIV/AIDS in other resource-poor areas.