Global analysis of thermal tolerance and latitude in ectotherms

Chasing the Niche: Escaping Climate Change Threats in Place, Time, and Space

Climate change is creating mismatches between species' current environments and their historical niches. Locations that once had the abiotic and biotic conditions to support the persistence of a species may now be too warm, too dry, or simply too different, to meet their niche requirements. Changes in behaviors, altered phenology, and range shifts are common responses to climate change. Though these responses are often studied in isolation by scientists from disparate subfields of ecology, they all represent variants of the same solution-strategies to realign the conditions populations experience with their niche. Here, we aim to (1) identify the physiological and ecological effects, and potential alignment, of these three ecological responses: shifts in behavior, phenology, or ranges, (2) determine the circumstances under which each type of response may be more or less effective at mitigating the effects of climate change, and (3) consider how these strategies might interact with each other. Each response has been previously reviewed, but efforts to consider relationships between ecological (or with evolutionary) responses have been limited. A synthetic perspective that considers the similarities among ecological responses and how they interact with each other and with evolutionary responses offers a more robust view on species' resilience to climate change.

Extreme genetic signatures of local adaptation in a notorious rice pest, Chilo suppressalis

Climatic variation stands as a significant driving force behind genetic differentiation and the evolution of adaptive traits. Chilo (C.) suppressalis, commonly known as the rice stem borer, is a highly destructive pest that crucially harms rice production. The lack of natural population genomics data has hindered a more thorough understanding of its climate adaptation, particularly the genetic basis underlying adaptive traits. To overcome this obstacle, our study employed completely resequenced genomes of 384 individuals to explore the population structure, demographic history, and gene flow of C. suppressalis in China. This study observed that its gene flow occurred asymmetrically, moving from central populations to peripheral populations. Using genome-wide selection scans and genotype-environment association studies, we identified potential loci that may be associated with climatic adaptation. The most robust signal was found to be associated with cold tolerance, linked to a homeobox gene, goosecoid (GSC), whose expression level was significantly different in low and high latitudes. Moreover, downregulating the expression of this gene by RNAi enhances its cold tolerance phenotypes. Our findings have uncovered and delved into the genetic foundation of the ability of C. suppressalis to adapt to its environment. This is essential in ensuring the continued effectiveness and sustainability of novel control techniques.

Metabolomic signatures associated with cold adaptation and seasonal acclimation of Drosophila: profiling of 43 species

Cold tolerance is a key determinant of poleward colonization in insects. However, the physiological basis underlying interspecific differences in cold tolerance is not fully understood. Here, we analyzed cold tolerance and metabolomic profiles in warm- and cold-acclimated phenotypes of 43 Drosophila species representing a latitudinal gradient from the tropics to the boreal zone. We found a strong positive correlation between cold tolerance and climatic variables associated with habitat seasonality and temperature. Including the effects of cold acclimation, we found most species have similar 'safety margins', measured as the difference between the average environmental temperature and the lower lethal temperature. Searching for metabolomic signatures of cold tolerance, we found that the warm-acclimated flies of cold-hardy species had moderately but significantly higher constitutive signals of putative cryoprotectants such as trehalose, glucose, glycerol and mannitol/sorbitol. Cold acclimation (and the transition to a winter dormant phenotype) resulted in a strong accumulation of myo-inositol, which occurred only in species of the virilis group. Other temperate and boreal species either showed only moderate, idiosyncratic accumulations of sugars/polyols and free amino acids, or did not accumulate any 'classical' cryoprotectant at all. Thus, our results suggest that the colonization of boreal regions by Drosophila does not necessarily depend on the seasonal accumulation of classical cryoprotectants. In contrast, virtually all cold-acclimated species showed a significant increase in products of phospholipid catabolism, suggesting that remodeling of biological membranes is a clear and ubiquitous signature of cold acclimation in Drosophila.

Responses of Littorina spp. Intertidal Snails to Thermal Extremes Indicate Countergradient Variation in Fitness

Global change models predict not only a steady increase in temperatures but also an increase in the occurrence of hot and cold extremes. Organisms' responses to thermal extremes will depend on species-specific traits and the degree of within-species variation (among populations), with populations from warmer latitudes often predicted to have higher thermal tolerance than populations from colder latitudes. The evolution of population-specific responses, however, can be limited by gene flow that homogenises populations. Here, we investigate this relationship with a study of the survival of Littorina littorea, L. obtusata, and L. saxatilis-marine snails with varying dispersal potential-collected on either side of a known biogeographic break. Snails were laboratory-acclimated for several weeks before undergoing exposures to extreme heat, extreme cold, or ambient conditions, and individual mortality was recorded after each exposure. In line with common predictions, we observed that the degree of population divergence in survival under thermal extremes was negatively related to dispersal potential, and that populations from the colder latitude generally had higher survival of sub-freezing temperatures. Contrary to common predictions, however, we observed greater survival after extreme heat in populations from colder latitudes than in their warmer-latitude counterparts, a pattern known as countergradient variation. This experiment highlights counterintuitive responses to thermal extremes, emphasising that colder-latitude populations could experience population growth under more extreme climates due to higher survival at both hot and sub-freezing thermal extremes.

Physiological and morphological traits affect contemporary range expansion and implications for species distribution modelling in an amphibian species

Species range shifts due to climate alterations have been increasingly well-documented. Although amphibians are one of the most sensitive groups of animals to environmental perturbations due to climate change, almost no studies have offered evidence of poleward distribution shifts in this taxon in response to climate warming. Range shifts would be facilitated by variation in traits associated with the ability of species to persist and/or shift their range in the face of climate change, but the extent and consequences of intraspecific variation in these traits is unclear. We studied the role of intraspecific variation in the ongoing range shift of green treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) in response to climate change. We explored factors that are often associated with range shifts to test the hypothesis that there are differences in these traits between recently range-expanded and nearby historical populations. We then tested the consequences of intraspecific variation for modelling climate-induced range shifts by comparing species distribution models (SDMs) that used as input either data from the entire species range or separate inputs from 'subpopulations' corresponding to the historical range or the recently expanded range. We expected that building a separate SDM for each population would more accurately characterize the species range if historical and expanded populations differed in traits related to their response to climate. We found that critical thermal minimum decreased and thermal breadth increased with latitude, but the effect of latitude was significantly stronger for expanded populations compared to historical populations. Additionally, we found that individuals from expanded populations had longer leg lengths when compared to their historical counterparts. Finally, we found higher model accuracy for one of the population-level SDMs than the species-level SDM. Our results suggest that thermal tolerance and dispersal morphologies are associated with amphibian distributional shifts as these characteristics appear to facilitate rapid range expansion of a native anuran. Additionally, our modelling results emphasize that SDM accuracy could be improved by dividing a species range to consider potential differences in traits associated with climate responses. Future research should identify the mechanisms underlying intraspecific variation along climate gradients to continue improving SDM prediction of range shifts under climate change.

Traits related to distributional range shifts of marine fishes

In the context of global change, reviewing the relationships between marine fish traits and their range shifts is required to (1) identify ecological generalizations regarding the influence of traits on range shifts at a global scale and (2) investigate the rationale behind trait inclusion in models describing those relationships. We systematically searched for studies on marine fish assemblages that identified distributional shifts and analyzed the relationship between fish traits and these shifts. We reviewed 29 papers and identified 11 shift type characterizations and 41 traits, noting significant variation in measurement methods and model types used to describe their relationships. We identified global trait redundancies in the relationship between fish traits and latitudinal range shifts. These trends are related to the fishes' latitudinal range, trophic level, water column habitat, body size, size-at-settlement, growth rate, and larval swimming ability. The first four traits, along with fish bottom habitat, biogeographic affinity, diet, and thermal affinity, also showed significant relationships across four ways to characterize horizontal range shifts of fish species. The significance of these traits suggests their relevance in range shifting, regardless of the analyses conducted, biogeographic realm, and range shift type. However, trait redundancies require further consideration, mainly because some traits show opposing relationships in different studies, and important biogeographic research gaps limit global generalizations about the trait-range shift relationship. Half of the studies analyzed provided a rationale for 23 out of 41 traits. We also provide guidelines for future work to better understand the influence of traits on fish range shifts.

Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: Aedes sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, promoting expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis, a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in mosquito heat tolerance, and phenotypic trade-offs in tolerance to prolonged versus acute heat exposure. Further, we found genomic variation associated with prolonged heat tolerance was clustered in several regions of the genome, suggesting the presence of larger structural variants such as chromosomal inversions. A simple evolutionary model based on our data estimates that the maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance will exceed the projected rate of climate warming, implying the potential for mosquitoes to track warming via genetic adaptation.

A global biogeographic regionalization for butterflies

The partitioning of global biodiversity into biogeographic regions is critical for understanding the impacts of global-scale ecological and evolutionary processes on species assemblages as well as prioritizing areas for conservation. However, the lack of globally comprehensive data on species distributions precludes fine-scale estimation of biogeographical regionalization for numerous taxa of ecological, economic and conservation interest. Using a recently published phylogeny and novel curated native range maps for over 10 000 species of butterflies around the world, we delineated biogeographic regions for the world's butterflies using phylogenetic dissimilarity. We uncovered 19 distinct phylogenetically delimited regions (phyloregions) nested within 6 realms. Regional boundaries were predicted by spatial turnover in modern-day temperature and precipitation seasonality, but historical climate change also left a pronounced fingerprint on deeper- (realm-) level boundaries. We use a culturally and ecologically important group of insects to expand our understanding of how historical and contemporary factors drive the distribution of organismal lineages on the Earth. As insects and global biodiversity more generally face unprecedented challenges from anthropogenic factors, our research provides the groundwork for prioritizing regions and taxa for conservation, especially with the goal of preserving the legacies of our biosphere's evolutionary history.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

Single-nuclei multiome ATAC and RNA sequencing reveals the molecular basis of thermal plasticity in Drosophila melanogaster embryos

Embryogenesis is remarkably robust to temperature variability, yet there is limited understanding of the homeostatic mechanisms that offset thermal effects during early development. Here, we measured the thermal acclimation response of upper thermal limits and profiled chromatin state and the transcriptome of D. melanogaster embryos (Bownes Stage 11) using single-nuclei multiome ATAC and RNA sequencing. We report that thermal acclimation, while preserving a common set of primordial cell types, rapidly shifted the upper thermal limit. Cool-acclimated embryos showed a homeostatic response characterized by increased chromatin accessibility at transcription factor binding motifs for the transcriptional activator Zelda, along with enhanced activity of gene regulatory networks in the primordial cell types including the foregut and hindgut, mesoderm, and peripheral nervous system. In addition, cool-acclimated embryos had higher expression of genes encoding ribosomal proteins and enzymes involved in oxidative phosphorylation. Despite the hypothesis that differential heat tolerance might be explained by differential expression of molecular chaperones, we did not observe widespread differences in the chromatin accessibility or expression of heat shock genes. Overall, our results suggest that environmental robustness to temperature during embryogenesis necessitates homeostatic gene expression responses that regulate the speed of development, potentially imposing metabolic costs that constrain upper thermal limits.

Prior thermal acclimation gives White Sturgeon a fin up dealing with low oxygen

Assessing how at-risk species respond to co-occurring stressors is critical for predicting climate change vulnerability. In this study, we characterized how young-of-the-year White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) cope with warming and low oxygen (hypoxia) and investigated whether prior exposure to one stressor may improve the tolerance to a subsequent stressor through "cross-tolerance". Fish were acclimated to five temperatures within their natural range (14-22°C) for one month prior to assessment of thermal tolerance (critical thermal maxima, CTmax) and hypoxia tolerance (incipient lethal oxygen saturation, ILOS; tested at 20°C). White Sturgeon showed a high capacity for thermal acclimation, linearly increasing thermal tolerance with increasing acclimation temperature (slope = 0.55, adjusted R2 = 0.79), and an overall acclimation response ratio (ARR) of 0.58, from 14°C (CTmax = 29.4 ± 0.2°C, mean ± S.E.M.) to 22°C (CTmax = 34.1 ± 0.2°C). Acute warming most negatively impacted hypoxia tolerance in 14°C-acclimated fish (ILOS = 15.79 ± 0.74% air saturation), but prior acclimation to 20°C conferred the greatest hypoxia tolerance at this temperature (ILOS = 2.60 ± 1.74% air saturation). Interestingly, individuals that had been previously tested for thermal tolerance had lower hypoxia tolerance than naïve fish that had no prior testing. This was particularly apparent for hypoxia-tolerant 20°C-acclimated fish, whereas naïve fish persisted the entire 15-h duration of the hypoxia trial and did not lose equilibrium at air saturation levels below 20%. Warm-acclimated fish demonstrated significantly smaller relative ventricular mass, indicating potential changes to tissue oxygen delivery, but no other changes to red blood cell characteristics and somatic indices. These data suggest young-of-the-year White Sturgeon are resilient to warming and hypoxia, but the order in which these stressors are experienced and whether exposures are acute or chronic may have important effects on phenotype.

Global analysis of the influence of environmental variables to explain ecological niches and realized thermal niche boundaries of sea snakes

Understanding the factors affecting species distributions is a central topic in ecology and biogeography. However, most research on this topic has focused on species inhabiting terrestrial environments. At broad scales, abiotic variables consistently serve as primary determinants of species' distributions. In this study, we investigated the explanatory power of different abiotic variables in determining the distribution patterns of sea snakes on a global scale. Additionally, as the boundaries of realized thermal niches have significant implications for the ecology of species and their geographic distributions, we evaluated the asymmetry of realized thermal limits (i.e., differences in variances between the upper and lower limits of the realized thermal niche). We obtained 10 marine environmental variables from global databases along with >5000 occurrence records for 51 sea snake species in 4 genera across the group's entire known geographic range. Using these data, we employed correlative ecological niche modeling to analyze the influence of the individual variables in explaining species' distributions. To estimate the realized thermal limits of each species, we extracted the mean, minimum, and maximum temperature values at four depths (superficial, mean benthic, minimum benthic, and maximum benthic) for each occurrence record of the species. We then evaluated the asymmetry of the realized thermal niche by measuring and comparing the variances in the upper and lower limits. Both analyses (the importance of variables and realized thermal limit asymmetry) were performed at three taxonomic levels (sea snakes as a lineage of marine-adapted elapids [true sea snakes + sea kraits], subfamily, and genus) and two spatial resolutions. Overall, we found that temperature, silicate, nitrate, salinity, and phosphate concentrations were the most influential factors in explaining the spatial distribution patterns of sea snakes, regardless of taxonomic level or spatial resolution. Similarly, we observed that the realized thermal limits were asymmetric, with a higher variance in the lower limits, and that asymmetry decreased as the taxonomic level and spatial resolution increased.

Age and mating status have complex but modest effects on the critical thermal limits of adult Mediterranean fruit flies from geographically divergent populations

The highly invasive Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is currently expanding its geographic distribution into cooler temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. In marginal conditions, the invasion potential of medfly depends in part on innate tolerance to the novel environmental conditions. Physiological tolerances are potentially influenced by interactions among multiple factors, such as organism age or reproductive maturity, sex, and mating status. Furthermore, the relationships between the above factors and tolerances may differ among geographically distinct populations. Here, the effects of age and mating status on thermal tolerance of three geographically distinct medfly populations along a latitudinal gradient ranging from Greece (Crete & Volos) to Croatia (Dubrovnik) were examined. The upper and lower critical thermal limits (scored as loss of neuromuscular function during controlled cooling or heating) of adult males and females (a) at 1-, 6-, 15-, and 35 days old and of (b) both mated and virgin flies were assessed. Results showed that estimates of lower and upper thermal limits (CTmin and CTmax) were both population- and age-dependent. In most age classes tested, CTmin values were lower for the adults obtained from Crete and higher for those from Dubrovnik. CTmax values were lower for the females from Dubrovnik compared to the females from any other population on day one after emergence but not on days 6, 15 and 35. Differences among populations were observed across different age classes both for cold and heat tolerance but mostly in CTmin estimates. Mating status had a little effect on cold and heat tolerance. Complex patterns of thermal limit variation within and among populations suggest a suite of factors determine population-level mortality from thermal extremes under field conditions in medfly. These results contribute towards understanding the invasion dynamics of medfly and its range expansion to northern, more temperate regions of Europe.

Near-maximally swimming schoolmaster snapper (Lutjanus apodus) have a greater metabolic capacity, and slightly lower thermal tolerance, than when tested at rest

To assess the relationship among various measures of thermal tolerance and performance suggested for use in fish, we determined the critical thermal maximum (CTmax), critical swimming speed (Ucrit), maximum thermal tolerance while swimming [CTSmax] and realistic aerobic scope (ASR) of juvenile schoolmaster snapper (Lutjanus apodus). Their CTSmax (37.5±0.1°C) was only slightly lower than their CTmax (38.9±0.1°C) and this is probably because their maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and ASR during the former test were ∼42 and 65% higher, respectively. Furthermore, we did not observe a transition to unsteady (i.e. anaerobically fueled) swimming in the CTSmax test as we did in the Ucrit protocol. These data strongly suggest that thermal tolerance tests on fishes whose lifestyle involves schooling or sustained activity should be performed at ecologically relevant swimming speeds. Our results do not support the hypothesis that failure during a CTSmax test is due to a fish's inability to meet its tissue oxygen demands.

Greater plasticity in CTmax with increased climate variability among populations of tailed frogs

Temporally variable climates are expected to drive the evolution of thermal physiological traits that enable performance across a wider range of temperatures (i.e. climate variability hypothesis, CVH). Spatial thermal variability, however, may mediate this relationship by providing ectotherms with the opportunity to behaviourally select preferred temperatures (i.e. the Bogert effect). These antagonistic forces on thermal physiological traits may explain the mixed support for the CVH within species despite strong support among species at larger geographical scales. Here, we test the CVH as it relates to plasticity in physiological upper thermal limits (critical thermal maximum-CTmax) among populations of coastal tailed frogs (Ascaphus truei). We targeted populations that inhabit spatially homogeneous environments, reducing the potentially confounding effects of behavioural thermoregulation. We found that populations experiencing greater temporal thermal variability exhibited greater plasticity in CTmax, supporting the CVH. Interestingly, we identified only one site with spatial temperature variability and tadpoles from this site demonstrated greater plasticity than expected, suggesting the opportunity for behavioural thermoregulation can reduce support for the CVH. Overall, our results demonstrate one role of climate variability in shaping thermal plasticity among populations and provide a baseline understanding of the impact of the CVH in spatially homogeneous thermal landscapes.

Re-Equilibrating Sex Ratios: Adjustment of Reaction Norms in Species With Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination

Fisher's general principle for sex allocation holds that population sex ratios are typically balanced because parents producing the rare sex are benefited and the rare sex alternates over time. In species that have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), thermal reaction norms need to be adjusted at the population level to avoid extremely biased sex ratios and extinction. Extant species with TSD experienced drastic climatic changes in the geological past and must necessarily have mechanisms of adaptation. I propose here a conceptual framework to explain how TSD curves could be adjusted by means of natural selection, based on Fisher's equilibrium sex-ratio principle. Through a process that alternatively favors mothers that tend to produce the rare sex under new temperatures, sex ratios eventually return toward a theoretical equilibrium. Prerequisites for this model are variability among mothers in the tendency to produce a particular sex at a given temperature (i.e., variability in the thermal reaction norm), inheritance of this trend, and higher fitness of the rare sex. This straightforward mechanism could facilitate thermal adaptation in species with TSD over multiple generations.

Method of estimating sea-surface paleotemperatures through biotic proxies: A case study in Upper Paleozoic paleoclimatic, paleogeographic and paleotectonic reconstructions of Siberia

This study introduces a novel approach for quantitatively assessing sea-surface paleotemperatures examined in the Upper Paleozoic of Siberia, utilizing the obtained in the region data as a case study of the use of this method. The method relies on evaluating the taxonomic composition and ecological proxies of biota. It utilizes a comprehensive dataset encompassing the geographic distribution and ecology of various biotic groups in Siberia and adjacent regions, leveraging the newly developed by the authors large PaleoSib database and partially the Paleobiology Database (paleobiology.org) The taxonomy has been used according to the database of Global Biodiversity Information Facility (gbif.org). Fossils collected from individual locations often exhibit a wide spectrum of paleotemperatures. To address this variability, we developed an algorithm for calculating average biotic paleotemperatures in each locality/time slice. Our computations of the available data have unveiled a coherent pattern of paleoclimate dynamics, particularly Sea Surface Temperature, across Siberian basins and surrounding areas during the Late Paleozoic era. These findings significantly contribute to a refined comprehension of paleoclimate and paleotectonic dynamics in the region during that specific time. To enhance paleotemperature analyses, we have integrated lithological indices with biotic ones, fortifying the overall methodology and furnishing a more robust framework for interpreting paleoclimate data. The method could be a helpful tool in regional and interregional studies, regardless of the utilized rock's age and fossil groups.

Too Hot to Handle: A Meta-Analytical Review of the Thermal Tolerance and Adaptive Capacity of North American Sturgeon

Understanding how ectotherms may fare with rising global temperatures and more frequent heatwaves is especially concerning for species already considered at-risk, such as long-lived, late-maturing sturgeon. There have been concerted efforts to collect data on the movement behavior and thermal physiology of North American sturgeon to enhance conservation efforts; thus, we sought to synthesize these data to understand how sturgeon respond to thermal stress and what capacity they have to acclimate and adapt to warming. Here, we combined a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, integrating field-based observations (distribution and spawning) and laboratory-based experiments (survival, activity, growth, metabolism, and upper thermal limits) for large-scale insights to understand the vulnerability of North American sturgeon to rising global temperatures. We summarized the preferred thermal habitat and thermal limits of sturgeon in their natural environment and using meta-analytical techniques, quantified the effect of prolonged temperature change on sturgeon whole-animal physiology and acute upper thermal limits. While acclimation did not have significant effects on physiological rates or survival overall, there were positive trends of activity and metabolism in young-of-the-year sturgeons, likely offset by negative trends of survival in early life. Notably, North American sturgeon have a greater capacity for thermal tolerance plasticity than other fishes, increasing upper thermal limits by 0.56°C per 1°C change in acclimation temperature. But with limited laboratory-based studies, more research is needed to understand if this is a sturgeon trait, or perhaps that of basal fishes in general. Importantly, with these data gaps, the fate of sturgeon remains uncertain as climate change intensifies, and physiological impacts across life stages likely limit ecological success.

Measuring maximum heart rate to study cardiac thermal performance and heat tolerance in fishes

The thermal sensitivity of heart rate (fH) in fishes has fascinated comparative physiologists for well over a century. We now know that elevating fH is the primary mechanism through which fishes increase convective oxygen delivery during warming to meet the concomitant rise in tissue oxygen consumption. Thus, limits on fH can constrain whole-animal aerobic metabolism. In this Review, we discuss an increasingly popular methodology to study these limits, the measurement of pharmacologically induced maximum fH (fH,max) during acute warming of an anaesthetized fish. During acute warming, fH,max increases exponentially over moderate temperatures (Q10∼2-3), but this response is blunted with further warming (Q10∼1-2), with fH,max ultimately reaching a peak (Q10≤1) and the heartbeat becoming arrhythmic. Because the temperatures at which these transitions occur commonly align with whole-animal optimum and critical temperatures (e.g. aerobic scope and the critical thermal maximum), they can be valuable indicators of thermal performance. The method can be performed simultaneously on multiple individuals over a few hours and across a broad size range (<1 to >6000 g) with compact equipment. This simplicity and high throughput make it tractable in lab and field settings and enable large experimental designs that would otherwise be impractical. As with all reductionist approaches, the method does have limitations. Namely, it requires anaesthesia and pharmacological removal of extrinsic cardiac regulation. Nonetheless, the method has proven particularly effective in the study of patterns and limits of thermal plasticity and holds promise for helping to predict and mitigate outcomes of environmental change.

Drivers of Intraspecific Variation in Thermal Traits and Their Importance for Resilience to Global Change in Amphibians

Intraspecific variation can be as great as variation across species, but the role of intraspecific variation in driving local and large-scale patterns is often overlooked, particularly in the field of thermal biology. In amphibians, which depend on environmental conditions and behavior to regulate body temperature, recognizing intraspecific thermal trait variation is essential to comprehensively understanding how global change impacts populations. Here, we examine the drivers of micro- and macrogeographical intraspecific thermal trait variation in amphibians. At the local scale, intraspecific variation can arise via changes in ontogeny, body size, and between the sexes, and developmental plasticity, acclimation, and maternal effects may modulate predictions of amphibian performance under future climate scenarios. At the macrogeographic scale, local adaptation in thermal traits may occur along latitudinal and elevational gradients, with seasonality and range-edge dynamics likely playing important roles in patterns that may impact future persistence. We also discuss the importance of considering disease as a factor affecting intraspecific variation in thermal traits and population resilience to climate change, given the impact of pathogens on thermal preferences and critical thermal limits of hosts. Finally, we make recommendations for future work in this area. Ultimately, our goal is to demonstrate why it is important for researchers to consider intraspecific variation to determine the resilience of amphibians to global change.

The Shape of Water: Physiological Adaptations to Habitat Aridity in the Ornate Tree Lizard (Urosaurus ornatus)

Deserts have always amazed researchers due to their high diversity of habitats, where plant and animal species have been able to adapt and diversify, even when these areas impose several constraints on an organism's activity patterns. In particular, deserts support several lizard species adapted to the thermal and water restrictions found in such biomes. Although several studies have attempted to understand how lizard species might respond to water deficits or droughts in deserts, few have addressed how these responses might vary along a latitudinal gradient. This raises the question of whether physiological buffering of the organism or the climatic environment affects water loss in lizards. Here, we used six populations of Urosaurus ornatus to test whether water loss is influenced more by the intrinsic physiology of the lizard or by the climatic niche. We found that water loss is primarily influenced by the climatic niche of the lizard. However, future studies should focus on how microclimatic variables can influence water loss in organisms found across large latitudinal gradients.

Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: Aedes sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, facilitating expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis, a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in acute heat tolerance, which phenotypically trades off with tolerance to prolonged heat exposure. A simple evolutionary model based on our data shows that the estimated maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance typically exceeds that of projected climate warming under idealized conditions. Our findings indicate that natural mosquito populations may have the potential to track projected warming via genetic adaptation. Prior climate-based projections may thus underestimate the range of mosquito and mosquito-borne disease distributions under future climate conditions.

Regional thermal variation in a coral reef fish

How species respond to climate change will depend on the collective response of populations. Intraspecific variation in traits, evolved through genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, can cause thermal performance curves to vary over species' distributions. Intraspecific variation within marine species has received relatively little attention due to the belief that marine systems lack dispersal barriers strong enough to promote locally adapted traits. Here we show that intraspecific variation is present between low- and high-latitude populations of a coral reef damselfish (Acanthochromis polyacanthus). Co-gradient variation was observed when examining aerobic physiology across a thermal gradient that reflected mean summer temperatures of high- and low-latitude regions, as well as projected future ocean temperatures (i.e. 27, 28.5, 30, 31.5°C). Whilst thermally sensitive, no significant differences were observed between high- and low-latitude regions when measuring immunocompetence, haematocrit and anaerobic enzyme activity. The presence of co-gradient variation suggests that dispersal limitations in marine systems can promote local adaptive responses; however, intraspecific variation may not be ubiquitous amongst traits. Identifying locally adapted traits amongst populations remains necessary to accurately project species responses to climate change and identify differences in adaptive potential.

Collective effects of rising average temperatures and heat events on oviparous embryos

Survival of the immobile embryo in response to rising temperature is important to determine a species' vulnerability to climate change. However, the collective effects of 2 key thermal characteristics associated with climate change (i.e., rising average temperature and acute heat events) on embryonic survival remain largely unexplored. We used empirical measurements and niche modeling to investigate how chronic and acute heat stress independently and collectively influence the embryonic survival of lizards across latitudes. We collected and bred lizards from 5 latitudes and incubated their eggs across a range of temperatures to quantify population-specific responses to chronic and acute heat stress. Using an embryonic development model parameterized with measured embryonic heat tolerances, we further identified a collective impact of embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerances on embryonic survival. We also incorporated embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerance in hybrid species distribution models to determine species' range shifts under climate change. Embryos' tolerance of chronic heat (T-chronic) remained consistent across latitudes, whereas their tolerance of acute heat (T-acute) was higher at high latitudes than at low latitudes. Tolerance of acute heat exerted a more pronounced influence than tolerance of chronic heat. In species distribution models, climate change led to the most significant habitat loss for each population and species in its low-latitude distribution. Consequently, habitat for populations across all latitudes will shift toward high latitudes. Our study also highlights the importance of considering embryonic survival under chronic and acute heat stresses to predict species' vulnerability to climate change.

Diet effects on ectotherm thermal performance

The environment is changing rapidly, and considerable research is aimed at understanding the capacity of organisms to respond. Changes in environmental temperature are particularly concerning as most animals are ectothermic, with temperature considered a key factor governing their ecology, biogeography, behaviour and physiology. The ability of ectotherms to persist in an increasingly warm, variable, and unpredictable future will depend on their nutritional status. Nutritional resources (e.g. food availability, quality, options) vary across space and time and in response to environmental change, but animals also have the capacity to alter how much they eat and what they eat, which may help them improve their performance under climate change. In this review, we discuss the state of knowledge in the intersection between animal nutrition and temperature. We take a mechanistic approach to describe nutrients (i.e. broad macronutrients, specific lipids, and micronutrients) that may impact thermal performance and discuss what is currently known about their role in ectotherm thermal plasticity, thermoregulatory behaviour, diet preference, and thermal tolerance. We finish by describing how this topic can inform ectotherm biogeography, behaviour, and aquaculture research.

Nutritional Partitioning among Sympatric Ungulates in Eastern Tibet

Wild ungulates play crucial roles in maintaining the structure and function of local ecosystems. The alpine musk deer (Moschus chrysogaste), white-lipped deer (Przewalskium albirostris), and red serow (Capricornis rubidus) are widely distributed throughout the Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains of Tibet. However, research on the mechanisms underlying their coexistence in the same habitat remains lacking. This study aimed to investigate the mechanisms underlying the coexistence of these species based on their dietary preferences through DNA barcoding using the fecal samples of these animals collected from the study area. These species consume a wide variety of food types. Alpine musk deer, white-lipped deer, and red serow consume plants belonging to 74 families and 114 genera, 62 families and 122 genera, and 63 families and 113 genera, respectively. Furthermore, significant differences were observed in the nutritional ecological niche among these species, primarily manifested in the differentiation of food types and selection of food at the genus level. Owing to differences in social behavior, body size, and habitat selection, these three species further expand their differentiation in resource selection, thereby making more efficient use of environmental resources. Our findings indicate these factors are the primary reasons for the stable coexistence of these species.

Ontogenetic variation in metabolic rate-temperature relationships during larval development

Predictive models of ectotherm responses to environmental change often rely on thermal performance data from the literature. For insects, the majority of these data focus on two traits, development rate and thermal tolerance limits. Data are also often limited to the adult stage. Consequently, predictions based on these data generally ignore other measures of thermal performance and do not account for the role of ontogenetic variation in thermal physiology across the complex insect life cycle. Theoretical syntheses for predicting metabolic rate also make similar assumptions despite the strong influence of body size as well as temperature on metabolic rate. The aim of this study was to understand the influence of ontogenetic variation on ectotherm physiology and its potential impact on predictive modeling. To do this, we examined metabolic rate-temperature (MR-T) relationships across the larval stage in a laboratory strain of the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar). Routine metabolic rates (RMRs) of larvae were assayed at eight temperatures across the first five instars of the larval stage. After accounting for differences in body mass, larval instars showed significant variation in MR-T. Both the temperature sensitivity and allometry of RMR increased and peaked during the third instar, then declined in the fourth and fifth instar. Generally, these results show that insect thermal physiology does not remain static during larval ontogeny and suggest that ontogenetic variation should be an important consideration when modeling thermal performance.

Anticipating change: The impact of simulated seasonal heterogeneity on heat tolerances along a latitudinal cline

An understanding of thermal limits and variation across geographic regions is central to predicting how any population may respond to global change. Latitudinal clines, in particular, have been used to demonstrate that populations can be locally adapted to their own thermal environment and, as a result, not all populations will be equally impacted by an increase in temperature. But how robust are these signals of thermal adaptation to the other ecological challenges that animals commonly face in the wild? Seasonal changes in population density, food availability, or photoperiod are common ecological challenges that could disrupt patterns of thermal tolerance along a cline if each population differentially used these signals to anticipate future temperatures and adjust their thermal tolerances accordingly. In this study, we aimed to test the robustness of a cline in thermal tolerance to simulated signals of seasonal heterogeneity. Experimental animals were derived from clones of the Australian water flea, Daphnia carinata, sampled from nine distinct populations along a latitudinal transect in Eastern Australia. We then factorially combined summer (18 h light, 6 h dark) and winter (6 h light, 18 h dark) photoperiods with high (5 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) and low (1 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) food availabilities, before performing static heat shock assays to measure thermal tolerance. We found that the thermal tolerances of the clonal populations were sensitive to both measures of seasonal change. In general, higher food availability led to an increase in thermal tolerances, with the magnitude of the increase varying by clone. In contrast, a switch in photoperiod led to rank-order changes in thermal tolerances, with heat resistance increasing for some clones, and decreasing for others. Heat resistance, however, still declined with increasing latitude, irrespective of the manipulation of seasonal signals, with clones from northern populations always showing greater thermal resistance, most likely driven by adaptation to winter thermal conditions. While photoperiod and food availability can clearly shape thermal tolerances for specific populations, they are unlikely to overwhelm overarching signals of thermal adaptation, and thus, observed clines in heat resistance will likely have remained robust to these forms of seasonal heterogeneity.

Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches

The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (~49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower-yet still alarming-rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.

Ocean warming and acidification adjust inter- and intra-specific variability in the functional trait expression of polar invertebrates

Climate change is known to affect the distribution and composition of species, but concomitant alterations to functionally important aspects of behaviour and species-environment relations are poorly constrained. Here, we examine the ecosystem ramifications of changes in sediment-dwelling invertebrate bioturbation behaviour-a key process mediating nutrient cycling-associated with near-future environmental conditions (+ 1.5 °C, 550 ppm [pCO2]) for species from polar regions experiencing rapid rates of climate change. We find that responses to warming and acidification vary between species and lead to a reduction in intra-specific variability in behavioural trait expression that adjusts the magnitude and direction of nutrient concentrations. Our analyses also indicate that species behaviour is not predetermined, but can be dependent on local variations in environmental history that set population capacities for phenotypic plasticity. We provide evidence that certain, but subtle, aspects of inter- and intra-specific variation in behavioural trait expression, rather than the presence or proportional representation of species per se, is an important and under-appreciated determinant of benthic biogeochemical responses to climate change. Such changes in species behaviour may act as an early warning for impending ecological transitions associated with progressive climate forcing.

Flexibility in thermal requirements: a comparative analysis of the wide-spread lizard genus Sceloporus

Adaptation or acclimation of thermal requirements to environmental conditions can reduce thermoregulation costs and increase fitness, especially in ectotherms, which rely heavily on environmental temperatures for thermoregulation. Insight into how thermal niches have shaped thermal requirements across evolutionary history may help predict the survival of species during climate change. The lizard genus Sceloporus has a widespread distribution and inhabits an ample variety of habitats. We evaluated the effects of geographical gradients (i.e. elevation and latitude) and local environmental temperatures on thermal requirements (i.e. preferred body temperature, active body temperature in the field, and critical thermal limits) of Sceloporus species using published and field-collected data and performing phylogenetic comparative analyses. To contrast macro- and micro-evolutional patterns, we also performed intra-specific analyses when sufficient reports existed for a species. We found that preferred body temperature increased with elevation, whereas body temperature in the field decreased with elevation and increased with local environmental temperatures. Critical thermal limits were not related to the geographic gradient or environmental temperatures. The apparent lack of relation of thermal requirements to geographic gradient may increase vulnerability to extinction due to climate change. However, local and temporal variations in thermal landscape determine thermoregulation opportunities and may not be well represented by geographic gradient and mean environmental temperatures. Results showed that Sceloporus lizards are excellent thermoregulators, have wide thermal tolerance ranges, and the preferred temperature was labile. Our results suggest that Sceloporus lizards can adjust to different thermal landscapes, highlighting opportunities for continuous survival in changing thermal environments.

Acclimation of thermal tolerance in juvenile plants from three biomes is suppressed when extremes co-occur

Given the rising frequency of thermal extremes (heatwaves and cold snaps) due to climate change, comprehending how a plant's origin affects its thermal tolerance breadth (TTB) becomes vital. We studied juvenile plants from three biomes: temperate coastal rainforest, desert and alpine. In controlled settings, plants underwent hot days and cold nights in a factorial design to examine thermal tolerance acclimation. We assessed thermal thresholds (T crit-hot and T crit-cold) and TTB. We hypothesized that (i) desert species would show the highest heat tolerance, alpine species the greatest cold tolerance and temperate species intermediate tolerance; (ii) all species would increase heat tolerance after hot days and cold tolerance after cold nights; (iii) combined exposure would broaden TTB more than individual conditions, especially in desert and alpine species. We found that biome responses were minor compared to the responses to the extreme temperature treatments. All plants increased thermal tolerance in response to hot 40°C days (T crit-hot increased by ~3.5°C), but there was minimal change in T crit-cold in response to the cold -2°C nights. In contrast, when exposed to both hot days and cold nights, on average, plants exhibited an antagonistic response in TTB, where cold tolerance decreased and heat tolerance was reduced, and so we did not see the bi-directional expansion we hypothesized. There was, however, considerable variation among species in these responses. As climate change intensifies, plant communities, especially in transitional seasons, will regularly face such temperature swings. Our results shed light on potential plant responses under these extremes, emphasizing the need for deeper species-specific thermal acclimation insights, ultimately guiding conservation efforts.

Climate change consequences on the systemic heart of female Octopus maya: oxidative phosphorylation assessment and the antioxidant system

There is evidence that indicates that temperature modulates the reproduction of the tropical species Octopus maya, through the over- or under-expression of many genes in the brain. If the oxygen supply to the brain depends on the circulatory system, how temperature affects different tissues will begin in the heart, responsible for pumping the oxygen to tissues. The present study examines the impact of heat stress on the mitochondrial function of the systemic heart of adult O. maya. The mitochondrial metabolism and antioxidant defense system were measured in the systemic heart tissue of female organisms acclimated to different temperatures (24, 26, and 30°C). The results show that acclimation temperature affects respiratory State 3 and State 4o (oligomycin-induced) with higher values observed in females acclimated at 26°C. The antioxidant defense system is also affected by acclimation temperature with significant differences observed in superoxide dismutase, glutathione S-transferase activities, and glutathione levels. The results suggest that high temperatures (30°C) could exert physical limitations on the circulatory system through the heart pumping, affecting nutrient and oxygen transport to other tissues, including the brain, which exerts control over the reproductive system. The role of the cardiovascular system in supporting aerobic metabolism in octopus females is discussed.

Naturally segregating genetic variants contribute to thermal tolerance in a Drosophila melanogaster model system

Thermal tolerance is a fundamental physiological complex trait for survival in many species. For example, everyday tasks such as foraging, finding a mate, and avoiding predation are highly dependent on how well an organism can tolerate extreme temperatures. Understanding the general architecture of the natural variants within the genes that control this trait is of high importance if we want to better comprehend thermal physiology. Here, we take a multipronged approach to further dissect the genetic architecture that controls thermal tolerance in natural populations using the Drosophila Synthetic Population Resource as a model system. First, we used quantitative genetics and Quantitative Trait Loci mapping to identify major effect regions within the genome that influences thermal tolerance, then integrated RNA-sequencing to identify differences in gene expression, and lastly, we used the RNAi system to (1) alter tissue-specific gene expression and (2) functionally validate our findings. This powerful integration of approaches not only allows for the identification of the genetic basis of thermal tolerance but also the physiology of thermal tolerance in a natural population, which ultimately elucidates thermal tolerance through a fitness-associated lens.

Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of ectotherms

Climate warming is predicted to increase mean temperatures and thermal extremes on a global scale. Because their body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, ectotherms bear the full brunt of climate warming. Predicting the impact of climate warming on ectotherm diversity and distributions requires a framework that can translate temperature effects on ectotherm life-history traits into population- and community-level outcomes. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that can predict the fundamental thermal niche and climate envelope of ectotherm species based on how temperature affects the underlying life-history traits. The advantage of this framework is twofold. First, it can translate temperature effects on the phenotypic traits of individual organisms to population-level patterns observed in nature. Second, it can predict thermal niches and climate envelopes based solely on trait response data and, hence, completely independently of any population-level information. We find that the temperature at which the intrinsic growth rate is maximized exceeds the temperature at which abundance is maximized under density-dependent growth. As a result, the temperature at which a species will increase the fastest when rare is lower than the temperature at which it will recover from a perturbation the fastest when abundant. We test model predictions using data from a naturalized-invasive interaction to identify the temperatures at which the invasive can most easily invade the naturalized's habitat and the naturalized is most likely to resist the invasive. The framework is sufficiently mechanistic to yield reliable predictions for individual species and sufficiently broad to apply across a range of ectothermic taxa. This ability to predict the thermal niche before a species encounters a new thermal environment is essential to mitigating some of the major effects of climate change on ectotherm populations around the globe.

A rapid return to normal: temporal gene expression patterns following cold exposure in the bumble bee Bombus impatiens

Bumble bees are common in cooler climates and many species likely experience periodic exposure to very cold temperatures, but little is known about the temporal dynamics of cold response mechanisms following chill exposure, especially how persistent effects of cold exposure may facilitate tolerance of future events. To investigate molecular processes involved in the temporal response by bumble bees to acute cold exposure, we compared mRNA transcript abundance in Bombus impatiens workers exposed to 0°C for 75 min (inducing chill coma) and control bees maintained at a constant ambient temperature (28°C). We sequenced the 3' end of mRNA transcripts (TagSeq) to quantify gene expression in thoracic tissue of bees at several time points (0, 10, 30, 120 and 720 min) following cold exposure. Significant differences from control bees were only detectable within 30 min after the treatment, with most occurring at the 10 min recovery time point. Genes associated with gluconeogenesis and glycolysis were most notably upregulated, while genes related to lipid and purine metabolism were downregulated. The observed patterns of expression indicate a rapid recovery after chill coma, suggesting an acute differential transcriptional response during recovery from chill coma and return to baseline expression levels within an hour, with no long-term gene expression markers of this cold exposure. Our work highlights the functions and pathways important for acute cold recovery, provides an estimated time frame for recovery from cold exposure in bumble bees, and suggests that cold hardening may be less important for these heterothermic insects.

Acclimation capacity to global warming of amphibians and freshwater fishes: Drivers, patterns, and data limitations

Amphibians and fishes play a central role in shaping the structure and function of freshwater environments. These organisms have a limited capacity to disperse across different habitats and the thermal buffer offered by freshwater systems is small. Understanding determinants and patterns of their physiological sensitivity across life history is, therefore, imperative to predicting the impacts of climate change in freshwater systems. Based on a systematic literature review including 345 experiments with 998 estimates on 96 amphibian (Anura/Caudata) and 93 freshwater fish species (Teleostei), we conducted a quantitative synthesis to explore phylogenetic, ontogenetic, and biogeographic (thermal adaptation) patterns in upper thermal tolerance (CTmax) and thermal acclimation capacity (acclimation response ratio, ARR) as well as the influence of the methodology used to assess these thermal traits using a conditional inference tree analysis. We found globally consistent patterns in CTmax and ARR, with phylogeny (taxa/order), experimental methodology, climatic origin, and life stage as significant determinants of thermal traits. The analysis demonstrated that CTmax does not primarily depend on the climatic origin but on experimental acclimation temperature and duration, and life stage. Higher acclimation temperatures and longer acclimation times led to higher CTmax values, whereby Anuran larvae revealed a higher CTmax than older life stages. The ARR of freshwater fishes was more than twice that of amphibians. Differences in ARR between life stages were not significant. In addition to phylogenetic differences, we found that ARR also depended on acclimation duration, ramping rate, and adaptation to local temperature variability. However, the amount of data on early life stages is too small, methodologically inconsistent, and phylogenetically unbalanced to identify potential life cycle bottlenecks in thermal traits. We, therefore, propose methods to improve the robustness and comparability of CTmax/ARR data across species and life stages, which is crucial for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity under climate change.

High-resolution climate data reveal an increasing risk of warming-driven activity restriction for diurnal and nocturnal lizards

Widespread species experience a variety of climates across their distribution, which can structure their thermal tolerance, and ultimately, responses to climate change. For ectotherms, activity is highly dependent on temperature, its variability and availability of favourable microclimates. Thermal exposure and tolerance may be structured by the availability and heterogeneity of microclimates for species living along temperature and/or precipitation gradients - but patterns and mechanisms underlying such gradients are poorly understood. We measured critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) for five populations of two sympatric lizard species, a nocturnal gecko (Chondrodactylus bibronii) and a diurnal skink (Trachylepis variegata) and recorded hourly thermal variation for a year in three types of microclimate relevant to the activity of lizards (crevice, full sun and partial shade) for six sites across a precipitation gradient. Using a combination of physiological and modelling approaches, we derived warming tolerance for the present and the end of the century. In the present climate, we found an overall wider thermal tolerance for the nocturnal species relative to the diurnal species, and no variation in CTmax but variable CTmin along the precipitation gradient for both species. However, warming tolerances varied significantly over the course of the day, across months and microhabitats. The diurnal skink was most restricted in its daily activity in the three driest sites with up to six daily hours of restricted activity in the open (i.e. outside refugia) during the summer months, while the impacts for the nocturnal gecko were less severe, due to its higher CTmax and night activity. With climate change, lizards will experience more months where activity is restricted and increased exposure to high temperatures even within the more sheltered microhabitats. Together our results highlight the importance of considering the relevant spatiotemporal scale and habitat for understanding the thermal exposure of diurnal and nocturnal species.

The Geography of Metacommunities: Landscape Characteristics Drive Geographic Variation in the Assembly Process through Selecting Species Pool Attributes

AbstractThe nonrandom association between landscape characteristics and the dominant life history strategies observed in species pools is a typical pattern in nature. Here, we argue that these associations determine predictable changes in the relative importance of assembly mechanisms along broadscale geographic gradients (i.e., the geographic context of metacommunity dynamics). To demonstrate that, we employed simulation models in which groups of species with the same initial distribution of niche breadths and dispersal abilities interacted across a wide range of landscapes with contrasting characteristics. By assessing the traits of dominant species in the species pool in each landscape type, we determined how different landscape characteristics select for different life history strategies at the metacommunity level. We analyzed the simulated data using the same analytical approaches used in the study of empirical metacommunities to derive predictions about the causal relationships between landscape characteristics and dominant life histories in species pools, as well as their reciprocal influence on empirical inferences regarding the assembly process. We provide empirical support for these predictions by contrasting the assembly of moth metacommunities in a tropical versus a temperate mountainous landscape. Together, our model framework and empirical analyses demonstrate how the geographic context of metacommunities influences our understanding of community assembly across broadscale ecological gradients.

Responses of the coral reef cryptobiome to environmental gradients in the Red Sea

An essential component of the coral reef animal diversity is the species hidden in crevices within the reef matrix, referred to as the cryptobiome. These organisms play an important role in nutrient cycling and provide an abundant food source for higher trophic levels, yet they have been largely overlooked. Here, we analyzed the distribution patterns of the mobile cryptobiome (>2000 μm) along the latitudinal gradient of the Saudi Arabian coast of the Red Sea. Analysis was conducted based on 54 Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures. We retrieved a total of 5273 organisms, from which 2583 DNA sequences from the mitochondrially encoded cytochrome c oxidase I were generated through sanger sequencing. We found that the cryptobiome community is variable over short geographical distances within the basin. Regression tree models identified sea surface temperature (SST), percentage cover of hard coral and turf algae as determinant for the number of operational taxonomic units present per Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS). Our results also show that the community structure of the cryptobiome is associated with the energy available (measured as photosynthetic active radiation), sea surface temperature, and nearby reef habitat characteristics (namely hard corals, turf and macroalgae). Given that temperature and reef benthic characteristics affect the cryptobiome, current scenarios of intensive climate change are likely to modify this fundamental biological component of coral reef functioning. However, the trajectory of change is unknow and can be site specific, as for example, diversity is expected to increase above SST of 28.5°C, and with decreasing hard coral and turf cover. This study provides a baseline of the cryptobenthic community prior to major coastal developments in the Red Sea to be used for future biodiversity studies and monitoring projects. It can also contribute to better understand patterns of reef biodiversity in a period where Marine Protected Areas are being discussed in the region.

How seasonality influences the thermal biology of lizards with different thermoregulatory strategies: a meta-analysis

Ectotherms that maintain thermal balance in the face of varying climates should be able to colonise a wide range of habitats. In lizards, thermoregulation usually appears as a variety of behaviours that buffer external influences over physiology. Basking species rely on solar radiation to raise body temperatures and usually show high thermoregulatory precision. By contrast, species that do not bask are often constrained by climatic conditions in their habitats, thus having lower thermoregulatory precision. While much focus has been given to the effects of mean habitat temperatures, relatively less is known about how seasonality affects the thermal biology of lizards on a macroecological scale. Considering the current climate crisis, assessing how lizards cope with temporal variations in environmental temperature is essential to understand better how these organisms will fare under climate change. Activity body temperatures (Tb ) represent the internal temperature of an animal measured in nature during its active period (i.e. realised thermal niche), and preferred body temperatures (Tpref ) are those selected by an animal in a laboratory thermal gradient that lacks thermoregulatory costs (i.e. fundamental thermal niche). Both traits form the bulk of thermal ecology research and are often studied in the context of seasonality. In this study, we used a meta-analysis to test how environmental temperature seasonality influences the seasonal variation in the Tb and Tpref of lizards that differ in thermoregulatory strategy (basking versus non-basking). Based on 333 effect sizes from 137 species, we found that Tb varied over a greater magnitude than Tpref across seasons. Variations in Tb were not influenced by environmental temperature seasonality; however, body size and thermoregulatory strategy mediated Tb responses. Specifically, larger species were subjected to greater seasonal variations in Tb , and basking species endured greater seasonal variations in Tb compared to non-basking species. On the other hand, the seasonal variation in Tpref increased with environmental temperature seasonality regardless of body size. Thermoregulatory strategy also influenced Tpref , suggesting that behaviour has an important role in mediating Tpref responses to seasonal variations in the thermal landscape. After controlling for phylogenetic effects, we showed that Tb and Tpref varied significantly across lizard families. Taken together, our results support the notion that the relationship between thermal biology responses and climatic parameters can be taxon and trait dependent. Our results also showcase the importance of considering ecological and behavioural aspects in macroecological studies. We further highlight current systematic, geographical, and knowledge gaps in thermal ecology research. Our work should benefit those who aim to understand more fully how seasonality shapes thermal biology in lizards, ultimately contributing to the goal of elucidating the evolution of temperature-sensitive traits in ectotherms.

Heatwaves are detrimental to fertility in the viviparous tsetse fly

Heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, pushing animals beyond physiological limits. While most studies focus on survival limits, sublethal effects on fertility tend to occur below lethal thresholds, and consequently can be as important for population viability. Typically, male fertility is more heat-sensitive than female fertility, yet direct comparisons are limited. Here, we measured the effect of experimental heatwaves on tsetse flies, Glossina pallidipes, disease vectors and unusual live-bearing insects of sub-Saharan Africa. We exposed males or females to a 3-day heatwave peaking at 36, 38 or 40°C for 2 h, and a 25°C control, monitoring mortality and reproduction over six weeks. For a heatwave peaking at 40°C, mortality was 100%, while a 38°C peak resulted in only 8% acute mortality. Females exposed to the 38°C heatwave experienced a one-week delay in producing offspring, whereas no such delay occurred in males. Over six weeks, heatwaves resulted in equivalent fertility loss in both sexes. Combined with mortality, this lead to a 10% population decline over six weeks compared to the control. Furthermore, parental heatwave exposure gave rise to a female-biased offspring sex ratio. Ultimately, thermal limits of both survival and fertility should be considered when assessing climate change vulnerability.

Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.

Beyond a single temperature threshold: Applying a cumulative thermal stress framework to plant heat tolerance

Most plant thermal tolerance studies focus on single critical thresholds, which limit the capacity to generalise across studies and predict heat stress under natural conditions. In animals and microbes, thermal tolerance landscapes describe the more realistic, cumulative effects of temperature. We tested this in plants by measuring the decline in leaf photosynthetic efficiency (FV/FM) following a combination of temperatures and exposure times and then modelled these physiological indices alongside recorded environmental temperatures. We demonstrate that a general relationship between stressful temperatures and exposure durations can be effectively employed to quantify and compare heat tolerance within and across plant species and over time. Importantly, we show how FV/FM curves translate to plants under natural conditions, suggesting that environmental temperatures often impair photosynthetic function. Our findings provide more robust descriptors of heat tolerance in plants and suggest that heat tolerance in disparate groups of organisms can be studied with a single predictive framework.

Equivocal support for the climate variability hypothesis within a Neotropical bird assemblage

The climate variability hypothesis posits that an organism's exposure to temperature variability determines the breadth of its thermal tolerance and has become an important framework for understanding variation in species' susceptibilities to climate change. For example, ectotherms from more thermally stable environments tend to have narrower thermal tolerances and greater sensitivity to projected climate warming. Among endotherms, however, the relationship between climate variability and thermal physiology is less clear, particularly with regard to microclimate variation-small-scale differences within or between habitats. To address this gap, we explored associations between two sources of temperature variation (habitat type and vertical forest stratum) and (1) thermal physiological traits and (2) temperature sensitivity metrics within a diverse assemblage of Neotropical birds (n = 89 species). We used long-term temperature data to establish that daily temperature regimes in open habitats and forest canopy were both hotter and more variable than those in the forest interior and forest understory, respectively. Despite these differences in temperature regime, however, we found little evidence that species' thermal physiological traits or temperature sensitivity varied in association with either habitat type or vertical stratum. Our findings provide two novel and important insights. First, and in contrast to the supporting empirical evidence from ectotherms, the thermal physiology of birds at our study site appears to be largely decoupled from local temperature variation, providing equivocal support for the climate variability hypothesis in endotherms. Second, we found no evidence that the thermal physiology of understory forest birds differed from that of canopy or open-habitat species-an oft-invoked, yet previously untested, mechanism for why these species are so vulnerable to environmental change.

Thermal limits along tropical elevational gradients: Poison frog tadpoles show plasticity but maintain divergence across elevation

Temperature is arguably one of the most critical environmental factors impacting organisms at molecular, organismal, and ecological levels. Temperature variation across elevation may cause divergent selection in physiological critical thermal limits (CTMAX and CTMIN). Generally, high elevation populations are predicted to withstand lower environmental temperatures than low elevation populations. Organisms can also exhibit phenotypic plasticity when temperature varies, although theory and empirical evidence suggest that tropical ectotherms have relatively limited ability to acclimate. To study the effect of temperature variation along elevational transects on thermal limits, we measured CTMAX and CTMIN of 934 tadpoles of a poison frog species, Epipedobates anthonyi, along two elevational gradients (200-1700 m asl) in southwestern Ecuador to investigate their thermal tolerance across elevation. We also tested if tadpoles could plastically shift their critical thermal limits in response to exposure to different temperatures representing the range of temperatures they experience in nature (20 °C, 24 °C, and 28 °C). Overall, we found that CTMAX did not change across elevation. In contrast, CTMIN was lower at higher elevations, suggesting that elevational variation in temperature influences this thermal trait. Moreover, all populations shifted their CTMAX and CTMIN according to treatment temperatures, demonstrating an acclimation response. Overall, trends in CTMIN among high, mid, and low elevation populations were maintained despite plastic responses to treatment temperature. These results demonstrate that, for tadpoles of E. anthonyi across tropical elevational gradients, temperature acts as a selective force for CTMIN, even when populations show acclimation abilities in both, CTMAX and CTMIN. Our findings advance our understanding on how environmental variation affects organisms' evolutionary trajectories and their abilities to persist in a changing climate in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

The thermal breadth of temperate and tropical freshwater insects supports the climate variability hypothesis

Climate change involves increases in mean temperature and changes in temperature variability at multiple temporal scales but research rarely considers these temporal scales. The climate variability hypothesis (CVH) provides a conceptual framework for exploring the potential effects of annual scale thermal variability across climatic zones. The CVH predicts ectotherms in temperate regions tolerate a wider range of temperatures than those in tropical regions in response to greater annual variability in temperate regions. However, various other aspects of thermal regimes (e.g. diel variability), organisms' size and taxonomic identity are also hypothesised to influence thermal tolerance. Indeed, high temperatures in the tropics have been proposed as constraining organisms' ability to tolerate a wide range of temperatures, implying that high annual maximum temperatures would be associated with tolerating a narrow range of temperatures. We measured thermal regimes and critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) of freshwater insects in the orders Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies) along elevation gradients in streams in temperate and tropical regions of eastern Australia and tested the CVH by determining which variables were most correlated with thermal breadth (T br = CTmax - CTmin). Consistent with the CVH, T br tended to increase with increasing annual temperature range. T br also increased with body size and T br was generally wider in Plecoptera than in Ephemeroptera or Trichoptera. We also find some support for a related hypothesis, the climate extreme hypothesis (CEH), particularly for predicting upper thermal limits. We found no evidence that higher annual maximum temperature constrained individuals' abilities to tolerate a wide range of temperatures. The support for the CVH we document suggests that temperate organisms may be able to tolerate wider ranges of temperatures than tropical organisms. There is an urgent need to investigate other aspects of thermal regimes, such as diel temperature cycling and minimum temperature.

How a boiling river is helping to highlight the risks of warming for tropical forests

This article is a Commentary on Kullberg et al. (2024), 241: 1447–1463.

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life-history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1200 km, we found limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations. In particular, the upper thermal limits of all life-history traits varied by less than 3°C across the species range and, for most traits, did not differ significantly between populations. For one life-history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found that maximum environmental temperatures across most of the species' range already regularly exceed the highest upper thermal limits estimated under constant temperatures. This result suggests that strategies for coping with and/or avoiding thermal extremes are likely key components of current and future mosquito thermal tolerance.

How development and survival combine to determine the thermal sensitivity of insects

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) depict variation in vital rates in response to temperature and have been an important tool to understand ecological and evolutionary constraints on the thermal sensitivity of ectotherms. TPCs allow for the calculation of indicators of thermal tolerance, such as minimum, optimum, and maximum temperatures that allow for a given metabolic function. However, these indicators are computed using only responses from surviving individuals, which can lead to underestimation of deleterious effects of thermal stress, particularly at high temperatures. Here, we advocate for an integrative framework for assessing thermal sensitivity, which combines both vital rates and survival probabilities, and focuses on the temperature interval that allows for population persistence. Using a collated data set of Lepidopteran development rate and survival measured on the same individuals, we show that development rate is generally limiting at low temperatures, while survival is limiting at high temperatures. We also uncover differences between life stages and across latitudes, with extended survival at lower temperatures in temperate regions. Our combined performance metric demonstrates similar thermal breadth in temperate and tropical individuals, an effect that only emerges from integration of both development and survival trends. We discuss the benefits of using this framework in future predictive and management contexts.

Temperature dependence of competitive ability is cold-shifted compared to that of growth rate in marine phytoplankton

The effect of climate warming on community composition is expected to be contingent on competitive outcomes, yet approaches to projecting ecological outcomes often rely on measures of density-independent performance across temperatures. Recent theory suggests that the temperature response of competitive ability differs in shape from that of population growth rate. Here, we test this hypothesis empirically and find thermal performance curves of competitive ability in aquatic microorganisms to be systematically left-shifted and flatter compared to those of exponential growth rate. The minimum resource requirement for growth, R*-an inverse indicator of competitive ability-changes with temperature following a U-shaped pattern in all four species tested, contrasting from their left-skewed density-independent growth rate thermal performance curves. Our results provide new evidence that exploitative competitive success is highest at temperatures that are sub-optimal for growth, suggesting performance estimates of density-independent variables might underpredict performance in cooler competitive environments.