Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate

Thermal variation influences the transcriptome of the major malaria vector Anopheles stephensi

The distribution and abundance of ectothermic mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, but mechanisms remain unexplored. We describe the effect of temperature on the transcriptome of Anopheles stephensi, an invasive vector of human malaria. Adult females were maintained across a range of mean temperatures (20 °C, 24 °C and 28 °C), with daily fluctuations of +5 °C and -4 °C at each mean temperature. Transcriptomes were described up to 19 days post-blood meal. Of the >3100 differentially expressed genes, we observed shared temporal expression profiles across all temperatures, suggesting their indispensability to mosquito life history. Tolerance to 20 and 28 ( + 5°C/-4°C) was associated with larger and more diverse transcriptomes compared to 24 ( + 5 °C/-4 °C). Finally, we identified two distinct trends in gene expression in response to blood meal ingestion, oxidative stress, and reproduction. Our work has implications for mosquitoes' response to thermal variation, mosquito immune-physiology, mosquito-malaria interactions and the development of vector control tools.

Population variability across geographical ranges: perspectives and challenges

Populations fluctuate over time and across geographical space, and understanding how different factors contribute to population variability is a central goal in population ecology. There is a particular interest in identifying trends of population variability within geographical ranges as population densities of species can fluctuate substantially across geographical space. A common assumption is that populations vary more near species geographical range edges because of unsuitable environments and higher vulnerability to environmental variability in these areas. However, empirical data rarely support this expectation, suggesting that population variability is not related to its position within species geographical ranges. We propose that performance curves, which describe the relationship between population growth rates and environmental conditions, can be used to disentangle geographical patterns of population variability. Performance curves are important for understanding population variability because populations fluctuate more in locations where they have lower growth rates owing to unsuitable environmental conditions. This is important for the assessment of these geographical patterns in population variability because geographical edges often do not reflect environmental edges. Considering species performance curves when evaluating geographical patterns of population variability would also allow researchers to detect populations that are more susceptible to future changes in environmental conditions.

Intraspecific variation of thermal tolerance along elevational gradients: the case of a widespread diving beetle (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae)

Species distributed across wide elevational gradients are likely to experience local thermal adaptation and exhibit high thermal plasticity, as these gradients are characterised by steep environmental changes over short geographic distances (i.e., strong selection differentials). The prevalence of adaptive intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance with elevation remains unclear, however, particularly in freshwater taxa. We explored variation in upper and lower thermal limits and acclimation capacity among Iberian populations of adults of the widespread water beetle Agabus bipustulatus (Dytiscidae) across a 2000 m elevational gradient, from lowland to alpine areas. Since mean and extreme temperatures decline with elevation, we predicted that populations at higher elevations will show lower heat tolerance and higher cold tolerance than lowland ones. We also explored whether acclimation capacity is positively related with climatic variability across elevations. We found significant variation in thermal limits between populations of A. bipustulatus, but no evidence of local adaptation to different thermal conditions across the altitudinal gradient, as relationships between thermal limits and elevation or climatic variables were largely nonsignificant. Furthermore, plasticities of both upper and lower thermal limits were consistently low in all populations. These results suggest thermal niche conservatism in this species, likely due to gene flow counteracting the effects of divergent selection, or adaptations in other traits that buffer exposure to climate extremes. The limited adaptive potential and plasticity of thermal tolerance observed in A. bipustulatus suggest that even generalist species, distributed across wide environmental gradients, may have limited resilience to global warming.

Ecological debts induced by heat extremes

Heat extremes have become the new norm in the Anthropocene. Their potential to trigger major ecological responses is widely acknowledged, but their unprecedented severity hinders our ability to predict the magnitude of such responses, both during and after extreme heat events. To address this challenge we propose a conceptual framework inspired by the core concepts of ecological stability and thermal biology to depict how responses of populations and communities accumulate at three response stages (exposure, resistance, and recovery). Biological mechanisms mitigating responses at a given stage incur associated costs that only become apparent at other response stages; these are known as 'ecological debts'. We outline several scenarios for how ecological responses associate with debts to better understand biodiversity changes caused by heat extremes.

Effects of High-Temperature Stress on Biological Characteristics of Coccophagus japonicus Compere

The parasitoid, Coccophagus japonicus Compere (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) is a dominant natural enemy of Parasaissetia nigra Nietner (Hemiptera: Coccidae), an important pest of rubber trees. Much of Chinese rubber is cultivated in hotter regions such as Yunnan and Hainan, exposing applied parasitoids to non-optimal temperatures. Therefore, C. japonicus must adapt to avoid temperature-related impacts on survival and population expansion. In this study, we monitored the survival rate, developmental duration, parasitism rate, and fecundity of C. japonicus during short-term exposures to 36 °C, 38 °C, and 40 °C for 2, 4, and 6 h, as well as continuous exposures to 32 °C and 34 °C for 3 days. The results show that short-term exposure to high-temperature stress leads to decreased survival rate of C. japonicus larvae and pupae, with survival rates declining as temperature and duration increase. High-temperature stress also delayed insect development, reduced mature egg production, shortened the body length of newly emerged females, and decreased female lifespans. Moreover, continuous high-temperature stress was found to significantly impact the development and reproduction of C. japonicus. Compared with the CK (27 °C), 3 d of continuous exposure to 34 °C prolonged developmental duration, shortened the body length and lifespan of newly emerged females, reduced survival rate and single female fecundity, and significantly decreased offspring numbers and parasitism rates. Temperatures of 36 °C, 38 °C, and 40 °C decreased the mortality time of adult females to 28.78, 16.04, and 7.91 h, respectively. Adverse temperatures also affected the insects' functional response, with 8 h of stress at 36 °C, 38 °C, and 40 °C causing the control efficiency of C. japonicus on P. nigra. This level of stress in the parasitoids was found to reduce the immediate attack rate and search effect, prolong processing time, and attenuate interference between small prey. Parasitoid efficiency was lowest following exposure to 40 °C. In this study, we determined the range of high temperatures that C. japonicus populations can tolerate under short- or long-term stress, providing guidance for future field applications.

The Effect of Temperature Variability on Biological Responses of Ectothermic Animals-A Meta-Analysis

Climate change is altering temperature means and variation, and both need to be considered in predictions underpinning conservation. However, there is no consensus in the literature regarding the effects of temperature fluctuations on biological functions. Fluctuations may affect biological responses because of inequalities from non-linear responses, endocrine regulation or exposure to damaging temperatures. Here we establish the current state of knowledge of how temperature fluctuations impact biological responses within individuals and populations compared to constant temperatures with the same mean. We conducted a meta-analysis of 143 studies on ectothermic animals (1492 effect sizes, 118 species). In this study, 89% of effect sizes were derived from diel cycles, but there were no significant differences between diel cycles and shorter (<8 h) or longer (>48 h) cycles in their effect on biological responses. We show that temperature fluctuations have little effect overall on trait mean and variance. Nonetheless, temperature fluctuations can be stressful: fluctuations increased 'gene expression' in aquatic animals, which was driven mainly by increased hsp70. Fluctuating temperatures also decreased longevity, and increased amplitudes had negative effects on population responses in aquatic organisms. We conclude that mean temperatures and extreme events such as heat waves are important to consider, but regular (particularly diel) temperature fluctuations are less so.

Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate

Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.

Heat stress and host-parasitoid interactions: lessons and opportunities in a changing climate

Ongoing climate change is increasing the frequency and magnitude of high-temperature events (HTEs), causing heat stress in parasitoids and their hosts. We argue that HTEs and heat stress should be viewed in terms of the intersecting life cycles of host and parasitoid. Recent studies illustrate how the biological consequences of a given HTE may vary dramatically depending on its timing within these lifecycles. The temperature sensitivity of host manipulation by parasitoids, and by viral endosymbionts of many parasitoids, can contribute to differing responses of hosts and parasitoids to HTEs. In some cases, these effects can result in reduced parasitoid success and increased host herbivory and may disrupt the ecological interactions between hosts and parasitoids. Because most studies to date involve endoparasitoids of aphid or lepidopteran hosts in agricultural systems, our understanding of heat responses of host-parasitoid interactions in natural systems is quite limited.

Anticipating change: The impact of simulated seasonal heterogeneity on heat tolerances along a latitudinal cline

An understanding of thermal limits and variation across geographic regions is central to predicting how any population may respond to global change. Latitudinal clines, in particular, have been used to demonstrate that populations can be locally adapted to their own thermal environment and, as a result, not all populations will be equally impacted by an increase in temperature. But how robust are these signals of thermal adaptation to the other ecological challenges that animals commonly face in the wild? Seasonal changes in population density, food availability, or photoperiod are common ecological challenges that could disrupt patterns of thermal tolerance along a cline if each population differentially used these signals to anticipate future temperatures and adjust their thermal tolerances accordingly. In this study, we aimed to test the robustness of a cline in thermal tolerance to simulated signals of seasonal heterogeneity. Experimental animals were derived from clones of the Australian water flea, Daphnia carinata, sampled from nine distinct populations along a latitudinal transect in Eastern Australia. We then factorially combined summer (18 h light, 6 h dark) and winter (6 h light, 18 h dark) photoperiods with high (5 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) and low (1 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) food availabilities, before performing static heat shock assays to measure thermal tolerance. We found that the thermal tolerances of the clonal populations were sensitive to both measures of seasonal change. In general, higher food availability led to an increase in thermal tolerances, with the magnitude of the increase varying by clone. In contrast, a switch in photoperiod led to rank-order changes in thermal tolerances, with heat resistance increasing for some clones, and decreasing for others. Heat resistance, however, still declined with increasing latitude, irrespective of the manipulation of seasonal signals, with clones from northern populations always showing greater thermal resistance, most likely driven by adaptation to winter thermal conditions. While photoperiod and food availability can clearly shape thermal tolerances for specific populations, they are unlikely to overwhelm overarching signals of thermal adaptation, and thus, observed clines in heat resistance will likely have remained robust to these forms of seasonal heterogeneity.

Endocrine flexibility can facilitate or constrain the ability to cope with global change

Global climate change has increased average environmental temperatures world-wide, simultaneously intensifying temperature variability and extremes. Growing numbers of studies have documented phenological, behavioural and morphological responses to climate change in wild populations. As systemic signals, hormones can contribute to orchestrating many of these phenotypic changes. Yet little is known about whether mechanisms like hormonal flexibility (reversible changes in hormone concentrations) facilitate or limit the ability of individuals, populations and species to cope with a changing climate. In this perspective, we discuss different mechanisms by which hormonal flexibility, primarily in glucocorticoids, could promote versus hinder evolutionary adaptation to changing temperature regimes. We focus on temperature because it is a key gradient influenced by climate change, it is easy to quantify, and its links to hormones are well established. We argue that reaction norm studies that connect individual responses to population-level and species-wide patterns will be critical for making progress in this field. We also develop a case study on urban heat islands, where several key questions regarding hormonal flexibility and adaptation to climate change can be addressed. Understanding the mechanisms that allow animals to cope when conditions become more challenging will help in predicting which populations are vulnerable to ongoing climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Endocrine responses to environmental variation: conceptual approaches and recent developments'.

Declining calcium concentration drives shifts toward smaller and less nutritious zooplankton in northern lakes

Zooplankton community composition of northern lakes is changing due to the interactive effects of climate change and recovery from acidification, yet limited data are available to assess these changes combined. Here, we built a database using archives of temperature, water chemistry and zooplankton data from 60 Scandinavian lakes that represent broad spatial and temporal gradients in key parameters: temperature, calcium (Ca), total phosphorus (TP), total organic carbon (TOC), and pH. Using machine learning techniques, we found that Ca was the most important determinant of the relative abundance of all zooplankton groups studied, while pH was second, and TOC third in importance. Further, we found that Ca is declining in almost all lakes, and we detected a critical Ca threshold in lake water of 1.3 mg L-1 , below which the relative abundance of zooplankton shifts toward dominance of Holopedium gibberum and small cladocerans at the expense of Daphnia and copepods. Our findings suggest that low Ca concentrations may shape zooplankton communities, and that current trajectories of Ca decline could promote widespread changes in pelagic food webs as zooplankton are important trophic links from phytoplankton to fish and different zooplankton species play different roles in this context.

Bees display limited acclimation capacity for heat tolerance

Bees are essential pollinators and understanding their ability to cope with extreme temperature changes is crucial for predicting their resilience to climate change, but studies are limited. We measured the response of the critical thermal maximum (CTMax) to short-term acclimation in foragers of six bee species from the Greek island of Lesvos, which differ in body size, nesting habit, and level of sociality. We calculated the acclimation response ratio as a metric to assess acclimation capacity and tested whether bees' acclimation capacity was influenced by body size and/or CTMax. We also assessed whether CTMax increases following acute heat exposure simulating a heat wave. Average estimate of CTMax varied among species and increased with body size but did not significantly shift in response to acclimation treatment except in the sweat bee Lasioglossum malachurum. Acclimation capacity averaged 9% among species and it was not significantly associated with body size or CTMax. Similarly, the average CTMax did not increase following acute heat exposure. These results indicate that bees might have limited capacity to enhance heat tolerance via acclimation or in response to prior heat exposure, rendering them physiologically sensitive to rapid temperature changes during extreme weather events. These findings reinforce the idea that insects, like other ectotherms, generally express weak plasticity in CTMax, underscoring the critical role of behavioral thermoregulation for avoidance of extreme temperatures. Conserving and restoring native vegetation can provide bees temporary thermal refuges during extreme weather events.

Thermal limits along tropical elevational gradients: Poison frog tadpoles show plasticity but maintain divergence across elevation

Temperature is arguably one of the most critical environmental factors impacting organisms at molecular, organismal, and ecological levels. Temperature variation across elevation may cause divergent selection in physiological critical thermal limits (CTMAX and CTMIN). Generally, high elevation populations are predicted to withstand lower environmental temperatures than low elevation populations. Organisms can also exhibit phenotypic plasticity when temperature varies, although theory and empirical evidence suggest that tropical ectotherms have relatively limited ability to acclimate. To study the effect of temperature variation along elevational transects on thermal limits, we measured CTMAX and CTMIN of 934 tadpoles of a poison frog species, Epipedobates anthonyi, along two elevational gradients (200-1700 m asl) in southwestern Ecuador to investigate their thermal tolerance across elevation. We also tested if tadpoles could plastically shift their critical thermal limits in response to exposure to different temperatures representing the range of temperatures they experience in nature (20 °C, 24 °C, and 28 °C). Overall, we found that CTMAX did not change across elevation. In contrast, CTMIN was lower at higher elevations, suggesting that elevational variation in temperature influences this thermal trait. Moreover, all populations shifted their CTMAX and CTMIN according to treatment temperatures, demonstrating an acclimation response. Overall, trends in CTMIN among high, mid, and low elevation populations were maintained despite plastic responses to treatment temperature. These results demonstrate that, for tadpoles of E. anthonyi across tropical elevational gradients, temperature acts as a selective force for CTMIN, even when populations show acclimation abilities in both, CTMAX and CTMIN. Our findings advance our understanding on how environmental variation affects organisms' evolutionary trajectories and their abilities to persist in a changing climate in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

How development and survival combine to determine the thermal sensitivity of insects

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) depict variation in vital rates in response to temperature and have been an important tool to understand ecological and evolutionary constraints on the thermal sensitivity of ectotherms. TPCs allow for the calculation of indicators of thermal tolerance, such as minimum, optimum, and maximum temperatures that allow for a given metabolic function. However, these indicators are computed using only responses from surviving individuals, which can lead to underestimation of deleterious effects of thermal stress, particularly at high temperatures. Here, we advocate for an integrative framework for assessing thermal sensitivity, which combines both vital rates and survival probabilities, and focuses on the temperature interval that allows for population persistence. Using a collated data set of Lepidopteran development rate and survival measured on the same individuals, we show that development rate is generally limiting at low temperatures, while survival is limiting at high temperatures. We also uncover differences between life stages and across latitudes, with extended survival at lower temperatures in temperate regions. Our combined performance metric demonstrates similar thermal breadth in temperate and tropical individuals, an effect that only emerges from integration of both development and survival trends. We discuss the benefits of using this framework in future predictive and management contexts.

Preliminary characterization of biomolecular processes related to plasticity in Acyrthosiphonpisum

Global warming strongly impacts many organisms' development, distribution and population structure. This problem has attracted the attention of many scientists to understand and study its actual effects, especially on insects influenced by environmental temperatures. Aphids are a model for studies of the genetics and physiology of stress. Aphids are characterized by parthenogenetic reproduction, which limits the effects of recombination on evolutionary processes, and have shown resistance to various biotic and abiotic stresses. This study was based on the hypothesis that aphids have optimized, over time, genetic mechanisms capable to give them plasticity through genome modifications mediated by transposition. To understand and evaluate the effects of heat stress, the expression levels of transposases and methylases were analyzed in mothers and daughters. Our results show that after four days from the thermal shock, methylation decreases in both mothers and daughters, while transposition significantly increases in daughters, thus generating gene variability, essential for adaptation.

Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves

As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait-based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non-threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave-vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non-vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non-vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave-vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.

Patterns of Genetic And Epigenetic Diversity Across A Range Expansion in The White-Footed Mouse (Peromyscus Leucopus)

Populations at the leading front of a range expansion must rapidly adapt to novel conditions. Increased epigenetic diversity has been hypothesized to facilitate adaptation and population persistence via non-genetic phenotypic variation, especially if there is reduced genetic diversity when populations expand (i.e., epigenetic diversity compensates for low genetic diversity). In this study, we use the spatial distribution of genetic and epigenetic diversity to test this hypothesis in populations of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) sampled across a purported recent range expansion gradient. We found mixed support for the epigenetic compensation hypothesis and a lack of support for expectations for expansion populations of mice at the range edge, which likely reflects a complex history of expansion in white-footed mice in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Specifically, epigenetic diversity was not increased in the population at the purported edge of the range expansion in comparison to the other expansion populations. However, input from an additional ancestral source populations may have increased genetic diversity at this range edge population, counteracting the expected genetic consequences of expansion, as well as reducing the benefit of increased epigenetic diversity at the range edge. Future work will expand the focal populations to include expansion areas with a single founding lineage to test for the robustness of a general trend that supports the hypothesized compensation of reduced genetic diversity by epigenetic variation observed in the expansion population that was founded from a single historical source.

Closing the gap between science and management of cold-water refuges in rivers and streams

Human activities and climate change threaten coldwater organisms in freshwater ecosystems by causing rivers and streams to warm, increasing the intensity and frequency of warm temperature events, and reducing thermal heterogeneity. Cold-water refuges are discrete patches of relatively cool water that are used by coldwater organisms for thermal relief and short-term survival. Globally, cohesive management approaches are needed that consider interlinked physical, biological, and social factors of cold-water refuges. We review current understanding of cold-water refuges, identify gaps between science and management, and evaluate policies aimed at protecting thermally sensitive species. Existing policies include designating cold-water habitats, restricting fishing during warm periods, and implementing threshold temperature standards or guidelines. However, these policies are rare and uncoordinated across spatial scales and often do not consider input from Indigenous peoples. We propose that cold-water refuges be managed as distinct operational landscape units, which provide a social and ecological context that is relevant at the watershed scale. These operational landscape units provide the foundation for an integrated framework that links science and management by (1) mapping and characterizing cold-water refuges to prioritize management and conservation actions, (2) leveraging existing and new policies, (3) improving coordination across jurisdictions, and (4) implementing adaptive management practices across scales. Our findings show that while there are many opportunities for scientific advancement, the current state of the sciences is sufficient to inform policy and management. Our proposed framework provides a path forward for managing and protecting cold-water refuges using existing and new policies to protect coldwater organisms in the face of global change.

Holopelagic Sargassum aggregations provide warmer microhabitats for associated fauna

Drifting aggregations of Sargassum algae provide critical habitat for endemic, endangered, and commercially important species. They may also provide favorable microclimates for associated fauna. To quantify thermal characteristics of holopelagic Sargassum aggregations, we evaluated thermal profiles of 50 aggregations in situ in the Sargasso Sea. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the center of aggregations was significantly higher than in nearby open water, and SST differential was independent of aggregation volume, area, and thickness. SST differential between aggregation edge and open water was smaller than those between aggregation center and aggregation edge and between aggregation center and open water. Water temperature was significantly higher inside and below aggregations compared to open water but did not vary inside aggregations with depth. Holopelagic Sargassum aggregations provide warmer microhabitats for associated fauna, which may benefit marine ectotherms, though temperature differentials were narrow (up to 0.7 °C) over the range of aggregation sizes we encountered (area 0.01-15 m2). We propose a hypothetical curve describing variation in SST differential with Sargassum aggregation size as a prediction for future studies to evaluate across temporal and geographic ranges. Our study provides a foundation for investigating the importance of thermal microhabitats in holopelagic Sargassum ecosystems.

Linking critical thermal maximum to mortality from thermal stress in a cold-water frog

Estimates of organismal thermal tolerance are frequently used to assess physiological risk from warming, yet the assumption that these estimates are predictive of mortality has been called into question. We tested this assumption in the cold-water-specialist frog, Ascaphus montanus. For seven populations, we used dynamic experimental assays to measure tadpole critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and measured mortality from chronic thermal stress for 3 days at different temperatures. We tested the relationship between previously estimated population CTmax and observed mortality, as well as the strength of CTmax as a predictor of mortality compared to local stream temperatures capturing varying timescales. Populations with higher CTmax experienced significantly less mortality in the warmest temperature treatment (25°C). We also found that population CTmax outperformed stream temperature metrics as the top predictor of observed mortality. These results demonstrate a clear link between CTmax and mortality from thermal stress, contributing evidence that CTmax is a relevant metric for physiological vulnerability assessments.

Still standing: The heat protection delivered by a facultative symbiont to its aphid host is resilient to repeated thermal stress

Insects have evolved diverse strategies to resist extreme high temperatures (EHT). The adaptive value of such strategies has to be evaluated when organisms experience multiple EHT events during their lifetime, as predicted in a changing climate. This is particularly the case for associations with facultative microbial partners involved in insect heat tolerance, the resilience of which to repeated heat stress has never been studied. We compared two artificial lines of the pea aphid (Acyrthosiphon pisum) differing by the absence or presence of the heat-protective facultative bacterium Serratia symbiotica. We exposed insect nymphs to a varying number of EHT events (between 0 and 3), and recorded fitness parameters. Except survival traits, fitness estimates were affected by the interaction between aphid infection status (absence/presence of S. symbiotica) and thermal treatment (number of heat shocks applied). Costs of bacterial infection were detected in the absence of thermal stress: symbiont-hosting aphids incurred longer development, decreased fecundity and body size. However, symbiotic infection turned neutral, and even beneficial for some traits (development and body size), as the number of heat shocks increased, and compared to the aposymbiotic strain. Conversely, symbiotic infection mediated aphid response to heat shock(s): fitness decreased only in the uninfected group. These findings suggest that (i) the facultative symbiont may alternatively act as a pathogen, commensal or mutualist depending on thermal environment, and (ii) the heat protection it delivered to its host persists under frequent EHT. We discuss eco-evolutionary implications and the role of potentially confounding factors (stage-specific effects, genetic polymorphism displayed by the obligate symbiont).

Assessing the role of family level variation and heat shock gene expression in the thermal stress response of the mosquito Aedes aegypti

The geographical range of the mosquito vector for many human disease-causing viruses, Aedes aegypti, is expanding, in part owing to changing climate. The capacity of this species to adapt to thermal stress will affect its future distributions. It is unclear how much heritable genetic variation may affect the upper thermal limits of mosquito populations over the long term. Nor are the genetic pathways that confer thermal tolerance fully understood. In the short term, cells induce a plastic, protective response known as 'heat shock'. Using a physiological 'knockdown' assay, we investigated mosquito thermal tolerance to characterize the genetic architecture of the trait. While families representing the extreme ends of the distribution for knockdown time differed from one another, the trait exhibited low but non-zero broad-sense heritability. We then explored whether families representing thermal performance extremes differed in their heat shock response by measuring gene expression of heat shock protein-encoding genes Hsp26, Hsp83 and Hsp70. Contrary to prediction, the families with higher thermal tolerance demonstrated less Hsp expression. This pattern may indicate that other mechanisms of heat tolerance, rather than heat shock, may underpin the stress response, and the costly production of HSPs may instead signal poor adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Infection burdens and virulence under heat stress: ecological and evolutionary considerations

As a result of global change, hosts and parasites (including pathogens) are experiencing shifts in their thermal environment. Despite the importance of heat stress tolerance for host population persistence, infection by parasites can impair a host's ability to cope with heat. Host-parasite eco-evolutionary dynamics will be affected if infection reduces host performance during heating. Theory predicts that within-host parasite burden (replication rate or number of infecting parasites per host), a key component of parasite fitness, should correlate positively with virulence-the harm caused to hosts during infection. Surprisingly, however, the relationship between within-host parasite burden and virulence during heating is often weak. Here, we describe the current evidence for the link between within-host parasite burden and host heat stress tolerance. We consider the biology of host-parasite systems that may explain the weak or absent link between these two important host and parasite traits during hot conditions. The processes that mediate the relationship between parasite burden and host fitness will be fundamental in ecological and evolutionary responses of host and parasites in a warming world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Climate adaptation and vulnerability of foundation species in a global change hotspot

Climate change is altering species ranges, and relative abundances within ranges, as populations become differentially adapted and vulnerable to the climates they face. Understanding present species ranges, whether species harbour and exchange adaptive variants, and how variants are distributed across landscapes undergoing rapid change, is therefore crucial to predicting responses to future climates and informing conservation strategies. Such insights are nonetheless lacking for most species of conservation concern. We assess genomic patterns of neutral variation, climate adaptation and climate vulnerability (offsets in predicted distributions of putatively adaptive variants across present and future landscapes) for sister foundation species, the marine tubeworms Galeolaria caespitosa and Galeolaria gemineoa, in a sentinel region for climate change impacts. We find that species are genetically isolated despite uncovering sympatry in their ranges, show parallel and nonparallel signals of thermal adaptation on spatial scales smaller than gene flow across their ranges, and are predicted to face different risks of maladaptation under future temperatures across their ranges. Our findings have implications for understanding local adaptation in the face of gene flow, and generate spatially explicit predictions for climatic disruption of adaptation and species distributions in coastal ecosystems that could guide experimental validation and conservation planning.

Indigenous and introduced Collembola differ in desiccation resistance but not its plasticity in response to temperature

Biological invasions have significant ecological and economic impacts. Much attention is therefore focussed on predicting establishment and invasion success. Trait-based approaches are showing much promise, but are mostly restricted to investigations of plants. Although the application of these approaches to animals is growing rapidly, it is rare for arthropods and restricted mostly to investigations of thermal tolerance. Here we study the extent to which desiccation tolerance and its phenotypic plasticity differ between introduced (nine species) and indigenous (seven species) Collembola, specifically testing predictions of the 'ideal weed' and 'phenotypic plasticity' hypotheses of invasion biology. We do so on the F2 generation of adults in a full factorial design across two temperatures, to elicit desiccation responses, for the phenotypic plasticity trials. We also determine whether basal desiccation resistance responds to thermal laboratory natural selection. We first show experimentally that acclimation to different temperatures elicits changes to cuticular structure and function that are typically associated with water balance, justifying our experimental approach. Our main findings reveal that basal desiccation resistance differs, on average, between the indigenous and introduced species, but that this difference is weaker at higher temperatures, and is driven by particular taxa, as revealed by phylogenetic generalised least squares approaches. By contrast, the extent or form of phenotypic plasticity does not differ between the two groups, with a 'hotter is better' response being most common. Beneficial acclimation is characteristic of only a single species. Laboratory natural selection had little influence on desiccation resistance over 8-12 generations, suggesting that environmental filtering rather than adaptation to new environments may be an important factor influencing Collembola invasions.

Fitness homeostasis across an experimental water gradient predicts species' geographic range and climatic breadth

Species range sizes and realized niche breadths vary tremendously. Understanding the source of this variation has been a long-term aim in evolutionary ecology and is a major tool in efforts to ameliorate the impacts of changing climates on species distributions. Species ranges that span a large climatic envelope can be achieved by a collection of specialized genotypes locally adapted to a small range of conditions, by genotypes with stable fitness across variable environments, or a combination of these factors. We asked whether fitness expressed along a key niche axis, water availability, could explain a species' realized niche breadth--its geographic range and climate breadth-- in 11 species from a clade of jewelflowers whose range sizes vary by two orders of magnitude. Specifically, we explored whether the range size of a species was related to the ability of genotypes (maternal families) to maintain fitness across a range of experimental water availabilities based on 30-year historical field precipitation regimes. We operationally characterized fitness homeostasis through the coefficient of variation (CV) in fitness of a genotype (family) across the experimental water gradient. We found that species with genotypes that had high fitness homeostasis -- low variation in fitness over our treatments --had larger climatic niche breadth and geographic range in their field distributions. The result was robust to alternate measures of fitness homeostasis. Our results show that the fitness homeostasis of genotypes can be a major factor contributing to niche breadth and range size in this clade. Fitness homeostasis can buffer species from loss of genetic diversity and under changing climates, provides time for adaptation to future conditions.

Unsupervised machine learning and geometric morphometrics as tools for the identification of inter and intraspecific variations in the Anopheles Maculipennis complex

Geometric morphometric analysis was combined with two different unsupervised machine learning algorithms, UMAP and HDBSCAN, to visualize morphological differences in wing shape among and within four Anopheles sibling species (An. atroparvus, An. melanoon, An. maculipennis s.s. and An. daciae sp. inq.) of the Maculipennis complex in Northern Italy. Specifically, we evaluated: 1) wing shape variation among and within species; 2) the consistencies between groups of An. maculipennis s.s. and An. daciae sp. inq. identified based on COI sequences and wing shape variability; and 3) the spatial and temporal distribution of different morphotypes. UMAP detected at least 13 main patterns of variation in wing shape among the four analyzed species and mapped intraspecific morphological variations. The relationship between the most abundant COI haplotypes of An. daciae sp. inq. and shape ordination/variation was not significant. However, morphological variation within haplotypes was reported. HDBSCAN also recognized different clusters of morphotypes within An. daciae sp. inq. (12) and An. maculipennis s.s. (4). All morphotypes shared a similar pattern of variation in the subcostal vein, in the anal vein and in the radio-medial cross-vein of the wing. On the contrary, the marginal part of the wings remained unchanged in all clusters of both species. Any spatial-temporal significant difference was observed in the frequency of the identified morphotypes.  Our study demonstrated that machine learning algorithms are a useful tool combined with geometric morphometrics and suggest to deepen the analysis of inter and intra specific shape variability to evaluate evolutionary constrains related to wing functionality.

Effects of periodically repeated high-temperature exposure on the immediate and subsequent fitness of different developmental stages of Propylaea japonica

BACKGROUND

Repeated extreme high temperature occurs frequently in summer. Propylaea japonica is a predominant predator in South-East Asia and has been considered as a successful natural enemy to control aphids. However, how repeated extreme high temperature affects the fitness of P. japonica remains unclear. This study evaluated the immediate and subsequent fitness of P. japonica when egg, larva, pupa, and adult were exposed to repeated high temperatures (39, 41, or 43 °C for 3 h exposure duration per day) during several days.

RESULTS

The effect of repeated high temperatures on P. japonica fitness was stage-specific: the egg stage was the most sensitive, the larval and pupal stages were moderately resistant and the adult stage was the most resistant to heat. Repeated high temperatures extended the immature developmental time and decreased the sex ratio of eggs treated with these temperatures, compared to control eggs. A temperature of 39 °C had no significant effect on the pre-oviposition period, oviposition period, fecundity (except stress pupa), or longevity compared with the control, but negative carry-over effects above 39 °C on subsequent stages were found.

CONCLUSION

Repeated high temperature for consecutive days not only had a significant effect on the immediate survival and developmental time, but also had deleterious effects on the subsequent development and performance of P. japonica. The present study provides valuable information for understanding and utilizing P. japonica to control aphids in challenging environments. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Environment-driven shifts in inter-individual variation and phenotypic integration within subnetworks of the mussel transcriptome and proteome

The environment can alter the magnitude of phenotypic variation among individuals, potentially influencing evolutionary trajectories. However, environmental influences on variation are complex and remain understudied. Populations in heterogeneous environments might exhibit more variation, the amount of variation could differ between benign and stressful conditions, and/or variation might manifest in different ways among stages of the gene‐to‐protein expression cascade or among physiological functions. Here, we explore these three issues by quantifying patterns of inter‐individual variation in both transcript and protein expression levels among California mussels, Mytilus californianus Conrad. Mussels were exposed to five ecologically relevant treatments that varied in the mean and interindividual heterogeneity of body temperature. To target a diverse set of physiological functions, we assessed variation within 19 expression subnetworks, including canonical stress‐response pathways and empirically derived coexpression clusters that represent a diffuse set of cellular processes. Variation in expression was particularly pronounced in the treatments with high mean and heterogeneous body temperatures. However, with few exceptions, environment‐dependent shifts of variation in the transcriptome were not reflected in the proteome. A metric of phenotypic integration provided evidence for a greater degree of constraint on relative expression levels (i.e., stronger correlation) within expression subnetworks in benign, homogeneous environments. Our results suggest that environments that are more stressful on average – and which also tend to be more heterogeneous – can relax these expression constraints and reduce phenotypic integration within biochemical subnetworks. Context‐dependent “unmasking” of functional variation may contribute to interindividual differences in physiological phenotype and performance in stressful environments.

Why are "suboptimal" temperatures preferred in a tropical intertidal ectotherm?

In thermally extreme environments it is challenging for organisms to maximize performance due to risks associated with stochastic variation in temperature and, subsequently, over evolutionary time minimizing the exposure to risk can serve as one of the mechanisms that result in organisms preferring suboptimal temperatures. We tested this hypothesis in a slow-moving intertidal snail on tropical rocky shores, where temperature variability increases with time from 30 min to 20 h when recorded at 30 min intervals (due to short-term environmental autocorrelation where temperatures closer in time are more similar as compared to temperatures over a long period of time). Failure to accommodate temporal variation in thermal stress by selecting cool habitats can result in mortality. Thermal performance curves for different traits (heart rate and locomotion) were measured and compared to the snail's thermal preferences in both the field and laboratory. Predicted performances of the snails were simulated based on thermal performance curves for different traits over multiple time scales and simulated carryover effects. A strong mismatch was found between physiological and behavioural thermal maxima of the snails (physiological thermal maximum being higher by ~ 7 °C), but the snails avoided these maxima and sought temperatures 7 - 14 °C cooler. Such a risk-averse strategy can be explained by their predicted performances where the snails should make decisions about preferred temperatures based on time periods ≥ 5 h to avoid underestimating the temporal variation in body temperature. In extreme and stochastic environments, where the temporal variation in environmental conditions can lead to substantial divergence between instantaneous and time-averaged thermal performances, "cooler is better" and "suboptimal" body temperatures are preferred as they provide sufficient buffer to reduce mortality risk from heat stress.

Into the wild-a field study on the evolutionary and ecological importance of thermal plasticity in ectotherms across temperate and tropical regions

Understanding how environmental factors affect the thermal tolerance of species is crucial for predicting the impact of thermal stress on species abundance and distribution. To date, species' responses to thermal stress are typically assessed on laboratory-reared individuals and using coarse, low-resolution, climate data that may not reflect microhabitat dynamics at a relevant scale. Here, we examine the daily temporal variation in heat tolerance in a range of species in their natural environments across temperate and tropical Australia. Individuals were collected in their habitats throughout the day and tested for heat tolerance immediately thereafter, while local microclimates were recorded at the collection sites. We found high levels of plasticity in heat tolerance across all the tested species. Both short- and long-term variability of temperature and humidity affected plastic adjustments of heat tolerance within and across days, but with species differences. Our results reveal that plastic changes in heat tolerance occur rapidly at a daily scale and that environmental factors on a relatively short timescale are important drivers of the observed variation in thermal tolerance. Ignoring such fine-scale physiological processes in distribution models might obscure conclusions about species' range shifts with global climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part 1)'.

Developmental timing of extreme temperature events (heat waves) disrupts host-parasitoid interactions

When thermal tolerances differ between interacting species, extreme temperature events (heat waves) will alter the ecological outcomes. The parasitoid wasp Cotesia congregata suffers high mortality when reared throughout development at temperatures that are nonstressful for its host, Manduca sexta. However, the effects of short-term heat stress during parasitoid development are unknown in this host-parasitoid system.Here, we investigate how duration of exposure, daily maximum temperature, and the developmental timing of heat waves impact the performance of C. congregata and its host¸ M. sexta. We find that the developmental timing of short-term heat waves strongly determines parasitoid and host outcomes.Heat waves during parasitoid embryonic development resulted in complete wasp mortality and the production of giant, long-lived hosts. Heat waves during the 1st-instar had little effect on wasp success, whereas heat waves during the parasitoid's nutritionally and hormonally critical 2nd instar greatly reduced wasp emergence and eclosion. The temperature and duration of heat waves experienced early in development determined what proportion of hosts had complete parasitoid mortality and abnormal phenotypes.Our results suggest that the timing of extreme temperature events will be crucial to determining the ecological impacts on this host-parasitoid system. Discrepancies in thermal tolerance between interacting species and across development will have important ramifications on ecosystem responses to climate change.

Rates of warming impact oxidative stress in zebrafish (Danio rerio)

Potentially negative effects of thermal variation on physiological functions may be modulated by compensatory responses, but their efficacy depends on the timescale of phenotypic adjustment relative to the rate of temperature change. Increasing temperatures in particular can affect mitochondrial bioenergetics and rates of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. Our aim was to test whether different rates of temperature increase impact mitochondrial bioenergetics and modulate oxidative stress. We exposed zebrafish (Danio rerio) to warming from 20 to 28°C over 3, 6, 24, or 48 h, and compared these to a control group that was kept at constant 20°C. Fish exposed to the fastest (3 h) and slowest (48 h) rates of warming had significantly higher rates of H2O2 production relative to the control treatment, and the proportion of O2 converted to H2O2 (H2O2/O2 ratio) was significantly greater in these groups. However, ROS production was not paralleled by differences in mitochondrial substrate oxidation rates, leak respiration rates, or coupling (respiratory control ratios). Increased rates of ROS production did not lead to damage of proteins or membranes, which may be explained by a moderate increase in catalase activity at the fastest, but not the slowest rate of warming. The increase in ROS production at the slowest rate of heating indicates that even seemingly benign environments may be stressful. Understanding how animals respond to different rates of temperature change is important, because the rate determines the time period for phenotypic adjustments and it also alters the environmental thermal signal that triggers compensatory pathways.

Potential distribution of invasive crop pests under climate change: incorporating mitigation responses of insects into prediction models

Climate change facilitates biological invasions globally. Predicting potential distribution shifts of invasive crop pests under climate change is essential for global food security in the context of ongoing world population increase. However, existing predictions often omit the capacity of crop pests to mitigate the impacts of climate change by using microclimates, as well as through thermoregulation, life history variation and evolutionary responses. Microclimates provide refugia buffering climate extremes. Thermoregulation and life history variation can reduce the effects of diurnal and seasonal temperature variability. Evolutionary responses allow insects to adapt to long-term climate change. Neglecting these ecological processes may lead to overestimations in the negative impacts of climate change on invasive pests whereas in turn cause underestimations in their range expansions. To improve model predictions, we need to incorporate the fine-scale microclimates experienced by invasive crop pests and the mitigation responses of insects to climate change into species distribution models.

Population Parameters and Growth of Riptortus pedestris (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Alydidae) under Fluctuating Temperature

Simple Summary

The bean bug, Riptortus pedestris, is a polyphagous species that is an important pest of soybean fields in Asian countries. In this study, we examined the effects of constant and fluctuating temperatures on the development and reproduction of R. pedestris. The effects of thermal conditions were assessed by constructing age-stage, two-sex life tables from a constant temperature of 24 °C and simulated fluctuating temperatures of 24 ± 4 °C, 24 ± 6 °C, and 24 ± 8 °C. At a constant temperature, a number of R. pedestris life table parameters differed from those under fluctuating temperatures. Although similar pre-adult development periods were recorded under constant and fluctuating temperatures, the periods of female longevity and oviposition periods under fluctuating temperatures were significantly longer than those at a constant temperature. Given that temperature is an important abiotic factor for forecasting the population dynamics of arthropods in nature, determining the effects of fluctuating temperatures will make a valuable contribution to predicting R. pedestris population growth.

Abstract

In this study, we determined the influence of fluctuating temperatures on the development and fecundity of the bean bug Riptortus pedestris (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Alydidae) by collecting life table data for individuals exposed at a constant temperature (24 °C) and three fluctuating temperatures (24 ± 4 °C, 24 ± 6 °C, and 24 ± 8 °C). The raw life history data were analyzed using an age-stage, two-sex life table to take into account the viable development rate among individuals. Based on these analyses, the population projections enabled us to determine the stage structure and variability of population growth under different temperature treatments. Our results revealed shorter periods of immature development and a higher pre-adult survival rate at 24 ± 6 °C than under the other assessed temperature conditions. Furthermore, significant reductions in female longevity were recorded at 24 °C, whereas the fecundity, net reproductive rate, and intrinsic and finite rates of increase were highest at 24 ± 6 °C. These findings reveal that fluctuating temperatures have a positive influence on the life history traits of R. pedestris and indicate that observations made under constant temperatures may not explain sufficiently enough the temperature dependent biological performances of pests in the field.

Elevational divergence in pigmentation plasticity is associated with selection and pigment biochemistry

Phenotypic plasticity is predicted to evolve in environmentally variable habitats, or those experiencing a high frequency of strong selection. However, the evolution of plasticity may be constrained by costs or physiological constraints. In flowers, UV-absorbing pigmentation ameliorates UV damage to pollen, and is linked with elevated UV exposure. Whether plasticity contributes to this pattern remains unclear. Petals of Argentina anserina have larger UV-absorbing petal areas at high elevations where they experience higher and more variable UV exposure compared to low elevations. We measured UV-induced pigmentation plasticity in high- and low-elevation populations (hereafter, 'high, 'low'), and selection on pigmentation via male fitness. We dissected UV pigment biochemistry using metabolomics to explore biochemical mechanisms underlying plasticity. High displayed positive UV-induced pigmentation plasticity but low lacked plasticity. Selection favored elevated pigmentation under UV in high, supporting adaptive plasticity. In high, UV-absorption was conferred by flavonoids produced in one flavonoid pathway branch. However, in low, UV-absorption was associated with many compounds spanning many branches. Elevated plasticity was thus associated with reduced pigment diversity. The results are consistent with adaptive floral pigmentation plasticity in more extreme and variable environments. We discuss how biochemical underpinnings of pigmentation may permit or constrain the evolution of pigmentation plasticity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Ecological Leverage Points: Species Interactions Amplify the Physiological Effects of Global Environmental Change in the Ocean

Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by global environmental changes, including warming temperatures, deoxygenation, and ocean acidification. Marine scientists recognize intuitively that these environmental changes are translated into community changes via organismal physiology. However, physiology remains a black box in many ecological studies, and coexisting species in a community are often assumed to respond similarly to environmental stressors. Here, we emphasize how greater attention to physiology can improve our ability to predict the emergent effects of ocean change. In particular, understanding shifts in the intensity and outcome of species interactions such as competition and predation requires a sharpened focus on physiological variation among community members and the energetic demands and trophic mismatches generated by environmental changes. Our review also highlights how key species interactions that are sensitive to environmental change can operate as ecological leverage points through which small changes in abiotic conditions are amplified into large changes in marine ecosystems.

Half a century of thermal tolerance studies in springtails (Collembola): A review of metrics, spatial and temporal trends

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Metrics used in thermal tolerance studies in Collembola have diversified over time

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Cold tolerance has been assessed more often than heat tolerance

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Fewer data exist for tropical regions, especially for euedaphic and epedaphic organisms

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Thermal tolerances in Neanuridae are not as well-studied as in the other families

Global changes in soil surface temperatures are altering the abundances and distribution ranges of invertebrate species worldwide, including effects on soil microarthropods such as springtails (Collembola), which are vital for maintaining soil health and providing ecosystem services. Studies of thermal tolerance limits in soil invertebrates have the potential to provide information on demographic responses to climate change and guide assessments of possible impacts on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Here, we review the state of knowledge of thermal tolerance limits in Collembola. Thermal tolerance metrics have diversified over time, which should be taken into account when conducting large-scale comparative studies. A temporal trend shows that the estimation of ‘Critical Thermal Limits’ (CTL) is becoming more common than investigations of ‘Supercooling Point’ (SCP), despite the latter being the most widely used metric. Indeed, most studies (66%) in Collembola have focused on cold tolerance; fewer have assessed heat tolerance. The majority of thermal tolerance data are from temperate and polar regions, with fewer assessments from tropical and subtropical latitudes. While the hemiedaphic life form represents the majority of records at low latitudes, euedaphic and epedaphic groups remain largely unsampled in these regions compared to the situation in temperate and high latitude regions, where sampling records show a more balanced distribution among the different life forms. Most CTL data are obtained during the warmest period of the year, whereas SCP and ‘Lethal Temperature’ (LT) show more variation in terms of the season when the data were collected. We conclude that more attention should be given to understudied zoogeographical regions across the tropics, as well as certain less-studied clades such as the family Neanuridae, to identify the role of thermal tolerance limits in the redistribution of species under changing climates.

Co-option of stress mechanisms in the origin of evolutionary novelties

It is widely accepted that stressful conditions can facilitate evolutionary change. The mechanisms elucidated thus far accomplish this with a generic increase in heritable variation that facilitates more rapid adaptive evolution, often via plastic modifications of existing characters. Through scrutiny of different meanings of stress in biological research, and an explicit recognition that stressors must be characterized relative to their effect on capacities for maintaining functional integrity, we distinguish between: (1) previously identified stress‐responsive mechanisms that facilitate evolution by maintaining an adaptive fit with the environment, and (2) the co‐option of stress‐responsive mechanisms that are specific to stressors leading to the origin of novelties via compensation. Unlike standard accounts of gene co‐option that identify component sources of evolutionary change, our model documents the cost‐benefit trade‐offs and thereby explains how one mechanism—an immediate response to acute stress—is transformed evolutionarily into another—routine protection from recurring stressors. We illustrate our argument with examples from cell type origination as well as processes and structures at higher levels of organization. These examples suggest a general principle of evolutionary origination based on the capacity to switch between regulatory states related to reproduction and proliferation versus survival and differentiation.

Why Are Species’ Traits Weak Predictors of Range Shifts?

We examine the evidence linking species’ traits to contemporary range shifts and find they are poor predictors of range shifts that have occurred over decades to a century. We then discuss reasons for the poor performance of traits for describing interspecific variation in range shifts from two perspectives: ( a) factors associated with species’ traits that degrade range-shift signals stemming from the measures used for species’ traits, traits that are typically not analyzed, and the influence of phylogeny on range-shift potential and ( b) issues in quantifying range shifts and relating them to species’ traits due to imperfect detection of species, differences in the responses of altitudinal and latitudinal ranges, and emphasis on testing linear relationships between traits and range shifts instead of nonlinear responses. Improving trait-based approaches requires a recognition that traits within individuals interact in unexpected ways and that different combinations of traits may be functionally equivalent.

Genetic variation for upper thermal tolerance diminishes within and between populations with increasing acclimation temperature in Atlantic salmon

Populations may counteract lasting temperature changes or recurrent extremes through plasticity or adaptation. However, it remains underexplored how outbreeding, either naturally, unintentionally, or facilitated, may modify a local response potential and whether genotype-by-environment interactions or between-trait correlations can restrict this potential. We quantified population differences and outbreeding effects, within-population genetic variation, and plasticity of these, for thermal performance proxy traits using 32 pedigreed wild, domesticated, and wild-domesticated Atlantic salmon families reared under common-garden conditions. Following exposure to ambient cold (11.6 °C) or ~4° and ~8° warmer summer temperatures, populations differed notably for body length and critical thermal maximum (CT_max) and for thermal plasticity of length, condition, and CT_max, but not for haematocrit. Line-cross analysis suggested mostly additive and some dominant outbreeding effects on means and solely additive outbreeding effects on plasticity. Heritability was detected for all traits. However, with increasing acclimation temperature, differences in CT_max between populations and CT_max heritability diminished, and CT_max breeding values re-ranked. Furthermore, CT_max and body size were negatively correlated at the genetic and phenotypic levels, and there was indirect evidence for a positive correlation between growth potential and thermal performance breadth for growth. Thus, population differences (including those between wild and domesticated populations) in thermal performance and plasticity may present a genetic resource in addition to the within-population genetic variance to facilitate, or impede, thermal adaptation. However, unfavourable genotype-by-environment interactions and negative between-trait correlations may generally hamper joint evolution in response to an increase in average temperature and temporary extremes.

Plasticity of Performance Curves in Ectotherms: Individual Variation Modulates Population Responses to Environmental Change

Many ectothermic animals can respond to changes in their environment by altering the sensitivities of physiological rates, given sufficient time to do so. In other words, thermal acclimation and developmental plasticity can shift thermal performance curves so that performance may be completely or partially buffered against the effects of environmental temperature changes. Plastic responses can thereby increase the resilience to temperature change. However, there may be pronounced differences between individuals in their capacity for plasticity, and these differences are not necessarily reflected in population means. In a bet-hedging strategy, only a subsection of the population may persist under environmental conditions that favour either plasticity or fixed phenotypes. Thus, experimental approaches that measure means across individuals can not necessarily predict population responses to temperature change. Here, we collated published data of 608 mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) each acclimated twice, to a cool and a warm temperature in random order, to model how diversity in individual capacity for plasticity can affect populations under different temperature regimes. The persistence of both plastic and fixed phenotypes indicates that on average, neither phenotype is selectively more advantageous. Fish with low acclimation capacity had greater maximal swimming performance in warm conditions, but their performance decreased to a greater extent with decreasing temperature in variable environments. In contrast, the performance of fish with high acclimation capacity decreased to a lesser extent with a decrease in temperature. Hence, even though fish with low acclimation capacity had greater maximal performance, high acclimation capacity may be advantageous when ecologically relevant behaviour requires submaximal locomotor performance. Trade-offs, developmental effects and the advantages of plastic phenotypes together are likely to explain the observed population variation.

Towards a statistically robust determination of minimum water potential and hydraulic risk in plants

Minimum water potential (Ψ_min ) is a key variable for characterizing dehydration tolerance and hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) in plants. Ψ_min is usually estimated as the absolute minimum tissue Ψ experienced by a species, but this is problematic because sample extremes are affected by sample size and the underlying probability distribution. We compare alternative approaches to estimate Ψ_min and assess the corresponding uncertainties and biases; propose statistically robust estimation methods based on extreme value theory (EVT); and assess the implications of our results for the characterization of hydraulic risk. Our results show that current estimates of Ψ_min and HSMs are biased, as they are strongly affected by sample size. Because sampling effort is generally higher for species living in dry environments, the differences in current Ψ_min estimates between these species and those living under milder conditions are partly artefactual. When this bias is corrected using EVT methods, resulting HSMs tend to increase substantially with resistance to embolism across species. Although data availability and representativeness remain the main challenges for proper determination of Ψ_min , a closer look at Ψ distributions and the use of statistically robust methods to estimate Ψ_min opens new ground for characterizing plant hydraulic risks.

Thermal limits in the face of infectious disease: How important are pathogens?

The frequency and severity of both extreme thermal events and disease outbreaks are predicted to continue to shift as a consequence of global change. As a result, species persistence will likely be increasingly dependent on the interaction between thermal stress and pathogen exposure. Missing from the intersection between studies of infectious disease and thermal ecology, however, is the capacity for pathogen exposure to directly disrupt a host's ability to cope with thermal stress. Common sources of variation in host thermal performance, which are likely to interact with infection, are also often unaccounted for when assessing either the vulnerability of species or the potential for disease spread during extreme thermal events. Here, we describe how infection can directly alter host thermal limits, to a degree that exceeds the level of variation commonly seen across species large geographic distributions and that equals the detrimental impact of other ecologically relevant stressors. We then discuss various sources of heterogeneity within and between populations that are likely to be important in mediating the impact that infection has on variation in host thermal limits. In doing so we highlight how infection is a widespread and important source of variation in host thermal performance, which will have implications for both the persistence and vulnerability of species and the dynamics and transmission of disease in a more thermally extreme world.