Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Alpine Rhododendron population contractions lead to spatial distribution mismatch with their pollinators under climate change

The effect of global climate change on plant-pollinator interaction is not limited to changes in phenology and richness within communities but also includes the spatial mismatch caused by the inconsistency of geographical distribution changes. Subsequently, the pollinator interaction network may be remodeled or even disrupted. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat niche of 15 Rhododendron species and their eight pollinator species as well as their overlapping versus geographical mismatch under the current and three future climate change scenarios in 2090s, using MaxEnt. Results showed that the suitable habitat of all Rhododendron species would decrease in 2090s. In particular, 10, 8, and 13 Rhododendron-pollinator assemblages would have a reduced spatial match region under the climate change scenarios, mainly due to the contraction of the suitable habitat of Rhododendron species. The results provide novel insights into the response of plant-pollinator interactions to global warming, useful to prioritize conservation actions of alpine plant ecosystems.

Collective effects of rising average temperatures and heat events on oviparous embryos

Survival of the immobile embryo in response to rising temperature is important to determine a species' vulnerability to climate change. However, the collective effects of 2 key thermal characteristics associated with climate change (i.e., rising average temperature and acute heat events) on embryonic survival remain largely unexplored. We used empirical measurements and niche modeling to investigate how chronic and acute heat stress independently and collectively influence the embryonic survival of lizards across latitudes. We collected and bred lizards from 5 latitudes and incubated their eggs across a range of temperatures to quantify population-specific responses to chronic and acute heat stress. Using an embryonic development model parameterized with measured embryonic heat tolerances, we further identified a collective impact of embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerances on embryonic survival. We also incorporated embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerance in hybrid species distribution models to determine species' range shifts under climate change. Embryos' tolerance of chronic heat (T-chronic) remained consistent across latitudes, whereas their tolerance of acute heat (T-acute) was higher at high latitudes than at low latitudes. Tolerance of acute heat exerted a more pronounced influence than tolerance of chronic heat. In species distribution models, climate change led to the most significant habitat loss for each population and species in its low-latitude distribution. Consequently, habitat for populations across all latitudes will shift toward high latitudes. Our study also highlights the importance of considering embryonic survival under chronic and acute heat stresses to predict species' vulnerability to climate change.

Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia

Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041-2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional-to-national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Anticipating anthropogenic threats in acquiring new protected areas

Biodiversity continues to decline despite protected area expansion and global conservation commitments. Biodiversity losses occur in existing protected areas, yet common methods used to select protected areas ignore postimplementation threats that reduce effectiveness. We developed a conservation planning framework that considers the ongoing anthropogenic threats within protected areas when selecting sites and the value of planning for costly threat-mitigating activities (i.e., enforcement) at the time of siting decisions. We applied the framework to a set of landscapes that contained the range of possible correlations between species richness and threat. Accounting for threats and implementing enforcement activities increased benefits from protected areas without increasing budgets. Threat information was valuable in conserving more species per spending level even without enforcement, especially on landscapes with randomly distributed threats. Benefits from including threat information and enforcement were greatest when human threats peaked in areas of high species richness and were lowest where human threats were negatively associated with species richness. Because acquiring information on threats and using threat-mitigating activities are costly, our findings can guide decision-makers regarding the settings in which to pursue these planning steps.

The great urban shift: Climate change is predicted to drive mass species turnover in cities

Human experiences with nature are important for our culture, economy, and health. Anthropogenically-driven climate change is causing widespread shifts in biodiversity and resident urban wildlife are no exception. We modelled over 2,000 animal species to predict how climate change will impact terrestrial wildlife within 60 Canadian and American cities. We found evidence of an impending great urban shift where thousands of species will disappear across the selected cities, being replaced by new species, or not replaced at all. Effects were largely species-specific, with the most negatively impacted taxa being amphibians, canines, and loons. These predicted shifts were consistent across scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, but our results show that the severity of change will be defined by our action or inaction to mitigate climate change. An impending massive shift in urban wildlife will impact the cultural experiences of human residents, the delivery of ecosystem services, and our relationship with nature.

Whole-mitogenome analysis unveils previously undescribed genetic diversity in cane toads across their invasion trajectory

Invasive species offer insights into rapid adaptation to novel environments. The iconic cane toad (Rhinella marina) is an excellent model for studying rapid adaptation during invasion. Previous research using the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase 3 (ND3) gene in Hawai'ian and Australian invasive populations found a single haplotype, indicating an extreme genetic bottleneck following introduction. Nuclear genetic diversity also exhibited reductions across the genome in these two populations. Here, we investigated the mitochondrial genomics of cane toads across this invasion trajectory. We created the first reference mitochondrial genome for this species using long-read sequence data. We combined whole-genome resequencing data of 15 toads with published transcriptomic data of 125 individuals to construct nearly complete mitochondrial genomes from the native (French Guiana) and introduced (Hawai'i and Australia) ranges for population genomic analyses. In agreement with previous investigations of these populations, we identified genetic bottlenecks in both Hawai'ian and Australian introduced populations, alongside evidence of population expansion in the invasive ranges. Although mitochondrial genetic diversity in introduced populations was reduced, our results revealed that it had been underestimated: we identified 45 mitochondrial haplotypes in Hawai'ian and Australian samples, none of which were found in the native range. Additionally, we identified two distinct groups of haplotypes from the native range, separated by a minimum of 110 base pairs (0.6%). These findings enhance our understanding of how invasion has shaped the genetic landscape of this species.

Genomic analyses indicate resilience of a commercially and culturally important marine gastropod snail to climate change

Genomic vulnerability analyses are being increasingly used to assess the adaptability of species to climate change and provide an opportunity for proactive management of harvested marine species in changing oceans. Southeastern Australia is a climate change hotspot where many marine species are shifting poleward. The turban snail, Turbo militaris is a commercially and culturally harvested marine gastropod snail from eastern Australia. The species has exhibited a climate-driven poleward range shift over the last two decades presenting an ongoing challenge for sustainable fisheries management. We investigate the impact of future climate change on T. militaris using genotype-by-sequencing to project patterns of gene flow and local adaptation across its range under climate change scenarios. A single admixed, and potentially panmictic, demographic unit was revealed with no evidence of genetic subdivision across the species range. Significant genotype associations with heterogeneous habitat features were observed, including associations with sea surface temperature, ocean currents, and nutrients, indicating possible adaptive genetic differentiation. These findings suggest that standing genetic variation may be available for selection to counter future environmental change, assisted by widespread gene flow, high fecundity and short generation time in this species. We discuss the findings of this study in the content of future fisheries management and conservation.

Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean

Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.

Fish germ cell cryobanking and transplanting for conservation

The unprecedented loss of global biodiversity is linked to multiple anthropogenic stressors. New conservation technologies are urgently needed to mitigate this loss. The rights, knowledge and perspectives of Indigenous peoples in biodiversity conservation-including the development and application of new technologies-are increasingly recognised. Advances in germplasm cryopreservation and germ cell transplantation (termed 'broodstock surrogacy') techniques offer exciting tools to preserve biodiversity, but their application has been underappreciated. Here, we use teleost fishes as an exemplar group to outline (1) the power of these techniques to preserve genome-wide genetic diversity, (2) the need to apply a conservation genomic lens when selecting individuals for germplasm cryobanking and broodstock surrogacy and (3) the value of considering the cultural significance of these genomic resources. We conclude by discussing the opportunities and challenges of these techniques for conserving biodiversity in threatened teleost fish and beyond.

Camera trapping expands the view into global biodiversity and its change

Growing threats to biodiversity demand timely, detailed information on species occurrence, diversity and abundance at large scales. Camera traps (CTs), combined with computer vision models, provide an efficient method to survey species of certain taxa with high spatio-temporal resolution. We test the potential of CTs to close biodiversity knowledge gaps by comparing CT records of terrestrial mammals and birds from the recently released Wildlife Insights platform to publicly available occurrences from many observation types in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. In locations with CTs, we found they sampled a greater number of days (mean = 133 versus 57 days) and documented additional species (mean increase of 1% of expected mammals). For species with CT data, we found CTs provided novel documentation of their ranges (93% of mammals and 48% of birds). Countries with the largest boost in data coverage were in the historically underrepresented southern hemisphere. Although embargoes increase data providers' willingness to share data, they cause a lag in data availability. Our work shows that the continued collection and mobilization of CT data, especially when combined with data sharing that supports attribution and privacy, has the potential to offer a critical lens into biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

The lack of genetic variation underlying thermal transcriptomic plasticity suggests limited adaptability of the Northern shrimp, Pandalus borealis

Introduction

Genetic variation underlies the populations’ potential to adapt to and persist in a changing environment, while phenotypic plasticity can play a key role in buffering the negative impacts of such change at the individual level.

Methods

We investigated the role of genetic variation in the thermal response of the northern shrimp Pandalus borealis, an ectotherm species distributed in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. More specifically, we estimated the proportion transcriptomic responses explained by genetic variance of female shrimp from three origins after 30 days of exposure to three temperature treatments.

Results

We characterized the P. borealis transcriptome (170,377 transcripts, of which 27.48% were functionally annotated) and then detected a total of 1,607 and 907 differentially expressed transcripts between temperatures and origins, respectively. Shrimp from different origins displayed high but similar level of transcriptomic plasticity in response to elevated temperatures. Differences in transcript expression among origins were not correlated to population genetic differentiation or diversity but to environmental conditions at origin during sampling.

Discussion

The lack of genetic variation explaining thermal plasticity suggests limited adaptability in this species’ response to future environmental changes. These results together with higher mortality observed at the highest temperature indicate that the thermal niche of P. borealis will likely be restricted to higher latitudes in the future. This prediction concurs with current decreases in abundance observed at the southern edge of this species geographical distribution, as it is for other cold-adapted crustaceans.

Tropicalization shifts herbivore pressure from seagrass to rocky reef communities

Climate-driven species redistributions are reshuffling the composition of marine ecosystems. How these changes alter ecosystem functions, however, remains poorly understood. Here we examine how impacts of herbivory change across a gradient of tropicalization in the Mediterranean Sea, which includes a steep climatic gradient and marked changes in plant nutritional quality and fish herbivore composition. We quantified individual feeding rates and behaviour of 755 fishes of the native Sarpa salpa, and non-native Siganus rivulatus and Siganus luridus. We measured herbivore and benthic assemblage composition across 20 sites along the gradient, spanning 30° of longitude and 8° of latitude. We coupled patterns in behaviour and composition with temperature measurements and nutrient concentrations to assess changes in herbivory under tropicalization. We found a transition in ecological impacts by fish herbivory across the Mediterranean from a predominance of seagrass herbivory in the west to a dominance of macroalgal herbivory in the east. Underlying this shift were changes in both individual feeding behaviour (i.e. food choice) and fish assemblage composition. The shift in feeding selectivity was consistent among temperate and warm-affiliated herbivores. Our findings suggest herbivory can contribute to the increased vulnerability of seaweed communities and reduced vulnerability of seagrass meadows in tropicalized ecosystems.

Choosing among correlative, mechanistic, and hybrid models of species' niche and distribution

Different models are available to estimate species' niche and distribution. Mechanistic and correlative models have different underlying conceptual bases, thus generating different estimates of a species' niche and geographic extent. Hybrid models, which combining correlative and mechanistic approaches, are considered a promising strategy; however, no synthesis in the literature assessed their applicability for terrestrial vertebrates to allow best-choice model considering their strengths and trade-offs. Here, we provide a systematic review of studies that compared or integrated correlative and mechanistic models to estimate species' niche for terrestrial vertebrates under climate change. Our goal was to understand their conceptual, methodological, and performance differences, and the applicability of each approach. The studies we reviewed directly compared mechanistic and correlative predictions in terms of accuracy or estimated suitable area, however, without any quantitative analysis to support comparisons. Contrastingly, many studies suggest that instead of comparing approaches, mechanistic and correlative methods should be integrated (hybrid models). However, we stress that the best approach is highly context-dependent. Indeed, the quality and effectiveness of the prediction depends on the study's objective, methodological design, and which type of species' niche and geographic distribution estimated are more appropriate to answer the study's issue.

Warming signals in temperate reef communities following more than a decade of ecological stability

Ecosystem structure and function are increasingly threatened by changing climate, with profound effects observed globally in recent decades. Based on standardized visual censuses of reef biodiversity, we describe 27 years of community-level change for fishes, mobile macroinvertebrates and macroalgae in the Tasmanian ocean-warming hotspot. Significant ecological change was observed across 94 reef sites (5-10 m depth range) spanning four coastal regions between three periods (1992-95, 2006-07, 2017-19), which occurred against a background of pronounced sea temperature rise (+0.80°C on average). Overall, fish biomass increased, macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance decreased and macroalgal cover decreased, particularly during the most recent decade. While reef communities were relatively stable and warming was slight between the 1990s and mid-2000s (+0.12°C mean temperature rise), increased abundances of warm affinity fishes and invertebrates accompanied warming during the most recent decade (+0.68°C rise). However, significant rises in the community temperature index (CTI) were only found for fishes, invertebrates and macroalgae in some regions. Coastal warming was associated with increased fish biomass of non-targeted species in fished zones but had little effect on reef communities within marine reserves. Higher abundances of larger fishes and lobsters inside reserves appeared to negate impacts of 'thermophilization'.

Habitat configurations shape the trophic and energetic dynamics of reef fishes in a tropical-temperate transition zone: implications under a warming future

Understanding the extent to which species' traits mediate patterns of community assembly is key to predict the effect of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on ecosystem functioning. Here, we apply a trait-based community assembly framework to understand how four different habitat configurations (kelp forests, Sargassum spp. beds, hard corals, and turfs) shape the trophic and energetic dynamics of reef fish assemblages in a tropical-temperate transition zone. Specifically, we tested (i) the degree of trait divergence and convergence in each habitat, (ii) which traits explained variation in species' abundances, and (iii) differences in standing biomass (kg ha-1), secondary productivity (kg ha-1 day-1) and turnover (% day-1). Fish assemblages in coral and kelp habitats displayed greater evidence of trait convergence, while turf and Sargassum spp. habitats displayed a higher degree of trait divergence, a pattern that was mostly driven by traits related to resource use and thermal affinity. This filtering effect had an imprint on the trophic and energetic dynamics of reef fishes, with turf habitats supporting higher fish biomass and productivity. However, these gains were strongly dependent on trophic guild, with herbivores/detritivores disproportionately contributing to among-habitat differences. Despite these perceived overall gains, turnover was decoupled for fishes that act as conduit of energy to higher trophic levels (i.e. microinvertivores), with coral habitats displaying higher rates of fish biomass replenishment than turf despite their lower productivity. This has important implications for biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, questioning the long-term sustainability of ecological processes and fisheries yields in increasingly altered marine habitats.

Human-elephant conflict risk assessment under coupled climatic and anthropogenic changes in Thailand

As natural resources decrease, competition between humans and large endangered wildlife increases, hindering the sustainability of animal conservation and human development. Despite the multi-dimensional nature of such interactions, proactive assessments that consider both the biosphere and anthroposphere remain limited. In this study, we proposed a human elephant conflict risk assessment framework and analyzed the spatial distribution of risk at the baseline (2000-2019) and in the near future (2025-2044) for Thailand, so that it may address the multifaceted characteristics and impending effects of climate change. Future scenarios were based on the combination of RCP45/SSP2 or RCP85/SSP5 and spatial policy, with or without elephant buffer zones. The composite risk index, comprised of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, was constructed using the geometric mean, and validation was performed with the area under the curve (AUC). Our results projected a shift with increasing future risk toward higher latitudes and altitudes. Increasing future risk (average +1.7% to +7.4%) in the four forest complexes (FCs) in northwestern regions was a result of higher hazard and vulnerability from more favorable habitat conditions and increasing drought probability, respectively. Reduction in future risk (average -3.1% to -57.9%) in other FCs in lower regions was mainly due to decreasing hazard because of decreasing habitat suitability. Our results also highlight geographically explicit strategies to support long-term planning of conservation resources. Areas with increasing future risk are currently facing low conflict; hence it is recommended that future strategies should enhance adaptive capacity and coexistence awareness. Conversely, areas with lowering future risk from a decrease in habitat quality are recommended to identify buffer strategies around protected areas to support existing large elephant populations.

Climate change-induced invasion risk of ecosystem disturbing alien plant species: An evaluation using species distribution modeling

Species distribution modeling is widely used for evaluating invasion risk, and for prioritizing areas for the control and management of invasive species. However, selecting a modeling tool that accurately predicts species invasion risk requires a systematic approach. In this study, five species distribution models (SDMs), namely, artificial neural network (ANN), generalized linear model (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and random forest (RF), were performed and evaluated their model performance using the mean value of area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS), and Kappa scores of 12 ecosystem disturbing alien plant species (EDAPS). The mean evaluation metric scores were highest in RF (AUC = 0.924 ± 0.058, TSS = 0.789 ± 0.109, Kappa = 0.671 ± 0.096, n = 12) and lowest in ANN. The ANOVA of AUC, TSS, and Kappa metrics revealed the RF model was significantly different from other SDMs and was therefore selected as the relatively best model. The potential distribution area and invasion risk for each EDAPS were quantified. Under the current climate conditions of South Korea, the average potential distribution area of EDAPS was estimated to be 13,062 km2. However, in future climate change scenarios, the average percentage change of EDAPS distribution relative to the current climate was predicted to be increased over 219.93%. Furthermore, under the current climate, 0.16% of the area of the country was estimated to be under a very high risk of invasion, but this would increase to 60.43% by 2070. Invasion risk under the current climate conditions was highest in the northwestern, southern, and southeastern regions, and in densely populated cities, such as Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. By 2070, invasion risk was predicted to expand across the whole country except in the northeastern region. These results suggested that climate change induced the risk of EDAPS invasiveness, and SDMs could be valuable tools for alien and invasive plant species risk assessment.

Range shifts of overwintering birds depend on habitat type, snow conditions and habitat specialization

Climatic warming is forcing species to shift their ranges poleward, which has been demonstrated for many taxa globally. Yet, the influence of habitat types on within- and among-species variations of distribution shifts has rarely been studied, especially during the non-breeding season. Here, we investigated habitat-specific shift distances of northern range margins and directions of the distribution center based on long-term data of overwintering birds in Finland. Specifically, we explored influences of habitat type, species' snow depth tolerance, species' climatic niche and habitat specialization on range shifts during the past 40 years in 81 bird species. Birds overwintering in arable land shifted more clearly toward north compared to birds of the same species in rural and forest habitats, while the northern range margin shift distances did not significantly differ among the habitat types. Range shifts were more linked with the species' snow depth tolerance rather than species' climatic niche. Snow depth tolerance of species was negatively associated with the eastward shift direction across all habitats, while we found habitat-specific patterns with snow depth for northward shift directions and northern margin shift distances. Species with stronger habitat specializations shifted more strongly toward north as compared to generalist species, whereas the climatic niche of bird species only marginally correlated with range shifts, so that cold-dwelling species shifted longer distances and more clearly eastward. Our study reveals habitat-specific patterns linked to snow conditions for overwintering boreal birds and highlights the importance of habitat availability and preference in climate driven range shifts.

Latitudinal Diversity Gradient in the Changing World: Retrospectives and Perspectives

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most extensive and important biodiversity patterns on the Earth. Various studies have established that species diversity increases with higher taxa numbers from the polar to the tropics. Studies of multicellular biotas have supported the LDG patterns from land (e.g., plants, animals, forests, wetlands, grasslands, fungi, and so forth) to oceans (e.g., marine organisms from freshwater invertebrates, continental shelve, open ocean, even to the deep sea invertebrates). So far, there are several hypotheses proposed to explore the diversity patterns and mechanisms of LDG, however, there has been no consensus on the underlying causes of LDG over the past few decades. Thus, we reviewed the progress of LDG studies in recent years. Although several explanations for the LDG have been proposed, these hypotheses are only based on species richness, evolution and the ecosystems. In this review, we summarize the effects of evolution and ecology on the LDG patterns to synthesize the formation mechanisms of the general biodiversity distribution patterns. These intertwined factors from ecology and evolution in the LDG are generally due to the wider distribution of tropical areas, which hinders efforts to distinguish their relative contributions. However, the mechanisms of LDG always engaged controversies, especially in such a context that the human activity and climate change has affected the biodiversity. With the development of molecular biology, more genetic/genomic data are available to facilitate the estimation of global biodiversity patterns with regard to climate, latitude, and other factors. Given that human activity and climate change have inevitably impacted on biodiversity loss, biodiversity conservation should focus on the change in LDG pattern. Using large-scale genetic/genomic data to disentangle the diversity mechanisms and patterns of LDG, will provide insights into biodiversity conservation and management measures. Future perspectives of LDG with integrative genetic/genomic, species, evolution, and ecosystem diversity patterns, as well as the mechanisms that apply to biodiversity conservation, are discussed. It is imperative to explore integrated approaches for recognizing the causes of LDG in the context of rapid loss of diversity in a changing world.

The nutritional and sensory quality of seafood in a changing climate

Climate change is impacting living marine resources, whilst concomitantly, global reliance on seafood as a source of nutrition is increasing. Here we review an emerging research frontier, identifying significant impacts of climate-driven environmental change on the nutritional and sensory quality of seafood, and implications for human health. We highlight that changing ocean temperature, pH and salinity can lead to reductions in seafood macro and micronutrients, including essential nutrients such as protein and lipids. However, the nutritional quality of seafood appears to be more resilient in taxa that inhabit naturally variable environments such as estuaries and shallow near-coastal habitats. We develop criteria for assessing confidence in categorising the nutritional quality of seafood as vulnerable or resilient to climate change. The application of this criteria to a subset of seafood nutritional studies demonstrates confidence levels are generally low and could be improved by more realistic experimental designs and research collaboration. We highlight knowledge gaps to guide future research in this emerging field.

Persistent thermally driven shift in the functional trait structure of herbivorous fishes: Evidence of top-down control on the rebound potential of temperate seaweed forests?

Extreme climatic events can reshape the functional structure of ecological communities, potentially altering ecological interactions and ecosystem functioning. While these shifts have been widely documented, evidence of their persistence and potential flow-on effects on ecosystem structure following relaxation of extreme events remains limited. Here, we investigate changes in the functional trait structure - encompassing dimensions of resource use, thermal affinity, and body size - of herbivorous fishes in a temperate reef system that experienced an extreme marine heatwave (MHW) and subsequent return to cool conditions. We quantify how changes in the trait structure modified the nature and intensity of herbivory-related functions (macroalgae, turf, and sediment removal), and explored the potential flow-on effects on the recovery dynamics of macroalgal foundation species. The trait structure of the herbivorous fish assemblage shifted as a result of the MHW, from dominance of cool-water browsing species to increased evenness in the distribution of abundance among temperate and tropical guilds supporting novel herbivory roles (i.e. scraping, cropping, and sediment sucking). Despite the abundance of tropical herbivorous fishes and intensity of herbivory-related functions declined following a period of cooling after the MHW, the underlying trait structure displayed limited recovery. Concomitantly, algal assemblages displayed a lack of recovery of the formerly dominant foundational species, the kelp Ecklonia radiata, transitioning to an alternative state dominated by turf and Sargassum spp. Our study demonstrates a legacy effect of an extreme MHW and exemplified the value of monitoring phenotypic (trait mediated) changes in the nature of core ecosystem processes to predict and adapt to the future configurations of changing reef ecosystems.

Sounding the Call for a Global Library of Underwater Biological Sounds

Aquatic environments encompass the world’s most extensive habitats, rich with sounds produced by a diversity of animals. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) is an increasingly accessible remote sensing technology that uses hydrophones to listen to the underwater world and represents an unprecedented, non-invasive method to monitor underwater environments. This information can assist in the delineation of biologically important areas via detection of sound-producing species or characterization of ecosystem type and condition, inferred from the acoustic properties of the local soundscape. At a time when worldwide biodiversity is in significant decline and underwater soundscapes are being altered as a result of anthropogenic impacts, there is a need to document, quantify, and understand biotic sound sources–potentially before they disappear. A significant step toward these goals is the development of a web-based, open-access platform that provides: (1) a reference library of known and unknown biological sound sources (by integrating and expanding existing libraries around the world); (2) a data repository portal for annotated and unannotated audio recordings of single sources and of soundscapes; (3) a training platform for artificial intelligence algorithms for signal detection and classification; and (4) a citizen science-based application for public users. Although individually, these resources are often met on regional and taxa-specific scales, many are not sustained and, collectively, an enduring global database with an integrated platform has not been realized. We discuss the benefits such a program can provide, previous calls for global data-sharing and reference libraries, and the challenges that need to be overcome to bring together bio- and ecoacousticians, bioinformaticians, propagation experts, web engineers, and signal processing specialists (e.g., artificial intelligence) with the necessary support and funding to build a sustainable and scalable platform that could address the needs of all contributors and stakeholders into the future.

Effects of ocean acidification on the biochemistry, physiology and parental transfer of Ampelisca brevicornis (Costa, 1853)

Ocean acidification (OA) has received more attention in the marine research community in recent years than any other topic. Excess carbon dioxide makes the ocean more acidic, threatening marine ecosystems. There has been little research on the impact of OA on crustaceans, particularly on their physiological and potential ecosystem-level consequences. Thus, we investigated the impacts of OA on the physiological and biochemical characteristics of the estuarine amphipod Ampelisca brevicornis. Ovigerous amphipods were harvested from nature and maintained in the laboratory to produce juveniles, which were then further reared to obtain the mature adults (F0) and successive offspring (F1). For this study, four pH treatments (pH 8.1, 7.5, 7.0, and 6.5) mimicking future OA were evaluated to understand the physiological and biochemical effects on the organisms. The findings of this study suggest that A. brevicornis is more vulnerable to OA than was previously established in short-term trials. The survival was significantly reduced as pH decreased over time and a significant interaction between pH and time was observed. Survival was higher in F1 than in F0 juveniles and vice versa in terms of growth. Animal's physiological responses such as growth, burrowing behavior, locomotor activity, swimming speed, ventilation rate and reproductive performance were negatively influenced by acidification. These physiological characteristics can be linked to the oxidative stress induced by global change conditions because excess of free radicals degrade cell functioning, affecting species' biochemical and physiological performance. These alterations may have long-term negative impacts, with ecological consequences. The results of this study provide baseline information regarding the effect of OA on this keystone crustacean that may be useful in simulating the impacts of OA to develop different conceptual models for a better understanding of the consequences and implications of climate change in the future for managing marine ecosystems.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

A Science Agenda to Inform Natural Resource Management Decisions in an Era of Ecological Transformation

Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.

Morphological and behavioural differences facilitate tropical butterfly persistence in variable environments

The thermal biology of ectotherms largely determines their abundance and distributions. In general, tropical species inhabiting warm and stable thermal environments tend to have low tolerance to cold and variable environments, which may restrict their expansion into temperate climates. However, the distribution of some tropical species does extend into cooler areas such as tropical borders and high elevation tropical mountains. Behavioural and morphological differences may therefore play important roles in facilitating tropical species to cope with cold and variable climates at tropical edges. We used field-validated biophysical models to estimate body temperatures of butterflies across elevational gradients at three sites in southern China and assessed the contribution of behavioural and morphological differences in facilitating their persistence in tropical and temperate climates. We investigated the effects of temperature on the activity of 4,844 individuals of 144 butterfly species along thermal gradients and tested whether species of different climatic affinities-tropical and widespread (distributed in both temperate and tropical regions)-differed in their thermoregulatory strategies (i.e. basking). In addition, we tested whether thermally related morphology or the strength of solar radiation (when butterflies were recorded) was related to such differences. We found that activities of tropical species were restricted (low abundance) at low air temperatures compared to widespread species. Active tropical species were also more likely to bask at cooler body temperatures than widespread species. Heat gain from behavioural thermoregulation was higher for tropical species (when accounting for species abundance), and heat gain correlated with larger thorax widths but not with measured solar radiation. Our results indicate that physiological intolerance to cold temperatures in tropical species may be compensated through behavioural and morphological responses in thermoregulation in variable subtropical environments. Increasing climatic variability with climate change may render tropical species more vulnerable to cold weather extremes compared to widespread species that are more physiologically suited to variable environments.

Global and national trends, gaps, and opportunities in documenting and monitoring species distributions

Conserving and managing biodiversity in the face of ongoing global change requires sufficient evidence to assess status and trends of species distributions. Here, we propose novel indicators of biodiversity data coverage and sampling effectiveness and analyze national trajectories in closing spatiotemporal knowledge gaps for terrestrial vertebrates (1950 to 2019). Despite a rapid rise in data coverage, particularly in the last 2 decades, strong geographic and taxonomic biases persist. For some taxa and regions, a tremendous growth in records failed to directly translate into newfound knowledge due to a sharp decline in sampling effectiveness. However, we found that a nation’s coverage was stronger for species for which it holds greater stewardship. As countries under the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework renew their commitments to an improved, rigorous biodiversity knowledge base, our findings highlight opportunities for international collaboration to close critical information gaps.

Conserving and managing biodiversity in the face of ongoing global change requires sufficient evidence to assess status and trends of species distributions. This study analyzes national trajectories in closing spatiotemporal knowledge gaps for terrestrial vertebrates (1950-2019) based on novel indicators of data coverage and sampling effectiveness.

Distinct interspecific and intraspecific vulnerability of coastal species to global change

Characterising and predicting species responses to anthropogenic global change is one of the key challenges in contemporary ecology and conservation. The sensitivity of marine species to climate change is increasingly being described with forecasted species distributions, yet these rarely account for population level processes such as genomic variation and local adaptation. This study compares inter- and intraspecific patterns of biological composition to determine how vulnerability to climate change, and its environmental drivers, vary across species and populations. We compare species trajectories for three ecologically important southern African marine invertebrates at two time points in the future, both at the species level, with correlative species distribution models, and at the population level, with gradient forest models. Reported range shifts are species-specific and include both predicted range gains and losses. Forecasted species responses to climate change are strongly influenced by changes in a suite of environmental variables, from sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, to minimum air temperature. Our results further suggest a mismatch between future habitat suitability (where species can remain in their ecological niche) and genomic vulnerability (where populations retain their genomic composition), highlighting the inter- and intraspecific variability in species' sensitivity to global change. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of considering species and population level climatic vulnerability when proactively managing coastal marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental-scale review of climate-driven species redistribution in marine systems

Climate-driven changes in the distribution of species are a pervasive and accelerating impact of climate change, and despite increasing research effort in this rapidly emerging field, much remains unknown or poorly understood. We lack a holistic understanding of patterns and processes at local, regional and global scales, with detailed explorations of range shifts in the southern hemisphere particularly under-represented. Australian waters encompass the world's third largest marine jurisdiction, extending from tropical to sub-Antarctic climate zones, and have waters warming at rates twice the global average in the north and two to four times in the south. Here, we report the results of a multi-taxon continent-wide review describing observed and predicted species redistribution around the Australian coastline, and highlight critical gaps in knowledge impeding our understanding of, and response to, these considerable changes. Since range shifts were first reported in the region in 2003, 198 species from nine Phyla have been documented shifting their distribution, 87.3% of which are shifting poleward. However, there is little standardization of methods or metrics reported in observed or predicted shifts, and both are hindered by a lack of baseline data. Our results demonstrate the importance of historical data sets and underwater visual surveys, and also highlight that approximately one-fifth of studies incorporated citizen science. These findings emphasize the important role the public has had, and can continue to play, in understanding the impact of climate change. Most documented shifts are of coastal fish species in sub-tropical and temperate systems, while tropical systems in general were poorly explored. Moreover, most distributional changes are only described at the poleward boundary, with few studies considering changes at the warmer, equatorward range limit. Through identifying knowledge gaps and research limitations, this review highlights future opportunities for strategic research effort to improve the representation of Australian marine species and systems in climate-impact research.

Invasion history shapes host transcriptomic response to a body-snatching parasite

By shuffling biogeographical distributions, biological invasions can both disrupt long-standing associations between hosts and parasites and establish new ones. This creates natural experiments with which to study the ecology and evolution of host-parasite interactions. In estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico, the white-fingered mud crab (Rhithropanopeus harrisii) is infected by a native parasitic barnacle, Loxothylacus panopaei (Rhizocephala), which manipulates host physiology and behaviour. In the 1960s, L. panopaei was introduced to the Chesapeake Bay and has since expanded along the southeastern Atlantic coast, while host populations in the northeast have so far been spared. We use this system to test the host's transcriptomic response to parasitic infection and investigate how this response varies with the parasite's invasion history, comparing populations representing (i) long-term sympatry between host and parasite, (ii) new associations where the parasite has invaded during the last 60 years and (iii) naïve hosts without prior exposure. A comparison of parasitized and control crabs revealed a core response, with widespread downregulation of transcripts involved in immunity and moulting. The transcriptional response differed between hosts from the parasite's native range and where it is absent, consistent with previous observations of increased susceptibility in populations lacking exposure to the parasite. Crabs from the parasite's introduced range, where prevalence is highest, displayed the most dissimilar response, possibly reflecting immune priming. These results provide molecular evidence for parasitic manipulation of host phenotype and the role of gene regulation in mediating host-parasite interactions.

Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change

Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales.

We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population‐level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene‐by‐environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population‐level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems.

We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose.

By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.

Pleistocene divergence in the absence of gene flow among populations of a viviparous reptile with intraspecific variation in sex determination

Polymorphisms can lead to genetic isolation if there is differential mating success among conspecifics divergent for a trait. Polymorphism for sex-determining system may fall into this category, given strong selection for the production of viable males and females and the low success of heterogametic hybrids when sex chromosomes differ (Haldane's rule). Here we investigated whether populations exhibiting polymorphism for sex determination are genetically isolated, using the viviparous snow skink Carinascincus ocellatus. While a comparatively high elevation population has genotypic sex determination, in a lower elevation population there is an additional temperature component to sex determination. Based on 11,107 SNP markers, these populations appear genetically isolated. "Isolation with Migration" analysis also suggests these populations diverged in the absence of gene flow, across a period encompassing multiple Pleistocene glaciations and likely greater geographic proximity of populations. However, further experiments are required to establish whether genetic isolation may be a cause or consequence of differences in sex determination. Given the influence of temperature on sex in one lineage, we also discuss the implications for the persistence of this polymorphism under climate change.

A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment

Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.

Evolutionary principles and genetic considerations for guiding conservation interventions under climate change

Impacts of climate change are apparent in natural systems around the world. Many species are and will continue to struggle to persist in their current location as their preferred environment changes. Traditional conservation efforts aiming to prevent local extinctions have focused on two aspects that theoretically enhance genetic diversity-population connectivity and population size-through 'passive interventions' (such as protected areas and connectivity corridors). However, the exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity that we are experiencing as result of anthropogenic climate change has shifted conservation approaches to more 'active interventions' (such as rewilding, assisted gene flow, assisted evolution, artificial selection, genetic engineering). We integrate genetic/genomic approaches into an evolutionary biology framework in order to discuss with scientists, conservation managers and decision makers about the opportunities and risks of interventions that need careful consideration in order to avoid unwanted evolutionary outcomes.

Microgeography, Not Just Latitude, Drives Climate Overlap on Mountains from Tropical to Polar Ecosystems

AbstractAn extension of the climate variability hypothesis is that relatively stable climate, such as that of the tropics, induces distinct thermal bands across elevation that render dispersal over tropical mountains difficult compared with temperate mountains. Yet ecosystems are not thermally static in space-time, especially at small scales, which might render some mountains greater thermal isolators than others. Here we provide an extensive investigation of temperature drivers from fine to coarse scales, and we demonstrate that the degree of similarity in temperatures at high and low elevations on mountains is driven by more than just absolute mountain height and latitude. We compiled a database of 29 mountains spanning six continents to characterize thermal overlap by vertically stratified microhabitats and biomes and owing to seasonal changes in foliage, demonstrating via mixed effects modeling that micro- and mesogeography more strongly influence thermal overlap than macrogeography. Impressively, an increase of 1 m of vertical microhabitat height generates an increase in overlap equivalent to a 5.26° change in latitude. In addition, forested mountains have reduced thermal overlap-149% lower-relative to nonforested mountains. We provide evidence in support of a climate hypothesis that emphasizes microgeography as a determinant of dispersal, demographics, and behavior, thereby refining the classical theory of macroclimate variability as a prominent driver of biogeography.

Ten bridges on the road to recovering Canada’s endangered species

Wildlife is declining around the world. Many developed nations have enacted legislation on endangered species protection and provide funding for wildlife recovery. Protecting endangered species is also supported by the public and judiciary. Yet, despite what appear as enabling conditions, wild species continue to decline. Our paper explores pathways to endangered species recovery by analyzing the barriers that have been identified in Canada, the United States, and Australia. We summarize these findings based on Canada’s Species at Risk Conservation Cycle (assessment, protection, recovery planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation) and then identify 10 “bridges” that could help overcome these barriers and bend our current trajectory of wildlife loss to recovery. These bridges include ecosystem approaches to recovery, building capacity for community co-governance, linking wildlife recovery to ecosystem services, and improving our storytelling about the loss and recovery of wildlife. The focus of our conclusions is the Canadian setting, but our findings can be applied in other national and subnational settings to reverse the decline of wildlife and halt extinction.