Achieving cost‐effective landscape‐scale forest restoration through targeted natural regeneration

Nature-based solutions potential for flood risk reduction under extreme rainfall events

Climate change will substantially increase extreme rainfall events, especially in the Tropics, enhancing flood risks. Such imminent risks require climate adaptation strategies to endure extreme rainfall and increase drainage systems. Here, we evaluate the potential of nature-based solutions by using an ecosystem service modeling approach, evaluating the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risks in a large urban area and with a real-world land recovery plan. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four different land recovery scenarios and associated co-benefits, based on a gradient increase in area recovered and cost of implementation. Although the scenarios reveal increasing flood risk reduction and co-benefits along with greater proportion of land recovery, the most cost-effective scenario was the one with an intermediate land recovery where 30% of the study area would be reforested. We emphasize the striking benefits of nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction in cities, considering landscape scale and stakeholders' needs.

Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil

Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.

Carbonservation with Demonstrated Biodiversity and Carbon Gains: Carbon Can Pay But Biodiversity Must Lead

Land use has a critical role to play in both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and increasingly there have been calls to integrate policies for concurrently meeting Paris Agreement commitments and the UN decade on ecosystem restoration 2021-2030. Currently however, investment activities have been dominated by climate change mitigation activities, including through the development of carbon markets (both voluntary and compliance markets). Whilst climate change mitigation is to be welcomed, the prioritization of carbon in avoided deforestation and reforestation can lead to suboptimal or negative outcomes for biodiversity. Restoration of degraded native vegetation may provide an opportunity for concurrent production of both carbon and biodiversity benefits, by harnessing existing carbon markets without the need to trade-off biodiversity outcomes. Here we demonstrate that carbon sequestered by restoring degraded temperate woodland can pay the price of the restored biodiversity. This is shown using conservative carbon prices in an established market (during both a voluntary and compliance market phase), and the restoration price revealed by a 10-year conservation incentive payment scheme. When recovery rates are high, market prices for carbon could pay the full price of restoration, with additional independent investment needed in cases where recovery trajectories are slower. Using carbon markets to fund restoration of degraded native vegetation thereby provides a solution for constrained resources and problematic trade-offs between carbon and biodiversity outcomes. Multi-attribute markets offer the potential to greatly increase the extent of restoration for biodiversity conservation, while providing an affordable source of carbon sequestration and enhancing economic benefits to landowners.

Mapping the regeneration potential of native vegetation in cultivated pastures of the Brazilian Cerrado

The Brazilian Cerrado is a hotspot of biodiversity conservation and an important global agricultural region. Cultivated pastures under different degradation levels are dominant in the landscape and are being targeted for sustainable agricultural intensification and restoration of native vegetation. In this study, we classified the cultivated pastures of the Brazilian Cerrado according to their potential for natural regeneration, based on field surveys and environmental predictors. We surveyed the native vegetation cover in 186 plots distributed along 93 cultivated pastures. The environmental predictors considered in this study were the proportion of sand in the soil, cation exchange capacity, climate water deficit, pasture age, slope, and pasture vigor index. We then applied the Random Forest regression algorithm to predict and map the cultivated pastures according to their potential for natural regeneration in the 19 Cerrado ecoregions. The potential for natural regeneration was classified into low (< 30% of native plant cover), medium (30-50%), and high (> 50%). Our prediction explained 75% of the data variability. Most of the cultivated pastures presented medium potential for natural regeneration (57%), while 31% and 12% presented high and low potentials, respectively. Cultivated pastures in ecoregions with high mechanization, due to their high water availability and extensive flat terrains, presented low potential for natural regeneration. This first attempt to map the potential for natural regeneration in the cultivated pastures of the Brazilian Cerrado can be used as a proxy for planning low-cost and predictable restoration or environmentally sustainable intensification in this major type of land use found in this biome.

Cost-effective restoration for carbon sequestration across Brazil's biomes

Tropical ecosystems are central to the global focus on halting and reversing habitat destruction as a means of mitigating carbon emissions. Brazil has been highlighted as a vital part of global climate agreements because, whilst ongoing land-use change causes it to be the world's fifth biggest greenhouse gas emitting country, it also has one of the greatest potentials to implement ecosystem restoration. Global carbon markets provide the opportunity of a financially viable way to implement restoration projects at scale. However, except for rainforests, the restoration potential of many major tropical biomes is not widely recognised, with the result that carbon sequestration potential may be squandered. We synthesize data on land availability, land degradation status, restoration costs, area of native vegetation remaining, carbon storage potential and carbon market prices for 5475 municipalities across Brazil's major biomes, including the savannas and tropical dry forests. Using a modelling analysis, we determine how fast restoration could be implemented across these biomes within existing carbon markets. We argue that even with a sole focus on carbon, we must restore other tropical biomes, as well as rainforests, to effectively increase benefits. The inclusion of dry forests and savannas doubles the area which could be restored in a financially viable manner, increasing the potential CO₂e sequestered >40 % above that offered by rainforests alone. Importantly, we show that in the short-term avoiding emissions through conservation will be necessary for Brazil to achieve it's 2030 climate goal, because it can sequester 1.5 to 4.3 Pg of CO₂e by 2030, relative to 0.127 Pg CO₂e from restoration. However, in the longer term, restoration across all biomes in Brazil could draw down between 3.9 and 9.8 Pg of CO₂e from the atmosphere by 2050 and 2080.

Potential aboveground biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic Forest fragments with climate change

Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the curve > 0.75 and p value < .05). The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGB-up to 40% compared to the baseline-are found between latitudes 13° and 20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary latitudinally for the 2071-2100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil.

Designing an optimized landscape restoration with spatially interdependent non-linear models

Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a biodiversity hotspot drastically fragmented due to different land use practices. Our understanding on the impacts of fragmentation and restoration practices on ecosystem functionality significantly increased during the last decades. However, it is unknown to our knowledge how a precision restoration approach, integrated with landscape metrics, will affect the decision-making process of forest restoration. Here, we applied Landscape Shape Index and Contagion metrics in a genetic algorithm for planning forest restoration in watersheds at the pixel level. We evaluated how such integration may configure the precision of restoration with scenarios related to landscape ecology metrics. The genetic algorithm worked toward optimizing the site, shape, and size of forest patches across the landscape according to the results obtained in applying the metrics. Our results, obtained by simulations of scenarios, support aggregation of forest restoration zones as expected, with priority restoration areas indicated where most of the aggregation of forest patches occurs. Our optimized solutions for the study area (Santa Maria do Rio Doce Watershed) predicted an important improvement of landscape metrics (LSI = 44 %; Contagion/LSI = 73 %). Largest shifts are suggested based on LSI (i.e., three larger fragments) and Contagion/LSI (i.e., only one well-connected fragment) optimizations. Our findings indicate that restoration in an extremely fragmented landscape will promote a shift toward more connected patches and with reduction of the surface:volume ratio. Our work explores the use of genetic algorithms to propose forest restoration based on landscape ecology metrics in a spatially explicit innovative approach. Our results indicate that LSI and Contagion:LSI ratio may affect the choice concerning precise location of restoration sites based on forest fragments scattered in the landscape and reinforce the usefulness of genetic algorithms to yield an optimized-driven solution for restoration initiatives.

Optimal restoration for pollination services increases forest cover while doubling agricultural profits

Pollinators are currently facing dramatic declines in abundance and richness across the globe. This can have profound impacts on agriculture, as 75% of globally common food crops benefit from pollination services. As many native bee species require natural areas for nesting, restoration efforts within croplands may be beneficial to support pollinators and enhance agricultural yields. Yet, restoration can be challenging to implement due to large upfront costs and the removal of land from production. Designing sustainable landscapes will require planning approaches that include the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of pollination services flowing from (restored) vegetation into crops. We present a novel planning framework to determine the best spatial arrangement for restoration in agricultural landscapes while accounting for yield improvements over 40 years following restoration. We explored a range of production and conservation goals using a coffee production landscape in Costa Rica as a case study. Our results show that strategic restoration can increase forest cover by approximately 20% while doubling collective landholder profits over 40 years, even when accounting for land taken out of production. We show that restoration can provide immense economic benefits in the long run, which may be pivotal to motivating local landholders to undertake conservation endeavours in pollinator-dependent croplands.

Potential cultivation areas of Euterpe edulis (Martius) for rainforest recovery, repopulation and açai production in Santa Catarina, Brazil

Euterpe edulis is an endangered palm species that provides the most important non-timber forest product exploited in its natural habitat, the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot^1,4. From 1991 to 2017, pasturelands, agriculture, and monoculture of tree plantations were responsible for 97% of Atlantic Forest deforested areas in Brazil and Santa Catarina was one of the Brazilian states with the greatest loss of forest area¹⁴. In the last decade, E. edulis fruits reached their highest commercial value, producing the southeastern equivalent of Amazonian ''açai'' (Euterpe oleracea)^5,7,8. As a shade-tolerant species, E. edulis adapts very well to agroforestry systems^8,10. To evaluate potential areas for cultivation of E. edulis through agroforestry systems, we developed and applied a spatial model for mapping suitable areas. To accomplish this, we analyzed multisource biophysical data and E. edulis distribution data from the Forest Inventory of Santa Catarina. We identified two areas with potential occurrence of the species, one in the domains of coastal Dense Ombrophilous Forest where the species is more common and another in the domains of inland Deciduous Seasonal Forest where its occurrence was suspected, but not proven, until 2021. Today, Deciduous Seasonal Forest is the most fragmented and impacted by agriculture. Our model, together with confirmed areas of occurrence, indicates that deciduous seasonal forest region should be prioritized for production and recovery of E. edulis through agroforestry systems.

A practice-led assessment of landscape restoration potential in a biodiversity hotspot

Effective restoration planning tools are needed to mitigate global carbon and biodiversity crises. Published spatial assessments of restoration potential are often at large scales or coarse resolutions inappropriate for local action. Using a Tanzanian case study, we introduce a systematic approach to inform landscape restoration planning, estimating spatial variation in cost-effectiveness, based on restoration method, logistics, biomass modelling and uncertainty mapping. We found potential for biomass recovery across 77.7% of a 53 000 km2 region, but with some natural spatial discontinuity in moist forest biomass, that was previously assigned to human causes. Most areas with biomass deficit (80.5%) were restorable through passive or assisted natural regeneration. However, cumulative biomass gains from planting outweighed initially high implementation costs meaning that, where applicable, this method yielded greater long-term returns on investment. Accounting for ecological, funding and other uncertainty, the top 25% consistently cost-effective sites were within protected areas and/or moderately degraded moist forest and savanna. Agro-ecological mosaics had high biomass deficit but little cost-effective restoration potential. Socio-economic research will be needed to inform action towards environmental and human development goals in these areas. Our results highlight value in long-term landscape restoration investments and separate treatment of savannas and forests. Furthermore, they contradict previously asserted low restoration potential in East Africa, emphasizing the importance of our regional approach for identifying restoration opportunities across the tropics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Monitoring recovery of tree diversity during tropical forest restoration: lessons from long-term trajectories of natural regeneration

Given the importance of species diversity as a tool for assessing recovery during forest regeneration and active restoration, robust approaches for assessing changes in tree species diversity over time are urgently needed. We assessed changes in tree species diversity during natural regeneration over 12-20 years in eight 1-ha monitoring plots in NE Costa Rica, six second-growth forests and two old-growth reference forests. We used diversity profiles to show successional trajectories in measures of observed, asymptotic and standardized tree diversity and evenness as well as sample completeness. We randomly subsampled 1-ha plot data to evaluate how well smaller spatial subsamples would have captured temporal trajectories. Annual surveys in eight 1-ha plots were missing substantial numbers of rare or infrequent species. Older second-growth sites showed consistent declines in tree diversity, whereas younger sites showed fluctuating patterns or increases. Subsample areas of 0.5 ha or greater were sufficient to infer the diversity of abundant species, but smaller subsamples failed to capture temporal trajectories of species richness and yielded positively biased estimates of evenness. In tropical forest regions with high levels of diversity, species diversity from small sample plots should be assessed using methods that incorporate abundance information and that standardize for sample coverage. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Below-ground traits mediate tree survival in a tropical dry forest restoration

Reforestation is one of our most promising natural climate solutions, and one that addresses the looming biodiversity crisis. Tree planting can catalyse forest community reassembly in degraded landscapes where natural regeneration is slow, however, tree survival rates vary remarkably across projects. Building a trait-based framework for tree survival could streamline species selection in a way that generalizes across ecosystems, thereby increasing the effectiveness of the global restoration movement. We investigated how traits mediated seedling survival in a tropical dry forest restoration, and how traits were coordinated across plant structures. We examined growth and survival of 14 species for 2 years and measured six below-ground and 22 above-ground traits. Species-level survival ranged widely from 7.8% to 90.1%, and a model including growth rate, below-ground traits and their interaction explained more than 73% of this variation. A strong interaction between below-ground traits and growth rate indicated that selecting species with fast growth rates can promote establishment, but this effect was most apparent for species that invest in thick fine roots and deep root structures. Overall, results emphasize the prominent role of below-ground traits in determining early restoration outcomes, and highlight little above- and below-ground trait coordination, providing a path forward for tropical dry forest restoration efforts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Active versus passive restoration: Forests in the southern Carpathian Mountains as a case study

Active and passive restoration are both increasingly considered as options for nature recovery, with potential to help address the current climate and biodiversity crises. So far, however, there is little practical information on how to gauge the benefits and limitations of each approach, in terms of their effects on large-scale ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning. To address this knowledge gap, this study used satellite remote sensing to investigate changes in land cover and primary productivity within the forests of the Făgăraș Mountains in southern Romania, where large-scale restoration and land abandonment have simultaneously taken place across the past two decades. To our knowledge, this study is the first to contrast the impacts of active and passive restoration within a single landscape on components of ecosystem structure and functioning at such temporal and spatial scales. Results show active restoration activities to be very effective at facilitating the recovery of cleared forests in small parts of the landscapes; but they also highlight substantial areas of natural forest expansion following agricultural abandonment, in line with regional trends. Altogether, our approach clearly illustrates how freely available satellite data can (1) provide vital spatially explicit insights about large-scale and long-term transformations in ecosystem composition, structure and functioning; and (2) help contrast the impacts of restoration approaches on vegetation distribution and dynamics, in ways that complement existing ground-based studies.

Estimates of regeneration potential in the Pannonian sand region help prioritize ecological restoration interventions

Restoration prioritization helps determine optimal restoration interventions in national and regional spatial planning to create sustainable landscapes and maintain biodiversity. Here we investigate different forest-steppe vegetation types in the Pannonian sand region to provide restoration recommendations for conservation management, policy and research. We create spatial trajectories based on local, neighbouring and old-field regeneration capacity estimates of the Hungarian Habitat Mapping Database, compare the trajectories between different mesoregions and determine which environmental predictors possibly influence them at the mesoregion level using a random forest model. The trajectories indicate which types of passive or active restoration intervention are needed, including increasing connectivity, controlling invasive species, or introducing native species. Better restoration results can be achieve in the vicinity of larger (semi-)natural areas, but the specific site conditions must also be taken into account during prioritization. We also propose large-scale grassland restoration on abandoned agricultural fields instead of industrial forest plantations and afforestation with non-native species.

Natural forest regeneration on anthropized landscapes could overcome climate change effects on the endangered maned sloth (Bradypus torquatus, Illiger 1811)

Climate change and habitat loss have been identified as the main causes of species extinction. Forest regeneration and protected areas are essential to buffer climate change impacts and to ensure quality habitats for threatened species. We assessed the current and future environmental suitability for the maned sloth, Bradypus torquatus, under both future climate and forest restoration scenarios, using ecological niche modeling. We compared environmental suitability for two Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUnorth and ESUsouth) using two climate change scenarios for 2070, and three potential forest regeneration scenarios. Likewise, we evaluated the protection degree of the suitable areas resulting from the models, according to Brazilian law: PA—Protected Areas; PPA—Permanent Protection Areas (environmentally sensitive areas in private properties); and LR—Legal Reserves (natural vegetation areas in private properties). Finally, we calculated the deficit of PPA and LR in each ESU, considering the current forest cover. Forest regeneration might mitigate the deleterious effects of climate change by maintaining and increasing environmental suitability in future scenarios. The ESUnorth contains more suitable areas (21,570 km²) than the ESUsouth (12,386 km²), with an increase in all future scenarios (up to 45,648 km² of new suitable areas), while ESUsouth might have a significant decrease (up to 7,546 km² less). Suitable areas are mostly unprotected (ESUnorth—65.5% and ESUsouth—58.3%). Therefore, PPA and PA can maintain only a small portion of current and future suitable areas. Both ESUs present a high deficit of PPA and LR, highlighting the necessity to act in the recovery of these areas to accomplish a large-scale restoration, mitigate climate change effects, and achieve, at least, a minimum forested area to safeguard the species. Notwithstanding, a long-term conservation of B. torquatus will benefit from forest regeneration besides those minimum requirements, allied to the protection of forest areas.

Digitalizing forest landscape restoration: a social and political analysis of emerging technological practices

Digital technologies are increasingly influencing forest landscape restoration practices worldwide. We investigate how digital platforms specifically reconfigure restoration practices, resources, and policy across scales. By analyzing digital restoration platforms, we identify four drivers of technological developments, including: scientific expertise to optimize decisions; capacity building through digital networks; digital tree-planting markets to operate supply chains; and community participation to foster co-creation. Our analysis shows how digital developments transform restoration practices by producing techniques, remaking networks, creating markets, and reorganizing participation. These transformations often involve power imbalances regarding expertise, finance, and politics across the Global North and Global South. However, the distributed qualities of digital systems can also create alternative ways of undertaking restoration actions. We propose that digital developments for restoration should not be understood as neutral tools but rather as power-laden processes that can create, perpetuate, or counteract social and environmental inequalities.

Seizing resilience windows to foster passive recovery in the forest-water interface in Amazonian lands

Forest regeneration has increased in many tropical abandoned lands and current restoration commitments in this region aim to restore over 1,400,000 km² of degraded land by 2030. Although regenerating forests recover biomass, biodiversity, and processes with time, the recovery trajectories may be uncertain due to past disturbances. Currently, there is a lack of knowledge to sustain the effectiveness of passive regeneration for the recovery of riparian forests and the adjacent waterbodies in the tropics, which may compromise the outcomes of ongoing and future tropical riparian restoration programs. We evaluated the drivers of riparian forest structural recovery and how this relates to stream conditions in 12 abandoned pasturelands in eastern Brazilian Amazonia. These pasturelands range across regeneration age (pasture (PA) - 0 to 4 years; young regeneration (YR) - 8 to 12 years; old regeneration (OR) - 18 to 22 years) and years of past land-use (PA - 23.25 average years of past land-use, YR - 18.25, OR - 7). We compared the conditions of these sites to 4 reference sites with conserved forests (REF, >100 years), where there was no recorded pasture use in the past. Short-term responses of forests and streams to passive regeneration indicated high ecosystem resilience after low to intermediate past land-use intensity, reflected in the improvement of stream ecosystems. Such high resilience is possibly attributable to low- to intermediate-intensity pasture-related disturbances, remaining forest matrix, and residual structures (e.g. roots, sprouts, and in-stream wood) observed in the area. Our results suggest a recovery by 12 to 20 years for riparian forests of this region. However, areas degraded by intensive land-use apparently showed delayed recovery. We conclude that seizing resilience windows (defined here as the period when ecosystems retain high potential resilience) is essential to foster passive recovery of riparian forests and streams more cost-effectively in the tropics.

Species-level tree crown maps improve predictions of tree recruit abundance in a tropical landscape

Predicting forest recovery at landscape scales will aid forest restoration efforts. The first step in successful forest recovery is tree recruitment. Forecasts of tree recruit abundance, derived from the landscape-scale distribution of seed sources (i.e., adult trees), could assist efforts to identify sites with high potential for natural regeneration. However, previous work revealed wide variation in the effect of seed sources on seedling abundance, from positive to no effect. We quantified the relationship between adult tree seed sources and tree recruits and predicted where natural recruitment would occur in a fragmented, tropical, agricultural landscape. We integrated species-specific tree crown maps generated from hyperspectral imagery and property ownership data with field data on the spatial distribution of tree recruits from five species. We then developed hierarchical Bayesian models to predict landscape-scale recruit abundance. Our models revealed that species-specific maps of tree crowns improved recruit abundance predictions. Conspecific crown area had a much stronger impact on recruitment abundance (8.00% increase in recruit abundance when conspecific tree density increases from zero to one tree; 95% credible interval (CI): 0.80% to 11.57%) than heterospecific crown area (0.03% increase with the addition of a single heterospecific tree, 95% CI: -0.60% to 0.68%). Individual property ownership was also an important predictor of recruit abundance: The best performing model had varying effects of conspecific and heterospecific crown area on recruit abundance, depending on individual property ownership. We demonstrate how novel remote sensing approaches and cadastral data can be used to generate high-resolution and landscape-level maps of tree recruit abundance. Spatial models parameterized with field, cadastral, and remote sensing data are poised to assist decision support for forest landscape restoration.

Tropical and subtropical Asia's valued tree species under threat

Tree diversity in Asia's tropical and subtropical forests is central to nature-based solutions. Species vulnerability to multiple threats, which affect provision of ecosystem services, is poorly understood. We conducted a region-wide, spatially explicit assessment of the vulnerability of 63 socioeconomically important tree species to overexploitation, fire, overgrazing, habitat conversion, and climate change. Trees were selected for assessment from national priority lists, and selections were validated by an expert network representing 20 countries. We used Maxent suitability modeling to predict species distribution ranges, freely accessible spatial data sets to map threat exposures, and functional traits to estimate threat sensitivities. Species-specific vulnerability maps were created as the product of exposure maps and sensitivity estimates. Based on vulnerability to current threats and climate change, we identified priority areas for conservation and restoration. Overall, 74% of the most important areas for conservation of these trees fell outside protected areas, and all species were severely threatened across an average of 47% of their native ranges. The most imminent threats were overexploitation and habitat conversion; populations were severely threatened by these factors in an average of 24% and 16% of their ranges, respectively. Our model predicted limited overall climate change impacts, although some study species were likely to lose over 15% of their habitat by 2050 due to climate change. We pinpointed specific natural areas in Borneo rain forests as hotspots for in situ conservation of forest genetic resources, more than 82% of which fell outside designated protected areas. We also identified degraded areas in Western Ghats, Indochina dry forests, and Sumatran rain forests as hotspots for restoration, where planting or assisted natural regeneration will help conserve these species, and croplands in southern India and Thailand as potentially important agroforestry options. Our results highlight the need for regionally coordinated action for effective conservation and restoration.

Seed Dispersal Models for Natural Regeneration: A Review and Prospects

Natural regeneration in forest management, which relies on artificial planting, is considered a desirable alternative to reforestation. However, there are large uncertainties regarding the natural regeneration processes, such as seed production, seed dispersal, and seedling establishment. Among these processes, seed dispersal by wind must be modeled accurately to minimize the risks of natural regeneration. This study aimed to (1) review the main mechanisms of seed dispersal models, their characteristics, and their applications and (2) suggest prospects for seed dispersal models to increase the predictability of natural regeneration. With improving computing and observation systems, the modeling technique for seed dispersal by wind has continued to progress steadily from a simple empirical model to the Eulerian-Lagrangian model. Mechanistic modeling approaches with a dispersal kernel have been widely used and have attempted to be directly incorporated into spatial models. Despite the rapid development of various wind-dispersal models, only a few studies have considered their application in natural regeneration. We identified the potential attributes of seed dispersal modeling that cause high uncertainties and poor simulation results in natural regeneration scenarios: topography, pre-processing of wind data, and various inherent complexities in seed dispersal processes. We suggest that seed dispersal models can be further improved by incorporating (1) seed abscission mechanisms by wind, (2) spatiotemporally complex wind environments, (3) collisions with the canopy or ground during seed flight, and (4) secondary dispersal, long-distance dispersal, and seed predation. Interdisciplinary research linking climatology, biophysics, and forestry would help improve the prediction of seed dispersal and its impact on natural regeneration.

Financial Analysis of Potential Carbon Value over 14 Years of Forest Restoration by the Framework Species Method

The carbon storage value of forest restoration, by the framework species method (FSM) in northern Thailand, was assessed for trees (using a partial harvesting technique) and soil and compared with restoration costs. Forest carbon accumulation amounted to 143.08 tC/ha in trees and 8.56 tC/ha in soil over 14 years, with a combined value of USD 27,173.63 (net present value (NPV), discounted at 2.85%/year)) (at the current European carbon credit (EUA) price of 55.98 EUR/tCO2 = 242.21 USD/tC). Restoration costs increased from 2190.27 to 5680.72 USD/ha with declining pre-existing natural regeneration or 3.99–10.34 USD per ton of sequestered CO2. Profits over 14 years ranged in NPV from 22,215.45 to 25,157.04 USD/ha, breaking even from just over 4 years to just under 7, respectively. In contrast, profits from maize cultivation (a major regional deforestation driver) averaged 96.25 USD/ha/year, or just 1347.53 USD/ha over 14 years. Consequently, forest restoration could become a financially attractive alternative land use, provided an open, transparent, carbon market is created. Therefore, this study supports creation of a forest-carbon trading system in Thailand, to incentivize forest restoration and fire prevention, increase farmers’ incomes, reduce smoke-related public health problems, protect watersheds, and conserve biodiversity.

Ephemeral forest regeneration limits carbon sequestration potential in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Although deforestation remains widespread in the tropics, many places are now experiencing significant forest recovery (i.e., forest transition), offering an optimistic outlook for natural ecosystem recovery and carbon sequestration. Naturally regenerated forests, however, may not persist, so a more nuanced understanding of the drivers of forest change in the tropics is critical to ensure the success of reforestation efforts and carbon sequestration targets. Here we use 35 years of detailed land cover data to investigate forest trajectories in 3014 municipalities in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF), a biodiversity and conservation hotspot. Although deforestation was evident in some regions, deforestation reversals, the typical forest transition trajectory, were the prevalent trend in the AF, accounting for 38% of municipalities. However, simultaneous reforestation reversals in the region (13% of municipalities) suggest that these short-term increases in native forest cover do not necessarily translate into persistent trends. In the absence of reversals in reforestation, forests in the region could have sequestered 1.75 Pg C, over three times the actual estimated carbon sequestration (0.52 Pg C). We also showed that failure to distinguish native and planted forests would have masked native forest cover loss in the region and overestimated reforestation by 3.2 Mha and carbon sequestration from natural forest regeneration by 0.37 Pg C. Deforestation reversals were prevalent in urbanized municipalities with limited forest cover and high agricultural productivity, highlighting the importance of favorable socioeconomic conditions in promoting reforestation. Successful forest restoration efforts will require development and enforcement of environmental policies that promote forest regeneration and ensure the permanence of regrowing forests. This is crucial not only for the fate and conservation of the AF, but also for other tropical nations to achieve their restoration and carbon sequestration commitments.

Smart allocation of restoration funds over space and time

A challenge for natural area managers is to ensure that public expenditure on land restoration is cost effective, efficient and transparent but this is difficult to achieve in practice, especially when there are many possible projects across multiple years. Here we develop a "roadmap" for investment in land restoration. It explicitly considers space, time and their interaction, in relation to ecological outcomes and restoration costs (and their variation in time and space). Using integer linear programming optimization in a benefit-cost accounting framework, the roadmap incorporates: transitions between different stages of ecological recovery in a spatial mosaic of multiple ecosystem types; cost schedules associated with managing those transitions over time; time lags between beginning management and achieving outcomes; variations to constraints and goals associated with various factors including site accessibility, specific conservation priorities (such as threatened species or ecosystems); and background environmental trends. This approach enables land managers to: (1) forecast landscape-scale outcomes of management strategies over long timeframes; (2) address the question of how long it will take and how much it will cost to achieve specific outcomes; and (3) explore potential trade-offs in outcomes among alternative management strategies. We illustrate its application using a case study of forest restoration in Australia by a local government authority across a public conservation estate comprising 765 land units of varying size, totaling ˜13,000 ha, across five different floristic vegetation types, with an annual budget of ˜AU$5M, projected over a 50-yr timeframe. These simulations revealed a trade-off between management strategies that seek to increase either the total cover of native forest or the amount of high quality forest: quality-based strategies were favored in scenarios in which shorter term (20-30 yr) timeframes were chosen at the outset, but cover-based strategies were favored if longer time horizons were initially targeted. Projected outcomes were also strongly influenced by assumed background rates of vegetation decline or recovery. Many of the issues in this restoration roadmap are generalizable (even though specific outcomes and trade-offs are likely to vary among case studies), and the approach is both scalable and transferable to other regions and ecosystems.

Upscaling tropical restoration to deliver environmental benefits and socially equitable outcomes

The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration offers immense potential to return hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded tropical landscapes to functioning ecosystems. Well-designed restoration can tackle multiple Sustainable Development Goals, driving synergistic benefits for biodiversity, ecosystem services, agricultural and timber production, and local livelihoods at large spatial scales. To deliver on this potential, restoration efforts must recognise and reduce trade-offs among objectives, and minimize competition with food production and conservation of native ecosystems. Restoration initiatives also need to confront core environmental challenges of climate change and inappropriate planting in savanna biomes, be robustly funded over the long term, and address issues of poor governance, inadequate land tenure, and socio-cultural disparities in benefits and costs. Tackling these issues using the landscape approach is vital to realising the potential for restoration to break the cycle of land degradation and poverty, and deliver on its core environmental and social promises.

Secondary seed removal in a degraded forest habitat in Madagascar

Forest restoration is a prime goal within the 2021-2030 UN "Decade of Ecosystem Resoration". As part of these activities, natural regeneration has to be promoted for biological as well as for economic reasons. For this, the processes of seed dispersal, seed predation and germination have to be understood in the original as well as in degraded vegetation formations. We used seed removal experiments to assess post-dispersal processes that influence recruitment along a gradient of forest degradation in Madagascar analyzing seeds of three animal dispersed tree species. The percentage of seeds consumed or dispersed, declined from forest (28.6%) to degraded forest (17.2%) to savanna (10.8%). Only three out of 1080 seeds were cached and remained intact during the 14-day experiment. All three seeds were cached in the forest habitat and none in the degraded forest and savanna. The low percentage of seeds removed may be due to the lack of endemic rodents caching seeds, as only introduced rats were recorded in the area. The species-poor fauna of potential secondary seed dispersers of the region and especially in the degraded areas might represent an obstacle for diverse regeneration in degraded regions of Madagascar.

Assessing Land Use and Land Cover Change and Farmers’ Perceptions of Deforestation and Land Degradation in South-West Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa

Deforestation and land degradation remain two major economic and environmental threats in Côte d’Ivoire. This study assessed land use and land cover (LULC) change and farmers’ perceptions of the drivers and effects of deforestation and land degradation in south-western Côte d’Ivoire. We used remotely sensed data to determine LULC change trends, and a household survey to collect farmers’ perceptions of deforestation and land degradation. A total of 411 households were interviewed using a structured questionnaire and the focus group discussions involved 25 farmers. Landsat image analysis reported a drastic LULC change and a conversion of forestlands into agriculture from 1987 to 2015 at a rate of 1.44%/year and 3.44%/year for dense forests and degraded forests, respectively. The household survey revealed that the major causes of deforestation perceived by farmers included population growth (79.3%), extensive agriculture (72.9%), migration (54.2%) and logging (47.7%). Land degradation evolved, from a shortened fallow period (46.7%) and an inappropriate application of inputs (31.4%). The perceived major effects linked to deforestation encompassed land degradation (70.6%), loss of biodiversity (63.8%), global warming (56.9%) and loss of livelihood assets (54.3%). Therefore, this study recommends participatory landscape planning, reforestation and capacity building of stakeholders for sustainable intensification of the production systems to reduce LULC challenges for enhanced productive and protective functions of remaining forests.

Ten golden rules for reforestation to optimize carbon sequestration, biodiversity recovery and livelihood benefits

Urgent solutions to global climate change are needed. Ambitious tree-planting initiatives, many already underway, aim to sequester enormous quantities of carbon to partly compensate for anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, which are a major cause of rising global temperatures. However, tree planting that is poorly planned and executed could actually increase CO₂ emissions and have long-term, deleterious impacts on biodiversity, landscapes and livelihoods. Here, we highlight the main environmental risks of large-scale tree planting and propose 10 golden rules, based on some of the most recent ecological research, to implement forest ecosystem restoration that maximizes rates of both carbon sequestration and biodiversity recovery while improving livelihoods. These are as follows: (1) Protect existing forest first; (2) Work together (involving all stakeholders); (3) Aim to maximize biodiversity recovery to meet multiple goals; (4) Select appropriate areas for restoration; (5) Use natural regeneration wherever possible; (6) Select species to maximize biodiversity; (7) Use resilient plant material (with appropriate genetic variability and provenance); (8) Plan ahead for infrastructure, capacity and seed supply; (9) Learn by doing (using an adaptive management approach); and (10) Make it pay (ensuring the economic sustainability of the project). We focus on the design of long-term strategies to tackle the climate and biodiversity crises and support livelihood needs. We emphasize the role of local communities as sources of indigenous knowledge, and the benefits they could derive from successful reforestation that restores ecosystem functioning and delivers a diverse range of forest products and services. While there is no simple and universal recipe for forest restoration, it is crucial to build upon the currently growing public and private interest in this topic, to ensure interventions provide effective, long-term carbon sinks and maximize benefits for biodiversity and people.

Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change

Tropical secondary forests sequester carbon up to 20 times faster than old-growth forests. This rate does not capture spatial regrowth patterns due to environmental and disturbance drivers. Here we quantify the influence of such drivers on the rate and spatial patterns of regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon using satellite data. Carbon sequestration rates of young secondary forests (<20 years) in the west are ~60% higher (3.0 ± 1.0 Mg C ha^-1 yr^-1) compared to those in the east (1.3 ± 0.3 Mg C ha^-1 yr^-1). Disturbances reduce regrowth rates by 8-55%. The 2017 secondary forest carbon stock, of 294 Tg C, could be 8% higher by avoiding fires and repeated deforestation. Maintaining the 2017 secondary forest area has the potential to accumulate ~19.0 Tg C yr^-1 until 2030, contributing ~5.5% to Brazil's 2030 net emissions reduction target. Implementing legal mechanisms to protect and expand secondary forests whilst supporting old-growth conservation is, therefore, key to realising their potential as a nature-based climate solution.

The role of land-use history in driving successional pathways and its implications for the restoration of tropical forests

Secondary forests are increasingly important components of human‐modified landscapes in the tropics. Successional pathways, however, can vary enormously across and within landscapes, with divergent regrowth rates, vegetation structure and species composition. While climatic and edaphic conditions drive variations across regions, land‐use history plays a central role in driving alternative successional pathways within human‐modified landscapes. How land use affects succession depends on its intensity, spatial extent, frequency, duration and management practices, and is mediated by a complex combination of mechanisms acting on different ecosystem components and at different spatial and temporal scales. We review the literature aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying the long‐lasting effects of land use on tropical forest succession and to discuss its implications for forest restoration. We organize it following a framework based on the hierarchical model of succession and ecological filtering theory. This review shows that our knowledge is mostly derived from studies in Neotropical forests regenerating after abandonment of shifting cultivation or pasture systems. Vegetation is the ecological component assessed most often. Little is known regarding how the recovery of belowground processes and microbiota communities is affected by previous land‐use history. In published studies, land‐use history has been mostly characterized by type, without discrimination of intensity, extent, duration or frequency. We compile and discuss the metrics used to describe land‐use history, aiming to facilitate future studies. The literature shows that (i) species availability to succession is affected by transformations in the landscape that affect dispersal, and by management practices and seed predation, which affect the composition and diversity of propagules on site. Once a species successfully reaches an abandoned field, its establishment and performance are dependent on resistance to management practices, tolerance to (modified) soil conditions, herbivory, competition with weeds and invasive species, and facilitation by remnant trees. (ii) Structural and compositional divergences at early stages of succession remain for decades, suggesting that early communities play an important role in governing further ecosystem functioning and processes during succession. Management interventions at early stages could help enhance recovery rates and manipulate successional pathways. (iii) The combination of local and landscape conditions defines the limitations to succession and therefore the potential for natural regeneration to restore ecosystem properties effectively. The knowledge summarized here could enable the identification of conditions in which natural regeneration could efficiently promote forest restoration, and where specific management practices are required to foster succession. Finally, characterization of the landscape context and previous land‐use history is essential to understand the limitations to succession and therefore to define cost‐effective restoration strategies. Advancing knowledge on these two aspects is key for finding generalizable relations that will increase the predictability of succession and the efficiency of forest restoration under different landscape contexts.

Sparing land for secondary forest regeneration protects more tropical biodiversity than land sharing in cattle farming landscapes

Effectively managing farming to meet food demand is vital for the future of biodiversity.^1,2 Increasing yields on existing farmland can allow the abandonment (sparing) of low-yielding areas that subsequently recover as secondary forest.^2-5 A key question is whether such "secondary sparing" conserves biodiversity more effectively than retaining wildlife-friendly habitat within farmland ("land sharing"). Focusing on the Colombian Choco-Andes, a global hotspot of threatened biodiversity,⁶ and on cattle farming, we examined the outcomes of secondary sparing and land sharing via simulated scenarios that maintained constant landscape-wide production and equal within-pasture yield: (1) for species and functional diversity of dung beetles and birds; (2) for avian phylogenetic diversity; and (3) across different stages of secondary forest regeneration, relative to spared primary forests. Sparing older secondary forests (15-30 years recovery) promotes substantial species, functional, and phylogenetic (birds only) diversity benefits for birds and dung beetles compared to land sharing. Species of conservation concern had higher occupancy estimates under land-sparing compared to land-sharing scenarios. Spared secondary forests accumulated equivalent diversity to primary forests for dung beetles within 15 years and within 15-30 years for birds, highlighting the need for longer term protection to maximize the biodiversity gains of secondary sparing. Promoting the recovery and protection of large expanses of secondary forests under the land-sparing model provides a critical mechanism for protecting tropical biodiversity, with important implications for concurrently assisting in the delivery of global targets to restore 350 million hectares of forested landscapes.^7,8.

Hidden destruction of older forests threatens Brazil's Atlantic Forest and challenges restoration programs

Understanding the dynamics of native forest loss and gain is critical for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services, especially in regions experiencing intense forest transformations. We quantified native forest cover dynamics on an annual basis from 1990 to 2017 in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Despite the relative stability of native forest cover during this period (~28 Mha), the ongoing loss of older native forests, mostly on flatter terrains, have been hidden by the increasing gain of younger native forest cover, mostly on marginal lands for mechanized agriculture. Changes in native forest cover and its spatial distribution increased forest isolation in 36.4% of the landscapes. The clearance of older forests associated with the recut of 27% of younger forests has resulted in a progressive rejuvenation of the native forest cover. We highlight the need to include native forest spatiotemporal dynamics into restoration programs to better estimate their expected benefits and unexpected problems.

Payment for Environment Services to Promote Compliance with Brazil’s Forest Code: The Case of “Produtores de Água e Floresta”

Payments for ecosystems services (PES) can promote natural resource conservation by increasing compliance with environmental laws. Law enforcement and PES proponents assume that individuals make decisions about compliance based on expectations of gains, likelihood of being caught in non-compliance, and magnitude of sanctions. Brazil’s Forest Code, characterized by low levels of compliance, includes incentive and disincentive mechanisms. We interviewed landowners in the Atlantic Forest to understand their motivations to participate (or not) in a PES project, the effects of knowledge and perceptions of environmental regulations on compliance, and how both environmental regulations and PES affect land management decision-making. We found that neither expectations of financial gains nor PES payments drive behavioral change and that the perception of systemic corruption reduced compliance with environment regulations. There were important behavioral differences between long-term residents for whom the land is their main source of income and recent residents with little dependence on land-generated income.

Potential impacts of COVID-19 on tropical forest recovery

COVID-19 has impacted humanity and the global environment in myriad ways, and more changes are on the horizon. Here we consider the impact of COVID-19 on our collective ability to restore degraded habitats and facilitate forest recovery in the tropics.

Benchmark maps of 33 years of secondary forest age for Brazil

The restoration and reforestation of 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 are amongst the leading mitigation strategies for reducing carbon emissions within the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution targets assumed under the Paris Agreement. Understanding the dynamics of forest cover, which steeply decreased between 1985 and 2018 throughout Brazil, is essential for estimating the global carbon balance and quantifying the provision of ecosystem services. To know the long-term increment, extent, and age of secondary forests is crucial; however, these variables are yet poorly quantified. Here we developed a 30-m spatial resolution dataset of the annual increment, extent, and age of secondary forests for Brazil over the 1986-2018 period. Land-use and land-cover maps from MapBiomas Project (Collection 4.1) were used as input data for our algorithm, implemented in the Google Earth Engine platform. This dataset provides critical spatially explicit information for supporting carbon emissions reduction, biodiversity, and restoration policies, enabling environmental science applications, territorial planning, and subsidizing environmental law enforcement.