Effects of sea surface warming on marine plankton

Mechanisms of cholera transmission via environment in India and Bangladesh: state of the science review

OBJECTIVES

Cholera has a long history in India and Bangladesh, the region where six out of the past seven global pandemics have been seeded. The changing climate and growing population have led to global cholera cases remaining high despite a consistent improvement in the access to clean water and sanitation. We aim to provide a holistic overview of variables influencing environmental cholera transmission within the context of India and Bangladesh, with a focus on the mechanisms by which they act.

CONTENT

We identified 56 relevant texts (Bangladesh n = 40, India n = 7, Other n = 5). The results of the review found that cholera transmission is associated with several socio-economic and environmental factors, each associated variable is suggested to have at least one mediating mechanism. Increases in ambient temperature and coastal sea surface temperature support cholera transmission via increases in plankton and a preference of Vibrio cholerae for warmer waters. Increased rainfall can potentially support or reduce transmission via several mechanisms.

SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK

Common issues in the literature are co-variance of seasonal factors, limited access to high quality cholera data, high research bias towards research in Dhaka and Matlab (Bangladesh). A specific and detailed understanding of the relationship between SST and cholera incidence remains unclear.

Temperature and nutrients drive distinct successions between diatoms and dinoflagellates over the past 40 years: Implications for climate warming and eutrophication

Diatoms and dinoflagellates are two typical functional groups of phytoplankton, playing important roles in ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycles. Changes in diatoms and dinoflagellates are thought to be one of the possible mechanisms for the increase in harmful algal blooms (HABs), due to changing hydrological conditions associated with climate change and human activities. However, little is known about their ability to adapt to changing ocean environments, thus making it difficult to know whether and how they are adapting. By analyzing a 44-year monitoring dataset in the central Bohai Sea during 1978-2021, we found that the abundance ratio of diatoms to dinoflagellates showed a decreasing trend seasonally and ecologically, indicating that the phytoplankton community underwent distinct successional processes from diatom dominance to diatom-dinoflagellate co-dominance. These processes exhibited varying responses to temperature, nutrient concentrations and ratios, and their interactions, of which temperature primarily drove the seasonal succession whereas nutrients were responsible for the ecological succession. Specifically, diatoms showed a preference for lower temperatures and higher DIP concentrations, and were able to tolerate lower DIN at lower temperatures. In contrast, dinoflagellates tended to prevail at conditions of warming and high N/P ratios. These different traits of diatoms and dinoflagellates reflected the fact that warming as a result of rising temperature and eutrophication as a consequence of nutrient input would favor dinoflagellates over diatoms. Moreover, the increasing dominance of dinoflagellates indicated that dinoflagellate blooms were likely to become more frequent and intense in the central Bohai Sea.

Environmental controls on the seasonal variations of diatoms and dinoflagellates in the Qingdao coastal region, the Yellow Sea

Diatoms and dinoflagellates are two typical functional groups of phytoplankton assemblages, which play a crucial role in the structure and functioning of most marine ecosystems. To date, a novel challenge in ecology and biogeochemistry is to address the influences of environmental changes associated with climate change and human activities on the dynamics of diatoms and dinoflagellates. However, the knowledge of the key environmental factors controlling the diatom-dinoflagellate dynamics remains to be improved, particularly in the coastal ecosystems. Therefore, we conducted four cruises along the Qingdao coastline in spring, summer, autumn, and winter 2022 to explore how diatoms and dinoflagellates varied in response to regional environmental changes. The results showed that the phytoplankton communities were dominated by diatoms and dinoflagellates in terms of abundance and species diversity throughout the year in the study region. Yet, there were significant seasonal variability of diatoms and dinoflagellates across the four seasons. For example, diatom species was the most diverse during autumn, and the higher average abundance was observed in the fall and winter. In contrast, the average abundance of dinoflagellates was maximum during the summer and minimum in the autumn season. Moreover, the abundance and species ratios of diatoms/dinoflagellates (dia/dino) also showed significant seasonal variations in the region. The dia/dino abundance ratio was lowest in summer, while the dia/dino species ratio showed an increasing trend from spring to fall and a slight descending trend during winter. Based on the redundancy analysis, we revealed that diatoms and dinoflagellates responded differently to various environmental variables in different seasons, of which temperature and nutrients (especially dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIN) had highly significant correlations with both the dia/dino abundance and species ratios. Thus, we suggested that temperature and DIN were the key factors controlling the seasonal dynamics of diatoms and dinoflagellates in the Qingdao coastal area.

Warming increases the compositional and functional variability of a temperate protist community

Phototrophic protists are a fundamental component of the world's oceans by serving as the primary source of energy, oxygen, and organic nutrients for the entire ecosystem. Due to the high thermal seasonality of their habitat, temperate protists could harbour many well-adapted species that tolerate ocean warming. However, these species may not sustain ecosystem functions equally well. To address these uncertainties, we conducted a 30-day mesocosm experiment to investigate how moderate (12 °C) and substantial (18 °C) warming compared to ambient conditions (6 °C) affect the composition (18S rRNA metabarcoding) and ecosystem functions (biomass, gross oxygen productivity, nutritional quality - C:N and C:P ratio) of a North Sea spring bloom community. Our results revealed warming-driven shifts in dominant protist groups, with haptophytes thriving at 12 °C and diatoms at 18 °C. Species responses primarily depended on the species' thermal traits, with indirect temperature effects on grazing being less relevant and phosphorus acting as a critical modulator. The species Phaeocystis globosa showed highest biomass on low phosphate concentrations and relatively increased in some replicates of both warming treatments. In line with this, the C:P ratio varied more with the presence of P. globosa than with temperature. Examining further ecosystem responses under warming, our study revealed lowered gross oxygen productivity but increased biomass accumulation whereas the C:N ratio remained unaltered. Although North Sea species exhibited resilience to elevated temperatures, a diminished functional similarity and heightened compositional variability indicate potential ecosystem repercussions for higher trophic levels. In conclusion, our research stresses the multifaceted nature of temperature effects on protist communities, emphasising the need for a holistic understanding that encompasses trait-based responses, indirect effects, and functional dynamics in the face of exacerbating temperature changes.

Impact of persistently high sea surface temperatures on the rhizobiomes of Zostera marina in a Baltic Sea benthocosms

Persistently high marine temperatures are escalating and threating marine biodiversity. The Baltic Sea, warming faster than other seas, is a good model to study the impact of increasing sea surface temperatures. Zostera marina, a key player in the Baltic ecosystem, faces susceptibility to disturbances, especially under chronic high temperatures. Despite the increasing number of studies on the impact of global warming on seagrasses, little attention has been paid to the role of the holobiont. Using an outdoor benthocosm to replicate near-natural conditions, this study explores the repercussions of persistent warming on the microbiome of Z. marina and its implications for holobiont function. Results show that both seasonal warming and chronic warming, impact Z. marina roots and sediment microbiome. Compared with roots, sediments demonstrate higher diversity and stability throughout the study, but temperature effects manifest earlier in both compartments, possibly linked to premature Z. marina die-offs under chronic warming. Shifts in microbial composition, such as an increase in organic matter-degrading and sulfur-related bacteria, accompany chronic warming. A higher ratio of sulfate-reducing bacteria compared to sulfide oxidizers was found in the warming treatment which may result in the collapse of the seagrasses, due to toxic levels of sulfide. Differentiating predicted pathways for warmest temperatures were related to sulfur and nitrogen cycles, suggest an increase of the microbial metabolism, and possible seagrass protection strategies through the production of isoprene. These structural and compositional variations in the associated microbiome offer early insights into the ecological status of seagrasses. Certain taxa/genes/pathways may serve as markers for specific stresses. Monitoring programs should integrate this aspect to identify early indicators of seagrass health. Understanding microbiome changes under stress is crucial for the use of potential probiotic taxa to mitigate climate change effects. Broader-scale examination of seagrass-microorganism interactions is needed to leverage knowledge on host-microbe interactions in seagrasses.

Spring protistan communities in response to warming in the northeastern East China Sea

The northeastern East China Sea is a highly dynamic marine ecosystem influenced by seasonally varying water mass properties. However, despite being among the world's fastest-warming ocean, there has been limited investigation into the impacts of warming on protistan communities. We collected seawater from two stations (E42 and E46) with different natural protist communities and environmental attributes to investigate the acclimation of the two communities to artificially elevated temperatures (ambient T, +2, and +4 °C). Nutrient and Chl-a conditions reflected oceanographic differences, providing insights into protistan community dynamics. Notably, small-sized autotrophic protists prevailed in the phosphate-deficient E42 community, with mid-incubation heterotrophic conversions. Higher temperatures exacerbated the effects of the P deficiency on the E42 community. While the proportions of Bacillariophyta increased only in the nutrient-balanced E46 communities, those of mixotrophic dinoflagellates increased with elevated temperature, regardless of P deficiency, suggesting that mixotrophy likely aids adaptation in changing marine environments. In summary, the findings of this microcosm study illuminate the potential modulation of spring protistan communities in the northeastern East China Sea under anticipated future warming.

Exploring the mesoscale connectivity of phytoplankton periodic assemblages' succession in northern Adriatic pelagic habitats

An appropriate model for phytoplankton distribution patterns is critical for understanding biogeochemical cycles and trophic interactions in the oceans and seas. Because phytoplankton dynamics in coastal waters are more complex due to shallow depth and proximity to land, more accurate models applied to the correct spatial and temporal scales are needed. Our study investigates the role of the atmosphere and hydrosphere in pelagic habitat by modelling phytoplankton assemblages at two Long Term Ecological Research sites in the northern Adriatic Sea using niche-forming environmental variables (wind, temperature, salinity, river discharge, rain, and water column stratification). To study the synchronization between the phytoplankton community and these environmental variables at the two LTER sites, we applied current linear and nonlinear numerical methods for ecological modelling. The aim was to use periodic and/or non-periodic properties of the environmental variables to classify the phytoplankton assemblages at one LTER site (Gulf of Trieste - Slovenia) and then predict them at another LTER site 100 km away (Gulf of Venice - Italy). We found that periodicity played a role in the explanatory and predictive power of the environmental variables and that it was more important than non-periodic events in defining the common structure of the two pelagic habitats. The non-linear classification functions of the neural networks further increased the predictive power of these variables. We observed partial synchronization of communities at the mesoscale and differences between the original and predicted assemblages under similar environmental conditions. We conclude that mesoscale connectivity plays an important role in phytoplankton communities in the northern Adriatic. However, the loss of periodicity of niche-forming variables due to more frequent extreme meteorological and hydrological events could loosen these connections and affect the temporal succession of phytoplankton assemblages.

Governance pathway for coastal eutrophication based on regime shifts in diatom-dinoflagellate composition of the Bohai and Baltic Seas

Regime shifts in the diatom-dinoflagellate composition have occurred in the Baltic Sea (BS) and Bohai Sea (BHS) under eutrophication and have affected the entire coastal ecosystem, damaging the regulatory, provisioning, cultural, and supporting service functions of marine ecosystems. Therefore, finding a solution to restore the balance of phytoplankton community composition and mitigate eutrophication is of utmost importance. In this study, the Driver (per capita gross domestic product)-Pressure (terrestrial inputs)-State (seawater environmental parameters)-Impact (proportions of diatoms and dinoflagellates)-Response (eutrophication governance projects) framework served as a guide for our analysis of the causal relationship among various environmental components in the coastal system. The relevant data in BS and BHS spanning from the 1950s to the 2010s were collected and used to construct a diatom-dinoflagellate composition single index, which allowed us to identify the shifts in regimes (mutation points and phases) of the diatom-dinoflagellate composition and environmental factors using sequential t-test analysis. We also identified key environmental factors that moderated the diatom-dinoflagellate composition using redundancy analysis and analyzed the partial effects of the main environmental factors on the diatom-dinoflagellate composition using a generalized additive model. Finally, the regulation of the eutrophication governance investment on diatom-dinoflagellate composition was investigated. We found that (1) BS is a "time machine," with coastal eutrophication governance and regime shift of diatom-dinoflagellate composition and environmental factors two decades earlier than that in BHS; (2) in BS, the key moderation factor of diatom proportion is SiO3-Si and those of dinoflagellates are sea surface salinity and N:P ratio; in BHS, the key moderation factors of diatom proportion are PO4-P and Si:N ratio and those of dinoflagellate are dissolved inorganic nitrogen and N:P and Si:P ratios; (3) it is projected that BHS will enter its recovery phase from eutrophication after mid-2020s. In summary, the N/P/Si stoichiometric relationships should be given greater consideration, with the exception of the "dose-response" relationship in both sea areas. Our results indicate an urgent need for an improved mechanistic understanding of how phytoplankton biodiversity changes in response to changes in nutrient load and how we should ultimately deal with the challenges that arise.

Transport patterns and hydrodynamic context of the MERITE-HIPPOCAMPE cruise: Implications for contaminants distribution and origin

This study aims at characterizing the hydrodynamic context and transport patterns that prevailed during the MERITE-HIPPOCAMPE cruise to assist in the interpretation of in-situ observations. The main physical attributes and structures (mesoscale eddies as well as fine-scale fronts and filaments) are analyzed based on various physical diagnostics. They were computed from satellite data and data-assimilative model outputs to describe ocean dynamics. The Northern and Algerian Currents were prominent features during the cruise while the western basin is divided by the vertically-tilted Balearic front. Temperature and salinity were used to distinguish different water masses at both surface and sub-surface. Sea-level anomalies, relative vorticity, and Okubo-Weiss parameter distributions have shown the presence of marked eddies around stations St10 and St11. Furthermore, Finite-Size Lyaponuv Exponents revealed that the former was rather located on a fine-scale filament near the edge of a cyclonic eddy while the latter was closer to the core of an anticyclone. Nearshore thermal fronts were detected with the Belkin and O'Reilly Algorithm (BOA), especially around stations St17 and St19. The potential coastal sources of contaminants were tested using Lagrangian Origin Maps (LOM), suggesting that stations St1, St2, St4, St11, and St15 were most likely influenced by coastal waters. Additionally, an atmospheric reanalysis combined with a Lagrangian dispersal model allowed for estimating wet deposition events of contaminants while tracking the fate of water masses where rainfall took place. Finally, we provide a set of explanatory quantitative and qualitative variables for future statistical analyses that aim at explaining the distribution of both chemical and biological samples collected during the cruise.

Meta-analysis reveals responses of coccolithophores and diatoms to warming

A meta-analysis was conducted to explore the effects of warming on the physiological processes of coccolithophores and diatoms by synthesizing a large number of published literatures. A total of 154 studies consisting 301 experiments were synthesized in this study. Under a projected temperature increase of 3-5 °C by IPCC AR6 at the end of this century, our results suggest that the growth and photosynthetic rate of coccolithophores were significantly enhanced by the rising temperature, while the calcification of coccolithophores was only slightly promoted. Warming also had significantly positive effects on the growth but not photosynthesis of diatoms. In comparison, the effect size of warming on the growth rate of coccolithophores was larger than that of diatoms. However, there was no significant effect of warming on either the ratio of particulate inorganic carbon to particulate organic carbon (PIC:POC) of coccolithophores or the ratio of biogenic silica to carbon (BSi:C) of diatoms. Furthermore, the results reveal latitudinal and size-specific patterns of the effect sizes of warming. For diatoms, the effects of warming on growth were more prominent in high latitudes, specifically for the Southern Hemisphere species. In addition, the effect size of warming on the small-sized diatoms was larger than that of the large-sized diatoms. For coccolithophores, the growth of the Southern Hemisphere temperate strains was significantly promoted by warming. Overall, the results based on the meta-analysis indicate that the projected warming of the end of this century will be more favor to the growth of coccolithophores than that of diatoms, thus potentially affect the competitive advantages of coccolithophores over diatoms; while the mid-to high latitude species/strains of both coccolithophores and diatoms will benefit more than their counterparts in the lower latitudes. Therefore, this study offers novel insights into predicting both the inter- and intra-group competitive advantages of diatoms and coccolithophores under the future warming climate change scenario.

Water filtration by endobenthic sandprawns enhances resilience against eutrophication under experimental global change conditions

Identifying processes that confer resilience against global change is a scientific challenge but is central to managing ecosystem functionality in future. Detecting resilience-enhancing mechanisms is especially relevant in coastal ecosystems, where multi-stressor interactions can drive degradation over time. Here, we quantify the resilience-conferring potential of endobenthic sandprawns against eutrophication, including under high temperatures. We show using a global change mesocosm experiment that sandprawn presence was associated with declines in phytoplankton biomass, particularly under eutrophic conditions, where sandprawns reduced phytoplankton biomass by approximately 74% and prevented a shift to extreme eutrophy. Eutrophic waters were nanophytoplankton-dominated, but sandprawn presence countered this, resulting in even contributions of pico- and nanophytoplankton. Our findings highlight the potential for sandprawns to increase resilience against eutrophication by limiting phytoplankton blooms, preventing extreme eutrophy and counteracting nanophytoplankton dominance. Incorporating endobenthic crustaceans into resilience-based management practices can assist in arresting future water quality declines in coastal ecosystems.

The response of zooplankton network indicators to winter water warming using shallow artificial reservoirs as model case study

To predict the most likely scenarios, the consequences of the rise in water surface temperature have been studied using various methods. We tested the hypothesis that winter water warming significantly alters the importance and nature of the relationships in zooplankton communities in shallow reservoirs. These relationships were investigated using network graph analysis for three thermal variants: warm winters (WW), moderate winters (MW) and cold winters (CW). The CW network was the most cohesive and was controlled by eutrophic Rotifera and Copepoda, with a corresponding number of positive and negative interspecific relationships. An increase in water temperature in winter led to a decrease in the centrality of MW and WW networks, and an increase in the importance of species that communicated with the highest number of species in the subnetworks. The WW network was the least cohesive, controlled by psammophilous and phytophilous rotifers, and littoral cladocerans. Adult copepods were not identified in the network and the importance of antagonistic relationships decreased, indicating that the WW network structure was weak and unstable. This study can serve as a model for generalisations of zooplankton community response to the disappearance of long winter periods of low temperatures, as predicted in global climate change projections.

Short-Term Effects of Climate Change on Planktonic Heterotrophic Prokaryotes in a Temperate Coastal Lagoon: Temperature Is Good, Ultraviolet Radiation Is Bad, and CO2 Is Neutral

Planktonic heterotrophic prokaryotes (HProks) are a pivotal functional group in marine ecosystems and are highly sensitive to environmental variability and climate change. This study aimed to investigate the short-term effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2), ultraviolet radiation (UVR), and temperature on natural assemblages of HProks in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon during winter. Two multi-stressor microcosm experiments were used to evaluate the isolated and combined effects of these environmental changes on HProk abundance, production, growth, and mortality rates. The isolated and combined effects of increased CO2 on HProks were not significant. However, HProk production, cellular activity, instantaneous growth rate, and mortality rate were negatively influenced by elevated UVR and positively influenced by warming. Stronger effects were detected on HProk mortality in relation to specific growth rate, leading to higher HProk net growth rates and abundance under elevated UVR and lower values under warming conditions.

Response of phytoplankton community structure to environmental changes in the coastal areas of northern China

In this study, we analyzed high-frequency data pertaining to phytoplankton and environmental factors in Jiaozhou Bay from December 10, 2004, to December 10, 2005 and from July 26, 2020, to August 1, 2021. Compared with 2004-2005, the abundance of phytoplankton during 2020-2021 presented a "two-peak pattern" of annual variation, and the number of species decreased significantly. The ecological types were dominated by eurythermal species, while cold-water species declined. The overall abundance showed a downward trend, and the peak period moved to a time with lower water temperature. This could be attributed to the increase in sea surface temperature. The increase in water temperature and intensification of eutrophication made the emergence of dominant species more inclined to be single; the diversity and stability of the community structure decreased. Generalized additive model (GAM) and network analysis showed that temperature was the main driving factor influencing the phytoplankton community structure, especially during the peak period. In addition, nitrogen and phosphorus were important factors influencing species composition and competitive advantage of phytoplankton.

Functional and structural responses of plankton communities toward consecutive experimental heatwaves in Mediterranean coastal waters

The frequency of marine heatwaves (HWs) is projected to increase in the Mediterranean Sea over the next decades. An in situ mesocosm experiment was performed in a Mediterranean lagoon for 33 days. Three mesocosms were used as controls following the natural temperature of the lagoon. In three others, two HWs of + 5 °C compared to the controls were applied from experimental day (d) 1 to d5 (HW1) and from d11 to d15 (HW2). High-frequency data of oxygen, chlorophyll-a (chl-a), temperature, salinity and light from sensors immersed in all mesocosms were used to calculate gross primary production (GPP), respiration (R) and phytoplankton growth (µ) and loss (L) rates. Nutrients and phytoplankton community structure from pigments were also analyzed. HW1 significantly increased GPP, R, chl-a, µ and L by 7 to 38%. HW2 shifted the system toward heterotrophy by only enhancing R. Thus, the effects of the first HW resulted in the attenuation of those of a second HW on phytoplankton processes, but not on community respiration, which was strongly regulated by temperature. In addition, natural phytoplankton succession from diatoms to haptophytes was altered by both HWs as cyanobacteria and chlorophytes were favored at the expense of haptophytes. These results indicate that HWs have pronounced effects on Mediterranean plankton communities.

Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate

Zooplankton are major consumers of phytoplankton primary production in marine ecosystems. As such, they represent a critical link for energy and matter transfer between phytoplankton and bacterioplankton to higher trophic levels and play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles. In this Review, we discuss key responses of zooplankton to ocean warming, including shifts in phenology, range, and body size, and assess the implications to the biological carbon pump and interactions with higher trophic levels. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps and geographic gaps in monitoring coverage that need to be urgently addressed. We also discuss an integrated sampling approach that combines traditional and novel techniques to improve zooplankton observation for the benefit of monitoring zooplankton populations and modelling future scenarios under global changes.

Temperature-dependent metabolic consequences of food deprivation in the European sardine

Aquatic ecosystems can exhibit seasonal variation in resource availability and animals have evolved to cope with the associated caloric restriction. During winter in the NW Mediterranean Sea, the European sardine Sardina pilchardus naturally experiences caloric restriction owing to a decrease in the diversity and quantity of plankton. However, ongoing global warming has had deleterious effects on plankton communities such that food shortages may occur throughout the year, especially under warm conditions in the summer. We investigated the interactive effects of temperature and food availability on sardine metabolism by continuously monitoring whole-animal respiration of groups of control (fed) and food-deprived sardines over a 60-day experiment in winter (12°C) or summer (20°C) conditions under natural photoperiod. In addition, we measured mitochondrial respiration of red muscle fibres, biometric variables and energy reserves of individuals sampled at 30 and 60 days. This revealed that winter food deprivation elicits energy saving mechanisms at whole animal and cellular levels by maintaining a low metabolism to preserve energy reserves, allowing high levels of survival. By contrast, despite energy saving mechanisms at the mitochondrial level, whole animal metabolic rate was high during food deprivation in summer, causing increased consumption of energy reserves at the muscular level and high mortality after 60 days. Furthermore, a 5-day re-feeding did not improve survival, and mortalities continued, suggesting that long-term food deprivation at high temperatures causes profound stress in sardines that potentially impairs nutrient absorption.

Alterations in hydrological variables and substrate qualities and its impacts on a critical conservation reserve in the southwest coast of India

The present study investigated the long-term fluctuation in the hydrological and substrate variables at different habitats of Kadalundi-Vallikkunnu Community Reserve (KVCR) over the last decade. We hypothesize that natural impact represented by climate change and long-term impact from anthropogenic activities including industrialization and intensified agricultural practices have a direct effect on the natural hydrological cycle and the quality of coastal shores and thus can be a reason for coastal habitat and wildlife degradation. Results indicate a significant degradation in nutrient and organic matter concentration in the sediment and dramatic increase in nutrient concentration, salinity, temperature, and pH in the water. Sediment and water degradation can be one of the important factors affecting the structural quality and biodiversity of the region. Therefore, having long-term monitoring data can be useful to plan and design management and conservation strategies to protect local biodiversity and ecosystem.

Thermotaxic diel vertical migration of the harmful dinoflagellate Cochlodinium (Margalefidinium) polykrikoides: Combined field and laboratory studies

The harmful dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides, a species that causes mass mortality of farmed fish, uses diel vertical migration (DVM) as an ecological strategy. In summer 2018, a bloom of C. polykrikoides occurred on the southern coast of Korea when the surface water temperature exceeded 29 °C, as a result of a marine heatwave. To understand the effect of high temperature conditions on the DVM of C. polykrikoides, vertical profiles of environmental variables and the occurrence of the dinoflagellate were investigated through a 48 h field survey. In addition, a thermally stratified environment (6-12 °C difference between the surface and bottom layers) was established in a laboratory study to investigate the effect of temperature difference between water layers on the DVM of C. polykrikoides. In the field, most of the C. polykrikoides population was at a depth of 3-6 m during the day, where the water temperature was significantly lower (p < 0.01; Chi square = 57.98; Kruskal-Wallis test) than in the surface layer (0 m), and only the water temperature at 0 m was not correlated with weighted mean depth of C. polykrikoides, suggesting the usage of DVM to avoid high temperature stress. According to our field and laboratory results, there was a trend of greater DVM velocity by thermotaxis when moving from "unfavorable" water temperature (30 °C hot and 12 °C cold) to "favorable" water temperature for growth (optimal 24 °C) of C. polykrikoides. Our findings suggest that thermotaxic DVM is an important ecological strategy used by C. polykrikoides to optimize environmental conditions for growth through vertical positioning and changing migration velocity.

Predicting the effects of winter water warming in artificial lakes on zooplankton and its environment using combined machine learning models

This work deals with the consequences of climate warming on aquatic ecosystems. The study determined the effects of increased water temperatures in artificial lakes during winter on predicting changes in the biomass of zooplankton taxa and their environment. We applied an innovative approach to investigate the effects of winter warming on zooplankton and physico-chemical factors. We used a modelling scheme combining hierarchical clustering, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithms. Under the influence of increased water temperatures in winter, weight- and frequency-dominant Crustacea taxa such as Daphnia cucullata, Cyclops vicinus, Cryptocyclops bicolor, copepodites and nauplii, and the Rotifera: Polyarthra longiremis, Trichocerca pusilla, Keratella quadrata, Asplanchna priodonta and Synchaeta spp. tend to decrease their biomass. Under the same conditions, Rotifera: Lecane spp., Monommata maculata, Testudinella patina, Notholca squamula, Colurella colurus, Trichocerca intermedia and the protozoan species Centropyxis acuelata and Arcella discoides with lower size and abundance responded with an increase in biomass. Decreases in chlorophyll a, suspended solids and total nitrogen were predicted due to winter warming. Machine learning ensemble models used in innovative ways can contribute to the research utility of studies on the response of ecological units to environmental change.

Climate Change Impacts on the Marine Cycling of Biogenic Sulfur: A Review

A key component of the marine sulfur cycle is the climate-active gas dimethylsulfide (DMS), which is synthesized by a range of organisms from phytoplankton to corals, and accounts for up to 80% of global biogenic sulfur emissions. The DMS cycle starts with the intracellular synthesis of the non-gaseous precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), which is released to the water column by various food web processes such as zooplankton grazing. This dissolved DMSP pool is rapidly turned over by microbially mediated conversion using two known pathways: demethylation (releasing methanethiol) and cleavage (producing DMS). Some of the formed DMS is ventilated to the atmosphere, where it undergoes rapid oxidation and contributes to the formation of sulfate aerosols, with the potential to affect cloud microphysics, and thus the regional climate. The marine phase cycling of DMS is complex, however, as heterotrophs also contribute to the consumption of the newly formed dissolved DMS. Interestingly, due to microbial consumption and other water column sinks such as photolysis, the amount of DMS that enters the atmosphere is currently thought to be a relatively minor fraction of the total amount cycled through the marine food web—less than 10%. These microbial processes are mediated by water column temperature, but the response of marine microbial assemblages to ocean warming is poorly characterized, although bacterial degradation appears to increase with an increase in temperature. This review will focus on the potential impact of climate change on the key microbially mediated processes in the marine cycling of DMS. It is likely that the impact will vary across different biogeographical regions from polar to tropical. For example, in the rapidly warming polar oceans, microbial communities associated with the DMS cycle will likely change dramatically during the 21st century with the decline in sea ice. At lower latitudes, where corals form an important source of DMS (P), shifts in the microbiome composition have been observed during thermal stress with the potential to alter the DMS cycle.

Metabolic responses of plankton to warming during different productive seasons in coastal Mediterranean waters revealed by in situ mesocosm experiments

The response of coastal lagoon plankton communities to warming was studied during two in situ mesocosm experiments in spring and fall of 2018 in the Mediterranean. Phytoplankton biomass, gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (R), phytoplankton growth (µ), and loss (l) rates were estimated using high-frequency chlorophyll-a fluorescence and dissolved oxygen sensors, and daily sampling was used to evaluate the nutrient status and phytoplankton pigment functional groups. Warming strongly depressed the dominant phytoplankton functional groups, mainly the prymnesiophytes, diatoms (spring), and green flagellates (fall). It favored minor groups such as the dinoflagellates (spring) and diatoms (fall). In spring, warming depressed GPP and R by half; however, µ (+ 18%) and l (+ 37%) were enhanced. In contrast, both GPP and µ were enhanced by 21% and 28%, respectively, in fall, and no effects were observed for R and l. Warming strongly decreased phytoplankton biomass and oxygen production in spring, and enhanced them, to a lesser extent, in fall. This led to an overall loss of production over both seasons. This study improves understanding of the contrasting effects of warming during two productive seasons, which depend on plankton community composition and interactions between components and environmental conditions.

Effects of exposure to elevated temperature and different food levels on the escape response and metabolism of early life stages of white seabream, Diplodus sargus

Recent literature suggests that anthropogenic stressors can disrupt ecologically relevant behaviours in fish, such as the ability to escape from predators. Disruption of these behaviours at critical life history transitions, such as the transition from the pelagic environment to the juvenile/adult habitat, may have even greater repercussions. The literature suggests that an increase in temperature can affect fish escape response, as well as metabolism; however, few studies have focused on the acute sensitivity responses and the potential for acclimation through developmental plasticity. Here, we aimed at evaluating the acute and long-term effects of exposure to warming conditions on the escape response and routine metabolic rate (RMR) of early life stages of the white seabream, Diplodus sargus. Additionally, as food availability may modulate the response to warming, we further tested the effects of long-term exposure to high temperature and food shortage, as individual and interacting drivers, on escape response and RMR. Temperature treatments were adjusted to ambient temperature (19°C) and a high temperature (22°C). Feeding treatments were established as high ration and low ration (50% of high ration). Escape response and RMR were measured after the high temperature was reached (acute exposure) and after 4 weeks (prolonged exposure). Acute warming had a significant effect on escape response and generated an upward trend in RMR. In the long term, however, there seems to be an acclimation of the escape response and RMR. Food shortage, interacting with high temperature, led to an increase in latency response and a significant reduction in RMR. The current study provides relevant experimental data on fishes' behavioural and physiological responses to the combined effects of multiple stressors. This knowledge can be incorporated in recruitment models, thereby contributing to fine-tuning of models required for fisheries management and species conservation.

The impact of long-term environmental change on zooplankton along the southwestern coast of India

Environmental pollution and climate change are causing major changes in the marine environment. Coastal zones around the world are experiencing changes such as nutrient influx, resulting in altered plankton communities. The aim of this study was to determine the response of zooplankton to the changes in the environmental variables in the coastal zone of the Arabian Sea, Southwest Coast of India, over 10 years. Zooplankton abundance, chlorophyll-a concentrations, and water quality variables (rainfall, nitrates, phosphates, pH, water temperature, and salinity) were quantified from January 2010 to December 2019. Water temperature, pH, salinity, and phosphates increased steadily across the sites during the study period whereas chlorophyll-a and nitrates decreased. Rainfall abundance was not exhibiting any patterns or trends. The effects of the sampled environmental variables on zooplankton abundance were tested using generalized linear mixed models. Salinity and phosphates negatively affected the zooplankton abundance whereas water temperature, pH, and chlorophyll-a concentration had a positive effect. Coastal zones in southwest India are experiencing declining phytoplankton abundance due to a number of environmental factors. Reduced phytoplankton combined with altered environmental variables are having declining effects on zooplankton. This decline in zooplankton population has far reaching effects on biota in higher trophic levels including economically important organisms such as fishes.

Maintenance of Intraspecific Diversity in Response to Species Competition and Nutrient Fluctuations

Intraspecific diversity is a substantial part of biodiversity, yet little is known about its maintenance. Understanding mechanisms of intraspecific diversity shifts provides realistic detail about how phytoplankton communities evolve to new environmental conditions, a process especially important in times of climate change. Here, we aimed to identify factors that maintain genotype diversity and link the observed diversity change to measured phytoplankton morpho-functional traits Vmax and cell size of the species and genotypes. In an experimental setup, the two phytoplankton species Emiliania huxleyi and Chaetoceros affinis, each consisting of nine genotypes, were cultivated separately and together under different fluctuation and nutrient regimes. Their genotype composition was assessed after 49 and 91 days, and Shannon's diversity index was calculated on the genotype level. We found that a higher intraspecific diversity can be maintained in the presence of a competitor, provided it has a substantial proportion to total biovolume. Both fluctuation and nutrient regime showed species-specific effects and especially structured genotype sorting of C. affinis. While we could relate species sorting with the measured traits, genotype diversity shifts could only be partly explained. The observed context dependency of genotype maintenance suggests that the evolutionary potential could be better understood, if studied in more natural settings including fluctuations and competition.

Phytoplankton Pigments Reveal Size Structure and Interannual Variability of the Coastal Phytoplankton Community (Adriatic Sea)

In coastal seas, a variety of environmental variables characterise the average annual pattern of the physico-chemical environment and influence the temporal and spatial variations of phytoplankton communities. The aim of this study was to track the annual and interannual variability of phytoplankton biomass in different size classes in the Gulf of Trieste (Adriatic Sea) using phytoplankton pigments. The seasonal pattern of phytoplankton size classes showed a co-dominance of the nano and micro fractions during the spring peak and a predominance of the latter during the autumn peak. The highest picoplankton values occurred during the periods with the lowest total phytoplankton biomass, with chlorophytes dominating during the colder months and cyanobacteria during the summer. The highest number of significant correlations was found between phytoplankton taxa and size classes and temperature, nitrate and nitrite. The most obvious trend observed over the time series was an increase in picoplankton in all water layers, with the most significant trend in the bottom layer. Nano- and microplankton showed greater variation in biomass, with a decrease in nanoplankton biomass in 2011 and 2012 and negative trend in microplankton biomass in the bottom layer. These results suggest that changes in trophic relationships in the pelagic food web may also have implications for biogeochemical processes in the coastal sea.

Bottom-Heavy Trophic Pyramids Impair Methylmercury Biomagnification in the Marine Plankton Ecosystems

Methylmercury (CH₃Hg⁺, MMHg) in the phytoplankton and zooplankton, which form the bottom of marine food webs, is a good predictor of MMHg in top predators, including humans. Therefore, evaluating the potential exposure of MMHg to higher trophic levels (TLs) requires a better understanding of relationships between MMHg biomagnification and plankton dynamics. In this study, a coupled ecological/physical model with 366 plankton types of different sizes, biogeochemical functions, and temperature tolerance is used to simulate the relationships between MMHg biomagnification and the ecosystem structure. The study shows that the MMHg biomagnification becomes more significant with increasing TLs. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs) in the lowest two TLs show the opposite spatial pattern to TMFs in higher TLs. The low TMFs are usually associated with a short food-chain length. The less bottom-heavy trophic pyramids in the oligotrophic oceans enhance the MMHg trophic transfer. The global average TMF is increased from 2.3 to 2.8 in the warmer future with a medium climate sensitivity of 2.5 °C. Our study suggests that if there are no mitigation measures for Hg emission, MMHg in the high-trophic-level plankton is increased more dramatically in the warming future, indicating greater MMHg exposure for top predators such as humans.

Composition and Dominance of Edible and Inedible Phytoplankton Predict Responses of Baltic Sea Summer Communities to Elevated Temperature and CO2

Previous studies with Baltic Sea phytoplankton combining elevated seawater temperature with CO₂ revealed the importance of size trait-based analyses, in particular dividing the plankton into edible (>5 and <100 µm) and inedible (<5 and >100 µm) size classes for mesozoopankton grazers. While the edible phytoplankton responded predominantly negative to warming and the inedible group stayed unaffected or increased, independent from edibility most phytoplankton groups gained from CO₂. Because the ratio between edible and inedible taxa changes profoundly over seasons, we investigated if community responses can be predicted according to the prevailing composition of edible and inedible groups. We experimentally explored the combined effects of elevated temperatures and CO₂ concentrations on a late-summer Baltic Sea community. Total phytoplankton significantly increased in response to elevated CO₂ in particular in combination with temperature, driven by a significant gain of the inedible <5 µm fraction and large filamentous cyanobacteria. Large flagellates disappeared. The edible group was low as usual in summer and decreased with both factors due to enhanced copepod grazing and overall decline of small flagellates. Our results emphasize that the responses of summer communities are complex, but can be predicted by the composition and dominance of size classes and groups.

Responses of Marine Diatom-Dinoflagellate Competition to Multiple Environmental Drivers: Abundance, Elemental, and Biochemical Aspects

Ocean-related global change has strongly affected the competition between key marine phytoplankton groups, such as diatoms and dinoflagellates, especially with the deleterious consequency of the increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms. The dominance of diatoms generally shifts toward that of dinoflagellates in response to increasing temperature and reduced nutrient availability; however, contradictory findings have also been observed in certain sea areas. A key challenge in ecology and biogeochemistry is to quantitatively determine the effects of multiple environmental factors on the diatom-dinoflagellate community and the related changes in elemental and biochemical composition. Here, we test the interplay between temperature, nutrient concentrations and their ratios on marine diatom-dinoflagellate competition and chemical composition using bi-algal competition experiments. The ubiquitous diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum and dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum were cultivated semi-continuously, provided with different N and P concentrations (three different levels) and ratios (10:1, 24:1, and 63:1 molar ratios) under three temperatures (12, 18, and 24°C). The responses of diatom-dinoflagellate competition were analyzed by a Lotka-Volterra model and quantified by generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). The changes in nutrient concentrations significantly affected diatom-dinoflagellate competition, causing a competitive superiority of the diatoms at high nutrient concentrations, independent of temperature and N:P supply ratios. Interestingly, the effect amplitude of nutrient concentrations varied with different temperatures, showing a switch back toward a competitive superiority of the dinoflagellates at the highest temperature and at very high nutrient concentrations. The ratios of particulate organic nitrogen to phosphorus showed significant negative correlations with increasing diatoms/dinoflagellates ratios, while lipid biomarkers (fatty acids and sterols) correlated positively with increasing diatoms/dinoflagellates ratios over the entire ranges of temperature, N and P concentrations and N:P ratios. Our results indicate that the integration of phytoplankton community structure and chemical composition provides an important step forward to quantitatively understand and predict how phytoplankton community changes affect ecosystem functions and biogeochemical cycles in the ocean.

Meta-analysis of the response of marine phytoplankton to nutrient addition and seawater warming

As an indispensable part of the marine ecosystem, phytoplankton are important prey for zooplankton and various marine animals with important commercial value. The influence of seawater warming and eutrophication on phytoplankton communities is well known, but few studies have explained the effects of the interaction between temperature and nutrients on marine phytoplankton. Through meta-analysis and meta-regression, the phytoplankton responses to the effects of nutrient addition and seawater warming were evaluated in this study. Nitrogen (N) addition led to an increase in phytoplankton biomass, while phosphorus (P) had no significant effect on phytoplankton biomass. However, this result may be biased by the uneven distribution of the research area. N limitation is widespread in the areas where these collected studies were conducted, including many parts of North and South Atlantic and West Pacific Oceans. The key limiting nutrient in other areas lacking corresponding experiments, however, remain unclear. The effect of seawater warming was not significant, which indicates the uncertainty about the effect of temperature on phytoplankton. The results of ANOVA show that nutrient addition and seawater warming had similar effects in various marine habitats (coastal regions, estuaries and open seas), while salinity could have caused the difference in the N effects among the three habitats. Furthermore, our results showed that the impact of temperature depends on nutrient conditions, especially N status, which has rarely been considered before. This result demonstrated the importance of evaluating nutrient limitation patterns when studying climate warming. The impact of rising temperatures may need to be reevaluated because N limitation is common.

Intraspecific variability in the filter mesh size of suspension feeding organisms: the case of invasive Ponto-Caspian corophiids (Crustacea: Amphipoda)

Suspension feeders play pivotal roles in the nutrient cycling of almost all aquatic ecosystems. Since sufficiently large differences in the filter mesh size (FMS) can lead to different food web positions, the inter- and intraspecific variability of this trait might be of community-level importance. The aim of this study was to quantify the range of FMS variation within the three invasive Ponto-Caspian Chelicorophium species based on a large material representing various conditions (1,224 specimens from 40 samples across Central Europe), characterize the components of variation within populations, identify the main factors determining intraspecific differences, and reveal how intraspecific variation affects the FMS overlaps among species. The FMS of the most widespread invader, C. curvispinum, varied within the broadest range (between 2.34–8.28 μm, compared to 2.51–5.97 μm in C. robustum and 1.08–3.23 μm in C. sowinskyi); nevertheless, the contribution of intraspecific plasticity to the invasion success of the species is not evident based on the present study. The within-individual variability of FMS increased with the individual mean of the trait and decreased with body size; however, it showed little differences among samples. The among-individual variation within samples could be partitioned into components related to body size (ontogenetic niche shift/differences among cohorts) and sex (ecological sexual dimorphism) as well as a seemingly random component (individual specialization), varying widely in extent and relative contributions. The FMS of C. curvispinum was significantly larger in the presence of C. sowinskyi than in allopatry, likely reflecting character displacement; however, it did not show further increase when C. robustum was also present. Similar differences could not be observed in C. sowinskyi. The FMS ranges of C. curvispinum and C. robustum never overlapped with that of C. sowinskyi in co-occurrence despite the considerable intraspecific differences among sites, suggesting that their interaction can be seen as a clear case of niche differentiation by food particle size. On the contrary, the strong overlaps observed between C. curvispinum and C. robustum indicate that other factors might play the primary role in their coexistence. The studied species appear to be suitable model organisms for identifying the drivers and mechanisms of FMS variability.

On the robustness of an eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem exposed to multiple stressors

The resistance of an east border upwelling system was investigated using relative index of marine pelagic biomass estimates under a changing environment spanning 20-years in the strongly exploited southern Canary Current Large marine Ecosystem (sCCLME). We divided the sCCLME in two parts (north and south of Cap Blanc), based on oceanographic regimes. We delineated two size-based groups (“plankton” and “pelagic fish”) corresponding to lower and higher trophic levels, respectively. Over the 20-year period, all spatial remote sensing environmental variables increased significantly, except in the area south of Cap Blanc where sea surface Chlorophyll-a concentrations declined and the upwelling favorable wind was stable. Relative index of marine pelagic abundance was higher in the south area compared to the north area of Cap Blanc. No significant latitudinal shift to the mass center was detected, regardless of trophic level. Relative pelagic abundance did not change, suggesting sCCLME pelagic organisms were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Despite strong annual variability and the presence of major stressors (overfishing, climate change), the marine pelagic ressources, mainly fish and plankton remained relatively stable over the two decades, advancing our understanding on the resistance of this east border upwelling system.

Effects of Temperature and Nutrient Supply on Resource Allocation, Photosynthetic Strategy, and Metabolic Rates of Synechococcus sp

Temperature and nutrient supply are key factors that control phytoplankton ecophysiology, but their role is commonly investigated in isolation. Their combined effect on resource allocation, photosynthetic strategy, and metabolism remains poorly understood. To characterize the photosynthetic strategy and resource allocation under different conditions, we analyzed the responses of a marine cyanobacterium (Synechococcus PCC 7002) to multiple combinations of temperature and nutrient supply. We measured the abundance of proteins involved in the dark (RuBisCO, rbcL) and light (Photosystem II, psbA) photosynthetic reactions, the content of chlorophyll a, carbon and nitrogen, and the rates of photosynthesis, respiration, and growth. We found that rbcL and psbA abundance increased with nutrient supply, whereas a temperature-induced increase in psbA occurred only in nutrient-replete treatments. Low temperature and abundant nutrients caused increased RuBisCO abundance, a pattern we observed also in natural phytoplankton assemblages across a wide latitudinal range. Photosynthesis and respiration increased with temperature only under nutrient-sufficient conditions. These results suggest that nutrient supply exerts a stronger effect than temperature upon both photosynthetic protein abundance and metabolic rates in Synechococcus sp. and that the temperature effect on photosynthetic physiology and metabolism is nutrient dependent. The preferential resource allocation into the light instead of the dark reactions of photosynthesis as temperature rises is likely related to the different temperature dependence of dark-reaction enzymatic rates versus photochemistry. These findings contribute to our understanding of the strategies for photosynthetic energy allocation in phytoplankton inhabiting contrasting environments.

Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming

Although extinctions due to climate change are still uncommon, they might surpass those caused by habitat loss or overexploitation over the next few decades. Among marine megafauna, mammals fulfill key and irreplaceable ecological roles in the ocean, and the collapse of their populations may therefore have irreversible consequences for ecosystem functioning and services. Using a trait-based approach, we assessed the vulnerability of all marine mammals to global warming under high and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the middle and the end of the 21^st century. We showed that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming. Future conservation plans should therefore focus on these regions, where there are long histories of overexploitation and there are high levels of current threats to marine mammals. Among the most vulnerable marine mammals were several threatened species, such as the North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica) and the dugong (Dugong dugon), that displayed unique combinations of functional traits. Beyond species loss, we showed that the potential extinctions of the marine mammals that were most vulnerable to global warming might induce a disproportionate loss of functional diversity, which may have profound impacts on the future functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide.

Abrupt declines in marine phytoplankton production driven by warming and biodiversity loss in a microcosm experiment

Rising sea surface temperatures are expected to lead to the loss of phytoplankton biodiversity. However, we currently understand very little about the interactions between warming, loss of phytoplankton diversity and its impact on the oceans' primary production. We experimentally manipulated the species richness of marine phytoplankton communities under a range of warming scenarios, and found that ecosystem production declined more abruptly with species loss in communities exposed to higher temperatures. Species contributing positively to ecosystem production in the warmed treatments were those that had the highest optimal temperatures for photosynthesis, implying that the synergistic impacts of warming and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning were mediated by thermal trait variability. As species were lost from the communities, the probability of taxa remaining that could tolerate warming diminished, resulting in abrupt declines in ecosystem production. Our results highlight the potential for synergistic effects of warming and biodiversity loss on marine primary production.

Responses of marine phytoplankton communities to environmental changes: New insights from a niche classification scheme

Predicting changes of phytoplankton communities in response to global warming is one of the challenges of ecological forecasting. One of the constraints is the paucity of general principles applicable to community ecology. Based on a synecological analysis of a decadal-scale database, we created a niche habitat classification scheme relating nine phytoplankton groups to fifteen statistically refined realized niches comprised of three niche dimensions: temperature, irradiance, and nitrate concentrations. The niche scheme assigned the nine phytoplankton groups to three types of niches: a cold type, a warm type, and a type associated with high irradiance and high nitrate concentrations. The fact that phytoplankton groups in cold niches were governed by irradiance and those in warm niches by nitrate is consistent with general ecological theories, but the fact that diatoms were the only dominant group in high-irradiance, high-nitrate niches challenges the idea based on autecological studies that diatoms are generally better adapted to low-irradiance, high-nutrient conditions. When combined with an irradiance model, the niche scheme revealed that photoinhibition of Prochlorococcus, which is predicted from autecological studies, is a function of temperature. We used the niche scheme to predict the responses of phytoplankton communities to environmental changes due to seawater warming and eutrophication. The results of the study suggest that a synecological analysis of large databases from field studies facilitates identification of general principles of community ecology that can be used to forecast responses of biological communities to environmental changes.

Zooplankton grazing pressure is insufficient for primary producer control under elevated warming and nutrient levels

Within a given ecosystem, species persistence is driven by responses to the effects of biotic and abiotic stressors. Ongoing climatic shifts and increased pollution pressure have created the need to assess potential effects and interactions of physical and biotic factors on coastal ecosystem processes to project ecosystem resilience and persistence. In coastal marine environments, primary production dynamics are driven by the interaction between bottom-up abiotic effects and biotic effects induced by top-down trophic control. Given the many environmental and climatic changes observed throughout coastal regions, we assessed the effects of interactions among temperature, nutrients and grazing in a laboratory-based microcosm experiment. We did this by comparing chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations at two temperatures in combination with four nutrient regimes. To test for subsequent cascading effects on higher trophic levels, we also measured grazing and growth rates of the calanoid copepod Pseudodiaptomus hessei. We observed different phytoplankton and zooplankton responses to temperature (17 °C, 24 °C) and nutrients (nitrogen only (N), phosphates only (P), nitrogen and phosphates combined (NP), no nutrient additions (C)). Contributions of predictors to model fit in the boosted regression trees model were phosphates (42.7%), copepods (23.8%), nitrates (17.5%) and temperature (15.9%), suggesting phosphates were an important driver for the high chl-a concentrations observed. There was an increase in total phytoplankton biomass across both temperatures, while nutrient addition affected the phytoplankton size structure prior to grazing irrespective of temperature. Phytoplankton biomass was highest in the NP treatment followed by the N treatment. However, the phytoplankton size structure differed between temperatures, with microphytoplankton being dominant at 24 °C, while nanophytoplankton dominated at 17 °C. The P and C treatments exhibited the lowest phytoplankton biomass. Copepod abundances and growth rates were higher at 17 °C than at 24 °C. This study highlights that bottom-up positive effects in one trophic level do not always positively cascade into another trophic level. It was, however, evident that temperature was a limiting factor for plankton abundance, productivity and size structure only when nutrients were limiting, with top-down pressure exhibiting minimal effects on the phytoplankton.

Bottom-up and top-down effects of browning and warming on shallow lake food webs

Productivity and trophic structure of aquatic ecosystems result from a complex interplay of bottom-up and top-down forces that operate across benthic and pelagic food web compartments. Projected global changes urge the question how this interplay will be affected by browning (increasing input of terrestrial dissolved organic matter), nutrient enrichment and warming. We explored this with a process-based model of a shallow lake food web consisting of benthic and pelagic components (abiotic resources, primary producers, grazers, carnivores), and compared model expectations with the results of a browning and warming experiment in nutrient-poor ponds harboring a boreal lake community. Under low nutrient conditions, the model makes three major predictions. (a) Browning reduces light and increases nutrient supply; this decreases benthic and increases pelagic production, gradually shifting productivity from the benthic to the pelagic habitat. (b) Because of active habitat choice, fish exert top-down control on grazers and benefit primary producers primarily in the more productive of the two habitats. (c) Warming relaxes top-down control of grazers by fish and decreases primary producer biomass, but effects of warming are generally small compared to effects of browning and nutrient supply. Experimental results were consistent with most model predictions for browning: light penetration, benthic algal production, and zoobenthos biomass decreased, and pelagic nutrients and pelagic algal production increased with browning. Also consistent with expectations, warming had negative effects on benthic and pelagic algal biomass and weak effects on algal production and zoobenthos and zooplankton biomass. Inconsistent with expectations, browning had no effect on zooplankton and warming effects on fish depended on browning. The model is applicable also to nutrient-rich systems, and we propose that it is a useful tool for the exploration of the consequences of different climate change scenarios for productivity and food web dynamics in shallow lakes, the worldwide most common lake type.

Trophic switches in pelagic systems

Ecological studies need experimentation to test concepts and to disentangle causality in community dynamics. While simple models have given substantial insights into population and community dynamics, recent ecological concepts become increasingly complex. The globally important pelagic food web dynamics are well suited to test complex ecological concepts. For instance, trophic switches of individual organisms within pelagic food webs can elongate food webs or shift the balance between autotroph and heterotroph carbon fluxes. Here, we summarize results from mesocosm experiments demonstrating how environmental drivers result in trophic switches of marine phytoplankton and zooplankton communities. Such mesocosm experiments are useful to develop and test complex ecological concepts going beyond trophic level-based analyses, including diversity, individual behavior, and environmental stochasticity.

Effects of warming and eutrophication on coastal phytoplankton production

Phytoplankton production in coastal waters influences seafood production and human health and can lead to harmful algal blooms. Water temperature and eutrophication are critical factors affecting phytoplankton production, although the combined effects of warming and nutrient changes on phytoplankton production in coastal waters are not well understood. To address this, phytoplankton production changes in natural waters were investigated using samples collected over eight months, and under 64 different initial conditions, established by combining four different water temperatures (i.e., ambient T, +2, +4, and + 6 °C), and two different nutrient conditions (i.e., non-enriched and enriched). Under the non-enriched conditions, the effect of warming on phytoplankton production was significantly positive in some months, significantly negative in others, or had no effect. However, under enriched conditions, warming affected phytoplankton production positively in all months except one, when the salinity was as low as 6.5. These results suggest that nutrient conditions can alter the effects of warming on phytoplankton production. Of several parameters, the ratio of initial nitrate concentration to chlorophyll a concentration [NCCA, μM (μg L^-1)^-1] was one of the most critical factors determining the directionality of the warming effects. In laboratory experiments, when NCCA in the ambient or nutrient-enriched waters was ≥1.2, warming increased or did not change phytoplankton production with one exception; however, when NCCA was <1.2, warming did not change or decreased production. In the time series data obtained from the coastal waters of four target countries, when NCCA was 1.5 or more, warming increased phytoplankton production, whereas when NCCA was lower than 1.5, warming lowered phytoplankton production, Thus, it is suggested that NCCA could be used as an index for predicting future phytoplankton production changes in coastal waters.

Feeding response of the tropical copepod Acartia erythraea to short-term thermal stress: more animal-derived food was consumed

The objective of this study was to explore the feeding response of tropical copepods to short-term thermal shock and provide insight into the potential impact of coastal power plants on the trophic dynamics of tropical coastal ecosystems. Feeding experiments were conducted at three different temperatures (29 °C, 33 °C, and 35 °C) using the copepod Acartia erythraea, collected from Sanya Bay, China. The grazing rate of A. erythraea decreased dramatically in the high temperature treatment. Analysis of 18S rDNA clone libraries revealed that the diet of copepods from different treatments was mainly comprised of diatoms, metazoans, and protozoans; A. erythraea exhibited an obvious feeding preference shift with temperature, with a change from a diatom-dominated diet at 29 °C to a metazoan-dominated diet at 35 °C, and the omnivory index shifted from 0.1 to 2.84 correspondingly. Furthermore, A. erythraea showed a positive feeding response to plant food (i.e., phytoplankton and land plants) in the control treatment (29 °C), but a positive response to animal prey (i.e., metazoans and protozoans) at temperatures exceeding 33 °C, as evaluated by the Ivlev’s selectivity index. Our results suggest that copepods could regulate their food intake by considering their energy demands when exposed to short-term thermal stress, which might influence the pathway of materials moving up the trophic system. However, further studies are required to elucidate the effects of elevated temperature on feeding of different organisms in order to predict the influence of thermal pollution on the food web of tropical coastal ecosystems.

Immune-mediated hookworm clearance and survival of a marine mammal decrease with warmer ocean temperatures

Increases in ocean temperature are associated with changes in the distribution of fish stocks, and the foraging regimes and maternal attendance patterns of marine mammals. However, it is not well understood how these changes affect offspring health and survival. The maternal attendance patterns and immunity of South American fur seals were assessed in a rookery where hookworm disease is the main cause of pup mortality. Pups receiving higher levels of maternal attendance had a positive energy balance and a more reactive immune system. These pups were able to expel hookworms through a specific immune mediated mechanism and survived the infection. Maternal attendance was higher in years with low sea surface temperature, therefore, the mean hookworm burden and mortality increased with sea surface temperature over a 10-year period. We provide a mechanistic explanation regarding how changes in ocean temperature and maternal care affect infectious diseases dynamics in a marine mammal.

Warming and eutrophication combine to restructure diatoms and dinoflagellates

Temperature change and eutrophication are known to affect phytoplankton communities, but relatively little is known about the effects of interactions between simultaneous changes of temperature and nutrient loading in coastal ecosystems. Here we show that such interaction is key in driving diatom-dinoflagellate dynamics in the East China Sea. Diatoms and dinoflagellates responded differently to temperature, nutrient concentrations and ratios, and their interactions. Diatoms preferred lower temperature and higher nutrient concentrations, while dinoflagellates were less sensitive to temperature and nutrient concentrations, but tended to prevail at low phosphorus and high N:P ratio conditions. These different traits of diatoms and dinoflagellates resulted in the fact that both the effect of warming resulting in nutrients decline as a consequence of increasing stratification and the effect of increasing terrestrial nutrient input as a result of eutrophication might promote dinoflagellates over diatoms. We predict that conservative forecasts of environmental change by the year 2100 are likely to result in the decrease of diatoms in 60% and the increase of dinoflagellates in 70% of the surface water of the East China Sea, and project that mean diatoms should decrease by 19% while mean dinoflagellates should increase by 60% in the surface water of the coastal East China Sea. This analysis is based on a series of statistical niche models of the consequences of multiple environmental changes on diatom and dinoflagellate biomass in the East China Sea based on 2815 samples randomly collected from 23 cruises spanning 14 years (2002-2015). Our findings reveal that dinoflagellate blooms will be more frequent and intense, which will affect coastal ecosystem functioning.

Reconciling the opposing effects of warming on phytoplankton biomass in 188 large lakes

Lake ecosystems are deeply integrated into local and regional economies through recreation, tourism, and as sources of food and drinking water. Shifts in lake phytoplankton biomass, which are mediated by climate warming will alter these benefits with potential cascading effects on human well-being. The metabolic theory of ecology suggests that warming reduces lake phytoplankton biomass as basal metabolic costs increase, but this hypothesis has not been tested at the global scale. We use satellite-based estimates of lake surface temperature (LST) and lake surface chlorophyll-a concentration (chl-a; as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass) in 188 of the world’s largest lakes from 2002-2016 to test for interannual associations between chl-a and LST. In contrast to predictions from metabolic ecology, we found that LST and chl-a were positively correlated in 46% of lakes (p < 0.05). The associations between LST and chl-a depended on lake trophic state; warming tended to increase chl-a in phytoplankton-rich lakes and decrease chl-a in phytoplankton-poor lakes. We attribute the opposing responses of chl-a to LST to the effects of temperature on trophic interactions, and the availability of resources to phytoplankton. These patterns provide insights into how climate warming alters lake ecosystems on which millions of people depend for their livelihoods.

Environmental structuring of marine plankton phenology

Seasonal cycles of primary production (phenology) critically influence biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem structure and climate. In the oceans, primary production is dominated by microbial phytoplankton that drift with currents, and show rapid turnover and chaotic dynamics, factors that have hindered understanding of their phenology. We used all available observations of upper-ocean phytoplankton concentration (1995-2015) to describe global patterns of phytoplankton phenology, the environmental factors that structure them, and their relationships to terrestrial patterns. Phytoplankton phenologies varied strongly by latitude and productivity regime: those in high-production regimes were governed by insolation, whereas those in low-production regimes were constrained by vertical mixing. In eight of ten ocean regions, our findings contradict the hypothesis that phytoplankton phenologies are coherent at basin scales. Lastly, the spatial organization of phenological patterns in the oceans was broadly similar to those on land, suggesting an overarching effect of insolation on the phenology of primary producers globally.