The role of seasonal timing and phenological shifts for species coexistence

Assembly Graph as the Rosetta Stone of Ecological Assembly

Ecological assembly-the process of ecological community formation through species introductions-has recently seen exciting theoretical advancements across dynamical, informational, and probabilistic approaches. However, these theories often remain inaccessible to non-theoreticians, and they lack a unifying lens. Here, I introduce the assembly graph as an integrative tool to connect these emerging theories. The assembly graph visually represents assembly dynamics, where nodes symbolise species combinations and edges represent transitions driven by species introductions. Through the lens of assembly graphs, I review how ecological processes reduce uncertainty in random species arrivals (informational approach), identify graphical properties that guarantee species coexistence and examine how the class of dynamical models constrain the topology of assembly graphs (dynamical approach), and quantify transition probabilities with incomplete information (probabilistic approach). To facilitate empirical testing, I also review methods to decompose complex assembly graphs into smaller, measurable components, as well as computational tools for deriving empirical assembly graphs. In sum, this math-light review of theoretical progress aims to catalyse empirical research towards a predictive understanding of ecological assembly.

Phenology mediates direct and indirect interactions among co-occurring invasive plant species

Why nonnative invasive plant species commonly co-occur, despite their competitive superiority and propensity to displace native species, remains a paradox in invasion biology. Negative interactions among competitively dominant invaders are potentially alleviated by two understudied mechanisms: seasonal priority effects, where phenological separation weakens the effect of competition on species with early phenology; and indirect facilitation, where competition between two species is mitigated by a third species. Although phenological separation has been speculated as a mechanism for explaining co-occurrence patterns of invasive plants, it has never been directly tested. In a greenhouse experiment, we tested the effect of phenological separation on direct and indirect interactions between three co-occurring invasive plant species found in the riparian forests of North America. These species have distinct natural phenological separation with reproduction in early spring (Ficaria verna), mid-spring (Alliaria petiolata), and late summer (Microstegium vimineum). When phenology was experimentally synchronized, direct pairwise interactions among invasive species were overwhelmingly negative, asymmetric, and unlikely to promote co-occurrence. However, increasing phenological separation generated seasonal priority effects, which weakened the effect of competition on species with early phenology. Furthermore, the addition of a third species generated indirect facilitative effects, which balanced competitive outcomes among the two weakest competitors. Based on these findings, we conclude that phenological separation modulates the strength of both seasonal priority effects and indirect facilitation within species interaction networks and may promote the co-occurrence of three common invasive species within this study system. We articulate how future studies can test the external validity of these findings in more complex environmental conditions and with a larger range of invasive plants.

Temporal Dynamics of Species Richness and Composition in a Peri-Urban Tropical Frog Community in Central Brazil

Analyzing the temporal dynamics of ecological communities can shed light on coexistence mechanisms and help understand how populations and communities will behave in the face of climate change. However, little is known about how frog communities respond to climate in urban ecosystems, especially in tropical countries. Here, we analyzed how frog species richness and abundance are influenced by weather variables both intra- and inter-annually. We surveyed a peri-urban area in central Brazil, monthly for 3 years. To test the effect of weather variables on species richness and abundance, we used Generalized Additive Mixed-effects Models. We assessed seasonality using circular statistics. We also tested for differences in temporal beta diversity within and among years by estimating species disappearance and temporal rank shift, in addition to a multivariate model-based method to test the effect of year on species composition. Finally, we tested how taxonomic and phylogenetic alpha diversity changed through time using a novel approach based on Hill numbers. We found that species richness varied little among years and was affected only by photoperiod, while species abundance was more variable both between and within years, being mostly affected by humidity, temperature, and photoperiod. Species composition varied little between years, mostly between the first and subsequent years. Conversely, beta diversity was highest within years. Only the effective number of species changed significantly through time. Our results help not only understand temporal mechanisms that allow species coexistence, but also allow to make inferences about the impact of urbanization on biodiversity in recently urbanized landscapes, showing that species composition in peri-urban sites remains unaltered in a mid-timescale, especially when climate conditions change little across years.

Pattern and Process in a Rapidly Changing World: Ideas and Approaches

AbstractScience is as dynamic as the world around us. Our ideas continually change, as do the approaches we use to study science. Few things remain invariant in this changing landscape, but a fascination with pattern and process is one that has endured throughout the history of science. Paying homage to this long-held tradition, the 2023 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists focused on the role of pattern and process in ecology and evolution. It brought together a group of early-career researchers working on topics ranging from genetic diversity in microbes to changing patterns of species interactions in the geological record. Their work spanned the taxonomic spectrum from microbes to mammals, the temporal dimension from the Cenozoic to the present, and approaches ranging from manipulative experiments to comparative approaches. In this introductory article, I discuss how these diverse topics are linked by the common thread of elucidating processes underlying patterns and how they collectively generate novel insights into diversity maintenance at different levels of organization.

Seasonally Changing Interactions of Species Traits of Termites and Trees Promote Complementarity in Coarse Wood Decomposition

Complementary resource use by functionally different species may accelerate ecosystem processes. However, how co-variation in plant traits and animal traits promotes complementarity through temporal plant-animal interactions is poorly understood, even less so in detrital systems, thereby hampering our fundamental understanding of decomposition and carbon turnover. We hypothesised that, in seasonal subtropical forests where termites are major deadwood decomposers, trait complementarity of both termite species and tree species should promote overall deadwood decomposition through different seasons and years. Findings from a four-year coarse wood decomposition experiment involving 27 tree and 5 termite species support this hypothesis. Phenological and mandibular traits of the two most abundant termite species controlled wood decomposition of tree species differing in wood traits, through the seasons over 4 years, thereby promoting overall deadwood decomposition rates. Our findings indicate that complementarity in functional trait co-variation in plants and animals plays an important role in carbon cycling.

Phenological mismatches mitigate the ecological impact of a biological invader on amphibian communities

Horizon scans have emerged as a valuable tool to anticipate the incoming invasive alien species (IAS) by judging species on their potential impacts. However, little research has been conducted on quantifying actual impacts and assessing causes of species-specific vulnerabilities to particular IAS due to persistent methodological challenges. The underlying interspecific mechanisms driving species-specific vulnerabilities therefore remain poorly understood, even though they can substantially improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Given that interspecific interactions underlying ecological impacts of IAS are often shaped by phenological synchrony, we tested the hypothesis that temporal mismatches in breeding phenology between native species and IAS can mitigate their ecological impacts. Focusing on the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), we combined an environmental DNA (eDNA) quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding survey in Belgium with a global meta-analysis, and integrated citizen-science data on breeding phenology. We examined whether the presence of native amphibian species was negatively related to the presence or abundance of invasive bullfrogs and whether this relationship was affected by their phenological mismatches. The field study revealed a significant negative effect of increasing bullfrog eDNA concentrations on native amphibian species richness and community structure. These observations were shaped by species-specific vulnerabilities to invasive bullfrogs, with late spring- and summer-breeding species being strongly affected, while winter-breeding species remained unaffected. This trend was confirmed by the global meta-analysis. A significant negative relationship was observed between phenological mismatch and the impact of bullfrogs. Specifically, native amphibian species with breeding phenology differing by 6 weeks or less from invasive bullfrogs were more likely to be absent in the presence of bullfrogs than species whose phenology differed by more than 6 weeks with that of bullfrogs. Taken together, we present a novel method based on the combination of aqueous eDNA quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding to quantify the ecological impacts of biological invaders at the community level. We show that phenological mismatches between native and invasive species can be a strong predictor of invasion impact regardless of ecological or methodological context. Therefore, we advocate for the integration of temporal alignment between native and IAS's phenologies into invasion impact frameworks.

Abiotic and biotic factors jointly influence the contact and environmental transmission of a generalist pathogen

The joint influence of abiotic and biotic factors is important for understanding the transmission of generalist pathogens. Abiotic factors such as temperature can directly influence pathogen persistence in the environment and will also affect biotic factors, such as host community composition and abundance. At intermediate spatial scales, the effects of temperature, community composition, and host abundance are expected to contribute to generalist pathogen transmission. We use a simple transmission model to explain and predict how host community composition, host abundance, and environmental pathogen persistence times can independently and jointly influence transmission. Our transmission model clarifies how abiotic and biotic factors can synergistically support the transmission of a pathogen. The empirical data show that high community competence, high abundance, and low temperatures correlate with high levels of transmission of ranavirus in larval amphibian communities. Discrete wetlands inhabited by larval amphibians in the presence of ranavirus provide a compelling case study comprising distinct host communities at a spatial scale anticipated to demonstrate abiotic and biotic influence on transmission. We use these host communities to observe phenomena demonstrated in our theoretical model. These findings emphasize the importance of considering both abiotic and biotic factors, and concomitant direct and indirect mechanisms, in the study of pathogen transmission and should extend to other generalist pathogens with the capacity for environmental transmission.

Time is of the essence: A general framework for uncovering temporal structures of communities

Ecological communities are inherently dynamic: species constantly turn over within years, months, weeks or even days. These temporal shifts in community composition determine essential aspects of species interactions and how energy, nutrients, information, diseases and perturbations 'flow' through systems. Yet, our understanding of community structure has relied heavily on static analyses not designed to capture critical features of this dynamic temporal dimension of communities. Here, we propose a conceptual and methodological framework for quantifying and analysing this temporal dimension. Conceptually, we split the temporal structure into two definitive features, sequence and duration, and review how they are linked to key concepts in ecology. We then outline how we can capture these definitive features using perspectives and tools from temporal graph theory. We demonstrate how we can easily integrate ongoing research on phenology into this framework and highlight what new opportunities arise from this approach to answer fundamental questions in community ecology. As climate change reshuffles ecological communities worldwide, quantifying the temporal organization of communities is imperative to resolve the fundamental processes that shape natural ecosystems and predict how these systems may change in the future.

Variations in the Odonata Assemblages: How Do the Dry Season and Water Bodies Influence Them?

Diverse abiotic and biotic factors drive the ecological variation of communities across spatial and temporal dimensions. Within the Amazonian landscape, various freshwater environments exhibit distinct physicochemical characteristics. Thus, our study delved into the fluctuations of Odonata assemblages amidst distinct water bodies within Amazonia, encompassing two distinct climatic seasons. Comparative analysis was conducted on Odonata species diversity and assemblage composition across a blackwater pond, a lake, and a stream, spanning the initiation and culmination of the dry season in the southwestern Amazon region in Peru. Our methodology involved capturing adult Odonata using entomological nets on three separate occasions between 11:00 and 14:00 h for each water body in May (beginning of the dry season) and October (end of the dry season) of 2018. We also evaluated the influence of temperature, precipitation, and percent cloud cover on the abundance and richness of adult Odonata. Species richness and composition differed among the three water bodies in both periods of the dry season. No effect of the dry season periods on species richness and abundance was observed. However, except in the oxbow lake, the more abundant species were substituted to the end of the dry season. Our study highlights the influence of water body types on Odonata species diversity and composition. The effects of the sampling period during the dry season may not be immediately apparent in conventional diversity metrics, such as species richness and abundance. Instead, its effects manifest predominantly in the relative abundance of the species that compose these assemblages.

Time-dependent interaction modification generated from plant-soil feedback

Pairwise interactions between species can be modified by other community members, leading to emergent dynamics contingent on community composition. Despite the prevalence of such higher-order interactions, little is known about how they are linked to the timing and order of species' arrival. We generate population dynamics from a mechanistic plant-soil feedback model, then apply a general theoretical framework to show that the modification of a pairwise interaction by a third plant depends on its germination phenology. These time-dependent interaction modifications emerge from concurrent changes in plant and microbe populations and are strengthened by higher overlap between plants' associated microbiomes. The interaction between this overlap and the specificity of microbiomes further determines plant coexistence. Our framework is widely applicable to mechanisms in other systems from which similar time-dependent interaction modifications can emerge, highlighting the need to integrate temporal shifts of species interactions to predict the emergent dynamics of natural communities.

Competition for time: Evidence for an overlooked, diversity-maintaining competitive mechanism

Understanding how diversity is maintained in plant communities requires that we first understand the mechanisms of competition for limiting resources. In ecology, there is an underappreciated but fundamental distinction between systems in which the depletion of limiting resources reduces the growth rates of competitors and systems in which resource depletion reduces the time available for competitors to grow, a mechanism we call 'competition for time'. Importantly, modern community ecology and our framing of the coexistence problem are built on the implicit assumption that competition reduces the growth rate. However, recent theoretical work suggests competition for time may be the predominant competitive mechanism in a broad array of natural communities, a significant advance given that when species compete for time, diversity-maintaining trade-offs emerge organically. In this study, we first introduce competition for time conceptually using a simple model of interacting species. Then, we perform an experiment in a Mediterranean annual grassland to determine whether competition for time is an important competitive mechanism in a field system. Indeed, we find that species respond to increased competition through reductions in their lifespan rather than their rate of growth. In total, our study suggests competition for time may be overlooked as a mechanism of biodiversity maintenance.

Different photoperiodic responses in diapause induction can promote the maintenance of genetic diversity via the storage effect in Daphnia pulex

Understanding mechanisms that promote the maintenance of biodiversity (genetic and species diversity) has been a central topic in evolution and ecology. Previous studies have revealed that diapause can contribute to coexistence of competing genotypes or species in fluctuating environments via the storage effect. However, they tended to focus on differences in reproductive success (e.g. seed yield) and diapause termination (e.g. germination) timing. Here we tested whether different photoperiodic responses in diapause induction can promote coexistence of two parthenogenetic (asexual) genotypes of Daphnia pulex in Lake Fukami-ike, Japan. Through laboratory experiments, we confirmed that short day length and low food availability induced the production of diapausing eggs. Furthermore, we found that one genotype tended to produce diapausing eggs in broader environmental conditions than the other. Terminating parthenogenetic reproduction earlier decreases total clonal production, but the early diapausing genotype becomes advantageous by assuring reproduction in 'short' years where winter arrival is earlier than usual. Empirically parameterized theoretical analyses suggested that different photoperiodic responses can promote coexistence via the storage effect with fluctuations of the growing season length. Therefore, timing of diapause induction may be as important as diapause termination timing for promoting the maintenance of genetic diversity in fluctuating environments.

Inverse priority effects: A role for historical contingency during species losses

Communities worldwide are losing multiple species at an unprecedented rate, but how communities reassemble after these losses is often an open question. It is well established that the order and timing of species arrival during community assembly shapes forthcoming community composition and function. Yet, whether the order and timing of species losses can lead to divergent community trajectories remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose a novel framework that sets testable hypotheses on the effects of the order and timing of species losses-inverse priority effects-and suggests its integration into the study of community assembly. We propose that the order and timing of species losses within a community can generate alternative reassembly trajectories, and suggest mechanisms that may underlie these inverse priority effects. To formalize these concepts quantitatively, we used a three-species Lotka-Volterra competition model, enabling to investigate conditions in which the order of species losses can lead to divergent reassembly trajectories. The inverse priority effects framework proposed here promotes the systematic study of the dynamics of species losses from ecological communities, ultimately aimed to better understand community reassembly and guide management decisions in light of rapid global change.

The role of seasonality in shaping the interactions of honeybees with other taxa

The Eltonian niche of a species is defined as its set of interactions with other taxa. How this set varies with biotic, abiotic and human influences is a core question of modern ecology. In seasonal environments, the realized Eltonian niche is likely to vary due to periodic changes in the occurrence and abundance of interaction partners and changes in species behavior and preferences. Also, human management decisions may leave strong imprints on species interactions. To compare the impact of seasonality to that of management effects, honeybees provide an excellent model system. Based on DNA traces of interaction partners archived in honey, we can infer honeybee interactions with floral resources and microbes in the surrounding habitats, their hives, and themselves. Here, we resolved seasonal and management-based impacts on honeybee interactions by sampling beehives repeatedly during the honey-storing period of honeybees in Finland. We then use a genome-skimming approach to identify the taxonomic contents of the DNA in the samples. To compare the effects of the season to the effects of location, management, and the colony itself in shaping honeybee interactions, we used joint species distribution modeling. We found that honeybee interactions with other taxa varied greatly among taxonomic and functional groups. Against a backdrop of wide variation in the interactions documented in the DNA content of honey from bees from different hives, regions, and beekeepers, the imprint of the season remained relatively small. Overall, a honey-based approach offers unique insights into seasonal variation in the identity and abundance of interaction partners among honeybees. During the summer, the availability and use of different interaction partners changed substantially, but hive- and taxon-specific patterns were largely idiosyncratic as modified by hive management. Thus, the beekeeper and colony identity are as important determinants of the honeybee's realized Eltonian niche as is seasonality.

Warming-induced phenological mismatch between trees and shrubs explains high-elevation forest expansion

Despite the importance of species interaction in modulating the range shifts of plants, little is known about the responses of coexisting life forms to a warmer climate. Here, we combine long-term monitoring of cambial phenology in sympatric trees and shrubs at two treelines of the Tibetan Plateau, with a meta-analysis of ring-width series from 344 shrubs and 575 trees paired across 11 alpine treelines in the Northern Hemisphere. Under a spring warming of +1°C, xylem resumption advances by 2-4 days in trees, but delays by 3-8 days in shrubs. The divergent phenological response to warming was due to shrubs being 3.2 times more sensitive than trees to chilling accumulation. Warmer winters increased the thermal requirement for cambial reactivation in shrubs, leading to a delayed response to warmer springs. Our meta-analysis confirmed such a mechanism across continental scales. The warming-induced phenological mismatch may give a competitive advantage to trees over shrubs, which would provide a new explanation for increasing alpine treeline shifts under the context of climate change.

Stage-mediated priority effects and season lengths shape long-term competition dynamics

The relative arrival time of species can affect their interactions and thus determine which species persist in a community. Although this phenomenon, called priority effect, is widespread in natural communities, it is unclear how it depends on the length of growing season. Using a seasonal stage-structured model, we show that differences in stages of interacting species could generate priority effects by altering the strength of stabilizing and equalizing coexistence mechanisms, changing outcomes between exclusion, coexistence and positive frequency dependence. However, these priority effects are strongest in systems with just one or a few generations per season and diminish in systems where many overlapping generations per season dilute the importance of stage-specific interactions. Our model reveals a novel link between the number of generations in a season and the consequences of priority effects, suggesting that consequences of phenological shifts driven by climate change should depend on specific life histories of organisms.

Seasonal specialization drives divergent population dynamics in two closely related butterflies

Seasons impose different selection pressures on organisms through contrasting environmental conditions. How such seasonal evolutionary conflict is resolved in organisms whose lives span across seasons remains underexplored. Through field experiments, laboratory work, and citizen science data analyses, we investigate this question using two closely related butterflies (Pieris rapae and P. napi). Superficially, the two butterflies appear highly ecologically similar. Yet, the citizen science data reveal that their fitness is partitioned differently across seasons. Pieris rapae have higher population growth during the summer season but lower overwintering success than do P. napi. We show that these differences correspond to the physiology and behavior of the butterflies. Pieris rapae outperform P. napi at high temperatures in several growth season traits, reflected in microclimate choice by ovipositing wild females. Instead, P. rapae have higher winter mortality than do P. napi. We conclude that the difference in population dynamics between the two butterflies is driven by seasonal specialization, manifested as strategies that maximize gains during growth seasons and minimize harm during adverse seasons, respectively.

An evolutionary framework for understanding habitat partitioning in plants

Many plant species with overlapping geographic ranges segregate at smaller spatial scales. This spatial segregation-zonation when it follows an abiotic gradient and habitat partitioning when it does not-has been experimentally investigated for over a century often using distantly related taxa, such as different genera of algae or barnacles. In those foundational studies, trade-offs between stress tolerance and competitive ability were found to be the major driving factors of habitat partitioning for both animals and plants. Yet, the evolutionary relationships among segregating species are usually not taken into account. Since close relatives are hypothesized to compete more intensely and are more likely to interact during mating compared to distant relatives, the mechanisms underlying habitat partitioning may differ depending on the relatedness of the species in question. Here, I propose an integration of ecological and evolutionary factors contributing to habitat partitioning in plants, specifically how the relative contributions of factors predictably change with relatedness of taxa. Interspecific reproductive interactions in particular are understudied, yet important drivers of habitat partitioning. In spatially segregated species, interspecific mating can reduce the fitness of rare immigrants, preventing their establishment and maintaining patterns of spatial segregation. In this synthesis, I review the literature on mechanisms of habitat partitioning in plants within an evolutionary framework, identifying knowledge gaps and detailing future directions for this rapidly growing field of study.

Phenological Coadaptation Can Stabilize Predator–Prey Dynamics

In recent years, phenology – the seasonal timing of biological life cycles – has received increasing attention as climate change threatens to shift phenology. Phenology is crucial to the life cycle of organisms and their interactions with intimate partner species; hence, phenology has important fitness consequences suggesting that phenology can change through adaptive processes caused by species interaction. However, to date, there is limited understanding of how phenological adaptation occurs among interacting species and consequently affects ecological population dynamics. In this study, a phenological predator–prey co-adaptation model was evaluated to determine how adaptive phenological changes occur in prey and predator and how phenological coadaptation affects their coexistence. Population fluctuations tend to decrease and become stabilized when adaptation occurs rapidly. Furthermore, when adaptation is slow, predator–prey dynamics can be stabilized or destabilized depending on the initial difference in phenological timing between species. These results suggest that phenology shaped by slow coevolution can shift with changes in activity timing caused by environmental changes and simultaneously alter the stability of predator–prey dynamics. In contrast, phenology caused by rapid adaptation, such as phenotypic plasticity, may be robust to environmental change and maintain the stability of predator–prey dynamics. Understanding the types of adaptative processes that shape species phenologies may be crucial for predicting the ecological effects of climate change.

Temperature and nutrient conditions modify the effects of phenological shifts in predator-prey communities

While there is mounting evidence indicating that the relative timing of predator and prey phenologies shapes the outcome of trophic interactions, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how important the environmental context (e.g. abiotic conditions) is for shaping this relationship. Environmental conditions not only frequently drive shifts in phenologies, but they can also affect the very same processes that mediate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Thus, identifying how environmental conditions shape the effects of phenological shifts is key to predict community dynamics across a heterogenous landscape and how they will change with ongoing climate change in the future. Here I tested how environmental conditions shape effects of phenological shifts by experimentally manipulating temperature, nutrient availability, and relative phenologies in two predator-prey freshwater systems (mole salamander- bronze frog vs dragonfly larvae-leopard frog). This allowed me to (1) isolate the effect of phenological shifts and different environmental conditions, (2) determine how they interact, and (3) how consistent these patterns are across different species and environments. I found that delaying prey arrival dramatically increased predation rates, but these effects were contingent on environmental conditions and predator system. While both nutrient addition and warming significantly enhanced the effect of arrival time, their effect was qualitatively different across systems: Nutrient addition enhanced the positive effect of early arrival in the dragonfly-leopard frog system, while warming enhanced the negative effect of arriving late in the salamander-bronze frog system. Predator responses varied qualitatively across predator-prey systems. Only in the system with strong gape-limitation were predators (salamanders) significantly affected by prey arrival time and this effect varied with environmental context. Correlations between predator and prey demographic rates suggest that this was driven by shifts in initial predator-prey size ratios and a positive feedback between size-specific predation rates and predator growth rates. These results highlight the importance of accounting for temporal and spatial correlation of local environmental conditions and gape-limitation in predator-prey systems when predicting the effects of phenological shifts and climate change on predator-prey systems.

Patch size drives colonization by aquatic insects, with minor priority effects of a cohabitant

Patch size is one of the most important factors affecting the distribution and abundance of species, and recent research has shown that patch size is an important niche dimension affecting community structure in aquatic insects. Building on this result, we examined the impact of patch size in conjunction with presence of larval anurans on colonization by aquatic insects. Hyla chrysoscelis (Cope's gray treefrog) larvae are abundant and early colonists in fishless lentic habitats, and these larvae can fill multiple ecological roles. By establishing larvae in mesocosms prior to colonization, we were able to assess whether H. chrysoscelis larvae have priority effects on aquatic insect assemblages. We conducted a series of three experiments in naturally colonized experimental landscapes to test whether (1) H. chrysoscelis larval density affects insect colonization, (2) variation in patch size affects insect colonization, and (3) the presence and larval density of H. chrysoscelis shift colonization of insects between patches of different size. Larval density independently had almost no effect on colonization, while patch size had species-specific effects consistent with prior work. When larvae and patch size were tested in conjunction, patch size had numerous, often strong, species-specific effects on colonization; larval density had effects largely limited to the assemblages of colonizing beetles and water bugs, with few effects on individual species. Higher larval densities in large mesocosms shifted some insect colonization to smaller patches, resulting in higher beta diversity among small patches in proximity to high density large mesocosms. This indicates establishing H. chrysoscelis larvae prior to insect colonization can likely create priority effects that slightly shape insect communities. Our results support the importance of patch size in studying species abundances and distributions and also indicate that colonization order plays an important role in determining the communities found within habitat patches.

Microbial effects on plant phenology and fitness

Plant development and the timing of developmental events (phenology) are tightly coupled with plant fitness. A variety of internal and external factors determine the timing and fitness consequences of these life-history transitions. Microbes interact with plants throughout their life history and impact host phenology. This review summarizes current mechanistic and theoretical knowledge surrounding microbe-driven changes in plant phenology. Overall, there are examples of microbes impacting every phenological transition. While most studies have focused on flowering time, microbial effects remain important for host survival and fitness across all phenological phases. Microbe-mediated changes in nutrient acquisition and phytohormone signaling can release plants from stressful conditions and alter plant stress responses inducing shifts in developmental events. The frequency and direction of phenological effects appear to be partly determined by the lifestyle and the underlying nature of a plant-microbe interaction (i.e., mutualistic or pathogenic), in addition to the taxonomic group of the microbe (fungi vs. bacteria). Finally, we highlight biases, gaps in knowledge, and future directions. This biotic source of plasticity for plant adaptation will serve an important role in sustaining plant biodiversity and managing agriculture under the pressures of climate change.

Response of Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services to Climate Change in China: A Review

Climate change is having a significant impact on the global ecosystem and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Numerous studies in climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in China have been published in recent decades. However, a comprehensive review of the topic is needed to provide an improved understanding of the history and driving mechanisms of environmental changes within the region. Here we review the evidence for changes in climate and the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem, and ecosystem services at a China scale. Our main conclusions are as follows. (1) Most of the evidence shows that climate change (the increasing extreme events) is affecting the change of productivity, species interactions, and biological invasions, especially in the agro-pastoral transition zone and fragile ecological area in Northern China. (2) The individuals and populations respond to climate change through changes in behavior, functions, and geographic scope. (3) The impact of climate change on most types of services (provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural) in China is mainly negative and brings threats and challenges to human well-being and natural resource management, therefore, requiring costly societal adjustments. In general, although great progress has been made, the management strategies still need to be further improved. Integrating climate change into ecosystem services assessment and natural resource management is still a major challenge. Moving forward, it is necessary to evaluate and research the effectiveness of typical demonstration cases, which will contribute to better scientific management of natural resources in China and the world.

A sink host allows a specialist herbivore to persist in a seasonal source

In seasonal environments, sinks that are more persistent than sources may serve as temporal stepping stones for specialists. However, this possibility has to our knowledge, not been demonstrated to date, as such environments are thought to select for generalists, and the role of sinks, both in the field and in the laboratory, is difficult to document. Here, we used laboratory experiments to show that herbivorous arthropods associated with seasonally absent main (source) habitats can endure on a suboptimal (sink) host for several generations, albeit with a negative growth rate. Additionally, they dispersed towards this host less often than towards the main host and accepted it less often than the main host. Finally, repeated experimental evolution attempts revealed no adaptation to the suboptimal host. Nevertheless, field observations showed that arthropods are found in suboptimal habitats when the main habitat is unavailable. Together, these results show that evolutionary rescue in the suboptimal habitat is not possible. Instead, the sink habitat functions as a temporal stepping stone, allowing for the persistence of a specialist when the source habitat is gone.

Untangling the complexity of priority effects in multispecies communities

The history of species immigration can dictate how species interact in local communities, thereby causing historical contingency in community assembly. Since immigration history is rarely known, these historical influences, or priority effects, pose a major challenge in predicting community assembly. Here, we provide a graph-based, non-parametric, theoretical framework for understanding the predictability of community assembly as affected by priority effects. To develop this framework, we first show that the diversity of possible priority effects increases super-exponentially with the number of species. We then point out that, despite this diversity, the consequences of priority effects for multispecies communities can be classified into four basic types, each of which reduces community predictability: alternative stable states, alternative transient paths, compositional cycles and the lack of escapes from compositional cycles to stable states. Using a neural network, we show that this classification of priority effects enables accurate explanation of community predictability, particularly when each species immigrates repeatedly. We also demonstrate the empirical utility of our theoretical framework by applying it to two experimentally derived assembly graphs of algal and ciliate communities. Based on these analyses, we discuss how the framework proposed here can help guide experimental investigation of the predictability of history-dependent community assembly.

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically - how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment - is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.

Phenological traits foster persistence of mutualistic networks by promoting facilitation

Morphological and phenological traits are key determinants of the structure of mutualistic networks. Both traits create forbidden links, but phenological traits can also decouple interaction in time. While such difference likely affects the indirect effects among species and consequently network persistence, it remains overlooked. Here, using a dynamic model, we show that networks structured by phenology favour facilitation over competition within guilds of pollinators and plants, thereby increasing network persistence, while the contrary holds for networks structured by morphology. We further show that such buffering of competition by phenological traits mostly beneficiate to specialists, the most vulnerable species otherwise, which propagate the most positive effects within guilds and promote nestedness. Our results indicate that beyond trophic mismatch, phenological shifts such as those induced by climate change are likely to affect indirect effects within mutualistic assemblages, with consequences for biodiversity.

Migratory strategy drives species-level variation in bird sensitivity to vegetation green-up

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.

Spring understory herbs flower later in intensively managed forests

Many organisms respond to anthropogenic environmental change through shifts in their phenology. In plants, flowering is largely driven by temperature, and therefore affected by climate change. However, on smaller scales climatic conditions are also influenced by other factors, including habitat structure. A group of plants with a particularly distinct phenology are the understory herbs in temperate European forests. In these forests, management alters tree species composition (often replacing deciduous with coniferous species) and homogenizes stand structure, and as a consequence changes light conditions and microclimate. Forest management should thus also affect the phenology of understory herbs. To test this, we recorded the flowering phenology of 16 early-flowering herbs on 100 forest plots varying in management intensity, from near-natural to intensely managed forests, in central and southern Germany. We found that in forest stands with a high management intensity, such as Norway spruce plantations, the plants flowered on average about 2 weeks later than in unmanaged forests. This was largely because management also affected microclimate (e.g., spring temperatures of 5.9°C in managed coniferous, 6.7 in managed deciduous, and 7.0°C in unmanaged deciduous plots), which in turn affected phenology, with plants flowering later on colder and moister forest stands (+4.5 d per -1°C and 2.7 d per 10% humidity increase). Among forest characteristics, the percentage of conifers had the greatest influence on microclimate, but also the age, overall crown projection area, structural complexity and spatial distribution of the forest stands. Our study indicates that forest management alters plant phenology, with potential far-reaching consequences for the ecology and evolution of understorey communities. More generally, our study demonstrates that besides climate change other drivers of environmental change, too, can influence the phenology of organisms.

Diversity of biological rhythm and food web stability

How ecosystem biodiversity is maintained remains a persistent question in the field of ecology. Here, I present a new coexistence theory, i.e. diversity of biological rhythm. Circadian, circalunar and circannual rhythms, which control short- and long-term activities, are identified as universal phenomena in organisms. Analysis of a theoretical food web with diel, monthly and annual cycles in foraging activity for each organism shows that diverse biological cycles play key roles in maintaining complex communities. Each biological rhythm does not have a strong stabilizing effect independently but enhances community persistence when combined with other rhythms. Biological rhythms also mitigate inherent destabilization tendencies caused by food web complexity. Temporal weak interactions due to hybridity of multiple activity cycles play a key role toward coexistence. Polyrhythmic changes in biological activities in response to the Earth's rotation may be a key factor in maintaining biological communities.

Wetland hydroperiod predicts community structure, but not the magnitude of cross-community congruence

A major focus in community ecology is understanding how biological interactions and environmental conditions shape horizontal communities. However, few studies have explored whether cross-community interactions are consistent or non-stationary across environmental gradients. Using the relative abundance of birds, aquatic macroinvertebrates and plants, we examined how cross-community congruence varied between short and long-hydroperiod prairie pothole wetlands in southern Alberta. These wetlands are structured by their hydroperiod: the length of time that ponded water is present in the wetland. We compared the strength of cross-community congruence and the strength of congruence between each horizontal community and wetland hydroperiod in wetlands that typically contain ponded water throughout the year to wetlands that dry up every summer. The strength of cross-community relationships was similar between more permanent and more ephemeral wetland classes, suggesting that biological interactions have a near equivalent role in shaping community composition, regardless of hydroperiod. However, because cross-community congruence, measured as the Procrustes pseudo-R value, was, on average, 77% ± SE 12% greater than that between each horizontal community and measures of wetland hydroperiod, we concluded that community structure is not shaped by hydroperiod alone. We attribute the observed cross-community congruence to (1) plants and aquatic macroinvertebrates influence birds through habitat and food provisioning, and (2) birds influence plants and aquatic macroinvertebrates by dispersing their propagules.

Drivers of assemblage-wide calling activity in tropical anurans and the role of temporal resolution

Temporal scale in animal communities is often associated with seasonality, despite the large variation in species activity during a diel cycle. A gap thus remains in understanding the dynamics of short-term activity in animal communities. Here we assessed calling activity of tropical anurans and addressed how species composition varied during night activity in assemblages along gradients of local and landscape environmental heterogeneity. We investigated 39 anuran assemblages in the Pantanal wetlands (Brazil) with passive acoustic monitoring during the peak of one breeding season, and first determined changes in species composition between night periods (early, mid and late) using two temporal resolutions (1- and 3-hr intervals). Then, we addressed the role of habitat structure (local and landscape heterogeneity variables from field-based and remote sensing metrics) and ecological context (species richness and phylogenetic relatedness) in determining changes in species composition (a) between night periods and (b) across days. Nocturnal calling activity of anuran assemblages varied more within the 1-hr resolution than the 3-hr resolution. Differences in species composition between early- and late-night periods were related to local habitat structure and phylogenetic relatedness, while a low variation in compositional changes across days was associated with low-heterogeneous landscapes. None of these relationships were observed using the coarser temporal resolution (3 hr). Our findings on the variation of calling activity in tropical anuran assemblages suggest potential trade-offs mediated by fine-temporal partitioning. Local and landscape heterogeneity may provide conditions for spatial partitioning, while the relatedness among co-signalling species provides cues on the ecological overlap of species with similar requirements. These relationships suggest a role of niche dimensional complementarity on the structuring of these anuran assemblages over fine-temporal scales. We argue that fine-temporal differences between species in breeding activity can influence the outcome of species interaction and thus, addressing temporal scaling issues can improve our understanding of the dynamics of animal communities.

Long-term effects of global change on occupancy and flight period of wild bees in Belgium

Global change affects species by modifying their abundance, spatial distribution, and activity period. The challenge is now to identify the respective drivers of those responses and to understand how those responses combine to affect species assemblages and ecosystem functioning. Here we correlate changes in occupancy and mean flight date of 205 wild bee species in Belgium with temporal changes in temperature trend and interannual variation, agricultural intensification, and urbanization. Over the last 70 years, bee occupancy decreased on average by 33%, most likely because of agricultural intensification, and flight period of bees advanced on average by 4 days, most likely because of interannual temperature changes. Those responses resulted in a synergistic effect because species which increased in occupancy tend to be those that have shifted their phenologies earlier in the season. This leads to an overall advancement and shortening of the pollination season by 9 and 15 days respectively, with lower species richness and abundance compared to historical pollinator assemblages, except at the early start of the season. Our results thus suggest a strong decline in pollination function and services.

Polyrhythmic foraging and competitive coexistence

The current ecological understanding still does not fully explain how biodiversity is maintained. One strategy to address this issue is to contrast theoretical prediction with real competitive communities where diverse species share limited resources. I present, in this study, a new competitive coexistence theory-diversity of biological rhythms. I show that diversity in activity cycles plays a key role in coexistence of competing species, using a two predator-one prey system with diel, monthly, and annual cycles for predator foraging. Competitive exclusion always occurs without activity cycles. Activity cycles do, however, allow for coexistence. Furthermore, each activity cycle plays a different role in coexistence, and coupling of activity cycles can synergistically broaden the coexistence region. Thus, with all activity cycles, the coexistence region is maximal. The present results suggest that polyrhythmic changes in biological activity in response to the earth's rotation and revolution are key to competitive coexistence. Also, temporal niche shifts caused by environmental changes can easily eliminate competitive coexistence.

Transient inconsistency between population density and fisheries yields without bycatch species extinction

Recent studies have demonstrated the great advantages of marine reserves in solving bycatch problems by maintaining the persistence (i.e., avoid extinction) of endangered species without sacrificing the fisheries yields of target species. However, transient phenomena rather than equilibrium states of population dynamics still require further research. Here, with a simple and general model, the transient dynamics of the target fish species are investigated under management which minimizes extinction risk of the bycatch species. An interesting finding is that fisheries yields can strongly fluctuate even if population density both inside and outside marine reserve only slightly varies (or vice versa), leading to transient inconsistency between the population densities and fisheries yields. This finding suggests that population density dynamics of the target fish species cannot be used to predict the transient phenomena of fisheries yields (or vice versa) in fisheries management. However, the unpredictability can be receded as the sensitivity analyses show that a large marine reserve size and low escapement rate can shorten the transient duration.

Best environmental predictors of breeding phenology differ with elevation in a common woodland bird species

Temperatures in mountain areas are increasing at a higher rate than the Northern Hemisphere land average, but how fauna may respond, in particular in terms of phenology, remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess how elevation could modify the relationships between climate variability (air temperature and snow melt-out date), the timing of plant phenology and egg-laying date of the coal tit (Periparus ater). We collected 9 years (2011-2019) of data on egg-laying date, spring air temperature, snow melt-out date, and larch budburst date at two elevations (~1,300 m and ~1,900 m asl) on a slope located in the Mont-Blanc Massif in the French Alps. We found that at low elevation, larch budburst date had a direct influence on egg-laying date, while at high-altitude snow melt-out date was the limiting factor. At both elevations, air temperature had a similar effect on egg-laying date, but was a poorer predictor than larch budburst or snowmelt date. Our results shed light on proximate drivers of breeding phenology responses to interannual climate variability in mountain areas and suggest that factors directly influencing species phenology vary at different elevations. Predicting the future responses of species in a climate change context will require testing the transferability of models and accounting for nonstationary relationships between environmental predictors and the timing of phenological events.

Shifts in timing and duration of breeding for 73 boreal bird species over four decades

The changing climate is causing shifts in the timing of species activity. We use data on over 820,000 nesting records to quantify changes in the beginning, end, and duration of breeding among boreal birds. In addition to a general advance of breeding, we find an overall contraction of the breeding period. This pattern was most common among resident and short-distance migrating species. Overall, we detect a shift in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction, involving the start and end of reproduction and how concentrated the breeding period is. From a methodological perspective, our study illustrates that a focus on quantifying phenological advances alone may mask important patterns of phenology change across the season.

Breeding timed to match optimal resource abundance is vital for the successful reproduction of species, and breeding is therefore sensitive to environmental cues. As the timing of breeding shifts with a changing climate, this may not only affect the onset of breeding but also its termination, and thus the length of the breeding period. We use an extensive dataset of over 820K nesting records of 73 bird species across the boreal region in Finland to probe for changes in the beginning, end, and duration of the breeding period over four decades (1975 to 2017). We uncover a general advance of breeding with a strong phylogenetic signal but no systematic variation over space. Additionally, 31% of species contracted their breeding period in at least one bioclimatic zone, as the end of the breeding period advanced more than the beginning. We did not detect a statistical difference in phenological responses of species with combinations of different migratory strategy or number of broods. Nonetheless, we find systematic differences in species responses, as the contraction in the breeding period was found almost exclusively in resident and short-distance migrating species, which generally breed early in the season. Overall, changes in the timing and duration of reproduction may potentially lead to more broods co-occurring in the early breeding season—a critical time for species’ reproductive success. Our findings highlight the importance of quantifying phenological change across species and over the entire season to reveal shifts in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction.

Land surface phenology and greenness in Alpine grasslands driven by seasonal snow and meteorological factors

Snow accumulation and melt have multiple impacts on Land Surface Phenology (LSP) and greenness in Alpine grasslands. Our understanding of these impacts and their interactions with meteorological factors are still limited. In this study, we investigate this topic by analyzing LSP dynamics together with potential drivers, using satellite imagery and other data sources. LSP (start and end of season) and greenness metrics were extracted from time series of vegetation and leaf area index. As explanatory variables we used snow accumulation, snow cover melt date and meteorological factors. We tested for inter-annual co-variation of LSP and greenness metrics with seasonal snow and meteorological metrics across elevations and for four sub-regions of natural grasslands in the Swiss Alps over the period 2003-2014. We found strong positive correlations of snow cover melt date and snow accumulation with the start of season, especially at higher elevation. Autumn temperature was found to be important at the end of season below 2000 m above sea level (m asl), while autumn precipitation was relevant above 2000 m asl, indicating climatic growth limiting factors to be elevation dependent. The effects of snow and meteorological factors on greenness revealed that this metric tends to be influenced by temperatures at high elevations, and by snow melt date at low elevations. Given the high sensitivity of alpine grassland ecosystems, these results suggest that alpine grasslands may be particularly affected by future changes in seasonal snow, to varying degree depending on elevation.

Climatic variables influence the temporal dynamics of an anuran metacommunity in a nonstationary way

Understanding the temporal dynamics of communities is crucial to predict how communities respond to climate change. Several factors can promote variation in phenology among species, including tracking of seasonal resources, adaptive responses to other species, demographic stochasticity, and physiological constraints. The activities of ectothermic vertebrates are sensitive to climatic variations due to the effect of temperature and humidity on species physiology. However, most studies on temporal dynamics have analyzed multi-year data and do not have resolution to discriminate within-year patterns that can determine community assembly cycles. Here, we tested the temporal stability and synchrony of calling activity and also how climatic variables influence anuran species composition throughout the year in a metacommunity in the Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil. Using a multivariate method, we described how the relationship between species composition and climatic variables changes through time. The metacommunity showed a weak synchronous spatial pattern, meaning that species responded independently to environmental variation. Interestingly, species composition exhibited a nonstationary response to climate, suggesting that climate affects species composition differently depending on the season. The species-climate relationship was stronger during the spring, summer, and winter, mainly influenced by temperature, rainfall, and humidity. Thus, temporal community dynamics seem to be mediated by species life-history traits, in which independent fluctuations promote community stability in temporally varying environments.

Optimization of capture-recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper

Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture-recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture-recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture-recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (-6% to -27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture-recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture-recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort.