Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Deep learning to extract the meteorological by-catch of wildlife cameras

Microclimate-proximal climatic variation at scales of metres and minutes-can exacerbate or mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, most microclimate studies are temperature centric, and do not consider meteorological factors such as sunshine, hail and snow. Meanwhile, remote cameras have become a primary tool to monitor wild plants and animals, even at micro-scales, and deep learning tools rapidly convert images into ecological data. However, deep learning applications for wildlife imagery have focused exclusively on living subjects. Here, we identify an overlooked opportunity to extract latent, ecologically relevant meteorological information. We produce an annotated image dataset of micrometeorological conditions across 49 wildlife cameras in South Africa's Maloti-Drakensberg and the Swiss Alps. We train ensemble deep learning models to classify conditions as overcast, sunshine, hail or snow. We achieve 91.7% accuracy on test cameras not seen during training. Furthermore, we show how effective accuracy is raised to 96% by disregarding 14.1% of classifications where ensemble member models did not reach a consensus. For two-class weather classification (overcast vs. sunshine) in a novel location in Svalbard, Norway, we achieve 79.3% accuracy (93.9% consensus accuracy), outperforming a benchmark model from the computer vision literature (75.5% accuracy). Our model rapidly classifies sunshine, snow and hail in almost 2 million unlabelled images. Resulting micrometeorological data illustrated common seasonal patterns of summer hailstorms and autumn snowfalls across mountains in the northern and southern hemispheres. However, daily patterns of sunshine and shade diverged between sites, impacting daily temperature cycles. Crucially, we leverage micrometeorological data to demonstrate that (1) experimental warming using open-top chambers shortens early snow events in autumn, and (2) image-derived sunshine marginally outperforms sensor-derived temperature when predicting bumblebee foraging. These methods generate novel micrometeorological variables in synchrony with biological recordings, enabling new insights from an increasingly global network of wildlife cameras.

Experimental warming altered plant functional traits and their coordination in a permafrost ecosystem

Knowledge about changes in plant functional traits is valuable for the mechanistic understanding of warming effects on ecosystem functions. However, observations have tended to focus on aboveground plant traits, and there is little information about changes in belowground plant traits or the coordination of above- and belowground traits under climate warming, particularly in permafrost ecosystems. Based on a 7-yr field warming experiment, we measured 26 above- and belowground plant traits of four dominant species, and explored community functional composition and trait networks in response to experimental warming in a permafrost ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau. Experimental warming shifted community-level functional traits toward more acquisitive values, with earlier green-up, greater plant height, larger leaves, higher photosynthetic resource-use efficiency, thinner roots, and greater specific root length and root nutrient concentrations. However, warming had a negligible effect in terms of functional diversity. In addition, warming shifted hub traits which have the highest centrality in the network from specific root area to leaf area. These results demonstrate that above- and belowground traits exhibit consistent adaptive strategies, with more acquisitive traits in warmer environments. Such changes could provide an adaptive advantage for plants in response to environmental change.

Satellite observed reversal in trends of spring phenology in the middle-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the global warming hiatus

The start of the growing season (SOS) is essential to track the responses of vegetation to climate change. However, recent findings on whether the SOS in the middle-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continued to advance or reversed during the global warming hiatus were not consistent. It is necessary to investigate the causes of this controversy and to examine the relationship between the SOS and preseason temperature trends. To this end, we first applied four widely used phenology extraction methods to derive the SOS from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset and then used the ensemble empirical modal decomposition (EEMD) method to extract the nonlinear trends of the SOS and preseason temperature. Our results clarify, for the first time, that the limitations of the linear assumption-based trend analysis methods are an important but overlooked cause of the discrepancies among existing studies on whether the SOS was advanced or delayed in the NH (>30° N) during the global warming hiatus. We further revealed the range of the mismatches between the SOS and preseason temperature trends at the latitude, altitude and biome levels. Specifically, we discovered that the SOS in the NH (>30° N) obtained by the four phenology extraction methods showed a significant reversal from advance to delay during the global warming hiatus, and the corresponding average rate of change was very small. The area showing increasing preseason temperatures decreased during the global warming hiatus, but it always occupied most of the NH (>30° N). However, delayed SOS trends were dominant in the NH from 50° N to 60° N, above 3000 m and in biomes other than TBMF and BF. Accordingly, using an EEMD-like approach to evaluate the changes in the SOS and preseason temperature is necessary for improving our understanding of the changes in the SOS and their association with climate.

Warming reduced flowering synchrony and extended community flowering season in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

The timing of phenological events is highly sensitive to climate change, and may influence ecosystem structure and function. Although changes in flowering phenology among species under climate change have been reported widely, how species-specific shifts will affect phenological synchrony and community-level phenology patterns remains unclear. We conducted a manipulative experiment of warming and precipitation addition and reduction to explore how climate change affected flowering phenology at the species and community levels in an alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We found that warming advanced the first and last flowering times differently and with no consistent shifts in flowering duration among species, resulting in the entire flowering period of species emerging earlier in the growing season. Early-flowering species were more sensitive to warming than mid- and late-flowering species, thereby reducing flowering synchrony among species and extending the community-level flowering season. However, precipitation and its interactions with warming had no significant effects on flowering phenology. Our results suggest that temperature regulates flowering phenology from the species to community levels in this alpine meadow community, yet how species shifted their flowering timing and duration in response to warming varied. This species-level divergence may reshape flowering phenology in this alpine plant community. Decreasing flowering synchrony among species and the extension of community-level flowering seasons under warming may alter future trophic interactions, with cascading consequences to community and ecosystem function.

Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale

PREMISE

Phenological sensitivity, or the degree to which a species' phenology shifts in response to warming, is an important parameter for comparing and predicting species' responses to climate change. Phenological sensitivity is often measured using herbarium specimens or local studies in natural populations. These approaches differ widely in spatiotemporal scales, yet few studies explicitly consider effects of the geographic extent and resolution of climate data when comparing phenological sensitivities quantified from different data sets for a given species.

METHODS

We compared sensitivity of flowering phenology to growing degree days of the alpine plant Silene acaulis using two data sets: herbarium specimens and a 6 yr observational study in four populations at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We investigated differences in phenological sensitivity obtained using variable spatial scales and climate data sources.

RESULTS

Herbarium specimens underestimated phenological sensitivity compared to observational data, even when herbarium samples were limited geographically or to nearby weather station data. However, when observational data were paired with broader-scale climate data, as is typically used in herbarium data sets, estimates of phenological sensitivity were more similar.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the potential for variation in data source, geographic scale, and accuracy of macroclimate data to produce very different estimates of phenological responses to climate change. Accurately predicting phenological shifts would benefit from comparisons between methods that estimate climate variables and phenological sensitivity over a variety of spatial scales.

Functional microbial ecology in arctic soils: the need for a year-round perspective

The microbial ecology of arctic and sub-arctic soils is an important aspect of the global carbon cycle, due to the sensitivity of the large soil carbon stocks to ongoing climate warming. These regions are characterized by strong climatic seasonality, but the emphasis of most studies on the short vegetation growing season could potentially limit our ability to predict year-round ecosystem functions. We compiled a database of studies from arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments that include sampling of microbial community and functions outside the growing season. We found that for studies comparing across seasons, in most environments, microbial biomass and community composition vary intra-annually, with the spring thaw period often identified by researchers as the most dynamic time of year. This seasonality of microbial communities will have consequences for predictions of ecosystem function under climate change if it results in: seasonality in process kinetics of microbe-mediated functions; intra-annual variation in the importance of different (a)biotic drivers; and/or potential temporal asynchrony between climate change-related perturbations and their corresponding effects. Future research should focus on (i) sampling throughout the entire year; (ii) linking these multi-season measures of microbial community composition with corresponding functional or physiological measurements to elucidate the temporal dynamics of the links between them; and (iii) identifying dominant biotic and abiotic drivers of intra-annual variation in different ecological contexts.

Effects of drought on grassland phenology depend on functional types

Shifts in flowering phenology are important indicators of climate change. However, the role of precipitation in driving phenology is far less understood compared with other environmental cues, such as temperature. We use a precipitation reduction gradient to test the direction and magnitude of effects on reproductive phenology and reproduction across 11 plant species in a temperate grassland, a moisture-limited ecosystem. Our experiment was conducted in a single, relatively wet year. We examine the effects of precipitation for species, functional types, and the community. Our results provide evidence that reduced precipitation shifts phenology, alters flower and fruit production, and that the magnitude and direction of the responses depend on functional type and species. For example, early-blooming species shift toward earlier flowering, whereas later-blooming species shift toward later flowering. Because of opposing species-level shifts, there is no overall shift in community-level phenology. This study provides experimental evidence that changes in rainfall can drive phenological shifts. Our results additionally highlight the importance of understanding how plant functional types govern responses to changing climate conditions, which is relevant for forecasting phenology and community-level changes. Specifically, the implications of divergent phenological shifts between early- and late-flowering species include resource scarcity for pollinators and seed dispersers and new temporal windows for invasion.

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994-2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm^-2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

Impact of ambient temperature, precipitation and seven years of experimental warming and nutrient addition on fruit production in an alpine heath and meadow community

Alpine and polar regions are predicted to be among the most vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation, and nutrient availability. We carried out a seven-year factorial experiment with warming and nutrient addition in two alpine vegetation communities. We analyzed the relationship between fruit production and monthly mean, maximum, and min temperatures during the fall of the pre-fruiting year, the fruiting summer, and the whole fruit production period, and measured the effects of precipitation and growing and thawing degree days (GDD & TDD) on fruit production. Nutrient addition (heath: 27.88 ± 3.19 fold change at the end of the experiment; meadow: 18.02 ± 4.07) and combined nutrient addition and warming (heath: 20.63 ± 29.34 fold change at the end of the experiment; meadow: 18.21 ± 16.28) increased total fruit production and fruit production of graminoids. Fruit production of evergreen and deciduous shrubs fluctuated among the treatments and years in both the heath and meadow. Pre-maximum temperatures had a negative effect on fruit production in both communities, while current year maximum temperatures had a positive impact on fruit production in the meadow. Pre-minimum, pre-mean, current mean, total minimum, and total mean temperatures were all positively correlated with fruit production in the meadow. The current year and total precipitation had a negative effect on the fruit production of deciduous shrubs in the heath. GDD had a positive effect on fruit production in both communities, while TDD only impacted fruit production in the meadow. Increased nutrient availability increased fruit production over time in the high alpine plant communities, while experimental warming had either no effect or a negative effect. Deciduous shrubs were the most sensitive to climate parameters in both communities, and the meadow was more sensitive than the heath. The difference in importance of TDD for fruit production may be due to differences in snow cover in the two communities.

Summer temperature—but not growing season length—influences radial growth of Salix arctica in coastal Arctic tundra

Arctic climate change is leading to an advance of plant phenology (the timing of life history events) with uncertain impacts on tundra ecosystems. Although the lengthening of the growing season is thought to lead to increased plant growth, we have few studies of how plant phenology change is altering tundra plant productivity. Here, we test the correspondence between 14 years of Salix arctica phenology data and radial growth on Qikiqtaruk–Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada. We analysed stems from 28 individuals using dendroecology and linear mixed-effect models to test the statistical power of growing season length and climate variables to individually predict radial growth. We found that summer temperature best explained annual variation in radial growth. We found no strong evidence that leaf emergence date, earlier leaf senescence date, or total growing season length had any direct or lagged effects on radial growth. Radial growth was also not explained by interannual variation in precipitation, MODIS surface greenness (NDVI), or sea ice concentration. Our results demonstrate that at this site, for the widely distributed species S. arctica, temperature—but not growing season length—influences radial growth. These findings challenge the assumption that advancing phenology and longer growing seasons will increase the productivity of all plant species in Arctic tundra ecosystems.

Driving Climatic Factors at Critical Plant Developmental Stages for Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Alpine Grassland Productivity

Determining the driving climatic factors at critical periods and potential legacy effects is crucial for grassland productivity predictions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, studies with limited and ex situ ground samples from highly heterogeneous alpine meadows brought great uncertainties. This study determined the key climatic factors at critical plant developmental stages and the impact of previous plant growth status for interannual aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) variations in different QTP grassland types. We hypothesize that the impact of climatic factors on grassland productivity varies in different periods and different vegetation types, while its legacy effects are not great. Pixel-based partial least squares regression was used to associate interannual ANPP with precipitation and air temperature at different developmental stages and prior-year ANPP from 2000 to 2019 using remote sensing techniques. Results indicated different findings from previous studies. Precipitation at the reproductive stage (July–August) was the most prominent controlling factor for ANPP which was also significantly affected by precipitation and temperature at the withering (September–October) and dormant stage (November–February), respectively. The influence of precipitation was more significant in alpine meadows than in alpine steppes, while the differentiated responses to climatic factors were attributed to differences in water consumption at different developmental stages induced by leaf area changes, bud sprouting, growth, and protection from frost damage. The prior-year ANPP showed a non-significant impact on ANPP of current year, except for alpine steppes, and this impact was much less than that of current-year climatic factors, which may be attributed to the reduced annual ANPP variations related to the inter-annual carbon circulation of alpine perennial herbaceous plants and diverse root/shoot ratios in different vegetation types. These findings can assist in improving the interannual ANPP predictions on the QTP under global climate change.

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.

Reproductive Biology of Rheum webbianum Royle, a Vulnerable Medicinal Herb From Alpines of North-Western Himalaya

Information on reproductive biology and pollination ecology studies of threatened plants are essential to develop strategies for their sustainable utilization and effective conservation. As such, these studies were conducted on Rheum webbianum, a high-value "vulnerable" medicinal herb of the north-western Himalaya. This species presents a unique mode of reproductive behavior through the involvement of different floral events, including the movement of reproductive organs. The plants survive extremely cold conditions through underground perennating rhizomes that sprout into juvenile shoots with the onset of the favorable climatic conditions. The peduncle arises from the axils of the radical leaves, bearing a globular collection of densely arranged hermaphrodite flowers with temporally separated male and female phases; the male phase precedes the female phase (protandry). Anther dehiscence and stigma receptivity is post-anthesis. Anthers dehisce longitudinally along margins, liberating a large mass of spherical and tricolpate pollen with spinulose exine. Pollen viability decreased to < 10% on day 9. Pistil is tristylous, with each style terminating into a fan-shaped stigma lobe. The pollen receptive surface of each stigmatic lobe remains incurved at an angle of 360° and shows upward movement after anthesis, forming a funnel-like structure at an angle of 180° with respect to the ovary. Pollination syndrome is ambophilous. Spontaneous autogamy or geitonogamy to a certain extent is achieved in this species due to the arrangement of flowers in the inflorescence and overlapping of male and female reproductive phases among them. Incurved stigmatic lobes and outward movement of stamens too facilitate outcrossing. Pollen/ovule ratio estimates, results of pollination experiments on breeding behavior, outcrossing, and self-compatibility indices demonstrated that plants are self-compatible and cross-fertile.

Historical Trends and Projections of Snow Cover over the High Arctic: A Review

Snow is the dominant form of precipitation and the main cryospheric feature of the High Arctic (HA) covering its land, sea, lake and river ice surfaces for a large part of the year. The snow cover in the HA is involved in climate feedbacks that influence the global climate system, and greatly impacts the hydrology and the ecosystems of the coldest biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. The ongoing global warming trend and its polar amplification is threatening the long-term stability of the snow cover in the HA. This study presents an extensive review of the literature on observed and projected snow cover conditions in the High Arctic region. Several key snow cover metrics were reviewed, including snowfall, snow cover duration (SCD), snow cover extent (SCE), snow depth (SD), and snow water equivalent (SWE) since 1930 based on in situ, remote sensing and simulations results. Changes in snow metrics were reviewed and outlined from the continental to the local scale. The reviewed snow metrics displayed different sensitivities to past and projected changes in precipitation and air temperature. Despite the overall increase in snowfall, both observed from historical data and projected into the future, some snow cover metrics displayed consistent decreasing trends, with SCE and SCD showing the most widespread and steady decreases over the last century in the HA, particularly in the spring and summer seasons. However, snow depth and, in some regions SWE, have mostly increased; nevertheless, both SD and SWE are projected to decrease by 2030. By the end of the century, the extent of Arctic spring snow cover will be considerably less than today (10–35%). Model simulations project higher winter snowfall, higher or lower maximum snow depth depending on regions, and a shortened snow season by the end of the century. The spatial pattern of snow metrics trends for both historical and projected climates exhibit noticeable asymmetry among the different HA sectors, with the largest observed and anticipated changes occurring over the Canadian HA.

Responses of root phenology in ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum to transplantation and warming in the Arctic

The effect of climate change on phenology and growth is less understood for belowground plant tissues than for aboveground plant tissues, particularly in high-latitude regions. Ecotypes within a species adapted to a locality may display different responses to climate change. We established two common garden plots in the Arctic tundra north of the Brooks Range in northern Alaska. Three ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum along a latitudinal gradient were transplanted into common gardens, and half of the transplants were warmed using open-top chambers (OTCs). Minirhizotrons were used to track the root phenology during the growing seasons of 2016 and 2017. Warming with OTCs (approximately +1 °C in air) did not affect the root biomass, root production or root phenology. The southern ecotype (from 67°16'N) of Eriophorum vaginatum transplanted northward experienced delayed startup and root production compared to two northern ecotypes (from 68°38'N and 69°25'N), although significant differences were not observed in the three ecotypes in terms of root production, root biomass and growth duration at the two sites. Our results suggest that as the climate warms, ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum may be able to adjust their duration of root growth and root productivity by phenotypic plasticity, although the degree of plasticity controlling the root startup time may vary between southern and northern ecotypes.

Nutrient Analysis and Species Diversity of Alpine Grasslands: A Comparative Analysis of Less Studied Biodiversity Hotspots

The alpine grasslands of Kashmir Himalaya act as a treasure house of floristic biodiversity. They have remained largely unstudied because of their remoteness and inaccessibility. It is imperative to have quantitative studies of these areas to allow the long-term monitoring of flora in these fragile ecosystems. During the present study, nutrient analysis and species diversity of some alpine grasslands were investigated. Electroconductivity (EC) of the soils ranged between 0.12 and 0.33 (dSm−1). With an increase in altitude and precipitation and a decrease in temperature, soil pH and available macro-nutrients (OC, N, P, K) show a considerable decrease. Sixty-six plant species belonging to twenty-nine families and fifty-one genera were reported with members predominantly from the Asteraceae, Rosaceae and Plantaginaceae families. Seven species were common to all study areas and Renyi diversity profiles showed that Kongwattan was the most diverse followed by Poshpathri and Yousmarg. The results of the Sorensen β diversity index showed a relatively lower dissimilarity index among the three studied alpine sites. In the majority of the growth forms, growth initiation was recorded in April, whereas senescence occurred in September. The highest bloom was seen in June-July. The plant species exhibited a greater variability in their phenophases under different environmental conditions and altitudinal gradients. Plants were more vigorous at lower altitudes and showed rapid response to the prevailing conditions. Stoloniferous forbs and tussock forming graminoids such as Sibbaldia cuneata, Trifolium repens, Plantago major, Trifolium pratense, Poa compressa, Poa angustifolia, and Plantago lanceolata showed a greater importance value index (IVI). The sedentary system of livestock rearing at Yousmarg resulted in the decreased density of the palatable species. This study allowed us to conclude that direct knowledge of soil nutrient composition and species diversity in alpine ecosystems can enhance conservation and ensure better management practices over a period of time.

Carbon response of tundra ecosystems to advancing greenup and snowmelt in Alaska

The ongoing disproportionate increases in temperature and precipitation over the Arctic region may greatly alter the latitudinal gradients in greenup and snowmelt timings as well as associated carbon dynamics of tundra ecosystems. Here we use remotely-sensed and ground-based datasets and model results embedding snowmelt timing in phenology at seven tundra flux tower sites in Alaska during 2001-2018, showing that the carbon response to early greenup or delayed snowmelt varies greatly depending upon local climatic limits. Increases in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) due to early greenup were amplified at the higher latitudes where temperature and water strongly colimit vegetation growth, while NEP decreases due to delayed snowmelt were alleviated by a relief of water stress. Given the high likelihood of more frequent delayed snowmelt at higher latitudes, this study highlights the importance of understanding the role of snowmelt timing in vegetation growth and terrestrial carbon cycles across warming Arctic ecosystems.

Snow melt timing acts independently and in conjunction with temperature accumulation to drive subalpine plant phenology

Organisms use environmental cues to align their phenology-the timing of life events-with sets of abiotic and biotic conditions that favor the successful completion of their life cycle. Climate change has altered the environmental cues organisms use to track climate, leading to shifts in phenology with the potential to affect a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the drivers of phenological shifts is critical to predicting future responses, but disentangling the effects of temperature from precipitation on phenology is often challenging because they tend to covary. We addressed this knowledge gap in a high-elevation environment where phenological shifts are associated with both the timing of spring snow melt and temperature. We factorially crossed early snow melt and passive warming treatments to (1) disentangle the effects of snow melt timing and warming on the phenology of flowering and fruiting and reproductive success in three subalpine plant species (Delphinium nuttallianum, Valeriana edulis, and Potentilla pulcherrima); and (2) assess whether snow melt acts via temperature accumulation or some other aspect of the environment (e.g., soil moisture) to affect phenological events. Both the timing and duration of flowering and fruiting responded to the climate treatments, but the effect of snow melt timing and warming varied among species and phenological stages. The combined effects of the treatments on phenology were always additive, and the snow melt treatment often affected phenology even when the warming treatment did not. Despite marked responses of phenology to climate manipulations, the species showed little change in reproductive success, with only one species producing fewer seeds in response to warming (Delphinium, -56%). We also found that snow melt timing can act both through temperature accumulation and as a distinct cue for phenology, and these effects are not mutually exclusive. Our results show that one environmental cue, here snow melt timing, may act through multiple mechanisms to shift phenology.

Comparison of the distribution and phenology of Arctic Mountain plants between the early 20th and 21st centuries

Arctic plants are adapted to climatic variability, but their long-term responses to warming remain unclear. Responses may occur by range shifts, phenological adjustments in growth and reproduction, or both. Here, we compare distribution and phenology of 83 arctic and boreal mountain species, sampled identically in the early 20th (1917-1919) and 21st centuries (2017-2018) from a region of northern Sweden that has warmed significantly. We test two compensatory hypotheses to high-latitude warming-upward shifts in distribution, and earlier or extended growth and reproduction. For distribution, we show dramatic upward migration by 69% of species, averaging 6.1 m per decade, especially boreal woodland taxa whose upward expansion has reduced arctic montane habitat by 30%. Twenty percent of summit species showed distributional shifts but downward, especially moisture-associated snowbed flora. For phenology, we detected wide inter-annual variability in the onset of leafing and flowering in both eras. However, there was no detectable change in growing-season length, relating to two mechanisms. First, plot-level snow melt data starting in 1917 demonstrated that melt date, rather than vernal temperatures, better predicts plant emergence, with snow melt influenced by warmer years having greater snowfall-warmer springs did not always result in earlier emergence because snowbeds can persist longer. Second, the onset of reproductive senescence between eras was similar, even when plant emergence was earlier by a month, possibly due to intensified summer heat stress or hard-wired 'canalization' where senescence occurs regardless of summer temperature. Migrations in this system have possibly buffered arctic species against displacement by boreal expansion and warming, but ongoing temperature increases, woody plant invasion, and a potential lack of flexibility in timing of senescence may foreshadow challenges.

Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change

Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique data set from the Russian 'Chronicles of Nature' network to analyse the long-term (1976-2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) phenology by -2.2, -0.7 and -1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (-3.1 and -3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (-1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0-1.2 days/decade), presumably due to the stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners.

Plant phenological responses to experimental warming-A synthesis

Although there is abundant evidence that plant phenology is shifting with climatic warming, the magnitude and direction of these shifts can depend on the environmental context, plant species, and even the specific phenophase of study. These disparities have resulted in difficulties predicting future phenological shifts, detecting phenological mismatches and identifying other ecological consequences. Experimental warming studies are uniquely poised to help us understand how climate warming will impact plant phenology, and meta-analyses allow us to expose broader trends from individual studies. Here, we review 70 studies comprised 1226 observations of plant phenology under experimental warming. We find that plants are advancing their early-season phenophases (bud break, leaf-out, and flowering) in response to warming while marginally delaying their late-season phenophases (leaf coloration, leaf fall, and senescence). We find consistency in the magnitude of phenological shifts across latitude, elevation, and habitat types, whereas the effect of warming on nonnative annual plants is two times larger than the effect of warming on native perennial plants. Encouragingly for researchers, plant phenological responses were generally consistent across a variety of experimental warming methods. However, we found numerous gaps in the experimental warming literature, limiting our ability to predict the effects of warming on phenological shifts. In particular, studies outside of temperate ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere, or those that focused on late-season phenophases, annual plants, nonnative plants, or woody plants and grasses, were underrepresented in our data set. Future experimental warming studies could further refine our understanding of phenological responses to warming by setting up experiments outside of traditionally studied biogeographic zones and measuring multiple plant phenophases (especially late-season phenophases) across species of varying origin, growth form, and life cycle.

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Extirpated prairie species demonstrate more variable phenological responses to warming than extant congeners

PREMISE

Shifting phenology in response to climate is one mechanism that can promote population persistence and geographic spread; therefore, species with limited ability to phenologically track changing environmental conditions may be more susceptible to population declines. Alternatively, apparently nonresponding species may demonstrate divergent responses to multiple environmental conditions experienced across seasons.

METHODS

Capitalizing on herbarium records from across the midwestern United States and on detailed botanical surveys documenting local extinctions over the past century, we investigated whether extirpated and extant taxa differ in their phenological responses to temperature and precipitation during winter and spring (during flowering and the growing season before flowering) or in the magnitude of their flowering time shift over the past century.

RESULTS

Although warmer temperatures across seasons advanced flowering, extirpated and extant species differed in the magnitude of their phenological responses to winter and spring warming. Extirpated species demonstrated inconsistent phenological responses to warmer spring temperatures, whereas extant species consistently advanced flowering in response to warmer spring temperatures. In contrast, extirpated species advanced flowering more than extant species in response to warmer winter temperatures. Greater spring precipitation tended to delay flowering for both extirpated and extant taxa. Finally, both extirpated and extant taxa delayed flowering over time.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the importance of understanding phenological responses to seasonal warming and indicates that extirpated species may demonstrate more variable phenological responses to temperature than extant congeners, a finding consistent with the hypothesis that appropriate phenological responses may reduce species' likelihood of extinction.

Predicting effects of warming requires a whole-of-life cycle perspective: a case study in the alpine herb Oreomyrrhis eriopoda

Global warming is affecting plant phenology, growth and reproduction in complex ways and is particularly apparent in vulnerable alpine environments. Warming affects reproductive and vegetative traits, as well as phenology, but seldom do studies assess these traits in concert and across the whole of a plant's life cycle, particularly in wild species. Thus, it is difficult to extrapolate from such effects to predictions about the persistence of species or their conservation and management. We assessed trait variation in response to warming in Oreomyrrhis eriopoda, an Australian native montane herb, in which populations vary in germination strategy (degree of dormancy) and growth characteristics as a function of ecological factors. Warming accelerated growth in the early stages of development, particularly for populations with non-dormant seed. The differences in growth disappeared at the transition to reproduction, when an accelerating effect on phenology emerged, to varying degrees depending on germination strategy. Overall, warming reduced flower and seed production and increased mortality, indicating a reduction in reproductive opportunities, particularly for populations with dormant seed. Developmental condition affected germination strategy of the next generation seed, leading to increased degree of dormancy and slowed germination rate. But there were no whole-scale shifts in strategy or total germination percent. Following through the life cycle reveals that warming will have some potentially positive effects (early growth rates) and some negative effects (reduced reproductive output). Ultimately, warming impacts will depend on how those effects play out in the field: early establishment and an accelerated trajectory to seed maturity may offset the tradeoff with overall seed production. Small differences among germination strategies likewise may cascade to larger effects, with important implications for persistence of species in the alpine landscape. Thus, to understand and manage the response of wild species to warming takes a whole-of-life perspective and attention to ecologically significant patterns of within-species variation.

Winter snow and spring temperature have differential effects on vegetation phenology and productivity across Arctic plant communities

Tundra dominates two-thirds of the unglaciated, terrestrial Arctic. Although this region has experienced rapid and widespread changes in vegetation phenology and productivity over the last several decades, the specific climatic drivers responsible for this change remain poorly understood. Here we quantified the effect of winter snowpack and early spring temperature conditions on growing season vegetation phenology (timing of the start, peak, and end of the growing season) and productivity of the dominant tundra vegetation communities of Arctic Alaska. We used daily remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and daily snowpack and temperature variables produced by SnowModel and MicroMet, coupled physically based snow and meteorological modeling tools, to (1) determine the most important snowpack and thermal controls on tundra vegetation phenology and productivity and (2) describe the direction of these relationships within each vegetation community. Our results show that soil temperature under the snowpack, snowmelt timing, and air temperature following snowmelt are the most important drivers of growing season timing and productivity among Arctic vegetation communities. Air temperature after snowmelt was the most important control on timing of season start and end, with warmer conditions contributing to earlier phenology in all vegetation communities. In contrast, the controls on the timing of peak season and productivity also included snowmelt timing and soil temperature under the snowpack, dictated in part by the snow insulating capacity. The results of this novel analysis suggest that while future warming effects on phenology may be consistent across communities of the tundra biome, warming may result in divergent, community-specific productivity responses if coupled with reduced snow insulating capacity lowers winter soil temperature and potential nutrient cycling in the soil.

Emerging dominance of summer rainfall driving High Arctic terrestrial-aquatic connectivity

Hydrological transformations induced by climate warming are causing Arctic annual fluvial energy to shift from skewed (snowmelt-dominated) to multimodal (snowmelt- and rainfall-dominated) distributions. We integrated decade-long hydrometeorological and biogeochemical data from the High Arctic to show that shifts in the timing and magnitude of annual discharge patterns and stream power budgets are causing Arctic material transfer regimes to undergo fundamental changes. Increased late summer rainfall enhanced terrestrial-aquatic connectivity for dissolved and particulate material fluxes. Permafrost disturbances (<3% of the watersheds’ areal extent) reduced watershed-scale dissolved organic carbon export, offsetting concurrent increased export in undisturbed watersheds. To overcome the watersheds’ buffering capacity for transferring particulate material (30 ± 9 Watt), rainfall events had to increase by an order of magnitude, indicating the landscape is primed for accelerated geomorphological change when future rainfall magnitudes and consequent pluvial responses exceed the current buffering capacity of the terrestrial-aquatic continuum.

Climate warming is causing annual Arctic fluvial energy budgets to shift seasonality from snowmelt-dominated to snowmelt- and rainfall-dominated hydrological regimes, enhancing late summer and fall terrestrial-aquatic connectivity and higher material fluxes.

Effects of ambient climate and three warming treatments on fruit production in an alpine, subarctic meadow community

PREMISE

Climate change is having major impacts on alpine and arctic regions, and inter-annual variations in temperature are likely to increase. How increased climate variability will impact plant reproduction is unclear.

METHODS

In a 4-year study on fruit production by an alpine plant community in northern Sweden, we applied three warming regimes: (1) a static level of warming with open-top chambers (OTC), (2) press warming, a yearly stepwise increase in warming, and (3) pulse warming, a single-year pulse event of higher warming. We analyzed the relationship between fruit production and monthly temperatures during the budding period, fruiting period, and whole fruit production period and the effect of winter and summer precipitation on fruit production.

RESULTS

Year and treatment had a significant effect on total fruit production by evergreen shrubs, Cassiope tetragona, and Dryas octopetala, with large variations between treatments and years. Year, but not treatment, had a significant effect on deciduous shrubs and graminoids, both of which increased fruit production over the 4 years, while forbs were negatively affected by the press warming, but not by year. Fruit production was influenced by ambient temperature during the previous-year budding period, current-year fruiting period, and whole fruit production period. Minimum and average temperatures were more important than maximum temperature. In general, fruit production was negatively correlated with increased precipitation.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that predicted increased climate variability and increased precipitation due to climate change may affect plant reproductive output and long-term community dynamics in alpine meadow communities.

Monitoring responses of vegetation phenology and productivity to extreme climatic conditions using remote sensing across different sub-regions of China

Drought is a major natural disaster that significantly impacts the susceptibility and flexibility of the ecosystem by changing vegetation phenology and productivity. This study aimed to investigate the impact of extreme climatic variation on vegetation phenology and productivity over the four sub-regions of China from 2000 to 2017. Daily rain gauge precipitation and air temperature datasets were used to estimate the trends, and to compute the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Remote sensing-based Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data from a moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to characterize vegetation phenology. The results revealed that (1) air temperature had significant increasing trends (P < 0.05) in all sub-regions. Precipitation showed a non-significant increasing trend in Northwest China (NWC) and insignificant decreasing trends in North China (NC), Qinghai Tibet area (QTA), and South China (SC). (2) Integrated enhanced vegetation index (iEVI) and SPEI variations depicted that 2011 and 2016 were the extremely driest and wettest years during 2000-2017. (3) Rapid changes were observed in the vegetation phenology and productivity between 2011 and 2016. In 2011, changes in the vegetation phenology with the length of the growing season (ΔLGS) = was - 14 ± 36 days. In 2016, the overall net effect changed at the onset and end of the growing season with ΔLGS of 34 ± 71 days. The change in iEVI per SPEI increased rapidly with a changing rate of 0.16 from arid (NWC, and QTA) to semi-arid (NWC, QTA and NC) and declined with a rate of - 0.04 from semi-humid (QTA, NC, and SC) to humid (SC) region. A higher association was observed between iEVI and SPEI as compared to iEVI and precipitation. Our finding exposed that north China is more sensitive to climatic variation.

Spatial information from the odour environment in mammalian olfaction

The sense of smell is an essential modality for many species, in particular nocturnal and crepuscular mammals, to gather information about their environment. Olfactory cues provide information over a large range of distances, allowing behaviours ranging from simple detection and recognition of objects, to tracking trails and navigating using odour plumes from afar. In this review, we discuss the features of the natural olfactory environment and provide a brief overview of how odour information can be sampled and might be represented and processed by the mammalian olfactory system. Finally, we discuss recent behavioural approaches that address how mammals extract spatial information from the environment in three different contexts: odour trail tracking, odour plume tracking and, more general, olfactory-guided navigation. Recent technological developments have seen the spatiotemporal aspect of mammalian olfaction gain significant attention, and we discuss both the promising aspects of rapidly developing paradigms and stimulus control technologies as well as their limitations. We conclude that, while still in its beginnings, research on the odour environment offers an entry point into understanding the mechanisms how mammals extract information about space.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Parasitoids indicate major climate-induced shifts in arctic communities

Climatic impacts are especially pronounced in the Arctic, which as a region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Here, we investigate how mean climatic conditions and rates of climatic change impact parasitoid insect communities in 16 localities across the Arctic. We focus on parasitoids in a widespread habitat, Dryas heathlands, and describe parasitoid community composition in terms of larval host use (i.e., parasitoid use of herbivorous Lepidoptera vs. pollinating Diptera) and functional groups differing in their closeness of host associations (koinobionts vs. idiobionts). Of the latter, we expect idiobionts-as being less fine-tuned to host development-to be generally less tolerant to cold temperatures, since they are confined to attacking hosts pupating and overwintering in relatively exposed locations. To further test our findings, we assess whether similar climatic variables are associated with host abundances in a 22 year time series from Northeast Greenland. We find sites which have experienced a temperature rise in summer while retaining cold winters to be dominated by parasitoids of Lepidoptera, with the reverse being true for the parasitoids of Diptera. The rate of summer temperature rise is further associated with higher levels of herbivory, suggesting higher availability of lepidopteran hosts and changes in ecosystem functioning. We also detect a matching signal over time, as higher summer temperatures, coupled with cold early winter soils, are related to high herbivory by lepidopteran larvae, and to declines in the abundance of dipteran pollinators. Collectively, our results suggest that in parts of the warming Arctic, Dryas is being simultaneously exposed to increased herbivory and reduced pollination. Our findings point to potential drastic and rapid consequences of climate change on multitrophic-level community structure and on ecosystem functioning and highlight the value of collaborative, systematic sampling effort.

The Importance of Incorporating Landscape Change for Predictions of Climate-Induced Plant Phenological Shifts

Warming in the high Arctic is occurring at the fastest rate on the planet, raising concerns over how this global change driver will influence plant community composition, the timing of vegetation phenological events, and the wildlife that rely on them. In this region, as much as 50% of near-surface permafrost is composed of thermally sensitive ground ice that when melted produces substantial changes in topography and microbiome conditions. We take advantage of natural variations in permafrost melt to conduct a space-for-time study on Ellesmere Island in northern Canada. We demonstrate that phenological timing can be delayed in thermokarst areas when compared to stable ground, and that this change is a function of shifting species composition in these vegetation communities as well as delayed timing within species. These findings suggest that a warming climate could result in an overall broadening of blooming and leafing windows at the landscape level when these delayed timings are taken into consideration with the projected advance of phenological timings in ice-poor areas. We emphasize that the impacts of geomorphic processes on key phenological drivers are essential for enhancing our understanding of community response to climate warming in the high Arctic, with implications for ecosystem functioning and trophic interactions.

High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese

Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects. Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change. Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis. Using long-term mark–recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017), we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year olds, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history trade-offs and long-term population trajectories.

Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring

Changes in Arctic vegetation can have important implications for trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning leading to climate feedbacks. Plot-based vegetation surveys provide detailed insight into vegetation changes at sites around the Arctic and improve our ability to predict the impacts of environmental change on tundra ecosystems. Here, we review studies of changes in plant community composition and phenology from both long-term monitoring and warming experiments in Arctic environments. We find that Arctic plant communities and species are generally sensitive to warming, but trends over a period of time are heterogeneous and complex and do not always mirror expectations based on responses to experimental manipulations. Our findings highlight the need for more geographically widespread, integrated, and comprehensive monitoring efforts that can better resolve the interacting effects of warming and other local and regional ecological factors.

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population-dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non-hunted population of high-arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual-based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age-specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green-up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non-breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density-dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density-dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population-dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.

NDVI Changes Show Warming Increases the Length of the Green Season at Tundra Communities in Northern Alaska: A Fine-Scale Analysis

A warming Arctic has been associated with increases in aboveground plant biomass, specifically shrubs, and changes in vegetation cover. However, the magnitude and direction of changes in NDVI have not been consistent across different tundra types. Here we examine the responsiveness of fine-scale NDVI values to experimental warming at eight sites in northern Alaska, United States. Warming in our eight sites ranged in duration from 2‑23 seasons. Dry, wet and moist tundra communities were monitored for canopy surface temperatures and NDVI in ambient and experimentally-warmed plots at near-daily frequencies during the summer of 2017 to assess the impact of the warming treatment on the magnitude and timing of greening. Experimental warming increased canopy-level surface temperatures across all sites (+0.47 to +3.14˚C), with the strongest warming effect occurring during June and July and for the southernmost sites. Green-up was accelerated by warming at six sites, and autumn senescence was delayed at five sites. Warming increased the magnitude of peak NDVI values at five sites, decreased it at one site, and at two sites it did not change. Warming resulted in earlier peak NDVI at three sites and no significant change in the other sites. Shrub and graminoid cover was positively correlated with the magnitude of peak NDVI (r=0.37 to 0.60) while cryptogam influence was mixed. The magnitude and timing of peak NDVI showed considerable variability across sites. Warming extended the duration of the summer green season at most sites due to accelerated greening in the spring and delayed senescence in the autumn. We show that in a warmer Arctic (as simulated by our experiment) the timing and total period of carbon gain may change. Our results suggest these changes are dependent on community composition and abundance of specific growth forms and therefore will likely impact net primary productivity and trophic interactions.

Response of vegetation carbon uptake to snow-induced phenological and physiological changes across temperate China

Snow cover, which is undergoing significant change along with global climate change, has considerable impacts on the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. However, how snow cover change affects the vegetation gross primary production (GPP) in temperate regions still requires in-depth exploration. In this study, we investigated how changes in the winter snow depth (WSD) and snowmelt date (SMD) affect spring GPP and summer GPP through their influences on the start date of the growing season (SGS) and the maximum daily GPP (GPP_max), respectively, across temperate China from 2001 to 2015, based on both in situ measurements and satellite products (i.e., GLASS GPP, WestDC snow depth and GLEAM soil moisture). Soil moisture is identified as an important factor in the snow-GPP relationship in temperate China. Since most of temperate China is water-limited, thicker snow cover along with later snowmelt generally resulted in earlier SGS via a significant increase in soil moisture (47% of the area), which lengthened the growth period and enhanced spring carbon uptake in these areas. However, in wetter regions (7% of the area), thicker snow cover with later snowmelt would be more likely to delay the SGS, thus reducing spring GPP. Moreover, although the direct impact mechanisms of snow cover dynamics on summer GPP have not been identified, the snow-induced SGS change was found to have delayed effects on summer photosynthesis capacity, as earlier SGS increased the GPP_max, and thus summer GPP. However, the photosynthesis enhanced by earlier SGS meanwhile increased the plant water consumption, which would bring water stress and reduce summer GPP if the subsequent precipitation is unable to compensate for the water consumption. Our findings on the effects of snow cover change on carbon uptake would provide the basic mechanisms for assessing how future climate change will affect ecosystem productivity.

The Changbai Alpine Shrub Tundra Will Be Replaced by Herbaceous Tundra under Global Climate Change

Significant replacement of shrub species by herbaceous species has been observed in the Changbai alpine tundra zone, China, since the 1990s. This study used plot surveys to analyze variations in the spatial distribution of dominant plants and to ascertain the changing mechanisms of dominant species in the alpine tundra zone. We found that the two previously dominant shrubs, Rhododendron chrysanthum and Vaccinium uliginosum, differed markedly in their distribution characteristics. The former had the highest abundance and the lowest coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis, and the latter showed the opposite results, while the six herb species invaded had intermediate values. R. chrysanthum still had a relatively uniform distribution, while the herbaceous species and V. uliginosum had a patch distribution deviating from the normal distribution in the tundra zone. Micro-topography and slope grade had stronger effects on the spatial distribution of the eight plant species than elevation. Herbs tended to easily replace the shrubs on a semi-sunny slope aspect, steep slope, and depression. Overall, the dominance of dwarf shrubs declined, while the herbaceous species have encroached and expanded on the alpine tundra zone and have become co-dominant plant species. Our results suggest that various micro-topographic factors associated with variations in climatic and edaphic conditions determine the spatial distribution of plants in the alpine tundra zone. Future climate warming may cause decreased snow thickness, increased growing season length, and drought stress, which may further promote replacement of the shrubs by herbs, which shows retrogressive vegetation successions in the Changbai alpine tundra zone. Further studies need to focus on the physio-ecological mechanisms underlying the vegetation change and species replacement in the alpine tundra area under global climate change.

Local snow melt and temperature-but not regional sea ice-explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra

The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long-term time series of spring leaf-out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology.

Patch use in the arctic ground squirrel: effects of micro-topography and shrub encroachment in the Arctic Circle

We investigated the roles of vegetation structure, micro-topographic relief, and predator activity patterns (time of day) on the perception of predatory risk of arctic ground squirrels (Urocitellus parryii), an abundant pan-Arctic omnivore, in Arctic Circle tundra on the North Slope of Alaska, where tundra vegetation structure has been predicted to change in response to climate. We quantified foraging intensity by measuring the giving-up densities (GUDs) of the arctic ground squirrels in experimental foraging patches along a heath-graminoid-shrub moist tundra gradient. We hypothesized that foraging intensity of arctic ground squirrels would be greatest and GUDs lowest, where low-stature vegetation or raised micro-topography improves sightlines for predator detection. Furthermore, GUDs should vary with time of day and reflect 24-h cycles of varying predation risk. Foraging intensity varied temporally, being highest in the afternoon and lowest overnight. During the morning, foraging intensity was inversely correlated with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a proxy for vegetation productivity and cover. Foraging was additionally measured within landscapes of fear, confirming that vegetative and topographic obstructions of sightlines reduces foraging intensity and increases GUDs. We conclude that arctic ground squirrels may affect Arctic Circle vegetation of tundra ecosystems, but these effects will vary spatially and temporally.

Seasonal climate effects on the survival of a hibernating mammal

Global climate change and associated regional climate variability is impacting the phenology of many species, ultimately altering individual fitness and population dynamics. Yet, few studies have considered the effects of pertinent seasonal climate variability on phenology and fitness. Hibernators may be particularly susceptible to changes in seasonal climate since they have a relatively short active season in which to reproduce and gain enough mass to survive the following winter. To understand whether and how seasonal climate variability may be affecting hibernator fitness, we estimated survival from historical (1964-1968) and contemporary (2014-2017) mark-recapture data collected from the same population of Uinta ground squirrels (UGS, Urocitellus armatus), a hibernator endemic to the western United States. Despite a locally warming climate, the phenology of UGS did not change over time, yet season-specific climate variables were important in regulating survival rates. Specifically, older age classes experienced lower survival when winters or the following springs were warm, while juveniles benefited from warmer winter temperatures. Although metabolic costs decrease with decreasing temperature in the hibernacula, arousal costs increase with decreasing temperature. Our results suggest that this trade-off is experienced differently by immature and mature individuals. We also observed an increase in population density during that time period, suggesting resources are less limited today than they used to be. Cheatgrass is now dominating the study site and may provide a better food source to UGS than native plants did historically.

Temperature sensitivity of willow dwarf shrub growth from two distinct High Arctic sites

The High Arctic region has experienced marked climate fluctuations within the past decades strongly affecting tundra shrub growth. However, the spatial variability in dwarf shrub growth responses in this remote region remains largely unknown. This study characterizes temperature sensitivity of radial growth of two willow dwarf shrub species from two distinct High Arctic sites. The dwarf shrub Salix arctica from Northern Greenland (82°N), which has a dry continental High Arctic climate, is linked with Salix polaris from central Svalbard (78° N), which experiences a more oceanic High Arctic climate with relatively mild winters. We found similar positive and significant relationships between annual growth of both Salix dwarf shrub species and July-August air temperatures (1960-2010), despite different temperature regimes and shrub growth rates at the two sites. Also, Salix dwarf shrub growth was significantly negatively correlated with Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) indices; S. arctica from Northern Greenland was negatively correlated with previous autumn (AO index) and current summer AO and NAO indices, and S. polaris with the summer NAO index. The results highlight the importance of both local and regional climatic drivers for dwarf willow shrub growth in harsh polar desert habitats and are a step in the direction of identifying and scaling changes in plant growth across the High Arctic.

Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities

Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.

Overlooked climate parameters best predict flowering onset: Assessing phenological models using the elastic net

Determining the manner in which plant species shift their flowering times in response to climatic conditions is essential to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on the world's flora. The limited taxonomic diversity and duration of most phenological datasets, however, have impeded a comprehensive, systematic determination of the best predictors of flowering phenology. Additionally, many studies of the relationship between climate conditions and plant phenology have included only a limited set of climate parameters that are often chosen a priori and may therefore overlook those parameters to which plants are most phenologically sensitive. This study harnesses 894,392 digital herbarium records and 1,959 in situ observations to produce the first assessment of the effects of a large number (25) of climate parameters on the flowering time of a very large number (2,468) of angiosperm taxa throughout North America. In addition, we compare the predictive capacity of phenological models constructed from the collection dates of herbarium specimens vs. repeated in situ observations of individual plants using a regression approach-elastic net regularization-that has not previously been used in phenological modeling, but exhibits several advantages over ordinary least squares and stepwise regression. When herbarium-derived data and in situ phenological observations were used to predict flowering onset, the multivariate models based on each of these data sources had similar predictive capacity (R²  = 0.27). Further, apart from mean maximum temperature (TMAX), the two best predictors of flowering time have not commonly been included in phenological models: the number of frost-free days (NFFD) and the quantity of precipitation as snow (PAS) in the seasons preceding flowering. By vetting these models across an unprecedented number of taxa, this work demonstrates a new approach to phenological modeling.