Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems

The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.

Effect of climate warming on the timing of autumn leaf senescence reverses after the summer solstice

Climate change is shifting the growing seasons of plants, affecting species performance and biogeochemical cycles. Yet how the timing of autumn leaf senescence in Northern Hemisphere forests will change remains uncertain. Using satellite, ground, carbon flux, and experimental data, we show that early-season and late-season warming have opposite effects on leaf senescence, with a reversal occurring after the year's longest day (the summer solstice). Across 84% of the northern forest area, increased temperature and vegetation activity before the solstice led to an earlier senescence onset of, on average, 1.9 ± 0.1 days per °C, whereas warmer post-solstice temperatures extended senescence duration by 2.6 ± 0.1 days per °C. The current trajectories toward an earlier onset and slowed progression of senescence affect Northern Hemisphere-wide trends in growing-season length and forest productivity.

Varying Responses of Vegetation Greenness to the Diurnal Warming across the Global

The distribution of global warming has been varying both diurnally and seasonally. Little is known about the spatiotemporal variations in the relationships between vegetation greenness and day- and night-time warming during the last decades. We investigated the global inter- and intra-annual responses of vegetation greenness to the diurnal asymmetric warming during the period of 1982-2015, using the normalized different vegetation index (NDVI, a robust proxy for vegetation greenness) obtained from the NOAA/AVHRR NDVI GIMMS3g dataset and the monthly average daily maximum (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) obtained from the gridded Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Several findings were obtained: (1) The strength of the relationship between vegetation greenness and the diurnal temperature varied on inter-annual and seasonal timescales, indicating generally weakening warming effects on the vegetation activity across the global. (2) The decline in vegetation response to T_max occurred mainly in the mid-latitudes of the world and in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, whereas the decline in the vegetation response to T_min primarily concentrated in low latitudes. The percentage of areas with a significantly negative trend in the partial correlation coefficient between vegetation greenness and diurnal temperature was greater than that of the areas showing the significant positive trend. (3) The trends in the correlation between vegetation greenness and diurnal warming showed a complex spatial pattern: the majority of the study areas had undergone a significant declining strength in the vegetation greenness response to T_max in all seasons and to T_min in seasons except autumn. These findings are expected to have important implications for studying the diurnal asymmetry warming and its effect on the terrestrial ecosystem.

Multi-Year Monitoring of Deciduous Forests Ecophysiology and the Role of Temperature and Precipitation as Controlling Factors

Two deciduous forest ecosystems, one dominated by Fagus sylvatica and a mixed one with Quercus cerris and Quercus frainetto, were monitored from an ecophysiological perspective during a five-year period, in order to assess seasonal fluctuations, establish links between phenology and ecophysiology, and reveal climatic controls. Field measurements of leaf area index (LAI), chlorophyll content, leaf specific mass (LSM), water potential (Ψ) and leaf photosynthesis (Aleaf) were performed approximately on a monthly basis. LAI, chlorophylls and LSM fluctuations followed a recurrent pattern yearly, with increasing values during spring leaf burst and expansion, relatively stable values during summer and decreasing values during autumn senescence. However, pre-senescence leaf fall and chlorophyll reductions were evident in the driest year. The dynamically responsive Aleaf and Ψ presented considerable inter-annual variation. Both oak species showed more pronounced depressions of Aleaf and Ψ compared to beech, yet the time-point of their appearance coincided and was the same for all species each year. Spring temperature had a positive role in the increasing phase of all ecophysiological processes while rising autumn temperature resulted in retarded senescence. Precipitation showed asymmetric effects on the measured ecophysiological parameters. The between-species differences in responses, climate sensitivity and climate memory are identified and discussed.

Impact of successive spring frosts on leaf phenology and radial growth in three deciduous tree species with contrasting climate requirements in central Spain

Rear-edge tree populations forming the equatorward limit of distribution of temperate species are assumed to be more adapted to climate variability than central (core) populations. However, climate is expected to become more variable and the frequency of climate extremes is forecasted to increase. Climatic extreme events such as heat waves, dry spells and spring frosts could become more frequent, and negatively impact and jeopardize rear-edge stands. To evaluate these ideas, we analyzed the growth response of trees to successive spring frosts in a mixed forest, where two temperate deciduous species, Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech) and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl. (sessile oak), both at their southernmost edge, coexist with the Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. (Pyrenean oak). Growth reductions in spring-frost years ranked across species as F. sylvatica > Q. petraea > Q. pyrenaica. Leaf flushing occurred earlier in F. sylvatica and later in Q. pyrenaica, suggesting that leaf phenology was a strong determinant of spring frost damage and stem growth reduction. The frost impact depended on prior climate conditions, since warmer days prior to frost occurrence predisposed to frost damage. Autumn Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data showed delayed leaf senescence in spring-frost years and subsequent years as compared with pre-frost years. In the studied forest, the negative impact of spring frosts on Q. petraea and especially on F. sylvatica growth, was considerably higher than the impacts due to drought. The succession of four spring frosts in the last two decades determined a trend of decreasing resistance of radial growth to frosts in F. sylvatica. The increased frequency of spring frosts might prevent the expansion and persistence of F. sylvatica in this rear-edge Mediterranean population.

Contrasting temporal variations in responses of leaf unfolding to daytime and nighttime warming

Earlier spring phenological events have been widely reported in plants under global warming. Recent studies reported a slowdown in the warming-induced advanced spring phenology in temperate regions. However, previous research mainly focused on daily mean temperature, thus neglecting the asymmetric phenological responses to daytime and nighttime temperature. Using long-term records of leaf unfolding in eight deciduous species at 1300 sites across central Europe, we assessed and compared the effects of daytime temperature, nighttime temperature, and photoperiod on leaf unfolding during 1951-1980 and 1981-2013. Although leaf unfolding was advanced by daytime warming during 1951-2013, the advancing responses of leaf unfolding significantly decreased from 1951-1980 to 1981-2013 due to a lower accumulation of chilling units by daytime warming. Nighttime warming delayed leaf unfolding during 1951-1980 but advanced it during 1981-2013 due to a higher accumulation of chilling units by nighttime warming. In contrast, critical daylength and plasticity of leaf unfolding dates remained unchanged between 1951 and 2013. Our study provided evidence that daytime warming instead of nighttime warming accounts for the slowdown in the advancing spring phenology and implied that nighttime warming-induced earlier spring phenology may be buffering the slowdown of the advanced spring phenology by daytime warming. The response of spring phenology to nighttime temperature may override that to daytime temperature under the actual trends in global warming.

Pathogen infection influences the relationship between spring and autumn phenology at the seedling and leaf level

Seasonal life history events are often interdependent, but we know relatively little about how the relationship between different events is influenced by the abiotic and biotic environment. Such knowledge is important for predicting the immediate and evolutionary phenological response of populations to changing conditions. We manipulated germination timing and shade in a multi-factorial experiment to investigate the relationship between spring and autumn phenology in seedlings of the pedunculate oak, Quercus robur, and whether this relationship was mediated by natural colonization of leaves by specialist fungal pathogens (i.e., the oak powdery mildew complex). Each week delay in germination corresponded to about 2 days delay in autumn leaf senescence, and heavily shaded seedlings senesced 5-8 days later than seedlings in light shade or full sun. Within seedlings, leaves on primary-growth shoots senesced later than those on secondary-growth shoots in some treatments. Path analyses demonstrated that germination timing and shade affected autumn phenology both directly and indirectly via pathogen load, though the specific pattern differed among and within seedlings. Pathogen load increased with later germination and greater shade. Greater pathogen load was in turn associated with later senescence for seedlings, but with earlier senescence for individual leaves. Our findings show that relationships between seasonal events can be partly mediated by the biotic environment and suggest that these relationships may differ between the plant and leaf level. The influence of biotic interactions on phenological correlations across scales has implications for understanding phenotypic variation in phenology and for predicting how populations will respond to climatic perturbation.

Divergent responses of phenology and growth to summer and autumnal warming

Plant phenology is highly sensitive to climate change, and shifts in autumnal foliar senescence are critical for plant productivity and nutrient cycling. Global warming has delayed the timing of foliar senescence, but the response of autumnal foliar senescence to nonuniform seasonal warming remains poorly understood, with experimental evidence in trees especially scarce. We therefore conducted a field experiment on seasonally asymmetric warming on 2-year-old larch (Larix principis-rupprechtii) seedlings in two hydrologically contrasting years (wet 2018 and dry 2019). Autumnal and year-round warming significantly delayed the timing of foliar senescence by 6 and 7 d in 2018, the wet year, with corresponding temperature sensitivities of 6.73 ± 1.47 and 8.26 ± 1.00 d/°C, respectively. Interestingly, the dates of senescence did not change across the warming treatments in 2019, the dry year. However, there was no significant effect of summer warming on the timing of foliar senescence neither in the wet nor dry year. The delayed autumnal foliar senescence was responsible for an increase in biomass only in the wet year, 2018. In contrast, summer warming, but not autumnal warming, increased the mortality of the seedlings in both 2018 and 2019. These results suggest that the hydrological conditions substantially modify the response of autumnal phenology and growth to seasonal warming. Autumnal warming increases growth, whereas summer warming could cause carbon starvation/hydraulic failure, reduce growth, and lead to higher mortality. Our results suggest that the functioning, ecosystem services, and sustainability of forests in the future depend on the strength and pattern of nonuniform seasonal warming. This study can inspire new research in phenology and tree growth in experiments with asymmetric warming.

Chilling and Heat Accumulation of Fruit and Nut Trees and Flower Bud Vulnerability to Early Spring Low Temperatures in New Mexico: Meteorological Approach

Fruit and nut trees production is an important activity across the southwest United States and this production is greatly impacted by the local climate. Temperature is the main environmental factor influencing the growth and the productivity of the fruit and nut trees as it affects the trees’ physiology and the vulnerability of flower bud, flowers, and young fruit and nut to the low temperatures or spring frost. The objective of the present study is to estimate the chilling and heat accumulation of fruit and nut trees across New Mexico. Three study sites as Fabian Garcia, Los Lunas, and Farmington were considered and climate variables were collected at hourly time step. The Utah model and the Dynamic model were used to estimate the accumulated chilling while the Forcing model was used for the heat accumulation. The possible fruit and nut trees endodormancy and ecodormancy periods were also determined at the study sites. The results obtained chilling hours of 715 ± 86.60 h at Fabian Garcia, 729.53 ± 41.71 h at Los Lunas, and 828.95 ± 83.73 h at Farmington using the Utah model. The accumulated chill portions during trees’ endodormancy was 3.12 ± 3.05 CP at Fabian Garcia, 42.23 ± 5.08 CP at Los Lunas, and 56.14 ± 1.84 CP at Farmington. The accumulated heat was 8735.52 ± 1650.91 GDH at Fabian Garcia, 7695.43 ± 212.90 GDH at Los Lunas, and 5984.69 ± 2353.20 GDH at Farmington. The fruit and nut trees are at no risk of bud flowers vulnerability at Fabian Garcia while they are under high risk of bud flowers and or young fruit and nut vulnerability to low temperatures early spring as hourly temperature can still drop below 0 °C in April at the end of ecodormancy and flower blooming and young fruits and nuts development stage at Los Lunas and Farmington. Severe weather, especially frost conditions during winter and early spring, can be a significant threat to sustainable nut and fruit production in the northern New Mexico while high chilling requirement fruit and nut trees might not meet chill requirements in the southern New Mexico.

Why don't phenophase dates in the current year affect the same phenophase dates in the following year?

Examining whether a phenophase occurrence date in the current year affects the same phenophase occurrence date in the following year is crucial for developing cross-year phenological prediction models. Here, we carried out correlation analyses between leaf unfolding start (LUS)/leaf fall end (LFE) dates in the current and following years for four dominant tree species in temperate northern China from 1981 to 2012. Then, we calculated the recurrence intervals of LUS and LFE between two adjacent years for each species. Moreover, we investigated temperature effects on LUS/LFE dates, growing season and non-growing season lengths. Results show that correlation coefficients between LUS/LFE dates in the current and following years are nonsignificant at most stations. The recurrence interval of a phenophase has slight interannual variation and correlates significantly (and negatively) with the phenophase occurrence date of the current year. Further analyses indicate that LUS dates correlate significantly (and negatively) with spring mean temperatures, while LFE dates correlate significantly (and positively) with autumn mean temperatures, but negatively with growing season mean temperatures. In addition, spring mean temperatures can influence growing season length by controlling LUS date but cannot influence the following non-growing season length. Similarly, autumn mean temperatures and growing season mean temperatures can influence the subsequent non-growing season length but cannot influence the growing season length of the following year. Our study highlights that recurrence interval and time restrictions in the effects of seasonal temperatures on phenophase dates are the main environmental causes of nonsignificant correlations between phenophase occurrence dates in the current and following years.

Effects of winter chilling vs. spring forcing on the spring phenology of trees in a cold region and a warmer reference region

Regions at high latitudes and high altitudes are undergoing a more pronounced winter warming than spring warming, and such asymmetric warming will affect chilling and forcing processes and thus the spring phenology of plants. We analyzed winter chilling and spring forcing accumulation in relation to the spring phenology of three tree species (Ulmus pumila, Populus simonii, and Syringa oblata) growing in a cold region (CR) compared with trees in a warmer reference region (WR), using the Dynamic Model and the Growing Degree Hour (GDH) model. We tested that forcing rather than chilling affects the spring phenology of trees in CR (hypothesis I), and that trees in CR have both lower mean chilling and forcing temperature and thus longer accumulation periods than trees in WR (hypothesis II). The modeling results confirmed that chilling and forcing occur simultaneously during the early spring when temperature gradually increases. In line with our hypotheses, forcing played a crucial role in spring phenology in CR, but chilling and forcing combined to determine spring phenology in WR. The temperature during the chilling and forcing periods was lower and the accumulation period started earlier and ended later in CR than in WR. Moreover, the chilling accumulation was broken into two periods by the low deep winter temperature in CR, and that interruption will be removed by future strong winter warming. Future asymmetric warming, with a stronger temperature increase in winter than in spring, could decrease the forcing accumulation effects and increase the chilling effects on the spring phenology of plants in CR. This change in the balance between chilling and forcing will lead to a shift in plant phenology, which will further have major impacts on biogeochemical cycles and on ecosystem functions and services.

Divergent Responses of Community Reproductive and Vegetative Phenology to Warming and Cooling: Asymmetry Versus Symmetry

Few studies have focused on the response of plant community phenology to temperature change using manipulative experiments. A lack of understanding of whether responses of community reproductive and vegetative phenological sequences to warming and cooling are asymmetrical or symmetrical limits our capacity to predict responses under warming and cooling. A reciprocal transplant experiment was conducted for 3 years to evaluate response patterns of the temperature sensitivities of community phenological sequences to warming (transferred downward) and cooling (transferred upward) along four elevations on the Tibetan Plateau. We found that the temperature sensitivities of flowering stages had asymmetric responses to warming and cooling, whereas symmetric responses to warming and cooling were observed for the vegetative phenological sequences. Our findings showed that coverage changes of flowering functional groups (FFGs; i.e., early-spring FFG, mid-summer FFG, and late-autumn FFG) and their compensation effects combined with required accumulated soil temperatureto codetermined the asymmetric and symmetric responses of community phenological sequences to warming and cooling. These results suggest that coverage change in FFGs on warming and cooling processes can be a primary driver of community phenological variation and may lead to inaccurate phenlogical estimation at large scale, such as based on remote sensing.

Nutrient availability alters the correlation between spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence dates

Leaf senescence (LS) affects tree fitness, species distribution and ecosystem structure and functioning. The drivers of LS and the processes underlying it have been studied, but the studies have mainly focused on environmental cues and have mainly been based on statistical analyses using in situ data sets. Experimental investigation and field verification of the processes and drivers are thus urgently needed. We conducted a nutrient-addition experiment after a spring-warming experiment in which an ~40-day range of leaf-out (LO) dates was induced in horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) saplings. We found that both increased nutrient supply and advanced LO date significantly affected the timing of LS, but their effects were opposite, as the former delayed and the latter advanced the senescence. The effects of nutrient supply and LO interacted species specifically. In chestnut, the delay of senescence caused by fertilization increased with the delay of LO and was thus stronger for individuals that flushed late in the spring. On the contrary, in beech the delay of senescence caused by fertilization decreased with the delay of LO and was insignificant for individuals with the latest LO. The experimental findings for beech were confirmed with mature trees at a regional scale. The interactive effect between nutrients and LO on senescence may be associated with variable sensitivity to photoperiod, growth sink limitation and/or direct effect of foliar nutrition on the timing of senescence. Our novel results show that the interactive effects of LO and nutrient supply on the timing of LS should be further addressed experimentally in forthcoming studies. It would also be interesting to consider our results in the further development of phenological models used in assessing the effects of climatic change. The differences found in the present study between horse chestnut and beech suggest that the results found for one species cannot necessarily be generalized to other species, so studies with different temperate tree species are called for.

Frost controls spring phenology of juvenile Smith fir along elevational gradients on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Impacts of climatic means on spring phenology are well documented, whereas the role of climatic variance, such as occurrence of spring frosts, has long been neglected. A large elevational gradient of forests on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau provides an ideal platform to explore correlates of spring phenology and environmental factors. We tested the hypothesis that spring frost was a major factor regulating the timing of bud-leaf phenology by combining 5 years of in situ phenological observations of Abies georgei var. smithii with concurrent air temperature data along two altitudinal gradients. Mean lapse rate for the onset of bud swelling and leaf unfolding was 3.1 ± 0.5 days/100 m and 3.0 ± 0.6 days/100 m, respectively. Random forest analysis and conditional inference trees revealed that the frequency of freezing events was a critical factor in determining the timing of bud swelling, independent of topographic differences, varying accumulation of chilling days, and degree-days. In contrast, the onset of leaf unfolding was primarily controlled by the bud swelling onset. Thus, the timing of bud swelling and leaf unfolding appear to be controlled directly and indirectly, respectively, by spring frost. Using space-for-time substitution, the frequency of spring freezing events decreased by 7.1 days with 1 °C of warming. This study provides evidence for impacts of late spring frosts on spring phenology, which have been underappreciated in research on phenological sensitivity to climate but should be included in phenology models. Fewer spring freezing events with warming have important implications for the upward migration of alpine forests and treelines.

Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation spring phenology and its response to climate change in freshwater marshes of Northeast China

Understanding wetland vegetation phenology and its response to climate change is important to predict the changes of wetland vegetation in wetland regions. Using the NDVI and climate data, this work studied the spatiotemporal change of start date of vegetation growing season (SOS) and explored the possible effects of climate change on the SOS over freshwater marshes of Northeast China. The results showed that the SOS significantly advanced by 0.52 day per year throughout the freshwater marshes of Northeast China during 2001 to 2016. The significant advancing of SOS was mainly concentrated in freshwater marshes of the Khingan Mountains (the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Lesser Khingan Mountains) and central arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain) in Northeast China. By contrast, there were weak delay trends of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region, and Sanjiang plain. We found that precipitation was a dominant factor determining the SOS in arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain), while temperature played a bigger role in determining the SOS in Sanjiang plain and three cold mountains of the Northeast China. During the study period, increasing precipitation in the winter and spring contributed to advancing SOS in Songnen plain and Liaohe plain; the decrease of temperature from December to April explain the delaying SOS in freshwater marshes of Sanjiang Plain; the weak warming of temperature between November and May account for the advancing SOS of freshwater marshes in three cold mountains. In freshwater marshes of cold and the most arid region of Northeast China (Eastern Inner Mongolia), the SOS was influenced by both precipitation and temperature. Decreasing precipitation between January and April, as well as temperature decreases in March and April explain the delay of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region.

Age-mediation of tree-growth responses to experimental warming in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The trajectory of tree-growth response to climate warming may be related to attributes like tree age. However, age-mediation of temperature sensitivity of tree growth has received little attention. This study aimed to determine how age affects tree growth in a future warmer world. In a 2-year ecosystem warming experiment in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau of China, we explored the response of Qinghai spruce saplings at two life stages to two warming levels. Our results indicated a significant interaction between warming and age for sapling growth of Qinghai spruce. In high-level warming scenario, the experiment increased growing season air temperatures by approximately 1.0°C and annual growing degree-days by 38%. In response, warmed saplings lengthened the growing season by 10 days on average and increased the final shoot length to a maximum of 104% compared to control groups. Comparison of age classes revealed that old saplings exhibited significantly higher temperature sensitivity than young saplings. This performance may be caused by the differences in adaptive strategy to the asymmetric warming occurring during the whole day. Increased daytime temperature was expected to significantly enhance leaf photosynthesis, whereas lack of obvious nighttime warming would effectively restrict autotrophic respiration, thus resulting in the higher growth rate of old saplings compared with young saplings. Moreover, lack of nighttime warming rendered young saplings to be still in high stresses of freezing injury at low temperatures. These findings highlight the need for additional research on the effects of further climate anomalies on tree species during their ontogenetic processes.

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf-out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6-8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf-out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf-out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.

Vapor-pressure deficit and extreme climatic variables limit tree growth

Assessing the effect of global warming on forest growth requires a better understanding of species-specific responses to climate change conditions. Norway spruce and European beech are among the dominant tree species in Europe and are largely used by the timber industry. Their sensitivity to changes in climate and extreme climatic events, however, endangers their future sustainability. Identifying the key climatic factors limiting their growth and survival is therefore crucial for assessing the responses of these two species to ongoing climate change. We studied the vulnerability of beech and spruce to warmer and drier conditions by transplanting saplings from the top to the bottom of an elevational gradient in the Jura Mountains in Switzerland. We (1) demonstrated that a longer growing season due to warming could not fully account for the positive growth responses, and the positive effect on sapling productivity was species-dependent, (2) demonstrated that the contrasting growth responses of beech and spruce were mainly due to different sensitivities to elevated vapor-pressure deficits (VPD), (3) determined the species-specific limits to VPD above which growth rate began to decline, and (4) demonstrated that models incorporating extreme climatic events could account for the response of growth to warming better than models using only average values. These results support that the sustainability of forest trees in the coming decades will depend on how extreme climatic events will change, irrespective of the overall warming trend.