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Pfenning-Butterworth A, Buckley LB, Drake JM, Farner JE, Farrell MJ, Gehman ALM, Mordecai EA, Stephens PR, Gittleman JL, Davies TJ. Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e270-e283. [PMID: 38580428 PMCID: PMC11090248 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00021-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Revised: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/07/2024]
Abstract
The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - John M Drake
- School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | | | - Maxwell J Farrell
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Alyssa-Lois M Gehman
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Hakai Institute, Calvert, BC, Canada
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Patrick R Stephens
- Department of Integrative Biology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
| | - John L Gittleman
- School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - T Jonathan Davies
- Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
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2
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Vitasse Y, Pohl N, Walde MG, Nadel H, Gossner MM, Baumgarten F. Feasting on the ordinary or starving for the exceptional in a warming climate: Phenological synchrony between spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar) and budburst of six European tree species. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e10928. [PMID: 38371870 PMCID: PMC10869895 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10928] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Revised: 11/02/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Global warming is affecting the phenological cycles of plants and animals, altering the complex synchronization that has co-evolved over thousands of years between interacting species and trophic levels. Here, we examined how warmer winter conditions affect the timing of budburst in six common European trees and the hatching of a generalist leaf-feeding insect, the spongy moth Lymantria dispar, whose fitness depends on the synchrony between egg hatch and leaf emergence of the host tree. We applied four different temperature treatments to L. dispar eggs and twig cuttings, that mimicked warmer winters and reduced chilling temperatures that are necessary for insect diapause and bud dormancy release, using heated open-top chambers (ambient or +3.5°C), and heated greenhouses (maintained at >6°C or >10°C). In addition, we conducted preference and performance tests to determine which tree species the larvae prefer and benefit from the most. Budburst success and twig survival were highest for all tree species at ambient temperature conditions, whereas it declined under elevated winter temperature for Tilia cordata and Acer pseudoplatanus, likely due to a lack of chilling. While L. dispar egg hatch coincided with budburst in most tree species within 10 days under ambient conditions, it coincided with budburst only in Quercus robur, Carpinus betulus, and, to a lesser extent, Ulmus glabra under warmer conditions. With further warming, we, therefore, expect an increasing mismatch in trees with high chilling requirements, such as Fagus sylvatica and A. pseudoplatanus, but still good synchronization with trees having low chilling requirements, such as Q. robur and C. betulus. Surprisingly, first instar larvae preferred and gained weight faster when fed with leaves of F. sylvatica, while Q. robur ranked second. Our results suggest that spongy moth outbreaks are likely to persist in oak and hornbeam forests in western and central Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yann Vitasse
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
| | - Nora Pohl
- Southern Swedish Forest Research CentreSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesLommaSweden
| | - Manuel G. Walde
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
| | - Hannah Nadel
- United States Department of AgricultureAnimal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Forest Pest Methods LaboratoryBuzzards BayMassachusettsUSA
| | - Martin M. Gossner
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
- Department of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH ZürichZürichSwitzerland
| | - Frederik Baumgarten
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
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3
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Lorer E, Verheyen K, Blondeel H, De Pauw K, Sanczuk P, De Frenne P, Landuyt D. Forest understorey flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and illumination. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2024; 241:1476-1491. [PMID: 38031641 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Species are altering their phenology to track warming temperatures. In forests, understorey plants experience tree canopy shading resulting in light and temperature conditions, which strongly deviate from open habitats. Yet, little is known about understorey phenology responses to forest microclimates. We recorded flowering onset, peak, end and duration of 10 temperate forest understorey plant species in two mesocosm experiments to understand how phenology is affected by sub-canopy warming and how this response is modulated by illumination, which is related to canopy change. Furthermore, we investigated whether phenological sensitivities can be explained by species' characteristics, such as thermal niche. We found a mean advance of flowering onset of 7.1 d per 1°C warming, more than previously reported in studies not accounting for microclimatic buffering. Warm-adapted species exhibited greater advances. Temperature sensitivity did not differ between early- and later-flowering species. Experimental illumination did not significantly affect species' phenological temperature sensitivities, but slightly delayed flowering phenology independent from warming. Our study suggests that integrating sub-canopy temperature and light availability will help us better understand future understorey phenology responses. Climate warming together with intensifying canopy disturbances will continue to drive phenological shifts and potentially disrupt understorey communities, thereby affecting forest biodiversity and functioning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eline Lorer
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Kris Verheyen
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Haben Blondeel
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Karen De Pauw
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter Sanczuk
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter De Frenne
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Dries Landuyt
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
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4
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Didion-Gency M, Vitasse Y, Buchmann N, Gessler A, Gisler J, Schaub M, Grossiord C. Chronic warming and dry soils limit carbon uptake and growth despite a longer growing season in beech and oak. PLANT PHYSIOLOGY 2024; 194:741-757. [PMID: 37874743 PMCID: PMC10828195 DOI: 10.1093/plphys/kiad565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Revised: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 09/30/2023] [Indexed: 10/26/2023]
Abstract
Progressively warmer and drier climatic conditions impact tree phenology and carbon cycling with large consequences for forest carbon balance. However, it remains unclear how individual impacts of warming and drier soils differ from their combined effects and how species interactions modulate tree responses. Using mesocosms, we assessed the multiyear impact of continuous air warming and lower soil moisture alone or in combination on phenology, leaf-level photosynthesis, nonstructural carbohydrate concentrations, and aboveground growth of young European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Downy oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) trees. We further tested how species interactions (in monocultures and in mixtures) modulated these effects. Warming prolonged the growing season of both species but reduced growth in oak. In contrast, lower moisture did not impact phenology but reduced carbon assimilation and growth in both species. Combined impacts of warming and drier soils did not differ from their single effects. Under warmer and drier conditions, performances of both species were enhanced in mixtures compared to monocultures. Our work revealed that higher temperature and lower soil moisture have contrasting impacts on phenology vs. leaf-level assimilation and growth, with the former being driven by temperature and the latter by moisture. Furthermore, we showed a compensation in the negative impacts of chronic heat and drought by tree species interactions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Margaux Didion-Gency
- Plant Ecology Research Laboratory PERL, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, EPFL, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Yann Vitasse
- Forest Dynamics Research Unit, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Nina Buchmann
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Arthur Gessler
- Forest Dynamics Research Unit, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jonas Gisler
- Forest Dynamics Research Unit, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Marcus Schaub
- Forest Dynamics Research Unit, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Charlotte Grossiord
- Plant Ecology Research Laboratory PERL, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, EPFL, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
- Community Ecology Unit, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape WSL, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
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5
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Zhu D, Wang Y, Ciais P, Chevallier F, Peng S, Zhang Y, Wang X. Temperature dependence of spring carbon uptake in northern high latitudes during the past four decades. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17043. [PMID: 37988234 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2023] [Revised: 10/16/2023] [Accepted: 10/24/2023] [Indexed: 11/23/2023]
Abstract
In the northern high latitudes, warmer spring temperatures generally lead to earlier leaf onsets, higher vegetation production, and enhanced spring carbon uptake. Yet, whether this positive linkage has diminished under climate change remains debated. Here, we used atmospheric CO2 measurements at Barrow (Alaska) during 1979-2020 to investigate the strength of temperature dependence of spring carbon uptake reflected by two indicators, spring zero-crossing date (SZC) and CO2 drawdown (SCC). We found a fall and rise in the interannual correlation of temperature with SZC and SCC (RSZC-T and RSCC-T ), showing a recent reversal of the previously reported weakening trend of RSZC-T and RSCC-T . We used a terrestrial biosphere model coupled with an atmospheric transport model to reproduce this fall and rise phenomenon and conducted factorial simulations to explore its potential causes. We found that a strong-weak-strong spatial synchrony of spring temperature anomalies per se has contributed to the fall and rise trend in RSZC-T and RSCC-T , despite an overall unbroken temperature control on net ecosystem CO2 fluxes at local scale. Our results provide an alternative explanation for the apparent drop of RSZC-T and RSCC-T during the late 1990s and 2000s, and suggest a continued positive linkage between spring carbon uptake and temperature during the past four decades. We thus caution the interpretation of apparent climate sensitivities of carbon cycle retrieved from spatially aggregated signals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dan Zhu
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yilong Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Frédéric Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Shushi Peng
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yao Zhang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Xuhui Wang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing, China
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6
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He L, Wang J, Ciais P, Ballantyne A, Yu K, Zhang W, Xiao J, Ritter F, Liu Z, Wang X, Li X, Peng S, Ma C, Zhou C, Li ZL, Xie Y, Ye JS. Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems. PNAS NEXUS 2023; 2:pgad308. [PMID: 37780232 PMCID: PMC10538477 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023]
Abstract
The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei He
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Jian Wang
- Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l′Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Ashley Ballantyne
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l′Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59801, USA
| | - Kailiang Yu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l′Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
| | - Wenxin Zhang
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund 22362, Sweden
| | - Jingfeng Xiao
- Earth Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA
| | - François Ritter
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l′Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Zhihua Liu
- CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
| | - Xufeng Wang
- Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Xiaojun Li
- INRAE, UMR1391 ISPA, Université de Bordeaux, Villenave d′Ornon 33140, France
| | - Shouzhang Peng
- State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
| | - Changhui Ma
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Chenghu Zhou
- Center for Ocean Remote Sensing of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510070, China
| | - Zhao-Liang Li
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Yaowen Xie
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Jian-Sheng Ye
- State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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7
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Spake R, Bowler DE, Callaghan CT, Blowes SA, Doncaster CP, Antão LH, Nakagawa S, McElreath R, Chase JM. Understanding 'it depends' in ecology: a guide to hypothesising, visualising and interpreting statistical interactions. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:983-1002. [PMID: 36859791 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Revised: 02/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023]
Abstract
Ecologists routinely use statistical models to detect and explain interactions among ecological drivers, with a goal to evaluate whether an effect of interest changes in sign or magnitude in different contexts. Two fundamental properties of interactions are often overlooked during the process of hypothesising, visualising and interpreting interactions between drivers: the measurement scale - whether a response is analysed on an additive or multiplicative scale, such as a ratio or logarithmic scale; and the symmetry - whether dependencies are considered in both directions. Overlooking these properties can lead to one or more of three inferential errors: misinterpretation of (i) the detection and magnitude (Type-D error), and (ii) the sign of effect modification (Type-S error); and (iii) misidentification of the underlying processes (Type-A error). We illustrate each of these errors with a broad range of ecological questions applied to empirical and simulated data sets. We demonstrate how meta-analysis, a widely used approach that seeks explicitly to characterise context dependence, is especially prone to all three errors. Based on these insights, we propose guidelines to improve hypothesis generation, testing, visualisation and interpretation of interactions in ecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Spake
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, RG6 6EX, Reading, UK
| | - Diana E Bowler
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, OX10 8BB, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Corey T Callaghan
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle - Wittenberg, 06120, Halle (Saale), Germany
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Davie, 33314-7719, FL, USA
| | - Shane A Blowes
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Computer Science, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06099, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - C Patrick Doncaster
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, SO17 1BJ, Southampton, UK
| | - Laura H Antão
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, 00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Shinichi Nakagawa
- UNSW Data Science Hub, Evolution & Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW, Sydney, 2052, NSW, Australia
| | - Richard McElreath
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Human Behavior, Ecology and Culture, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Deutscher Platz 6, Leipzig, 04103, Germany
| | - Jonathan M Chase
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Computer Science, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06099, Halle (Saale), Germany
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8
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Soularue JP, Firmat C, Caignard T, Thöni A, Arnoux L, Delzon S, Ronce O, Kremer A. Antagonistic Effects of Assortative Mating on the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity along Environmental Gradients. Am Nat 2023; 202:18-39. [PMID: 37384769 PMCID: PMC7614710 DOI: 10.1086/724579] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2023]
Abstract
AbstractPrevious theory has shown that assortative mating for plastic traits can maintain genetic divergence across environmental gradients despite high gene flow. Yet these models did not examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity. We here describe patterns of genetic variation across elevation for plasticity in a trait under assortative mating, using multiple-year observations of budburst date in a common garden of sessile oaks. Despite high gene flow, we found significant spatial genetic divergence for the intercept, but not for the slope, of reaction norms to temperature. We then used individual-based simulations, where both the slope and the intercept of the reaction norm evolve, to examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity, varying the intensity and distance of gene flow. Our model predicts the evolution of either suboptimal plasticity (reaction norms with a slope shallower than optimal) or hyperplasticity (slopes steeper than optimal) in the presence of assortative mating when optimal plasticity would evolve under random mating. Furthermore, a cogradient pattern of genetic divergence for the intercept of the reaction norm (where plastic and genetic effects are in the same direction) always evolves in simulations with assortative mating, consistent with our observations in the studied oak populations.
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9
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Knott JA, Liang L, Dukes JS, Swihart RK, Fei S. Phenological response to climate variation in a northern red oak plantation: Links to survival and productivity. Ecology 2023; 104:e3940. [PMID: 36457179 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2022] [Revised: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
In a changing climate, the future survival and productivity of species rely on individual populations to respond to shifting environmental conditions. Many tree species, including northern red oak (Quercus rubra), exhibit phenotypic plasticity, the ability to respond to changes in environmental conditions at within-generation time scales, through varying traits such as leaf phenology. Phenotypic plasticity of phenology may vary among populations within a species' range, and it is unclear if the range of plasticity is adequate to promote fitness. Here, we used a 58-year-old common garden to test whether northern red oak populations differed in phenological sensitivity to changes in temperature and whether differences in phenological sensitivity were associated with differences in productivity and survival (proxies of fitness). We recorded 8 years of spring leaf emergence and autumn leaf coloration and loss in 28 distinct populations from across the species' full range. Across the 28 populations, spring leaf out consistently advanced in warmer years, but fall phenology was less responsive to changes in temperature. Southern, warm-adapted populations had larger shifts in phenology in response to springtime warming but had lower long-term survival. Moreover, higher phenological sensitivity to spring warming was not strongly linked to increased productivity. Instead, fitness was more closely linked to latitudinal gradients. Although springtime phenological sensitivity to climate change is common across northern red oak populations, responses of productivity and survival, which could determine longer-term trajectories of species abundance, are more variable across the species' range.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A Knott
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.,United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Liang Liang
- Department of Geography, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky, USA
| | - Jeffrey S Dukes
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.,Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Robert K Swihart
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA
| | - Songlin Fei
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA
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10
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Stemkovski M, Bell JR, Ellwood ER, Inouye BD, Kobori H, Lee SD, Lloyd-Evans T, Primack RB, Templ B, Pearse WD. Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability. Ecology 2023; 104:e3846. [PMID: 36199230 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2021] [Revised: 05/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Stemkovski
- Department of Biology & Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.,Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Elizabeth R Ellwood
- Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, California, USA.,iDigBio, Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Brian D Inouye
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA.,Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
| | | | - Sang Don Lee
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Richard B Primack
- Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - William D Pearse
- Department of Biology & Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Berkshire, UK
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11
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Tumajer J, Begović K, Čada V, Jenicek M, Lange J, Mašek J, Kaczka RJ, Rydval M, Svoboda M, Vlček L, Treml V. Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:462-476. [PMID: 36200330 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2022] [Accepted: 09/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing biases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree-ring width chronologies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the distribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non-linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate-growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry species distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly-resolved non-linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate-growth responses is a multifactorial phenomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and methodological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non-stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate-growth response for temperate forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan Tumajer
- Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Krešimir Begović
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Science, Department of Forest Ecology, Czech University of Life Science, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Vojtěch Čada
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Science, Department of Forest Ecology, Czech University of Life Science, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Michal Jenicek
- Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jelena Lange
- Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jiří Mašek
- Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Ryszard J Kaczka
- Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Miloš Rydval
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Science, Department of Forest Ecology, Czech University of Life Science, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Miroslav Svoboda
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Science, Department of Forest Ecology, Czech University of Life Science, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Lukáš Vlček
- Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
- Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Václav Treml
- Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
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12
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Wang H, Dai J, Peñuelas J, Ge Q, Fu YH, Wu C. Winter warming offsets one half of the spring warming effects on leaf unfolding. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6033-6049. [PMID: 35899626 PMCID: PMC9546158 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Accepted: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Winter temperature-related chilling and spring temperature-related forcing are two major environmental cues shaping the leaf-out date of temperate species. To what degree insufficient chilling caused by winter warming would slow phenological responses to spring warming remains unclear. Using 27,071 time series of leaf-out dates for 16 tree species in Europe, we constructed a phenological model based on the linear or exponential function between the chilling accumulation (CA) and forcing requirements (FR) of leaf-out. We further used the phenological model to quantify the relative contributions of chilling and forcing on past and future spring phenological change. The results showed that the delaying effect of decreased chilling on the leaf-out date was prevalent in natural conditions, as more than 99% of time series exhibited a negative relationship between CA and FR. The reduction in chilling linked to winter warming from 1951 to 2014 could offset about one half of the spring phenological advance caused by the increase in forcing. In future warming scenarios, if the same model is used and a linear, stable correlation between CA and FR is assumed, declining chilling will continuously offset the advance of leaf-out to a similar degree. Our study stresses the importance of assessing the antagonistic effects of winter and spring warming on leaf-out phenology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huanjiong Wang
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Junhu Dai
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
- University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
- China–Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth SciencesChinese Academy of Sciences‐Higher Education Commission of PakistanIslamabadPakistan
| | - Josep Peñuelas
- CSICGlobal Ecology Unit CREAF‐CSIC‐UABBellaterraBarcelonaSpain
- CREAFCerdanyola del VallesBarcelonaSpain
| | - Quansheng Ge
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
- University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Yongshuo H. Fu
- College of Water SciencesBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Chaoyang Wu
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
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13
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Kovaleski AP. Woody species do not differ in dormancy progression: Differences in time to budbreak due to forcing and cold hardiness. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2112250119. [PMID: 35500120 PMCID: PMC9171508 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2112250119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2021] [Accepted: 03/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Budbreak is one of the most observed and studied phenological phases in perennial plants, but predictions remain a challenge, largely due to our poor understanding of dormancy. Two dimensions of exposure to temperature are generally used to model budbreak: accumulation of time spent at low temperatures (chilling) and accumulation of heat units (forcing). These two effects have a well-established negative correlation; with more chilling, less forcing is required for budbreak. Furthermore, temperate plant species are assumed to vary in chilling requirements for dormancy completion allowing proper budbreak. Here, dormancy is investigated from the cold hardiness standpoint across many species, demonstrating that it should be accounted for to study dormancy and accurately predict budbreak. Most cold hardiness is lost prior to budbreak, but rates of cold hardiness loss (deacclimation) vary among species, leading to different times to budbreak. Within a species, deacclimation rate increases with accumulation of chill. When inherent differences between species in deacclimation rate are accounted for by normalizing rates throughout winter by the maximum rate observed, a standardized deacclimation potential is produced. Deacclimation potential is a quantitative measurement of dormancy progression based on responsiveness to forcing as chill accumulates, which increases similarly for all species, contradicting estimations of dormancy transition based on budbreak assays. This finding indicates that comparisons of physiologic and genetic control of dormancy require an understanding of cold hardiness dynamics. Thus, an updated framework for studying dormancy and its effects on spring phenology is suggested where cold hardiness in lieu of (or in addition to) budbreak is used.
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Affiliation(s)
- Al P. Kovaleski
- Department of Horticulture, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA 02131
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14
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North M, Workmaster BA, Atucha A. Effects of chill unit accumulation and temperature on woody plant deacclimation kinetics. PHYSIOLOGIA PLANTARUM 2022; 174:e13717. [PMID: 35592923 PMCID: PMC9327726 DOI: 10.1111/ppl.13717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Revised: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/13/2022] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Woody perennials in temperate climates develop cold hardiness in the fall (acclimation) and lose cold hardiness in the spring (deacclimation) to survive freezing winter temperatures. Two main factors known to regulate deacclimation responses are dormancy status and temperature. However, the progression of deacclimation responses throughout the dormant period and across a range of temperatures is not well described. More detailed descriptions of dormancy status and temperature, as factors regulating deacclimation, are necessary to understand the timing and magnitude of freeze injury risks for woody perennials in temperate climates. In this study, we modeled deacclimation responses in cold-climate interspecific hybrid grapevine cultivars throughout the dormant period by integrating chill accumulation and temperature through the concept of deacclimation potential. We evaluated deacclimation and budbreak under multiple temperature treatments and chill unit accumulation levels using differential thermal analysis (DTA) and bud forcing assays. Deacclimation responses increased continuously following logistic trends for both increasing chill unit accumulation and increasing temperature. There are optimal temperatures where deacclimation rates increased but changes in deacclimation rates diminished below and above these temperatures. The cumulative chill unit range where deacclimation potential increased overlapped with the transition from endo- to ecodormancy. Therefore, deacclimation potential could provide a quantitative method for describing dormancy transitions that do not rely on the visual evaluation of budbreak. This information provides a more detailed understanding of when and how deacclimation contributes to increased risks by freezing injury. In addition, our descriptions could inform improvements to models predicting cold hardiness, dormancy transitions, and spring phenology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael North
- Department of HorticultureUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Beth Ann Workmaster
- Department of HorticultureUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Amaya Atucha
- Department of HorticultureUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
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15
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Reid JM, Acker P. Conceptualizing the evolutionary quantitative genetics of phenological life‐history events: Breeding time as a plastic threshold trait. Evol Lett 2022; 6:220-233. [PMID: 35784452 PMCID: PMC9233176 DOI: 10.1002/evl3.278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 01/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jane M. Reid
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics NTNU Trondheim 7491 Norway
- School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen AB24 2TZ United Kingdom
| | - Paul Acker
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics NTNU Trondheim 7491 Norway
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