Environmental synergisms and extinctions of tropical species

Impact of land conversion on environmental conditions and methane emissions from a tropical peatland

Tropical peatlands are significant sources of methane (CH₄), but their contribution to the global CH₄ budget remains poorly quantified due to the lack of long-term, continuous and high-frequency flux measurements. To address this gap, we measured net ecosystem CH4 exchange (NEE-CH4) using eddy covariance technique throughout the conversion of a tropical peat swamp forest to an oil palm plantation. This encompassed the periods before, during and after conversion periods from 2014 to 2020, during which substantial environmental shifts were observed. Draining the peatland substantially lowered mean monthly groundwater levels from -20.0 ± 14.2 cm before conversion to -102.3 ± 31.6 cm during conversion and increased slightly to -96.5 ± 19.3 cm after conversion. Forest removal increased mean monthly soil temperature by 2.3 to 3.1 °C, reducing net radiation (Rn) and raising vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Following the tree removal, controlled burning temporarily warmed air temperature by 8 °C, increased VPD and significantly attenuated Rn, resulting in negative values owing to radiation interception by smoke and increased surface warming. Contrary to expectations that drainage would lower CH4 emissions, the site remained a consistent net source, with even higher emissions observed during and after conversion. The mean monthly NEE-CH4 during conversion (23.3 ± 8.6 mg C m-2 d-1) was about 2-times higher than before conversion (12.1 ± 5.3 mg C m-2 d-1) and about 1.5-times higher than after conversion (16.3 ± 4.1 mg C m-2 d-1). The heightened CH4 release is likely attributable to emissions from drainage ditches, underscoring their significant role in post-conversion CH4 dynamics. Despite its short duration, controlled burning substantially elevated NEE-CH4, ranging from 0.04 to 0.91 mg C m-2 s-1. Our findings highlight the substantial impact of land conversion on peatland CH4 dynamics, emphasizing the need for accurate flux measurements across various conversion stages to refine global CH4 budgets.

A comparative analysis of GHG inventories and ecosystems carbon absorption in Brazil

The global temperature is increasing mainly due to greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in the last century. While the overall global increase in emissions is due to fossil fuel operations, Brazil has as its primary emitter from forestry and land use, and agriculture sectors. Though these sectors can emit, both can play an important role in mitigating global warming, due to the natural ecosystem and agroecosystem capability of carbon absorption. We aimed to understand the impact of carbon removal on Brazil's national inventory. For that, we compared two GHG inventories - Climate TRACE and SEEG - and explored how precipitation and photosynthesis impact their estimates to determine how the inventories capture seasonal variability. First, we compared the GHG emissions and removals estimates for each sector between both inventories, especially the Forestry and Land Use sector. Moreover, we performed correlation analysis and linear regressions between them, at a biome and pixel level between 2015 and 2022. Our results show that differences between the GHG inventories could reach 1 Giga ton of CO2 eq in some years, mainly due to the forestry sector. Furthermore, in some ecosystems, such as Caatinga, precipitation, and photosynthesis were increasing between 2015 and 2022, thus boosting the removal capacity in this biome. In 2022, the Caatinga GHG removal represented almost 50 % of the total removals in Brazil. A higher removal capacity could significantly contribute to achieving net-zero GHG emissions, especially if deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances to ecosystems are halted. Our findings suggest that the Climate TRACE inventory captures more seasonal variability than SEEG. This outcome highlights the open issue of carbon removal estimates and also that seasonal aspects could be incorporated to improve our understanding.

The combined effects of temperature and fragment area on the demographic rates of an Afrotropical bird community over 34 years

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity, yet their combined impacts and potential interactions are poorly understood, particularly in the context of demographic rates. The Usambara Mountains, Tanzania, comprise a highly fragmented landscape where temperatures have increased by 0.58 °C over the last three decades. Here, we used a 34-year bird banding dataset from 14 forest fragments (0.2-908 ha) to examine the combined effects of fragment area and mean annual temperature on the demographic rates of 24 understory bird species. The population growth rates of two-thirds of species were negatively associated with at least one of the stressors, and, overall, population growth rates were 12-20 % lower in the warmest year compared to the coolest year, depending on fragment size. When temperature and fragment area were combined in models of recruitment, survival, and population growth, their effects were more frequently interactive than additive, however these interactions were rarely synergistic. Independently, temperature also received more model support than fragment area and tended to have a greater impact on demographic rates across species. Despite the complexity of the interactions between fragment area and temperature, their total effects on tropical bird demographic rates were largely detrimental. The development of effective conservation strategies for montane tropical bird species needs to account for these combined impacts.

Wildlife in climate refugia: Mammalian diversity, occupancy, and tiger distribution in the Western Himalayas, Nepal

Anthropogenic land-use change continues to be predicated as a major driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss for the rest of this century. It has been determined that the effect of climate change on wildlife population will accelerate the rate and process of decline of global vertebrate populations. We investigated wildlife composition, occupancy, and activity pattern along the larger climate resilient forests that serve as microrefugia for a wide range of species under the escalating climate change. We used camera trap survey covering 250 km2 of climate microrefugia in Dadeldhura hills in far western region of Nepal. We used 62 trapping locations accumulating 1800 trap nights taking 98,916 photographs in 62 days-survey period during the summer season of 2020. We photographed 23 mammalian species with estimated species richness of 30 species (95% CI: 25-34) based on multi-species occupancy model. We estimated overall species occupancy ψ(SE(ψ)) to be 0.87 (0.09) in climatic microrefugia. While human activity predominated throughout the day, the majority of animals was found to exhibit nocturnal temporal patterns. Tiger and hyaena, two of the top predators, were newly discovered in the western Himalayan range of Nepal, with their discovery at the 34 highest elevations of 2511 meters and 2000m, respectively. In Nepal, high-altitude tiger range is characterized by tiger distribution above a 2000 m cutoff representing habitats in the physiographic zone of high mountains and above. Our findings establish a baseline and show that the climatic microrefugia that have been identified have high levels of species richness and occupancy, which characterize the Dadeldhura hill forest ranges as biologically varied and ecologically significant habitat. These areas identified as climatic microrefugia habitats should be the focus of conservation efforts, particularly efforts to reduce human disturbance and adapt to climate change.

Impact of multiple small and persistent threats on extinction risk

Many species may face multiple distinct and persistent drivers of extinction risk, yet theoretical and empirical studies tend to focus on the single largest driver. This means that existing approaches potentially underestimate and mischaracterize future risks to biodiversity. We synthesized existing knowledge on how multiple drivers of extinction can interact to influence a species' overall extinction probability in a probabilistic model of extinction risk that incorporated the impacts of multiple drivers of extinction risk, their interactions, and their accumulative effects through time. We then used this model framework to explore how different threats, interactions between them, and time trends may affect a species' overall extinction probability. Multiple small threats together had potential to pose a large cumulative extinction risk; for example, 10 individual threats posed a 1% extinction risk each and cumulatively posed a 9.7% total extinction risk. Interactions among drivers resulted in escalated risk in some cases, and persistent threats with a small (1%) extinction risk each decade ultimately posed large extinction risk over 100 (9.6% total extinction risk) to 200 years (18.2% total extinction risk). By estimating long-term extinction risk posed by several different factors and their interactions, this approach provides a framework to identify drivers of extinction risk that could be proactively targeted to help prevent species currently of least concern from becoming threatened with extinction.

Beneficial Effects of Warming Temperatures on Embryonic and Hatchling Development in a Low-Latitude Margin Population of the High-Latitude Lizard Lacerta agilis

The effects of warming temperatures on embryonic and hatchling development are critical for determining the vulnerability of species to climate warming. However, these effects have rarely been investigated in high-latitude oviparous species, particularly in their low-latitude margin populations. This study investigated the embryonic and hatchling development and fitness-related traits of a low-latitude margin population of a high-latitude lizard (Lacerta agilis). These traits were examined under present (24°C), moderate warming (27 and 30°C), and severe warming scenarios (33°C). Based on embryonic and hatchling responses to thermal variation, this study aimed to predict the vulnerability of the early life stages of low-latitude margin population of Lacerta agilis to climate warming. The incubation period of the low-latitude margin population of Lacerta agilis decreased as the temperature increased from 24 to 33°C. Hatching success was similar at 24, 27, and 30°C but decreased significantly at 33°C. No differences with temperature were observed for hatchling snout-vent length and hatchling body mass. The sprint speed was higher for hatchlings from temperatures of 24 and 33°C. The growth rate of hatchlings was highest at 30°C; however, the survival rate of hatchlings was not affected by the thermal environment. This study demonstrated that even for a low-latitude margin population of the high-latitude lizard, Lacerta agilis, moderate warming (i.e., 27 and 30°C) would benefit embryonic and hatchling development. This was indicated by the results showing higher hatching success, growth rate, and survival rate. However, if temperatures increase above 33°C, development and survival would be depressed significantly. Thus, low-latitude margin population of high-latitude species Lacerta agilis would benefit from climate warming in the near future but would be under stress if the nest temperature exceeded 30°C.

Matrix condition mediates the effects of habitat fragmentation on species extinction risk

Habitat loss is the leading cause of the global decline in biodiversity, but the influence of human pressure within the matrix surrounding habitat fragments remains poorly understood. Here, we measure the relationship between fragmentation (the degree of fragmentation and the degree of patch isolation), matrix condition (measured as the extent of high human footprint levels), and the change in extinction risk of 4,426 terrestrial mammals. We find that the degree of fragmentation is strongly associated with changes in extinction risk, with higher predictive importance than life-history traits and human pressure variables. Importantly, we discover that fragmentation and the matrix condition are stronger predictors of risk than habitat loss and habitat amount. Moreover, the importance of fragmentation increases with an increasing deterioration of the matrix condition. These findings suggest that restoration of the habitat matrix may be an important conservation action for mitigating the negative effects of fragmentation on biodiversity.

The influence of human pressure within the matrix surrounding habitat fragments remains poorly understood. This study measures the relationship between habitat fragmentation, matrix condition and the change in extinction risk of 4,426 terrestrial mammals, finding that fragmentation and matrix condition are stronger predictors of risk than habitat loss and habitat amount.

Drivers of pesticide resistance in freshwater amphipods

Aquatic invertebrates exposed to pesticides may develop pesticide resistance. Based on a meta-analysis we revealed environmental factors driving the magnitude of resistance in the freshwater amphipod Gammarus pulex in the field. We showed that (i) insecticide tolerance of G. pulex increased with pesticide contamination in agricultural streams generally by a factor of up to 4. Tolerance increased even at concentrations lower than what is considered safe in regulatory risk assessment (ii) The increase in insecticide tolerance was pronounced at high test concentrations; comparing the LC50 of populations therefore potentially underestimates the development of resistance. (iii) Insecticide resistance in agricultural streams diminished during the spraying season, suggesting that adverse effects of sublethal concentrations in the short term contrast long-term adaptation to insecticide exposure. (iv) We found that resistance was especially high in populations characterized not only by high pesticide exposure, but also by large distance (>3.3 km) from non-polluted stream sections and by low species diversity within the invertebrate community. We conclude that the test concentration, the timing of measurement, distance to refuge areas and species diversity mediate the observed response of aquatic communities to pesticide pollution and need to be considered for the sustainable management of agricultural practices.

Climate change impact on ecosystem functions provided by birds in southeastern Amazonia

Although the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasing worldwide, few studies have attempted to forecast these impacts on Amazon Tropical Forest. In this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on Amazonian avian assemblages considering range shifts, species loss, vulnerability of ecosystem functioning, future effectiveness of current protected areas and potential climatically stable areas for conservation actions. Species distribution modelling based on two algorithms and three different scenarios of climate change was used to forecast 501 avian species, organized on main ecosystem functions (frugivores, insectivores and nectarivores) for years 2050 and 2070. Considering the entire study area, we estimated that between 4 and 19% of the species will find no suitable habitat. Inside the currently established protected areas, species loss could be over 70%. Our results suggest that frugivores are the most sensitive guild, which could bring consequences on seed dispersal functions and on natural regeneration. Moreover, we identified the western and northern parts of the study area as climatically stable. Climate change will potentially affect avian assemblages in southeastern Amazonia with detrimental consequences to their ecosystem functions. Information provided here is essential to conservation practitioners and decision makers to help on planning their actions.

Quantifying multiple pressure interactions affecting populations of a recreationally and commercially important freshwater fish

The expanding human global footprint and growing demand for freshwater have placed tremendous stress on inland aquatic ecosystems. Aichi Target 10 of the Convention on Biological Diversity aims to minimize anthropogenic pressures affecting vulnerable ecosystems, and pressure interactions are increasingly being incorporated into environmental management and climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, we explore how climate change, overfishing, forest disturbance, and invasive species pressures interact to affect inland lake walleye (Sander vitreus) populations. Walleye support subsistence, recreational, and commercial fisheries and are one of most sought-after freshwater fish species in North America. Using data from 444 lakes situated across an area of 475 000 km² in Ontario, Canada, we apply a novel statistical tool, R-INLA, to determine how walleye biomass deficit (carrying capacity-observed biomass) is impacted by multiple pressures. Individually, angling activity and the presence of invasive zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) were positively related to biomass deficits. In combination, zebra mussel presence interacted negatively and antagonistically with angling activity and percentage decrease in watershed mature forest cover. Velocity of climate change in growing degree days above 5°C and decrease in mature forest cover interacted to negatively affect walleye populations. Our study demonstrates how multiple pressure evaluations can be conducted for hundreds of populations to identify influential pressures and vulnerable ecosystems. Understanding pressure interactions is necessary to guide management and climate change adaptation strategies, and achieve global biodiversity targets.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long-term life-history data in seven species

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29-52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long-term life-history data in seven species

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29-52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates.

Gamebird responses to anthropogenic forest fragmentation and degradation in a southern Amazonian landscape

Although large-bodied tropical forest birds are impacted by both habitat loss and fragmentation, their patterns of habitat occupancy will also depend on the degree of forest habitat disturbance, which may interact synergistically or additively with fragmentation effects. Here, we examine the effects of forest patch and landscape metrics, and levels of forest disturbance on the patterns of persistence of six gamebird taxa in the southern Brazilian Amazon. We use both interview data conducted with long-term residents and/or landowners from 129 remnant forest patches and 15 continuous forest sites and line-transect census data from a subset of 21 forest patches and two continuous forests. Forest patch area was the strongest predictor of species persistence, explaining as much as 46% of the overall variation in gamebird species richness. Logistic regression models showed that anthropogenic disturbance—including surface wildfires, selective logging and hunting pressure—had a variety of effects on species persistence. Most large-bodied gamebird species were sensitive to forest fragmentation, occupying primarily large, high-quality forest patches in higher abundances, and were typically absent from patches <100 ha. Our findings highlight the importance of large (>10,000 ha), relatively undisturbed forest patches to both maximize persistence and maintain baseline abundances of large neotropical forest birds.

An Amazonian rainforest and its fragments as a laboratory of global change

We synthesize findings from one of the world's largest and longest-running experimental investigations, the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP). Spanning an area of ∼1000 km² in central Amazonia, the BDFFP was initially designed to evaluate the effects of fragment area on rainforest biodiversity and ecological processes. However, over its 38-year history to date the project has far transcended its original mission, and now focuses more broadly on landscape dynamics, forest regeneration, regional- and global-change phenomena, and their potential interactions and implications for Amazonian forest conservation. The project has yielded a wealth of insights into the ecological and environmental changes in fragmented forests. For instance, many rainforest species are naturally rare and hence are either missing entirely from many fragments or so sparsely represented as to have little chance of long-term survival. Additionally, edge effects are a prominent driver of fragment dynamics, strongly affecting forest microclimate, tree mortality, carbon storage and a diversity of fauna. Even within our controlled study area, the landscape has been highly dynamic: for example, the matrix of vegetation surrounding fragments has changed markedly over time, succeeding from large cattle pastures or forest clearcuts to secondary regrowth forest. This, in turn, has influenced the dynamics of plant and animal communities and their trajectories of change over time. In general, fauna and flora have responded differently to fragmentation: the most locally extinction-prone animal species are those that have both large area requirements and low tolerance of the modified habitats surrounding fragments, whereas the most vulnerable plants are those that respond poorly to edge effects or chronic forest disturbances, and that rely on vulnerable animals for seed dispersal or pollination. Relative to intact forests, most fragments are hyperdynamic, with unstable or fluctuating populations of species in response to a variety of external vicissitudes. Rare weather events such as droughts, windstorms and floods have had strong impacts on fragments and left lasting legacies of change. Both forest fragments and the intact forests in our study area appear to be influenced by larger-scale environmental drivers operating at regional or global scales. These drivers are apparently increasing forest productivity and have led to concerted, widespread increases in forest dynamics and plant growth, shifts in tree-community composition, and increases in liana (woody vine) abundance. Such large-scale drivers are likely to interact synergistically with habitat fragmentation, exacerbating its effects for some species and ecological phenomena. Hence, the impacts of fragmentation on Amazonian biodiversity and ecosystem processes appear to be a consequence not only of local site features but also of broader changes occurring at landscape, regional and even global scales.

Interactions among ecosystem stressors and their importance in conservation

Interactions between multiple ecosystem stressors are expected to jeopardize biological processes, functions and biodiversity. The scientific community has declared stressor interactions-notably synergies-a key issue for conservation and management. Here, we review ecological literature over the past four decades to evaluate trends in the reporting of ecological interactions (synergies, antagonisms and additive effects) and highlight the implications and importance to conservation. Despite increasing popularity, and ever-finer terminologies, we find that synergies are (still) not the most prevalent type of interaction, and that conservation practitioners need to appreciate and manage for all interaction outcomes, including antagonistic and additive effects. However, it will not be possible to identify the effect of every interaction on every organism's physiology and every ecosystem function because the number of stressors, and their potential interactions, are growing rapidly. Predicting the type of interactions may be possible in the near-future, using meta-analyses, conservation-oriented experiments and adaptive monitoring. Pending a general framework for predicting interactions, conservation management should enact interventions that are robust to uncertainty in interaction type and that continue to bolster biological resilience in a stressful world.

The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants

Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants. In this study, we analyzed changes in biotic interactions in forest fragments by using a multitrophic approach. For this, we classified arthropods associated with Heliconia aurantiaca herbs into broad trophic guilds (omnivores, herbivores and predators) and assessed the topological structure of intrapopulation plant-arthropod networks in fragments and continuous forests. Habitat type influenced arthropod species abundance, diversity and composition with greater abundance in fragments but greater diversity in continuous forest. According to trophic guilds, coleopteran herbivores were more abundant in continuous forest and overall omnivores in fragments. Continuous forest showed a greater diversity of interactions than fragments. Only in fragments, however, did the arthropod community associated with H aurantiaca show a nested structure, suggesting novel and/or opportunistic host-arthropod associations. Plants, omnivores and predators contributed more to nestedness than herbivores. Therefore, Heliconia-arthropod network properties do not appear to be maintained in fragments mainly caused by the decrease of herbivores. Our study contributes to the understanding of the impact of fragmentation on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic arthropod communities associated with a particular plant species of the highly biodiverse tropical forests. Nevertheless, further replication of study sites is needed to strengthen the conclusion that forest fragmentation negatively affects arthropod assemblages.

Habitat fragmentation and its lasting impact on Earth's ecosystems

We conducted an analysis of global forest cover to reveal that 70% of remaining forest is within 1 km of the forest's edge, subject to the degrading effects of fragmentation. A synthesis of fragmentation experiments spanning multiple biomes and scales, five continents, and 35 years demonstrates that habitat fragmentation reduces biodiversity by 13 to 75% and impairs key ecosystem functions by decreasing biomass and altering nutrient cycles. Effects are greatest in the smallest and most isolated fragments, and they magnify with the passage of time. These findings indicate an urgent need for conservation and restoration measures to improve landscape connectivity, which will reduce extinction rates and help maintain ecosystem services.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Multi-scales analysis of primate diversity and protected areas at a megadiverse region

In this paper, we address the question of what proportion of biodiversity is represented within protected areas. We assessed the effectiveness of different protected area types at multiple scales in representing primate biodiversity in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. We used point locality data and distribution data for primate species within 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25° spatial resolution grids, and computed the area of reserves within each cell. Four different approaches were used - no reserves (A), exclusively strict use reserves (B), strict and sustainable use reserves (C), and strict and sustainable use reserves and indigenous lands (D). We used the complementarity concept to select reserve networks. The proportions of cells that were classified as reserves at a grid resolution of 1° were 37%, 64%, and 88% for approaches B, C and D, respectively. Our comparison of these approaches clearly showed the effect of an increase in area on species representation. Representation was consistently higher at coarser resolutions, indicating the effect of grain size. The high number of irreplaceable cells for selected networks identified based on approach A could be attributed to the use of point locality occurrence data. Although the limited number of point occurrences for some species may have been due to a Wallacean shortfall, in some cases it may also be the result of an actual restricted geographic distribution. The existing reserve system cannot be ignored, as it has an established structure, legal protection status, and societal recognition, and undoubtedly represents important elements of biodiversity. However, we found that strict use reserves (which are exclusively dedicated to biodiversity conservation) did not effectively represent primate species. This finding may be related to historical criteria for selecting reserves based on political, economic, or social motives.

Forest trees in human modified landscapes: ecological and genetic drivers of recruitment failure in Dysoxylum malabaricum (Meliaceae)

Tropical agro-forest landscapes are global priority areas for biodiversity conservation. Little is known about the ability of these landscapes to sustain large late successional forest trees upon which much forest biodiversity depends. These landscapes are subject to fragmentation and additional habitat degradation which may limit tree recruitment and thus compromise numerous ecosystem services including carbon storage and timber production. Dysoxylum malabaricum is a large canopy tree species in the Meliaceae, a family including many important tropical timber trees. This species is found in highly fragmented forest patches within a complex agro-forest landscape of the Western Ghats biodiversity hot spot, South India. In this paper we combined a molecular assessment of inbreeding with ecological and demographic data to explore the multiple threats to recruitment of this tree species. An evaluation of inbreeding, using eleven microsatellite loci in 297 nursery-reared seedlings collected form low and high density forest patches embedded in an agro-forest matrix, shows that mating between related individuals in low density patches leads to reduced seedling performance. By quantifying habitat degradation and tree recruitment within these forest patches we show that increasing canopy openness and the increased abundance of pioneer tree species lead to a general decline in the suitability of forest patches for the recruitment of D. malabaricum. We conclude that elevated inbreeding due to reduced adult tree density coupled with increased degradation of forest patches, limit the recruitment of this rare late successional tree species. Management strategies which maintain canopy cover and enhance local densities of adult trees in agro-forest mosaics will be required to ensure D. malabaricum persists in these landscapes. Our study highlights the need for a holistic understanding of the incipient processes that threaten populations of many important and rare tropical tree species in human dominated agro-forest landscapes.

Parasites and the conservation of small populations: The case of Baylisascaris procyonis

Human demands on natural resources result in landscape changes that facilitate the emergence of disease. Most emerging diseases are zoonotic, and some of these pathogens play a role in the decline of vulnerable wildlife species. Baylisascaris procyonis, the common roundworm parasite of raccoons (Procyon lotor), is a well recognized zoonotic infection that has many of the properties associated with a pathogen capable of driving extinction. It is highly non-specific and frequently pathogenic with regard to paratenic hosts, which contact eggs of B. procyonis at raccoon latrines. Eggs accumulate at latrines and remain viable for many years. Transmission of B. procyonis is sensitive to changes in land-use, and fragmented habitats increase contact rates between raccoons, potential paratenic hosts, and the parasite. Raccoons, and subsequently B. procyonis, have been introduced to Europe and Japan, where naïve vertebrates may be exposed to the parasite. Finally, domestic animals and exotic pets can carry patent infections with B. procyonis, thus increasing environmental contamination beyond raccoon latrines, and expanding the area of risk to potential paratenic hosts. This parasite can potentially contribute to extinctions of vulnerable species, as exemplified by the case of the Allegheny woodrat (Neotoma magister), a species that has experienced local declines and extinctions that are linked to B. procyonis. Conservation strategies for vulnerable species should consider the transmission ecology of parasitic pathogens, like B. procyonis.

Increasing arboreality with altitude: a novel biogeographic dimension

Biodiversity is spatially organized by climatic gradients across elevation and latitude. But do other gradients exist that might drive biogeographic patterns? Here, we show that rainforest's vertical strata provide climatic gradients much steeper than those offered by elevation and latitude, and biodiversity of arboreal species is organized along this gradient. In Philippine and Singaporean rainforests, we demonstrate that rainforest frogs tend to shift up in the rainforest strata as altitude increases. Moreover, a Philippine-wide dataset of frog distributions shows that frog assemblages become increasingly arboreal at higher elevations. Thus, increased arboreality with elevation at broad biogeographic scales mirrors patterns we observed at local scales. Our proposed 'arboreality hypothesis' suggests that the ability to exploit arboreal habitats confers the potential for larger geographical distributions because species can shift their location in the rainforest strata to compensate for shifts in temperature associated with elevation and latitude. This novel finding may help explain patterns of species richness and abundance wherever vegetation produces a vertical microclimatic gradient. Our results further suggest that global warming will 'flatten' the biodiversity in rainforests by pushing arboreal species towards the cooler and wetter ground. This 'flattening' could potentially have serious impacts on forest functioning and species survival.

Economic and environmental impacts of harmful non-indigenous species in southeast Asia

Harmful non-indigenous species (NIS) impose great economic and environmental impacts globally, but little is known about their impacts in Southeast Asia. Lack of knowledge of the magnitude of the problem hinders the allocation of appropriate resources for NIS prevention and management. We used benefit-cost analysis embedded in a Monte-Carlo simulation model and analysed economic and environmental impacts of NIS in the region to estimate the total burden of NIS in Southeast Asia. The total annual loss caused by NIS to agriculture, human health and the environment in Southeast Asia is estimated to be US$33.5 billion (5^th and 95^th percentile US$25.8–39.8 billion). Losses and costs to the agricultural sector are estimated to be nearly 90% of the total (US$23.4–33.9 billion), while the annual costs associated with human health and the environment are US$1.85 billion (US$1.4–2.5 billion) and US$2.1 billion (US$0.9–3.3 billion), respectively, although these estimates are based on conservative assumptions. We demonstrate that the economic and environmental impacts of NIS in low and middle-income regions can be considerable and that further measures, such as the adoption of regional risk assessment protocols to inform decisions on prevention and control of NIS in Southeast Asia, could be beneficial.

Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States

Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species – little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) – in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999–2011.

Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus has wide applicability for evaluating population trajectories in other wildlife species.

A new method for identifying rapid decline dynamics in wild vertebrate populations

Tracking trends in the abundance of wildlife populations is a sensitive method for assessing biodiversity change due to the short time-lag between human pressures and corresponding shifts in population trends. This study tests for proposed associations between different types of human pressures and wildlife population abundance decline-curves and introduces a method to distinguish decline trajectories from natural fluctuations in population time-series. First, we simulated typical mammalian population time-series under different human pressure types and intensities and identified significant distinctions in population dynamics. Based on the concavity of the smoothed population trend and the algebraic function which was the closest fit to the data, we determined those differences in decline dynamics that were consistently attributable to each pressure type. We examined the robustness of the attribution of pressure type to population decline dynamics under more realistic conditions by simulating populations under different levels of environmental stochasticity and time-series data quality. Finally, we applied our newly developed method to 124 wildlife population time-series and investigated how those threat types diagnosed by our method compare to the specific threatening processes reported for those populations. We show how wildlife population decline curves can be used to discern between broad categories of pressure or threat types, but do not work for detailed threat attributions. More usefully, we find that differences in population decline curves can reliably identify populations where pressure is increasing over time, even when data quality is poor, and propose this method as a cost-effective technique for prioritizing conservation actions between populations.

On the hope for biodiversity-friendly tropical landscapes

With the decreasing affordability of protecting large blocks of pristine tropical forests, ecologists have staked their hopes on the management of human-modified landscapes (HMLs) to conserve tropical biodiversity. Here, we examine key forces affecting the dynamics of HMLs, and propose a framework connecting human disturbances, land use, and prospects for both tropical biodiversity and ecosystem services. We question the forest transition as a worldwide source of new secondary forest; the role played by regenerating (secondary) forest for biodiversity conservation, and the resilience of HMLs. We then offer a conceptual model describing potential successional trajectories among four major landscape types (natural, conservation, functional, and degraded) and highlight the potential implications of our model in terms of research agendas and conservation planning.

Degree of landscape fragmentation influences genetic isolation among populations of a gliding mammal

Forests and woodlands are under continuing pressure from urban and agricultural development. Tree-dependent mammals that rarely venture to the ground are likely to be highly sensitive to forest fragmentation. The Australian squirrel glider (Petaurus norfolcensis) provides an excellent case study to examine genetic (functional) connectivity among populations. It has an extensive range that occurs in a wide band along the east coast. However, its forest and woodland habitat has become greatly reduced in area and is severely fragmented within the southern inland part of the species' range, where it is recognised as threatened. Within central and northern coastal regions, habitat is much more intact and we thus hypothesise that genetic connectivity will be greater in this region than in the south. To test this we employed microsatellite analysis in a molecular population biology approach. Most sampling locations in the highly modified south showed signatures of genetic isolation. In contrast, a high level of genetic connectivity was inferred among most sampled populations in the more intact habitat of the coastal region, with samples collected 1400 km apart having similar genetic cluster membership. Nonetheless, some coastal populations associated with urbanisation and agriculture are genetically isolated, suggesting the historic pattern observed in the south is emerging on the coast. Our study demonstrates that massive landscape changes following European settlement have had substantial impacts on levels of connectivity among squirrel glider populations, as predicted on the basis of the species' ecology. This suggests that landscape planning and management in the south should be focused on restoring habitat connectivity where feasible, while along the coast, existing habitat connectivity must be maintained and recent losses restored. Molecular population biology approaches provide a ready means for identifying fragmentation effects on a species at multiple scales. Such studies are required to examine the generality of our findings for other tree-dependent species.

Index insurance for pro-poor conservation of hornbills in Thailand

This study explores the potential of index insurance as a mechanism to finance community-based biodiversity conservation in areas where a strong correlation exists between natural disaster risk, keystone species populations, and the well-being of the local population. We illustrate this potential using the case of hornbill conservation in the Budo-Sungai Padi rainforests of southern Thailand, using 16-y hornbill reproduction data and 5-y household expenditures data reflecting local economic well-being. We show that severe windstorms cause both lower household expenditures and critical nest tree losses that directly constrain nesting capacity and so reduce the number of hornbill chicks recruited in the following breeding season. Forest residents' coping strategies further disturb hornbills and their forest habitats, compounding windstorms' adverse effects on hornbills' recruitment in the following year. The strong statistical relationship between wind speed and both hornbill nest tree losses and household expenditures opens up an opportunity to design wind-based index insurance contracts that could both enhance hornbill conservation and support disaster-affected households in the region. We demonstrate how such contracts could be written and operationalized and then use simulations to show the significant promise of unique insurance-based approaches to address weather-related risk that threatens both biodiversity and poor populations.