Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Ecological implications of the direct effects of fire on neotropical vertebrates

Changes in fire regimes have significantly impacted wildlife, affecting both mortality rates and indirect effects on fauna. Estimating the direct effects of fire on animals is complex and variable, revealing a critical knowledge gap regarding animal mortality and the consequent loss of ecosystem services. To address this gap, we conducted an analysis to identify the taxonomic groups most negatively affected by fire and to assess the ecosystem services provided by impacted mammals. We utilized a Citizen Science-based database containing photographs of animals directly affected by fire in Brazil. Our dataset includes 2638 individuals distributed across five of the six Brazilian biomes. Our results indicate that reptiles were the most affected group (59.02 %), followed by mammals (28.20 %). Among the most compromised ecosystem services are disease sentinelling, the cultural value of charismatic species, ecotourism, and seed dispersal. Additionally, we confirmed the hypothesis that small-bodied and low-mobility animals are the most vulnerable, accounting for 64.78 % of the records. Finally, we recommend strategies to mitigate the negative effects of fire on wildlife and to enhance the understanding of these impacts, such as biodiversity monitoring using genetic methodologies.

Predicting parasitic plants Loranthus Europaeus range shifts in response to climate change

Climate change significantly influences the distribution of parasitic species, posing threats to ecosystems and economies. This study examines the potential range expansion of Loranthus europaeus, a parasitic plant impacting European forestry. We assessed the impact of predicted climate change for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 using MaxEnt modeling based on current occurrence data of L. europaeus, and the main host plant genus oak Quercus, as well as bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.92). The most important variables for Europe range were range of Quercus genus. Key environmental factors included isothermality (bio3) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8). Under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, our results predict significant range expansions into northern and eastern Europe, with increases of 43.5% and 53.9% by 2041-2060. Conversely, southern Europe may see contractions of 16.4-20.6%. Projections for 2061-2080 indicate further expansions up to 65.8% in northern Europe, alongside contractions up to 29.8% in southern regions, including Turkey and Greece.These shifts highlight the influence of climate change on L. europaeus distribution and underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological and economic impacts.

Global spatiotemporal patterns of demographic fluctuations in terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Pleistocene

Demographic fluctuations are crucial for assessing species' threat levels, yet their global spatiotemporal patterns and historical drivers remain unknown. Here, we used single whole-genome sequence data for 527 extant and widespread terrestrial vertebrates to investigate their demographic fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene. Effective population size (Ne) simulations indicated that all taxa experienced a population decline from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). After the LGM, birds and amphibians underwent population expansion, whereas mammals and reptiles' populations declined. Regions with high Ne shifted from Neotropical to Afrotropical and to Palearctic, some overlapping with recognized glacial refugia and biodiversity hotspots. In addition, climate-related factors exerted long-term effects on Ne, while human disturbances might confine to specific regions around the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary. This study underscores the significance of quantifying vertebrate genetic vulnerability to guide biodiversity conservation in response to environmental changes.

Biodiversity Impacts of Land Occupation for Renewable Energy Infrastructure in a Globally Connected World

The transition to renewable energy exacerbates direct land occupation by infrastructure, leading to habitat degradation and biodiversity loss. However, biodiversity loss driven by the production and consumption of different renewable energy deployment scenarios remains largely unquantified. Quantifying biodiversity loss associated with land occupation of renewable energy infrastructure is essential for a sustainable energy transition. Here, we developed a novel data set to evaluate renewable energy-related biodiversity loss by considering the current infrastructure setting and future development pathways. We found that the land occupation of renewable energy infrastructure resulted in global biodiversity loss equivalent amounting to 19 × 10-4 global pdf in 2015. Severe biodiversity loss was concentrated primarily in densely populated and economically advanced countries, such as China, the United States, Brazil, India, Australia, Russia, and countries across Western Europe. International trade accounted for 14% of the biodiversity loss. Future renewable energy transition scenarios will lead to a global cumulative biodiversity loss of 1.2 × 10-2-2.2 × 10-2 global pdf during 2015-2060. By 2060, ambitious energy transition policies are projected to increase the biodiversity loss by 1.7-1.8 times. The results underscore that while renewable energy could tackle climate change, its deployment should avoid encroaching on biodiversity hotspots.

Marine biodiversity loss in Finnish coastal waters: Evidence and implications for management

Marine biodiversity loss poses significant ecological and socio-economic challenges. This paper examines how coastal biodiversity loss is expressed and outlines implications for management. Synthesizing scientific literature on biodiversity change in the well-studied Finnish coastal waters (Baltic Sea) as a case study, we show that biodiversity loss occurs throughout the area in virtually all biotopes and organism groups examined. Biodiversity loss was expressed in 43 different ways. The three most common forms of biodiversity loss-local disappearance of species and decrease in abundance and biomass-covered nearly half of the observations. For these, the most common underlying causes were eutrophication, climate change, and physical disturbance of the seabed. Overall, eutrophication and climate change were the most frequent ones among the 13 loss drivers identified. We emphasize that critical knowledge gaps must be bridged, and monitoring improved, but, importantly, resolute decisions for action are required for the recovery of coastal marine ecosystems.

Modelling the hydrological response of blue-green roofs: ECO-PRO model

Green roofs are climate-adaptive measures able to address many urban challenges like heat islands, water scarcity, floodings, pollution and biodiversity loss. Recently, the "blue-green roof" variant has gained attention for its enhanced functionality, since, incorporating a high-capacity storage layer, they can retain significant amount of rainwater. This last can be gradually released, reducing stress on urban drainage during heavy storms, sustain passive irrigation and provide greywater for reuse. Modelling green infrastructures is essential for optimizing design and efficacy, and, in this context, ecohydrological models, which capture the complex ecological and hydrological interactions, offer a valuable option. This study introduces the ECO-hydrological Polder Roof mOdel (ECO-PRO), a tailored ecohydrological model specifically for multilayer green roofs. ECO-PRO is a numerical model able to simulate dynamically the blue-green roofs hydrological response to climate conditions and management practices, estimating water flow and storage across layers. The model was implemented based on an experimental site in Palermo (Italy), using a high-resolution dataset and performing parameters optimization through genetic algorithms. Simulated water fluxes and time series of soil moisture and outflow generated by the system demonstrated strong alignment with observed data over a three-year monitoring period, with robust performance indicators. Notably, the coefficient of determination (R2) for daily runoff was 0.88. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty assessments further validated the model's reliability. A test model application accurately captured stormwater retention after prolonged rainy spells (R2 = 0.91), confirming its effectiveness for the dynamic assessment of water volumes released and retained by the system.

Meeting European Union biodiversity targets under future land-use demands

The European Union is committed to achieving ambitious area-based conservation and restoration targets in the upcoming decade. However, there is concern that these targets risk conflicting with socioeconomic needs, particularly for food, timber and bioenergy production. Here we develop an integrated spatial planning approach to identify where restoration, conservation and production allocation could maximize benefits to species conservation and climate mitigation, while acknowledging future land demands of the bio-economy. We show that, while changing production demands risk driving further biodiversity loss by 2030, when these demands are met alongside strategic restoration measures, as outlined by the EU Nature Restoration Regulation, future landscapes could improve the conservation status of populations for more than 20% of species of conservation concern while also increasing terrestrial carbon stocks. Our analysis demonstrates how critical the Nature Restoration Regulation is to achieving biodiversity targets and how integrated planning can align biodiversity policy objectives with future socioeconomic demands.

Climate mediates the predictability of threats to marine biodiversity

Anthropogenic climate change is driving rapid changes in marine ecosystems across the global ocean. The spatiotemporal footprints of other anthropogenic threats, such as infrastructure development, shipping, and fisheries, will also inevitably shift under climate change, but we find that these shifts are not yet accounted for in most projections of climate futures in marine systems. We summarise what is known about threat-shifting in response to climate change, and identify sources of predictability that have implications for ecological forecasting. We recommend that, where possible, the dynamics of anthropogenic threats are accounted for in nowcasts, forecasts, and projections designed for spatial management and conservation planning, and highlight key themes for future research into threat dynamics in a changing ocean.

Achieving the Global Biodiversity Framework Under Climate Change

We have committed to ambitious targets under the Global Biodiversity Framework, but projected climate change makes the achievement of many of these targets extremely difficult and will effectively require a significant rethinking in how to achieve multiple targets. In this Opinion, we have chosen to focus on selected targets, considering how their achievement is likely to be compromised by climate change but also what the possibility of real response options might be. We focus on restoration (Target 2), spatial planning and integration (Targets 1, 2, 3 and 10), sustainable use and sustainable benefits to people (Targets 5, 9 and 10) and, finally, equity and social justice (Targets 13, 20-23 and Goal C). Now more than ever, the window for effective action on climate change and biodiversity is closing, requiring rapid and, most importantly, collective action.

Global floating kelp forests have limited protection despite intensifying marine heatwave threats

Kelp forests are one of the earth's most productive ecosystems and are at great risk from climate change, yet little is known regarding their current conservation status and global future threats. Here, by combining a global remote sensing dataset of floating kelp forests with climate data and projections, we find that exposure to projected marine heatwaves will increase ~6 to ~16 times in the long term (2081-2100) compared to contemporary (2001-2020) exposure. While exposure will intensify across all regions, some southern hemisphere areas which have lower exposure to contemporary and projected marine heatwaves may provide climate refugia for floating kelp forests. Under these escalating threats, less than 3% of global floating kelp forests are currently within highly restrictive marine protected areas (MPAs), the most effective MPAs for protecting biodiversity. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to increase the global protection of floating kelp forests and set bolder climate adaptation goals.

New opportunities and challenges for conservation evidence synthesis from advances in natural language processing

Addressing global environmental conservation problems requires rapidly translating natural and conservation social science evidence to policy-relevant information. Yet, exponential increases in scientific production combined with disciplinary differences in reporting research make interdisciplinary evidence syntheses especially challenging. Ongoing developments in natural language processing (NLP), such as large language models, machine learning (ML), and data mining, hold the promise of accelerating cross-disciplinary evidence syntheses and primary research. The evolution of ML, NLP, and artificial intelligence (AI) systems in computational science research provides new approaches to accelerate all stages of evidence synthesis in conservation social science. To show how ML, language processing, and AI can help automate and scale evidence syntheses in conservation social science, we describe methods that can automate querying the literature, process large and unstructured bodies of textual evidence, and extract parameters of interest from scientific studies. Automation can translate to other research agendas in conservation social science by categorizing and labeling data at scale, yet there are major unanswered questions about how to use hybrid AI-expert systems ethically and effectively in conservation.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol consumption in young adults: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented restrictions, leading to differences in the frequency and patterns of alcohol consumption, especially among young adults. This systematic review aims to investigate the overall evidence concerning changes in alcohol consumption in this period.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

Adhering to PRISMA and SWiM guidelines, this study's review protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023464591). The studies research was carried out in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Inclusion criteria involved observational studies focusing on participants aged 18 to 35, exploring alcohol consumption during at least the first wave of COVID-19, and publications in English or Spanish.

RESULTS

A total of 28 studies conducted in different countries were included, European (18), North American (9), and Latin American (1). Although in many studies the overall prevalence of alcohol use was reduced, it was mainly among occasional users, in which the main motivation was the lack of social contact. It was exposed that participants with a high risk of problematic use increased their alcohol consumption, showing associated factors such as poor mental health, depressive symptoms, stress, and coping motivations. Males generally exhibited a higher risk of problem use and risky behaviours than females.

CONCLUSIONS

During COVID-19, youth alcohol consumption decreased overall, especially among social drinkers, but increased among high-risk users due to factors like distress and loneliness. Similar trends during other disasters emphasize the importance of addressing high-risk drinking in disaster planning. Also, preventing high-risk drinking from adolescence and youth could be helpful in reducing the global burden and impact of alcohol consumption.

A relational turn in climate change adaptation: Evidence from urban nature-based solutions

The emergence of nature-based solutions (NbS) in science, policy, and practice signals a paradigmatic shift in urban climate change adaptation, yet empirical investigations into its impact on adaptation definitions and progress tracking remain scarce. Addressing this gap, we conducted thematic analysis on semi-structured interviews (n = 15) with practitioners responsible for implementing and evaluating urban NbS in different countries. We provide a nuanced understanding of urban adaptation goals within urban NbS according to the insights from these practitioners, extending beyond hazard mitigation and towards cultivating and strengthening relationships between humans and nature. Tracking adaptation progress towards such relational adaptation goals requires acknowledging knowledge pluralism and the diversity of human-nature relations. We propose an alternative definition of adaptation supported by our data that aims to foster a more holistic approach to urban climate adaptation that accounts for the potential benefits of urban NbS across interconnected climate, biodiversity, and social goals.

One Health and planetary health research landscapes in the Arab world

This review explored research trends in One Health and planetary health in the Arab world, a region confronting major sustainability challenges. These fields are crucial in combating global pressing concerns like infectious diseases, biodiversity loss, antimicrobial resistance, climate change, and air pollution. The COVID-19 pandemic stressed their significance to global health and sustainable development. This analysis assessed the Arab world's contributions to these concepts applying performance analysis and visualization mapping, revealing that One Health outperformed planetary health in terms of productivity and number of contributed countries. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have emerged as leading contributors to One Health and planetary health research in the Arab world. Meanwhile, the United States and the United Kingdom, as non-Arab nations, play a pivotal role in fostering collaborative efforts with the region. The trajectory of One Health research has indeed shown remarkable exponential growth, especially since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, which is an indication of increasing relevance in the address of global health challenges. Conversely, planetary health presents an irregular growth pattern, with a strong point in the development of this area standing out in 2023. The unique set of social, cultural, governance, and agricultural attributes of the Arab region are joined by major environmental challenges that define the focus of both One Health and planetary health research efforts. Climate change, environmental contexts, and public health feature prominently in both One Health and planetary health, with One Health focusing mainly on infectious diseases and planetary health addressing the implications of climate change on human health. Advancing these concepts demands the establishment of a regional governing body to oversee an integrated One Health and planetary health strategy, foster regional research communities and alliances, secure political will and funding, and ensure the integration of these concepts into policy and academic frameworks.

Vegetation-climate feedbacks across scales

Vegetation is often viewed as a consequence of long-term climate conditions. However, vegetation itself plays a fundamental role in shaping Earth's climate by regulating the energy, water, and biogeochemical cycles across terrestrial landscapes. It exerts influence by consuming water resources through transpiration and interception, lowering atmospheric CO2 concentration, altering surface roughness, and controlling net radiation and its partitioning into sensible and latent heat fluxes. This influence propagates through the atmosphere, from microclimate scales to the entire atmospheric boundary layer, subsequently impacting large-scale circulation and the global transport of heat and moisture. Understanding the feedbacks between vegetation and atmosphere across multiple scales is crucial for predicting the influence of land use and land cover changes, and for accurately representing these processes in climate models. This review discusses the biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms through which vegetation modulates climate across spatial and temporal scales. Particularly, we evaluate the influence of vegetation on circulation patterns, precipitation, and temperature, considering both long-term trends and extreme events, such as droughts and heatwaves. Our goal is to highlight the state of science and review recent studies that may help advance our collective understanding of vegetation feedbacks and the role they play in climate.

Efficacy of fisheries management strategies in mitigating ecological, social, and economic risks of climate warming in China

Climate change has significantly altered fish population dynamics and marine ecosystems worldwide, resulting in multiple ecological, economic and social risks for sustainable fisheries. As a hotspot of global warming, China is anticipated to face with extensive climate-driven changes in marine fisheries and ecosystems, but a clear and adaptative management strategy has not been established. In this study, we assessed the climate adaptiveness of current fisheries management and alternative strategies with diverse management priorities. Dynamic ecosystem model, Ecosim, was used to quantify the effectiveness of these management options in mitigating ecological, social, and economic risks of climate change, as well as the potential trade-offs. Results showed that under the status quo fisheries management, climate warming would dramatically impair ecosystem structure and function, leading to declines in fishery yields, economic losses in the fishing industry, and potential food security crises. However, these climate-driven risks could be mitigated, or at least minimized, through improved fisheries management. The harvest control rule (HCR) strategy, which responds to climate-induced biomass variations, would be most effective in promoting sustainable fisheries production but limited in offsetting climate-driven economic losses; while multispecies strategies can, in a balanced way, help mitigate climate change impacts on sustainable fishery production, ecosystem health, seafood security, and economic profitability. Furthermore, their capability to offset climate-driven risks would be largely compromised with increasing greenhouse emissions, as no management strategy could sustain current ecological, economic and social levels of fisheries under the high-emission scenario. We emphasize the need to pursue a dual approach that incorporates both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and taking adaptive fisheries management strategies to realize fisheries potential and ensure ecological and socio-economic resilience. Although the dynamic model cannot incorporate climate-driven spatial variations, the insights and framework from this work can support the identification of climate-resilient management strategies over long-term and provide guidance on achieving climate-ready fisheries in China and other regions.

A framework of ecological security patterns in arid and semi-arid regions considering differences socioeconomic scenarios in ecological risk: Case of Loess Plateau, China

Understanding the establishment of ecological security patterns in arid and semi-arid regions is critical for global ecological risk prevention, control, and sustainable development. Nonetheless, there remains a relative deficiency in ecological risk assessment and construction of Ecological Security Patterns (ESP) in these areas, along with insufficient verification regarding the changes in ecological security patterns under diverse scenarios. This study employs Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to identify ecological sources and utilizes circuit theory alongside Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) to delineate ecological corridors. Additionally, the framework integrates the impacts of human activities on ecosystems and accounts for the disparities and uncertainties associated with future scenarios in constructing ESP. Results indicate discrepancies between the least risky pathway (SSP5-8.5) and the most stable pathway (SSP1-2.6) on the Loess Plateau, with varying manifestations of ecological risk. This study identified 28 large-scale ecological sources covering 65,642.745 km2, including 10 core sources exceeding 2000 km2; delineated 65 ecological corridors totaling 6695.061 km, encompassing 19 core corridors spanning 4091.452 km. The spatial overlap between ecological corridors and high-risk areas presents challenges to constructing ecological security patterns. In consideration of future uncertainties, we propose an ecological pattern optimization strategy incorporating "three barriers, five corridors, three protections, two zones, two belts, and multiple scattered points". This strategy emphasizes the potential of combining primary planting corridors, returning farmland to forests, and planning ecological buffer zones to address ecological risks. The study aims to enhance ecological security levels and readiness to confront ecological challenges in arid and semi-arid regions.

Behavioral and functional responses of different bird clades to offshore windfarms in yellow sea, China

Offshore windfarms (OWFs) constitute a rapidly expanding source of renewable energy that inevitably affects marine biodiversity, especially those built within critical areas for biodiversity conservation. To understand the potential effect of OWFs on bird communities, we systematically tracked bird communities and their behavior within OWFs near the Migratory Bird Sanctuaries along the Coast of the Yellow Sea in China from 2020 to 2022 using voyage investigations. The results indicated that bird diversity was greater within OWFs than in seawaters away from the OWFs. The composition of the bird community varied at different distance scales and the closer to the windfarm, the higher the number of birds from the Laridae and Anatidae. In addition, the flight heights of Laridae, Accipitridae, and Anatidae overlapped with the rotor-swept zones, and there were significant altitudinal variations in the OWFs and nearby waters. Based on 16 functional traits and the devised risk assessment function, we found that OWFs could have distinct impacts on different birds. Birds of the family Accipitridae, which have a larger body size, are likely to experience more stress from OWFs than other families. And, fish-eating birds, such as Laridae and Anatidae, have higher risk scores due to their closer proximity to the windfarm, medium body size and greater number of individuals. However, Passeriformes with smaller body size and fewer individuals have lower risk values. Our study revealed in detail the different strategies used by birds to cope with OWFs and provides a theoretical basis for rationalizing the conservation of bird diversity at these locations.

Meta-analyses reveal climate change impacts on an ecologically and economically significant oyster in Australia

Global oceans are warming and acidifying because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions that are anticipated to have cascading impacts on marine ecosystems and organisms, especially those essential for biodiversity and food security. Despite this concern, there remains some skepticism about the reproducibility and reliability of research done to predict future climate change impacts on marine organisms. Here, we present meta-analyses of over two decades of research on the climate change impacts on an ecologically and economically valuable Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata. We confirm with high confidence that ocean acidification (OA) has a significant impact on the size and mortality of offspring of S. glomerata, ocean warming (OW) impacts size, and transgenerational exposure of adults to OA has positive benefits for offspring. These meta-analyses reveal gaps in understanding of OW and transgenerational plasticity on an ecologically and economically significant oyster species to ensure sustainability of this iconic oyster in Australia.

Anthropogenic Drivers of Small-Island Effects in Urban Remnant Woody Plants

The positive relationship between species richness and area is a fundamental principle in ecology. However, this pattern deviates on small islands, where species richness either changes independently of area or increases at a slower rate-a phenomenon known as the Small-Island Effect (SIE). While the SIE has been well documented in natural ecosystem, its presence in highly fragmented and disturbed urban ecosystem remains unexplored, posing challenges for urban vegetation conservation. Urban remnant vegetation, isolated by surrounding infrastructures, preserves intact zonal vegetation characteristics, serves as a benchmark for restoring near-natural habitats and offers ideal conditions to test the existence of the SIE in urban area landscapes. In this study, we surveyed 17 remnant vegetation patches in Qingdao City, China. A total of 331 plants attributed to 255 genera in 81 families have been recorded. Firstly, by using six species-area relationship regression models testing the SIE for remnant vegetation with different plant life forms, we found the SIE in only woody plants, with the land surface area threshold ranging from 6.38 ha (tree) to 11.91 ha (shrub). Our finding revealed that the drivers of the SIE in shrubs were landscape shape index, perimeter-area ratio, and the proportion of sealed surfaces within the patch. For trees, the SIE was influenced by the distance to the source of species, GDP, night light intensity, and perimeter-area ratio. This finding justifies that conservation in urban planning, construction, and development should focus not only on protecting large areas but also on maintaining and promoting diverse habitats within these areas. At the same time, reducing anthropogenic disturbance and enhancing the connectivity of green spaces are important for the persistence of metacommunities and can contribute to the local species pool, thus potentially improving the ecological resilience of urban environments.

Climate change drives fish communities: Changing multiple facets of fish biodiversity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Global marine biodiversity is experiencing significant alterations due to climate change. Incorporating phylogenetic and functional diversity may provide novel insights into these impacts. This study used an ensemble model approach (random forest and boosted regression tree), to predict the habitat distribution of 47 fish species in the Northwestern Pacific under contemporary (2000-2014) and future scenarios (2040-2050, 2090-2100). We first examined the relationship between eleven functional traits and habitat changes, predicting the spatial distribution of functional traits within fish communities. A significant correlation was observed between temperature preference and habitat changes, highlighting the vulnerability of cold-water species and potential advantages for warm-water species in the future. Moreover, fish communities exhibited a spatial gradient distribution with southern regions characterized by shorter-lived and earlier maturity, contrasting with longer-lived and later maturity species in the north. Secondly, to assess the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity, we explored the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity under contemporary and future scenarios, revealing higher indices in the East China Sea (ECS) and the coastal sea of Japan, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a contemporary biodiversity hotspot. In future scenarios, the three biodiversity indices would decline in the Yellow Sea and ECS, but increase in the sea beyond the continental shelf, coastal sea of Hokkaido, and Sea of Okhotsk. Lastly, we explored processes and mechanisms in the change of community composition. By quantifying β-diversity, we identified species loss (nestedness) as the primary driver of fish community change by 2040-2050, with species replacement (turnover) predicted to become dominant in the far future. Our results explore the potential changes in multiple facets of fish biodiversity, providing crucial insights for policymakers aiming to protect fish resources and biodiversity.

How to make land use policy decisions: Integrating science and economics to deliver connected climate, biodiversity, and food objectives

Land use change is crucial to addressing the existential threats of climate change and biodiversity loss while enhancing food security [M. Zurek et al., Science 376, 1416-1421 (2022)]. The interconnected and spatially varying nature of the impacts of land use change means that these challenges must be addressed simultaneously [H.-O. Pörtner et al., Science 380, eabl4881 (2023)]. However, governments commonly focus on single issues, incentivizing land use change via "Flat-Rate" subsidies offering constant per hectare payments, uptake of which is determined by the economic circumstances of landowners rather than the integrated environmental outcomes that will be delivered [G. Q. Bull et al., Forest Policy Econ. 9, 13-31 (2006)]. Here, we compare Flat-Rate subsidies to two alternatives: "Land Use Scenario" allocation of subsidies through consultation across stakeholders and interested parties; and a "Natural Capital" approach which targets subsidies according to expected ecosystem service response. This comparison is achieved by developing a comprehensive decision support system, integrating new and existing natural, physical, and economic science models to quantify environmental, agricultural, and economic outcomes. Applying this system to the United Kingdom's net zero commitment to increase carbon storage via afforestation, we show that the three approaches result in significantly different outcomes in terms of where planting occurs, their environmental consequences, and economic costs and benefits. The Flat-Rate approach actually increases net carbon emissions while Land Use Scenario allocation yields poor economic outcomes. The Natural Capital targeted approach outperforms both alternatives, providing the highest possible social values while satisfying net zero commitments.

The recent advances of MnFe2O4-based nanoparticles in environmental application: A review

The manganese ferrite (MnFe2O4)-based nanoparticles showed a substantial potential to remediate the various pollutants in environmental application due to low cost, simple magnetic separation and high removal capacity. Herein, the functionalization of various MnFe2O4-based nanoparticles was briefly summarized; Then the recent advances concerning the removal of pollutants (i.e., organics, heavy metals and antibacterial activity) on different MnFe2O4-based nanoparticles were reviewed in details. The reactivity of MnFe2O4-based nanoparticles was significantly influenced by environmental factors. It is demonstrated that interaction mechanism of various pollutants on magnetic MnFe2O4-based nanoparticles included degradation, adsorption, coordination, redox and precipitation. Finally, the current problems and future perspective of MnFe2O4-based nanoparticles were proposed. The highlight of this review is to compare the removal performance of MnFe2O4-based nanoparticles with the different hybrids. This review is crucial for the application of MnFe2O4-based nanoparticles in the environmental remediation.

Remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) affects microbial community diversity in ecosystems of different qualities

Soil microorganisms are key to ecological environment stability, but climate change and human activities exacerbate ecological environment changes. Therefore, assessment of ecological environment quality impacts on microbial diversity is needed. The Tarim River is the largest inland river in China and plays a crucial role in supporting regional biodiversity, maintaining ecological balance, and preventing desertification. In this study, we used the Remote Sensing-based Ecological Index (RSEI) to assess the ecological quality of habitats in the Tarim River Basin and explore the effects of habitat quality (extreme, semi-extreme, and general) on the structural diversity of microbial (bacterial and fungal) communities, biogeographic patterns, co-occurrence networks, and community assembly processes. Study results show that soil physicochemical characteristics varied significantly with habitat quality; highly resilient microorganisms are more abundant in habitats with low ecological quality. RSEI affects changes in microbial communities, and the positive correlation ratio of the network is inversely proportional to RSEI. The interspecific relationships of microbial communities in the Tarim River Basin are dominated by positive correlations, and community assembly is strongly influenced by stochastic processes. RSEI directly affects soil microbial diversity, with its contribution to both bacterial and fungal diversity being 0.27. Total nitrogen (TN) also directly affects microbial diversity, with effects of 0.11 on bacteria and 0.07 on fungi, respectively. This study provides scientific evidence and technical support for understanding microbial diversity in environments and for the development of regional sustainable development policies.

Modeling fisheries and carbon sequestration ecosystem services under deep uncertainty in the ocean twilight zone

Mesopelagic fishes are a vital component of the biological carbon pump and are, to date, largely unexploited. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in harvesting the mesopelagic zone to produce fish feed for aquaculture. However, great uncertainties exist in how the mesopelagic zone interacts with the climate and food webs, presenting a dilemma for policy. Here, we investigate the consequences of potential policies relating to mesopelagic harvest quotas with a dynamic social-ecological modeling approach, combining system dynamics and global sensitivity analyses informed by participatory modeling. Our analyses reveal that, in simulations of mesopelagic fishing scenarios, uncertainties about mesopelagic fish population dynamics have the most pronounced influence on potential outcomes. The analysis also shows that prioritizing the development of the fishing industry over environmental protection would lead to a significantly higher social cost of climate change to society. Given the large uncertainties and the potential large impacts on oceanic carbon sequestration, a precautionary approach to developing mesopelagic fisheries is warranted.

Coupled relationships between landscape pattern and ecosystem health in response to urbanization

Rapid urbanization has highlighted ecological problems in the metropolitan area, with increasing landscape fragmentation and severe threats to ecosystem health (EH). Studying the spatio-temporal coupled relationship between landscape pattern and EH and its response to urbanization in the Fuzhou metropolitan area (FMA) can provide scientific reference for its long-term development planning. We examined the coupled relationship between landscape pattern and EH and its driving mechanism in the FMA at grid and township scales to address the gap. The results show that landscape heterogeneity, diversity, and dispersion are gradually increasing, and EH is rising progressively in the FMA from 2000 to 2020. The spatial distribution of landscape pattern indices and EH indicators showed a "high in the south and low in the north" trend. During the study period, the coupled relationship between landscape patterns and EH was increasingly powerful but with remarkable spatial heterogeneity. The study also found an inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization and coupled relationships. Ecological landscapes' heterogeneity, diversity, and connectivity in low-urbanization areas are conducive to EH. The opposite is true for high-urbanization areas. This study provides a valuable reference for optimizing landscape planning and ecological management in metropolitan areas.

Foods of the Future: Challenges, Opportunities, Trends, and Expectations

Creating propositions for the near and distant future requires a design to catch the tide of the times and move with or against trends. In addition, appropriate, adaptable, flexible, and transformational projects are needed in light of changes in science, technology, social, economic, political, and demographic fields over time. Humanity is facing a period in which science and developing technologies will be even more important in solving food safety, health, and environmental problems. Adapting to and mitigating climate change; reducing pollution, waste, and biodiversity loss; and feeding a growing global population with safe food are key challenges facing the agri-food industry and the food supply chain, requiring systemic transformation in agricultural systems and sustainable future agri-food. The aim of this review is to compile scientific evidence and data, define, and create strategies for the future in terms of food security, safety, and sufficiency; future sustainable foods and alternative protein sources; factors affecting food and nutrition security and agriculture; and promising food systems such as functional foods, novel foods, synthetic biology, and 3D food printing. In this review, the safety, conservation, nutritional, sensory, welfare, and potential challenges and limitations of food systems and the opportunities to overcome them on the basis of new approaches, innovative interpretations, future possibilities, and technologies are discussed. Additionally, this review also offers suggestions for future research and food trends in light of future perspectives. This article focuses on future sustainable foods, alternative protein sources, and novel efficient food systems, highlights scientific and technological advances and new research directions, and provides a significant perspective on sustainability.

Bridging disciplines-key to success when implementing planetary health in medical training curricula

Planetary health is being or should be added to medical training curricula in accordance with association consensus. Several articles published in recent years have addressed concern on the implementation, and the challenges that can occur if not addressed properly. This scoping narrative literature review focuses on planetary health as a concept, as well as challenges and suggested solutions to address these challenges. Planetary health is an important concept and needs to be addressed in all medical training. We found that one main challenge is implementation without ensuring the right competences and resources. Medically trained teachers set out to understand and teach complex natural and social systems. At some institutions the time allocated to teach planetary health is limited or non-existent. Case studies and student led teaching are solutions suggested, while other argue that true interdisciplinarity by inviting experts are more in line with what we expect from other subjects. In conclusion, the roots of planetary health, the enormous health risks at stake and nature of the subject requires medical training to adopt a true inter/trans-disciplinary approach to succeed. It might not be expected for all students to become planetary health experts, but all need a general understanding of the most important aspects and values.

When concern is not enough: Overcoming the climate awareness-action gap

Climate concern is on the rise in many countries and recent research finds that lifestyle- and behaviour-change could advance climate action; yet, individuals struggle to move their climate concern into action. This is known as the 'awareness-action inconsistency,' 'psychological climate paradox,' or 'values-action gap.' While this gap has been extensively studied, climate action implementation and policy-design seldom sufficiently apply that body of knowledge in practice. This Perspective presents a comprehensive heuristic to account for how individuals bring climate change into their awareness (climate action-logics), how they keep climate change out of their awareness (climate shadow), how social narratives contribute to shaping choices (climate discourses), and how systems and structures influence and constrain agency (climate-action systems). The heuristic is illustrated with an example of 15-Minute Cities in Canada. Understanding the multifaceted dilemma that weighs on people's sense-making and behaviours may help policy-makers and practitioners to ameliorate the climate awareness-action gap.

Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies

Forests provide important ecosystem services (ESs), including climate change mitigation, local climate regulation, habitat for biodiversity, wood and non-wood products, energy, and recreation. Simultaneously, forests are increasingly affected by climate change and need to be adapted to future environmental conditions. Current legislation, including the European Union (EU) Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and national laws, aims to protect forest landscapes, enhance ESs, adapt forests to climate change, and leverage forest products for climate change mitigation and the bioeconomy. However, reconciling all these competing demands poses a tremendous task for policymakers, forest managers, conservation agencies, and other stakeholders, especially given the uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. Here, we used process-based ecosystem modeling and robust multi-criteria optimization to develop forest management portfolios that provide multiple ESs across a wide range of climate scenarios. We included constraints to strictly protect 10% of Europe's land area and to provide stable harvest levels under every climate scenario. The optimization showed only limited options to improve ES provision within these constraints. Consequently, management portfolios suffered from low diversity, which contradicts the goal of multi-functionality and exposes regions to significant risk due to a lack of risk diversification. Additionally, certain regions, especially those in the north, would need to prioritize timber provision to compensate for reduced harvests elsewhere. This conflicts with EU LULUCF targets for increased forest carbon sinks in all member states and prevents an equal distribution of strictly protected areas, introducing a bias as to which forest ecosystems are more protected than others. Thus, coordinated strategies at the European level are imperative to address these challenges effectively. We suggest that the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and targets for forest carbon sinks require complementary measures to alleviate the conflicting demands on forests.

Variability in zoobenthic blue carbon storage across a southern polar gradient

The seabed of the Antarctic continental shelf hosts most of Antarctica's known species, including taxa considered indicative of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). Nonetheless, the potential impact of climatic and environmental change, including marine icescape transition, on Antarctic shelf zoobenthos, and their blue carbon-associated function, is still poorly characterised. To help narrow knowledge gaps, four continental shelf study areas, spanning a southern polar gradient, were investigated for zoobenthic (principally epi-faunal) carbon storage (a component of blue carbon), and potential environmental influences, employing a functional group approach. Zoobenthic carbon storage was highest at the two southernmost study areas (with a mean estimate of 41.6 versus 7.2 g C m-2) and, at each study area, increased with morphotaxa richness, overall faunal density, and VME indicator density. Functional group mean carbon content varied with study area, as did each group's percentage contribution to carbon storage and faunal density. Of the environmental variables explored, sea-ice cover and primary production, both likely to be strongly impacted by climate change, featured in variable subsets most highly correlating with assemblage and carbon storage (by functional groups) structures. The study findings can underpin biodiversity- and climate-considerate marine spatial planning and conservation measures in the Southern Ocean.

Plant diversity decreases greenhouse gas emissions by increasing soil and plant carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems

The decline in global plant diversity has raised concerns about its implications for carbon fixation and global greenhouse gas emissions (GGE), including carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis of 2103 paired observations, examining GGE, soil organic carbon (SOC) and plant carbon in plant mixtures and monocultures. Our findings indicate that plant mixtures decrease soil N2O emissions by 21.4% compared to monocultures. No significant differences occurred between mixtures and monocultures for soil CO2 emissions, CH4 emissions or CH4 uptake. Plant mixtures exhibit higher SOC and plant carbon storage than monocultures. After 10 years of vegetation development, a 40% reduction in species richness decreases SOC content and plant carbon storage by 12.3% and 58.7% respectively. These findings offer insights into the intricate connections between plant diversity, soil and plant carbon storage and GGE-a critical but previously unexamined aspect of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning.

Incorporating diverse values of nature in decision-making-theory and practice

Values play a significant role in decision-making, especially regarding nature. Decisions impact people and nature in complex ways and understanding which values are prioritised, and which are left out is an important task for improving the equity and effectiveness of decision-making. Based on work done for the IPBES Values Assessment, this paper develops a framework to support analyses of how decision-making influences nature as well as whose values get prioritised. The framework is used to analyse key areas of environmental policy: a) the present model for nature protection in market economies, b) the role of valuation in bringing nature values into decisions, and c) values embedded in environmental policy instruments, exemplified by protected areas for nature conservation and payments for ecosystem services. The analyses show that environmental policies have been established as mere additions to decision-making structures that foster economic expansion, which undermines a wide range of nature's values. Moreover, environmental policies themselves are also focused on a limited set of nature's diverse values. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

What is the role of scientists in meeting the environmental challenges of the twenty-first century?

We live at a time of rapid and accelerating biodiversity loss and climate change that pose an existential risk to the environment, humanity, and social justice and stability. Governmental responses are seen by many citizens, including scientists, as inadequate, leading to an increase in civil protests and activism by those calling for urgent action to effect change. Here we consider the role(s) of scientists in responding to those challenges and engaging with policy given that when a scientist moves into political advocacy, reflecting their values and preferences, their objectivity and the value of scientific opinion may be seen as compromised. We then consider whether institutional setting and career stage may affect decisions to engage with policy or activism. Against this backcloth, we ask whether it is sufficient for scientists to act as impartial 'brokers' in societal decisions, arguing they should consider acting as 'Honest Advocates' in policy formation in some circumstances. Such advocacy can contribute to decision-making in a purposeful, well-informed manner, doing societal good without damaging the reputation of science. We encourage scientists to each reflect on their multiple roles in addressing the environmental challenges of our time.

An assessment of the state of conservation planning in Europe

Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Impacts of commodity prices and governance on the expansion of tropical agricultural frontiers

Deforestation in the tropics remains a significant global challenge linked to carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Agriculture, forestry, wildfires, and urbanization have been repeatedly identified as main drivers of tropical deforestation. Understanding the underlying mechanisms behind these direct causes is crucial to navigate the multiple tradeoffs between competing forest uses, such as food and biomass production (SDG 2), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). This paper develops and implements a global-scale empirical approach to quantify two key factors affecting land use decisions at tropical forest frontiers: agricultural commodity prices and national governance. It relies on data covering the period 2004-2015 from multiple public sources, aggregated to countries and agro-ecological zones. Our analysis confirms the persistent influence of commodity prices on agricultural land expansion, especially in forest-abundant regions. Economic and environmental governance quality co-determines processes of expansion and contraction of agricultural land in the tropics, yet at much smaller magnitudes than other drivers. We derive land supply elasticities for direct use in standard economic impact assessment models and demonstrate that our results make a difference in a Computable General Equilibrium framework.

Large biomass reduction effect on the relative role of climate, fishing, and recruitment on fish population dynamics

Many species around the world have collapsed, yet only some have recovered. A key question is what happens to populations post collapse. Traditionally, marine fish collapses are linked to overfishing, poor climate, and recruitment. We test whether the effect on biomass change from these drivers remains the same after a collapse. We used a regression model to analyse the effect of harvesting, recruitment, and climate variability on biomass change before and after a collapse across 54 marine fish populations around the world. The most salient result was the change in fishing effect that became weaker after a collapse. The change in sea temperature and recruitment effects were more variable across systems. The strongest changes were in the pelagic habitats. The resultant change in the sensitivity to external drivers indicates that whilst biomass may be rebuilt, the responses to variables known to affect stocks may have changed after a collapse. Our results show that a general model applied to many stocks provides useful insights, but that not all stocks respond similarly to a collapse calling for stock-specific models. Stocks respond to environmental drivers differently after a collapse, so caution is needed when using pre-collapse knowledge to advise on population dynamics and management.

Capacity of the U.S. federal system for cultural heritage to meet challenges of climate change

The U.S. federal government is unbalanced in its capacity to recognize, manage, and engage cultural heritage as part of its response to climate change. Legislation from the 1906 Antiquities Act to Executive Order (EO) 13990 signed in 2021 has set an overarching approach in which heritage is understood to be primarily tangible places and things that should be conserved, foremost through monument and park boundaries and significance designations. Such conservation, however, does not protect heritage from impacts of climate change and how to manage these components of heritage is nearly invisible in recent climate-focused publications of the two agencies assigned by legislation to serve as leads for cultural heritage in the U.S. government. Yet further, the long-standing tangible approach to heritage does not incorporate emerging understandings of its intangible components and the diverse connections of all forms of heritage to place, meaning, identity, and global change goals of sustainability and equity. In contrast, analysis of 27 federal agency climate adaptation plans prepared in response to 2021 EO 14008 shows that multiple agencies not assigned lead roles for heritage recognize a range of responsibilities that include heritage as part of climate adaptation, mitigation, equity, and coordination with Indigenous communities. This paper explores U.S. heritage legislative history, the definition it helped create for heritage, more recent understandings of heritage, and relationships of these to climate change and how these are represented in climate work and plans across U.S. federal agencies. On these bases, recommendations are provided for research and policy steps.

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

Effects of grazing exclusion on soil microbial diversity and its functionality in grasslands: a meta-analysis

Grazing exclusion (GE) is considered an effective strategy for restoring the degradation of overgrazed grasslands on the global scale. Soil microbial diversity plays a crucial role in supporting multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality) in grassland ecosystems. However, the impact of grazing exclusion on soil microbial diversity remains uncertain. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis using a dataset comprising 246 paired observations from 46 peer-reviewed papers to estimate how GE affects microbial diversity and how these effects vary with climatic regions, grassland types, and GE duration ranging from 1 to 64 years. Meanwhile, we explored the relationship between microbial diversity and its functionality under grazing exclusion. Overall, grazing exclusion significantly increased microbial Shannon (1.9%) and microbial richness (4.9%) compared to grazing group. For microbial groups, GE significantly increased fungal richness (8.6%) and bacterial richness (5.3%), but decreased specific microbial richness (-11.9%). The responses of microbial Shannon to GE varied among climatic regions, grassland types, and GE duration. Specifically, GE increased microbial diversity in in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid regions, but decreased it in humid regions. Moreover, GE significantly increased microbial Shannon in semidesert grasslands (5.9%) and alpine grasslands (3.0%), but not in temperate grasslands. Long-term (>20 year) GE had greater effects on microbial diversity (8.0% for Shannon and 6.7% for richness) compared to short-term (<10 year) GE (-0.8% and 2.4%). Furthermore, grazing exclusion significantly increased multifunctionality, and both microbial and plant Shannon positively correlated with multifunctionality. Overall, our findings emphasize the importance of considering climate, GE duration, and grassland type for biodiversity conservation and sustainable grassland ecosystem functions.

Incorporating network topology and ecosystem services into the optimization of ecological network: A case study of the Yellow River Basin

Human activity-induced landscape fragmentation seriously affects regional connectivity and biodiversity and hinders human well-being and sustainable development. These effects can be mitigated by the construction of ecological networks (ENs), but building extensive ENs requires cross-regional planning and coordination. Since ecosystems in different regions provide varying benefits to humans, optimizing ENs based on the quality of ecosystem services (ESs) is an effective way to rapidly improve regional landscape connectivity. In this study, we constructed an EN in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) according to landscape ecology and complex network theory, examined the network topology, measured three ESs using the InVEST model, and optimized the EN based on the coupling of EN topology and ES quality. In the YRB, the biodiversity index and carbon storage capacity were relatively higher and invariable. However, the wind-breaking and sand-fixing index was poorer, but it increased by 146 % during the study period. The number of ecological patches was roughly 48, accounting for about 40 % of the YRB region. From 1995 to 2020, the average ecological resistance decreased by 29 %, and the average number of corridors was 99, but the average corridor length first increased and then decreased. The number and area of ecological pinch points and barriers changed significantly. The EN topology strongly correlated with biodiversity and wind-breaking and sand-fixing, but not with carbon storage. In the face of random attacks, the optimized EN demonstrated significantly greater connectivity robustness. Under deliberate attacks, it exhibited better resilience and buffering power when the percentage of attacking nodes is in the 30 %-80 % range. For the ecological patches within a certain range of the attacking node, appropriate development and planning can be carried out in the future, while for the patches outside the range, strict ecological protection measures need to be implemented. This study provides theoretical references for improving EN planning efficiency and promoting synergistic cooperation in the YRB.

Impacts of climate change on water quality, benthic mussels, and suspended mussel culture in a shallow, eutrophic estuary

Climate change is a global problem that causes severe local changes to marine biota, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services. The Limfjorden is a shallow, eutrophic estuary influenced by episodic summer hypoxia with an important mussel fishery and suspended mussel culture industry. Three future climate change scenarios ranging from low greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-2.6), to intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high emissions (SSP5-8.5) were combined with nutrient load reductions according to the National Water Plans to investigate potential impacts on natural benthic mussel populations and suspended mussel culture for the two periods 2051-2060 and 2090-2099, relative to a reference period from 2009 to 2018. The FlexSem model combined 3D hydrodynamics with a pelagic biogeochemical model, a sediment-benthos model, and a dynamic energy budget - farm scale model for mussel culture. Model results showed that the Limfjorden was sensitive to climate change impacts with the strongest responses of physics and water quality in the worst case SSP5-8.5 scenario with no nutrient reductions. In the two low emissions scenarios, expected improvements of bottom oxygen and Chlorophyll a concentrations due to reduced nutrient loads were counteracted by climate change impacts on water physics (warming, freshening, stronger stratification). Hence, higher nutrient reductions in the Water Plans would be needed to reach a good ecological status under the influence of climate change. Suspended mussel culture was intensified in all scenarios showing a high potential harvest, whereas the benthic mussels suffered from reduced food supply and hypoxia. Provided the environmental changes and trends in social demands, in the future, it is likely that suspended mussel cultivation will become the primary source of mussels for the industry. Model scenarios can be used to inform managers, mussel farmers, fishermen, and the local population on potential future changes in bivalve harvesting and ecosystem health, and to find solutions to mitigate climate change impacts.

Sustainability limits needed for CO2 removal

The true climate mitigation challenge is revealed by considering sustainability impacts.

Biodiversity burdens in Spanish conventional and low-impact single-family homes

Biodiversity loss caused by housing is not a well-defined sector of environmental impact. This research quantifies effects on biodiversity of an average Spanish Single-Family House (SFH) with 180 m2 of built surface. The current Spanish SFH stock GWP amounts to 1.16 Gt CO2eq in a 50-year life cycle, 40 % of which is embodied in the building materials and the 60 % are emissions due to the use of the building. This stock also impacts with 10.2 Gt 1,4-DCB the land, water and human health. SFHs also drive 6052 species extinct in a 50 year life cycle, and account for 3.03 M years of life lost due to premature death or lived with a disability. Divided by the 16 M people living in Spanish SFHs, each one lost 0.19 years of their lives (68.1 days) due to their home's impacts on human health. The article compares a reference conventional building against three low-impact cases, to understand how different building techniques and materials influence environmental outcomes that keep biodiversity loss the lowest possible. Scenarios include a standard brick and concrete house as Scenario 0 (SC0, Base), a timber Passivhaus as Scenario 1 (SC1), a straw-bale house with renewable energies as Scenario 2 (SC2), and an earth bioclimatic house as Scenario 3 (SC3). An initial Global Warming Potential (GWP) analysis was performed to relate previous building Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies with biodiversity metrics. Three main biodiversity metrics; ecotoxicity (as midpoint indicator), biodiversity loss and damage to human health (both as endpoint indicators) have been considered. Compared to SC0 with 1292 kgCO2-eq·m-2 (516 embodied) of GWP, we found that SC1 emitted -47.0 % of that, SC2-41.4 % and SC3-80.9 %. Concerning ecotoxicity, where SC0 has 11,399 kg 1,4 DCB, the results are -27.9 % in SC1, -19.2 % in SC2, and -45.6 % in SC3. Regarding biodiversity loss, where SC0 has 7.54 E-06 species.yr·m-2, the impacts are -30.9 % in SC1, -32.6 % in SC2, and -58.6 % in SC3. Human health damage in SC0 being 3.37 E-03 DALY, has been reduced in the timber home (SC1) is -44.2 %, of the Straw SFH (SC2) -39.2 %, and of the earth house (SC3) -67.1 %. This article shows that with current existing technological solutions GWP could be reduced in -80.9 %, ecotoxicity in -45.6 %, biodiversity loss in -58.6 % and human health in -67.1 %. Spanish Single-Family Houses built in timber, earth or straw-bale are real alternatives to current cement traditional building.

Social-ecological vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries to climate change

Climate change is a new disrupter to global fisheries systems and their governance frameworks. It poses a pressing management challenge, particularly in China, which is renowned as the world's largest fishing country and seafood producer. As climate change continues to intensify in the region and climate awareness grows within the country's national policy, the need to understand China's fisheries' resilience to the escalating climate crisis becomes paramount. In this study, we conduct an interdisciplinary analysis to assess the vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries in response to climate change. This study employs a spatially explicit, indicator-based approach with a coupled social-ecological framework, focusing on 67 species and 11 coastal regions. By integrating diverse sets of climatic, ecological, economic, societal, and governance indicators and information, we elucidate the factors that could hinder climate adaptation, including a limited understanding of fish early life stages, uncertainty in seafood production, unequal allocation and accessibility of resources, and inadequate consideration of inclusive governance and adaptive management. Our results show that species, which have managed to survive the stress of overfishing, demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt to climate change. However, collapsing stocks such as large yellow croaker face a high risk due to the synergistic effects of inherent biological traits and external management interventions. We emphasize the imperative to build institutional, scientific, and social capacity to support fisheries adaptation. The scientific insights provided by this study can inform fisheries management decisions and promote the operationalization of climate-resilient fisheries in China and other regions.

Operationalizing blue carbon principles in France: Methodological developments for Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows and institutionalization

Conservation of ecosystems is an important tool for climate change mitigation. Seagrasses, mangroves, saltmarshes and other marine ecosystems have particularly high capacities to sequester and store organic carbon (blue carbon), and are being impacted by human activities. Calls have been made to mainstream blue carbon into policies, including carbon markets. Building on the scientific literature and the French voluntary carbon standard, the 'Label Bas-Carbone', we develop the first method for the conservation of Posidonia oceanica seagrasses using carbon finance. This methodology assesses the emission reduction potential of projects that reduce physical impacts from boating and anchoring. We show how this methodology was institutionalized thanks to a tiered approach on key parameters including carbon stocks, degradation rates, and decomposition rates. We discuss future needs regarding (i) how to strengthen the robustness of the method, and (ii) the expansion of the method to restoration of seagrasses and to other blue carbon ecosystems.

Resilience against the impacts of climate change in an ecologically and economically significant native oyster

Climate change is acidifying and warming our oceans, at an unprecedented rate posing a challenge for marine invertebrates vital across the globe for ecological services and food security. Here we show it is possible for resilience to climate change in an ecologically and economically significant oyster without detrimental effects to the energy budget. We exposed 24 pair-mated genetically distinct families of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata to ocean acidification and warming for 4w and measured their resilience. Resilience was identified as the capacity to defend their acid-base balance without a loss of energy available for Scope for Growth (SFG). Of the 24 families, 13 were better able to defend their acid-base balance while eight had no loss of energy availability with a positive SFG. This study has found oyster families with reslience against climate change without a loss of SFG, is an essential mitigation strategy, in a critical mollusc.