Economic evaluation of a community-based diagnostic pathway to stratify adults for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a Markov model informed by a feasibility study

Increasing engagement with liver disease management across the UK: a follow-up cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Liver disease is an increasing cause of premature mortality. Early detection of liver disease in primary care gives opportunity to intervene and change outcomes. Engagement in liver disease care by NHS bodies responsible for primary care pathway development could drive improvements. The formation of integrated care systems (ICS) in England provides an opportunity to reassess engagement with liver disease nationally.

AIM

To update the level of engagement with community chronic liver disease management among ICSs and health authorities across the UK.

DESIGN & SETTING

A cross-sectional follow-up survey to ICS and UK health boards.

METHOD

Questions used for a previous survey in 2020 were adapted and sent electronically to NHS bodies responsible for health care across the UK, using a freedom of information request. Quantitative analysis was undertaken using Microsoft Excel.

RESULTS

There were 67 responses from 68 possible ICS and health board areas, representing 99% UK coverage. Twenty-seven per cent had a named individual responsible for liver disease. Monitoring of local liver disease health statistics happened in 34% of all UK areas. Comprehensive care pathways were available in n = 24/67 (36%) of areas, an increase from 26% in the 2020 survey. Areas with no liver pathways in place fell from 58% to 36% between the two surveys. Regional variations persist, with Wales and Scotland moving towards comprehensive coverage. Almost double the number of areas were making use of transient elastography within community pathways of care, up from 25% to 46%.

CONCLUSION

The results of this re-survey highlight improvements, but emphasise the need to build on regional success to further reduce inequality in care commissioning.

Screening to identify people with type 2 diabetes at risk of liver cancer in primary care: a randomised controlled trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is expected to become the third most common cause of cancer death worldwide by 2030. The increase in HCC is in large part due to the rising prevalence of risk factors such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Up to 1 in 20 people living with T2DM have liver cirrhosis, and they have a 1% to 2% incidence of HCC per year. Patients with cirrhosis enter surveillance for HCC to identify early-stage, curable tumours. A diagnosis of T2DM does not mandate testing to identify patients with cirrhosis, with testing restricted to those with additional risks. There has never been a trial and nested cost-effectiveness evaluation comparing screening all patients with T2DM for cirrhosis against usual care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study will use a multi-centre, unblinded individual randomised controlled trial design. The aim will be to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening all adults with T2DM to identify those at high risk of HCC. The recruitment strategy has been supported by patient and public involvement (PPI). Participants will be identified via an automated search of primary care records and invited to participate via text. 320 participants will be randomised for screening. The screening will include measurement of bio-markers for liver fibrosis (ELF and Fib-4) and vibration-controlled transient elastography. Another 320 participants will be randomised to standard care. Demographic and medical history data will be collected at baseline from all participants. Outcome data will be collected remotely from healthcare records. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants in each arm who are referred to HCC surveillance following testing for liver disease within 12 months of randomisation. The results will be used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of screening via a Markov model.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The results of this study will be presented directly to National Health Service England. Additional dissemination via conference proceedings and publication will be supported by our PPI team. Ethical approval was granted by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Service on 2 August 2023, REC reference 23/WS/0102.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN17017677.

Moving diagnosis of liver fibrosis into the community

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a leading cause of death worldwide, with alcohol consumption and metabolic risk factors accounting for the majority of cases of CLD in many developed countries. Currently, specific strategies for the early diagnosis of CLD are lacking and consequently most cases are diagnosed at an advanced stage, which is associated with negative consequences for disease management and prognosis. Screening for CLD is based on either detection of chronic viral hepatitis B and C, or detection of liver fibrosis in patients with steatotic liver disease related to alcohol or metabolic dysfunction. Non-invasive tools, including serological and imaging-based tests, can be used to detect liver fibrosis. Clinical practice guidelines recommend screening for liver fibrosis using algorithms that combine different non-invasive tests, with widely available but low accuracy tests, such as FIB-4, recommended as a first screening step in the primary care setting, and other tests with lower availability but higher accuracy, such as transient elastography or the enhanced liver fibrosis test, recommended as a second step. There are different pathways for early detection of patients with CLD from primary to specialised care, with primary care providers being key for early detection, management and referral of patients. In addition, interventions targeting metabolic risk factors and alcohol consumption should be carried out in collaboration between specialists and primary care. In this review, we describe liver fibrosis from the community perspective, highlighting gaps in knowledge on how to define the optimal combination of tests, target population, the ideal pathway of care for CLD, and how to increase implementation of programmes for early diagnosis of liver diseases in clinical practice.

Using Panel Management to Identify Adult Patients With High-Risk Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease/Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis Fibrosis in a Primary Care Clinic: A Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

As rates of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) rise, national organizations have released new guidance for primary care-driven detection of patients with advanced fibrosis who are most likely to have clinically relevant morbidity. Yet time constraints, workflow, and practitioner awareness limit integration of risk identification into clinical care.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

At the authors' primary care clinic, they implemented a panel management strategy that utilized the electronic health record to identify patients older than 35 years of age at risk for MASLD fibrosis with abnormal Fibrosis-4 (Fib-4) scores. Using a proactive model, these patients were offered elastography-based screening and follow-up appointments focused on metabolic health, with referrals to subspecialty care when indicated.

RESULTS

Of 855 patients older than 35 years of age, 384 were identified as having risk factors for MASLD/MASH. Of these, 53 had abnormal Fib-4 scores with no prior work-up; 29 patients consented to a shear wave elastography; 16 underwent shear wave elastography; and 6 had moderate or high results concerning for at-risk fibrosis. Twenty patients attended MASLD-focused appointments. Reluctance to pursue testing was driven by skepticism surrounding preventative medicine, perceived cost, and desire to focus on other medical problems, some of which were life-limiting.

CONCLUSION

Panel management represents a scalable strategy to quickly identify patients in primary care most likely to experience complications from MASLD/MASH and provides a targeted intervention to direct further management. Limitations include access to care, medical complexity, and patient acceptance.

Derivation and validation of the BIMAST score for predicting the presence of fibrosis due to Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease among diabetic patients in the community

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Current screening pathways, developed from tertiary care cohorts, underestimate the presence of Metabolic-dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the community. We developed, validated, and assessed cost-effectiveness of a new score for screening the presence of fibrosis due to MASLD in primary care.

METHODS

Consecutive T2DM patients underwent screening for liver diseases with transient elastography (TE). Based on predictors of significant/advanced fibrosis, we generated the BIMAST score (based on aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and body mass index (BMI)) and validated it internally and externally (Royal Free Hospital, London and Palermo Hospital). For cost-effectiveness analysis, 6 screening strategies were compared against standard of care: BIMAST score, ultrasound plus abnormal liver function tests, FIB-4, NAFLD fibrosis score, ELF and transient elastography (TE). A Markov model was built based on fibrosis status. Cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were estimated over a lifetime.

RESULTS

Among 300 patients enrolled, 64% (186) had MASLD and 10% (28) other causes of liver disease. In the whole population, patients with significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis due to MASLD were 17% (50/287), 11% (31/287), and 3% (8/287), respectively. In primary care, BIMAST performed better than other non-invasive markers at predicting significant and advanced fibrosis. Moreover, BIMAST reduced false negatives from 54% (ELF) and 38% (FIB-4) to 10%. In both validation cohorts, BIMAST performance was as good as FIB-4. In the cost-utility analysis, ICER was £2,337.92/QALY for BIMAST.

CONCLUSION

The BIMAST predicts the presence of significant fibrosis in the community, reduces false negatives and is cost-effective. The BIMAST score should be included in the holistic assessment of diabetic patients.

Population screening for cirrhosis

In response to the growing health crisis of liver-related morbidity and mortality, screening for liver cirrhosis has emerged as a promising strategy for early detection and timely intervention. By identifying individuals with severe fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis, screening holds the promise of enhancing treatment outcomes, delaying disease progression, and ultimately improving the quality of life of affected individuals. Clinical practice guidelines from international scientific societies currently recommend targeted screening strategies, investigating high-risk populations with known risk factors of liver disease. While there is good evidence that screening increases case finding in the population, and a growing number of studies indicate that screening may motivate beneficial lifestyle changes in patients with steatotic liver disease, there are major gaps in knowledge in need of clarification before screening programs of cirrhosis are implemented. Foremost, randomized trials are needed to ensure that screening leads to improved liver-related morbidity and mortality. If not, screening for cirrhosis could be unethical due to overdiagnosis, overtreatment, increased health care costs, negative psychological consequences of screening, and futile invasive investigations. Moreover, the tests used for screening need to be optimized toward lower false positive rates than the currently used FIB-4 while retaining few false negatives. Finally, barriers to adherence to screening and implementation of screening programs need to be elucidated. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the current landscape of screening strategies for liver cirrhosis and the promises and pitfalls of current methods for early cirrhosis detection.

Screening for liver fibrosis: lessons from colorectal and lung cancer screening

Many countries have incorporated population screening programmes for cancer, such as colorectal and lung cancer, into their health-care systems. Cirrhosis is more prevalent than colorectal cancer and has a comparable age-standardized mortality rate to lung cancer. Despite this fact, there are no screening programmes in place for early detection of liver fibrosis, the precursor of cirrhosis. In this Perspective, we use insights from colorectal and lung cancer screening to explore the benefits, challenges, implementation strategies and pathways for future liver fibrosis screening initiatives. Several non-invasive methods and referral pathways for early identification of liver fibrosis exist, but in addition to accurate detection, screening programmes must also be cost-effective and demonstrate benefit through a reduction in liver-related mortality. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm this. Future randomized screening trials should evaluate not only the screening tests, but also interventions used to halt disease progression in individuals identified through screening.

Cost-effectiveness study of FIB-4 followed by transient elastography screening strategy for advanced hepatic fibrosis in a NAFLD at-risk population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The cost-effectiveness to screen hepatic fibrosis in at-risk population as recommended by several professional societies has been limited. This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of this screening strategy in the expanded at-risk population recently proposed by several societies.

METHODS

A combined model of the decision tree and Markov models was developed to compare expected costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between screening and no screening groups. The model included liver disease-related health states and cardiovascular disease (CVD) states as a base-case analysis. Screening strategy consisted of fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) followed by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) as a treatment for diagnosed patients.

RESULTS

Cost-effectiveness analysis showed that screening the at-risk population entailed $298 incremental costs and an additional 0.0199 QALY per patient compared to no screening (ICER $14 949/QALY). Screening was cost-effective based on the implicit ICER threshold of $25 000/QALY in Korea. When the effects of ILI on CVD and extrahepatic malignancy were incorporated into the cost-effectiveness model, the ICER decreased by 0.85 times from the base-case analysis (ICER $12 749/QALY). In contrast, when only the effects of liver disease were considered in the model, excluding cardiovascular disease effects, ICER increased from the baseline case analysis to $16 305. Even when replacing with medical costs in Japan and U.S., it remained cost-effective with the estimate below the countries' ICER threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides compelling evidence supporting the cost-effectiveness of FIB-4-based screening the at-risk population for advanced hepatic fibrosis.

Evaluation of risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

NAFLD is emerging as an important cause of liver disease in India. It is estimated that 16-32% of general population in India (nearly 120 million) has NAFLD.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify the risk factors of NAFLD and to identify the association of lifestyle (dietary and physical activity), genetic, and environmental factors with NAFLD in India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted using an international electronic database: PubMed (MEDLINE) and Google Scholar from the date of inception 31st March 2021 to 28th September 2021. We included studies examining patients with NAFLD: Adults above 18 years of age. Studies with or without a control population were both eligible. The studies with a diagnosis of NAFLD based solely on abnormal liver tests were excluded. We tried to get unpublished data but they were not of the quality of inclusion. Meta-analysis was performed using the software STATA 14.2 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA). For each of the studies, the standard error was calculated using the reported number of outcomes and the sample size. A forest plot was used to graphically represent the study-specific and pooled prevalence estimates for overall and subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

In a systematic review and meta-analysis of 8 studies including data from over 1800 individuals, we found that among components of lipid profile, LDL and HDL had a negative effects on NAFLD while triglycerides had a positive effect on NAFLD.

CONCLUSION

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, Hypertension, and Obesity were the potential risk factors for NAFLD but the evidence generated was only from single studies.

A prospective study on the prevalence of MASLD in people with type-2 diabetes in the community. Cost effectiveness of screening strategies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

As screening for the liver disease and risk-stratification pathways are not established in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), we evaluated the diagnostic performance and the cost-utility of different screening strategies for MASLD in the community.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with T2DM from primary care underwent screening for liver diseases, ultrasound, ELF score and transient elastography (TE). Five strategies were compared to the standard of care: ultrasound plus abnormal liver function tests (LFTs), Fibrosis score-4 (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score, Enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF) and TE. Standard of care was defined as abnormal LFTs prompting referral to hospital. A Markov model was built based on the fibrosis stage, defined by TE. We generated the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

Of 300 patients, 287 were included: 64% (186) had MASLD and 10% (28) had other causes of liver disease. Patients with significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis due to MASLD were 17% (50/287), 11% (31/287) and 3% (8/287), respectively. Among those with significant fibrosis classified by LSM≥8.1 kPa, false negatives were 54% from ELF and 38% from FIB-4. On multivariate analysis, waist circumference, BMI, AST levels and education rank were independent predictors of significant and advanced fibrosis. All the screening strategies were associated with QALY gains, with TE (148.73 years) having the most substantial gains, followed by FIB-4 (134.07 years), ELF (131.68 years) and NAFLD fibrosis score (121.25 years). In the cost-utility analysis, ICER was £2480/QALY for TE, £2541.24/QALY for ELF and £2059.98/QALY for FIB-4.

CONCLUSION

Screening for MASLD in the diabetic population in primary care is cost-effective and should become part of a holistic assessment. However, traditional screening strategies, including FIB-4 and ELF, underestimate the presence of significant liver disease in this setting.

Healthcare and socioeconomic costs of NAFLD: A global framework to navigate the uncertainties

Left unaddressed, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) will continue to have substantial health, economic and social implications. To address the challenge, a paradigm shift is needed in the way NAFLD is conceptualised. Concerted, collaborative action across medical specialities, industry sectors and governments will be vital in tackling this public health threat. To drive this change, in this review, we present data on the current global healthcare and socioeconomic costs of NAFLD and highlight priority actions. The estimated healthcare costs of patients with NAFLD are nearly twice as high as their age-matched counterparts without the disease and are highest in those with advanced fibrosis and end-stage liver disease. NAFLD is accountable for the highest increase in DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) among all liver diseases globally. NAFLD and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-specific drug therapies are not yet available and there is considerable uncertainty regarding cost, optimal length of treatment, and their impact on liver-related outcomes and mortality. Among the currently available bariatric procedures, sleeve gastrectomy is reported to be the most cost-effective for NASH resolution. Gastric bypass remains very expensive, while data on bariatric endoscopy are limited. Lastly, we propose a global NAFLD/NASH investment framework to guide the development of achievable yet ambitious country-specific targets and strategic actions to optimise resource allocation and reduce the prevalence of NAFLD and NASH. Its focus on high-level inputs will be critical to enabling a political and financial environment that supports clinical-level implementation of NAFLD prevention, treatment and care efforts, across all settings.

Screening for NAFLD-Current Knowledge and Challenges

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of abnormal liver function tests worldwide, with an estimated prevalence ranging between 19-46% in the general population. Of note, NAFLD is also expected to become a leading cause of end-stage liver disease in the next decades. Given the high prevalence and severity of NAFLD, especially in high-risk populations (i.e., patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus and/or obesity), there is a major interest in early detection of the disease in primary care. Nevertheless, substantial uncertainties still surround the development of a screening policy for NAFLD, such as limitations in currently used non-invasive markers of fibrosis, cost-effectiveness and the absence of a licensed treatment. In this review, we summarise current knowledge and try to identify the limitations surrounding the screening policy for NAFLD in primary care.

Disease Progression Modeling for Economic Evaluation in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Globally, 25% of people have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and, currently, there are no approved pharmacologic treatments for NAFLD. With a slow disease progression, long-term impact of pharmacologic treatments can be assessed only by complementing emerging clinical trial evidence with data from other sources in disease progression modeling. Although this modeling is crucial for economic evaluation studies assessing the clinical and economic consequences of new treatments, the approach to modeling the natural history of NAFLD differs in contemporary research. This systematic literature review investigated modeling of the natural history of NAFLD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted searching PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database to identify articles focusing on modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. Model structure and transition probabilities were extracted from included studies.

RESULTS

Of the 28 articles identified, differences were seen in model structure and data input. Clear definitions of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and NAFLD often were lacking; differences in the granularity of modeling fibrosis progression, the approach to disease regression, and modeling of advanced liver disease varied across studies. Observed transition probabilities for F0 to F1, F1 to F2, F2 to F3, and F3 to compensated cirrhosis varied between 0.059 to 0.095, 0.023 to 0.140, 0.018 to 0.070, and 0.040 to 0.118, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in disease progression modeling for seemingly similar models warrants further inquiry regarding how to model the natural course of NAFLD. Such differences may have a large impact when assessing the value of emerging pharmacologic treatments.

High prevalence of liver fibrosis among general population: a Romanian population-based study

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis can be present undected for years prior to a symptomatic presentation. Early detection may result in improved outcomes. Data are lacking, however, regarding the yield of screening in many populations. We aimed to determined prevalence of significant liver fibrosis diagnosed by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in apparently healthy Romanians.

METHODS

Between December 2021 and March 2022, we prospectively screened 1,027 subjects from different counties of Northeastern Romania using VCTE and B-mode ultrasonagraphy after a comprehensive medical history questionnaire. Participants with abnormal liver stiffness measurement values were further evaluated by laboratory tests to identify the severity and etiology of chronic liver disease.

RESULTS

Overall, 17.9% of subjects had liver stiffness measurments (LSM) ≥8 kpa, including 55 with LSM ≥13.0 kpa. Among these subjects, 26.1% had a history of heavy alcohol intake, 22.3% tested positive for hepatitis B and/or C infection, and 49.5% were diagnosed with NAFLD. The prevalence of elevated LSM was highest among older subjects (>60 y old) and those with diabetes. Among those with LSM ≥13 kPa and ≥9.6 kpa, FIB-4 was <2.67 in 46.9% and 87.5% respectively.

CONCLUSION

There is high prevalence of significant liver fibrosis in the Romanian general population. VCTE is a usefool tool for early detection of liver disease and appears more sensitive than FIB-4.

Liver blood marker testing in UK primary care: a UK wide cohort study, 2004-2016

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine (1) the temporal trends of liver enzyme testing in UK general practice and (2) how these vary among different subgroups at risk of chronic liver disease (CLD).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

UK primary care database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)), 2004-2016.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 18 years or over, registered in the CPRD from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2016.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The frequency of testing recorded within the study period in general practice was calculated for: alanine aminotransferase (ALT); aspartate aminotransferase (AST); gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT); alkaline phosphatase (ALP); bilirubin and platelets. Analyses were conducted in subgroups of patients at high risk of developing liver disease.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 2 912 066 individuals with median follow-up of 3.2 years. The proportion of patients with at least one measurement for ALT, ALP, bilirubin or platelet test gradually increased over the course of the study period and fell for AST and GGT. By 2016, the proportion of the population receiving one of more tests in that year was: platelet count 28.0%, ALP 26.2%, bilirubin 25.6%, ALT 23.7%, GGT 5.1% and AST 2.2%. Those patients with risk factors for CLD had higher proportions receiving liver marker assessments than those without risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The striking finding that AST is now only measured in a fraction of the population has significant implications for routine guidance which frequently expects it. A more nuanced approach where non-invasive markers are targeted towards individuals with risk factors for CLD may be a solution.

AGA Clinical Practice Update: Diagnosis and Management of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Lean Individuals: Expert Review

DESCRIPTION

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is well recognized as a leading etiology for chronic liver disease, affecting >25% of the US and global populations. Up to 1 in 4 individuals with NAFLD have nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, which is associated with significant morbidity and mortality due to complications of liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Although NAFLD is observed predominantly in persons with obesity and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus, an estimated 7%-20% of individuals with NAFLD have lean body habitus. Limited guidance is available to clinicians on appropriate clinical evaluation in lean individuals with NAFLD, such as for inherited/genetic disorders, lipodystrophy, drug-induced NAFLD, and inflammatory disorders. Emerging data now provide more robust evidence to define the epidemiology, natural history, prognosis, and mortality of lean individuals with NAFLD. Multiple studies have found that NAFLD among lean individuals is associated with increased cardiovascular, liver, and all-cause mortality relative to those without NAFLD. This American Gastroenterological Association Clinical Practice Update provides Best Practice Advice to assist clinicians in evidence-based approaches to the diagnosis, staging, and management of NAFLD in lean individuals.

METHODS

This expert review was commissioned and approved by the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) Institute Clinical Practice Updates Committee and the AGA Governing Board to provide timely guidance on a topic of high clinical importance to the AGA membership and underwent internal peer review by the Clinical Practice Updates Committee and external peer review through standard procedures of Gastroenterology. Best Practice Advice Statements BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 1: Lean NAFLD should be diagnosed in individuals with NAFLD and body mass index <25 kg/m2 (non-Asian race) or body mass index <23 kg/m2 (Asian race). BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 2: Lean individuals with NAFLD should be evaluated routinely for comorbid conditions, such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 3: Lean individuals with NAFLD should be risk stratified for hepatic fibrosis to identify those with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 4: Lean individuals in the general population should not undergo routine screening for NAFLD; however, screening should be considered for individuals older than 40 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 5: NAFLD should be considered in lean individuals with metabolic diseases (such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and hypertension), elevated liver biochemical tests, or incidentally noted hepatic steatosis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 6: Clinicians should query patients routinely regarding alcohol consumption patterns in all patients with lean NAFLD. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 7: In patients with lean NAFLD, other causes of liver disease should be ruled out, including other causes of fatty liver, such as HIV, lipodystrophy, lysosomal acid lipase deficiency, familial hypobetalipoproteinemia, and medication-induced hepatic steatosis (methotrexate, amiodarone, tamoxifen, and steroids). BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 8: Current evidence is inadequate to support routine testing for genetic variants in patients with lean NAFLD. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 9: Liver biopsy, as the reference standard, should be considered if there is uncertainty regarding contributing causes of liver injury and/or the stage of liver fibrosis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 10: Serum indices (NAFLD fibrosis score and Fibrosis-4 score) and imaging techniques (transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography) may be used as alternatives to liver biopsy for fibrosis staging and patient follow-up. These tests can be performed at the time of diagnosis and repeated at intervals of 6 months to 2 years, depending on fibrosis stage and the patient's response to intervention. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 11: If noninvasive tests (eg, Fibrosis-4 and NAFLD fibrosis score) are indeterminate, a second noninvasive test (eg, transient elastography or magnetic resonance elastography) should be performed to confirm the stage and prognosis of NAFLD. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 12: In lean patients with NAFLD, lifestyle intervention, including exercise, diet modification, and avoidance of fructose- and sugar-sweetened drinks, to target a modest weight loss of 3%-5% is suggested. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 13: Administration of vitamin E may be considered in lean persons with biopsy-confirmed nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, but without type 2 diabetes mellitus or cirrhosis. Oral pioglitazone 30 mg daily may be considered in lean persons with biopsy-confirmed nonalcoholic steatohepatitis without cirrhosis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 14: The therapeutic role of glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in the management of lean NAFLD is not fully defined and requires further investigation. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 15: Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance with abdominal ultrasound with or without serum α-fetoprotein twice per year is suggested in patients with lean NAFLD and clinical markers compatible with liver cirrhosis.

Non-invasive diagnosis and staging of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered to be the hepatic manifestation of the metabolic syndrome and is characterized by ectopic accumulation of triglycerides in the cytoplasm of hepatocytes, i.e., steatosis. NAFLD has become the most common chronic liver disease, with an estimated global prevalence of 25%. Although the majority of NAFLD patients will never experience liver-related complications, the progressive potential of NAFLD is indisputable, with 5-10% of subjects progressing to cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, or hepatocellular carcinoma. NAFLD patients with advanced fibrosis are at the highest risk of developing cardiovascular and cirrhosis-related complications. Liver biopsy has hitherto been considered the reference method for evaluation of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis stage. Given the limitations of biopsy for widescale screening, non-invasive tests (NITs) for assessment of steatosis and fibrosis stage, including serum-based algorithms and ultrasound- and magnetic resonance-based methods, will play an increasing role in the management of NAFLD patients. This comprehensive review presents the advantages and limitations of NITs for identification of steatosis and advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. The clinical implications of using NITs to identify and manage NAFLD patients are also discussed.

Community pathways for the early detection and risk stratification of chronic liver disease: a narrative systematic review

Patients with chronic liver disease are often diagnosed during an index presentation to hospital with decompensated cirrhosis or liver-related events, and these presentations are associated with high mortality. However, there is often a long asymptomatic phase, in which there is an opportunity for earlier diagnosis and interventions to prevent progression to advanced disease. Therefore, strategies for early diagnosis and interventions (including behavioural changes and pharmacological treatments) that prevent patients progressing to cirrhosis and its associated complications probably have substantial benefits for patients and health-care services. Many community pathways have been generated. Some pathways focus on abnormal liver function tests as a starting point to diagnose liver disease. Other pathways target groups at greater risk of chronic liver disease-particularly people with harmful alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes, and obesity. This systematic review summarises the existing strategies available for the early detection or risk stratification of liver disease, focusing primarily on alcohol-related liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Conducting randomised clinical trials that compare different strategies will be essential to elucidate which pathways are acceptable to patients, feasible, provide high diagnostic accuracy for the detection of liver disease, improve liver-related outcomes, and are most cost-effective at the population level.

Health Technology Adoption in Liver Disease: Innovative Use of Data Science Solutions for Early Disease Detection

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is an ignored epidemic. Premature mortality is considerable and in the United Kingdom (UK) liver disease is in the top three for inequitable healthcare alongside heart and respiratory disease. Fifty percentage of patients with CLD are first diagnosed with cirrhosis after an emergency presentation translating to poorer patient outcomes. Traditional models of care have been based in secondary care when the need is at community level. Investigating patients for disease based on their risk factors at a population level in the community will identify its presence early when there is potential reversibility. Innovation is needed in three broad areas to improve clinical care in this area: better access to diagnostics within the community, integrating diagnostics across primary and secondary care and utilizing digital healthcare to enhance patient care. In this article, we describe how the Integrated Diagnostics for Early Detection of Liver Disease (ID-LIVER) project, funded by UK Research and Innovation, is developing solutions in Greater Manchester to approach the issue of diagnosis of liver disease at a population level. The ambition is to build on innovative pathways previously established in Nottingham by bringing together NHS organizations, academic partners and commercial organizations. The motivation is to co-create and implement a commercial solution that integrates multimodal diagnostics via cutting edge data science to drive growth and disrupt the currently inadequate model. The ambitious vision is for this to be widely adopted for early diagnosis and stratification of liver disease at a population level within the NHS.

Identification of liver disease: why and how

Mortality from chronic liver disease (CLD) in the UK has increased by over 400% since 1970, driven by alcohol, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and hepatitis C virus, the natural histories of which can all be improved by early intervention. Patients often present with advanced disease, which would be preventable if diagnosed earlier and lifestyle change opportunities offered. Liver function tests (LFTs) are very commonly measured. Approximately 20% are abnormal, yet the majority are not investigated according to guidelines. However, investigating all abnormal LFTs to identify early liver disease would overwhelm services. Recently, several diagnostic pathways have been implemented across the country; some focus on abnormal LFTs and some on stratifying at-risk populations. This review will collate the evidence on the size of the problem and the challenges it poses. We will discuss the limitations and restrictions within systems that limit the responses available, review the current pathways being evaluated and piloted in the UK, and explore the arguments for and against LFT-based approaches and 'case-finding strategies' in the community diagnosis of liver disease. Furthermore, the role of fibrosis assessment methods (including scoring systems such as Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, the enhanced liver fibrosis test and elastography) within these pathways will also be discussed. In conclusion, this review aims to establish some principles which, if adopted, are likely to improve the diagnosis of advanced liver disease, and identify the areas of contention for further research, in order to establish the most effective community detection models of liver disease.

Low awareness of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes in Swedish Primary Health Care

OBJECTIVES

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is more common in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) compared to individuals without. Recent guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in patients with T2DM. Our aim was to investigate the prevalence of NAFLD in patients with T2DM in a Swedish primary health care setting, how they are cared for and assess the risk of biochemical signs of advanced fibrosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In this cohort study, patients with T2DM from five primary health care centers were included. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed and living habits, medical history, results of diagnostic imaging and anthropometric and biochemical features were noted in a standardized form. The risk of steatosis and advanced fibrosis was assessed using commonly used algorithms (FLI, HSI, NAFLD-LFS, NAFLD ridge score, FIB-4 and NFS).

RESULTS

In total 350 patients were included. Diagnostic imaging had been performed in 132 patients and of these, 34 (26%) had steatosis, which was not noted in the medical records in 16 (47%) patients. One patient with steatosis had been referred to a hepatologist. Of assessable patients, 71-97% had a high to intermediate risk of steatosis and 29-65% had an intermediate to high risk of advanced fibrosis according to the algorithms used.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates a high prevalence of NAFLD among T2DM patients in Swedish primary care. Patients with known NAFLD were followed up to a very low extent. Using fibrosis algorithms in primary health care would result in many patients needing further assessment in secondary care.

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

Advancing the global public health agenda for NAFLD: a consensus statement

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a potentially serious liver disease that affects approximately one-quarter of the global adult population, causing a substantial burden of ill health with wide-ranging social and economic implications. It is a multisystem disease and is considered the hepatic component of metabolic syndrome. Unlike other highly prevalent conditions, NAFLD has received little attention from the global public health community. Health system and public health responses to NAFLD have been weak and fragmented, and, despite its pervasiveness, NAFLD is largely unknown outside hepatology and gastroenterology. There is only a nascent global public health movement addressing NAFLD, and the disease is absent from nearly all national and international strategies and policies for non-communicable diseases, including obesity. In this global Delphi study, a multidisciplinary group of experts developed consensus statements and recommendations, which a larger group of collaborators reviewed over three rounds until consensus was achieved. The resulting consensus statements and recommendations address a broad range of topics - from epidemiology, awareness, care and treatment to public health policies and leadership - that have general relevance for policy-makers, health-care practitioners, civil society groups, research institutions and affected populations. These recommendations should provide a strong foundation for a comprehensive public health response to NAFLD.

Economic Evaluation of Screening Interventions for Drug-induced Liver Injury

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) continue to be a significant global burden, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While much progress has been made in treating these epidemics, this has led to a rise in liver complications, as patients on ARTs and anti-TBs are at an increased risk of drug-induced liver injury (DILI). Therefore, patients on these medicines require consistent screening of liver function. Due to logistical barriers, gold standard DILI screening fails to be executed at the point-of-care in LMICs. For this reason, we used cost-effectiveness analysis to gauge the efficacy of a paper-test that could be implemented in these settings.

METHODS

We used a Markov Model to simulate HIV and TB coinfected patient care in LMICs using both publicly available data and data from Village Health Works in Burundi. We compared the cost-effectiveness of two screening interventions for liver function monitoring: 1. paper-based point-of-care testing, and 2. gold-standard laboratory testing. These interventions were compared against baseline clinical monitoring.

RESULTS

The paper test showed a 56% increase in efficacy over clinical monitoring alone. The paper-test is more cost-effective than the gold-standard method, at a ceiling cost of $1.60 per test.

CONCLUSIONS

With this information, policy makers can be informed as to the large potential value of paper-based tests when gold standard monitoring is not achievable. Scientists and engineers should also keep these analyses in mind and while in development limit the cost of an ALT screening test to $1.60.

Real-world Comorbidity Burden, Health Care Utilization, and Costs of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Patients With Advanced Liver Diseases

GOALS

This study evaluates the real-world comorbidity burden, health care resource utilization (HRU), and costs among nonalcoholic fatty liver disease/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NAFLD/NASH) patients with advanced liver diseases [compensated cirrhosis (CC), decompensated cirrhosis (DCC), liver transplantation (LT), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)].

BACKGROUND

NAFLD/NASH is a leading cause of liver diseases.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Adult NAFLD/NASH patients were identified retrospectively from MarketScan Commercial claims (2006-2016). Following initial NAFLD/NASH diagnosis, advanced liver diseases were identified using the first diagnosis as their index date. Mean annual all-cause HRU and costs (2016 USD) were reported. Adjusted costs were estimated through generalized linear models. Cumulative costs were illustrated for patient subsets with variable follow-up for each stage.

RESULTS

Within the database, 485,774 NAFLD/NASH patients met eligibility criteria. Of these, 93.4% (453,564) were NAFLD/NASH patients without advanced liver diseases, 1.6% (7665) with CC, 3.3% (15,833) with DCC, 0.1% (696) with LT, and 0.1% (428) with HCC. Comorbidity burden was high and increased as patients progressed through liver disease severity stages. Compared with NAFLD/NASH without advanced liver diseases (adjusted costs: $23,860), the annual cost of CC, DCC, LT, and HCC were 1.22, 5.64, 8.27, and 4.09 times higher [adjusted costs: $29,078, $134,448, $197,392, and $97,563 (P<0.0001)]. Inpatient admissions significantly drove increasing HRU.

CONCLUSION

Study findings suggest the need for early identification and effective management of NAFLD/NASH patients to minimize comorbidity burden, HRU, and costs in the privately insured US population.

Defining comprehensive models of care for NAFLD

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is now the leading cause of chronic liver disease globally. Despite the increased demand placed on health-care systems, little attention has been given to the design and implementation of efficient and effective models of care for patients with NAFLD. In many health-care settings, no formal pathways exist and, where pathways are in place, they are often not standardized according to good practices. We systematically searched the peer-reviewed literature with the aim of identifying published examples of comprehensive models of care that answered four key questions: what services are provided? Where are they provided? Who is offering them? How are they coordinated and integrated within health-care systems? We identified seven models of care and synthesized the findings into eight recommendations nested within the 'what, where, who and how' of care models. These recommendations, aimed at policy-makers and practitioners designing and implementing models of care, can help to address the increasing need for the provision of good practice care for patients with NAFLD.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on non-invasive tests for evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis - 2021 update

Non-invasive tests are increasingly being used to improve the diagnosis and prognostication of chronic liver diseases across aetiologies. Herein, we provide the latest update to the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the use of non-invasive tests for the evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis, focusing on the topics for which relevant evidence has been published in the last 5 years.

Disease burden and economic impact of diagnosed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in five European countries in 2018: A cost-of-illness analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic disease that can progress to end-stage liver disease (ESLD). A large proportion of early-stage NASH patients remain undiagnosed compared to those with advanced fibrosis, who are more likely to receive disease management interventions. This study estimated the disease burden and economic impact of diagnosed NASH in the adult population of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom in 2018.

METHODS

The socioeconomic burden of diagnosed NASH was estimated using cost-of-illness methodology applying a prevalence approach to estimate the number of adults with NASH and the attributable economic and wellbeing costs. Given undiagnosed patients do not incur costs in the study, the probability of diagnosis is central to cost estimation. The analysis was based on a literature review, databases and consultation with clinical experts, economists and patient groups.

RESULTS

The proportion of adult NASH patients with a diagnosis ranged from 11.9% to 12.7% across countries, which increased to 38.8%-39.1% for advanced fibrosis (F3-F4 compensated cirrhosis). Total economic costs were €8548-19 546M. Of these, health system costs were €619-1292M. Total wellbeing costs were €41 536-90 379M. The majority of the undiagnosed population (87.3%-88.2% of total prevalence) was found to have early-stage NASH, which, left untreated, may progress to more resource consuming ESLD over time.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that the majority of economic and wellbeing costs of NASH are experienced in late disease stages. Earlier diagnosis and care of NASH patients could reduce future healthcare costs.

Disease burden and economic impact of diagnosed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) - a progressive subset of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) - is a chronic liver disease that can progress to advanced fibrosis, cirrhosis, and end-stage liver disease (ESLD) if left untreated. Early-stage NASH is usually asymptomatic, meaning a large proportion of the prevalent population are undiagnosed. Receiving a NASH diagnosis increases the probability that a patient will receive interventions for the purpose of managing their condition. The purpose of this study was to estimate the disease burden and economic impact of diagnosed NASH in the United Kingdom (UK) adult population in 2018.

METHODS

The socioeconomic burden of diagnosed NASH from a societal perspective was estimated using cost-of-illness methodology applying a prevalence approach. This involved estimating the number of adults with diagnosed NASH in the UK in a base period (2018) and the economic and wellbeing costs attributable to diagnosed NASH in that period. The analysis was based on a targeted review of the scientific literature, existing databases and consultation with clinical experts, health economists and patient groups.

RESULTS

Of the prevalent NASH population in the UK in 2018, an estimated 79.8% were not diagnosed. In particular, of the prevalent population in disease stages F0 to F2, only 2.0% (F0), 2.0% (F1) and 16.5% (F2), respectively, were diagnosed. Total economic costs of diagnosed NASH in the UK ranged from £2.3 billion (lower prevalence scenario, base probability of diagnosis scenario) to £4.2 billion (higher prevalence scenario, base probability of diagnosis scenario). In 2018, people with NASH in the UK were estimated to experience 94,094 to 174,564 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) overall. Total wellbeing costs associated with NASH in 2018 were estimated to range between £5.6 to £10.5 billion.

CONCLUSION

The prevention and appropriate management of adult NASH patients could result in reduced economic costs and improvements in wellbeing.

Modelling the cost effectiveness of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk stratification strategies in the community setting

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent worldwide. Identifying high-risk patients is critical to best utilize limited health care resources. We established a community-based care pathway using 2D ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) to identify high risk patients with NAFLD. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of various non-invasive strategies to correctly identify high-risk patients.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was created using a payer's perspective for a hypothetical patient with NAFLD. FIB-4 [≥1.3], NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) [≥-1.455], SWE [≥8 kPa], transient elastography (TE) [≥8 kPa], and sequential strategies with FIB-4 or NFS followed by either SWE or TE were compared to identify patients with either significant (≥F2) or advanced fibrosis (≥F3). Model inputs were obtained from local data and published literature. The cost/correct diagnosis of advanced NAFLD was obtained and univariate sensitivity analysis was performed.

RESULTS

For ≥F2 fibrosis, FIB-4/SWE cost $148.75/correct diagnosis while SWE cost $276.42/correct diagnosis, identifying 84% of patients correctly. For ≥F3 fibrosis, using FIB-4/SWE correctly identified 92% of diagnoses and dominated all other strategies. The ranking of strategies was unchanged when stratified by normal or abnormal ALT. For ≥F3 fibrosis, the cost/correct diagnosis was less in the normal ALT group.

CONCLUSIONS

SWE based strategies were the most cost effective for diagnosing ≥F2 fibrosis. For ≥F3 fibrosis, FIB-4 followed by SWE was the most effective and least costly strategy. Further evaluation of the timing of repeating non-invasive strategies are required to enhance the cost-effective management of NAFLD.

Referral Patterns for Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

The incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is rapidly increasing. This study evaluates the referral pattern of patients with NAFLD. A cohort study evaluating all patients with NAFLD referred to a single Gastroenterology Department from January 2017 to June 2020. Electronic patient referral letters were reviewed, and patients with NAFLD were diagnosed using standardized tests as part of a prospective cohort study. Predictors of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with significant (≥F2) fibrosis were evaluated in logistic regression analyses. In total, 323 (18.6%) of 1735 patients referred to the Gastro Unit during the study period were diagnosed with NAFLD. Patients were referred from general practitioners (62.5%) or other hospital departments (37.5%). Most referral letters included information suggesting a possible diagnosis of NAFLD (patient history, blood tests, or diagnostic imaging) or used the nonspecific general diagnosis suspected disease (Z.038). Out of 110 patients referred for a liver biopsy, 71 (22%) had NASH with significant fibrosis (F2 n = 39, F3 n = 19, F4 n = 13). Thirty-nine of these patients were referred from the primary sector. A logistic regression analysis (adjusted for age and gender) including all 323 patients showed that type 2 diabetes was the only significant independent predictor of NASH with fibrosis.

Management of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is a very common medical condition, driven by a combination of genetic and lifestyle factors, ultimately producing a severe chronic liver disease and increased cardiovascular risk. Most people are asymptomatic for a long time, and their daily life is unaffected, leading to difficulty in identifying and managing people who slowly progress to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), NASH-cirrhosis, and eventually hepatocellular carcinoma. Despite advances in the understanding of pathogenic mechanisms and the identification of liver fibrosis as the strongest factor in predicting disease progression, no specific treatments have been approved by regulatory agencies. Outside controlled trials, treatment is generally limited to lifestyle intervention aimed at weight loss. Pioglitazone remains the drug of choice to reduce progression of fibrosis in people with diabetes, although it is often used off-label in the absence of diabetes. Vitamin E is mainly used in children and may be considered in adults without diabetes. Several drugs are under investigation according to the agreed targets of reduced NASH activity without worsening of fibrosis or improving fibrosis without worsening of NASH. Anti-inflammatory, anti-fibrotic agents and metabolism modulators have been tested in either phase III or phase IIb randomized controlled trials; a few failed, and others have produced marginally positive results, but only a few are being tested in extension studies. The development of non-invasive, easily repeatable surrogate biomarkers and/or imaging tools is crucial to facilitate clinical studies and limit liver biopsy.

Case-finding strategies in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Among the large population of patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), identifying those with advanced disease remains challenging. Many patients are diagnosed late, following the development of liver-related complications, leading to poor clinical outcomes. Accumulating evidence suggests that using non-invasive tests for liver fibrosis in patients with metabolic risk factors improves the detection of patients in need of specialised management and is cost-effective. Because of the vast number of patients requiring evaluation, the active participation of general practitioners and physicians who manage patients with metabolic disorders, such as diabetologists, is crucial; this calls for the increased awareness of NAFLD beyond liver clinics. Non-invasive case-finding strategies will need to be further validated and generalised for upcoming drug therapies to have the required impact on the worldwide burden of NAFLD.

Overall clinical and economic impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

OBJECTIVES

to establish the clinical and economic consequences (resource utilization and healthcare costs) of non-alcoholic fatty liver in the setting of the usual clinical practice in Spain.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

an observational, retrospective study was performed based on a review of the medical records of adult patients ≥ 18 years of age who sought medical care from 2017 to 2018. Patients were categorized into two groups according to fibrosis stage (estimation method: FIB-4): a) F0-F2; and b) F3-F4 (advanced fibrosis). Follow-up lasted one year. Primary endpoints included comorbidity, concomitant medication, resource utilization and costs. Results were analyzed using a multivariate approach with p < 0.05.

RESULTS

a total of 8,151 patients were recruited with a mean age of 61.1 years and 51.5 % were male. By group: a) mild fibrosis n = 7,127, 87.4 %; and b) advanced fibrosis n = 1,024, 12.6 % (6.8 % with liver cirrhosis). The most common comorbidities included 63 % dyslipidemia, 52 % obesity, 52 % hypertension and 35 % diabetes. The average number of drugs used was 2.1 per patient. Patients with advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) had a higher average number of concomitant medications (2.5 vs 2.1; p < 0.001) and a higher AST/ALT ratio (1.1 vs 0.8; p < 0.001). The average cost (patient-year) for subjects with advanced fibrosis, corrected for covariates, was higher (€1,812 vs €1,128, p < 0.001). Age, morbidity, concomitant medication, fibrosis stage and total costs were higher in patients with diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

patients with advanced fibrosis were associated with more comorbidity and concomitant medications, which resulted in higher healthcare costs for the National Health System.

Changing trends of liver transplantation and mortality from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

The rising tide of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) associated with the obesity epidemic is a major international health concern. NAFLD is the leading global cause of liver disease with an estimated prevalence of 25% and is the fastest growing indication for liver transplantation (LT). The presence and severity of liver fibrosis is the only histologic predictor of clinical outcomes in this group. NAFLD poses several challenges in the peri-transplant setting including the management of multiple metabolic co-morbidities, post-transplant obesity and cardiovascular risk. However, post-LT outcomes in well-selected NAFLD patients appear similar to non-NAFLD indications, including in the setting of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The rising prevalence of NAFLD may impact potential liver graft donors, which may in-turn adversely affect post-LT outcomes. This review outlines the current epidemiology, natural history and outcomes of NAFLD with a focus on pre- and post-liver transplant settings.

Healthcare resource utilization and costs of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis patients with advanced liver disease in Italy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) may progress to advanced liver disease (AdvLD). This study characterized comorbidities, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and associated costs among hospitalized patients with AdvLD due to NASH in Italy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Adult nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/NASH patients from 2011 to 2017 were identified from administrative databases of Italian local health units using ICD-9-CM codes. Development of compensated cirrhosis (CC), decompensated cirrhosis (DCC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), or liver transplant (LT) was identified using first diagnosis date for each severity cohort (index-date). Patients progressing to multiple disease stages were included in >1 cohort. Patients were followed from index-date until the earliest of disease progression, end of coverage, death, or end of study. Within each cohort, per member per month values were annualized to calculate all-cause HCRU or costs(€) in 2017. Of the 9,729 hospitalized NAFLD/NASH patients identified, 97% were without AdvLD, 1.3% had CC, 3.1% DCC, 0.8% HCC, 0.1% LT. Comorbidity burden was high across all cohorts. Mean annual number of inpatient services was greater in patients with AdvLD than without AdvLD. Similar trends were observed in outpatient visits and pharmacy fills. Mean total annual costs increased with disease severity, driven primarily by inpatient services costs.

CONCLUSION

NAFLD/NASH patients in Italy have high comorbidity burden. AdvLD patients had significantly higher costs. The higher prevalence of DCC compared to CC in this population may suggest challenges of effectively screening and identifying NAFLD/NASH patients. Early identification and effective management are needed to reduce risk of disease progression and subsequent HCRU and costs.

Cost-Effectiveness of Noninvasive Screening for Alcohol-Related Liver Fibrosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol-related liver disease is often undetected until irreversible late-stage decompensated disease manifests. Consequently, there is an unmet need for effective and economically reasonable pathways to screen for advanced alcohol-related fibrosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We used real-world data from a large biopsy-controlled study of excessive drinkers recruited from primary and secondary care, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four primary care initiated strategies: (1) routine liver function tests with follow-up ultrasonography for test-positives, (2) the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test with hospital liver stiffness measurement (LSM) for positives, (3) a three-tier strategy using the Forns Index to control before strategy 2, and (4) direct referral of all to LSM. We used linked decision trees and Markov models to evaluate outcomes short term (cost-per-accurate diagnosis) and long term (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]). For low-prevalence populations, ELF with LSM follow-up was most cost-effective, both short term (accuracy 96%, $196 per patient) and long term (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $5,387-$8,430/QALY), depending on whether diagnostic testing had lasting or temporary effects on abstinence rates. Adding Forns Index decreased costs to $72 per patient and accuracy to 95%. The strategy resulted in fewer QALYs due to more false negatives but an ICER of $3,012, making this strategy suited for areas with restricted access to ELF and transient elastography or lower willingness-to-pay. For high-prevalence populations, direct referral to LSM was highly cost-effective (accuracy 93%, $297 per patient), with ICERs between $490 and $1,037/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Noninvasive screening for advanced alcohol-related fibrosis is a cost-effective intervention when different referral pathways are used according to the prevalence of advanced fibrosis. Patients in the primary health care sector should be tested with the ELF test followed by LSM if the test was positive, whereas direct referral to LSM is highly cost-effective in high-prevalence cohorts.

Systematic Literature Review and Critical Appraisal of Health Economic Models Used in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses in Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis: Potential for Improvements

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a severe, typically progressive form of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The global prevalence of NASH is increasing, driven partly by the global increase in obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), such that NASH is now a leading cause of cirrhosis. There is currently an unmet clinical need for efficacious and cost-effective treatments for NASH; no pharmacologic agents have an approved indication for NASH.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to summarise and critically appraise published health economic models of NASH, to evaluate their quality and suitability for use in the assessment of novel treatments for NASH, and to identify knowledge gaps, challenges and opportunities for future modelling.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed using the MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and EconLit databases to identify published health economic analyses in patients with NAFLD or NASH. Supplementary hand searches of grey literature were also performed. Articles published up to November 2019 were included in the review. Quality assessment of identified studies was also performed.

RESULTS

A total of 19 articles comprising 16 unique models including either NAFLD as a whole or NASH alone were included in the review. Structurally, most models had a state-transition component; in terms of health states, two different approaches to early disease states were used, modelling either progression through fibrosis stages or NAFLD/NASH-specific health states. Conditions that frequently co-exist with NASH, such as obesity, T2DM and cardiovascular disease were not captured in models identified here. Late-stage complications such as cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were consistently included, but input data (e.g. costs, utilities and transition probabilities) for late-stage complications were frequently sourced from other liver disease areas. The quality of included studies was heterogenous, and only a small proportion of studies reported internal and external validation processes.

CONCLUSION

The health economic models identified in this review are associated with limitations primarily driven by a lack of NASH-specific data. Identified models also largely overlooked the intricate association between NASH and other conditions, including obesity and T2DM, and did not capture the increased risk of cardiovascular events associated with NASH. High-quality, transparent, validated health economic models of NASH will be required to evaluate the cost effectiveness of treatments currently in development, particularly compounds that may target other non-hepatic outcomes.

Metabolic risk factors and incident advanced liver disease in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): A systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based observational studies

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. Many individuals have risk factors associated with NAFLD, but the majority do not develop advanced liver disease: cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, or hepatocellular carcinoma. Identifying people at high risk of experiencing these complications is important in order to prevent disease progression. This review synthesises the evidence on metabolic risk factors and their potential to predict liver disease outcomes in the general population at risk of NAFLD or with diagnosed NAFLD.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies. Databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov) were searched up to 9 January 2020. Studies were included that reported severe liver disease outcomes (defined as liver cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, or liver-related death) or advanced fibrosis/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in adult individuals with metabolic risk factors, compared with individuals with no metabolic risk factors. Cohorts selected on the basis of a clinically indicated liver biopsy were excluded to better reflect general population risk. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUIPS tool. The results of similar studies were pooled, and overall estimates of hazard ratio (HR) were obtained using random-effects meta-analyses. Of 7,300 unique citations, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria and were of sufficient quality, with 18 studies contributing data suitable for pooling in 2 random-effects meta-analyses. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) was associated with an increased risk of incident severe liver disease events (adjusted HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.83-2.76, p < 0.001, I2 99%). T2DM data were from 12 studies, with 22.8 million individuals followed up for a median of 10 years (IQR 6.4 to 16.9) experiencing 72,792 liver events. Fourteen studies were included in the meta-analysis of obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m2) as a prognostic factor, providing data on 19.3 million individuals followed up for a median of 13.8 years (IQR 9.0 to 19.8) experiencing 49,541 liver events. Obesity was associated with a modest increase in risk of incident severe liver disease outcomes (adjusted HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28, p < 0.001, I2 87%). There was also evidence to suggest that lipid abnormalities (low high-density lipoprotein and high triglycerides) and hypertension were both independently associated with incident severe liver disease. Significant study heterogeneity observed in the meta-analyses and possible under-publishing of smaller negative studies are acknowledged to be limitations, as well as the potential effect of competing risks on outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In this review, we observed that T2DM is associated with a greater than 2-fold increase in the risk of developing severe liver disease. As the incidence of diabetes and obesity continue to rise, using these findings to improve case finding for people at high risk of liver disease will allow for effective management to help address the increasing morbidity and mortality from liver disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42018115459.

Detecting chronic liver disease: are liver function tests the solution?

By 2020, chronic liver disease will have eclipsed ischaemic heart disease as the leading cause of working life years lost in the UK. As mortality from chronic liver disease continues to rise, the landscape of aetiology has shifted from infectious to non-communicable causes. In parallel with the growing prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is estimated to affect 25% of the UK adult population. Simultaneously, escalating alcohol consumption has fuelled public health and economic concerns regarding its widespread impact on working-age adults. Given that chronic liver disease remains clinically silent until its advanced stages, there is an urgent unmet need to identify affected individuals earlier in the disease process, enabling targeted intervention strategies which may improve prognosis. Robust epidemiological data have shown that liver fibrosis is the strongest predictor of clinically meaningful outcomes, including decompensation, liver cancer and overall mortality. Detecting fibrosis among at-risk individuals, in a manner that is reproducible, non-invasive, safe and cost effective, has become a major challenge of our time. This article addresses the pitfalls of the standard panel of liver function tests, discusses other non-invasive biomarkers and reviews imaging technologies which may revolutionise community-based diagnosis and stratification of chronic liver disease.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Adults: Current Concepts in Etiology, Outcomes, and Management

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a spectrum of disease, extending from simple steatosis to inflammation and fibrosis with a significant risk for the development of cirrhosis. It is highly prevalent and is associated with significant adverse outcomes both through liver-specific morbidity and mortality but, perhaps more important, through adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes. It is closely associated with type 2 diabetes and obesity, and both of these conditions drive progressive disease toward the more advanced stages. The mechanisms that govern hepatic lipid accumulation and the predisposition to inflammation and fibrosis are still not fully understood but reflect a complex interplay between metabolic target tissues including adipose and skeletal muscle, and immune and inflammatory cells. The ability to make an accurate assessment of disease stage (that relates to clinical outcome) can also be challenging. While liver biopsy is still regarded as the gold-standard investigative tool, there is an extensive literature on the search for novel noninvasive biomarkers and imaging modalities that aim to accurately reflect the stage of underlying disease. Finally, although no therapies are currently licensed for the treatment of NAFLD, there are interventions that appear to have proven efficacy in randomized controlled trials as well as an extensive emerging therapeutic landscape of new agents that target many of the fundamental pathophysiological processes that drive NAFLD. It is highly likely that over the next few years, new treatments with a specific license for the treatment of NAFLD will become available.

Transient elastography for screening of liver fibrosis: Cost-effectiveness analysis from six prospective cohorts in Europe and Asia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease pose an important challenge to current clinical healthcare pathways because of the large number of at-risk patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of transient elastography (TE) as a screening method to detect liver fibrosis in a primary care pathway.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using real-life individual patient data from 6 independent prospective cohorts (5 from Europe and 1 from Asia). A diagnostic algorithm with conditional inference trees was developed to explore the relationships between liver stiffness, socio-demographics, comorbidities, and hepatic fibrosis, the latter assessed by fibrosis scores (FIB-4, NFS) and liver biopsies in a subset of 352 patients. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness of a screening strategy against standard of care alongside the numbers needed to screen to diagnose a patient with fibrosis stage ≥F2.

RESULTS

The data set encompassed 6,295 participants (mean age 55 ± 12 years, BMI 27 ± 5 kg/m², liver stiffness 5.6 ± 5.0 kPa). A 9.1 kPa TE cut-off provided the best accuracy for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (≥F2) in general population settings, whereas a threshold of 9.5 kPa was optimal for populations at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease. TE with the proposed cut-offs outperformed fibrosis scores in terms of accuracy. Screening with TE was cost-effective with mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from 2,570 €/QALY (95% CI 2,456-2,683) for a population at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease (age ≥45 years) to 6,217 €/QALY (95% CI 5,832-6,601) in the general population. Overall, there was a 12% chance of TE screening being cost saving across countries and populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for liver fibrosis with TE in primary care is a cost-effective intervention for European and Asian populations and may even be cost saving.

LAY SUMMARY

The lack of optimized public health screening strategies for the detection of liver fibrosis in adults without known liver disease presents a major healthcare challenge. Analyses from 6 independent international cohorts, with transient elastography measurements, show that a community-based risk-stratification strategy for alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases is cost-effective and potentially cost saving for our healthcare systems, as it leads to earlier identification of patients.

Obesity Is the Most Common Risk Factor for Chronic Liver Disease: Results From a Risk Stratification Pathway Using Transient Elastography

INTRODUCTION

Obesity has been associated with liver fibrosis, yet guidelines do not emphasize it as an independent risk factor in which to have a high index of suspicion of advanced disease. We aimed to elucidate the effect of a raised body mass index on the risk of liver disease using data from a community risk stratification pathway.

METHODS

We prospectively recruited patients from a primary care practice with hazardous alcohol use and/or type 2 diabetes and/or obesity. Subjects were invited for a transient elastography reading. A threshold of ≥8.0 kPa defined an elevated reading consistent with clinically significant liver disease.

RESULTS

Five hundred seventy-six patients participated in the pathway; of which, 533 patients had a reliable reading and 66 (12.4%) had an elevated reading. Thirty-one percent of patients with an elevated reading had obesity as their only risk factor. The proportion of patients with an elevated reading was similar among those with obesity (8.9%) to patients with more recognized solitary risk factors (type 2 diabetes 10.8%; hazardous alcohol use 4.8%). Obesity in combination with other risk factors further increased the proportion of patients with an elevated reading. In multivariate logistic regression, increasing body mass index and type 2 diabetes were significantly associated with an elevated reading.

DISCUSSION

Obesity as a single or additive risk factor for chronic liver disease is significant. Future case-finding strategies using a risk factor approach should incorporate obesity within proposed algorithms.

A Structured Literature Review of the Epidemiology and Disease Burden of Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)

INTRODUCTION

Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic, progressive disease characterized by fatty liver and liver cell injury, advancing to fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Diagnosis involves liver biopsy; however, as a result of its high cost and invasiveness, NASH remains underdiagnosed, and accurate burden of disease (BoD) data are lacking. Our aim was to understand the epidemiological and BoD landscape in NASH and identify knowledge gaps.

METHODS

The Ovid search engine was used to conduct a structured review, following quality systematic principles. It included publications that reported on epidemiology, quality of life (QoL) and BoD outcomes in NASH adults. Searches were limited to English language studies published between January 2007 and September 2017. Additional grey literature searches were conducted. A total of 53 references were selected; 38 were peer-reviewed and 15 were grey literature sources.

RESULTS

NASH is estimated to affect 3-5% of the global population, most suffering from several comorbidities. Advancing fibrosis drives clinical outcomes, with approximately 20% of patients developing cirrhosis and/or HCC, the latter being a leading cause of death in NASH. A recent model predicted the 15-year survival of advanced fibrosis patients at F3 and F4 as 51.0% and 28.4%, respectively. The limited data consistently show that NASH patients experience significantly poorer QoL and higher costs compared to non-NASH patients.

CONCLUSION

This first broad-ranging examination of NASH literature revealed a paucity of evidence, with poor-quality, small studies found. The overwhelming impact of NASH and its patient and healthcare burden is evident. Further evidence is needed to improve our understanding of NASH, especially as fibrosis stages advance.

FUNDING

Gilead Science Inc.

The Development and Implementation of a Commissioned Pathway for the Identification and Stratification of Liver Disease in the Community

OBJECTIVE

To describe the development of the Nottingham liver disease stratification pathway, present a 12-month evaluation of uptake, stratification results and compare the pathway to current British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) guidelines.

DESIGN

A referral pathway between primary and secondary care for the detection and risk stratification of liver disease.

SETTING

Four Nottinghamshire Clinical Commissioning Groups (700,000 population).

PATIENTS

Patients are referred to the pathway with i) raised AST/ALT ratio ii) harmful alcohol use or iii) risk or presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

INTERVENTIONS

Clinic attendance within secondary care for transient elastography (TE) and brief lifestyle intervention. The TE result is reported back to the GP with advice on interpretation and referral guidance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Pathway uptake, patient characteristics, liver disease stratification results and stakeholder feedback.

RESULTS

Over the first 12 months 968 patients attended a TE clinic appointment, with raised AST/ALT ratio being the most common single reason for referral (36.9%). Of the total, 222 (22.9%) patients had an elevated liver stiffness (≥8kPa) and in 60 (27.0%) liver stiffness was indicative of advanced chronic liver disease. If a traditional approach based on raised liver enzymes (BSG guidance) had been followed, 38.7% of those with significant liver disease (≥8kPa) would have gone undetected among those referred for either NAFLD or raised AST:ALT.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting patients with risk factors for chronic liver disease and stratifying them using TE can detect significant chronic liver disease above and beyond the approach based on liver enzyme elevation.

Gathering momentum for the way ahead: fifth report of the Lancet Standing Commission on Liver Disease in the UK

This report presents further evidence on the escalating alcohol consumption in the UK and the burden of liver disease associated with this major risk factor, as well as the effects on hospital and primary care. We reiterate the need for fiscal regulation by the UK Government if overall alcohol consumption is to be reduced sufficiently to improve health outcomes. We also draw attention to the effects of drastic cuts in public services for alcohol treatment, the repeated failures of voluntary agreements with the drinks industry, and the influence of the industry through its lobbying activities. We continue to press for reintroduction of the alcohol duty escalator, which was highly effective during the 5 years it was in place, and the introduction of minimum unit pricing in England, targeted at the heaviest drinkers. Results from the introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, with results from Wales to follow, are likely to seriously expose the weakness of England's position. The increasing prevalence of obesity-related liver disease, the rising number of people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and its complications, and increasing number of cases of end-stage liver disease and primary liver cancers from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease make apparent the need for an obesity strategy for adults. We also discuss the important effects of obesity and alcohol on disease progression, and the increased risk of the ten most common cancers (including breast and colon cancers). A new in-depth analysis of the UK National Health Service (NHS) and total societal costs shows the extraordinarily large expenditures that could be saved or redeployed elsewhere in the NHS. Excellent results have been reported for new antiviral drugs for hepatitis C virus infection, making elimination of chronic infection a real possibility ahead of the WHO 2030 target. However, the extent of unidentified cases remains a problem, and will also apply when new curative drugs for hepatitis B virus become available. We also describe efforts to improve standards of hospital care for liver disease with better understanding of current service deficiencies and a new accreditation process for hospitals providing liver services. New commissioning arrangements for primary and community care represent progress, in terms of effective screening of high-risk subjects and the early detection of liver disease.

Decision modelling for economic evaluation of liver transplantation

As the gap between a shortage of organs and the immense demand for liver grafts persists, every available donor liver needs to be optimized for utility, urgency and equity. To overcome this challenge, decision modelling might allow us to gather evidence from previous studies as well as compare the costs and consequences of alternative options. For public health policy and clinical intervention assessment, it is a potentially powerful tool. The most commonly used types of decision analytical models include decision trees, the Markov model, microsimulation, discrete event simulation and the system dynamic model. Analytic models could support decision makers in the field of liver transplantation when facing specific problems by synthesizing evidence, comprising all relevant options, generalizing results to other contexts, extending the time horizon and exploring the uncertainty. For modeling studies of economic evaluation for transplantation, understanding the current nature of the disease is crucial, as well as the selection of appropriate modelling techniques. The quality and availability of data is another key element for the selection and development of decision analytical models. In addition, good practice guidelines should be complied, which is important for standardization and comparability between economic outputs.