Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Estimating the changing disease burden attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012

Background. Ongoing quantification of the disease burden attributable to smoking is important to monitor and strengthen tobacco control policies.Objectives. To estimate the attributable burden due to smoking in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.Methods. We estimated attributable burden due to smoking for selected causes of death in South African (SA) adults aged ≥35 years for 2000, 2006 and 2012. We combined smoking prevalence results from 15 national surveys (1998 - 2017) and smoking impact ratios using national mortality rates. Relative risks between smoking and select causes of death were derived from local and international data. Results. Smoking prevalence declined from 25.0% in 1998 (40.5% in males, 10.9% in females) to 19.4% in 2012 (31.9% in males, 7.9% in females), but plateaued after 2010. In 2012 tobacco smoking caused an estimated 31 078 deaths (23 444 in males and 7 634 in females), accounting for 6.9% of total deaths of all ages (17.3% of deaths in adults aged ≥35 years), a 10.5% decline overall since 2000 (7% in males; 18% in females). Age-standardised mortality rates (and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) similarly declined in all population groups but remained high in the coloured population. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease accounted for most tobacco-attributed deaths (6 373), followed by lung cancer (4 923), ischaemic heart disease (4 216), tuberculosis (2 326) and lower respiratory infections (1 950). The distribution of major causes of smoking-attributable deaths shows a middle- to high-income pattern in whites and Asians, and a middle- to low-income pattern in coloureds and black Africans. The role of infectious lung disease (TB and LRIs) has been underappreciated. These diseases comprised 21.0% of deaths among black Africans compared with only 4.3% among whites. It is concerning that smoking rates have plateaued since 2010. Conclusion. The gains achieved in reducing smoking prevalence in SA have been eroded since 2010. An increase in excise taxes is the most effective measure for reducing smoking prevalence. The advent of serious respiratory pandemics such as COVID-19 has increased the urgency of considering the role that smoking cessation/abstinence can play in the prevention of, and post-hospital recovery from, any condition.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk of cardiovascular mortality, stroke and coronary heart mortality associated with aircraft noise around Congonhas airport, São Paulo, Brazil: a small-area study

BACKGROUND

Noise pollution is increasingly recognised as a public health hazard, yet limited evidence is available from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), particularly for specific sources. Here, we investigated the association between day-night average (Ldn) aircraft noise and the risk of death due to cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) at small-area level around São Paulo's Congonhas airport, Brazil during the period 2011-2016.

METHODS

We selected 3259 census tracts across 16 districts partially or entirely exposed to ≥50 dB aircraft noise levels around the Congonhas airport, using pre-modelled 5 dB Ldn noise  bands (≤50 dB to > 65 dB). We estimated the average noise exposure per census tract using area-weighting. Age, sex and calendar year-specific death counts for CVD, stroke and CHD were calculated by census tract, according to the residential address at time of death. We fitted Poisson regression models to quantify the risk associated with aircraft noise exposure, adjusting for age, sex, calendar year and area-level covariates including socioeconomic development, ethnicity, smoking and road traffic related noise and air pollution.

RESULTS

After accounting for all covariates, areas exposed to the highest levels of noise (> 65 dB) showed a relative risk (RR) for CVD and CHD of 1.06 (95% CI: 0.94; 1.20) and 1.11 (95%CI: 0.96; 1.27), respectively, compared to those exposed to reference noise levels (≤50 dB). The RR for stroke ranged between 1.05 (95%CI: 0.95;1.16) and 0.91 (95%CI: 0.78;1.11) for all the noise levels assessed. We found a statistically significant positive trend for CVD and CHD mortality risk with increasing levels of noise (p = 0.043 and p = 0.005, respectively). No significant linear trend was found for stroke. Risk estimates were generally higher after excluding road traffic density, suggesting that road traffic air and noise pollution are potentially important confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides some evidence that aircraft noise is associated with increased risk of CVD and CHD mortality in a middle-income setting. More research is needed to validate these results in other LMIC settings and to further explore the influence of residual confounding and ecological bias. Remarkably, 60% of the study population living near the Congonhas airport (~ 1.5 million) were exposed to aircraft noise levels > 50 dB, well above those recommended by the WHO (45 dB), highlighting the need for public health interventions.

Small-area methods for investigation of environment and health

Small-area studies offer a powerful epidemiological approach to study disease patterns at the population level and assess health risks posed by environmental pollutants. They involve a public health investigation on a geographical scale (e.g. neighbourhood) with overlay of health, environmental, demographic and potential confounder data. Recent methodological advances, including Bayesian approaches, combined with fast-growing computational capabilities, permit more informative analyses than previously possible, including the incorporation of data at different scales, from satellites to individual-level survey information. Better data availability has widened the scope and utility of small-area studies, but has also led to greater complexity, including choice of optimal study area size and extent, duration of study periods, range of covariates and confounders to be considered and dealing with uncertainty. The availability of data from large, well-phenotyped cohorts such as UK Biobank enables the use of mixed-level study designs and the triangulation of evidence on environmental risks from small-area and individual-level studies, therefore improving causal inference, including use of linked biomarker and -omics data. As a result, there are now improved opportunities to investigate the impacts of environmental risk factors on human health, particularly for the surveillance and prevention of non-communicable diseases.

Effects of stimulant drug use on the dopaminergic system: A systematic review and meta-analysis of in vivo neuroimaging studies

BACKGROUND

Stimulant drugs can cause persistent changes in the brain. Imaging studies show that these changes are most apparent in dopamine transporter (DAT) or receptor availability within the striatum.

METHODS

This work focuses on influences of stimulant use on dopaminergic function assessed using nuclear-medicine imaging (PET/SPECT). Included are 39 studies on 655 cocaine, amphetamine, methamphetamine or nicotine users, as well as 690 healthy controls. Metaanalyses were conducted separately for D2/D3 receptors and dopamine transporters of the entire striatum, its subregions caudate and putamen respectively.

RESULTS

Meta-analyses results regarding nicotine did not show significant effects between smokers and nonsmokers. In cocaine users there was a significant decrease in dopamine receptor availability in all regions. The striatal DAT availability was significantly increased in cocaine users. Methamphetamine users showed a significantly decreased dopamine receptor and transporter density in all regions. Significant results also indicate a lower transporter availability in all regions. Amphetamine users showed reduced DAT availability in the striatum, as well as in the sub regions.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis provides evidence that there are ongoing changes in the dopaminergic system associated with the use of stimulants. Especially the results of cocaine, methamphetamine and amphetamine use mainly showed a downregulation. In addition, this meta-analysis is the first to include nicotine. This subset of studies showed evidence for a decreased receptor and DAT availability but no significant results were found in the metaanalyses.

Risk of Coronary Heart Disease Among Smokeless Tobacco Users: Results of Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Global Data

BACKGROUND

Use of smokeless tobacco (SLT) products has been linked to multiple adverse effects, especially precancer and cancer of oral cavity. However, the association of SLT use with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is shrouded with controversy due to conflicting results in the literature. The present meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the risk of CHD among adult ever-users of SLT products along with sub-group analysis.

METHODS

The analysis included studies retrieved from a systematic literature search for published articles assessing risk of CHD with SLT use. Two authors independently extracted risk estimates and study characteristics of the included studies. Summary relative risks were estimated using the random-effect model.

RESULTS

Twenty studies from four WHO regions were included in the analysis. The summary risk of CHD in SLT users was not significantly positive (1.05, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.15) although a higher risk of fatal CHD was seen (1.10, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.20). The risk was significant for users in European Region (1.30, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.47). The results remained unchanged even after strict adjustment for smoking. Product-wise analysis revealed a significant positive association of fatal CHD with snus/snuff use (1.37, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.61). The SLT-attributable fraction of fatal CHD was calculated to be 0.3%, highest being for European region (5%).

CONCLUSION

A significant positive association was detected between SLT use and risk of fatal CHD, especially for European users and those consuming snus/snuff. In view of the positive association even after strict adjustment for smoking, these results underscore the need for inclusion of cessation efforts for smokeless tobacco in addition to smoking for control of fatal cardiovascular diseases.

IMPLICATIONS

The present meta-analysis demonstrates a global perspective of association between coronary heart disease (CHD) and use of smokeless tobacco (SLT), especially for fatal cardiac events, even with strict adjustment for smoking. There appears to be some difference in this effect based on the type of SLT product used. These results highlight the independent deleterious effect of SLT products on the outcome of CHD and might help to resolve the long-standing controversy regarding the association of SLT with the risk of CHD. Hence, we propose that in addition to smoking, cessation efforts should be directed towards SLT products as well, for control of cardiovascular diseases.

English on cigarette packs from six non-Anglophone low- and middle-income countries

OBJECTIVES

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are vital to the global tobacco market. The pack is key to cigarette branding, and review of cigarette packs revealed English as a common feature. The prevalence of English and its potential branding utility is explored.

METHODS

Every available unique cigarette pack was purchased from diverse retailers in six LMICs where English is not the official language (Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, Ukraine, Vietnam). Packs' front panels were coded for English on pack fronts. English penetration was quantified by country and a comparison of English use between multinational and national brands was undertaken. A qualitative analysis of symbolic and utilitarian usage of English was conducted.

RESULTS

Of 1303 unique cigarette packs analyzed, 67% (n = 876) included some English. English text conveyed product information and usage instruction. English was more prevalent for multinational brands. Qualitatively, English use frequently connected cigarettes with concepts of quality, style, luxury, and aspirational lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS

Restricting English use should be incorporated into plain packaging policy to protect populations from deceptive branding practices, specifically presenting cigarettes as an aspirational product.

Evaluation of the smoking intervention X:IT after the second year: A randomized controlled trial

Aims:Review studies on the long-term effects of school-based smoking interventions show mixed results. X:IT was a three-year cluster randomized controlled trial to prevent uptake of smoking among Danish students from age 13 years until age 15 years which previously proved effective in preventing smoking after the first year of intervention. The aim of this paper was to conduct the pre-planned analyses of the effects of the X:IT intervention on smoking after the second year. Methods: We used self-reported questionnaire data from students at baseline, first, second, and third follow-up (n at second follow-up=3269, response rate=79.4%). Data from third follow-up were not suitable for analysis. Outcome measure: 'current smoking', dichotomised into smoke daily, weekly, monthly or more seldom versus do not smoke. We performed multilevel, logistic regression analyses of available cases and intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses, replacing missing outcome values by multiple imputation. Results: The prevalence of smoking increased from 5.8% at baseline to 17.0% at second follow-up among students at intervention schools, and from 7.6% to 18.7% among students at control schools. Analyses of available cases and ITT analyses did not support X:IT being effective in preventing smoking after the second year of intervention. Conclusions: Although X:IT was effective after the first year of intervention, we were not able to demonstrate any effects after the second year. Implementation of the intervention was lower in the second year compared to the first year which indicates that the missing effect of the intervention at second follow-up is due to lack of implementation.

Violation of the Tobacco Control Law by Drivers in Vehicles in Two Streets in İzmir: A Descriptive Study

OBJECTIVES

After signing and approving the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), Turkey amended laws on tobacco control in 2008 and also expanded the smoking ban in 2013 to include drivers in all vehicles. Four years later, this amendment does not seem as effective. The aim of this study was to observe violation of the law by the drivers and to analyze the association between gender of the driver, type of the vehicle, approximate age group definition of the passenger (either child or adult), and the law violation in two streets in Konak district, İzmir, Turkey.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, two observer teams were located in two different busy streets on the same afternoon and they collected data on the violation of the law, gender of the driver, approximate age group definition of the passengers (either adult or child), and type of the vehicle (special, taxi, or other commercial). Logistic regression for the violation of the law was conducted.

RESULTS

Law violation prevalence is 7.2%. In univariate analysis, the gender of the driver and having at least one child as a passenger were associated with the violation of the law. In multivariate analysis, not having children increases (OR: 8.4) the risk of the violation of the law.

CONCLUSION

The violation of the law was high, but the drivers seemed to be aware of the harms of smoking by looking at the increased risk of the violation in vehicles, in which no child was carried as passengers.

How tobacco companies have used package quantity for consumer targeting

INTRODUCTION

Package quantity refers to the number of cigarettes or amount of other tobacco product in a package. Many countries restrict minimum cigarette package quantities to avoid low-cost packs that may lower barriers to youth smoking.

METHODS

We reviewed Truth Tobacco Industry Documents to understand tobacco companies' rationales for introducing new package quantities, including companies' expectations and research regarding how package quantity may influence consumer behaviour. A snowball sampling method (phase 1), a static search string (phase 2) and a follow-up snowball search (phase 3) identified 216 documents, mostly from the 1980s and 1990s, concerning cigarettes (200), roll-your-own tobacco (9), smokeless tobacco (6) and 'smokeless cigarettes' (1).

RESULTS

Companies introduced small and large packages to motivate brand-switching and continued use among current users when faced with low market share or threats such as tax-induced price increases or competitors' use of price promotions. Companies developed and evaluated package quantities for specific brands and consumer segments. Large packages offered value-for-money and matched long-term, heavy users' consumption rates. Small packages were cheaper, matched consumption rates of newer and lighter users, and increased products' novelty, ease of carrying and perceived freshness. Some users also preferred small packages as a way to try to limit consumption or quit.

CONCLUSION

Industry documents speculated about many potential effects of package quantity on appeal and use, depending on brand and consumer segment. The search was non-exhaustive, and we could not assess the quality of much of the research or other information on which the documents relied.

Influence of premium vs masked cigarette brand names on the experienced taste of a cigarette after tobacco plain packaging in Australia: an experimental study

Background

Few studies have experimentally assessed the contribution of branding to the experience of smoking a cigarette, compared with the inherent properties of the product. This study examined the influence of cigarette brand name on the sensory experience of smoking a cigarette.

Methods

Seventy-five Australian smokers aged 18–39 years smoked two ‘premium’ cigarettes, one with the brand variant name shown and one with the brand variant name masked (which provided ‘objective’ ratings). Unknown to participants, the two cigarettes were identical. At recruitment, participants rated their expected enjoyment, quality and harshness of several premium cigarette brands.

Results

Branded cigarettes were rated as having a significantly more favorable taste (M(SE) = 64.14(2.21)) than masked cigarettes (M(SE) = 58.53(2.26), p = .031). Branded cigarettes were also rated as being less stale (M(SE) = 36.04(2.62)) than masked cigarettes (M(SE) = 43.90(2.60), p = .011). Purchase intent tended to be higher among those shown the branded cigarette compared to the masked cigarette (χ² (1) = 3.00, p = .083). Expected enjoyment and quality of the brand variant (enjoyment: b = 0.31, 95%CI = 0.11, 0.51, p < .01; quality: b = 0.46, 95%CI = 0.21, 0.72, p < .01) contributed to the perceived smoking experience more than the objective enjoyment and quality of the cigarette (enjoyment: b = 0.23, 95%CI = 0.05, 0.41, p < .05; quality: b = 0.08, 95%CI = − 0.13, 0.30, p > .05). This pattern was not observed for cigarette harshness.

Conclusions

A premium brand variant name can enhance the subjective experience of a cigarette. Further, smokers’ expectations of such brand variants contribute to the smoking experience as much, if not more than, the actual qualities of the product.

Risks for tuberculosis in Kazakhstan: implications for prevention

SETTING

Four regions in Kazakhstan where participants were recruited from June 2012 to May 2014.

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations between incarceration history and tobacco, alcohol, and drug consumption, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and diabetes mellitus (DM) with TB.

DESIGN

This matched case-control study included 1600 participants who completed a survey on sociodemographics, history of incarceration, tobacco, alcohol and drug use, and HIV and DM diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to examine associations between a TB diagnosis and risk factors.

RESULTS

Participants who had ever smoked tobacco (aOR 1.73, 95%CI 1.23-2.43, P  0.01), ever drank alcohol (aOR 1.41, 95%CI 1.03-1.93, P  0.05), were HIV-positive (aOR 36.37, 95%CI 2.05-646.13, P  0.05) or had DM (aOR 13.96, 95%CI 6.37-30.56, P  0.01) were more likely to have TB.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between TB and tobacco use, alcohol use, HIV and DM in Kazakhstan suggests a need for comprehensive intervention and prevention approaches that also address tobacco and alcohol use, DM and HIV.

Promotions on Newport and Marlboro Cigarette Packages: A National Study

Introduction

While cigarette pack designs are part of integrated marketing efforts, it is unclear the degree to which packs are used to advertise promotions and whether the tobacco retailers' neighborhood characteristics influence the likelihood and type of pack-based promotion in the United States.

Methods

Between June and October 2012, data collectors purchased packs of either Marlboro Red (n = 1090) or Newport Green (n = 1057) cigarettes at 2147 stores that were part of a national sample of tobacco retailers in the contiguous US. Coders rated packs for the presence of an exterior and interior pack promotion, placement of exterior promotion (eg, front, back), presentation of exterior promotion (eg, onsert, tear strip), and nature of the promotion (eg, contest/give/away). Using Census tract data, we examined the association of pack promotions with tobacco retailers' neighborhood demographic characteristics.

Results

Marlboro packs were approximately twice as likely to have promotions as Newport packs (31.7% vs. 14.7%). Fewer Marlboro packs (14.6%) and no Newport packs had interior promotions. The majority of exterior promotions were for contests (>80% for both brands), while almost all interior Marlboro promotions (97.5%) were for a discounted price. There were few differences in presence or type of promotion by tobacco retailers' neighborhood characteristics.

Conclusions

Exterior packs promotions, in particular, were fairly common and may contribute to the allure of tobacco products.

Implications

Use of promotions on the interior and exterior of cigarette packs are a mechanism that the tobacco industry uses to sell its products and should be continually assessed for their influence on consumer behavior.

Lung Cancer Risk and Residential Exposure to Air Pollution: A Korean Population-Based Case-Control Study

PURPOSE

To investigate the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and lung cancer incidence in Koreans.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a population-based case-control study covering 908 lung cancer patients and 908 controls selected from a random sample of people within each Korean province and matched according to age, sex, and smoking status. We developed land-use regression models to estimate annual residential exposure to particulate matter (PM₁₀) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) over a 20-year exposure period. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Increases in lung cancer incidence (expressed as adjusted OR) were 1.09 (95% CI: 0.96-1.23) with a ten-unit increase in PM₁₀ (μg/m³) and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.00-1.22) with a ten-unit increase in NO₂ (ppb). Tendencies for stronger associations between air pollution and lung cancer incidence were noted among never smokers, among those with low fruit consumption, and among those with a higher education level. Air pollution was more strongly associated with squamous cell and small cell carcinomas than with adenocarcinoma of the lung.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that PM10 and NO₂ contribute to lung cancer incidence in Korea.

Widening Life Expectancy Advantage of Hispanics in the United States: 1990-2010

We examine trends in the Hispanic longevity advantage between 1990 and 2010, focusing on the contribution of cigarette smoking. We calculate life expectancy at age 50 for Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites between 1990 and 2010. We use an indirect method to calculate the contribution of smoking to changes over time in life expectancy. Among women, the Hispanic advantage in life expectancy grows from 2.14 years in 1990 (95 % CI 1.99-2.30 years) to 3.53 years in 2010 (3.42-3.64 years). More than 40 % of this increase reflects widening differences in smoking-attributable mortality. The advantage for Hispanic men increases from 2.27 years (2.14-2.41 years) to 2.91 years (2.81-3.01 years), although smoking makes only a small contribution. Despite persistent disadvantage, US Hispanics have increased their longevity advantage over non-Hispanic whites since 1990, much of which reflects the continuing importance of cigarette smoking to the Hispanic advantage.

Burden of Disease Attributable to Secondhand Smoking in Korea

This study aims to estimate the burden of disease (BOD) due to secondhand smoking (SHS) in Korea. SHS-related diseases were selected via systematic review. Population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated by using standard formula. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated using Statistical Office and Health Insurance data. SHS burden was calculated by multiplying nonsmoker’s BOD with the PAF of SHS. Total BOD due to SHS was 44 143 DALYs with 57% from males and 43% from females. The highest percentage of SHS burden was due to stroke. BOD was highest in the 50s age group in both genders. Years of life lost contributed major part of BOD due to all diseases. SHS burden in Korea in 2013 was the highest among the high-income Asia Pacific group countries. Effective intervention policies with more focus on vulnerable groups like adults in their 50s should be implemented to control SHS-related burden.

The impact of cigarette smoking on life expectancy between 1980 and 2010: a global perspective

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco smoking is among the leading causes of preventable mortality worldwide. We assessed the impact of smoking on life expectancy worldwide between 1980 and 2010.

METHODS

We retrieved cause-specific mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database by sex, year and age for 63 countries with high or moderate quality data (1980-2010). Using the time of the peak of the smoking epidemic by country, relative risks from the three waves of the Cancer Prevention Study were applied to calculate the smoking impact ratio and population attributable fraction. Finally, we estimated the potential gain in life expectancy at age 40 if smoking-related deaths in middle age (40-79 years) were eliminated.

RESULTS

Currently, tobacco smoking is related to approximately 20% of total adult mortality in the countries in this study (24% in men and 12% in women). If smoking-related deaths were eliminated, adult life expectancy would increase on average by 2.4 years in men (0.1 in Uzbekistan to 4.8 years in Hungary) and 1 year in women (0.1 in Kyrgyzstan to 2.9 years in the USA). The proportion of smoking-related mortality among men has declined in most countries, but has increased in the most populous country in the world, that is, China from 4.6% to 7.3%. Increases in the impact of tobacco on life expectancy were observed among women in high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent trends indicate a substantial rise in the population-level impact of tobacco smoking on life expectancy in women and in middle-income countries. High-quality local data are needed in most low-income countries.

Population Attributable and Preventable Fractions: Cancer Risk Factor Surveillance, and Cancer Policy Projection

The proportions of new cancer cases and deaths that are caused by exposure to risk factors and that could be prevented are key statistics for public health policy and planning. This paper summarizes the methodologies for estimating, challenges in the analysis of, and utility of, population attributable and preventable fractions for cancers caused by major risk factors such as tobacco smoking, dietary factors, high body fat, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, infectious agents, occupational exposure, air pollution, sun exposure, and insufficient breastfeeding. For population attributable and preventable fractions, evidence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and cancer, outcome (such as incidence and mortality), exposure distribution, relative risk, theoretical-minimum-risk, and counterfactual scenarios need to be clearly defined and congruent. Despite limitations of the methodology and the data used for estimations, the population attributable and preventable fractions are a useful tool for public health policy and planning.

Pollutional haze as a potential cause of lung cancer

Along with fast economic growth over the past few decades, the world is faced with cumulatively serious environmental pollution and now is paying increased attention to pollutional haze. In the last few years, multiple epidemiological studies and animal models have provided compelling evidences that inhalation of pollutional haze could be linked to several adverse health effects. Since the respiratory tract is the crucial passageway of entry of pollutional haze, the lung is the main affected organ. Therefore, here, we reviewed some of the important information around long-term exposure to pollutional haze and lung cancer, as well as highlight important roles of pollutional haze in human lung carcinogenesis, providing evidence for pollutional haze acting as another risk factor for lung cancer.

Effects of Cigarette Smoking on Plasma Concentration of the Appetite-Regulating Peptide Ghrelin

BACKGROUND

Weight gain is a common but only a partially understood consequence of smoking cessation. Existing data suggest modulating effects of the orexigenic peptide ghrelin on food intake. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of tobacco withdrawal on plasma concentration of acetylated and total ghrelin.

METHODS

Fifty four normal-weighted smokers and 30 non-smoking healthy controls were enrolled in our study. Concentrations of acetylated and total ghrelin were measured in blood plasma drawn two hours after a standardized meal and three hours after the smokers smoked their last cigarette. The severity of tobacco addiction was assessed based on cotinine plasma concentration, the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) and the number of cigarettes smoked per day.

RESULTS

The plasma concentration of acetylated ghrelin, but not total ghrelin, was significantly higher in smokers than in non-smokers. Moreover, we found significant negative correlations between acetylated ghrelin and all measures of the severity of nicotine dependence.

CONCLUSIONS

Early abstinence from tobacco smoking seems to be associated with increased plasma concentration of the orexigenic peptide acetylated ghrelin. This could be one reason for increased food craving during nicotine withdrawal and subsequent weight gain. Smokers might compensate these effects by increasing tobacco intake.

The enduring effects of smoking in Latin America

OBJECTIVES

We estimated smoking-attributable mortality, assessed the impact of past smoking on recent mortality, and computed expected future losses in life expectancy caused by past and current smoking behavior in Latin America and the Caribbean.

METHODS

We used a regression-based procedure to estimate smoking-attributable mortality and information for 6 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay) for the years 1980 through 2009 contained in the Latin American Mortality Database (LAMBdA). These countries jointly comprise more than two thirds of the adult population in Latin America and the Caribbean and have the region's highest rates of smoking prevalence.

RESULTS

During the last 10 years, the impact of smoking was equivalent to losses in male (aged ≥ 50 years) life expectancy of about 2 to 6 years. These effects are likely to increase, particularly for females, both in the study countries and in those that joined the epidemic at later dates.

CONCLUSIONS

Unless innovations in the detection and treatment of chronic diseases are introduced soon, continued gains in adult survival in Latin America and the Caribbean region may slow down considerably.

The future of smoking-attributable mortality: the case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands

AIMS

We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model.

METHODS

We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality.

FINDINGS

The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44 872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16 385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38 883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women.

CONCLUSIONS

From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes.

The role of smoking in changes in the survival curve: an empirical study in 10 European countries

PURPOSE

We examined the role of smoking in the two dimensions behind the time trends in adult mortality in European countries, that is, rectangularization of the survival curve (mortality compression) and longevity extension (increase in the age-at-death).

METHODS

Using data on national sex-specific populations aged 50 years and older from Denmark, Finland, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, we studied trends in life expectancy, rectangularity, and longevity from 1950 to 2009 for both all-cause and nonsmoking-related mortality and correlated them with trends in lifetime smoking prevalence.

RESULTS

For all-cause mortality, rectangularization accelerated around 1980 among men in all the countries studied, and more recently among women in Denmark and the United Kingdom. Trends in lifetime smoking prevalence correlated negatively with both rectangularization and longevity extension, but more negatively with rectangularization. For nonsmoking-related mortality, rectangularization among men did not accelerate around 1980. Among women, the differences between all-cause mortality and nonsmoking-related mortality were small, but larger for rectangularization than for longevity extension. Rectangularization contributed less to the increase in life expectancy than longevity extension, especially for nonsmoking-related mortality among men.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking affects rectangularization more than longevity extension, both among men and women.

Smoking-attributable mortality in Morocco: results of a prevalence-based study in Casablanca

BACKGROUND

Tobacco control measurements' had little impact on smoking prevalence in Morocco. The aim of this study is to provide first data on smoking attributable mortality in Morocco.

METHOD

The Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Morbidity and Economic Costs (SAMMEC) software was used to estimate the smoking attributable mortality (SAM) in Casablanca region in 2012. Smoking prevalence and mortality data of people aged 35 years or older were obtained from the national survey on tobacco "Marta" and from Health Ministry Mortality System, respectively.

RESULTS

Of the 5261deaths of persons aged 35 years and older, 508 (9.7%) were attributable to cigarette smoking. This total represents 16.2% of all male deaths (n =448) and 2.0% (n =80) of all female deaths in this region. The leading four causes of smoking attributable deaths were lung cancer (177), chronic airways obstruction (76), ischemic heart disease (39), and cerebrovascular disease (31).

CONCLUSION

Tobacco use caused one out of six deaths in Casablanca in 2012. Four leading causes (lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and chronic airways obstruction,) accounted for 51.6% of SAM. Effective and comprehensive actions must be taken in order to slow this epidemic in Morocco.

Mortality attributable to tobacco: review of different methods

BACKGROUND

One of the most important measures for ascertaining the impact of tobacco is the estimation of the mortality attributable to its use. Several indirect methods of quantification are available. The objective of the article is to assess methodologies published and applied in calculating mortality attributable to smoking.

METHODS

A review of the literature was made for the period 1998 to 2005, in the electronic databases MEDLINE. Twelve articles were selected for analysis.

RESULTS

The most widely used methods were the prevalence methods, followed by smoking impact ration method. Ezzati and Lopez showed that the general rate of Smoking attributable mortality (SAM) globally was 12% (18% in men). Across countries, attributable fractions of total adult deaths ranged from 8% in Southern Africa, 13.6% in Brazil (18.1% in men) and 25% in Hong Kong (33% in men).

CONCLUSION

The variations can be attributed to methodological differences and to different estimates of the main tobacco-related illnesses and tobacco prevalence. All methods show limitations of one type or another, yet there is no consensus as to which furnishes the best information.

A cross-sectional study examining youth smoking rates and correlates in Tbilisi, Georgia

Georgia has high smoking rates; however, little is known about the prevalence and correlates of youth smoking. We conducted a secondary data analysis of a 2010 cross-sectional survey of 1,879 secondary and postsecondary school students aged 15 to 24 years in Tbilisi, Georgia, examining substance use, perceived risk, and recreational activities in relation to lifetime and current (past 30 days) smoking. Lifetime and current smoking prevalence was 46.1% and 22.6%, respectively. In secondary schools, lifetime smoking correlates included being male, consuming alcohol, lifetime marijuana use, and lower perceived risk (P's ≤ .001). Correlates of current smoking among lifetime smokers included being male, consuming alcohol, lifetime marijuana use, lower perceived risk, less frequently exercise, and more often going out (P's < .05). In postsecondary schools, lifetime smoking correlates included being male, consuming alcohol, lifetime marijuana use, lower perceived risk, more often going out, and recreational internet use (P's < .0). Correlates of current smoking among lifetime smokers included being male (P's = .04), consuming alcohol, marijuana use, lower perceived risk, and more often going out (P's < .05). Tobacco control interventions might target these correlates to reduce smoking prevalence in Georgian youth.

Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections

We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e 0) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970-2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e 0 (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e 0 for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e 0 in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.

A qualitative exploration of young adult smokers' responses to novel tobacco warnings

Background

Despite reduced smoking among adolescents, smoking prevalence peaks among young adults aged 18–30, many of whom believe themselves exempt from the health risks of smoking shown in warning labels. We explored how young adult smokers perceived warnings featuring proximal risks, and whether these encouraged cessation more effectively than traditional health messages.

Methods

We conducted in-depth interviews with 17 young adult smokers and explored their perceptions of current warnings as well as novel warnings representing short-term health consequences; immediate social risks, and tobacco’s toxicity (denormalizing tobacco as an everyday product). We used a thematic analysis approach to explore how participants rationalized existing warnings and interpreted the novel messages.

Results

Participants considered the immediate social and physiological benefits they gained from smoking outweighed the distal risks shown in health warnings, which they regarded as improbable and irrelevant. Of the novel warnings, those presenting immediate social risks altered the balance of gains and losses young adults associated with smoking; however, those presenting short-term health risks or depicting tobacco as a toxin were less effective.

Conclusions

Participants regarded warnings featuring proximal social risks as more salient and they were less likely to rationalise these as irrelevant. Social risk messages merit further investigation to examine their potential as a complement to traditional health warnings.

The cost-effectiveness of call-back counselling for smoking cessation

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of the Quitline, a call-back counselling service for smoking cessation, in the states of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis using a deterministic Markov model, and cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted over a lifetime as the outcome measure.

POPULATION

Current smokers, motivated to quit.

RESULTS

Call-back counselling for smoking cessation provided by the Quitline is an intervention that both improves health with additional quitters, and achieves net cost savings due to the cost offsets being greater than the cost of the intervention. If cost offsets are excluded, the cost per quitter is $A773 (95% uncertainty interval $A769$-$A779), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is $A294 per DALY (95% uncertainty interval $A293-$A298).

CONCLUSIONS

Call-back counselling is a cost-effective intervention for smoking cessation that can be provided by a centralised service for a large population, and to reach people in isolated communities.

Smoking cessation and desire to stop smoking in nine countries of the former Soviet Union

INTRODUCTION

Smoking rates and corresponding levels of premature mortality from smoking-related diseases in the former Soviet Union (fSU) are among the highest in the world. To reduce this health burden, greater focus on smoking cessation is needed, but little is currently known about rates and characteristics of cessation in the fSU.

METHODS

Nationally representative household survey data from a cross-sectional study of 18,000 respondents in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine were analyzed to describe patterns of desire and action taken to stop smoking, quit ratios (former ever-smokers as a percent of ever-smokers, without a specified recall period), and help used to stop smoking. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze characteristics associated with smoking cessation and desire to stop smoking.

RESULTS

Quit ratios varied from 10.5% in Azerbaijan to 37.6% in Belarus. About 67.2% of respondents expressed a desire to quit, and 64.9% had taken action and tried to stop. The use of help to quit was extremely low (12.6%). Characteristics associated with cessation included being female, over 60, with higher education, poorer health, lower alcohol dependency, higher knowledge of tobacco's health effects, and support for tobacco control. Characteristics associated with desire to stop smoking among current smokers included younger age, poorer health, greater knowledge of tobacco's health effects, and support for tobacco control.

CONCLUSIONS

Quit ratios are low in the fSU but there is widespread desire to stop smoking. Stronger tobacco control and cessation support are urgently required to reduce smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality.

Health and health systems in the Commonwealth of Independent States

The countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States differ substantially in their post-Soviet economic development but face many of the same challenges to health and health systems. Life expectancies dropped steeply in the 1990s, and several countries have yet to recover the levels noted before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Cardiovascular disease is a much bigger killer in the Commonwealth of Independent States than in western Europe because of hazardous alcohol consumption and high smoking rates in men, the breakdown of social safety nets, rising social inequality, and inadequate health services. These former Soviet countries have embarked on reforms to their health systems, often aiming to strengthen primary care, scale back hospital capacities, reform mechanisms for paying providers and pooling funds, and address the overall shortage of public funding for health. However, major challenges remain, such as frequent private out-of-pocket payments for health care and underdeveloped systems for improvement of quality of care.

A prospective study of tobacco smoking and mortality in Bangladesh

Background

Limited data are available on smoking-related mortality in low-income countries, where both chronic disease burden and prevalence of smoking are increasing.

Methods

Using data on 20, 033 individuals in the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Bangladesh, we prospectively evaluated the association between tobacco smoking and all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease mortality during ∼7.6 years of follow-up.

Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for deaths from all-cause, cancer, CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke, in relation to status, duration, and intensity of cigarette/bidi and hookah smoking.

Results

Among men, cigarette/bidi smoking was positively associated with all-cause (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.06 1.86) and cancer mortality (HR 2.91, 1.24 6.80), and there was a dose-response relationship between increasing intensity of cigarette/bidi consumption and increasing mortality. An elevated risk of death from ischemic heart disease (HR 1.87, 1.08 3.24) was associated with current cigarette/bidi smoking. Among women, the corresponding HRs were 1.65 (95% CI 1.16 2.36) for all-cause mortality and 2.69 (95% CI 1.20 6.01) for ischemic heart disease mortality. Similar associations were observed for hookah smoking. There was a trend towards reduced risk for the mortality outcomes with older age at onset of cigarette/bidi smoking and increasing years since quitting cigarette/bibi smoking among men. We estimated that cigarette/bidi smoking accounted for about 25.0% of deaths in men and 7.6% in women.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking was responsible for substantial proportion of premature deaths in the Bangladeshi population, especially among men. Stringent measures of tobacco control and cessation are needed to reduce tobacco-related deaths in Bangladesh.

Smoking water-pipe, chewing nass and prevalence of heart disease: a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the Golestan Cohort Study, Iran

OBJECTIVE

Water-pipe and smokeless tobacco use have been associated with several adverse health outcomes. However, little information is available on the association between water-pipe use and heart disease (HD). Therefore, we investigated the association of smoking water-pipe and chewing nass (a mixture of tobacco, lime and ash) with prevalent HD.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Baseline data (collected in 2004-2008) from a prospective population-based study in Golestan Province, Iran.

PARTICIPANTS

50 045 residents of Golestan (40-75 years old; 42.4% men).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

ORs and 95% CIs from multivariate logistic regression models for the association of water-pipe and nass use with HD prevalence.

RESULTS

A total of 3051 (6.1%) participants reported a history of HD, and 525 (1.1%) and 3726 (7.5%) reported ever water-pipe or nass use, respectively. Heavy water-pipe smoking was significantly associated with HD prevalence (highest level of cumulative use vs never use, OR=3.75; 95% CI 1.52 to 9.22; p for trend=0.04). This association persisted when using different cut-off points, when restricting HD to those taking nitrate compound medications, and among never cigarette smokers. There was no significant association between nass use and HD prevalence (highest category of use vs never use, OR=0.91; 95% CI 0.69 to 1.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests a significant association between HD and heavy water-pipe smoking. Although the existing evidence suggesting similar biological consequences of water-pipe and cigarette smoking make this association plausible, results of our study were based on a modest number of water-pipe users and need to be replicated in further studies.

Insula-specific H magnetic resonance spectroscopy reactions in heavy smokers under acute nicotine withdrawal and after oral nicotine substitution

The aim of this study was to clarify whether addiction-specific neurometabolic reaction patterns occur in the insular cortex during acute nicotine withdrawal in tobacco smokers in comparison to nonsmokers. Fourteen male smokers and 10 male nonsmokers were included. Neurometabolites of the right and the left insular cortices were quantified by magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) on a 3-Tesla scanner. Three separate MRS measurements were performed in each subject: among the smokers, the first measurement was done during normal smoking behavior, the second measurement during acute withdrawal (after 24 h of smoking abstinence), and the third shortly after administration of an oral nicotine substitute. Simultaneously, craving, withdrawal symptoms, and CO levels in exhaled air were determined during the three phases. The participants in the control group underwent the same MR protocol. In the smokers, during withdrawal, the insular cortex showed a significant increase in glutamine (Gln; p = 0.023) as well as a slight increase not reaching significance for glutamine/glutamate (Glx; p = 0.085) and a nonsignificant drop in myoinositol (mI; p = 0.381). These values tended to normalize after oral nicotine substitution treatment, even though differences were not significant: Gln (p = 0.225), Glx (p = 0.107) and mI (p = 0.810). Overall, the nonsmokers (control group) did not show any metabolic changes over all three phases (p > 0.05). In smokers, acute nicotine withdrawal produces a neurometabolic reaction pattern that is partly reversed by the administration of an oral nicotine substitute. The results are consistent with the expression of an addiction-specific neurometabolic shift in the brain and confirm the fact that the insular cortex seems to play a possible role in nicotine dependence.

Analysing compliance of cigarette packaging with the FCTC and national legislation in eight former Soviet countries

AIM

To analyse compliance of cigarette packets with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and national legislation and the policy actions that are required in eight former Soviet Union countries.

METHODS

We obtained cigarette packets of each of the 10 most smoked cigarette brands in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. The packets were then analysed using a standardised data collection instrument. The analysis included the placing, size and content of health warning labels and deceptive labels (eg, 'Lights'). Findings were assessed for compliance with the FCTC and national legislation.

RESULTS

Health warnings were on all packets from all countries and met the FCTC minimum recommendations on size and position except Azerbaijan and Georgia. All countries used a variety of warnings except Azerbaijan. No country had pictorial health warnings, despite them being mandatory in Georgia and Moldova. All of the countries had deceptive labels despite being banned in all countries except Russia and Azerbaijan where still no such legislation exists.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite progress in the use of health warning messages, gaps still remain-particularly with the use of deceptive labels. Stronger surveillance and enforcement mechanisms are required to improve compliance with the FCTC and national legislation.

A cross-sectional analysis of how young adults perceive tobacco brands: implications for FCTC signatories

BACKGROUND

The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control calls for the elimination of tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship. To test whether tobacco packaging functions as advertising by communicating attractive and distinctive brand attributes, we explored how young adult smokers and non-smokers interpreted familiar and unfamiliar tobacco brands.

METHODS

We conducted an on-line survey of 1035 young adult smokers and non-smokers aged 18-30. Participants evaluated eight tobacco brands using ten attributes based on brand personality scales. We used factor analysis and ANOVA to examine patterns in brand-attribute associations.

RESULTS

Young adults distinguished between brands on the basis of their packaging alone, associated each brand with specific attributes, and were equally able to interpret familiar and unfamiliar brands. Contrary to our expectations, non-smokers made more favourable brand-attribute associations than smokers, but both groups described Basic, a near generic brand, as 'plain' or 'budget'. There were no significant gender or ethnicity differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco packaging uses logos, colours and imagery to create desirable connotations that promote and reinforce smoking. By functioning in the same way as advertising, on-pack branding breaches Article 13 of the FCTC and refutes tobacco companies' claims that pack livery serves only as an indentifying device that simplifies smokers' decision-making. Given this evidence, signatories should see plain packaging policies as a priority consistent with their FCTC obligations to eliminate all tobacco advertising and promotion.

Estimating smoking-attributable mortality in the United States

Tobacco use is the largest single cause of premature death in the developed world. Two methods of estimating the number of deaths attributable to smoking use mortality from lung cancer as an indicator of the damage from smoking. We re-estimate the coefficients of one of these, the Preston/Glei/Wilmoth model, using recent data from U.S. states. We calculate smoking-attributable fractions for the 50 states and the United States as a whole in 2004, and estimate the contribution of smoking to the high adult mortality of the southern states. We estimate that 21% of deaths among men and 17% among women were attributable to smoking in 2004. Across states, attributable fractions range from 11% to 30% among men and from 7% to 23% among women. Smoking-related mortality also explains as much as 60% of the mortality disadvantage of southern states compared with other regions. At the national level, our estimates are in close agreement with those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Preston/Glei/Wilmoth, particularly for men, although we find greater variability by state than does CDC. We suggest that our coefficients are suitable for calculating smoking-attributable mortality in contexts with relatively mature epidemics of cigarette smoking.

Knowledge of the health impacts of smoking and public attitudes towards tobacco control in the former Soviet Union

AIMS

To describe levels of knowledge on the harmful effects of tobacco and public support for tobacco control measures in nine countries of the former Soviet Union and to examine the characteristics associated with this knowledge and support.

METHODS

Standardised, cross-sectional nationally representative surveys conducted in 2010/2011 with 18 000 men and women aged 18 years and older in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. Respondents were asked a range of questions on their knowledge of the health effects of tobacco and their support for a variety of tobacco control measures. Descriptive analysis was conducted on levels of knowledge and support, along with multivariate logistic regression analysis of characteristics associated with overall knowledge and support scores.

RESULTS

Large gaps exist in public understanding of the negative health effects of tobacco use, particularly in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Moldova. There are also extremely high levels of misunderstanding about the potential effects of 'light' cigarettes. However, there is popular support for tobacco control measures. Over three quarters of the respondents felt that their governments could be more effective in pursuing tobacco control. Higher levels of education, social capital (membership of an organisation) and being a former or never-smoker were associated with higher knowledge on the health effects of tobacco and/or being more supportive of tobacco control measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing public awareness of tobacco's health effects is essential for informed decision-making by individuals and for further increasing public support for tobacco control measures.

Changes in smoking prevalence in 8 countries of the former Soviet Union between 2001 and 2010

OBJECTIVES

We sought to present new data on smoking prevalence in 8 countries, analyze prevalence changes between 2001 and 2010, and examine trend variance by age, location, education level, and household economic status.

METHODS

We conducted cross-sectional household surveys in 2010 in Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. We compared smoking prevalence with a related 2001 study for the different countries and population subgroups, and also calculated the adjusted prevalence rate ratios of smoking.

RESULTS

All-age 2010 smoking prevalence among men ranged from 39% (Moldova) to 59% (Armenia), and among women from 2% (Armenia) to 16% (Russia). There was a significantly lower smoking prevalence among men in 2010 compared with 2001 in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, but not for women in any country. For all countries combined, there was a significantly lower smoking prevalence in 2010 than in 2001 for men aged 18 to 39 years and men with a good or average economic situation.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking prevalence appears to have stabilized and may be declining in younger groups, but remains extremely high among men, especially those in lower socioeconomic groups.

Prevalence and psychosocial determinants of nicotine dependence in nine countries of the former Soviet Union

INTRODUCTION

Despite the high prevalence of smoking in the former Soviet Union (fSU), particularly among men, there is very little information on nicotine dependence in the region. The study aim was to describe the prevalence of nicotine dependence in 9 countries of the fSU and to examine the psychosocial factors associated with nicotine dependence.

METHODS

Cross-sectional, nationally representative surveys using multistage random sampling were conducted in 2010 with men and women aged 18 years and over in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. The main outcome of interest was nicotine dependence using the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence. Multivariate regression analysis was then used to explore the influence of a range of psychosocial factors on higher nicotine dependence.

RESULTS

Mean nicotine dependence among men in the region as a whole was 3.96, with high dependence ranging from 17% in Belarus to 40% in Georgia. Among women, mean dependence was 2.96, with a prevalence of high dependence of 11% for the region. Gender (men), younger age of first smoking, lower education level, not being a member of an organization, bad household economic situation, high alcohol dependence, and high psychological distress showed significant associations with higher nicotine dependence.

CONCLUSIONS

High nicotine dependence among men was recorded in a number of study countries. Findings highlight the need for tobacco programmes to target early age smokers and less educated and poorer groups and suggest common ground for programmes seeking to reduce nicotine dependence, harmful alcohol use, and psychological distress.

National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

Background

Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and high body mass index (BMI) on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods.

Methods

We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework.

Results

In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000) deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000) deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9) and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9) in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions.

Discussion

Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran. Interventions for other metabolic risk factors and smoking can also improve population health.

How many deaths are attributable to smoking in the United States? Comparison of methods for estimating smoking-attributable mortality when smoking prevalence changes

BACKGROUND

The number of smoking-attributable deaths is commonly estimated using current and former smoking prevalences or lung cancer mortality as an indirect metric of cumulative population smoking. Neither method accounts for differences in the timing with which relative risks (RRs) for different diseases change following smoking initiation and cessation. We aimed to develop a method to account for time-dependent RRs.

METHODS

We used birth cohort lung cancer mortality and its change over time to characterize time-varying cumulative smoking exposure. We analyzed data from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II to estimate RRs for disease-specific mortality associated with current and former smoking, and change in RRs over time after cessation.

RESULTS

When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 254,700 male and 227,000 female deaths were attributed to smoking in the US in 2005. A modified method in which RRs for different diseases decreased at different rates after cessation yielded similar but slightly lower estimates [251,900 (male) and 221,100 (female)]. The lowest estimates resulted from the method based on smoking prevalence [225,800 (male) and 163,700 (female)].

CONCLUSIONS

Although all methods estimated a large number of smoking attributable deaths, future efforts should account for temporal changes in smoking prevalence and in accumulation/reversibility of disease-specific risks.

Psychological and hormonal features of smokers at risk to gain weight after smoking cessation--results of a multicenter study

Preclinical and clinical data suggest modulating effects of appetite-regulating hormones and stress perception on food intake. Nicotine intake also interferes with regulation of body weight. Especially following smoking cessation gaining weight is a common but only partially understood consequence. The aim of this study was to examine the interaction between smoking habits, the appetite regulating hormone leptin, negative affectivity, and stress vulnerability on eating behavior in a clinical case-control study under standardized conditions. In a large population-based study sample, we compared leptin and cortisol plasma concentrations (radioimmunoassay) between current tobacco smokers with high cognitive restraint and disinhibition in eating behavior and smokers scoring low in both categories as assessed with the Three Factor Eating Questionnaire (TFEQ; Stunkard & Messick, 1985). As a measure for smoking effects on the stress axis, the saliva cortisol concentrations were compared before and after nicotine smoking. Additionally, stress perception was assessed with the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), symptoms of depression and anxiety with the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). In smokers showing high cognitive restraint and disinhibition we found significantly higher leptin concentrations than in the group of smokers scoring low in both categories. Furthermore there was a significant group difference in saliva cortisol concentrations after nicotine intake. Smokers showing high cognitive restraint and disinhibition were also characterized by significantly higher scores in the STAI, the PSS and the BDI. Our results suggest that smokers with a pathological eating behavior show an impaired neuroendocrine regulation of appetite and are prone to experience higher levels of stress and negative affectivity. This interaction of behavioral and neuroendocrinological factors may constitute a high risk condition for gaining weight following smoking cessation.

Reconstruction of long-term tobacco consumption trends in Australia and their relationship to lung cancer mortality

OBJECTIVES

Analysis of long-term trends in smoking and causes of death in Australia are prevented by a lack of detailed tobacco consumption data prior to World War II. The objective of this study was to reconstruct data on tobacco consumption in Australia back to 1887 and examine its relationship with population-level lung cancer mortality, corrected for biases and miscoding.

METHODS

Back-extrapolation techniques and existing tobacco sales data were combined to estimate tobacco consumption prior to the 1940s. The relationship of tobacco and lung cancer mortality was examined with descriptive period and cohort analyses and log-linear Poisson regression models of cumulative cohort consumption.

RESULTS

The results show that tobacco consumption rose steadily in Australia for the majority of years from 1887 to World War II, before increasing drastically in the following years and then falling sharply to the present day. Lung cancer mortality was strongly influenced by tobacco consumption, peaking 20-25 years after the peak in tobacco consumption for men and 25-30 years for women. Regression models found cumulative consumption a very strong predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Period and cohort trends in smoking and lung cancer were similar to many other Western countries. The effectiveness of smoking reduction campaigns in Australia clearly reduced male lung cancer mortality and provides guidance for other countries, such as China, where smoking prevalence remains high.

Cross-national sources of health inequality: education and tobacco use in the World Health Survey

The spread of tobacco use from the West to other parts of the world, especially among disadvantaged socioeconomic groups, raises concerns not only about the indisputable harm to global health but also about worsening health inequality. Arguments relating to economic cost and diffusion posit that rising educational disparities in tobacco use-and associated disparities in health and premature mortality-are associated with higher national income and more advanced stages of cigarette diffusion, particularly among younger persons and males. To test these arguments, we use World Health Survey data for 99,661 men and 123,953 women from 50 low-income to upper-middle-income nations. Multilevel logistic regression models show that increases in national income and cigarette diffusion widen educational disparities in smoking among young persons and men but have weaker influences among older persons and women. The results suggest that the social and economic patterns of cigarette adoption across low- and middle-income nations foretell continuing, and perhaps widening, disparities in mortality.