Bluetongue in the United Kingdom and northern Europe in 2007 and key issues for 2008

A Qualitative Risk Assessment for Bluetongue Disease and African Horse Sickness: The Risk of Entry and Exposure at a UK Zoo

Bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV) cause economically important diseases that are currently exotic to the United Kingdom (UK), but have significant potential for introduction and onward transmission. Given the susceptibility of animals kept in zoo collections to vector-borne diseases, a qualitative risk assessment for the introduction of BTV and AHSV to ZSL London Zoo was performed. Risk pathways for each virus were identified and assessed using published literature, animal import data and outputs from epidemiological models. Direct imports of infected animals, as well as wind-borne infected Culicoides, were considered as routes of incursion. The proximity of ongoing disease events in mainland Europe and proven capability of transmission to the UK places ZSL London Zoo at higher risk of BTV release and exposure (estimated as low to medium) than AHSV (estimated as very low to low). The recent long-range expansion of AHSV into Thailand from southern Africa highlights the need for vector competence studies of Palearctic Culicoides for AHSV to assess the risk of transmission in this region.

High dispersal capacity of Culicoides obsoletus (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), vector of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses, revealed by landscape genetic analyses

BACKGROUND

In the last two decades, recurrent epizootics of bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus have been reported in the western Palearctic region. These viruses affect domestic cattle, sheep, goats and wild ruminants and are transmitted by native hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Culicoides dispersal is known to be stratified, i.e. due to a combination of dispersal processes occurring actively at short distances and passively or semi-actively at long distances, allowing individuals to jump hundreds of kilometers.

METHODS

Here, we aim to identify the environmental factors that promote or limit gene flow of Culicoides obsoletus, an abundant and widespread vector species in Europe, using an innovative framework integrating spatial, population genetics and statistical approaches. A total of 348 individuals were sampled in 46 sites in France and were genotyped using 13 newly designed microsatellite markers.

RESULTS

We found low genetic differentiation and a weak population structure for C. obsoletus across the country. Using three complementary inter-individual genetic distances, we did not detect any significant isolation by distance, but did detect significant anisotropic isolation by distance on a north-south axis. We employed a multiple regression on distance matrices approach to investigate the correlation between genetic and environmental distances. Among all the environmental factors that were tested, only cattle density seems to have an impact on C. obsoletus gene flow.

CONCLUSIONS

The high dispersal capacity of C. obsoletus over land found in the present study calls for a re-evaluation of the impact of Culicoides on virus dispersal, and highlights the urgent need to better integrate molecular, spatial and statistical information to guide vector-borne disease control.

Bayesian optimisation of restriction zones for bluetongue control

We investigate the restriction of animal movements as a method to control the spread of bluetongue, an infectious disease of livestock that is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the onset of climate change. We derive control policies for the UK that minimise the number of infected farms during an outbreak using Bayesian optimisation and a simulation-based model of BT. Two cases are presented: first, where the region of introduction is randomly selected from England and Wales to find a generalised strategy. This “national” model is shown to be just as effective at subduing the spread of bluetongue as the current strategy of the UK government. Our proposed controls are simpler to implement, affect fewer farms in the process and, in so doing, minimise the potential economic implications. Second, we consider policies that are tailored to the specific region in which the first infection was detected. Seven different regions in the UK were explored and improvements in efficiency from the use of specialised policies presented. As a consequence of the increasing temperatures associated with climate change, efficient control measures for vector-borne diseases such as this are expected to become increasingly important. Our work demonstrates the potential value of using Bayesian optimisation in developing cost-effective disease management strategies.

Ecological Dynamics Impacting Bluetongue Virus Transmission in North America

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus transmitted to domestic and wild ruminants by certain species of Culicoides midges. The disease resulting from infection with BTV is economically important and can influence international trade and movement of livestock, the economics of livestock production, and animal welfare. Recent changes in the epidemiology of Culicoides-transmitted viruses, notably the emergence of exotic BTV genotypes in Europe, have demonstrated the devastating economic consequences of BTV epizootics and the complex nature of transmission across host-vector landscapes. Incursions of novel BTV serotypes into historically enzootic countries or regions, including the southeastern United States (US), Israel, Australia, and South America, have also occurred, suggesting diverse pathways for the transmission of these viruses. The abundance of BTV strains and multiple reassortant viruses circulating in Europe and the US in recent years demonstrates considerable genetic diversity of BTV strains and implies a history of reassortment events within the respective regions. While a great deal of emphasis is rightly placed on understanding the epidemiology and emergence of BTV beyond its natural ecosystem, the ecological contexts in which BTV maintains an enzootic cycle may also be of great significance. This review focuses on describing our current knowledge of ecological factors driving BTV transmission in North America. Information presented in this review can help inform future studies that may elucidate factors that are relevant to longstanding and emerging challenges associated with prevention of this disease.

Bluetongue Disease Control in Northern Ireland During 2017 and 2018

Since the emergence of bluetongue virus in central and northern Europe in 2006, Northern Ireland's (NI) surveillance programme has evolved to include the use of risk assessments and simulation models to monitor the risk of bluetongue incursion. Livestock production is of high economic importance to NI as it exports approximately 75% of its agricultural produce. Its surveillance programme is designed to enable effective mitigation measures to be identified to minimize disease risk, and to provide additional assurances to protect NI's export markets in the European Union (EU) and third countries. Active surveillance employs an atmospheric dispersion model to assess the likelihood of wind-borne midge transfer from Great Britain (GB) to NI and to identify high risk areas. In these areas, the number of cattle tested for bluetongue is proportionally increased. Targeted surveillance is directed to ruminants imported from restricted countries and regions at risk of bluetongue. Targeted surveillance on high risk imports assists in early detection of disease as, despite all controls and preventive measures, legally imported animals may still carry the virus. In November 2018, a bluetongue-positive heifer was imported into NI. A case specific risk assessment was commissioned to estimate the likelihood of spread of bluetongue as a result of this incursion. November is the tail end of the midges' active period and therefore there was considerable uncertainty pertaining to the survival of midges inside a cattle shed and the potential for incubation of the virus in the vectors. An evidenced-based approach was adopted where temperature and midge abundance was monitored in order to minimize uncertainty and give an accurate estimate of the likelihood of virus spread to other animals following the arrival of the positive heifer. The heifer was destroyed and the evidence indicated that the risk of successful completion of the extrinsic cycle within the local midge population was negligible. This paper describes NI's surveillance programme between January 2017 and December 2018 and the case of a positive imported animal into the country. The importance of effective surveillance in early detection of threats and the usefulness of risk assessments is highlighted through the case study.

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak

In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection.

An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

This work develops a methodology for estimating risk of wind-borne introduction of flying insects into a country, identifying areas and periods of high risk of vector-borne diseases incursion. This risk can be characterized by the role of suitable temperatures and wind currents in small insects' survival and movements, respectively. The model predicts the number density of introduced insects over space and time based on three processes: the advection due to wind currents, the deposition on the ground and the survival due to climatic conditions. Spanish livestock has suffered many bluetongue outbreaks since 2004 and numerous experts point to Culicoides transported by wind from affected areas in North Africa as a possible cause. This work implements numerical experiments simulating the introduction of Culicoides in 2004. The model identified southern and eastern Spain, particularly between June and November, as being at greatest risk of wind-borne Culicoides introduction, which matches field data on bluetongue outbreaks in Spain this year. This validation suggests that this model may be useful for predicting introduction of airborne pathogens of significance to animal productivity.

Bluetongue virus spread in Europe is a consequence of climatic, landscape and vertebrate host factors as revealed by phylogeographic inference

Spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of infectious diseases are commonly driven by environmental and ecological factors. This is particularly true for vector-borne diseases because vector populations can be strongly affected by host distribution as well as by climatic and landscape variables. Here, we aim to identify environmental drivers for bluetongue virus (BTV), the causative agent of a major vector-borne disease of ruminants that has emerged multiple times in Europe in recent decades. In order to determine the importance of climatic, landscape and host-related factors affecting BTV diffusion across Europe, we fitted different phylogeographic models to a dataset of 113 time-stamped and geo-referenced BTV genomes, representing multiple strains and serotypes. Diffusion models using continuous space revealed that terrestrial habitat below 300 m altitude, wind direction and higher livestock densities were associated with faster BTV movement. Results of discrete phylogeographic analysis involving generalized linear models broadly supported these findings, but varied considerably with the level of spatial partitioning. Contrary to common perception, we found no evidence for average temperature having a positive effect on BTV diffusion, though both methodological and biological reasons could be responsible for this result. Our study provides important insights into the drivers of BTV transmission at the landscape scale that could inform predictive models of viral spread and have implications for designing control strategies.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors (Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. We illustrate how to identify the main synoptic situations present during times of midge incursions into the UK from the European continent. A PCA was conducted on high-pass-filtered mean sea-level pressure data for a domain centred over north-west Europe from 2005 to 2007. A clustering algorithm applied to the PCA scores indicated the data should be divided into five classes for which averages were calculated, providing a classification of the main synoptic types present. Midge incursion events were found to mainly occur in two synoptic categories; 64.8% were associated with a pattern displaying a pressure gradient over the North Atlantic leading to moderate south-westerly flow over the UK and 17.9% of the events occurred when high pressure dominated the region leading to south-easterly or easterly winds. The winds indicated by the pressure maps generally compared well against observations from a surface station and analysis charts. This technique could be used to assess frequency and timings of incursions of virus into new areas on seasonal and decadal timescales, currently not possible with other dispersion or biological modelling methods.

Bluetongue outbreaks: Looking for effective control strategies against Culicoides vectors

Several arthropod-borne diseases are now rising with increasing impact and risks for public health, due to environmental changes and resistance to pesticides currently marketed. In addition to community surveillance programs and a careful management of herds, a next-generation of effective products is urgently needed to control the spread of these diseases, with special reference to arboviral ones. Natural product research can afford alternative solutions. Recently, a re-emerging of bluetongue disease is ongoing in Italy. Bluetongue is a viral disease that affects ruminants and is spread through the bite of bloodsucking insects, especially Culicoides species. In this review, we focused on the importance of vector control programs for prevention or bluetongue outbreaks, outlining the lack of effective tools in the fight against Culicoides vectors. Then, we analyzed a field case study in Sardinia (Italy) concerning the utilization of the neem cake (Azadirachta indica), to control young instar populations of Culicoides biting midges, the vectors of bluetongue virus. Neem cake is a cheap and eco-friendly by-product obtained from the extraction of neem oil. Overall, we propose that the employ of neem extraction by-products as aqueous formulations in muddy sites close to livestock grazing areas may represent an effective tool in the fight against the spread of bluetongue virus in the Mediterranean areas.

Source-receptor probability of atmospheric long-distance dispersal of viruses to Israel from the eastern Mediterranean area

Viruses that affect the health of humans and farm animals can spread over long distances via atmospheric mechanisms. The phenomenon of atmospheric long-distance dispersal (LDD) is associated with severe consequences because it may introduce pathogens into new areas. The introduction of new pathogens to Israel was attributed to LDD events numerous times. This provided the motivation for this study which is aimed to identify all the locations in the eastern Mediterranean that may serve as sources for pathogen incursion into Israel via LDD. This aim was achieved by calculating source-receptor relationship probability maps. These maps describe the probability that an infected vector or viral aerosol, once airborne, will have an atmospheric route that can transport it to a distant location. The resultant probability maps demonstrate a seasonal tendency in the probability of specific areas to serve as sources for pathogen LDD into Israel. Specifically, Cyprus' season is the summer; southern Turkey and the Greek islands of Crete, Karpathos and Rhodes are associated with spring and summer; lower Egypt and Jordan may serve as sources all year round, except the summer months. The method used in this study can easily be implemented to any other geographic region. The importance of this study is the ability to provide a climatologically valid and accurate risk assessment tool to support long-term decisions regarding preparatory actions for future outbreaks long before a specific outbreak occurs.

Quantifying the roles of host movement and vector dispersal in the transmission of vector-borne diseases of livestock

The role of host movement in the spread of vector-borne diseases of livestock has been little studied. Here we develop a mathematical framework that allows us to disentangle and quantify the roles of vector dispersal and livestock movement in transmission between farms. We apply this framework to outbreaks of bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in Great Britain, both of which are spread by Culicoides biting midges and have recently emerged in northern Europe. For BTV we estimate parameters by fitting the model to outbreak data using approximate Bayesian computation, while for SBV we use previously derived estimates. We find that around 90% of transmission of BTV between farms is a result of vector dispersal, while for SBV this proportion is 98%. This difference is a consequence of higher vector competence and shorter duration of viraemia for SBV compared with BTV. For both viruses we estimate that the mean number of secondary infections per infected farm is greater than one for vector dispersal, but below one for livestock movements. Although livestock movements account for a small proportion of transmission and cannot sustain an outbreak on their own, they play an important role in establishing new foci of infection. However, the impact of restricting livestock movements on the spread of both viruses depends critically on assumptions made about the distances over which vector dispersal occurs. If vector dispersal occurs primarily at a local scale (99% of transmission occurs <25 km), movement restrictions are predicted to be effective at reducing spread, but if dispersal occurs frequently over longer distances (99% of transmission occurs <50 km) they are not.

Diseases which are transmitted by the bites of insects can be spread to new locations through the movement of both infected insects and infected hosts. The importance of these routes has implications for disease control, because we can often restrict host movement, and so potentially reduce spread, but cannot easily restrict insect movements. Despite this, the importance of host movements has been little studied. Here we develop a mathematical model which allows us to disentangle and quantify transmission by insect dispersal and by host movement. We apply the model to two diseases of cattle and sheep transmitted by biting midges that have emerged in northern Europe in the past decade, bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). For both viruses, we show insect movements account for a majority of spread between farms. Although they cannot sustain an epidemic on their own, animal movements play an important role in introducing disease to new areas.

A review of potential bluetongue virus vaccine strategies

Bluetongue (BT) is an economically important, non-zoonotic arboviral disease of certain wild and domestic species of cloven-hooved ungulates. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is the causative agent and the occurrence of BTV infection is distinctly seasonal in temperate regions of the world, and dependent on the presence of vector biting midges (e.g. Culicoides sonorensis in much of North America). In recent years, severe outbreaks have occurred throughout Europe and BTV is endemic in most tropical and temperate regions of the world. Several vaccines have been licensed for commercial use, including modified live (live-attenuated) and inactivated products, and this review summarizes recent strategies developed for BTV vaccines with emphasis on technologies suitable for differentiating naturally infected from vaccinated animals. The goal of this review is to evaluate realistic vaccine strategies that might be utilized to control or prevent future outbreaks of BT.

Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland

Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a “worst case” but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy.

African horse sickness: The potential for an outbreak in disease-free regions and current disease control and elimination techniques

African horse sickness (AHS) is an arboviral disease of equids transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. The virus is endemic in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and official AHS disease-free status can be obtained from the World Organization for Animal Health on fulfilment of a number of criteria. AHS is associated with case fatality rates of up to 95%, making an outbreak among naïve horses both a welfare and economic disaster. The worldwide distributions of similar vector-borne diseases (particularly bluetongue disease of ruminants) are changing rapidly, probably due to a combination of globalisation and climate change. There is extensive evidence that the requisite conditions for an AHS epizootic currently exist in disease-free countries. In particular, although the stringent regulations enforced upon competition horses make them extremely unlikely to redistribute the virus, there are great concerns over the effects of illegal equid movement. An outbreak of AHS in a disease free region would have catastrophic effects on equine welfare and industry, particularly for international events such as the Olympic Games. While many regions have contingency plans in place to manage an outbreak of AHS, further research is urgently required if the equine industry is to avoid or effectively contain an AHS epizootic in disease-free regions. This review describes the key aspects of AHS as a global issue and discusses the evidence supporting concerns that an epizootic may occur in AHS free countries, the planned government responses, and the roles and responsibilities of equine veterinarians.

Monitoring for bovine arboviruses in the most southwestern islands in Japan between 1994 and 2014

Background

In Japan, epizootic arboviral infections have severely impacted the livestock industry for a long period. Akabane, Aino, Chuzan, bovine ephemeral fever and Ibaraki viruses have repeatedly caused epizootic abnormal births and febrile illness in the cattle population. In addition, Peaton, Sathuperi, Shamonda and D’Aguilar viruses and epizootic hemorrhagic virus serotype 7 have recently emerged in Japan and are also considered to be involved in abnormal births in cattle. The above-mentioned viruses are hypothesized to circulate in tropical and subtropical Asia year round and to be introduced to temperate East Asia by long-distance aerial dispersal of infected vectors. To watch for arbovirus incursion and assess the possibility of its early warning, monitoring for arboviruses was conducted in the Yaeyama Islands, located at the most southwestern area of Japan, between 1994 and 2014.

Results

Blood sampling was conducted once a year, in the autumn, in 40 to 60 healthy cattle from the Yaeyama Islands. Blood samples were tested for arboviruses. A total of 33 arboviruses including Akabane, Peaton, Chuzan, D’ Aguilar, Bunyip Creek, Batai and epizootic hemorrhagic viruses were isolated from bovine blood samples. Serological surveillance for the bovine arboviruses associated with cattle diseases in young cattle (ages 6–12 months: had only been alive for one summer) clearly showed their frequent incursion into the Yaeyama Islands. In some cases, the arbovirus incursions could be detected in the Yaeyama Islands prior to their spread to mainland Japan.

Conclusions

We showed that long-term surveillance in the Yaeyama Islands could estimate the activity of bovine arboviruses in neighboring regions and may provide a useful early warning for likely arbovirus infections in Japan. The findings in this study could contribute to the planning of prevention and control for bovine arbovirus infections in Japan and cooperative efforts among neighboring countries in East Asia.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-016-0747-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Range expansion of the Bluetongue vector, Culicoides imicola, in continental France likely due to rare wind-transport events

The role of the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola Kieffer in recent and unprecedented outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in southern Europe has been a significant point of contention. We combined entomological surveys, movement simulations of air-borne particles, and population genetics to reconstruct the chain of events that led to a newly colonized French area nestled at the northern foot of the Pyrenees. Simulating the movement of air-borne particles evidenced frequent wind-transport events allowing, within at most 36 hours, the immigration of midges from north-eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, and, as rare events, their immigration from Corsica. Completing the puzzle, population genetic analyses discriminated Corsica as the origin of the new population and identified two successive colonization events within west-Mediterranean basin. Our findings are of considerable importance when trying to understand the invasion of new territories by expanding species.

Epidemiological analysis of bovine ephemeral fever in 2012-2013 in the subtropical islands of Japan

Background

Bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) is a febrile disease of cattle that is transmitted by arthropod vectors such as mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges. An outbreak of BEF recently occurred in Ishigaki Island and surrounding islands that are located southwest of Japan. In this study, an epidemiological analysis was conducted to understand the temporal and spatial characteristics of the outbreak. Factors associated with the disease spread within Ishigaki Island were investigated by hierarchical Bayesian models. The possibility of between-island transmission by windborne vectors and transmission by long-distance migration of infected vectors were examined using atmospheric dispersion models.

Results

In September 2012, the first case of the disease was detected in the western part of Ishigaki Island. In 1 month, it had rapidly spread to the southern part of the island and to surrounding islands, and led to 225 suspected cases of BEF during the outbreak. The dispersion model demonstrated the high possibility of between-island transmission by wind. Spatial analysis showed that paddy fields, farmlands, and slope gradients had a significant impact on the 1-km cell-level incidence risk. These factors may have influenced the habitats and movements of the vectors with regard to the spread of BEF. A plausible incursion event of infected vectors from Southeast Asia to Ishigaki Island was estimated to have occurred at the end of August.

Conclusion

This study revealed that the condition of a terrain and land use significantly influenced disease transmission. These factors are important in assessing favorable environments for related vectors. The results of the dispersion model indicated the likely transmission of the infected vectors by wind on the local scale and on the long-distance scale. These findings would be helpful for developing a surveillance program and developing preventive measures against BEF.

Response to an emerging vector-borne disease: surveillance and preparedness for Schmallenberg virus

Surveillance for new emerging animal diseases from a European perspective is complicated by the non-harmonised approach across Member States for data capture, recording livestock populations and case definitions. In the summer of 2011, a new vector-borne Orthobunyavirus emerged in Northern Europe and for the first time, a coordinated approach to horizon scanning, risk communication, data and diagnostic test sharing allowed EU Member States to develop early predictions of the disease, its impact and risk management options. There are many different systems in place across the EU for syndromic and scanning surveillance and the differences in these systems have presented epidemiologists and risk assessors with concerns about their combined use in early identification of an emerging disease. The emergence of a new disease always will raise challenging issues around lack of capability and lack of knowledge; however, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) gave veterinary authorities an additional complex problem: the infection caused few clinical signs in adult animals, with no indication of the possible source and little evidence about its spread or means of transmission. This paper documents the different systems in place in some of the countries (Germany and the Netherlands) which detected disease initially and predicted its spread (to the UK) and how information sharing helped to inform early warning and risk assessment for Member States. Microarray technology was used to identify SBV as a new pathogen and data from the automated cattle milking systems coupled with farmer-derived data on reporting non-specific clinical signs gave the first indications of a widespread issue while the UK used meteorological modelling to map disease incursion. The coordinating role of both EFSA and the European Commission were vital as are the opportunities presented by web-based publishing for disseminating information to industry and the public. The future of detecting emerging disease looks more positive in the light of this combined approach in the EU.

A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease

In 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) was introduced to both Denmark (DK) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this reason, simulation models were built to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a common description of within-herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their descriptions of between-herd spread, one using an explicit representation of vector dispersal, the other a transmission kernel. Here, we compare model predictions for the dynamics of bluetongue in the UK, based on the 2007 incursion and vaccination rollout in 2008. We demonstrate how an agent-based model shows greater sensitivity to the level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a kernel-based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel requires less detailed data and is often faster.

Long-distance aerial dispersal modelling of Culicoides biting midges: case studies of incursions into Australia

BACKGROUND

Previous studies investigating long-distance, wind-borne dispersal of Culicoides have utilised outbreaks of clinical disease (passive surveillance) to assess the relationship between incursion and dispersal event. In this study, species of exotic Culicoides and isolates of novel bluetongue viruses, collected as part of an active arbovirus surveillance program, were used for the first time to assess dispersal into an endemic region.

RESULTS

A plausible dispersal event was determined for five of the six cases examined. These include exotic Culicoides specimens for which a possible dispersal event was identified within the range of two days--three weeks prior to their collection and novel bluetongue viruses for which a dispersal event was identified between one week and two months prior to their detection in cattle. The source location varied, but ranged from Lombok, in eastern Indonesia, to Timor-Leste and southern Papua New Guinea.

CONCLUSIONS

Where bluetongue virus is endemic, the concurrent use of an atmospheric dispersal model alongside existing arbovirus and Culicoides surveillance may help guide the strategic use of limited surveillance resources as well as contribute to continued model validation and refinement. Further, the value of active surveillance systems in evaluating models for long-distance dispersal is highlighted, particularly in endemic regions where knowledge of background virus and vector status is beneficial.

Seasonal variation and impact of waste-water lagoons as larval habitat on the population dynamics of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera:Ceratpogonidae) at two dairy farms in northern California

The Sacramento (northern Central) Valley of California (CA) has a hot Mediterranean climate and a diverse ecological landscape that is impacted extensively by human activities, which include the intensive farming of crops and livestock. Waste-water ponds, marshes, and irrigated fields associated with these agricultural activities provide abundant larval habitats for C. sonorensis midges, in addition to those sites that exist in the natural environment. Within this region, C. sonorensis is an important vector of bluetongue (BTV) and related viruses that adversely affect the international trade and movement of livestock, the economics of livestock production, and animal welfare. To characterize the seasonal dynamics of immature and adult C. sonorensis populations, abundance was monitored intensively on two dairy farms in the Sacramento Valley from August 2012- to July 2013. Adults were sampled every two weeks for 52 weeks by trapping (CDC style traps without light and baited with dry-ice) along N-S and E-W transects on each farm. One farm had large operational waste-water lagoons, whereas the lagoon on the other farm was drained and remained dry during the study. Spring emergence and seasonal abundance of adult C. sonorensis on both farms coincided with rising vernal temperature. Paradoxically, the abundance of midges on the farm without a functioning waste-water lagoon was increased as compared to abundance on the farm with a waste-water lagoon system, indicating that this infrastructure may not serve as the sole, or even the primary larval habitat. Adult midges disappeared from both farms from late November until May; however, low numbers of parous female midges were detected in traps set during daylight in the inter-seasonal winter period. This latter finding is especially critical as it provides a potential mechanism for the "overwintering" of BTV in temperate regions such as northern CA. Precise documentation of temporal changes in the annual abundance and dispersal of Culicoides midges is essential for the creation of models to predict BTV infection of livestock and to develop sound abatement strategies.

The threat of midge-borne equine disease: investigation of Culicoides species on UK equine premises

There are concerns that outbreaks of exotic or novel vector-borne viral diseases will increasingly occur within northern Europe and the UK in the future. African horse sickness (AHS) is a viral disease of equids that is transmitted by Culicoides and is associated with up to 95 per cent mortality. AHS has never occurred in the UK; however, it has been suggested that appropriate Culicoides species and climatic conditions are present in northern Europe to support an outbreak. No data are currently available regarding the Culicoides species present on UK equine properties. This study demonstrates the presence of potential AHS virus vector Culicoides species on both urban and rural equine properties within the south-east UK. PCR analysis revealed that engorged members of these species contained equine DNA, proving a direct vector-host interaction. It is therefore possible that an AHS outbreak could occur in the UK if the virus were to be imported and, given the severe welfare and economic consequences of AHS, this would have devastating consequences to the naïve UK equine population.

Modelling spatio-temporal patterns of long-distance Culicoides dispersal into northern Australia

Novel arboviruses, including new serotypes of bluetongue virus, are isolated intermittently from cattle and insects in northern Australia. These viruses are thought to be introduced via windborne dispersal of Culicoides from neighbouring land masses to the north. We used the HYSPLIT particle dispersal model to simulate the spatio-temporal patterns of Culicoides dispersal into northern Australia from nine putative source sites across Indonesia, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea. Simulated dispersal was found to be possible from each site, with the islands of Timor and Sumba highlighted as the likely principal sources and February the predominant month of dispersal. The results of this study define the likely spatial extent of the source and arrival regions, the relative frequency of dispersal from the putative sources and the temporal nature of seasonal winds from source sites into arrival regions. Importantly, the methodology and results may be applicable to other insect and pathogen incursions into northern Australia.

Protection of IFNAR (-/-) mice against bluetongue virus serotype 8, by heterologous (DNA/rMVA) and homologous (rMVA/rMVA) vaccination, expressing outer-capsid protein VP2

The protective efficacy of recombinant vaccines expressing serotype 8 bluetongue virus (BTV-8) capsid proteins was tested in a mouse model. The recombinant vaccines comprised plasmid DNA or Modified Vaccinia Ankara viruses encoding BTV VP2, VP5 or VP7 proteins. These constructs were administered alone or in combination using either a homologous prime boost vaccination regime (rMVA/rMVA) or a heterologous vaccination regime (DNA/rMVA). The DNA/rMVA or rMVA/rMVA prime-boost were administered at a three week interval and all of the animals that received VP2 generated neutralising antibodies. The vaccinated and non-vaccinated-control mice were subsequently challenged with a lethal dose of BTV-8. Mice vaccinated with VP7 alone were not protected. However, mice vaccinated with DNA/rMVA or rMVA/rMVA expressing VP2, VP5 and VP7 or VP2 alone were all protected.

Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland

During 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV) presented as a novel disease of cattle and sheep that had apparently spread through northern Europe over a relatively short period of time, but has yet to infect Scotland. This paper describes the development of a model of SBV spread applied to Scotland in the event of an incursion. This model shows that SBV spread is very sensitive to the temperature, with relatively little spread and few reproductive losses predicted in years with average temperatures but extensive spread (>1 million animals infected) and substantial reproductive losses in the hottest years. These results indicate that it is possible for SBV to spread in Scotland, however spread is limited by climatic conditions and the timing of introduction. Further results show that the transmission kernel shape and extrinsic incubation period parameter have a non-linear effect on disease transmission, so a greater understanding of the SBV transmission parameters is required.

Evaluation of long-distance dispersal of Culicoides midges into northern Australia using a migration model

The introduction of novel bluetongue serotypes and genotypes into northern Australia is considered possible via the long-distance windborne dispersal of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vectors from Southeast Asia. Initial findings from simulation modelling of potential dispersal over a 15-year period revealed that the greatest risk for incursion of windborne Culicoides from the island of Timor into northern Australia occurs during December-March. The regions at greatest risk for incursion include the top end of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley region in Western Australia, but there is potential for more widespread dispersal into northern Australia based on Timor as the putative source. The establishment of a more pathogenic strain of the virus, or of a novel Culicoides vector introduced by such inter-continental dispersal events, could dramatically alter Australia's current bluetongue disease status.

Seasonal migration to high latitudes results in major reproductive benefits in an insect

Little is known of the population dynamics of long-range insect migrants, and it has been suggested that the annual journeys of billions of nonhardy insects to exploit temperate zones during summer represent a sink from which future generations seldom return (the "Pied Piper" effect). We combine data from entomological radars and ground-based light traps to show that annual migrations are highly adaptive in the noctuid moth Autographa gamma (silver Y), a major agricultural pest. We estimate that 10-240 million immigrants reach the United Kingdom each spring, but that summer breeding results in a fourfold increase in the abundance of the subsequent generation of adults, all of which emigrate southward in the fall. Trajectory simulations show that 80% of emigrants will reach regions suitable for winter breeding in the Mediterranean Basin, for which our population dynamics model predicts a winter carrying capacity only 20% of that of northern Europe during the summer. We conclude not only that poleward insect migrations in spring result in major population increases, but also that the persistence of such species is dependent on summer breeding in high-latitude regions, which requires a fundamental change in our understanding of insect migration.

A review of African horse sickness and its implications for Ireland

African horse sickness is an economically highly important non-contagious but infectious Orbivirus disease that is transmitted by various species of Culicoides midges. The equids most severely affected by the virus are horses, ponies, and European donkeys; mules are somewhat less susceptible, and African donkeys and zebra are refractory to the devastating consequences of infection. In recent years, Bluetongue virus, an Orbivirus similar to African horse sickness, which also utilises Culicoides spp. as its vector, has drastically increased its range into previously unaffected regions in northern Europe, utilising indigenous vector species, and causing widespread economic damage to the agricultural sector. Considering these events, the current review outlines the history of African horse sickness, including information concerning virus structure, transmission, viraemia, overwintering ability, and the potential implications that an outbreak would have for Ireland. While the current risk for the introduction of African horse sickness to Ireland is considered at worst ‘very low’, it is important to note that prior to the 2006 outbreak of Bluetongue in northern Europe, both diseases were considered to be of equal risk to the United Kingdom (‘medium-risk’). It is therefore likely that any outbreak of this disease would have serious socio-economic consequences for Ireland due to the high density of vulnerable equids and the prevalence of Culicoides species, potentially capable of vectoring the virus.

Investigating incursions of bluetongue virus using a model of long-distance Culicoides biting midge dispersal

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an economically important pathogen of ruminants that is the aetiological agent of the haemorrhagic disease bluetongue. Bluetongue virus is biologically transmitted by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), and long-range dispersal of infected vector species contributes substantially to the rapid spread of the virus. The range of semi-passive flights of infected Culicoides on prevailing winds has been inferred to reach several hundred kilometres in a single night over water bodies. In this study, an atmospheric dispersion model was parameterized to simulate Culicoides flight activity based on dedicated entomological data sets collected in the UK. Five outbreaks of BTV in Europe were used to evaluate the model for use as an early warning tool and for retrospective analyses of BTV incursions. In each case, the generated predictions were consistent with epidemiological observations confirming its reliability for use in disease outbreak management. Furthermore, the model aided policy makers to predict, contain and eradicate BTV outbreaks in the UK during 2007 and 2008.

Investigation of diel activity of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in the United Kingdom by using a vehicle-mounted trap

Truck trap collections of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were made during 2 yr of sampling from 2008 to 2009 at a farm site in southern England. Samples were collected from 810 sample runs carried out over 52 d and contained 7,095 Culicoides of which more than half (50.3%) were identified as Culicoides obsoletus Meigen by using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction assay. Other commonly encountered species included Culicoides scoticus Downes & Kettle (14.7% of total Culicoides caught), Culicoides dewulfi Goetghebuer (3.7%), and Culicoides chiopterus Meigen (4.2%). The activity rates of these species were examined with regard to both meteorological factors (light intensity, humidity, temperature, and wind speed and direction) and other potentially contributing variables (lunar phase and brightness, sunset time, and year) by using generalized linear models. All the species examined were collected in greater abundance at sunset, although the relationship between underlying light intensity and numbers was less pronounced in C. dewulfi and C. chiopterus. Collections of Culicoides were reduced at temperatures above 21 degrees C and were inversely related to wind speed. Variation between species was recorded, however, in response to wind direction: C. dewulfi and C. chiopterus were associated with prevailing winds passing through fields containing livestock, whereas C. obsoletus and C. scoticus demonstrated no such relationship. A male:female ratio of 1:3.56 was observed in catches, and male populations were protandrous. These results are discussed with reference both to the ecology of these species and methods currently used to predict adult Culicoides movement and abundance in Europe.

Modelling bluetongue virus transmission between farms using animal and vector movements

Bluetongue is a notifiable disease of ruminants which, in 2007, occurred for the first time in England. We present the first model for bluetongue that explicitly incorporates farm to farm movements of the two main hosts, as well as vector dispersal. The model also includes a seasonal vector to host ratio and dynamic restriction zones that evolve as infection is detected. Batch movements of sheep were included by modelling degree of mixing at markets. We investigate the transmission of bluetongue virus between farms in eastern England (the focus of the outbreak). Results indicate that most parameters affecting outbreak size relate to vectors and that the infection generally cannot be maintained without between-herd vector transmission. Movement restrictions are effective at reducing outbreak size, and a targeted approach would be as effective as a total movement ban. The model framework is flexible and can be adapted to other vector-borne diseases of livestock.

A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe

The 2006 bluetongue (BT) outbreak in northwestern Europe had devastating effects on cattle and sheep in that intensively farmed area. The role of wind in disease spread, through its effect on Culicoides dispersal, is still uncertain, and remains unquantified. We examine here the relationship between farm-level infection dates and wind speed and direction within the framework of a novel model involving both mechanistic and stochastic steps. We consider wind as both a carrier of host semio-chemicals, to which midges might respond by upwind flight, and as a transporter of the midges themselves, in a more or less downwind direction. For completeness, we also consider midge movement independent of wind and various combinations of upwind, downwind and random movements. Using stochastic simulation, we are able to explain infection onset at 94 per cent of the 2025 affected farms. We conclude that 54 per cent of outbreaks occurred through (presumably midge) movement of infections over distances of no more than 5 km, 92 per cent over distances of no more than 31 km and only 2 per cent over any greater distances. The modal value for all infections combined is less than 1 km. Our analysis suggests that previous claims for a higher frequency of long-distance infections are unfounded. We suggest that many apparent long-distance infections resulted from sequences of shorter-range infections; a 'stepping stone' effect. Our analysis also found that downwind movement (the only sort so far considered in explanations of BT epidemics) is responsible for only 39 per cent of all infections, and highlights the effective contribution to disease spread of upwind midge movement, which accounted for 38 per cent of all infections. The importance of midge flight speed is also investigated. Within the same model framework, lower midge active flight speed (of 0.13 rather than 0.5 m s(-1)) reduced virtually to zero the role of upwind movement, mainly because modelled wind speeds in the area concerned were usually greater than such flight speed. Our analysis, therefore, highlights the need to improve our knowledge of midge flight speed in field situations, which is still very poorly understood. Finally, the model returned an intrinsic incubation period of 8 days, in accordance with the values reported in the literature. We argue that better understanding of the movement of infected insect vectors is an important ingredient in the management of future outbreaks of BT in Europe, and other devastating vector-borne diseases elsewhere.

Impact of regulatory perturbations to disease spread through cattle movements in Great Britain

During the past decade the British livestock industry has suffered from several major pathogen outbreaks, and a variety of regulatory and disease control measures have been applied to the movement of livestock with the express aim of mitigating the spread of infection. The Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal-related Risks (RADAR) project, which has been collecting data on the movement of cattle since 1998, provides a relatively comprehensive record of how these policies have influenced the movement of cattle between animal holdings, markets, and slaughterhouses in Britain. Many previous studies have focused on the properties of the network that can be derived from these movements – treating farms as nodes and movements as directed (and potentially weighted) edges in the network. However, of far greater importance is how these policy changes have influenced the potential spread of infectious diseases. Here we use a stochastic fully individual-based model of cattle in Britain to assess how the epidemic potential has varied from 2000 to 2009 as the pattern of movements has changed in response to legislation and market forces. Our simulations show that the majority of policy changes lead to significant decreases in the epidemic potential (measured in multiple ways), but that this potential then increases through time as cattle farmers modify their behaviour in response. Our results suggest that the cattle industry is likely to experience boom-bust dynamics, with the actions that farmers take during epidemic-free periods to maximise their profitability likely to increase the potential for large-scale epidemics to occur.

Bluetongue serotype 8 vaccine coverage in northern and south-eastern England in 2008

A postal survey of all registered cattle and sheep farmers in East Anglia was carried out from July 2008 to determine bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) vaccine uptake in the region. The vaccine was available to farmers in this region from May 2008. The survey was repeated in Cumbria and Northumberland at the beginning of 2009. In these regions, the vaccine was not available until September 1, 2008. Holding-level vaccine uptake was estimated to be 85 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 83 to 87 per cent, n=1623) in East Anglia and 36 per cent (95 per cent CI 32 to 40 per cent, n=633) in northern England. A telephone follow-up of non-responders reduced these estimates to 79 and 29 per cent in East Anglia and northern England, respectively. In both regions, vaccine coverage was higher in sheep than in cattle, with 92 per cent of sheep in East Anglia having been vaccinated. The proportion of holdings that had applied the vaccine or were intending to apply the vaccine in 2009 in the northern region was 51 per cent (95 per cent CI 47 to 54 per cent, n=664), with a further 37 per cent undecided at the time of response.

Morphological and molecular identification of species of the Obsoletus group (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Scandinavia

After the introduction of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006, populations of Culicoides have been monitored in many European countries. Large quantities of Culicoides specimens shall be determined to species, and it is thus important to find reliable morphological characters that are visualized in a stereomicroscope. Culicoides obsoletus, Culicoides scoticus, Culicoides chiopterus, and Culicoides dewulfi all belonging to subgenus Avaritia are common in collections in northern Europe. C. obsoletus and C. scoticus often make up more than 50% of the total catch of biting midges. Separation of the females of the four species by morphological characters has frequently been questioned, and in many cases, female specimens are grouped as an entity in veterinary and ecological studies. We show how it is possible using a stereomicroscope to separate the females of the four species by combining the shape of the third segment of the maxillary palp and the number and location of hairs on the first abdominal tergit. Validation of the quick stereomicroscope identification method was achieved by morphometric measurements and a molecular marker. In all cases, both methods verified the quick morphological species identification of the Obsoletus group females. In conclusion, the females of all four species of the Obsoletus group can be separated by a quick morphological method under the stereomicroscope.

An investigation into the possibility of bluetongue virus transmission by transfer of infected ovine embryos

Bluetongue (BT), a disease that affects mainly sheep, causes economic losses owing to not only its deleterious effects on animals but also its associated impact on the restriction of movement of livestock and livestock germplasm. The causative agent, bluetongue virus (BTV), can occur in the semen of rams and bulls at the time of peak viraemia and be transferred to a developing foetus. The risk of the transmission of BTV by bovine embryos is negligible if the embryos are washed according to the International Embryo Transfer Society (IETS) protocol. Two experiments were undertaken to determine whether this holds for ovine embryos that had been exposed to BTV. Firstly, the oestrus cycles of 12 ewes were synchronised and the 59 embryos that were obtained were exposed in vitro to BTV-2 and BTV-4 at a dilution of 1 x 102.88 and 1 x 103.5 respectively. In the second experiment, embryos were recovered from sheep at the peak of viraemia. A total of 96 embryos were collected from BTV-infected sheep 21 days after infection. In both experiments half the embryos were washed and treated with trypsin according to the IETS protocol while the remaining embryos were neither washed nor treated. All were tested for the presence of BTV using cell culture techniques. The virus was detected after three passages in BHK-21 cells only in one wash bath in the first experiment and two unwashed embryos exposed to BTV-4 at a titre of 1 x 103.5. No embryos or uterine flush fluids obtained from viraemic donors used in the second experiment were positive for BTV after the standard washing procedure had been followed. The washing procedure of the IETS protocol can thus clear sheep embryos infected with BTV either in vitro or in vivo.

Possible means of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) to Sweden in August 2008: comparison of results from two models for atmospheric transport of the Culicoides vector

In September 2008, bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) infection was detected for the first time in Sweden, in a dairy herd on the west coast. Two different previously published operational atmospheric dispersion models indicate that midges from infected regions in Europe are likely to have reached Sweden by atmospheric transport during an estimated infection window. Both models indicated that the likely dates for the incursion of midges were overnight on August 6 to 7 and August 14 to 15; however, the less constrained model indicated a number of additional possible dates. The distribution of infected herds detected by active surveillance coincides with the regions that were indicated by the models to have been reached by midges from regions in Denmark and Germany with infected herds. It is likely that several points of introduction of infected midges occurred, possibly on different occasions. No alternative routes for introduction of the infection to Sweden were identified, supporting the theory that BTV-8 was introduced by infected midges carried by the wind.

Flight behavior of adult Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides maculatus under different temperatures in the laboratory

The flight behavior of adult Culicoides biting midges is associated with their likelihood to reach nearby host animals and spread diseases. Therefore, evaluating the effects of atmospheric factors on the flight performances of these insects is important for understanding the spread of diseases in various circumstances. We evaluated the effects of different temperatures on the flight behavior of Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides maculatus under laboratory conditions. The flight activities for both species particularly increased in the range between 10°C and 20°C, while the activities under 10°C were very limited for both species. The temperature when one half of the proportion of insects had flown was estimated to be 18.1°C for C. oxystoma and slightly higher than the value of 17.4°C for C. maculatus by fitting sigmoid curves. However, the wide 95% confidence interval observed for C. maculatus did not statistically justify the difference. The flight behavior of adult Culicoides biting midges was highly influenced by temperature. Our results would be of use for modeling studies or geographical analyses of diseases transmitted by these insects.

The landscape genetics of infectious disease emergence and spread

The spread of parasites is inherently a spatial process often embedded in physically complex landscapes. It is therefore not surprising that infectious disease researchers are increasingly taking a landscape genetics perspective to elucidate mechanisms underlying basic ecological processes driving infectious disease dynamics and to understand the linkage between spatially dependent population processes and the geographic distribution of genetic variation within both hosts and parasites. The increasing availability of genetic information on hosts and parasites when coupled to their ecological interactions can lead to insights for predicting patterns of disease emergence, spread and control. Here, we review research progress in this area based on four different motivations for the application of landscape genetics approaches: (i) assessing the spatial organization of genetic variation in parasites as a function of environmental variability, (ii) using host population genetic structure as a means to parameterize ecological dynamics that indirectly influence parasite populations, for example, gene flow and movement pathways across heterogeneous landscapes and the concurrent transport of infectious agents, (iii) elucidating the temporal and spatial scales of disease processes and (iv) reconstructing and understanding infectious disease invasion. Throughout this review, we emphasize that landscape genetic principles are relevant to infection dynamics across a range of scales from within host dynamics to global geographic patterns and that they can also be applied to unconventional 'landscapes' such as heterogeneous contact networks underlying the spread of human and livestock diseases. We conclude by discussing some general considerations and problems for inferring epidemiological processes from genetic data and try to identify possible future directions and applications for this rapidly expanding field.

Neutralising antibody responses in cattle and sheep following booster vaccination with two commercial inactivated bluetongue virus serotype 8 vaccines

Cattle and sheep that had received a primary course of vaccination with an inactivated bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) vaccine were booster vaccinated 6 or 12 months later with the homologous vaccine or an alternative inactivated BTV-8 vaccine and neutralising antibody responses were determined. Antibody titres to the alternative vaccine were significantly higher than to the homologous vaccine (P=0.013) in cattle. There was no significant difference between the antibody responses to alternative and homologous vaccines in sheep. These data indicate that cattle and sheep primed with one inactivated BTV-8 vaccine may be effectively boosted with an alternative commercial inactivated BTV-8 vaccine.

The arrival, establishment and spread of exotic diseases: patterns and predictions

The impact of human activities on the principles and processes governing the arrival, establishment and spread of exotic pathogens is illustrated by vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, West Nile, bluetongue and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fevers. Competent vectors, which are commonly already present in the areas, provide opportunities for infection by exotic pathogens that are introduced by travel and trade. At the same time, the correct combination of environmental conditions (both abiotic and biotic) makes many far-flung parts of the world latently and predictably, but differentially, permissive to persistent transmission cycles. Socioeconomic factors and nutritional status determine human exposure to disease and resistance to infection, respectively, so that disease incidence can vary independently of biological cycles.