A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries

Deforestation, landscape dynamics, and socioeconomic factors within the tropical Americas, Africa, and Asia may have different impacts on malaria incidence. To evaluate how these drivers affect malaria incidence at the global and regional scale, we collected malaria incidence rates from 2000 to 2019 from 67 tropical countries, along with forest loss, land use change types, and socioeconomic elements. LASSO regression, linear mixed effect modeling, and k-fold cross validation were used to create and evaluate the models. Regionality plays a role in the significance of varying risk factors. The Tropical Americas model had the highest coefficient of determination (marginal R2 = 0.369), while the Africa model showed the highest predictive accuracy with only a 17.4% error rate. Strong associations between tree cover loss (β = -4037.73, p < 0.001) and percentage forest area (β = 5373.18, p = 0.012) in Africa, and percent of key biodiversity areas under protection (β = 496.71, p < 0.001; β = 1679.20, p < 0.001) in the tropical Americas and Asia with malaria incidence indicates that malaria risk should be considered during conservation policy development, and recommends that individual approaches to policy and investment be considered when implementing malaria interventions on different spatial scales.

Investigating the Yanomami malaria outbreak puzzle: surge in mining during Bolsonaro's government triggered peak in malaria burden

The Yanomami, an Indigenous people from the Amazon, confront multifaceted challenges endangering their health and cultural integrity. Of immediate concern is the surge in malaria cases in their territory during Bolsonaro's government. We investigated the impact of land use on malaria incidence among the Yanomami leveraging satellite imagery and ran difference-in-differences analyses to ask whether the Yanomami suffered disproportionately from malaria when illegal mining was rising in the region (2016-2022). We show a remarkable ~300% rise in malaria from 2016 to 2022 and point to mining as the primary driver of malaria among the Yanomami; when mining increases by 1%, malaria increases by 31%. After mining unfolded, the burden of malaria among the Yanomami was disproportionately higher, up to 15%, than in non-indigenous communities. Our findings underscore the impact of illegal mining on the high malaria burden suffered by the Yanomami and the importance of rainforest conservation and land sovereignty for Indigenous health.

Assessment of malaria risk in Southeast Asia: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Several countries in Southeast Asia are nearing malaria elimination, yet eradication remains elusive. This is largely due to the challenge of focusing elimination efforts, an area where risk prediction can play an essential supporting role. Despite its importance, there is no standard numerical method to quantify the risk of malaria infection. Thus, there is a need for a consolidated view of existing definitions of risk and factors considered in assessing risk to analyse the merits of risk prediction models. This systematic review examines studies of the risk of malaria in Southeast Asia with regard to their suitability in addressing the challenges of malaria elimination in low transmission areas.

METHODS

A search of four electronic databases over 2010-2020 retrieved 1297 articles, of which 25 met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. In each study, examined factors included the definition of the risk and indicators of malaria transmission used, the environmental and climatic factors associated with the risk, the statistical models used, the spatial and temporal granularity, and how the relationship between environment, climate, and risk is quantified.

RESULTS

This review found variation in the definition of risk used, as well as the environmental and climatic factors in the reviewed articles. GLM was widely adopted as the analysis technique relating environmental and climatic factors to malaria risk. Most of the studies were carried out in either a cross-sectional design or case-control studies, and most utilized the odds ratio to report the relationship between exposure to risk and malaria prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting a standardized definition of malaria risk would help in comparing and sharing results, as would a clear description of the definition and method of collection of the environmental and climatic variables used. Further issues that need to be more fully addressed include detection of asymptomatic cases and considerations of human mobility. Many of the findings of this study are applicable to other low-transmission settings and could serve as a guideline for further studies of malaria in other regions.

Deforestation inhibits malaria transmission in Lao PDR: a spatial epidemiology using Earth observation satellites

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to analyze the impact of deforestation on the malaria distribution in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), with consideration of climate change.

METHODS

Malaria distribution data from 2002 to 2015 were obtained from the Ministry of Health of Lao PDR and each indicator was calculated. Earth observation satellite data (forested area, land surface temperature, and precipitation) were obtained from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Structured equation modeling (SEM) was conducted to clarify the relationship between the malaria incidence and Earth observation satellite data.

RESULTS

As a result, SEM identified two factors that were independently associated with the malaria incidence: area and proportion of forest. Specifically, malaria was found to be more prevalent in the southern region, with the malaria incidence increasing as the percentage of forested land increased (both p < 0.01). With global warming steadily progressing, forested areas are expected to play an important role in the incidence of malaria in Lao PDR. This is believed because malaria in Lao PDR is mainly forest malaria transmitted by Anopheles dirus.

CONCLUSION

To accelerate the elimination of malaria in Lao PDR, it is important to identify, prevent, and intervene in places with increased forest coverage (e.g., plantations) and in low-temperature areas adjacent to malaria-endemic areas, where the vegetation is similar to that in malaria-endemic areas.

'Forest malaria' in Myanmar? Tracking transmission landscapes in a diversity of environments

BACKGROUND

In the Greater Mekong Subregion, case-control studies and national-level analyses have shown an association between malaria transmission and forest activities. The term 'forest malaria' hides the diversity of ecosystems in the GMS, which likely do not share a uniform malaria risk. To reach malaria elimination goals, it is crucial to document accurately (both spatially and temporally) the influence of environmental factors on malaria to improve resource allocation and policy planning within given areas. The aim of this ecological study is to characterize the association between malaria dynamics and detailed ecological environments determined at village level over a period of several years in Kayin State, Myanmar.

METHODS

We characterized malaria incidence profiles at village scale based on intra- and inter-annual variations in amplitude, seasonality, and trend over 4 years (2016-2020). Environment was described independently of village localization by overlaying a 2-km hexagonal grid over the region. Specifically, hierarchical classification on principal components, using remote sensing data of high spatial resolution, was used to assign a landscape and a climate type to each grid cell. We used conditional inference trees and random forests to study the association between the malaria incidence profile of each village, climate and landscape. Finally, we constructed eco-epidemiological zones to stratify and map malaria risk in the region by summarizing incidence and environment association information.

RESULTS

We identified a high diversity of landscapes (n = 19) corresponding to a gradient from pristine to highly anthropogenically modified landscapes. Within this diversity of landscapes, only three were associated with malaria-affected profiles. These landscapes were composed of a mosaic of dense and sparse forest fragmented by small agricultural patches. A single climate with moderate rainfall and a temperature range suitable for mosquito presence was also associated with malaria-affected profiles. Based on these environmental associations, we identified three eco-epidemiological zones marked by later persistence of Plasmodium falciparum, high Plasmodium vivax incidence after 2018, or a seasonality pattern in the rainy season.

CONCLUSIONS

The term forest malaria covers a multitude of contexts of malaria persistence, dynamics and populations at risk. Intervention planning and surveillance could benefit from consideration of the diversity of landscapes to focus on those specifically associated with malaria transmission.

Climate parameter and malaria association in north-east India

This study was performed in order to understand the effect of climatological variables on the malaria situation in the north-east region of India, which is prolonged by the disease. Time-series analysis of major climate parameters like rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture distributions is carried out, and their correlation with the malaria incidence is quantified state-wise, which is the unique part of the study. The correlation analysis reveals that malaria is significantly related with the maximum temperature and soil moisture in three out of eight states in NE India. To assess the climate variability, the inter-dependency between the meteorological parameters is obtained and the state wise correlation matrix for all states are reported. The analysis shows that maximum and mean temperature has highest positive correlation whereas minimum temperature and relative humidity has negative correlation. The climate-malaria relation is being carried out in the study region using the regression analysis and the results revealed that the regional climate has the most impact for the malaria incidence in the state of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland and in other states the impact is moderate. Analysis of variance modelling in the regions also indicates the degree of the fitment of both the data sets with the regression model and it is observed that the relation is also significant in the same 4 states. As a case study the impact of large scale oscillations like El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the malaria load is also assessed which can be a good indicator in the prediction of the climate and in turn the malaria incidences over the region.

Malaria in Angola: recent progress, challenges and future opportunities using parasite demography studies

Over the past two decades, a considerable expansion of malaria interventions has occurred at the national level in Angola, together with cross-border initiatives and regional efforts in southern Africa. Currently, Angola aims to consolidate malaria control and to accelerate the transition from control to pre-elimination, along with other country members of the Elimination 8 initiative. However, the tremendous heterogeneity in malaria prevalence among Angolan provinces, as well as internal population movements and migration across borders, represent major challenges for the Angolan National Malaria Control Programme. This review aims to contribute to the understanding of factors underlying the complex malaria situation in Angola and to encourage future research studies on transmission dynamics and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum, important areas to complement host epidemiological information and to help reenergize the goal of malaria elimination in the country.

The need for larval source management accompanying urban development projects in malaria endemic areas: a case study on Bioko Island

Background

In 2017, several new housing districts were constructed on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. This case study assessed the impact construction projects had on mosquito larval habitats and the effectiveness of larval source management in reducing malaria vector density within the surrounding area.

Methods

Anopheline larval presence was assessed at 11 new construction sites by the proportion of larval habitats containing Anopheline pupae and late instar larval stages. Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) larvicide was applied weekly to nine locations for 30 weeks, while two locations received no larvicide and acted as controls. Adult mosquito density was monitored via human landing collections in adjacent communities of six construction sites, including the two control sites.

Results

The sites that received Bti had significantly lower observation rates of both pupae (3.2% vs. 18.0%; p < 0.001) and late instar Anopheles spp. mosquitoes (14.1 vs. 43.6%; p < 0.001) compared to the two untreated sites. Anopheles spp. accounted for 67% of mosquitoes collected with human landing collections and were captured at significantly lower levels in communities adjacent to treated construction sites compared to untreated sites (p < 0.001), with an estimated 38% reduction in human biting rate (IRR: 0.62, 95% CI IRR: 0.55, 0.69). Seven months after the start of the study, untreated sites were treated due to ethical concerns given results from treatment sties, necessitating immediate Bti application. The following week, the number of habitats, the proportion of larval sites with Anopheles spp. pupae, late instars, and adult biting rates in adjacent communities to these sites all decreased to comparable levels across all sites.

Conclusion

Findings suggest larval source management represents an effective intervention to suppress mosquito populations during infrastructure development. Incorporating larval source management into ongoing and planned construction initiatives represents an opportunity to fine tune vector control in response to anthropogenetic changes. Ideally, this should become standard practice in malaria-endemic regions in order to reduce viable mosquito habitats that are common by-products of construction.

The presence of Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium knowlesi in near malaria elimination setting in western Indonesia

Background

Indonesia is progressing towards malaria elimination. To achieve this goal, intervention measures must be addressed to cover all Plasmodium species. Comprehensive control measures and surveillance programmes must be intensified. This study aims to determine the prevalence of microscopic and submicroscopic malaria in Langkat district, North Sumatera Province, Indonesia.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in six villages in Langkat district, North Sumatera Province in June 2019. Data were recorded using a standardized questionnaire. Finger pricked blood samples were obtained for malaria examination using rapid diagnostic test, thick and thin blood smears, and polymerase chain reaction.

Results

A total of 342 individuals were included in the study. Of them, one (0.3%) had a microscopic Plasmodium malariae infection, no positive RDT examination, and three (0.9%) were positive for P. malariae (n = 1) and Plasmodium knowlesi (n = 2). The distribution of bed net ownership was owned by 40% of the study participants. The participants had a house within a radius of 100–500 m from the forest (86.3%) and had the housing material of cement floor (56.1%), a tin roof (82.2%), wooden wall (35.7%), bamboo wall (28.1%), and brick wall (21.6%).

Conclusion

Malaria incidence has substantially decreased in Langkat, North Sumatera, Indonesia. However, submicroscopic infection remains in the population and may contribute to further transmission. Surveillance should include the detection of microscopic undetected parasites, to enable the achievement of malaria elimination.

A Comparative Study of Asymptomatic Malaria in a Forest Rural and Depleted Forest Urban Setting during a Low Malaria Transmission and COVID-19 Pandemic Period

The global malaria morbidity and mortality witnessed an increase from 2019 to 2020 partly due to disruptions in control programs' activities imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, there is still a significant burden of malaria in Cameroon which needs attention from all fronts to attain elimination goals. It is normally expected that a typical forest ecology that has undergone urbanization and subjected to high rates of ecological instabilities should also have a shift from characteristic perennial malaria transmission and a shift in the type of malaria endemicity plaguing such distorted forest ecology. In this observational comparative study, we randomly enrolled participants from rural and urban settings of a forest zone during a low malaria transmission period, which coincided with the onset of COVID-19 pandemic. An optimized structured questionnaire was employed, to collect socio-demographic data and associated risk factors. The CareStart™ Malaria HRP2 antigen test was performed on participants from both settings to determine the prevalence of community asymptomatic malaria. Of 307 participants, 188 (61.0%) were from the rural, while 119 (38.8%) from the urban community. The overall prevalence of asymptomatic malaria (27.0%) detected Plasmodium falciparum antigen in 83 participants. The urban community's prevalence was 4.2% (5 positives) while the rural community's was 41.5% (78 positives). In simple logistic regression models, rural forest community and farm around the house were statistically significant predictors of testing positive (coefficient 2.8, 95% CI 1.8-3.7, p value<0.001) and (coefficient 3.1, 95% CI 1.1-5.1, p value =0.003), respectively. In the multivariate model, the strongest predictor of testing positive was living in a rural community, with p < 0.001 and odds ratio of 10.9 (95% CI, 3.8-31.8). These results indicate that during a low transmission period, the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria differs between depleted urban and rural forested settings, suggesting a need for strategic target intervention for the control of asymptomatic malaria.

Risk factors associated with malaria infection along China–Myanmar border: a case–control study

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has certificated China malaria free, but imported malaria is a continuous challenge in preventing reintroduction of malaria in the border area of China. Understanding risk factors of malaria along China–Myanmar border is benefit for preventing reintroduction of malaria in China and achieving the WHO’s malaria elimination goal in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS).

Methods

This is a case–control study with one malaria case matched to two controls, in which cases were microscopy-confirmed malaria patients and controls were feverish people with microscopy-excluded malaria. A matched logistic regression analysis (LRA) was used to identify risk factors associated with malaria infection.

Results

From May 2016 through October 2017, the study recruited 223 malaria cases (152 in China and 71 in Myanmar) and 446 controls (304 in China and 142 in Myanmar). All the 152 cases recruited in China were imported malaria. Independent factors associated with malaria infection were overnight out of home in one month prior to attendance of health facilities (adjusted odd ratio [AOR] 13.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.32–28.28, P < 0.0001), staying overnight in rural lowland and foothill (AOR 2.73, 95% CI: 1.45–5.14, P = 0.0019), staying overnight at altitude < 500 m (AOR 5.66, 95% CI: 3.01–10.71, P < 0.0001) and streamlets ≤ 100 m (AOR9.98, 95% CI: 4.96–20.09, P < 0.0001) in the border areas of Myanmar; and people lacking of knowledge of malaria transmission (AOR 2.17, 95% CI: 1.42–3.32, P = 0.0004).

Conclusions

Malaria transmission is highly focalized in lowland and foothill in the border areas of Myanmar. The risk factors associated with malaria infection are overnight staying out of home, at low altitude areas, proximity to streamlets and lack of knowledge of malaria transmission. To prevent reintroduction of malaria transmission in China and achieve the WHO goal of malaria elimination in the GMS, cross-border collaboration is continuously necessary, and health education is sorely needed for people in China to maintain their malaria knowledge and vigilance, and in Myanmar to improve their ability of personal protection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04312-5.

Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win-win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control

As sustainable development practitioners have worked to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all" and "conserve life on land and below water", what progress has been made with win-win interventions that reduce human infectious disease burdens while advancing conservation goals? Using a systematic literature review, we identified 46 proposed solutions, which we then investigated individually using targeted literature reviews. The proposed solutions addressed diverse conservation threats and human infectious diseases, and thus, the proposed interventions varied in scale, costs, and impacts. Some potential solutions had medium-quality to high-quality evidence for previous success in achieving proposed impacts in one or both sectors. However, there were notable evidence gaps within and among solutions, highlighting opportunities for further research and adaptive implementation. Stakeholders seeking win-win interventions can explore this Review and an online database to find and tailor a relevant solution or brainstorm new solutions.

Prevalence of simian malaria among macaques in Malaysia (2000–2021): A systematic review

Background

The aim of Malaysia to eliminate malaria nationwide by 2020 seems need to be prolonged. Whilst Malaysia has successfully eliminated human malaria transmission, simian malaria parasites such as Plasmodium knowlesi, P. cynomolgi, P. inui and P. cynomolgi are the emerging cause of malaria in humans. The epidemiological study of simian malaria in primates provides useful information in identifying the risk of human-macaques Plasmodium infection.

Methodology/Principal findings

This study was performed to gather all available data in terms of simian malaria epidemiology study among macaques in Malaysia over the last two decades. This systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines to select appropriate articles as references. Data searches were performed through international databases such as Google Scholar, PubMed, CrossRef, Scopus, Web of Science and Science Direct for original articles published from 2000 until 2021. The review identified seven simian malaria epidemiology studies in Malaysia over the 20-year study period. Most studies were conducted in Peninsular Malaysia (5/7; 71%) followed by East Malaysia (2/7; 29%). All studies showed positive detection of Plasmodium parasites in macaques. The most prevalent Plasmodium species in macaques was P. inui (49.27%) and the least prevalent was P. fieldi (4.76%). The prevalence of simian malaria was higher in East Malaysia compared to Peninsular Malaysia. The mono, dual and triple infection types were the most common among macaques.

Conclusion/Significance

The non-human primates like macaques are the reservoir of simian plasmodium in Malaysia. Hence, the study of host epidemiology is an important insight to public health management as there is a high occurrence of simian malaria in Malaysia. The right measurement can be taken as well to prevent the transmission of simian malaria from macaques to humans.

Macaques are the most abundant primates in south east Asia including Malaysia. Due to deforestation, macaques came closer to human settlements searching for food. Macaques like the long-tailed and pig-tailed harbouring several Plasmodium species that can cause zoonotic malaria in humans. Close contact of human and macaques cause zoonotic transmission of simian malaria. The simian plasmodium such as P. knowlesi, P. inui and P. cynomolgi have been found infecting humans in Malaysia; mainly in East Malaysia (Borneo). Zoonotic malaria poses great risk to public health as prolonged in treatment often lead to fatal outcomes. Hence the knowledge of prevalence and diversity is important to access, this can therefore enlighten the authorities to plan a control strategy that will minimize the zoonotic transmission between non-human primate host to human. This systematic review has summarised all publish data of macaques-plasmodium infection from the year 2000–2021 by using PRISMA guidelines. Our result showed that P. inui (49.27%) is the most prevalent Plasmodium species found in macaques, followed by P. cynomolgi (33.05%) and P. knowlesi (26.86%). Simian plasmodium prevalent was also found higher in East Malaysia (97.0%) compared to Peninsular Malaysia (45.18%). The significant increase of simian malaria incidences in human have jeopardized the national malaria elimination programme. Hence, this study provides a compact insight into the plasmodium epidemiology of macaques in Malaysia.

Co-production of knowledge as part of a OneHealth approach to better control zoonotic diseases

There is increased global and national attention on the need for effective strategies to control zoonotic diseases. Quick, effective action is, however, hampered by poor evidence-bases and limited coordination between stakeholders from relevant sectors such as public and animal health, wildlife and forestry sectors at different scales, who may not usually work together. The OneHealth approach recognises the value of cross-sectoral evaluation of human, animal and environmental health questions in an integrated, holistic and transdisciplinary manner to reduce disease impacts and/or mitigate risks. Co-production of knowledge is also widely advocated to improve the quality and acceptability of decision-making across sectors and may be particularly important when it comes to zoonoses. This paper brings together OneHealth and knowledge co-production and reflects on lessons learned for future OneHealth co-production processes by describing a process implemented to understand spill-over and identify disease control and mitigation strategies for a zoonotic disease in Southern India (Kyasanur Forest Disease). The co-production process aimed to develop a joint decision-support tool with stakeholders, and we complemented our approach with a simple retrospective theory of change on researcher expectations of the system-level outcomes of the co-production process. Our results highlight that while co-production in OneHealth is a difficult and resource intensive process, requiring regular iterative adjustments and flexibility, the beneficial outcomes justify its adoption. A key future aim should be to improve and evaluate the degree of inter-sectoral collaboration required to achieve the aims of OneHealth. We conclude by providing guidelines based on our experience to help funders and decision-makers support future co-production processes.

Morphological and molecular identification reveals a high diversity of Anopheles species in the forest region of the Cambodia-Laos border

Background

To develop an effective malaria vector intervention method in forested international border regions within the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), more in-depth studies should be conducted on local Anopheles species composition and bionomic features. There is a paucity of comprehensive surveys of biodiversity integrating morphological and molecular species identification conducted within the border of Laos and Cambodia.

Methods

A total of 2394 adult mosquitoes were trapped in the Cambodia–Laos border region. We first performed morphological identification of Anopheles mosquitoes and subsequently performed molecular identification using 412 recombinant DNA–internal transcribed spacer 2 (rDNA-ITS2) and 391 mitochondrial DNA–cytochrome c oxidase subunit 2 (mtDNA-COII) sequences. The molecular and morphological identification results were compared, and phylogenetic analysis of rDNA-ITS2 and mtDNA-COII was conducted for the sequence divergence among species.

Results

Thirteen distinct species of Anopheles were molecularly identified in a 26,415 km² border region in Siem Pang (Cambodia) and Pathoomphone (Laos). According to the comparisons of morphological and molecular identity, the interpretation of local species composition for dominant species in the Cambodia–Laos border (An. dirus, An. maculatus, An. philippinensis, An. kochi and An. sinensis) achieved the highest accuracy of morphological identification, from 98.37 to 100%. In contrast, the other species which were molecularly identified were less frequently identified correctly (0–58.3%) by morphological methods. The average rDNA-ITS2 and mtDNA-COII interspecific divergence was respectively 318 times and 15 times higher than their average intraspecific divergence. The barcoding gap ranged from 0.042 to 0.193 for rDNA-ITS2, and from 0.033 to 0.047 for mtDNA-COII.

Conclusions

The Cambodia–Laos border hosts a high diversity of Anopheles species. The morphological identification of Anopheles species provides higher accuracy for dominant species than for other species. Molecular methods combined with morphological analysis to determine species composition, population dynamics and bionomic characteristics can facilitate a better understanding of the factors driving malaria transmission and the effects of interventions, and can aid in achieving the goal of eliminating malaria.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05167-0.

Molecular phylogeny of Anopheles nivipes based on mtDNA-COII and mosquito diversity in Cambodia-Laos border

BACKGROUND

Few studies have been conducted to investigate the distribution of mosquito vectors and the population structure of secondary vectors in the border region of Cambodia-Laos. The aim of this work was to study the mosquito diversity and molecular phylogeny of secondary vectors, i.e., Anopheles nivipes in this area.

METHODS

1440 adult mosquitoes were trapped in the Cambodia-Laos border. mtDNA-COII were amplified and sequenced from 53 An. nivipes DNA samples. Together with COII sequences deposited in GenBank, a total of 86 COII sequences were used for examining population variations, genetic differentiation, spatial population structure, population expansion, and gene flow patterns.

RESULTS

The adult mosquitoes were classified into 5 genera and 27 species in this border region. The predominant genera were Culex (60.07%, 865/1440) and Anopheles (31.25%, 450/1440), and the major Anopheles species were An. nivipes (73.56%, 331/450) and Anopheles maculatus (14.22%, 64/450). Based on sequences analysis of COII, a high level of genetic differentiation was reported in two Northwest India (Cheema and Bathinda, Punjab) and Cambodia-Laos (Siem Pang, Stung treng) populations (F_ST = 0.97824, 0.97343, P < 0.05), as well as lower gene flow (Nm = 0.01112, 0.01365) in the An. nivipes populations. Phylogenetic analysis and SAMOVA revealed a gene barrier restricting gene flow among three An. nivipes populations. Mantel test suggested a significant correlation between geography and gene distance in all An. nivipes populations (Z = 44,983.1865, r = 0.5575, P = 0.0070). Neutrality test and Mismatch distribution revealed a recent population expansion of An. nivipes in the Cambodia-Laos population.

CONCLUSIONS

Anopheles nivipes was one of the major Anopheles species in the Cambodia-Laos border. Based on sequences analysis of COII, a genetic barrier between Cambodia-Laos and two Indian populations was found, and a recent population expanding or selecting of An. nivipes occurred in the Cambodia-Laos population, suggesting that COII might be an effective marker for describing the molecular phylogeny of An. nivipes. Further investigation and continuous surveillance of An. nivipes are warranted in this region.

Exploring agricultural land-use and childhood malaria associations in sub-Saharan Africa

Agriculture in Africa is rapidly expanding but with this comes potential disbenefits for the environment and human health. Here, we retrospectively assess whether childhood malaria in sub-Saharan Africa varies across differing agricultural land uses after controlling for socio-economic and environmental confounders. Using a multi-model inference hierarchical modelling framework, we found that rainfed cropland was associated with increased malaria in rural (OR 1.10, CI 1.03-1.18) but not urban areas, while irrigated or post flooding cropland was associated with malaria in urban (OR 1.09, CI 1.00-1.18) but not rural areas. In contrast, although malaria was associated with complete forest cover (OR 1.35, CI 1.24-1.47), the presence of natural vegetation in agricultural lands potentially reduces the odds of malaria depending on rural-urban context. In contrast, no associations with malaria were observed for natural vegetation interspersed with cropland (veg-dominant mosaic). Agricultural expansion through rainfed or irrigated cropland may increase childhood malaria in rural or urban contexts in sub-Saharan Africa but retaining some natural vegetation within croplands could help mitigate this risk and provide environmental co-benefits.

Impact of extractive industries on malaria prevalence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a population-based cross-sectional study

Extraction of natural resources through mining and logging activities provides revenue and employment across sub-Saharan Africa, a region with the highest burden of malaria globally. The extent to which mining and logging influence malaria transmission in Africa remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluate associations between mining, logging, and malaria in the high transmission setting of the Democratic Republic of the Congo using population-representative malaria survey results and geographic data for environmental features and mining and logging concessions. We find elevated malaria prevalence among individuals in rural areas exposed to mining; however, we also detect significant spatial confounding among locations. Upon correction, effect estimates for mining and logging shifted toward the null and we did not find sufficient evidence to detect an association with malaria. Our findings reveal a complex interplay between mining, logging, space, and malaria prevalence. While mining concessions alone may not drive the high prevalence, unobserved features of mining-exposed areas, such as human migration, changing vector populations, or parasite genetics, may instead be responsible.

The Impact of Deforestation, Urbanization, and Changing Land Use Patterns on the Ecology of Mosquito and Tick-Borne Diseases in Central America

Central America is a unique geographical region that connects North and South America, enclosed by the Caribbean Sea to the East, and the Pacific Ocean to the West. This region, encompassing Belize, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua, is highly vulnerable to the emergence or resurgence of mosquito-borne and tick-borne diseases due to a combination of key ecological and socioeconomic determinants acting together, often in a synergistic fashion. Of particular interest are the effects of land use changes, such as deforestation-driven urbanization and forest degradation, on the incidence and prevalence of these diseases, which are not well understood. In recent years, parts of Central America have experienced social and economic improvements; however, the region still faces major challenges in developing effective strategies and significant investments in public health infrastructure to prevent and control these diseases. In this article, we review the current knowledge and potential impacts of deforestation, urbanization, and other land use changes on mosquito-borne and tick-borne disease transmission in Central America and how these anthropogenic drivers could affect the risk for disease emergence and resurgence in the region. These issues are addressed in the context of other interconnected environmental and social challenges.

Factors associated with the decline of malaria in Myanmar's Ayeyarwady Region between 2013 and 2017

The burden of malaria in Myanmar has declined rapidly in recent years; cases decreased from 333,871 in 2013 to 85,019 in 2017 (75% decrease). Decline of malaria in the Ayeyarwady Region of Myanmar reflects this trend with an 86% decrease in cases over this period. In this exploratory analysis, quantitative and qualitative information were assessed to explore potential factors responsible for the decline of malaria in Ayeyarwady. Data on malaria incidence, programmatic financing, surveillance, case management, vector control interventions, climate and ecological factors, and policies and guidelines spanning 2013 to 2017 were compiled. Poisson regression models that adjust for correlation were used to analyze the association between annual malaria case numbers with malaria intervention factors at the township level. Between 2013 and 2017, there was a decrease in mean township-level malaria incidence per 1000 from 3.03 (SD 4.59) to 0.34 (SD 0.79); this decline coincided with the implementation of the government’s multi-pronged malaria elimination strategy, an increase of approximately 50.8 million USD in malaria funding nationally, and a period of deforestation in the region. Increased funding in Ayeyarwady was invested in interventions associated with the decline in caseload, and the important roles of surveillance and case management should be maintained while Myanmar works towards malaria elimination.

Epidemiology of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi in changing landscapes

Within the past two decades, incidence of human cases of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has increased markedly. P. knowlesi is now the most common cause of human malaria in Malaysia and threatens to undermine malaria control programmes across Southeast Asia. The emergence of zoonotic malaria corresponds to a period of rapid deforestation within this region. These environmental changes impact the distribution and behaviour of the simian hosts, mosquito vector species and human populations, creating new opportunities for P. knowlesi transmission. Here, we review how landscape changes can drive zoonotic disease emergence, examine the extent and causes of these changes across Southeast and identify how these mechanisms may be impacting P. knowlesi dynamics. We review the current spatial epidemiology of reported P. knowlesi infections in people and assess how these demographic and environmental changes may lead to changes in transmission patterns. Finally, we identify opportunities to improve P. knowlesi surveillance and develop targeted ecological interventions within these landscapes.

The association between gold mining and malaria in Guyana: a statistical inference and time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Guyana reported a significant rise in malaria between 2008 and 2014. As there was no evidence of impairment of national malaria control strategies, public health authorities attributed the surge to a temporal increase in gold mining activity in forested regions. However, systematic analysis of this association is lacking because of the difficulties associated with collecting reliable data for both malaria and mining. We aimed to investigate the association between the international gold price and Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Guyana between 2007 and 2019. We also aimed to evaluate the association between P falciparum cases and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern, which has previously been suggested as a major driver of malaria.

METHODS

We used national malaria surveillance data from Guyana to estimate the correlation over time between the international gold price and reported P falciparum infections in individuals who were likely to be involved in mining activities (ie, men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years who were living in mining regions) for each month between 2007 and 2019. We compared the estimates with those obtained from individuals who were unlikely to be directly involved in mining activities (ie, women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults aged over 70 years) and estimates obtained from individuals living in non-mining regions. We also evaluated the correlation between P falciparum infections and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern in the same subpopulations and time period. Lastly, we evaluated the performance of a statistical model formulated to estimate P falciparum infections in real time using the international gold price as the predictor variable.

FINDINGS

The proportion of P falciparum malaria cases in temporary residents, which was used as a proxy for circulating individuals involved in gold mining, was highest during the years of peak gold price (ie, between 2008 and 2014). Cases of malaria in all demographic groups showed a strong positive correlation with the gold price, but only in regions with mining camps (0·88 [95% CI 0·84-0·89] for boys and men aged between 15 and 50 years and 0·80 [0·73-0·85] for the aggregated population of women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults older than 70 years). The highest correlation occurred earlier in men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years, the demographic most likely to be miners, suggesting that transmission in mining camps is followed by infections in the community. On the basis of these findings, we were able to reliably forecast P falciparum malaria trends using only the gold price as the predictor variable. A 1% increase in gold price was associated with a 2·13% increase in P falciparum infections after 1 month in the mining populations, and with a 1·63% increase after 2 months in the non-mining populations. Lastly, La Niña climatic events showed an additional, smaller positive correlation with malaria transmission.

INTERPRETATION

Our analysis provides evidence that the P falciparum malaria surge observed in Guyana between 2008 and 2014 was likely to have been driven mainly by an increase in gold mining, while climate factors might have contributed synergistically. We propose that the international gold price over time is a useful indicator of malaria trends. We conclude that the feasibility of malaria elimination in Guyana, and in other areas in the Amazon where malaria and gold mining overlap, should be evaluated against the challenges posed by rapidly rising gold prices.

FUNDING

Ramón Areces Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute of General Medical Sciences.

Malaria Cases in a Tertiary Hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: A 16-Year (2005-2020) Retrospective Review

While there has been a tremendous decline in malaria disease burden in the remote parts of Malaysia, little is known about malaria incidence in its urban localities. This study aimed to analyze trends of malaria cases in urban Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. All suspected cases presented to a university hospital in Kuala Lumpur from January 2005 to December 2020 were examined by microscopy. Infection status was analyzed using descriptive statistics and curve estimation analysis. Of 3105 blood films examined, 92 (3%) were microscopically confirmed malaria cases. Plasmodium vivax infections accounted for the majority (36.9%) of all malaria cases. Nearly half (47.8%) of cases were found among foreign cases (p < 0.001). The majority of foreign cases were male (86.4%) and came from Southeast Asian countries (65.9%). The curve estimation analysis showed significant decreases in malaria cases due to P. vivax (R² = 0.598; p < 0.001) and Plasmodium falciparum (R² = 0.298, p = 0.029), but increases for Plasmodium knowlesi (R² = 0.325, p = 0.021) during the 16 years. This study showed that malaria incidence in urban Kuala Lumpur is low and has remained stable since 2005. However, P. knowlesi has played a significant role in the increase in overall malaria in the area, highlighting the importance of continued vigilance and improved surveillance.

In search of the last malaria cases: ethnographic methods for community and private-sector engagement in malaria elimination in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia

Background

Despite significant strides made in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality in the Greater Mekong Subregion, malaria transmission continues amongst the most ‘hard-to-reach’, such as forest-goers and mobile and migrant populations, who face access obstacles to malaria diagnosis and treatment. As such, regional malaria elimination strategies endeavour to incorporate the private sector and local communities in improving surveillance and detection of the last malaria cases in remote forested areas. The question remains, however, whether such strategies can reach these hard-to-reach populations and effectively reduce their disproportionate burden of malaria. This paper evaluates the strategy of community and private sector engagement in a malaria elimination project in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.

Methods

Ethnographic research, incorporating in-depth interviews, participant observations with informal discussions, and group discussions were conducted in Bu Gia Map commune, Binh Phuc province of Vietnam; in Phouvong district, Attapeu province of Laos; and, in nine newly established and informal communities in the provinces of Mondul Kiri, Steung Treng, Kratie, Kampong Thom, and Prah Vihear of Cambodia.

Results

Different types of factors limited or enhanced the effectiveness of the participatory approaches in the different settings. In Vietnam, inter-ethnic tensions and sensitivity around forest-work negatively affected local population’s health-seeking behaviour and consequent uptake of malaria testing and treatment. In Laos, the location of the project collaborative pharmacies in the district-centre were a mismatch for reaching hard-to-reach populations in remote villages. In Cambodia, the strategy of recruiting community malaria-workers, elected by the community members, did manage to reach the remote forested areas where people visited or stayed.

Conclusions

‘Hard-to-reach’ populations remain hard to reach without proper research identifying the socio-economic-political environment and the key dynamics determining uptake in involved communities and populations. Solid implementation research with a strong ethnographic component is required to tailor malaria elimination strategies to local contexts.

Study protocol: an open-label individually randomised controlled trial to assess the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine prophylaxis for malaria among forest goers in Cambodia

INTRODUCTION

In the Greater Mekong Subregion, adults are at highest risk for malaria. The most relevant disease vectors bite during daytime and outdoors which makes forest work a high-risk activity for malaria. The absence of effective vector control strategies and limited periods of exposure during forest visits suggest that chemoprophylaxis could be an appropriate strategy to protect forest goers against malaria.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The protocol describes an open-label randomised controlled trial of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) versus multivitamin as prophylaxis against malaria among forest goers aged 16-65 years in rural northeast Cambodia. The primary objective is to compare the efficacy of the artemisinin combination therapy AL versus a multivitamin preparation as defined by the 28-day PCR parasite positivity rate and incidence of confirmed clinical malaria of any species. The sample size is 2200 patient-episodes of duration 1 month in each arm. The duration of follow-up and prophylaxis for each participant is 1, 2 or 3 consecutive 28-day periods, followed by a further 28 days of post-exposure prophylaxis, depending on whether they continue to visit the forest. Analysis will be done both by intention to treat and per protocol.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All participants will provide written, informed consent. Ethical approval was obtained from the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee and the Cambodia National Ethics Committee for Health Research. Results will be disseminated by peer-reviewed open access publication together with open data.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04041973; Pre-result.

Forest malaria: the prevailing obstacle for malaria control and elimination in India

Despite the decrease in malaria mortality and morbidity, it remains a significant public health problem in India. India is targeting malaria elimination from the country by 2030. Different areas in India are in different phases of malaria elimination. The emerging resistance in vectors as well parasite have added necessity to accelerate the malaria elimination programme. Forested areas remain the foci for malaria transmission due to favourable human and environmental factors. Here, we analysed the longitudinal data from 2000 to 2019 to see the trends in forest malaria in India. Population living in forested areas are major malaria contributors. From 2000 to 2019, ~32% of malaria cases and 42% of malaria related deaths were reported from forested districts which represent only ~6.6% of the total Indian population. Increasing insecticide resistance, a high percentage of submicroscopic infections and challenging to test and treat communities are the crucial components of the prevailing obstacles of forested malaria. To achieve the elimination goal, efforts should be intensified with more resources diverted to the forested areas. Malaria control in forested areas will bring fruitful results for malaria control in India.

Naturally Acquired Human Plasmodium cynomolgi and P. knowlesi Infections, Malaysian Borneo

To monitor the incidence of Plasmodium knowlesi infections and determine whether other simian malaria parasites are being transmitted to humans, we examined 1,047 blood samples from patients with malaria at Kapit Hospital in Kapit, Malaysia, during June 24, 2013–December 31, 2017. Using nested PCR assays, we found 845 (80.6%) patients had either P. knowlesi monoinfection (n = 815) or co-infection with other Plasmodium species (n = 30). We noted the annual number of these zoonotic infections increased greatly in 2017 (n = 284). We identified 6 patients, 17–65 years of age, with P. cynomolgi and P. knowlesi co-infections, confirmed by phylogenetic analyses of the Plasmodium cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene sequences. P. knowlesi continues to be a public health concern in the Kapit Division of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. In addition, another simian malaria parasite, P. cynomolgi, also is an emerging cause of malaria in humans.

Spatio-temporal associations between deforestation and malaria incidence in Lao PDR

As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.

Biting mosquitos spread the malaria parasite to humans. Along the Mekong River in Southeast Asia, spending time in the surrounding forest increases a person's risk of malaria. This has led to a debate about whether deforestation in this area, which is called the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), will increase or decrease malaria transmission. The answer to the debate is not clear because some malaria-transmitting mosquitos thrive in heavily forested areas, in particular in the GMS, while others prefer less forested areas.

Scientists studying malaria in the Amazon in South America suspect that malaria transmission increases shortly after deforestation but decreases six to eight years later. Some studies have tested this ‘frontier malaria’ theory but the results have been conflicting. Fewer studies have tested this theory in Southeast Asia. But deforestation has been blamed for recent malaria outbreaks in the GMS.

Using data on malaria testing and forest cover in the GMS, Rerolle et al. show that deforestation around villages increases malaria transmission in the first two years and decreases malaria rates later. This trend was driven mostly by a type of malaria called Plasmodium falciparum and was less strong for Plasmodium vivax. The location of deforested areas also mattered. Deforestation within one to 10 kilometer of villages did not affect malaria rates. Deforestation further away in about a 30 kilometer radius did affect malaria transmission. Rerolle et al. suggest this may be because villagers have to spend longer times trekking through forests to hunt or harvest wood when the wider area is deforested.

Currently, National Malaria Control Programs in the GMS focus their efforts on reducing forest-related transmission. This study strengthens the evidence supporting this approach. The results also suggest that different malaria elimination strategies may be necessary for different types of malaria parasite. Using this new information could help malaria control programs better target resources or educate villagers on how to protect themselves. The innovative methods used by Rerolle et al. reveal a more complex role of deforestation in malaria transmission and may inspire other scientists to think more carefully about environmental drivers of malaria.

Achieving global malaria eradication in changing landscapes

Land use and land cover changes, such as deforestation, agricultural expansion and urbanization, are one of the largest anthropogenic environmental changes globally. Recent initiatives to evaluate the feasibility of malaria eradication have highlighted impacts of landscape changes on malaria transmission and the potential of these changes to undermine malaria control and elimination efforts. Multisectoral approaches are needed to detect and minimize negative impacts of land use and land cover changes on malaria transmission while supporting development aiding malaria control, elimination and ultimately eradication. Pathways through which land use and land cover changes disrupt social and ecological systems to increase or decrease malaria risks are outlined, identifying priorities and opportunities for a global malaria eradication campaign. The impacts of land use and land cover changes on malaria transmission are complex and highly context-specific, with effects changing over time and space. Landscape changes are only one element of a complex development process with wider economic and social dimensions affecting human health and wellbeing. While deforestation and other landscape changes threaten to undermine malaria control efforts and have driven the emergence of zoonotic malaria, most of the malaria elimination successes have been underpinned by agricultural development and land management. Malaria eradication is not feasible without addressing these changing risks while, conversely, consideration of malaria impacts in land management decisions has the potential to significantly accelerate progress towards eradication. Multisectoral cooperation and approaches to linking malaria control and environmental science, such as conducting locally relevant ecological monitoring, integrating landscape data into malaria surveillance systems and designing environmental management strategies to reduce malaria burdens, are essential to achieve malaria eradication.

Anthropogenic landscape decreases mosquito biodiversity and drives malaria vector proliferation in the Amazon rainforest

Inter-relationships among mosquito vectors, Plasmodium parasites, human ecology, and biotic and abiotic factors, drive malaria risk. Specifically, rural landscapes shaped by human activities have a great potential to increase the abundance of malaria vectors, putting many vulnerable people at risk. Understanding at which point the abundance of vectors increases in the landscape can help to design policies and interventions for effective and sustainable control. Using a dataset of adult female mosquitoes collected at 79 sites in malaria endemic areas in the Brazilian Amazon, this study aimed to (1) verify the association among forest cover percentage (PLAND), forest edge density (ED), and variation in mosquito diversity; and to (2) test the hypothesis of an association between landscape structure (i.e., PLAND and ED) and Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Root) dominance. Mosquito collections were performed employing human landing catch (HLC) (peridomestic habitat) and Shannon trap combined with HLC (forest fringe habitat). Nyssorhynchus darlingi abundance was used as the response variable in a generalized linear mixed model, and the Shannon diversity index (H') of the Culicidae community, PLAND, and the distance house-water drainage were used as predictors. Three ED categories were also used as random effects. A path analysis was used to understand comparative strengths of direct and indirect relationships among Amazon vegetation classes, Culicidae community, and Ny. darlingi abundance. Our results demonstrate that Ny. darlingi is negatively affected by H´ and PLAND of peridomestic habitat, and that increasing these variables (one-unit value at β0 = 768) leads to a decrease of 226 (P < 0.001) and 533 (P = 0.003) individuals, respectively. At the forest fringe, a similar result was found for H' (β1 = -218; P < 0.001) and PLAND (β1 = -337; P = 0.04). Anthropogenic changes in the Amazon vegetation classes decreased mosquito biodiversity, leading to increased Ny. darlingi abundance. Changes in landscape structure, specifically decreases in PLAND and increases in ED, led to Ny. darlingi becoming the dominant species, increasing malaria risk. Ecological mechanisms involving changes in landscape and mosquito species composition can help to understand changes in the epidemiology of malaria.

Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria in Sabah, Malaysia, 2015-2017: Ongoing Increase in Incidence Despite Near-elimination of the Human-only Plasmodium Species

BACKGROUND

Malaysia aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, while cases of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax have decreased substantially, the incidence of zoonotic malaria from Plasmodium knowlesi continues to increase, presenting a major challenge to regional malaria control efforts. Here we report incidence of all Plasmodium species in Sabah, including zoonotic P. knowlesi, during 2015-2017.

METHODS

Microscopy-based malaria notification data and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results were obtained from the Sabah Department of Health and State Public Health Laboratory, respectively, from January 2015 to December 2017. From January 2016 this was complemented by a statewide prospective hospital surveillance study. Databases were matched, and species was determined by PCR, or microscopy if PCR was not available.

RESULTS

A total of 3867 malaria cases were recorded between 2015 and 2017, with PCR performed in 93%. Using PCR results, and microscopy if PCR was unavailable, P. knowlesi accounted for 817 (80%), 677 (88%), and 2030 (98%) malaria cases in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. P. falciparum accounted for 110 (11%), 45 (6%), and 23 (1%) cases and P. vivax accounted for 61 (6%), 17 (2%), and 8 (0.4%) cases, respectively. Of those with P. knowlesi, the median age was 35 (interquartile range: 24-47) years, and 85% were male.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaysia is approaching elimination of the human-only Plasmodium species. However, the ongoing increase in P. knowlesi incidence presents a major challenge to malaria control and warrants increased focus on knowlesi-specific prevention activities. Wider molecular surveillance in surrounding countries is required.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Peninsular Malaysia, 2011 to 2018

The life-threatening zoonotic malaria cases caused by Plasmodium knowlesi in Malaysia has recently been reported to be the highest among all malaria cases; however, previous studies have mainly focused on the transmission of P. knowlesi in Malaysian Borneo (East Malaysia). This study aimed to describe the transmission patterns of P. knowlesi infection in Peninsular Malaysia (West Malaysia). The spatial distribution of P. knowlesi was mapped across Peninsular Malaysia using Geographic Information System techniques. Local indicators of spatial associations were used to evaluate spatial patterns of P. knowlesi incidence. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were utilized to analyze the monthly incidence of knowlesi malaria in the hotspot region from 2012 to 2017 and to forecast subsequent incidence in 2018. Spatial analysis revealed that hotspots were clustered in the central-northern region of Peninsular Malaysia. Time series analysis revealed the strong seasonality of transmission from January to March. This study provides fundamental information on the spatial distribution and temporal dynamic of P. knowlesi in Peninsular Malaysia from 2011 to 2018. Current control policy should consider different strategies to prevent the transmission of both human and zoonotic malaria, particularly in the hotspot region, to ensure a successful elimination of malaria in the future.

Predicting disease risk areas through co-production of spatial models: The example of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India's forest landscapes

Zoonotic diseases affect resource-poor tropical communities disproportionately, and are linked to human use and modification of ecosystems. Disentangling the socio-ecological mechanisms by which ecosystem change precipitates impacts of pathogens is critical for predicting disease risk and designing effective intervention strategies. Despite the global "One Health" initiative, predictive models for tropical zoonotic diseases often focus on narrow ranges of risk factors and are rarely scaled to intervention programs and ecosystem use. This study uses a participatory, co-production approach to address this disconnect between science, policy and implementation, by developing more informative disease models for a fatal tick-borne viral haemorrhagic disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD), that is spreading across degraded forest ecosystems in India. We integrated knowledge across disciplines to identify key risk factors and needs with actors and beneficiaries across the relevant policy sectors, to understand disease patterns and develop decision support tools. Human case locations (2014-2018) and spatial machine learning quantified the relative role of risk factors, including forest cover and loss, host densities and public health access, in driving landscape-scale disease patterns in a long-affected district (Shivamogga, Karnataka State). Models combining forest metrics, livestock densities and elevation accurately predicted spatial patterns in human KFD cases (2014-2018). Consistent with suggestions that KFD is an "ecotonal" disease, landscapes at higher risk for human KFD contained diverse forest-plantation mosaics with high coverage of moist evergreen forest and plantation, high indigenous cattle density, and low coverage of dry deciduous forest. Models predicted new hotspots of outbreaks in 2019, indicating their value for spatial targeting of intervention. Co-production was vital for: gathering outbreak data that reflected locations of exposure in the landscape; better understanding contextual socio-ecological risk factors; and tailoring the spatial grain and outputs to the scale of forest use, and public health interventions. We argue this inter-disciplinary approach to risk prediction is applicable across zoonotic diseases in tropical settings.

Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk

Deforestation can increase the transmission of malaria. Here, we build upon the existing link between malaria risk and deforestation by investigating how the global demand for commodities that increase deforestation can also increase malaria risk. We use a database of trade relationships to link the consumption of deforestation-implicated commodities in developed countries to estimates of country-level malaria risk in developing countries. We estimate that about 20% of the malaria risk in deforestation hotspots is driven by the international trade of deforestation-implicated export commodities, such as timber, wood products, tobacco, cocoa, coffee and cotton. By linking malaria risk to final consumers of commodities, we contribute information to support demand-side policy measures to complement existing malaria control interventions, with co-benefits for reducing deforestation and forest disturbance.

Because many primary commodities cause deforestation and deforestation can increase malaria transmission, international trade can thus indirectly influence malaria risk. Here the authors use trade databases for commodites associated with deforestation to demonstrate that consumption of such commodities in developed nations could increase malaria risk in developing nations.

Forest Goers and Multidrug-Resistant Malaria in Cambodia: An Ethnographic Study

Multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria on the Cambodia-Thailand border is associated with working in forested areas. Beyond broad recognition of "forest-going" as a risk factor for malaria, little is known about different forest-going populations in this region. In Oddar Meanchey Province in northwestern Cambodia, qualitative ethnographic research was conducted to gain an in-depth understanding of how different populations, mobility and livelihood patterns, and activities within the forest intersect with potentiate malaria risk and impact on the effectiveness of malaria control and elimination strategies. We found that most forest-going in this area is associated with obtaining precious woods, particularly Siamese rosewood. In the past, at-risk populations included large groups of temporary migrants. As timber supplies have declined, so have these large migrant groups. However, groups of local residents continue to go to the forest and are staying for longer. Most forest-goers had experienced multiple episodes of malaria and were well informed about malaria risk. However, economic realities mean that local residents continue to pursue forest-based livelihoods. Severe constraints of available vector control methods mean that forest-goers have limited capacity to prevent vector exposure. As forest-goers access the forest using many different entry and exit points, border screening and treatment interventions will not be feasible. Once in the forest, groups often converge in the same areas; therefore, interventions targeting the mosquito population may have a potential role. Ultimately, a multisectoral approach as well as innovative and flexible malaria control strategies will be required if malaria elimination efforts are to be successful.

The Role of Ecological Linkage Mechanisms in Plasmodium knowlesi Transmission and Spread

Defining the linkages between landscape change, disease ecology and human health is essential to explain and predict the emergence of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria, a zoonotic parasite residing in Southeast Asian macaques, and transmitted by species of Anopheles mosquitos. Changing patterns of land use throughout Southeast Asia, particularly deforestation, are suggested to be the primary drivers behind the recent spread of this zoonotic parasite in humans. Local ecological changes at the landscape scale appear to be increasing the risk of disease in humans by altering the dynamics of transmission between the parasite and its primary hosts. This paper will focus on the emergence of P. knowlesi in humans in Malaysian Borneo and the ecological linkage mechanisms suggested to be playing an important role.

Agricultural land-uses consistently exacerbate infectious disease risks in Southeast Asia

Agriculture has been implicated as a potential driver of human infectious diseases. However, the generality of disease-agriculture relationships has not been systematically assessed, hindering efforts to incorporate human health considerations into land-use and development policies. Here we perform a meta-analysis with 34 eligible studies and show that people who live or work in agricultural land in Southeast Asia are on average 1.74 (CI 1.47-2.07) times as likely to be infected with a pathogen than those unexposed. Effect sizes are greatest for exposure to oil palm, rubber, and non-poultry based livestock farming and for hookworm (OR 2.42, CI 1.56-3.75), malaria (OR 2.00, CI 1.46-2.73), scrub typhus (OR 2.37, CI 1.41-3.96) and spotted fever group diseases (OR 3.91, CI 2.61-5.85). In contrast, no change in infection risk is detected for faecal-oral route diseases. Although responses vary by land-use and disease types, results suggest that agricultural land-uses exacerbate many infectious diseases in Southeast Asia.

Prevalence of afebrile malaria and development of risk-scores for gradation of villages: A study from a hot-spot in Odisha

Introduction

Malaria is a public health emergency in India and Odisha. The national malaria elimination programme aims to expedite early identification, treatment and follow-up of malaria cases in hot-spots through a robust health system, besides focusing on efficient vector control. This study, a result of mass screening conducted in a hot-spot in Odisha, aimed to assess prevalence, identify and estimate the risks and develop a management tool for malaria elimination.

Methods

Through a cross-sectional study and using WHO recommended Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT), 13221 individuals were screened. Information about age, gender, education and health practices were collected along with blood sample (5 μl) for malaria testing. Altitude, forestation, availability of a village health worker and distance from secondary health center were captured using panel technique. A multi-level poisson regression model was used to analyze association between risk factors and prevalence of malaria, and to estimate risk scores.

Results

The prevalence of malaria was 5.8% and afebrile malaria accounted for 79 percent of all confirmed cases. Higher proportion of Pv infections were afebrile (81%). We found the prevalence to be 1.38 (1.1664–1.6457) times higher in villages where the Accredited Social Health Activist (ASHA) didn’t stay; the risk increased by 1.38 (1.0428–1.8272) and 1.92 (1.4428–2.5764) times in mid- and high-altitude tertiles. With regard to forest coverage, villages falling under mid- and highest-tertiles were 2.01 times (1.6194–2.5129) and 2.03 times (1.5477–2.6809), respectively, more likely affected by malaria. Similarly, villages of mid tertile and lowest tertile of education had 1.73 times (1.3392–2.2586) and 2.50 times (2.009–3.1244) higher prevalence of malaria.

Conclusion

Presence of ASHA worker in villages, altitude, forestation, and education emerged as principal predictors of malaria infection in the study area. An easy-to-use risk-scoring system for ranking villages based on these risk factors could facilitate resource prioritization for malaria elimination.

Transmission risk beyond the village: entomological and human factors contributing to residual malaria transmission in an area approaching malaria elimination on the Thailand-Myanmar border

Background

A mixed methods study was conducted to look at the magnitude of residual malaria transmission (RMT) and factors contributing to low (< 1% prevalence), but sustained transmission in rural communities on the Thai–Myanmar border.

Methods

A cross-sectional behaviour and net survey, observational surveys and entomological collections in both villages and forested farm huts frequented by community members for subsistence farming practices were conducted.

Results

Community members frequently stayed overnight at subsistence farm huts or in the forest. Entomological collections showed higher biting rates of primary vectors in forested farm hut sites and in a more forested village setting compared to a village with clustered housing and better infrastructure. Despite high levels of outdoor biting, biting exposure occurred predominantly indoors, particularly for non-users of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Risk of biting exposure was exacerbated by sub-optimal coverage of LLINs, particularly in subsistence farm huts and in the forest. Furthermore, early waking hours when people had left the safety of their nets coincided with peaks in biting in later morning hours.

Conclusions

Entomological and epidemiological findings suggest drivers and modulators of sustained infection prevalence in the area to be: higher mosquito abundance in forested areas where LLINs were used less frequently or could not be used; late sleeping and waking times coinciding with peak biting hours; feeding preferences of Anopheles taking them away from contact with LLIN and indoor residual spraying (IRS), e.g. exophagy and zoophagy; non-use of LLIN and use of damaged/torn LLIN; high population movement across the border and into forested areas thereby increasing risk of exposure, decreasing use of protection and limiting access to healthcare; and, Plasmodium vivax predominance resulting in relapse(s) of previous infection. The findings highlight gaps in current intervention coverage beyond the village setting.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2852-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Characterizing local-scale heterogeneity of malaria risk: a case study in Bunkpurugu-Yunyoo district in northern Ghana

BACKGROUND

Bayesian methods have been used to generate country-level and global maps of malaria prevalence. With increasing availability of detailed malaria surveillance data, these methodologies can also be used to identify fine-scale heterogeneity of malaria parasitaemia for operational prevention and control of malaria.

METHODS

In this article, a Bayesian geostatistical model was applied to six malaria parasitaemia surveys conducted during rainy and dry seasons between November 2010 and 2013 to characterize the micro-scale spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk in northern Ghana.

RESULTS

The geostatistical model showed substantial spatial heterogeneity, with malaria parasite prevalence varying between 19 and 90%, and revealing a northeast to southwest gradient of predicted risk. The spatial distribution of prevalence was heavily influenced by two modest urban centres, with a substantially lower prevalence in urban centres compared to rural areas. Although strong seasonal variations were observed, spatial malaria prevalence patterns did not change substantially from year to year. Furthermore, independent surveillance data suggested that the model had a relatively good predictive performance when extrapolated to a neighbouring district.

CONCLUSIONS

This high variability in malaria prevalence is striking, given that this small area (approximately 30 km × 40 km) was purportedly homogeneous based on country-level spatial analysis, suggesting that fine-scale parasitaemia data might be critical to guide district-level programmatic efforts to prevent and control malaria. Extrapolations results suggest that fine-scale parasitaemia data can be useful for spatial predictions in neighbouring unsampled districts and does not have to be collected every year to aid district-level operations, helping to alleviate concerns regarding the cost of fine-scale data collection.

Recent Adaptive Acquisition by African Rainforest Hunter-Gatherers of the Late Pleistocene Sickle-Cell Mutation Suggests Past Differences in Malaria Exposure

The hemoglobin β^S sickle mutation is a textbook case in which natural selection maintains a deleterious mutation at high frequency in the human population. Homozygous individuals for this mutation develop sickle-cell disease, whereas heterozygotes benefit from higher protection against severe malaria. Because the overdominant β^S allele should be purged almost immediately from the population in the absence of malaria, the study of the evolutionary history of this iconic mutation can provide important information about the history of human exposure to malaria. Here, we sought to increase our understanding of the origins and time depth of the β^S mutation in populations with different lifestyles and ecologies, and we analyzed the diversity of HBB in 479 individuals from 13 populations of African farmers and rainforest hunter-gatherers. Using an approximate Bayesian computation method, we estimated the age of the β^S allele while explicitly accounting for population subdivision, past demography, and balancing selection. When the effects of balancing selection are taken into account, our analyses indicate a single emergence of β^S in the ancestors of present-day agriculturalist populations ∼22,000 years ago. Furthermore, we show that rainforest hunter-gatherers have more recently acquired the β^S mutation from the ancestors of agriculturalists through adaptive gene flow during the last ∼6,000 years. Together, our results provide evidence for a more ancient exposure to malarial pressures among the ancestors of agriculturalists than previously appreciated, and they suggest that rainforest hunter-gatherers have been increasingly exposed to malaria during the last millennia.

Current Situation of Malaria in Africa

Malaria infection is one of the major causes of deaths in the African continent. The high burden of malaria in Africa is due to P. falciparum, which adapts and cospecializes with Anopheles gambiae, the most effective and widespread malaria vector. Since 2000, the incidence of malaria has been reduced by 17% and malaria mortality rates by 26%. However, the rate of decline has stalled and even reversed in some regions since 2014. In 2017 as described by the latest World malaria report, 219 million malaria cases were reported, up from 2017 million cases reported in 2016 in 91 countries, and the global tally of malaria deaths reached 435,000 deaths, compared with 451,000 estimated deaths in 2016. Despite these achievements, the African region continues to account for about 92% of malaria cases and deaths worldwide. Therefore, it is important to master the current situation of malaria in Africa to see how to better plan its elimination. In this chapter, we present the current situation and prospective means to improve it, including a salutogenesis approach.

Land-use patterns and their implication on malaria transmission in Kilosa District, Tanzania

Background

Understanding of the land use and malaria transmission among farming communities in Tanzania is of great significance. Water resource development projects, deforestation, wetland cultivation, and land use changes for agricultural purposes all expand habitats for malaria-carrying mosquitoes. The main objective of this study was to assess land use patterns and their implication on malaria transmission in two villages in Kilosa District, Tanzania.

Methods

Multiple research methods were used for data collection, including household interviews using a structured questionnaire; key informant interviews; transect walks and direct field observations. A larval search was conducted using the dipper standard method whereby mosquito larvae and pupae were identified to genus level. Data analysis was undertaken using the Stata software version 10 and descriptive statistics were used.

Results

A total of 211 diverse mosquito breeding habitats were surveyed during this study. The mosquito breeding sites ranged from small areas such as hoof prints and coconut shells to large ones such as swamps created through anthropogenic activities. The relationships between land use patterns and malaria transmission were statistically insignificant, indicating that malaria transmission in Kilosa could possibly be due to other human activities, including seasonal movement to distant farms during farming seasons. Communities were knowledgeable about malaria preventive measures such as the use of mosquito nets. While knowledge that links mosquitoes and malaria was relatively high among respondents, knowledge related to mosquito ecology and breeding sites was generally low.

Conclusion

Although analysis of land use patterns did not show statistical significance in the study area, agricultural activities, brick making and settlement seem to be highly linked to malaria transmission. The association of land use patterns and malaria transmission is well observed in habitats created that harbour mosquitoes, and evidenced by presence of immature Anopheles mosquito larvae. Lack of knowledge of the epidemiology of transmission by the inhabitants is a major issue. Although it might be difficult to change land use patterns, as they are driven by economic necessity, future reduction of spread, through better education, is something that could be modified. In addition, more detailed studies are recommended to further confirm the linkages between land use/cover changes and malaria transmission in the study area.

Total systemic failure?

While the world argues about whether climate change is real, what if all systems are failing? This paper seeks to ignite further discussion concerning human impact on all aspects of our environment as we move further into the Anthropocene, not only in terms of the pressure we produce, but also how our activity changes the nature of the relationships between Earth's systems. The paper suggests that we currently lack the tools and analytical capacity to understand the significance of these changes and therefore we cannot answer the question, "are all systems failing?". We discuss how complexity theory, complex networks, and Artificial Intelligence, could contribute part of a solution.

Exposure and infection to Plasmodium knowlesi in case study communities in Northern Sabah, Malaysia and Palawan, The Philippines

BACKGROUND

Primarily impacting poor, rural populations, the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi is now the main cause of human malaria within Malaysian Borneo. While data is increasingly available on symptomatic cases, little is known about community-level patterns of exposure and infection. Understanding the true burden of disease and associated risk factors within endemic communities is critical for informing evidence-based control measures.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted comprehensive surveys in three areas where P. knowlesi transmission is reported: Limbuak, Pulau Banggi and Matunggung, Kudat, Sabah, Malaysia and Bacungan, Palawan, the Philippines. Infection prevalence was low with parasites detected by PCR in only 0.2% (4/2503) of the population. P. knowlesi PkSERA3 ag1 antibody responses were detected in 7.1% (95% CI: 6.2-8.2%) of the population, compared with 16.1% (14.6-17.7%) and 12.6% (11.2-14.1%) for P. falciparum and P. vivax. Sero-prevalence was low in individuals <10 years old for P. falciparum and P. vivax consistent with decreased transmission of non-zoonotic malaria species. Results indicated marked heterogeneity in transmission intensity between sites and P. knowlesi exposure was associated with agricultural work (OR 1.63; 95% CI 1.07-2.48) and higher levels of forest cover (OR 2.40; 95% CI 1.29-4.46) and clearing (OR 2.14; 95% CI 1.35-3.40) around houses. Spatial patterns of P. knowlesi exposure differed from exposure to non-zoonotic malaria and P. knowlesi exposed individuals were younger on average than individuals exposed to non-zoonotic malaria.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first study to describe serological exposure to P. knowlesi and associated risk factors within endemic communities. Results indicate community-level patterns of infection and exposure differ markedly from demographics of reported cases, with higher levels of exposure among women and children. Further work is needed to understand these variations in risk across a wider population and spatial scale.

Does deforestation promote or inhibit malaria transmission in the Amazon? A systematic literature review and critical appraisal of current evidence

Considerable interest in the relationship between biodiversity and disease has recently captured the attention of the research community, with important public policy implications. In particular, malaria in the Amazon region is often cited as an example of how forest conservation can improve public health outcomes. However, despite a growing body of literature and an increased understanding of the relationship between malaria and land use / land cover change (LULC) in Amazonia, contradictions have emerged. While some studies report that deforestation increases malaria risk, others claim the opposite. Assessing malaria risk requires examination of dynamic processes among three main components: (i) the environment (i.e. LULC and landscape transformations), (ii) vector biology (e.g. mosquito species distributions, vector activity and life cycle, plasmodium infection rates), and (iii) human populations (e.g. forest-related activity, host susceptibility, movement patterns). In this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review on malaria risk and deforestation in the Amazon focusing on these three components. We explore key features that are likely to generate these contrasting results using the reviewed articles and our own data from Brazil and Peru, and conclude with suggestions for productive avenues in future research.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.