Is dengue a disease of poverty? A systematic review

The macroeconomic impact of a dengue outbreak: Case studies from Thailand and Brazil

BACKGROUND

Dengue is spreading in (sub)tropical areas, and half of the global population is at risk. The macroeconomic impact of dengue extends beyond healthcare costs. This study evaluated the impact of dengue on gross domestic product (GDP) based on approaches tailored to two dengue-endemic countries, Thailand and Brazil, from the tourism and workforce perspectives, respectively.

FINDINGS

Because the tourism industry is a critical economic sector for Thailand, lost tourism revenues were estimated to analyze the impact of a dengue outbreak. An input-output model estimated that the direct effects (on international tourism) and indirect effects (on suppliers) of dengue on tourism reduced overall GDP by 1.43 billion US dollars (USD) (0.26%) in the outbreak year 2019. The induced effect (reduced employee income/spending) reduced Thailand's GDP by 375 million USD (0.07%). Overall, lost tourism revenues reduced Thailand's GDP by an estimated 1.81 billion USD (0.33%) in 2019 (3% of annual tourism revenue). An inoperability input-output model was used to analyze the effect of workforce absenteeism on GDP due to a dengue outbreak in Brazil. This model calculates the number of lost workdays associated with ambulatory and hospitalized dengue. Input was collected from state-level epidemiological and economic data for 2019. An estimated 22.4 million workdays were lost in the employed population; 39% associated with the informal sector. Lost workdays due to dengue reduced Brazil's GDP by 876 million USD (0.05%).

CONCLUSIONS

The economic costs of dengue outbreaks far surpass the direct medical costs. Dengue reduces overall GDP and inflicts national economic losses. With a high proportion of the population lacking formal employment in both countries and low income being a barrier to seeking care, dengue also poses an equity challenge. A combination of public health measures, like vector control and vaccination, against dengue is recommended to mitigate the broader economic impact of dengue.

Spatial analysis of Dengue through the reproduction numbers relating to socioeconomic features: Case studies on two Brazilian urban centers

The study of the propagation of infectious diseases in urban centers finds a close connection with their population's social characteristics and behavior. This work performs a spatial analysis of dengue cases in urban centers based on the basic reproduction numbers, R0, and incidence by planning areas (PAs), as well as their correlations with the Human Development Index (HDI) and the number of trips. We analyzed dengue epidemics in 2002 at two Brazilian urban centers, Belo Horizonte (BH) and Rio de Janeiro (RJ), using PAs as spatial units. Our results reveal heterogeneous spatial scenarios for both cities, with very weak correlations between R0 and both the number of trips and the HDI; in BH, the values of R0 show a less spatial heterogeneous pattern than in RJ. For BH, there are moderate correlations between incidence and both the number of trips and the HDI; meanwhile, they weakly correlate for RJ. Finally, the absence of strong correlations between the considered measures indicates that the transmission process should be treated considering the city as a whole.

Migration in French Guiana: Implications in health and infectious diseases

In French Guiana, more than a third of the population, and nearly half of the adults, are of foreign origin. This immigration is explained by the French standard of living, which is attractive to nationals of surrounding countries. Infectious diseases remain in the top 10 causes of premature death, often in the most precarious populations. In this context we aimed to synthesize the state of the knowledge regarding immigration and infectious diseases in French Guiana and the general implications that follow this diagnosis. For HIV, although the majority of patients are of foreign origin, estimates of the presumed date of infection based on CD4 erosion modelling and from molecular analyses suggest that the majority of transmissions in foreign-born individuals occur in French Guiana and that the Guiana shield has been a crossroad between Latin America and the Caribbean. Among key populations bridging these regions illegal gold miners are very mobile and have the greatest proportion B Caribbean HIV viruses. Gold miners have been a key vulnerable population for falciparum malaria and other tropical diseases such as leishmaniasis, leprosy, or leptospirosis. The complex history of migrations in French Guiana and on the Guiana Shield is also reflected in the fingerprinting of mycobacterium tuberculosis and the high incidence of tuberculosis in French Guiana, notably in immigrants, reflects the incidences in the countries of origin of patients. The high burden of infectious diseases in immigrants in French Guiana is first and foremost a reflection of the precarious living conditions within French Guiana and suggests that community-based proactive interventions are crucial to reduce transmission, morbidity, and mortality from infectious diseases.

Facing the escalating burden of dengue: Challenges and perspectives

Dengue is the most rapidly emerging mosquito-borne infection and, due to climate change and unplanned urbanization, it is predicted that the global burden of dengue will rise further as the infection spreads to new geographical locations. Dengue-endemic countries are often unable to cope with such increases, with health care facilities becoming overwhelmed during each dengue season. Furthermore, although dengue has been predominantly a childhood illness in the past, it currently mostly affects adults in many countries, with higher incidence of severe disease and mortality rates in pregnant women and in those with comorbidities. As there is currently no specific treatment for dengue and no early biomarker to identify those who will progress to develop vascular leakage, all individuals with dengue are closely monitored in case they need fluid management. Furthermore, diagnosing patients with acute dengue is challenging due to the similarity of clinical symptoms during early illness and poor sensitivity and specificity of point-of-care diagnostic tests. Novel vector control methods, such as the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, have shown promising results by reducing vector density and dengue incidence in clinical trial settings. A new dengue vaccine, TAK-003, had an efficacy of 61.2% against virologically confirmed dengue, 84.1% efficacy against hospitalizations and a 70% efficacy against development of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) at 54 months. While vaccines and mosquito control methods are welcome, they alone are unlikely to fully reduce the burden of dengue, and a treatment for dengue is therefore essential. Several novel antiviral drugs are currently being evaluated along with drugs that inhibit host mediators, such as mast cell products. Although viral proteins such as NS1 contribute to the vascular leak observed in severe dengue, the host immune response to the viral infection also plays a significant role in progression to severe disease. There is an urgent need to discover safe and effective treatments for dengue to prevent disease progression.

Socio-economic factors and its influence on the association between temperature and dengue incidence in 61 Provinces of the Philippines, 2010-2019

BACKGROUND

Temperature has a significant impact on dengue incidence, however, changes on the temperature-dengue relationship across axes of socio-economic vulnerability is not well described. This study sought to determine the association between dengue and temperature in multiple locations in the Philippines and explore the effect modification by socio-economic factors.

METHOD

Nationwide dengue cases per province from 2010 to 2019 and data on temperature were obtained from the Philippines' Department of Health-Epidemiological Bureau and ERA5-land, respectively. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) with a distributed lag non-linear model was utilized to examine the association between temperature and dengue incidence. We further implemented an interaction analysis in determining how socio-economic factors modify the association. All analyses were implemented using R programming.

RESULTS

Nationwide temperature-dengue risk function was noted to depict an inverted U-shaped pattern. Dengue risk increased linearly alongside increasing mean temperature from 15.8 degrees Celsius and peaking at 27.5 degrees Celsius before declining. However, province-specific analyses revealed significant heterogeneity. Socio-economic factors had varying impact on the temperature-dengue association. Provinces with high population density, less people in urban areas with larger household size, high poverty incidence, higher health spending per capita, and in lower latitudes were noted to exhibit statistically higher dengue risk compared to their counterparts at the upper temperature range.

CONCLUSIONS

This observational study found that temperature was associated with dengue incidence, and that this association is more apparent in locations with high population density, less people in urban areas with larger household size, high poverty incidence, higher health spending per capita, and in lower latitudes. Differences with socio-economic conditions is linked with dengue risk. This highlights the need to develop interventions tailor-fit to local conditions.

Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia

The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.

Previous Dengue Infection among Children in Puerto Rico and Implications for Dengue Vaccine Implementation

Limited dengue virus (DENV) seroprevalence estimates are available for Puerto Rico, which are needed to inform the potential use and cost-effectiveness of DENV vaccines. The Communities Organized to Prevent Arboviruses (COPA) is a cohort study initiated in 2018 in Ponce, Puerto Rico, to assess arboviral disease risk and provide a platform to evaluate interventions. We recruited participants from households in 38 study clusters, who were interviewed and provided a serum specimen. Specimens from 713 children aged 1 to 16 years during the first year of COPA were tested for the four DENV serotypes and ZIKV using a focus reduction neutralization assay. We assessed the seroprevalence of DENV and ZIKV by age and developed a catalytic model from seroprevalence and dengue surveillance data to estimate the force of infection for DENV during 2003-2018. Overall, 37% (n = 267) were seropositive for DENV; seroprevalence was 9% (11/128) among children aged 1 to 8 years and 44% (256/585) among children aged 9 to 16 years, exceeding the threshold over which DENV vaccination is deemed cost-effective. A total of 33% were seropositive for ZIKV, including 15% among children aged 0 to 8 years and 37% among children aged 9 to 16 years. The highest force of infection occurred in 2007, 2010, and 2012-2013, with low levels of transmission from 2016 to 2018. A higher proportion of children had evidence of multitypic DENV infection than expected, suggesting high heterogeneity in DENV risk in this setting.

A spatial analysis of co-circulating dengue and chikungunya virus infections during an epidemic in a region of Northeastern Brazil

The aim of this study was to describe, through spatial analysis, the cases of arboviruses (dengue and chikungunya), including deaths, during the first epidemic after the circulation of the chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the state of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil. This was an ecological study in both Pernambuco and the state capital, Recife, from 2015 to 2018. The odds ratios (OR) were estimated, and the statistical significance was considered p≤0.05. For the spatial analysis, Kulldorff's space-time scan statistics method was adopted to identify spatial clusters and to provide the relative risk (RR). In order to assess the significance at a level of p < 0.01 of the model, the number of Monte Carlo replications was 999 times. To perform the scan statistics we used the Poisson probability model, with a circular scanning window; annual temporal precision and retrospective analysis. A total of 227 deaths and 158,728 survivors from arboviruses was reported during the study period, with 100 deaths from dengue and 127 from CHIKV. The proportion of deaths from dengue was 0.08% and from chikungunya was 0.35%. The proportion of all those infected (deaths plus survivors) with dengue was 77.42% and with chikungunya was 22.58%. Children aged 0 to 9 years were around 3 times more likely to die than the reference group (OR 2.84; CI95% 1.16-5.00). From the age of 40, the chances of death increased significantly: 40-49 (OR 2.52; CI95% 1.19-5.29), 50-59 (OR 5.55; CI95% 2.76-11.17) and 60 or more (OR 14.90; CI95% 7.79-28.49). Males were approximately twice as likely to die as females (OR 1.77; CI95% 1.36-2.30). White-skinned people were less likely to die compared to non-white (OR 0.60; CI95% 0.41-0.87). The space-time analysis of prevalence in the state of Pernambuco revealed the presence of four clusters in the years 2015 and 2016, highlighting the Metropolitan Macro-region with a relative risk=4 and the Agreste and Hinterland macro-regions with a relative risk=3.3. The spatial distribution of the death rate in the municipality of Recife smoothed by the local empirical Bayesian estimator enabled a special pattern to be identified in the southwest and northeast of the municipality. The spatiotemporal analysis of the death rate revealed the presence of two clusters in the year 2015. In the primary cluster, it may be noted that the aforementioned aggregate presented a RR=7.2, and the secondary cluster presented a RR=6.0. The spatiotemporal analysis with Kulldorff's space-time scan statistics method, proved viable in identifying the risk areas for the occurrence of arboviruses, and could be included in surveillance routines so as to optimize prevention strategies during future epidemics.

Dengue and COVID-19 Co-Circulation in the Peruvian Amazon: A Population-Based Study

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the main Amazon cities dramatically, with Iquitos City reporting the highest seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during the first COVID-19 wave worldwide. This phenomenon raised many questions about the possibility of a co-circulation of dengue and COVID-19 and its consequences. We carried out a population-based cohort study in Iquitos, Peru. We obtained a venous blood sample from a subset of 326 adults from the Iquitos COVID-19 cohort (August 13-18, 2020) to estimate the seroprevalence of anti-dengue virus (DENV) and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We tested each serum sample for anti-DENV IgG (serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4) and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies anti-spike IgG and IgM by ELISA. We estimated an anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence of 78.0% (95% CI, 73.0-82.0) and an anti-DENV seroprevalence of 88.0% (95% CI, 84.0-91.6), signifying a high seroprevalence of both diseases during the first wave of COVID-19 transmission in the city. The San Juan District had a lower anti-DENV antibody seroprevalence than the Belen District (prevalence ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98). However, we did not observe these differences in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence. Iquitos City presented one of the highest seroprevalence rates of anti-DENV and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies worldwide, but with no correlation between their antibody levels.

The mismatch of narratives and local ecologies in the everyday governance of water access and mosquito control in an urbanizing community

Mosquito-borne disease presents a significant threat to urban populations, but risk can be uneven across a city due to underlying environmental patterns. Urban residents rely on social and economic processes to control the environment and mediate disease risk, a phenomenon known as everyday governance. We studied how households employed everyday governance of urban infrastructure relevant to mosquito-borne disease in Bengaluru, India to examine if and how inequalities in everyday governance manifest in differences in mosquito control. We found that governance mechanisms differed for water access and mosquitoes. Economic and social capital served different roles for each, influenced by global narratives of water and vector control.

COVID-19 may lower quality of life when infections and deaths increase: A longitudinal study in the Peruvian jungle

Background

Quality of life (QoL) is a multifactorial concept on the perception of the individual's wellbeing underpinned by environmental, psychological, and physical factors. Several studies have shown changes in QoL in the COVID-19 pandemic and may be due to increases in mortality rates, however, no study has investigated this among Peruvian jungle dwellers. Here, we have sought to estimate the QoL of individuals before and after the increase in cases and deaths from COVID-19.

Methods

A questionnaire-based longitudinal study was conducted in 102 inhabitants (mean 40.75 ± 7.49 years). The Spanish version of the WHOQOL-BREF was used in two stages: April and June. The first stage was accomplished before the first confirmed case of COVID-19, and the second stage was when the daily mortality rate was 3.5% with an incidence of 87%.

Results

Sixty (54.8%) participants were women, 67 (61.9%) were >31 years, and 38 (34.5%) and 32 (29.1%) participants had primary and secondary education, respectively. In the first and second stage we obtained an overall mean QoL of 46.65 ± 23.2 and 35 ± 27.7 points, respectively. Individuals had significantly lower QoL in the face of increased deaths in physical (p = 0.001), mental (p = 0.028) and environmental (p = 0.001) health domains, with the latter having the greatest impact (51.84 ± 5.81 vs. 16.66 ± 5.55 points).

Conclusion

Quality of life of Peruvian jungle dwellers is reduced during periods of increased mortality and incidence by COVID-19. Preventive strategies aimed at reducing the impact of COVID-19 on the mental health and global wellbeing of individuals living in the Amazon are recommended to Peruvian authorities.

The Serological Confirmation and Outcome of the Pediatric Dengue Patients Presenting to Emergency Department: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

In the emergency department, it is very uncommon perform a differential diagnosis to serologically differentiate between dengue, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and dengue shock syndrome. Prompt differential diagnosis and treatment is essential with the presentation of dengue. This study aims to determine the serological confirmation and outcome of the dengue epidemic in the pediatric population presenting to the ED in a tertiary care hospital.

Methods

A single-center cross-sectional study was conducted. All pediatric patients aged less than 18 years presented to ED with clinical features suggestive of DF, DFF, and DSS while also doing the serological confirmation for the dengue were enrolled in the study. Data was collected on demographics, clinical characteristics, diagnosis, and outcomes of 324 pediatric patients. Multivariable binary logistic regression was applied for the analysis.

Results

Out of 324 patients, 191 (59.13%) underwent NS1 testing and 132 (40.87%) did the IgM test. Most participants were in the age range of 13 to 18 years in both groups. Fever was the most common complaint in both groups 191 (100%) and 132 (100%). In each group, around one-third of the participants complained about body aches 69 (36.13%) and 44 (33.33%). The patient having a history of traveling within the past 14 days created a 1.51 (95% CI: 1.27-2.25) times higher odds of contracting dengue fever as compared to no history of travel.

Conclusion

The serologic confirmation of dengue in the ED helps in both the adequate and timely treatment as well as patient disposition and ultimately saves lives.

Spatial, Sociodemographic, and Weather Analysis of the Zika Virus Outbreak: U.S. Virgin Islands, January 2016-January 2018

Background: The first Zika virus outbreak in U.S. Virgin Islands identified 1031 confirmed noncongenital Zika disease (n = 967) and infection (n = 64) cases during January 2016-January 2018; most cases (89%) occurred during July-December 2016. Methods and Results: The epidemic followed a continued point-source outbreak pattern. Evaluation of sociodemographic risk factors revealed that estates with higher unemployment, more houses connected to the public water system, and more newly built houses were significantly less likely to have Zika virus disease and infection cases. Increased temperature was associated with higher case counts, which suggests a seasonal association of this outbreak. Conclusion: Vector surveillance and control measures are needed to prevent future outbreaks.

Real world data study of prevalence and direct costs related to dengue management in Brazil's private healthcare from 2015 to 2020

BACKGROUND

The burden of dengue in Brazil is poorly documented and is based on data from the public health care setting. This study estimated the prevalence and costs of dengue management in the private health care system in Brazil from 2015 to 2020 using a large claims database from Orizon.

METHODS

We selected claims with dengue ICD codes (ICD-10 A90 or A91) from January 2015 to December 2020. Prevalence was estimated based on the population enrolled in health insurance plans in the given year. Costs were adjusted for the inflation up to December 2021 and evaluated by measures of central tendency and dispersion.

RESULTS

A total of 63,882 unique beneficiaries were included, with a total of 64,186 dengue cases. The year with the highest prevalence was 2015 (1.6% of patients who used health plans), and there was also an increase in cases in 2016 and 2019. The median cost per hospitalization in 2015 was US$486.17, and in 2020, it reached US$696.72. The median cost of a case seen at an emergency room ranged from US$ 97.78 in 2015 to US$ 118.16 in 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated prevalence of dengue in this population of private health-insured patients followed the epidemiological trends of the general population in Brazil, with the highest rates in 2015, 2016, and 2019. The cost of dengue management has increased in the private health care setting over the years.

Potential role of transthoracic echocardiography for screening LV systolic dysfunction in patients with a history of dengue infection. A cross-sectional and cohort study and review of the literature

Background

Dengue virus can affect the cardiovascular system and men may be at higher risk of severe complications than women. We hypothesized that clinical dengue virus (DENV) infection could induce myocardial alterations of the left ventricle (LV) and that these changes could be detected by transthoracic echocardiography.

Methodology/Principal findings

We examined individuals from Acre in the Amazon Basin of Brazil in 2020 as part of the Malaria Heart Study. By questionnaires we collected information on self-reported prior dengue infection. All individuals underwent transthoracic echocardiography, analysis of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and global longitudinal strain (GLS). We included 521 persons (mean age 40±15 years, 39% men, 50% urban areas) of which 253 (49%) had a history of dengue infection. In multivariable models adjusted for clinical and sociodemographic data, a history of self-reported dengue was significantly associated with lower LVEF (β = -2.37, P < 0.01) and lower GLS (β = 1.08, P < 0.01) in men, whereas no significant associations were found in women (P > 0.05). In line with these findings, men with a history of dengue had higher rates of LV systolic dysfunction (LVEF < 50% = 20%; GLS < 16% = 17%) than those without a history of dengue (LVEF < 50% = 7%; GLS < 16% = 8%; P < 0.01 and 0.06, respectively).

Conclusions/Significance

The findings of this study suggest that a clinical infection by dengue virus could induce myocardial alterations, mainly in men and in the LV, which could be detected by conventional transthoracic echocardiography. Hence, these results highlight a potential role of echocardiography for screening LV dysfunction in participants with a history of dengue infection. Further larger studies are warranted to validate the findings of this study.

Spatio-temporal clusters and patterns of spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia

Background

Colombia has one of the highest burdens of arboviruses in South America. The country was in a state of hyperendemicity between 2014 and 2016, with co-circulation of several Aedes-borne viruses, including a syndemic of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in 2015.

Methodology/Principal findings

We analyzed the cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika notified in Colombia from January 2014 to December 2018 by municipality and week. The trajectory and velocity of spread was studied using trend surface analysis, and spatio-temporal high-risk clusters for each disease in separate and for the three diseases simultaneously (multivariate) were identified using Kulldorff’s scan statistics. During the study period, there were 366,628, 77,345 and 74,793 cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, respectively, in Colombia. The spread patterns for chikungunya and Zika were similar, although Zika’s spread was accelerated. Both chikungunya and Zika mainly spread from the regions on the Atlantic coast and the south-west to the rest of the country. We identified 21, 16, and 13 spatio-temporal clusters of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, respectively, and, from the multivariate analysis, 20 spatio-temporal clusters, among which 7 were simultaneous for the three diseases. For all disease-specific analyses and the multivariate analysis, the most-likely cluster was identified in the south-western region of Colombia, including the Valle del Cauca department.

Conclusions/Significance

The results further our understanding of emerging Aedes-borne diseases in Colombia by providing useful evidence on their potential site of entry and spread trajectory within the country, and identifying spatio-temporal disease-specific and multivariate high-risk clusters of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, information that can be used to target interventions.

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are diseases transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. Between 2014 and 2016 chikungunya and Zika viruses started causing outbreaks in Colombia, one of the countries historically most affected by dengue. We used case counts of the diseases by municipality and week to study the spread trajectory of chikungunya and Zika within Colombia’s territory, and to identify space-time high-risk clusters, i.e., the areas and time periods that dengue, chikungunya, and Zika were more present. Chikungunya and Zika spread similarly in Colombia, but Zika spread faster. The Atlantic coast, a famous touristic destination in the country, was likely the place of entry of chikungunya and Zika in Colombia. The south-western region was identified as a high-risk cluster for all three diseases in separate and simultaneously. This region has a favorable climate for the Aedes mosquitoes and other characteristics that facilitate the diseases’ transmission, such as social deprivation and high population mobility. Our results provide useful information on the locations that should be prioritized for interventions to prevent the entry of new diseases transmitted by Aedes and to reduce the burden of dengue, chikungunya and Zika where they are established.

Importance of Public Transport Networks for Reconciling the Spatial Distribution of Dengue and the Association of Socio-Economic Factors with Dengue Risk in Bangkok, Thailand

Dengue is the most widespread mosquito-borne viral disease of man and spreading at an alarming rate. Socio-economic inequality has long been thought to contribute to providing an environment for viral propagation. However, identifying socio-economic (SE) risk factors is confounded by intra-urban daily human mobility, with virus being ferried across cities. This study aimed to identify SE variables associated with dengue at a subdistrict level in Bangkok, analyse how they explain observed dengue hotspots and assess the impact of mobility networks on such associations. Using meteorological, dengue case, national statistics, and transport databases from the Bangkok authorities, we applied statistical association and spatial analyses to identify SE variables associated with dengue and spatial hotspots and the extent to which incorporating transport data impacts the observed associations. We identified three SE risk factors at the subdistrict level: lack of education, % of houses being cement/brick, and number of houses as being associated with increased risk of dengue. Spatial hotspots of dengue were found to occur consistently in the centre of the city, but which did not entirely have the socio-economic risk factor characteristics. Incorporation of the intra-urban transport network, however, much improved the overall statistical association of the socio-economic variables with dengue incidence and reconciled the incongruous difference between the spatial hotspots and the SE risk factors. Our study suggests that incorporating transport networks enables a more real-world analysis within urban areas and should enable improvements in the identification of risk factors.

Congenital Zika syndrome and living conditions in the largest city of northeastern Brazil

Background

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic hit Brazil in 2015 and resulted in a generation of children at risk of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). The social vulnerability of certain segments of the population contributed to the disproportional occurrence of CZS in the Brazilian Northeast, the poorest region in the country. Living conditions are essential factors in understanding the social determination of CZS, which is embedded in a complex interaction between biological, environmental, and social factors. Salvador, the biggest city in the region, played a central role in the context of the epidemic and was a pioneer in reporting the ZIKV infection and registering a high number of cases of CZS. The aim of the study was identifying the incidence and spatial distribution pattern of children with CZS in the municipality of Salvador, according to living conditions.

Methods

This is an ecological study that uses the reported cases of ZIKV and CZS registered in the epidemiological surveillance database of the Municipal Secretariat of Health of the city of Salvador between August of 2015 and July of 2016. The neighborhoods formed the analysis units and the thematic maps were built based on the reported cases. Associations between CZS and living conditions were assessed using the Kernel ratio and a spatial autoregressive linear regression model.

Results

Seven hundred twenty-six live births were reported, of which 236 (32.5%) were confirmed for CZS. Despite the reports of ZIKV infection being widely distributed, the cases of CZS were concentrated in poor areas of the city. A positive spatial association was observed between living in places with poorer living conditions and births of children with CZS.

Conclusions

This study shows the role of living conditions in the occurrence of births of children with CZS and indicates the need for approaches that recognize the part played by social inequalities in determining CZS and in caring for the children affected.

Risk factors for infection with chikungunya and Zika viruses in southern Puerto Rico: A community-based cross-sectional seroprevalence survey

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused a large outbreak in Puerto Rico in 2014, followed by a Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in 2016. Communities Organized for the Prevention of Arboviruses (COPA) is a cohort study in southern Puerto Rico, initiated in 2018 to measure arboviral disease risk and provide a platform to evaluate interventions. To identify risk factors for infection, we assessed prevalence of previous CHIKV infection and recent ZIKV and DENV infection in a cross-sectional study among COPA participants. Participants aged 1-50 years (y) were recruited from randomly selected households in study clusters. Each participant completed an interview and provided a blood specimen, which was tested by anti-CHIKV IgG ELISA assay and anti-ZIKV and anti-DENV IgM MAC-ELISA assays. We assessed individual, household, and community factors associated with a positive result for CHIKV or ZIKV after adjusting for confounders. During 2018-2019, 4,090 participants were enrolled; 61% were female and median age was 28y (interquartile range [IQR]: 16-41). Among 4,035 participants tested for CHIKV, 1,268 (31.4%) had evidence of previous infection. CHIKV infection prevalence was lower among children 1-10 years old compared to people 11 and older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.30; 95% CI 1.71-3.08). Lower CHIKV infection prevalence was associated with home screens (aOR 0.51; 95% CI 0.42-0.61) and air conditioning (aOR 0.64; 95% CI 0.54-0.77). CHIKV infection prevalence also varied by study cluster of residence and insurance type. Few participants (16; 0.4%) had evidence of recent DENV infection by IgM. Among 4,035 participants tested for ZIKV, 651 (16%) had evidence of recent infection. Infection prevalence increased with older age, from 7% among 1-10y olds up to 19% among 41-50y olds (aOR 3.23; 95% CI 2.16-4.84). Males had an increased risk of Zika infection prevalence compared with females (aOR 1.31; 95% CI 1.09-1.57). ZIKV infection prevalence also decreased with the presence of home screens (aOR 0.66; 95% CI 0.54-0.82) and air conditioning (aOR 0.69; 95% CI 0.57-0.84). Similar infection patterns were observed for recent ZIKV infection prevalence and previous CHIKV infection prevalence by age, and the presence of screens and air conditioners in the home decreased infection risk from both viruses by as much as 50%.

Distance to public transit predicts spatial distribution of dengue virus incidence in Medellín, Colombia

Dengue is a growing global threat in some of the world’s most rapidly growing landscapes. Research shows that urbanization and human movement affect the spatial dynamics and magnitude of dengue outbreaks; however, precise effects of urban growth on dengue are not well understood because of a lack of sufficiently fine-scaled data. We analyzed nine years of address-level dengue case data in Medellin, Colombia during a period of public transit expansion. We correlate changes in the spread and magnitude of localized outbreaks to changes in accessibility and usage of public transit. Locations closer to and with a greater utilization of public transit had greater dengue incidence. This relationship was modulated by socioeconomic status; lower socioeconomic status locations experienced stronger effects of public transit accessibility and usage on dengue incidence. Public transit is a vital urban resource, particularly among low socioeconomic populations. These results highlight the importance of public health services concurrent with urban growth.

The Potential to Address Disease Vectors in Favelas in Brazil Using Sustainable Drainage Systems: Zika, Drainage and Greywater Management

Residents of informal settlements, the world over, suffer consequences due to the lack of drainage and greywater management, impacting human and environmental health. In Brazil, the presence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito in urban areas promotes infections of the Zika virus as well as companion viruses, such as dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever. By using observation and interviews with the community, this paper shows how a simple sustainable drainage system approach could prevent the accumulation of on-street standing water, and thus reduce opportunities for the mosquito to breed and reduce infection rates. During the interview phase, it became apparent that underlying misinformation and misunderstandings prevail related to existing environmental conditions in favelas and the role of the mosquito in infecting residents. This inhibits recommendations made by professionals to reduce breeding opportunities for the disease vector. Whilst unrest is an issue in favelas, it is not the only issue preventing the human right to reliable, safe sanitation, including drainage. In "pacified" favelas which may be considered safe(r), the infrastructure is still poor and is not connected to the city-wide sanitation/treatment networks.

The triple epidemics of arboviruses in Feira de Santana, Brazilian Northeast: Epidemiological characteristics and diffusion patterns

Arboviruses are diseases of worldwide importance in the field of communicable diseases. In Brazil, the reemergence of dengue and the emergence of chikungunya and Zika since 2014 have led to epidemic waves of great magnitude and rapid spread. However, their diffusion patterns vary and change over time. This study analyzes the spatial diffusion of the simultaneous circulation of three arboviruses transmitted by the same vector in a large urban space over two epidemic waves in consecutive years. An ecological study of spatial and temporal aggregates on the occurrence of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, from 2014 to 2019, in Feira de Santana, Bahia State, was carried out using data of cases reported to the national surveillance system. Four different methods were used to analyze the spatial diffusion: Kernel Estimation with sequential maps, cumulative nearest-neighbor ratios (NNI) over time, spatial correlograms and local autocorrelation changes (LISA) over time. From 2014-2019, there were 21,723 confirmed cases of arboviruses. The highest incidences were among women (496.9, 220.2, and 91.0 cases/100,000 women for dengue, chikungunya and Zika respectively). By age group, the highest incidences were from ages 10-19 years old (609.3 dengue cases/100,000), from 60 and more (306.7 chikungunya cases/100,000), and from 0-9 years old (124.1 Zika cases/100,000 inhabitants). The temporal distribution demonstrated two epidemic waves of simultaneous circulation in 2014 and 2015. Kernel maps indicate that arboviruses spread to neighboring areas near the first hotspots, suggesting an expansion diffusion pattern. The NNI, spatial correlograms and LISA changes results suggest expansion patterns for the three arboviruses in all periods. The spatial diffusion pattern of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya in the 2014-2015 epidemics in Feira de Santana was expansion. These findings are useful to guide prevention measures and reduce occurrence in other areas.

Uncovering the Burden of Dengue in Africa: Considerations on Magnitude, Misdiagnosis, and Ancestry

Dengue is a re-emerging neglected disease of major public health importance. This review highlights important considerations for dengue disease in Africa, including epidemiology and underestimation of disease burden in African countries, issues with malaria misdiagnosis and co-infections, and potential evidence of genetic protection from severe dengue disease in populations of African descent. The findings indicate that dengue virus prevalence in African countries and populations may be more widespread than reported data suggests, and that the Aedes mosquito vectors appear to be increasing in dissemination and number. Changes in climate, population, and plastic pollution are expected to worsen the dengue situation in Africa. Dengue misdiagnosis is also a problem in Africa, especially due to the typical non-specific clinical presentation of dengue leading to misdiagnosis as malaria. Finally, research suggests that a protective genetic component against severe dengue exists in African descent populations, but further studies should be conducted to strengthen this association in various populations, taking into consideration socioeconomic factors that may contribute to these findings. The main takeaway is that Africa should not be overlooked when it comes to dengue, and more attention and resources should be devoted to this disease in Africa.

Severe dengue in adults and children, Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), West Africa, October 2015–January 2017

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Severe dengue was common in this sudy.

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In contrast to multiple prior studies, the risk of severe dengue was greater for patients with primary dengue compared to those with secondary infection.

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Additional risk factors for severe dengue included age, male sex, haemoglobin S, diabetes, and hypertension.  Case mapping showed that dengue cases were more concentrated  in sectors located in the centre of the city and close to the health centres.

Introduction

Although dengue is the most common arbovirus infection worldwide, studies of severe dengue in Africa are lacking, and risk factors for severe dengue have been insufficiently described. This study was conducted in the context of the 2016 dengue epidemic in Burkina Faso to determine the prevalence of severe dengue, identify factors associated with severe dengue, and perform mapping of dengue cases in the country's capital, Ouagadougou.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted from November 2015 to January 2017. Data were collected in 15 public and private health centres, and included sociodemographic, clinical and patient outcome variables. Dengue was diagnosed using SD Bioline Dengue Duo rapid diagnostic tests. Data were analysed using Epi-Info Version 7. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of severe dengue. P<0.05 was considered significant. Dengue case mapping was performed using Geographic Information System software (ArcGIS).

Results

Of the 811 patients who tested positive for dengue, 609 (75%) had early dengue (AgNS1 positive) and 272 (33.5%) had severe dengue. Patient age ranged from 1 to 83 years (median 30.5 years) and 393 (48.3%) were female. Renal failure (13.1%) and severe bleeding (10.6%) were the most common signs of severe dengue. Risk factors for severe dengue included age, male sex, haemoglobin S, diabetes, hypertension, and primary dengue. Dengue cases were more concentrated  in sectors located in the centre of the city and close to the health centres.

Conclusion

Dengue is increasingly common in Africa and factors associated with severity should be sought systematically as soon as a patient tests positive. Additional studies are needed to determine if the factors found to be associated with severity can be used to identify patients at risk for dengue-related complications, and to provide early and specialized management to reduce morbidity and mortality related to dengue in Africa.

The role of urbanisation in the spread of Aedes mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit-A systematic review

Background

This systematic review aims to assess how different urbanisation patterns related to rapid urban growth, unplanned expansion, and human population density affect the establishment and distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and create favourable conditions for the spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses.

Methods and findings

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a systematic review was conducted using the PubMed, Virtual Health Library, Cochrane, WHO Library Database (WHOLIS), Google Scholar, and and the Institutional Repository for Information Sharing (IRIS) databases. From a total of 523 identified studies, 86 were selected for further analysis, and 29 were finally analysed after applying all inclusion and exclusion criteria. The main explanatory variables used to associate urbanisation with epidemiological/entomological outcomes were the following: human population density, urban growth, artificial geographical space, urban construction, and urban density. Associated with the lack of a global definition of urbanisation, several studies provided their own definitions, which represents one of the study’s limitations. Results were based on 8 ecological studies/models, 8 entomological surveillance studies, 7 epidemiological surveillance studies, and 6 studies consisting of spatial and predictive models. According to their focus, studies were categorised into 2 main subgroups, namely “Aedes ecology” and “transmission dynamics.” There was a consistent association between urbanisation and the distribution and density of Aedes mosquitoes in 14 of the studies and a strong relationship between vector abundance and disease transmission in 18 studies. Human population density of more than 1,000 inhabitants per square kilometer was associated with increased levels of arboviral diseases in 15 of the studies.

Conclusions

The use of different methods in the included studies highlights the interplay of multiple factors linking urbanisation with ecological, entomological, and epidemiological parameters and the need to consider a variety of these factors for designing effective public health approaches.

The expansion of urbanisation is often associated with the emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases by creating favourable conditions for the survival of Aedes species and the spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. This systematic review examined the relationship of urbanisation to the emergence and spread of Aedes mosquito–borne diseases and epidemics. From a total of 523 identified studies, 29 were included in the analysis. Studies were categorised into 2 main subgroups, namely “Aedes ecology” and “transmission dynamics” according to the main influence factors posed by urbanisation. Selected articles showed a clear relationship of urbanisation with distribution and density of Aedes mosquitoes and a robust association between vector production, human population density, and disease transmission. Differing definitions of ’urbanisation’ and the interplay of numerous factors linking urbanisation with ecological, entomological, and epidemiological parameters highlight the need for a multidimensional perspective when assessing the impacts of rapid and unplanned urban expansion and when designing effective control programmes.

Development and Comparison of Dengue Vulnerability Indices Using GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Lao PDR and Thailand

Dengue is a continuous health burden in Laos and Thailand. We assessed and mapped dengue vulnerability in selected provinces of Laos and Thailand using multi-criteria decision approaches. An ecohealth framework was used to develop dengue vulnerability indices (DVIs) that explain links between population, social and physical environments, and health to identify exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capacity indicators. Three DVIs were constructed using two objective approaches, Shannon's Entropy (SE) and the Water-Associated Disease Index (WADI), and one subjective approach, the Best-Worst Method (BWM). Each DVI was validated by correlating the index score with dengue incidence for each spatial unit (district and subdistrict) over time. A Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) larger than 0.5 and a p-value less than 0.05 implied a good spatial and temporal performance. Spatially, DVIWADI was significantly correlated on average in 19% (4-40%) of districts in Laos (mean r = 0.5) and 27% (15-53%) of subdistricts in Thailand (mean r = 0.85). The DVISE was validated in 22% (12-40%) of districts in Laos and in 13% (3-38%) of subdistricts in Thailand. The DVIBWM was only developed for Laos because of lack of data in Thailand and was significantly associated with dengue incidence on average in 14% (0-28%) of Lao districts. The DVIWADI indicated high vulnerability in urban centers and in areas with plantations and forests. In 2019, high DVIWADI values were observed in sparsely populated areas due to elevated exposure, possibly from changes in climate and land cover, including urbanization, plantations, and dam construction. Of the three indices, DVIWADI was the most suitable vulnerability index for the study area. The DVIWADI can also be applied to other water-associated diseases, such as Zika and chikungunya, to highlight priority areas for further investigation and as a tool for prevention and interventions.

Entomological characterization of Aedes mosquitoes and arbovirus detection in Ibagué, a Colombian city with co-circulation of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses

Background

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are arboviruses of significant public health importance that are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. In Colombia, where dengue is hyperendemic, and where chikungunya and Zika were introduced in the last decade, more than half of the population lives in areas at risk. The objective of this study was to characterize Aedes spp. vectors and study their natural infection with dengue, Zika and chikungunya in Ibagué, a Colombian city and capital of the department of Tolima, with case reports of simultaneous circulation of these three arboviruses.

Methods

Mosquito collections were carried out monthly between June 2018 and May 2019 in neighborhoods with different levels of socioeconomic status. We used the non-parametric Friedman, Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis tests to compare mosquito density distributions. We applied logistic regression analyses to identify associations between mosquito density and absence/presence of breeding sites, and the Spearman correlation coefficient to analyze the possible relationship between climatic variables and mosquito density.

Results

We collected Ae. aegypti in all sampled neighborhoods and found for the first time Ae. albopictus in the city of Ibagué. A greater abundance of mosquitoes was collected in neighborhoods displaying low compared to high socioeconomic status as well as in the intradomicile compared to the peridomestic space. Female mosquitoes predominated over males, and most of the test females had fed on human blood. In total, four Ae. aegypti pools (3%) were positive for dengue virus (serotype 1) and one pool for chikungunya virus (0.8%). Interestingly, infected females were only collected in neighborhoods of low socioeconomic status, and mostly in the intradomicile space.

Conclusions

We confirmed the co-circulation of dengue (serotype 1) and chikungunya viruses in the Ae. aegypti population in Ibagué. However, Zika virus was not detected in any mosquito sample, 3 years after its introduction into the country. The positivity for dengue and chikungunya viruses, predominance of mosquitoes in the intradomicile space and the high proportion of females fed on humans highlight the high risk for arbovirus transmission in Ibagué, but may also provide an opportunity for establishing effective control strategies.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04908-x.

Seroepidemiological survey on chikungunya in endemic zones for arboviruses in Brazil, 2019

This study aimed to identify the seroprevalence of chikungunya and its associated factors in the city of Quixadá, Ceará, Brazil. We also aimed to identify the spatial distribution patterns of positive cases. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a questionnaire about clinical symptoms, socioeconomic and demographic factors, and a 10 ml blood sample was collected and analysed by ELISA. For the bivariate analysis, we use the chi-square test, a prevalence ratio and its 95% confidence interval. A robust Poisson hierarchical regression was used to adjust for confounders. The Kernel density was performed for the spatial analysis. A total of 409 samples were analysed; of them, 70.7% were seropositive for previous exposure to chikungunya virus (CHIKV). High seropositivity for CHIKV was higher in female participants (75.5%; PR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.06-1.43), those aged 31 years or more (74.3%; PR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.04-2.52), and those with elementary education level (75.0%; PR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.06-1.60). There were also high seroprevalence in those with less than a minimum wage per month (89.5%; PR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.11-2.30), housewives (87.5%; PR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.24-2.18) and unemployed (80.0%; PR = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.10-2.06). After adjusting for age, morning stiffness was the only chikungunya symptom that remained associated (PR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37; p < .001). There was an area of high density of cases in the downtown and two areas of medium density in nearby regions. Otherwise, the higher seroprevalence rates were in the peripherical neighbourhoods. There is a hyperendemicity of CHIKV in Quixadá, and most cases are spatially contiguous. The main associated clinical sign is morning stiffness, but other factors such as low income and spending a longer time at home were significantly associated with higher seroprevalence.

Spatial analysis of the incidence of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya and socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In 2015–2016, simultaneous circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) was reported. We conducted an ecological study to analyse the spatial distribution of dengue, Zika and chikungunya cases and to investigate socioeconomic factors associated with individual and combined disease incidence in 2015–2016. We then constructed thematic maps and analysed the bivariate global Moran indices. Classical and spatial models were used. A distinct spatial distribution pattern for dengue, Zika and chikungunya was identified in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. The bivariate global Moran indices (P < 0.05) revealed negative spatial correlations between rates of dengue, Zika, chikungunya and combined arboviruses incidence and social development index and mean income. The regression models (P < 0.05) identified a negative relationship between mean income and each of these rates and between sewage and Zika incidence rates, as well as a positive relationship between urban areas and chikungunya incidence rates. In our study, spatial analysis techniques helped to identify high-risk and social determinants at the local level for the three arboviruses. Our findings may aid in backing effective interventions for the prevention and control of epidemics of these diseases.

Arboviral diseases and poverty in Alabama, 2007-2017

Mosquito-borne viruses cause diseases of great public health concern. Arboviral disease case distributions have complex relationships with socioeconomic and environmental factors. We combined information about socio-economic (population, and poverty rate) and environmental (precipitation, and land use) characteristics with reported human cases of arboviral disease in the counties of Alabama, USA, from 2007–2017. We used county level data on West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Zika virus (ZIKV), California serogroup virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus, and Saint Louis encephalitis virus to provide a detailed description of their spatio-temporal pattern. We found a significant spatial convergence between incidence of WNV and poverty rate clustered in the southern part of Alabama. DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases showed a different spatial pattern, being mostly located in the northern part, in areas of high socioeconomic status. The results of our study establish that poverty-driven inequities in arboviral risk exist in the southern USA, and should be taken into account when planning prevention and intervention strategies.

Mosquito-borne arboviruses like West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Zika virus (ZIKV), California serogroup virus (CSV), Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEE), and Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLE) are on the rise globally. Socioeconomic and environmental conditions have played a role in directing in this expansion by creating conditions ideal for mosquito vectors and transmission. In this study, we used 10 years (2007–2017) of county level human arboviral case data from the US state of Alabama to better understand the roles socioeconomics (poverty rate) and environmental (land use, precipitation, land cover) conditions may play in driving patterns of arboviral disease in the southern US. We found a significant association between poverty rate and incidence of WNV, an arbovirus primarily transmitted by Culex spp. mosquitoes, which are known for thriving in contaminated water sources and sewage overflow. Conversely, cases of DENV, CHIKV, and ZIKV, arboviruses primarily transmitted by Aedes spp. mosquitoes, were reported in areas of high socioeconomic status. These findings suggest differential distribution of arboviruses relevant to human health in Alabama, and that poverty in the southern US is a significant factor that should be considered when planning WNV prevention and intervention strategies.

Dengue, Severity Paradox, and Socioeconomic Distribution Among Afro-Colombians

BACKGROUND

The clinical presentation of dengue ranges from self-limited mild illness to severe forms, including death. African ancestry is often described as protective against dengue severity. However, in the Latin American context, African ancestry has been associated with increased mortality. This "severity paradox" has been hypothesized as resulting from confounding or heterogeneity by socioeconomic status (SES). However, few systematic analyses have been conducted to investigate the presence and nature of the disparity paradox.

METHODS

We fit Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal models using individual-level surveillance data from Cali, Colombia (2012-2017), to assess the overall morbidity and severity burden of notified dengue. We fitted overall and ethnic-specific models to assess the presence of heterogeneity by SES across and within ethnic groups (Afro-Colombian vs. non-Afro-Colombians), conducting sensitivity analyses to account for potential underreporting.

RESULTS

Our study included 65,402 dengue cases and 13,732 (21%) hospitalizations. Overall notified dengue incidence rates did not vary across ethnic groups. Severity risk was higher among Afro-Colombians (risk ratio [RR] = 1.16; 95% Credible Interval [95% CrI] = 1.08, 1.24) but after accounting for underreporting by ethnicity this association was nearly null (RR = 1.02; 95% CrI = 0.97, 1.07). Subsidized health insurance and low-SES were associated with increased overall dengue rates and severity.

CONCLUSION

The paradoxically increased severity among Afro-Colombians can be attributed to differential health-seeking behaviors and reporting among Afro-Colombians. Such differential reporting can be understood as a type of intersectionality between SES, insurance scheme, and ethnicity that requires a quantitative assessment in future studies.

Demographic and climatic factors associated with dengue prevalence in a hyperendemic zone in Mexico: an empirical approach

BACKGROUND

Many models for predicting dengue epidemics use incidence and short-term changes in climate variables, however, studies in real-life scenarios for correlations of seroprevalence (SP) with long-term climate variables and with integration of socio-economic factors are scarce. Our objective was to analyse the combined correlation between socio-economic and climate variables with the SP of dengue in Mexico.

METHODS

We performed a seroepidemiological ecological study on the Mexican Pacific coast. Dengue SP was estimated by the presence of immunoglobulin G antibodies in 1278 inhabitants. We implemented multiple correlations with socio-economic, climatic and topographic characteristics using logistic regression, generalized linear models and non-linear regressions.

RESULTS

Dengue SP was 58%. The age-adjusted correlation was positive with the male sex, while a negative correlation was seen with socio-economic status (SES) and scholl level (SL). The annual temperature showed a positive correlation, while the altitude was negative. It should be noted that these correlations showed a marked 'S' shape in the non-linear model, suggesting three clearly defined scenarios for dengue risk.

CONCLUSION

Low SES and SL showed an unexpected paradoxical protective effect. Altitude above sea level and annual temperature are the main determinants for dengue in the long term. The identification of three clearly delineated scenarios for transmission could improve the accuracy of predictive models.

Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis

Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.

Dengue fever is mainly transmitted by a mosquito species that is highly urbanized, and lays eggs and develops mostly in artificial water containers. Dengue transmission is sustained year-round in most tropical regions of the world, but in many subtropical/temperate regions it occurs only in the warmest months. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these regions, we analyzed one of the largest outbreaks in Buenos Aires city, a subtropical metropolis. Based on information on 5,104 georeferenced cases during summer-autumn 2016, we found that most transmission occurred in or near home, that slums had the highest risk of transmission, and that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. We showed that the cumulative effects of temperature over the previous few weeks set the temporal limits for transmission to occur, and that the outbreak was sparked by infected people arriving from regions with ongoing outbreaks. Additionally, we implemented a statistical method to identify transmission foci in real-time that improves targeting control interventions. Our results deepen the understanding of dengue transmission as a result of social, physical, and biological processes, and pose multiple opportunities for improving control of dengue and other mosquito-borne viruses such as Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever.

Twenty-Two years of dengue fever (1996-2017): an epidemiological study in a Brazilian city

This ecological study analyzed the temporal pattern of clinically diagnosed and laboratory confirmed dengue cases in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil from 1996 to 2017. The study was divided into two analytical parts, the first of which evaluated the association between dengue incidence and host and climatic factors. The second part encompassed data from 2002 to 2017 and examined dengue incidence in relation to virus serotype and an intra-urban socioeconomic index. Over 22 years there were 469,171 cases and four epidemic peaks. There was an increase in the number, severity, and lethality of cases over the last 10 years of the study period. Biological and environmental factors appear to modulate the behavior of dengue in a large urban center.

Seroprevalence of Chikungunya virus and living conditions in Feira de Santana, Bahia-Brazil

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya is an arbovirus, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which emerged in the Americas in 2013 and spread rapidly to almost every country on this continent. In Brazil, where the first cases were detected in 2014, it currently has reached all regions of this country and more than 900,000 cases were reported. The clinical spectrum of chikungunya ranges from an acute self-limiting form to disabling chronic forms. The purpose of this study was to estimate the seroprevalence of chikungunya infection in a large Brazilian city and investigate the association between viral circulation and living condition.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted a population-based ecological study in selected Sentinel Areas (SA) through household interviews and a serologic survey in 2016/2017. The sample was of 1,981 individuals randomly selected. The CHIKV seroprevalence was 22.1% (17.1 IgG, 2.3 IgM, and 1.4 IgG and IgM) and varied between SA from 2.0% to 70.5%. The seroprevalence was significantly lower in SA with high living conditions compared to SA with low living condition. There was a positive association between CHIKV seroprevalence and population density (r = 0.2389; p = 0.02033).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The seroprevalence in this city was 2.6 times lower than the 57% observed in a study conducted in the epicentre of the CHIKV epidemic of this same urban centre. So, the herd immunity in this general population, after four years of circulation of this agent is relatively low. It indicates that CHIKV transmission may persist in that city, either in endemic form or in the form of a new epidemic, because the vector infestation is persistent. Besides, the significantly lower seroprevalences in SA of higher Living Condition suggest that beyond the surveillance of the disease, vector control and specific actions of basic sanitation, the reduction of the incidence of this infection also depends on the improvement of the general living conditions of the population.

Modelling the interdependent relationships among epidemic antecedents using fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches

With the high incidence of the dengue epidemic in developing countries, it is crucial to understand its dynamics from a holistic perspective. This paper analyzes different types of antecedents from a cybernetics perspective using a structural modelling approach. The novelty of this paper is twofold. First, it analyzes antecedents that may be social, institutional, environmental, or economic in nature. Since this type of study has not been done in the context of the dengue epidemic modelling, this paper offers a fresh perspective on this topic. Second, the paper pioneers the use of fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches for the modelling of epidemic antecedents. As such, the paper has provided an avenue for the cross-fertilization of knowledge between scholars working in soft computing and epidemiological modelling domains.

Social and environmental risk factors for dengue in Delhi city: A retrospective study

Global urbanization is leading to an inexorable spread of several major diseases that need to be stemmed. Dengue is one of these major diseases spreading in cities today, with its principal mosquito vector superbly adapted to the urban environment. Current mosquito control strategies are proving inadequate, especially in the face of such urbanisation and novel, evidence-based targeted approaches are needed. Through combined epidemiological and entomological approaches, we aimed to identify a novel sanitation strategy to alleviate the burden of dengue through how the dengue virus spreads through the community. We combined surveillance case mapping, prospective serological studies, year-round mosquito surveys, socio-economic and Knowledge Attitudes and Practices surveys across Delhi. We identified lack of access to tap water (≤98%) as an important risk factor for dengue virus IgG sero-positivity (adjusted Odds Ratio 4.69, 95% C.I. 2.06–10.67) and not poverty per se. Wealthier districts had a higher dengue burden despite lower mosquito densities than the Intermediary income communities (adjusted Odds Ratio 2.92, 95% C.I. 1.26–6.72). This probably reflects dengue being introduced by people travelling from poorer areas to work in wealthier houses. These poorer, high density areas, where temperatures are also warmer, also had dengue cases during the winter. Control strategies based on improved access to a reliable supply of tap water plus focal intervention in intra-urban heat islands prior to the dengue season could not only lead to a reduction in mosquito abundance but also eliminate the reservoir of dengue virus clearly circulating at low levels in winter in socio-economically disadvantaged areas.

Identifying disease hotspots and individual risk factors for dengue can enable targeted intervention strategies. We conducted combined serological, entomological and socio-economic surveys across 18 areas within Delhi, taken from the total 1280 colonies (i.e. the administrative units of reference in Delhi) for which we classified their socio-economic typology. We additionally performed a Knowledge, Attitudes, Practices survey at a household level within the most socially disadvantaged sub-districts. Finally, we mapped all the winter dengue cases to 250 m x 250 m units along with their winter mean temperatures. We found that access to tap water was an important risk factor for exposure to dengue virus (DENV) and this was confirmed even within the socially disadvantaged sub-districts. The Wealthy colonies had a high burden of DENV infection despite low mosquito densities, likely linked to their connectedness through daily human mobility. The winter burden of dengue occurred majoritarily in the socio-economically disadvantaged colonies, which also have higher mean temperatures and urban heat islands. Improved access to tap water could lead to a reduction in dengue, not only for those directly affected but for the general population. Targeted intervention through mosquito control in winter in the socially disadvantaged areas could offer a rational strategy for optimising control efforts.

Malnutrition, illness, poverty, and infant growth: A test of a syndemic hypothesis in Nuñoa, Peru

The concept of syndemics provides an important framework for understanding the complex interactions of biological and social conditions. Its use in public health and epidemiological research has increased substantially in the past ten years. Many syndemic analyses rely on the use of a sum score and subsequently fail to demonstrate biological interaction, leading some scholars to question the utility of the syndemic approach. Here, we utilize data from 86 mother/infant pairs from the rural district of Nuñoa, Peru to test a potential syndemic relationship among infection, malnutrition and infant growth. Between 2014 and 2015, surveys were conducted to assess household wealth, sanitation, dietary diversity, and reported illness, while anthropometric measures of mothers and infants were conducted to assess nutritional status via height-for-age and weight-for-height z-scores. Ethnographic insight was used in the selection of key economic variables including the development of an agricultural wealth index. We then assessed whether this constellation of health outcomes met the criteria for a syndemic by performing a quantitative analysis in which we tested for (1) an association between economic marginalization and high-risk environments; (2) the concentration of malnutrition, poor growth, and infection; and (3) biological interaction among these health outcomes. We found that economic measures were associated with pathogenic and nutritional risk, and that these in turn were associated with infectious disease, nutritional status, and growth. However, we did not find evidence that the proposed syndemic met criteria (2) or (3). We conclude that, despite being both socially and biologically plausible, a syndemic of malnutrition, poor growth, and infection did not exist in this context. This analysis moves syndemic research forward by demonstrating that such hypotheses are falsifiable, thus presenting a process by which they may be tested and lending support to the use of syndemic theory as an effective analytic framework.

Do socioeconomic factors drive Aedes mosquito vectors and their arboviral diseases? A systematic review of dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika Virus

As the threat of arboviral diseases continues to escalate worldwide, the question of, "What types of human communities are at the greatest risk of infection?" persists as a key gap in the existing knowledge of arboviral diseases transmission dynamics. Here, we comprehensively review the existing literature on the socioeconomic drivers of the most common Aedes mosquito-borne diseases and Aedes mosquito presence/abundance. We reviewed a total of 182 studies on dengue viruses (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), yellow fever virus (YFVV), Zika virus (ZIKV), and presence of Aedes mosquito vectors. In general, associations between socioeconomic conditions and both Aedes-borne diseases and Aedes mosquitoes are highly variable and often location-specific. Although 50% to 60% of studies found greater presence or prevalence of disease or vectors in areas with lower socioeconomic status, approximately half of the remaining studies found either positive or null associations. We discuss the possible causes of this lack of conclusiveness as well as the implications it holds for future research and prevention efforts.

Spatiotemporal distribution and socioeconomic disparities of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in two Latin American cities from 2007 to 2017

OBJECTIVE

To assess the presence, pattern and magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities on dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Latin America, accounting for their spatiotemporal distribution.

METHODS

Using longitudinal surveillance data (reported arboviruses) from Fortaleza, Brazil and Medellin, Colombia (2007-2017), we fit Bayesian hierarchical models with structured random effects to estimate: (i) spatiotemporally adjusted incidence rates; (ii) Relative Concentration Index and Absolute Concentration Index of inequality; (iii) temporal trends in RCIs; and (iv) socioeconomic-specific estimates of disease distribution. The spatial analysis was conducted at the neighbourhood level (urban settings). The socioeconomic measures were the median monthly household income (MMHI) for Brazil and the Socio-Economic Strata index (SES) in Colombia.

RESULTS

There were 281 426 notified arboviral cases in Fortaleza and 40 887 in Medellin. We observed greater concentration of dengue among residents of low socioeconomic neighbourhoods in both cities: Relative Concentration Index = -0.12 (95% CI = -0.13, -0.10) in Fortaleza and Relative Concentration Index = -0.04 (95% CI = -0.05, -0.03) in Medellin. The magnitude of inequalities varied over time across sites and was larger during outbreaks. We identified a non-monotonic association between disease rates and socioeconomic measures, especially for chikungunya, that changed over time. The Relative Concentration Index and Absolute Concentration Index showed few if any inequalities for Zika. The socioeconomic-specific model showed increased disease rates at MMHI below US$400 in Brazil and at SES-index below level four, in Colombia.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide robust quantitative estimates of socioeconomic inequalities in arboviruses for two Latin American cities. Our findings could inform policymaking by identifying spatial hotspots for arboviruses and targeting strategies to decrease disparities at the local level.

Dengue Seroprevalence and Seroconversion in Urban and Rural Populations in Northeastern Thailand and Southern Laos

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world. The detection of clinical cases enables us to measure the incidence of dengue infection, whereas serological surveys give insights into the prevalence of infection. This study aimed to determine dengue seroprevalence and seroconversion rates in northeastern Thailand and southern Laos and to assess any association of mosquito control methods and socioeconomic factors with dengue virus (DENV) infection. Cross-sectional seroprevalence surveys were performed in May and November 2019 on the same individuals. Blood samples were collected from one adult and one child, when possible, in each of 720 randomly selected households from two urban and two rural sites in both northeastern Thailand and southern Laos. IgG antibodies against DENV were detected in serum using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit. Overall, 1071 individuals participated in the study. The seroprevalence rate was high (91.5%) across all 8 study sites. Only age and province were associated with seroprevalence rates. There were 33 seroconversions during the period from May to November, of which seven reported fever. More than half of the seroconversions occurred in the rural areas and in Laos. Dengue seroconversion was significantly associated with young age (<15 years old), female gender, province, and duration of living in the current residence. No socioeconomic factors or mosquito control methods were found to be associated with seroprevalence or seroconversion. Notably, however, the province with most seroconversions had lower diurnal temperature ranges than elsewhere. In conclusion, our study has highlighted the homogeneity of dengue exposure across a wide range of settings and most notably those from rural and urban areas. Dengue can no longer be considered to be solely an urban disease nor necessarily one linked to poverty.

Epidemiologic and spatiotemporal trends of Zika Virus disease during the 2016 epidemic in Puerto Rico

Background

After Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, laboratory-based surveillance for arboviral diseases in Puerto Rico was adapted to include ZIKV disease.

Methods and findings

Suspected cases of arboviral disease reported to Puerto Rico Department of Health were tested for evidence of infection with Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses by RT-PCR and IgM ELISA. To describe spatiotemporal trends among confirmed ZIKV disease cases, we analyzed the relationship between municipality-level socio-demographic, climatic, and spatial factors, and both time to detection of the first ZIKV disease case and the midpoint of the outbreak. During November 2015–December 2016, a total of 71,618 suspected arboviral disease cases were reported, of which 39,717 (55.5%; 1.1 cases per 100 residents) tested positive for ZIKV infection. The epidemic peaked in August 2016, when 71.5% of arboviral disease cases reported weekly tested positive for ZIKV infection. Incidence of ZIKV disease was highest among 20–29-year-olds (1.6 cases per 100 residents), and most (62.3%) cases were female. The most frequently reported symptoms were rash (83.0%), headache (64.6%), and myalgia (63.3%). Few patients were hospitalized (1.2%), and 13 (<0.1%) died. Early detection of ZIKV disease cases was associated with increased population size (log hazard ratio [HR]: -0.22 [95% confidence interval -0.29, -0.14]), eastern longitude (log HR: -1.04 [-1.17, -0.91]), and proximity to a city (spline estimated degrees of freedom [edf] = 2.0). Earlier midpoints of the outbreak were associated with northern latitude (log HR: -0.30 [-0.32, -0.29]), eastern longitude (spline edf = 6.5), and higher mean monthly temperature (log HR: -0.04 [-0.05, -0.03]). Higher incidence of ZIKV disease was associated with lower mean precipitation, but not socioeconomic factors.

Conclusions

During the ZIKV epidemic in Puerto Rico, 1% of residents were reported to public health authorities and had laboratory evidence of ZIKV disease. Transmission was first detected in urban areas of eastern Puerto Rico, where transmission also peaked earlier. These trends suggest that ZIKV was first introduced to Puerto Rico in the east before disseminating throughout the island.

During epidemics of Zika virus disease in the Americas in 2015 and 2016, assessment of transmission dynamics was limited by inconsistent laboratory testing of patients with suspected Zika virus disease. This limitation was further complicated by co-circulation of dengue and chikungunya viruses, which cause illnesses clinically similar to Zika virus disease. In Puerto Rico, all reported suspect cases of arboviral disease were tested for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya virus infection throughout the epidemic, which allowed for fine-scale analysis of epidemiologic and spatiotemporal trends. In total, 39,717 cases of Zika virus disease were detected, or roughly 1% of all residents of Puerto Rico. Young adults and females were most affected. Disease was mostly mild, as only 1% of cases were hospitalized. Thirteen patients with Zika virus disease died, most of whom had Guillain-Barré syndrome or severe underlying illnesses. Early detection of Zika virus disease cases was associated with more populated areas of eastern Puerto Rico, where early detection of peak case numbers also occurred, particularly in warmer areas. These trends suggest that, in contrast to prior epidemics of dengue and chikungunya that started in the San Juan metropolitan region, the Zika virus epidemic appears to have begun in eastern Puerto Rico.

Machine learning and dengue forecasting: Comparing random forests and artificial neural networks for predicting dengue burden at national and sub-national scales in Colombia

The robust estimate and forecast capability of random forests (RF) has been widely recognized, however this ensemble machine learning method has not been widely used in mosquito-borne disease forecasting. In this study, two sets of RF models were developed at the national (pooled department-level data) and department level in Colombia to predict weekly dengue cases for 12-weeks ahead. A pooled national model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) was also developed and used as a comparator to the RF models. The various predictors included historic dengue cases, satellite-derived estimates for vegetation, precipitation, and air temperature, as well as population counts, income inequality, and education. Our RF model trained on the pooled national data was more accurate for department-specific weekly dengue cases estimation compared to a local model trained only on the department's data. Additionally, the forecast errors of the national RF model were smaller to those of the national pooled ANN model and were increased with the forecast horizon increasing from one-week-ahead (mean absolute error, MAE: 9.32) to 12-weeks ahead (MAE: 24.56). There was considerable variation in the relative importance of predictors dependent on forecast horizon. The environmental and meteorological predictors were relatively important for short-term dengue forecast horizons while socio-demographic predictors were relevant for longer-term forecast horizons. This study demonstrates the potential of RF in dengue forecasting with a feasible approach of using a national pooled model to forecast at finer spatial scales. Furthermore, including sociodemographic predictors is likely to be helpful in capturing longer-term dengue trends.

Towards a better integration of social sciences in arbovirus research and decision-making: an experience from scientific collaboration between Cuban and Quebec institutions

In 2017, the Institute of Tropical Medicine Pedro Kourí, University of Montreal Public Health Research Institute, and McGill University joined efforts to provide scenarios for scientific exchange and knowledge dissemination about the social science contribution on arboviral research. This commentary describes the scientific collaboration between Cuban and Canadian (Quebec) institutions, illustrating the need and opportunities to facilitate research and effective decision-making processes for arboviral prevention and control, going beyond traditional biomedical aspects. We organized a set of scientific activities within three international events conducted in Cuba between 2017 and 2018. Given the collaborating institutions' expertise and the knowledge gaps in arboviral research, we selected three main thematic areas: social determinants and equity, community-based interventions and use of evidence for decision-making. The partnership shows that interdisciplinary collaboration and the use and integration of quantitative and qualitative methods from the social sciences is essential to face the current challenges in arbovirus research.